International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP)
September 1996
Eastern European Export Performance during the Transition
Nathan Sheets and Simona Boata
Abstract:
During the past decade, Eastern European exports have undergone a deep transformation, as communist bloc trading relationships have collapsed and trade with the West has increased. The extent of this geographical re-orientation has generally exceeded the predictions of equilibrium models developed by Hamilton and Winters (1992) and Collins and Rodrik (1991), suggesting the prospect for increased export activity among the transition economies as aggregate demand in these countries strengthens and payment systems mature. Significant changes in the product composition of Eastern European exports have accompanied the geographical reorientation. Exports of manufacturing goods to former communist countries have declined sharply, but exports to the EC across an array of goods -- including heavy machinery -- have grown robustly. Evidence suggests that the observed changes in export composition reflect the redirection of physical goods through price competition and the emergence of market-determined comparative advantage.
PDF: Full Paper
Disclaimer: The economic research that is linked from this page represents the views of the authors and does not indicate concurrence either by other members of the Board's staff or by the Board of Governors. The economic research and their conclusions are often preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The Board values having a staff that conducts research on a wide range of economic topics and that explores a diverse array of perspectives on those topics. The resulting conversations in academia, the economic policy community, and the broader public are important to sharpening our collective thinking.