Professional Experience

• • Senior Adviser (Associate/Assistant Director), Research and Statistics

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  • 2007 - present

• • Chief, Macroeconomics and Quantitative Studies

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  • 2003 - 2007

• • Economist

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

  • 2001 - 2003

• • Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  • 1996 - 2003

• • Lecturer

    Johns Hopkins University

  • 2000 - 2001

• • Visiting Assistant Professor

    University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

  • 1998

Publications

• Kiley, Michael T. (2013). "Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Statements, and Uncovered Interest Parity: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-17. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2013). "Monetary Policy Statements, Treasury Yields, and Private Yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2013). "The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2012). "The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-54. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Dokko, Jane, Brian M. Doyle, Michael T. Kiley, Jinill Kim, Shane Sherlund, Jae Sim, and Skander J. Van den Heuvel (2011). "Monetary Policy and the Global Housing Bubble," Economic Policy, vol. 26, no. 66, pp. 233-283.
• Kiley, Michael T., and Jae W. Sim (2011). "Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Framework ," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-27. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T., and Jae W. Sim (2011). "Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy: Policy Considerations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-28. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Boivin, Jean, Michael T. Kiley, and Frederic S. Mishkin (2010). "How has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Boivin, Jean, Michael T. Kiley, and Frederic S. Mishkin (2010). "How has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?" in Friedman, Benjamin M., Michael Woodford eds., Handbook of Monetary Economics, Vol 3. Elsevier, pp. 369-422.
• Boivin, Jean, Michael T. Kiley, and Frederic S. Mishkin (2010). "How has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?" NBER Working Papers 15879. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
• Chung, Hess, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2010). "Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization- Based (EDO) Model of the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2010). "A Comparison of Forecast Performance between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 720-754.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2010). "Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, Or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?" Review of Economics & Statistics, vol. 92, no. 3, pp. 679-683.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2010). "Output Gaps," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-27. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Dokko, Jane, Brian Doyle, Michael T. Kiley, Jinill Kim, Shane Sherlund, Jae Sim, and Skander Van den Heuvel (2009). "Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-49. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2009). "A Comparison of Forecast Performance between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2009). "Comments on 'Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy' by Christopher A. Sims," in Fuhrer, Jeff, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane S. Little and Giovanni P. Olivei eds., Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, pp. 267-280.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2009). "Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2008). "Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 32, no. 8, pp. 2512-2535.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2008). "Estimating the Common Trend Rate of Inflation for Consumer Prices and Consumer Prices Excluding Food and Energy Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2008). "Monetary Policy Actions and Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2007). "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division's Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy: 2006 Version," Finance and Economic Discussion Series 2007-53. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2007). "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division's Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy, 2006 Version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Edge, Rochelle M., Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (2007). "Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2007). "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 39, pp. 101-125.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2007). "Habit Persistence, Non-Separability between Consumption and Leisure, Or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-48. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2007). "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?" International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 173-201.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2006). "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-45. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2004). "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-43. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2004). "Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Journal of Business, vol. 77, no. 4, pp. 909-936.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2004). "The Economic Impact of the Computer Revolution: A Progress Report," in Paganetto, Luigi ed., Knowledge Economy, Information Technologies and Growth. U.K. and Burlington, Vt.: Ashgate, pp. 267-295.
• Suppanz, Hannes, Michael Wise, and Michael Kiley (2004). "Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 398. OECD Economics Department.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2003). "An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 3, no. 1.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2003). "How should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-01. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2003). "How should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?" Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 3, no. 1.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2003). "Why is Inflation Low when Productivity Growth is High?" Economic inquiry, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 392-406.
• Kiley, Michael (2002). "The Lead of Output Over Inflation in Sticky Price Models," Economics Bulletin, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 1-7.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2002). "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 283-298.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2001). "An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-41. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (2001). "Computers and Growth with Frictions: Aggregate and Disaggregate Evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 55, pp. 171-215.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2000). "Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 28-53.
• Kiley, Michael T. (2000). "Stock Prices and Fundamentals in a Production Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-05. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1999). "Computers and Growth with Costs of Adjustment: Will the Future Look Like the Past?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-36. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1999). "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-01. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1999). "The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress," Economic Journal, vol. 109, no. 458, pp. 708-724.
• Kiley, Michael T. (1998). "Monetary Policy Under Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an Application to Price Level and Inflation Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1998). "Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 153-167.
• Kiley, Michael T. (1997). "Efficiency Wages, Nominal Rigidities, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages and Marginal Cost," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-24. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1997). "Efficiency Wages, Nominal Rigidities and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages and Marginal Cost," Economics Letters, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 215-221.
• Kiley, Michael T. (1997). "Staggered Price Setting and Real Rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-46. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1997). "The Supply of Skilled Labor and Skill-Based Technological Progress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-45. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1996). "Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-23. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kiley, Michael T. (1996). "The Lead of Output Over Inflation in Sticky Price Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-33. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Other Activities