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Figure 1: PCE and core PCE inflation
Line chart, January 1960 to March 2023. Units are percent change from the same month one year ago. The two series are the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy (core PCE). Both series track each other very closely. Both PCE and core PCE begin around 1-2% and generally increase at an accelerating rate until peaking at around 11.5% and 10% at the end of 1974. After a sharp decline to around 5% in the following couple years, both series increase rapidly to a peak of 11.5% and 9% respectively in 1980. Both series then decrease over the next decade. Outside of a few deviations, notably a sharp decline by PCE in 2008 to around -2%, both series remain in a range of 0-3% until 2021 when both PCE and core PCE begin to rapidly increase to around 7% and 5.5% respectively. In the final months of the figure both series have pulled back from recent highs, though both remain above the earlier trend.
Note: Percent change in the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) from 12 months ago. Core refers to the price index excluding food and energy. The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The nine shaded recession periods extend from April 1960 through February 1961, December 1969 through November 1970, November 1973 through March 1975, January 1980 through July 1980, July 1981 through November 1982, July 1990 through March 1991, March 2001 through November 2001, December 2007 through June 2009, and February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
Figure 2: Select components of core PCE inflation
Percent
| Period | Housing services | Goods ex. food and energy | Services ex. housing and energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-14 | 2.589188655 | -1.131307868 | 2.388976308 |
| Feb-14 | 2.591639301 | -1.099672908 | 2.266430784 |
| Mar-14 | 2.673544119 | -0.94227675 | 2.345851027 |
| Apr-14 | 2.715341088 | -0.799379826 | 2.473209815 |
| May-14 | 2.732219009 | -0.704615788 | 2.550504099 |
| Jun-14 | 2.745220811 | -0.655136268 | 2.43885816 |
| Jul-14 | 2.852565355 | -0.638175604 | 2.496510077 |
| Aug-14 | 2.796208069 | -0.790134918 | 2.443950799 |
| Sep-14 | 2.845500783 | -0.706813684 | 2.411664065 |
| Oct-14 | 2.866708719 | -0.602160098 | 2.138922741 |
| Nov-14 | 2.891773886 | -0.817749924 | 2.10834785 |
| Dec-14 | 2.801590979 | -0.769776157 | 2.040286412 |
| Jan-15 | 2.854252962 | -0.943577893 | 1.912308051 |
| Feb-15 | 2.932779652 | -0.727401846 | 1.863428364 |
| Mar-15 | 2.946195736 | -0.631452849 | 1.752701258 |
| Apr-15 | 2.981177551 | -0.584575726 | 1.682348695 |
| May-15 | 2.994503397 | -0.581702266 | 1.583959666 |
| Jun-15 | 3.108931632 | -0.828886229 | 1.666003513 |
| Jul-15 | 3.14767676 | -0.95072852 | 1.543963861 |
| Aug-15 | 3.174136803 | -0.895091238 | 1.574157913 |
| Sep-15 | 3.230107324 | -0.799300358 | 1.523466144 |
| Oct-15 | 3.236822989 | -0.976814629 | 1.468752301 |
| Nov-15 | 3.186864885 | -0.789841115 | 1.398295456 |
| Dec-15 | 3.235167064 | -0.789017046 | 1.334515583 |
| Jan-16 | 3.248012138 | -0.622083981 | 1.616798876 |
| Feb-16 | 3.219962272 | -0.631559584 | 1.728131904 |
| Mar-16 | 3.185970925 | -0.750911821 | 1.774061348 |
| Apr-16 | 3.203217148 | -0.651306185 | 1.868853143 |
| May-16 | 3.302140276 | -0.842429874 | 1.975559779 |
| Jun-16 | 3.277462252 | -0.861389886 | 1.994312445 |
| Jul-16 | 3.272620122 | -0.862537006 | 2.136285631 |
| Aug-16 | 3.310735086 | -0.576800706 | 2.200237058 |
| Sep-16 | 3.378186515 | -0.579190159 | 2.158651346 |
| Oct-16 | 3.459745956 | -0.517347567 | 2.342488222 |
| Nov-16 | 3.578104626 | -0.883446675 | 2.365234918 |
| Dec-16 | 3.635917075 | -0.837474408 | 2.442345876 |
| Jan-17 | 3.609364937 | -0.502429783 | 2.433503958 |
| Feb-17 | 3.618926988 | -0.505990641 | 2.501914181 |
| Mar-17 | 3.601148035 | -0.537335557 | 2.182411553 |
| Apr-17 | 3.524054643 | -0.854920416 | 2.320265729 |
| May-17 | 3.431574793 | -0.885630136 | 2.249609898 |
| Jun-17 | 3.414882773 | -0.709959033 | 2.217033042 |
| Jul-17 | 3.393608674 | -0.584849706 | 1.977846359 |
| Aug-17 | 3.461613701 | -0.847510116 | 1.9585636 |
| Sep-17 | 3.372349569 | -1.166159715 | 2.149896343 |
| Oct-17 | 3.36789853 | -0.965784803 | 2.262385863 |
| Nov-17 | 3.306599995 | -0.830172253 | 2.271783862 |
| Dec-17 | 3.357383611 | -0.852847494 | 2.295700666 |
| Jan-18 | 3.380318683 | -0.759519868 | 2.338019204 |
| Feb-18 | 3.301318432 | -0.831067881 | 2.419998428 |
| Mar-18 | 3.371432554 | -0.667536016 | 2.815073618 |
| Apr-18 | 3.460595629 | -0.38139853 | 2.546506773 |
| May-18 | 3.481616372 | -0.129875527 | 2.601905855 |
| Jun-18 | 3.434411559 | -0.386618028 | 2.657697888 |
| Jul-18 | 3.463322927 | -0.506179127 | 2.826433039 |
| Aug-18 | 3.407674788 | -0.732943957 | 2.766908679 |
| Sep-18 | 3.372048172 | -0.538318693 | 2.829151891 |
| Oct-18 | 3.337634262 | -0.570952282 | 2.632385037 |
| Nov-18 | 3.393354751 | -0.346971835 | 2.706276573 |
| Dec-18 | 3.284842 | -0.458345978 | 2.806095953 |
| Jan-19 | 3.25200498 | -0.351385732 | 2.421542161 |
| Feb-19 | 3.353872421 | -0.625397388 | 2.251985527 |
| Mar-19 | 3.383674089 | -0.764750623 | 2.12590466 |
| Apr-19 | 3.422982885 | -0.916572166 | 2.351392652 |
| May-19 | 3.407214983 | -0.89054421 | 2.209102892 |
| Jun-19 | 3.495924765 | -0.469498263 | 2.17364057 |
| Jul-19 | 3.459916315 | -0.490994944 | 2.208337682 |
| Aug-19 | 3.422539894 | -0.079708853 | 2.178453846 |
| Sep-19 | 3.499199828 | -0.250687029 | 1.974624534 |
| Oct-19 | 3.411750114 | -0.322742895 | 2.038665369 |
| Nov-19 | 3.356988024 | -0.5107338 | 1.859791058 |
| Dec-19 | 3.383461738 | -0.441533593 | 1.934804477 |
| Jan-20 | 3.455516277 | -0.753382373 | 2.224015113 |
| Feb-20 | 3.398784746 | -0.385991042 | 2.278248447 |
| Mar-20 | 3.324284887 | -0.579557982 | 2.055529476 |
| Apr-20 | 3.170773318 | -1.232701233 | 1.132479679 |
| May-20 | 3.163669662 | -1.498976539 | 1.30152614 |
| Jun-20 | 2.934405971 | -1.581810749 | 1.430575672 |
| Jul-20 | 2.883383686 | -0.925945367 | 1.495797891 |
| Aug-20 | 2.768446937 | -0.3484796 | 1.641686383 |
| Sep-20 | 2.561308775 | -0.277605443 | 1.896863726 |
| Oct-20 | 2.553154061 | -0.454144065 | 1.800022322 |
| Nov-20 | 2.334890991 | -0.185524846 | 1.749480303 |
| Dec-20 | 2.209391105 | 0.043293243 | 1.893307723 |
| Jan-21 | 2.028001966 | 0.312074982 | 1.999271315 |
| Feb-21 | 2.012892 | 0.013688389 | 2.144541256 |
| Mar-21 | 1.961325749 | 0.513237515 | 2.815665534 |
| Apr-21 | 1.979589908 | 2.36647389 | 3.87574752 |
| May-21 | 2.030556537 | 3.575348743 | 3.979339132 |
| Jun-21 | 2.233992467 | 4.231637696 | 4.091852102 |
| Jul-21 | 2.299849652 | 3.97893443 | 4.298103521 |
| Aug-21 | 2.449895608 | 3.86669335 | 4.323491542 |
| Sep-21 | 2.783245844 | 4.095534349 | 4.165619515 |
| Oct-21 | 3.024467073 | 5.07012208 | 4.311447959 |
| Nov-21 | 3.412296423 | 5.452529306 | 4.925533631 |
| Dec-21 | 3.677420359 | 6.121759689 | 4.918946445 |
| Jan-22 | 4.003356852 | 6.768616322 | 4.800634905 |
| Feb-22 | 4.26577764 | 7.560220669 | 4.706510681 |
| Mar-22 | 4.50954448 | 7.380829805 | 4.610361468 |
| Apr-22 | 4.79113582 | 6.290372832 | 4.470459475 |
| May-22 | 5.123566094 | 5.691826488 | 4.40571292 |
| Jun-22 | 5.555427633 | 5.7315989 | 4.533843998 |
| Jul-22 | 5.951424132 | 5.511225249 | 3.930976284 |
| Aug-22 | 6.406851072 | 5.588682689 | 4.172158655 |
| Sep-22 | 6.817197273 | 5.689887458 | 4.476191348 |
| Oct-22 | 7.057283192 | 4.760133879 | 4.68479438 |
| Nov-22 | 7.322788959 | 4.096021151 | 4.380584229 |
| Dec-22 | 7.737916542 | 3.350771801 | 4.305569654 |
| Jan-23 | 7.988404411 | 2.796672737 | 4.66956599 |
| Feb-23 | 8.241251617 | 2.318798023 | 4.796804181 |
| Mar-23 | 8.297486395 | 2.519470862 | 4.512231823 |
Note: Percent change in select categories of the personal consumption expenditures price index from 12 months ago. The gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession period extends from February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.