Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Figure 1. Era 1: 1950-82
Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Real GDP Growth | Unemployment Rate | Overall PCE Inflation | Core PCE Inflation | Federal Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950:Q1 | 3.77 | 6.40 | -1.43 | NA | NA |
| 1950:Q2 | 7.30 | 5.57 | -0.34 | NA | NA |
| 1950:Q3 | 10.30 | 4.63 | 2.33 | NA | NA |
| 1950:Q4 | 13.37 | 4.23 | 4.24 | NA | NA |
| 1951:Q1 | 10.56 | 3.50 | 7.73 | NA | NA |
| 1951:Q2 | 9.15 | 3.10 | 8.07 | NA | NA |
| 1951:Q3 | 7.25 | 3.17 | 6.00 | NA | NA |
| 1951:Q4 | 5.47 | 3.37 | 5.53 | NA | NA |
| 1952:Q1 | 5.17 | 3.07 | 2.71 | NA | NA |
| 1952:Q2 | 3.60 | 2.97 | 1.87 | NA | NA |
| 1952:Q3 | 2.24 | 3.23 | 2.40 | NA | NA |
| 1952:Q4 | 5.37 | 2.83 | 1.23 | NA | NA |
| 1953:Q1 | 6.19 | 2.70 | 1.18 | NA | NA |
| 1953:Q2 | 6.78 | 2.57 | 1.35 | NA | NA |
| 1953:Q3 | 5.42 | 2.73 | 1.23 | NA | NA |
| 1953:Q4 | 0.52 | 3.70 | 1.51 | NA | NA |
| 1954:Q1 | -1.78 | 5.27 | 1.63 | NA | NA |
| 1954:Q2 | -2.43 | 5.80 | 1.35 | NA | NA |
| 1954:Q3 | -0.77 | 5.97 | 0.47 | NA | 1.03 |
| 1954:Q4 | 2.73 | 5.33 | -0.07 | NA | 0.99 |
| 1955:Q1 | 6.17 | 4.73 | -0.24 | NA | 1.34 |
| 1955:Q2 | 7.78 | 4.40 | -0.01 | NA | 1.50 |
| 1955:Q3 | 8.01 | 4.10 | 0.72 | NA | 1.94 |
| 1955:Q4 | 6.58 | 4.23 | 1.10 | NA | 2.36 |
| 1956:Q1 | 3.22 | 4.03 | 1.18 | NA | 2.48 |
| 1956:Q2 | 2.40 | 4.20 | 1.76 | NA | 2.69 |
| 1956:Q3 | 0.95 | 4.13 | 2.35 | NA | 2.81 |
| 1956:Q4 | 2.00 | 4.13 | 2.67 | NA | 2.93 |
| 1957:Q1 | 3.05 | 3.93 | 3.17 | NA | 2.93 |
| 1957:Q2 | 1.98 | 4.10 | 3.13 | NA | 3.00 |
| 1957:Q3 | 3.07 | 4.23 | 2.97 | NA | 3.23 |
| 1957:Q4 | 0.35 | 4.93 | 2.89 | NA | 3.25 |
| 1958:Q1 | -2.87 | 6.30 | 3.24 | NA | 1.86 |
| 1958:Q2 | -2.02 | 7.37 | 2.77 | NA | 0.94 |
| 1958:Q3 | -0.72 | 7.33 | 2.02 | NA | 1.32 |
| 1958:Q4 | 2.66 | 6.37 | 1.45 | NA | 2.16 |
| 1959:Q1 | 7.42 | 5.83 | 0.90 | NA | 2.57 |
| 1959:Q2 | 9.13 | 5.10 | 1.13 | NA | 3.08 |
| 1959:Q3 | 6.74 | 5.27 | 1.66 | NA | 3.58 |
| 1959:Q4 | 4.59 | 5.60 | 2.26 | NA | 3.99 |
| 1960:Q1 | 4.93 | 5.13 | 1.70 | 2.11 | 3.93 |
| 1960:Q2 | 2.06 | 5.23 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 3.70 |
| 1960:Q3 | 2.48 | 5.53 | 1.58 | 1.67 | 2.94 |
| 1960:Q4 | 0.88 | 6.27 | 1.47 | 1.42 | 2.30 |
| 1961:Q1 | -0.67 | 6.80 | 1.53 | 1.28 | 2.00 |
| 1961:Q2 | 1.56 | 7.00 | 0.99 | 1.22 | 1.73 |
| 1961:Q3 | 3.01 | 6.77 | 0.98 | 1.27 | 1.68 |
| 1961:Q4 | 6.40 | 6.20 | 0.65 | 1.18 | 2.40 |
| 1962:Q1 | 7.57 | 5.63 | 0.89 | 1.38 | 2.46 |
| 1962:Q2 | 6.73 | 5.53 | 1.26 | 1.44 | 2.61 |
| 1962:Q3 | 6.00 | 5.57 | 1.16 | 1.33 | 2.85 |
| 1962:Q4 | 4.31 | 5.53 | 1.37 | 1.28 | 2.92 |
| 1963:Q1 | 3.60 | 5.77 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 2.97 |
| 1963:Q2 | 3.82 | 5.73 | 1.02 | 1.23 | 2.96 |
| 1963:Q3 | 4.82 | 5.50 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 3.33 |
| 1963:Q4 | 5.16 | 5.57 | 1.31 | 1.59 | 3.45 |
| 1964:Q1 | 6.22 | 5.47 | 1.49 | 1.68 | 3.46 |
| 1964:Q2 | 6.18 | 5.20 | 1.55 | 1.60 | 3.49 |
| 1964:Q3 | 5.52 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 1.49 | 3.46 |
| 1964:Q4 | 5.16 | 4.97 | 1.35 | 1.26 | 3.58 |
| 1965:Q1 | 5.48 | 4.90 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 3.97 |
| 1965:Q2 | 5.66 | 4.67 | 1.50 | 1.23 | 4.08 |
| 1965:Q3 | 6.35 | 4.37 | 1.54 | 1.26 | 4.07 |
| 1965:Q4 | 8.46 | 4.10 | 1.51 | 1.34 | 4.17 |
| 1966:Q1 | 8.48 | 3.87 | 1.97 | 1.46 | 4.56 |
| 1966:Q2 | 7.49 | 3.83 | 2.28 | 1.97 | 4.91 |
| 1966:Q3 | 6.04 | 3.77 | 2.68 | 2.49 | 5.41 |
| 1966:Q4 | 4.51 | 3.70 | 3.16 | 3.03 | 5.56 |
| 1967:Q1 | 2.93 | 3.83 | 2.66 | 3.09 | 4.82 |
| 1967:Q2 | 2.64 | 3.83 | 2.32 | 2.94 | 3.99 |
| 1967:Q3 | 2.74 | 3.80 | 2.49 | 3.03 | 3.89 |
| 1967:Q4 | 2.67 | 3.90 | 2.58 | 3.18 | 4.17 |
| 1968:Q1 | 3.85 | 3.73 | 3.37 | 3.78 | 4.79 |
| 1968:Q2 | 5.52 | 3.57 | 3.93 | 4.29 | 5.98 |
| 1968:Q3 | 5.34 | 3.53 | 4.04 | 4.50 | 5.94 |
| 1968:Q4 | 4.96 | 3.40 | 4.30 | 4.67 | 5.92 |
| 1969:Q1 | 4.47 | 3.40 | 4.20 | 4.61 | 6.57 |
| 1969:Q2 | 3.07 | 3.43 | 4.46 | 4.65 | 8.33 |
| 1969:Q3 | 2.95 | 3.57 | 4.65 | 4.69 | 8.98 |
| 1969:Q4 | 2.05 | 3.57 | 4.70 | 4.69 | 8.94 |
| 1970:Q1 | 0.32 | 4.17 | 4.90 | 4.70 | 8.57 |
| 1970:Q2 | 0.16 | 4.77 | 4.72 | 4.63 | 7.88 |
| 1970:Q3 | 0.42 | 5.17 | 4.47 | 4.59 | 6.70 |
| 1970:Q4 | -0.17 | 5.83 | 4.61 | 4.83 | 5.57 |
| 1971:Q1 | 2.70 | 5.93 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 3.86 |
| 1971:Q2 | 3.11 | 5.90 | 4.43 | 5.02 | 4.56 |
| 1971:Q3 | 3.01 | 6.03 | 4.44 | 4.84 | 5.47 |
| 1971:Q4 | 4.37 | 5.93 | 3.74 | 3.97 | 4.75 |
| 1972:Q1 | 3.48 | 5.77 | 3.85 | 3.66 | 3.54 |
| 1972:Q2 | 5.26 | 5.70 | 3.27 | 3.18 | 4.30 |
| 1972:Q3 | 5.38 | 5.57 | 3.17 | 2.99 | 4.74 |
| 1972:Q4 | 6.89 | 5.37 | 3.36 | 3.05 | 5.14 |
| 1973:Q1 | 7.56 | 4.93 | 3.52 | 2.78 | 6.54 |
| 1973:Q2 | 6.32 | 4.93 | 4.91 | 3.48 | 7.82 |
| 1973:Q3 | 4.77 | 4.80 | 5.88 | 4.07 | 10.56 |
| 1973:Q4 | 4.02 | 4.77 | 7.18 | 4.86 | 10.00 |
| 1974:Q1 | 0.64 | 5.13 | 9.05 | 5.93 | 9.32 |
| 1974:Q2 | -0.21 | 5.20 | 10.02 | 7.10 | 11.25 |
| 1974:Q3 | -0.63 | 5.63 | 10.97 | 8.72 | 12.09 |
| 1974:Q4 | -1.95 | 6.60 | 11.51 | 9.84 | 9.35 |
| 1975:Q1 | -2.30 | 8.27 | 10.33 | 10.10 | 6.30 |
| 1975:Q2 | -1.83 | 8.87 | 8.61 | 9.07 | 5.42 |
| 1975:Q3 | 0.80 | 8.47 | 7.73 | 7.63 | 6.16 |
| 1975:Q4 | 2.55 | 8.30 | 6.82 | 6.77 | 5.41 |
| 1976:Q1 | 6.15 | 7.73 | 6.01 | 6.32 | 4.83 |
| 1976:Q2 | 6.17 | 7.57 | 5.60 | 5.98 | 5.20 |
| 1976:Q3 | 4.96 | 7.73 | 5.23 | 6.04 | 5.28 |
| 1976:Q4 | 4.31 | 7.77 | 5.13 | 5.98 | 4.87 |
| 1977:Q1 | 3.23 | 7.50 | 5.86 | 6.15 | 4.66 |
| 1977:Q2 | 4.47 | 7.13 | 6.78 | 6.49 | 5.16 |
| 1977:Q3 | 5.77 | 6.90 | 6.76 | 6.60 | 5.82 |
| 1977:Q4 | 5.01 | 6.67 | 6.60 | 6.48 | 6.51 |
| 1978:Q1 | 4.12 | 6.33 | 6.43 | 6.35 | 6.76 |
| 1978:Q2 | 6.08 | 6.00 | 6.78 | 6.56 | 7.28 |
| 1978:Q3 | 5.25 | 6.03 | 7.05 | 6.61 | 8.10 |
| 1978:Q4 | 6.66 | 5.90 | 7.54 | 6.97 | 9.58 |
| 1979:Q1 | 6.51 | 5.87 | 7.80 | 6.77 | 10.07 |
| 1979:Q2 | 2.66 | 5.70 | 8.52 | 7.26 | 10.18 |
| 1979:Q3 | 2.39 | 5.87 | 9.29 | 7.40 | 10.95 |
| 1979:Q4 | 1.28 | 5.97 | 9.86 | 7.71 | 13.58 |
| 1980:Q1 | 1.42 | 6.30 | 11.07 | 8.86 | 15.05 |
| 1980:Q2 | -0.78 | 7.33 | 10.76 | 8.90 | 12.69 |
| 1980:Q3 | -1.62 | 7.67 | 10.60 | 9.30 | 9.84 |
| 1980:Q4 | -0.04 | 7.40 | 10.66 | 9.68 | 15.85 |
| 1981:Q1 | 1.60 | 7.43 | 10.22 | 9.43 | 16.57 |
| 1981:Q2 | 2.97 | 7.40 | 9.39 | 9.06 | 17.78 |
| 1981:Q3 | 4.33 | 7.40 | 8.66 | 8.65 | 17.58 |
| 1981:Q4 | 1.30 | 8.23 | 7.66 | 7.96 | 13.59 |
| 1982:Q1 | -2.19 | 8.83 | 6.27 | 7.16 | 14.23 |
| 1982:Q2 | -1.01 | 9.43 | 5.52 | 6.59 | 14.51 |
| 1982:Q3 | -2.56 | 9.90 | 5.45 | 6.34 | 11.01 |
| 1982:Q4 | -1.44 | 10.67 | 5.01 | 5.94 | 9.29 |
Note: Unemployment and federal funds data are quarterly averages; overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are the four−quarter change in the PCE price index; core PCE is the four−quarter change in the PCE price index less food and energy; real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is the four−quarter change in the level of real GDP; federal funds data start in July 1954; core PCE data start in January 1960; all data extend through 1982:Q4. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 1953:Q2-1954:Q2, 1957:Q3-1958:Q2, 1960:Q2-1961:Q1, 1969:Q4-1970:Q4, 1973:Q4-1975:Q1, 1980:Q1-1980:Q3, and 1981:Q3-1982:Q4.
Source: For overall PCE, core PCE, and real GDP growth, the Bureau of Economic Analysis; for the unemployment rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for the federal funds rate, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; all series retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED.
Figure 2. Eras 2 and 3: 1983-2009 and 2010-present
Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Real GDP Growth | Unemployment Rate | Overall PCE Inflation | Core PCE Inflation | Federal Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983:Q1 | 1.43 | 10.37 | 4.55 | 5.78 | 8.65 |
| 1983:Q2 | 3.27 | 10.13 | 4.50 | 5.17 | 8.80 |
| 1983:Q3 | 5.74 | 9.37 | 4.22 | 5.08 | 9.46 |
| 1983:Q4 | 7.90 | 8.53 | 3.77 | 4.47 | 9.43 |
| 1984:Q1 | 8.58 | 7.87 | 4.03 | 4.16 | 9.69 |
| 1984:Q2 | 8.00 | 7.43 | 4.08 | 4.57 | 10.56 |
| 1984:Q3 | 6.90 | 7.43 | 3.53 | 3.98 | 11.39 |
| 1984:Q4 | 5.58 | 7.30 | 3.48 | 3.89 | 9.27 |
| 1985:Q1 | 4.56 | 7.23 | 3.58 | 4.25 | 8.48 |
| 1985:Q2 | 3.68 | 7.30 | 3.42 | 3.94 | 7.92 |
| 1985:Q3 | 4.26 | 7.20 | 3.43 | 4.03 | 7.90 |
| 1985:Q4 | 4.18 | 7.03 | 3.52 | 4.03 | 8.10 |
| 1986:Q1 | 4.15 | 7.03 | 3.04 | 3.74 | 7.83 |
| 1986:Q2 | 3.70 | 7.17 | 2.10 | 3.56 | 6.92 |
| 1986:Q3 | 3.12 | 6.97 | 1.84 | 3.21 | 6.21 |
| 1986:Q4 | 2.91 | 6.83 | 1.75 | 3.31 | 6.27 |
| 1987:Q1 | 2.72 | 6.60 | 1.98 | 2.84 | 6.22 |
| 1987:Q2 | 3.36 | 6.27 | 3.07 | 3.13 | 6.65 |
| 1987:Q3 | 3.27 | 6.00 | 3.50 | 3.34 | 6.84 |
| 1987:Q4 | 4.48 | 5.83 | 3.77 | 3.55 | 6.92 |
| 1988:Q1 | 4.24 | 5.70 | 3.61 | 3.90 | 6.66 |
| 1988:Q2 | 4.48 | 5.47 | 3.76 | 4.15 | 7.16 |
| 1988:Q3 | 4.19 | 5.47 | 4.05 | 4.42 | 7.98 |
| 1988:Q4 | 3.80 | 5.33 | 4.20 | 4.52 | 8.47 |
| 1989:Q1 | 4.32 | 5.20 | 4.57 | 4.65 | 9.44 |
| 1989:Q2 | 3.75 | 5.23 | 4.82 | 4.34 | 9.73 |
| 1989:Q3 | 3.91 | 5.23 | 4.16 | 3.92 | 9.08 |
| 1989:Q4 | 2.74 | 5.37 | 3.93 | 3.71 | 8.61 |
| 1990:Q1 | 2.82 | 5.30 | 4.24 | 3.77 | 8.25 |
| 1990:Q2 | 2.41 | 5.33 | 3.78 | 3.99 | 8.24 |
| 1990:Q3 | 1.73 | 5.70 | 4.49 | 4.26 | 8.16 |
| 1990:Q4 | 0.60 | 6.13 | 5.04 | 4.18 | 7.74 |
| 1991:Q1 | -0.95 | 6.60 | 4.09 | 3.91 | 6.43 |
| 1991:Q2 | -0.54 | 6.83 | 3.71 | 3.55 | 5.86 |
| 1991:Q3 | -0.10 | 6.87 | 3.11 | 3.44 | 5.64 |
| 1991:Q4 | 1.17 | 7.10 | 2.50 | 3.39 | 4.82 |
| 1992:Q1 | 2.86 | 7.37 | 2.60 | 3.26 | 4.02 |
| 1992:Q2 | 3.17 | 7.60 | 2.72 | 3.20 | 3.77 |
| 1992:Q3 | 3.67 | 7.63 | 2.68 | 2.88 | 3.26 |
| 1992:Q4 | 4.38 | 7.37 | 2.65 | 2.82 | 3.04 |
| 1993:Q1 | 3.32 | 7.13 | 2.62 | 2.75 | 3.04 |
| 1993:Q2 | 2.81 | 7.07 | 2.63 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| 1993:Q3 | 2.29 | 6.80 | 2.42 | 2.77 | 3.06 |
| 1993:Q4 | 2.61 | 6.63 | 2.30 | 2.55 | 2.99 |
| 1994:Q1 | 3.43 | 6.57 | 2.06 | 2.31 | 3.21 |
| 1994:Q2 | 4.23 | 6.20 | 1.94 | 2.22 | 3.94 |
| 1994:Q3 | 4.34 | 6.00 | 2.23 | 2.22 | 4.49 |
| 1994:Q4 | 4.12 | 5.63 | 2.12 | 2.21 | 5.17 |
| 1995:Q1 | 3.48 | 5.47 | 2.25 | 2.28 | 5.81 |
| 1995:Q2 | 2.40 | 5.67 | 2.28 | 2.20 | 6.02 |
| 1995:Q3 | 2.67 | 5.67 | 1.96 | 2.12 | 5.80 |
| 1995:Q4 | 2.20 | 5.57 | 1.93 | 2.11 | 5.72 |
| 1996:Q1 | 2.60 | 5.53 | 2.00 | 1.98 | 5.36 |
| 1996:Q2 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 2.09 | 1.86 | 5.24 |
| 1996:Q3 | 4.05 | 5.27 | 2.11 | 1.84 | 5.31 |
| 1996:Q4 | 4.42 | 5.33 | 2.35 | 1.91 | 5.28 |
| 1997:Q1 | 4.31 | 5.23 | 2.24 | 1.91 | 5.28 |
| 1997:Q2 | 4.31 | 5.00 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 5.52 |
| 1997:Q3 | 4.67 | 4.87 | 1.65 | 1.73 | 5.53 |
| 1997:Q4 | 4.49 | 4.67 | 1.28 | 1.47 | 5.51 |
| 1998:Q1 | 4.86 | 4.63 | 0.84 | 1.37 | 5.52 |
| 1998:Q2 | 4.10 | 4.40 | 0.77 | 1.16 | 5.50 |
| 1998:Q3 | 4.10 | 4.53 | 0.81 | 1.28 | 5.53 |
| 1998:Q4 | 4.88 | 4.43 | 0.76 | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| 1999:Q1 | 4.82 | 4.30 | 1.02 | 1.31 | 4.73 |
| 1999:Q2 | 4.66 | 4.27 | 1.39 | 1.33 | 4.75 |
| 1999:Q3 | 4.72 | 4.23 | 1.61 | 1.32 | 5.09 |
| 1999:Q4 | 4.81 | 4.07 | 1.94 | 1.45 | 5.31 |
| 2000:Q1 | 4.20 | 4.03 | 2.53 | 1.68 | 5.68 |
| 2000:Q2 | 5.30 | 3.93 | 2.42 | 1.67 | 6.27 |
| 2000:Q3 | 4.08 | 4.00 | 2.52 | 1.78 | 6.52 |
| 2000:Q4 | 2.97 | 3.90 | 2.48 | 1.81 | 6.47 |
| 2001:Q1 | 2.31 | 4.23 | 2.32 | 1.84 | 5.59 |
| 2001:Q2 | 1.06 | 4.40 | 2.34 | 1.90 | 4.33 |
| 2001:Q3 | 0.50 | 4.83 | 1.77 | 1.72 | 3.50 |
| 2001:Q4 | 0.15 | 5.50 | 1.27 | 1.74 | 2.13 |
| 2002:Q1 | 1.32 | 5.70 | 0.78 | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| 2002:Q2 | 1.34 | 5.83 | 1.07 | 1.65 | 1.75 |
| 2002:Q3 | 2.21 | 5.73 | 1.51 | 1.88 | 1.74 |
| 2002:Q4 | 2.09 | 5.87 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 1.44 |
| 2003:Q1 | 1.77 | 5.87 | 2.44 | 1.67 | 1.25 |
| 2003:Q2 | 2.03 | 6.13 | 1.69 | 1.39 | 1.25 |
| 2003:Q3 | 3.30 | 6.13 | 1.82 | 1.30 | 1.02 |
| 2003:Q4 | 4.33 | 5.83 | 1.82 | 1.36 | 1.00 |
| 2004:Q1 | 4.30 | 5.70 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 1.00 |
| 2004:Q2 | 4.20 | 5.60 | 2.62 | 2.04 | 1.01 |
| 2004:Q3 | 3.43 | 5.43 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| 2004:Q4 | 3.28 | 5.43 | 2.90 | 2.13 | 1.95 |
| 2005:Q1 | 3.87 | 5.30 | 2.64 | 2.22 | 2.47 |
| 2005:Q2 | 3.56 | 5.10 | 2.55 | 2.09 | 2.94 |
| 2005:Q3 | 3.51 | 4.97 | 3.13 | 2.09 | 3.46 |
| 2005:Q4 | 3.13 | 4.97 | 3.05 | 2.20 | 3.98 |
| 2006:Q1 | 3.35 | 4.73 | 2.99 | 2.06 | 4.46 |
| 2006:Q2 | 3.12 | 4.63 | 3.20 | 2.32 | 4.91 |
| 2006:Q3 | 2.37 | 4.63 | 2.84 | 2.49 | 5.25 |
| 2006:Q4 | 2.59 | 4.43 | 1.87 | 2.26 | 5.25 |
| 2007:Q1 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 2.32 | 2.43 | 5.26 |
| 2007:Q2 | 1.83 | 4.50 | 2.32 | 2.08 | 5.25 |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.22 | 4.67 | 2.16 | 2.03 | 5.07 |
| 2007:Q4 | 1.97 | 4.80 | 3.34 | 2.25 | 4.50 |
| 2008:Q1 | 1.15 | 5.00 | 3.23 | 2.08 | 3.18 |
| 2008:Q2 | 1.09 | 5.33 | 3.46 | 2.19 | 2.09 |
| 2008:Q3 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 3.94 | 2.17 | 1.94 |
| 2008:Q4 | -2.75 | 6.87 | 1.39 | 1.56 | 0.51 |
| 2009:Q1 | -3.29 | 8.27 | -0.06 | 1.09 | 0.18 |
| 2009:Q2 | -3.92 | 9.30 | -0.63 | 1.06 | 0.18 |
| 2009:Q3 | -3.05 | 9.63 | -0.97 | 0.95 | 0.16 |
| 2009:Q4 | 0.18 | 9.93 | 1.32 | 1.53 | 0.12 |
| 2010:Q1 | 1.71 | 9.83 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 0.13 |
| 2010:Q2 | 2.80 | 9.63 | 1.93 | 1.50 | 0.19 |
| 2010:Q3 | 3.18 | 9.47 | 1.41 | 1.28 | 0.19 |
| 2010:Q4 | 2.57 | 9.50 | 1.24 | 0.92 | 0.19 |
| 2011:Q1 | 1.93 | 9.03 | 1.78 | 1.11 | 0.16 |
| 2011:Q2 | 1.72 | 9.07 | 2.66 | 1.47 | 0.09 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.95 | 9.00 | 2.98 | 1.83 | 0.08 |
| 2011:Q4 | 1.61 | 8.63 | 2.71 | 1.92 | 0.07 |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.65 | 8.27 | 2.52 | 2.11 | 0.10 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.36 | 8.20 | 1.76 | 1.94 | 0.15 |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.53 | 8.03 | 1.56 | 1.74 | 0.14 |
| 2012:Q4 | 1.47 | 7.80 | 1.78 | 1.81 | 0.16 |
| 2013:Q1 | 1.57 | 7.73 | 1.45 | 1.54 | 0.14 |
| 2013:Q2 | 1.26 | 7.53 | 1.28 | 1.44 | 0.12 |
| 2013:Q3 | 1.92 | 7.23 | 1.40 | 1.54 | 0.08 |
| 2013:Q4 | 2.61 | 6.93 | 1.25 | 1.58 | 0.09 |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.43 | 6.67 | 1.36 | 1.51 | 0.07 |
| 2014:Q2 | 2.67 | 6.20 | 1.77 | 1.67 | 0.09 |
| 2014:Q3 | 3.12 | 6.07 | 1.63 | 1.66 | 0.09 |
| 2014:Q4 | 2.88 | 5.70 | 1.09 | 1.45 | 0.10 |
| 2015:Q1 | 3.98 | 5.53 | 0.18 | 1.30 | 0.11 |
| 2015:Q2 | 3.35 | 5.43 | 0.20 | 1.26 | 0.12 |
| 2015:Q3 | 2.44 | 5.10 | 0.21 | 1.23 | 0.14 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.90 | 5.03 | 0.25 | 1.20 | 0.16 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.62 | 4.93 | 0.74 | 1.43 | 0.36 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.34 | 4.90 | 0.84 | 1.51 | 0.37 |
| 2016:Q3 | 1.56 | 4.90 | 0.97 | 1.66 | 0.40 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.03 | 4.77 | 1.51 | 1.77 | 0.45 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.10 | 4.60 | 1.99 | 1.77 | 0.70 |
| 2017:Q2 | 2.16 | 4.37 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 0.95 |
| 2017:Q3 | 2.42 | 4.30 | 1.62 | 1.48 | 1.15 |
| 2017:Q4 | 2.80 | 4.13 | 1.83 | 1.66 | 1.20 |
| 2018:Q1 | 2.86 | 4.07 | 1.94 | 1.81 | 1.45 |
| 2018:Q2 | 3.20 | 3.90 | 2.27 | 2.02 | 1.74 |
| 2018:Q3 | 3.13 | 3.80 | 2.24 | 2.04 | 1.92 |
| 2018:Q4 | 2.52 | 3.80 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 2.22 |
| 2019:Q1 | 2.65 | 3.87 | 1.38 | 1.62 | 2.40 |
| 2019:Q2 | 2.29 | 3.63 | 1.41 | 1.54 | 2.40 |
Note: Unemployment and federal funds data are quarterly averages; overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are the four-quarter change in the PCE price index; core PCE is the four-quarter change in the PCE price index less food and energy; real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is the four-quarter change in the level of real GDP; all data extend through 2019:Q2. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 1990:Q3-1991:Q1, 2001:Q1-2001:Q4, and 2007:Q4-2009:Q2.
Source: For overall PCE, core PCE, and real GDP growth, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; for the unemployment rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for the federal funds rate, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; all series retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED.
Figure 3. Real-Time Estimates of r* and u*
Percent
| Period | r* - Neutral Real Rate of Interest | u* - Natural Rate of Unemployment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO | FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO | |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.25 | NA | 1.7 | 5.60 | 5.80 | 5.5 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.25 | 1.2 | NA | 5.60 | NA | NA |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.13 | NA | 1.7 | 5.60 | NA | 5.4 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.00 | 1.4 | NA | 5.60 | 5.80 | NA |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.00 | NA | 1.9 | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.5 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.00 | 1.4 | NA | 5.60 | NA | NA |
| 2013:Q3 | 1.88 | NA | NA | 5.50 | NA | NA |
| 2013:Q4 | 1.75 | 1.4 | NA | 5.50 | 5.60 | NA |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.75 | NA | 1.6 | 5.40 | 5.30 | 5.5 |
| 2014:Q2 | 1.75 | 1.5 | NA | 5.35 | NA | NA |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.75 | NA | 1.5 | 5.35 | NA | 5.5 |
| 2014:Q4 | 1.75 | 1.3 | NA | 5.35 | 5.40 | NA |
| 2015:Q1 | 1.63 | NA | 1.4 | 5.10 | 5.12 | 5.4 |
| 2015:Q2 | 1.63 | 1.2 | NA | 5.10 | NA | NA |
| 2015:Q3 | 1.50 | NA | 1.4 | 5.05 | NA | 5.1 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.50 | 1.1 | NA | 4.90 | 5.00 | NA |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.25 | NA | 1.2 | 4.80 | 4.86 | 4.9 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.00 | 1.0 | NA | 4.80 | NA | NA |
| 2016:Q3 | 0.88 | NA | 0.9 | 4.80 | NA | 4.7 |
| 2016:Q4 | 1.00 | 0.7 | NA | 4.80 | 4.84 | NA |
| 2017:Q1 | 1.00 | NA | 0.8 | 4.70 | 4.74 | 4.7 |
| 2017:Q2 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 4.60 | NA | 4.7 |
| 2017:Q3 | 0.80 | NA | NA | 4.60 | NA | NA |
| 2017:Q4 | 0.80 | 0.8 | NA | 4.60 | 4.63 | NA |
| 2018:Q1 | 0.90 | NA | NA | 4.50 | 4.55 | NA |
| 2018:Q2 | 0.90 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 4.50 | NA | 4.6 |
| 2018:Q3 | 1.00 | NA | 0.8 | 4.50 | NA | 4.6 |
| 2018:Q4 | 0.80 | 0.88 | NA | 4.40 | 4.40 | NA |
| 2019:Q1 | 0.80 | NA | 0.8 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 4.6 |
| 2019:Q2 | 0.50 | 0.65 | NA | 4.20 | NA | NA |
Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2019, and are projections of longer-term normal. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through June 2019, and are projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual and extend through January 2019. For the left panel, the projections are for 10 years in the future; the right panel shows the natural rate projection for the current quarter at the time of the projection. The neutral real interest rate is the 3-month Treasury bill rate projection (CBO) or the federal funds rate projection (FOMC and Blue Chip) minus the source's inflation projection.
Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook) and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED).