2015 Supervisory Scenarios for Annual Stress Tests Required under the
Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing Rules and the Capital Plan Rule
PrintVariables Considered in Scenarios
| Level | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo -sable income growth |
Nominal dispo -sable income growth |
Unemploy -ment rate |
CPI inflation rate | 3-month Treasury rate | 5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mort- gage rate |
Prime rate |
Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index | Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index |
| Q1 2001 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10645.9 | 113.2 | 139.5 | 32.8 |
| Q2 2001 | 2.1 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11407.2 | 115.2 | 138.6 | 34.7 |
| Q3 2001 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 9563.0 | 117.5 | 141.0 | 43.7 |
| Q4 2001 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -4.9 | -4.6 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10707.7 | 119.8 | 135.6 | 35.3 |
| Q1 2002 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 10775.7 | 122.1 | 137.4 | 26.1 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 9384.0 | 125.4 | 135.8 | 28.4 |
| Q3 2002 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 7773.6 | 128.7 | 138.7 | 45.1 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 8343.2 | 131.3 | 142.5 | 42.6 |
| Q1 2003 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 8051.9 | 134.1 | 147.9 | 34.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 9342.4 | 137.0 | 149.2 | 29.1 |
| Q3 2003 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9649.7 | 141.1 | 147.3 | 22.7 |
| Q4 2003 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 10799.6 | 146.0 | 145.7 | 21.1 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 11039.4 | 151.8 | 152.9 | 21.6 |
| Q2 2004 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 11144.6 | 158.0 | 160.4 | 20.0 |
| Q3 2004 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10893.8 | 163.4 | 171.8 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2004 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 11951.5 | 169.4 | 175.8 | 16.6 |
| Q1 2005 | 4.3 | 8.3 | -3.8 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 11637.3 | 177.6 | 175.8 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 11856.7 | 185.0 | 182.3 | 17.7 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 12282.9 | 190.8 | 187.1 | 14.2 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12497.2 | 195.5 | 195.4 | 16.5 |
| Q1 2006 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 13121.6 | 198.7 | 200.0 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2006 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 12808.9 | 197.8 | 209.0 | 23.8 |
| Q3 2006 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 13322.5 | 196.5 | 218.6 | 18.6 |
| Q4 2006 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14215.8 | 196.5 | 217.3 | 12.7 |
| Q1 2007 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14354.0 | 194.0 | 227.1 | 19.6 |
| Q2 2007 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 15163.1 | 189.1 | 236.4 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 15317.8 | 183.6 | 249.1 | 30.8 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 14753.6 | 178.1 | 251.5 | 31.1 |
| Q1 2008 | -2.7 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 13284.1 | 171.2 | 239.9 | 32.2 |
| Q2 2008 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 13016.4 | 163.9 | 223.9 | 24.1 |
| Q3 2008 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -8.9 | -5.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 11826.0 | 157.3 | 233.4 | 46.7 |
| Q4 2008 | -8.2 | -7.7 | 2.6 | -3.2 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9056.7 | 149.2 | 222.5 | 80.9 |
| Q1 2009 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 8044.2 | 143.1 | 208.9 | 56.7 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 9342.8 | 142.9 | 178.5 | 42.3 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -1.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 10812.8 | 144.1 | 154.0 | 31.3 |
| Q4 2009 | 3.9 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 11385.1 | 145.0 | 155.2 | 30.7 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12032.5 | 145.5 | 149.8 | 27.3 |
| Q2 2010 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 10645.8 | 144.4 | 164.5 | 45.8 |
| Q3 2010 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 11814.0 | 141.3 | 166.9 | 32.9 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 13131.5 | 140.0 | 172.7 | 23.5 |
| Q1 2011 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 13908.5 | 138.1 | 179.6 | 29.4 |
| Q2 2011 | 2.9 | 6.0 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13843.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 22.7 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 11676.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 48.0 |
| Q4 2011 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 13019.3 | 137.1 | 188.4 | 45.5 |
| Q1 2012 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 14627.5 | 139.3 | 188.2 | 23.0 |
| Q2 2012 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14100.2 | 142.5 | 189.4 | 26.7 |
| Q3 2012 | 2.5 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 14894.7 | 145.4 | 196.6 | 20.5 |
| Q4 2012 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 14834.9 | 148.9 | 198.3 | 22.7 |
| Q1 2013 | 2.7 | 4.2 | -12.6 | -11.7 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 16396.2 | 153.8 | 203.2 | 19.0 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 16771.3 | 158.7 | 212.4 | 20.5 |
| Q3 2013 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 17718.3 | 162.6 | 222.8 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2013 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 19413.2 | 166.4 | 229.2 | 20.3 |
| Q1 2014 | -2.1 | -0.8 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 19711.2 | 169.7 | 227.6 | 21.4 |
| Q2 2014 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 20568.7 | 170.8 | 233.0 | 17.0 |
| Q3 2014 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 20458.8 | 172.1 | 236.0 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2014 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 20683.7 | 173.2 | 238.9 | 18.1 |
| Q1 2015 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 20926.1 | 174.3 | 241.9 | 18.6 |
| Q2 2015 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 21186.1 | 175.3 | 245.0 | 19.2 |
| Q3 2015 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 21457.4 | 176.4 | 248.1 | 19.6 |
| Q4 2015 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 21739.5 | 177.6 | 251.2 | 19.5 |
| Q1 2016 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 22015.5 | 178.9 | 253.1 | 20.9 |
| Q2 2016 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 22304.2 | 180.2 | 255.0 | 20.7 |
| Q3 2016 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 22598.2 | 181.6 | 256.9 | 21.2 |
| Q4 2016 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 22898.0 | 183.0 | 258.8 | 21.3 |
| Q1 2017 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 23196.2 | 184.3 | 260.8 | 21.7 |
| Q2 2017 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 23497.5 | 185.7 | 262.7 | 21.7 |
| Q3 2017 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 23801.1 | 187.1 | 264.7 | 21.9 |
| Q4 2017 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 24107.6 | 188.5 | 266.7 | 22.0 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2001 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.879 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 106.0 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 125.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.419 |
| Q2 2001 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.847 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 106.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 124.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.408 |
| Q3 2001 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.910 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 106.4 | -4.3 | -1.1 | 119.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.469 |
| Q4 2001 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.890 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 106.8 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 131.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.454 |
| Q1 2002 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.872 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 107.3 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 132.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.425 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.986 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 104.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 105.5 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 121.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.570 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.049 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 104.4 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 118.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| Q1 2003 | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.090 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 105.5 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 118.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.579 |
| Q2 2003 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.150 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 1.653 |
| Q3 2003 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.165 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 102.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 111.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| Q4 2003 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.260 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 103.3 | 4.2 | -0.6 | 107.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.784 |
| Q1 2004 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.229 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 101.4 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 104.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.840 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.218 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 102.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 109.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.813 |
| Q3 2004 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.242 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 102.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 110.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| Q4 2004 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 98.9 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 102.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| Q1 2005 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.297 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 98.6 | 0.8 | -2.7 | 107.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.889 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.210 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 5.3 | -1.2 | 110.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.793 |
| Q3 2005 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.206 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 98.5 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 113.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.770 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 117.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| Q1 2006 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 96.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 117.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| Q2 2006 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 96.6 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 114.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.849 |
| Q3 2006 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.269 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 96.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 118.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| Q4 2006 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.320 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 94.5 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 119.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.959 |
| Q1 2007 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.337 | 14.8 | 3.6 | 93.9 | 4.1 | -0.2 | 117.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.969 |
| Q2 2007 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 91.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 123.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.006 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 90.6 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 115.0 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 2.039 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.460 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 89.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.984 |
| Q1 2008 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.581 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 88.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.986 |
| Q2 2008 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 88.6 | -4.7 | 1.6 | 106.2 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 1.991 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.3 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 91.4 | -4.1 | 3.6 | 105.9 | -6.5 | 5.9 | 1.780 |
| Q4 2008 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 92.2 | -12.5 | -2.2 | 90.8 | -8.6 | 0.6 | 1.462 |
| Q1 2009 | -10.8 | -1.1 | 1.326 | 3.3 | -1.6 | 94.4 | -15.0 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -7.0 | -0.1 | 1.430 |
| Q2 2009 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1.402 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 92.3 | 7.1 | -1.7 | 96.4 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 1.645 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 91.3 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 89.5 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 1.600 |
| Q4 2009 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 90.7 | 7.1 | -1.6 | 93.1 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.617 |
| Q1 2010 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.353 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 89.8 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 93.4 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2010 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.229 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 91.0 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 88.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.495 |
| Q3 2010 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.360 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 88.4 | 5.8 | -1.9 | 83.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.573 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 87.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 81.7 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.539 |
| Q1 2011 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.418 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 86.4 | -6.9 | -0.4 | 82.8 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 1.605 |
| Q2 2011 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 1.452 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 85.3 | -2.7 | -0.4 | 80.6 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 1.607 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.345 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 87.4 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 77.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.562 |
| Q4 2011 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 1.297 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 87.2 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 77.0 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 1.554 |
| Q1 2012 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 1.333 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 86.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 82.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.599 |
| Q2 2012 | -1.0 | 2.4 | 1.267 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 88.0 | -2.2 | -0.7 | 79.8 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.569 |
| Q3 2012 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 1.286 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 86.2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | 77.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.613 |
| Q4 2012 | -1.9 | 2.3 | 1.319 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 85.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 86.6 | -1.3 | 3.9 | 1.626 |
| Q1 2013 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 1.282 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 86.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 94.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.301 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 87.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.521 |
| Q3 2013 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.354 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 86.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 98.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.618 |
| Q4 2013 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.378 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 85.6 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 105.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.657 |
| Q1 2014 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.378 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 86.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 103.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.668 |
| Q2 2014 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.369 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 86.4 | -7.1 | 9.4 | 101.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.711 |
| Q3 2014 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.263 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 86.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 109.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.622 |
| Q4 2014 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.271 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 86.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 107.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.630 |
| Q1 2015 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.262 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 86.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 107.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.628 |
| Q2 2015 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.247 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 86.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 108.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.620 |
| Q3 2015 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.230 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 86.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 109.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| Q4 2015 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.213 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 86.5 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 110.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.599 |
| Q1 2016 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.212 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 85.6 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 110.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.596 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.214 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 84.6 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 110.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.594 |
| Q3 2016 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.218 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 83.7 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 110.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.594 |
| Q4 2016 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.222 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 82.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 109.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.594 |
| Q1 2017 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.228 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 82.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 109.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.597 |
| Q2 2017 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.234 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 82.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 108.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.600 |
| Q3 2017 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.239 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 82.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 108.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.604 |
| Q4 2017 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.244 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 81.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 107.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.607 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Level | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Un- employ- ment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index | Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index |
| Q1 2001 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10645.9 | 113.2 | 139.5 | 32.8 |
| Q2 2001 | 2.1 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11407.2 | 115.2 | 138.6 | 34.7 |
| Q3 2001 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 9563.0 | 117.5 | 141.0 | 43.7 |
| Q4 2001 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -4.9 | -4.6 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10707.7 | 119.8 | 135.6 | 35.3 |
| Q1 2002 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 10775.7 | 122.1 | 137.4 | 26.1 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 9384.0 | 125.4 | 135.8 | 28.4 |
| Q3 2002 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 7773.6 | 128.7 | 138.7 | 45.1 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 8343.2 | 131.3 | 142.5 | 42.6 |
| Q1 2003 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 8051.9 | 134.1 | 147.9 | 34.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 9342.4 | 137.0 | 149.2 | 29.1 |
| Q3 2003 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9649.7 | 141.1 | 147.3 | 22.7 |
| Q4 2003 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 10799.6 | 146.0 | 145.7 | 21.1 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 11039.4 | 151.8 | 152.9 | 21.6 |
| Q2 2004 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 11144.6 | 158.0 | 160.4 | 20.0 |
| Q3 2004 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10893.8 | 163.4 | 171.8 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2004 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 11951.5 | 169.4 | 175.8 | 16.6 |
| Q1 2005 | 4.3 | 8.3 | -3.8 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 11637.3 | 177.6 | 175.8 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 11856.7 | 185.0 | 182.3 | 17.7 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 12282.9 | 190.8 | 187.1 | 14.2 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12497.2 | 195.5 | 195.4 | 16.5 |
| Q1 2006 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 13121.6 | 198.7 | 200.0 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2006 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 12808.9 | 197.8 | 209.0 | 23.8 |
| Q3 2006 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 13322.5 | 196.5 | 218.6 | 18.6 |
| Q4 2006 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14215.8 | 196.5 | 217.3 | 12.7 |
| Q1 2007 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14354.0 | 194.0 | 227.1 | 19.6 |
| Q2 2007 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 15163.1 | 189.1 | 236.4 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 15317.8 | 183.6 | 249.1 | 30.8 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 14753.6 | 178.1 | 251.5 | 31.1 |
| Q1 2008 | -2.7 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 13284.1 | 171.2 | 239.9 | 32.2 |
| Q2 2008 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 13016.4 | 163.9 | 223.9 | 24.1 |
| Q3 2008 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -8.9 | -5.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 11826.0 | 157.3 | 233.4 | 46.7 |
| Q4 2008 | -8.2 | -7.7 | 2.6 | -3.2 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9056.7 | 149.2 | 222.5 | 80.9 |
| Q1 2009 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 8044.2 | 143.1 | 208.9 | 56.7 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 9342.8 | 142.9 | 178.5 | 42.3 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -1.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 10812.8 | 144.1 | 154.0 | 31.3 |
| Q4 2009 | 3.9 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 11385.1 | 145.0 | 155.2 | 30.7 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12032.5 | 145.5 | 149.8 | 27.3 |
| Q2 2010 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 10645.8 | 144.4 | 164.5 | 45.8 |
| Q3 2010 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 11814.0 | 141.3 | 166.9 | 32.9 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 13131.5 | 140.0 | 172.7 | 23.5 |
| Q1 2011 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 13908.5 | 138.1 | 179.6 | 29.4 |
| Q2 2011 | 2.9 | 6.0 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13843.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 22.7 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 11676.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 48.0 |
| Q4 2011 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 13019.3 | 137.1 | 188.4 | 45.5 |
| Q1 2012 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 14627.5 | 139.3 | 188.2 | 23.0 |
| Q2 2012 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14100.2 | 142.5 | 189.4 | 26.7 |
| Q3 2012 | 2.5 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 14894.7 | 145.4 | 196.6 | 20.5 |
| Q4 2012 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 14834.9 | 148.9 | 198.3 | 22.7 |
| Q1 2013 | 2.7 | 4.2 | -12.6 | -11.7 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 16396.2 | 153.8 | 203.2 | 19.0 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 16771.3 | 158.7 | 212.4 | 20.5 |
| Q3 2013 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 17718.3 | 162.6 | 222.8 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2013 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 19413.2 | 166.4 | 229.2 | 20.3 |
| Q1 2014 | -2.1 | -0.8 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 19711.2 | 169.7 | 227.6 | 21.4 |
| Q2 2014 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 20568.7 | 170.8 | 233.0 | 17.0 |
| Q3 2014 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 20458.8 | 172.1 | 236.0 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2014 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 19418.4 | 170.8 | 238.9 | 28.9 |
| Q1 2015 | -1.3 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 18508.7 | 168.0 | 235.3 | 32.9 |
| Q2 2015 | -0.2 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 17689.2 | 164.8 | 228.1 | 33.2 |
| Q3 2015 | 0.2 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 16983.8 | 161.2 | 220.8 | 27.3 |
| Q4 2015 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 16257.8 | 157.7 | 214.8 | 24.9 |
| Q1 2016 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 15737.3 | 154.5 | 207.7 | 24.6 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 15430.8 | 151.7 | 202.9 | 22.8 |
| Q3 2016 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 15188.2 | 150.0 | 199.6 | 21.4 |
| Q4 2016 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 14992.3 | 148.9 | 197.7 | 20.5 |
| Q1 2017 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 14866.4 | 148.6 | 196.6 | 19.8 |
| Q2 2017 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 14791.4 | 148.9 | 196.5 | 19.4 |
| Q3 2017 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 14807.1 | 149.5 | 196.6 | 19.1 |
| Q4 2017 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 15005.9 | 150.3 | 197.1 | 19.2 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2001 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.879 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 106.0 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 125.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.419 |
| Q2 2001 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.847 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 106.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 124.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.408 |
| Q3 2001 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.910 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 106.4 | -4.3 | -1.1 | 119.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.469 |
| Q4 2001 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.890 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 106.8 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 131.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.454 |
| Q1 2002 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.872 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 107.3 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 132.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.425 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.986 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 104.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 105.5 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 121.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.570 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.049 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 104.4 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 118.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| Q1 2003 | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.090 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 105.5 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 118.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.579 |
| Q2 2003 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.150 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 1.653 |
| Q3 2003 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.165 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 102.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 111.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| Q4 2003 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.260 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 103.3 | 4.2 | -0.6 | 107.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.784 |
| Q1 2004 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.229 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 101.4 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 104.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.840 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.218 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 102.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 109.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.813 |
| Q3 2004 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.242 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 102.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 110.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| Q4 2004 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 98.9 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 102.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| Q1 2005 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.297 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 98.6 | 0.8 | -2.7 | 107.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.889 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.210 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 5.3 | -1.2 | 110.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.793 |
| Q3 2005 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.206 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 98.5 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 113.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.770 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 117.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| Q1 2006 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 96.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 117.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| Q2 2006 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 96.6 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 114.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.849 |
| Q3 2006 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.269 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 96.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 118.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| Q4 2006 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.320 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 94.5 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 119.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.959 |
| Q1 2007 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.337 | 14.8 | 3.6 | 93.9 | 4.1 | -0.2 | 117.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.969 |
| Q2 2007 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 91.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 123.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.006 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 90.6 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 115.0 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 2.039 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.460 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 89.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.984 |
| Q1 2008 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.581 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 88.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.986 |
| Q2 2008 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 88.6 | -4.7 | 1.6 | 106.2 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 1.991 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.3 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 91.4 | -4.1 | 3.6 | 105.9 | -6.5 | 5.9 | 1.780 |
| Q4 2008 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 92.2 | -12.5 | -2.2 | 90.8 | -8.6 | 0.6 | 1.462 |
| Q1 2009 | -10.8 | -1.1 | 1.326 | 3.3 | -1.6 | 94.4 | -15.0 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -7.0 | -0.1 | 1.430 |
| Q2 2009 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1.402 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 92.3 | 7.1 | -1.7 | 96.4 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 1.645 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 91.3 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 89.5 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 1.600 |
| Q4 2009 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 90.7 | 7.1 | -1.6 | 93.1 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.617 |
| Q1 2010 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.353 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 89.8 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 93.4 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2010 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.229 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 91.0 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 88.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.495 |
| Q3 2010 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.360 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 88.4 | 5.8 | -1.9 | 83.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.573 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 87.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 81.7 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.539 |
| Q1 2011 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.418 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 86.4 | -6.9 | -0.4 | 82.8 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 1.605 |
| Q2 2011 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 1.452 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 85.3 | -2.7 | -0.4 | 80.6 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 1.607 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.345 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 87.4 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 77.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.562 |
| Q4 2011 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 1.297 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 87.2 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 77.0 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 1.554 |
| Q1 2012 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 1.333 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 86.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 82.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.599 |
| Q2 2012 | -1.0 | 2.4 | 1.267 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 88.0 | -2.2 | -0.7 | 79.8 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.569 |
| Q3 2012 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 1.286 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 86.2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | 77.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.613 |
| Q4 2012 | -1.9 | 2.3 | 1.319 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 85.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 86.6 | -1.3 | 3.9 | 1.626 |
| Q1 2013 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 1.282 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 86.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 94.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.301 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 87.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.521 |
| Q3 2013 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.354 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 86.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 98.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.618 |
| Q4 2013 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.378 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 85.6 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 105.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.657 |
| Q1 2014 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.378 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 86.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 103.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.668 |
| Q2 2014 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.369 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 86.4 | -7.1 | 9.4 | 101.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.711 |
| Q3 2014 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.263 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 86.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 109.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.622 |
| Q4 2014 | -4.1 | -0.4 | 1.265 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 89.3 | -4.6 | -1.6 | 97.6 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.680 |
| Q1 2015 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 1.257 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 89.3 | -6.0 | -1.4 | 97.7 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 1.676 |
| Q2 2015 | -1.7 | -0.4 | 1.243 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 89.0 | -5.0 | -1.6 | 98.4 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 1.668 |
| Q3 2015 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.226 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 88.7 | -3.7 | -1.2 | 99.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.656 |
| Q4 2015 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.210 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 88.2 | -2.5 | -0.7 | 100.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.645 |
| Q1 2016 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.209 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 86.8 | -1.4 | -0.2 | 100.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.641 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.212 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 85.5 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 100.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.638 |
| Q3 2016 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.217 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 84.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 100.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.636 |
| Q4 2016 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.222 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 82.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 100.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.633 |
| Q1 2017 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.229 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 82.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 99.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.634 |
| Q2 2017 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.236 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 81.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 99.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.634 |
| Q3 2017 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.242 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 81.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 99.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.634 |
| Q4 2017 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.248 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 81.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 99.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.635 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Level | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Un- employ- ment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index |
| Q1 2001 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10645.9 | 113.2 | 139.5 | 32.8 |
| Q2 2001 | 2.1 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11407.2 | 115.2 | 138.6 | 34.7 |
| Q3 2001 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 9563.0 | 117.5 | 141.0 | 43.7 |
| Q4 2001 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -4.9 | -4.6 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10707.7 | 119.8 | 135.6 | 35.3 |
| Q1 2002 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 10775.7 | 122.1 | 137.4 | 26.1 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 9384.0 | 125.4 | 135.8 | 28.4 |
| Q3 2002 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 7773.6 | 128.7 | 138.7 | 45.1 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 8343.2 | 131.3 | 142.5 | 42.6 |
| Q1 2003 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 8051.9 | 134.1 | 147.9 | 34.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 9342.4 | 137.0 | 149.2 | 29.1 |
| Q3 2003 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9649.7 | 141.1 | 147.3 | 22.7 |
| Q4 2003 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 10799.6 | 146.0 | 145.7 | 21.1 |
| Q1 2004 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 11039.4 | 151.8 | 152.9 | 21.6 |
| Q2 2004 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 11144.6 | 158.0 | 160.4 | 20.0 |
| Q3 2004 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10893.8 | 163.4 | 171.8 | 19.3 |
| Q4 2004 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 11951.5 | 169.4 | 175.8 | 16.6 |
| Q1 2005 | 4.3 | 8.3 | -3.8 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 11637.3 | 177.6 | 175.8 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 11856.7 | 185.0 | 182.3 | 17.7 |
| Q3 2005 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 12282.9 | 190.8 | 187.1 | 14.2 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12497.2 | 195.5 | 195.4 | 16.5 |
| Q1 2006 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 13121.6 | 198.7 | 200.0 | 14.6 |
| Q2 2006 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 12808.9 | 197.8 | 209.0 | 23.8 |
| Q3 2006 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 13322.5 | 196.5 | 218.6 | 18.6 |
| Q4 2006 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14215.8 | 196.5 | 217.3 | 12.7 |
| Q1 2007 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14354.0 | 194.0 | 227.1 | 19.6 |
| Q2 2007 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 15163.1 | 189.1 | 236.4 | 18.9 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 15317.8 | 183.6 | 249.1 | 30.8 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 14753.6 | 178.1 | 251.5 | 31.1 |
| Q1 2008 | -2.7 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 13284.1 | 171.2 | 239.9 | 32.2 |
| Q2 2008 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 13016.4 | 163.9 | 223.9 | 24.1 |
| Q3 2008 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -8.9 | -5.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 11826.0 | 157.3 | 233.4 | 46.7 |
| Q4 2008 | -8.2 | -7.7 | 2.6 | -3.2 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9056.7 | 149.2 | 222.5 | 80.9 |
| Q1 2009 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 8044.2 | 143.1 | 208.9 | 56.7 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 9342.8 | 142.9 | 178.5 | 42.3 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -1.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 10812.8 | 144.1 | 154.0 | 31.3 |
| Q4 2009 | 3.9 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 11385.1 | 145.0 | 155.2 | 30.7 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12032.5 | 145.5 | 149.8 | 27.3 |
| Q2 2010 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 10645.8 | 144.4 | 164.5 | 45.8 |
| Q3 2010 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 11814.0 | 141.3 | 166.9 | 32.9 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 13131.5 | 140.0 | 172.7 | 23.5 |
| Q1 2011 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 13908.5 | 138.1 | 179.6 | 29.4 |
| Q2 2011 | 2.9 | 6.0 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13843.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 22.7 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 11676.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 48.0 |
| Q4 2011 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 13019.3 | 137.1 | 188.4 | 45.5 |
| Q1 2012 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 14627.5 | 139.3 | 188.2 | 23.0 |
| Q2 2012 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14100.2 | 142.5 | 189.4 | 26.7 |
| Q3 2012 | 2.5 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 14894.7 | 145.4 | 196.6 | 20.5 |
| Q4 2012 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 14834.9 | 148.9 | 198.3 | 22.7 |
| Q1 2013 | 2.7 | 4.2 | -12.6 | -11.7 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 16396.2 | 153.8 | 203.2 | 19.0 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 16771.3 | 158.7 | 212.4 | 20.5 |
| Q3 2013 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 17718.3 | 162.6 | 222.8 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2013 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 19413.2 | 166.4 | 229.2 | 20.3 |
| Q1 2014 | -2.1 | -0.8 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 19711.2 | 169.7 | 227.6 | 21.4 |
| Q2 2014 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 20568.7 | 170.8 | 233.0 | 17.0 |
| Q3 2014 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 20458.8 | 172.1 | 236.0 | 17.0 |
| Q4 2014 | -3.9 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -0.1 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 17133.5 | 169.5 | 238.9 | 79.0 |
| Q1 2015 | -6.1 | -4.7 | -4.4 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 12498.5 | 164.0 | 230.2 | 71.3 |
| Q2 2015 | -3.9 | -2.4 | -3.4 | -2.2 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 10190.1 | 157.6 | 213.6 | 76.9 |
| Q3 2015 | -3.2 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -1.4 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 8770.7 | 150.7 | 195.1 | 68.1 |
| Q4 2015 | -1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -0.7 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 8606.3 | 144.3 | 177.6 | 48.1 |
| Q1 2016 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 10.0 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 9087.3 | 138.4 | 164.4 | 38.4 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 9607.2 | 133.4 | 157.4 | 30.7 |
| Q3 2016 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 10480.7 | 130.4 | 154.4 | 25.5 |
| Q4 2016 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 11521.4 | 128.4 | 154.6 | 21.6 |
| Q1 2017 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 12894.7 | 127.9 | 156.1 | 18.7 |
| Q2 2017 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 9.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 14079.2 | 128.4 | 159.6 | 17.6 |
| Q3 2017 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 9.3 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 15430.3 | 129.5 | 164.0 | 16.4 |
| Q4 2017 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 16487.6 | 131.0 | 169.1 | 16.5 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) | Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth | U.K. inflation | U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2001 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.879 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 106.0 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 125.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.419 |
| Q2 2001 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.847 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 106.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 124.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.408 |
| Q3 2001 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.910 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 106.4 | -4.3 | -1.1 | 119.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.469 |
| Q4 2001 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.890 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 106.8 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 131.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.454 |
| Q1 2002 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.872 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 107.3 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 132.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.425 |
| Q2 2002 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.986 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 104.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 105.5 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 121.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.570 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.049 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 104.4 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 118.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| Q1 2003 | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.090 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 105.5 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 118.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.579 |
| Q2 2003 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.150 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 1.653 |
| Q3 2003 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.165 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 102.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 111.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| Q4 2003 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.260 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 103.3 | 4.2 | -0.6 | 107.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.784 |
| Q1 2004 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.229 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 101.4 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 104.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.840 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.218 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 102.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 109.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.813 |
| Q3 2004 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.242 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 102.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 110.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| Q4 2004 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 98.9 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 102.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| Q1 2005 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.297 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 98.6 | 0.8 | -2.7 | 107.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.889 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.210 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 5.3 | -1.2 | 110.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.793 |
| Q3 2005 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.206 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 98.5 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 113.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.770 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 117.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| Q1 2006 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 96.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 117.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| Q2 2006 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 96.6 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 114.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.849 |
| Q3 2006 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.269 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 96.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 118.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| Q4 2006 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.320 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 94.5 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 119.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.959 |
| Q1 2007 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.337 | 14.8 | 3.6 | 93.9 | 4.1 | -0.2 | 117.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.969 |
| Q2 2007 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 91.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 123.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.006 |
| Q3 2007 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 90.6 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 115.0 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 2.039 |
| Q4 2007 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.460 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 89.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.984 |
| Q1 2008 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.581 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 88.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.986 |
| Q2 2008 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 88.6 | -4.7 | 1.6 | 106.2 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 1.991 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.3 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 91.4 | -4.1 | 3.6 | 105.9 | -6.5 | 5.9 | 1.780 |
| Q4 2008 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 92.2 | -12.5 | -2.2 | 90.8 | -8.6 | 0.6 | 1.462 |
| Q1 2009 | -10.8 | -1.1 | 1.326 | 3.3 | -1.6 | 94.4 | -15.0 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -7.0 | -0.1 | 1.430 |
| Q2 2009 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1.402 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 92.3 | 7.1 | -1.7 | 96.4 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 1.645 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 91.3 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 89.5 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 1.600 |
| Q4 2009 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 90.7 | 7.1 | -1.6 | 93.1 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.617 |
| Q1 2010 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.353 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 89.8 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 93.4 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2010 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.229 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 91.0 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 88.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.495 |
| Q3 2010 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.360 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 88.4 | 5.8 | -1.9 | 83.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.573 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 87.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 81.7 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.539 |
| Q1 2011 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.418 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 86.4 | -6.9 | -0.4 | 82.8 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 1.605 |
| Q2 2011 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 1.452 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 85.3 | -2.7 | -0.4 | 80.6 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 1.607 |
| Q3 2011 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.345 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 87.4 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 77.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.562 |
| Q4 2011 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 1.297 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 87.2 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 77.0 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 1.554 |
| Q1 2012 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 1.333 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 86.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 82.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.599 |
| Q2 2012 | -1.0 | 2.4 | 1.267 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 88.0 | -2.2 | -0.7 | 79.8 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.569 |
| Q3 2012 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 1.286 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 86.2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | 77.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.613 |
| Q4 2012 | -1.9 | 2.3 | 1.319 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 85.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 86.6 | -1.3 | 3.9 | 1.626 |
| Q1 2013 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 1.282 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 86.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 94.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.301 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 87.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.521 |
| Q3 2013 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.354 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 86.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 98.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.618 |
| Q4 2013 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.378 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 85.6 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 105.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.657 |
| Q1 2014 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.378 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 86.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 103.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.668 |
| Q2 2014 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.369 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 86.4 | -7.1 | 9.4 | 101.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.711 |
| Q3 2014 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.263 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 86.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 109.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.622 |
| Q4 2014 | -8.8 | 3.8 | 1.112 | -3.2 | 11.9 | 98.0 | -9.4 | 0.3 | 101.4 | -4.0 | 1.5 | 1.572 |
| Q1 2015 | -6.5 | 0.7 | 1.110 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 97.7 | -10.6 | -2.0 | 101.2 | -4.2 | -0.4 | 1.575 |
| Q2 2015 | -3.6 | -0.7 | 1.103 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 97.5 | -8.5 | -3.3 | 101.7 | -3.2 | -1.3 | 1.571 |
| Q3 2015 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 1.094 | 5.8 | -1.1 | 97.2 | -6.4 | -3.3 | 102.6 | -2.0 | -1.3 | 1.564 |
| Q4 2015 | -0.1 | -1.1 | 1.084 | 6.6 | -1.2 | 96.7 | -4.4 | -2.7 | 103.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 1.558 |
| Q1 2016 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 1.088 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 94.7 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 103.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.559 |
| Q2 2016 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.095 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 92.6 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 103.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.560 |
| Q3 2016 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.105 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 90.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 102.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.559 |
| Q4 2016 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.114 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 89.2 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 102.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.555 |
| Q1 2017 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.125 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 88.4 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 103.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.552 |
| Q2 2017 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.135 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 87.9 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 103.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.552 |
| Q3 2017 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.143 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 87.5 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 103.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.552 |
| Q4 2017 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.152 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 87.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 102.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.552 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
Notes Regarding Scenario Variables
Sources for data through 2014:Q3 (as released through 10/22/2014). The 2014:Q3 values of variables marked with an asterisk (*) are projected.
* U.S. real GDP growth: Percent change in real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* U.S. nominal GDP growth: Percent change in nominal Gross Domestic Product at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* U.S. real disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income divided by the price index for personal consumption expenditures at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* U.S. nominal disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. unemployment rate: Quarterly average of monthly data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. CPI inflation: Percent change in the Consumer Price Index at an annualized rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. 3-month Treasury rate: Quarterly average of 3-month Treasury bill secondary market rate on a discount basis, H.15 Release, Selected Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Board.
U.S. 5-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds, constructed for FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see Lars E. O. Svensson (1995), "Estimating Forward Interest Rates with the Extended Nelson-Siegel Method," Quarterly Review, no. 3, Sveriges Riksbank, pp. 13-26.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, constructed for FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see id.
U.S. BBB corporate yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year BBB-rated corporate bonds, constructed for FRB/U.S. model by Federal Reserve staff using a Nelson-Siegel smoothed yield curve model; see Charles R. Nelson and Andrew F. Siegel (1987), "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, vol. 60, pp. 473-89). Data prior to 1997 is based on the WARGA database. Data after 1997 is based on the Merrill Lynch database.
U.S. mortgage rate: Quarterly average of weekly series for the interest rate of a conventional, conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage, obtained from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
U.S. prime rate: Quarterly average of monthly series, H.15 Release, Selected Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Board.
U.S. Dow Jones Total Stock Market (Float Cap) Index: End of quarter value, Dow Jones.
* U.S. House Price Index: CoreLogic, index level, seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve staff.
* U.S. Commercial Real Estate Price Index: From the Financial Accounts of the United States, Federal Reserve Board (Z.1 release); the series corresponds to the data for price indexes: Commercial Real Estate Price Index (series FL075035503.Q divided by 1000)
U.S. Market Volatility Index (VIX): Chicago Board Options Exchange, converted to quarterly by using the maximum close-of-day value in any quarter.
* Euro area real GDP growth: Staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver, extended back using ECB Area Wide Model dataset (ECB Working Paper series no. 42).
Euro area inflation: Staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Community via Haver.
* Developing Asia real GDP growth: Staff calculations based on Bank of Korea via Haver; Chinese National Bureau of Statistics via CEIC; Indian Central Statistical Organization via CEIC; Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
* Developing Asia inflation: Staff calculations based on Chinese National Bureau of Statistics via CEIC; Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation via Haver; Labour Bureau of India via CEIC; National Statistical Office of Korea via CEIC; Census and Statistic Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
* Japan real GDP growth: Cabinet Office via Haver.
Japan inflation: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications via Haver.
U.K. real GDP growth: Office for National Statistics via Haver.
U.K. inflation: Staff calculations based on Office for National Statistics (uses Retail Price Index to extend series back to 1960) via Haver.
* Exchange rates: Bloomberg.
Last update: October 31, 2014
