en Ayelen Banegas, Sophia Castelo, Ahmet Degerli, Christine Dobridge, and Will Kennedy

]]> FEDS Notes Sharjil Haque and Jessie Jiaxu Wang

Private credit is often described as credit provided outside the banking system. In many cases, this description is accurate: private credit lenders originate loans directly to firms, hold those loans on their balance sheets, and do not rely on deposits in the way banks do. But private credit is not fully separate from banks.]]> FEDS Notes Elena Afanasyeva, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, and Matthew P. Seay

Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), banking supervision and regulation became more stringent for largest banks, particularly systemically important institutions and those with at least $100 billion in consolidated total assets. However, the 2023 stress period following the default of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) highlighted that problems at regional banks, which we define as banks between $10 billion and $100 billion in assets, may also cause broader banking system stress.]]> FEDS Notes Diego Vilán

Emerging market economies, particularly those that depend heavily on commodity exports, have long been characterized by more volatile and disruptive business-cycle dynamics than their advanced-economy counterparts. A large literature has studied the drivers of these fluctuations, including total factor productivity shocks, world interest rate shocks, and terms-of-trade disturbances.]]> FEDS Notes Paul E. Soto, Mason Thieu, and Jeffrey S. Allen

This note presents publicly available indicators that can help researchers and policymakers track the evolution of the generative AI buildout and its potential impact on the economy on a timely basis. We organize the indicators into three categories: capabilities and costs; firm investment and adoption; and productivity and labor.]]> FEDS Notes Trang Hoang, and Eva Van Leemput

In recent years, Vietnam has attracted considerable attention as a potential major beneficiary of the 2018-19 U.S.-China tariff increases, reflecting substantial trade diversion as exports shifted away from China (Alfaro and Chor, 2023; Freund et al., 2024). As shown in the left panel of Figure 1, U.S. imports from China declined sharply after the 2018-19 tariffs, while imports from Vietnam tripled by 2025.]]> FEDS Notes Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, Ritt Keerati, Juan M. Londono, and Fabiola Ravazzolo

The U.S. dollar continues to occupy a central role in the global economy. It remains the most widely used currency in foreign exchange transactions and cross-border payments, the leading currency in official reserve holdings, and the dominant currency of denomination for international debt securities and loans. This dominant position reflects several enduring features of the U.S. economy and financial system, including the size and strength of U.S. economy, the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets, and enduring confidence in U.S. institutions.]]> FEDS Notes Giuseppe Fiori, Colleen Lipa, and Erik Nuenninghoff

The current artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom in the United States provides a powerful boost to imports of high-technology capital goods. The AI buildout bears the hallmarks of an investment-specific technology shock—a process in which rapid technological progress makes each new generation of capital equipment significantly cheaper and more powerful than the last, but where reaping those efficiency gains requires continuous and substantial investment to acquire and deploy the new vintage of capital goods.]]> FEDS Notes Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto

The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. A common finding in the literature is that changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy have sizable effects on economic activity and financial markets in emerging market economies (EMEs).]]> FEDS Notes Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello

The conflict in the Middle East has severely constrained global supplies of oil and natural gas. The conflict is also disrupting the provision of other inputs critical to global supply chains, such as naphtha and fertilizers, leading to lengthier delivery times and surging prices for affected products.]]> FEDS Notes Geng Li

From the era of the Industrial Revolution, industrialized economies were blessed with a number of major technology advancements that profoundly changed production and services in essentially all industries. Because of their universal, far-reaching impacts, such technologies are often referred to as “General Purpose Technologies” (GPT).]]> FEDS Notes Cody Kallen

In 2025, U.S. tariffs rose sharply, contributing to record-high trade and economic policy uncertainty. Part of the motivation for the tariffs announced in April 2025 reflects a desire to spur foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States.]]> FEDS Notes Mary-Frances Styczynski

Retail sweeps emerged in the 1990s as a way for depository institutions (DIs) to reduce the cost of satisfying federally mandated reserve requirements. Retail sweeps grew, even as the cost of satisfying reserve requirements was minimized with the beginning of interest on reserves in 2008.]]> FEDS Notes Phillip J. Monin

Between 2023 and September 2025, large hedge funds' gross U.S. Treasury exposures doubled to $4.0 trillion, comprising $2.4 trillion in long exposure and $1.6 trillion in short exposure. This growth outpaced that of the broader Treasury market, with hedge funds' Treasury securities holdings increasing from about 4.5 percent to about 8.5 percent of total outstanding Treasuries.]]> FEDS Notes Kayleigh Barnes, Alexander Bruce, Simona M. Hannon

The emergence and rapid growth of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services represent a novel financial development in the consumer credit landscape, reflecting evolving payment preferences and changes in point-of-sale financing arrangements. While BNPL providers offer a menu of credit products typically at the point of sale (such as a range of short- and longer-term installment loans in addition to the signature "pay in 4" plans), the nascent literature on BNPL has centered on "pay in 4" products, focusing on user characteristics and usage consequences.]]> FEDS Notes