Presentation Materials (PDF)

Pages 246 to 314 of the Transcript

Appendix 1: Materials used by Messrs. Duca, Haughwout, and Cooper


Material for
FOMC Briefing on Lending and Leverage

John Duca, Andrew Haughwout, and Daniel Cooper
January 24, 2012

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Debt, Leverage and the Recovery of Consumption:
Time Series Evidence

John V. Duca and Anthony Murphy
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Exhibits by J.B. Cooke and David Luttrell

Exhibit 1: Real Per Capita Consumption Weak in Current Cycle

The data are plotted as a curve with a range around 5 prior major business cycle peaks. Units are percentage point deviations of real per capita consumption expenditures from its level at a business cycle peak, running from 12 quarters before a business cycle peak to 15 quarters after a business cycle peak. A range of low and high values across all the business cycles is depicted in a gray range. As shown in the figure, in the earlier business cycles, on average consumption rose up until two quarters before the business cycle peak, then barely changed for a year following the peak. Starting about one year after a peak, consumption typically began rising, increasing roughly 10 percentage points from the peak level 15 quarters after the peak. In the most recent cycle, real per capita consumption fell below the average path three quarters after the 2007Q4 peak and continued declining until 6 quarters after the peak. Although it has recovered some, this measure of consumption has stayed well below the average and the range of the earlier recessions, not even fully recovering from the declines seen in the recession.

Notes: The grey area indicates the range of the last five major recessions (1970, 1974, 1981-82, 1990, and 2001), excluding the very short 1980 recession.

Exhibit 2: Personal Saving Rate Rose in Recent Cycle, Before Ebbing

The data are plotted as a curve with a range around 5 prior major business cycle peaks. Units are percentage point deviations of the personal saving rate from its level at a business cycle peak, running from 12 quarters before a business cycle peak to 15 quarters after a business cycle peak. A range of low and high values across all the business cycles is depicted in a gray range. As shown in the figure, in the earlier business cycles, the personal saving rate on average changed little before and after business cycle peaks, generally moving within a range between 2 percentage points above and 3 percentage points below its level at the business cycle peak. In the most recent cycle, the personal saving rate jumped nearly 4 percentage points above its 2007Q4 peak level and only in 2011q3 did it fall within the range seen in the prior five major business cycles. Nevertheless, in 2011Q3 it was about 2 percentage points above the average seen in those earlier episodes.

Notes: The grey area indicates the range of the last five recessions (1970, 1974, 1981-82, 1990, and 2001, excluding the very short 1980 recession).

Exhibit 3: Consumer Credit Conditions Weak, But Recently Improving

The data are plotted as a curve with a range around 5 prior major business cycle peaks. Units are percentage point deviations of the credit conditions index from its level at a business cycle peak, running from 12 quarters before a business cycle peak to 15 quarters after a business cycle peak. A range of low and high values across all the business cycles is depicted in a gray range. As shown in the figure, in the earlier business cycles, on average the consumer credit conditions index rose a little from 3 years before until 4 quarters before a business cycle peak. It then typically began rising about five quarters after a business cycle, rising nearly 10 percentage points above its prior peak level about 4 years after a peak. In the most recent cycle, the consumer credit conditions index fell from the peak for about nine quarters, until falling nearly 5 percentage points below it 2007Q4 level. It only started recovering some since 10 quarters following that peak, and has nearly recovered its level at that peak.

Notes: The grey area indicates the range of the last five recessions (1970, 1974, 1981-82, 1990, and 2001, excluding the very short 1980 recession).

Exhibit 4: Trends in Saving Reflect More Than Movements in Household Net Wealth

The data are plotted as two curves ranging from 1970 to 2011. Units are the ratio of net worth to income in whole numbers and the saving rate is measured as a percent of disposable personal income. The plot of the net worth to income ratio shows it fluctuating between 4 and 5 until 1996. It then rises to nearly 6 in the late 1990s, falls back to about 5 in the early 2000s. It then rises to 6.5 in the mid-2000s, before falling back to around 5 during the 2008-09 recession, and stating around that level since then. The personal saving rate fluctuated between 8 and 10 percent in the 1970s and early 1980s, before trending down to about 2 percent between 1982 and 2000. It then fluctuated between 1 and 4 percent until 2007Q4 before rising 4 percentage points and fluctuating in a range between 4 and 6 percent since then. The chart shows that the saving rate and wealth-to-income ratio move synchronously, though in opposite directions as theory would predict. But the saving rate is roughly half its level of the 1970s and early 1980s, even though the wealth-to-income ratio is roughly similar.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 5: Components of Household Wealth

The data plotted as three curves ranging from 1970 to 2011. The units are the ratio of three categories of wealth to disposable personal income in whole numbers. One category, measures gross housing assets of households, showing that it fluctuated between 1.2 and 1.7 from 1970 to 2000, before rising to 2.5 by 2005 and then falling back to 1.4 in 2011Q3. Another curve plots illiquid financial assets, the sum of stock, bond, pension, and other illiquid financial assets as a share of disposable income. This ratio generally moves between 2 and 2.6 between 1970 and 1995. It rises to nearly 4 in 1999 and then falls to 3 by 2002. It then rose in the mid-2000s to a peak near 4 before falling during the 2008-9 recession to a level near 3. The third curve plots net liquid assets--the sum of cash-like assets minus household debt--as a share of disposable income. After staying flat at about 0.5 percent of income from 1970 to 1990, it trends down to about -0.1 in the mid-2000s, before edging up to about 0.06 percent in 2011.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 6: Sensitivities of Consumption to Wealth

Estimated $ Change in Annual Total Consumption Per $100 Increase In Wealth
(Marginal Propensity to Consume, mpc)

Net Liquid Assets Illiquid Financial Assets Gross Housing Assets
$13.4 $2.0 $3.6 at peak, $2.1 in 2011Q1

Exhibit 7: Sensitivity of Consumption to Housing Wealth Triples in Late-1990s, Retreats During the Subprime Bust

The data are plotted as a curve ranging from 1973 to 2011. Units are in dollars, showing how much annual consumption will rise in dollars per $100 rise in gross housing assets. The estimated impact was near $0.5 in the early 1970s, and rose to around $1 for most of the late 1970s to early 1990s. It rose sharply in the late 1990s to a height of nearly $3.6 by 2003. As labeled in the chart, most of this rise coincides with the rise of cash-out mortgage refinancing that enabled households to borrow more against their houses when refinancing their mortgages.

Source: "How Financial Innovations and Accelerators Drive U.S. Consumption Booms and Busts," J. Duca, J. Muellbauer, and A. Murphy, Dec. 2011.

Exhibit 8: Consumer Credit Conditions Index Rises Sharply from 1970 to Mid-1990s, and Swings Since the Mid-2000s

The data are plotted as a curve ranging from 1966 to 2011. Units are normalized so that the index has an initial value of zero in 1966 and a maximum value of 1 at its peak in 2007. The index rises from 0 in 1970 to about 0.3 by 1978. As labeled in the chart, this coincides with the rise of installment credit and credit cards in much of the 1970s. It dips some and stays flat until the early 1980s. It rises strongly from about 0.25 to about .75 between 1982 and 1990. As indicated in the chart, this coincided with an era of deposit deregulation and the rise of credit scoring and screening that encouraged consumer lending. The index stopped rising in the 1990s when the new Basel bank capital standards temporarily deterred banks from expanding consumer credit. The index rose moderately between 1992 and 1995, before stabilizing until the mid-2000s, when it rose from about .9 to 1.0 by 2007. It fell back to .9 by late 2009 in the index's largest sized decline before recovering to nearly 1 by the end of 2011.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 9: Changes in Ratio of Consumption-to-Income Tracked Well by Combined Credit and Wealth Effects

The data are plotted as three curves. Units are percentage point deviations for the level of 1995Q1. One line plots the percent deviation of the log of the consumption to non-property income ratio, which rises about 4 percentage points in the late 1990s, and then falls back to being about 2 percentage points above in the 2002-04 period. The ratio then rises to about 5.5 percent between 2005 and 2007, before falling to about (-0.5) percent by early 2009, before rising to its 1995Q1 level by the end of 2010. The estimated impact of changes in credit and wealth effects tracks these movements closely. Also shown is a third curve, the personal saving rate. This moves synchronously with the consumption-to-income ratio, but in an opposite direction as can be expected.

Exhibit 10: Impact of Credit Conditions and Wealth on the Consumption-to-Income Ratio

Estimated % Point Long-Run Effects on Consumption-Income Ratio

Period Change in Log Actual Consumption to-Income Ratio Combined Estimated Equilibrium Credit and Wealth Effects Contributions to Estimated Equilibrium Effect
Consumer Debt + Credit Conditions Index Illiquid Financial Assets Housing Assets & Mortgage Debt Liquid Assets
Housing and Stock Bubbles 1995q1-2006q3 5.5 5.5 1.0 2.9 1.0 0.6
Housing and Financial Crisis 2006q3-2009q2 -6.3 -6.6 -0.7 -2.7 -5.2 2.1
Anemic Recovery Period 2009q2-2010q4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 -1.3
Recent Quarters 2011q1-2011q3 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.1

Note: The estimated equilibrium Consumption/Income is proportional to 0.126 x Credit Conditions Index + 0.020 x Illiquid Assets/Income + 0.134 x (Liquid Assets - Consumer Debt - Mortgage Debt)/Income + Housing MPC x Housing Assets/Income. The housing MPC (marginal propensity to consumer) is time-varying. [In the table, strong emphasis (bold) indicates text highlighted with a red dotted circle in the original document.]

Exhibit 11: Consumer Debt-to-Income Ratio Stabilizes, While Mortgage Ratio Continues Declining, Though Less Rapidly of Late

The data are plotted as two curves. One series, the mortgage-debt-to-disposable income ratio, fluctuated around 40 percent between 1970 and 1985. It shifted up to 60 percent by 1990 and stayed near that level until 1995. It rose to 100 percent by 2005 before falling to nearly 95 percent by 2011. The trends suggest the ratio may fall further, though more slowly in coming quarters. The other plotted series is the consumer-debt-to-income ratio, which oscillated between 1970 and 1980 in a range between 12 and 18 percent. It then rose in the late 1980s peaking around 18 percent, before falling in the early 1990s. It then recovered in the mid-1990s and the rose to nearly 25 percent by 2000, staying near that level until 2008, when it fell to nearly 22 percent by 2011. In recent quarters it has stopped falling and ticked up, suggesting that the consumer credit deleveraging process is nearing an end.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Supplementary Exhibits

Supplementary Exhibit 1: The Consumer Credit Conditions Index Tracks the Rise of Bank Credit Card Ownership Rates

The data are plotted as a mixture of bars and a curve. The bars depict the percent of families owning bank credit cards, which rose from 15 percent in 1970 to about 70 percent by the 1995, rising further to a little over 70 percent in 2001 and staying roughly flat through 2007. The curve is a plot of the consumer credit conditions index for the same selected years, rising from about 0 in 1970 to roughly 1 by 2007. The chart shows that the consumer credit index based on installment loan policies at banks tracks the credit card ownership rate, ostensibly because financial innovations and deregulation have boosted the availability of revolving and installment credit.

Notes: All credit cards generally excludes cards limited to only one particular retailer. Bank cards are those on which households can carry-over balances.

Sources: Durkin (2000), Bertaut and Haliassios (2006) for 1992 data, Bucks, et al., (2007, 2009) for 2001-07, and authors' calculations using Bucks, et al. (2009) figures for bank card ownership in 2004 and 2007.

Supplementary Exhibit 2: Subpar Recovery in Consumer Durables

The data are plotted as a curve with a range around 5 prior major business cycle peaks. Units are percentage point deviations of real per capita consumer durable expenditures from its level at a business cycle peak, running from 12 quarters before a business cycle peak to 15 quarters after a business cycle peak. A range of low and high values across all the business cycles is depicted in a gray range. As shown in the figure, in the earlier business cycles, on average consumer durable purchases rose up until two quarters before the business cycle peak, then edged lower for about year following the peak. Starting about one year after a peak, this component of consumption typically began rising, increasing roughly 20 percentage points from the peak level 15 quarters after the peak.

In the most recent cycle, real per capita consumer durable purchases fell below the average path three quarters after the 2007Q4 peak and continued declining until 6 quarters after the peak. Although it has recovered to its pre-recession peak, this measure of consumption has stayed well below the average and the range of the earlier recessions.

Notes: The grey area indicates the range of the five prior recessions (1970, 1974, 1981-82, 1990, and 2001, excluding the very short 1980 recession).

Supplementary Exhibit 3: Similar Sensitivities of Consumption to Wealth in the U.S., UK and Australia

Estimated $ Change in Annual Total Consumption Per $100 Increase In Wealth
(Marginal Propensity to Consume, mpc)

Net Liquid Assets Illiquid Financial Assets Gross Housing Assets
U.S. 13.4 2.0 Max. of 3.6
UK 11.4 2.2 Max. of 4.3
Australia 15.9 2.2 Max. of 4.9

Notes: U.S. estimates from Duca, Muellbauer and Murphy (2011). UK estimates from Aron, Duca, Muellbauer, Murphy and Murata (2011). Estimates for Australia from Muellbauer and Williams (2011).

Recent Developments in Household Debt

Andrew Haughwout
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

With contributions from
Donghoon Lee, Jonathan McCarthy, Joseph Tracy, Wilbert van der Klaauw and David Yun

Exhibit 1

Top panel
Total Household Debt: Flow of Funds Accounts and FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel

Line chart. Unit is trillions of dollars. The graphic compares the long-run trends in aggregate household debt measures from the Flow of Funds and the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP). The Flow of Funds series begins in 1952 and shows generally increasing levels of household debt until 2008. In that year it begins a sustained decline that continued through 2011:Q3. FRBNY CCP data begins in 1999 and shows a similar pattern, although it is always lower than the Flow of Funds.

Bottom panel
Total Household Debt and Its Composition

Stacked bar chart. Unit is trillions of dollars. The graph shows the components of household debt since 1999, using the FRBNY CCP. Debts secured by residential real estate -- closed end mortgages and home equity lines of credit -- are the dominant household liability, comprising about ¾ of household debt. Mortgage debt was the driving force behind the 1999-2008 increase in household liabilities, rising by $6.7 trillion to nearly $10 trillion. Other forms of household debt increased as well, albeit by much smaller amounts. Mortgage debt began declining in 2008:Q3.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Flow of Funds accounts; FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel.

Notes: Shading represents NBER recessions. Flow of Funds measure includes non-profit sector; FRBNY CCP excludes student loans.

Exhibit 2

Housing Assets, Mortgage Debt, and Owners' Equity Share

Line chart. Unit is trillions of dollars except as noted. The chart shows the aggregate value of owner-occupied real estate, aggregate household mortgage liabilities and the owner's equity share in household real estate, 1999-2011:Q3. Flow of Funds data indicate that the aggregate value of owner-occupied real estate rose sharply from 1999-2006, then began to decline in 2007. Home mortgage liabilities of households rose at the same time, and started to fall somewhat later, in 2008. Owner's equity as a share of residential real estate was roughly constant at around 60% until 2006, when it began a sustained decline that took it to below 40% in 2009. Owner's equity share has hovered around 40% since 2009.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Flow of Funds accounts.

Exhibit 3

Top panel
Combined Negative and Near-negative Equity Rates in 168 Metro Areas

Heatmap of the US, with metropolitan areas shaded to indicate the share of mortgages in negative or near-negative equity in 2011:Q3. Negative and near-negative equity mortgages are somewhat concentrated in metro areas in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada as of 2011:Q3. But rates of negative and near-negative equity in excess of 29% are found in many US metropolitan areas, including Atlanta, Denver, Memphis and Tacoma, Washington.

Bottom panel
Negative Equity Debt Overhang

Bar and line chart shows the aggregate negative equity amount in dollars, and the share of mortgages in negative or near-negative equity from 1999:Q3-2011:Q3. CoreLogic aggregate data indicate that as of 2011:Q3, aggregate mortgage balances in negative equity remain around $700 billion, down from about 800 billion in late 2009 and early 2010. Over the same period, the share of mortgage in negative or near-negative equity has fallen from about 28.5% to 27%.

Source: CoreLogic.

Note: The 2011:Q1 reduction in the aggregate negative equity amount partially reflects a revision to CoreLogic's methodology.

Exhibit 4

Top panel
Sources of Change in Aggregate Mortgage Balances

Line chart breaks down annual changes in mortgage balances into three components, for 2000-2011.

  1. Changes associated with housing transactions other than foreclosures rose from $400 billion in 2001 to about $900 billion in 2006, before falling to $200 billion in 2009-2011.
  2. First-lien amortization, junior lien balance changes and refinance activity's effect on balances was a net positive contributor to balance change at about $200 billion per year from 2003-2007, then fell sharply to negative $200 billion in 2010 and 2011.
  3. Charge-offs resulting from foreclosures were small until 2007, but have reduced mortgage balances by between $300 and $400 billion annually ever since.
Bottom panel
Annual Cash Flows from All Forms of Household Debt

Bar chart combines series 2 above with analogous figures for non-mortgage debt. Total cash flow from household debt averaged over $300 billion from 2002-2007. In 2008 this figure fell to $100 billion and in 2009-2011 households were paying back debts at an average rate of over $150 billion per year.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, annual data.

Note: The plot for 2011 is annualized from data through the second quarter.

Exhibit 5

Top panel
Credit Limit and Balance: Credit Cards and HELOC

Stacked bar chart shows aggregate credit limits and balances for credit cards and HELOCs. Aggregate credit limits on revolving accounts -- credit cards and home equity lines of credit -- rose by over $2 trillion from 1999-2008. At the peak, credit card limits were $3.7 trillion; HELOC limits exceeded $1.3 trillion. In late 2008, credit limits -- especially for credit cards -- began a sustained decline and fell by over $1 trillion. In the last year, credit card limits have stabilized at around $2.7 trillion. HELOC limits are stable around $1.2 trillion. Aggregate credit card and HELOC balances have fallen over the same period, albeit more slowly than limits.

Bottom panel
Total Number of New and Closed Accounts and Inquiries

Line chart shows accounts opened and closed in the previous 12 months, as well as credit bureau inquiries in the past six months, for the period 2000:Q1-2011:Q3. Account closings rose sharply during the financial crisis, but have returned to their earlier levels of around 200 million closings per year. At the peak in 2009:Q3, over 375 million credit accounts had been closed in the previous 12 months. Openings and inquiries fell as closings rose, but in the last year have stabilized at between 155 million and 165 million per year.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel.

Exhibit 6

Change in Debt 2010Q3-2011Q3, by Borrower Characteristics

Four panels show percentage changes in three kinds of debt balances (mortgage/HELOC, auto and credit card) and inquiries for the period 2010:Q3-2011:Q3.

Top-left panel
By Credit Score Quintile

Over the last year, borrowers in lowest 20% of the credit score distribution have seen the largest increase in inquiries for new credit, but have reduced their credit card and mortgage/HELOC balances the most as well. Auto loan balances are increasing for all borrowers except those with the lowest credit scores.

Top-right panel
By Selected States

AZ, CA, FL, NV, OH, MI, TX and rest of US are displayed. Borrowers in states hardest hit by housing cycle - AZ, CA, FL and NV - continue to reduce debts of all types. Single exception is auto debt in Florida, which rose slightly over the last year. Excepting Florida, inquiries are growing more slowly in these states than in balance of US.

Bottom-left panel
By Borrower Age

Younger borrowers reduced their debts, especially mortgage/HELOC and credit cards. Older borrowers are increasing their real estate and auto loan indebtedness, but continue to reduce credit card balances. Inquiries are rising across the age distribution

Bottom-right panel
By Presence of Housing Debt in 2010Q3

Borrowers with housing debt on their credit reports as of 2011Q3:

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel.

Household Deleveraging and Consumption: Evidence using Aggregate and Household-Level Data

Daniel Cooper
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Exhibits by Kevin Todd

Exhibit 1

Top panel
Deleveraging Defined

Deleveraging is not:

Bottom panel
Overview of Presentation

Exhibit 2

Top panel
Growth in Consumption, Income, and Debt

Year-over-year percentage changes in consumption, income, and debt, 2003 through 2006 and the average growth rate for 2003-to-2006. Data are plotted as a bar chart. Units are year-over-year percentage growth rates. The chart displays bars for income growth, consumption growth, and debt growth by year and the average growth rate for these series. Debt growth exceeds 6.0 percent in every year and has an average growth rate of about 8.5 percent. Consumption growth remains roughly constant across all years and averages a little more than 3.0 percent. Income growth fluctuates between 0.6 percent and 4.6 percent, and has an overall average growth rate of just above 3.0 percent--almost exactly matching the average consumption growth rate.

Source: BEA, Flow of Funds.

Note: Income is disposable personal income.

Bottom panel
Debt-to-Income Ratio

Debt to income ratio, first quarter 1995 through the third quarter of 2011. Data are plotted as a line graph. Units are ratio points. Income is disposable personal income. The chart shows a steady upward trend in the debt-to-income ratio starting in the first quarter of 1995, when the ratio was a bit below 0.9, and continuing until just before the recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007. The debt-to-income ratio peaked at around 1.35 and then dropped noticeably at the very beginning of the recession before rebounding slightly and remaining steady at a little less than 1.3 through late 2009. The ratio has declined steadily since late 2009 to a level of 1.2 as of the third quarter of 2011.

Source: BEA, Flow of Funds.

Note: Income is disposable personal income. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 2001:Q1-2001:Q4 and 2007:Q4-2009:Q2.

Exhibit 3
Consumption, Income, and Net Worth

Top panel
Current versus Previous Business Cycles

Consumption, disposable income, and net worth, sixteen quarters before and after business cycle peaks. Data are plotted as line graphs. The chart compares the performance of consumption, disposable income, and net worth of U.S. households before, during, and after the 2007 business cycle peak (solid lines) with the average performance of these three measures during the previous 5 major business cycles, which occurred in 1970, 1974, 1981-82, 1990, and 2001 (dashed lines). The short-lived 1980 recession is excluded from the analysis. Consumption, disposable income and net worth in the prior cycles were relatively flat for roughly two quarters after the business cycle peak but then quickly resumed growing at a very similar rate as they were prior to the peak. In the most recent cycle, disposable income, consumption and net worth were higher relative to their averages in the quarters preceding the business cycle peak. After the peak, disposable income grew for two quarters, then fell noticeably before starting to grow again, but a sluggish pace, about eight quarters after the business cycle peak. Consumption in the most recent cycle has followed a path similar to that of income, although it was relatively flat immediately following the business cycle peak, while income rose. Since the peak consumption has remained somewhat below income, although the gap has been closing slightly in recent quarters. Both series are well below their post-peak averages in prior business cycles. Net worth in the most recent cycle peaked prior to the business cycle peak, and fell by more than 20 percent in the five quarters immediately following the peak. Net worth has rebounded a little since then, but remains very weak even when compared with consumption and income in the current cycle.

Source: BEA, Flow of Funds.

Note: Prior cycles include the 1970, 1974, 1981-82, 1990, and 2001 recessions.

Bottom panel
Consumption versus Net Worth over Time

Consumption-to-income and net worth-to-income ratios, quarterly, from the first quarter of 1980 to the third quarter of 2011. Data are presented as a scatter plot. The log of net worth divided by income is plotted on the x-axis and the log of consumption divided by income is plotted on the y-axis. Units on both axes are logarithmic points. The plot includes a line showing predicted values based on a regression of log consumption-to-income on log net worth-to-income using data from 1996Q1 to 2007Q4. There was a shift in the relationship between consumption-to-income and net worth-to-income around the beginning of 1996. The more recent points are clustered around a flatter sloped line--relative to the pre-1996 data points--indicating that consumption has perhaps become less sensitive to net worth. The plot further shows that the points depicting the relationship between net worth-to-income and consumption-to-income since the second quarter of 2009 are roughly in line with the relationship between these two series from 1996 to 2007.

Source: BEA, Flow of Funds.

Note: Income is disposable personal income.

Exhibit 4
Panel Study of Income Dynamics

Top panel
Key Characteristics
Bottom panel
Selected Summary Statistics
Avg. 2001-07 2007-09
Avg. Net Worth Decline (%)11.115.0
Percent of Households w/ Debt Decline (%)45.347.0
Avg. Debt Repayment ($)74787937

Note: Sample restricted to households 64 or younger who did not move between PSID waves. Average net worth decline results are conditional on households' reporting a net worth decline. Average dollars of debt repayment are conditional on households' reporting a decline in debt, and are in constant 2000 dollars.

Exhibit 5

Top panel
Change in Households' Consumption-to-Income and Debt-to-Income Ratios, 2007 to 2009
Cons. / Y (Tot. Debt) / Y N
Displaced Worker High Debt -0.161 -0.037 18
Low Debt -0.090 -0.114 29
Non-Displaced Worker High Debt -0.025 0.103 709
Low Debt -0.023 0.031 683

Note: Income held fixed at 2007 levels. Tot. Debt is total household debt. Cons. is reported household consumption and includes household spending on health care, housing, insurance, transportation, child care, schooling, recurring automobile costs, utilities, home furnishings, recreation, clothing, and vacations.

Bottom panel
Empirical Specification
$$$$ \mathrm{Equation\ 1}: \Delta C_t = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1\Delta Y_t + \alpha_2\Delta{NW}_t + \alpha_3{age}_t + \alpha_4{age}_t^2 + \alpha_5{age}_t^3 + \alpha_6{famsize}_t + \alpha_7{year}_t + \epsilon_t $$$$

Exhibit 6
Impact of Growth in Income and Net Worth on Consumption

Top panel
Baseline Estimates
All Households
2001-2007 2007-2009
Income Growth 0.10*** 0.11***
Net Worth Growth 0.033*** 0.040***
N 11911 2849

Note: Sample is restricted to households 64 or younger who did not move between PSID waves. Additional controls include a cubic term for the age of the head of household, family size, and year fixed effects. Robust standard errors; *** significant at the 1 percent level. Return to table

Middle panel
Results by Homeownership Status
Owners Renters
2001-2007 2007-2009 2001-2007 2007-2009
Income Growth 0.08*** 0.09*** 0.11*** 0.12***
Net Worth Growth 0.024*** 0.024** 0.050*** 0.073***
N 9973 2515 1377 337

Note: Owners own their home in consecutive PSID waves, while renters are tenants in consecutive waves. Sample is restricted to households 64 or younger who did not move between PSID waves. Additional controls include a cubic term for the age of the head of household, family size, and year fixed effects. Robust standard errors; *** significant at the 1 percent level Return to table, ** significant at the 5 percent level Return to table.

Bottom panel
Results based on Debt Holdings
Above Median Debt Below Median Debt
2001-2007 2007-2009 2001-2007 2007-2009
Income Growth 0.11*** 0.10*** 0.08*** 0.12***
Net Worth Growth 0.018*** 0.028** 0.044*** 0.062***
N 5707 1627 6114 1307

Note: Debt is total household debt and includes both collateralized and noncollateralized debt holdings. Sample is restricted to households 64 or younger who did not move between PSID waves. Additional controls include a cubic term for the age of the head of household, family size, and year fixed effects. Robust standard errors; *** significant at the 1 percent level Return to table, ** significant at the 5 percent level Return to table.

Exhibit 7

Top panel
Household Net Worth and Liabilities

Total debt-to-income ratio and net worth-to-income ratios from the first quarter of 1975 through the third quarter of 2011. Data are presented as a line graph. Time is on the x-axis. Total debt-to-income is on the left axis and net worth-to-income is on the right axis. Units are ratio points. The chart shows that the debt-to-income ratio fluctuated between 0.6 and 0.7 from 1975-to-1985 and then grew steadily to about 1.0 in the first quarter of 2000. The ratio then surged to a high of about 1.35 in the third quarter of 2007. The series then drops and is subsequently mostly flat at around 1.3 during the recent recession and declines persistently in the recession's aftermath, dropping to about 1.2 in the third quarter of 2011. Net-worth-to-income fluctuates more than debt-to-income over the sample horizon, but overall exhibits a similar upward trend through 2007. In particular, net worth-to-income is about 4.4 or 4.5 from 1975 until the first quarter of 1985, before rising to around 4.7 by 1995. The ratio subsequently skyrockets to about 6.0 by late 1999, and then plummets to about 5.0 by 2002 before rising back to about 6.5 in the second quarter of 2007. Net worth-to-income subsequently sank to 4.7 by the first quarter of 2009, and has recovered only a bit to a level of 5.0 by the third quarter of 2011. As of the third quarter of 2011, debt-to-income remains well above net worth-to-income especially by historical standards--historically the two ratios moved together over time.

Source: BEA, Flow of Funds.

Note: Income is disposable personal income. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: 1980:Q1-1980:Q3, 1981:Q3-1982:Q4, 1990:Q3-1991:Q1, 2001:Q1-2001:Q4, and 2007:Q4-2009:Q2.

Bottom panel
Consumption Growth Estimates
Households with Debt Declines
All Households
2001-2007 2007-2009
Income Growth 0.09*** 0.10***
Net Worth Growth 0.040*** 0.036***
Households w/ Debt Decline [DD] -0.024*** -0.027***
Income Growth x DD 0.007 -0.004
Net Worth Growth x DD -0.006 0.018
N 11639 2849

Note: Sample is restricted to households 64 or younger who did not move between PSID waves. Debt Decline [DD] is an indicator variable for households who report a debt decline between consecutive PSID waves. Additional controls include a cubic term for the age of the head of household, family size, and year fixed effects. Robust standard errors; *** significant at the 1 percent level. Return to table

Exhibit 8
Summary


Appendix 2: Materials used by Ms. Yellen


Consensus Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Policy Strategy

January 24, 2012

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

The FOMC's Longer-Run Goals and Policy Strategy

Following careful deliberations at its recent meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reached broad agreement on the following principles regarding its longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. The Committee intends to reaffirm these principles and to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organizational meeting each January.

  1. The FOMC is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decision-making by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.
  2. Inflation, employment, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Moreover, monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity and prices with a lag. Therefore, the Committee's policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.
  3. The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.
  4. The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee's policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. Information about Committee participants' estimates of the longer-run normal rates of output growth and unemployment is published four times per year in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. For example, in the most recent projections, FOMC participants' estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment had a central tendency of 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent, roughly unchanged from last January but substantially higher than the corresponding interval several years earlier.
  5. In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks to mitigate deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal and deviations of employment from the Committee's assessments of its maximum level. These objectives are generally complementary. However, under circumstances in which the Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it follows a balanced approach in promoting them, taking into account the magnitude of the deviations and the potentially different time horizons over which employment and inflation are projected to return to levels judged consistent with its mandate.

Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. Sack


Material for
FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations

Brian Sack
January 24, 2012

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel
(1)

Title: Euro Area Excess Liquidity
Series: Euro area excess reserves plus deposit facility balance at ECB, excluding fine-tuning operation days
Horizon: April 1, 2010 - January 20, 2012
Description: The ECB's recent operations, most notably the 3-year longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO), have provided the euro area with considerable excess euro liquidity.

Source: ECB

Top-right panel
(2)

Title: Maturing European Bank Debt
Series: Maturing longer-term unsecured and secured bank debt by month in 2012 for 16 large banks in the euro area, UK, and Switzerland
Horizon: January 2012 - December 2012
Description: The amount of longer-term bank debt coming due for European banks over 2012 is quite sizable and relatively evenly distributed throughout the year. The liquidity provided by the ECB may aid in helping banks replace those funds.

Source: Dealogic

Middle-left panel
(3)

Title: Dollar Funding Spreads to OIS (3-Month Rates)
Series: Euro Libor rate swapped to dollars spread to OIS, 3-month forward dollar Libor spread to OIS, spot 3-month dollar Libor
Horizon: April 1, 2010 - January 20, 2012
Description: Spreads indicating current and future funding stresses have decreased moderately, but remain somewhat elevated.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Middle-right panel
(4)

Title: Euro Area Sovereign Yields (2-Year Rates)
Series: Spain 2-year yield, Italy 2-year yield
Horizon: April 1, 2010 - January 20, 2012
Description: Shorter-term sovereign debt yields have decreased significantly since December, perhaps in part aided by bank buying of sovereign debt to pledge to the ECB for funding via the 3-year LTRO.

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom-left panel
(5)

Title: ECB Securities Markets Program Weekly Purchase Amounts
Series: ECB Securities Markets Program weekly purchase amounts
Horizon: August 5, 2011 - January 13, 2012
Description: The ECB has maintained a relatively slow pace of sovereign debt purchases in recent weeks.

Source: ECB

Bottom-right panel
(6)

Title: Price of Greek Bond Maturing on 05/20/13
Series: Price of 10-year Greek note issued January 9, 2003 and maturing May 20, 2013, with 4.6% coupon
Horizon: January 1, 2011 - January 20, 2012
Description: Greek debt is currently trading at around 30 cents on the dollar, as negotiations over debt restructuring continue.

Source: Bloomberg

Exhibit 2

Top-left panel
(7)

Title: Equity Prices and Volatility
Series: S&P 500 indexed to 4/1/2010, VIX Index
Horizon: April 1, 2010 - January 20, 2012
Description: Domestic equity prices increased substantially in the intermeeting period, while implied volatility has continued to decrease.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(8)

Title: Correlation of S&P 500 with Euro
Series: 30-day rolling correlation of daily percent changes in S&P 500 index and euro-dollar exchange rate
Horizon: April 1, 2010 - January 20, 2012
Description: The correlation of S&P 500 returns with the euro-dollar exchange rate has decreased off its highs but remains elevated, suggesting that developments in Europe will continue to be an important driver of U.S. asset prices.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(9)

Title: Corporate Bond Spreads to Treasury
Series: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch high-yield bond index spread to Treasury and investment grade index spread to Treasury
Horizon: April 1, 2010 - January 20, 2012
Description: Yield spreads on corporate bonds have turned down following their rise in the second half of last year.

Source: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

Middle-right panel
(10)

Title: Treasury Yields
Series: 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury yields
Horizon: April 1, 2010 - January 20, 2012
Description: Despite the general shift into risky assets, U.S. Treasury yields remained at very low levels and were roughly unchanged over the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom-left panel
(11)

Title: Implied Federal Funds Rate Path
Series: Risk neutral implied federal funds rate path derived from federal funds futures and eurodollar futures
Horizon: January 20, 2012 - January 1, 2015
Description: The expected path of the federal funds rate remains roughly flat through 2013 and only begins to turn gradually higher in 2014. This expected path decreased very slightly in the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Bottom-right panel
(12)

Title: Estimated Effect of SOMA Balance Sheet on Term Premium
Series: Estimated effect of SOMA balance sheet on term premium embedded in 10-year Treasury yield, as estimated by Min Wei and Canlin Li in 2012 model developed at Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Horizon: December 31, 2009 - December 31, 2016
Description: The balance sheet policies of the FOMC appear to be exerting downward pressure on longer-term yields through a term premium effect, as Board staff estimate that the Federal Reserve's asset holdings are keeping the term premium embedded in the 10-year Treasury yield about 65 basis points lower than it would be if the balance sheet were of normal size and composition.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Exhibit 3

Top-left panel
(13)

Title: Probability of Additional Policy Actions
Series: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey additional policy action responses by primary dealers
Horizon: Current meeting & 1 year
Description: Participants placed a high probability of additional easing over the next year, particularly in the form of further asset purchases, guidance on the size of the SOMA portfolio, or guidance on the target federal funds rate. For the current meeting, participants placed a roughly 70 percent probability to a change in rate guidance, and less than 50 percent probability to the other easing options listed here.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey

Top-right panel
(14)

Title: Probability Distribution of First Increase in Federal Funds Target Rate
Series: Average probabilities of first increase in federal funds target rate by half-year, as assessed in Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of primary dealers
Horizon: 2012:H1 to 2016 or later
Description: Dealer survey respondents place sizable odds on policy remaining on hold for a long period, with a 95 percent probability that the first increase will take place after mid-2013. This indicates a shift out in their estimates for this lift-off.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey

Middle-left panel
(15)

Title: SOMA Portfolio Holdings
Series: Actual past SOMA portfolio holdings and median expected future holdings as indicated in the January Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey and November Survey
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - January 1, 2017
Description: Dealer survey respondents have increased their future estimates for SOMA portfolio holdings, as the median forecast now includes an increase in SOMA size.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey

Middle-right panel
(16)

Title: MBS Option-Adjusted Spread to Treasury
Series: FNMA 30-year current coupon MBS option-adjusted spread to Treasury securities, spliced with 3.5% coupon option-adjusted spread to Treasury when current coupon rate is below 3.5%
Horizon: March 1, 2011 - January 20, 2012
Description: The option-adjusted MBS spread to Treasury securities decreased in the intermeeting period.

Source: Barclays Capital

Bottom-left panel
(17)

Title: Annual Treasury Remittances
Series: Actual past annual Federal Reserve remittances to U.S. Treasury and projected future remittances
Horizon: 2002 - 2020
Description: The elevated size of the SOMA portfolio continues to produce a substantial financial return, with a preliminary estimate of a $77 billion remittance to Treasury for 2011. The strong pace of remittance is expected to continue for several years, but this path is dependent on the course of interest rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Bottom-right panel
(18) SOMA Operations Since September 2011 FOMC Meeting

Number of Operations/Transactions Total Amount ($ Billions)
MEP Treasury Purchases 48 162.5
MEP Treasury Sales 23 170.4
MBS Purchases 635 98.1

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Appendix 4: Materials used by Messrs. Engen, Reeve, and Gallin


Material for
Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook

January 24-25, 2012

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Recent Indicators

Top-left panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Period Thousands of employees
January 2007185.00
February 2007141.00
March 2007149.33
April 2007105.00
May 2007122.67
June 200772.67
July 200759.33
August 2007-9.33
September 2007-24.33
October 2007-5.33
November 200759.00
December 200770.00
January 200846.67
February 2008-28.67
March 2008-70.33
April 2008-133.67
May 2008-171.00
June 2008-214.33
July 2008-240.67
August 2008-266.33
September 2008-338.67
October 2008-414.00
November 2008-570.67
December 2008-638.00
January 2009-754.67
February 2009-732.67
March 2009-783.00
April 2009-760.33
May 2009-628.67
June 2009-512.33
July 2009-350.33
August 2009-313.33
September 2009-238.33
October 2009-226.00
November 2009-165.67
December 2009-128.67
January 2010-59.33
February 2010-55.00
March 201027.00
April 2010117.33
May 2010140.33
June 2010114.00
July 201068.67
August 201089.33
September 2010104.00
October 2010120.67
November 2010126.67
December 2010146.00
January 2011129.67
February 2011174.00
March 2011191.33
April 2011240.33
May 2011186.33
June 2011138.33
July 2011115.67
August 2011106.67
September 2011155.00
October 2011142.00
November 2011158.00
December 2011155.33

Note: Three-month moving average.

[Inset:] Unemployment Rate

Percent

2011
Q3 Dec.
9.1 8.5

Top-right panel
Manufacturing IP

Period Index, 2007 = 100
January 200798.24
February 200798.74
March 200799.45
April 2007100.18
May 2007100.03
June 2007100.28
July 2007100.58
August 2007100.10
September 2007100.68
October 2007100.20
November 2007100.62
December 2007100.93
January 2008100.63
February 2008100.15
March 200899.70
April 200898.53
May 200897.98
June 200897.35
July 200896.36
August 200894.99
September 200891.63
October 200891.09
November 200888.88
December 200886.08
January 200983.70
February 200983.81
March 200982.24
April 200981.64
May 200980.63
June 200980.35
July 200981.47
August 200982.25
September 200982.94
October 200982.94
November 200983.63
December 200983.79
January 201084.70
February 201084.81
March 201085.61
April 201086.31
May 201087.26
June 201087.22
July 201087.99
August 201088.07
September 201088.31
October 201088.54
November 201088.68
December 201089.63
January 201190.30
February 201190.47
March 201191.15
April 201190.63
May 201190.78
June 201190.91
July 201191.63
August 201191.81
September 201192.22
October 201192.70
November 201192.39
December 201193.19
[Inset]
Percent change, a.r.
2011:Q35.0
2011:Q43.9
2012:Q1f4.1

f. Staff forecast. Return to table

Middle-left panel
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Billions of chained (2005) dollars

Period Real PCE
January 20079204.56
February 20079208.98
March 20079214.10
April 20079236.74
May 20079249.89
June 20079247.01
July 20079261.82
August 20079292.99
September 20079300.90
October 20079296.09
November 20079313.92
December 20079327.77
January 20089310.62
February 20089273.15
March 20089283.46
April 20089289.26
May 20089287.61
June 20089280.47
July 20089226.37
August 20089209.75
September 20089151.77
October 20089107.47
November 20089084.54
December 20089036.11
January 20099071.52
February 20099042.60
March 20099008.53
April 20098993.07
May 20099002.40
June 20099000.15
July 20099023.47
August 20099104.67
September 20099022.74
October 20099044.64
November 20099044.68
December 20099091.21
January 20109086.77
February 20109119.10
March 20109157.71
April 20109164.70
May 20109192.38
June 20109203.67
July 20109216.76
August 20109254.41
September 20109270.10
October 20109305.50
November 20109334.41
December 20109345.26
January 20119348.61
February 20119382.12
March 20119399.49
April 20119394.21
May 20119395.66
June 20119388.36
July 20119425.12
August 20119411.84
September 20119463.55
October 20119476.31
November 20119494.78
Quarterly averages

Billions of chained (2005) dollars

Period Real PCE
2011:Q19376.74
2011:Q29392.74
2011:Q39433.50
2011:Q4 (staff estimate)9484.88
2012:Q1 (staff estimate)9533.36
[Inset]
Percent change, a.r.
2011:Q3 2011:Q4f 2012:Q1f
Current 1.8 2.2 2.1
Dec. TB 2.1 2.4 2.3

Middle-right panel
Nondefense Capital Goods Ex. Aircraft

Billions of dollars, ratio scale

Period New orders Shipments
March 200743.5742.28
April 200744.9043.44
May 200745.1743.83
June 200745.2444.18
July 200744.8443.90
August 200745.1244.09
September 200745.1544.31
October 200745.0444.69
November 200744.7944.54
December 200745.2444.41
January 200845.6844.31
February 200845.7344.31
March 200845.1644.04
April 200845.5244.17
May 200845.8244.23
June 200846.3544.52
July 200846.2744.58
August 200846.1344.47
September 200845.0844.40
October 200842.9643.69
November 200841.2242.90
December 200839.1441.73
January 200936.8640.10
February 200935.2338.93
March 200934.1637.54
April 200933.8236.87
May 200933.5336.06
June 200934.0635.76
July 200934.9436.08
August 200935.0836.11
September 200935.4036.13
October 200935.5536.03
November 200936.1036.31
December 200936.5036.68
January 201036.8836.99
February 201037.3737.62
March 201038.2238.25
April 201039.0938.91
May 201040.1039.55
June 201041.1240.02
July 201041.5940.45
August 201042.1240.75
September 201042.1441.10
October 201042.5541.31
November 201042.6641.43
December 201043.1641.73
January 201143.4241.91
February 201143.4741.92
March 201143.6042.10
April 201144.2642.29
May 201144.8442.63
June 201144.8142.89
July 201145.0343.55
August 201145.1444.49
September 201145.2844.86
October 201145.1244.98
November 201144.8844.47

Note: Three-month moving average. Weighted sum of new orders and shipments across more than 30 equipment categories, with weights given by the share of total shipments in each category that is purchased for private business investment.

[Inset] E&S Spending
Percent change, a.r.
2011:Q316.2
2011:Q4f3.0
2012:Q1f2.2

Bottom-left panel
Real Federal Government Purchases

Contribution to real GDP growth, p.p.

Period Current Dec. TB
2011:Q1-0.82
2011:Q20.16
2011:Q30.170.15
2011:Q4f-0.82-0.27
2012:Q1f0.110.33

f. Staff forecast. Return to table

Bottom-right panel
Real GDP

Percent change, annual rate

Period Current Dec. TB
2011:Q10.36
2011:Q21.34
2011:Q31.811.92
2011:Q4f2.933.21
2012:Q1f1.572.05

f. Staff forecast. Return to table

Exhibit 2
Medium-term Forecast

Top-left panel
Real GDP

Four-quarter percent change

Period Current June 2011 TB
2010:Q12.172.39
2010:Q23.303.00
2010:Q33.513.25
2010:Q43.142.78
2011:Q12.242.37
2011:Q21.632.43
2011:Q31.462.76
2011:Q41.602.71
2012:Q11.912.97
2012:Q22.033.32
2012:Q32.163.26
2012:Q42.103.50
2013:Q12.223.64
2013:Q22.313.84
2013:Q32.344.03
2013:Q42.364.21

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011:Q4.

Top-right panel
Unemployment Rate

Percent

Period Current June 2011 TB
2010:Q19.809.70
2010:Q29.609.66
2010:Q39.509.59
2010:Q49.609.63
2011:Q19.008.93
2011:Q29.109.02
2011:Q39.109.00
2011:Q48.708.86
2012:Q18.688.79
2012:Q28.688.63
2012:Q38.658.42
2012:Q48.598.13
2013:Q18.517.88
2013:Q28.427.63
2013:Q38.327.38
2013:Q48.237.10

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012:Q1.

Middle-left panel
Factors Restraining Recovery

Middle-right panel
Reserve Bank Inquiries of Their District Business Contacts

Question Percent
Jun. 2011 Jan. 2012
Plan to increase employment 45 41
Low sales growth restraining hiring 42 47

Bottom-left panel
Fiscal Impetus: Federal Government

Period Contribution to real GDP growth, p.p.
20070.24
20081.09
20091.26
20100.54
2011-0.39
2012-0.41
2013-1.10

Note: Staff estimates. Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012.

Bottom-right panel
Real State and Local Government Purchases

Period Contribution to real GDP growth, p.p.
20070.15
2008-0.11
2009-0.13
2010-0.21
2011:H1-0.38
2011:H2-0.14
2012-0.06
20130.08

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012.

Exhibit 3
Some Risks Around the Forecast

Top-left panel
Faster Snapback

Top-right panel
Lost Decade

Middle-left panel
Real GDP

Four-quarter percent change

Period Baseline Faster snapback Lost decade
2010:Q12.172.172.17
2010:Q23.303.303.30
2010:Q33.513.513.51
2010:Q43.143.143.14
2011:Q12.242.242.24
2011:Q21.631.631.63
2011:Q31.461.461.46
2011:Q41.601.601.60
2012:Q11.912.041.91
2012:Q22.032.332.03
2012:Q32.162.682.16
2012:Q42.102.861.88
2013:Q12.223.141.93
2013:Q22.313.311.93
2013:Q32.343.371.80
2013:Q42.363.351.82
2014:Q12.623.401.86
2014:Q22.943.491.92
2014:Q33.313.641.98
2014:Q43.613.752.04
2015:Q13.923.792.09
2015:Q24.173.882.14
2015:Q34.203.732.21
2015:Q44.173.492.27
2016:Q14.033.222.33
2016:Q23.852.892.39
2016:Q33.752.652.46
2016:Q43.692.572.52

Middle-right panel
Unemployment Rate

Percent

Period Baseline Faster snapback Lost decade
2010:Q19.809.809.80
2010:Q29.669.669.66
2010:Q39.529.529.52
2010:Q49.579.579.57
2011:Q18.988.988.98
2011:Q29.069.069.06
2011:Q39.059.059.05
2011:Q48.708.708.70
2012:Q18.688.648.70
2012:Q28.688.578.72
2012:Q38.658.448.71
2012:Q48.598.298.72
2013:Q18.518.078.69
2013:Q28.427.848.69
2013:Q38.327.598.69
2013:Q48.237.368.72
2014:Q18.117.158.70
2014:Q28.016.988.71
2014:Q37.926.848.73
2014:Q47.836.718.78
2015:Q17.666.578.77
2015:Q27.496.458.77
2015:Q37.326.348.76
2015:Q47.166.268.75
2016:Q17.006.238.73
2016:Q26.856.238.69
2016:Q36.696.248.64
2016:Q46.536.248.56

Bottom-left panel
Core PCE Prices

Four-quarter percent change

Period Baseline Faster snapback Lost decade
2010:Q11.741.741.74
2010:Q21.541.541.54
2010:Q31.351.351.35
2010:Q40.960.960.96
2011:Q11.061.061.06
2011:Q21.311.311.31
2011:Q31.631.631.63
2011:Q41.691.691.69
2012:Q11.681.681.68
2012:Q21.481.481.48
2012:Q31.331.341.33
2012:Q41.471.491.47
2013:Q11.451.491.45
2013:Q21.431.501.44
2013:Q31.421.521.42
2013:Q41.421.551.40
2014:Q11.421.591.38
2014:Q21.411.631.36
2014:Q31.411.661.33
2014:Q41.401.691.29
2015:Q11.411.731.26
2015:Q21.411.771.24
2015:Q31.431.821.22
2015:Q41.441.881.20
2016:Q11.461.931.18
2016:Q21.491.971.16
2016:Q31.512.011.14
2016:Q41.532.041.12

Bottom-right panel
Federal Funds Rate

Percent

Period Baseline Faster snapback Lost decade
2010:Q10.130.130.13
2010:Q20.190.190.19
2010:Q30.190.190.19
2010:Q40.190.190.19
2011:Q10.160.160.16
2011:Q20.090.090.09
2011:Q30.080.080.08
2011:Q40.080.080.08
2012:Q10.080.080.08
2012:Q20.100.100.10
2012:Q30.120.120.13
2012:Q40.120.130.13
2013:Q10.120.120.13
2013:Q20.120.130.13
2013:Q30.120.230.13
2013:Q40.120.430.13
2014:Q10.130.640.13
2014:Q20.130.870.13
2014:Q30.181.210.13
2014:Q40.321.590.13
2015:Q10.581.910.13
2015:Q20.932.240.13
2015:Q31.252.510.13
2015:Q41.552.690.13
2016:Q11.812.750.13
2016:Q22.052.760.13
2016:Q32.282.760.13
2016:Q42.502.790.13

Exhibit 4
Inflation Projection

Top-left panel
PCE Prices

Percent change, annual rate

Period Total (12-month) Core (12-month) Core (3-month)
January 20072.132.502.52
February 20072.462.583.25
March 20072.702.442.97
April 20072.532.301.90
May 20072.572.191.44
June 20072.542.141.65
July 20072.392.201.79
August 20072.072.122.00
September 20072.672.212.46
October 20073.202.252.79
November 20073.632.382.83
December 20073.552.462.76
January 20083.552.292.67
February 20083.412.182.45
March 20083.362.322.42
April 20083.462.372.23
May 20083.592.472.59
June 20084.062.522.43
July 20084.442.502.33
August 20084.282.461.99
September 20084.002.351.80
October 20083.172.161.43
November 20081.382.011.03
December 20080.561.770.45
January 20090.421.650.62
February 20090.491.651.01
March 20090.051.521.39
April 2009-0.101.592.01
May 2009-0.391.522.04
June 2009-0.471.472.25
July 2009-0.911.391.52
August 2009-0.531.401.53
September 2009-0.481.411.55
October 20090.361.672.54
November 20091.771.722.32
December 20092.351.751.81
January 20102.441.750.92
February 20102.231.710.95
March 20102.481.781.52
April 20102.341.581.35
May 20102.161.581.51
June 20101.461.471.00
July 20101.601.440.95
August 20101.451.370.71
September 20101.391.230.59
October 20101.290.970.67
November 20101.170.970.70
December 20101.370.930.61
January 20111.491.041.20
February 20111.811.101.51
March 20112.051.041.97
April 20112.361.181.91
May 20112.591.312.36
June 20112.631.422.51
July 20112.781.572.52
August 20112.891.682.17
September 20112.941.651.50
October 20112.661.650.97
November 20112.541.650.59
December 20112.381.821.30

Note: Staff forecast for December.

Top-right panel
PCE Energy Prices

Period Percent change, annual rate
2010:Q113.65
2010:Q2-14.89
2010:Q35.63
2010:Q424.70
2011:Q140.73
2011:Q215.04
2011:Q33.29
2011:Q4-6.79
2012:Q10.80
2012:Q24.89
2012:Q30.69
2012:Q4-0.47
2013:Q1-0.50
2013:Q2-0.90
2013:Q3-0.96
2013:Q4-0.78

Note: 2011:Q4 is an estimate based on monthly data through October. Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012:Q1.

Middle-left panel
Core Nonfuel Import Prices

Period Percent change, annual rate
20102.63
2011:H17.73
2011:H20.75
20120.21
20131.55

Note: 2011:Q4 is an estimate based on monthly data through October. Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012.

Middle-right panel
Inflation Expectations

Michigan, next 5 to 10 years

Period Percent
January 20073.0
February 20072.9
March 20072.9
April 20073.1
May 20073.1
June 20072.9
July 20073.1
August 20072.9
September 20072.9
October 20072.8
November 20072.9
December 20073.1
January 20083.0
February 20083.0
March 20082.9
April 20083.2
May 20083.4
June 20083.4
July 20083.2
August 20083.2
September 20083.0
October 20082.9
November 20082.9
December 20082.6
January 20092.9
February 20093.1
March 20092.6
April 20092.8
May 20092.9
June 20093.0
July 20093.0
August 20092.8
September 20092.8
October 20092.9
November 20093.0
December 20092.7
January 20102.9
February 20102.7
March 20102.7
April 20102.7
May 20102.9
June 20102.8
July 20102.9
August 20102.8
September 20102.7
October 20102.8
November 20102.8
December 20102.8
January 20112.9
February 20112.9
March 20113.2
April 20112.9
May 20112.9
June 20113.0
July 20112.9
August 20112.9
September 20112.9
October 20112.7
November 20112.7
December 20112.7
January 2012p2.8

p. Preliminary. Return to table

Note: Median responses to the Michigan survey.

SPF, next 10 years

Period Percent
2007:Q12.35
2007:Q22.40
2007:Q32.40
2007:Q42.40
2008:Q12.50
2008:Q22.50
2008:Q32.50
2008:Q42.50
2009:Q12.40
2009:Q22.50
2009:Q32.50
2009:Q42.26
2010:Q12.39
2010:Q22.40
2010:Q32.30
2010:Q42.20
2011:Q12.30
2011:Q22.40
2011:Q32.40
2011:Q42.50

Note: The SPF projection is for the PCE price index.

Bottom-left panel
Compensation per Hour*

Period Percent change, Q4/Q4
Average 2005-20073.87
20082.50
20091.80
20101.60
20111.82
20122.34
20132.18

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012.

* Nonfarm business sector. Return to text

Bottom-right panel
PCE Price Projection

(Percent change, Q4/Q4)

2011 2012 2013
1. PCE price index 2.5 1.4 1.3
2. Food 5.0 1.1 1.2
3. Energy 11.7 1.4 -0.9
4. Core PCE 1.7 1.5 1.4

Exhibit 5
European Developments

Top-left panel
Effects of ECB Operations

Period Amount outstanding from refinancing operations
(Billions of euros)
EONIA
(Basis points)
7 January 2011494.5138.0
14 January 2011480.7136.1
21 January 2011477.4782.4
28 January 2011494.83104.0
4 February 2011551.2436.5
11 February 2011477.0692.4
18 February 2011457.9750.4
25 February 2011441.8562.8
4 March 2011446.3438.1
11 March 2011454.2574.7
18 March 2011443.2771.0
25 March 2011431.5363.5
1 April 2011423.7458.8
8 April 2011407.2454.0
15 April 2011417.28114.0
22 April 2011421.51143.4
29 April 2011438.89142.0
6 May 2011457.7759.0
13 May 2011438.13111.0
20 May 2011431.23115.8
27 May 2011437.3192.1
3 June 2011431.9788.6
10 June 2011423.65154.9
17 June 2011444.79133.8
24 June 2011497.1485.8
1 July 2011454.8290.9
8 July 2011433.3959.2
15 July 2011465.31148.4
22 July 2011508.5897.0
29 July 2011497.2897.2
5 August 2011505.1084.6
12 August 2011569.9088.0
19 August 2011552.8289.0
26 August 2011529.6087.4
2 September 2011527.1286.8
9 September 2011521.2285.0
16 September 2011543.06111.2
23 September 2011574.82105.5
30 September 2011591.40146.3
7 October 2011580.3291.9
14 October 2011586.6693.0
21 October 2011585.1693.7
28 October 2011597.4391.9
4 November 2011588.2989.2
11 November 2011591.0973.3
18 November 2011630.4972.2
25 November 2011648.9773.0
2 December 2011661.2572.5
9 December 2011635.6873.5
16 December 2011663.6856.9
23 December 2011872.9242.2
30 December 2011848.6562.9
6 January 2012836.5335.7
13 January 2012818.5938.5
20 January 2012828.1739.4
27 January 2012ND37.1

Top-right panel
Three-month Dollar Funding Rate

Basis points

Date Dollar rate implied by FX swaps
4 January 201175.93
5 January 201172.51
6 January 201175.72
7 January 201174.75
10 January 201176.62
11 January 201173.47
12 January 201169.18
13 January 201166.45
14 January 201166.50
17 January 201166.11
18 January 201163.28
19 January 201165.82
20 January 201160.06
21 January 201157.90
24 January 201162.11
25 January 201153.31
26 January 201156.82
27 January 201157.38
28 January 201157.81
31 January 201158.18
1 February 201160.17
2 February 201158.84
3 February 201160.28
4 February 201161.90
7 February 201163.79
8 February 201159.54
9 February 201159.99
10 February 201161.05
11 February 201161.90
14 February 201161.77
15 February 201161.55
16 February 201161.24
17 February 201161.37
18 February 201162.81
21 February 201162.61
22 February 201160.26
23 February 201157.78
24 February 201156.79
25 February 201156.84
28 February 201156.45
1 March 201157.55
2 March 201157.49
3 March 201148.82
4 March 201153.61
7 March 201153.22
8 March 201153.79
9 March 201152.98
10 March 201157.89
11 March 201158.74
14 March 201156.82
15 March 201159.51
16 March 201157.91
17 March 201155.25
18 March 201153.36
21 March 201151.61
22 March 201150.74
23 March 201149.99
24 March 201150.15
25 March 201150.19
28 March 201148.04
29 March 201147.11
30 March 201148.18
31 March 201144.94
1 April 201146.93
4 April 201147.21
5 April 201144.45
6 April 201142.55
7 April 201139.95
8 April 201136.36
11 April 201138.85
12 April 201140.58
13 April 201138.14
14 April 201138.19
15 April 201137.77
18 April 201138.27
19 April 201137.01
20 April 201136.30
21 April 201136.20
22 April 2011ND
25 April 2011ND
26 April 201135.12
27 April 201132.21
28 April 201130.26
29 April 2011ND
2 May 2011ND
3 May 201129.05
4 May 201126.69
5 May 201135.38
6 May 201130.44
9 May 201136.55
10 May 201139.13
11 May 201136.32
12 May 201137.16
13 May 201136.05
16 May 201136.93
17 May 201138.18
18 May 201134.97
19 May 201137.23
20 May 201140.93
23 May 201144.70
24 May 201139.49
25 May 201141.25
26 May 201144.13
27 May 201147.28
30 May 2011ND
31 May 201144.48
1 June 201139.30
2 June 201140.92
3 June 201139.47
6 June 201135.50
7 June 201133.02
8 June 201132.77
9 June 201133.98
10 June 201138.29
13 June 201138.43
14 June 201133.06
15 June 201139.90
16 June 201144.96
17 June 201139.53
20 June 201137.57
21 June 201139.66
22 June 201141.36
23 June 201148.92
24 June 201149.35
27 June 201149.98
28 June 201147.09
29 June 201144.34
30 June 201145.45
1 July 201145.52
4 July 201146.72
5 July 201148.06
6 July 201146.72
7 July 201146.73
8 July 201148.01
11 July 201155.06
12 July 201150.80
13 July 201144.96
14 July 201148.47
15 July 201148.84
18 July 201151.05
19 July 201149.97
20 July 201146.72
21 July 201146.72
22 July 201147.81
25 July 201150.98
26 July 201152.54
27 July 201156.38
28 July 201159.18
29 July 201166.37
1 August 201167.98
2 August 201178.11
3 August 201174.83
4 August 201177.58
5 August 201177.31
8 August 2011104.68
9 August 2011104.73
10 August 2011105.74
11 August 2011108.48
12 August 2011106.23
15 August 2011100.58
16 August 2011101.73
17 August 201198.90
18 August 2011103.72
19 August 2011109.42
22 August 2011109.09
23 August 2011107.58
24 August 2011103.29
25 August 2011104.97
26 August 2011105.57
29 August 2011ND
30 August 2011105.41
31 August 2011106.51
1 September 2011109.64
2 September 2011117.75
5 September 2011123.20
6 September 2011125.52
7 September 2011124.80
8 September 2011119.25
9 September 2011134.52
12 September 2011138.97
13 September 2011125.69
14 September 2011123.16
15 September 2011108.97
16 September 2011114.15
19 September 2011118.98
20 September 2011124.89
21 September 2011126.34
22 September 2011133.88
23 September 2011134.68
26 September 2011133.25
27 September 2011129.07
28 September 2011128.83
29 September 2011133.87
30 September 2011136.98
3 October 2011138.99
4 October 2011138.39
5 October 2011138.47
6 October 2011128.85
7 October 2011129.30
10 October 2011126.98
11 October 2011123.80
12 October 2011119.80
13 October 2011122.08
14 October 2011119.63
17 October 2011122.59
18 October 2011124.18
19 October 2011124.06
20 October 2011126.65
21 October 2011127.75
24 October 2011127.22
25 October 2011128.39
26 October 2011130.50
27 October 2011125.42
28 October 2011126.44
31 October 2011130.42
1 November 2011143.72
2 November 2011139.04
3 November 2011147.11
4 November 2011137.59
7 November 2011139.04
8 November 2011140.06
9 November 2011149.25
10 November 2011153.74
11 November 2011151.74
14 November 2011154.11
15 November 2011161.24
16 November 2011167.97
17 November 2011173.36
18 November 2011171.27
21 November 2011179.76
22 November 2011177.03
23 November 2011184.56
24 November 2011188.05
25 November 2011191.35
28 November 2011196.36
29 November 2011202.73
30 November 2011171.99
1 December 2011164.01
2 December 2011168.98
5 December 2011165.68
6 December 2011162.97
7 December 2011156.43
8 December 2011165.20
9 December 2011168.02
12 December 2011177.38
13 December 2011190.51
14 December 2011194.12
15 December 2011175.83
16 December 2011171.14
19 December 2011159.95
20 December 2011166.68
21 December 2011177.80
22 December 2011177.12
23 December 2011181.21
26 December 2011ND
27 December 2011ND
28 December 2011176.44
29 December 2011169.14
30 December 2011163.45
2 January 2012ND
3 January 2012153.62
4 January 2012157.66
5 January 2012158.11
6 January 2012150.94
9 January 2012148.15
10 January 2012142.29
11 January 2012138.73
12 January 2012132.84
13 January 2012135.33
16 January 2012135.30
17 January 2012129.62
18 January 2012128.87
19 January 2012127.35
20 January 2012127.79
23 January 2012128.41

Note: December Tealbook is indicated by a vertical line.

Upper-middle-left panel
Two-year Sovereign Bond Spreads*

Percentage points

Date Italy Spain
3 January 20111.982.61
4 January 20111.832.52
5 January 20111.742.48
6 January 20111.842.54
7 January 20111.892.67
10 January 20111.902.70
11 January 20111.792.60
12 January 20111.622.48
13 January 20111.482.22
14 January 20111.432.16
17 January 20111.422.17
18 January 20111.412.27
19 January 20111.372.13
20 January 20111.362.05
21 January 20111.291.82
24 January 20111.291.95
25 January 20111.382.06
26 January 20111.312.09
27 January 20111.302.16
28 January 20111.282.14
31 January 20111.212.03
1 February 20111.051.79
2 February 20110.891.60
3 February 20111.081.77
4 February 20110.971.66
7 February 20111.041.78
8 February 20111.041.79
9 February 20111.031.77
10 February 20111.041.79
11 February 20111.091.86
14 February 20111.141.94
15 February 20111.091.89
16 February 20111.051.78
17 February 20111.101.85
18 February 20111.031.76
21 February 20111.061.78
22 February 20111.051.78
23 February 20110.961.68
24 February 20110.981.71
25 February 20110.991.70
28 February 20110.991.70
1 March 20110.971.64
2 March 20110.961.61
3 March 20110.881.51
4 March 20110.871.50
7 March 20110.911.51
8 March 20110.941.53
9 March 20110.971.53
10 March 20110.971.52
11 March 20110.851.45
14 March 20110.771.30
15 March 20110.801.32
16 March 20110.841.38
17 March 20110.761.36
18 March 20110.671.22
21 March 20110.621.17
22 March 20110.671.20
23 March 20110.701.21
24 March 20110.701.22
25 March 20110.681.22
28 March 20110.731.26
29 March 20110.701.27
30 March 20110.711.29
31 March 20110.711.38
1 April 20110.651.33
4 April 20110.621.29
5 April 20110.581.27
6 April 20110.561.20
7 April 20110.591.24
8 April 20110.971.21
11 April 20110.931.20
12 April 20110.961.23
13 April 20110.981.28
14 April 20111.031.37
15 April 20111.121.48
18 April 20111.311.83
19 April 20111.241.72
20 April 20111.191.66
21 April 20111.321.76
22 April 20111.321.76
25 April 20111.321.76
26 April 20111.401.85
27 April 20111.341.70
28 April 20111.301.61
29 April 20111.251.52
2 May 20111.191.55
3 May 20111.121.44
4 May 20111.091.40
5 May 20111.181.50
6 May 20111.191.54
9 May 20111.291.71
10 May 20111.251.66
11 May 20111.151.58
12 May 20111.121.57
13 May 20111.131.60
16 May 20111.091.55
17 May 20111.121.60
18 May 20111.111.64
19 May 20111.141.68
20 May 20111.231.89
23 May 20111.382.01
24 May 20111.331.94
25 May 20111.331.89
26 May 20111.351.88
27 May 20111.421.93
30 May 20111.471.98
31 May 20111.401.88
1 June 20111.371.87
2 June 20111.301.79
3 June 20111.191.67
6 June 20111.221.71
7 June 20111.201.64
8 June 20111.281.71
9 June 20111.361.78
10 June 20111.431.86
13 June 20111.421.89
14 June 20111.331.82
15 June 20111.481.95
16 June 20111.602.13
17 June 20111.491.98
20 June 20111.491.99
21 June 20111.451.90
22 June 20111.561.95
23 June 20111.802.22
24 June 20111.952.34
27 June 20111.912.32
28 June 20111.832.18
29 June 20111.672.03
30 June 20111.491.84
1 July 20111.391.70
4 July 20111.381.68
5 July 20111.451.78
6 July 20111.692.04
7 July 20111.752.09
8 July 20112.052.31
11 July 20112.942.98
12 July 20112.822.79
13 July 20112.782.77
14 July 20112.822.83
15 July 20113.013.01
18 July 20113.383.37
19 July 20113.023.04
20 July 20112.682.86
21 July 20112.202.35
22 July 20112.262.49
25 July 20112.662.82
26 July 20112.712.81
27 July 20112.902.93
28 July 20112.972.97
29 July 20113.163.13
1 August 20113.383.31
2 August 20113.573.48
3 August 20113.523.50
4 August 20113.853.74
5 August 20113.753.59
8 August 20112.822.55
9 August 20112.712.42
10 August 20112.942.64
11 August 20112.822.56
12 August 20112.792.50
15 August 20112.702.49
16 August 20112.662.48
17 August 20112.582.47
18 August 20112.722.67
19 August 20112.652.63
22 August 20112.652.59
23 August 20112.672.64
24 August 20112.632.61
25 August 20112.712.60
26 August 20112.712.62
29 August 20112.672.60
30 August 20112.782.65
31 August 20112.702.63
1 September 20112.772.68
2 September 20113.003.01
5 September 20113.673.26
6 September 20113.763.22
7 September 20113.322.93
8 September 20113.482.97
9 September 20113.763.20
12 September 20114.083.38
13 September 20114.143.38
14 September 20113.953.19
15 September 20113.823.15
16 September 20113.653.05
19 September 20113.733.17
20 September 20113.833.21
21 September 20113.893.27
22 September 20113.843.19
23 September 20113.853.15
26 September 20113.883.03
27 September 20113.722.82
28 September 20113.772.80
29 September 20113.692.79
30 September 20113.702.93
3 October 20113.732.99
4 October 20113.773.02
5 October 20113.752.99
6 October 20113.502.76
7 October 20113.502.75
10 October 20113.462.70
11 October 20113.482.72
12 October 20113.512.73
13 October 20113.732.96
14 October 20113.663.01
17 October 20113.803.17
18 October 20113.873.31
19 October 20113.863.34
20 October 20114.033.51
21 October 20113.803.35
24 October 20113.823.40
25 October 20113.953.42
26 October 20114.053.40
27 October 20113.773.02
28 October 20114.153.32
31 October 20114.463.45
1 November 20114.873.61
2 November 20114.833.59
3 November 20114.823.69
4 November 20115.063.85
7 November 20115.604.01
8 November 20115.983.92
9 November 20116.854.20
10 November 20116.034.31
11 November 20115.294.29
14 November 20115.684.69
15 November 20116.175.00
16 November 20116.015.00
17 November 20115.825.04
18 November 20115.664.96
21 November 20115.995.18
22 November 20116.605.37
23 November 20116.685.41
24 November 20116.855.43
25 November 20117.205.63
28 November 20116.665.30
29 November 20116.665.16
30 November 20116.605.03
1 December 20116.024.48
2 December 20116.264.27
5 December 20115.223.57
6 December 20115.253.67
7 December 20115.344.08
8 December 20115.944.63
9 December 20115.644.35
12 December 20115.594.22
13 December 20115.393.90
14 December 20115.793.80
15 December 20115.293.40
16 December 20115.073.24
19 December 20114.923.16
20 December 20114.763.14
21 December 20114.853.41
22 December 20114.923.42
23 December 20114.863.47
26 December 20114.863.47
27 December 20114.903.46
28 December 20114.833.15
29 December 20114.793.19
30 December 20114.973.16
2 January 20124.493.10
3 January 20124.443.18
4 January 20124.423.30
5 January 20124.693.48
6 January 20124.873.60
9 January 20124.953.44
10 January 20124.813.24
11 January 20124.572.96
12 January 20124.092.80
13 January 20124.152.91
16 January 20124.082.84
17 January 20123.922.78
18 January 20123.822.84
19 January 20123.782.95
20 January 20123.643.12
23 January 20123.382.97
24 January 20123.482.93

* Two-year bond yield relative to German bunds. Return to text

Upper-middle-right panel
10-year Sovereign Bond Spreads*

Percentage points

Date Italy Spain
3 January 20111.812.49
4 January 20111.742.43
5 January 20111.712.37
6 January 20111.852.55
7 January 20111.932.64
10 January 20111.982.68
11 January 20111.872.56
12 January 20111.742.40
13 January 20111.662.31
14 January 20111.632.30
17 January 20111.682.40
18 January 20111.672.36
19 January 20111.622.27
20 January 20111.622.18
21 January 20111.542.03
24 January 20111.522.09
25 January 20111.602.20
26 January 20111.612.25
27 January 20111.622.29
28 January 20111.632.31
31 January 20111.572.21
1 February 20111.421.99
2 February 20111.281.84
3 February 20111.411.97
4 February 20111.351.89
7 February 20111.442.00
8 February 20111.502.06
9 February 20111.452.01
10 February 20111.472.03
11 February 20111.492.08
14 February 20111.532.16
15 February 20111.522.13
16 February 20111.492.10
17 February 20111.562.18
18 February 20111.542.12
21 February 20111.612.18
22 February 20111.672.22
23 February 20111.692.22
24 February 20111.712.24
25 February 20111.702.25
28 February 20111.672.22
1 March 20111.642.18
2 March 20111.612.13
3 March 20111.582.08
4 March 20111.612.12
7 March 20111.622.11
8 March 20111.652.17
9 March 20111.702.22
10 March 20111.722.26
11 March 20111.652.21
14 March 20111.562.04
15 March 20111.572.06
16 March 20111.602.08
17 March 20111.562.07
18 March 20111.501.98
21 March 20111.491.92
22 March 20111.511.93
23 March 20111.531.94
24 March 20111.511.92
25 March 20111.481.89
28 March 20111.481.89
29 March 20111.461.87
30 March 20111.441.87
31 March 20111.471.94
1 April 20111.431.94
4 April 20111.391.91
5 April 20111.371.90
6 April 20111.311.80
7 April 20111.321.82
8 April 20111.271.78
11 April 20111.221.75
12 April 20111.221.75
13 April 20111.261.80
14 April 20111.291.89
15 April 20111.352.04
18 April 20111.532.31
19 April 20111.482.23
20 April 20111.442.17
21 April 20111.502.21
22 April 20111.502.21
25 April 20111.502.21
26 April 20111.562.26
27 April 20111.522.20
28 April 20111.512.13
29 April 20111.492.05
2 May 20111.462.04
3 May 20111.421.98
4 May 20111.411.96
5 May 20111.462.02
6 May 20111.492.07
9 May 20111.572.22
10 May 20111.522.15
11 May 20111.502.13
12 May 20111.472.11
13 May 20111.532.18
16 May 20111.472.13
17 May 20111.512.22
18 May 20111.512.24
19 May 20111.652.28
20 May 20111.722.43
23 May 20111.792.50
24 May 20111.722.40
25 May 20111.682.31
26 May 20111.722.31
27 May 20111.762.34
30 May 20111.832.41
31 May 20111.762.34
1 June 20111.742.33
2 June 20111.702.30
3 June 20111.572.17
6 June 20111.642.24
7 June 20111.642.24
8 June 20111.712.32
9 June 20111.782.41
10 June 20111.832.51
13 June 20111.842.53
14 June 20111.752.45
15 June 20111.882.60
16 June 20111.932.74
17 June 20111.862.61
20 June 20111.892.62
21 June 20111.832.51
22 June 20111.942.59
23 June 20112.072.77
24 June 20112.142.85
27 June 20112.092.80
28 June 20112.052.70
29 June 20111.962.59
30 June 20111.862.42
1 July 20111.832.35
4 July 20111.892.38
5 July 20111.992.47
6 July 20112.192.67
7 July 20112.212.66
8 July 20112.442.85
11 July 20113.013.36
12 July 20112.863.14
13 July 20112.803.07
14 July 20112.893.12
15 July 20113.063.38
18 July 20113.323.67
19 July 20113.063.42
20 July 20112.843.21
21 July 20112.472.85
22 July 20112.582.94
25 July 20112.903.27
26 July 20112.893.22
27 July 20113.113.32
28 July 20113.193.40
29 July 20113.333.54
1 August 20113.553.75
2 August 20113.713.87
3 August 20113.683.85
4 August 20113.903.98
5 August 20113.743.69
8 August 20113.032.89
9 August 20112.812.72
10 August 20112.912.84
11 August 20112.732.69
12 August 20112.692.66
15 August 20112.712.67
16 August 20112.672.67
17 August 20112.732.75
18 August 20112.872.90
19 August 20112.832.86
22 August 20112.872.86
23 August 20112.882.86
24 August 20112.842.80
25 August 20112.872.81
26 August 20112.922.84
29 August 20112.862.79
30 August 20112.982.89
31 August 20112.922.83
1 September 20113.012.91
2 September 20113.283.12
5 September 20113.713.41
6 September 20113.653.34
7 September 20113.353.10
8 September 20113.403.17
9 September 20113.643.38
12 September 20113.833.58
13 September 20113.923.59
14 September 20113.723.48
15 September 20113.673.48
16 September 20113.653.43
19 September 20113.793.55
20 September 20113.933.59
21 September 20113.993.64
22 September 20113.993.62
23 September 20113.883.46
26 September 20113.823.33
27 September 20113.643.09
28 September 20113.633.07
29 September 20113.573.09
30 September 20113.653.25
3 October 20113.733.31
4 October 20113.773.37
5 October 20113.693.25
6 October 20113.513.07
7 October 20113.522.99
10 October 20113.492.91
11 October 20113.542.94
12 October 20113.552.93
13 October 20113.713.10
14 October 20113.603.05
17 October 20113.703.22
18 October 20113.853.34
19 October 20113.843.34
20 October 20114.023.53
21 October 20113.793.37
24 October 20113.833.43
25 October 20113.893.48
26 October 20113.893.44
27 October 20113.673.13
28 October 20113.853.33
31 October 20114.073.52
1 November 20114.423.75
2 November 20114.363.64
3 November 20114.283.59
4 November 20114.553.76
7 November 20114.883.85
8 November 20114.973.83
9 November 20115.534.10
10 November 20115.114.09
11 November 20114.563.96
14 November 20114.924.33
15 November 20115.294.55
16 November 20115.194.60
17 November 20114.954.60
18 November 20114.684.41
21 November 20114.744.64
22 November 20114.904.69
23 November 20114.824.50
24 November 20114.914.43
25 November 20115.004.44
28 November 20114.934.27
29 November 20114.914.06
30 November 20114.743.95
1 December 20114.473.56
2 December 20114.553.55
5 December 20113.752.92
6 December 20113.683.02
7 December 20113.893.33
8 December 20114.443.80
9 December 20114.213.60
12 December 20114.543.77
13 December 20114.663.68
14 December 20114.883.77
15 December 20114.633.49
16 December 20114.743.45
19 December 20114.963.29
20 December 20114.663.11
21 December 20114.853.34
22 December 20114.973.42
23 December 20115.023.42
26 December 20115.023.42
27 December 20115.083.41
28 December 20115.113.26
29 December 20115.183.33
30 December 20115.283.26
2 January 20125.013.20
3 January 20125.023.39
4 January 20125.023.51
5 January 20125.233.77
6 January 20125.283.85
9 January 20125.313.72
10 January 20125.243.60
11 January 20125.173.51
12 January 20124.803.30
13 January 20124.883.46
16 January 20124.853.42
17 January 20124.713.34
18 January 20124.633.36
19 January 20124.513.37
20 January 20124.323.56
23 January 20124.143.49
24 January 20124.223.51

* 10-year bond yield relative to German bunds. Return to text

Lower-middle panel
Recent Developments

Bottom-left panel
Euro-area Equity Prices

Jan. 6, 2011 = 100

Date Total Banks
6 January 2011100.00100.00
7 January 201199.3797.99
10 January 201197.8694.68
11 January 201199.2896.42
12 January 2011101.65103.44
13 January 2011102.23106.87
14 January 2011102.37107.58
17 January 2011102.09106.37
18 January 2011103.25109.22
19 January 2011102.45109.67
20 January 2011102.06111.19
21 January 2011103.19113.75
24 January 2011103.38114.12
25 January 2011102.87111.43
26 January 2011103.50110.42
27 January 2011104.10113.11
28 January 2011103.11112.54
31 January 2011103.03112.39
1 February 2011104.73114.95
2 February 2011104.75115.94
3 February 2011104.30114.26
4 February 2011104.59114.55
7 February 2011105.60115.75
8 February 2011105.97116.21
9 February 2011105.74115.89
10 February 2011105.47113.78
11 February 2011105.59114.50
14 February 2011105.63113.51
15 February 2011105.82115.72
16 February 2011106.70119.88
17 February 2011106.75120.41
18 February 2011106.82119.94
21 February 2011105.03115.99
22 February 2011104.29114.37
23 February 2011103.13114.12
24 February 2011102.74113.43
25 February 2011104.09115.51
28 February 2011104.97115.97
1 March 2011104.26113.66
2 March 2011103.49112.66
3 March 2011103.85111.80
4 March 2011103.22110.42
7 March 2011102.85109.01
8 March 2011103.25109.86
9 March 2011103.10109.40
10 March 2011102.08108.27
11 March 2011101.13108.26
14 March 2011100.16110.31
15 March 201197.83108.15
16 March 201195.93104.89
17 March 201197.92106.96
18 March 201198.28107.13
21 March 2011100.42109.79
22 March 2011100.09109.53
23 March 2011100.58109.41
24 March 2011102.06111.07
25 March 2011102.13110.55
28 March 2011102.26110.77
29 March 2011102.21108.86
30 March 2011103.11108.58
31 March 2011102.29105.66
1 April 2011103.90107.89
4 April 2011103.92106.75
5 April 2011103.80106.03
6 April 2011104.40108.61
7 April 2011103.96109.85
8 April 2011104.47110.32
11 April 2011104.10109.76
12 April 2011102.63108.39
13 April 2011103.36108.51
14 April 2011102.37106.05
15 April 2011102.45104.92
18 April 2011100.21101.46
19 April 2011100.66101.61
20 April 2011102.72101.90
21 April 2011103.15103.48
22 April 2011NDND
25 April 2011NDND
26 April 2011103.79103.89
27 April 2011104.44105.16
28 April 2011105.23106.91
29 April 2011105.47107.28
2 May 2011105.55106.81
3 May 2011105.13106.41
4 May 2011103.57105.43
5 May 2011102.94103.92
6 May 2011103.96104.87
9 May 2011102.75102.20
10 May 2011103.92104.09
11 May 2011104.08104.21
12 May 2011103.28103.51
13 May 2011102.76102.42
16 May 2011102.35102.02
17 May 2011101.13101.35
18 May 2011101.62101.75
19 May 2011102.42102.28
20 May 2011101.42100.18
23 May 201199.3397.69
24 May 201199.6597.58
25 May 2011100.1099.75
26 May 201199.5998.96
27 May 2011100.25100.12
30 May 2011100.1599.28
31 May 2011101.65101.58
1 June 2011100.6399.82
2 June 201199.1898.64
3 June 201199.38100.57
6 June 201198.7498.49
7 June 201198.8798.66
8 June 201197.8797.19
9 June 201198.8297.26
10 June 201197.2995.75
13 June 201197.3295.55
14 June 201198.7397.59
15 June 201197.2594.93
16 June 201196.8794.58
17 June 201197.8797.76
20 June 201197.0996.60
21 June 201198.9599.20
22 June 201198.6798.83
23 June 201196.6594.83
24 June 201196.2292.66
27 June 201196.3792.68
28 June 201197.1794.45
29 June 201199.0696.17
30 June 2011100.5398.42
1 July 2011101.38101.71
4 July 2011101.47101.01
5 July 2011100.8699.52
6 July 2011100.1796.62
7 July 2011100.6795.95
8 July 201199.0192.15
11 July 201196.3787.48
12 July 201195.7888.43
13 July 201196.6288.45
14 July 201195.7287.71
15 July 201195.2286.30
18 July 201193.3283.17
19 July 201194.4885.14
20 July 201195.9989.13
21 July 201197.6994.25
22 July 201198.2193.71
25 July 201197.4789.72
26 July 201197.1789.96
27 July 201195.6587.43
28 July 201195.2288.54
29 July 201194.5287.99
1 August 201192.0883.88
2 August 201190.0881.09
3 August 201188.2979.32
4 August 201184.9775.52
5 August 201183.7576.07
8 August 201180.1473.84
9 August 201180.9274.01
10 August 201177.0067.45
11 August 201179.3869.44
12 August 201182.4973.09
15 August 201183.0673.98
16 August 201182.6774.37
17 August 201182.8873.76
18 August 201178.4268.98
19 August 201176.9566.92
22 August 201177.5966.88
23 August 201178.0166.36
24 August 201179.4567.09
25 August 201178.7567.75
26 August 201178.0366.46
29 August 201179.8268.57
30 August 201179.9568.47
31 August 201182.3170.46
1 September 201182.3370.42
2 September 201179.6266.69
5 September 201175.8562.39
6 September 201175.0460.61
7 September 201177.7363.00
8 September 201178.1463.66
9 September 201175.1459.31
12 September 201172.6554.98
13 September 201173.7558.16
14 September 201175.4558.58
15 September 201177.6662.25
16 September 201178.0361.55
19 September 201175.9059.52
20 September 201177.3759.56
21 September 201176.0658.18
22 September 201172.2854.84
23 September 201172.8957.49
26 September 201174.5160.17
27 September 201178.2665.03
28 September 201177.6164.17
29 September 201178.5966.30
30 September 201177.2664.67
3 October 201175.7862.37
4 October 201173.7460.05
5 October 201176.6563.50
6 October 201179.0866.05
7 October 201179.6166.30
10 October 201181.3867.63
11 October 201181.1967.98
12 October 201183.1570.43
13 October 201181.9767.03
14 October 201182.8666.28
17 October 201181.4664.22
18 October 201181.3263.63
19 October 201181.8165.62
20 October 201179.9661.77
21 October 201182.2664.59
24 October 201183.4265.34
25 October 201182.6864.34
26 October 201182.4763.76
27 October 201186.8671.04
28 October 201186.4071.15
31 October 201183.7566.48
1 November 201179.6960.64
2 November 201180.7461.23
3 November 201182.8763.25
4 November 201181.2261.55
7 November 201180.7961.11
8 November 201181.5161.98
9 November 201179.6259.93
10 November 201179.6060.02
11 November 201181.9163.02
14 November 201180.7261.54
15 November 201179.5959.58
16 November 201179.8160.07
17 November 201178.7358.66
18 November 201178.3558.66
21 November 201175.6556.18
22 November 201174.8654.28
23 November 201173.6552.96
24 November 201173.5853.61
25 November 201174.1954.14
28 November 201177.7757.89
29 November 201178.2257.81
30 November 201181.5460.53
1 December 201180.8959.88
2 December 201181.7863.04
5 December 201182.7865.19
6 December 201182.2565.02
7 December 201181.8464.48
8 December 201179.9161.68
9 December 201181.5063.81
12 December 201179.1560.63
13 December 201178.9559.51
14 December 201177.0657.59
15 December 201177.7458.62
16 December 201177.3258.55
19 December 201177.2858.78
20 December 201179.4561.55
21 December 201178.8260.62
22 December 201179.7661.86
23 December 201180.3762.04
26 December 2011NDND
27 December 201180.3761.46
28 December 201179.3860.06
29 December 201180.4561.01
30 December 201181.2261.60
2 January 201282.9862.95
3 January 201283.7263.21
4 January 201282.5460.95
5 January 201281.4257.39
6 January 201281.0956.24
9 January 201280.7154.73
10 January 201282.6057.18
11 January 201282.4657.80
12 January 201282.7659.26
13 January 201282.4559.96
16 January 201283.2260.14
17 January 201284.3760.86
18 January 201284.3260.61
19 January 201285.8165.12
20 January 201285.6365.78
23 January 201286.2368.31
24 January 201285.2666.77

Bottom-right panel
Five-year BBB Nonfinancial Corporate Spreads*

Basis points

Date United States Euro area
3 January 2011169.28158.09
4 January 2011167.20159.20
5 January 2011164.60159.22
6 January 2011160.75160.02
7 January 2011162.29158.86
10 January 2011163.09160.37
11 January 2011163.71159.48
12 January 2011162.95143.02
13 January 2011161.03142.89
14 January 2011162.71142.42
17 January 2011163.00143.08
18 January 2011163.52141.20
19 January 2011162.32141.08
20 January 2011161.55138.58
21 January 2011159.59138.24
24 January 2011162.16137.30
25 January 2011163.44136.48
26 January 2011162.43137.08
27 January 2011156.29136.85
28 January 2011156.89137.45
31 January 2011157.77139.65
1 February 2011160.28137.47
2 February 2011158.23134.70
3 February 2011158.82136.98
4 February 2011158.04134.59
7 February 2011158.09133.36
8 February 2011154.30131.11
9 February 2011152.90130.76
10 February 2011153.31130.41
11 February 2011154.49130.30
14 February 2011152.10129.65
15 February 2011156.47130.23
16 February 2011155.28129.88
17 February 2011156.45129.78
18 February 2011152.95128.09
21 February 2011153.31129.25
22 February 2011155.21129.44
23 February 2011154.42130.11
24 February 2011151.61130.23
25 February 2011153.00129.90
28 February 2011151.59128.46
1 March 2011153.15127.28
2 March 2011151.31128.27
3 March 2011151.60126.93
4 March 2011151.71129.51
7 March 2011155.86130.59
8 March 2011155.42128.25
9 March 2011159.14129.74
10 March 2011159.55129.86
11 March 2011161.13132.21
14 March 2011160.50132.71
15 March 2011162.11134.83
16 March 2011162.86136.35
17 March 2011164.73134.93
18 March 2011161.74133.30
21 March 2011162.51134.41
22 March 2011161.94134.96
23 March 2011162.03132.91
24 March 2011162.82137.01
25 March 2011160.64133.13
28 March 2011160.73134.28
29 March 2011164.51128.71
30 March 2011161.09130.82
31 March 2011161.08130.90
1 April 2011158.99130.12
4 April 2011161.51130.78
5 April 2011164.79130.96
6 April 2011161.43130.11
7 April 2011154.22131.17
8 April 2011158.72131.01
11 April 2011158.33130.74
12 April 2011151.34132.81
13 April 2011158.55132.46
14 April 2011158.60132.92
15 April 2011152.64137.03
18 April 2011159.55136.28
19 April 2011160.36136.83
20 April 2011160.40132.90
21 April 2011159.21138.37
22 April 2011159.31138.10
25 April 2011159.42138.10
26 April 2011158.68138.12
27 April 2011153.63140.23
28 April 2011142.46140.22
29 April 2011149.03140.28
2 May 2011153.96140.04
3 May 2011152.24138.33
4 May 2011152.80139.53
5 May 2011153.30140.81
6 May 2011154.17137.91
9 May 2011154.65140.15
10 May 2011155.23139.63
11 May 2011152.42137.49
12 May 2011155.13137.35
13 May 2011154.81137.08
16 May 2011157.53135.82
17 May 2011157.90136.57
18 May 2011152.66132.50
19 May 2011158.80136.34
20 May 2011162.53136.29
23 May 2011165.49137.49
24 May 2011166.54136.44
25 May 2011161.95137.17
26 May 2011162.76140.08
27 May 2011163.01135.84
30 May 2011163.40139.77
31 May 2011161.41137.68
1 June 2011156.92138.50
2 June 2011163.78138.10
3 June 2011166.11136.99
6 June 2011166.95137.93
7 June 2011168.31137.33
8 June 2011161.10141.46
9 June 2011168.15142.14
10 June 2011166.71144.69
13 June 2011167.59143.66
14 June 2011168.22144.60
15 June 2011166.91148.23
16 June 2011168.93152.63
17 June 2011170.27151.46
20 June 2011170.81151.85
21 June 2011171.21150.55
22 June 2011171.66153.85
23 June 2011171.81155.42
24 June 2011172.74155.47
27 June 2011173.50157.88
28 June 2011171.38157.57
29 June 2011167.67155.57
30 June 2011159.36153.71
1 July 2011159.61153.10
4 July 2011159.94152.55
5 July 2011167.59152.53
6 July 2011169.54153.20
7 July 2011167.77158.36
8 July 2011168.74157.93
11 July 2011176.08160.94
12 July 2011180.63162.61
13 July 2011181.07164.04
14 July 2011173.02162.81
15 July 2011177.32162.21
18 July 2011176.30163.06
19 July 2011175.50165.25
20 July 2011170.57164.89
21 July 2011162.08160.91
22 July 2011165.15162.31
25 July 2011161.58162.74
26 July 2011165.54164.94
27 July 2011159.76165.39
28 July 2011154.94166.91
29 July 2011158.07171.08
1 August 2011155.44173.25
2 August 2011154.26174.09
3 August 2011148.50179.23
4 August 2011150.81185.44
5 August 2011156.47192.08
8 August 2011150.62188.03
9 August 2011158.17197.18
10 August 2011154.25208.54
11 August 2011157.10218.36
12 August 2011161.46223.06
15 August 2011164.88225.05
16 August 2011164.26222.53
17 August 2011167.61225.45
18 August 2011166.64227.65
19 August 2011164.89232.24
22 August 2011173.01235.37
23 August 2011172.57234.25
24 August 2011175.96236.96
25 August 2011168.86240.57
26 August 2011171.09241.29
29 August 2011176.04242.59
30 August 2011178.64243.36
31 August 2011180.05240.48
1 September 2011187.43244.69
2 September 2011188.78258.79
5 September 2011189.01265.84
6 September 2011189.12267.53
7 September 2011188.60272.77
8 September 2011189.49274.40
9 September 2011192.49276.21
12 September 2011193.88280.85
13 September 2011206.40283.20
14 September 2011206.31282.92
15 September 2011208.64282.28
16 September 2011206.08285.81
19 September 2011210.94285.81
20 September 2011210.89286.58
21 September 2011212.21286.52
22 September 2011210.47293.27
23 September 2011212.71288.27
26 September 2011210.04287.88
27 September 2011210.10283.85
28 September 2011213.19269.93
29 September 2011211.09274.73
30 September 2011210.88277.06
3 October 2011215.27279.56
4 October 2011217.00286.25
5 October 2011217.30284.27
6 October 2011217.46284.39
7 October 2011215.98282.37
10 October 2011216.21280.90
11 October 2011214.89277.78
12 October 2011214.46270.13
13 October 2011215.39267.27
14 October 2011211.80267.38
17 October 2011211.32266.08
18 October 2011212.73270.15
19 October 2011209.87268.16
20 October 2011211.31276.46
21 October 2011209.62270.11
24 October 2011208.72264.72
25 October 2011205.42267.54
26 October 2011207.16265.68
27 October 2011201.99265.10
28 October 2011181.53264.96
31 October 2011182.36266.91
1 November 2011185.25278.96
2 November 2011186.45279.62
3 November 2011187.78274.22
4 November 2011184.97278.89
7 November 2011185.56281.78
8 November 2011182.68279.92
9 November 2011188.16278.24
10 November 2011191.58278.58
11 November 2011191.80277.15
14 November 2011191.96285.64
15 November 2011189.82286.04
16 November 2011195.80288.02
17 November 2011197.50288.05
18 November 2011200.23293.12
21 November 2011196.48298.59
22 November 2011197.86305.94
23 November 2011194.88304.81
24 November 2011194.96302.31
25 November 2011193.28312.74
28 November 2011192.50316.90
29 November 2011191.36321.30
30 November 2011199.16322.58
1 December 2011195.08325.71
2 December 2011200.54329.71
5 December 2011200.06320.27
6 December 2011199.83319.25
7 December 2011198.43318.12
8 December 2011198.86319.66
9 December 2011199.98321.94
12 December 2011199.04325.69
13 December 2011201.08325.28
14 December 2011201.05330.65
15 December 2011199.30323.57
16 December 2011207.79323.21
19 December 2011209.03325.45
20 December 2011202.82323.05
21 December 2011204.91322.68
22 December 2011205.34320.96
23 December 2011205.81320.70
26 December 2011206.04321.75
27 December 2011202.44320.21
28 December 2011205.46319.67
29 December 2011203.73321.70
30 December 2011202.44322.25
2 January 2012202.58322.50
3 January 2012196.43318.25
4 January 2012198.54315.43
5 January 2012198.27317.83
6 January 2012197.49317.04
9 January 2012194.22318.03
10 January 2012191.57317.72
11 January 2012188.84320.65
12 January 2012192.49314.04
13 January 2012190.16318.30
16 January 2012190.37319.69
17 January 2012189.31320.34
18 January 2012192.82318.85
19 January 2012196.16316.24
20 January 2012197.37312.03

* Relative to comparable German and U.S. sovereign bonds, respectively. Return to text

Exhibit 6
Outlook for Growth in the Advanced Foreign Economies

Top panel
Real GDP*

Percent change, annual rate

2011 2012 2013f
Q3 Q4e Q1f Q2-Q4f
1. Advanced foreign economies 2.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.5
2. December Tealbook 2.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.6
3. Euro area 0.5 -1.2 -1.9 -1.0 0.6
4. United Kingdom 2.3 -0.3 0.1 0.8 1.8
5. Japan 5.6 0.4 2.8 1.6 1.3
6. Canada 3.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0

* GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text

Middle-left panel
Industrial Production

Jan. 2007 = 100

Period Spain Italy France Germany
January 2007100.00100.00100.00100.00
February 200798.42100.76101.20100.73
March 2007100.19101.24102.09101.29
April 200797.4999.43100.30100.37
May 200799.91101.33102.29102.02
June 2007100.19100.95101.60102.39
July 200798.42101.05102.59102.94
August 200797.21104.09102.49103.31
September 200797.67101.71101.30104.04
October 2007100.37100.29103.19104.04
November 200796.0999.33101.69103.86
December 200797.8698.38101.60104.32
January 200899.16102.19102.29105.79
February 200898.05100.95102.89105.88
March 200894.23102.09101.89104.96
April 200899.44102.76104.09105.60
May 200893.4099.4399.20103.49
June 200890.23100.6799.40104.41
July 200893.5898.38100.30102.85
August 200888.9395.4499.50104.78
September 200889.7794.6898.31102.48
October 200887.3592.4995.51100.37
November 200881.8689.2692.0296.33
December 200878.7984.9890.1392.38
January 200976.6581.9486.4486.13
February 200977.4978.9985.8483.84
March 200975.0776.0584.3584.48
April 200975.8176.0584.0582.37
May 200974.6077.6684.8585.49
June 200976.0077.2885.7486.96
July 200977.3079.7586.1486.04
August 200978.8877.2887.9487.42
September 200978.1479.7587.3490.08
October 200977.6780.8987.5488.43
November 200977.0280.8088.2489.07
December 200977.0279.9487.5488.34
January 201075.4482.8988.4388.98
February 201076.1982.4188.4388.61
March 201078.5182.1389.6392.19
April 201077.9582.7090.0393.66
May 201078.7983.6591.9296.24
June 201078.3384.6089.9395.87
July 201076.9384.7990.3395.96
August 201079.4484.3289.8397.25
September 201076.7484.6090.8397.43
October 201077.0284.7990.2399.45
November 201077.8685.3691.9299.27
December 201077.1285.1792.4298.35
January 201179.9183.6593.12100.09
February 201178.9884.6093.52101.47
March 201179.0784.9892.52102.75
April 201176.3785.5591.82102.85
May 201178.4284.8993.42103.58
June 201175.8184.3291.82102.75
July 201174.9883.8493.32106.06
August 201177.3086.8893.72105.60
September 201175.7282.7991.63102.66
October 201173.7782.0391.72103.49
November 201172.0982.3292.72102.85

Middle-right panel
Euro Area

Period Real effective exchange rate
(Jan. 2007 = 100)
Consumer confidence
(Percent balance)
January 2007100.00-6.1
February 2007100.20-5.2
March 2007100.84-5.1
April 2007101.64-4.2
May 2007101.35-0.9
June 2007100.81-1.4
July 2007101.31-1.5
August 2007101.03-3.9
September 2007101.83-5.9
October 2007102.41-6.7
November 2007103.94-8.8
December 2007103.53-9.1
January 2008104.01-11.2
February 2008103.42-12.3
March 2008106.56-12.7
April 2008107.41-12.2
May 2008106.76-13.7
June 2008106.52-15.9
July 2008106.53-19.2
August 2008103.80-19.3
September 2008102.40-19.1
October 2008100.06-24.3
November 200899.37-26.4
December 2008104.43-30.8
January 2009104.33-30.6
February 2009103.46-32.9
March 2009105.42-34.2
April 2009104.26-30.6
May 2009104.49-28.3
June 2009105.55-25.2
July 2009104.99-23.1
August 2009105.13-22.1
September 2009105.95-19.1
October 2009106.73-17.7
November 2009106.50-17.3
December 2009105.28-16.1
January 2010102.86-15.8
February 2010100.12-17.4
March 201099.48-17.3
April 201097.94-15.0
May 201094.91-17.7
June 201093.06-17.3
July 201094.92-14.0
August 201094.47-11.4
September 201094.65-11.0
October 201097.70-10.9
November 201096.39-9.4
December 201094.28-11.0
January 201194.16-11.2
February 201195.04-10.0
March 201196.79-10.6
April 201198.40-11.6
May 201197.44-9.9
June 201197.68-9.7
July 201196.47-11.2
August 201196.74-16.5
September 201196.11-19.1
October 201196.51-19.9
November 201196.02-20.4
December 201194.39-21.1

Bottom-left panel
Structural Budget Deficits

Percent of GDP

Period United Kingdom Euro area
2007-3.5-1.9
2008-4.5-2.6
2009-6.9-3.8
2010-6.1-3.7
2011-4.8-2.6
2012-3.7-0.9
2013-2.60.8

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011.

Bottom-right panel
Industrial Production

Jan. 2007 = 100

Period United Kingdom Japan
January 2007100.00100.00
February 2007100.00100.57
March 2007100.19100.57
April 200799.22100.19
May 2007100.87101.33
June 2007100.10101.42
July 200799.61101.52
August 2007100.19104.08
September 200799.42102.37
October 2007100.00104.36
November 2007100.29102.85
December 2007100.19103.51
January 2008100.10103.98
February 2008100.49104.46
March 200899.42103.13
April 200899.42102.47
May 200898.64103.70
June 200897.86101.61
July 200896.89101.33
August 200897.6798.20
September 200897.3898.29
October 200895.1494.97
November 200892.2388.33
December 200890.9680.93
January 200989.6074.10
February 200989.3167.74
March 200988.6369.26
April 200989.4172.39
May 200988.4475.71
June 200988.8276.85
July 200988.7377.70
August 200987.0778.84
September 200987.4680.27
October 200987.9581.50
November 200988.2483.59
December 200987.9585.77
January 201088.2488.71
February 201088.7390.23
March 201090.6790.32
April 201090.1890.89
May 201090.6790.80
June 201089.8989.47
July 201090.1889.75
August 201090.4889.66
September 201090.6788.90
October 201090.2887.67
November 201090.6789.09
December 201090.8691.27
January 201191.0691.27
February 201189.9992.88
March 201190.0978.46
April 201188.5379.70
May 201189.2184.63
June 201189.5087.86
July 201189.1288.24
August 201189.3188.80
September 201189.3185.86
October 201188.4487.76
November 201187.8585.39

Exhibit 7
Outlook for Growth in the Emerging Market Economies

Top panel
Real GDP*

Percent change, annual rate

2011 2012 2013f
Q3 Q4e Q1f Q2-Q4f
1. Emerging market economies 4.6 3.5 4.6 4.3 4.5
2. December Tealbook 4.7 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.6
3. China 9.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 8.1
4. Other emerging Asia 2.3 1.3 4.2 4.2 4.5
5. Mexico 5.5 3.5 3.7 2.9 3.0
6. Other Latin America 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.6

* GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text

Middle-left panel
China

12-month percent change

Period Industrial production Retail sales
January 201020.7022.55
February 201020.8121.72
March 201017.3018.78
April 201017.8319.84
May 201016.4220.46
June 201013.5320.76
July 201013.7819.95
August 201013.9820.64
September 201013.4320.43
October 201013.2717.33
November 201013.3917.17
December 201013.5416.78
January 201113.9711.70
February 201114.0511.05
March 201114.3014.74
April 201113.4613.26
May 201113.4112.49
June 201114.9711.65
July 201114.3710.83
August 201113.5710.36
September 201113.9010.57
October 201113.2210.00
November 201112.4111.48
December 201112.7711.49

Middle-center panel
EME Exports

Jan. 2010 = 100*

Period Exports
January 2010100.00
February 2010103.39
March 2010103.77
April 2010105.60
May 2010107.73
June 2010109.94
July 2010110.48
August 2010109.89
September 2010109.63
October 2010111.36
November 2010115.50
December 2010120.54
January 2011127.74
February 2011127.70
March 2011131.12
April 2011130.55
May 2011134.95
June 2011133.64
July 2011133.61
August 2011133.54
September 2011132.89
October 2011130.78
November 2011130.23

* Three-month moving average. Return to text

Middle-right panel
EME Manufacturing PMI

Period Diffusion index
January 201055.76
February 201054.09
March 201055.20
April 201055.33
May 201054.25
June 201053.05
July 201052.61
August 201052.07
September 201052.43
October 201053.09
November 201053.93
December 201054.10
January 201153.95
February 201154.04
March 201154.15
April 201153.09
May 201152.43
June 201151.31
July 201150.57
August 201150.05
September 201149.72
October 201149.95
November 201149.65
December 201150.47

Bottom-left panel
Flows to EME Dedicated Funds*

Monthly
Billions of dollars

Period Bond funds Equity funds
January 20101.742.09
February 20101.89-1.47
March 20104.173.20
April 20105.063.68
May 20101.32-4.63
June 20102.911.36
July 20103.683.38
August 20103.190.88
September 20103.935.35
October 20104.767.38
November 20101.815.29
December 20100.601.51
January 20111.372.87
February 2011-1.15-7.07
March 20110.29-2.91
April 20112.154.20
May 20112.65-1.88
June 20113.730.24
July 20112.98-0.10
August 20110.52-9.85
September 2011-2.65-5.81
October 2011-1.51-4.00
November 20110.18-0.92
December 2011-0.66-5.07
January 2012-0.540.53

* January 2012 is extrapolated from data through January 18, 2012. Return to text

Source: Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.

Bottom-right panel
EME Exchange Rates

Jan. 4, 2010 = 100

Date EMEs ex. China China
4 January 2010100.00100.00
5 January 2010100.32100.02
6 January 2010100.76100.00
7 January 2010100.6899.99
8 January 2010100.89100.00
11 January 2010101.39100.01
12 January 2010100.36100.01
13 January 2010100.1999.97
14 January 2010100.26100.01
15 January 2010100.30100.01
18 January 2010NDND
19 January 2010100.25100.01
20 January 201099.60100.02
21 January 201099.48100.01
22 January 201098.78100.00
25 January 201098.91100.01
26 January 2010ND100.01
27 January 201098.34100.01
28 January 201098.46100.01
29 January 201098.11100.01
1 February 201098.21100.02
2 February 201098.65100.00
3 February 201098.48100.02
4 February 201097.9099.99
5 February 201097.24100.00
8 February 201097.41100.01
9 February 201097.91100.01
10 February 201097.9599.99
11 February 201098.0699.92
12 February 201098.2599.92
15 February 2010NDND
16 February 201098.8099.92
17 February 201098.8599.92
18 February 201098.8899.92
19 February 201098.8499.98
22 February 201099.04100.01
23 February 201098.75100.01
24 February 201098.76100.01
25 February 201098.51100.01
26 February 201099.06100.02
1 March 201099.26100.01
2 March 201099.51100.01
3 March 201099.80100.02
4 March 201099.59100.02
5 March 201099.97100.02
8 March 2010100.08100.02
9 March 2010100.11100.01
10 March 2010100.42100.02
11 March 2010100.34100.01
12 March 2010100.68100.03
15 March 2010100.45100.02
16 March 2010100.63100.02
17 March 2010100.82100.02
18 March 2010100.74100.02
19 March 2010100.44100.01
22 March 2010100.14100.01
23 March 2010100.45100.01
24 March 2010100.34100.01
25 March 2010100.37100.00
26 March 2010100.25100.01
29 March 2010100.72100.01
30 March 2010100.94100.02
31 March 2010101.36100.02
1 April 2010101.53100.01
2 April 2010101.59100.03
5 April 2010101.80100.02
6 April 2010101.88100.03
7 April 2010101.98100.03
8 April 2010101.90100.05
9 April 2010102.27100.06
12 April 2010102.32100.03
13 April 2010102.10100.03
14 April 2010102.49100.02
15 April 2010102.49100.02
16 April 2010102.19100.03
19 April 2010101.71100.02
20 April 2010102.18100.03
21 April 2010102.43100.00
22 April 2010102.08100.01
23 April 2010102.34100.00
26 April 2010102.67100.01
27 April 2010102.09100.02
28 April 2010101.46100.04
29 April 2010102.29100.02
30 April 2010102.47100.04
3 May 2010102.07100.04
4 May 2010101.50100.02
5 May 2010100.58100.01
6 May 201099.30100.01
7 May 201099.15100.03
10 May 2010100.84100.01
11 May 2010100.7799.98
12 May 2010100.88100.00
13 May 2010101.2999.99
14 May 2010100.41100.01
17 May 201099.56100.00
18 May 2010100.09100.00
19 May 201098.53100.01
20 May 201097.4199.99
21 May 201097.87100.02
24 May 201097.7899.98
25 May 201096.5399.95
26 May 201097.2399.97
27 May 201098.1299.97
28 May 201098.4799.95
31 May 2010NDND
1 June 201097.82100.00
2 June 201098.0699.97
3 June 201098.6499.99
4 June 201098.02100.01
7 June 201097.3699.93
8 June 201097.3999.97
9 June 201097.7299.98
10 June 201098.0499.95
11 June 201098.3299.93
14 June 201098.9699.93
15 June 201098.9799.93
16 June 201099.1999.93
17 June 201099.2599.98
18 June 201099.60100.01
21 June 2010100.52100.45
22 June 2010100.00100.21
23 June 201099.44100.22
24 June 201099.13100.40
25 June 201098.98100.53
28 June 201099.30100.46
29 June 201098.37100.44
30 June 201098.37100.68
1 July 201097.84100.69
2 July 201097.85100.83
5 July 2010NDND
6 July 201098.40100.70
7 July 201098.39100.74
8 July 201098.92100.75
9 July 201099.12100.82
12 July 201098.91100.83
13 July 201099.23100.82
14 July 201099.35100.83
15 July 201099.20100.74
16 July 201098.73100.77
19 July 201098.51100.73
20 July 201098.81100.73
21 July 201099.06100.74
22 July 201099.25100.71
23 July 201099.31100.69
26 July 201099.60100.72
27 July 201099.99100.73
28 July 201099.82100.73
29 July 201099.75100.76
30 July 2010100.07100.79
2 August 2010100.62100.79
3 August 2010100.67100.80
4 August 2010100.75100.82
5 August 2010100.79100.84
6 August 2010100.62100.88
9 August 2010100.75100.89
10 August 2010100.34100.82
11 August 201099.93100.78
12 August 201099.88100.63
13 August 201099.88100.47
16 August 2010100.09100.35
17 August 2010100.55100.52
18 August 2010100.64100.53
19 August 2010100.22100.55
20 August 2010100.01100.55
23 August 201099.75100.41
24 August 201099.35100.45
25 August 201099.02100.41
26 August 201099.35100.40
27 August 201099.28100.44
30 August 201098.95100.36
31 August 201098.75100.30
1 September 201099.41100.25
2 September 201099.51100.30
3 September 201099.97100.38
6 September 2010NDND
7 September 201099.50100.54
8 September 201099.82100.49
9 September 201099.97100.67
10 September 2010100.16100.86
13 September 2010100.58101.00
14 September 2010100.72101.25
15 September 2010100.68101.33
16 September 2010100.46101.52
17 September 2010100.71101.55
20 September 2010100.85101.70
21 September 2010100.87101.81
22 September 2010101.29101.85
23 September 2010101.40101.83
24 September 2010101.82101.85
27 September 2010102.09102.04
28 September 2010102.13102.05
29 September 2010102.38102.10
30 September 2010102.10102.04
1 October 2010102.52102.06
4 October 2010102.38102.03
5 October 2010102.71102.04
6 October 2010103.15102.06
7 October 2010103.03102.05
8 October 2010103.07102.34
11 October 2010NDND
12 October 2010103.01102.31
13 October 2010103.48102.46
14 October 2010103.58102.66
15 October 2010103.59102.83
18 October 2010103.34102.76
19 October 2010102.83102.75
20 October 2010103.09102.64
21 October 2010103.10102.66
22 October 2010102.99102.54
25 October 2010103.50102.54
26 October 2010103.16102.47
27 October 2010102.61102.20
28 October 2010102.94102.10
29 October 2010103.20102.35
1 November 2010103.36102.06
2 November 2010103.62102.24
3 November 2010103.67102.27
4 November 2010104.20102.50
5 November 2010104.25102.59
8 November 2010103.86102.22
9 November 2010103.99102.78
10 November 2010103.83102.92
11 November 2010NDND
12 November 2010103.34102.87
15 November 2010103.03102.79
16 November 2010102.48102.85
17 November 2010102.57102.80
18 November 2010103.13102.93
19 November 2010103.06102.82
22 November 2010103.15102.80
23 November 2010101.94102.77
24 November 2010102.39102.62
25 November 2010NDND
26 November 2010101.83102.40
29 November 2010101.51102.51
30 November 2010101.86102.40
1 December 2010102.43102.47
2 December 2010102.63102.50
3 December 2010102.91102.47
6 December 2010102.84102.69
7 December 2010102.90102.74
8 December 2010102.58102.49
9 December 2010102.47102.59
10 December 2010102.51102.59
13 December 2010102.76102.43
14 December 2010103.04102.57
15 December 2010102.65102.60
16 December 2010102.42102.46
17 December 2010102.48102.60
20 December 2010102.46102.29
21 December 2010102.71102.54
22 December 2010102.91102.74
23 December 2010102.95102.74
24 December 2010NDND
27 December 2010103.02102.97
28 December 2010103.13103.06
29 December 2010103.30103.13
30 December 2010103.58103.44
31 December 2010NDND
3 January 2011104.22103.61
4 January 2011103.96103.34
5 January 2011103.95103.68
6 January 2011103.78103.04
7 January 2011103.68103.01
10 January 2011103.51102.88
11 January 2011103.92103.15
12 January 2011104.54103.39
13 January 2011104.59103.38
14 January 2011104.47103.64
17 January 2011NDND
18 January 2011104.66103.71
19 January 2011104.58103.72
20 January 2011104.17103.68
21 January 2011104.38103.71
24 January 2011104.45103.74
25 January 2011104.28103.72
26 January 2011104.54103.74
27 January 2011104.50103.74
28 January 2011104.05103.73
31 January 2011104.02103.42
1 February 2011104.70103.54
2 February 2011104.68104.14
3 February 2011104.59104.14
4 February 2011104.70104.14
7 February 2011104.99104.07
8 February 2011105.14104.20
9 February 2011104.85103.58
10 February 2011104.52103.66
11 February 2011104.39103.57
14 February 2011104.48103.50
15 February 2011104.27103.63
16 February 2011104.51103.63
17 February 2011104.75103.68
18 February 2011104.97103.87
21 February 2011NDND
22 February 2011104.38103.77
23 February 2011104.11103.85
24 February 2011104.00103.88
25 February 2011104.30103.84
28 February 2011104.41103.90
1 March 2011104.62103.92
2 March 2011104.61103.88
3 March 2011105.02103.89
4 March 2011105.17103.96
7 March 2011105.11104.17
8 March 2011105.17103.94
9 March 2011105.31104.11
10 March 2011105.06103.87
11 March 2011105.15103.85
14 March 2011105.20103.92
15 March 2011104.63103.87
16 March 2011104.46103.90
17 March 2011104.42103.85
18 March 2011104.71103.93
21 March 2011105.12104.02
22 March 2011105.21104.22
23 March 2011105.09104.09
24 March 2011105.36104.11
25 March 2011105.54104.13
28 March 2011105.42104.01
29 March 2011105.38104.07
30 March 2011105.76104.14
31 March 2011105.92104.26
1 April 2011106.44104.27
4 April 2011106.45104.42
5 April 2011106.56104.41
6 April 2011106.87104.33
7 April 2011106.85104.36
8 April 2011107.25104.47
11 April 2011107.14104.42
12 April 2011106.73104.39
13 April 2011106.84104.50
14 April 2011107.07104.54
15 April 2011107.33104.53
18 April 2011106.87104.58
19 April 2011107.23104.55
20 April 2011107.80104.63
21 April 2011107.99105.16
22 April 2011107.94104.93
25 April 2011107.89104.59
26 April 2011108.03104.60
27 April 2011108.13104.85
28 April 2011108.39105.02
29 April 2011108.71105.20
2 May 2011108.81105.16
3 May 2011108.48105.11
4 May 2011108.06105.16
5 May 2011107.49105.15
6 May 2011107.82105.16
9 May 2011107.66105.14
10 May 2011107.85105.17
11 May 2011107.84105.17
12 May 2011107.29105.06
13 May 2011106.95105.07
16 May 2011106.77104.92
17 May 2011106.61104.94
18 May 2011107.00104.99
19 May 2011107.21104.97
20 May 2011107.33105.17
23 May 2011106.52104.95
24 May 2011106.76105.05
25 May 2011106.65105.15
26 May 2011106.86105.18
27 May 2011107.48105.16
30 May 2011NDND
31 May 2011107.88105.38
1 June 2011107.81105.39
2 June 2011107.57105.32
3 June 2011107.84105.37
6 June 2011107.70105.37
7 June 2011107.61105.34
8 June 2011107.35105.43
9 June 2011107.35105.43
10 June 2011106.90105.36
13 June 2011106.77105.31
14 June 2011107.20105.37
15 June 2011106.74105.33
16 June 2011106.15105.45
17 June 2011106.55105.52
20 June 2011106.62105.49
21 June 2011107.07105.60
22 June 2011107.23105.64
23 June 2011106.67105.56
24 June 2011106.62105.46
27 June 2011106.45105.34
28 June 2011106.75105.52
29 June 2011107.24105.63
30 June 2011107.69105.63
1 July 2011108.07105.61
4 July 2011NDND
5 July 2011108.09105.59
6 July 2011107.98105.57
7 July 2011108.37105.60
8 July 2011108.29105.61
11 July 2011107.72105.57
12 July 2011107.36105.49
13 July 2011107.92105.56
14 July 2011107.98105.70
15 July 2011107.89105.67
18 July 2011107.47105.54
19 July 2011107.97105.64
20 July 2011108.21105.72
21 July 2011108.49105.79
22 July 2011108.63105.91
25 July 2011108.51105.93
26 July 2011108.88106.00
27 July 2011108.66105.97
28 July 2011108.57105.98
29 July 2011108.35106.08
1 August 2011108.35106.12
2 August 2011108.14106.05
3 August 2011107.78106.11
4 August 2011106.94106.05
5 August 2011106.51106.01
8 August 2011105.77106.11
9 August 2011105.00106.17
10 August 2011105.05106.39
11 August 2011105.08106.79
12 August 2011105.52106.86
15 August 2011105.86106.84
16 August 2011106.04106.98
17 August 2011106.23106.95
18 August 2011105.34106.89
19 August 2011105.63106.83
22 August 2011105.42106.67
23 August 2011105.58106.72
24 August 2011105.09106.88
25 August 2011104.92106.84
26 August 2011104.97106.91
29 August 2011105.28107.00
30 August 2011105.12107.01
31 August 2011105.76107.05
1 September 2011105.94106.99
2 September 2011105.43106.98
5 September 2011NDND
6 September 2011104.47106.84
7 September 2011104.72106.78
8 September 2011104.48106.96
9 September 2011103.70106.88
12 September 2011103.00106.88
13 September 2011102.38106.73
14 September 2011101.72106.83
15 September 2011101.89106.84
16 September 2011101.80106.96
19 September 2011100.28106.90
20 September 2011100.26106.95
21 September 201199.11106.99
22 September 201196.99106.88
23 September 201197.51106.88
26 September 201197.44106.72
27 September 201198.94106.72
28 September 201198.63106.79
29 September 201198.26106.74
30 September 201197.24107.04
3 October 201196.72107.10
4 October 201196.30107.10
5 October 201197.32107.10
6 October 201197.89107.04
7 October 201198.87107.10
10 October 2011NDND
11 October 201199.08107.10
12 October 201199.53107.38
13 October 201199.28106.98
14 October 201199.70107.04
17 October 201199.83107.19
18 October 201199.26107.00
19 October 201199.59107.06
20 October 201198.13106.97
21 October 201198.71106.97
24 October 201199.45107.11
25 October 201199.53107.34
26 October 201199.35107.46
27 October 2011100.98107.36
28 October 2011101.49107.40
31 October 2011101.04107.44
1 November 201199.05107.44
2 November 201199.52107.43
3 November 201199.59107.49
4 November 201199.69107.69
7 November 201199.62107.55
8 November 201199.81107.58
9 November 201199.31107.68
10 November 201198.83107.59
11 November 2011NDND
14 November 201199.07107.46
15 November 201198.63107.58
16 November 201198.58107.61
17 November 201198.45107.51
18 November 201198.09107.41
21 November 201196.97107.34
22 November 201196.99107.34
23 November 201196.17107.39
24 November 2011NDND
25 November 201195.75107.01
28 November 201196.53106.95
29 November 201196.97107.06
30 November 201198.03107.07
1 December 201198.53107.25
2 December 201198.66107.35
5 December 201198.85107.30
6 December 201198.64107.27
7 December 201198.66107.28
8 December 201198.06107.32
9 December 201198.01107.28
12 December 201197.12107.34
13 December 201197.02107.27
14 December 201196.39107.16
15 December 201196.73107.12
16 December 201196.77107.55
19 December 201196.55107.73
20 December 201197.04107.59
21 December 201197.01107.71
22 December 201197.10107.70
23 December 201197.16107.75
26 December 2011NDND
27 December 201196.64108.01
28 December 201196.41108.01
29 December 201196.44108.05
30 December 201196.55108.47
2 January 2012NDND
3 January 201297.58108.47
4 January 201297.52108.47
5 January 201297.18108.35
6 January 201297.22108.22
9 January 201297.18108.12
10 January 201297.89108.13
11 January 201297.72108.11
12 January 201298.09108.07
13 January 201297.97108.26
16 January 2012NDND
17 January 201298.68108.14
18 January 201299.21108.18
19 January 201299.69108.09
20 January 201299.72107.81
23 January 2012ND107.81

Exhibit 8
Inflation and Monetary Policy

Top-left panel
Commodity Prices

Date Oil*
(Dollars per barrel)
Food
(Jan. 7, 2011 = 100)
Metals
(Jan. 7, 2011 = 100)
3 January 2011ND100.1598.88
4 January 201191.2899.5398.88
5 January 201191.62100.8697.85
6 January 201191.32100.7298.17
7 January 201190.46100.00100.00
10 January 201191.58102.5099.78
11 January 201193.21102.68100.55
12 January 201194.53104.05101.26
13 January 201194.22104.46101.32
14 January 201194.21104.84101.12
17 January 2011NCNDND
18 January 201193.69106.01101.56
19 January 201193.83105.65101.22
20 January 201192.51105.8499.95
21 January 201192.55105.84102.45
24 January 201191.84106.18102.21
25 January 201190.54106.05101.47
26 January 201192.19106.90102.07
27 January 201191.88107.10102.94
28 January 201193.77107.59103.97
31 January 201195.35108.51104.87
1 February 201195.77109.25105.79
2 February 201196.46109.37106.50
3 February 2011ND109.21106.72
4 February 2011ND109.97106.41
7 February 201194.24110.04107.00
8 February 201194.13110.66106.61
9 February 201195.12112.00106.47
10 February 201195.29112.13105.96
11 February 201194.61111.04106.25
14 February 201194.66110.30107.74
15 February 201194.84109.02107.59
16 February 201195.42108.78107.11
17 February 201196.07109.84106.33
18 February 201195.71109.21106.98
21 February 2011NCNDND
22 February 2011100.94107.74106.14
23 February 2011104.03108.38105.26
24 February 2011106.94107.97105.15
25 February 2011105.97110.08106.50
28 February 2011105.63111.02107.01
1 March 2011107.34110.76107.28
2 March 2011109.36111.21106.56
3 March 2011108.23111.80106.55
4 March 2011110.12113.22106.86
7 March 2011110.41113.10105.33
8 March 2011109.05113.06104.00
9 March 2011109.53112.85103.63
10 March 2011109.25112.44102.31
11 March 2011107.61110.37101.99
14 March 2011106.96110.11102.35
15 March 2011103.57107.90100.32
16 March 2011104.07107.42101.92
17 March 2011107.79108.72102.98
18 March 2011108.43108.98103.29
21 March 2011108.51109.31102.95
22 March 2011109.28109.39103.13
23 March 2011109.90109.22105.01
24 March 2011110.22110.89105.59
25 March 2011110.23111.45107.71
28 March 2011109.19111.21107.03
29 March 2011109.36112.32106.63
30 March 2011109.46111.56106.48
31 March 2011111.15113.74106.60
1 April 2011112.46114.88106.40
4 April 2011113.78115.13106.35
5 April 2011114.31115.20106.94
6 April 2011115.22113.81107.94
7 April 2011115.98113.31108.99
8 April 2011118.86113.67109.99
11 April 2011117.07113.46110.08
12 April 2011114.74112.79109.28
13 April 2011114.66112.93108.45
14 April 2011115.35112.57107.57
15 April 2011116.12112.56107.93
18 April 2011114.87113.43107.63
19 April 2011114.26113.76106.99
20 April 2011116.89113.95107.87
21 April 2011117.80114.36108.04
22 April 2011NDNDND
25 April 2011117.98114.13107.59
26 April 2011117.94113.58106.86
27 April 2011118.76113.16106.02
28 April 2011118.81111.68106.13
29 April 2011119.55113.07105.60
2 May 2011ND113.43105.69
3 May 2011117.17112.39105.67
4 May 2011115.44112.20104.58
5 May 2011108.30111.38101.64
6 May 2011103.56109.80100.18
9 May 2011107.93110.63101.79
10 May 2011109.93111.62101.89
11 May 2011107.36110.40100.74
12 May 2011105.73110.29100.30
13 May 2011106.91109.93101.39
16 May 2011104.89110.2199.34
17 May 2011ND110.96100.24
18 May 2011106.34112.46100.79
19 May 2011105.72112.50100.65
20 May 2011106.23111.91100.79
23 May 2011103.89110.7499.05
24 May 2011105.87110.7499.22
25 May 2011107.85111.42101.31
26 May 2011107.73112.46101.11
27 May 2011108.35113.13101.25
30 May 2011NCNDND
31 May 2011109.61112.60102.92
1 June 2011108.18112.63102.33
2 June 2011108.22113.44101.88
3 June 2011108.24112.77101.08
6 June 2011107.16111.59101.10
7 June 2011107.79111.65100.93
8 June 2011109.24112.76100.48
9 June 2011110.93113.13100.70
10 June 2011109.85113.14100.62
13 June 2011108.79112.6499.23
14 June 2011110.01112.09100.61
15 June 2011106.58112.15100.62
16 June 2011105.39111.0199.50
17 June 2011104.40111.58100.68
20 June 2011103.52111.4098.82
21 June 2011103.82111.7199.77
22 June 2011105.10110.8599.68
23 June 2011101.87110.4699.63
24 June 2011100.38109.9099.77
27 June 201199.15109.0799.84
28 June 2011101.60109.83100.11
29 June 2011104.16110.10100.96
30 June 2011104.48108.69102.10
1 July 2011104.09107.61102.28
4 July 2011NCNDND
5 July 2011105.25108.99103.03
6 July 2011105.70108.83103.23
7 July 2011108.50109.43104.25
8 July 2011108.28109.16104.19
11 July 2011107.47108.32102.57
12 July 2011107.60109.14102.64
13 July 2011108.94110.91103.31
14 July 2011108.03112.55103.81
15 July 2011108.25112.30103.66
18 July 2011107.58112.29104.13
19 July 2011108.49112.35105.10
20 July 2011109.34112.74105.16
21 July 2011109.05113.01104.79
22 July 2011109.85113.29105.40
25 July 2011109.33112.28105.15
26 July 2011109.80112.80106.30
27 July 2011108.90113.02106.36
28 July 2011108.68112.63106.41
29 July 2011107.87111.93105.77
1 August 2011108.08112.65105.95
2 August 2011106.49113.52104.74
3 August 2011104.76113.47103.21
4 August 2011100.56112.94101.85
5 August 201199.79112.8099.79
8 August 201195.22111.1497.32
9 August 2011ND112.2996.39
10 August 201196.32112.2595.17
11 August 201198.20112.9595.15
12 August 201198.51112.8896.38
15 August 2011100.02113.4496.52
16 August 201199.85112.8795.68
17 August 2011101.06113.2696.40
18 August 201198.21112.5395.64
19 August 201197.76112.9495.24
22 August 201198.28112.5894.89
23 August 201199.97113.2295.69
24 August 2011100.10112.4895.25
25 August 2011100.98112.0296.05
26 August 2011101.09113.3696.64
29 August 2011102.46113.8796.59
30 August 2011ND113.8097.04
31 August 2011104.50113.6597.72
1 September 2011104.22112.0697.12
2 September 2011102.66112.5596.83
5 September 2011NCNDND
6 September 2011101.97112.2796.01
7 September 2011104.59111.8996.85
8 September 2011104.63111.4597.18
9 September 2011102.98111.3296.15
12 September 2011101.68110.8694.81
13 September 2011102.51110.0495.59
14 September 2011102.12110.1794.94
15 September 2011103.95110.0095.28
16 September 2011103.97109.2295.40
19 September 2011101.75108.4493.20
20 September 2011102.04108.3593.30
21 September 2011101.47108.1892.69
22 September 201197.38106.6288.61
23 September 201196.47106.2386.26
26 September 201195.80105.8386.96
27 September 201198.96105.1089.05
28 September 201196.70104.1285.68
29 September 201196.90104.6084.82
30 September 201194.80103.1484.82
3 October 201192.02103.8683.69
4 October 201191.29103.4583.62
5 October 201193.15103.9984.24
6 October 201195.77103.8585.40
7 October 201196.39103.1285.98
10 October 201198.53101.9887.23
11 October 201199.16104.4686.04
12 October 2011100.07104.2687.13
13 October 2011100.02103.9586.37
14 October 2011102.69104.7186.71
17 October 2011101.96104.8986.37
18 October 2011102.01105.0984.71
19 October 2011101.03105.1585.05
20 October 2011100.55104.9882.95
21 October 2011101.27104.5584.63
24 October 2011103.24104.6686.16
25 October 2011104.40106.3086.34
26 October 2011ND105.5786.43
27 October 2011104.76105.5187.75
28 October 2011103.98105.7088.10
31 October 2011102.77105.9587.79
1 November 2011101.44105.6286.54
2 November 2011102.71105.5787.33
3 November 2011103.57104.5087.79
4 November 2011104.61104.1687.93
7 November 2011ND103.5886.21
8 November 2011107.94104.1086.76
9 November 2011106.29102.9985.91
10 November 2011106.68102.3184.63
11 November 2011107.69102.3484.89
14 November 2011107.26100.5985.37
15 November 2011107.62101.3985.25
16 November 2011108.16101.1885.06
17 November 2011105.57100.4184.52
18 November 2011104.66100.1284.99
21 November 2011103.6398.9283.85
22 November 2011104.6598.6883.97
23 November 2011103.9797.9883.45
24 November 2011NCNDND
25 November 2011103.6798.1583.02
28 November 2011105.2998.2984.01
29 November 2011106.5998.9184.08
30 November 2011106.8698.6684.69
1 December 2011105.8498.3985.45
2 December 2011106.3998.1785.59
5 December 2011106.5497.4585.39
6 December 2011106.5996.9985.13
7 December 2011106.3997.0185.56
8 December 2011104.8297.1185.22
9 December 2011104.8296.4085.15
12 December 2011103.7295.7884.11
13 December 2011105.1295.7783.57
14 December 2011102.2194.9481.58
15 December 2011100.1994.8381.41
16 December 201199.8294.9781.97
19 December 2011100.1195.0681.56
20 December 2011102.5595.5081.84
21 December 2011104.3495.6082.46
22 December 2011104.9595.6982.43
23 December 2011104.9896.4082.96
26 December 2011NDNDND
27 December 2011105.8696.9082.67
28 December 2011104.8996.8882.18
29 December 2011104.6097.5081.91
30 December 2011103.7597.6782.21
2 January 2012NDNDND
3 January 2012107.1197.9184.34
4 January 2012108.2697.6484.07
5 January 2012108.0096.7383.92
6 January 2012108.1996.0584.19
9 January 2012107.9296.7884.59
10 January 2012108.6696.6485.49
11 January 2012108.0596.4185.87
12 January 2012106.9395.3487.30
13 January 2012106.5294.5487.23
16 January 2012NCNDND
17 January 2012107.5295.2988.59
18 January 2012107.2295.9588.66
19 January 2012107.1196.5289.33
20 January 2012105.8996.9088.97

* Average of WTI, Brent, and Dubai spot prices. Return to table

Top-right panel
Commodity Price Outlook

2008:Q1 = 100

Period Imported oil Nonfuel
January 2008100.00100.00
February 2008100.34100.00
March 2008107.20100.00
April 2008115.74103.21
May 2008126.91103.21
June 2008138.77103.21
July 2008145.8498.04
August 2008138.8098.04
September 2008125.3898.04
October 2008107.1472.68
November 200876.2172.68
December 200857.4672.68
January 200948.0068.62
February 200948.0368.62
March 200950.3168.62
April 200955.9273.98
May 200961.7573.98
June 200971.3373.98
July 200974.1482.75
August 200977.9782.75
September 200980.9182.75
October 200980.5388.73
November 200985.9688.73
December 200986.3388.73
January 201088.4796.08
February 201086.6396.08
March 201089.0096.08
April 201092.3399.88
May 201091.6699.88
June 201086.4999.88
July 201086.45100.57
August 201087.62100.57
September 201086.21100.57
October 201089.20114.17
November 201092.12114.17
December 201095.76114.17
January 2011101.15127.91
February 2011104.45127.91
March 2011113.43127.91
April 2011125.50126.91
May 2011130.32126.91
June 2011126.97126.91
July 2011125.03121.32
August 2011122.52121.32
September 2011120.84121.32
October 2011117.91105.86
November 2011121.76105.86
December 2011121.04105.86
January 2012121.84104.42
February 2012122.45104.42
March 2012122.47104.42
April 2012122.58104.95
May 2012122.77104.95
June 2012122.90104.95
July 2012123.00105.47
August 2012122.98105.47
September 2012122.81105.47
October 2012122.59105.81
November 2012122.35105.81
December 2012122.09105.81
January 2013121.85106.30
February 2013121.51106.30
March 2013121.16106.30
April 2013120.79106.77
May 2013120.40106.77
June 2013120.01106.77
July 2013119.65107.09
August 2013119.27107.09
September 2013118.91107.09
October 2013118.56107.30
November 2013118.26107.30
December 2013117.97107.30

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in January 2012.

Middle-left panel
AFE Consumer Prices

12-month percent change

Period United Kingdom Euro area Canada Japan
January 20103.390.981.85-0.99
February 20102.910.871.58-0.89
March 20103.341.541.40-0.79
April 20103.661.621.85-0.89
May 20103.351.681.40-0.69
June 20103.291.481.05-0.70
July 20103.091.781.93-0.99
August 20103.151.591.75-1.00
September 20103.071.871.83-0.90
October 20103.231.942.35-0.20
November 20103.341.911.99-0.30
December 20103.722.212.34-0.40
January 20113.902.342.33-0.50
February 20114.302.442.16-0.50
March 20114.002.663.20-0.60
April 20114.442.833.37-0.50
May 20114.422.733.54-0.40
June 20114.232.723.20-0.40
July 20114.472.562.750.30
August 20114.542.523.000.20
September 20115.162.993.340.00
October 20115.013.032.89-0.20
November 20114.793.042.80-0.50
December 20114.192.742.29ND

Middle-right panel
EME Consumer Prices

12-month percent change

Period China Mexico Brazil
January 20101.54.464.36
February 20102.74.834.77
March 20102.44.975.30
April 20102.84.275.49
May 20103.13.925.31
June 20102.93.694.76
July 20103.33.644.44
August 20103.53.684.29
September 20103.63.704.68
October 20104.44.025.39
November 20105.14.326.08
December 20104.64.406.47
January 20114.93.786.53
February 20114.93.576.36
March 20115.43.046.31
April 20115.33.366.30
May 20115.53.256.44
June 20116.43.286.80
July 20116.53.556.87
August 20116.23.427.40
September 20116.13.147.30
October 20115.53.206.66
November 20114.23.486.18
December 20114.13.826.08

Bottom-left panel
Consumer Price Outlook

Four-quarter percent change

Period Advanced foreign economies Emerging market economies
2010:Q11.103.38
2010:Q21.243.50
2010:Q31.333.62
2010:Q41.704.33
2011:Q11.994.50
2011:Q22.404.81
2011:Q32.405.09
2011:Q42.294.28
2012:Q11.883.74
2012:Q21.653.54
2012:Q31.703.17
2012:Q41.323.13
2013:Q11.213.20
2013:Q21.183.18
2013:Q31.153.19
2013:Q41.143.21

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012:Q1.

Bottom-right panel
Monetary Policy

Exhibit 9
U.S. External Sector

Top-left panel
Total Foreign Real GDP

Period Four-quarter percent change June TB
2011:Q14.064.05
2011:Q23.293.48
2011:Q33.343.58
2011:Q42.923.62
2012:Q12.613.45
2012:Q22.623.63
2012:Q32.343.56
2012:Q42.513.57
2013:Q12.593.59
2013:Q22.733.61
2013:Q32.863.62
2013:Q42.973.62

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011:Q4.

Top-right panel
Broad Real Dollar

Period 2009:Q1 = 100 June TB
2009:Q1100.00ND
2009:Q296.45ND
2009:Q393.77ND
2009:Q491.36ND
2010:Q191.86ND
2010:Q292.61ND
2010:Q391.33ND
2010:Q487.97ND
2011:Q186.81ND
2011:Q284.78ND
2011:Q385.3284.24
2011:Q488.1183.74
2012:Q188.5783.17
2012:Q288.3482.56
2012:Q387.9281.94
2012:Q487.3381.32
2013:Q186.7380.75
2013:Q286.0980.23
2013:Q385.4679.71
2013:Q484.8279.21

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012:Q1.

Middle-left panel
Real Exports

Period Four-quarter percent change June TB
2011:Q18.938.08
2011:Q27.298.38
2011:Q35.959.27
2011:Q45.289.54
2012:Q14.719.96
2012:Q24.949.63
2012:Q34.899.24
2012:Q44.808.98
2013:Q14.688.74
2013:Q24.848.57
2013:Q35.028.39
2013:Q45.168.13

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011:Q4.

Middle-right panel
Real Imports

Period Four-quarter percent change June TB
2011:Q19.639.49
2011:Q24.752.53
2011:Q32.071.15
2011:Q43.424.94
2012:Q12.383.99
2012:Q22.734.24
2012:Q33.643.07
2012:Q43.863.98
2013:Q13.974.41
2013:Q24.295.32
2013:Q33.995.49
2013:Q44.115.71

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011:Q4.

Bottom-left panel
Net Exports

Period Contribution to U.S. real GDP, p.p.* June TB
2011:Q1-0.42-0.49
2011:Q20.140.65
2011:Q30.431.00
2011:Q40.120.44
2012:Q10.220.66
2012:Q20.200.61
2012:Q30.040.76
2012:Q4-0.010.59
2013:Q1-0.040.50
2013:Q2-0.070.34
2013:Q30.000.29
2013:Q40.000.23

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011:Q4.

* Based on four-quarter percent changes. Return to table

Bottom-right panel
Current Account Balance

Period Percent of GDP June TB
2008:Q1-4.97ND
2008:Q2-4.86ND
2008:Q3-4.82ND
2008:Q4-4.29ND
2009:Q1-2.74ND
2009:Q2-2.39ND
2009:Q3-2.81ND
2009:Q4-2.86ND
2010:Q1-3.31-3.17
2010:Q2-3.33-3.31
2010:Q3-3.29-3.36
2010:Q4-3.04-3.10
2011:Q1-3.22-3.52
2011:Q2-3.32-2.92
2011:Q3-2.91-2.87
2011:Q4-2.96-2.51
2012:Q1-3.01-2.32
2012:Q2-2.71-2.09
2012:Q3-2.79-2.06
2012:Q4-2.90-1.99
2013:Q1-3.11-1.89
2013:Q2-2.87-1.91
2013:Q3-2.92-1.90
2013:Q4-3.02-1.90

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011:Q4.

Exhibit 10
Baseline Financial Conditions

Top-left panel
Long-term Interest Rates

Quarterly average
Percent

Period 10-year Treasury yield BBB corporate yield Conforming mortgage rate
2007:Q14.766.116.21
2007:Q24.926.306.36
2007:Q34.846.546.55
2007:Q44.416.376.22
2008:Q13.876.545.87
2008:Q24.096.846.09
2008:Q34.057.196.32
2008:Q43.729.395.84
2009:Q13.238.965.06
2009:Q23.658.155.01
2009:Q33.816.765.15
2009:Q43.696.134.92
2010:Q13.875.784.99
2010:Q23.625.554.83
2010:Q32.905.074.41
2010:Q42.975.044.47
2011:Q13.535.404.83
2011:Q23.285.154.60
2011:Q32.484.874.20
2011:Q42.094.983.98
2012:Q11.954.853.85
2012:Q22.104.954.00
2012:Q32.355.104.15
2012:Q42.655.204.40
2013:Q12.955.304.65
2013:Q23.155.404.85
2013:Q33.355.455.00
2013:Q43.505.455.15

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012:Q1.

Top-right panel
Equity Prices

Quarter-end
2007:Q1 = 100

Period Dow Jones total stock market index Dec. TB
2007:Q1100.00ND
2007:Q2105.56ND
2007:Q3106.61ND
2007:Q4102.85ND
2008:Q192.52ND
2008:Q290.73ND
2008:Q382.42ND
2008:Q463.06ND
2009:Q156.31ND
2009:Q265.41ND
2009:Q375.73ND
2009:Q479.79ND
2010:Q184.40ND
2010:Q274.60ND
2010:Q382.91ND
2010:Q492.23ND
2011:Q197.41ND
2011:Q296.94ND
2011:Q381.70ND
2011:Q490.9891.33
2012:Q194.2191.57
2012:Q294.4592.27
2012:Q395.6093.72
2012:Q497.4795.98
2013:Q1100.0498.72
2013:Q2103.13101.77
2013:Q3106.32105.18
2013:Q4109.62108.68

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2012:Q1.

Middle-left panel
House Price Index

Quarterly average
2007:Q1 = 100

Period Index Dec. TB
2007:Q1100.00ND
2007:Q297.34ND
2007:Q394.50ND
2007:Q491.56ND
2008:Q188.04ND
2008:Q284.12ND
2008:Q380.56ND
2008:Q476.14ND
2009:Q172.68ND
2009:Q273.07ND
2009:Q373.73ND
2009:Q474.04ND
2010:Q174.59ND
2010:Q274.35ND
2010:Q372.20ND
2010:Q471.17ND
2011:Q170.22ND
2011:Q270.09ND
2011:Q369.5569.36
2011:Q468.5068.95
2012:Q167.8068.66
2012:Q267.7568.50
2012:Q367.7068.38
2012:Q467.6368.33
2013:Q167.6068.33
2013:Q267.6368.35
2013:Q367.6768.37
2013:Q467.6968.38

Note: Blue shading represents the forecast period, which begins in 2011:Q4.

Source: CoreLogic.

Middle-right panel
Composite Index of Changes in Standards for Bank Loans

Period Net percent tightening
2000:Q15.30
2000:Q27.50
2000:Q317.92
2000:Q430.15
2001:Q143.60
2001:Q232.92
2001:Q326.55
2001:Q440.43
2002:Q131.48
2002:Q217.71
2002:Q318.62
2002:Q417.06
2003:Q119.76
2003:Q28.97
2003:Q30.84
2003:Q4-3.32
2004:Q1-9.83
2004:Q2-13.52
2004:Q3-15.30
2004:Q4-15.06
2005:Q1-19.29
2005:Q2-16.73
2005:Q3-11.48
2005:Q4-8.50
2006:Q1-2.61
2006:Q2-14.37
2006:Q3-16.27
2006:Q40.45
2007:Q17.81
2007:Q25.07
2007:Q320.28
2007:Q453.38
2008:Q162.89
2008:Q276.99
2008:Q383.26
2008:Q487.25
2009:Q172.75
2009:Q253.61
2009:Q340.41
2009:Q431.47
2010:Q13.12
2010:Q2-10.68
2010:Q3-11.29
2010:Q4-4.42
2011:Q1-11.31
2011:Q2-24.25
2011:Q3-22.74
2011:Q4-6.49
2012:Q1-7.96

Source: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.

Bottom-left panel
Nonfinancial Sector Debt

Ratio to GDP

Period Private State and local govs. Federal gov. Sum
2004:Q11.480.200.362.04
2004:Q21.490.200.362.05
2004:Q31.500.200.362.06
2004:Q41.520.210.362.09
2005:Q11.510.210.372.09
2005:Q21.540.210.362.11
2005:Q31.550.200.362.11
2005:Q41.570.200.362.13
2006:Q11.580.200.372.15
2006:Q21.600.200.362.16
2006:Q31.630.200.362.19
2006:Q41.650.200.362.21
2007:Q11.660.200.372.23
2007:Q21.680.200.352.23
2007:Q31.700.200.362.26
2007:Q41.720.200.362.28
2008:Q11.740.200.372.31
2008:Q21.740.200.372.31
2008:Q31.750.200.402.35
2008:Q41.790.210.452.45
2009:Q11.810.210.492.51
2009:Q21.810.210.522.54
2009:Q31.790.210.542.54
2009:Q41.750.210.552.51
2010:Q11.720.210.582.51
2010:Q21.690.210.602.50
2010:Q31.670.210.622.50
2010:Q41.660.210.642.51
2011:Q11.650.200.652.50
2011:Q21.640.200.652.49
2011:Q31.630.200.672.50

Bottom-right panel
Financial Market Stress

Weekly

Period Probability*
8 June 20010.20
15 June 20010.25
22 June 20010.15
29 June 20010.09
6 July 20010.07
13 July 20010.17
20 July 20010.18
27 July 20010.16
3 August 20010.11
10 August 20010.13
17 August 20010.26
24 August 20010.30
31 August 20010.27
7 September 20010.30
14 September 20010.64
21 September 20010.93
28 September 20010.83
5 October 20010.67
12 October 20010.58
19 October 20010.67
26 October 20010.66
2 November 20010.74
9 November 20010.59
16 November 20010.38
23 November 20010.31
30 November 20010.40
7 December 20010.36
14 December 20010.38
21 December 20010.43
28 December 20010.37
4 January 20020.35
11 January 20020.22
18 January 20020.22
25 January 20020.19
1 February 20020.13
8 February 20020.21
15 February 20020.16
22 February 20020.16
1 March 20020.12
8 March 20020.12
15 March 20020.11
22 March 20020.11
29 March 20020.14
5 April 20020.14
12 April 20020.14
19 April 20020.14
26 April 20020.18
3 May 20020.19
10 May 20020.20
17 May 20020.14
24 May 20020.10
31 May 20020.10
7 June 20020.12
14 June 20020.15
21 June 20020.19
28 June 20020.27
5 July 20020.25
12 July 20020.31
19 July 20020.47
26 July 20020.85
2 August 20020.77
9 August 20020.87
16 August 20020.86
23 August 20020.84
30 August 20020.73
6 September 20020.75
13 September 20020.72
20 September 20020.78
27 September 20020.90
4 October 20020.91
11 October 20020.89
18 October 20020.89
25 October 20020.85
1 November 20020.85
8 November 20020.71
15 November 20020.58
22 November 20020.46
29 November 20020.40
6 December 20020.39
13 December 20020.37
20 December 20020.34
27 December 20020.31
3 January 20030.37
10 January 20030.21
17 January 20030.21
24 January 20030.31
31 January 20030.41
7 February 20030.36
14 February 20030.42
21 February 20030.37
28 February 20030.30
7 March 20030.35
14 March 20030.48
21 March 20030.47
28 March 20030.36
4 April 20030.35
11 April 20030.22
18 April 20030.13
25 April 20030.14
2 May 20030.10
9 May 20030.05
16 May 20030.05
23 May 20030.07
30 May 20030.07
6 June 20030.09
13 June 20030.08
20 June 20030.09
27 June 20030.07
4 July 20030.07
11 July 20030.05
18 July 20030.06
25 July 20030.07
1 August 20030.16
8 August 20030.21
15 August 20030.20
22 August 20030.17
29 August 20030.15
5 September 20030.11
12 September 20030.11
19 September 20030.07
26 September 20030.08
3 October 20030.08
10 October 20030.06
17 October 20030.09
24 October 20030.10
31 October 20030.10
7 November 20030.09
14 November 20030.07
21 November 20030.07
28 November 20030.05
5 December 20030.06
12 December 20030.05
19 December 20030.04
26 December 20030.06
2 January 20040.06
9 January 20040.04
16 January 20040.03
23 January 20040.05
30 January 20040.05
6 February 20040.08
13 February 20040.06
20 February 20040.04
27 February 20040.04
5 March 20040.04
12 March 20040.05
19 March 20040.06
26 March 20040.06
2 April 20040.11
9 April 20040.14
16 April 20040.12
23 April 20040.13
30 April 20040.17
7 May 20040.17
14 May 20040.13
21 May 20040.15
28 May 20040.12
4 June 20040.09
11 June 20040.04
18 June 20040.03
25 June 20040.03
2 July 20040.03
9 July 20040.04
16 July 20040.03
23 July 20040.03
30 July 20040.03
6 August 20040.05
13 August 20040.06
20 August 20040.07
27 August 20040.06
3 September 20040.05
10 September 20040.02
17 September 20040.02
24 September 20040.02
1 October 20040.01
8 October 20040.01
15 October 20040.01
22 October 20040.01
29 October 20040.01
5 November 20040.01
12 November 20040.01
19 November 20040.01
26 November 20040.01
3 December 20040.01
10 December 20040.01
17 December 20040.01
24 December 20040.01
31 December 20040.01
7 January 20050.01
14 January 20050.00
21 January 20050.01
28 January 20050.00
4 February 20050.00
11 February 20050.00
18 February 20050.00
25 February 20050.00
4 March 20050.00
11 March 20050.00
18 March 20050.00
25 March 20050.00
1 April 20050.00
8 April 20050.01
15 April 20050.01
22 April 20050.01
29 April 20050.01
6 May 20050.01
13 May 20050.01
20 May 20050.01
27 May 20050.01
3 June 20050.01
10 June 20050.01
17 June 20050.01
24 June 20050.01
1 July 20050.01
8 July 20050.02
15 July 20050.01
22 July 20050.01
29 July 20050.01
5 August 20050.01
12 August 20050.01
19 August 20050.02
26 August 20050.02
2 September 20050.02
9 September 20050.02
16 September 20050.02
23 September 20050.02
30 September 20050.02
7 October 20050.03
14 October 20050.03
21 October 20050.02
28 October 20050.02
4 November 20050.01
11 November 20050.02
18 November 20050.02
25 November 20050.01
2 December 20050.01
9 December 20050.01
16 December 20050.01
23 December 20050.01
30 December 20050.01
6 January 20060.01
13 January 20060.00
20 January 20060.01
27 January 20060.01
3 February 20060.01
10 February 20060.01
17 February 20060.01
24 February 20060.01
3 March 20060.00
10 March 20060.01
17 March 20060.01
24 March 20060.00
31 March 20060.01
7 April 20060.01
14 April 20060.01
21 April 20060.01
28 April 20060.00
5 May 20060.00
12 May 20060.01
19 May 20060.02
26 May 20060.02
2 June 20060.02
9 June 20060.01
16 June 20060.01
23 June 20060.01
30 June 20060.01
7 July 20060.01
14 July 20060.01
21 July 20060.01
28 July 20060.01
4 August 20060.01
11 August 20060.01
18 August 20060.01
25 August 20060.00
1 September 20060.00
8 September 20060.00
15 September 20060.00
22 September 20060.00
29 September 20060.01
6 October 20060.01
13 October 20060.00
20 October 20060.00
27 October 20060.00
3 November 20060.00
10 November 20060.00
17 November 20060.00
24 November 20060.00
1 December 20060.00
8 December 20060.01
15 December 20060.01
22 December 20060.01
29 December 20060.01
5 January 20070.01
12 January 20070.01
19 January 20070.01
26 January 20070.00
2 February 20070.01
9 February 20070.01
16 February 20070.01
23 February 20070.01
2 March 20070.10
9 March 20070.15
16 March 20070.14
23 March 20070.11
30 March 20070.13
6 April 20070.09
13 April 20070.06
20 April 20070.07
27 April 20070.05
4 May 20070.05
11 May 20070.04
18 May 20070.04
25 May 20070.03
1 June 20070.03
8 June 20070.04
15 June 20070.05
22 June 20070.04
29 June 20070.07
6 July 20070.05
13 July 20070.05
20 July 20070.06
27 July 20070.25
3 August 20070.55
10 August 20070.64
17 August 20070.90
24 August 20070.82
31 August 20070.76
7 September 20070.78
14 September 20070.83
21 September 20070.60
28 September 20070.44
5 October 20070.29
12 October 20070.15
19 October 20070.25
26 October 20070.43
2 November 20070.37
9 November 20070.62
16 November 20070.75
23 November 20070.93
30 November 20070.92
7 December 20070.93
14 December 20070.91
21 December 20070.90
28 December 20070.86
4 January 20080.89
11 January 20080.85
18 January 20080.89
25 January 20080.93
1 February 20080.88
8 February 20080.92
15 February 20080.93
22 February 20080.95
29 February 20080.92
7 March 20080.98
14 March 20080.98
21 March 20080.95
28 March 20080.91
4 April 20080.77
11 April 20080.59
18 April 20080.59
25 April 20080.44
2 May 20080.25
9 May 20080.21
16 May 20080.27
23 May 20080.33
30 May 20080.50
6 June 20080.66
13 June 20080.78
20 June 20080.66
27 June 20080.73
4 July 20080.72
11 July 20080.83
18 July 20080.84
25 July 20080.72
1 August 20080.68
8 August 20080.56
15 August 20080.60
22 August 20080.69
29 August 20080.76
5 September 20080.57
12 September 20080.67
19 September 20081.00
26 September 20081.00
3 October 20081.00
10 October 20081.00
17 October 20081.00
24 October 20081.00
31 October 20081.00
7 November 20081.00
14 November 20081.00
21 November 20081.00
28 November 20081.00
5 December 20081.00
12 December 20081.00
19 December 20081.00
26 December 20081.00
2 January 20091.00
9 January 20091.00
16 January 20091.00
23 January 20091.00
30 January 20091.00
6 February 20091.00
13 February 20091.00
20 February 20091.00
27 February 20091.00
6 March 20091.00
13 March 20091.00
20 March 20091.00
27 March 20090.99
3 April 20090.99
10 April 20090.97
17 April 20090.92
24 April 20090.91
1 May 20090.90
8 May 20090.83
15 May 20090.80
22 May 20090.87
29 May 20090.91
5 June 20090.82
12 June 20090.83
19 June 20090.79
26 June 20090.75
3 July 20090.70
10 July 20090.86
17 July 20090.89
24 July 20090.77
31 July 20090.66
7 August 20090.75
14 August 20090.74
21 August 20090.76
28 August 20090.67
4 September 20090.66
11 September 20090.55
18 September 20090.56
25 September 20090.57
2 October 20090.56
9 October 20090.51
16 October 20090.56
23 October 20090.54
30 October 20090.59
6 November 20090.61
13 November 20090.44
20 November 20090.36
27 November 20090.38
4 December 20090.39
11 December 20090.30
18 December 20090.19
25 December 20090.22
1 January 20100.19
8 January 20100.21
15 January 20100.14
22 January 20100.17
29 January 20100.24
5 February 20100.21
12 February 20100.29
19 February 20100.19
26 February 20100.12
5 March 20100.08
12 March 20100.06
19 March 20100.04
26 March 20100.04
2 April 20100.04
9 April 20100.03
16 April 20100.02
23 April 20100.03
30 April 20100.05
7 May 20100.45
14 May 20100.49
21 May 20100.74
28 May 20100.81
4 June 20100.76
11 June 20100.82
18 June 20100.59
25 June 20100.47
2 July 20100.47
9 July 20100.41
16 July 20100.27
23 July 20100.22
30 July 20100.16
6 August 20100.18
13 August 20100.25
20 August 20100.39
27 August 20100.60
3 September 20100.66
10 September 20100.65
17 September 20100.58
24 September 20100.50
1 October 20100.50
8 October 20100.41
15 October 20100.38
22 October 20100.34
29 October 20100.29
5 November 20100.15
12 November 20100.17
19 November 20100.16
26 November 20100.16
3 December 20100.27
10 December 20100.22
17 December 20100.19
24 December 20100.10
31 December 20100.09
7 January 20110.10
14 January 20110.06
21 January 20110.05
28 January 20110.04
4 February 20110.04
11 February 20110.03
18 February 20110.03
25 February 20110.05
4 March 20110.05
11 March 20110.06
18 March 20110.14
25 March 20110.08
1 April 20110.06
8 April 20110.06
15 April 20110.06
22 April 20110.06
29 April 20110.06
6 May 20110.06
13 May 20110.06
20 May 20110.09
27 May 20110.09
3 June 20110.12
10 June 20110.18
17 June 20110.33
24 June 20110.38
1 July 20110.33
8 July 20110.30
15 July 20110.52
22 July 20110.50
29 July 20110.49
5 August 20110.59
12 August 20110.96
19 August 20110.91
26 August 20110.95
2 September 20110.91
9 September 20110.92
16 September 20110.94
23 September 20110.94
30 September 20110.94
7 October 20110.92
14 October 20110.87
21 October 20110.78
28 October 20110.69
4 November 20110.74
11 November 20110.73
18 November 20110.83
25 November 20110.86
2 December 20110.74
9 December 20110.65
16 December 20110.67
23 December 20110.63
30 December 20110.57
6 January 20120.43
13 January 20120.25

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

* Probability of being in a stress event. Return to table

Exhibit 11
Conditions of Large Banking Institutions

Top-left panel
5-year CDS Spreads

Weekly
Percent

Period Morgan Stanley Bank of America Goldman Sachs Citigroup Wells Fargo JP Morgan
8 April 20111.361.311.121.210.780.70
15 April 20111.401.341.151.240.820.76
22 April 20111.421.351.171.240.810.76
29 April 20111.441.331.151.230.810.75
6 May 20111.451.311.201.240.810.76
13 May 20111.461.361.311.250.840.78
20 May 20111.461.391.411.260.840.79
27 May 20111.471.451.501.270.850.78
3 June 20111.561.521.561.360.900.81
10 June 20111.671.721.561.521.050.86
17 June 20111.721.721.501.511.030.84
24 June 20111.831.831.591.601.100.90
1 July 20111.601.521.331.320.890.75
8 July 20111.651.601.391.380.920.82
15 July 20111.771.771.501.501.020.93
22 July 20111.701.671.401.410.950.87
29 July 20111.801.801.521.521.011.00
5 August 20111.992.081.651.641.141.13
12 August 20112.673.182.021.921.211.19
19 August 20112.913.472.152.161.281.27
26 August 20113.133.302.372.321.311.33
2 September 20113.083.332.232.271.281.28
9 September 20113.413.602.542.501.351.37
16 September 20113.023.312.272.251.201.22
23 September 20114.414.073.042.801.531.57
30 September 20114.924.263.303.191.611.62
7 October 20114.394.023.642.951.581.59
14 October 20113.973.743.452.491.441.43
21 October 20113.773.683.272.461.501.46
28 October 20113.203.172.662.071.321.28
4 November 20114.043.613.172.421.521.47
11 November 20114.493.883.522.581.581.54
18 November 20114.924.193.902.901.651.67
25 November 20115.414.984.303.271.841.82
2 December 20114.234.263.202.541.501.49
9 December 20114.204.113.192.561.471.49
16 December 20114.294.133.222.781.491.48
23 December 20114.244.123.222.771.481.47
30 December 20114.214.133.322.841.471.47
6 January 20123.883.793.192.751.361.34
13 January 20123.743.473.012.441.311.35
20 January 20123.253.072.552.251.161.26

Source: Markit.

Top-right panel
Stock Prices

Weekly
April 26, 2011 = 100

Period Wells Fargo JP Morgan Citigroup Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Bank of America
8 April 2011109.51103.81101.11105.02105.41110.26
15 April 2011103.5199.4898101.21104.36104.84
22 April 2011NDNDNDNDNDND
29 April 2011100.81101.11101.7898.52101.36100.41
6 May 201198.2599.82100.2297.9397.82100.66
13 May 201197.1295.6392.0892.2993.5397.54
20 May 201197.3795.5890.9788.0792.3694.66
27 May 201197.8694.8390.8890.793.395.57
3 June 201193.492.1288.3988.5289.692.28
10 June 201191.490.9684.1188.9187.9288.42
17 June 201195.0590.4284.9589.7688.4787.44
24 June 201194.8187.5287.8285.6386.0986.12
1 July 201199.7292.7195.189.3892.0990.72
8 July 201198.4290.8593.2187.786.4487.6
15 July 201194.5289.1585.1385.1481.7381.86
22 July 2011101.3394.0689.388.6392.6482.92
29 July 201197.1690.1985.0688.2886.479.47
5 August 201188.0783.8574.1981.8877.7666.83
12 August 201184.2880.0666.2276.1865.658.87
19 August 201181.6176.659.3973.162.1357.06
26 August 201185.8980.7466.273.0964.5163.55
2 September 201184.5277.216370.2461.9859.44
9 September 201182.1771.5259.3267.0959.3357.22
16 September 201187.1574.5464.3170.5363.8959.28
23 September 201182.7765.9755.4262.4453.2951.72
30 September 201184.2467.1556.8462.0452.4750.16
7 October 201185.7169.0554.6460.8155.3248.36
14 October 201193.1671.736363.4759.150.74
21 October 201191.8975.1767.2266.9866.1152.96
28 October 201194.5982.5375.7976.0175.2260.26
4 November 201189.1576.4267.3368.9265.1353.2
11 November 201190.0374.8565.0966.763.7350.9
18 November 201186.6668.8758.3260.355.3647.37
25 November 201182.5264.0752.4458.2351.6642.36
2 December 201191.5172.7262.5264.0560.4646.31
9 December 201194.4574.6363.8566.8263.8146.96
16 December 201191.1971.7357.7759.3458.3642.69
23 December 201197.5475.5160.9461.7761.3945.98
30 December 201196.7474.7858.3959.5658.9445.65
6 January 2012101.5880.1163.3661.5361.9450.74
13 January 2012103.9381.3868.2265.1864.7854.27
20 January 2012107.284.6465.7871.6271.6458.05

Source: Bloomberg.

Middle panel
Market Equity Ratios

Year-end
Percent

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BofA10.454.126.976.202.76
Wells Fargo16.108.4610.8912.5811.09
Citi6.602.005.217.294.20
JP Morgan9.255.548.407.875.72
Goldman Sachs7.414.3610.059.354.83
Morgan Stanley5.272.695.305.253.87

Note: Calculated as ratios of market value of common equity to estimated market value of assets.

Source: Bloomberg.

Bottom-left panel
Conditional Value at Risk (CoVar)

CoVaR is an estimate of an extreme loss to the financial system that would be expected to occur if a particular firm suffered from extreme distress.

Bottom-right panel
CoVaR

Period Jan. 2007 = 100
January 2007100.00
February 200794.35
March 2007152.87
April 2007134.65
May 2007150.51
June 2007154.31
July 2007174.26
August 2007281.75
September 2007263.91
October 2007245.53
November 2007351.57
December 2007300.57
January 2008330.73
February 2008319.51
March 2008353.41
April 2008275.61
May 2008236.19
June 2008275.69
July 2008381.01
August 2008283.94
September 2008349.71
October 2008763.30
November 2008961.26
December 2008707.77
January 2009760.19
February 2009776.56
March 2009574.33
April 2009615.58
May 2009582.63
June 2009540.45
July 2009458.15
August 2009418.97
September 2009392.06
October 2009439.16
November 2009439.18
December 2009361.98
January 2010374.21
February 2010412.32
March 2010296.01
April 2010290.72
May 2010568.64
June 2010545.16
July 2010543.32
August 2010462.49
September 2010415.36
October 2010400.42
November 2010394.70
December 2010342.80
January 2011328.24
February 2011307.44
March 2011456.96
April 2011339.56
May 2011344.78
June 2011407.38
July 2011362.19
August 2011752.40
September 2011754.44
October 2011694.37
November 2011615.01
December 2011543.11

Note: For Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, BONY, and State Street.

Exhibit 12
Risks to Financial Institutions

Top-left panel
Alternative Scenario: Severe Euro Stress

Top-right panel
Effects on Banks

Middle panel
Liabilities Structure of Large Bank Holding Companies

Percent of total assets

Wells Fargo BofA Citi JP Morgan Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley
Total equity10.710.49.38.07.58.8
Long-term debt5.210.211.48.518.019.1
Deposits68.647.044.047.74.48.3
Short-term debt3.16.17.07.57.96.7
Repo & fed funds2.611.211.610.516.017.3
Other short-term liabilities9.915.216.717.846.239.7
Memo: Total assets ($billions)1,3052,2211,9362,289949795

Source: FR Y-9C.

Bottom-left panel
Dealers Reporting Increased Attention to Exposure to Other Dealers

Period Net percent
2010:Q255.00
2010:Q310.00
2010:Q415.00
2011:Q125.00
2011:Q225.00
2011:Q376.19
2011:Q490.00

Source: Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey.

Bottom-right panel
Vulnerabilities

Exhibit 13 (Last)
Money Market Funds and Policy Initiatives

Top-left panel
Taxable Institutional Money Market Fund Assets

Weekly
Billions of dollars

Period Prime Government
10 January 2007980.27300.87
17 January 2007964.06298.45
24 January 2007976.95299.75
31 January 2007946.57299.85
7 February 2007967.20301.62
14 February 2007971.22301.71
21 February 2007981.52306.58
28 February 2007968.59304.84
7 March 2007988.61304.20
14 March 2007982.84302.36
21 March 2007988.00299.12
28 March 2007987.54301.91
4 April 2007999.33303.91
11 April 20071008.86304.87
18 April 2007988.65306.47
25 April 2007991.27307.46
2 May 20071004.72308.39
9 May 20071013.51310.33
16 May 20071012.95320.32
23 May 20071017.12321.43
30 May 20071006.73322.61
6 June 20071030.99325.12
13 June 20071032.76325.56
20 June 20071029.56327.10
27 June 20071028.82332.85
4 July 20071040.37332.06
11 July 20071056.43330.95
18 July 20071050.03330.42
25 July 20071055.49333.04
1 August 20071065.54339.61
8 August 20071096.10346.07
15 August 20071100.07380.54
22 August 20071100.57425.40
29 August 20071076.22438.12
5 September 20071099.16450.86
12 September 20071117.64460.60
19 September 20071126.11462.95
26 September 20071151.72466.34
3 October 20071186.31461.31
10 October 20071202.12459.19
17 October 20071216.34457.61
24 October 20071249.11468.64
31 October 20071217.16478.06
7 November 20071254.42493.31
14 November 20071259.63500.39
21 November 20071240.30518.95
28 November 20071234.86537.01
5 December 20071251.21554.19
12 December 20071241.39567.04
19 December 20071219.64584.50
26 December 20071208.93591.10
2 January 20081207.13595.61
9 January 20081242.77597.66
16 January 20081248.30593.03
23 January 20081282.73610.87
30 January 20081291.51624.66
6 February 20081319.53630.55
13 February 20081334.52642.22
20 February 20081327.42669.23
27 February 20081324.00689.03
5 March 20081331.73698.14
12 March 20081313.21714.48
19 March 20081287.26738.73
26 March 20081321.08748.13
2 April 20081306.53747.44
9 April 20081335.50751.56
16 April 20081312.58735.75
23 April 20081328.53730.15
30 April 20081292.29719.44
7 May 20081324.71722.08
14 May 20081341.01730.42
21 May 20081364.80725.70
28 May 20081365.39721.50
4 June 20081410.86693.38
11 June 20081414.72688.78
18 June 20081390.55674.06
25 June 20081391.27670.11
2 July 20081390.61668.26
9 July 20081422.50678.09
16 July 20081411.22676.61
23 July 20081423.60672.31
30 July 20081415.60675.85
6 August 20081422.17685.33
13 August 20081435.70688.63
20 August 20081441.79684.54
27 August 20081366.05697.44
3 September 20081375.74696.97
10 September 20081377.09694.21
17 September 20081184.34776.02
24 September 20081053.08910.62
1 October 2008980.73987.74
8 October 2008962.421038.08
15 October 2008967.151063.04
22 October 2008973.261081.69
29 October 2008981.171093.94
5 November 2008978.021118.25
12 November 2008995.331124.76
19 November 20081018.731135.10
26 November 20081024.011160.92
3 December 20081030.621173.06
10 December 20081053.011187.40
17 December 20081057.731179.30
24 December 20081091.801181.20
31 December 20081100.581192.12
7 January 20091123.301203.87
14 January 20091153.901204.52
21 January 20091146.881189.65
28 January 20091157.361198.15
4 February 20091167.411189.81
11 February 20091172.371188.82
18 February 20091176.871163.75
25 February 20091180.861168.30
4 March 20091179.461174.95
11 March 20091177.171165.32
18 March 20091165.711136.05
25 March 20091171.211140.26
1 April 20091169.771129.62
8 April 20091183.811131.29
15 April 20091182.231116.53
22 April 20091191.451113.51
29 April 20091199.601113.50
6 May 20091203.861106.66
13 May 20091213.861109.79
20 May 20091216.501092.77
27 May 20091221.351110.87
3 June 20091219.241097.58
10 June 20091223.021094.82
17 June 20091193.581058.64
24 June 20091222.571071.82
1 July 20091211.191047.96
8 July 20091223.771040.77
15 July 20091222.571028.95
22 July 20091243.651024.60
29 July 20091233.851022.12
5 August 20091226.231001.53
12 August 20091227.95996.83
19 August 20091232.14983.42
26 August 20091238.33987.09
2 September 20091237.07972.17
9 September 20091226.89965.93
16 September 20091200.19947.19
23 September 20091210.57954.86
30 September 20091181.54946.12
7 October 20091202.85940.97
14 October 20091199.04912.22
21 October 20091190.56903.30
28 October 20091193.82906.29
4 November 20091179.41889.37
11 November 20091185.84885.01
18 November 20091193.10885.03
25 November 20091190.06884.92
2 December 20091191.58877.10
9 December 20091201.74876.78
16 December 20091175.39860.20
23 December 20091176.95861.68
30 December 20091178.70885.06
6 January 20101187.61883.80
13 January 20101191.42876.73
20 January 20101183.50847.83
27 January 20101174.65842.87
3 February 20101165.87836.08
10 February 20101162.48839.64
17 February 20101148.74812.38
24 February 20101156.87810.65
3 March 20101139.92794.21
10 March 20101133.70777.46
17 March 20101092.87752.29
24 March 20101104.11743.52
31 March 20101083.31743.51
7 April 20101081.63727.69
14 April 20101067.96700.34
21 April 20101053.66690.19
28 April 20101058.34690.38
5 May 20101047.64684.16
12 May 20101038.17707.08
19 May 20101019.91691.45
26 May 20101019.32694.73
2 June 20101008.77694.15
9 June 20101014.78694.85
16 June 2010988.95686.75
23 June 20101003.73690.16
30 June 2010995.04700.62
7 July 20101015.49688.64
14 July 20101016.02678.88
21 July 20101018.55663.14
28 July 20101026.11663.15
4 August 20101038.17669.75
11 August 20101045.30676.06
18 August 20101054.45672.95
25 August 20101060.87677.37
1 September 20101067.74665.28
8 September 20101076.36664.87
15 September 20101058.40665.19
22 September 20101067.07652.01
29 September 20101066.65660.20
6 October 20101069.86660.31
13 October 20101073.85653.76
20 October 20101071.54644.34
27 October 20101086.30657.03
3 November 20101082.18655.39
10 November 20101087.98656.34
17 November 20101084.02653.90
24 November 20101097.22655.33
1 December 20101096.00657.28
8 December 20101103.67673.24
15 December 20101072.63667.40
22 December 20101066.51659.37
29 December 20101071.26674.31
5 January 20111066.39660.97
12 January 20111080.03654.33
19 January 20111068.55632.15
26 January 20111074.82630.05
2 February 20111056.54625.90
9 February 20111067.90626.94
16 February 20111075.10627.46
23 February 20111079.47621.44
2 March 20111076.25621.38
9 March 20111079.52622.58
16 March 20111062.62625.33
23 March 20111064.02615.79
30 March 20111069.17624.69
6 April 20111090.17615.53
13 April 20111094.12619.61
20 April 20111078.91603.81
27 April 20111102.17607.85
4 May 20111105.75606.19
11 May 20111119.74611.65
18 May 20111116.66603.85
25 May 20111123.47607.81
1 June 20111117.34595.25
8 June 20111125.39598.46
15 June 20111090.66596.80
22 June 20111074.12601.97
29 June 20111031.21633.67
6 July 20111019.78643.28
13 July 20111022.15658.16
20 July 20111005.22647.32
27 July 2011994.90620.98
3 August 2011946.75591.21
10 August 2011958.20623.48
17 August 2011945.33638.85
24 August 2011929.75659.47
31 August 2011932.05665.77
7 September 2011938.80666.50
14 September 2011931.93663.43
21 September 2011912.97670.97
28 September 2011915.23686.53
5 October 2011904.60694.96
12 October 2011903.43690.52
19 October 2011904.19690.86
26 October 2011904.87697.79
2 November 2011893.39698.70
9 November 2011902.64708.92
16 November 2011900.59717.83
23 November 2011906.04714.99
30 November 2011892.00737.32
7 December 2011901.14743.86
14 December 2011904.09742.19
21 December 2011896.94762.34
28 December 2011893.15769.43
4 January 2012889.75762.14
11 January 2012908.52761.22
18 January 2012908.02753.52

Source: Investment Company Institute.

Top-right panel
Prime Money Fund Holdings*

Monthly
Percent of assets

Period France Europe ex. France United States Rest of world
31 January 201113.8435.1831.6319.35
28 February 201113.5936.8331.5018.08
31 March 201113.5035.8432.1218.55
29 April 201114.6236.3730.4618.55
31 May 201115.2837.1629.2518.31
30 June 201114.3634.5831.1319.93
29 July 201113.2133.8432.5820.37
31 August 201110.2433.3834.6921.69
30 September 20116.9332.8436.4623.76
31 October 20116.2232.8137.5523.42
30 November 20113.4833.1437.9725.41
30 December 20112.4931.2038.5327.78

* By location of issuer. Return to text

Note: Confidential.

Source: SEC.

Middle-left panel
Maturity Distribution of Prime MMF European Holdings

Monthly
Billions of dollars

Period Overnight 1 week 30 days > 30 days Sum
December 2010168.2116.3121.3456.7862.5
January 2011216.9102.7163.3402.4885.3
February 2011226.094.2135.6459.0914.8
March 2011185.5118.6127.4450.4881.9
April 2011217.3106.0113.2507.4943.9
May 2011242.375.9112.6533.4964.2
June 2011193.788.391.1469.4842.5
July 2011214.978.0112.5370.7776.1
August 2011242.1101.594.7313.1751.4
September 2011191.1106.2104.5259.9661.7
October 2011187.9109.3120.6230.5648.3
November 2011191.897.588.9228.1606.3
December 2011170.598.8101.0180.1550.4

Note: Confidential.

Source: SEC.

Middle-right panel
Exposures of Prime U.S. MMFs to France

Percent of fund assets Number of funds
0117
0-0.522
0.5-347
3-530
5-1023
10+19

Note: Confidential.

Source: SEC.

Bottom panel
Policy Initiatives


Appendix 5: Materials used by Ms. Zickler


Material for Briefing on
FOMC Participants' Economic and Policy Projections

Joyce Zickler
January 24, 2012

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

Exhibit 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Change in real GDP

Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Actual 2.2 -3.3 -0.5 3.1 1.6 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.0 3.8 4.3 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.7 3.2 4.0 2.6
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.2 2.8 3.3 2.3
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.2

Unemployment rate

Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Actual 4.8 6.9 9.9 9.6 8.7 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 8.6 8.2 7.7 6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.5 8.1 7.6 6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.2 7.4 6.7 5.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 7.8 7.0 6.3 5.0

PCE inflation

Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Actual 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.5 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0

Core PCE inflation

Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Actual 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.7 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.0 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.5 1.5 1.6
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.3 1.4 1.4

Note: Actual fourth-quarter 2011 values for the change in real GDP and for both measures of PCE inflation have not yet been published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the plotted values of these variables for 2011 are the median estimates taken from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's January survey of primary dealers.

Exhibit 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy

Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming

  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of Participants 3 3 5 4 2

Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year.

Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming

Number of Participants With Projected Targets

Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End
(Percent)
2012 2013 2014 Longer run
0.00 - 0.3714116 
0.38 - 0.62112 
0.63 - 0.87 21 
0.88 - 1.12212 
1.13 - 1.37    
1.38 - 1.62  1 
1.63 - 1.87 1  
1.88 - 2.12 11 
2.13 - 2.37    
2.38 - 2.62  3 
2.63 - 2.87  1 
2.88 - 3.12    
3.13 - 3.37    
3.38 - 3.62    
3.63 - 3.87   1
3.88 - 4.12   7
4.13 - 4.37   3
4.38 - 4.62   6

Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percent) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Exhibit 3. Scatter Plot of Unemployment and PCE Inflation Projections in the Liftoff Year

Projections

Liftoff Year Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation
20127.82.0
20128.21.8
20128.41.8
20137.02.3
20137.81.8
20138.12.0
20146.62.0
20146.71.8
20147.12.0
20147.22.0
20147.41.5
20156.31.7
20156.51.7
20157.01.5
20157.42.0
20166.21.7
20166.52.9

Exhibit 4. Economic projections for 2012-2014 and over the longer run (percent)

Change in real GDP

2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Central Tendency 2.2 to 2.7 2.8 to 3.2 3.3 to 4.0 2.3 to 2.6
November projections 2.5 to 2.9 3.0 to 3.5 3.0 to 3.9 2.4 to 2.7
Range 2.1 to 3.0 2.4 to 3.8 2.8 to 4.3 2.2 to 3.0
November projections 2.3 to 3.5 2.7 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.5 2.2 to 3.0
Memo: Tealbook 2.1 2.4 3.6 2 1/2
November Tealbook 2.5 3.2 3.9 2 1/2

Unemployment rate

2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Central Tendency 8.2 to 8.5 7.4 to 8.1 6.7 to 7.6 5.2 to 6.0
November projections 8.5 to 8.7 7.8 to 8.2 6.8 to 7.7 5.2 to 6.0
Range 7.8 to 8.6 7.0 to 8.2 6.3 to 7.7 5.0 to 6.0
November projections 8.1 to 8.9 7.5 to 8.4 6.5 to 8.0 5.0 to 6.0
Memo: Tealbook 8.6 8.2 7.8 5 1/4
November Tealbook 8.6 8.1 7.3 5 1/4

PCE inflation

2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Central Tendency 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 2.0
November projections 1.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0
Range 1.3 to 2.5 1.4 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.1 2.0
November projections 1.4 to 2.8 1.4 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.4 1.5 to 2.0
Memo: Tealbook 1.4 1.3 1.5 2
November Tealbook 1.4 1.4 1.5 2

Core PCE inflation

2012 2013 2014
Central Tendency 1.5 to 1.8 1.5 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0
November projections 1.5 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.0
Range 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0
November projections 1.3 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.2
Memo: Tealbook 1.5 1.4 1.4
November Tealbook 1.5 1.4 1.4

Note: The changes in real GDP and inflation are measured Q4/Q4


Exhibit 5. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Histograms, eight panels.

Uncertainty about GDP growth

Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 0 1 16
November projections 0 1 16

Uncertainty about the unemployment rate

Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 0 3 14
November projections 0 3 14

Uncertainty about PCE inflation

Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 1 6 10
November projections 1 4 12

Uncertainty about core PCE inflation

Number of participants

Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 1 7 9
November projections 1 5 11

Risks to GDP growth

Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 11 6 0
November projections 11 6 0

Risks to the unemployment rate

Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 1 5 11
November projections 0 6 11

Risks to PCE inflation

Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 3 11 3
November projections 4 10 3

Risks to core PCE inflation

Number of participants

Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 3 11 3
November projections 4 10 3

Appendix 6: Materials used by Mr. English


Material for
FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives

Bill English
January 24-25, 2012

Class I FOMC - Restricted (FR)

December FOMC Statement

[Note: In the January FOMC Statement Alternatives, emphasis (strike-through) indicates strike-through text in the original document, and strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]

January FOMC Statement--Alternative A

January FOMC Statement--Alternative B

January FOMC Statement--Alternative C

December 2011 Directive

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee directs the Desk to continue the maturity extension program it began in September to purchase, by the end of June 2012, Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of $400 billion, and to sell Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less with a total face value of $400 billion. The Committee also directs the Desk to maintain its existing policies of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues and of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in the System Open Market Account in agency mortgage-backed securities in order to maintain the total face value of domestic securities at approximately $2.6 trillion. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.


[Note: In the January 2012 Directive Alternatives, emphasis (strike-through) indicates strike-through text in the original document, and strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]

January 2012 Directive--Alternative A

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee directs the Desk to continue the maturity extension program it began in September to purchase, by the end of June 2012, Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of $400 billion, and to sell Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less with a total face value of $400 billion. [ The Committee also directs the Desk to execute purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities by the end of January 2013 in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to approximately $3.1 trillion. | The Committee also directs the Desk to execute purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account by approximately $40 billion per month. ] The Committee also directs the Desk to maintain its existing policies of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues and of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in the System Open Market Account in agency mortgage-backed securities in order to maintain the total face value of domestic securities at approximately $2.6 trillion. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

January 2012 Directive--Alternative B

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee directs the Desk to continue the maturity extension program it began in September to purchase, by the end of June 2012, Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of $400 billion, and to sell Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less with a total face value of $400 billion. The Committee also directs the Desk to maintain its existing policies of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues and of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in the System Open Market Account in agency mortgage-backed securities in order to maintain the total face value of domestic securities at approximately $2.6 trillion. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

January 2012 Directive--Alternative C

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee directs the Desk to continue modify the maturity extension program it began in September so as to purchase, by the end of June February 2012, Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of $400 $200 billion, and to sell Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less with a total face value of $400 $200 billion. The Committee also directs the Desk to maintain its existing policies of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues and of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in the System Open Market Account in agency mortgage-backed securities in order to maintain the total face value of domestic securities at approximately $2.6 trillion. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

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Last Update: January 5, 2018