IFDP Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than IFDP Working Papers.

China's Footprints on the Global Economy: Remarks delivered at the Second IMF and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Research Workshop on the Chinese Economy

This note explores some key aspects of China’s economic rise and the spillovers to the rest of the world that this rise has created. It then examines, using the Federal Reserve Board’s large-scale global model (SIGMA), the potential consequences for the global economy were China’s economy to slow sharply. Although the probability of such an event is low, a sharp slowdown of Chinese economic growth could have significant consequences for the global economy.

The Sensitivity of the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate to Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations

This note summarizes recent work in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board on the relationship between movements in exchange rates and monetary policy expectations.

Does Automation Drive the Labor Market?

Colin Caines, Florian Hoffmann, and Gueorgui Kambourov

In this note we question the emerging view that automation is a primary driver of wage and employment outcomes in labor markets.

Recoveries and Trade: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

Caitlin Hegarty and Beth Anne Wilson

This note examines the connection between a country's exchange rate regime and the strength of its recovery from recessions.

Constructing a Dictionary for Financial Stability

Ricardo Correa, Keshav Garud, Juan-Miguel Londono-Yarce, and Nathan Mislang

In this note, we explain in detail how we made word-level choices in our dictionary.  In the note, we also consolidate our lessons from this process into a framework for thinking about dictionary construction.

Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt: How Concerned Should We Be?

Daniel Beltran, Keshav Garud, and Aaron Rosenblum

Nonfinancial corporate (NFC) debt in emerging market economies (EMEs) has tripled since the global financial crisis (GFC), reaching roughly $25 trillion, or 112 percent of GDP, in mid-2016.

Milton Friedman and Data Adjustment

Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry, and Stedman B. Hood

When empirically modelling the U.S. demand for money, Milton Friedman more than doubled the observed initial stock of money to account for a "changing degree of financial sophistication" in the United States relative to the United Kingdom. This note discusses effects of this adjustment on Friedman's empirical models.

Corporate Buybacks and Capital Investment: An International Perspective

In recent years, a great deal of attention has been paid in the United States to the simultaneous occurrence of relatively weak corporate capital investment (especially at this point in the business cycle) and historically elevated net share buybacks.

The Effect of the GST on Indian Growth

Eva Van Leemput and Ellen A. Wiencek

In the summer of 2016, the Indian Congress approved the Goods and Services Tax (GST) legislation to simplify the current multilayered federal, state, and local indirect tax structure.

Disclaimer: IFDP Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than IFDP Working Papers.

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Last Update: February 21, 2017