FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers

Cyclicality and the Severity of the U.S. Supervisory Stress Test: 2014 to 2018

Jose Berrospide, Andrew Cohen, Ronel Elul (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), David Hou, Aytek Malkhozov, Marc Rodriguez, and Robert Sarama1

In this study, we provide a measure of the severity of the 2014-2018 US supervisory stress tests, and examine how that severity measure has evolved.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2393

Assessing the Resiliency of the Banking Industry to a Commercial Real Estate Price Shock

In order to assess the resiliency of the non-Dodd-Frank Act stress test (DFAST) bank holding companies (BHCs), this note uses the loan-loss rate information in the public disclosure documents from DFAST 2017 and 2018.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2380

Weekly Hours, Overtime, and Employment of Manufacturing Production Workers: Fluctuations over the Business Cycle

This note analyzes how weekly hours, overtime, and employment of production workers move over the business cycle.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2385

There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions

Which term spread, or term spread derived, measure is the most accurate predictor of recessions? The author conducts a robustness analysis of different spreads and shows that there is no single most accurate predictor at any horizon.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2367

Tips from TIPS: Update and Discussions

Don Kim, Cait Walsh (Columbia Business School), and Min Wei

In this Note, we update and extend the estimation to a longer period from 1983 to the present.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2355

Assessing the size of the risks posed by life insurers' nontraditional liabilities

This note discusses potential methods for assessing the size of the run risk associated with life insurers’ nontraditional liabilities.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2358

Predicting Future Recessions

This note introduces a general method to derive recession probabilities from forecasts using real-time data in parsimoniously specified logistic regressions.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2338

Changes in Monetary Policy and Banks' Net Interest Margins: A Comparison across Four Tightening Episodes

In this note, we examine how U.S. banks' NIMs have varied over the most recent monetary policy tightening episode compared with the three previous monetary policy tightening episodes.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2352

Indicative Forward-Looking SOFR Term Rates

This note presents indicative forward-looking term rates derived from end-of-day SOFR futures prices. The accompanying data file also includes compound averages of daily SOFR rates.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2347

Estimating System Demand for Reserve Balances Using the 2018 Senior Financial Officer Survey

Thomas Keating, Francis Martinez, Luke Pettit, Marcelo Rezende, Mary-Frances Styczynski, and Alex Thorp

In this Note, we introduce a range of estimates of the banking system’s contemporary demand for reserves based on newly available, confidential micro data from a Senior Financial Officer Survey (SFOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve in September 2018.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2327

The Re-emergence of the Federal Reserve Funds Market in the 1950s

In this note, we highlight the re-emergence of the federal funds market in the 1950s.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2312

The Green Dividend Dilemma: Carbon Dividends Versus Double-Dividends

Stephie Fried, Kevin Novan, and William Peterman

By raising the price of carbon-emitting energy sources, a carbon tax would flexibly incentivize households and businesses to reduce fossil fuel consumption and substitute towards cleaner energy sources. A carbon tax would also generate a substantial stream of government revenue. This raises an important question – how should this revenue be used? In this note, we summarize findings from our recent research (Fried et al. (2018)) that examine this question. 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2340

A New Procedure for Generating the Stochastic Simulations in FRB/US

This note summarizes a new procedure for generating stochastic simulations in FRB/US, a large-scale estimated general equilibrium macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2314

Who is Being Trained in Economics? A New Interactive Website for Exploring the Race, Ethnicity, and Gender of Economics Majors at U.S. Colleges and Universities

Amanda Bayer, Bo Yeon Jang, and David Wilcox

This note provides a brief users guide for the new interactive website that allows visitors to explore data on who is being trained in economics at each college and university in the U.S.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2329

Residual Seasonality in Core Consumer Price Inflation: An Update

Ekaterina Peneva and Nadia Sadée

In this Note, we take another look at residual seasonality in several measures of core inflation.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2318

Gender Diversity on Bank Board of Directors and Performance

Ann L. Owen and Judit Temesvary

Many papers have studied the effects of boards’ gender composition on firm performance and a few have studied it in the banking industry specifically. In this Note, we study this issue using a newly compiled annual dataset on bank boards and financial performance.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2270

Living at Home Ain't Such a Drag (on Spending): Young Adults' Spending In and Out of Their Parents' Home

In this Note, we quantify the net change in annual spending by a young adult who has just moved out of her parents’ home.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2301

Are Disappearing Employer Pensions Contributing to Rising Wealth Inequality?

Focusing our attention on families close to retirement, we consider the interplay between employer-sponsored retirement wealth and Social Security.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2308

Revisions to the Federal Reserve Dollar Indexes

Bastian von Beschwitz, Christopher G. Collins, and Deepa D. Datta

This note details the construction of the foreign exchange rate indexes and describes the motives for the changes to the methodology. Data appendix available here

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2573-2129.48

The Information in Interest Coverage Ratios of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Sector

Francisco Palomino, Stephen Paolillo, Ander Perez-Orive, and Gerardo Sanz-Maldonado

Using firm-level data, we find significant variability in interest coverage ratios--across firms and economic sectors and across time--that suggests that critical ICR levels depend on firm- or sector-specific economic conditions.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2290

A Simple Macro-Finance Measure of Risk Premia in Fed Funds Futures

Anthony Diercks and Uri Carl

In this Note, we use rolling covariances between real and nominal activity in a regression framework, combined with a model averaging approach, to uncover intuitive dynamics in the term premium.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2305

Household and Nonprofit Balance Sheets in the Financial Accounts of the United States

Elizabeth Holmquist

This Note describes new supplemental tables in the Financial Accounts of the United States that provide separate balance sheets for households and nonprofit organizations.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2313

Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers.

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Last Update: January 04, 2019