FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers

Help Wanted: Evaluating Labor Shortages in Manufacturing

In this note, we examine the extent of labor shortages for the manufacturing sector.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2164

A Not-So-Great Recovery in Consumption: What is holding back household spending?

Historically, aggregate consumption has closely tracked disposable personal income, government transfers, and household net wealth. In this note, we show that this empirical relationship has broken down in recent years and explore potential explanations for why consumers--at least in the aggregate--may not be spending in line with recent income and wealth gains.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2159

Measuring Early-Stage Business Formation

Kimberly Bayard, Emin Dinlersoz (U.S. Census Bureau), Timothy Dunne (University of Notre Dame), John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland), Javier Miranda (U.S. Census Bureau), and John Stevens

New businesses play an important role in overall economic activity. They account for a sizable share of job creation, and they provide a key source of innovation that contributes to overall productivity growth.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2166

Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve

Peter Johansson (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Andrew Meldrum

In this FEDS Note, we examine the predictions of various models and recent surveys of the probability of a recession in the near term.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2146

Some Characteristics of the Decline in Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

Justin Pierce and Emily Wisniewski

In this note, we provide several observations regarding trends in manufacturing capacity utilization rates using data from the Federal Reserve Board and the Census Bureau.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2162

Interest on Reserves and Arbitrage in Post-Crisis Money Markets

Thomas Keating and Marco Macchiavelli

In this note, we use confidential, daily data on wholesale unsecured borrowing and reserve balances to empirically document several salient features of IOR arbitrage trades.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2136

Student Loan Debt and Aggregate Consumption Growth

Although student debt service is undoubtedly a source of severe financial strain for some individuals, in this discussion we show that the direct effect of increased student debt service on aggregate consumption growth is likely small.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2127

From Income to Consumption Inequality? Looking through the Lens of Motor Vehicle Purchases

In this note, we assess the pattern of consumption inequality using an alternative data source--namely, new motor vehicle purchases.

Household Debt-to-Income Ratios in the Enhanced Financial Accounts

Michael Ahn, Mike Batty, and Ralf R. Meisenzahl

This note describes new data on household debt-to-income ratios (DTI) that is being provided in interactive maps as part of the Enhanced Financial Accounts (EFA).

Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Normalization

Michele Cavallo, Marco Del Negro (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), W. Scott Frame (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), Jamie Grasing (University of Maryland), Benjamin Malin (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), and Carlo Rosa

This Note summarizes analysis conducted in our recent FEDS working paper that seeks to understand the fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet normalization program.

Do national account statistics underestimate US real output growth?

Matteo Barigozzi (London School of Economics) and Matteo Luciani

In this note, we introduce a new estimate of GDO obtained from a Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor model estimated on a large dataset of US macroeconomic indicators.

Recent Trends in Small Business Lending and the Community Reinvestment Act

In this note, we analyze data on small business loan originations collected under the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) to document heterogeneity in the recovery in small business lending since the financial crisis.

Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers.

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Last Update: January 02, 2018