FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers
In this study, we provide a measure of the severity of the 2014-2018 US supervisory stress tests, and examine how that severity measure has evolved.
In order to assess the resiliency of the non-Dodd-Frank Act stress test (DFAST) bank holding companies (BHCs), this note uses the loan-loss rate information in the public disclosure documents from DFAST 2017 and 2018.
Weekly Hours, Overtime, and Employment of Manufacturing Production Workers: Fluctuations over the Business Cycle
This note analyzes how weekly hours, overtime, and employment of production workers move over the business cycle.
Which term spread, or term spread derived, measure is the most accurate predictor of recessions? The author conducts a robustness analysis of different spreads and shows that there is no single most accurate predictor at any horizon.
In this Note, we update and extend the estimation to a longer period from 1983 to the present.
This note discusses potential methods for assessing the size of the run risk associated with life insurers’ nontraditional liabilities.
This note introduces a general method to derive recession probabilities from forecasts using real-time data in parsimoniously specified logistic regressions.
Changes in Monetary Policy and Banks' Net Interest Margins: A Comparison across Four Tightening Episodes
In this note, we examine how U.S. banks' NIMs have varied over the most recent monetary policy tightening episode compared with the three previous monetary policy tightening episodes.
This note presents indicative forward-looking term rates derived from end-of-day SOFR futures prices. The accompanying data file also includes compound averages of daily SOFR rates.
In this Note, we introduce a range of estimates of the banking system’s contemporary demand for reserves based on newly available, confidential micro data from a Senior Financial Officer Survey (SFOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve in September 2018.
In this note, we highlight the re-emergence of the federal funds market in the 1950s.
By raising the price of carbon-emitting energy sources, a carbon tax would flexibly incentivize households and businesses to reduce fossil fuel consumption and substitute towards cleaner energy sources. A carbon tax would also generate a substantial stream of government revenue. This raises an important question – how should this revenue be used? In this note, we summarize findings from our recent research (Fried et al. (2018)) that examine this question.
This note summarizes a new procedure for generating stochastic simulations in FRB/US, a large-scale estimated general equilibrium macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.
Who is Being Trained in Economics? A New Interactive Website for Exploring the Race, Ethnicity, and Gender of Economics Majors at U.S. Colleges and Universities
This note provides a brief users guide for the new interactive website that allows visitors to explore data on who is being trained in economics at each college and university in the U.S.
In this Note, we take another look at residual seasonality in several measures of core inflation.
Many papers have studied the effects of boards’ gender composition on firm performance and a few have studied it in the banking industry specifically. In this Note, we study this issue using a newly compiled annual dataset on bank boards and financial performance.
Living at Home Ain't Such a Drag (on Spending): Young Adults' Spending In and Out of Their Parents' Home
In this Note, we quantify the net change in annual spending by a young adult who has just moved out of her parents’ home.
Focusing our attention on families close to retirement, we consider the interplay between employer-sponsored retirement wealth and Social Security.
Using firm-level data, we find significant variability in interest coverage ratios--across firms and economic sectors and across time--that suggests that critical ICR levels depend on firm- or sector-specific economic conditions.
In this Note, we use rolling covariances between real and nominal activity in a regression framework, combined with a model averaging approach, to uncover intuitive dynamics in the term premium.
This Note describes new supplemental tables in the Financial Accounts of the United States that provide separate balance sheets for households and nonprofit organizations.
Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers.