January 2001

Estimating the Value and Interest Rate Risk of Interest-Bearing Transactions Deposits

James M. O'Brien

Abstract:

A valuation model is developed within an interest rate contingent claims framework to estimate NOW account and MMDA premiums and interest rate risk for a sample of commercial banks. As has been previously done, bank deposit rate and balances dynamics are represented by autoregressive processes but with attention given here to alternative specifications and to the deposit rent processes and dynamics implied by these specifications. Alternative deposit rate specifications studied include asymmetric adjustment to market rate changes. In examining the implied deposit rent processes, special attention is given to the importance of distant rent forecasts and forecast dynamics for the deposit premium and interest rate risk estimates.

Keywords: Transactions deposits, valuation, interest rate risk

PDF: Full Paper

Disclaimer: The economic research that is linked from this page represents the views of the authors and does not indicate concurrence either by other members of the Board's staff or by the Board of Governors. The economic research and their conclusions are often preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The Board values having a staff that conducts research on a wide range of economic topics and that explores a diverse array of perspectives on those topics. The resulting conversations in academia, the economic policy community, and the broader public are important to sharpening our collective thinking.

Back to Top
Last Update: February 05, 2021