Accessible Version
A Common Pattern behind Diverging Fortunes: U.S. Tariffs and Exports from Canada and Mexico, Accessible Data
Figure 1: Divergent aggregate exports and tariff exposure
Exports to the U.S., trailing 12-months (2024 calendar-year total = 100) (Left)
| Month | Canada | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 80.77 | 76.94 |
| 2022-02 | 81.98 | 78.41 |
| 2022-03 | 84.35 | 79.79 |
| 2022-04 | 86.85 | 80.83 |
| 2022-05 | 90.00 | 82.23 |
| 2022-06 | 92.48 | 83.73 |
| 2022-07 | 94.49 | 84.54 |
| 2022-08 | 96.48 | 86.30 |
| 2022-09 | 98.24 | 88.05 |
| 2022-10 | 99.73 | 89.27 |
| 2022-11 | 100.12 | 89.98 |
| 2022-12 | 100.84 | 90.27 |
| 2023-01 | 102.05 | 91.75 |
| 2023-02 | 102.56 | 91.90 |
| 2023-03 | 102.34 | 92.38 |
| 2023-04 | 101.76 | 92.38 |
| 2023-05 | 101.14 | 93.21 |
| 2023-06 | 99.97 | 93.44 |
| 2023-07 | 99.21 | 93.92 |
| 2023-08 | 98.98 | 94.25 |
| 2023-09 | 98.90 | 93.70 |
| 2023-10 | 99.24 | 94.13 |
| 2023-11 | 99.92 | 94.36 |
| 2023-12 | 99.57 | 94.40 |
| 2024-01 | 99.23 | 94.31 |
| 2024-02 | 99.55 | 95.32 |
| 2024-03 | 98.95 | 94.99 |
| 2024-04 | 99.34 | 96.03 |
| 2024-05 | 99.33 | 96.70 |
| 2024-06 | 99.53 | 96.17 |
| 2024-07 | 100.47 | 97.47 |
| 2024-08 | 99.71 | 97.71 |
| 2024-09 | 99.60 | 98.06 |
| 2024-10 | 99.28 | 99.20 |
| 2024-11 | 98.94 | 99.51 |
| 2024-12 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| 2025-01 | 101.79 | 100.58 |
| 2025-02 | 102.80 | 100.49 |
| 2025-03 | 103.65 | 101.24 |
| 2025-04 | 102.44 | 101.62 |
| 2025-05 | 101.03 | 101.55 |
| 2025-06 | 99.75 | 102.70 |
| 2025-07 | 98.69 | 103.04 |
| 2025-08 | 97.80 | 103.63 |
| 2025-09 | 97.20 | 104.56 |
| 2025-10 | 96.41 | 106.10 |
| 2025-11 | 95.04 | 106.82 |
| 2025-12 | 93.92 | 108.34 |
| 2026-01 | 90.91 | 108.88 |
| 2026-02 | 89.01 | 110.09 |
| 2026-03 | 88.25 | 112.60 |
| 2026-04 | 89.55 | 115.64 |
Note: The left panel shows exports to the United States summed across two-digit Harmonized System (HS) sectors, as trailing 12-month sums indexed to the 2024 calendar-year total (= 100); the last observation is April 2026. The right panel shows the effective tariff rate (ETR) by country. The ETRs are calculated by applying announced tariff rates and exemptions as of June 2026 to a fixed 2024 U.S. import basket; applied rates were near zero before 2025 under the USMCA.
Source: Haver Analytics; UN Comtrade; Eck et al. (2026); authors’ calculations.
Volume-weighted effective tariff rate on the fixed 2024 basket (percent) (right)
| Country | Volume-weighted effective tariff rate on the fixed 2024 basket (percent) |
|---|---|
| Canada | 5.39 |
| Mexico | 7.99 |
Note: The left panel shows exports to the United States summed across two-digit Harmonized System (HS) sectors, as trailing 12-month sums indexed to the 2024 calendar-year total (= 100); the last observation is April 2026. The right panel shows the effective tariff rate (ETR) by country. The ETRs are calculated by applying announced tariff rates and exemptions as of June 2026 to a fixed 2024 U.S. import basket; applied rates were near zero before 2025 under the USMCA.
Source: Haver Analytics; UN Comtrade; Eck et al. (2026); authors’ calculations.
Figure 2: Export responses by tariff exposure
Canada (left)
| Month | Estimated effect | 95% Confidence interval, lower | 95% Confidence interval, upper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | -1.04 | -7.53 | 5.45 |
| 2022-02 | -0.16 | -4.89 | 4.58 |
| 2022-03 | -0.08 | -3.39 | 3.24 |
| 2022-04 | 1.94 | -2.80 | 6.68 |
| 2022-05 | 1.57 | -4.99 | 8.12 |
| 2022-06 | -0.46 | -7.60 | 6.67 |
| 2022-07 | -3.79 | -12.64 | 5.07 |
| 2022-08 | -3.18 | -10.56 | 4.21 |
| 2022-09 | -3.07 | -6.94 | 0.79 |
| 2022-10 | -1.60 | -4.56 | 1.36 |
| 2022-11 | -0.08 | -3.46 | 3.30 |
| 2022-12 | -3.32 | -6.78 | 0.15 |
| 2023-01 | 0.03 | -3.14 | 3.20 |
| 2023-02 | 0.76 | -1.90 | 3.42 |
| 2023-03 | 2.47 | -1.51 | 6.44 |
| 2023-04 | 5.01 | 0.39 | 9.63 |
| 2023-05 | 3.02 | -1.67 | 7.71 |
| 2023-06 | 3.90 | -2.74 | 10.54 |
| 2023-07 | 2.39 | -1.62 | 6.40 |
| 2023-08 | -0.76 | -3.83 | 2.31 |
| 2023-09 | -0.14 | -4.81 | 4.53 |
| 2023-10 | 0.39 | -3.59 | 4.38 |
| 2023-11 | -1.82 | -5.41 | 1.76 |
| 2023-12 | -0.29 | -3.78 | 3.21 |
| 2024-01 | 0.77 | -1.92 | 3.46 |
| 2024-02 | 3.16 | -0.39 | 6.72 |
| 2024-03 | 2.20 | -2.52 | 6.91 |
| 2024-04 | 1.45 | -0.83 | 3.72 |
| 2024-05 | 0.12 | -2.98 | 3.21 |
| 2024-06 | 0.30 | -2.67 | 3.28 |
| 2024-07 | -3.70 | -8.12 | 0.71 |
| 2024-08 | -0.68 | -2.77 | 1.40 |
| 2024-09 | 0.15 | -3.50 | 3.81 |
| 2024-10 | 1.18 | -2.21 | 4.57 |
| 2024-11 | -1.04 | -6.43 | 4.35 |
| 2024-12 | -3.80 | -7.51 | -0.10 |
| 2025-01 | -1.80 | -4.92 | 1.32 |
| 2025-02 | -2.82 | -6.84 | 1.20 |
| 2025-03 | 2.69 | -3.50 | 8.87 |
| 2025-04 | -0.32 | -3.84 | 3.20 |
| 2025-05 | -1.12 | -5.93 | 3.69 |
| 2025-06 | -4.36 | -10.15 | 1.43 |
| 2025-07 | -8.53 | -13.35 | -3.71 |
| 2025-08 | -7.60 | -11.25 | -3.96 |
| 2025-09 | -6.23 | -12.30 | -0.16 |
| 2025-10 | -4.84 | -11.06 | 1.39 |
| 2025-11 | -5.03 | -11.02 | 0.95 |
| 2025-12 | -8.83 | -16.99 | -0.68 |
| 2026-01 | -9.20 | -18.50 | 0.11 |
| 2026-02 | -5.19 | -13.85 | 3.47 |
| 2026-03 | -4.70 | -12.26 | 2.86 |
| 2026-04 | -6.80 | -15.23 | 1.64 |
Note: Monthly coefficients for a 10 percentage point difference in ETR, relative to the average of the pre-onset months (January 2022 to February 2025). Country regressions include sector and month fixed effects and 2024 export weights. Shading denotes 95 percent confidence intervals, clustered by sector. Both panels use the same vertical scale. The appendix gives the full specification.
Source: Haver Analytics; Eck et al. (2026); authors’ calculations.
Mexico (right)
| Month | Estimated effect | 95% Confidence interval, lower | 95% Confidence interval, upper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | -9.70 | -23.10 | 3.69 |
| 2022-02 | 3.51 | 0.12 | 6.89 |
| 2022-03 | -3.78 | -10.27 | 2.71 |
| 2022-04 | -2.43 | -8.05 | 3.19 |
| 2022-05 | -1.23 | -8.14 | 5.68 |
| 2022-06 | 2.30 | -2.69 | 7.29 |
| 2022-07 | -5.28 | -16.66 | 6.09 |
| 2022-08 | 1.35 | -3.29 | 5.99 |
| 2022-09 | 3.23 | -1.33 | 7.79 |
| 2022-10 | 1.55 | -1.76 | 4.86 |
| 2022-11 | -0.33 | -5.24 | 4.59 |
| 2022-12 | -2.76 | -6.43 | 0.91 |
| 2023-01 | 4.39 | 0.20 | 8.58 |
| 2023-02 | -1.42 | -4.44 | 1.60 |
| 2023-03 | -0.73 | -3.40 | 1.95 |
| 2023-04 | -5.77 | -12.39 | 0.85 |
| 2023-05 | 3.12 | -2.73 | 8.97 |
| 2023-06 | -1.59 | -4.77 | 1.59 |
| 2023-07 | 4.75 | 0.11 | 9.38 |
| 2023-08 | 2.10 | -2.52 | 6.72 |
| 2023-09 | 4.60 | -2.47 | 11.66 |
| 2023-10 | 3.14 | -3.77 | 10.05 |
| 2023-11 | -0.19 | -2.66 | 2.28 |
| 2023-12 | 3.87 | -2.21 | 9.95 |
| 2024-01 | 1.25 | -4.48 | 6.97 |
| 2024-02 | 2.37 | -2.32 | 7.07 |
| 2024-03 | -1.60 | -4.04 | 0.84 |
| 2024-04 | 0.04 | -4.43 | 4.52 |
| 2024-05 | -0.47 | -4.93 | 4.00 |
| 2024-06 | -0.23 | -3.56 | 3.09 |
| 2024-07 | 0.38 | -4.83 | 5.58 |
| 2024-08 | 0.38 | -2.69 | 3.45 |
| 2024-09 | 0.04 | -3.36 | 3.44 |
| 2024-10 | 1.57 | -3.90 | 7.04 |
| 2024-11 | 0.11 | -3.78 | 4.00 |
| 2024-12 | -2.29 | -5.28 | 0.71 |
| 2025-01 | -4.26 | -8.73 | 0.22 |
| 2025-02 | -2.71 | -5.98 | 0.56 |
| 2025-03 | -0.60 | -7.56 | 6.35 |
| 2025-04 | -9.06 | -14.69 | -3.43 |
| 2025-05 | -5.19 | -13.35 | 2.96 |
| 2025-06 | -5.33 | -12.74 | 2.08 |
| 2025-07 | -10.28 | -17.50 | -3.06 |
| 2025-08 | -8.68 | -17.42 | 0.05 |
| 2025-09 | -11.62 | -21.27 | -1.98 |
| 2025-10 | -13.89 | -26.78 | -0.99 |
| 2025-11 | -9.28 | -19.15 | 0.58 |
| 2025-12 | -13.58 | -25.46 | -1.69 |
| 2026-01 | -21.34 | -37.10 | -5.58 |
| 2026-02 | -18.79 | -32.49 | -5.09 |
| 2026-03 | -14.32 | -28.66 | 0.02 |
| 2026-04 | -18.24 | -34.08 | -2.40 |
| 2026-05 | -17.91 | -35.06 | -0.75 |
Note: Monthly coefficients for a 10 percentage point difference in ETR, relative to the average of the pre-onset months (January 2022 to February 2025). Country regressions include sector and month fixed effects and 2024 export weights. Shading denotes 95 percent confidence intervals, clustered by sector. Both panels use the same vertical scale. The appendix gives the full specification.
Source: Haver Analytics; Eck et al. (2026); authors’ calculations.
Figure 3: Sector contributions to aggregate export growth
Canada (left)
| Sector | Percentage point contribution |
|---|---|
| Mineral fuels (HS-27) | -2.9 |
| Vehicles (HS-87) | -2.1 |
| Iron and steel (HS-72) | -0.8 |
| All other sectors | -4.7 |
| Total | -10.5 |
Note: Change in exports to the United States, May 2025–April 2026 compared with calendar year 2024. Selected large contributors are shown separately; all other sectors are combined and calculated as the total minus the displayed contributions. Totals are shown in gray.
Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.
Mexico (right)
| Sector | Percentage point contribution |
|---|---|
| Machinery (HS-84) | 17.3 |
| Vehicles (HS-87) | -2.4 |
| Electrical machinery (HS-85) | 1.2 |
| All other sectors | -0.5 |
| Total | 15.6 |
Note: Change in exports to the United States, May 2025–April 2026 compared with calendar year 2024. Selected large contributors are shown separately; all other sectors are combined and calculated as the total minus the displayed contributions. Totals are shown in gray.
Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.
Figure A1: Export responses across destinations
Canada (left)
| Month | Pre-onset effect before 2025-03, post-onset U.S.-specific effect after 2025-03) | 95% Confidence interval, lower | 95% Confidence interval, upper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | -3.15 | -11.36 | 5.06 |
| 2022-02 | 2.57 | -4.11 | 9.24 |
| 2022-03 | 3.39 | 0.15 | 6.63 |
| 2022-04 | 4.33 | -0.50 | 9.16 |
| 2022-05 | 8.92 | 3.73 | 14.11 |
| 2022-06 | 10.07 | 5.24 | 14.90 |
| 2022-07 | 3.66 | -3.60 | 10.93 |
| 2022-08 | 0.18 | -9.37 | 9.74 |
| 2022-09 | 1.48 | -3.26 | 6.22 |
| 2022-10 | -4.28 | -10.02 | 1.46 |
| 2022-11 | -2.16 | -9.96 | 5.64 |
| 2022-12 | -7.71 | -17.96 | 2.55 |
| 2023-01 | 3.16 | -1.20 | 7.52 |
| 2023-02 | -1.59 | -4.48 | 1.31 |
| 2023-03 | 2.13 | -2.05 | 6.30 |
| 2023-04 | 0.28 | -5.37 | 5.93 |
| 2023-05 | 1.55 | -3.59 | 6.70 |
| 2023-06 | -4.16 | -9.40 | 1.07 |
| 2023-07 | 3.31 | -0.59 | 7.21 |
| 2023-08 | -6.20 | -11.61 | -0.80 |
| 2023-09 | 0.67 | -3.59 | 4.92 |
| 2023-10 | -9.27 | -16.29 | -2.26 |
| 2023-11 | -6.52 | -13.44 | 0.41 |
| 2023-12 | 3.77 | -4.86 | 12.39 |
| 2024-01 | 4.37 | -1.42 | 10.16 |
| 2024-02 | 2.33 | -5.36 | 10.03 |
| 2024-03 | -4.69 | -12.19 | 2.81 |
| 2024-04 | -8.03 | -14.21 | -1.85 |
| 2024-05 | -4.35 | -6.56 | -2.15 |
| 2024-06 | 6.39 | -0.10 | 12.87 |
| 2024-07 | -11.40 | -17.87 | -4.92 |
| 2024-08 | -0.55 | -3.92 | 2.82 |
| 2024-09 | -0.51 | -6.43 | 5.42 |
| 2024-10 | 4.95 | -1.91 | 11.82 |
| 2024-11 | 5.72 | -0.21 | 11.66 |
| 2024-12 | -3.73 | -9.33 | 1.88 |
| 2025-01 | 5.06 | -1.57 | 11.69 |
| 2025-02 | 0.56 | -5.45 | 6.56 |
| 2025-03 | 9.61 | -2.76 | 21.98 |
| 2025-04 | 0.38 | -4.90 | 5.66 |
| 2025-05 | 1.85 | -6.63 | 10.33 |
| 2025-06 | -9.50 | -24.96 | 5.96 |
| 2025-07 | -6.70 | -14.00 | 0.60 |
| 2025-08 | -12.49 | -24.33 | -0.65 |
| 2025-09 | -11.79 | -28.81 | 5.23 |
| 2025-10 | -6.91 | -24.50 | 10.68 |
| 2025-11 | -10.35 | -26.57 | 5.87 |
| 2025-12 | -13.00 | -21.62 | -4.38 |
| 2026-01 | -8.98 | -14.79 | -3.17 |
| 2026-02 | -2.49 | -12.23 | 7.25 |
| 2026-03 | -4.44 | -17.63 | 8.75 |
| 2026-04 | -2.81 | -16.52 | 10.90 |
| 2026-05 | -17.17 | -32.57 | -1.77 |
| 2026-06 | -11.46 | -19.49 | -3.44 |
| 2026-07 | -9.38 | -18.03 | -0.74 |
Note: Monthly coefficients for a 10 percentage point difference in ETR, with the log ratio of U.S. to rest-of-world exports as the outcome, relative to the pre-tariff average. Negative values indicate weaker U.S.-bound performance relative to other destinations. Circles show pre-onset coefficients and the line shows post-onset coefficients. Shading denotes 95 percent confidence intervals, clustered by sector.
Source: UN Comtrade; Eck et al. (2026); authors’ calculations.
Mexico (right)
| Month | Pre-onset effect before 2025-03, post-onset U.S.-specific effect after 2025-03) | 95% Confidence interval, lower | 95% Confidence interval, upper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 3.52 | -2.83 | 9.87 |
| 2022-02 | -9.11 | -19.04 | 0.82 |
| 2022-03 | -12.42 | -20.73 | -4.12 |
| 2022-04 | 9.06 | -2.12 | 20.24 |
| 2022-05 | -11.71 | -21.89 | -1.53 |
| 2022-06 | 6.83 | 1.70 | 11.97 |
| 2022-07 | -4.46 | -16.72 | 7.79 |
| 2022-08 | -5.88 | -19.50 | 7.74 |
| 2022-09 | -12.66 | -31.16 | 5.84 |
| 2022-10 | 2.35 | -4.87 | 9.56 |
| 2022-11 | -6.34 | -21.57 | 8.88 |
| 2022-12 | 2.79 | -4.24 | 9.83 |
| 2023-01 | 3.61 | -6.53 | 13.75 |
| 2023-02 | -7.06 | -15.24 | 1.12 |
| 2023-03 | 0.69 | -5.21 | 6.60 |
| 2023-04 | -1.90 | -14.71 | 10.92 |
| 2023-05 | -5.45 | -11.51 | 0.60 |
| 2023-06 | -4.93 | -10.91 | 1.05 |
| 2023-07 | -0.15 | -6.65 | 6.34 |
| 2023-08 | 4.69 | -0.48 | 9.85 |
| 2023-09 | -5.06 | -9.38 | -0.74 |
| 2023-10 | -0.49 | -6.49 | 5.51 |
| 2023-11 | -6.53 | -17.02 | 3.96 |
| 2023-12 | 6.26 | -13.00 | 25.51 |
| 2024-01 | 19.98 | 7.16 | 32.79 |
| 2024-02 | -1.03 | -9.18 | 7.13 |
| 2024-03 | 0.57 | -5.70 | 6.84 |
| 2024-04 | 8.86 | 3.18 | 14.53 |
| 2024-05 | 0.43 | -8.72 | 9.59 |
| 2024-06 | -5.77 | -14.83 | 3.29 |
| 2024-07 | -10.18 | -20.33 | -0.03 |
| 2024-08 | 4.27 | -9.00 | 17.54 |
| 2024-09 | 20.72 | 0.87 | 40.58 |
| 2024-10 | -7.30 | -15.83 | 1.22 |
| 2024-11 | 4.84 | -2.95 | 12.63 |
| 2024-12 | 11.16 | -7.23 | 29.56 |
| 2025-01 | 7.80 | -0.17 | 15.78 |
| 2025-02 | 20.72 | -3.51 | 44.95 |
| 2025-03 | 13.47 | -2.39 | 29.34 |
| 2025-04 | -3.39 | -12.75 | 5.97 |
| 2025-05 | -5.14 | -16.84 | 6.55 |
| 2025-06 | -12.50 | -17.98 | -7.02 |
| 2025-07 | -12.59 | -21.00 | -4.18 |
| 2025-08 | -4.31 | -12.89 | 4.27 |
| 2025-09 | -11.17 | -23.09 | 0.75 |
| 2025-10 | 2.61 | -9.15 | 14.37 |
| 2025-11 | -10.09 | -15.04 | -5.14 |
| 2025-12 | -13.64 | -25.21 | -2.07 |
| 2026-01 | -33.66 | -61.50 | -5.83 |
| 2026-02 | -19.89 | -36.51 | -3.26 |
| 2026-03 | -17.79 | -28.18 | -7.41 |
| 2026-04 | -5.90 | -13.25 | 1.45 |
| 2026-05 | -20.36 | -37.69 | -3.04 |
| 2026-06 | -16.51 | -23.72 | -9.31 |
| 2026-07 | -9.38 | -18.03 | -0.74 |
Note: Monthly coefficients for a 10 percentage point difference in ETR, with the log ratio of U.S. to rest-of-world exports as the outcome, relative to the pre-tariff average. Negative values indicate weaker U.S.-bound performance relative to other destinations. Circles show pre-onset coefficients and the line shows post-onset coefficients. Shading denotes 95 percent confidence intervals, clustered by sector.
Source: UN Comtrade; Eck et al. (2026); authors’ calculations.