Accessible Version
Another Look at Residual Seasonality in GDP, Accessible Data
Figure 1: Growth Often Slower in First Quarter than Year As a Whole
Percent Change in Real GDP, Annual Rate
| Quarter | Quarterly GDP Growth | Q4/Q4 Growth | First Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1-2004 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| Q2-2004 | 3.0 | 3.1 | |
| Q3-2004 | 3.7 | 3.1 | |
| Q4-2004 | 3.5 | 3.1 | |
| Q1-2005 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| Q2-2005 | 2.1 | 3.0 | |
| Q3-2005 | 3.4 | 3.0 | |
| Q4-2005 | 2.3 | 3.0 | |
| Q1-2006 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 4.9 |
| Q2-2006 | 1.2 | 2.4 | |
| Q3-2006 | 0.4 | 2.4 | |
| Q4-2006 | 3.2 | 2.4 | |
| Q1-2007 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Q2-2007 | 3.1 | 1.9 | |
| Q3-2007 | 2.7 | 1.9 | |
| Q4-2007 | 1.4 | 1.9 | |
| Q1-2008 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.7 |
| Q2-2008 | 2.0 | -2.8 | |
| Q3-2008 | -1.9 | -2.8 | |
| Q4-2008 | -8.2 | -2.8 | |
| Q1-2009 | -5.4 | -0.2 | -5.4 |
| Q2-2009 | -0.5 | -0.2 | |
| Q3-2009 | 1.3 | -0.2 | |
| Q4-2009 | 3.9 | -0.2 | |
| Q1-2010 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Q2-2010 | 3.9 | 2.7 | |
| Q3-2010 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |
| Q4-2010 | 2.5 | 2.7 | |
| Q1-2011 | -1.5 | 1.7 | -1.5 |
| Q2-2011 | 2.9 | 1.7 | |
| Q3-2011 | 0.8 | 1.7 | |
| Q4-2011 | 4.6 | 1.7 | |
| Q1-2012 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Q2-2012 | 1.9 | 1.3 | |
| Q3-2012 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |
| Q4-2012 | 0.1 | 1.3 | |
| Q1-2013 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Q2-2013 | 0.8 | 2.7 | |
| Q3-2013 | 3.1 | 2.7 | |
| Q4-2013 | 4.0 | 2.7 | |
| Q1-2014 | -0.9 | 2.7 | -0.9 |
| Q2-2014 | 4.6 | 2.7 | |
| Q3-2014 | 5.2 | 2.7 | |
| Q4-2014 | 2.0 | 2.7 | |
| Q1-2015 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| Q2-2015 | 2.7 | 2.0 | |
| Q3-2015 | 1.6 | 2.0 | |
| Q4-2015 | 0.5 | 2.0 | |
| Q1-2016 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Q2-2016 | 2.2 | 1.8 | |
| Q3-2016 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |
| Q4-2016 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Q1-2017 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Q2-2017 | 2.6 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Horizontal bars are the percent change in fourth-quarter GDP each year relative to prior fourth quarter. Dashed line is quarterly percent change in GDP, at an annual rate, with dots denoting first quarters. Shaded area denotes recession period: December 2007 - June 2009.
Figure 2: GDP Still Weak in First Quarters After Seasonal Adjustment Changes But GDP Contributions of Subcomponents Shifted
Q1 Growth minus Q4/Q4 Growth, Percentage Point, Average over Period
| 2007-2016 | 2013-2016 | |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | -1.32 | -0.89 |
| Contributions from Subcomponents: | ||
| Government expenditures | -0.28 | -0.07 |
| Inventories | -0.40 | -0.10 |
| Nonresidential structures | -0.11 | 0.05 |
| Exports | -0.57 | -0.44 |
| Personal consumption | -0.05 | -0.36 |
| All Other | 0.09 | 0.03 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 3: Professional Advocacy Nonprofits Reduce First-Quarter GDP Growth in Odd-Numbered Years
GDP Contribution, Percentage Point, Annual Rate
| Professional Advocacy | First Quarter Even Years |
First Quarter Odd Years |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1-2007 | -0.113 | -0.113 | |
| Q2-2007 | -0.044 | ||
| Q3-2007 | -0.014 | ||
| Q4-2007 | 0.020 | ||
| Q1-2008 | 0.169 | 0.169 | |
| Q2-2008 | 0.046 | ||
| Q3-2008 | 0.044 | ||
| Q4-2008 | 0.041 | ||
| Q1-2009 | -0.150 | -0.150 | |
| Q2-2009 | -0.051 | ||
| Q3-2009 | -0.018 | ||
| Q4-2009 | -0.002 | ||
| Q1-2010 | 0.043 | 0.043 | |
| Q2-2010 | 0.097 | ||
| Q3-2010 | 0.082 | ||
| Q4-2010 | 0.020 | ||
| Q1-2011 | -0.115 | -0.115 | |
| Q2-2011 | -0.052 | ||
| Q3-2011 | -0.004 | ||
| Q4-2011 | 0.024 | ||
| Q1-2012 | 0.173 | 0.173 | |
| Q2-2012 | 0.061 | ||
| Q3-2012 | 0.053 | ||
| Q4-2012 | 0.079 | ||
| Q1-2013 | -0.174 | -0.174 | |
| Q2-2013 | -0.061 | ||
| Q3-2013 | -0.005 | ||
| Q4-2013 | -0.014 | ||
| Q1-2014 | 0.061 | 0.061 | |
| Q2-2014 | 0.081 | ||
| Q3-2014 | 0.062 | ||
| Q4-2014 | 0.030 | ||
| Q1-2015 | -0.110 | -0.110 | |
| Q2-2015 | -0.039 | ||
| Q3-2015 | -0.006 | ||
| Q4-2015 | 0.039 | ||
| Q1-2016 | 0.218 | 0.218 | |
| Q2-2016 | 0.076 | ||
| Q3-2016 | 0.085 | ||
| Q4-2016 | 0.091 | ||
| Q1-2017 | -0.187 | -0.187 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Note: Professional advocacy nonprofits includes political organizations.
Last Update:
July 28, 2017