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Can Tariffs Spur Higher Factory Floor Utilization? Accessible Data
Figure 1. Capacity utilization has been subdued
The left graph depicts capacity utilization for NAICS-based manufacturing sector. The y-axis ranges from 70 to 82 percent of capacity while the x-axis ranges from 2016 to 2025. The line shows fluctuations, with a sharp drop in 2020, followed by a recovery to a peak around 80 percent in 2022 then a decline through 2024. The most recent observation for August 2025 is just under 77 percent. A horizontal dashed line labeled “90s average” is shown around the 81 mark. Vertical lines indicate 'Tariffs start' at two points: early 2018 and early 2025.
The right graph depicts two lines: capacity utilization for light vehicles and capacity utilization for iron and steel products. The y-axis ranges from 40 to 90 while the x-axis ranges from 2016 to 2025. The light vehicles line (in black) shows volatility around a downward trend, with early observations close to 85 percent but the most recent observation for August 2025 lying between 65 and 70 percent. The Iron and Steel Products line peaks a bit below 85 percent in late-2021 with the most recent observation for August 2025 lying between 70 and 75 percent. Vertical 'Tariffs start' lines are present at the same years as the left graph.
Note: Percent of capacity, 3-month moving averages. The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020—April 2020.
Source: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve Board). Both light vehicles and iron and steel products are measured using physical product data (vehicles and tons, respectively).
Figure 2. Spare capacity and import protection
The image consists of two scatter plots comparing 'New import protection' on the x-axis to 'Spare capacity' on the y-axis across different industries, represented by numbered orange dots of varying sizes. In both plots, each data point represents an industry, with the size of the points representing the relative importance weight of that industry in aggregate manufacturing production.
The left plot, titled 'Comparison to 10-year peak', has an x-axis ranging from 0 to 0.2 and a y-axis from 0 to 35. A fitted regression line shows a gradual increase from left to right, and a shaded confidence interval area shows that the slope of the regression line is not statistically significant. Most data points cluster below 20 on the y-axis and 0.1 on the x-axis. Selected data points have industry code labels; in the bottom-left quadrant of the chart, there are labels for 3122, 3273, 3254, 311 (the largest dot on the plot), 3241, and 332. In the bottom-right quadrant, there are labels for 3343,6, 3341, 314, 3399, 3352, 316, and 3313. The remaining labeled industry is 315 (a relatively small dot) in the upper-right quadrant. The top-left quadrant has two unlabeled dots that are extreme outliers with spare capacity above 35 percent.
The right plot, titled 'Comparison to 90s average', uses the same x-axis range but its y-axis spans from -10 to 30. It displays a similar trend line with a slight increase but a shaded area revealing a lack of statistical significance. Data points in this plot are more vertically dispersed compared to the left plot. In the top-left quadrant of the chart, there is a label for 3122, a medium-sized dot that is an extreme outlier with spare capacity above 30 percent. In the bottom-left quadrant, there are labels for 3241, 3273, 311 (the largest dot), 3254, and 332. In the bottom-right quadrant, there are labels for 3343,6, 3341, 3399, 316, and 3313. In the top-right quadrant, there are labels for 314, 3352, and 315.
Note: Y axes report percent of capacity. Regression lines reflect regressions of industry spare capacity on new import protection, weighted by industry value added as measured in industrial production data.
Source: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve Board); Census of Manufacturers and USA Trade Online (U.S. Census Bureau); and author calculations.
Figure 3. Recent utilization growth and new import protection
This scatter plot, titled 'Change in Utilization Rates January-August 2025', displays the relationship between 'New import protection' on the x-axis and 'Change in Utilization Rates' on the y-axis. The x-axis ranges from 0 to 0.2, representing new import protection levels, while the y-axis spans from -8 to 10, showing the change in utilization rates in percentage points. Each dot is an industry with the size of the dot corresponding to the relative importance weight of the industry in aggregate manufacturing output. The plot features a gray regression line that slopes down only slightly, with a shaded gray area clearly showing a lack of statistical significance. Selected dots are labeled with their industry code. In the upper-left quadrant, labels for 3122 and 3254 are visible. The upper-right quadrant contains labels for 311, 316, 3341, and 3352. The lower-left quadrant shows labels for 3241, 311 (the largest dot), 3273, 3251, and 332, while the lower-right quadrant includes labels for 3343,6, 315, 3399, and 3313. Some notable points include the highest unlabeled point around 10 on the y-axis and the lowest unlabeled point at about -8 on the y-axis.
Note: Y axis reports the change in capacity utilization in percentage points. Regression line reflects regression of industry change in utilization on new import protection, weighted by industry value added as measured in industrial production data.
Source: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve Board); Census of Manufacturers and USA Trade Online (U.S. Census Bureau); and author calculations.
Figure 4. Reasons for operating below capacity versus new import protection
This image consists of three scatter plots, each showing the relationship between "New import Protection" on the x-axis (ranging from 0 to 0.2) and various reasons for operating below capacity on the y-axis (measured as the share of survey respondents reporting that reason). Industries are represented by orange dots of different sizes corresponding to the relative importance weight of each industry within aggregate manufacturing production. Each plot includes a gray regression line with a shaded confidence interval.
The first plot, titled "insufficient orders," shows the percent of respondents reporting insufficient orders on the y-axis, ranging from about 55 to 85. The regression line indicates a positive correlation between new import protection and insufficient orders with the shaded area indicating that the slope of the line is statistically significant. Most data points fall within or close to the confidence interval. Industries 323 and 322 are extreme outliers on the top left of the plot (indicating relatively low new import protection with high insufficient orders).
The second plot, "insufficient labor," shows the percent of respondents reporting insufficient labor on the y-axis, ranging from about 0 to 45. The trend line suggests a positive correlation between new import protection and insufficient labor with the shaded area indicating that the slope of the line is statistically significant. Data points are more scattered in this plot, though there are few extreme outliers relative to the confidence interval.
The third plot, "insufficient materials," shows the percent of respondents reporting insufficient materials on the y-axis, ranging from about 0 to 27. The trend line is nearly flat, suggesting little correlation between new import protection and insufficient materials, and the shaded area shows no statistical significance of the regression line slope. Data points are widely dispersed. The most notable outliers are 313 and 334, both of which are at the extreme upper area of the graph (high levels of insufficient materials) but in the middle of the x-axis range.
Note: Regression lines reflect regressions of survey respondent percentages (indicated by figure titles) on new import protection, weighted by industry value added as measured in industrial production data.
Source: Source: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve Board); Census of Manufacturers, Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization, and USA Trade Online (U.S. Census Bureau); and author calculations.
Figure 5. Utilization growth and import protection by average production period
This image consists of two scatter plots comparing "New import protection" on the x-axis to "Change in utilization" on the y-axis for different industries, where the size of each dot represents an industry’s relative importance weight in aggregate manufacturing production. Both plots share the same x-axis scale from 0 to 0.2, representing new import protection levels.
The left plot, titled "Below-median APP," shows y-axis values ranging from about -5 to 11. A gray trend line with a shaded confidence interval indicates a positive correlation between new import protection and change in utilization for industries with below-median APP, though the shaded area shows that the slope of this line is not statistically significant. Selected dots are labeled with their industry code. Most data points are clustered in the lower-left quadrant, including labeled dots for 311 (the largest dot), 3241, and 3251. The dots labeled 337 and 3311,2 are close to the regression line in the middle of the x-axis range. The dot labeled 3341 is between 0.15 and 0.2 on the x-axis and a bit below the regression line. Extreme outliers include the dot labeled 3313, which is in the lower-right corner of the chart, and an unlabeled dot at the very top of the chart just above 0.05 on the x-axis.
The right plot, labeled "Above-median APP," displays y-axis values from approximately -8 to 8. The trend line in this plot shows a negative correlation between new import protection and change in utilization for industries with above-median APP, though the shaded area indicates that the regression line slope is not statistically significant. Data points are more scattered across the plot compared to the left graph. Selected dots are labeled with their industry code. Dots lying on or close to the regression line include 3122, 3254, 332, 3399, and 315. Dots labeled 3352 and 316 appear above the regression confidence interval at the far right of the plot. An unlabeled dot appears at the top of the chart near 0.05 on the x-axis, and an unlabeled dot appears at the bottom of the chart near 0.05 on the x-axis.
Note: Y axes report change in capacity utilization in percentage points. APP is “average production period” from Antràs and Tubdenov (2025). Across all industries, the APP has a mean of 81 days and a median of 74 days. Regression lines reflect regressions of industry change in utilization on new import protection, weighted by industry value added as measured in industrial production data.
Source: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve Board); Census of Manufacturers and USA Trade Online (U.S. Census Bureau); Antràs and Tubdenov (2025); and author calculations.