Accessible Version

Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time – Part II, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Theoretical tariff effects by PCE category and country

Percent

PCE Category Canada China Europe Japan Mexico ROA ROW Total tariff effect
New autos 0.417370165 0.114786671 1.093483135 0.5385094 1.350756076 0.717335352 0.041421458 4.273662256
New light trucks 0.155121953 0.368922948 0.330194367 0.104583603 0.206812647 0.376850614 0.091720466 1.634206598
Net purchases of used motor vehicles 0.202900033 0.117537129 0.583431129 0.060405428 0.087375241 0.350305348 0.195281052 1.59723536
Tires 0.04443598 1.494381807 0.298796312 0.086714465 0.058731992 1.060963884 0.154198682 3.198223122
Accessories and parts 0.149460264 0.889725861 0.319968442 0.118044432 0.276308843 0.494560762 0.121989259 2.370057863
Furniture 0.150388502 1.658587528 0.429066936 0.01801982 0.307636685 2.946675875 0.129519602 5.639894948
Clocks, lamps, lighting fixtures, and other household decorative items 0.11518273 1.459836698 0.531263753 0.068683387 0.102835108 0.902342958 0.198664287 3.378808921
Carpets and other floor coverings 0.038343538 1.550648117 0.383314057 0.035245288 0.055529119 2.247557046 0.096040511 4.406677676
Window coverings 0.057419596 1.142510854 0.268113418 0.015849274 0.121760462 1.85784743 0.071025672 3.534526705
Major household appliances 0.080232307 4.401366258 0.416453054 0.219893629 0.300999448 1.510468364 0.06701442 6.99642748
Small electric household appliances 0.066973288 5.015375439 0.428328195 0.217913724 0.297182913 1.653717186 0.064549409 7.744040156
Dishes and flatware 0.065646929 2.467327611 0.716857537 0.097323063 0.086381179 1.420383693 0.483168642 5.337088653
Nonelectric cookware and tableware 0.268851581 3.097395264 1.038905788 0.173888202 0.305100441 2.010425815 0.37235581 7.266922901
Tools, hardware, and supplies 0.087357732 0.912877258 0.426403801 0.07803757 0.140811829 0.508442524 0.095628821 2.249559534
Outdoor equipment and supplies 0.087235554 0.435846456 0.292207051 0.038660264 0.099997947 0.272467647 0.083613904 1.310028822
Televisions 0.005928355 2.160426745 0.169270911 0.045821965 0.210063277 0.884947043 0.016471851 3.492930146
Other video equipment 0.005709996 2.356010126 0.131108523 0.035739095 0.199706134 0.705034254 0.013123823 3.446431951
Audio equipment 0.012273858 2.432193996 0.182705879 0.058835732 0.197548855 0.883404849 0.020401291 3.787364459
Audio discs, tapes, vinyl, and permanent digital downloads 0.007782928 0.083614414 0.032216282 0.006401509 0.011460779 0.047629218 0.008424587 0.197529717
Video discs, tapes, and permanent digital downloads 0.008082967 0.085798245 0.033386489 0.006627992 0.011802779 0.049044591 0.008744377 0.20348744
Photographic equipment 0.054531525 2.332185448 0.172009573 0.098854866 0.232370932 0.578009001 0.03798046 3.505941804
Personal computers/tablets and peripheral equipment 0.001373082 2.966796448 0.029308503 0.001363887 0.192046005 0.266231583 0.002422501 3.45954201
Computer software and accessories 0.007845788 0.037312884 0.026910302 0.005886305 0.00757498 0.022662354 0.008152837 0.11634545
Calculators, typewriters, and other information processing equipment 0.235789094 3.849882779 0.6881063 0.435927312 0.60629169 1.872550926 0.149418795 7.837966896
Sporting equipment, supplies, guns, and ammunition 0.123391301 2.379673147 0.630448356 0.072925115 0.158102102 1.555435353 0.291120836 5.211096211
Motorcycles 0.193566943 0.975222201 0.646974593 0.212556594 0.175503539 1.015909563 0.13189917 3.351632605
Bicycles and accessories 0.193830015 0.749077421 0.621026322 0.205202223 0.171913551 0.868301436 0.110808504 2.920159471
Pleasure boats, aircraft, and other recreational vehicles 0.284106102 0.875693278 0.606806021 0.206956582 0.341173857 0.793670155 0.178007028 3.286413023
Recreational books 0.013796505 0.06664944 0.0423918 0.00892711 0.010870204 0.037902672 0.012792715 0.193330447
Musical instruments 0.037819381 3.872560781 0.26303933 0.047114906 0.080893358 2.674530803 0.411045523 7.387004081
Jewelry 0.062578484 2.176277956 0.259748933 0.039540652 0.063996879 1.424191044 0.251653258 4.277987206
Watches 0.014788528 0.402523672 2.05528878 0.138533298 0.067652925 0.607429699 0.003199096 3.289416
Therapeutic medical equipment 0.024101378 0.73433381 1.53959958 0.098786867 0.092167896 0.578632106 0.193208256 3.260829893
Corrective eyeglasses and contact lenses 0.02359398 0.499148727 0.836218418 0.03942856 0.072051258 0.343021916 0.28646451 2.09992737
Educational books 0.016296312 0.068363693 0.046055307 0.009739207 0.012157722 0.040480265 0.014177591 0.207270096
Luggage and similar personal items 0.012603759 2.208521874 0.232757238 0.00582031 0.021111335 3.97172364 0.532721755 6.985259912
Telephone and related communication equipment 0.009310336 2.671626679 0.023302035 0.006025126 0.02161643 0.240560684 0.010812712 2.983254004
Women's and girls' clothing 0.007619499 1.553371822 0.17489889 0.001701704 0.011858265 3.106924077 0.414083057 5.270457313
Men's and boys' clothing 0.00733285 1.812652235 0.199795608 0.001506291 0.013154891 3.625838629 0.48232185 6.142602355
Children's and infants' clothing 0.02475307 0.839458411 0.18180285 0.012364761 0.021706355 1.554729062 0.218245684 2.853060192
Clothing materials 0.023593895 2.024867762 0.360087997 0.032856714 0.057226886 2.555633424 0.123494517 5.177761195
Shoes and other footwear 0.008093699 1.750965766 0.195663861 0.001719217 0.013086493 3.506333509 0.467079988 5.942942532
Pharmaceutical products 0.040518772 0.117135457 0.06007525 0.005189361 0.008538754 0.028882605 0.07027948 0.330619678
Other medical products 0.019806577 0.501123002 0.671861519 0.035879219 0.059622106 0.341932742 0.226265274 1.85649044
Games, toys, and hobbies -0.044075065 2.283400447 -0.039268441 0.010276474 0.021878823 1.344095617 0.163179072 3.739486926
Pets and related products 0.057566194 0.227823151 0.212188438 0.021318522 0.047493919 0.316494006 0.16265557 1.0455398
Flowers, seeds, and potted plants 0.073737976 0.685799849 0.112606232 0.018248549 0.367532143 0.436885574 0.270201558 1.96501188
Film and photographic supplies 0.067828614 0.837773934 0.632338171 0.062035233 0.103700722 0.440308298 0.06948226 2.213467232
Household cleaning products 0.095042241 0.598355008 0.89378505 0.057855853 0.111466458 0.499915348 0.12054767 2.376967629
Household paper products 0.060835404 0.593114067 0.287180633 0.040895851 0.051256121 0.468955988 0.106938032 1.609176096
Household linens 0.015813961 1.176269678 0.236184122 0.021005509 0.035126941 1.61861008 0.072211802 3.175222093
Sewing items 0.021753109 1.790029621 0.385581274 0.031148463 0.054614368 2.641075923 0.086425494 5.010628251
Miscellaneous household products 0.023642563 1.924017764 0.15470979 0.053588163 0.077540324 0.933516295 0.110890459 3.277905359
Hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products except electrical products 0.075506288 1.362662553 0.561354243 0.059106414 0.106551117 0.858145042 0.145820751 3.169146407
Cosmetic/perfumes/bath/nail preparations and implements 0.083768885 0.357112602 0.804119743 0.050712415 0.096539008 0.344261153 0.086646406 1.823160212
Electric appliances for personal care 0.068906275 5.065501213 0.436464842 0.220088179 0.300169679 1.671792349 0.066558612 7.829481149
Tobacco 0.034252213 0.057701237 0.089707693 0.01412349 0.032609934 0.088333371 0.231533305 0.548261243
Newspapers and periodicals 0.017643878 0.076332713 0.050711 0.010741129 0.013330407 0.04471107 0.015558536 0.229028734
Stationery and miscellaneous printed materials 0.033747128 1.048493828 0.234856724 0.028034462 0.044048045 0.687399194 0.117602604 2.194181986

Note: Theoretical price effects are computed under an assumption of full dollar-for-dollar pass-through and incorporate changes in tariff rates from table 1. Black dots show the total theoretical effect for each category, accounting for occasional negative contributions. In the legend, "ROA" means "Rest of Asia and Pacific," and "ROW" is a residual category for all other countries/regions. Key identifies in order from right to left.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Register, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure 2. Theoretical tariff effects by PCE category and tariff wave

Percent

PCE Category Feb 2025 Mar 2025 Apr 2025 Aug 2025 Other Nov 2025 Total tariff effect
New autos 0.036757536 0.053172712 5.62329742 -0.874593692 -0.078030072 -0.486941649 4.273662256
New light trucks 0.165430648 0.487887754 0.476471447 0.277272196 0.535087155 -0.307942604 1.634206598
Net purchases of used motor vehicles 0.056157914 0.456052736 0.977072995 0.302726913 -0.003510606 -0.191264591 1.59723536
Tires 0.750875133 0.838954941 1.417555484 0.555034313 0.448134728 -0.812331477 3.198223122
Accessories and parts 0.374386836 0.731741524 0.711894726 0.307946993 0.797453704 -0.553365919 2.370057863
Furniture 0.670363411 1.06713889 1.821491009 1.393445207 1.369344926 -0.681888494 5.639894948
Clocks, lamps, lighting fixtures, and other household decorative items 0.674523067 0.978934784 1.6258774 0.792210809 0.102914198 -0.795651337 3.378808921
Carpets and other floor coverings 0.775146546 0.909610501 1.817639315 1.634181584 0.087338523 -0.817238793 4.406677676
Window coverings 0.517286395 0.687989808 1.272589825 1.098375307 0.490251359 -0.531965988 3.534526705
Major household appliances 1.893720885 2.304700556 3.251338637 1.09062408 0.485504764 -2.029461442 6.99642748
Small electric household appliances 2.133008303 2.549056444 3.656015462 1.12220248 0.555015712 -2.271258246 7.744040156
Dishes and flatware 1.21460891 1.440839327 2.400624523 1.121801857 0.440286242 -1.281072205 5.337088653
Nonelectric cookware and tableware 1.39737197 2.376927548 2.666990779 1.059548023 1.216842147 -1.450757567 7.266922901
Tools, hardware, and supplies 0.403145858 0.728877296 0.856381071 0.502716158 0.229635088 -0.471195938 2.249559534
Outdoor equipment and supplies 0.170009629 0.487553527 0.382643757 0.192864238 0.269360582 -0.19240291 1.310028822
Televisions 1.102318285 1.289523516 1.655090997 0.4365532 0.165393071 -1.155948923 3.492930146
Other video equipment 1.553963647 1.741951835 1.27420211 0.361286188 0.109790293 -1.594762122 3.446431951
Audio equipment 1.30360974 1.497216307 1.687960608 0.469729916 0.189221627 -1.360373739 3.787364459
Audio discs, tapes, vinyl, and permanent digital downloads 0.043327058 0.061250565 0.090658934 0.039874086 0.012396853 -0.049977779 0.197529717
Video discs, tapes, and permanent digital downloads 0.044467179 0.062995605 0.093367548 0.041209879 0.012797441 -0.051350213 0.20348744
Photographic equipment 1.843500751 2.105436796 0.876211335 0.518809268 0.062198813 -1.900215159 3.505941804
Personal computers/tablets and peripheral equipment 2.869684666 3.067388182 0.288785613 0.160266128 -0.050831586 -2.875750993 3.45954201
Computer software and accessories 0.026346651 0.04301055 0.040900612 0.026784041 0.009392424 -0.030088828 0.11634545
Calculators, typewriters, and other information processing equipment 1.859307751 2.580607398 3.191607492 1.916655113 0.387200725 -2.097411583 7.837966896
Sporting equipment, supplies, guns, and ammunition 1.082629247 1.620496851 2.047594042 1.271984786 0.348881225 -1.160489939 5.211096211
Motorcycles 0.454558142 0.720656884 1.436636106 1.050068253 0.188935189 -0.499221969 3.351632605
Bicycles and accessories 0.339675464 0.602187483 1.245388267 0.991657387 0.117270564 -0.376019695 2.920159471
Pleasure boats, aircraft, and other recreational vehicles 0.381861987 0.854076729 1.13735258 0.74212706 0.752167656 -0.581172989 3.286413023
Recreational books 0.048817209 0.077595809 0.063800199 0.04018224 0.01865645 -0.055721461 0.193330447
Musical instruments 1.910965656 2.05195592 3.313248026 2.108697113 -0.018737298 -1.979125335 7.387004081
Jewelry 1.072881995 1.234755497 1.947531023 1.174039825 -0.011766314 -1.13945482 4.277987206
Watches 0.20239907 0.281798921 2.51191287 2.344568009 -0.535745988 -1.515516883 3.289416
Therapeutic medical equipment 0.351731705 0.45780945 2.123505248 1.60566012 -0.2154089 -1.062467731 3.260829893
Corrective eyeglasses and contact lenses 0.250164048 0.330036836 1.188680022 0.708713482 0.015983699 -0.393650717 2.09992737
Educational books 0.049634488 0.083688872 0.066883905 0.042457066 0.021765584 -0.057159818 0.207270096
Luggage and similar personal items 1.10094642 1.132854922 3.564830782 2.281019226 0.010032417 -1.104423855 6.985259912
Telephone and related communication equipment 2.514117126 2.559523244 0.264143732 0.129692992 0.037923471 -2.522146562 2.983254004
Women's and girls' clothing 0.776575442 0.793848502 2.729962234 1.751167273 0.002322864 -0.783419002 5.270457313
Men's and boys' clothing 0.906220675 0.923259549 3.181037475 2.04257253 0.002694065 -0.913181939 6.142602355
Children's and infants' clothing 0.416851563 0.485388041 1.447801812 0.919043349 0.010725095 -0.426749668 2.853060192
Clothing materials 1.008814581 1.125251204 2.12922787 1.895252424 0.065126772 -1.045911656 5.177761195
Shoes and other footwear 0.875382539 0.893776664 3.078708346 1.975191627 0.0025857 -0.882702344 5.942942532
Pharmaceutical products 0.108101076 0.1563261 0.08026136 0.096912397 0.001464205 -0.11244546 0.330619678
Other medical products 0.250402789 0.316207963 1.029097528 0.582447377 0.044911169 -0.366576386 1.85649044
Games, toys, and hobbies 1.127566411 1.082753134 1.560982812 1.098499851 -0.005406564 -1.124908719 3.739486926
Pets and related products 0.111389259 0.200603 0.607734386 0.389582951 0.035631961 -0.299401758 1.0455398
Flowers, seeds, and potted plants 0.335572693 0.544763394 0.994986499 0.851074306 0.0052571 -0.766642112 1.96501188
Film and photographic supplies 0.379593178 0.517279518 1.083416806 0.613323598 0.104970432 -0.4851163 2.213467232
Household cleaning products 0.298245965 0.465001819 1.150491277 0.818852785 0.079810133 -0.43543435 2.376967629
Household paper products 0.281711652 0.456016156 0.703010275 0.313798727 0.140342935 -0.285703649 1.609176096
Household linens 0.594641142 0.668364668 1.307858149 1.174396782 0.046361416 -0.616400065 3.175222093
Sewing items 0.894864714 1.009594924 2.025737377 1.928011356 0.080068667 -0.927648787 5.010628251
Miscellaneous household products 0.885842641 1.002372171 1.494751712 0.727653145 0.098430321 -0.93114463 3.277905359
Hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products except electrical products 0.634507497 0.859835231 1.413341514 0.839271013 0.144791762 -0.72260061 3.169146407
Cosmetic/perfumes/bath/nail preparations and implements 0.182643046 0.313864754 0.905965031 0.66367179 0.062453628 -0.305438036 1.823160212
Electric appliances for personal care 2.154046237 2.57661978 3.69885497 1.133984083 0.56046194 -2.29448586 7.829481149
Tobacco 0.026492924 0.106299279 0.295009964 0.129656886 0.030556994 -0.039754804 0.548261243
Newspapers and periodicals 0.055539478 0.092382046 0.074088582 0.047105607 0.023724091 -0.063811071 0.229028734
Stationery and miscellaneous printed materials 0.528023105 0.609078438 0.980437361 0.623026744 0.023421004 -0.569804667 2.194181986

Theoretical price effects are computed under an assumption of full dollar-for-dollar pass-through and incorporate changes in tariff rates from table 1. Black dots show the total theoretical effect for each category, accounting for occasional negative contributions. In the legend, "ROA" means "Rest of Asia and Pacific," and "ROW" is a residual category for all other countries/regions. Key identifies in order from right to left, with the exception of new autos, watches, and therapeutic equipment

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure 3. Baseline pass-through estimates

Cumulative pass-through coefficient

Months since tariff change Estimate Estimate upper Estimate lower
0 0.175630522 0.356693857 -0.005432812
1 0.350829713 0.529309765 0.172349661
2 0.416644586 0.668080236 0.165208936
3 0.554168911 0.886526762 0.221811061
4 0.746824869 1.130026625 0.363623112
5 0.902163568 1.324424887 0.479902249
6 0.926366115 1.367077492 0.485654738
7 1.037396543 1.533245519 0.541547568

Note: Pass-through coefficients are cumulative. A value of 1 means full dollar-for-dollar pass-through of tariffs into relative consumer prices. The regression sample period is January 2024 – February 2026, and observations are unweighted. 90% confidence intervals are displayed, and standard errors are clustered by PCE category

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure 4. Tariff effects on core PCE prices

Percent

Date Feb 2025 Mar 2025 Apr 2025 Other Aug 2025 Nov 2025 Total tariff effect
2/1/2025 0.023665376 0 0 0 0 0 0.023665376
3/1/2025 0.047272632 0.030810612 0 0 0 0 0.078083244
4/1/2025 0.056140872 0.061545556 0.052916086 0 0 0 0.170602515
5/1/2025 0.07467162 0.073091366 0.105702215 0.003656318 0 0 0.257121519
6/1/2025 0.100631092 0.097217062 0.125531715 0.010180104 0 0 0.333559973
7/1/2025 0.121562241 0.131014422 0.166966706 0.014419636 0 0 0.433963005
8/1/2025 0.124823419 0.158265269 0.225012421 0.018360555 0.030439009 0 0.556900672
9/1/2025 0.13978424 0.162511087 0.271814741 0.02359209 0.060803263 0 0.658505421
10/1/2025 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.279106777 0.030805046 0.072209819 0 0.703894879
11/1/2025 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.035314726 0.096044539 -0.0269697 0.738722168
12/1/2025 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.037909135 0.129434273 -0.053873165 0.747802846
1/1/2026 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.040046826 0.15635645 -0.06397965 0.766756228
2/1/2026 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.04116688 0.16055106 -0.085097789 0.750952754
3/1/2026 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.042663486 0.179794049 -0.114681903 0.742108235
4/1/2026 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.042266672 0.179794049 -0.138535604 0.717857719
5/1/2026 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.043437998 0.179794049 -0.14225213 0.715312519
6/1/2026 0.13978424 0.181988997 0.312559366 0.043437998 0.179794049 -0.159301885 0.698262764

Note: Black dots show total tariff effects, summing across positive and negative tariff wave contributions. The forecast region, shaded in blue, assumes no additional tariff changes beyond those in table 1 and no additional tariff pass-through seven months after a tariff change. Key identifies in order from top to bottom.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure 5. Tariff effects on core goods PCE prices

Percent

Date Published Ex tariffs Pre pandemic average
15-Jan -1.031 NA -0.650233333
15-Feb -0.776 NA -0.650233333
15-Mar -0.595 NA -0.650233333
15-Apr -0.511 NA -0.650233333
15-May -0.504 NA -0.650233333
15-Jun -0.734 NA -0.650233333
15-Jul -0.893 NA -0.650233333
15-Aug -0.827 NA -0.650233333
15-Sep -0.78 NA -0.650233333
15-Oct -0.974 NA -0.650233333
15-Nov -0.765 NA -0.650233333
15-Dec -0.703 NA -0.650233333
16-Jan -0.545 NA -0.650233333
16-Feb -0.549 NA -0.650233333
16-Mar -0.72 NA -0.650233333
16-Apr -0.608 NA -0.650233333
16-May -0.776 NA -0.650233333
16-Jun -0.845 NA -0.650233333
16-Jul -0.846 NA -0.650233333
16-Aug -0.588 NA -0.650233333
16-Sep -0.583 NA -0.650233333
16-Oct -0.507 NA -0.650233333
16-Nov -0.867 NA -0.650233333
16-Dec -0.899 NA -0.650233333
17-Jan -0.534 NA -0.650233333
17-Feb -0.581 NA -0.650233333
17-Mar -0.592 NA -0.650233333
17-Apr -0.926 NA -0.650233333
17-May -0.962 NA -0.650233333
17-Jun -0.787 NA -0.650233333
17-Jul -0.66 NA -0.650233333
17-Aug -0.942 NA -0.650233333
17-Sep -1.267 NA -0.650233333
17-Oct -0.99 NA -0.650233333
17-Nov -0.875 NA -0.650233333
17-Dec -0.837 NA -0.650233333
18-Jan -0.756 NA -0.650233333
18-Feb -0.821 NA -0.650233333
18-Mar -0.666 NA -0.650233333
18-Apr -0.375 NA -0.650233333
18-May -0.136 NA -0.650233333
18-Jun -0.358 NA -0.650233333
18-Jul -0.453 NA -0.650233333
18-Aug -0.671 NA -0.650233333
18-Sep -0.491 NA -0.650233333
18-Oct -0.552 NA -0.650233333
18-Nov -0.224 NA -0.650233333
18-Dec -0.258 NA -0.650233333
19-Jan -0.242 NA -0.650233333
19-Feb -0.435 NA -0.650233333
19-Mar -0.621 NA -0.650233333
19-Apr -0.885 NA -0.650233333
19-May -0.898 NA -0.650233333
19-Jun -0.499 NA -0.650233333
19-Jul -0.576 NA -0.650233333
19-Aug -0.162 NA -0.650233333
19-Sep -0.265 NA -0.650233333
19-Oct -0.338 NA -0.650233333
19-Nov -0.494 NA -0.650233333
19-Dec -0.459 NA -0.650233333
20-Jan -0.795 NA -0.650233333
20-Feb -0.455 NA -0.650233333
20-Mar -0.65 NA -0.650233333
20-Apr -1.256 NA -0.650233333
20-May -1.535 NA -0.650233333
20-Jun -1.674 NA -0.650233333
20-Jul -0.954 NA -0.650233333
20-Aug -0.409 NA -0.650233333
20-Sep -0.409 NA -0.650233333
20-Oct -0.458 NA -0.650233333
20-Nov -0.158 NA -0.650233333
20-Dec 0.096 NA -0.650233333
21-Jan 0.376 NA -0.650233333
21-Feb 0.073 NA -0.650233333
21-Mar 0.571 NA -0.650233333
21-Apr 2.435 NA -0.650233333
21-May 3.658 NA -0.650233333
21-Jun 4.307 NA -0.650233333
21-Jul 4.022 NA -0.650233333
21-Aug 3.919 NA -0.650233333
21-Sep 4.153 NA -0.650233333
21-Oct 5.209 NA -0.650233333
21-Nov 5.591 NA -0.650233333
21-Dec 6.231 NA -0.650233333
22-Jan 6.902 NA -0.650233333
22-Feb 7.663 NA -0.650233333
22-Mar 7.48 NA -0.650233333
22-Apr 6.352 NA -0.650233333
22-May 5.722 NA -0.650233333
22-Jun 5.72 NA -0.650233333
22-Jul 5.503 NA -0.650233333
22-Aug 5.597 NA -0.650233333
22-Sep 5.73 NA -0.650233333
22-Oct 4.688 NA -0.650233333
22-Nov 3.931 NA -0.650233333
22-Dec 3.174 NA -0.650233333
23-Jan 2.675 NA -0.650233333
23-Feb 2.283 NA -0.650233333
23-Mar 2.512 NA -0.650233333
23-Apr 2.504 NA -0.650233333
23-May 2.501 NA -0.650233333
23-Jun 1.699 NA -0.650233333
23-Jul 1.183 NA -0.650233333
23-Aug 0.56 NA -0.650233333
23-Sep 0.231 NA -0.650233333
23-Oct 0.381 NA -0.650233333
23-Nov 0.225 NA -0.650233333
23-Dec -0.038 NA -0.650233333
24-Jan -0.523 NA -0.650233333
24-Feb -0.397 NA -0.650233333
24-Mar -0.499 NA -0.650233333
24-Apr -0.517 NA -0.650233333
24-May -1.021 NA -0.650233333
24-Jun -0.796 NA -0.650233333
24-Jul -0.414 NA -0.650233333
24-Aug -0.472 NA -0.650233333
24-Sep -0.334 NA -0.650233333
24-Oct -0.433 NA -0.650233333
24-Nov -0.185 NA -0.650233333
24-Dec -0.203 NA -0.650233333
25-Jan 0.232 NA -0.650233333
25-Feb 0.33 0.232325544 -0.650233333
25-Mar -0.037 -0.359274129 -0.650233333
25-Apr 0.195 -0.509130286 -0.650233333
25-May 0.649 -0.412221454 -0.650233333
25-Jun 0.994 -0.382707018 -0.650233333
25-Jul 1.054 -0.73710194 -0.650233333
25-Aug 1.071 -1.227504396 -0.650233333
25-Sep 1.207 -1.510859179 -0.650233333
25-Oct 1.144 -1.761195764 -0.650233333
25-Nov 1.246 -1.802938947 -0.650233333
25-Dec 1.966 -1.120417763 -0.650233333
26-Jan 1.864 -1.300644341 -0.650233333
26-Feb 2.322 -0.679743971 -0.650233333

Note: Core goods PCE inflation in February 2026 is an FRB staff estimate. The dashed line represents the average 12-month percent change in published core goods PCE prices from January 2015 – December 2019.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure 6. Tariff effects excluding time fixed effects

Panel a: Dynamic pass-through estimates
Cumulative pass-through coefficient

Months since tariff change Estimate Category Estimate Category and Time Estimate upper Category Estimate upper Category and Time Estimate lower Category Estimate lowerCategory and Time
0 0.065743296 0.175630522 0.216169376 0.356693857 -0.084682785 -0.005432812
1 0.046221605 0.350829713 0.191313377 0.529309765 -0.098870166 0.172349661
2 0.089828141 0.416644586 0.271788162 0.668080236 -0.092131879 0.165208936
3 0.08760728 0.554168911 0.319500519 0.886526762 -0.14428596 0.221811061
4 0.315929517 0.746824869 0.508771291 1.130026625 0.123087743 0.363623112
5 0.49891248 0.902163568 0.684065397 1.324424887 0.313759564 0.479902249
6 0.526518615 0.926366115 0.705744256 1.367077492 0.347292973 0.485654738
7 0.51645302 1.037396543 0.752237816 1.533245519 0.280668224 0.541547568

Panel b: Tariff effects on core inflation
Percent

Date Category Category and Time
2/1/2025 0.008858596 0.023665376
3/1/2025 0.017761394 0.078083244
4/1/2025 0.040020439 0.170602515
5/1/2025 0.04285795 0.257121519
6/1/2025 0.08704231 0.333559973
7/1/2025 0.151671597 0.433963005
8/1/2025 0.268345612 0.556900672
9/1/2025 0.327910935 0.658505421
10/1/2025 0.350377253 0.703894879
11/1/2025 0.339973675 0.738722168
12/1/2025 0.383258224 0.747802846
1/1/2026 0.406745974 0.766756228
2/1/2026 0.413205452 0.750952754
3/1/2026 0.378168205 0.742108235
4/1/2026 0.350419823 0.717857719
5/1/2026 0.346074457 0.715312519
6/1/2026 0.347620123 0.698262764

Note: In panel (a), pass-through coefficients are cumulative. A value of 1 means full dollar-for-dollar pass-through of tariffs into relative consumer prices. The regression sample period is January 2024 – February 2026, and observations are unweighted. 90% confidence intervals are displayed, and standard errors are clustered by PCE category. In panel (b), the forecast region, shaded in blue, assumes no additional tariff changes beyond those in table 1 and no additional tariff pass-through seven months after a tariff change.

Source: Authors' calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure A1. Pass-through estimates, model with 9 lags

Cumulative pass-through coefficient

Months since tariff change Estimate Estimate upper Estimate lower
0 0.17898069 0.364020798 -0.006059418
1 0.354039656 0.5330895 0.174989813
2 0.415672272 0.672932672 0.158411871
3 0.55716592 0.895941608 0.218390231
4 0.740571223 1.10968432 0.371458127
5 0.904704789 1.321165286 0.488244293
6 0.92687281 1.36303022 0.4907154
7 1.023639786 1.517384955 0.529894617
8 1.073706303 1.615300637 0.53211197
9 1.04137577 1.616994895 0.465756645

Note: Pass-through coefficients are cumulative. A value of 1 means full dollar-for-dollar pass-through of tariffs into relative consumer prices. The regression sample period is January 2024 – February 2026, and observations are unweighted. 90% confidence intervals are displayed, and standard errors are clustered by PCE category.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure A2. Pass-through estimates, model with 5 lags

Cumulative pass-through coefficient

Months since tariff change Estimate Estimate upper Estimate lower
0 0.157506512 0.326287226 -0.011274202
1 0.330435266 0.499982068 0.160888464
2 0.398594287 0.639202664 0.157985909
3 0.542436046 0.87076368 0.214108412
4 0.725537042 1.09791219 0.353161894
5 0.895602839 1.312428916 0.478776761

Note: Pass-through coefficients are cumulative. A value of 1 means full dollar-for-dollar pass-through of tariffs into relative consumer prices. The regression sample period is January 2024 – February 2026, and observations are unweighted. 90% confidence intervals are displayed, and standard errors are clustered by PCE category.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Figure A3. Event-study approach in Minton and Somale (2025)
PCE Category Theoretical tariff effects (%) Excess inflation from Jan. 2025 to Feb. 2026 (pp) Best fit line Best fit line lower CI Best fit line upper CI
New autos 4.273662256 1.613079527 3.740839893 2.133122178 5.348557609
Tires 3.198223122 1.40377086 2.898325702 1.305116406 4.491534999
Accessories and parts 2.370057863 1.713229774 2.249529354 0.409594737 4.08946397
Furniture 5.639894948 5.652073249 4.811165861 2.687070176 6.935261546
Clocks, lamps, lighting fixtures, and other household decorative items 3.378808921 2.543575923 3.039799165 1.472756501 4.606841829
Carpets and other floor coverings 4.406677676 10.70474571 3.84504605 2.20781884 5.48227326
Window coverings 3.534526705 2.754532474 3.161790674 1.60820056 4.715380789
Major household appliances 6.99642748 8.487421311 5.873892586 2.95954541 8.788239762
Small electric household appliances 7.744040156 8.074583502 6.459582904 3.058307389 9.86085842
Dishes and flatware 5.337088653 19.47580299 4.573943137 2.597996737 6.549889537
Nonelectric cookware and tableware 7.266922901 12.16478746 6.085802515 2.998114891 9.17349014
Tools, hardware, and supplies 2.249559534 8.730587122 2.155129263 0.26499249 4.045266035
Outdoor equipment and supplies 1.310028822 7.398698195 1.419087646 -0.945309196 3.783484489
Televisions 3.492930146 -0.755415339 3.129203343 1.572862072 4.685544613
Other video equipment 3.446431951 11.7826255 3.092776 1.53262983 4.652922171
Audio equipment 3.787364459 10.81899737 3.359867338 1.809601644 4.910133032
Audio discs, tapes, vinyl, and permanent digital downloads 0.197529717 0.55569254 0.547540151 -2.49515 3.590230302
Video discs, tapes, and permanent digital downloads 0.20348744 -10.00318321 0.552207515 -2.48664602 3.59106105
Photographic equipment 3.505941804 9.073612231 3.139396859 1.583982595 4.694811124
Personal computers/tablets and peripheral equipment 3.45954201 7.045977604 3.103046606 1.544050889 4.662042322
Computer software and accessories 0.11634545 9.875696783 0.483939251 -2.611197454 3.579075956
Calculators, typewriters, and other information processing equipment 7.837966896 -2.591633913 6.533166438 3.069165998 9.997166878
Sporting equipment, supplies, guns, and ammunition 5.211096211 5.85515321 4.47523888 2.556416053 6.394061707
Motorcycles 3.351632605 -0.023009808 3.018508855 1.448243726 4.588773984
Bicycles and accessories 2.920159471 1.752263217 2.680486714 1.026079909 4.33489352
Pleasure boats, aircraft, and other recreational vehicles 3.286413023 1.801391936 2.967414915 1.388374269 4.54645556
Recreational books 0.193330447 -3.825358455 0.544250383 -2.501145004 3.58964577
Musical instruments 7.387004081 0.367506019 6.179875806 3.014130764 9.345620848
Jewelry 4.277987206 12.97114418 3.74422812 2.135639274 5.352816966
Watches 3.289416 0.009193212 2.969767489 1.39116297 4.548372008
Therapeutic medical equipment 3.260829893 5.41053117 2.947372729 1.364492112 4.530253347
Corrective eyeglasses and contact lenses 2.09992737 -2.53103881 2.037905314 0.081433014 3.994377614
Luggage and similar personal items 6.985259912 6.102133637 5.865143755 2.957872267 8.772415244
Telephone and related communication equipment 2.983254004 -2.591230841 2.729915862 1.091511194 4.368320529
Women's and girls' clothing 5.270457313 3.704048009 4.521743205 2.576366978 6.467119432
Men's and boys' clothing 6.142602355 -1.053849414 5.204993936 2.807713898 7.602273974
Children's and infants' clothing 2.853060192 0.561989869 2.627920192 0.955200758 4.300639627
Clothing materials 5.177761195 4.187526418 4.449123758 2.544920324 6.353327192
Shoes and other footwear 5.942942532 0.741282441 5.048577614 2.763299003 7.333856225
Other medical products 1.85649044 5.409581776 1.847193388 -0.225606266 3.919993042
Games, toys, and hobbies 3.739486926 4.088706677 3.322359403 1.773236239 4.871482567
Pets and related products 1.0455398 2.900757587 1.211883215 -1.305400978 3.729167408
Flowers, seeds, and potted plants 1.96501188 3.631862257 1.932210616 -0.087529955 3.951951186
Film and photographic supplies 2.213467232 -24.31972395 2.126854043 0.221107401 4.032600685
Household cleaning products 2.376967629 -0.83466934 2.254942562 0.417794115 4.092091008
Household paper products 1.609176096 1.180027271 1.653443841 -0.546702305 3.853589988
Household linens 3.175222093 4.791788205 2.880306371 1.282974026 4.477638716
Sewing items 5.010628251 4.187508267 4.318189452 2.483923002 6.152455901
Miscellaneous household products 3.277905359 2.006031904 2.960749891 1.380456966 4.541042815
Hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products except electrical products 3.169146407 2.853335701 2.875546593 1.277095982 4.473997204
Cosmetic/perfumes/bath/nail preparations and implements 1.823160212 1.478245463 1.821082017 -0.268376817 3.910540851
Electric appliances for personal care 7.829481149 2.853335419 6.526518584 3.068196936 9.984840232
Tobacco 0.548261243 1.41092448 0.822308177 -1.997636704 3.642253058
Newspapers and periodicals 0.229028734 7.40277788 0.572216925 -2.450208027 3.594641877
Stationery and miscellaneous printed materials 2.194181986 -0.815329583 2.11174571 0.197554192 4.025937227
New light trucks 1.634206598 0.576707372 1.67305309 -0.513829379 3.859935559
Net purchases of used motor vehicles 1.59723536 2.209348153 1.644089301 -0.562412177 3.850590779
Pharmaceutical products 0.330619678 -1.496105532 0.651804704 -2.305594644 3.609204052

Note: Excess inflation (y-axis) is computed using category-average inflation from Jan. 2024 to Dec. 2024 and is not annualized. Theoretical tariff effects (x-axis) are the black dots shown in figures 1 and 2. 95% confidence bands for fitted values are heteroskedasticity robust. The regression underlying the linear fit is unweighted. The slope coefficient is 0.78 (p-value 0.04), and the intercept is 0.39 (p-value 0.80).

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, Census, the Executive Office, the Federal Registrar, and Customs and Border Protection.

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Last Update: April 08, 2026