Accessible Version

Do national account statistics underestimate US real output growth? Accessible Data

Figure 1: Gross Domestic Output

4-quarter percentage change

Date BEA GDPplus BL
March 1964 5.7 5.2 4.8
June 1964 5.6 5.2 4.8
September 1964 5.4 5.3 5.1
December 1964 5.2 5.4 5.2
March 1965 5.7 5.8 5.5
June 1965 5.7 5.9 5.5
September 1965 6.0 6.1 5.6
December 1965 7.6 6.8 6.2
March 1966 7.6 6.8 6.1
June 1966 6.8 6.2 5.6
September 1966 5.8 5.4 5.0
December 1966 4.4 4.2 4.0
March 1967 2.8 3.0 3.2
June 1967 2.6 2.8 2.9
September 1967 2.9 3.0 3.2
December 1967 2.9 3.4 3.7
March 1968 3.9 4.2 4.3
June 1968 5.2 4.9 4.9
September 1968 5.3 5.0 4.9
December 1968 4.9 4.7 5.2
March 1969 4.4 4.1 5.0
June 1969 3.3 3.5 4.7
September 1969 3.0 2.8 4.3
December 1969 2.1 1.9 3.2
March 1970 0.4 0.7 2.0
June 1970 0.0 0.2 1.1
September 1970 0.2 0.1 0.8
December 1970 -0.5 0.1 0.4
March 1971 2.3 1.8 2.0
June 1971 2.8 2.5 3.0
September 1971 2.8 3.0 3.6
December 1971 4.5 4.2 5.2
March 1972 3.8 4.4 5.1
June 1972 5.0 4.9 5.5
September 1972 5.4 5.7 5.7
December 1972 6.7 6.6 6.2
March 1973 7.2 6.7 6.1
June 1973 6.3 6.0 5.1
September 1973 4.9 4.9 4.4
December 1973 3.8 3.2 3.0
March 1974 0.9 1.3 1.1
June 1974 0.0 0.2 0.6
September 1974 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5
December 1974 -2.4 -2.3 -2.8
March 1975 -2.8 -2.5 -3.6
June 1975 -1.9 -1.3 -2.5
September 1975 0.6 0.8 -0.1
December 1975 2.6 3.1 3.0
March 1976 6.0 5.2 6.1
June 1976 5.8 5.3 5.9
September 1976 4.6 4.4 4.7
December 1976 4.0 3.7 4.2
March 1977 2.9 3.2 3.8
June 1977 4.4 4.5 4.6
September 1977 5.6 5.3 5.2
December 1977 5.4 5.5 5.3
March 1978 4.8 5.6 4.8
June 1978 6.0 5.7 5.4
September 1978 5.0 5.1 5.3
December 1978 5.8 5.0 5.1
March 1979 5.9 4.5 4.8
June 1979 2.3 2.4 2.8
September 1979 1.9 1.5 2.3
December 1979 1.1 1.0 1.4
March 1980 0.7 0.1 0.4
June 1980 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5
September 1980 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1
December 1980 0.7 1.4 0.2
March 1981 1.9 2.3 1.0
June 1981 3.5 3.7 3.4
September 1981 4.5 3.6 2.3
December 1981 1.2 1.0 0.4
March 1982 -1.5 -0.2 -0.2
June 1982 -0.7 -0.5 -0.8
September 1982 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9
December 1982 -1.3 -0.5 0.2
March 1983 1.1 1.1 2.0
June 1983 2.6 2.5 3.7
September 1983 4.7 4.2 5.8
December 1983 7.0 6.3 7.0
March 1984 8.1 7.5 6.7
June 1984 7.8 7.5 6.3
September 1984 7.2 7.1 5.2
December 1984 6.0 6.1 4.5
March 1985 4.6 4.7 4.0
June 1985 3.7 4.0 3.7
September 1985 4.1 3.9 3.8
December 1985 3.8 3.5 3.7
March 1986 3.8 3.4 3.7
June 1986 3.4 3.1 3.8
September 1986 2.8 2.7 4.0
December 1986 2.8 2.8 4.0
March 1987 2.7 3.0 4.1
June 1987 3.7 3.9 4.2
September 1987 4.0 4.6 4.0
December 1987 4.9 5.1 4.2
March 1988 4.9 5.2 4.1
June 1988 4.8 4.9 4.1
September 1988 4.3 4.5 3.9
December 1988 4.2 4.4 4.0
March 1989 4.1 3.9 3.9
June 1989 3.2 2.9 3.3
September 1989 3.0 2.3 3.1
December 1989 1.8 1.4 2.5
March 1990 2.1 1.5 2.5
June 1990 2.2 1.8 2.3
September 1990 1.6 1.4 1.6
December 1990 0.8 0.8 0.4
March 1991 -0.5 0.1 -0.6
June 1991 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3
September 1991 -0.1 0.3 0.4
December 1991 1.0 1.2 1.2
March 1992 2.7 2.5 2.4
June 1992 3.2 3.1 2.5
September 1992 3.5 3.3 2.6
December 1992 4.0 3.4 3.2
March 1993 2.5 2.2 3.4
June 1993 2.4 2.2 3.2
September 1993 2.1 2.2 3.6
December 1993 2.8 3.0 3.9
March 1994 3.6 3.8 4.1
June 1994 4.2 4.2 4.7
September 1994 4.6 4.6 4.7
December 1994 4.1 4.1 4.6
March 1995 3.8 3.8 4.2
June 1995 2.8 3.2 3.4
September 1995 3.0 3.2 3.3
December 1995 2.6 3.1 2.9
March 1996 3.0 3.6 3.1
June 1996 4.2 4.2 4.1
September 1996 4.1 4.2 4.0
December 1996 4.6 4.6 4.3
March 1997 4.6 4.6 4.5
June 1997 4.4 4.6 4.2
September 1997 4.9 5.0 4.6
December 1997 4.8 5.1 4.8
March 1998 4.9 5.0 4.8
June 1998 4.7 5.2 4.8
September 1998 4.6 5.1 4.4
December 1998 4.8 4.8 4.5
March 1999 4.8 4.8 4.5
June 1999 4.4 4.2 4.5
September 1999 4.1 4.0 4.4
December 1999 4.5 4.3 4.4
March 2000 4.6 4.9 4.1
June 2000 5.1 4.8 4.0
September 2000 4.5 4.4 3.5
December 2000 3.0 3.1 2.7
March 2001 2.3 2.2 1.9
June 2001 1.2 1.5 1.1
September 2001 0.5 0.7 0.7
December 2001 0.2 0.5 0.2
March 2002 0.8 0.6 1.2
June 2002 1.2 1.2 1.7
September 2002 1.9 1.6 2.1
December 2002 2.3 2.2 2.5
March 2003 1.5 1.8 1.8
June 2003 1.9 2.1 1.7
September 2003 2.9 2.8 2.2
December 2003 3.6 3.2 2.8
March 2004 4.0 3.6 3.2
June 2004 3.9 3.6 3.5
September 2004 3.6 3.7 3.1
December 2004 3.2 3.5 2.9
March 2005 3.6 3.5 2.9
June 2005 3.3 3.3 2.9
September 2005 3.2 3.2 3.1
December 2005 3.5 3.8 3.1
March 2006 4.0 4.3 3.3
June 2006 3.6 4.0 3.0
September 2006 3.0 3.5 2.8
December 2006 2.6 2.5 2.9
March 2007 1.0 1.2 2.3
June 2007 1.2 0.8 2.6
September 2007 1.0 0.1 2.3
December 2007 0.6 -0.3 1.7
March 2008 0.4 -0.2 1.2
June 2008 0.2 -0.4 0.2
September 2008 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9
December 2008 -2.6 -2.2 -2.7
March 2009 -3.8 -3.5 -4.2
June 2009 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2
September 2009 -3.2 -2.2 -2.8
December 2009 0.0 0.3 -1.1
March 2010 1.8 1.9 1.1
June 2010 2.7 2.7 2.3
September 2010 3.3 3.1 2.1
December 2010 2.6 2.6 2.4
March 2011 2.2 2.4 2.1
June 2011 2.0 2.2 1.5
September 2011 1.4 1.9 1.7
December 2011 1.9 2.3 2.0
March 2012 3.3 3.3 2.4
June 2012 3.0 3.2 2.6
September 2012 2.6 2.7 2.5
December 2012 2.0 2.4 2.2
March 2013 1.1 1.3 2.2
June 2013 1.1 1.4 2.2
September 2013 1.6 1.6 2.5
December 2013 2.0 1.5 2.8
March 2014 1.7 2.0 2.5
June 2014 2.5 2.7 3.0
September 2014 3.2 3.3 3.2
December 2014 3.2 3.7 3.4
March 2015 3.5 3.5 3.7
June 2015 2.8 2.7 3.4
September 2015 2.2 2.1 3.3
December 2015 1.7 1.6 2.9
March 2016 1.4 1.4 2.9
June 2016 1.3 1.5 2.9
September 2016 1.8 1.8 2.8
December 2016 1.6 1.5 2.7
March 2017 1.6 1.4 2.6

 

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Figure 2: Residual Seasonality

Top left plot: GDP

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2000s 0.9 2.6 1.7 1.4
2010-2016 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.3

Top right plot: BEA

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2000s 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.2
2010-2016 1.4 2.2 2.7 2.2

Bottom left plot: GDPplus

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2000s 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.2
2010-2016 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.1

Bottom right plot: BL

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2000s 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.3
2010-2016 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.8

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Last Update: January 09, 2018