Accessible Version

(Don't Fear) The Yield Curve Accessible Data

Figure 1: Long-term Yield Spread and Near-term Forward Spread

Period Effective Lower Bound Period Recession 2-to-10-Year Yield Spread 0-to-6 Quarter Forward Spread
1972:Q1 0 0 1.1821 2.1019
1972:Q2 0 0 0.874 1.9044
1972:Q3 0 0 0.7 1.6789
1972:Q4 0 0 0.5009 1.3501
1973:Q1 0 0 0.0299 0.5996
1973:Q2 0 0 -0.1712 0.777
1973:Q3 0 0 -0.6836 -1.1411
1973:Q4 0 1 -0.2143 -1.5065
1974:Q1 0 1 0.0067 -1.5353
1974:Q2 0 1 -0.5213 -1.2862
1974:Q3 0 1 -0.5109 -0.9372
1974:Q4 0 1 -0.0837 -0.2222
1975:Q1 0 1 0.6778 0.7481
1975:Q2 0 0 0.6973 1.8363
1975:Q3 0 0 0.1654 1.5321
1975:Q4 0 0 0.7011 1.8541
1976:Q1 0 0 0.9831 2.1497
1976:Q2 0 0 0.8242 1.9144
1976:Q3 0 0 1.0475 1.69
1976:Q4 0 0 1.4618 1.2792
1977:Q1 0 0 1.2294 1.7054
1977:Q2 0 0 1.2528 1.3948
1977:Q3 0 0 0.8182 0.8396
1977:Q4 0 0 0.4736 0.5672
1978:Q1 0 0 0.4962 0.7638
1978:Q2 0 0 0.24 0.9657
1978:Q3 0 0 -0.0192 0.4433
1978:Q4 0 0 -0.5905 -0.7752
1979:Q1 0 0 -0.7289 -0.937
1979:Q2 0 0 -0.4593 -0.9363
1979:Q3 0 0 -0.4658 -1.5356
1979:Q4 0 0 -0.9709 -2.5258
1980:Q1 0 1 -1.1913 -2.2002
1980:Q2 0 1 0.3592 -0.7946
1980:Q3 0 0 0.4958 0.9978
1980:Q4 0 0 -0.7298 -2.595
1981:Q1 0 0 -0.4091 -2.8943
1981:Q2 0 0 -0.9233 -2.4024
1981:Q3 0 1 -1.2602 -1.4156
1981:Q4 0 1 0.0502 1.1494
1982:Q1 0 1 -0.2427 0.4023
1982:Q2 0 1 -0.3784 0.5696
1982:Q3 0 1 0.2061 2.9398
1982:Q4 0 1 0.8214 2.3306
1983:Q1 0 0 1.1863 1.7929
1983:Q2 0 0 1.017 1.4774
1983:Q3 0 0 0.9265 1.8371
1983:Q4 0 0 1.1776 2.0349
1984:Q1 0 0 1.1548 1.8058
1984:Q2 0 0 0.9632 2.2381
1984:Q3 0 0 0.4267 1.9089
1984:Q4 0 0 0.9178 2.1435
1985:Q1 0 0 1.367 2.4603
1985:Q2 0 0 1.6001 2.4605
1985:Q3 0 0 1.6866 2.469
1985:Q4 0 0 1.5191 1.7629
1986:Q1 0 0 1.0131 0.8798
1986:Q2 0 0 0.7798 1.2782
1986:Q3 0 0 1.2463 1.3991
1986:Q4 0 0 1.4364 1.1567
1987:Q1 0 0 1.1407 0.7995
1987:Q2 0 0 1.0723 1.7256
1987:Q3 0 0 1.2767 1.8038
1987:Q4 0 0 1.2733 1.9688
1988:Q1 0 0 1.3871 1.4194
1988:Q2 0 0 1.2959 1.6855
1988:Q3 0 0 0.8529 1.1746
1988:Q4 0 0 0.3818 0.5369
1989:Q1 0 0 -0.1876 0.2441
1989:Q2 0 0 -0.1326 -0.2015
1989:Q3 0 0 0.126 -0.3894
1989:Q4 0 0 0.1586 -0.3691
1990:Q1 0 0 0.163 0.242
1990:Q2 0 0 0.2068 0.533
1990:Q3 0 1 0.7208 0.4603
1990:Q4 0 1 0.9061 0.5574
1991:Q1 0 1 1.1902 1.2033
1991:Q2 0 0 1.4137 1.8406
1991:Q3 0 0 1.6434 1.6865
1991:Q4 0 0 2.1717 1.5804
1992:Q1 0 0 2.3391 2.3999
1992:Q2 0 0 2.5 2.6007
1992:Q3 0 0 2.9638 2.0025
1992:Q4 0 0 2.7049 2.3005
1993:Q1 0 0 2.5687 1.8101
1993:Q2 0 0 2.3824 1.5809
1993:Q3 0 0 1.9393 1.4211
1993:Q4 0 0 1.8238 1.4588
1994:Q1 0 0 1.7804 1.7579
1994:Q2 0 0 1.4347 2.2867
1994:Q3 0 0 1.2795 2.109
1994:Q4 0 0 0.7571 2.1287
1995:Q1 0 0 0.4707 1.4341
1995:Q2 0 0 0.6166 0.4225
1995:Q3 0 0 0.6289 0.4165
1995:Q4 0 0 0.5091 0.0584
1996:Q1 0 0 0.8105 0.2636
1996:Q2 0 0 0.7573 1.3136
1996:Q3 0 0 0.6807 1.2306
1996:Q4 0 0 0.6567 0.7645
1997:Q1 0 0 0.6344 0.968
1997:Q2 0 0 0.545 1.1227
1997:Q3 0 0 0.4824 0.674
1997:Q4 0 0 0.2833 0.3352
1998:Q1 0 0 0.2833 0.0197
1998:Q2 0 0 0.1847 0.2434
1998:Q3 0 0 0.1785 -0.0603
1998:Q4 0 0 0.4764 -0.2121
1999:Q1 0 0 0.4739 0.3137
1999:Q2 0 0 0.5753 0.7925
1999:Q3 0 0 0.6316 0.8517
1999:Q4 0 0 0.555 0.7889
2000:Q1 0 0 0.1356 0.8794
2000:Q2 0 0 -0.1837 0.4236
2000:Q3 0 0 -0.1462 -0.2742
2000:Q4 0 0 0.0149 -0.9432
2001:Q1 0 0 0.692 -0.4625
2001:Q2 0 1 1.3211 0.7562
2001:Q3 0 1 1.5984 0.8385
2001:Q4 0 1 2.278 1.7496
2002:Q1 0 0 2.3232 2.4406
2002:Q2 0 0 2.2694 2.4673
2002:Q3 0 0 2.4816 1.0412
2002:Q4 0 0 2.5483 0.9859
2003:Q1 0 0 2.6501 0.9132
2003:Q2 0 0 2.5164 0.6831
2003:Q3 0 0 2.8826 1.2786
2003:Q4 0 0 2.7428 1.5202
2004:Q1 0 0 2.6115 1.2494
2004:Q2 0 0 2.4177 2.1074
2004:Q3 0 0 2.0148 1.5088
2004:Q4 0 0 1.5784 1.0619
2005:Q1 0 0 0.9867 1.1276
2005:Q2 0 0 0.623 0.8484
2005:Q3 0 0 0.3395 0.4963
2005:Q4 0 0 0.2281 0.2466
2006:Q1 0 0 0.0524 -0.1437
2006:Q2 0 0 0.1528 -0.1137
2006:Q3 0 0 0.0358 -0.537
2006:Q4 0 0 -0.0229 -0.7343
2007:Q1 0 0 0.0025 -0.6758
2007:Q2 0 0 0.1153 -0.501
2007:Q3 0 0 0.4617 -0.4512
2007:Q4 0 0 0.9793 -0.5013
2008:Q1 0 1 1.9778 -0.3397
2008:Q2 0 1 1.8206 0.855
2008:Q3 0 1 1.8123 0.6936
2008:Q4 0 1 2.8483 -0.0116
2009:Q1 1 1 2.5445 0.5841
2009:Q2 1 1 2.8076 1.26
2009:Q3 1 0 2.9423 1.5897
2009:Q4 1 0 2.9704 1.4179
2010:Q1 1 0 3.1296 1.4822
2010:Q2 1 0 2.8953 1.1927
2010:Q3 1 0 2.4976 0.484
2010:Q4 1 0 2.633 0.3891
2011:Q1 1 0 3.0071 0.9272
2011:Q2 1 0 2.8759 0.7915
2011:Q3 1 0 2.311 0.2213
2011:Q4 1 0 1.9028 0.2224
2012:Q1 1 0 1.8525 0.191
2012:Q2 1 0 1.5808 0.1457
2012:Q3 1 0 1.4327 0.0658
2012:Q4 1 0 1.4796 0.0757
2013:Q1 1 0 1.7559 0.1411
2013:Q2 1 0 1.7797 0.2515
2013:Q3 1 0 2.4679 0.5453
2013:Q4 1 0 2.5637 0.3689
2014:Q1 1 0 2.5161 0.524
2014:Q2 1 0 2.302 0.6657
2014:Q3 1 0 2.0534 0.9006
2014:Q4 1 0 1.7978 0.8786
2015:Q1 0 0 1.4199 0.9646
2015:Q2 0 0 1.628 0.9389
2015:Q3 0 0 1.5931 0.9182
2015:Q4 0 0 1.4184 0.8485
2016:Q1 0 0 1.1456 0.5606
2016:Q2 0 0 1.0398 0.4903
2016:Q3 0 0 0.8661 0.3594
2016:Q4 0 0 1.1805 0.7091
2017:Q1 0 0 1.2685 0.8968
2017:Q2 0 0 1.0121 0.3881
2017:Q3 0 0 0.9191 0.2986
2017:Q4 0 0 0.7027 0.4486
2018:Q1 0 0 0.6131 0.6321

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 2: Near-term Forward Spread and Market-Expected Paths of Short Rates

Period Effective Lower Bound Period Recesssion 0-to-6 Quarter (Near-Term) Spread Slope of Blue Chip Fed Funds Expectations
1972:Q1 0 0 2.1019 na
1972:Q2 0 0 1.9044 na
1972:Q3 0 0 1.6789 na
1972:Q4 0 0 1.3501 na
1973:Q1 0 0 0.5996 na
1973:Q2 0 0 0.777 na
1973:Q3 0 0 -1.1411 na
1973:Q4 0 1 -1.5065 na
1974:Q1 0 1 -1.5353 na
1974:Q2 0 1 -1.2862 na
1974:Q3 0 1 -0.9372 na
1974:Q4 0 1 -0.2222 na
1975:Q1 0 1 0.7481 na
1975:Q2 0 0 1.8363 na
1975:Q3 0 0 1.5321 na
1975:Q4 0 0 1.8541 na
1976:Q1 0 0 2.1497 na
1976:Q2 0 0 1.9144 na
1976:Q3 0 0 1.69 na
1976:Q4 0 0 1.2792 na
1977:Q1 0 0 1.7054 na
1977:Q2 0 0 1.3948 na
1977:Q3 0 0 0.8396 na
1977:Q4 0 0 0.5672 na
1978:Q1 0 0 0.7638 na
1978:Q2 0 0 0.9657 na
1978:Q3 0 0 0.4433 na
1978:Q4 0 0 -0.7752 na
1979:Q1 0 0 -0.937 na
1979:Q2 0 0 -0.9363 na
1979:Q3 0 0 -1.5356 na
1979:Q4 0 0 -2.5258 na
1980:Q1 0 1 -2.2002 na
1980:Q2 0 1 -0.7946 na
1980:Q3 0 0 0.9978 na
1980:Q4 0 0 -2.595 na
1981:Q1 0 0 -2.8943 na
1981:Q2 0 0 -2.4024 na
1981:Q3 0 1 -1.4156 na
1981:Q4 0 1 1.1494 na
1982:Q1 0 1 0.4023 na
1982:Q2 0 1 0.5696 na
1982:Q3 0 1 2.9398 na
1982:Q4 0 1 2.3306 1.2471
1983:Q1 0 0 1.7929 0.5729
1983:Q2 0 0 1.4774 0.4059
1983:Q3 0 0 1.8371 -0.0406
1983:Q4 0 0 2.0349 0.7087
1984:Q1 0 0 1.8058 0.6336
1984:Q2 0 0 2.2381 0.8579
1984:Q3 0 0 1.9089 1.4978
1984:Q4 0 0 2.1435 2.4536
1985:Q1 0 0 2.4603 1.2564
1985:Q2 0 0 2.4605 1.7043
1985:Q3 0 0 2.469 1.3194
1985:Q4 0 0 1.7629 1.1044
1986:Q1 0 0 0.8798 1.026
1986:Q2 0 0 1.2782 1.4414
1986:Q3 0 0 1.3991 1.385
1986:Q4 0 0 1.1567 0.9538
1987:Q1 0 0 0.7995 0.5949
1987:Q2 0 0 1.7256 0.5907
1987:Q3 0 0 1.8038 0.6671
1987:Q4 0 0 1.9688 0.7344
1988:Q1 0 0 1.4194 1.1513
1988:Q2 0 0 1.6855 1.2308
1988:Q3 0 0 1.1746 0.7529
1988:Q4 0 0 0.5369 -0.032
1989:Q1 0 0 0.2441 -0.8134
1989:Q2 0 0 -0.2015 -0.2032
1989:Q3 0 0 -0.3894 0.076
1989:Q4 0 0 -0.3691 0.2353
1990:Q1 0 0 0.242 -0.1254
1990:Q2 0 0 0.533 0.0236
1990:Q3 0 1 0.4603 0.022
1990:Q4 0 1 0.5574 0.0279
1991:Q1 0 1 1.2033 0.4705
1991:Q2 0 0 1.8406 0.8774
1991:Q3 0 0 1.6865 1.0841
1991:Q4 0 0 1.5804 1.2287
1992:Q1 0 0 2.3999 1.1456
1992:Q2 0 0 2.6007 1.6467
1992:Q3 0 0 2.0025 1.8291
1992:Q4 0 0 2.3005 1.1116
1993:Q1 0 0 1.8101 1.0504
1993:Q2 0 0 1.5809 0.8811
1993:Q3 0 0 1.4211 0.9119
1993:Q4 0 0 1.4588 0.5735
1994:Q1 0 0 1.7579 0.499
1994:Q2 0 0 2.2867 0.4246
1994:Q3 0 0 2.109 0.7038
1994:Q4 0 0 2.1287 0.7741
1995:Q1 0 0 1.4341 0.7976
1995:Q2 0 0 0.4225 0.5857
1995:Q3 0 0 0.4165 -0.1244
1995:Q4 0 0 0.0584 -0.0934
1996:Q1 0 0 0.2636 -0.1671
1996:Q2 0 0 1.3136 -0.0973
1996:Q3 0 0 1.2306 0.2514
1996:Q4 0 0 0.7645 0.1833
1997:Q1 0 0 0.968 -0.1007
1997:Q2 0 0 1.1227 0.1623
1997:Q3 0 0 0.674 0.1457
1997:Q4 0 0 0.3352 0.0431
1998:Q1 0 0 0.0197 -0.1452
1998:Q2 0 0 0.2434 0.0305
1998:Q3 0 0 -0.0603 0.1263
1998:Q4 0 0 -0.2121 -0.0905
1999:Q1 0 0 0.3137 -0.1301
1999:Q2 0 0 0.7925 0
1999:Q3 0 0 0.8517 0.1877
1999:Q4 0 0 0.7889 0.1916
2000:Q1 0 0 0.8794 0.2489
2000:Q2 0 0 0.4236 0.4222
2000:Q3 0 0 -0.2742 0.2334
2000:Q4 0 0 -0.9432 -0.087
2001:Q1 0 0 -0.4625 0.3345
2001:Q2 0 1 0.7562 0.5349
2001:Q3 0 1 0.8385 0.68
2001:Q4 0 1 1.7496 1.3888
2002:Q1 0 0 2.4406 1.4013
2002:Q2 0 0 2.4673 1.9601
2002:Q3 0 0 1.0412 1.6128
2002:Q4 0 0 0.9859 1.4175
2003:Q1 0 0 0.9132 1.3125
2003:Q2 0 0 0.6831 1.3032
2003:Q3 0 0 1.2786 0.909
2003:Q4 0 0 1.5202 1.1738
2004:Q1 0 0 1.2494 1.4429
2004:Q2 0 0 2.1074 1.524
2004:Q3 0 0 1.5088 1.8992
2004:Q4 0 0 1.0619 1.4577
2005:Q1 0 0 1.1276 1.3059
2005:Q2 0 0 0.8484 1.2464
2005:Q3 0 0 0.4963 0.7405
2005:Q4 0 0 0.2466 0.4196
2006:Q1 0 0 -0.1437 -0.0075
2006:Q2 0 0 -0.1137 -0.1994
2006:Q3 0 0 -0.537 -0.2877
2006:Q4 0 0 -0.7343 -0.3113
2007:Q1 0 0 -0.6758 -0.2649
2007:Q2 0 0 -0.501 -0.1774
2007:Q3 0 0 -0.4512 0.2929
2007:Q4 0 0 -0.5013 0.516
2008:Q1 0 1 -0.3397 0.9302
2008:Q2 0 1 0.855 0.6687
2008:Q3 0 1 0.6936 1.0446
2008:Q4 0 1 -0.0116 0.7803
2009:Q1 1 1 0.5841 0.3714
2009:Q2 1 1 1.26 0.549
2009:Q3 1 0 1.5897 1.0347
2009:Q4 1 0 1.4179 1.3377
2010:Q1 1 0 1.4822 1.4879
2010:Q2 1 0 1.1927 1.3936
2010:Q3 1 0 0.484 1.0212
2010:Q4 1 0 0.3891 0.5656
2011:Q1 1 0 0.9272 0.6675
2011:Q2 1 0 0.7915 1.0872
2011:Q3 1 0 0.2213 0.6696
2011:Q4 1 0 0.2224 -0.0076
2012:Q1 1 0 0.191 -0.0337
2012:Q2 1 0 0.1457 0.0117
2012:Q3 1 0 0.0658 0.0234
2012:Q4 1 0 0.0757 -0.034
2013:Q1 1 0 0.1411 -0.0263
2013:Q2 1 0 0.2515 0.05
2013:Q3 1 0 0.5453 0.0703
2013:Q4 1 0 0.3689 0.0069
2014:Q1 1 0 0.524 0.0621
2014:Q2 1 0 0.6657 0.3096
2014:Q3 1 0 0.9006 0.648
2014:Q4 1 0 0.8786 0.9455
2015:Q1 0 0 0.9646 1.3167
2015:Q2 0 0 0.9389 1.3566
2015:Q3 0 0 0.9182 1.4165
2015:Q4 0 0 0.8485 1.0798
2016:Q1 0 0 0.5606 1.0285
2016:Q2 0 0 0.4903 0.9535
2016:Q3 0 0 0.3594 0.652
2016:Q4 0 0 0.7091 0.6258
2017:Q1 0 0 0.8968 0.8092
2017:Q2 0 0 0.3881 0.7675
2017:Q3 0 0 0.2986 0.8078
2017:Q4 0 0 0.4486 0.7123
2018:Q1 0 0 0.6321 0.6838

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 3: Estimated Recession Probabilities

Period Effective Lower Bound Period Recession Long-Term Spread Model Near-Term Spread Model
1972:Q1 0 0 0.0585 0.0016
1972:Q2 0 0 0.1186 0.0036
1972:Q3 0 0 0.1675 0.0081
1972:Q4 0 0 0.2374 0.0235
1973:Q1 0 0 0.4502 0.1506
1973:Q2 0 0 0.5504 0.104
1973:Q3 0 0 0.7788 0.8804
1973:Q4 0 1 0.5717 0.9496
1974:Q1 0 1 0.4617 0.9533
1974:Q2 0 1 0.714 0.9133
1974:Q3 0 1 0.7095 0.8207
1974:Q4 0 1 0.5068 0.5039
1975:Q1 0 1 0.1746 0.1108
1975:Q2 0 0 0.1684 0.0046
1975:Q3 0 0 0.3841 0.0133
1975:Q4 0 0 0.1672 0.0043
1976:Q1 0 0 0.0937 0.0013
1976:Q2 0 0 0.1315 0.0034
1976:Q3 0 0 0.0809 0.0078
1976:Q4 0 0 0.0276 0.0289
1977:Q1 0 0 0.0519 0.0074
1977:Q2 0 0 0.0488 0.0205
1977:Q3 0 0 0.1331 0.0903
1977:Q4 0 0 0.2481 0.1604
1978:Q1 0 0 0.2392 0.107
1978:Q2 0 0 0.349 0.067
1978:Q3 0 0 0.4746 0.2017
1978:Q4 0 0 0.7427 0.7618
1979:Q1 0 0 0.7953 0.8206
1979:Q2 0 0 0.687 0.8204
1979:Q3 0 0 0.6899 0.9533
1979:Q4 0 0 0.8703 0.9983
1980:Q1 0 1 0.9198 0.9942
1980:Q2 0 1 0.2955 0.7694
1980:Q3 0 0 0.2393 0.0618
1980:Q4 0 0 0.7956 0.9988
1981:Q1 0 0 0.6644 0.9997
1981:Q2 0 0 0.8573 0.9973
1981:Q3 0 1 0.9319 0.9364
1981:Q4 0 1 0.4402 0.0416
1982:Q1 0 1 0.5856 0.2167
1982:Q2 0 1 0.6503 0.1597
1982:Q3 0 1 0.3648 0
1982:Q4 0 1 0.1322 0.0006
1983:Q1 0 0 0.0579 0.0054
1983:Q2 0 0 0.0868 0.0158
1983:Q3 0 0 0.1061 0.0046
1983:Q4 0 0 0.0592 0.0021
1984:Q1 0 0 0.0626 0.0051
1984:Q2 0 0 0.0979 0.0009
1984:Q3 0 0 0.267 0.0035
1984:Q4 0 0 0.1081 0.0014
1985:Q1 0 0 0.036 0.0003
1985:Q2 0 0 0.0183 0.0003
1985:Q3 0 0 0.0139 0.0003
1985:Q4 0 0 0.0233 0.006
1986:Q1 0 0 0.0876 0.0823
1986:Q2 0 0 0.1437 0.029
1986:Q3 0 0 0.0497 0.0202
1986:Q4 0 0 0.0297 0.0408
1987:Q1 0 0 0.0648 0.0989
1987:Q2 0 0 0.0763 0.0069
1987:Q3 0 0 0.0459 0.0052
1987:Q4 0 0 0.0463 0.0028
1988:Q1 0 0 0.0341 0.019
1988:Q2 0 0 0.0436 0.0079
1988:Q3 0 0 0.124 0.0389
1988:Q4 0 0 0.2858 0.17
1989:Q1 0 0 0.5585 0.2802
1989:Q2 0 0 0.5312 0.4934
1989:Q3 0 0 0.403 0.5879
1989:Q4 0 0 0.3873 0.5779
1990:Q1 0 0 0.3852 0.281
1990:Q2 0 0 0.3644 0.1712
1990:Q3 0 1 0.1611 0.1957
1990:Q4 0 1 0.1108 0.1635
1991:Q1 0 1 0.0573 0.0359
1991:Q2 0 0 0.0316 0.0045
1991:Q3 0 0 0.016 0.0079
1991:Q4 0 0 0.0025 0.0113
1992:Q1 0 0 0.0013 0.0004
1992:Q2 0 0 0.0006 0.0002
1992:Q3 0 0 0.0001 0.0024
1992:Q4 0 0 0.0003 0.0007
1993:Q1 0 0 0.0005 0.0051
1993:Q2 0 0 0.0011 0.0113
1993:Q3 0 0 0.0059 0.0189
1993:Q4 0 0 0.0089 0.0168
1994:Q1 0 0 0.0103 0.0061
1994:Q2 0 0 0.0298 0.0007
1994:Q3 0 0 0.0456 0.0016
1994:Q4 0 0 0.1502 0.0015
1995:Q1 0 0 0.2492 0.0181
1995:Q2 0 0 0.195 0.2093
1995:Q3 0 0 0.1908 0.2115
1995:Q4 0 0 0.2342 0.3645
1996:Q1 0 0 0.1352 0.2719
1996:Q2 0 0 0.1501 0.0261
1996:Q3 0 0 0.1737 0.0332
1996:Q4 0 0 0.1815 0.1069
1997:Q1 0 0 0.1889 0.0666
1997:Q2 0 0 0.2207 0.0447
1997:Q3 0 0 0.2446 0.1296
1997:Q4 0 0 0.3291 0.2426
1998:Q1 0 0 0.3291 0.3831
1998:Q2 0 0 0.3749 0.2805
1998:Q3 0 0 0.3779 0.4224
1998:Q4 0 0 0.247 0.4988
1999:Q1 0 0 0.248 0.2512
1999:Q2 0 0 0.2096 0.1005
1999:Q3 0 0 0.1899 0.0879
1999:Q4 0 0 0.217 0.1013
2000:Q1 0 0 0.3984 0.0824
2000:Q2 0 0 0.5566 0.2089
2000:Q3 0 0 0.538 0.5303
2000:Q4 0 0 0.4577 0.8227
2001:Q1 0 0 0.17 0.6237
2001:Q2 0 1 0.0408 0.1088
2001:Q3 0 1 0.0184 0.0906
2001:Q4 0 1 0.0016 0.0063
2002:Q1 0 0 0.0014 0.0004
2002:Q2 0 0 0.0017 0.0003
2002:Q3 0 0 0.0007 0.0554
2002:Q4 0 0 0.0005 0.0637
2003:Q1 0 0 0.0003 0.076
2003:Q2 0 0 0.0006 0.1272
2003:Q3 0 0 0.0001 0.029
2003:Q4 0 0 0.0002 0.0138
2004:Q1 0 0 0.0004 0.0315
2004:Q2 0 0 0.0009 0.0016
2004:Q3 0 0 0.0045 0.0143
2004:Q4 0 0 0.0195 0.0525
2005:Q1 0 0 0.0929 0.0441
2005:Q2 0 0 0.1928 0.0885
2005:Q3 0 0 0.3041 0.1834
2005:Q4 0 0 0.3545 0.2791
2006:Q1 0 0 0.4391 0.4642
2006:Q2 0 0 0.3902 0.4491
2006:Q3 0 0 0.4473 0.659
2006:Q4 0 0 0.4765 0.7454
2007:Q1 0 0 0.4638 0.721
2007:Q2 0 0 0.4082 0.6421
2007:Q3 0 0 0.2528 0.6182
2007:Q4 0 0 0.0945 0.6422
2008:Q1 0 1 0.0052 0.5632
2008:Q2 0 1 0.009 0.0872
2008:Q3 0 1 0.0092 0.1244
2008:Q4 0 1 0.0001 0.3983
2009:Q1 1 1 0.0005 0.1553
2009:Q2 1 1 0.0002 0.0306
2009:Q3 1 0 0.0001 0.011
2009:Q4 1 0 0.0001 0.0191
2010:Q1 1 0 0 0.0156
2010:Q2 1 0 0.0001 0.037
2010:Q3 1 0 0.0007 0.1875
2010:Q4 1 0 0.0004 0.2217
2011:Q1 1 0 0.0001 0.0735
2011:Q2 1 0 0.0001 0.1007
2011:Q3 1 0 0.0014 0.29
2011:Q4 1 0 0.0068 0.2895
2012:Q1 1 0 0.008 0.3033
2012:Q2 1 0 0.0194 0.3237
2012:Q3 1 0 0.03 0.3609
2012:Q4 1 0 0.0262 0.3563
2013:Q1 1 0 0.0111 0.3258
2013:Q2 1 0 0.0103 0.277
2013:Q3 1 0 0.0007 0.1673
2013:Q4 1 0 0.0005 0.2294
2014:Q1 1 0 0.0006 0.1742
2014:Q2 1 0 0.0015 0.1318
2014:Q3 1 0 0.0039 0.0784
2014:Q4 1 0 0.0097 0.0825
2015:Q1 0 0 0.0311 0.0671
2015:Q2 0 0 0.0168 0.0715
2015:Q3 0 0 0.0187 0.0751
2015:Q4 0 0 0.0312 0.0885
2016:Q1 0 0 0.064 0.1625
2016:Q2 0 0 0.0824 0.1854
2016:Q3 0 0 0.1206 0.2331
2016:Q4 0 0 0.0587 0.1204
2017:Q1 0 0 0.0469 0.0791
2017:Q2 0 0 0.0877 0.2221
2017:Q3 0 0 0.1078 0.2573
2017:Q4 0 0 0.1667 0.1999
2018:Q1 0 0 0.1962 0.1411

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Last Update: June 28, 2018