Accessible Version
Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies
Figure 1A (Left Figure) - 12-month Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies
| Period | Headline | Core |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2017 | 1.837406931 | 1.344446248 |
| 02/28/2017 | 2.014074678 | 1.371747907 |
| 03/31/2017 | 1.62098888 | 1.158043266 |
| 04/30/2017 | 1.889004307 | 1.376985219 |
| 05/31/2017 | 1.426753807 | 1.175661894 |
| 06/30/2017 | 1.275688812 | 1.302995374 |
| 07/31/2017 | 1.364590208 | 1.29467615 |
| 08/31/2017 | 1.573089684 | 1.338633518 |
| 09/30/2017 | 1.642474398 | 1.278248598 |
| 10/31/2017 | 1.493715354 | 1.209751006 |
| 11/30/2017 | 1.871602096 | 1.378993677 |
| 12/31/2017 | 1.668967228 | 1.327716968 |
| 01/31/2018 | 1.528190569 | 1.273395567 |
| 02/28/2018 | 1.517691596 | 1.390516099 |
| 03/31/2018 | 1.785387618 | 1.464207492 |
| 04/30/2018 | 1.566800523 | 1.214272334 |
| 05/31/2018 | 2.100357615 | 1.410890233 |
| 06/30/2018 | 2.156746294 | 1.269704226 |
| 07/31/2018 | 2.388372861 | 1.443187464 |
| 08/31/2018 | 2.319805804 | 1.461780017 |
| 09/30/2018 | 2.236303961 | 1.42662668 |
| 10/31/2018 | 2.400784131 | 1.542568 |
| 11/30/2018 | 1.904742798 | 1.351667038 |
| 12/31/2018 | 1.697125694 | 1.440270736 |
| 01/31/2019 | 1.43460771 | 1.373308224 |
| 02/28/2019 | 1.512666872 | 1.283721057 |
| 03/31/2019 | 1.587794868 | 1.269072996 |
| 04/30/2019 | 1.858792042 | 1.587034054 |
| 05/31/2019 | 1.644812719 | 1.451514021 |
| 06/30/2019 | 1.586283216 | 1.553088778 |
| 07/31/2019 | 1.417130785 | 1.377618215 |
| 08/31/2019 | 1.358538103 | 1.429515483 |
| 09/30/2019 | 1.285238978 | 1.526027713 |
| 10/31/2019 | 1.173421113 | 1.547851334 |
| 11/30/2019 | 1.383182315 | 1.523847309 |
| 12/31/2019 | 1.63855206 | 1.419175211 |
| 01/31/2020 | 1.655116012 | 1.316933432 |
| 02/29/2020 | 1.502809164 | 1.382107595 |
| 03/31/2020 | 0.808467228 | 1.297143725 |
| 04/30/2020 | 0.212247801 | 1.054502957 |
| 05/31/2020 | 0.006034368 | 0.892382205 |
| 06/30/2020 | 0.414357544 | 0.95304876 |
| 07/31/2020 | 0.379779921 | 1.065760092 |
| 08/31/2020 | 0.026857279 | 0.523896008 |
| 09/30/2020 | 0.096405977 | 0.502970295 |
| 10/31/2020 | 0.093048674 | 0.508494414 |
| 11/30/2020 | 0.14543199 | 0.640184216 |
| 12/31/2020 | 0.102676684 | 0.585961818 |
| 01/31/2021 | 0.913140469 | 1.333100808 |
| 02/28/2021 | 0.925951169 | 0.941321052 |
| 03/31/2021 | 1.563355405 | 0.984109781 |
| 04/30/2021 | 2.165448762 | 1.147432918 |
| 05/31/2021 | 2.532627278 | 1.435481512 |
| 06/30/2021 | 2.321010934 | 1.429273926 |
| 07/31/2021 | 2.65733772 | 1.493800198 |
| 08/31/2021 | 3.395692986 | 2.174150389 |
| 09/30/2021 | 3.726662023 | 2.386943906 |
| 10/31/2021 | 4.267652767 | 2.518410855 |
| 11/30/2021 | 4.837095811 | 2.837271822 |
| 12/31/2021 | 4.952636446 | 2.978800016 |
| 01/31/2022 | 5.122555513 | 2.805852798 |
| 02/28/2022 | 5.80891336 | 3.287681235 |
| 03/31/2022 | 7.102385522 | 3.680027374 |
| 04/30/2022 | 7.337152267 | 4.050178685 |
| 05/31/2022 | 7.978536804 | 4.302637772 |
| 06/30/2022 | 8.431965766 | 4.39205794 |
| 07/31/2022 | 8.488589289 | 4.615895942 |
| 08/31/2022 | 8.4678922 | 4.783248211 |
| 09/30/2022 | 8.958005759 | 5.084028219 |
| 10/31/2022 | 9.43301376 | 5.256075213 |
Figure 1B (Right Figure) - Persistence Coefficients
| Period | Canada | Euro Area | United Kingdom |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2017 | 0.124108031 | 0.008953643 | 0.163746492 |
| 02/01/2017 | 0.124268631 | 0.012127821 | 0.176377643 |
| 03/01/2017 | 0.125623947 | 0.014943762 | 0.182388469 |
| 04/01/2017 | 0.127865799 | 0.018142652 | 0.183955061 |
| 05/01/2017 | 0.130373651 | 0.018585185 | 0.175340971 |
| 06/01/2017 | 0.132538756 | 0.020311078 | 0.161901725 |
| 07/01/2017 | 0.134879733 | 0.020854536 | 0.153896455 |
| 08/01/2017 | 0.137903403 | 0.020903032 | 0.151334365 |
| 09/01/2017 | 0.141588248 | 0.020705185 | 0.14160139 |
| 10/01/2017 | 0.144707717 | 0.020375159 | 0.132059472 |
| 11/01/2017 | 0.148208607 | 0.022493078 | 0.132245978 |
| 12/01/2017 | 0.150139663 | 0.024677001 | 0.125997586 |
| 01/01/2018 | 0.152867308 | 0.027105793 | 0.121904558 |
| 02/01/2018 | 0.154823493 | 0.030298858 | 0.114949207 |
| 03/01/2018 | 0.156256067 | 0.033352552 | 0.109558443 |
| 04/01/2018 | 0.157392722 | 0.034554286 | 0.109344062 |
| 05/01/2018 | 0.159811409 | 0.037471636 | 0.107197955 |
| 06/01/2018 | 0.162767611 | 0.039987265 | 0.102308474 |
| 07/01/2018 | 0.16602785 | 0.042994537 | 0.102863361 |
| 08/01/2018 | 0.167592412 | 0.045378385 | 0.106128349 |
| 09/01/2018 | 0.169073109 | 0.047662576 | 0.10108755 |
| 10/01/2018 | 0.1720425 | 0.050581978 | 0.10123137 |
| 11/01/2018 | 0.174965961 | 0.05386148 | 0.104974109 |
| 12/01/2018 | 0.178331496 | 0.058904603 | 0.106815138 |
| 01/01/2019 | 0.180702137 | 0.063674687 | 0.103685625 |
| 02/01/2019 | 0.18425421 | 0.068668804 | 0.097056493 |
| 03/01/2019 | 0.186855163 | 0.074472752 | 0.094266268 |
| 04/01/2019 | 0.189931653 | 0.080388296 | 0.093977252 |
| 05/01/2019 | 0.193442656 | 0.084480824 | 0.093720856 |
| 06/01/2019 | 0.195764223 | 0.089098168 | 0.098335488 |
| 07/01/2019 | 0.198645825 | 0.093254301 | 0.104974193 |
| 08/01/2019 | 0.200433182 | 0.098560296 | 0.105704794 |
| 09/01/2019 | 0.202537116 | 0.102625675 | 0.109894378 |
| 10/01/2019 | 0.206386967 | 0.106810316 | 0.114256621 |
| 11/01/2019 | 0.210080719 | 0.111469027 | 0.122070559 |
| 12/01/2019 | 0.214228913 | 0.115973729 | 0.128166307 |
| 01/01/2020 | 0.218852311 | 0.120852266 | 0.138949693 |
| 02/01/2020 | 0.223372802 | 0.126694028 | 0.14814005 |
| 03/01/2020 | 0.227035221 | 0.1328368 | 0.154699133 |
| 04/01/2020 | 0.232234906 | 0.139403484 | 0.162646619 |
| 05/01/2020 | 0.237537503 | 0.145995759 | 0.17303397 |
| 06/01/2020 | 0.243274493 | 0.152965267 | 0.185035231 |
| 07/01/2020 | 0.248999333 | 0.159295924 | 0.196204041 |
| 08/01/2020 | 0.255476089 | 0.165266368 | 0.205448116 |
| 09/01/2020 | 0.26195664 | 0.174350247 | 0.220079942 |
| 10/01/2020 | 0.268827263 | 0.182692887 | 0.23464528 |
| 11/01/2020 | 0.275155615 | 0.191166483 | 0.249242832 |
| 12/01/2020 | 0.280747453 | 0.199521568 | 0.265943401 |
| 01/01/2021 | 0.287343932 | 0.208356916 | 0.283453202 |
| 02/01/2021 | 0.292958312 | 0.216120835 | 0.299946773 |
| 03/01/2021 | 0.300313581 | 0.224321928 | 0.321235654 |
| 04/01/2021 | 0.307990503 | 0.233506605 | 0.344081813 |
| 05/01/2021 | 0.315190153 | 0.242885359 | 0.368455701 |
| 06/01/2021 | 0.322649032 | 0.252538523 | 0.38896579 |
| 07/01/2021 | 0.329140607 | 0.262561701 | 0.403352215 |
| 08/01/2021 | 0.3357215 | 0.272510584 | 0.423124427 |
| 09/01/2021 | 0.340431197 | 0.281292703 | 0.441595927 |
| 10/01/2021 | 0.344915906 | 0.2907033 | 0.462980211 |
| 11/01/2021 | 0.350078318 | 0.298514511 | 0.476869002 |
| 12/01/2021 | 0.355287407 | 0.305016989 | 0.487315189 |
| 01/01/2022 | 0.360939996 | 0.312010022 | 0.499111295 |
| 02/01/2022 | 0.364995573 | 0.317647899 | 0.507279363 |
| 03/01/2022 | 0.370181756 | 0.324036663 | 0.514535747 |
| 04/01/2022 | 0.373583548 | 0.330507463 | 0.506924875 |
| 05/01/2022 | 0.374604896 | 0.337124623 | 0.495257787 |
| 06/01/2022 | 0.373274459 | 0.342419371 | 0.499223646 |
| 07/01/2022 | 0.370969649 | 0.348920664 | 0.499891058 |
| 08/01/2022 | 0.36789871 | 0.354694849 | 0.508982204 |
| 09/01/2022 | 0.366588514 | 0.358388852 | 0.519781269 |
| 10/01/2022 | 0.364743581 | 0.359756798 | 0.518621724 |
Note: Selected advanced economies are an import-weighted average of Canada, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. Persistence coefficients are computed from a statistical model in which monthly inflation depends on its own lags and are the sum of the estimated coefficients on the lagged variables. The estimated coefficients are allowed to vary over time.
Source: Statistics Canada, Eurostat, and Office for National Statistics, via Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Figure 2. Common Component of Core Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies
Figure 2A (Left Figure) - Canada
12-month inflation
| Period | Core Inflation | Common Component | Idiosyncratic Component |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2017 | 2.22039485 | 1.643641353 | 0.576753497 |
| 02/01/2017 | 2.04415369 | 1.645590305 | 0.398563385 |
| 03/01/2017 | 1.705930114 | 1.59796989 | 0.107960224 |
| 04/01/2017 | 1.540956974 | 1.586479425 | -0.045522451 |
| 05/01/2017 | 1.373182535 | 1.505802274 | -0.132619739 |
| 06/01/2017 | 1.372074246 | 1.529116273 | -0.157042027 |
| 07/01/2017 | 1.453958035 | 1.582086563 | -0.128128529 |
| 08/01/2017 | 1.453958035 | 1.618541956 | -0.164583921 |
| 09/01/2017 | 1.206757903 | 1.646915913 | -0.44015801 |
| 10/01/2017 | 1.365461826 | 1.675516367 | -0.310054541 |
| 11/01/2017 | 1.774193525 | 1.695468068 | 0.078725457 |
| 12/01/2017 | 1.700404882 | 1.754542589 | -0.054137707 |
| 01/01/2018 | 1.528559923 | 1.872965097 | -0.344405174 |
| 02/01/2018 | 1.842948675 | 2.015176535 | -0.172227859 |
| 03/01/2018 | 1.91693294 | 2.097716808 | -0.180783868 |
| 04/01/2018 | 1.83706069 | 2.110852242 | -0.273791552 |
| 05/01/2018 | 1.673306823 | 2.149348021 | -0.476041198 |
| 06/01/2018 | 1.751592398 | 2.168860674 | -0.417268276 |
| 07/01/2018 | 2.308917284 | 2.178542614 | 0.13037467 |
| 08/01/2018 | 2.308917284 | 2.235857964 | 0.07305932 |
| 09/01/2018 | 1.828298926 | 2.184610367 | -0.35631144 |
| 10/01/2018 | 2.06022191 | 2.165543318 | -0.105321407 |
| 11/01/2018 | 1.743264675 | 2.135126114 | -0.391861439 |
| 12/01/2018 | 2.308917284 | 2.087135792 | 0.221781492 |
| 01/01/2019 | 1.901743293 | 2.122412443 | -0.22066915 |
| 02/01/2019 | 1.966955185 | 2.039152622 | -0.072197437 |
| 03/01/2019 | 1.880877733 | 2.04622221 | -0.165344477 |
| 04/01/2019 | 2.039215803 | 2.033060074 | 0.006155729 |
| 05/01/2019 | 2.429467201 | 2.069210768 | 0.360256433 |
| 06/01/2019 | 2.347417831 | 2.057347059 | 0.290070772 |
| 07/01/2019 | 2.178988218 | 2.119460106 | 0.059528112 |
| 08/01/2019 | 2.178988218 | 2.055581808 | 0.12340641 |
| 09/01/2019 | 2.107728243 | 2.047383308 | 0.060344934 |
| 10/01/2019 | 2.018633604 | 2.071350574 | -0.05271697 |
| 11/01/2019 | 2.024922132 | 2.124153852 | -0.09923172 |
| 12/01/2019 | 1.789883256 | 2.110723495 | -0.32084024 |
| 01/01/2020 | 1.866251945 | 1.982206702 | -0.115954757 |
| 02/01/2020 | 1.929012299 | 1.925979018 | 0.00303328 |
| 03/01/2020 | 1.692307711 | 1.738041997 | -0.045734286 |
| 04/01/2020 | 1.306687117 | 1.659843802 | -0.353156686 |
| 05/01/2020 | 0.61208874 | 1.526871681 | -0.914782941 |
| 06/01/2020 | 0.993883789 | 1.588197231 | -0.594313443 |
| 07/01/2020 | 0.456968784 | 1.493442059 | -1.036473274 |
| 08/01/2020 | 0.456968784 | 1.578502774 | -1.12153399 |
| 09/01/2020 | 0.840978622 | 1.618754029 | -0.777775407 |
| 10/01/2020 | 0.837138534 | 1.675574422 | -0.838435888 |
| 11/01/2020 | 1.297709942 | 1.630159736 | -0.332449794 |
| 12/01/2020 | 1.070336342 | 1.560245514 | -0.489909172 |
| 01/01/2021 | 1.374045849 | 1.614972234 | -0.240926385 |
| 02/01/2021 | 0.757002294 | 1.617426872 | -0.860424578 |
| 03/01/2021 | 0.907715559 | 1.758027315 | -0.850311756 |
| 04/01/2021 | 1.820940852 | 1.881052136 | -0.060111284 |
| 05/01/2021 | 2.357414484 | 2.01258564 | 0.344828844 |
| 06/01/2021 | 2.19530654 | 1.886144638 | 0.309161901 |
| 07/01/2021 | 2.805155516 | 2.002730131 | 0.802425385 |
| 08/01/2021 | 3.032600403 | 2.075658083 | 0.95694232 |
| 09/01/2021 | 3.260045528 | 2.118267059 | 1.141778469 |
| 10/01/2021 | 3.245283127 | 2.166368961 | 1.078914165 |
| 11/01/2021 | 3.089675903 | 2.32392025 | 0.765755653 |
| 12/01/2021 | 3.403933525 | 2.416975737 | 0.986957788 |
| 01/01/2022 | 3.539156675 | 2.629267693 | 0.909888983 |
| 02/01/2022 | 3.906836987 | 2.906668901 | 1.000168085 |
| 03/01/2022 | 4.647675991 | 3.116557837 | 1.531118155 |
| 04/01/2022 | 4.619970322 | 3.303416729 | 1.316553593 |
| 05/01/2022 | 5.200594425 | 3.535407782 | 1.665186644 |
| 06/01/2022 | 5.333333492 | 3.608047962 | 1.72528553 |
| 07/01/2022 | 5.530973434 | 3.806399107 | 1.724574327 |
| 08/01/2022 | 5.29801321 | 3.778812647 | 1.519200563 |
| 09/01/2022 | 5.433186531 | 3.903669357 | 1.529517174 |
| 10/01/2022 | 5.336257458 | 4.008398056 | 1.327859402 |
Figure 2B (Middle Figure) - Euro Area
12-month inflation
| Period | Core Inflation | Common Component of Core | Idiosyncratic Component |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2017 | 0.870093107 | 0.971422374 | -0.101329267 |
| 02/01/2017 | 0.836356282 | 0.97822386 | -0.141867578 |
| 03/01/2017 | 0.694444418 | 0.994470954 | -0.300026536 |
| 04/01/2017 | 1.257176757 | 1.001831055 | 0.255345702 |
| 05/01/2017 | 0.917883933 | 1.036942959 | -0.119059026 |
| 06/01/2017 | 1.18378222 | 1.052375078 | 0.131407142 |
| 07/01/2017 | 1.210317492 | 1.079187155 | 0.131130338 |
| 08/01/2017 | 1.227236748 | 1.085856438 | 0.14138031 |
| 09/01/2017 | 1.152595758 | 1.091093063 | 0.061502695 |
| 10/01/2017 | 0.875811875 | 1.094834566 | -0.219022691 |
| 11/01/2017 | 0.920427561 | 1.10250771 | -0.18208015 |
| 12/01/2017 | 0.916527033 | 1.10381186 | -0.187284827 |
| 01/01/2018 | 0.972918749 | 1.149241924 | -0.176323175 |
| 02/01/2018 | 0.99930048 | 1.137666583 | -0.138366103 |
| 03/01/2018 | 1.113300443 | 1.144403696 | -0.031103253 |
| 04/01/2018 | 0.733209491 | 1.156426787 | -0.423217297 |
| 05/01/2018 | 1.232273817 | 1.136050582 | 0.096223235 |
| 06/01/2018 | 0.965194523 | 1.135977149 | -0.170782626 |
| 07/01/2018 | 1.137031913 | 1.129553437 | 0.007478476 |
| 08/01/2018 | 1.036370754 | 1.131049752 | -0.094678998 |
| 09/01/2018 | 0.95442152 | 1.131579757 | -0.177158237 |
| 10/01/2018 | 1.180372596 | 1.147423029 | 0.032949567 |
| 11/01/2018 | 0.931646585 | 1.150853753 | -0.219207168 |
| 12/01/2018 | 0.927734375 | 1.135307312 | -0.207572937 |
| 01/01/2019 | 1.122479439 | 1.155643106 | -0.033163667 |
| 02/01/2019 | 0.989413261 | 1.171841979 | -0.182428718 |
| 03/01/2019 | 0.769755423 | 1.162334561 | -0.392579138 |
| 04/01/2019 | 1.290760875 | 1.168220162 | 0.122540712 |
| 05/01/2019 | 0.782533109 | 1.170684814 | -0.388151705 |
| 06/01/2019 | 1.120123625 | 1.159950733 | -0.039827108 |
| 07/01/2019 | 0.872262061 | 1.15682137 | -0.284559309 |
| 08/01/2019 | 0.948325932 | 1.154693007 | -0.206367075 |
| 09/01/2019 | 1.012926817 | 1.12641418 | -0.113487363 |
| 10/01/2019 | 1.070188999 | 1.108685613 | -0.038496614 |
| 11/01/2019 | 1.311698437 | 1.103806973 | 0.207891464 |
| 12/01/2019 | 1.296565056 | 1.104226828 | 0.192338228 |
| 01/01/2020 | 1.090373278 | 1.084123969 | 0.006249309 |
| 02/01/2020 | 1.214852571 | 1.090947747 | 0.123904824 |
| 03/01/2020 | 1.034616113 | 1.088929415 | -0.054313302 |
| 04/01/2020 | 0.85273546 | 1.086396337 | -0.233660877 |
| 05/01/2020 | 0.901073635 | 1.067112923 | -0.166039288 |
| 06/01/2020 | 0.830786884 | 1.050516844 | -0.21972996 |
| 07/01/2020 | 1.181783199 | 0.9516958 | 0.230087399 |
| 08/01/2020 | 0.37384969 | 0.872178435 | -0.498328745 |
| 09/01/2020 | 0.210104093 | 0.840175748 | -0.630071655 |
| 10/01/2020 | 0.228942096 | 0.813761234 | -0.584819138 |
| 11/01/2020 | 0.249352649 | 0.792489588 | -0.543136939 |
| 12/01/2020 | 0.229248255 | 0.7990219 | -0.569773644 |
| 01/01/2021 | 1.408998132 | 0.904264808 | 0.504733324 |
| 02/01/2021 | 1.113154531 | 0.889549673 | 0.223604858 |
| 03/01/2021 | 0.937888801 | 0.918871164 | 0.019017637 |
| 04/01/2021 | 0.741022229 | 0.955368221 | -0.214345992 |
| 05/01/2021 | 0.950028479 | 0.988468289 | -0.03843981 |
| 06/01/2021 | 0.890235841 | 1.078208327 | -0.187972486 |
| 07/01/2021 | 0.712183058 | 1.243554235 | -0.531371176 |
| 08/01/2021 | 1.566230536 | 1.381273866 | 0.18495667 |
| 09/01/2021 | 1.877442122 | 1.504657388 | 0.372784734 |
| 10/01/2021 | 2.046254873 | 1.654785037 | 0.391469836 |
| 11/01/2021 | 2.611690521 | 1.813055515 | 0.798635006 |
| 12/01/2021 | 2.620794773 | 1.986307263 | 0.63448751 |
| 01/01/2022 | 2.270985126 | 2.180222273 | 0.090762854 |
| 02/01/2022 | 2.71874404 | 2.476224184 | 0.242519855 |
| 03/01/2022 | 2.958187103 | 2.747962713 | 0.21022439 |
| 04/01/2022 | 3.479818821 | 3.105903387 | 0.373915434 |
| 05/01/2022 | 3.754940748 | 3.498333454 | 0.256607294 |
| 06/01/2022 | 3.726649761 | 3.799077511 | -0.07242775 |
| 07/01/2022 | 4.026022911 | 4.141080379 | -0.115057468 |
| 08/01/2022 | 4.297132015 | 4.480288029 | -0.183156013 |
| 09/01/2022 | 4.752104759 | 4.787474632 | -0.035369873 |
| 10/01/2022 | 5.017720699 | 5.149131775 | -0.131411076 |
Figure 2C (Right Figure) - United Kingdom
12-month inflation
| Period | Core Inflation | Common Component | Idiosyncratic Component |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2017 | 1.683988094 | 1.148720264 | 0.53526783 |
| 02/01/2017 | 2.013226032 | 1.367212176 | 0.646013856 |
| 03/01/2017 | 1.838190317 | 1.52345264 | 0.314737678 |
| 04/01/2017 | 2.502287626 | 1.648702383 | 0.853585243 |
| 05/01/2017 | 2.735787392 | 1.809807062 | 0.92598033 |
| 06/01/2017 | 2.599739075 | 1.869723797 | 0.730015278 |
| 07/01/2017 | 2.456163168 | 1.970091105 | 0.486072063 |
| 08/01/2017 | 2.781458855 | 2.026405811 | 0.755053043 |
| 09/01/2017 | 2.724526405 | 2.096033812 | 0.628492594 |
| 10/01/2017 | 2.694735289 | 2.193924904 | 0.500810385 |
| 11/01/2017 | 2.905966282 | 2.20091486 | 0.705051422 |
| 12/01/2017 | 2.555032492 | 2.196350336 | 0.358682156 |
| 01/01/2018 | 2.75003314 | 2.180426836 | 0.569606304 |
| 02/01/2018 | 2.592675686 | 2.119223595 | 0.473452091 |
| 03/01/2018 | 2.256508112 | 2.0651443 | 0.191363811 |
| 04/01/2018 | 2.159677982 | 2.057087183 | 0.102590799 |
| 05/01/2018 | 2.091988564 | 1.95796299 | 0.134025574 |
| 06/01/2018 | 1.858088613 | 1.940395355 | -0.082306743 |
| 07/01/2018 | 1.917912245 | 1.889332652 | 0.028579593 |
| 08/01/2018 | 2.005414724 | 1.85713613 | 0.148278594 |
| 09/01/2018 | 1.861665487 | 1.776866436 | 0.084799051 |
| 10/01/2018 | 1.853948712 | 1.673242211 | 0.180706501 |
| 11/01/2018 | 1.915475607 | 1.634899855 | 0.280575752 |
| 12/01/2018 | 1.88105154 | 1.624289274 | 0.256762266 |
| 01/01/2019 | 1.877255321 | 1.523679852 | 0.353575468 |
| 02/01/2019 | 1.860205054 | 1.526565194 | 0.33363986 |
| 03/01/2019 | 1.915455461 | 1.493755102 | 0.421700358 |
| 04/01/2019 | 1.754344821 | 1.478095889 | 0.276248932 |
| 05/01/2019 | 1.613620043 | 1.517146826 | 0.096473217 |
| 06/01/2019 | 1.761080503 | 1.523857236 | 0.237223268 |
| 07/01/2019 | 1.865311861 | 1.509245396 | 0.356066465 |
| 08/01/2019 | 1.561011314 | 1.516493917 | 0.044517398 |
| 09/01/2019 | 1.715095043 | 1.499001384 | 0.216093659 |
| 10/01/2019 | 1.745661855 | 1.460588217 | 0.285073638 |
| 11/01/2019 | 1.483443737 | 1.494106531 | -0.010662794 |
| 12/01/2019 | 1.223381758 | 1.440959096 | -0.217577338 |
| 01/01/2020 | 1.403674006 | 1.45457375 | -0.050899744 |
| 02/01/2020 | 1.378952384 | 1.437526226 | -0.058573842 |
| 03/01/2020 | 1.364267588 | 1.42828083 | -0.064013243 |
| 04/01/2020 | 1.364096284 | 1.301805258 | 0.062291026 |
| 05/01/2020 | 1.178345203 | 1.229257107 | -0.050911903 |
| 06/01/2020 | 1.422355056 | 1.210481286 | 0.21187377 |
| 07/01/2020 | 1.752158761 | 1.251151681 | 0.50100708 |
| 08/01/2020 | 1.373842597 | 1.12155056 | 0.252292037 |
| 09/01/2020 | 1.383029461 | 1.083685756 | 0.299343705 |
| 10/01/2020 | 1.599052787 | 1.080667138 | 0.518385649 |
| 11/01/2020 | 1.326222897 | 0.927722037 | 0.39850086 |
| 12/01/2020 | 1.627138257 | 0.927758753 | 0.699379504 |
| 01/01/2021 | 1.93499887 | 0.737056792 | 1.197942078 |
| 02/01/2021 | 1.369976163 | 0.773223698 | 0.596752465 |
| 03/01/2021 | 1.539545536 | 0.835271716 | 0.70427382 |
| 04/01/2021 | 1.602198124 | 1.101081014 | 0.50111711 |
| 05/01/2021 | 2.337733746 | 1.2403543 | 1.097379446 |
| 06/01/2021 | 2.578023195 | 1.422144175 | 1.155879021 |
| 07/01/2021 | 2.140853882 | 1.524632573 | 0.616221309 |
| 08/01/2021 | 2.769110441 | 1.828043461 | 0.94106698 |
| 09/01/2021 | 2.957149029 | 2.002396345 | 0.954752684 |
| 10/01/2021 | 3.303958178 | 2.375483513 | 0.928474665 |
| 11/01/2021 | 4.246040821 | 2.724721909 | 1.521318913 |
| 12/01/2021 | 4.502973557 | 3.023023605 | 1.479949951 |
| 01/01/2022 | 4.15480566 | 3.580667257 | 0.574138403 |
| 02/01/2022 | 5.000435829 | 3.931099653 | 1.069336176 |
| 03/01/2022 | 5.47271347 | 4.326639175 | 1.146074295 |
| 04/01/2022 | 5.415662289 | 4.894348621 | 0.521313667 |
| 05/01/2022 | 5.130576611 | 5.197038651 | -0.06646204 |
| 06/01/2022 | 5.05416584 | 5.440701008 | -0.386535168 |
| 07/01/2022 | 5.372536659 | 5.841098309 | -0.468561649 |
| 08/01/2022 | 5.423413277 | 6.007205486 | -0.58379221 |
| 09/01/2022 | 5.917240143 | 6.291916847 | -0.374676704 |
| 10/01/2022 | 5.689877987 | 6.619790077 | -0.92991209 |
Note: Common inflation is a measure of underlying inflationary pressures constructed using the methodology in Nir, Eli, Flora Haberkorn, and Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (2021). "International Measures of Common Inflation," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 05, 2021, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3012.
Source: Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Figure 3. Diffusion Index for 12-Month Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies
Figure 3A (Left Figure) - Canada
Weighted share of prices rising more than 3 percent
| Period | Headline | Core |
|---|---|---|
| 01/16/2017 | 33.05493927 | 36.68989182 |
| 02/16/2017 | 35.72147369 | 40.17352295 |
| 03/16/2017 | 25.6691494 | 25.92349243 |
| 04/16/2017 | 25.37734032 | 26.40988541 |
| 05/16/2017 | 21.29201126 | 20.9938221 |
| 06/16/2017 | 20.28577232 | 21.87458992 |
| 07/16/2017 | 20.63795471 | 18.77218437 |
| 08/16/2017 | 25.21634102 | 23.36006355 |
| 09/16/2017 | 21.77500534 | 19.77126312 |
| 10/16/2017 | 20.66814232 | 18.9167881 |
| 11/16/2017 | 31.75689316 | 29.07847977 |
| 12/16/2017 | 31.27389908 | 27.73760986 |
| 01/16/2018 | 25.00503159 | 18.10174751 |
| 02/16/2018 | 27.60112762 | 21.11213303 |
| 03/16/2018 | 25.02515602 | 19.07453728 |
| 04/16/2018 | 26.07164383 | 20.16563606 |
| 05/16/2018 | 24.62265968 | 20.07361603 |
| 06/16/2018 | 26.17226791 | 21.15157127 |
| 07/16/2018 | 31.75689316 | 25.13474464 |
| 08/16/2018 | 31.77701759 | 24.89812088 |
| 09/16/2018 | 32.34051132 | 25.91034508 |
| 10/16/2018 | 33.90018082 | 27.42211151 |
| 11/16/2018 | 29.37210655 | 25.94978333 |
| 12/16/2018 | 35.46991348 | 30.97147369 |
| 01/16/2019 | 28.63213348 | 25.39536095 |
| 02/16/2019 | 22.71347618 | 22.64101219 |
| 03/16/2019 | 22.81464958 | 20.62467003 |
| 04/16/2019 | 27.75192261 | 27.70163345 |
| 05/16/2019 | 37.50505829 | 39.74696732 |
| 06/16/2019 | 30.68595695 | 30.45598221 |
| 07/16/2019 | 28.12626457 | 26.84501839 |
| 08/16/2019 | 34.4394989 | 34.89720535 |
| 09/16/2019 | 34.6924324 | 34.7127037 |
| 10/16/2019 | 35.15782928 | 33.82973099 |
| 11/16/2019 | 31.91015816 | 31.66842461 |
| 12/16/2019 | 34.51031876 | 31.89246178 |
| 01/16/2020 | 28.24767303 | 24.01159668 |
| 02/16/2020 | 28.01497459 | 24.27517128 |
| 03/16/2020 | 20.85188103 | 21.04638863 |
| 04/16/2020 | 22.78429794 | 22.0084343 |
| 05/16/2020 | 23.50263023 | 22.23247147 |
| 06/16/2020 | 18.67664909 | 16.93463326 |
| 07/16/2020 | 22.89558792 | 23.55034256 |
| 08/16/2020 | 14.12383652 | 14.97100639 |
| 09/16/2020 | 13.65843773 | 14.14074898 |
| 10/16/2020 | 23.08781815 | 24.44649506 |
| 11/16/2020 | 22.64265442 | 24.9472847 |
| 12/16/2020 | 23.64427376 | 26.25197601 |
| 01/16/2021 | 20.52812576 | 23.04955101 |
| 02/16/2021 | 26.26466942 | 23.56352043 |
| 03/16/2021 | 35.62322998 | 35.33210373 |
| 04/16/2021 | 37.18130493 | 38.28413391 |
| 05/16/2021 | 43.85876083 | 45.09752274 |
| 06/16/2021 | 44.3994751 | 45.54925537 |
| 07/16/2021 | 47.31356812 | 47.51417542 |
| 08/16/2021 | 53.16199493 | 50.21759033 |
| 09/16/2021 | 50.21754456 | 46.39324951 |
| 10/16/2021 | 55.48922348 | 49.38678741 |
| 11/16/2021 | 60.03237915 | 51.97151566 |
| 12/16/2021 | 60.29545593 | 51.28577042 |
| 01/16/2022 | 69.20975494 | 61.3213768 |
| 02/16/2022 | 69.50318909 | 60.92575455 |
| 03/16/2022 | 67.84377289 | 59.13227081 |
| 04/16/2022 | 72.7309494 | 64.88197327 |
| 05/16/2022 | 77.39157104 | 70.57416534 |
| 06/16/2022 | 78.29347229 | 71.92982483 |
| 07/16/2022 | 77.9185257 | 74.08293152 |
| 08/16/2022 | 82.23551178 | 79.62519836 |
| 09/16/2022 | 82.69152832 | 80.31632233 |
| 10/16/2022 | 86.57276154 | 83.3997879 |
Note: Index constructed from 158 series for headline. 102 series for core.
Source: Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Figure 3B (Middle Figure) - Euro Area
Weighted share of prices rising more than 3 percent
| Period | Headline | Core |
|---|---|---|
| 01/16/2017 | 12.72200012 | 1.74946034 |
| 02/16/2017 | 10.69200039 | 2.701787472 |
| 03/16/2017 | 10.76200008 | 2.181181908 |
| 04/16/2017 | 18.31800079 | 8.144866943 |
| 05/16/2017 | 9.987999916 | 5.352784157 |
| 06/16/2017 | 8.895000458 | 7.153035641 |
| 07/16/2017 | 11.61499977 | 7.153035641 |
| 08/16/2017 | 15.7159996 | 7.153035641 |
| 09/16/2017 | 15.7159996 | 7.153035641 |
| 10/16/2017 | 16.95999908 | 4.644535065 |
| 11/16/2017 | 16.94799995 | 7.089547157 |
| 12/16/2017 | 12.28600025 | 1.946980119 |
| 01/16/2018 | 10.60299969 | 5.245595455 |
| 02/16/2018 | 8.845000267 | 2.759946823 |
| 03/16/2018 | 12.64299965 | 8.129966736 |
| 04/16/2018 | 13.31499958 | 1.685377359 |
| 05/16/2018 | 14.72900009 | 8.129966736 |
| 06/16/2018 | 13.60599995 | 5.490201473 |
| 07/16/2018 | 16.15200043 | 7.010151863 |
| 08/16/2018 | 20.58200073 | 7.010151863 |
| 09/16/2018 | 18.74699974 | 4.415632248 |
| 10/16/2018 | 17.4829998 | 4.234652042 |
| 11/16/2018 | 16.28899956 | 1.685377359 |
| 12/16/2018 | 12.18900013 | 1.640132308 |
| 01/16/2019 | 11.28199959 | 1.93003273 |
| 02/16/2019 | 11.24100018 | 1.872103572 |
| 03/16/2019 | 15.54199982 | 1.872103572 |
| 04/16/2019 | 19.61899948 | 7.882615566 |
| 05/16/2019 | 12.67199993 | 1.872103572 |
| 06/16/2019 | 12.30900002 | 4.673900604 |
| 07/16/2019 | 5.021999836 | 1.014468193 |
| 08/16/2019 | 5.629000187 | 1.872103572 |
| 09/16/2019 | 3.885999918 | 1.872103572 |
| 10/16/2019 | 7.06099987 | 2.147620678 |
| 11/16/2019 | 10.38000011 | 6.837063313 |
| 12/16/2019 | 9.927000046 | 6.197015762 |
| 01/16/2020 | 14.51029015 | 3.662333012 |
| 02/16/2020 | 9.443188667 | 3.662333012 |
| 03/16/2020 | 8.588171959 | 2.457988739 |
| 04/16/2020 | 11.33722687 | 2.514332294 |
| 05/16/2020 | 11.1732235 | 3.662333012 |
| 06/16/2020 | 9.82919693 | 4.206048489 |
| 07/16/2020 | 15.40130806 | 12.05470943 |
| 08/16/2020 | 9.688193321 | 4.007437229 |
| 09/16/2020 | 6.390127659 | 4.007437229 |
| 10/16/2020 | 8.185163498 | 4.098995686 |
| 11/16/2020 | 8.185163498 | 4.098995686 |
| 12/16/2020 | 6.455129147 | 4.098995686 |
| 01/16/2021 | 15.63415623 | 12.67400551 |
| 02/16/2021 | 8.04008007 | 7.99697113 |
| 03/16/2021 | 17.06317139 | 8.543013573 |
| 04/16/2021 | 18.22818184 | 9.648202896 |
| 05/16/2021 | 17.49217415 | 8.576503754 |
| 06/16/2021 | 17.56217575 | 7.985322475 |
| 07/16/2021 | 19.70119667 | 14.32669353 |
| 08/16/2021 | 32.02331924 | 29.41930199 |
| 09/16/2021 | 28.09428024 | 19.98806 |
| 10/16/2021 | 30.05130005 | 25.68728447 |
| 11/16/2021 | 28.12328148 | 26.3396244 |
| 12/16/2021 | 38.65038681 | 26.64977646 |
| 01/16/2022 | 48.46303177 | 34.44393921 |
| 02/16/2022 | 52.28395462 | 40.05225372 |
| 03/16/2022 | 56.3368721 | 45.04117203 |
| 04/16/2022 | 59.69980621 | 47.68460846 |
| 05/16/2022 | 63.72372437 | 50.92248917 |
| 06/16/2022 | 63.57372665 | 50.70232391 |
| 07/16/2022 | 64.01571655 | 51.35107422 |
| 08/16/2022 | 64.45171356 | 51.3745575 |
| 09/16/2022 | 69.95259857 | 59.44870758 |
| 10/16/2022 | 69.88460541 | 59.34889984 |
Note: Index constructed from 94 series for headline. 73 series for core.
Source: Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Figure 3C (Right Figure) - United Kingdom
Weighted share of prices rising more than 3 percent
| Period | Headline | Core |
|---|---|---|
| 01/16/2017 | 22.79999924 | 25.47425461 |
| 02/16/2017 | 25.29999924 | 28.88283348 |
| 03/16/2017 | 23.39999962 | 26.02179909 |
| 04/16/2017 | 33.90000153 | 37.05722046 |
| 05/16/2017 | 36.90000153 | 42.09809113 |
| 06/16/2017 | 38.20000076 | 40.59945679 |
| 07/16/2017 | 38 | 44.2779274 |
| 08/16/2017 | 36.70000076 | 41.82561493 |
| 09/16/2017 | 48.59999847 | 39.50953674 |
| 10/16/2017 | 56.09999847 | 46.45776749 |
| 11/16/2017 | 57.59999847 | 47.13896561 |
| 12/16/2017 | 54.70000076 | 44.95912933 |
| 01/16/2018 | 53 | 49.39271164 |
| 02/16/2018 | 43.20000076 | 40.67567444 |
| 03/16/2018 | 34.40000153 | 34.45946121 |
| 04/16/2018 | 35.29999924 | 37.16216278 |
| 05/16/2018 | 30.79999924 | 32.70270157 |
| 06/16/2018 | 32.90000153 | 33.37837982 |
| 07/16/2018 | 38 | 39.7297287 |
| 08/16/2018 | 39 | 39.59459305 |
| 09/16/2018 | 34.70000076 | 36.08108139 |
| 10/16/2018 | 34.90000153 | 34.86486435 |
| 11/16/2018 | 31.5 | 31.48648643 |
| 12/16/2018 | 34.29999924 | 33.78378296 |
| 01/16/2019 | 27.10000038 | 32.57065964 |
| 02/16/2019 | 30.10000038 | 33.73656082 |
| 03/16/2019 | 28.5 | 31.98924637 |
| 04/16/2019 | 32.79999924 | 31.85483932 |
| 05/16/2019 | 33.40000153 | 33.60214996 |
| 06/16/2019 | 29.89999962 | 32.93010712 |
| 07/16/2019 | 34.20000076 | 39.3817215 |
| 08/16/2019 | 24.10000038 | 25.13440895 |
| 09/16/2019 | 25.60000038 | 29.03225899 |
| 10/16/2019 | 23.60000038 | 27.95698929 |
| 11/16/2019 | 23.79999924 | 26.34408569 |
| 12/16/2019 | 19.39999962 | 22.44623566 |
| 01/16/2020 | 22.20000076 | 22.02702713 |
| 02/16/2020 | 27.60000038 | 32.24932098 |
| 03/16/2020 | 24.10000038 | 28.99728966 |
| 04/16/2020 | 27 | 23.71273804 |
| 05/16/2020 | 16.20000076 | 18.56368637 |
| 06/16/2020 | 18 | 22.76422691 |
| 07/16/2020 | 29 | 25.74525833 |
| 08/16/2020 | 21.29999924 | 27.64227676 |
| 09/16/2020 | 20 | 26.96476936 |
| 10/16/2020 | 16.10000038 | 20.59620667 |
| 11/16/2020 | 16.10000038 | 21.68021774 |
| 12/16/2020 | 16.29999924 | 21.95121956 |
| 01/16/2021 | 19 | 25.03311348 |
| 02/16/2021 | 19.89999962 | 26.12732124 |
| 03/16/2021 | 22.39999962 | 25.99469566 |
| 04/16/2021 | 24.10000038 | 25.59681702 |
| 05/16/2021 | 30.79999924 | 34.61538315 |
| 06/16/2021 | 35.59999847 | 40.84880447 |
| 07/16/2021 | 25.60000038 | 27.71883202 |
| 08/16/2021 | 35.79999924 | 30.76922989 |
| 09/16/2021 | 36 | 31.96286392 |
| 10/16/2021 | 45.79999924 | 41.64456177 |
| 11/16/2021 | 59.59999847 | 57.8249321 |
| 12/16/2021 | 64 | 56.36604691 |
| 01/16/2022 | 69 | 60.85165024 |
| 02/16/2022 | 71.90000153 | 61.29476547 |
| 03/16/2022 | 72.09999847 | 61.57024765 |
| 04/16/2022 | 75.69999695 | 66.52892303 |
| 05/16/2022 | 75.69999695 | 66.52892303 |
| 06/16/2022 | 84.69999695 | 78.92562103 |
| 07/16/2022 | 92.30000305 | 89.39393616 |
| 08/16/2022 | 87.69999695 | 83.0578537 |
| 09/16/2022 | 83.59999847 | 77.41046906 |
| 10/16/2022 | 90.09999847 | 86.36363983 |
Note: Index constructed from 85 series for headline. 67 series for core.
Source: Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Figure 4. Components of Core Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies
Figure 4A (Left Figure) - Canada
Annualized quarter-over-quarter growth
| Period | Housing | Other Services | Core Goods | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 Q1 | 0.453926676 | 1.49441337 | 0.139232763 | 1.948340046 |
| 2017 Q2 | 0.578030308 | 1.37085306 | -0.962930043 | 1.948883368 |
| 2017 Q3 | 0.687053173 | 0.147406518 | 0.460593353 | 0.834459692 |
| 2017 Q4 | 0.650775717 | 0.830382786 | 0.659233923 | 1.481158503 |
| 2018 Q1 | 0.649674741 | 2.189938861 | -0.280766445 | 2.839613601 |
| 2018 Q2 | 0.655556485 | 0.609915725 | -0.148400101 | 1.26547221 |
| 2018 Q3 | 0.789436095 | 1.922012184 | 0.026779781 | 2.711448279 |
| 2018 Q4 | 0.620644918 | 0.956872543 | 0.14872269 | 1.577517462 |
| 2019 Q1 | 1.159870193 | 0.119745326 | 0.775102986 | 1.279615518 |
| 2019 Q2 | 0.514960624 | 1.488815502 | 0.658723306 | 2.003776126 |
| 2019 Q3 | 0.683354379 | 1.432365332 | 0.018913444 | 2.11571971 |
| 2019 Q4 | 0.928067126 | -0.515472402 | 0.485977735 | 0.412594724 |
| 2020 Q1 | 0.712504172 | 0.554823828 | 0.367251084 | 1.267328 |
| 2020 Q2 | 0.242577446 | 0.412032291 | -1.370702623 | 0.654609737 |
| 2020 Q3 | 0.348404256 | -0.399444275 | 0.558563044 | -0.051040019 |
| 2020 Q4 | 0.98613206 | 1.293455256 | 0.573468597 | 2.279587316 |
| 2021 Q1 | 0.626267712 | 0.648774395 | 0.210137271 | 1.275042108 |
| 2021 Q2 | 1.932040213 | -0.073364217 | 1.835243595 | 1.858675996 |
| 2021 Q3 | 2.181733979 | 0.198128052 | 1.708955517 | 2.37986203 |
| 2021 Q4 | 1.266405898 | 1.756584007 | 0.701064319 | 3.022989905 |
| 2022 Q1 | 2.401044708 | 0.617129706 | 1.634867128 | 3.018174414 |
| 2022 Q2 | 3.057517797 | 1.872518992 | 2.849945928 | 4.930036789 |
| 2022 Q3 | 1.427068394 | 2.530284917 | 1.603789888 | 3.957353311 |
Source: Statistics Canada via Haver Analytics; staff calculations
Figure 4B (Middle Figure) - Euro Area
Annualized quarter-over-quarter growth
| Period | Housing | Other Services | Core Goods | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 Q1 | 0.124741789 | 0.517727569 | 0.226140651 | 0.642469358 |
| 2017 Q2 | 0.131725616 | 0.98876881 | 0.332291624 | 1.120494426 |
| 2017 Q3 | 0.132406754 | 0.70461564 | 0.365283063 | 0.837022395 |
| 2017 Q4 | 0.15026017 | -0.105969345 | 0.251363337 | 0.044290825 |
| 2018 Q1 | 0.154804107 | 0.798590536 | 0.079107691 | 0.953394644 |
| 2018 Q2 | 0.120079069 | 1.194405633 | 0.170253364 | 1.314484702 |
| 2018 Q3 | 0.099985885 | 0.960234229 | 0.297618067 | 1.060220115 |
| 2018 Q4 | 0.164081394 | -0.134627147 | 0.27573045 | 0.029454247 |
| 2019 Q1 | 0.172799416 | 0.486274984 | 0.118688149 | 0.6590744 |
| 2019 Q2 | 0.189470811 | 1.051465407 | 0.295032123 | 1.240936219 |
| 2019 Q3 | 0.188796283 | 0.923295436 | 0.167528077 | 1.112091719 |
| 2019 Q4 | 0.159098923 | 0.668276625 | 0.540511304 | 0.827375549 |
| 2020 Q1 | 0.144599463 | -0.188058766 | 0.074286516 | -0.043459302 |
| 2020 Q2 | 0.110595833 | 0.481005347 | 0.245792326 | 0.59160118 |
| 2020 Q3 | 0.147637213 | -0.195184152 | 0.300178669 | -0.047546939 |
| 2020 Q4 | 0.109035732 | 0.01331747 | -0.28450301 | 0.122353202 |
| 2021 Q1 | 0.201995543 | 0.975580292 | 2.362455318 | 1.177575835 |
| 2021 Q2 | 0.224290005 | -0.18098792 | 0.0462383 | 0.043302085 |
| 2021 Q3 | 0.20897149 | 0.664639654 | 1.679871652 | 0.873611144 |
| 2021 Q4 | 0.259961111 | 2.435709719 | 0.842037218 | 2.69567083 |
| 2022 Q1 | 0.316111182 | 0.901482822 | 3.209331822 | 1.217594004 |
| 2022 Q2 | 0.467761233 | 1.437507222 | 2.190038681 | 1.905268454 |
| 2022 Q3 | 0.465766076 | 1.935889808 | 3.036366575 | 2.401655883 |
Source: Eurostat via Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Figure 4C (Right Figure) - United Kingdom
Annualized quarter-over-quarter growth
| Period | Housing | Other Services | Core Goods | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 Q1 | 0.712178439 | 1.040560963 | 0.696946872 | 1.752739402 |
| 2017 Q2 | 0.46764824 | 1.59513551 | 1.068681465 | 2.06278375 |
| 2017 Q3 | 0.512424235 | 1.154697721 | 0.608874313 | 1.667121956 |
| 2017 Q4 | 0.334027424 | 0.821183024 | 0.694251778 | 1.155210447 |
| 2018 Q1 | 0.461465137 | 0.860585113 | 0.42536923 | 1.32205025 |
| 2018 Q2 | 0.546868598 | 0.939867158 | 0.422681704 | 1.486735756 |
| 2018 Q3 | 0.489026242 | 1.416669263 | -0.085259528 | 1.905695505 |
| 2018 Q4 | 0.457436011 | 0.85300252 | 0.339194022 | 1.310438531 |
| 2019 Q1 | 0.33522824 | 0.99816377 | 0.398960981 | 1.33339201 |
| 2019 Q2 | 0.684927311 | 1.117185252 | -0.162003047 | 1.802112563 |
| 2019 Q3 | 0.399299572 | 1.064634154 | 0.091281738 | 1.463933725 |
| 2019 Q4 | 0.51367358 | 0.874328416 | 0.122988174 | 1.388001995 |
| 2020 Q1 | 0.494720509 | 0.875119137 | 0.411689769 | 1.369839645 |
| 2020 Q2 | 0.380772561 | 0.455446475 | -0.011540339 | 0.836219036 |
| 2020 Q3 | 0.55662403 | 0.082750338 | 0.886947815 | 0.639374368 |
| 2020 Q4 | 0.526161608 | 0.745544512 | 0.049687842 | 1.271706119 |
| 2021 Q1 | 0.60509277 | 1.193815476 | -0.066871885 | 1.798908245 |
| 2021 Q2 | 0.733012126 | 0.602676368 | 1.843234365 | 1.335688494 |
| 2021 Q3 | 0.751761953 | 1.196729781 | 2.110567951 | 1.948491734 |
| 2021 Q4 | 1.065529687 | 1.916494682 | 2.132462813 | 2.982024369 |
| 2022 Q1 | 1.293472388 | 1.351117525 | 3.214129612 | 2.644589913 |
| 2022 Q2 | 1.39816857 | 2.696513484 | 2.06049221 | 4.094682055 |
| 2022 Q3 | 1.44742193 | 2.57001489 | 1.508925786 | 4.01743682 |
Source: Office for National Statistics via Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Figure 5. Labor Market Conditions in Selected Advanced Economies
Figure 5A (Left Figure) - Job Vacancies per Unemployed Person
Ratio
| Period | United Kingdom | Canada | Euro Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/1/2015 | 0.4 | 0.32 | 0.099850668 |
| 6/1/2015 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.103867899 |
| 9/1/2015 | 0.42 | 0.3 | 0.109656852 |
| 12/1/2015 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 0.113888765 |
| 3/1/2016 | 0.44 | 0.24 | 0.118359557 |
| 6/1/2016 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.126162621 |
| 9/1/2016 | 0.47 | 0.3 | 0.132646806 |
| 12/1/2016 | 0.47 | 0.28 | 0.138972759 |
| 3/1/2017 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.151992068 |
| 6/1/2017 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.164462689 |
| 9/1/2017 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.177271469 |
| 12/1/2017 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 0.182379353 |
| 3/1/2018 | 0.58 | 0.4 | 0.19608271 |
| 6/1/2018 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 0.209265238 |
| 9/1/2018 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.224553265 |
| 12/1/2018 | 0.61 | 0.48 | 0.23692079 |
| 3/1/2019 | 0.65 | 0.43 | 0.245579964 |
| 6/1/2019 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.252055127 |
| 9/1/2019 | 0.63 | 0.49 | 0.25460606 |
| 12/1/2019 | 0.6 | 0.43 | 0.249563453 |
| 3/1/2020 | 0.58 | 0.4 | 0.233160529 |
| 6/1/2020 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.173363403 |
| 9/1/2020 | 0.3 | 0.27 | 0.169814067 |
| 12/1/2020 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.18229012 |
| 3/1/2021 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.204599271 |
| 6/1/2021 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 0.23886897 |
| 9/1/2021 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.284657046 |
| 12/1/2021 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.327838371 |
| 3/1/2022 | 1.04 | 0.75 | 0.379861003 |
| 6/1/2022 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.419792271 |
| 9/1/2022 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Note: Canadian vacancies are imputed for 2020:Q2 and 2020:Q3. Data for the euro area exclude Italy, Estonia, and Malta.
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 5B (Right Figure) - Labor Force Participation Rate
2019:Q4 = 100
| Period | United Kingdom | Canada | Euro Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2017 | 99.2199688 | 100.3562341 | 99.65095986 |
| 6/30/2017 | 99.2199688 | 100.2544529 | 99.65095986 |
| 9/30/2017 | 98.90795632 | 100.0508906 | 99.82547993 |
| 12/31/2017 | 99.2199688 | 100.2035623 | 99.65095986 |
| 3/31/2018 | 99.53198128 | 99.74554707 | 99.82547993 |
| 6/30/2018 | 99.37597504 | 99.69465649 | 100 |
| 9/30/2018 | 99.37597504 | 99.54198473 | 99.82547993 |
| 12/31/2018 | 99.68798752 | 99.69465649 | 99.82547993 |
| 3/31/2019 | 99.68798752 | 100.2544529 | 100 |
| 6/30/2019 | 100 | 100.2035623 | 100.3490401 |
| 9/30/2019 | 99.53198128 | 100.1526718 | 99.82547993 |
| 12/31/2019 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 3/31/2020 | 100.3120125 | 99.08396947 | 99.65095986 |
| 6/30/2020 | 99.06396256 | 94.1475827 | 97.55671902 |
| 9/30/2020 | 99.06396256 | 98.67684478 | 98.95287958 |
| 12/31/2020 | 98.75195008 | 99.49109415 | 98.77835951 |
| 3/31/2021 | 98.59594384 | 99.08396947 | 98.2547993 |
| 6/30/2021 | 98.59594384 | 98.93129771 | 99.47643979 |
| 9/30/2021 | 98.75195008 | 99.59287532 | 99.82547993 |
| 12/31/2021 | 98.4399376 | 99.74554707 | 100 |
| 3/31/2022 | 98.28393136 | 99.6437659 | 100.3490401 |
| 6/30/2022 | 98.75195008 | 99.49109415 | 100.6980803 |
| 9/30/2022 | 98.12792512 | 98.82951654 | n/a |
| 10/31/2022 | n/a | 99.08396947 | n/a |
Note: Data extend through August for the United Kingdom and Canada and July for the euro area.
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 6. Historical Relationship between Compensation and Unemployment Rates In Selected Advanced Economies
Figure 6A (Left Figure) - Canada
Percent. y= 4-0.13x
| Period | Compensation Growth | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2005 | 3.894376731 | 6.966666667 |
| 6/30/2005 | 3.96340503 | 6.833333333 |
| 9/30/2005 | 4.163020924 | 6.7 |
| 12/31/2005 | 4.923160687 | 6.566666667 |
| 3/31/2006 | 5.073050164 | 6.466666667 |
| 6/30/2006 | 4.695461408 | 6.166666667 |
| 9/30/2006 | 4.83108999 | 6.4 |
| 12/31/2006 | 4.738490793 | 6.266666667 |
| 3/31/2007 | 4.591483228 | 6.233333333 |
| 6/30/2007 | 4.942918564 | 6.1 |
| 9/30/2007 | 3.525307415 | 5.933333333 |
| 12/31/2007 | 3.056129447 | 6.033333333 |
| 3/31/2008 | 3.401611535 | 6.033333333 |
| 6/30/2008 | 3.047994863 | 6.1 |
| 9/30/2008 | 3.452159801 | 6.1 |
| 12/31/2008 | 2.654353107 | 6.566666667 |
| 3/31/2009 | 1.373417017 | 7.866666667 |
| 6/30/2009 | 0.34183231 | 8.566666667 |
| 9/30/2009 | 0.100988227 | 8.566666667 |
| 12/31/2009 | 0.681619749 | 8.5 |
| 3/31/2010 | 0.892266661 | 8.3 |
| 6/30/2010 | 1.253076096 | 8.1 |
| 9/30/2010 | 2.059188923 | 8.1 |
| 12/31/2010 | 2.947604437 | 7.8 |
| 3/31/2011 | 3.958293385 | 7.733333333 |
| 6/30/2011 | 4.027899592 | 7.633333333 |
| 9/30/2011 | 3.672742025 | 7.333333333 |
| 12/31/2011 | 3.590602997 | 7.5 |
| 3/31/2012 | 3.319760905 | 7.5 |
| 6/30/2012 | 3.420862504 | 7.3 |
| 9/30/2012 | 3.859809865 | 7.3 |
| 12/31/2012 | 3.081728848 | 7.4 |
| 3/31/2013 | 2.964771729 | 7.166666667 |
| 6/30/2013 | 2.731874416 | 7.133333333 |
| 9/30/2013 | 2.489125209 | 7.1 |
| 12/31/2013 | 3.154470658 | 7.133333333 |
| 3/31/2014 | 2.91114246 | 7.066666667 |
| 6/30/2014 | 3.72485654 | 7.1 |
| 9/30/2014 | 3.903399021 | 7 |
| 12/31/2014 | 2.834521633 | 6.7 |
| 3/31/2015 | 3.162110004 | 6.8 |
| 6/30/2015 | 2.538218155 | 6.9 |
| 9/30/2015 | 1.349104864 | 7 |
| 12/31/2015 | 1.406017992 | 7.066666667 |
| 3/31/2016 | -0.516523991 | 7.2 |
| 6/30/2016 | -1.037014151 | 7.033333333 |
| 9/30/2016 | -0.673352936 | 7 |
| 12/31/2016 | -0.566080744 | 6.966666667 |
| 3/31/2017 | 0.749850693 | 6.7 |
| 6/30/2017 | 1.538355983 | 6.533333333 |
| 9/30/2017 | 2.778291757 | 6.233333333 |
| 12/31/2017 | 3.430035516 | 6.066666667 |
| 3/31/2018 | 4.599227288 | 5.933333333 |
| 6/30/2018 | 4.262851034 | 6 |
| 9/30/2018 | 3.222133216 | 5.9 |
| 12/31/2018 | 2.816305058 | 5.8 |
| 3/31/2019 | 1.26830849 | 5.866666667 |
| 6/30/2019 | 1.482597375 | 5.566666667 |
| 9/30/2019 | 2.229263993 | 5.733333333 |
| 12/31/2019 | 2.993122615 | 5.833333333 |
| 3/31/2020 | 3.249639637 | 6.4 |
| 6/30/2020 | 6.24646434 | 12.86666667 |
| 9/30/2020 | 4.269284388 | 10.13333333 |
| 12/31/2020 | 3.206758342 | 8.933333333 |
| 3/31/2021 | 5.086876399 | 8.4 |
| 6/30/2021 | 2.632417745 | 7.866666667 |
| 9/30/2021 | 4.689808456 | 7.166666667 |
| 12/31/2021 | 4.732828658 | 6.3 |
| 3/31/2022 | 5.600857786 | 5.766666667 |
| 6/30/2022 | 5.41037063 | 5.066666667 |
| 9/30/2022 | 5.778291648 | 5.166666667 |
Figure 6B (Middle Figure) - Euro Area
Percent. y = 4.9-0.31 X
| Period | Compensation Growth | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2005 | 2 | 9.233333333 |
| 6/30/2005 | 1.887729757 | 9.3 |
| 9/30/2005 | 2.091584158 | 9.133333333 |
| 12/31/2005 | 2.463357556 | 9.066666667 |
| 3/31/2006 | 2.340686275 | 8.866666667 |
| 6/30/2006 | 2.401267674 | 8.6 |
| 9/30/2006 | 2.497272397 | 8.333333333 |
| 12/31/2006 | 2.223824979 | 8.1 |
| 3/31/2007 | 2.38294815 | 7.9 |
| 6/30/2007 | 2.356862278 | 7.633333333 |
| 9/30/2007 | 2.389118865 | 7.533333333 |
| 12/31/2007 | 2.916274694 | 7.4 |
| 3/31/2008 | 3.461988304 | 7.366666667 |
| 6/30/2008 | 3.430631469 | 7.5 |
| 9/30/2008 | 3.70798198 | 7.666666667 |
| 12/31/2008 | 2.890767824 | 8.133333333 |
| 3/31/2009 | 1.718290753 | 9.1 |
| 6/30/2009 | 1.63031257 | 9.6 |
| 9/30/2009 | 1.336600579 | 9.866666667 |
| 12/31/2009 | 1.721265963 | 10.13333333 |
| 3/31/2010 | 2.111580351 | 10.26666667 |
| 6/30/2010 | 2.400708043 | 10.3 |
| 9/30/2010 | 2.044405364 | 10.2 |
| 12/31/2010 | 1.768558952 | 10.2 |
| 3/31/2011 | 2.220287331 | 10.1 |
| 6/30/2011 | 1.923076923 | 10.06666667 |
| 9/30/2011 | 1.884963378 | 10.3 |
| 12/31/2011 | 1.984552671 | 10.66666667 |
| 3/31/2012 | 1.597103918 | 11 |
| 6/30/2012 | 1.515793937 | 11.33333333 |
| 9/30/2012 | 1.564647426 | 11.56666667 |
| 12/31/2012 | 1.283264963 | 11.9 |
| 3/31/2013 | 1.404317753 | 12.2 |
| 6/30/2013 | 1.461835648 | 12.13333333 |
| 9/30/2013 | 1.602997814 | 12.03333333 |
| 12/31/2013 | 1.557794163 | 11.96666667 |
| 3/31/2014 | 1.488218272 | 11.96666667 |
| 6/30/2014 | 1.234949058 | 11.7 |
| 9/30/2014 | 1.157668272 | 11.53333333 |
| 12/31/2014 | 1.349831271 | 11.53333333 |
| 3/31/2015 | 1.293279022 | 11.3 |
| 6/30/2015 | 1.585849344 | 11.06666667 |
| 9/30/2015 | 1.377354669 | 10.73333333 |
| 12/31/2015 | 1.402482091 | 10.6 |
| 3/31/2016 | 1.316979994 | 10.36666667 |
| 6/30/2016 | 1.010707495 | 10.2 |
| 9/30/2016 | 1.238761239 | 9.933333333 |
| 12/31/2016 | 1.333333333 | 9.8 |
| 3/31/2017 | 1.567771383 | 9.533333333 |
| 6/30/2017 | 1.753516941 | 9.2 |
| 9/30/2017 | 1.736727847 | 9 |
| 12/31/2017 | 1.983503535 | 8.733333333 |
| 3/31/2018 | 1.80734662 | 8.6 |
| 6/30/2018 | 2.09327232 | 8.3 |
| 9/30/2018 | 2.386032978 | 8.033333333 |
| 12/31/2018 | 2.176006162 | 7.966666667 |
| 3/31/2019 | 2.370213991 | 7.8 |
| 6/30/2019 | 2.326912073 | 7.666666667 |
| 9/30/2019 | 2.207275483 | 7.466666667 |
| 12/31/2019 | 1.846965699 | 7.5 |
| 3/31/2020 | 0.693663292 | 7.366666667 |
| 6/30/2020 | -4.035414725 | 7.7 |
| 9/30/2020 | 1.038094355 | 8.533333333 |
| 12/31/2020 | 1.18430792 | 8.266666667 |
| 3/31/2021 | 2.020107987 | 8.233333333 |
| 6/30/2021 | 7.021462562 | 8.066666667 |
| 9/30/2021 | 3.146500321 | 7.5 |
| 12/31/2021 | 3.52962692 | 7.133333333 |
| 3/31/2022 | 4.343461995 | 6.833333333 |
| 6/30/2022 | 4.45553539 | 6.7 |
| 9/30/2022 | 6.666666667 |
Figure 6C (Right Figure) - United Kingdom
Percent. y=6.4-0.63x
| Period | Compensation Growth | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2005 | 5.260131165 | 4.733333333 |
| 6/30/2005 | 5.106791242 | 4.736333333 |
| 9/30/2005 | 4.529348027 | 4.705666667 |
| 12/31/2005 | 3.778762744 | 5.044333333 |
| 3/31/2006 | 4.66329565 | 5.167333333 |
| 6/30/2006 | 4.038985439 | 5.401333333 |
| 9/30/2006 | 4.135093456 | 5.485666667 |
| 12/31/2006 | 6.326392393 | 5.465666667 |
| 3/31/2007 | 6.123673743 | 5.518 |
| 6/30/2007 | 6.553690098 | 5.403666667 |
| 9/30/2007 | 7.010405322 | 5.306 |
| 12/31/2007 | 3.761433043 | 5.211666667 |
| 3/31/2008 | 3.027501197 | 5.180333333 |
| 6/30/2008 | 1.550571514 | 5.281 |
| 9/30/2008 | -0.327958526 | 5.684 |
| 12/31/2008 | -0.256515623 | 6.161333333 |
| 3/31/2009 | -2.654630086 | 6.775666667 |
| 6/30/2009 | 0.731813744 | 7.542666667 |
| 9/30/2009 | 0.731657755 | 7.861666667 |
| 12/31/2009 | 2.684330143 | 7.807333333 |
| 3/31/2010 | 4.680872286 | 7.886333333 |
| 6/30/2010 | 1.989837301 | 7.909 |
| 9/30/2010 | 2.260745221 | 7.785666667 |
| 12/31/2010 | 1.193640047 | 7.877 |
| 3/31/2011 | 2.025477081 | 7.83 |
| 6/30/2011 | 1.67152214 | 7.826333333 |
| 9/30/2011 | 1.729506322 | 8.175666667 |
| 12/31/2011 | 1.181562157 | 8.411 |
| 3/31/2012 | 0.136713068 | 8.283666667 |
| 6/30/2012 | 0.642417023 | 8.082 |
| 9/30/2012 | 1.05180814 | 7.929333333 |
| 12/31/2012 | 0.92718988 | 7.828666667 |
| 3/31/2013 | 0.613692995 | 7.881 |
| 6/30/2013 | 3.867097516 | 7.766 |
| 9/30/2013 | 3.217480902 | 7.662333333 |
| 12/31/2013 | 3.828745186 | 7.253333333 |
| 3/31/2014 | 3.13803107 | 6.935333333 |
| 6/30/2014 | -0.651482128 | 6.435 |
| 9/30/2014 | -1.147385056 | 6.047666667 |
| 12/31/2014 | -0.818463431 | 5.841666667 |
| 3/31/2015 | -0.01615217 | 5.591333333 |
| 6/30/2015 | 1.800277438 | 5.576666667 |
| 9/30/2015 | 2.878264167 | 5.41 |
| 12/31/2015 | 2.064733658 | 5.111333333 |
| 3/31/2016 | 2.00510468 | 5.084333333 |
| 6/30/2016 | 2.382611813 | 4.955666667 |
| 9/30/2016 | 2.541851021 | 4.905333333 |
| 12/31/2016 | 2.61913737 | 4.788333333 |
| 3/31/2017 | 2.846554027 | 4.636666667 |
| 6/30/2017 | 2.787936855 | 4.47 |
| 9/30/2017 | 2.712481025 | 4.311 |
| 12/31/2017 | 3.157179772 | 4.289 |
| 3/31/2018 | 3.623922142 | 4.239 |
| 6/30/2018 | 2.179591333 | 4.130333333 |
| 9/30/2018 | 3.324306519 | 4.043 |
| 12/31/2018 | 3.88237777 | 4.036 |
| 3/31/2019 | 3.455289953 | 3.897 |
| 6/30/2019 | 5.046024432 | 3.839666667 |
| 9/30/2019 | 3.718276162 | 3.831 |
| 12/31/2019 | 1.73986998 | 3.781666667 |
| 3/31/2020 | 1.414562356 | 3.959 |
| 6/30/2020 | -1.818850945 | 4.095 |
| 9/30/2020 | 0.813524671 | 4.590333333 |
| 12/31/2020 | 4.958137885 | 5.137333333 |
| 3/31/2021 | 4.45207584 | 5.050666667 |
| 6/30/2021 | 8.662369173 | 4.824666667 |
| 9/30/2021 | 6.333976907 | 4.43 |
| 12/31/2021 | 4.935071898 | 4.100666667 |
| 3/31/2022 | 7.054547517 | 3.84 |
| 6/30/2022 | 5.600013192 | 3.793666667 |
| 9/30/2022 | 5.960989233 | 3.569333333 |
Note: Unemployment is averaged quarterly. Compensation is 4-quarter growth. Points represent a sample period from 2005:Q1 through 2022:Q2 for the euro area and through 2022:Q3 for Canada and the United Kingdom.
Source: Haver Analytics; staff calculations.
Last Update:
January 13, 2023