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Examining the Sensitivity of Regional Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Geographical Distribution of Deposits for Regional Banks (2025)
Figure 1 presents a map of the United States showing the distribution of regional banks’ deposits by state, measured as a share of total regional bank deposits (%). The map uses a color gradient from white to dark blue, with darker shades indicating higher concentrations of regional bank deposits. A scale bar at the bottom ranges from 0 to 8+ percent.
The map shows that regional bank deposits are not geographically concentrated in any single state or set of states. States with the highest share of total regional bank deposits, such as Arizona (9 percent of total regional bank deposits), Georgia and Alabama (about 7 percent each), Texas (6 percent), Virgina, Pennsylvania, and Illinois (about 5 percent each ), and Missouri and Utah (about 4 percent each) are shaded darker blue and are labeled to indicate their higher share of total regional bank deposits.
Note: Share of Total (%) is the share of regional bank deposits in each state. Includes banks with assets between $10 billion to $100 billion as of 2025Q2. Excludes select intermediate holding companies.
Source: FDIC Summary of Deposits.
Figure 2. PPNR Projections Comparison for Regional Banks under Own vs. All Bank Coefficients, 2024 Severely Adverse
Figure 2 is line graph showing pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) ratios for regional banks under the 2024 severely adverse scenario using two separate models. The solid black line shows projections using 'All Banks' model coefficients, while the dashed red line represents projections using 'Regional Banks' model coefficients. Actuals span 2001:Q1 to 2023:Q4, and projections are shown from 2024:Q1 to 2026:Q1.
PPNR projections using the ‘Regional Banks’ model are substantially higher at about 2 percent on average over the projection horizon, relative to projections using the ‘All Banks’ model which stay closer to 1.5 percent during this same period.
Note: Asset-weighted averages of regional banks. Solid black: using ‘All Banks’ model coefficients. Dashed red: using ‘Regional Banks’ model coefficients.
Source: FR Y-9C, Call Reports, Federal Reserve, Annual Stress Test Scenarios, and staff calculations.
Figure 3. NCO Rate Projections Comparison for Regional Banks under Own vs. All Bank Coefficients, 2024 Severely Adverse
Figure 3 is line graph showing the net charge-off (NCO) rates for regional banks under the 2024 severely adverse scenario using two separate models. The solid black line represents projections using coefficients from the 'All Banks' model, while the dashed red line shows projections using the 'Regional Banks' model coefficients. Actuals span 2001:Q1 to 2023:Q4, and projections are shown from 2024:Q1 to 2026:Q1.
NCO rate projections using the 'All Banks' model increase from about 0.7 percent in 2024:Q1 and reach 2.5 percent by the end of the period in 2026Q1, while projections using the ‘Regional Banks’ model have a similar contour but peak at a lower level of about 2.3 percent.
Note: Asset-weighted averages of regional banks. Solid black: using ‘All Banks’ model coefficients. Dashed red: using ‘Regional Banks’ model coefficients.
Source: FR Y-9C, Call Reports, Federal Reserve, Annual Stress Test Scenarios, and staff calculations.
Figure 4. CET1 Ratio Projections Comparison for Regional Banks under Own vs. All Bank Coefficients, 2024 Severely Adverse
Figure 4 is line graph showing Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios for regional banks under the 2024 severely adverse scenario using two separate models. The solid black line shows projections using 'All Banks' model coefficients, while the dashed red line represents projections using 'Regional Banks' model coefficients. Actuals span 2000:Q1 to 2023:Q4, and projections are shown from 2024:Q1 to 2026:Q1
At the jump-off point of 2023:Q4, the average CET1 ratio is approximately 13.0 percent. In the 'All Banks' model projection, the ratio declines to about 10.4 percent by 2026:Q1. In the 'Regional Banks' model projection, the ratio also declines but follows a more gradual path, reaching a minimum of approximately 11.2 percent.
Note: Asset-weighted averages of regional banks. Solid black: using ‘All Banks’ model coefficients. Dashed red: using ‘Regional Banks’ model coefficients.
Source: FR Y-9C, Call Reports, FR Y-14, Schedule B, Federal Reserve, Annual Stress Test Scenarios, and staff calculations.