Accessible Version
Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk, Accessible Data
Figure 1: Unemployment Rate, 1965Q1 to 2022Q1
Percent
| Date | Unemployment rate | Recession indicator (=1 during a recession) |
|---|---|---|
| 1965Q1 | 4.9 | 0 |
| 1965Q2 | 4.666667 | 0 |
| 1965Q3 | 4.366667 | 0 |
| 1965Q4 | 4.1 | 0 |
| 1966Q1 | 3.866667 | 0 |
| 1966Q2 | 3.833333 | 0 |
| 1966Q3 | 3.766667 | 0 |
| 1966Q4 | 3.7 | 0 |
| 1967Q1 | 3.833333 | 0 |
| 1967Q2 | 3.833333 | 0 |
| 1967Q3 | 3.8 | 0 |
| 1967Q4 | 3.9 | 0 |
| 1968Q1 | 3.733333 | 0 |
| 1968Q2 | 3.566667 | 0 |
| 1968Q3 | 3.533333 | 0 |
| 1968Q4 | 3.4 | 0 |
| 1969Q1 | 3.4 | 0 |
| 1969Q2 | 3.433333 | 0 |
| 1969Q3 | 3.566667 | 0 |
| 1969Q4 | 3.566667 | 1 |
| 1970Q1 | 4.166667 | 1 |
| 1970Q2 | 4.766667 | 1 |
| 1970Q3 | 5.166667 | 1 |
| 1970Q4 | 5.833333 | 1 |
| 1971Q1 | 5.933333 | 0 |
| 1971Q2 | 5.9 | 0 |
| 1971Q3 | 6.033333 | 0 |
| 1971Q4 | 5.933333 | 0 |
| 1972Q1 | 5.766667 | 0 |
| 1972Q2 | 5.7 | 0 |
| 1972Q3 | 5.566667 | 0 |
| 1972Q4 | 5.366667 | 0 |
| 1973Q1 | 4.933333 | 0 |
| 1973Q2 | 4.933333 | 0 |
| 1973Q3 | 4.8 | 0 |
| 1973Q4 | 4.766667 | 1 |
| 1974Q1 | 5.133333 | 1 |
| 1974Q2 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 1974Q3 | 5.633333 | 1 |
| 1974Q4 | 6.6 | 1 |
| 1975Q1 | 8.266667 | 1 |
| 1975Q2 | 8.866667 | 0 |
| 1975Q3 | 8.466667 | 0 |
| 1975Q4 | 8.3 | 0 |
| 1976Q1 | 7.733333 | 0 |
| 1976Q2 | 7.566667 | 0 |
| 1976Q3 | 7.733333 | 0 |
| 1976Q4 | 7.766667 | 0 |
| 1977Q1 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 1977Q2 | 7.133333 | 0 |
| 1977Q3 | 6.9 | 0 |
| 1977Q4 | 6.666667 | 0 |
| 1978Q1 | 6.333333 | 0 |
| 1978Q2 | 6 | 0 |
| 1978Q3 | 6.033333 | 0 |
| 1978Q4 | 5.9 | 0 |
| 1979Q1 | 5.866667 | 0 |
| 1979Q2 | 5.7 | 0 |
| 1979Q3 | 5.866667 | 0 |
| 1979Q4 | 5.966667 | 0 |
| 1980Q1 | 6.3 | 1 |
| 1980Q2 | 7.333333 | 1 |
| 1980Q3 | 7.666667 | 1 |
| 1980Q4 | 7.4 | 0 |
| 1981Q1 | 7.433333 | 0 |
| 1981Q2 | 7.4 | 0 |
| 1981Q3 | 7.4 | 1 |
| 1981Q4 | 8.233333 | 1 |
| 1982Q1 | 8.833333 | 1 |
| 1982Q2 | 9.433333 | 1 |
| 1982Q3 | 9.9 | 1 |
| 1982Q4 | 10.66667 | 1 |
| 1983Q1 | 10.36667 | 0 |
| 1983Q2 | 10.13333 | 0 |
| 1983Q3 | 9.366667 | 0 |
| 1983Q4 | 8.533333 | 0 |
| 1984Q1 | 7.866667 | 0 |
| 1984Q2 | 7.433333 | 0 |
| 1984Q3 | 7.433333 | 0 |
| 1984Q4 | 7.3 | 0 |
| 1985Q1 | 7.233333 | 0 |
| 1985Q2 | 7.3 | 0 |
| 1985Q3 | 7.2 | 0 |
| 1985Q4 | 7.033333 | 0 |
| 1986Q1 | 7.033333 | 0 |
| 1986Q2 | 7.166667 | 0 |
| 1986Q3 | 6.966667 | 0 |
| 1986Q4 | 6.833333 | 0 |
| 1987Q1 | 6.6 | 0 |
| 1987Q2 | 6.266667 | 0 |
| 1987Q3 | 6 | 0 |
| 1987Q4 | 5.833333 | 0 |
| 1988Q1 | 5.7 | 0 |
| 1988Q2 | 5.466667 | 0 |
| 1988Q3 | 5.466667 | 0 |
| 1988Q4 | 5.333333 | 0 |
| 1989Q1 | 5.2 | 0 |
| 1989Q2 | 5.233333 | 0 |
| 1989Q3 | 5.233333 | 0 |
| 1989Q4 | 5.366667 | 0 |
| 1990Q1 | 5.3 | 0 |
| 1990Q2 | 5.333333 | 0 |
| 1990Q3 | 5.7 | 1 |
| 1990Q4 | 6.133333 | 1 |
| 1991Q1 | 6.6 | 1 |
| 1991Q2 | 6.833333 | 0 |
| 1991Q3 | 6.866667 | 0 |
| 1991Q4 | 7.1 | 0 |
| 1992Q1 | 7.366667 | 0 |
| 1992Q2 | 7.6 | 0 |
| 1992Q3 | 7.633333 | 0 |
| 1992Q4 | 7.366667 | 0 |
| 1993Q1 | 7.133333 | 0 |
| 1993Q2 | 7.066667 | 0 |
| 1993Q3 | 6.8 | 0 |
| 1993Q4 | 6.633333 | 0 |
| 1994Q1 | 6.566667 | 0 |
| 1994Q2 | 6.2 | 0 |
| 1994Q3 | 6 | 0 |
| 1994Q4 | 5.633333 | 0 |
| 1995Q1 | 5.466667 | 0 |
| 1995Q2 | 5.666667 | 0 |
| 1995Q3 | 5.666667 | 0 |
| 1995Q4 | 5.566667 | 0 |
| 1996Q1 | 5.533333 | 0 |
| 1996Q2 | 5.5 | 0 |
| 1996Q3 | 5.266667 | 0 |
| 1996Q4 | 5.333333 | 0 |
| 1997Q1 | 5.233333 | 0 |
| 1997Q2 | 5 | 0 |
| 1997Q3 | 4.866667 | 0 |
| 1997Q4 | 4.666667 | 0 |
| 1998Q1 | 4.633333 | 0 |
| 1998Q2 | 4.4 | 0 |
| 1998Q3 | 4.533333 | 0 |
| 1998Q4 | 4.433333 | 0 |
| 1999Q1 | 4.3 | 0 |
| 1999Q2 | 4.266667 | 0 |
| 1999Q3 | 4.233333 | 0 |
| 1999Q4 | 4.066667 | 0 |
| 2000Q1 | 4.033333 | 0 |
| 2000Q2 | 3.933333 | 0 |
| 2000Q3 | 4 | 0 |
| 2000Q4 | 3.9 | 0 |
| 2001Q1 | 4.233333 | 1 |
| 2001Q2 | 4.4 | 1 |
| 2001Q3 | 4.833333 | 1 |
| 2001Q4 | 5.5 | 1 |
| 2002Q1 | 5.7 | 0 |
| 2002Q2 | 5.833333 | 0 |
| 2002Q3 | 5.733333 | 0 |
| 2002Q4 | 5.866667 | 0 |
| 2003Q1 | 5.866667 | 0 |
| 2003Q2 | 6.133333 | 0 |
| 2003Q3 | 6.133333 | 0 |
| 2003Q4 | 5.833333 | 0 |
| 2004Q1 | 5.7 | 0 |
| 2004Q2 | 5.6 | 0 |
| 2004Q3 | 5.433333 | 0 |
| 2004Q4 | 5.433333 | 0 |
| 2005Q1 | 5.3 | 0 |
| 2005Q2 | 5.1 | 0 |
| 2005Q3 | 4.966667 | 0 |
| 2005Q4 | 4.966667 | 0 |
| 2006Q1 | 4.733333 | 0 |
| 2006Q2 | 4.633333 | 0 |
| 2006Q3 | 4.633333 | 0 |
| 2006Q4 | 4.433333 | 0 |
| 2007Q1 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2007Q2 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2007Q3 | 4.666667 | 0 |
| 2007Q4 | 4.8 | 1 |
| 2008Q1 | 5 | 1 |
| 2008Q2 | 5.333333 | 1 |
| 2008Q3 | 6 | 1 |
| 2008Q4 | 6.866667 | 1 |
| 2009Q1 | 8.266667 | 1 |
| 2009Q2 | 9.3 | 1 |
| 2009Q3 | 9.633333 | 0 |
| 2009Q4 | 9.933333 | 0 |
| 2010Q1 | 9.833333 | 0 |
| 2010Q2 | 9.633333 | 0 |
| 2010Q3 | 9.466667 | 0 |
| 2010Q4 | 9.5 | 0 |
| 2011Q1 | 9.033333 | 0 |
| 2011Q2 | 9.066667 | 0 |
| 2011Q3 | 9 | 0 |
| 2011Q4 | 8.633333 | 0 |
| 2012Q1 | 8.266667 | 0 |
| 2012Q2 | 8.2 | 0 |
| 2012Q3 | 8.033333 | 0 |
| 2012Q4 | 7.8 | 0 |
| 2013Q1 | 7.733333 | 0 |
| 2013Q2 | 7.533333 | 0 |
| 2013Q3 | 7.233333 | 0 |
| 2013Q4 | 6.933333 | 0 |
| 2014Q1 | 6.666667 | 0 |
| 2014Q2 | 6.2 | 0 |
| 2014Q3 | 6.066667 | 0 |
| 2014Q4 | 5.7 | 0 |
| 2015Q1 | 5.533333 | 0 |
| 2015Q2 | 5.433333 | 0 |
| 2015Q3 | 5.1 | 0 |
| 2015Q4 | 5.033333 | 0 |
| 2016Q1 | 4.9 | 0 |
| 2016Q2 | 4.933333 | 0 |
| 2016Q3 | 4.9 | 0 |
| 2016Q4 | 4.766667 | 0 |
| 2017Q1 | 4.566667 | 0 |
| 2017Q2 | 4.366667 | 0 |
| 2017Q3 | 4.333333 | 0 |
| 2017Q4 | 4.166667 | 0 |
| 2018Q1 | 4.033333 | 0 |
| 2018Q2 | 3.933333 | 0 |
| 2018Q3 | 3.766667 | 0 |
| 2018Q4 | 3.833333 | 0 |
| 2019Q1 | 3.866667 | 0 |
| 2019Q2 | 3.6 | 0 |
| 2019Q3 | 3.633333 | 0 |
| 2019Q4 | 3.6 | 0 |
| 2020Q1 | 3.8 | 0 |
| 2020Q2 | 12.96667 | 0 |
| 2020Q3 | 8.833333 | 0 |
| 2020Q4 | 6.766667 | 0 |
| 2021Q1 | 6.2 | 0 |
| 2021Q2 | 5.9 | 0 |
| 2021Q3 | 5.1 | 0 |
| 2021Q4 | 4.233333 | 0 |
| 2022Q1 | 3.8 | 0 |
Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969–November 1970, November 1973–March 1975, January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Bureau of Economic Research.
Figure 2: Recession probability (next four quarters) from financial model
| Date | Probability of change in unemployment rate above its 80th percentile over next four quarters from financial model | Change in unemployment rate over four quarters above its unconditional 80th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1965Q1 | 0.051731 | 0 |
| 1965Q2 | 0.060917 | 0 |
| 1965Q3 | 0.059815 | 0 |
| 1965Q4 | 0.041474 | 0 |
| 1966Q1 | 0.041626 | 0 |
| 1966Q2 | 0.095282 | 0 |
| 1966Q3 | 0.114342 | 0 |
| 1966Q4 | 0.25003 | 0 |
| 1967Q1 | 0.210167 | 0 |
| 1967Q2 | 0.048048 | 0 |
| 1967Q3 | 0.02203 | 0 |
| 1967Q4 | 0.018803 | 0 |
| 1968Q1 | 0.052984 | 0 |
| 1968Q2 | 0.205099 | 0 |
| 1968Q3 | 0.299731 | 0 |
| 1968Q4 | 0.181474 | 0 |
| 1969Q1 | 0.22391 | 0 |
| 1969Q2 | 0.722535 | 0 |
| 1969Q3 | 0.719815 | 0 |
| 1969Q4 | 0.570692 | 0 |
| 1970Q1 | 0.526623 | 1 |
| 1970Q2 | 0.188527 | 1 |
| 1970Q3 | 0.138696 | 1 |
| 1970Q4 | 0.127195 | 1 |
| 1971Q1 | 0.047869 | 1 |
| 1971Q2 | 0.071429 | 1 |
| 1971Q3 | 0.139052 | 1 |
| 1971Q4 | 0.167899 | 0 |
| 1972Q1 | 0.020382 | 0 |
| 1972Q2 | 0.041188 | 0 |
| 1972Q3 | 0.047245 | 0 |
| 1972Q4 | 0.051592 | 0 |
| 1973Q1 | 0.160036 | 0 |
| 1973Q2 | 0.428184 | 0 |
| 1973Q3 | 0.946399 | 0 |
| 1973Q4 | 0.964103 | 0 |
| 1974Q1 | 0.846055 | 0 |
| 1974Q2 | 0.97625 | 0 |
| 1974Q3 | 0.991204 | 1 |
| 1974Q4 | 0.939702 | 1 |
| 1975Q1 | 0.274302 | 1 |
| 1975Q2 | 0.027323 | 1 |
| 1975Q3 | 0.036495 | 1 |
| 1975Q4 | 0.02459 | 1 |
| 1976Q1 | 0.016657 | 0 |
| 1976Q2 | 0.016336 | 0 |
| 1976Q3 | 0.014335 | 0 |
| 1976Q4 | 0.020679 | 0 |
| 1977Q1 | 0.008572 | 0 |
| 1977Q2 | 0.014071 | 0 |
| 1977Q3 | 0.028387 | 0 |
| 1977Q4 | 0.044085 | 0 |
| 1978Q1 | 0.02885 | 0 |
| 1978Q2 | 0.036311 | 0 |
| 1978Q3 | 0.071537 | 0 |
| 1978Q4 | 0.261139 | 0 |
| 1979Q1 | 0.341448 | 0 |
| 1979Q2 | 0.445036 | 0 |
| 1979Q3 | 0.704735 | 0 |
| 1979Q4 | 0.93927 | 0 |
| 1980Q1 | 0.944563 | 0 |
| 1980Q2 | 0.969361 | 1 |
| 1980Q3 | 0.123054 | 1 |
| 1980Q4 | 0.986834 | 1 |
| 1981Q1 | 0.990094 | 1 |
| 1981Q2 | 0.992068 | 0 |
| 1981Q3 | 0.926387 | 0 |
| 1981Q4 | 0.338244 | 1 |
| 1982Q1 | 0.546651 | 1 |
| 1982Q2 | 0.76338 | 1 |
| 1982Q3 | 0.106909 | 1 |
| 1982Q4 | 0.414182 | 1 |
| 1983Q1 | 0.159202 | 1 |
| 1983Q2 | 0.100398 | 0 |
| 1983Q3 | 0.020954 | 0 |
| 1983Q4 | 0.019241 | 0 |
| 1984Q1 | 0.016282 | 0 |
| 1984Q2 | 0.006496 | 0 |
| 1984Q3 | 0.048834 | 0 |
| 1984Q4 | 0.013027 | 0 |
| 1985Q1 | 0.005265 | 0 |
| 1985Q2 | 0.011755 | 0 |
| 1985Q3 | 0.02 | 0 |
| 1985Q4 | 0.061603 | 0 |
| 1986Q1 | 0.242461 | 0 |
| 1986Q2 | 0.314937 | 0 |
| 1986Q3 | 0.25242 | 0 |
| 1986Q4 | 0.268179 | 0 |
| 1987Q1 | 0.189621 | 0 |
| 1987Q2 | 0.045987 | 0 |
| 1987Q3 | 0.030254 | 0 |
| 1987Q4 | 0.031566 | 0 |
| 1988Q1 | 0.064068 | 0 |
| 1988Q2 | 0.04545 | 0 |
| 1988Q3 | 0.091053 | 0 |
| 1988Q4 | 0.121067 | 0 |
| 1989Q1 | 0.239418 | 0 |
| 1989Q2 | 0.515028 | 0 |
| 1989Q3 | 0.578321 | 0 |
| 1989Q4 | 0.528318 | 0 |
| 1990Q1 | 0.197872 | 0 |
| 1990Q2 | 0.141329 | 0 |
| 1990Q3 | 0.135845 | 0 |
| 1990Q4 | 0.201759 | 1 |
| 1991Q1 | 0.064663 | 1 |
| 1991Q2 | 0.016197 | 1 |
| 1991Q3 | 0.014357 | 1 |
| 1991Q4 | 0.015917 | 1 |
| 1992Q1 | 0.004674 | 1 |
| 1992Q2 | 0.002483 | 1 |
| 1992Q3 | 0.005365 | 1 |
| 1992Q4 | 0.003548 | 0 |
| 1993Q1 | 0.006847 | 0 |
| 1993Q2 | 0.009691 | 0 |
| 1993Q3 | 0.014446 | 0 |
| 1993Q4 | 0.012145 | 0 |
| 1994Q1 | 0.00695 | 0 |
| 1994Q2 | 0.003379 | 0 |
| 1994Q3 | 0.005101 | 0 |
| 1994Q4 | 0.005381 | 0 |
| 1995Q1 | 0.021751 | 0 |
| 1995Q2 | 0.115551 | 0 |
| 1995Q3 | 0.139876 | 0 |
| 1995Q4 | 0.21258 | 0 |
| 1996Q1 | 0.148791 | 0 |
| 1996Q2 | 0.03545 | 0 |
| 1996Q3 | 0.032768 | 0 |
| 1996Q4 | 0.059261 | 0 |
| 1997Q1 | 0.041145 | 0 |
| 1997Q2 | 0.046777 | 0 |
| 1997Q3 | 0.0876 | 0 |
| 1997Q4 | 0.130365 | 0 |
| 1998Q1 | 0.219688 | 0 |
| 1998Q2 | 0.212346 | 0 |
| 1998Q3 | 0.404792 | 0 |
| 1998Q4 | 0.575504 | 0 |
| 1999Q1 | 0.367213 | 0 |
| 1999Q2 | 0.174209 | 0 |
| 1999Q3 | 0.178382 | 0 |
| 1999Q4 | 0.148357 | 0 |
| 2000Q1 | 0.117813 | 0 |
| 2000Q2 | 0.484743 | 0 |
| 2000Q3 | 0.666912 | 0 |
| 2000Q4 | 0.79534 | 0 |
| 2001Q1 | 0.752992 | 0 |
| 2001Q2 | 0.264681 | 0 |
| 2001Q3 | 0.181427 | 1 |
| 2001Q4 | 0.056641 | 1 |
| 2002Q1 | 0.015442 | 1 |
| 2002Q2 | 0.01611 | 1 |
| 2002Q3 | 0.083205 | 1 |
| 2002Q4 | 0.105185 | 0 |
| 2003Q1 | 0.056908 | 0 |
| 2003Q2 | 0.054223 | 0 |
| 2003Q3 | 0.012439 | 0 |
| 2003Q4 | 0.008666 | 0 |
| 2004Q1 | 0.010813 | 0 |
| 2004Q2 | 0.003828 | 0 |
| 2004Q3 | 0.011354 | 0 |
| 2004Q4 | 0.022696 | 0 |
| 2005Q1 | 0.024659 | 0 |
| 2005Q2 | 0.066498 | 0 |
| 2005Q3 | 0.111752 | 0 |
| 2005Q4 | 0.16393 | 0 |
| 2006Q1 | 0.223914 | 0 |
| 2006Q2 | 0.198183 | 0 |
| 2006Q3 | 0.343684 | 0 |
| 2006Q4 | 0.413786 | 0 |
| 2007Q1 | 0.390589 | 0 |
| 2007Q2 | 0.344501 | 0 |
| 2007Q3 | 0.400341 | 0 |
| 2007Q4 | 0.478365 | 0 |
| 2008Q1 | 0.507809 | 0 |
| 2008Q2 | 0.149785 | 1 |
| 2008Q3 | 0.168755 | 1 |
| 2008Q4 | 0.56393 | 1 |
| 2009Q1 | 0.587125 | 1 |
| 2009Q2 | 0.180052 | 1 |
| 2009Q3 | 0.021266 | 1 |
| 2009Q4 | 0.015214 | 1 |
| 2010Q1 | 0.007462 | 1 |
| 2010Q2 | 0.012794 | 0 |
| 2010Q3 | 0.048082 | 0 |
| 2010Q4 | 0.045866 | 0 |
| 2011Q1 | 0.011859 | 0 |
| 2011Q2 | 0.015587 | 0 |
| 2011Q3 | 0.071867 | 0 |
| 2011Q4 | 0.1365 | 0 |
| 2012Q1 | 0.135702 | 0 |
| 2012Q2 | 0.206037 | 0 |
| 2012Q3 | 0.238192 | 0 |
| 2012Q4 | 0.153349 | 0 |
| 2013Q1 | 0.111613 | 0 |
| 2013Q2 | 0.101057 | 0 |
| 2013Q3 | 0.031949 | 0 |
| 2013Q4 | 0.02744 | 0 |
| 2014Q1 | 0.018828 | 0 |
| 2014Q2 | 0.01918 | 0 |
| 2014Q3 | 0.023863 | 0 |
| 2014Q4 | 0.042866 | 0 |
| 2015Q1 | 0.070775 | 0 |
| 2015Q2 | 0.066065 | 0 |
| 2015Q3 | 0.096121 | 0 |
| 2015Q4 | 0.131001 | 0 |
| 2016Q1 | 0.26243 | 0 |
| 2016Q2 | 0.19562 | 0 |
| 2016Q3 | 0.195089 | 0 |
| 2016Q4 | 0.085295 | 0 |
| 2017Q1 | 0.05529 | 0 |
| 2017Q2 | 0.09801 | 0 |
| 2017Q3 | 0.108798 | 0 |
| 2017Q4 | 0.078492 | 0 |
| 2018Q1 | 0.05165 | 0 |
| 2018Q2 | 0.072979 | 0 |
| 2018Q3 | 0.095269 | 0 |
| 2018Q4 | 0.15246 | 0 |
| 2019Q1 | 0.341672 | 0 |
| 2019Q2 | 0.42433 | 0 |
| 2019Q3 | 0.52502 | 0 |
| 2019Q4 | 0.315059 | 0 |
| 2020Q1 | 0.450501 | 0 |
| 2020Q2 | 0.504108 | 1 |
| 2020Q3 | 0.349643 | 1 |
| 2020Q4 | 0.2285 | 1 |
| 2021Q1 | 0.095013 | 1 |
| 2021Q2 | 0.054029 | 0 |
| 2021Q3 | 0.073314 | 0 |
| 2021Q4 | 0.046696 | 0 |
| 2022Q1 | 0.038026 | 0 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations.
Figure 3: Recession probability (next four quarters) from leading indicators model
| Date | Probability of change in unemployment rate above its 80th percentile over next four quarters from leading indicator model | Change in unemployment rate over four quarters above its unconditional 80th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1965Q1 | 0.043776 | 0 |
| 1965Q2 | 0.075417 | 0 |
| 1965Q3 | 0.067001 | 0 |
| 1965Q4 | 0.02475 | 0 |
| 1966Q1 | 0.030699 | 0 |
| 1966Q2 | 0.209124 | 0 |
| 1966Q3 | 0.387746 | 0 |
| 1966Q4 | 0.522959 | 0 |
| 1967Q1 | 0.312268 | 0 |
| 1967Q2 | 0.028761 | 0 |
| 1967Q3 | 0.006712 | 0 |
| 1967Q4 | 0.009197 | 0 |
| 1968Q1 | 0.044334 | 0 |
| 1968Q2 | 0.164172 | 0 |
| 1968Q3 | 0.17349 | 0 |
| 1968Q4 | 0.088432 | 0 |
| 1969Q1 | 0.213172 | 0 |
| 1969Q2 | 0.775161 | 0 |
| 1969Q3 | 0.792792 | 0 |
| 1969Q4 | 0.66794 | 0 |
| 1970Q1 | 0.707871 | 1 |
| 1970Q2 | 0.317719 | 1 |
| 1970Q3 | 0.113813 | 1 |
| 1970Q4 | 0.038832 | 1 |
| 1971Q1 | 0.006217 | 1 |
| 1971Q2 | 0.023732 | 1 |
| 1971Q3 | 0.095042 | 1 |
| 1971Q4 | 0.056663 | 0 |
| 1972Q1 | 0.004616 | 0 |
| 1972Q2 | 0.015756 | 0 |
| 1972Q3 | 0.022557 | 0 |
| 1972Q4 | 0.022972 | 0 |
| 1973Q1 | 0.149118 | 0 |
| 1973Q2 | 0.679826 | 0 |
| 1973Q3 | 0.968305 | 0 |
| 1973Q4 | 0.95355 | 0 |
| 1974Q1 | 0.863002 | 0 |
| 1974Q2 | 0.983532 | 0 |
| 1974Q3 | 0.996057 | 1 |
| 1974Q4 | 0.978305 | 1 |
| 1975Q1 | 0.257286 | 1 |
| 1975Q2 | 0.005186 | 1 |
| 1975Q3 | 0.004026 | 1 |
| 1975Q4 | 0.003898 | 1 |
| 1976Q1 | 0.003813 | 0 |
| 1976Q2 | 0.01055 | 0 |
| 1976Q3 | 0.019854 | 0 |
| 1976Q4 | 0.020882 | 0 |
| 1977Q1 | 0.00597 | 0 |
| 1977Q2 | 0.011911 | 0 |
| 1977Q3 | 0.041478 | 0 |
| 1977Q4 | 0.060851 | 0 |
| 1978Q1 | 0.031223 | 0 |
| 1978Q2 | 0.024758 | 0 |
| 1978Q3 | 0.060803 | 0 |
| 1978Q4 | 0.334332 | 0 |
| 1979Q1 | 0.455398 | 0 |
| 1979Q2 | 0.58681 | 0 |
| 1979Q3 | 0.794306 | 0 |
| 1979Q4 | 0.943616 | 0 |
| 1980Q1 | 0.954663 | 0 |
| 1980Q2 | 0.925141 | 1 |
| 1980Q3 | 0.013805 | 1 |
| 1980Q4 | 0.777607 | 1 |
| 1981Q1 | 0.963479 | 1 |
| 1981Q2 | 0.981228 | 0 |
| 1981Q3 | 0.933814 | 0 |
| 1981Q4 | 0.563475 | 1 |
| 1982Q1 | 0.68317 | 1 |
| 1982Q2 | 0.721034 | 1 |
| 1982Q3 | 0.054187 | 1 |
| 1982Q4 | 0.069756 | 1 |
| 1983Q1 | 0.009481 | 1 |
| 1983Q2 | 0.005259 | 0 |
| 1983Q3 | 0.004184 | 0 |
| 1983Q4 | 0.012288 | 0 |
| 1984Q1 | 0.02656 | 0 |
| 1984Q2 | 0.032409 | 0 |
| 1984Q3 | 0.164218 | 0 |
| 1984Q4 | 0.035545 | 0 |
| 1985Q1 | 0.01175 | 0 |
| 1985Q2 | 0.019026 | 0 |
| 1985Q3 | 0.028022 | 0 |
| 1985Q4 | 0.059372 | 0 |
| 1986Q1 | 0.160879 | 0 |
| 1986Q2 | 0.225031 | 0 |
| 1986Q3 | 0.205469 | 0 |
| 1986Q4 | 0.1957 | 0 |
| 1987Q1 | 0.077369 | 0 |
| 1987Q2 | 0.019661 | 0 |
| 1987Q3 | 0.028726 | 0 |
| 1987Q4 | 0.068341 | 0 |
| 1988Q1 | 0.081375 | 0 |
| 1988Q2 | 0.036809 | 0 |
| 1988Q3 | 0.067015 | 0 |
| 1988Q4 | 0.105299 | 0 |
| 1989Q1 | 0.23492 | 0 |
| 1989Q2 | 0.547624 | 0 |
| 1989Q3 | 0.502461 | 0 |
| 1989Q4 | 0.356185 | 0 |
| 1990Q1 | 0.137367 | 0 |
| 1990Q2 | 0.171649 | 0 |
| 1990Q3 | 0.436453 | 0 |
| 1990Q4 | 0.518261 | 1 |
| 1991Q1 | 0.048039 | 1 |
| 1991Q2 | 0.004241 | 1 |
| 1991Q3 | 0.006412 | 1 |
| 1991Q4 | 0.022243 | 1 |
| 1992Q1 | 0.00635 | 1 |
| 1992Q2 | 0.002647 | 1 |
| 1992Q3 | 0.008073 | 1 |
| 1992Q4 | 0.004222 | 0 |
| 1993Q1 | 0.00885 | 0 |
| 1993Q2 | 0.02476 | 0 |
| 1993Q3 | 0.022958 | 0 |
| 1993Q4 | 0.007174 | 0 |
| 1994Q1 | 0.003657 | 0 |
| 1994Q2 | 0.004095 | 0 |
| 1994Q3 | 0.010139 | 0 |
| 1994Q4 | 0.015128 | 0 |
| 1995Q1 | 0.086299 | 0 |
| 1995Q2 | 0.312273 | 0 |
| 1995Q3 | 0.187826 | 0 |
| 1995Q4 | 0.189527 | 0 |
| 1996Q1 | 0.089965 | 0 |
| 1996Q2 | 0.018542 | 0 |
| 1996Q3 | 0.023018 | 0 |
| 1996Q4 | 0.041897 | 0 |
| 1997Q1 | 0.027396 | 0 |
| 1997Q2 | 0.026202 | 0 |
| 1997Q3 | 0.049368 | 0 |
| 1997Q4 | 0.098832 | 0 |
| 1998Q1 | 0.205449 | 0 |
| 1998Q2 | 0.272808 | 0 |
| 1998Q3 | 0.476043 | 0 |
| 1998Q4 | 0.390098 | 0 |
| 1999Q1 | 0.121592 | 0 |
| 1999Q2 | 0.065786 | 0 |
| 1999Q3 | 0.096015 | 0 |
| 1999Q4 | 0.095598 | 0 |
| 2000Q1 | 0.10532 | 0 |
| 2000Q2 | 0.463376 | 0 |
| 2000Q3 | 0.686202 | 0 |
| 2000Q4 | 0.858388 | 0 |
| 2001Q1 | 0.840251 | 0 |
| 2001Q2 | 0.268474 | 0 |
| 2001Q3 | 0.154959 | 1 |
| 2001Q4 | 0.036986 | 1 |
| 2002Q1 | 0.005214 | 1 |
| 2002Q2 | 0.013472 | 1 |
| 2002Q3 | 0.188945 | 1 |
| 2002Q4 | 0.195369 | 0 |
| 2003Q1 | 0.068237 | 0 |
| 2003Q2 | 0.027478 | 0 |
| 2003Q3 | 0.0034 | 0 |
| 2003Q4 | 0.001981 | 0 |
| 2004Q1 | 0.004972 | 0 |
| 2004Q2 | 0.006323 | 0 |
| 2004Q3 | 0.024444 | 0 |
| 2004Q4 | 0.037167 | 0 |
| 2005Q1 | 0.035835 | 0 |
| 2005Q2 | 0.07768 | 0 |
| 2005Q3 | 0.07856 | 0 |
| 2005Q4 | 0.070678 | 0 |
| 2006Q1 | 0.098785 | 0 |
| 2006Q2 | 0.161734 | 0 |
| 2006Q3 | 0.266589 | 0 |
| 2006Q4 | 0.217105 | 0 |
| 2007Q1 | 0.181401 | 0 |
| 2007Q2 | 0.168888 | 0 |
| 2007Q3 | 0.297933 | 0 |
| 2007Q4 | 0.461102 | 0 |
| 2008Q1 | 0.490573 | 0 |
| 2008Q2 | 0.269967 | 1 |
| 2008Q3 | 0.643809 | 1 |
| 2008Q4 | 0.965033 | 1 |
| 2009Q1 | 0.855534 | 1 |
| 2009Q2 | 0.053858 | 1 |
| 2009Q3 | 0.002106 | 1 |
| 2009Q4 | 0.001929 | 1 |
| 2010Q1 | 0.002243 | 1 |
| 2010Q2 | 0.011288 | 0 |
| 2010Q3 | 0.05267 | 0 |
| 2010Q4 | 0.025333 | 0 |
| 2011Q1 | 0.008341 | 0 |
| 2011Q2 | 0.031423 | 0 |
| 2011Q3 | 0.17716 | 0 |
| 2011Q4 | 0.098132 | 0 |
| 2012Q1 | 0.045838 | 0 |
| 2012Q2 | 0.145727 | 0 |
| 2012Q3 | 0.208971 | 0 |
| 2012Q4 | 0.088432 | 0 |
| 2013Q1 | 0.049755 | 0 |
| 2013Q2 | 0.048569 | 0 |
| 2013Q3 | 0.02556 | 0 |
| 2013Q4 | 0.029273 | 0 |
| 2014Q1 | 0.022702 | 0 |
| 2014Q2 | 0.018877 | 0 |
| 2014Q3 | 0.024235 | 0 |
| 2014Q4 | 0.048748 | 0 |
| 2015Q1 | 0.094328 | 0 |
| 2015Q2 | 0.094821 | 0 |
| 2015Q3 | 0.14849 | 0 |
| 2015Q4 | 0.181827 | 0 |
| 2016Q1 | 0.239931 | 0 |
| 2016Q2 | 0.143094 | 0 |
| 2016Q3 | 0.123878 | 0 |
| 2016Q4 | 0.045161 | 0 |
| 2017Q1 | 0.034168 | 0 |
| 2017Q2 | 0.072071 | 0 |
| 2017Q3 | 0.072165 | 0 |
| 2017Q4 | 0.047295 | 0 |
| 2018Q1 | 0.03516 | 0 |
| 2018Q2 | 0.060109 | 0 |
| 2018Q3 | 0.107618 | 0 |
| 2018Q4 | 0.223152 | 0 |
| 2019Q1 | 0.382566 | 0 |
| 2019Q2 | 0.388219 | 0 |
| 2019Q3 | 0.457778 | 0 |
| 2019Q4 | 0.239011 | 0 |
| 2020Q1 | 0.59163 | 0 |
| 2020Q2 | 0.997768 | 1 |
| 2020Q3 | 0.000754 | 1 |
| 2020Q4 | 0.033637 | 1 |
| 2021Q1 | 0.016838 | 1 |
| 2021Q2 | 0.023988 | 0 |
| 2021Q3 | 0.094894 | 0 |
| 2021Q4 | 0.066794 | 0 |
| 2022Q1 | 0.042082 | 0 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations
Figure 4: Recession probability (next four quarters) from macroeconomic indicators model
| Date | Probability of change in unemployment rate above its 80th percentile over next four quarters from macroeconomic model | Change in unemployment rate over four quarters above its unconditional 80th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1965Q1 | 0.006968854 | 0 |
| 1965Q2 | 0.01165289 | 0 |
| 1965Q3 | 0.014992239 | 0 |
| 1965Q4 | 0.012206469 | 0 |
| 1966Q1 | 0.016945144 | 0 |
| 1966Q2 | 0.047767911 | 0 |
| 1966Q3 | 0.073067071 | 0 |
| 1966Q4 | 0.215180537 | 0 |
| 1967Q1 | 0.16040131 | 0 |
| 1967Q2 | 0.046237991 | 0 |
| 1967Q3 | 0.027809537 | 0 |
| 1967Q4 | 0.026403142 | 0 |
| 1968Q1 | 0.09015671 | 0 |
| 1968Q2 | 0.275082579 | 0 |
| 1968Q3 | 0.419600515 | 0 |
| 1968Q4 | 0.318016163 | 0 |
| 1969Q1 | 0.366478523 | 0 |
| 1969Q2 | 0.763853223 | 0 |
| 1969Q3 | 0.709224046 | 0 |
| 1969Q4 | 0.648257498 | 0 |
| 1970Q1 | 0.646724324 | 1 |
| 1970Q2 | 0.260111349 | 1 |
| 1970Q3 | 0.280327178 | 1 |
| 1970Q4 | 0.274864443 | 1 |
| 1971Q1 | 0.122304886 | 1 |
| 1971Q2 | 0.113511281 | 1 |
| 1971Q3 | 0.137566302 | 1 |
| 1971Q4 | 0.167390093 | 0 |
| 1972Q1 | 0.033967332 | 0 |
| 1972Q2 | 0.043751026 | 0 |
| 1972Q3 | 0.038860383 | 0 |
| 1972Q4 | 0.040359169 | 0 |
| 1973Q1 | 0.118904265 | 0 |
| 1973Q2 | 0.365722867 | 0 |
| 1973Q3 | 0.890477968 | 0 |
| 1973Q4 | 0.971400638 | 0 |
| 1974Q1 | 0.933625394 | 0 |
| 1974Q2 | 0.985296033 | 0 |
| 1974Q3 | 0.99505184 | 1 |
| 1974Q4 | 0.991544547 | 1 |
| 1975Q1 | 0.744178733 | 1 |
| 1975Q2 | 0.093370925 | 1 |
| 1975Q3 | 0.076621783 | 1 |
| 1975Q4 | 0.050827797 | 1 |
| 1976Q1 | 0.037044303 | 0 |
| 1976Q2 | 0.023691688 | 0 |
| 1976Q3 | 0.012633809 | 0 |
| 1976Q4 | 0.015341516 | 0 |
| 1977Q1 | 0.010368834 | 0 |
| 1977Q2 | 0.02308926 | 0 |
| 1977Q3 | 0.03281038 | 0 |
| 1977Q4 | 0.044806434 | 0 |
| 1978Q1 | 0.033916534 | 0 |
| 1978Q2 | 0.058656379 | 0 |
| 1978Q3 | 0.112160289 | 0 |
| 1978Q4 | 0.341808165 | 0 |
| 1979Q1 | 0.515539948 | 0 |
| 1979Q2 | 0.752633771 | 0 |
| 1979Q3 | 0.892446404 | 0 |
| 1979Q4 | 0.976507901 | 0 |
| 1980Q1 | 0.98694227 | 0 |
| 1980Q2 | 0.996515117 | 1 |
| 1980Q3 | 0.636139457 | 1 |
| 1980Q4 | 0.991170188 | 1 |
| 1981Q1 | 0.988062011 | 1 |
| 1981Q2 | 0.97641039 | 0 |
| 1981Q3 | 0.899312648 | 0 |
| 1981Q4 | 0.52177047 | 1 |
| 1982Q1 | 0.394105791 | 1 |
| 1982Q2 | 0.412259735 | 1 |
| 1982Q3 | 0.048803752 | 1 |
| 1982Q4 | 0.09434243 | 1 |
| 1983Q1 | 0.022068695 | 1 |
| 1983Q2 | 0.008724594 | 0 |
| 1983Q3 | 0.001460062 | 0 |
| 1983Q4 | 0.003372911 | 0 |
| 1984Q1 | 0.007556413 | 0 |
| 1984Q2 | 0.003612004 | 0 |
| 1984Q3 | 0.019091016 | 0 |
| 1984Q4 | 0.008364182 | 0 |
| 1985Q1 | 0.003650314 | 0 |
| 1985Q2 | 0.009018314 | 0 |
| 1985Q3 | 0.011301441 | 0 |
| 1985Q4 | 0.031296507 | 0 |
| 1986Q1 | 0.090684938 | 0 |
| 1986Q2 | 0.072165123 | 0 |
| 1986Q3 | 0.083260418 | 0 |
| 1986Q4 | 0.07969034 | 0 |
| 1987Q1 | 0.064268974 | 0 |
| 1987Q2 | 0.036949578 | 0 |
| 1987Q3 | 0.041301548 | 0 |
| 1987Q4 | 0.066204224 | 0 |
| 1988Q1 | 0.102195378 | 0 |
| 1988Q2 | 0.072946717 | 0 |
| 1988Q3 | 0.109741691 | 0 |
| 1988Q4 | 0.100920529 | 0 |
| 1989Q1 | 0.177802518 | 0 |
| 1989Q2 | 0.406929873 | 0 |
| 1989Q3 | 0.450813481 | 0 |
| 1989Q4 | 0.422374353 | 0 |
| 1990Q1 | 0.221753895 | 0 |
| 1990Q2 | 0.134013934 | 0 |
| 1990Q3 | 0.163240235 | 0 |
| 1990Q4 | 0.315698988 | 1 |
| 1991Q1 | 0.084330552 | 1 |
| 1991Q2 | 0.016335165 | 1 |
| 1991Q3 | 0.009174585 | 1 |
| 1991Q4 | 0.008052168 | 1 |
| 1992Q1 | 0.002463285 | 1 |
| 1992Q2 | 0.001278442 | 1 |
| 1992Q3 | 0.002996443 | 1 |
| 1992Q4 | 0.002920762 | 0 |
| 1993Q1 | 0.005352501 | 0 |
| 1993Q2 | 0.007088259 | 0 |
| 1993Q3 | 0.008229694 | 0 |
| 1993Q4 | 0.007528543 | 0 |
| 1994Q1 | 0.00410873 | 0 |
| 1994Q2 | 0.002280386 | 0 |
| 1994Q3 | 0.004170846 | 0 |
| 1994Q4 | 0.004259015 | 0 |
| 1995Q1 | 0.013541007 | 0 |
| 1995Q2 | 0.051625967 | 0 |
| 1995Q3 | 0.055877128 | 0 |
| 1995Q4 | 0.081189747 | 0 |
| 1996Q1 | 0.071805615 | 0 |
| 1996Q2 | 0.022210917 | 0 |
| 1996Q3 | 0.02369895 | 0 |
| 1996Q4 | 0.041222563 | 0 |
| 1997Q1 | 0.028494398 | 0 |
| 1997Q2 | 0.026998174 | 0 |
| 1997Q3 | 0.044625451 | 0 |
| 1997Q4 | 0.059162224 | 0 |
| 1998Q1 | 0.08617118 | 0 |
| 1998Q2 | 0.09992366 | 0 |
| 1998Q3 | 0.200715779 | 0 |
| 1998Q4 | 0.458809849 | 0 |
| 1999Q1 | 0.324016217 | 0 |
| 1999Q2 | 0.19306216 | 0 |
| 1999Q3 | 0.219743978 | 0 |
| 1999Q4 | 0.212893144 | 0 |
| 2000Q1 | 0.188928529 | 0 |
| 2000Q2 | 0.629820534 | 0 |
| 2000Q3 | 0.744070151 | 0 |
| 2000Q4 | 0.858334791 | 0 |
| 2001Q1 | 0.832893652 | 0 |
| 2001Q2 | 0.497582023 | 0 |
| 2001Q3 | 0.336948199 | 1 |
| 2001Q4 | 0.106042887 | 1 |
| 2002Q1 | 0.023353664 | 1 |
| 2002Q2 | 0.023909264 | 1 |
| 2002Q3 | 0.128403424 | 1 |
| 2002Q4 | 0.216701909 | 0 |
| 2003Q1 | 0.137047251 | 0 |
| 2003Q2 | 0.053860769 | 0 |
| 2003Q3 | 0.016724014 | 0 |
| 2003Q4 | 0.011855039 | 0 |
| 2004Q1 | 0.012066616 | 0 |
| 2004Q2 | 0.008122256 | 0 |
| 2004Q3 | 0.019206961 | 0 |
| 2004Q4 | 0.03521407 | 0 |
| 2005Q1 | 0.024151872 | 0 |
| 2005Q2 | 0.058596373 | 0 |
| 2005Q3 | 0.121792091 | 0 |
| 2005Q4 | 0.159782191 | 0 |
| 2006Q1 | 0.203472444 | 0 |
| 2006Q2 | 0.201891068 | 0 |
| 2006Q3 | 0.248839357 | 0 |
| 2006Q4 | 0.193103355 | 0 |
| 2007Q1 | 0.202701813 | 0 |
| 2007Q2 | 0.203734963 | 0 |
| 2007Q3 | 0.235543162 | 0 |
| 2007Q4 | 0.515910142 | 0 |
| 2008Q1 | 0.727241238 | 0 |
| 2008Q2 | 0.424043995 | 1 |
| 2008Q3 | 0.501802544 | 1 |
| 2008Q4 | 0.821789107 | 1 |
| 2009Q1 | 0.431412617 | 1 |
| 2009Q2 | 0.031196418 | 1 |
| 2009Q3 | 0.000766965 | 1 |
| 2009Q4 | 0.001487058 | 1 |
| 2010Q1 | 0.001048457 | 1 |
| 2010Q2 | 0.001510822 | 0 |
| 2010Q3 | 0.004454757 | 0 |
| 2010Q4 | 0.004561225 | 0 |
| 2011Q1 | 0.002386008 | 0 |
| 2011Q2 | 0.004770317 | 0 |
| 2011Q3 | 0.025167821 | 0 |
| 2011Q4 | 0.05141512 | 0 |
| 2012Q1 | 0.049980742 | 0 |
| 2012Q2 | 0.053780117 | 0 |
| 2012Q3 | 0.059112043 | 0 |
| 2012Q4 | 0.036511153 | 0 |
| 2013Q1 | 0.028016563 | 0 |
| 2013Q2 | 0.025320843 | 0 |
| 2013Q3 | 0.012480673 | 0 |
| 2013Q4 | 0.011037444 | 0 |
| 2014Q1 | 0.008553545 | 0 |
| 2014Q2 | 0.013248855 | 0 |
| 2014Q3 | 0.01551144 | 0 |
| 2014Q4 | 0.028067467 | 0 |
| 2015Q1 | 0.02722213 | 0 |
| 2015Q2 | 0.034191223 | 0 |
| 2015Q3 | 0.083323417 | 0 |
| 2015Q4 | 0.143491376 | 0 |
| 2016Q1 | 0.332592985 | 0 |
| 2016Q2 | 0.191424477 | 0 |
| 2016Q3 | 0.161943058 | 0 |
| 2016Q4 | 0.109812612 | 0 |
| 2017Q1 | 0.095924852 | 0 |
| 2017Q2 | 0.120007447 | 0 |
| 2017Q3 | 0.116200045 | 0 |
| 2017Q4 | 0.091921077 | 0 |
| 2018Q1 | 0.065775964 | 0 |
| 2018Q2 | 0.121659416 | 0 |
| 2018Q3 | 0.159740388 | 0 |
| 2018Q4 | 0.213515781 | 0 |
| 2019Q1 | 0.340833367 | 0 |
| 2019Q2 | 0.446806715 | 0 |
| 2019Q3 | 0.488678098 | 0 |
| 2019Q4 | 0.354114939 | 0 |
| 2020Q1 | 0.52901403 | 0 |
| 2020Q2 | 0.00273085 | 1 |
| 2020Q3 | 0.022405252 | 1 |
| 2020Q4 | 0.045551413 | 1 |
| 2021Q1 | 0.034049536 | 1 |
| 2021Q2 | 0.077603547 | 0 |
| 2021Q3 | 0.171968319 | 0 |
| 2021Q4 | 0.301166311 | 0 |
| 2022Q1 | 0.526002145 | 0 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations
Figure 5: Recession probability (next eight quarters) from macroeconomic indicators model
| Date | Probability of change in unemployment rate above its 80th percentile over next eight quarters from macroeconomic model | Change in unemployment rate over eight quarters above its unconditional 80th percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1965Q1 | 0.007611084 | 0 |
| 1965Q2 | 0.015641816 | 0 |
| 1965Q3 | 0.02407251 | 0 |
| 1965Q4 | 0.02187925 | 0 |
| 1966Q1 | 0.036808344 | 0 |
| 1966Q2 | 0.118499613 | 0 |
| 1966Q3 | 0.191894274 | 0 |
| 1966Q4 | 0.503476875 | 0 |
| 1967Q1 | 0.362589633 | 0 |
| 1967Q2 | 0.086414095 | 0 |
| 1967Q3 | 0.045002326 | 0 |
| 1967Q4 | 0.039008713 | 0 |
| 1968Q1 | 0.179605322 | 0 |
| 1968Q2 | 0.584449559 | 0 |
| 1968Q3 | 0.755002263 | 0 |
| 1968Q4 | 0.654883749 | 0 |
| 1969Q1 | 0.72132289 | 0 |
| 1969Q2 | 0.962907129 | 0 |
| 1969Q3 | 0.949286507 | 0 |
| 1969Q4 | 0.922771625 | 0 |
| 1970Q1 | 0.877896767 | 0 |
| 1970Q2 | 0.386832736 | 0 |
| 1970Q3 | 0.287973037 | 1 |
| 1970Q4 | 0.180083272 | 1 |
| 1971Q1 | 0.051143218 | 1 |
| 1971Q2 | 0.054673339 | 1 |
| 1971Q3 | 0.076991875 | 1 |
| 1971Q4 | 0.096631705 | 1 |
| 1972Q1 | 0.012153609 | 1 |
| 1972Q2 | 0.020279155 | 0 |
| 1972Q3 | 0.021183843 | 0 |
| 1972Q4 | 0.02763916 | 0 |
| 1973Q1 | 0.156961805 | 0 |
| 1973Q2 | 0.554018379 | 0 |
| 1973Q3 | 0.979188438 | 0 |
| 1973Q4 | 0.995356039 | 0 |
| 1974Q1 | 0.980731253 | 0 |
| 1974Q2 | 0.997534702 | 0 |
| 1974Q3 | 0.999126294 | 0 |
| 1974Q4 | 0.993929191 | 0 |
| 1975Q1 | 0.318300487 | 1 |
| 1975Q2 | 0.005983102 | 1 |
| 1975Q3 | 0.007052691 | 1 |
| 1975Q4 | 0.004089878 | 1 |
| 1976Q1 | 0.003675182 | 1 |
| 1976Q2 | 0.002798287 | 1 |
| 1976Q3 | 0.001336452 | 1 |
| 1976Q4 | 0.001673452 | 0 |
| 1977Q1 | 0.001161268 | 0 |
| 1977Q2 | 0.004052269 | 0 |
| 1977Q3 | 0.008414832 | 0 |
| 1977Q4 | 0.015696524 | 0 |
| 1978Q1 | 0.013468529 | 0 |
| 1978Q2 | 0.03199847 | 0 |
| 1978Q3 | 0.078830488 | 0 |
| 1978Q4 | 0.376507968 | 0 |
| 1979Q1 | 0.586227569 | 0 |
| 1979Q2 | 0.832216394 | 0 |
| 1979Q3 | 0.943884377 | 0 |
| 1979Q4 | 0.992485803 | 0 |
| 1980Q1 | 0.995117469 | 0 |
| 1980Q2 | 0.996971681 | 0 |
| 1980Q3 | 0.299046323 | 1 |
| 1980Q4 | 0.994192306 | 0 |
| 1981Q1 | 0.992122451 | 0 |
| 1981Q2 | 0.985807644 | 1 |
| 1981Q3 | 0.902806504 | 0 |
| 1981Q4 | 0.172569252 | 1 |
| 1982Q1 | 0.086527053 | 1 |
| 1982Q2 | 0.078663643 | 1 |
| 1982Q3 | 0.001698888 | 1 |
| 1982Q4 | 0.002748005 | 1 |
| 1983Q1 | 0.000552709 | 1 |
| 1983Q2 | 0.000248544 | 1 |
| 1983Q3 | 5.20E-05 | 1 |
| 1983Q4 | 0.00020633 | 0 |
| 1984Q1 | 0.000744348 | 0 |
| 1984Q2 | 0.000391782 | 0 |
| 1984Q3 | 0.00332166 | 0 |
| 1984Q4 | 0.001081351 | 0 |
| 1985Q1 | 0.000381543 | 0 |
| 1985Q2 | 0.001016597 | 0 |
| 1985Q3 | 0.001587031 | 0 |
| 1985Q4 | 0.006698559 | 0 |
| 1986Q1 | 0.028573543 | 0 |
| 1986Q2 | 0.020313127 | 0 |
| 1986Q3 | 0.023508798 | 0 |
| 1986Q4 | 0.024889586 | 0 |
| 1987Q1 | 0.023035546 | 0 |
| 1987Q2 | 0.012694426 | 0 |
| 1987Q3 | 0.015254379 | 0 |
| 1987Q4 | 0.026646967 | 0 |
| 1988Q1 | 0.053277601 | 0 |
| 1988Q2 | 0.042131702 | 0 |
| 1988Q3 | 0.079845403 | 0 |
| 1988Q4 | 0.095084996 | 0 |
| 1989Q1 | 0.22372142 | 0 |
| 1989Q2 | 0.548311649 | 0 |
| 1989Q3 | 0.59286764 | 0 |
| 1989Q4 | 0.520980706 | 0 |
| 1990Q1 | 0.242886615 | 0 |
| 1990Q2 | 0.130918066 | 0 |
| 1990Q3 | 0.130927652 | 0 |
| 1990Q4 | 0.217156117 | 0 |
| 1991Q1 | 0.027123684 | 0 |
| 1991Q2 | 0.003194303 | 1 |
| 1991Q3 | 0.001643321 | 1 |
| 1991Q4 | 0.00113591 | 1 |
| 1992Q1 | 0.000216666 | 1 |
| 1992Q2 | 8.52E-05 | 1 |
| 1992Q3 | 0.000221101 | 1 |
| 1992Q4 | 0.000227261 | 0 |
| 1993Q1 | 0.000581135 | 0 |
| 1993Q2 | 0.000876203 | 0 |
| 1993Q3 | 0.001381414 | 0 |
| 1993Q4 | 0.001360241 | 0 |
| 1994Q1 | 0.000687243 | 0 |
| 1994Q2 | 0.000423127 | 0 |
| 1994Q3 | 0.001006207 | 0 |
| 1994Q4 | 0.001354775 | 0 |
| 1995Q1 | 0.007058423 | 0 |
| 1995Q2 | 0.036617817 | 0 |
| 1995Q3 | 0.040119139 | 0 |
| 1995Q4 | 0.070479654 | 0 |
| 1996Q1 | 0.056545516 | 0 |
| 1996Q2 | 0.012404594 | 0 |
| 1996Q3 | 0.015332531 | 0 |
| 1996Q4 | 0.030187762 | 0 |
| 1997Q1 | 0.020140289 | 0 |
| 1997Q2 | 0.022426285 | 0 |
| 1997Q3 | 0.047565504 | 0 |
| 1997Q4 | 0.078093145 | 0 |
| 1998Q1 | 0.127349045 | 0 |
| 1998Q2 | 0.165874749 | 0 |
| 1998Q3 | 0.330670135 | 0 |
| 1998Q4 | 0.64336327 | 0 |
| 1999Q1 | 0.481599748 | 0 |
| 1999Q2 | 0.280029505 | 0 |
| 1999Q3 | 0.321540261 | 0 |
| 1999Q4 | 0.332440439 | 0 |
| 2000Q1 | 0.308664551 | 0 |
| 2000Q2 | 0.835644847 | 0 |
| 2000Q3 | 0.910977777 | 0 |
| 2000Q4 | 0.962493011 | 0 |
| 2001Q1 | 0.938221153 | 0 |
| 2001Q2 | 0.607514648 | 0 |
| 2001Q3 | 0.327564078 | 0 |
| 2001Q4 | 0.045845692 | 0 |
| 2002Q1 | 0.006165368 | 1 |
| 2002Q2 | 0.005817919 | 1 |
| 2002Q3 | 0.05087341 | 1 |
| 2002Q4 | 0.087577905 | 1 |
| 2003Q1 | 0.049868706 | 1 |
| 2003Q2 | 0.01614091 | 1 |
| 2003Q3 | 0.003526502 | 0 |
| 2003Q4 | 0.002857805 | 0 |
| 2004Q1 | 0.00344785 | 0 |
| 2004Q2 | 0.002038107 | 0 |
| 2004Q3 | 0.007059242 | 0 |
| 2004Q4 | 0.016754269 | 0 |
| 2005Q1 | 0.013685299 | 0 |
| 2005Q2 | 0.04790032 | 0 |
| 2005Q3 | 0.129925759 | 0 |
| 2005Q4 | 0.183423648 | 0 |
| 2006Q1 | 0.286036543 | 0 |
| 2006Q2 | 0.294446709 | 0 |
| 2006Q3 | 0.393141502 | 0 |
| 2006Q4 | 0.355849834 | 0 |
| 2007Q1 | 0.360202929 | 0 |
| 2007Q2 | 0.349895045 | 0 |
| 2007Q3 | 0.364643379 | 0 |
| 2007Q4 | 0.659802189 | 0 |
| 2008Q1 | 0.780954729 | 0 |
| 2008Q2 | 0.331253295 | 0 |
| 2008Q3 | 0.308506443 | 0 |
| 2008Q4 | 0.481762999 | 1 |
| 2009Q1 | 0.057091953 | 1 |
| 2009Q2 | 0.000949294 | 1 |
| 2009Q3 | 1.41E-05 | 1 |
| 2009Q4 | 2.51E-05 | 1 |
| 2010Q1 | 1.74E-05 | 1 |
| 2010Q2 | 3.14E-05 | 1 |
| 2010Q3 | 0.000134403 | 1 |
| 2010Q4 | 0.000131031 | 1 |
| 2011Q1 | 7.38E-05 | 0 |
| 2011Q2 | 0.000163146 | 0 |
| 2011Q3 | 0.001285709 | 0 |
| 2011Q4 | 0.003898658 | 0 |
| 2012Q1 | 0.004739863 | 0 |
| 2012Q2 | 0.005723345 | 0 |
| 2012Q3 | 0.007410483 | 0 |
| 2012Q4 | 0.004986275 | 0 |
| 2013Q1 | 0.003577677 | 0 |
| 2013Q2 | 0.00353388 | 0 |
| 2013Q3 | 0.001569947 | 0 |
| 2013Q4 | 0.001629238 | 0 |
| 2014Q1 | 0.001455276 | 0 |
| 2014Q2 | 0.003286257 | 0 |
| 2014Q3 | 0.004353894 | 0 |
| 2014Q4 | 0.010901175 | 0 |
| 2015Q1 | 0.012608292 | 0 |
| 2015Q2 | 0.016165939 | 0 |
| 2015Q3 | 0.050845694 | 0 |
| 2015Q4 | 0.097827933 | 0 |
| 2016Q1 | 0.30348618 | 0 |
| 2016Q2 | 0.17186959 | 0 |
| 2016Q3 | 0.154924508 | 0 |
| 2016Q4 | 0.096104113 | 0 |
| 2017Q1 | 0.09276577 | 0 |
| 2017Q2 | 0.145969367 | 0 |
| 2017Q3 | 0.15298469 | 0 |
| 2017Q4 | 0.129428828 | 0 |
| 2018Q1 | 0.095414939 | 0 |
| 2018Q2 | 0.193449744 | 0 |
| 2018Q3 | 0.281974948 | 0 |
| 2018Q4 | 0.365343015 | 0 |
| 2019Q1 | 0.568733133 | 0 |
| 2019Q2 | 0.733393862 | 0 |
| 2019Q3 | 0.781548384 | 0 |
| 2019Q4 | 0.632333375 | 0 |
| 2020Q1 | 0.766279855 | 0 |
| 2020Q2 | 1.74E-05 | 1 |
| 2020Q3 | 0.002126292 | 1 |
| 2020Q4 | 0.01502557 | 1 |
| 2021Q1 | 0.013457338 | 1 |
| 2021Q2 | 0.038109861 | 1 |
| 2021Q3 | 0.156094512 | 0 |
| 2021Q4 | 0.393285823 | 0 |
| 2022Q1 | 0.673959467 | 0 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations
Last Update:
June 21, 2022