Accessible Version

Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Normalization Accessible Data

Figure 1. Projected Average Annual Remittances (Billions of Dollars)

Year $100 bn Scenario $500 bn Scenario $1.0 tn Scenario $2.3 tn Scenario
2017 74.776 74.711 74.573 73.809
2018 57.628 57.285 56.691 53.545
2019 42.476 41.849 40.848 35.810
2020 40.282 39.557 38.392 31.512
2021 46.303 45.648 43.849 36.444
2022 53.490 52.536 51.408 43.479
2023 59.577 59.052 58.973 51.407
2024 64.895 65.589 65.916 59.855
2025 69.730 70.806 71.410 66.981
2026 74.992 76.283 76.955 74.106
2027 79.907 81.319 82.370 81.245
2028 85.136 86.666 88.017 88.243
2029 90.573 92.264 93.862 95.104
2030 95.619 97.335 99.208 101.107
2031 100.814 102.684 104.536 106.746
2032 106.003 107.877 109.633 111.922
2033 111.723 113.443 115.314 117.798
2034 117.402 119.237 121.204 123.913
2035 123.211 125.156 127.300 130.420

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Figure 2. Projected Standard Deviation of Annual Remittances (Billions of Dollars)

Year $100 bn Scenario $500 bn Scenario $1.0 tn Scenario $2.3 tn Scenario
2017 4.747 4.757 4.787 4.967
2018 16.298 16.313 16.331 16.635
2019 20.287 20.268 20.230 21.994
2020 18.299 18.272 18.238 23.877
2021 13.866 13.874 15.228 25.782
2022 8.424 9.036 12.733 27.391
2023 4.114 6.448 11.356 28.418
2024 4.345 6.707 11.840 28.923
2025 5.951 7.808 12.974 29.768
2026 7.994 9.135 13.737 29.983
2027 9.888 10.669 14.710 30.385
2028 11.749 12.187 15.677 30.763
2029 13.669 13.784 16.639 30.866
2030 15.494 15.368 17.736 31.076
2031 17.280 17.025 19.051 31.729
2032 19.154 18.630 20.264 32.197
2033 21.064 20.392 21.681 32.737
2034 23.102 22.474 23.543 33.794
2035 25.150 24.545 25.521 35.306

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Figure 3. Projected Likelihood of Deferred Asset (Percent)

Quarter $100 bn Scenario $500 bn Scenario $1.0 tn Scenario $2.3 tn Scenario
2017:Q2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2017:Q3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2017:Q4 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2018:Q1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2018:Q2 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.040
2018:Q3 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.200
2018:Q4 0.320 0.320 0.320 0.860
2019:Q1 0.800 0.840 0.920 2.600
2019:Q2 1.740 1.820 2.080 5.960
2019:Q3 2.740 2.960 3.340 9.780
2019:Q4 3.600 3.860 4.260 14.040
2020:Q1 3.820 4.040 4.500 16.560
2020:Q2 3.880 4.120 4.600 18.200
2020:Q3 3.880 4.140 4.620 19.480
2020:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 20.720
2021:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 22.080
2021:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 23.060
2021:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 23.840
2021:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 24.760
2022:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 25.200
2022:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 25.860
2022:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 26.500
2022:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 26.940
2023:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 27.300
2023:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 27.720
2023:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 28.200
2023:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 28.320
2024:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 28.680
2024:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 28.860
2024:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 29.040
2024:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 29.260
2025:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 29.340
2025:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 29.560
2025:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 29.720
2025:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 29.920
2026:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 29.980
2026:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.120
2026:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.260
2026:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.320
2027:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.360
2027:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.440
2027:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.520
2027:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.540
2028:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.560
2028:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.620
2028:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.640
2028:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.660
2029:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.660
2029:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.680
2029:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.720
2029:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.720
2030:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.720
2030:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.720
2030:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.740
2030:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.740
2031:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.780
2031:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.780
2031:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.780
2031:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.800
2032:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2032:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2032:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2032:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2033:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2033:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2033:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2033:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2034:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2034:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2034:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2034:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2035:Q1 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2035:Q2 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2035:Q3 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
2035:Q4 3.900 4.140 4.620 30.820
Last Update: January 05, 2018