Accessible Version

Housing Market Tightness During COVID-19: Increased Demand or Reduced Supply?, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Months' Supply and House Price Growth

Monthly

Percent change, s.a.a.r

Month Months' Supply Price Growth
2000m1 4.54 7.18
2000m2 4.52 7.06
2000m3 4.52 7.06
2000m4 4.54 7.18
2000m5 4.56 7.13
2000m6 4.57 6.87
2000m7 4.58 6.82
2000m8 4.56 7.22
2000m9 4.53 7.54
2000m10 4.49 7.57
2000m11 4.47 7.70
2000m12 4.47 7.96
2001m1 4.49 7.81
2001m2 4.51 7.20
2001m3 4.52 7.09
2001m4 4.53 7.16
2001m5 4.53 7.19
2001m6 4.55 6.90
2001m7 4.57 6.71
2001m8 4.60 6.76
2001m9 4.62 6.78
2001m10 4.62 6.87
2001m11 4.62 6.57
2001m12 4.61 6.39
2002m1 4.61 6.35
2002m2 4.62 6.61
2002m3 4.64 6.72
2002m4 4.67 6.67
2002m5 4.70 6.73
2002m6 4.74 7.05
2002m7 4.77 7.38
2002m8 4.80 7.50
2002m9 4.82 7.40
2002m10 4.82 7.57
2002m11 4.81 7.81
2002m12 4.79 8.03
2003m1 4.79 7.84
2003m2 4.81 7.67
2003m3 4.83 7.48
2003m4 4.82 7.47
2003m5 4.78 7.49
2003m6 4.70 7.24
2003m7 4.62 7.27
2003m8 4.56 7.71
2003m9 4.54 8.39
2003m10 4.56 8.74
2003m11 4.61 8.68
2003m12 4.65 8.58
2004m1 4.65 9.06
2004m2 4.60 9.79
2004m3 4.52 10.37
2004m4 4.43 10.32
2004m5 4.35 10.85
2004m6 4.29 11.31
2004m7 4.26 11.91
2004m8 4.24 11.58
2004m9 4.24 11.42
2004m10 4.23 11.19
2004m11 4.21 11.25
2004m12 4.20 11.68
2005m1 4.18 11.90
2005m2 4.17 11.82
2005m3 4.16 11.48
2005m4 4.17 11.95
2005m5 4.20 11.95
2005m6 4.25 12.38
2005m7 4.33 12.39
2005m8 4.43 12.42
2005m9 4.56 12.27
2005m10 4.72 11.45
2005m11 4.91 10.81
2005m12 5.10 9.62
2006m1 5.29 8.49
2006m2 5.48 7.62
2006m3 5.69 7.37
2006m4 5.93 6.93
2006m5 6.18 6.33
2006m6 6.44 5.21
2006m7 6.67 4.01
2006m8 6.83 2.99
2006m9 6.89 1.80
2006m10 6.89 1.29
2006m11 6.87 0.80
2006m12 6.90 0.46
2007m1 7.03 0.37
2007m2 7.27 0.09
2007m3 7.57 -0.22
2007m4 7.89 -0.74
2007m5 8.21 -1.74
2007m6 8.53 -2.55
2007m7 8.84 -3.41
2007m8 9.16 -3.30
2007m9 9.50 -3.92
2007m10 9.80 -4.40
2007m11 10.04 -5.43
2007m12 10.19 -5.72
2008m1 10.26 -6.68
2008m2 10.29 -7.96
2008m3 10.29 -9.03
2008m4 10.24 -9.79
2008m5 10.13 -9.65
2008m6 9.96 -9.81
2008m7 9.79 -9.83
2008m8 9.64 -10.67
2008m9 9.56 -10.33
2008m10 9.57 -10.48
2008m11 9.64 -10.87
2008m12 9.72 -11.35
2009m1 9.75 -11.15
2009m2 9.66 -9.52
2009m3 9.46 -9.26
2009m4 9.17 -9.10
2009m5 8.82 -8.98
2009m6 8.45 -7.81
2009m7 8.11 -6.13
2009m8 7.84 -5.16
2009m9 7.67 -4.47
2009m10 7.61 -3.51
2009m11 7.65 -1.46
2009m12 7.74 -0.67
2010m1 7.86 -0.43
2010m2 7.99 -1.34
2010m3 8.15 -1.00
2010m4 8.38 -0.24
2010m5 8.71 -0.54
2010m6 9.10 -1.91
2010m7 9.48 -4.60
2010m8 9.74 -5.49
2010m9 9.82 -6.34
2010m10 9.73 -6.26
2010m11 9.52 -6.99
2010m12 9.29 -6.60
2011m1 9.09 -6.62
2011m2 8.94 -6.31
2011m3 8.83 -6.67
2011m4 8.68 -7.15
2011m5 8.49 -7.18
2011m6 8.25 -6.27
2011m7 8.00 -4.40
2011m8 7.76 -3.24
2011m9 7.55 -2.42
2011m10 7.36 -2.65
2011m11 7.18 -2.36
2011m12 7.01 -2.31
2012m1 6.81 -1.54
2012m2 6.61 -0.95
2012m3 6.41 0.55
2012m4 6.23 1.76
2012m5 6.07 2.92
2012m6 5.91 3.10
2012m7 5.75 3.48
2012m8 5.57 3.89
2012m9 5.40 4.46
2012m10 5.23 5.18
2012m11 5.10 5.96
2012m12 5.00 6.49
2013m1 4.93 7.24
2013m2 4.88 7.59
2013m3 4.85 8.35
2013m4 4.81 8.64
2013m5 4.78 9.07
2013m6 4.76 9.41
2013m7 4.77 9.61
2013m8 4.82 9.55
2013m9 4.90 9.18
2013m10 4.99 8.60
2013m11 5.08 7.67
2013m12 5.16 7.04
2014m1 5.21 6.53
2014m2 5.25 6.26
2014m3 5.27 4.89
2014m4 5.29 3.99
2014m5 5.31 3.58
2014m6 5.32 3.97
2014m7 5.31 3.88
2014m8 5.29 3.36
2014m9 5.25 3.29
2014m10 5.20 3.85
2014m11 5.13 4.68
2014m12 5.05 4.90
2015m1 4.98 4.67
2015m2 4.92 4.79
2015m3 4.88 5.58
2015m4 4.84 5.76
2015m5 4.81 5.81
2015m6 4.78 5.13
2015m7 4.75 5.06
2015m8 4.72 5.38
2015m9 4.70 5.56
2015m10 4.69 5.40
2015m11 4.69 4.86
2015m12 4.68 5.35
2016m1 4.65 5.82
2016m2 4.61 5.94
2016m3 4.56 5.23
2016m4 4.49 5.42
2016m5 4.43 5.48
2016m6 4.36 5.93
2016m7 4.30 6.03
2016m8 4.24 6.08
2016m9 4.20 6.09
2016m10 4.16 6.11
2016m11 4.14 6.53
2016m12 4.12 6.34
2017m1 4.10 6.20
2017m2 4.07 6.02
2017m3 4.03 6.45
2017m4 3.98 6.71
2017m5 3.93 6.64
2017m6 3.91 6.62
2017m7 3.89 6.30
2017m8 3.87 6.38
2017m9 3.85 6.59
2017m10 3.82 6.89
2017m11 3.79 6.99
2017m12 3.76 6.89
2018m1 3.74 6.61
2018m2 3.74 6.83
2018m3 3.75 6.84
2018m4 3.77 6.85
2018m5 3.81 6.93
2018m6 3.86 6.65
2018m7 3.94 6.20
2018m8 4.02 5.26
2018m9 4.10 4.56
2018m10 4.17 4.11
2018m11 4.20 3.98
2018m12 4.20 4.14
2019m1 4.16 4.45
2019m2 4.09 4.07
2019m3 4.01 3.61
2019m4 3.93 3.27
2019m5 3.86 4.40
2019m6 3.82 4.95
2019m7 3.81 4.67
2019m8 3.80 3.38
2019m9 3.80 2.72
2019m10 3.79 2.66
2019m11 3.76 2.67
2019m12 3.72 3.33
2020m1 3.68 4.55
2020m2 3.63 5.38
2020m3 3.58 6.18
2020m4 3.49 5.88
2020m5 3.36 5.68
2020m6 3.18 5.74
2020m7 2.97 7.40
2020m8 2.75 9.58
2020m9 2.55 11.21
2020m10 2.39 12.32
2020m11 2.28 13.29
2020m12 2.20 13.71
2021m1 2.15 13.73
2021m2 2.12 14.43
2021m3 2.12 15.35
2021m4 2.13 17.21

Notes: Months' supply of existing homes for sale is from the National Association of Realtors, and is seasonally adjusted. Monthly house price growth is from Zillow, Inc. and is a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

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Figure 2: Active Inventory and Estimated Active Buyers

Monthly

Thousands

Month Inventory Buyers
2017m1 873380.0 646492.4
2017m2 895462.0 806011.7
2017m3 928157.0 791854.7
2017m4 964404.0 831830.1
2017m5 1005098.0 906604.3
2017m6 1034743.0 799470.4
2017m7 1038488.0 742170.1
2017m8 1027907.0 758102.2
2017m9 1010729.0 742347.6
2017m10 976875.0 694866.3
2017m11 917309.0 561371.5
2017m12 796537.0 489626.1
2018m1 803549.0 657780.5
2018m2 828748.0 812836.3
2018m3 866051.0 823655.4
2018m4 911511.0 869133.0
2018m5 958149.0 924607.0
2018m6 994626.0 885895.9
2018m7 1010074.0 813637.9
2018m8 1016460.0 667325.9
2018m9 1013456.0 618684.0
2018m10 1008986.0 627979.6
2018m11 959980.0 510754.9
2018m12 855372.0 521544.0
2019m1 863775.0 692347.9
2019m2 874353.0 717738.8
2019m3 900311.0 826029.9
2019m4 951174.0 948602.9
2019m5 985010.0 826848.8
2019m6 1008140.0 799023.2
2019m7 1010000.0 832825.2
2019m8 992917.0 728762.1
2019m9 981995.0 695835.6
2019m10 961823.0 679938.1
2019m11 896816.0 571024.6
2019m12 778840.0 574456.6
2020m1 768316.0 686248.8
2020m2 778788.0 654972.9
2020m3 816877.0 686373.2
2020m4 796926.0 760263.7
2020m5 791344.0 963843.4
2020m6 777044.0 1151740.0
2020m7 753610.0 1053821.0
2020m8 729977.0 1015294.0
2020m9 721052.0 1072529.0
2020m10 701766.0 1027067.0
2020m11 628005.0 930607.4
2020m12 543263.0 851553.8
2021m1 486425.0 895903.2
2021m2 458120.0 1001975.0
2021m3 455101.0  

Notes: Active listings inventory are data from Redfin. Stock of active buyers is estimated using the housing search model.

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Figure 3: New Listings and Estimated Net New Buyers

Monthly

Change from two years before (thousands)

Month New Listings New Buyers
2019m1 1912.00  
2019m2 -15758.00  
2019m3 -6611.00  
2019m4 17601.81 18924.78
2019m5 5503.00 4874.59
2019m6 2533.00 -2276.78
2019m7 -5486.81 -8828.00
2019m8 2638.00 14568.06
2019m9 21398.59 -10141.06
2019m10 7737.81 -35883.17
2019m11 18764.00 826.95
2019m12 -16488.80 48732.84
2020m1 -2862.00 17821.11
2020m2 -3226.00 -48278.00
2020m3 -25577.19 -99131.75
2020m4 -156551.80 -71673.16
2020m5 -98973.59 -9654.34
2020m6 -26425.00 94309.34
2020m7 3794.19 102335.80
2020m8 24402.19 128858.80
2020m9 43865.81 132374.40
2020m10 47454.00 124725.00
2020m11 30673.41 116921.00
2020m12 24998.59 59254.23
2021m1 -13479.20 -283.17
2021m2 -9544.00 8852.59
2021m3 -6015.00  

Note: New listings are data from Redfin. New buyers are the 3-month moving average of the net inflow of new buyers estimated using the housing search model.

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Figure 4: Counterfactual Monthly Sale Hazard

Monthly

Hazard Rate

Month Demand Varies Supply Varies Actual Data
2019m1 0.25 0.25 0.25
2019m2 0.32 0.32 0.32
2019m3 0.33 0.33 0.33
2019m4 0.36 0.36 0.36
2019m5 0.38 0.38 0.38
2019m6 0.33 0.33 0.33
2019m7 0.32 0.32 0.32
2019m8 0.33 0.33 0.33
2019m9 0.30 0.30 0.30
2019m10 0.29 0.29 0.29
2019m11 0.29 0.29 0.29
2019m12 0.26 0.26 0.26
2020m1 0.30 0.30 0.30
2020m2 0.35 0.35 0.35
2020m3 0.33 0.33 0.33
2020m4 0.31 0.35 0.33
2020m5 0.31 0.44 0.37
2020m6 0.34 0.42 0.44
2020m7 0.39 0.39 0.51
2020m8 0.39 0.40 0.49
2020m9 0.38 0.35 0.49
2020m10 0.43 0.31 0.51
2020m11 0.45 0.30 0.51
2020m12 0.46 0.28 0.51
2021m1 0.54 0.29 0.53
2021m2 0.56 0.36 0.59
2021m3 0.61 0.36 0.65

Notes: Actual monthly sale hazard rate is computed from Redfin data.

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Figure 5: Counterfactual Log House Price

Monthly

Log Price

Month Demand Varies Supply Varies Actual Data
2019m1 12.52 12.52 12.52
2019m2 12.51 12.51 12.51
2019m3 12.55 12.55 12.55
2019m4 12.57 12.57 12.57
2019m5 12.59 12.59 12.59
2019m6 12.62 12.62 12.62
2019m7 12.61 12.61 12.61
2019m8 12.60 12.60 12.60
2019m9 12.58 12.58 12.58
2019m10 12.58 12.58 12.58
2019m11 12.58 12.58 12.58
2019m12 12.59 12.59 12.59
2020m1 12.57 12.57 12.57
2020m2 12.57 12.57 12.57
2020m3 12.59 12.59 12.60
2020m4 12.60 12.60 12.61
2020m5 12.61 12.62 12.59
2020m6 12.63 12.67 12.63
2020m7 12.64 12.67 12.66
2020m8 12.66 12.66 12.69
2020m9 12.63 12.63 12.69
2020m10 12.64 12.63 12.70
2020m11 12.66 12.62 12.69
2020m12 12.68 12.63 12.69
2021m1 12.67 12.61 12.68
2021m2 12.67 12.60 12.69
2021m3 12.68 12.63 12.73

Notes: Actual log median real sale price is from Redfin.

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Last Update: July 08, 2021