Is the Inflation Process in Advanced Economies Different After the Pandemic? Accessible Data

Figure 1: 12-month Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies

Left
Headline Inflation
12-month percent change

Period U.K. U.S. Euro area Canada
1/15/2014 1.956745623 1.578947368 0.761354686 1.483924155
2/15/2014 1.738241309 1.12634925 0.706251635 1.140994295
3/15/2014 1.630988787 1.512202876 0.465356774 1.545972335
4/15/2014 1.831129196 1.952857899 0.711605641 2.037489813
5/15/2014 1.52284264 2.12711155 0.504071345 2.276422764
6/15/2014 1.932858596 2.072341373 0.490575781 2.357723577
7/15/2014 1.627670397 1.992328636 0.37642783 2.112103981
8/15/2014 1.519756839 1.699611334 0.362976407 2.112103981
9/15/2014 1.210898083 1.657918676 0.322539027 2.02757502
10/15/2014 1.311806256 1.664340216 0.387496771 2.357723577
11/15/2014 0.907258065 1.322355182 0.284384695 1.951219512
12/15/2014 0.502008032 0.75649327 -0.167461033 1.466992665
1/15/2015 0.303030303 -0.089348313 -0.599270453 0.974817222
2/15/2015 0 -0.025129802 -0.285714286 1.047542305
3/15/2015 0 -0.073637391 -0.064333505 1.201923077
4/15/2015 -0.1998002 -0.199517446 0.205549846 0.798722045
5/15/2015 0.1 -0.039932745 0.591563786 0.874403816
6/15/2015 0 0.123771204 0.501027749 1.032565528
7/15/2015 0.1001001 0.16956978 0.556058451 1.272871917
8/15/2015 0.099800399 0.195079293 0.439163007 1.272871917
9/15/2015 -0.099700897 -0.036129748 0.205761317 1.033386328
10/15/2015 -0.099601594 0.170574436 0.386001029 1.032565528
11/15/2015 0.1998002 0.501797579 0.128899201 1.355661882
12/15/2015 0.1998002 0.729519786 0.24516129 1.606425703
1/15/2016 0.201409869 1.373086814 0.327653997 2.011263073
2/15/2016 0.301507538 1.01779978 -0.130242251 1.355661882
3/15/2016 0.501504514 0.852536221 -0.038624952 1.26682502
4/15/2016 0.3003003 1.125110419 -0.256410256 1.664025357
5/15/2016 0.2997003 1.019322554 -0.115060087 1.497241923
6/15/2016 0.399201597 0.997326495 0.05113128 1.493710692
7/15/2016 0.6 0.82713887 0.16718107 1.256873527
8/15/2016 0.598205384 1.062874503 0.218621399 1.099764336
9/15/2016 0.898203593 1.463783647 0.397843943 1.337529504
10/15/2016 0.897308076 1.635987521 0.499871828 1.493710692
11/15/2016 1.09670987 1.692537163 0.579299691 1.180173092
12/15/2016 1.595214357 2.074622133 1.106963573 1.501976285
1/15/2017 1.909547739 2.500042209 1.724363161 2.129337539
2/15/2017 2.304609218 2.737958171 1.956181534 2.04563336
3/15/2017 2.295409182 2.380612433 1.532715095 1.563721658
4/15/2017 2.694610778 2.199689878 1.902313625 1.636788776
5/15/2017 2.888446215 1.874877721 1.382311532 1.319875776
6/15/2017 2.68389662 1.633487955 1.290405008 1.00697134
7/15/2017 2.584493042 1.727978456 1.335216331 1.163692785
8/15/2017 2.874132805 1.938974212 1.539843449 1.398601399
9/15/2017 2.96735905 2.232963865 1.559504027 1.552795031
10/15/2017 2.964426877 2.041128702 1.377375335 1.394268009
11/15/2017 3.15581854 2.202582939 1.535901702 2.099533437
12/15/2017 2.944062807 2.109082475 1.336728199 1.869158879
1/15/2018 2.958579882 2.07050762 1.297033517 1.698841699
2/15/2018 2.742409403 2.211795421 1.112816577 2.158828065
3/15/2018 2.43902439 2.359711404 1.39540784 2.309468822
4/15/2018 2.429543246 2.462743943 1.223511604 2.22392638
5/15/2018 2.420135528 2.801011715 1.956823633 2.222222222
6/15/2018 2.420135528 2.871547835 1.980322906 2.45398773
7/15/2018 2.519379845 2.949515087 2.191815533 2.990797546
8/15/2018 2.601156069 2.699180104 2.085176292 2.835249042
9/15/2018 2.401536984 2.276972194 2.076777848 2.217125382
10/15/2018 2.399232246 2.522469929 2.277015977 2.444614209
11/15/2018 2.294455067 2.176601032 1.916046893 1.675552171
12/15/2018 2.097235462 1.910158849 1.532663317 1.987767584
1/15/2019 1.819923372 1.551235138 1.394523327 1.442672741
2/15/2019 1.811248808 1.520135266 1.492726123 1.509433962
3/15/2019 1.904761905 1.862522741 1.401226073 1.881113619
4/15/2019 2.087286528 1.996439776 1.719626168 2.025506377
5/15/2019 1.984877127 1.790228469 1.213472016 2.3988006
6/15/2019 1.984877127 1.648484656 1.261595547 2.020958084
7/15/2019 1.984877127 1.811464806 1.029010662 2.010424423
8/15/2019 1.784037559 1.749779889 1.015102748 1.937406855
9/15/2019 1.782363977 1.711304513 0.838471023 1.869857891
10/15/2019 1.499531396 1.764042944 0.725707257 1.864280388
11/15/2019 1.401869159 2.051277982 0.964749536 2.172284644
12/15/2019 1.307189542 2.28512974 1.32392972 2.248875562
1/15/2020 1.787394167 2.486571955 1.36284071 2.395209581
2/15/2020 1.685393258 2.334873564 1.221488221 2.156133829
3/15/2020 1.495327103 1.539326992 0.740283775 0.886262925
4/15/2020 0.836431227 0.329096686 0.318510352 -0.220588235
5/15/2020 0.556070436 0.11792637 0.085637387 -0.366032211
6/15/2020 0.648748842 0.645733048 0.2687187 0.660308144
7/15/2020 1.112140871 0.986081825 0.380414775 0.145985401
8/15/2020 0.184501845 1.309645382 -0.171568627 0.14619883
9/15/2020 0.552995392 1.371324861 -0.317926143 0.513950073
10/15/2020 0.738688827 1.182066168 -0.268653071 0.65885798
11/15/2020 0.368663594 1.174535784 -0.281759157 0.953079179
12/15/2020 0.64516129 1.362005495 -0.268653071 0.73313783
1/15/2021 0.739371534 1.399769742 0.900456396 1.023391813
2/15/2021 0.460405157 1.676215217 0.935845339 1.091703057
3/15/2021 0.73664825 2.619762509 1.33496632 2.196193265
4/15/2021 1.474654378 4.159694839 1.611918427 3.389830508
5/15/2021 2.119815668 4.992706538 1.98019802 3.600293902
6/15/2021 2.486187845 5.391451413 1.900353271 3.06122449
7/15/2021 2.016498625 5.365475239 2.17603912 3.717201166
8/15/2021 3.222836096 5.251271555 2.958507243 4.087591241
9/15/2021 3.024747938 5.390348855 3.361138371 4.38276114
10/15/2021 4.124656279 6.221868903 4.0528958 4.654545455
11/15/2021 5.142332415 6.80900284 4.864864865 4.720406681
12/15/2021 5.402930403 7.036402866 4.958981266 4.80349345
1/15/2022 5.412844037 7.479872468 5.11002445 5.13748191
2/15/2022 6.141154904 7.871063898 5.880200073 5.687544996
3/15/2022 7.038391225 8.542455555 7.44500846 6.661891117
4/15/2022 8.991825613 8.258629341 7.451027521 6.771204562
5/15/2022 9.025270758 8.581511544 8.054656598 7.730496454
6/15/2022 9.433962264 9.059757965 8.643156007 8.132956153
7/15/2022 10.06289308 8.524814746 8.853792773 7.589599438
8/15/2022 9.812667261 8.262692503 9.133182306 7.012622721
9/15/2022 10.14234875 8.201669644 9.933539046 6.857942617
10/15/2022 11.0915493 7.745427331 10.61426218 6.879777623
11/15/2022 10.65502183 7.110322794 10.05154639 6.796116505
12/15/2022 10.51259774 6.454401331 9.204386374 6.319444444
1/15/2023 10.00870322 6.410146969 8.641544545 5.918788713
2/15/2023 10.44905009 6.035613078 8.503283788 5.245231608
3/15/2023 10.07685739 4.984974122 6.884139483 4.298186702
4/15/2023 8.666666667 4.930320398 6.94553182 4.405874499
5/15/2023 8.69205298 4.047609273 6.100942873 3.357472021
6/15/2023 7.963875205 2.969177655 5.523767606 2.812295618
7/15/2023 6.857142857 3.177780178 5.30885909 3.265839321
8/15/2023 6.661251015 3.665112384 5.244182235 3.997378768
9/15/2023 6.62358643 3.699698121 4.329051063 3.798297315
10/15/2023 4.595879556 3.241144652 2.904255319 3.120936281
11/15/2023 3.946329913 3.137270709 2.395145838 3.116883117
12/15/2023 3.93081761 3.352122831 2.92703771 3.396472894
1/15/2024 4.034810127 3.090884781 2.772722407 2.85899935
2/15/2024 3.440187647 3.153171121 2.58043963 2.783171521
3/15/2024 3.180760279 3.47738507 2.431067144 2.897617514
4/15/2024 2.377300613 3.35736395 2.373980339 2.685421995
5/15/2024 1.98019802 3.269029057 2.56142185 2.866242038
6/15/2024 1.977186312 2.971397107 2.513034411 2.671755725
7/15/2024 2.215431627 2.894753198 2.58845632 2.530044276
8/15/2024 2.284843869 2.530730296 2.169625247 1.953371141
9/15/2024 1.666666667 2.440633031 1.748758278 1.640378549
10/15/2024 2.272727273 2.597904905 2.005582549 2.017654477
11/15/2024 2.581624905 2.749380396 2.245555671 1.889168766
12/15/2024 2.571860817 2.88805722 2.428645563 1.831964624
1/15/2025 2.965779468 3.000483112 2.520833333 1.895135818
2/15/2025 2.796674225 2.821548952 2.31884058 2.644836272
3/15/2025 2.631578947 2.390725254 2.178156786 2.315394243
4/15/2025 3.520599251 2.311288862 2.16569619 1.743462017
5/15/2025 3.360716953 2.354896535 1.896024465 1.73374613
6/15/2025 3.579418345 2.669213018 1.983521514 1.858736059
7/15/2025 3.886397608 2.704902397 2.034794994 1.727328809
8/15/2025 3.723008191 2.916174284 2.042267832 1.854140915
9/15/2025 3.800298063 3.012676776 2.227194142 2.358783364
10/15/2025 3.555555556 2.785063429 2.097902098 2.1631644
11/15/2025 3.25684678 2.735084455 2.135231317 2.224969098
12/15/2025 3.318584071 2.677080528 1.965751343 2.357320099
1/15/2026 3.028064993 2.386431245 1.656167446 2.293862368

Right
Core Inflation
12-month percent change

Period U.K. U.S. Euro area Canada
1/15/2014 1.564129301 1.621245877 0.822160385 1.207937877
2/15/2014 1.763485477 1.567340125 0.970873786 1.112061591
3/15/2014 1.547987616 1.656711807 0.718978555 1.194539249
4/15/2014 2.06185567 1.832049941 1.004464286 1.365187713
5/15/2014 1.540041068 1.956207006 0.668316832 1.534526854
6/15/2014 2.057613169 1.933316213 0.76704194 1.62116041
7/15/2014 1.855670103 1.858917328 0.786124283 1.537147737
8/15/2014 1.846153846 1.723740491 0.946686597 1.964133219
9/15/2014 1.532175689 1.728837816 0.766662545 1.872340426
10/15/2014 1.529051988 1.807690018 0.716845878 2.037351443
11/15/2014 1.221995927 1.702494867 0.667573248 1.957446809
12/15/2014 1.219512195 1.606382979 0.752065097 1.878736123
1/15/2015 1.437371663 1.648914249 0.627273868 1.875532822
2/15/2015 1.22324159 1.697765541 0.699300699 1.776649746
3/15/2015 1.117886179 1.753386264 0.64 2.023608769
4/15/2015 0.707070707 1.807510452 0.920810313 1.851851852
5/15/2015 1.011122346 1.718278025 1.278583723 1.847187238
6/15/2015 0.705645161 1.762282864 1.190914672 1.847187238
7/15/2015 1.113360324 1.804835851 1.411415129 2.018502944
8/15/2015 1.007049345 1.827559002 1.382033564 1.75879397
9/15/2015 1.006036217 1.891635021 1.300773101 1.837928154
10/15/2015 1.104417671 1.909670736 1.448030433 1.663893511
11/15/2015 1.307847082 2.017571725 0.8964755 1.752921536
12/15/2015 1.40562249 2.095696786 0.905531082 1.676445935
1/15/2016 1.214574899 2.206915 0.997381873 1.757322176
2/15/2016 1.10775428 2.3312771 0.868055556 1.662510391
3/15/2016 1.507537688 2.194825505 1.03950104 1.73553719
4/15/2016 1.203610832 2.146384232 0.729927007 1.900826446
5/15/2016 1.201201201 2.240633738 0.801165331 2.061005771
6/15/2016 1.401401401 2.244650387 0.800776511 2.143446002
7/15/2016 1.301301301 2.189443812 0.86680503 2.061005771
8/15/2016 1.296111665 2.318968395 0.791139241 1.893004115
9/15/2016 1.494023904 2.207438393 0.787401575 1.968826907
10/15/2016 1.191658391 2.144803984 0.749969759 1.882160393
11/15/2016 1.390268123 2.11082659 0.803310613 1.722723544
12/15/2016 1.584158416 2.196661731 0.848896435 1.813685078
1/15/2017 1.6 2.271723484 0.864090853 2.220394737
2/15/2017 1.992031873 2.223624227 0.823702975 2.04415372
3/15/2017 1.782178218 2.001964621 0.689905592 1.705930138
4/15/2017 2.477700694 1.88265207 1.256038647 1.540957015
5/15/2017 2.571711177 1.733429209 0.927263969 1.373182553
6/15/2017 2.467917078 1.703027515 1.191622532 1.372074253
7/15/2017 2.470355731 1.692069233 1.198257081 1.453957997
8/15/2017 2.657480315 1.684402162 1.231735298 1.453957997
9/15/2017 2.649656526 1.692591595 1.153846154 1.206757844
10/15/2017 2.649656526 1.773547657 0.876455757 1.365461847
11/15/2017 2.742409403 1.711291313 0.917652741 1.774193548
12/15/2017 2.53411306 1.775751202 0.925925926 1.700404858
1/15/2018 2.657480315 1.821395297 0.966833925 1.528559936
2/15/2018 2.44140625 1.847552988 0.987684429 1.842948718
3/15/2018 2.237354086 2.117075888 1.105902152 1.916932907
4/15/2018 2.030947776 2.139150062 0.715648855 1.837060703
5/15/2018 2.121504339 2.237179105 1.21703854 1.673306773
6/15/2018 1.83044316 2.255033451 0.951587962 1.751592357
7/15/2018 1.832208293 2.354169313 1.136227724 2.308917197
8/15/2018 2.109300096 2.199160263 1.025885721 2.308917197
9/15/2018 1.816443595 2.169675932 0.938688213 1.828298887
10/15/2018 1.816443595 2.13887509 1.166388955 2.06022187
11/15/2018 1.811248808 2.214271062 0.921273032 1.743264659
12/15/2018 1.901140684 2.178988634 0.917431193 2.308917197
1/15/2019 1.917545542 2.153645567 1.115151515 1.901743265
2/15/2019 1.906577693 2.08418855 1.002173388 1.966955153
3/15/2019 1.902949572 2.036553525 0.760908334 1.880877743
4/15/2019 1.800947867 2.064779691 1.290857414 2.039215686
5/15/2019 1.699716714 1.988977314 0.778026642 2.429467085
6/15/2019 1.797540208 2.126528442 1.11935902 2.34741784
7/15/2019 1.988636364 2.21005402 0.863292337 2.178988327
8/15/2019 1.502347418 2.386323117 0.944621561 2.178988327
9/15/2019 1.690140845 2.357707533 1.012360212 2.107728337
10/15/2019 1.784037559 2.31449493 1.070588235 2.01863354
11/15/2019 1.685393258 2.316821366 1.304090101 2.024922118
12/15/2019 1.305970149 2.258735618 1.286894923 1.789883268
1/15/2020 1.599247413 2.261246646 1.0908655 1.866251944
2/15/2020 1.590271282 2.356824988 1.207411835 1.929012346
3/15/2020 1.587301587 2.091385447 1.038348083 1.692307692
4/15/2020 1.396648045 1.432154674 0.853501695 1.306687164
5/15/2020 1.207056639 1.222057199 0.900690139 0.612088753
6/15/2020 1.486988848 1.187413794 0.827312981 0.993883792
7/15/2020 1.857010214 1.569625824 1.184195099 0.456968774
8/15/2020 0.832562442 1.736388448 0.374312785 0.456968774
9/15/2020 1.292705448 1.713279047 0.209765762 0.840978593
10/15/2020 1.383763838 1.610584813 0.221161681 0.837138508
11/15/2020 1.104972376 1.646498785 0.245757753 1.297709924
12/15/2020 1.38121547 1.619642554 0.221471034 1.070336391
1/15/2021 1.481481481 1.410129171 1.411122969 1.374045802
2/15/2021 0.920810313 1.28260772 1.110323648 0.757002271
3/15/2021 1.102941176 1.646390734 0.934252014 0.907715582
4/15/2021 1.285583104 2.961039351 0.730350104 1.820940819
5/15/2021 1.926605505 3.797606462 0.939021563 2.357414449
6/15/2021 2.289377289 4.474619042 0.878308101 2.195306586
7/15/2021 1.823154057 4.274513173 0.706836616 2.805155421
8/15/2021 3.211009174 4.000282784 1.549935905 3.032600455
9/15/2021 2.91704649 4.025214269 1.872310734 3.260045489
10/15/2021 3.457688808 4.562837878 2.044134727 3.245283019
11/15/2021 4.007285974 4.928508608 2.603315433 3.089675961
12/15/2021 4.268846503 5.453410889 2.62851826 3.403933434
1/15/2022 4.379562044 6.020648366 2.26847521 3.539156627
2/15/2022 5.200729927 6.414206342 2.721962617 3.906836965
3/15/2022 5.727272727 6.474478586 2.950364457 4.647676162
4/15/2022 6.165004533 6.160573498 3.487167683 4.619970194
5/15/2022 5.940594059 6.021537335 3.755598943 5.200594354
6/15/2022 5.81915846 5.916942829 3.734677512 5.333333333
7/15/2022 6.177260519 5.910885343 4.015648372 5.530973451
8/15/2022 6.222222222 6.322203022 4.303419784 5.298013245
9/15/2022 6.465899026 6.630604107 4.748858447 5.43318649
10/15/2022 6.420404573 6.28442175 5.019348964 5.33625731
11/15/2022 6.304728546 5.957829067 4.983502105 5.409356725
12/15/2022 6.358885017 5.707834932 5.179057117 5.340160936
1/15/2023 5.769230769 5.582595561 5.293848617 4.945454545
2/15/2023 6.157849089 5.537754418 5.606732628 4.844540853
3/15/2023 6.190885641 5.589602668 5.664194201 4.512893983
4/15/2023 6.83176772 5.519415773 5.59386121 4.415954416
5/15/2023 7.136788445 5.329805201 5.346468895 3.95480226
6/15/2023 6.852791878 4.828967015 5.477636665 3.516174402
7/15/2023 6.829679595 4.652861869 5.497787611 3.424178896
8/15/2023 6.192468619 4.349245233 5.281109033 3.633822502
9/15/2023 6.073211314 4.146534335 4.522667829 3.203342618
10/15/2023 5.702479339 4.030870488 4.183374878 3.400416378
11/15/2023 5.10708402 4.007343124 3.565622629 3.536754508
12/15/2023 5.077805078 3.929853089 3.426354919 3.402777778
1/15/2024 5.041322314 3.861744193 3.257682702 3.118503119
2/15/2024 4.493464052 3.752495798 3.101443033 2.827586207
3/15/2024 4.210526316 3.801280624 2.946181663 2.87868403
4/15/2024 3.836930456 3.609982437 2.654028436 2.660300136
5/15/2024 3.489294211 3.418739614 2.858043501 2.85326087
6/15/2024 3.562945368 3.267294681 2.858339441 2.85326087
7/15/2024 3.314917127 3.171278789 2.841564433 2.702702703
8/15/2024 3.624901497 3.197002286 2.832061866 2.360080917
9/15/2024 3.215686275 3.311273193 2.669169013 2.361673414
10/15/2024 3.283815481 3.332905132 2.683865599 2.281879195
11/15/2024 3.526645768 3.318613891 2.710339054 1.942397857
12/15/2024 3.19563523 3.238144703 2.708615481 2.149093351
1/15/2025 3.776553895 3.258370719 2.702702703 2.150537634
2/15/2025 3.518373729 3.117440611 2.559013996 2.88397049
3/15/2025 3.418803419 2.789446463 2.42793677 2.398401066
4/15/2025 3.849114704 2.779123084 2.749563968 2.591362126
5/15/2025 3.524904215 2.786940297 2.278067218 2.575957728
6/15/2025 3.669724771 2.934455162 2.300488599 2.642007926
7/15/2025 3.743315508 3.059389626 2.314437194 2.5
8/15/2025 3.574144487 3.110147273 2.276422764 2.437417655
9/15/2025 3.495440729 3.019224002 2.356047527 2.43902439
10/15/2025 3.40651022 2.751569019 2.39084186 2.690288714
11/15/2025 3.179409538 2.633352695 2.414671421 2.431011827
12/15/2025 3.247734139 2.639383616 2.322750786 2.498356345
1/15/2026 3.032600455 2.503690071 2.181036248 2.368421053

Note: Headline and core inflation are measured by the CPI indexes for the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. and the HICP indexes for the euro area. Core CPI includes all items less food and energy for the U.S. and Canada and all items less food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco for the U.K. and euro area. Data extend through January 0226 for all countries. Missing U.S. CPI Data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 2: Diffusion Indexes for 12-month Headline Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies

Top Left
United States
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 14.3657519 73.56357488 12.07067322
2/15/2014 15.16982642 64.4480016 20.38217198
3/15/2014 16.63914988 61.48650677 21.87434335
4/15/2014 21.36782069 63.69021413 14.94196518
5/15/2014 26.41146985 60.701958 12.88657215
6/15/2014 26.32142393 57.77246396 15.90611212
7/15/2014 25.5255706 61.71864838 12.75578103
8/15/2014 24.37294274 56.94690398 18.68015328
9/15/2014 21.69571569 56.18133792 22.12294639
10/15/2014 25.51856633 52.70314892 21.77828475
11/15/2014 25.44945225 53.85223351 20.69831424
12/15/2014 30.57537042 49.68435165 19.74027793
1/15/2015 27.82558233 52.04114304 20.13327463
2/15/2015 28.29367382 52.25648928 19.44983689
3/15/2015 24.81164641 55.0572815 20.13107209
4/15/2015 27.26745117 52.49459654 20.23795229
5/15/2015 23.9192651 52.50370252 23.57703238
6/15/2015 24.20552331 49.34160496 26.45287172
7/15/2015 23.2306553 51.06781154 25.70153317
8/15/2015 48.68502692 24.88441447 26.43055861
9/15/2015 49.97948585 24.69904234 25.32147182
10/15/2015 45.59391574 28.66906835 25.73701591
11/15/2015 47.35067196 28.52167996 24.12764808
12/15/2015 45.5066194 34.62116205 19.87221855
1/15/2016 46.2770112 33.0793263 20.64366251
2/15/2016 51.90177659 28.04194123 20.05628217
3/15/2016 48.98110411 28.22466779 22.79422809
4/15/2016 48.98459875 28.43824478 22.57715648
5/15/2016 50.01051504 22.61634137 27.3731436
6/15/2016 48.58848153 24.42392621 26.98759226
7/15/2016 47.51694924 24.82950619 27.65354457
8/15/2016 47.7703562 28.27386615 23.95577765
9/15/2016 47.92841334 26.98821244 25.08337423
10/15/2016 49.30150115 27.60948156 23.08901729
11/15/2016 49.38464466 30.74373379 19.87162155
12/15/2016 53.29307738 27.83168604 18.87523658
1/15/2017 53.94160949 27.23621614 18.82217437
2/15/2017 54.25721553 25.18076392 20.56202055
3/15/2017 53.93359708 26.26571185 19.80069107
4/15/2017 51.2479218 29.12585381 19.62622439
5/15/2017 49.76314234 32.45100101 17.78585664
6/15/2017 44.57208673 32.8008413 22.62707196
7/15/2017 48.2392885 28.55297158 23.20773992
8/15/2017 46.87653369 31.22464719 21.89881912
9/15/2017 47.00438676 31.08887687 21.90673637
10/15/2017 49.76964064 28.59761228 21.63274709
11/15/2017 49.1841702 27.88845819 22.92737162
12/15/2017 47.92642877 26.92438624 25.14918499
1/15/2018 47.71077582 28.98649393 23.30273025
2/15/2018 50.35390699 25.21299494 24.43309806
3/15/2018 47.56998678 33.08802916 19.34198406
4/15/2018 47.42269073 33.36536825 19.21194102
5/15/2018 49.82880827 28.86332693 21.30786481
6/15/2018 49.6756497 29.85824691 20.46610339
7/15/2018 49.54249675 36.92061267 13.53689058
8/15/2018 47.66128709 38.83504866 13.50366425
9/15/2018 47.5337131 36.88267743 15.58360948
10/15/2018 48.54525431 38.32699239 13.1277533
11/15/2018 52.48598318 34.00981177 13.50420505
12/15/2018 48.96931471 30.79841818 20.23226711
1/15/2019 45.77046686 38.5328541 15.69667905
2/15/2019 46.51276866 33.95333006 19.53390127
3/15/2019 47.53814425 34.40290737 18.05894838
4/15/2019 51.12076647 37.0228358 11.85639773
5/15/2019 43.39486646 36.70764426 19.89748929
6/15/2019 49.00194206 33.10909564 17.8889623
7/15/2019 49.26173959 33.64565502 17.09260538
8/15/2019 46.76578065 35.83320819 17.40101116
9/15/2019 44.92496822 39.48503869 15.58999309
10/15/2019 50.05205622 34.9937933 14.95415048
11/15/2019 48.9443282 31.24067715 19.81499464
12/15/2019 52.75728661 30.86637534 16.37633805
1/15/2020 50.12881302 33.36908688 16.5021001
2/15/2020 53.2546158 33.29891947 13.44646473
3/15/2020 49.51532223 31.75616749 18.72851028
4/15/2020 52.48378397 24.9140325 22.60218352
5/15/2020 54.00070179 20.33786155 25.66143666
6/15/2020 28.11680187 50.04439601 21.83880211
7/15/2020 30.05864368 48.99503784 20.94631848
8/15/2020 24.3248391 57.61372978 18.06143112
9/15/2020 24.14304449 62.70957329 13.14738223
10/15/2020 22.43678996 63.32909579 14.23411425
11/15/2020 22.65584789 61.7750058 15.56914631
12/15/2020 24.68115826 59.85301195 15.46582979
1/15/2021 26.33006889 57.61833201 16.05159911
2/15/2021 24.77986787 60.70906248 14.51106965
3/15/2021 31.88323936 53.88983589 14.22692475
4/15/2021 35.0627995 54.40403531 10.5331652
5/15/2021 40.2455758 50.24214541 9.51227879
6/15/2021 42.51102433 48.27193009 9.217045581
7/15/2021 42.03628219 52.58293648 5.380781338
8/15/2021 43.96509106 49.23472734 6.800181607
9/15/2021 46.5464708 48.28080229 5.172726906
10/15/2021 73.96230603 21.5035212 4.534172771
11/15/2021 80.28274185 15.05635665 4.660901505
12/15/2021 79.3100345 15.94820259 4.741762912
1/15/2022 82.63480355 15.60337733 1.761819124
2/15/2022 83.89066087 14.60699267 1.502346464
3/15/2022 86.35901155 11.60405774 2.036930702
4/15/2022 85.18145263 13.09119494 1.727352434
5/15/2022 85.93792173 11.40500825 2.657070025
6/15/2022 87.05275252 9.030619444 3.916628031
7/15/2022 86.76181549 9.365708123 3.872476389
8/15/2022 86.4444534 9.600459613 3.955086984
9/15/2022 85.58648608 7.938427708 6.475086211
10/15/2022 82.761882 13.34275648 3.895361527
11/15/2022 80.01954916 13.84967301 6.130777835
12/15/2022 78.22423266 12.58268867 9.193078671
1/15/2023 78.52325957 15.79308674 5.683653691
2/15/2023 76.64684563 12.78204598 10.5711084
3/15/2023 74.91293731 12.47798415 12.60907854
4/15/2023 74.3203082 12.04883174 13.63086006
5/15/2023 75.38500025 8.941812178 15.67318757
6/15/2023 76.44975033 9.297415216 14.25283446
7/15/2023 73.8832406 9.698595045 16.41816435
8/15/2023 62.92496744 21.31829518 15.75673738
9/15/2023 68.35980107 16.87230444 14.76789449
10/15/2023 63.25781083 17.84969428 18.89249489
11/15/2023 65.91920035 14.58628096 19.49451869
12/15/2023 65.08063548 14.11721157 20.80215295
1/15/2024 64.23199131 17.42247516 18.34553352
2/15/2024 63.19075492 15.76367002 21.04557507
3/15/2024 63.3795025 15.1784906 21.4420069
4/15/2024 63.71397971 15.56803945 20.71798084
5/15/2024 62.01877171 17.70513784 20.27609045
6/15/2024 61.77362987 16.28731362 21.93905651
7/15/2024 61.42403969 14.72741322 23.84854709
8/15/2024 58.62414259 18.57808041 22.797777
9/15/2024 59.89640953 18.79814945 21.30544101
10/15/2024 62.25600276 15.61582311 22.12817412
11/15/2024 62.77968582 17.05041966 20.16989453
12/15/2024 57.538634 20.62214749 21.83921851
1/15/2025 55.60915175 26.48949458 17.90135367
2/15/2025 59.04959223 21.29124646 19.65916131
3/15/2025 57.46755546 22.29392784 20.23851671
4/15/2025 60.2905471 24.78856426 14.92088864
5/15/2025 59.14434283 25.75267077 15.1029864
6/15/2025 61.98767693 22.73394106 15.27838202
7/15/2025 68.03000845 20.17325095 11.7967406
8/15/2025 68.00566001 16.93422781 15.06011218
9/15/2025 68.34774256 21.8120874 9.840170049
10/15/2025 61.57529189 23.92548875 14.49921936
11/15/2025 51.81169757 34.77073568 13.41756674
12/15/2025 53.84515446 32.14239314 14.0124524
1/15/2026 56.26807073 28.20707916 15.52485011

Top Right
Canada
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 24.76564862 56.54671908 18.6876323
2/15/2014 21.89295434 49.4808991 28.62614656
3/15/2014 22.84043947 51.42626751 25.73329301
4/15/2014 28.2229614 49.66233243 22.11470618
5/15/2014 28.21288177 55.45811914 16.32899909
6/15/2014 29.94657797 54.89365991 15.15976212
7/15/2014 20.34069146 64.51970567 15.13960286
8/15/2014 23.3343413 57.41356718 19.25209152
9/15/2014 25.6224171 52.50478782 21.87279508
10/15/2014 25.22931156 60.56849108 14.20219736
11/15/2014 24.26166717 57.81675234 17.92158049
12/15/2014 23.04203205 59.02630783 17.93166011
1/15/2015 25.46132903 59.57446809 14.96420288
2/15/2015 28.43601896 47.27236059 24.29162045
3/15/2015 23.78743572 59.32237572 16.89018857
4/15/2015 20.94383382 62.70041343 16.35575275
5/15/2015 24.69496824 59.3627105 15.94232127
6/15/2015 27.83099728 55.05697287 17.11202985
7/15/2015 27.61923969 57.80982152 14.57093879
8/15/2015 24.9470606 60.84501361 14.20792578
9/15/2015 20.57073712 63.21468186 16.21458102
10/15/2015 19.96571544 64.69698498 15.33729959
11/15/2015 23.71684985 57.61823132 18.66491883
12/15/2015 27.0243017 50.75123525 22.22446304
1/15/2016 28.67802763 48.73449632 22.58747605
2/15/2016 27.43773319 47.27236059 25.28990622
3/15/2016 27.972169 47.01018453 25.01764647
4/15/2016 25.98568115 50.38822224 23.6260966
5/15/2016 24.05969547 58.37450842 17.56579611
6/15/2016 27.94191792 52.45537965 19.60270243
7/15/2016 28.58727438 48.80508218 22.60764344
8/15/2016 27.32681254 46.92951497 25.74367248
9/15/2016 24.30170414 50.81173742 24.88655844
10/15/2016 24.64454976 53.26207522 22.09337501
11/15/2016 25.74367248 45.84047595 28.41585157
12/15/2016 22.50680649 55.51073913 21.98245437
1/15/2017 33.05494063 46.45803985 20.48701952
2/15/2017 35.72147313 39.38418193 24.89434494
3/15/2017 25.66914872 47.34352989 26.98732139
4/15/2017 25.3773395 52.95834172 21.66431878
5/15/2017 21.29201046 56.44998994 22.2579996
6/15/2017 20.28577179 48.06802173 31.64620648
7/15/2017 20.63795532 57.9291608 21.43288388
8/15/2017 25.21634132 52.56590863 22.21775005
9/15/2017 21.77500503 58.55302878 19.67196619
10/15/2017 20.66814248 59.28758301 20.0442745
11/15/2017 31.75689273 53.39102435 14.85208291
12/15/2017 31.27389817 52.83759308 15.88850875
1/15/2018 25.00503119 55.97705776 19.01791105
2/15/2018 27.60112699 57.32541759 15.07345542
3/15/2018 25.02515597 56.0978064 18.87703763
4/15/2018 26.07164419 56.82229825 17.10605756
5/15/2018 24.6226605 57.37572952 18.00160998
6/15/2018 26.17226806 56.11793117 17.70980076
7/15/2018 31.75689273 52.53572147 15.70738579
8/15/2018 31.77701751 52.02253975 16.20044275
9/15/2018 32.34051117 52.93821695 14.72127189
10/15/2018 33.90018112 51.46910847 14.6307104
11/15/2018 29.37210706 51.52948279 19.09841014
12/15/2018 35.46991346 47.1020326 17.42805393
1/15/2019 28.63213274 52.95426953 18.41359773
2/15/2019 22.71347633 56.35370295 20.93282072
3/15/2019 22.81464994 63.48644274 13.69890732
4/15/2019 27.7519223 55.32173209 16.92634561
5/15/2019 37.50505868 51.93241603 10.56252529
6/15/2019 30.6859571 52.53945771 16.77458519
7/15/2019 28.12626467 53.48037232 18.39336301
8/15/2019 34.43949818 48.85673816 16.70376366
9/15/2019 34.69243221 44.99190611 20.31566168
10/15/2019 35.15783084 41.44071226 23.4014569
11/15/2019 31.91015783 56.54593282 11.54390935
12/15/2019 34.51031971 48.51274788 16.97693242
1/15/2020 28.24767301 59.08539053 12.66693646
2/15/2020 28.01497369 59.67219749 12.31282881
3/15/2020 20.85188183 59.97571833 19.17239984
4/15/2020 22.78429786 54.22905706 22.98664508
5/15/2020 23.50263051 52.25617159 24.2411979
6/15/2020 18.67664913 59.86442736 21.45892351
7/15/2020 22.89558883 54.44152165 22.66288952
8/15/2020 14.1238365 62.23188992 23.64427357
9/15/2020 13.65843788 64.06313234 22.27842979
10/15/2020 23.0878187 54.62363416 22.28854715
11/15/2020 22.6426548 49.43342776 27.92391744
12/15/2020 23.64427357 49.82800486 26.52772157
1/15/2021 20.52812626 50.84985836 28.62201538
2/15/2021 26.26467017 50.34399029 23.39133954
3/15/2021 35.62322946 43.7373533 20.63941724
4/15/2021 37.18130312 44.74908944 18.06960745
5/15/2021 43.85876163 35.80534197 20.3358964
6/15/2021 44.39947384 36.63867247 18.96185369
7/15/2021 47.31356875 37.8427603 14.84367095
8/15/2021 53.16199535 30.57775979 16.26024486
9/15/2021 50.21754528 36.01133259 13.77112213
10/15/2021 55.48922392 29.57603966 14.93473642
11/15/2021 60.03237883 25.67034301 14.29727815
12/15/2021 60.29545685 28.15946575 11.54507741
1/15/2022 69.20975412 18.93149853 11.85874734
2/15/2022 69.50318729 18.91126176 11.58555095
3/15/2022 67.84377213 19.05291915 13.10330871
4/15/2022 72.73095214 12.60750784 14.66154002
5/15/2022 77.40072934 13.7560778 8.843192869
6/15/2022 78.30226904 13.01661264 8.681118314
7/15/2022 77.92747164 16.67341977 5.39910859
8/15/2022 82.24270665 12.46961102 5.287682334
9/15/2022 82.69854133 11.17301459 6.128444084
10/15/2022 86.57820097 6.797001621 6.624797407
11/15/2022 85.67666126 8.964748784 5.358589951
12/15/2022 80.27755267 14.7589141 4.963533225
1/15/2023 75.80024311 13.90802269 10.2917342
2/15/2023 75.61790924 11.03119935 13.35089141
3/15/2023 68.1726094 15.31604538 16.51134522
4/15/2023 66.14667747 18.06118314 15.79213938
5/15/2023 66.95918367 11.81632653 21.2244898
6/15/2023 61.5 14.98979592 23.51020408
7/15/2023 55.81632653 19.25510204 24.92857143
8/15/2023 60.03061224 20.90816327 19.06122449
9/15/2023 59.70408163 24.8877551 15.40816327
10/15/2023 55.68367347 22.37755102 21.93877551
11/15/2023 53.60204082 24.32653061 22.07142857
12/15/2023 52.78571429 30.93877551 16.2755102
1/15/2024 49.74489796 28.17346939 22.08163265
2/15/2024 48.25510204 31.20408163 20.54081633
3/15/2024 48.74489796 28.15306122 23.10204082
4/15/2024 47.10204082 28.80612245 24.09183673
5/15/2024 49.84678243 28.25331971 21.89989785
6/15/2024 40.8784474 30.46986721 28.65168539
7/15/2024 38.4473953 26.54749745 35.00510725
8/15/2024 39.17262513 21.7875383 39.03983657
9/15/2024 40.41879469 23.1154239 36.46578141
10/15/2024 40.92951992 23.92236977 35.14811032
11/15/2024 36.86414709 27.13993871 35.9959142
12/15/2024 36.83350358 26.73135853 36.4351379
1/15/2025 41.06230848 30.97037794 27.96731359
2/15/2025 43.61593463 30.23493361 26.14913177
3/15/2025 43.13585291 38.91726251 17.94688458
4/15/2025 49.08069459 31.65474974 19.26455567
5/15/2025 48.17533129 30.68297655 21.14169215
6/15/2025 49.20489297 31.75331295 19.04179409
7/15/2025 50.82568807 27.78797146 21.38634047
8/15/2025 49.80632008 29.44954128 20.74413863
9/15/2025 50 30.18348624 19.81651376
10/15/2025 44.09785933 32.83384302 23.06829766
11/15/2025 49.14373089 29.39857288 21.45769623
12/15/2025 52.01834862 25.86136595 22.12028542
1/15/2026 44.98470948 32.44648318 22.56880734

Bottom Left
U.K.
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 13.7 66.6 19.7
2/15/2014 18.6 57.1 24.3
3/15/2014 18.3 63.4 18.3
4/15/2014 18.9 62.1 19
5/15/2014 12.7 56.6 30.7
6/15/2014 18.6 64.6 16.8
7/15/2014 20.5 54.1 25.4
8/15/2014 18 57.8 24.2
9/15/2014 19.2 54.7 26.1
10/15/2014 17.3 48.8 33.9
11/15/2014 17.3 45.8 36.9
12/15/2014 16.1 44.4 39.5
1/15/2015 14.1 51.4 34.5
2/15/2015 14.9 48.1 37
3/15/2015 14 42.2 43.8
4/15/2015 10.8 41.9 47.3
5/15/2015 14.7 49.3 36
6/15/2015 14.4 42.1 43.5
7/15/2015 14 48 38
8/15/2015 12.7 49.1 38.2
9/15/2015 12.4 45.8 41.8
10/15/2015 12.9 51.1 36
11/15/2015 20.5 44.2 35.3
12/15/2015 14.1 43.7 42.2
1/15/2016 11.9 57.2 30.9
2/15/2016 11.1 55.2 33.7
3/15/2016 12.3 57.8 29.9
4/15/2016 15.4 52 32.6
5/15/2016 15.6 46.2 38.2
6/15/2016 20.7 38.7 40.6
7/15/2016 20.2 32.1 47.7
8/15/2016 19 38.9 42.1
9/15/2016 21.9 45.7 32.4
10/15/2016 23.4 35 41.6
11/15/2016 20 47.6 32.4
12/15/2016 20.6 50.8 28.6
1/15/2017 22.8 46.9 30.3
2/15/2017 25.3 46 28.7
3/15/2017 23.4 58.5 18.1
4/15/2017 33.9 50.7 15.4
5/15/2017 36.9 51.3 11.8
6/15/2017 38.2 47.9 13.9
7/15/2017 38 47 15
8/15/2017 36.7 50.4 12.9
9/15/2017 48.6 40.9 10.5
10/15/2017 56.1 37.2 6.7
11/15/2017 57.6 36 6.4
12/15/2017 54.7 38.1 7.2
1/15/2018 53 38.5 8.5
2/15/2018 43.2 44.3 12.5
3/15/2018 34.4 55.4 10.2
4/15/2018 35.3 55.9 8.8
5/15/2018 30.8 58.7 10.5
6/15/2018 32.9 55.8 11.3
7/15/2018 38 44.4 17.6
8/15/2018 39 48.9 12.1
9/15/2018 34.7 48.1 17.2
10/15/2018 34.9 44.9 20.2
11/15/2018 31.5 52.1 16.4
12/15/2018 34.3 46 19.7
1/15/2019 27.1 54.7 18.2
2/15/2019 30.1 52.5 17.4
3/15/2019 28.5 53.9 17.6
4/15/2019 32.8 40.4 26.8
5/15/2019 33.4 47.7 18.9
6/15/2019 29.9 56.9 13.2
7/15/2019 34.2 54.2 11.6
8/15/2019 24.1 61.9 14
9/15/2019 25.6 56.7 17.7
10/15/2019 23.6 60.3 16.1
11/15/2019 23.8 61.5 14.7
12/15/2019 19.4 61 19.6
1/15/2020 22.2 65.8 12
2/15/2020 27.6 54.1 18.3
3/15/2020 24.1 53.4 22.5
4/15/2020 27 49.2 23.8
5/15/2020 16.2 61.5 22.3
6/15/2020 18 60 22
7/15/2020 29 49.1 21.9
8/15/2020 21.3 44 34.7
9/15/2020 20 51.2 28.8
10/15/2020 16.1 59.5 24.4
11/15/2020 16.1 57.5 26.4
12/15/2020 16.3 50.4 33.3
1/15/2021 19 49.8 31.2
2/15/2021 19.9 43.3 36.8
3/15/2021 22.4 45.1 32.5
4/15/2021 24.1 52.3 23.6
5/15/2021 30.8 48.8 20.4
6/15/2021 35.6 44 20.4
7/15/2021 25.6 52.4 22
8/15/2021 35.8 48.5 15.7
9/15/2021 36 52.3 11.7
10/15/2021 45.8 38 16.2
11/15/2021 59.6 34 6.4
12/15/2021 64 31.2 4.8
1/15/2022 69 25.9 5.1
2/15/2022 71.9 24.9 3.2
3/15/2022 72.1 25.5 2.4
4/15/2022 75.7 21.3 3
5/15/2022 75.7 21.3 3
6/15/2022 84.7 11.7 3.6
7/15/2022 92.3 3.8 3.9
8/15/2022 87.7 9 3.3
9/15/2022 83.6 12.1 4.3
10/15/2022 90.1 4.6 5.3
11/15/2022 87.8 5.7 6.5
12/15/2022 86 7.5 6.5
1/15/2023 86.5 9.4 4.1
2/15/2023 87.2 7.9 4.9
3/15/2023 86.6 6.6 6.8
4/15/2023 86.7 9.8 3.5
5/15/2023 91.8 4 4.2
6/15/2023 92 3.8 4.2
7/15/2023 85.2 10.8 4
8/15/2023 84.2 9.6 6.2
9/15/2023 83.5 8.5 8
10/15/2023 79.2 9.2 11.6
11/15/2023 73.5 12.2 14.3
12/15/2023 75.8 9.7 14.5
1/15/2024 76.11389239 7.256409274 16.62969834
2/15/2024 74.45075343 7.408427406 18.14081916
3/15/2024 73.21395554 6.762968503 20.02307596
4/15/2024 63.03405284 18.54040848 18.42553868
5/15/2024 58.56594044 22.6455615 18.78849806
6/15/2024 52.08440146 29.75133942 18.16425912
7/15/2024 55.44721574 25.78970616 18.7630781
8/15/2024 53.11249971 24.06670909 22.8207912
9/15/2024 50.2917045 26.74393454 22.96436096
10/15/2024 56.75069352 21.39315363 21.85615284
11/15/2024 55.00447649 24.73717795 20.25834556
12/15/2024 52.59993058 28.72666116 18.67340826
1/15/2025 53.51417438 31.51950957 14.96631605
2/15/2025 56.28341372 23.52965647 20.18692981
3/15/2025 57.11122289 26.19376381 16.6950133
4/15/2025 63.98158602 17.77096223 18.24745175
5/15/2025 63.63131637 19.15883084 17.20985279
6/15/2025 67.5986324 20.4999695 11.9013981
7/15/2025 64.08511591 26.70540329 9.209480791
8/15/2025 68.21612178 21.92243808 9.861440139
9/15/2025 65.16505483 23.34095666 11.49398851
10/15/2025 61.73636826 30.87438913 7.389242611
11/15/2025 55.92379408 24.9019251 19.17428083
12/15/2025 57.48561251 27.71885228 14.7955352
1/15/2026 55.44513782 29.89899804 14.65586414

Bottom Right
Euro area
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 8.895049904 67.60056457 23.50438552
2/15/2014 5.790906341 74.2554693 19.95362436
3/15/2014 6.159895151 68.28006856 25.56003629
4/15/2014 11.43462043 63.13942938 25.4259502
5/15/2014 6.490573647 61.01824781 32.49117855
6/15/2014 4.473233189 65.06502672 30.46174009
7/15/2014 1.753200928 67.85966327 30.3871358
8/15/2014 2.26534933 69.43139429 28.30325638
9/15/2014 1.762274423 66.59743926 31.64028632
10/15/2014 2.147393891 63.11019256 34.74241355
11/15/2014 2.181671539 67.70743018 30.11089828
12/15/2014 2.504284706 66.83335014 30.66236516
1/15/2015 2.454602882 57.72227291 39.8231242
2/15/2015 1.891087024 63.94601478 34.1628982
3/15/2015 1.94021919 63.11277336 34.94700745
4/15/2015 7.557329216 60.686246 31.75642478
5/15/2015 8.888911171 60.87876387 30.23232495
6/15/2015 8.090764156 60.38142604 31.52780981
7/15/2015 9.445408148 63.56298443 26.99160742
8/15/2015 9.956783748 59.59731678 30.44589947
9/15/2015 8.690377114 61.06326017 30.24636272
10/15/2015 10.69176084 64.87852323 24.42971594
11/15/2015 4.839016956 68.4320823 26.72890074
12/15/2015 4.40986253 65.09610853 30.49402894
1/15/2016 4.217556104 71.53099493 24.25144897
2/15/2016 4.710907888 66.66165293 28.62743918
3/15/2016 4.984657963 70.15823356 24.85710848
4/15/2016 2.565028177 68.54982652 28.8851453
5/15/2016 4.029039568 66.24350721 29.72745322
6/15/2016 2.337404488 72.88169585 24.78089967
7/15/2016 4.915468383 71.33445641 23.75007521
8/15/2016 5.117020637 64.73537493 30.14760444
9/15/2016 3.469506448 65.81433127 30.71616228
10/15/2016 3.129575036 76.08447145 20.78595351
11/15/2016 2.625193029 77.42013116 19.95467581
12/15/2016 9.216252532 75.45073501 15.33301245
1/15/2017 13.61818164 70.15709431 16.22472406
2/15/2017 11.34948721 67.98063138 20.6698814
3/15/2017 12.16052291 70.12902385 17.71045324
4/15/2017 18.3901593 64.31041915 17.29942155
5/15/2017 10.01112793 74.62831708 15.36055499
6/15/2017 8.944450571 75.99775436 15.05779507
7/15/2017 11.6622723 73.54960952 14.78811818
8/15/2017 16.00918305 66.89189867 17.09891828
9/15/2017 16.73199731 69.69994687 13.56805582
10/15/2017 17.33049955 64.54200042 18.12750003
11/15/2017 17.21420766 65.45529278 17.33049955
12/15/2017 12.56854705 72.67341026 14.75804269
1/15/2018 11.12458898 73.62759644 15.24781458
2/15/2018 9.329136258 81.38583688 9.285026867
3/15/2018 13.14359612 73.75691715 13.09948673
4/15/2018 13.83130163 69.09936643 17.06933194
5/15/2018 15.26986928 74.94887321 9.781257519
6/15/2018 14.1520972 76.06764777 9.780255032
7/15/2018 21.08027909 70.32239955 8.597321357
8/15/2018 20.90283904 64.18618173 14.91097923
9/15/2018 19.81714652 64.24332344 15.93953003
10/15/2018 18.12194242 73.79400914 8.08404844
11/15/2018 16.89790681 71.96747935 11.13461384
12/15/2018 15.20069773 74.83458978 9.964712487
1/15/2019 11.59317141 74.64238099 13.76444761
2/15/2019 11.72248564 78.15190914 10.12560522
3/15/2019 15.99887727 65.24855399 18.75256874
4/15/2019 20.3644857 69.44675562 10.18875868
5/15/2019 13.15697144 75.37315677 11.46987179
6/15/2019 12.67981194 73.95170264 13.36848542
7/15/2019 5.978527823 77.77298836 16.24848382
8/15/2019 6.962919895 76.96302014 16.07405997
9/15/2019 4.44881061 77.61560592 17.93558347
10/15/2019 7.430055034 76.77055244 15.79939252
11/15/2019 10.8814419 72.10521567 17.01334242
12/15/2019 11.58815923 78.12584581 10.28599497
1/15/2020 14.9309384 67.39570595 17.67335565
2/15/2020 9.852053806 76.33261833 13.81532787
3/15/2020 9.398993645 73.15518313 17.44582323
4/15/2020 11.62821001 62.7408135 25.63097648
5/15/2020 11.43976906 65.74083355 22.81939739
6/15/2020 10.15676683 64.45482429 25.38840888
7/15/2020 15.70174208 56.542309 27.75594892
8/15/2020 10.06254636 55.58105968 34.35639396
9/15/2020 6.773850811 56.92921436 36.29693483
10/15/2020 8.508910851 55.05382595 36.4372632
11/15/2020 8.508910851 53.34081751 38.15027164
12/15/2020 7.008399655 56.39396187 36.59763847
1/15/2021 15.64843405 64.81934475 19.5322212
2/15/2021 10.02225609 68.36528051 21.61246341
3/15/2021 17.07803665 60.65685528 22.26510807
4/15/2021 18.74724305 57.91995829 23.33279865
5/15/2021 18.04747965 63.82483859 18.12768176
6/15/2021 17.48506236 65.72763364 16.78730401
7/15/2021 18.83446285 67.19132213 13.97421502
8/15/2021 31.29486305 62.77920359 5.925933352
9/15/2021 28.12988732 67.68556763 4.184545054
10/15/2021 29.27978506 67.10109476 3.619120183
11/15/2021 28.05269279 69.54224646 2.405060753
12/15/2021 39.21181377 58.11444841 2.673737819
1/15/2022 49.87217404 42.50338363 7.624442328
2/15/2022 55.8865106 40.54539075 3.568098652
3/15/2022 57.43947065 38.76785804 3.792671312
4/15/2022 62.53145521 34.11198556 3.356559226
5/15/2022 65.8819991 30.99002456 3.12797634
6/15/2022 64.74008722 29.60549401 5.654418768
7/15/2022 65.44688957 25.39976941 9.15334102
8/15/2022 65.87999398 28.80946413 5.310541882
9/15/2022 70.59702241 24.51150434 4.891473257
10/15/2022 70.73337009 25.32056745 3.946062459
11/15/2022 71.60559427 24.99774425 3.396661487
12/15/2022 74.66038398 21.94295453 3.396661487
1/15/2023 82.52905141 15.16488364 2.306064951
2/15/2023 84.29469505 13.62884386 2.076461093
3/15/2023 80.69322318 12.03665641 7.270120417
4/15/2023 81.49433009 11.72784423 6.777825682
5/15/2023 81.35195564 11.2545996 7.39344476
6/15/2023 78.3620923 15.09469906 6.543208639
7/15/2023 76.04900889 11.7649418 12.18604931
8/15/2023 74.66536992 16.58662282 8.748007259
9/15/2023 73.03809018 17.78677923 9.175130593
10/15/2023 68.49113168 18.19986565 13.30900268
11/15/2023 62.96860744 21.9637647 15.06762786
12/15/2023 58.43267794 32.08839247 9.478929585
1/15/2024 54.99879692 30.63342156 14.36778152
2/15/2024 47.25397016 36.1355069 16.61052294
3/15/2024 41.48119185 44.20616779 14.31264036
4/15/2024 38.5737488 45.91454123 15.51170998
5/15/2024 44.48287616 38.56372313 16.95340071
6/15/2024 38.1717196 45.81729227 16.01098813
7/15/2024 43.84023099 43.54146615 12.61830286
8/15/2024 41.08417549 40.655077 18.26074751
9/15/2024 38.82739814 41.64561277 19.52698909
10/15/2024 42.66522297 43.0572265 14.27755053
11/15/2024 44.1399984 41.38394289 14.47605871
12/15/2024 44.63326115 40.47561758 14.89112127
1/15/2025 39.26534131 46.6951387 14.03951999
2/15/2025 37.68935407 45.6765617 16.63408423
3/15/2025 40.98569381 47.34979498 11.66451121
4/15/2025 42.46543756 46.10063461 11.43392784
5/15/2025 38.99465648 46.7582985 14.24704502
6/15/2025 39.80470591 41.31653082 18.87876327
7/15/2025 39.62424935 44.29506652 16.08068413
8/15/2025 38.6207104 44.6910684 16.6882212
9/15/2025 42.17770961 43.6614635 14.16082689
10/15/2025 41.09096013 42.57371149 16.33532838
11/15/2025 47.29966816 38.27984802 14.42048382
12/15/2025 45.57029284 34.46920709 19.96050007
1/15/2026 35.20584609 45.55077737 19.24337654

Note: Indices constructed from 166 series for the U.S., 158 series for Canada, 85 series for the U.K., and 129 series for the euro area. Data extend through January 2026 for all countries. For October 2025, the U.S. series were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 3: Diffusion Indexes for 12-month Headline Inflation, Selected Advanced Economies

Left
Above 3 Percent
Weighted share of CPI Basket

Country U.S. Canada Euro area U.K.
2014 to 2019 average 42.22336126 26.92610536 9.356943641 25.52083333
Current Average 59.97560287 48.34182807 41.66086454 60.66201488

Middle
0 to 3 Percent
Weighted share of CPI Basket

Country U.S. Canada Euro area U.K.
2014 to 2019 average 37.67065348 53.77630323 69.41026065 49.94027778
Current Average 26.29866866 30.02888209 41.53767931 26.44292655

Right
Below 0 Percent
Weighted share of CPI Basket

Country U.S. Canada Euro area U.K.
2014 to 2019 average 20.10598526 19.29759141 20.98648955 24.53888889
Current Average 12.0177322 21.62928984 16.63071132 12.89505857

Note: Current average extends from August 2025 to January 2026 for all countries. Missing U.S. CPI data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 4: Residuals from Pre-Pandemic Core Inflation Trend

Left
Below 0 percent
Percentage points

Date U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/1/2014 -0.585373569 -0.581200323 -0.406909443 -0.098961712
2/1/2014 -0.385221278 -0.466658098 -0.096478851 -0.328037975
3/1/2014 -0.250238311 -0.322953691 -0.670832518 -0.361452437
4/1/2014 -0.286802565 -0.316222409 -0.242406323 -0.210281273
5/1/2014 -0.225472812 -0.351876624 0.056020917 0.026923587
6/1/2014 -0.15606516 -0.242767427 -0.35772324 -0.035097573
7/1/2014 -0.326760389 -0.35584343 -0.132457013 -0.020646768
8/1/2014 -0.280846612 0.056029121 -0.28722443 -0.287383649
9/1/2014 -0.170513239 0.09560258 -0.609746772 -0.420693063
10/1/2014 -0.102196328 0.18194885 0.010855093 -0.0552685
11/1/2014 -0.240402998 0.024929513 -0.074052136 -0.299464946
12/1/2014 -0.365799235 -0.006892333 -0.15343354 -0.388895289
1/1/2015 -0.311255213 -0.081688305 -0.530231676 0.09838285
2/1/2015 -0.283294601 0.142352615 -0.516062433 -0.036894987
3/1/2015 -0.206850523 0.113121602 -0.173274742 0.083657679
4/1/2015 -0.149459322 -0.073957925 -0.288146656 0.066211161
5/1/2015 -0.136625903 -0.105437106 -0.711270617 0.330350384
6/1/2015 -0.004715124 -0.065598321 -0.534782578 0.320775557
7/1/2015 0.014871657 0.00152364 -0.592121578 0.260846754
8/1/2015 0.059878969 -0.259717595 -0.673065966 0.503217313
9/1/2015 0.09005347 -0.126188147 -0.318946825 0.393874483
10/1/2015 0.120791145 -0.302138116 -0.753263776 0.024842219
11/1/2015 0.179498497 -0.141476891 -0.609023075 -0.310967558
12/1/2015 0.127547608 -0.070089311 -0.003915854 0.025216053
1/1/2016 0.262346593 0.165162221 -0.963129052 -0.251373309
2/1/2016 0.368754205 0.032043912 -0.921033619 -0.253772592
3/1/2016 0.315993555 0.075191623 -0.72807806 -0.246974492
4/1/2016 0.260917042 0.183787224 -0.891361979 -0.507084312
5/1/2016 0.501765752 0.067776512 -0.438750342 -0.356361044
6/1/2016 0.493997232 0.189289397 0.067555075 -0.477454985
7/1/2016 0.459146858 0.229430043 0.505207383 -0.488578193
8/1/2016 0.475641594 0.13919063 0.061542706 0.003583392
9/1/2016 0.3985789 0.129589874 -0.286570576 -0.027919562
10/1/2016 0.274982872 0.061310491 0.213555965 -0.441310497
11/1/2016 0.142659164 -0.019597984 -0.324141445 -0.439611524
12/1/2016 0.19803775 -0.01865678 -0.411537028 -0.588227176
1/1/2017 0.271477547 0.302100784 -0.114033518 -0.468322426
2/1/2017 0.276560265 0.239102452 0.155344208 0.008568072
3/1/2017 0.031629059 -0.037215129 -0.261600101 -0.331535476
4/1/2017 -0.093016425 -0.381111694 0.160562711 0.050869487
5/1/2017 -0.298493909 -0.509628693 0.080617044 -0.140341886
6/1/2017 -0.180913906 -0.220458242 0.125928216 0.00150542
7/1/2017 -0.174122878 -0.397900248 0.244337636 -0.056723497
8/1/2017 -0.221799804 -0.327312307 0.232655191 0.0652049
9/1/2017 -0.213368364 -0.617922156 0.050875253 -0.110444969
10/1/2017 -0.140787347 -0.449781262 -0.065095514 0.018802697
11/1/2017 -0.163470832 -0.207516309 0.002806484 0.012283137
12/1/2017 -0.03109665 -0.235252973 -0.164071727 -0.270941332
1/1/2018 -0.04189324 -0.322920833 0.019941269 -0.110914449
2/1/2018 0.018816467 -0.1455557 0.118254271 -0.555162346
3/1/2018 0.132719004 -0.017592497 -0.242193175 -0.138696969
4/1/2018 0.150818145 -0.129927605 -0.563838112 -0.361166523
5/1/2018 0.312913406 -0.335581329 -0.34981159 -0.232430907
6/1/2018 0.305037584 -0.19048256 -0.550328134 -0.500602721
7/1/2018 0.192367814 0.361557622 -0.128765142 -0.358414268
8/1/2018 0.036343133 0.342306365 -0.213851884 0.020911018
9/1/2018 0.070436604 -0.126232725 -0.243305807 -0.095287109
10/1/2018 -0.035432531 0.127583843 -0.14452984 -0.400948959
11/1/2018 0.051470463 -0.13577183 -0.676529782 -0.511246991
12/1/2018 0.22184508 0.368352183 -0.183302709 -0.608699407
1/1/2019 0.057862443 -0.017068151 -0.427904358 -0.444653745
2/1/2019 0.10569801 0.189294696 -0.433026646 -0.505498091
3/1/2019 0.012978017 -0.087885218 -0.436654767 -0.096605945
4/1/2019 -0.148389526 0.128729529 0.130399263 -0.23476176
5/1/2019 0.021600588 0.353611038 -0.337996623 -0.64153797
6/1/2019 0.097756961 0.495586907 -0.623656293 -0.487452109
7/1/2019 0.156940253 0.362728948 -0.628381328 -0.676001272
8/1/2019 0.342636406 0.308993195 -0.984122814 -0.66553048
9/1/2019 0.258663332 0.388723104 -0.502597601 -0.453511007
10/1/2019 0.196014893 0.374934046 -0.710591889 -0.464820591
11/1/2019 0.346923022 0.084919138 -0.858191487 -0.148572858
12/1/2019 0.183727667 0.062174357 -0.511444348 -0.339262422
1/1/2020 0.190082871 -0.046126318 -0.813789872 -0.240073785
2/1/2020 0.192259438 -0.00872011 -0.599764488 -0.474200099
3/1/2020 0.088276476 -0.192445851 -0.340984067 -0.573330679
4/1/2020 -0.479085724 -0.454701199 -0.629793903 -0.115612806
5/1/2020 -0.569132627 -1.110322268 -0.835744691 -0.272028248
6/1/2020 -0.722781667 -0.759179313 -0.645789084 -0.146912916
7/1/2020 -0.389377647 -1.292688544 -0.267588027 0.136628435
8/1/2020 -0.287111169 -1.294580648 -0.441347924 -0.099383665
9/1/2020 -0.460428575 -0.938573968 -0.521064531 -0.177888879
10/1/2020 -0.529904611 -0.851971482 -0.618139036 -0.033519254
11/1/2020 -0.45318264 -0.363775348 -1.003266483 0.12343096
12/1/2020 -0.502842299 -0.61915202 -0.36711698 0.036336044
1/1/2021 -0.674805093 -0.286304208 -0.422818769 0.226086264
2/1/2021 -0.849415994 -0.915457204 -0.654449928 0.120211181
3/1/2021 -0.494318452 -0.807883864 -0.614222566 0.302675215
4/1/2021 0.700792884 0.046686149 -0.57348414 -0.037609595
5/1/2021 1.512784432 0.642571844 -0.608590188 -0.186753048
6/1/2021 2.178520919 0.414971832 -0.087220372 -0.310973051
7/1/2021 1.860596907 0.913870264 -0.570138134 -0.309383205
8/1/2021 1.632559929 1.226137449 0.792675189 -0.10919755
9/1/2021 1.607744916 1.433512956 0.281683621 0.074391862
10/1/2021 2.125849805 1.436547991 1.36489815 0.080041741
11/1/2021 2.495394259 1.290407691 1.238366868 0.662927285
12/1/2021 2.974719227 1.509618914 1.399760219 0.709592599
1/1/2022 3.498917606 1.656959557 1.541599133 0.750275765
2/1/2022 3.884544267 2.017066489 2.134965978 0.877109365
3/1/2022 3.93581473 2.815084904 2.661508778 1.123595845
4/1/2022 3.637789192 2.848344857 3.150238345 1.625279346
5/1/2022 3.503857256 3.214384022 2.925827871 1.875303027
6/1/2022 3.436031349 3.341020012 2.787393018 2.057833793
7/1/2022 3.428253301 3.415074572 3.238990973 2.6205698
8/1/2022 3.842003971 3.172578443 3.232954915 2.598883961
9/1/2022 4.201125636 3.339410952 3.561627987 3.010575394
10/1/2022 3.827907099 3.269563792 3.601129803 3.204932807
11/1/2022 3.543493548 3.294983594 3.587449299 3.124843168
12/1/2022 3.364341509 3.202520154 3.64160577 3.32039818
1/1/2023 3.15827885 2.950089729 2.850708056 3.343069644
2/1/2023 3.262461815 2.782043141 3.308965606 3.637891516
3/1/2023 3.34783691 2.628145868 3.230342369 3.72832241
4/1/2023 3.337454681 2.498021291 3.587780369 3.619262298
5/1/2023 3.210700264 2.232914438 3.952925596 3.420298603
6/1/2023 2.689049812 1.875859898 3.668929029 3.484581242
7/1/2023 2.551695119 1.837611297 3.628638317 3.551583329
8/1/2023 2.232334892 1.979404199 3.18039006 3.393271493
9/1/2023 1.994893382 1.425039604 3.215738616 2.629782355
10/1/2023 1.97175997 1.691488802 2.741936067 2.286861201
11/1/2023 2.027648774 1.804574725 2.378449539 1.807453904
12/1/2023 1.944258501 1.636291459 2.366349026 1.580636081
1/1/2024 1.816685031 1.409194359 2.576980444 1.490506393
2/1/2024 1.774275691 1.161351209 2.111297722 1.345724525
3/1/2024 1.849046857 1.299358922 1.877393029 1.214469977
4/1/2024 1.651471334 1.103846052 1.377872428 1.015538042
5/1/2024 1.462935611 1.229504828 1.320024481 1.495787441
6/1/2024 1.316592823 1.520556753 1.341229891 1.422815809
7/1/2024 1.324674266 1.476079354 1.102131642 1.40767763
8/1/2024 1.209466037 1.121585713 1.316728334 1.337690345
9/1/2024 1.353393571 1.064584863 1.028680902 1.273241047
10/1/2024 1.428775337 1.011215094 1.003703448 1.279753489
11/1/2024 1.358072927 0.694328577 1.281004396 1.321659901
12/1/2024 1.286463316 0.854685541 0.648284622 1.352205237
1/1/2025 1.229978005 0.473166764 1.171132897 1.483827737
2/1/2025 1.142778901 1.223449994 1.341274553 1.318751929
3/1/2025 0.818858563 0.52763385 0.990191087 0.804945966
4/1/2025 0.639216958 0.733998618 1.81610988 1.052915061
5/1/2025 0.673009736 0.830245121 1.43685211 0.853968733
6/1/2025 0.812618628 0.780395068 1.111169551 0.873687773
7/1/2025 0.843090037 0.74182906 0.961828324 0.672143952
8/1/2025 0.918918726 0.674716412 0.877531315 0.683852602
9/1/2025 0.743143908 0.659712036 0.903145758 0.72788367
10/1/2025 0.558114807 0.996297066 0.736956923 0.652654107
11/1/2025 0.361570083 0.701532805 1.463409808 0.842098585
12/1/2025 0.435787354 0.807762423 1.175143637 0.863753494
1/1/2026 0.390405616 0.669521576 0.624165817 0.743241079

Right
Above 3 percent
Percentage points

Date U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/1/2014 0.182960142 -0.27580626 0.496451839 -0.120826034
2/1/2014 0.111179366 -0.405021344 0.650761681 0.079646265
3/1/2014 0.167887169 -0.341205025 0.477494758 -0.119478906
4/1/2014 0.238104318 -0.182927561 0.836516041 0.007317458
5/1/2014 0.250138255 0.007589055 0.497702168 -0.190869467
6/1/2014 0.229249233 0.053964439 0.829458143 -0.107122208
7/1/2014 0.172542611 0.066193956 0.58528414 -0.068827772
8/1/2014 0.062989333 0.415179233 0.634891196 0.09533681
9/1/2014 0.127602905 0.292354099 0.287128289 -0.088858289
10/1/2014 0.121471009 0.463655456 0.340312504 -0.162816468
11/1/2014 0.017812303 0.409541212 0.030441047 -0.214237819
12/1/2014 -0.1922516 0.385766155 -0.031165997 -0.131073122
1/1/2015 -0.08859101 0.354606089 0.218265342 -0.249003587
2/1/2015 -0.050145653 0.192090393 -0.00422328 -0.14189155
3/1/2015 0.082882479 0.447547583 -0.098433959 -0.20425128
4/1/2015 0.08241276 0.332376026 -0.420091578 -0.026761279
5/1/2015 0.067612373 0.28231876 -0.224701073 0.321398035
6/1/2015 0.105253532 0.267395149 -0.521819709 0.28342262
7/1/2015 0.169478379 0.410107266 -0.102959814 0.348724107
8/1/2015 -0.373663323 0.202630932 -0.173050415 0.364041843
9/1/2015 -0.338363847 0.338557749 -0.160132629 0.361629449
10/1/2015 -0.222834466 0.161828565 -0.081254456 0.384278114
11/1/2015 -0.153987147 0.246918415 -0.089574945 0.048853044
12/1/2015 -0.034867771 0.07696297 0.186516169 0.08462832
1/1/2016 0.059224205 0.115762917 0.059748787 0.156987453
2/1/2016 0.058544639 0.049969266 -0.025263232 -0.002622155
3/1/2016 -0.012978781 0.129214236 0.341807277 0.089852877
4/1/2016 -0.061497742 0.290979862 -0.041175751 -0.110405861
5/1/2016 0.009945074 0.480591865 -0.054489682 -0.027657424
6/1/2016 0.04557432 0.473490427 0.006680699 -0.025584189
7/1/2016 0.014188504 0.390842924 -0.079789027 0.058786649
8/1/2016 0.138079709 0.218281276 -0.046813615 -0.029250972
9/1/2016 0.02303601 0.327267649 0.091124977 -0.032988638
10/1/2016 -0.070122907 0.243917492 -0.186705862 -0.110305764
11/1/2016 -0.105948627 0.070386122 0.129125091 -0.026004553
12/1/2016 -0.107000122 0.312241949 0.28757641 -0.003746714
1/1/2017 -0.046355599 0.448611585 0.256634143 -0.014575913
2/1/2017 -0.101470954 0.218244875 0.583026122 -0.082104433
3/1/2017 -0.315936341 0.101426015 0.444140475 -0.23892838
4/1/2017 -0.375544835 -0.07110428 0.921299848 0.154167727
5/1/2017 -0.491760223 -0.154728608 0.927965091 -0.051368784
6/1/2017 -0.40676186 -0.169521517 0.837818686 0.132857339
7/1/2017 -0.499244079 -0.039435269 0.791125641 0.139491887
8/1/2017 -0.476616352 -0.110717786 1.002816073 0.158540124
9/1/2017 -0.471269164 -0.302158262 0.801195031 0.036378574
10/1/2017 -0.451786235 -0.130178145 0.686554402 -0.096220792
11/1/2017 -0.501027245 0.12066993 0.757470968 -0.15093712
12/1/2017 -0.408607064 0.067714525 0.601035863 0.079864774
1/1/2018 -0.358168884 0.045583313 0.614530587 -0.037514051
2/1/2018 -0.390769471 0.313199326 0.574565171 0.09354062
3/1/2018 -0.059358474 0.41884194 0.736674431 -0.022371671
4/1/2018 -0.034009827 0.32201716 0.465172757 -0.133391853
5/1/2018 0.010529884 0.159692965 0.631673912 0.087103348
6/1/2018 0.031789029 0.221230221 0.305352744 -0.063774277
7/1/2018 0.133884956 0.716667949 0.179639455 0.054718372
8/1/2018 0.020696244 0.720344411 0.459443565 -0.044732432
9/1/2018 -0.005952046 0.223999012 0.237107042 -0.029048105
10/1/2018 -0.059240012 0.432433487 0.261517803 0.216989232
11/1/2018 -0.071448637 0.138352041 0.337692222 0.083123523
12/1/2018 -0.028553567 0.625981881 0.367913348 0.080943053
1/1/2019 0.017215535 0.305444777 0.428763283 0.264768772
2/1/2019 -0.068743264 0.413451365 0.387023913 0.143858505
3/1/2019 -0.13917296 0.358702131 0.41834687 -0.095254418
4/1/2019 -0.190590481 0.407084316 0.305590988 0.176254451
5/1/2019 -0.094641799 0.610185691 0.190917112 -0.080288242
6/1/2019 -0.081739083 0.672491771 0.302183328 0.146058842
7/1/2019 -0.003988949 0.560166313 0.38842625 0.01223321
8/1/2019 0.227766705 0.435058365 0.162926117 0.033179782
9/1/2019 0.240073406 0.366665006 0.272751755 0.151893197
10/1/2019 0.082882782 0.291289084 0.388156824 0.205939937
11/1/2019 0.109834629 0.331158191 0.278758346 0.227733584
12/1/2019 -0.033015308 0.092638433 -0.036139696 0.245095484
1/1/2020 0.027928152 0.291453186 0.267891745 0.15893676
2/1/2020 0.054018158 0.350118401 0.055669074 0.275483095
3/1/2020 -0.128294805 0.163579782 0.117386367 0.154104043
4/1/2020 -0.853516135 -0.236988177 -0.183774112 -0.025348702
5/1/2020 -1.097335537 -0.935067497 -0.039149419 -0.026028833
6/1/2020 -0.556565438 -0.470959208 0.141057019 -0.123064468
7/1/2020 -0.217521632 -1.110663408 0.255025728 -0.105246317
8/1/2020 0.07670666 -0.977365087 -0.556494045 -0.570487147
9/1/2020 0.057638654 -0.58045543 -0.082874583 -0.732214767
10/1/2020 -0.007124591 -0.744417308 0.134862489 -0.724802788
11/1/2020 0.023919601 -0.291626747 -0.165491302 -0.700206715
12/1/2020 -0.047960407 -0.539271453 0.121532957 -0.734667805
1/1/2021 -0.294129991 -0.185805526 0.130196935 0.11600042
2/1/2021 -0.387189611 -0.81083467 -0.453651569 -0.011329029
3/1/2021 -0.181318499 -0.842971437 -0.268770198 -0.180872567
4/1/2021 1.062646726 0.024387711 -0.077876745 -0.464569351
5/1/2021 1.783997834 0.455000768 0.315599904 -0.211658955
6/1/2021 2.410648231 0.285874275 0.60960898 -0.206837945
7/1/2021 2.221096145 0.865193854 0.415686074 -0.581124042
8/1/2021 1.903987261 1.050635549 1.481731714 -0.40636228
9/1/2021 1.871533237 1.337499941 1.198771064 0.277592975
10/1/2021 1.799687566 1.276226456 1.502869663 0.257313502
11/1/2021 2.024851488 1.080460107 1.804921078 0.768896154
12/1/2021 2.571377595 1.405372086 2.096737199 0.687304412
1/1/2022 3.064703606 1.384670687 2.063640445 -0.090559926
2/1/2022 3.430343174 1.758497856 2.870841135 -0.020377709
3/1/2022 3.435742608 2.527202683 3.391782509 0.200420644
4/1/2022 3.14801531 2.410162783 3.72868864 0.456342122
5/1/2022 2.992162419 2.902103676 3.504278166 0.665734543
6/1/2022 2.862784603 3.013790743 3.130778379 0.717589342
7/1/2022 2.86319481 3.177995469 3.318036933 0.953514335
8/1/2022 3.281567624 2.858970087 3.491831443 1.240071745
9/1/2022 3.609041801 2.983410984 3.827931782 1.384885152
10/1/2022 3.325651965 2.83859902 3.622796678 1.646685969
11/1/2022 3.060022867 2.894567957 3.571537054 1.555250593
12/1/2022 2.849939618 2.939506562 3.676106363 1.710743536
1/1/2023 2.718052712 2.551817475 3.109038155 1.298296219
2/1/2023 2.714925296 2.434392478 3.478848999 1.501255078
3/1/2023 2.805319293 2.262698872 3.438299486 1.485682905
4/1/2023 2.748306873 2.221691349 4.076351332 1.365474731
5/1/2023 2.535027604 1.754597847 4.237030163 1.126946341
6/1/2023 2.010519431 1.422190962 3.947373129 1.248501122
7/1/2023 1.891469225 1.442810313 4.060112042 1.294182668
8/1/2023 1.831461103 1.570570955 3.451203398 1.163646458
9/1/2023 1.507930827 1.208567505 3.351757726 0.736166729
10/1/2023 1.505687063 1.384809578 3.023479249 0.419720232
11/1/2023 1.422995529 1.514135061 2.589407224 0.14578839
12/1/2023 1.364147257 1.411921496 2.480881751 0.143661826
1/1/2024 1.314904194 1.14930354 2.418614722 0.174971622
2/1/2024 1.228803064 0.897781203 1.913806737 0.199410798
3/1/2024 1.273391926 0.989717381 1.665108463 0.09041407
4/1/2024 1.074658124 0.799590329 1.424774929 -0.055913009
5/1/2024 0.921100718 0.957977991 1.134610486 0.033180688
6/1/2024 0.775105426 1.026981284 1.412986667 0.043161359
7/1/2024 0.686861118 0.909992286 1.046572051 -0.320968574
8/1/2024 0.774827886 0.56882102 1.360511898 -0.13807192
9/1/2024 0.86081559 0.533528874 1.08120205 -0.056810841
10/1/2024 0.829992458 0.473420279 1.004283889 -0.150928691
11/1/2024 0.804059451 0.131245118 1.227999265 -0.322591272
12/1/2024 0.840101764 0.349130336 0.971959807 -0.35466445
1/1/2025 0.903221244 0.31555493 1.576901211 0.012376436
2/1/2025 0.685808228 0.985579355 1.256415167 -0.116036041
3/1/2025 0.392983639 0.504568707 1.118916358 -0.258539886
4/1/2025 0.319903584 0.618372838 1.609918262 -0.049406837
5/1/2025 0.353201556 0.551616034 1.30597409 -0.094941224
6/1/2025 0.437507521 0.602345625 1.368239698 -0.223082354
7/1/2025 0.428117591 0.41437588 1.512001882 -0.198134874
8/1/2025 0.479416518 0.395304057 1.300514924 -0.178893999
9/1/2025 0.380888561 0.405081783 1.263507383 -0.262480464
10/1/2025 0.263788927 0.758074933 1.15354566 -0.242473521
11/1/2025 0.36262274 0.463662788 0.997875515 -0.714632555
12/1/2025 0.323448783 0.558175848 1.077136783 -0.750825508
1/1/2026 0.13389246 0.566738838 0.88234676 -0.174262743

Note: The model estimates 12-month core inflation by fitting the inflation rate onto the core CPI DI using data from 2000 to 2019. Residuals from 2020 onwards are out-of-sample predictions. Out-of-sample data extend through January 2026 for all countries. Missing U.S. CPI data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

 
Figure 5: Averages of 12-month Core Inflation Diffusion Index by Categories
  Pre-Covid Current
U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
Core Goods 2.782142 7.472607 7.150362 1.403305 7.342529 14.96845 8.944569 5.027999
Housing Services 34.19083 7.364335 0.545834 0.152377 40.28711 18.59935 11.64967 5.60717
Non-Housing Services 10.75896 10.20063 16.05963 2.641664 13.8574 14.78 40.71578 34.6794

Note: Current average extends from August 2025 to January 2026 for all countries. Missing U.S. CPI data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 6: Diffusion Indexes for 12-month growth in Wages

Top Left
U.S. Goods Industries
Weighted share of good industries

Date Above 3% 0% to 3% Below 0%
1/31/2014 0.357593311 0.394777409 0.24762928
2/28/2014 0.314071404 0.422095583 0.263833013
3/31/2014 0.437923101 0.401290271 0.160786628
4/30/2014 0.33898126 0.508419065 0.152599675
5/31/2014 0.357455635 0.467059559 0.175484806
6/30/2014 0.354926475 0.528207011 0.116866514
7/31/2014 0.385881031 0.496201804 0.117917165
8/31/2014 0.451263491 0.451751702 0.096984807
9/30/2014 0.346457307 0.460572883 0.19296981
10/31/2014 0.392927729 0.416216847 0.190855425
11/30/2014 0.427076118 0.455111566 0.117812316
12/31/2014 0.340993692 0.469231465 0.189774842
1/31/2015 0.375958418 0.524792801 0.099248781
2/28/2015 0.59050987 0.281941908 0.127548222
3/31/2015 0.380067 0.403329281 0.21660372
4/30/2015 0.346570094 0.438876993 0.214552913
5/31/2015 0.359118437 0.392948528 0.247933034
6/30/2015 0.251050373 0.508008493 0.240941134
7/31/2015 0.281071456 0.571340729 0.147587815
8/31/2015 0.373610746 0.48787706 0.138512193
9/30/2015 0.313277995 0.302391665 0.38433034
10/31/2015 0.476301531 0.368364556 0.155333913
11/30/2015 0.402095784 0.389690735 0.208213482
12/31/2015 0.493834784 0.292511984 0.213653233
1/31/2016 0.488126363 0.328776033 0.183097604
2/29/2016 0.344210049 0.421503069 0.234286882
3/31/2016 0.294507654 0.548570918 0.156921428
4/30/2016 0.460905428 0.451936561 0.08715801
5/31/2016 0.49838293 0.432124518 0.069492553
6/30/2016 0.5388018 0.397711289 0.063486911
7/31/2016 0.574553441 0.32066549 0.104781069
8/31/2016 0.420546195 0.379813528 0.199640276
9/30/2016 0.514469147 0.380998647 0.104532206
10/31/2016 0.427630286 0.472173786 0.100195928
11/30/2016 0.398281456 0.47254892 0.129169624
12/31/2016 0.355244738 0.495448585 0.149306677
1/31/2017 0.302793034 0.609640371 0.087566595
2/28/2017 0.496641753 0.356094081 0.147264165
3/31/2017 0.312892438 0.490902678 0.196204883
4/30/2017 0.323081081 0.562918403 0.114000515
5/31/2017 0.319497803 0.534532329 0.145969868
6/30/2017 0.478930942 0.410078872 0.110990186
7/31/2017 0.46567209 0.437753514 0.096574396
8/31/2017 0.394818782 0.501407398 0.10377382
9/30/2017 0.36007393 0.317669828 0.322256242
10/31/2017 0.38084205 0.452338062 0.166819887
11/30/2017 0.511213818 0.316359784 0.172426398
12/31/2017 0.43588413 0.42557345 0.13854242
1/31/2018 0.306374441 0.495446828 0.198178731
2/28/2018 0.593912526 0.298104495 0.107982979
3/31/2018 0.713533623 0.203537545 0.082928832
4/30/2018 0.62440979 0.242980093 0.132610116
5/31/2018 0.556742526 0.309665534 0.13359194
6/30/2018 0.412984889 0.418023802 0.168991309
7/31/2018 0.617629282 0.160801924 0.221568793
8/31/2018 0.443564965 0.392835828 0.163599207
9/30/2018 0.544285671 0.32125989 0.134454439
10/31/2018 0.376642029 0.461955411 0.16140256
11/30/2018 0.443974503 0.339150861 0.216874636
12/31/2018 0.587266839 0.223061237 0.189671925
1/31/2019 0.592556253 0.228008878 0.179434869
2/28/2019 0.276889836 0.468397203 0.254712961
3/31/2019 0.519868899 0.314744688 0.165386413
4/30/2019 0.379419203 0.41453965 0.206041147
5/31/2019 0.200128934 0.597020182 0.202850884
6/30/2019 0.532909539 0.306000976 0.161089485
7/31/2019 0.248103525 0.576784174 0.175112301
8/31/2019 0.382202381 0.430071429 0.18772619
9/30/2019 0.442379912 0.435398725 0.122221363
10/31/2019 0.366943923 0.444635244 0.188420833
11/30/2019 0.555309101 0.300664234 0.144026665
12/31/2019 0.208706778 0.4879196 0.303373621
1/31/2020 0.232823556 0.559575439 0.207601004
2/29/2020 0.560948108 0.316747835 0.122304057
3/31/2020 0.429473913 0.343256925 0.227269162
4/30/2020 0.179095164 0.267218341 0.553686495
5/31/2020 0.115625694 0.559219891 0.325154416
6/30/2020 0.229295911 0.475781205 0.294922884
7/31/2020 0.509718673 0.331610795 0.158670531
8/31/2020 0.463019327 0.396521331 0.140459342
9/30/2020 0.314101185 0.329270144 0.35662867
10/31/2020 0.501742226 0.368747046 0.129510727
11/30/2020 0.536416505 0.318855265 0.144728229
12/31/2020 0.604546311 0.176728414 0.218725275
1/31/2021 0.575392259 0.256403484 0.168204257
2/28/2021 0.312656543 0.471328618 0.216014839
3/31/2021 0.633332917 0.177273238 0.189393845
4/30/2021 0.786141226 0.158920109 0.054938665
5/31/2021 0.86177276 0.120109531 0.018117709
6/30/2021 0.758818724 0.187130929 0.054050346
7/31/2021 0.713963236 0.188100095 0.09793667
8/31/2021 0.705605769 0.252281273 0.042112958
9/30/2021 0.826550017 0.129570404 0.04387958
10/31/2021 0.79894817 0.109575828 0.091476002
11/30/2021 0.772675065 0.161349446 0.065975489
12/31/2021 0.759309774 0.151002216 0.064559536
1/31/2022 0.738604935 0.165263479 0.07084374
2/28/2022 0.851165723 0.045228598 0.078169518
3/31/2022 0.720950402 0.16901858 0.084680941
4/30/2022 0.749369233 0.067876538 0.157283256
5/31/2022 0.710210192 0.147416013 0.116905204
6/30/2022 0.734131058 0.103771783 0.136709238
7/31/2022 0.705962446 0.202662528 0.066129167
8/31/2022 0.734275115 0.159269921 0.081210862
9/30/2022 0.567095387 0.282196958 0.125452467
10/31/2022 0.76063462 0.077117618 0.137087482
11/30/2022 0.562929021 0.248360578 0.163594225
12/31/2022 0.561950125 0.222355525 0.190303095
1/31/2023 0.733904787 0.133235245 0.049167242
2/28/2023 0.559862824 0.27912169 0.077173596
3/31/2023 0.664381193 0.198150555 0.053867617
4/30/2023 0.683742271 0.175009075 0.057653969
5/31/2023 0.719737914 0.133974279 0.062661649
6/30/2023 0.766651641 0.089399888 0.060687299
7/31/2023 0.67861526 0.185388962 0.05299199
8/31/2023 0.708017142 0.123518687 0.08560537
9/30/2023 0.669926867 0.187038483 0.060210168
10/31/2023 0.692898341 0.122115413 0.10235736
11/30/2023 0.711380432 0.088436299 0.11768253
12/31/2023 0.661545753 0.17407945 0.081618627
1/31/2024 0.43570959 0.261413909 0.220401419
2/29/2024 0.623590315 0.199251327 0.094656226
3/31/2024 0.692832724 0.149585389 0.075049978
4/30/2024 0.54473074 0.311015285 0.061790176
5/31/2024 0.544447598 0.311009001 0.062242014
6/30/2024 0.702202211 0.182203866 0.033219293
7/31/2024 0.53444552 0.298390143 0.084688651
8/31/2024 0.413915352 0.460993954 0.042760655
9/30/2024 0.654996078 0.198168016 0.064626673
10/31/2024 0.599528168 0.18030131 0.137800955
11/30/2024 0.481989243 0.260634938 0.175177569
12/31/2024 0.642696483 0.104917026 0.125514343
1/31/2025 0.664354373 0.171989678 0.036631706
2/28/2025 0.571151377 0.131133867 0.170656823
3/31/2025 0.587585497 0.250414172 0.03489693
4/30/2025 0.595855842 0.251122721 0.02593353
5/31/2025 0.64750697 0.109299063 0.116106576
6/30/2025 0.501778896 0.249412461 0.121781856
7/31/2025 0.729676199 0.078047678 0.064647174
8/31/2025 0.616178756 0.218199463 0.037663505
9/30/2025 0.590326906 0.227064398 0.054617516
10/31/2025 0.640775368 0.194044624 0.037009433
11/30/2025 0.70215554 0.142525299 0.027315016
12/31/2025 0.690471368 0.135232228 0.046773348

Top Right
U.S. Services Industries
Weighted share of services industries

Date Above 3% 0% to 3% Below 0%
1/31/2014 0.261550824 0.528506943 0.209942233
2/28/2014 0.213445335 0.556108991 0.230445674
3/31/2014 0.253957107 0.571328886 0.174714008
4/30/2014 0.345565424 0.527450858 0.126983718
5/31/2014 0.308507311 0.553490133 0.138002555
6/30/2014 0.248496425 0.558137695 0.193365881
7/31/2014 0.382441253 0.467200139 0.150358609
8/31/2014 0.514704184 0.325609621 0.159686195
9/30/2014 0.45826451 0.401997179 0.139738311
10/31/2014 0.512004157 0.33697099 0.151024853
11/30/2014 0.540832365 0.317339457 0.141828177
12/31/2014 0.571399649 0.289957958 0.138642393
1/31/2015 0.581047787 0.305182915 0.113769298
2/28/2015 0.608474829 0.27377038 0.117754791
3/31/2015 0.353970773 0.514761097 0.13126813
4/30/2015 0.470969877 0.324671864 0.204358259
5/31/2015 0.457269717 0.398929933 0.14380035
6/30/2015 0.450225947 0.428074795 0.121699259
7/31/2015 0.466285096 0.405759148 0.127955756
8/31/2015 0.525920719 0.312358173 0.161721108
9/30/2015 0.567789472 0.249920793 0.182289735
10/31/2015 0.524191061 0.373372036 0.102436904
11/30/2015 0.502310301 0.378025708 0.119663992
12/31/2015 0.41346501 0.488739407 0.097795584
1/31/2016 0.456651028 0.460415558 0.082933415
2/29/2016 0.420543557 0.450772808 0.128683635
3/31/2016 0.44918119 0.466393944 0.084424867
4/30/2016 0.469494091 0.415773095 0.114732814
5/31/2016 0.402952948 0.433490977 0.163556075
6/30/2016 0.480436773 0.386455221 0.133108005
7/31/2016 0.495371387 0.344364957 0.160263655
8/31/2016 0.397708203 0.420573204 0.181718594
9/30/2016 0.440106176 0.321491923 0.238401901
10/31/2016 0.407788359 0.389556307 0.202655334
11/30/2016 0.443098954 0.370549027 0.186352019
12/31/2016 0.373497477 0.443750862 0.182751661
1/31/2017 0.308974525 0.491575706 0.199449769
2/28/2017 0.432786531 0.417136395 0.150077075
3/31/2017 0.381286524 0.443242239 0.175471237
4/30/2017 0.441570565 0.417766504 0.140662931
5/31/2017 0.49424471 0.419757529 0.085997761
6/30/2017 0.442870167 0.429438973 0.12769086
7/31/2017 0.416587169 0.489130491 0.094282339
8/31/2017 0.480598921 0.421243231 0.098157848
9/30/2017 0.525061013 0.377955888 0.0969831
10/31/2017 0.415338172 0.425821881 0.158839947
11/30/2017 0.540097958 0.371949452 0.087952589
12/31/2017 0.573409054 0.333988798 0.092602148
1/31/2018 0.448511765 0.445092215 0.106396021
2/28/2018 0.544074574 0.37686112 0.079064306
3/31/2018 0.630053081 0.293247823 0.076699096
4/30/2018 0.534055747 0.376100495 0.089843758
5/31/2018 0.611077476 0.308473264 0.08044926
6/30/2018 0.577783653 0.336681179 0.085535168
7/31/2018 0.624394683 0.297583875 0.078021441
8/31/2018 0.61528874 0.333002062 0.051709198
9/30/2018 0.549049633 0.392549982 0.058400386
10/31/2018 0.584526034 0.350263995 0.065209971
11/30/2018 0.526590581 0.406860778 0.066548641
12/31/2018 0.565058984 0.37241838 0.062522637
1/31/2019 0.638311993 0.292727031 0.068960975
2/28/2019 0.628348642 0.295625799 0.076025559
3/31/2019 0.657186857 0.240224711 0.102588432
4/30/2019 0.660043908 0.231599208 0.108356884
5/31/2019 0.552075075 0.283229051 0.164695874
6/30/2019 0.562318196 0.316950955 0.120730848
7/31/2019 0.540240073 0.372809402 0.086950525
8/31/2019 0.528889384 0.385654773 0.085455843
9/30/2019 0.551339112 0.349284072 0.099376816
10/31/2019 0.57016269 0.307701546 0.122135764
11/30/2019 0.606014377 0.27678145 0.117204173
12/31/2019 0.530036711 0.328281522 0.141681766
1/31/2020 0.472067398 0.346597818 0.181334783
2/29/2020 0.413734348 0.44888805 0.137377601
3/31/2020 0.439045296 0.381638273 0.179316431
4/30/2020 0.468608523 0.23345319 0.297938286
5/31/2020 0.62671023 0.250885734 0.122404037
6/30/2020 0.510971465 0.324110337 0.164918198
7/31/2020 0.557389873 0.315653483 0.126956644
8/31/2020 0.619472183 0.245197557 0.13533026
9/30/2020 0.662006415 0.244959659 0.093033926
10/31/2020 0.751674674 0.204925423 0.043399902
11/30/2020 0.70270052 0.242889543 0.054409937
12/31/2020 0.740351592 0.081086533 0.178561875
1/31/2021 0.78577633 0.157153974 0.057069695
2/28/2021 0.662248892 0.270247746 0.067503362
3/31/2021 0.79712614 0.183619082 0.019254779
4/30/2021 0.693327255 0.139511192 0.167161553
5/31/2021 0.71723472 0.153793791 0.128971489
6/30/2021 0.760386802 0.178446855 0.061166343
7/31/2021 0.801126893 0.142273938 0.056599168
8/31/2021 0.707425605 0.203142759 0.089431636
9/30/2021 0.759416861 0.172993781 0.067589358
10/31/2021 0.780362078 0.154201424 0.065436498
11/30/2021 0.832972705 0.109403934 0.057623361
12/31/2021 0.782583774 0.157752437 0.05806288
1/31/2022 0.708271144 0.194267377 0.095843301
2/28/2022 0.797167747 0.095897398 0.105325163
3/31/2022 0.815329352 0.057715842 0.125332128
4/30/2022 0.788028518 0.088338788 0.122015331
5/31/2022 0.790604903 0.084948398 0.122822482
6/30/2022 0.802398897 0.067569826 0.128395801
7/31/2022 0.77823299 0.113757285 0.106365018
8/31/2022 0.790394347 0.136326565 0.07162819
9/30/2022 0.779393877 0.135914467 0.083061965
10/31/2022 0.797595054 0.139687213 0.061153012
11/30/2022 0.727326301 0.184353822 0.086716954
12/31/2022 0.515947399 0.355561288 0.126893631
1/31/2023 0.74994176 0.195841384 0.052618442
2/28/2023 0.664229542 0.269046103 0.065098195
3/31/2023 0.680804552 0.183172143 0.134411079
4/30/2023 0.621720637 0.265551473 0.111101796
5/31/2023 0.64711184 0.226002398 0.125294422
6/30/2023 0.615092997 0.300874011 0.082407288
7/31/2023 0.628252319 0.26491746 0.105194287
8/31/2023 0.66757181 0.25537868 0.075418504
9/30/2023 0.660939108 0.21770575 0.11973472
10/31/2023 0.607179477 0.246873031 0.144334823
11/30/2023 0.594414006 0.244365435 0.159606048
12/31/2023 0.6438473 0.192523764 0.162010275
1/31/2024 0.546485928 0.273880884 0.178033311
2/29/2024 0.595544019 0.330472675 0.072386502
3/31/2024 0.614623087 0.28361535 0.100185224
4/30/2024 0.562961842 0.332575069 0.102919239
5/31/2024 0.588251506 0.3065569 0.10368251
6/30/2024 0.574140318 0.302714623 0.121638273
7/31/2024 0.518944185 0.348521179 0.131043339
8/31/2024 0.530302023 0.3256847 0.142504947
9/30/2024 0.520050271 0.371615954 0.106825635
10/31/2024 0.566168223 0.349457412 0.082859874
11/30/2024 0.600854848 0.316002335 0.081619325
12/31/2024 0.578724928 0.317589916 0.102168196
1/31/2025 0.635284673 0.308618204 0.054574055
2/28/2025 0.593390274 0.340808139 0.064279042
3/31/2025 0.68964078 0.241356282 0.067485958
4/30/2025 0.723341464 0.228337782 0.046785712
5/31/2025 0.621001022 0.34745174 0.030003651
6/30/2025 0.623158912 0.328492783 0.046801144
7/31/2025 0.72922802 0.233682801 0.035556845
8/31/2025 0.678587127 0.29702354 0.022861887
9/30/2025 0.596442354 0.362007416 0.040022325
10/31/2025 0.733863532 0.203432821 0.061186972
11/30/2025 0.589487498 0.368289562 0.040727003
12/31/2025 0.56205489 0.37046908 0.066000057

Bottom Left
Canada Goods Industries
Weighted share of good industries

Date Above 3% 0% to 3% Below 0%
1/31/2014 0.511019407 0.133502221 0.31089058
2/28/2014 0.542544983 0.173263977 0.23655275
3/31/2014 0.69648233 0.045198783 0.214867505
4/30/2014 0.470057171 0.232116185 0.254691389
5/31/2014 0.498652921 0.18201195 0.282785668
6/30/2014 0.565892403 0.187262024 0.216920897
7/31/2014 0.593662064 0.129570919 0.243462856
8/31/2014 0.362634604 0.228754334 0.369623844
9/30/2014 0.556150417 0.186547347 0.227929037
10/31/2014 0.354343999 0.232903906 0.368130656
11/30/2014 0.337530746 0.148964038 0.471607253
12/31/2014 0.364989671 0.188969523 0.408720446
1/31/2015 0.423087168 0.122823803 0.407696663
2/28/2015 0.463887076 0.04445279 0.451272434
3/31/2015 0.278031027 0.316026202 0.364334363
4/30/2015 0.495622743 0.208687497 0.243216572
5/31/2015 0.220687785 0.157045417 0.585684624
6/30/2015 0.40487075 0.161884653 0.398488354
7/31/2015 0.359115981 0.072986133 0.536081809
8/31/2015 0.234929342 0.205636325 0.515894782
9/30/2015 0.32260768 0.146818567 0.496428815
10/31/2015 0.338600985 0.165751474 0.445196102
11/30/2015 0.384288368 0.203451684 0.362940007
12/31/2015 0.38603369 0.134796282 0.425983886
1/31/2016 0.271780334 0.233845619 0.444408071
2/29/2016 0.408200972 0.14344274 0.400751438
3/31/2016 0.45915215 0.146783903 0.357351442
4/30/2016 0.282403837 0.222155815 0.44498033
5/31/2016 0.279559877 0.293111692 0.387852516
6/30/2016 0.254787604 0.233812121 0.464290364
7/31/2016 0.421098745 0.123713769 0.422096876
8/31/2016 0.333699518 0.239995586 0.388951488
9/30/2016 0.29705872 0.117763266 0.542848784
10/31/2016 0.238724321 0.140808952 0.578762568
11/30/2016 0.378437996 0.245508021 0.335067957
12/31/2016 0.351395782 0.177572097 0.42307905
1/31/2017 0.410670625 0.198608016 0.354537934
2/28/2017 0.318733328 0.19912977 0.450537373
3/31/2017 0.37458882 0.110455346 0.486902759
4/30/2017 0.282871272 0.075562805 0.61388023
5/31/2017 0.27588609 0.197333577 0.490201854
6/30/2017 0.237078897 0.104248024 0.615290152
7/31/2017 0.340385196 0.099232426 0.523861091
8/31/2017 0.446915325 0.077206577 0.445431924
9/30/2017 0.499893278 0.141744087 0.320834055
10/31/2017 0.406055756 0.315181188 0.247619661
11/30/2017 0.508768709 0.099082935 0.342611006
12/31/2017 0.369200493 0.180953246 0.418330305
1/31/2018 0.343628495 0.227445985 0.371181775
2/28/2018 0.470084374 0.095322434 0.369210224
3/31/2018 0.500400475 0.121674735 0.32607727
4/30/2018 0.422024693 0.09015378 0.438731044
5/31/2018 0.532810016 0.1360497 0.29217082
6/30/2018 0.631704289 0.069736298 0.259832226
7/31/2018 0.529808415 0.1351139 0.293023257
8/31/2018 0.508800125 0.08396081 0.359007933
9/30/2018 0.183281268 0.269820896 0.5039315
10/31/2018 0.314405293 0.078593981 0.560302924
11/30/2018 0.352575152 0.114159629 0.471473216
12/31/2018 0.434397545 0.050144346 0.467641002
1/31/2019 0.387166621 0.205376448 0.345923247
2/28/2019 0.320868456 0.177390255 0.435685132
3/31/2019 0.399014434 0.214692313 0.326305785
4/30/2019 0.360352704 0.207749604 0.377650261
5/31/2019 0.446608709 0.1579567 0.357061011
6/30/2019 0.360802153 0.256032328 0.361248599
7/31/2019 0.44354331 0.15280612 0.374407294
8/31/2019 0.528793395 0.207485613 0.226984522
9/30/2019 0.682440133 0.126678945 0.159961959
10/31/2019 0.638814714 0.1256015 0.189872021
11/30/2019 0.43631346 0.118711723 0.394512461
12/31/2019 0.644649902 0.067213119 0.254818206
1/31/2020 0.675825486 0.046059967 0.220845001
2/29/2020 0.601934832 0.150607122 0.191182642
3/31/2020 0.369145864 0.136480307 0.428490649
4/30/2020 0.377370256 0.288457039 0.264321099
5/31/2020 0.431856412 0.115729817 0.392834429
6/30/2020 0.474185513 0.175050504 0.310775551
7/31/2020 0.446173116 0.236180371 0.271577682
8/31/2020 0.310624786 0.285263282 0.351022063
9/30/2020 0.367584017 0.122396303 0.464274855
10/31/2020 0.346146459 0.18336946 0.41880196
11/30/2020 0.517431103 0.15762916 0.273529661
12/31/2020 0.364534211 0.030540828 0.557841626
1/31/2021 0.309340801 0.255433781 0.39183362
2/28/2021 0.546439491 0.073268042 0.335735869
3/31/2021 0.594208482 0.154538209 0.209945726
4/30/2021 0.511120502 0.100029068 0.331619917
5/31/2021 0.598270852 0.067338936 0.298864098
6/30/2021 0.579352603 0.217470033 0.172291633
7/31/2021 0.650375979 0.108043484 0.212297891
8/31/2021 0.547779569 0.175337233 0.240649427
9/30/2021 0.523008942 0.099126694 0.350725928
10/31/2021 0.612261621 0.081140309 0.273463033
11/30/2021 0.597750392 0.078785739 0.291090647
12/31/2021 0.700005159 0.055497164 0.196418546
1/31/2022 0.518970703 0.26603323 0.177392881
2/28/2022 0.493859491 0.185369055 0.28774741
3/31/2022 0.714887106 0.113334472 0.140004212
4/30/2022 0.425485555 0.230537847 0.304103418
5/31/2022 0.533339807 0.162982385 0.275054814
6/30/2022 0.582217769 0.26386652 0.125874529
7/31/2022 0.544334481 0.220424918 0.197478947
8/31/2022 0.438753773 0.300301842 0.22519747
9/30/2022 0.599459433 0.150222131 0.215985023
10/31/2022 0.581586521 0.115173339 0.269133368
11/30/2022 0.525713568 0.289392842 0.156214407
12/31/2022 0.325945182 0.277247652 0.342578789
1/31/2023 0.668239659 0.123307699 0.173894608
2/28/2023 0.56735753 0.215930812 0.176001381
3/31/2023 0.521935665 0.174903328 0.271670916
4/30/2023 0.65452644 0.097570178 0.208339481
5/31/2023 0.700369214 0.120821436 0.144603202
6/30/2023 0.4745274 0.266199842 0.226608934
7/31/2023 0.549320954 0.201861257 0.205239097
8/31/2023 0.520477671 0.248725187 0.189721932
9/30/2023 0.389482933 0.279204217 0.290511342
10/31/2023 0.585988346 0.196522866 0.175090025
11/30/2023 0.54282992 0.188988993 0.239607145
12/31/2023 0.604092159 0.12867796 0.22622349
1/31/2024 0.352776552 0.321843903 0.287285795
2/29/2024 0.483284302 0.213137999 0.257395324
3/31/2024 0.312969363 0.239899662 0.413851605
4/30/2024 0.348924911 0.220969759 0.387094667
5/31/2024 0.495725861 0.264284273 0.187989807
6/30/2024 0.505444741 0.197772199 0.256973797
7/31/2024 0.387124505 0.155062322 0.418058707
8/31/2024 0.499745859 0.295874508 0.156906594
9/30/2024 0.492836772 0.263662985 0.197821353
10/31/2024 0.396963253 0.259372809 0.303015741
11/30/2024 0.346783644 0.37871724 0.232081932
12/31/2024 0.347547478 0.286065203 0.330879062
1/31/2025 0.522286013 0.25513841 0.195239087
2/28/2025 0.469730082 0.229972536 0.258134282
3/31/2025 0.534149564 0.235108821 0.201290577
4/30/2025 0.592916238 0.171306769 0.198167661
5/31/2025 0.362277917 0.2829839 0.302620095
6/30/2025 0.440524877 0.31222121 0.205385441
7/31/2025 0.531130957 0.228202861 0.202505034
8/31/2025 0.536258803 0.136439045 0.28793626
9/30/2025 0.602845081 0.103166758 0.245901714
10/31/2025 0.451140164 0.177700711 0.32915679
11/30/2025 0.534092631 0.185772511 0.228394774

Bottom Right
Canada Services Industries
Weighted share of services industries

Date Above 3% 0% to 3% Below 0%
1/31/2014 0.461506203 0.301321678 0.224664589
2/28/2014 0.414973885 0.227573879 0.352058761
3/31/2014 0.372211758 0.261633766 0.347977669
4/30/2014 0.440642378 0.255469372 0.282668745
5/31/2014 0.37112677 0.169564038 0.441010711
6/30/2014 0.386201876 0.268857893 0.328033083
7/31/2014 0.464024899 0.202108603 0.328108084
8/31/2014 0.431850586 0.244302433 0.319732125
9/30/2014 0.462886082 0.229382134 0.300071122
10/31/2014 0.418420468 0.253778602 0.321744826
11/30/2014 0.261786603 0.419438452 0.312176932
12/31/2014 0.387878673 0.332536474 0.274359004
1/31/2015 0.478897398 0.297760628 0.2157063
2/28/2015 0.354831836 0.366278906 0.271761994
3/31/2015 0.483118696 0.270726505 0.224254329
4/30/2015 0.476115546 0.166257775 0.334322697
5/31/2015 0.367691157 0.317169865 0.298535002
6/30/2015 0.450922011 0.262514259 0.271886591
7/31/2015 0.413156359 0.220858729 0.359569614
8/31/2015 0.493354003 0.190425718 0.310607985
9/30/2015 0.458716124 0.267833437 0.264087674
10/31/2015 0.368712509 0.240941738 0.382019164
11/30/2015 0.384284302 0.330162078 0.27043418
12/31/2015 0.471368275 0.184354744 0.337305839
1/31/2016 0.262017354 0.264675573 0.455884986
2/29/2016 0.317406346 0.265087768 0.391775046
3/31/2016 0.265780446 0.353280234 0.361374683
4/30/2016 0.390609012 0.199306633 0.387392769
5/31/2016 0.311710981 0.274837433 0.397980692
6/30/2016 0.330891179 0.195406362 0.459853496
7/31/2016 0.257400389 0.244527725 0.493123912
8/31/2016 0.348702634 0.232241334 0.414298686
9/30/2016 0.311775851 0.28594414 0.397690127
10/31/2016 0.270296168 0.321695263 0.400314954
11/30/2016 0.329543851 0.236860261 0.42132676
12/31/2016 0.286320124 0.377277236 0.32973409
1/31/2017 0.438452578 0.260527703 0.285180553
2/28/2017 0.281726969 0.302394831 0.38985364
3/31/2017 0.407403728 0.270726342 0.306784857
4/30/2017 0.493813202 0.220173076 0.267898823
5/31/2017 0.501821284 0.216979054 0.262517226
6/30/2017 0.461364576 0.211097361 0.311201482
7/31/2017 0.404805251 0.297608872 0.29391778
8/31/2017 0.444303877 0.215817846 0.336857716
9/30/2017 0.469902506 0.21481619 0.308513573
10/31/2017 0.522963011 0.241748425 0.227912335
11/30/2017 0.536411504 0.227120049 0.227309694
12/31/2017 0.454211076 0.282491734 0.248784673
1/31/2018 0.487070428 0.209037949 0.297840662
2/28/2018 0.533487089 0.301043413 0.158279238
3/31/2018 0.478636538 0.270050123 0.244111662
4/30/2018 0.39753842 0.291796838 0.300429824
5/31/2018 0.456146842 0.275712522 0.258626565
6/30/2018 0.567715037 0.226400313 0.198052658
7/31/2018 0.511723837 0.279233571 0.205434812
8/31/2018 0.455948902 0.346236491 0.195285735
9/30/2018 0.397118211 0.238954923 0.356936322
10/31/2018 0.492364436 0.275101239 0.219497687
11/30/2018 0.363016668 0.407128376 0.22008373
12/31/2018 0.372097938 0.39554456 0.215168227
1/31/2019 0.342214924 0.379302553 0.266899961
2/28/2019 0.373285282 0.301524079 0.310353273
3/31/2019 0.428389182 0.308051648 0.256838944
4/30/2019 0.438595511 0.304066856 0.247339695
5/31/2019 0.415792399 0.325513088 0.24572944
6/30/2019 0.424793922 0.224852099 0.342818059
7/31/2019 0.530011271 0.162511894 0.301543198
8/31/2019 0.526140217 0.231522196 0.236664984
9/30/2019 0.663830108 0.135900963 0.196942012
10/31/2019 0.607405977 0.18334445 0.199283918
11/30/2019 0.490885814 0.278638855 0.2207045
12/31/2019 0.498437944 0.248795935 0.23235475
1/31/2020 0.494232262 0.297849287 0.188158659
2/29/2020 0.497516473 0.276939339 0.209891669
3/31/2020 0.403035207 0.324083213 0.268758922
4/30/2020 0.735984901 0.115919704 0.13940175
5/31/2020 0.666108488 0.169816361 0.147938562
6/30/2020 0.613237415 0.214125751 0.163275488
7/31/2020 0.635804995 0.231778494 0.125721422
8/31/2020 0.634579201 0.196824848 0.162613188
9/30/2020 0.688425286 0.167590472 0.141802653
10/31/2020 0.652234099 0.164258533 0.180817388
11/30/2020 0.641590502 0.177692888 0.173083357
12/31/2020 0.659536105 0.140460735 0.186611371
1/31/2021 0.710294013 0.107253637 0.16825203
2/28/2021 0.660372364 0.219260412 0.111670361
3/31/2021 0.677740478 0.176560854 0.14023951
4/30/2021 0.337354509 0.236232081 0.409737001
5/31/2021 0.334977281 0.125561217 0.527140865
6/30/2021 0.301082575 0.210373694 0.482662817
7/31/2021 0.315246003 0.296976148 0.378907955
8/31/2021 0.474781304 0.187682616 0.334352913
9/30/2021 0.521450745 0.062476864 0.413931102
10/31/2021 0.365636801 0.230854258 0.39945358
11/30/2021 0.382222995 0.259015741 0.356024682
12/31/2021 0.408521131 0.236783903 0.344012842
1/31/2022 0.359534721 0.342073868 0.288227176
2/28/2022 0.420703352 0.227017673 0.343727003
3/31/2022 0.515797227 0.198865429 0.27912506
4/30/2022 0.523267317 0.169603576 0.293037298
5/31/2022 0.566007682 0.256448259 0.167218135
6/30/2022 0.523139086 0.074294298 0.398716067
7/31/2022 0.441779506 0.260951014 0.286642438
8/31/2022 0.433303453 0.267458843 0.295050421
9/30/2022 0.401424528 0.296112752 0.298919413
10/31/2022 0.468104843 0.302066714 0.225774562
11/30/2022 0.523781418 0.274667823 0.197571526
12/31/2022 0.509054704 0.195327952 0.286514928
1/31/2023 0.451675558 0.211678574 0.332093868
2/28/2023 0.341468122 0.299699475 0.350602981
3/31/2023 0.308979034 0.378450757 0.304514191
4/30/2023 0.507187464 0.231061739 0.256042061
5/31/2023 0.494975598 0.338466322 0.160605301
6/30/2023 0.586182908 0.112828392 0.296769628
7/31/2023 0.709425848 0.178529261 0.106411673
8/31/2023 0.68102364 0.115697838 0.197768319
9/30/2023 0.633448208 0.126833676 0.229999204
10/31/2023 0.650929783 0.14189339 0.20213794
11/30/2023 0.643530216 0.175065702 0.171843456
12/31/2023 0.471034053 0.303305928 0.217068202
1/31/2024 0.575589013 0.196739897 0.221316914
2/29/2024 0.589559591 0.255981814 0.139234622
3/31/2024 0.577012932 0.267965052 0.143143764
4/30/2024 0.570097247 0.215549824 0.207645679
5/31/2024 0.562773357 0.267125307 0.162789402
6/30/2024 0.651935899 0.165261676 0.174340571
7/31/2024 0.702150503 0.15120383 0.136871485
8/31/2024 0.647845974 0.259489684 0.08470603
9/30/2024 0.755548585 0.070590108 0.146717204
10/31/2024 0.615483041 0.224022014 0.138286601
11/30/2024 0.609877016 0.229592819 0.146619618
12/31/2024 0.65093628 0.141459937 0.201049181
1/31/2025 0.644846423 0.163275653 0.186363551
2/28/2025 0.726168498 0.110328629 0.151669753
3/31/2025 0.635319445 0.130259458 0.22731909
4/30/2025 0.637684694 0.203866493 0.151883038
5/31/2025 0.583700661 0.174639058 0.234367895
6/30/2025 0.610006539 0.186371185 0.193513819
7/31/2025 0.552761658 0.182236282 0.256376022
8/31/2025 0.576061261 0.120750363 0.290448753
9/30/2025 0.527854132 0.212126328 0.234357957
10/31/2025 0.409495761 0.292790616 0.272452667
11/30/2025 0.433022527 0.206995161 0.350501896

Note: Diffusion indices are constructed from data on weekly average earnings of 106 goods industries and 184 services industries for the U.S. and 70 goods industries and 143 services industries for Canada. Industries are at the 4-digit NAICS level and are weighted by their employment share. Data extend through December 2025 for the U.S. and November 2025 for Canada.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 7: Diffusion Indexes for 12-month Wage Growth Rising More than 3 Percent

United States

Weighted share of industries Goods Services
2014 to 2019 average 41.908 48.69191
Current average 66.15974 64.827772

Canada

Weighted share of industries Goods Services
2014 to 2019 average 40.95328 42.25967
Current average 49.24241 50.61854

Note: Diffusion indices are constructed from 213 industries for the U.S. and 290 industries for Canada. Industries are weighted by their employment share. Current average extends from July 2025 to December 2025 for the U.S. and June 2025 to November 2025 for Canada.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations

Return to text

Figure 1A: Diffusion Indexes for 12-month Core Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies

Top Left
United States
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 14.3657519 73.56357488 12.07067322
2/15/2014 15.16982642 64.4480016 20.38217198
3/15/2014 16.63914988 61.48650677 21.87434335
4/15/2014 21.36782069 63.69021413 14.94196518
5/15/2014 26.41146985 60.701958 12.88657215
6/15/2014 26.32142393 57.77246396 15.90611212
7/15/2014 25.5255706 61.71864838 12.75578103
8/15/2014 24.37294274 56.94690398 18.68015328
9/15/2014 21.69571569 56.18133792 22.12294639
10/15/2014 25.51856633 52.70314892 21.77828475
11/15/2014 25.44945225 53.85223351 20.69831424
12/15/2014 30.57537042 49.68435165 19.74027793
1/15/2015 27.82558233 52.04114304 20.13327463
2/15/2015 28.29367382 52.25648928 19.44983689
3/15/2015 24.81164641 55.0572815 20.13107209
4/15/2015 27.26745117 52.49459654 20.23795229
5/15/2015 23.9192651 52.50370252 23.57703238
6/15/2015 24.20552331 49.34160496 26.45287172
7/15/2015 23.2306553 51.06781154 25.70153317
8/15/2015 48.68502692 24.88441447 26.43055861
9/15/2015 49.97948585 24.69904234 25.32147182
10/15/2015 45.59391574 28.66906835 25.73701591
11/15/2015 47.35067196 28.52167996 24.12764808
12/15/2015 45.5066194 34.62116205 19.87221855
1/15/2016 46.2770112 33.0793263 20.64366251
2/15/2016 51.90177659 28.04194123 20.05628217
3/15/2016 48.98110411 28.22466779 22.79422809
4/15/2016 48.98459875 28.43824478 22.57715648
5/15/2016 50.01051504 22.61634137 27.3731436
6/15/2016 48.58848153 24.42392621 26.98759226
7/15/2016 47.51694924 24.82950619 27.65354457
8/15/2016 47.7703562 28.27386615 23.95577765
9/15/2016 47.92841334 26.98821244 25.08337423
10/15/2016 49.30150115 27.60948156 23.08901729
11/15/2016 49.38464466 30.74373379 19.87162155
12/15/2016 53.29307738 27.83168604 18.87523658
1/15/2017 53.94160949 27.23621614 18.82217437
2/15/2017 54.25721553 25.18076392 20.56202055
3/15/2017 53.93359708 26.26571185 19.80069107
4/15/2017 51.2479218 29.12585381 19.62622439
5/15/2017 49.76314234 32.45100101 17.78585664
6/15/2017 44.57208673 32.8008413 22.62707196
7/15/2017 48.2392885 28.55297158 23.20773992
8/15/2017 46.87653369 31.22464719 21.89881912
9/15/2017 47.00438676 31.08887687 21.90673637
10/15/2017 49.76964064 28.59761228 21.63274709
11/15/2017 49.1841702 27.88845819 22.92737162
12/15/2017 47.92642877 26.92438624 25.14918499
1/15/2018 47.71077582 28.98649393 23.30273025
2/15/2018 50.35390699 25.21299494 24.43309806
3/15/2018 47.56998678 33.08802916 19.34198406
4/15/2018 47.42269073 33.36536825 19.21194102
5/15/2018 49.82880827 28.86332693 21.30786481
6/15/2018 49.6756497 29.85824691 20.46610339
7/15/2018 49.54249675 36.92061267 13.53689058
8/15/2018 47.66128709 38.83504866 13.50366425
9/15/2018 47.5337131 36.88267743 15.58360948
10/15/2018 48.54525431 38.32699239 13.1277533
11/15/2018 52.48598318 34.00981177 13.50420505
12/15/2018 48.96931471 30.79841818 20.23226711
1/15/2019 45.77046686 38.5328541 15.69667905
2/15/2019 46.51276866 33.95333006 19.53390127
3/15/2019 47.53814425 34.40290737 18.05894838
4/15/2019 51.12076647 37.0228358 11.85639773
5/15/2019 43.39486646 36.70764426 19.89748929
6/15/2019 49.00194206 33.10909564 17.8889623
7/15/2019 49.26173959 33.64565502 17.09260538
8/15/2019 46.76578065 35.83320819 17.40101116
9/15/2019 44.92496822 39.48503869 15.58999309
10/15/2019 50.05205622 34.9937933 14.95415048
11/15/2019 48.9443282 31.24067715 19.81499464
12/15/2019 52.75728661 30.86637534 16.37633805
1/15/2020 50.12881302 33.36908688 16.5021001
2/15/2020 53.2546158 33.29891947 13.44646473
3/15/2020 49.51532223 31.75616749 18.72851028
4/15/2020 52.48378397 24.9140325 22.60218352
5/15/2020 54.00070179 20.33786155 25.66143666
6/15/2020 28.11680187 50.04439601 21.83880211
7/15/2020 30.05864368 48.99503784 20.94631848
8/15/2020 24.3248391 57.61372978 18.06143112
9/15/2020 24.14304449 62.70957329 13.14738223
10/15/2020 22.43678996 63.32909579 14.23411425
11/15/2020 22.65584789 61.7750058 15.56914631
12/15/2020 24.68115826 59.85301195 15.46582979
1/15/2021 26.33006889 57.61833201 16.05159911
2/15/2021 24.77986787 60.70906248 14.51106965
3/15/2021 31.88323936 53.88983589 14.22692475
4/15/2021 35.0627995 54.40403531 10.5331652
5/15/2021 40.2455758 50.24214541 9.51227879
6/15/2021 42.51102433 48.27193009 9.217045581
7/15/2021 42.03628219 52.58293648 5.380781338
8/15/2021 43.96509106 49.23472734 6.800181607
9/15/2021 46.5464708 48.28080229 5.172726906
10/15/2021 73.96230603 21.5035212 4.534172771
11/15/2021 80.28274185 15.05635665 4.660901505
12/15/2021 79.3100345 15.94820259 4.741762912
1/15/2022 82.63480355 15.60337733 1.761819124
2/15/2022 83.89066087 14.60699267 1.502346464
3/15/2022 86.35901155 11.60405774 2.036930702
4/15/2022 85.18145263 13.09119494 1.727352434
5/15/2022 85.93792173 11.40500825 2.657070025
6/15/2022 87.05275252 9.030619444 3.916628031
7/15/2022 86.76181549 9.365708123 3.872476389
8/15/2022 86.4444534 9.600459613 3.955086984
9/15/2022 85.58648608 7.938427708 6.475086211
10/15/2022 82.761882 13.34275648 3.895361527
11/15/2022 80.01954916 13.84967301 6.130777835
12/15/2022 78.22423266 12.58268867 9.193078671
1/15/2023 78.52325957 15.79308674 5.683653691
2/15/2023 76.64684563 12.78204598 10.5711084
3/15/2023 74.91293731 12.47798415 12.60907854
4/15/2023 74.3203082 12.04883174 13.63086006
5/15/2023 75.38500025 8.941812178 15.67318757
6/15/2023 76.44975033 9.297415216 14.25283446
7/15/2023 73.8832406 9.698595045 16.41816435
8/15/2023 62.92496744 21.31829518 15.75673738
9/15/2023 68.35980107 16.87230444 14.76789449
10/15/2023 63.25781083 17.84969428 18.89249489
11/15/2023 65.91920035 14.58628096 19.49451869
12/15/2023 65.08063548 14.11721157 20.80215295
1/15/2024 64.23199131 17.42247516 18.34553352
2/15/2024 63.19075492 15.76367002 21.04557507
3/15/2024 63.3795025 15.1784906 21.4420069
4/15/2024 63.71397971 15.56803945 20.71798084
5/15/2024 62.01877171 17.70513784 20.27609045
6/15/2024 61.77362987 16.28731362 21.93905651
7/15/2024 61.42403969 14.72741322 23.84854709
8/15/2024 58.62414259 18.57808041 22.797777
9/15/2024 59.89640953 18.79814945 21.30544101
10/15/2024 62.25600276 15.61582311 22.12817412
11/15/2024 62.77968582 17.05041966 20.16989453
12/15/2024 57.538634 20.62214749 21.83921851
1/15/2025 55.60915175 26.48949458 17.90135367
2/15/2025 59.04959223 21.29124646 19.65916131
3/15/2025 57.46755546 22.29392784 20.23851671
4/15/2025 60.2905471 24.78856426 14.92088864
5/15/2025 59.14434283 25.75267077 15.1029864
6/15/2025 61.98767693 22.73394106 15.27838202
7/15/2025 68.03000845 20.17325095 11.7967406
8/15/2025 68.00566001 16.93422781 15.06011218
9/15/2025 68.34774256 21.8120874 9.840170049
10/15/2025 61.57529189 23.92548875 14.49921936
11/15/2025 51.81169757 34.77073568 13.41756674
12/15/2025 53.84515446 32.14239314 14.0124524
1/15/2026 56.26807073 28.20707916 15.52485011

Top Right
Canada
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 18.1511471 63.49527665 18.35357625
2/15/2014 20.29689609 54.02159244 25.68151147
3/15/2014 21.49797571 50.68825911 27.81376518
4/15/2014 22.29419703 55.60053981 22.10526316
5/15/2014 20.93117409 64.1025641 14.96626181
6/15/2014 23.52226721 60.72874494 15.74898785
7/15/2014 17.32793522 67.93522267 14.73684211
8/15/2014 22.34817814 63.44129555 14.21052632
9/15/2014 24.34547908 56.86909582 18.7854251
10/15/2014 23.94062078 60.01349528 16.04588394
11/15/2014 22.28070175 64.35897436 13.36032389
12/15/2014 18.74493927 66.26180837 14.99325236
1/15/2015 20.54429029 66.95570971 12.5
2/15/2015 24.6398079 51.61419424 23.74599787
3/15/2015 24.09284952 61.7796158 14.12753469
4/15/2015 20.45090715 65.95517609 13.59391676
5/15/2015 23.37246531 63.96744931 12.66008538
6/15/2015 24.33297759 61.61953042 14.047492
7/15/2015 26.17395945 63.40715048 10.41889007
8/15/2015 22.81216649 66.82230523 10.36552828
9/15/2015 19.15688367 68.5832444 12.25987193
10/15/2015 19.3303095 68.47652081 12.19316969
11/15/2015 19.58377801 65.72838847 14.68783351
12/15/2015 25.60032017 54.5624333 19.83724653
1/15/2016 28.30843116 46.47812166 25.21344717
2/15/2016 26.44076841 49.67982924 23.87940235
3/15/2016 26.04055496 51.12059765 22.83884739
4/15/2016 26.26734258 52.86819637 20.86446105
5/15/2016 24.37299893 64.3810032 11.24599787
6/15/2016 30.13607257 57.25720384 12.60672359
7/15/2016 30.14941302 52.97491996 16.87566702
8/15/2016 30.44290288 49.9733191 19.58377801
9/15/2016 28.30843116 55.08271078 16.60885806
10/15/2016 28.09498399 54.65581644 17.24919957
11/15/2016 29.00213447 51.01387407 19.98399146
12/15/2016 19.29028815 63.86072572 16.84898613
1/15/2017 36.68989089 49.45444985 13.85565926
2/15/2017 40.17352439 42.02708032 17.79939529
3/15/2017 25.92349152 54.12120415 19.95530432
4/15/2017 26.40988563 59.86591297 13.72420139
5/15/2017 20.99382148 63.9148153 15.09136322
6/15/2017 21.87458919 52.92493756 25.20047325
7/15/2017 18.77218352 65.05849875 16.16931773
8/15/2017 23.3600631 58.01235704 18.62757986
9/15/2017 19.77126331 63.11292231 17.11581438
10/15/2017 18.91678717 63.63875378 17.44445905
11/15/2017 29.07848035 59.27435257 11.64716708
12/15/2017 27.7376101 59.01143683 13.25095307
1/15/2018 18.10174839 65.71578809 16.18246352
2/15/2018 21.11213356 67.47732352 11.41054292
3/15/2018 19.07453661 67.63507296 13.29039043
4/15/2018 20.16563691 67.67451032 12.15985277
5/15/2018 20.07361641 69.22571316 10.70067044
6/15/2018 21.15157092 65.82095438 13.02747469
7/15/2018 25.13474431 62.02182201 12.84343368
8/15/2018 24.89812015 62.92888129 12.17299855
9/15/2018 25.91034573 61.49599054 12.59366373
10/15/2018 27.42211121 59.22176942 13.35611936
11/15/2018 25.94978309 58.82739582 15.22282109
12/15/2018 30.97147364 55.94846852 13.08005784
1/15/2019 25.3953611 60.76700053 13.83763838
2/15/2019 22.64101212 58.6056932 18.75329468
3/15/2019 20.62467053 67.27727992 12.09804955
4/15/2019 27.70163416 58.17079599 14.12756985
5/15/2019 39.7469689 51.88455456 8.368476542
6/15/2019 30.45598313 53.37374802 16.17026885
7/15/2019 26.84501845 55.7459146 17.40906695
8/15/2019 34.89720611 49.56510279 15.53769109
9/15/2019 34.71270427 44.49130206 20.79599367
10/15/2019 33.82973115 42.75171323 23.41855561
11/15/2019 31.66842383 55.23194518 13.099631
12/15/2019 31.89246178 47.61465472 20.4928835
1/15/2020 24.01159726 61.92672641 14.06167633
2/15/2020 24.27517132 62.54612546 13.17870322
3/15/2020 21.04638904 63.9298893 15.02372167
4/15/2020 22.00843437 58.67158672 19.31997891
5/15/2020 22.23247232 57.09014233 20.67738535
6/15/2020 16.93463363 63.45545598 19.60991038
7/15/2020 23.55034265 56.72113864 19.72851871
8/15/2020 14.97100685 65.36636795 19.6626252
9/15/2020 14.14074855 67.17185029 18.68740116
10/15/2020 24.44649446 53.71639431 21.83711123
11/15/2020 24.94728519 52.25355825 22.79915656
12/15/2020 26.25197681 51.92409067 21.82393253
1/15/2021 23.04955192 54.1117554 22.83869267
2/15/2021 23.56352135 54.01950448 22.41697417
3/15/2021 35.33210332 43.75329468 20.914602
4/15/2021 38.28413284 42.84396415 18.871903
5/15/2021 45.0975224 33.96151819 20.94095941
6/15/2021 45.54925491 35.7905842 18.66016089
7/15/2021 47.51417645 37.68956877 14.79625478
8/15/2021 50.21759198 32.03217724 17.75023078
9/15/2021 46.39324805 36.55545299 17.05129896
10/15/2021 49.38678623 32.94210735 17.67110642
11/15/2021 51.97151523 30.02769352 18.00079124
12/15/2021 51.2857708 34.02347356 14.69075564
1/15/2022 61.32137676 23.56587103 15.11275221
2/15/2022 60.92575498 24.22524067 14.84900435
3/15/2022 59.13226955 24.02742978 16.84030067
4/15/2022 64.88197283 16.15455624 18.96347092
5/15/2022 70.58979809 17.91976621 11.49043571
6/15/2022 71.94473964 16.77736451 11.27789586
7/15/2022 74.09670563 18.9293305 6.973963868
8/15/2022 79.6360255 13.72210414 6.641870351
9/15/2022 80.32678002 11.92879915 7.744420829
10/15/2022 83.40860786 7.903825717 8.687566419
11/15/2022 84.51115834 8.461742827 7.027098831
12/15/2022 77.16524973 16.61795962 6.216790648
1/15/2023 76.71360255 12.11477152 11.17162593
2/15/2023 77.77630181 13.39001063 8.833687566
3/15/2023 67.48140276 17.4946865 15.02391073
4/15/2023 63.88150903 22.25026567 13.86822529
5/15/2023 64.26390548 15.04048852 20.695606
6/15/2023 57.42731979 19.03624054 23.53643967
7/15/2023 50.17921147 24.41258463 25.4082039
8/15/2023 55.44935617 21.50537634 23.04526749
9/15/2023 51.04208151 30.22700119 18.7309173
10/15/2023 52.3828488 26.4701978 21.14695341
11/15/2023 52.8341962 26.82862074 20.33718306
12/15/2023 50.78985796 30.06770211 19.14243993
1/15/2024 49.39599097 29.47033055 21.13367848
2/15/2024 46.86048055 30.50577459 22.63374486
3/15/2024 44.23204567 30.10752688 25.66042745
4/15/2024 42.41338112 31.129696 26.45692287
5/15/2024 44.63857029 31.24833289 24.11309683
6/15/2024 40.19738597 25.55348093 34.2491331
7/15/2024 38.03680982 24.0197386 37.94345159
8/15/2024 37.94345159 24.52654041 37.530008
9/15/2024 40.31741798 24.19311816 35.48946386
10/15/2024 39.05041344 24.5398773 36.40970926
11/15/2024 39.22379301 23.57962123 37.19658576
12/15/2024 38.50360096 25.91357695 35.58282209
1/15/2025 40.75753534 36.99653241 22.24593225
2/15/2025 44.83862363 32.32862097 22.8327554
3/15/2025 44.54521206 39.94398506 15.51080288
4/15/2025 49.63990397 34.382502 15.97759403
5/15/2025 52.94504339 27.18906127 19.86589535
6/15/2025 53.93110702 30.23928478 15.8296082
7/15/2025 56.88929792 23.67867473 19.43202735
8/15/2025 54.0888772 26.63686563 19.27425717
9/15/2025 53.5629766 27.7412569 18.6957665
10/15/2025 47.01551407 31.31738101 21.66710492
11/15/2025 49.27688667 30.29187484 20.4312385
12/15/2025 47.52826716 30.68630029 21.78543255
1/15/2026 38.61425191 39.88956087 21.49618722

Bottom Left
United Kingdom
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 8.125819135 71.95281782 19.92136304
2/15/2014 10.22280472 68.15203145 21.62516383
3/15/2014 8.256880734 75.6225426 16.12057667
4/15/2014 15.46526868 69.72477064 14.80996068
5/15/2014 6.946264744 65.66186107 27.39187418
6/15/2014 15.59633028 71.29750983 13.1061599
7/15/2014 17.56225426 62.7785059 19.65923984
8/15/2014 14.80996068 67.75884666 17.43119266
9/15/2014 16.38269987 66.31716907 17.30013106
10/15/2014 13.76146789 59.37090433 26.86762779
11/15/2014 13.89252949 55.83224115 30.27522936
12/15/2014 16.64482307 54.25950197 29.09567497
1/15/2015 15.17509728 64.85084306 19.97405966
2/15/2015 15.56420233 60.95979248 23.47600519
3/15/2015 15.04539559 54.60440986 30.35019455
4/15/2015 10.89494163 54.2153048 34.88975357
5/15/2015 15.95330739 60.31128405 23.73540856
6/15/2015 15.56420233 53.307393 31.12840467
7/15/2015 15.04539559 60.95979248 23.99481193
8/15/2015 13.35927367 62.25680934 24.38391699
9/15/2015 12.71076524 57.45784695 29.83138781
10/15/2015 13.61867704 64.72114137 21.66018158
11/15/2015 23.47600519 55.77172503 20.75226978
12/15/2015 15.17509728 56.29053178 28.53437095
1/15/2016 12.18274112 71.06598985 16.75126904
2/15/2016 11.16751269 69.79695431 19.03553299
3/15/2016 12.69035533 71.44670051 15.86294416
4/15/2016 16.37055838 65.60913706 18.02030457
5/15/2016 16.87817259 58.12182741 25
6/15/2016 23.35025381 46.95431472 29.69543147
7/15/2016 22.71573604 39.34010152 37.94416244
8/15/2016 20.93908629 47.84263959 31.21827411
9/15/2016 23.73096447 53.42639594 22.84263959
10/15/2016 22.58883249 42.25888325 35.15228426
11/15/2016 17.1319797 59.01015228 23.85786802
12/15/2016 18.78172589 61.6751269 19.54314721
1/15/2017 20.95959596 55.17676768 23.86363636
2/15/2017 24.01524778 54.0025413 21.98221093
3/15/2017 20.7115629 60.48284625 18.80559085
4/15/2017 30.87674714 54.51080051 14.61245235
5/15/2017 34.94282084 53.11308767 11.94409149
6/15/2017 34.30749682 51.46124524 14.23125794
7/15/2017 36.59466328 47.39517154 16.01016518
8/15/2017 35.45108005 51.58831004 12.96060991
9/15/2017 44.47268107 45.23506989 10.29224905
10/15/2017 49.8094028 41.6772554 8.513341804
11/15/2017 50.82592122 41.04193139 8.132147395
12/15/2017 48.41168996 42.82083863 8.76747141
1/15/2018 53.52644836 36.77581864 9.697732997
2/15/2018 45.32828283 40.15151515 14.52020202
3/15/2018 28.28282828 59.5959596 12.12121212
4/15/2018 31.31313131 58.33333333 10.35353535
5/15/2018 27.77777778 59.97474747 12.24747475
6/15/2018 29.41919192 56.94444444 13.63636364
7/15/2018 35.35353535 44.57070707 20.07575758
8/15/2018 35.22727273 50.25252525 14.52020202
9/15/2018 31.94444444 49.49494949 18.56060606
10/15/2018 30.80808081 49.11616162 20.07575758
11/15/2018 27.02020202 60.98484848 11.99494949
12/15/2018 29.7979798 52.02020202 18.18181818
1/15/2019 27.72898369 58.09284818 14.17816813
2/15/2019 29.16145181 56.57071339 14.26783479
3/15/2019 27.53441802 58.19774718 14.26783479
4/15/2019 28.0350438 47.43429287 24.53066333
5/15/2019 28.66082603 52.44055069 18.89862328
6/15/2019 28.0350438 58.94868586 13.01627034
7/15/2019 32.91614518 57.07133917 10.01251564
8/15/2019 20.77596996 67.20901126 12.01501877
9/15/2019 24.40550688 59.0738423 16.52065081
10/15/2019 23.40425532 64.70588235 11.88986233
11/15/2019 23.9048811 64.95619524 11.13892365
12/15/2019 20.90112641 56.82102628 22.27784731
1/15/2020 20.40050063 66.45807259 13.14142678
2/15/2020 29.86198243 53.57590966 16.5621079
3/15/2020 26.85069009 52.57214555 20.57716437
4/15/2020 31.99498118 48.93350063 19.07151819
5/15/2020 16.43663739 64.74278545 18.82057716
6/15/2020 21.07904642 61.48055207 17.44040151
7/15/2020 32.99874529 49.43538269 17.56587202
8/15/2020 23.08657465 46.29861982 30.61480552
9/15/2020 22.45922208 55.20702635 22.33375157
10/15/2020 16.5621079 63.98996236 19.44792974
11/15/2020 17.56587202 64.61731493 17.81681305
12/15/2020 17.06398996 59.59849435 23.33751568
1/15/2021 21.32822478 57.72669221 20.94508301
2/15/2021 22.40717029 51.60051216 25.99231754
3/15/2021 22.27912932 53.90524968 23.815621
4/15/2021 21.8950064 56.46606914 21.63892446
5/15/2021 33.41869398 55.31370038 11.26760563
6/15/2021 36.61971831 49.67989757 13.70038412
7/15/2021 23.94366197 62.61203585 13.44430218
8/15/2021 38.92445583 48.01536492 13.06017926
9/15/2021 38.41229193 51.85659411 9.731113956
10/15/2021 49.42381562 32.52240717 18.05377721
11/15/2021 60.9475032 31.37003841 7.682458387
12/15/2021 59.5390525 34.31498079 6.145966709
1/15/2022 66.23376623 27.14285714 6.623376623
2/15/2022 66.88396349 29.98696219 3.129074316
3/15/2022 67.14471969 29.726206 3.129074316
4/15/2022 71.83833116 24.25032595 3.911342894
5/15/2022 71.83833116 24.25032595 3.911342894
6/15/2022 83.57235984 12.77705346 3.650586701
7/15/2022 91.52542373 3.389830508 5.084745763
8/15/2022 85.52803129 10.16949153 4.302477184
9/15/2022 81.22555411 13.16818774 5.606258149
10/15/2022 88.65710561 4.43285528 6.910039113
11/15/2022 85.65840939 5.867014342 8.474576271
12/15/2022 83.31160365 8.213820078 8.474576271
1/15/2023 82.26018397 12.3521682 5.387647832
2/15/2023 83.13570487 10.40843215 6.455862978
3/15/2023 86.56126482 8.695652174 4.743083004
4/15/2023 86.69301713 12.91172596 0.395256917
5/15/2023 93.41238472 5.270092227 1.317523057
6/15/2023 93.67588933 5.006587615 1.317523057
7/15/2023 87.35177866 11.5942029 1.054018445
8/15/2023 86.0342556 10.01317523 3.95256917
9/15/2023 85.11198946 8.563899868 6.324110672
10/15/2023 83.13570487 12.12121212 4.743083004
11/15/2023 75.62582345 16.07378129 8.300395257
12/15/2023 79.31488801 12.12121212 8.563899868
1/15/2024 80.51519066 7.130357599 12.35445175
2/15/2024 78.511125 7.873910214 13.61496479
3/15/2024 76.91721814 8.715685832 14.36709603
4/15/2024 70.71362386 16.85087408 12.43550206
5/15/2024 68.03821098 15.08114517 16.88064385
6/15/2024 58.50790316 25.41593262 16.07616421
7/15/2024 64.01899595 19.76786025 16.2131438
8/15/2024 63.83486156 21.41517227 14.74996617
9/15/2024 57.78753923 25.60386878 16.60859199
10/15/2024 64.53974779 20.2798487 15.1804035
11/15/2024 65.42958032 18.86126128 15.70915839
12/15/2024 61.93954546 26.97929648 11.08115806
1/15/2025 60.82124495 28.98835454 10.19040051
2/15/2025 63.72169255 19.51776163 16.76054583
3/15/2025 65.48733047 21.61015264 12.90251688
4/15/2025 62.66207605 18.3670755 18.97084845
5/15/2025 61.71864351 20.15489331 18.12646318
6/15/2025 65.56172073 23.52899181 10.90928746
7/15/2025 62.29511716 30.21520963 7.489673208
8/15/2025 64.264998 26.94342314 8.791578861
9/15/2025 62.32396625 27.28428954 10.39174421
10/15/2025 63.30300601 27.49033632 9.206657674
11/15/2025 59.97778963 16.18873427 23.8334761
12/15/2025 59.46866863 22.16769845 18.36363292
1/15/2026 58.52163567 28.26633628 13.21202805

Bottom Right
Euro Area
Weighted share of CPI basket (12-month growth)

Period DI, >3% DI, 0 - 3 % DI, <0%
1/15/2014 4.562604705 73.34401632 22.09337898
2/15/2014 3.369509797 81.4290917 15.2013985
3/15/2014 2.153106563 78.65977129 19.18712215
4/15/2014 5.811056887 77.45210868 16.73683444
5/15/2014 2.630927234 70.17262729 27.19644548
6/15/2014 2.976181805 72.75985141 24.26396679
7/15/2014 2.533323622 73.28720227 24.17947411
8/15/2014 2.450287712 81.16541627 16.38429602
9/15/2014 2.546434555 80.21705878 17.23650666
10/15/2014 3.102920825 72.08536674 24.81171243
11/15/2014 3.152451016 75.59181295 21.25573603
12/15/2014 3.183043193 78.73406657 18.08289023
1/15/2015 3.024895668 66.97798244 29.99712189
2/15/2015 2.216146208 71.56857102 26.21528277
3/15/2015 2.286659951 68.21700964 29.49633041
4/15/2015 4.668297597 71.27644265 24.05525975
5/15/2015 4.889912218 72.76298748 22.3471003
6/15/2015 3.744423658 72.48381062 23.77176572
7/15/2015 7.321916823 74.02216146 18.65592172
8/15/2015 6.291552741 70.09497769 23.61346956
9/15/2015 4.47402504 72.42480933 23.10116564
10/15/2015 7.346380774 78.97107497 13.68254425
11/15/2015 2.364368974 80.01726867 17.61836235
12/15/2015 1.748453015 74.67405382 23.57749316
1/15/2016 2.197755423 80.96508279 16.83716179
2/15/2016 2.895815894 77.95150466 19.15267945
3/15/2016 4.71616464 79.13480229 16.14903307
4/15/2016 2.196336601 80.75225947 17.05140392
5/15/2016 1.93101687 79.56754303 18.5014401
6/15/2016 1.874263986 81.8263078 16.29942821
7/15/2016 1.451455002 83.6565883 14.8919567
8/15/2016 1.736638243 73.01258495 25.25077681
9/15/2016 1.736638243 73.51910444 24.74425732
10/15/2016 2.65603496 79.45829372 17.88567132
11/15/2016 1.942367447 81.11405911 16.94357345
12/15/2016 2.48010102 84.1191243 13.40077468
1/15/2017 3.079971691 81.64048125 15.27954706
2/15/2017 3.705590941 71.57820241 24.71620665
3/15/2017 4.236376504 74.81104034 20.95258316
4/15/2017 8.225053079 74.17409766 17.60084926
5/15/2017 5.384288747 74.50530786 20.1104034
6/15/2017 7.231422505 74.89313517 17.87544232
7/15/2017 7.231422505 76.07643312 16.69214437
8/15/2017 7.564048125 74.13021939 18.30573248
9/15/2017 8.584571833 74.89313517 16.52229299
10/15/2017 5.246992215 70.81245577 23.94055202
11/15/2017 7.457891012 69.47204529 23.07006369
12/15/2017 2.328379335 80.60863411 17.06298655
1/15/2018 5.977050622 74.7868885 19.23606088
2/15/2018 3.436733189 85.81195126 10.75131555
3/15/2018 8.833666652 74.97411458 16.19221877
4/15/2018 2.397061118 78.34985745 19.25308143
5/15/2018 8.871962895 78.67324795 12.45478916
6/15/2018 6.230940527 81.36391359 12.40514588
7/15/2018 7.755698339 80.61359091 11.63071075
8/15/2018 7.504645192 71.93169085 20.56366396
9/15/2018 5.133114903 74.83227664 20.03460846
10/15/2018 4.710437854 84.9850361 10.30452605
11/15/2018 2.146007971 85.08999617 12.76399586
12/15/2018 2.107711729 86.83602116 11.05626711
1/15/2019 2.427996371 87.1300601 10.44194353
2/15/2019 2.610840231 85.99614469 11.39301508
3/15/2019 2.561231432 74.1849983 23.25377027
4/15/2019 8.518539517 80.41586348 11.06559701
5/15/2019 2.610840231 84.38881959 13.00034017
6/15/2019 5.261367502 85.1542125 9.584420002
7/15/2019 2.443587708 86.74027668 10.81613562
8/15/2019 3.835468874 86.64105908 9.523472049
9/15/2019 2.660449031 85.18397778 12.15557319
10/15/2019 2.75683184 86.35616283 10.88700533
11/15/2019 7.636920286 79.9665495 12.39653022
12/15/2019 6.84034471 83.92816646 9.231488831
1/15/2020 4.307714044 81.07516248 14.61712348
2/15/2020 4.307714044 87.47244984 8.219836112
3/15/2020 3.208533484 87.29584628 9.495620232
4/15/2020 3.084204578 75.69793727 21.21785815
5/15/2020 4.187623622 78.30884431 17.50353207
6/15/2020 4.732975417 74.14241311 21.12461147
7/15/2020 12.54874258 67.66459452 19.7866629
8/15/2020 4.604408025 65.13987002 30.25572196
9/15/2020 4.539417915 63.63520769 31.8253744
10/15/2020 4.631251766 61.11754733 34.2512009
11/15/2020 4.631251766 58.70302345 36.66572478
12/15/2020 4.865781294 59.61429782 35.51992088
1/15/2021 12.67969846 70.04149135 17.27881019
2/15/2021 8.681042543 70.48416316 20.8347943
3/15/2021 8.530563347 64.09391071 27.37552595
4/15/2021 10.36991585 64.74257831 24.88750584
5/15/2021 9.350163628 72.28991351 18.35992286
6/15/2021 7.839527817 74.95909303 17.20137915
7/15/2021 12.51460963 67.12687003 20.35852034
8/15/2021 27.92046517 63.44962599 8.629908836
9/15/2021 19.58567087 74.31626928 6.098059841
10/15/2021 24.01384993 72.91958859 3.066561477
11/15/2021 25.11103319 71.38996026 3.499006545
12/15/2021 27.57275596 68.53669939 3.890544647
1/15/2022 37.203959 51.5950866 11.2009544
2/15/2022 46.03953105 48.71862849 5.241840462
3/15/2022 46.2147991 48.21344409 5.571756805
4/15/2022 52.68940733 42.37952162 4.93107105
5/15/2022 54.05031224 41.35442441 4.595263344
6/15/2022 52.37274655 39.32043125 8.306822199
7/15/2022 53.41109933 33.14186403 13.44703664
8/15/2022 53.4390833 38.7592789 7.801637799
9/15/2022 60.36879934 32.44521032 7.185990338
10/15/2022 60.56910569 33.63379286 5.797101449
11/15/2022 61.8504772 33.15953812 4.989984682
12/15/2022 62.77394839 32.23606693 4.989984682
1/15/2023 74.92733604 21.76321621 3.309447754
2/15/2023 77.46122191 19.55883623 2.979941869
3/15/2023 79.14472359 17.27387838 3.581398026
4/15/2023 80.29439696 16.83070016 2.874902875
5/15/2023 80.09007453 16.15154393 3.758381536
6/15/2023 80.31166364 17.15013382 2.538202538
7/15/2023 79.7231575 16.88393911 3.392903393
8/15/2023 77.73748885 17.80482892 4.457682235
9/15/2023 70.10849233 25.52591441 4.365593254
10/15/2023 69.58185847 26.11873723 4.299404299
11/15/2023 61.65645055 31.52033152 6.823217934
12/15/2023 58.4952085 36.27874183 5.22604967
1/15/2024 53.88542096 39.45568558 6.658893455
2/15/2024 49.72059095 43.41149203 6.867917016
3/15/2024 48.65414421 44.03998464 7.305871145
4/15/2024 45.29270408 45.7007977 9.006498215
5/15/2024 47.94175779 38.01242766 14.04581455
6/15/2024 47.71851494 39.57228376 12.7092013
7/15/2024 55.72539707 31.53554112 12.73906181
8/15/2024 51.29040056 37.07395453 11.63564492
9/15/2024 45.66240562 40.90605315 13.43154123
10/15/2024 48.17068836 38.54707296 13.28223869
11/15/2024 52.73792427 33.69829511 13.56378062
12/15/2024 53.43751333 32.41002744 14.15245923
1/15/2025 44.8405544 38.49794355 16.66150206
2/15/2025 44.48842188 39.24023889 16.27133923
3/15/2025 44.751817 45.95892726 9.289255733
4/15/2025 47.34492084 44.7095611 7.945518057
5/15/2025 37.52605781 49.55631303 12.91762916
6/15/2025 40.99667587 46.13499352 12.86833061
7/15/2025 40.74314046 50.31973632 8.937123218
8/15/2025 39.42334779 50.73243563 9.844216576
9/15/2025 43.18553158 47.6195842 9.194884219
10/15/2025 43.52639585 49.28587526 7.187728886
11/15/2025 54.95943433 34.83153981 10.20902586
12/15/2025 53.67485492 34.0441715 12.28097358
1/15/2026 37.11783706 48.79155761 14.09060533

Note: Indexes constructed from 65 series for the U.S., 102 series for Canada, 65 series for the U.K., and 104 series for the euro area. Data extend through January 2026 for all counties. Missing U.S. CPI data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 2A: Diffusion Indexes for 12-month Core Inflation, Selected Advanced Economies

Left
Above 3 Percent
Weighted share of CPI Basket

Country U.S. Canada Euro area U.K.
2014 to 2019 average 42.22336126 25.03757133 4.197346196 23.75582112
Current Average 59.97560287 48.3477956 45.31456692 61.3100107

Middle
0 to 3 Percent
Weighted share of CPI Basket

Country U.S. Canada Euro area U.K.
2014 to 2019 average 37.67065348 58.83645863 77.85273415 56.93370851
Current Average 26.29866866 31.09387326 44.21752734 24.72346967

Right
Below 0 Percent
Weighted share of CPI Basket

Country U.S. Canada Euro area U.K.
2014 to 2019 average 20.10598526 16.12597003 17.59988267 19.31047037
Current Average 12.0177322 20.55833114 10.23076517 13.96651963

Note: Current average extends from August 2025 to January 2026 for all countries. Missing U.S. CPI data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 3A: Residuals from Pre-Pandemic Headline Inflation Trend

Left
Below 0 percent
Percentage points

Date U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/1/2014 -1.147847021 -0.738554859 -0.64155646 -0.247511567
2/1/2014 -0.901317458 -0.384123876 -0.3718845 -0.634130192
3/1/2014 -0.389948767 -0.182130179 -1.056825172 -0.351584365
4/1/2014 -0.532415708 0.055480055 -0.823911832 -0.117854399
5/1/2014 -0.531052915 -0.111555678 0.002700831 0.334253878
6/1/2014 -0.331832321 -0.112297317 -0.909011453 0.131280503
7/1/2014 -0.676837419 -0.359331439 -0.397790763 0.010167148
8/1/2014 -0.471221898 -0.070768332 -0.556522013 -0.197844948
9/1/2014 -0.223321544 0.028590962 -0.699430308 0.073278305
10/1/2014 -0.245891465 -0.179487256 0.100372603 0.427865072
11/1/2014 -0.678718992 -0.325011453 0.065514645 -0.107666807
12/1/2014 -1.325166817 -0.808531037 -0.112561079 -0.508025022
1/1/2015 -2.1379512 -1.508925578 -0.850329913 -0.133223949
2/1/2015 -2.131220544 -0.78171879 -0.864847351 -0.348132802
3/1/2015 -2.122425546 -1.146678095 -0.263577309 -0.053543935
4/1/2015 -2.239315297 -1.58737916 -0.043790188 -0.081548218
5/1/2015 -1.798861478 -1.540706849 -0.879493043 0.162168675
6/1/2015 -1.39325424 -1.300469593 -0.321811147 0.192585128
7/1/2015 -1.410655046 -1.238465247 -0.655327799 -0.175905118
8/1/2015 -1.323823034 -1.263936967 -0.774653524 0.029708206
9/1/2015 -1.648323706 -1.362620547 -0.567152133 -0.222323164
10/1/2015 -1.406665733 -1.424998004 -1.101041968 -0.585152642
11/1/2015 -1.21081572 -0.868410879 -0.945781666 -0.627591886
12/1/2015 -1.34104202 -0.367882688 -0.20298588 -0.159238221
1/1/2016 -0.632584431 0.062426402 -1.179158809 -0.659022494
2/1/2016 -1.037279383 -0.403551981 -0.923403693 -0.708355947
3/1/2016 -0.972238656 -0.511492634 -1.104431169 -0.968754255
4/1/2016 -0.717923593 -0.211933892 -1.024561044 -0.810463311
5/1/2016 -0.42029356 -0.803953547 -0.475986298 -0.590471357
6/1/2016 -0.474720547 -0.664560125 -0.095633005 -0.886113233
7/1/2016 -0.588891115 -0.690548048 0.677876777 -0.866306007
8/1/2016 -0.6641958 -0.627609876 0.225193339 -0.2175626
9/1/2016 -0.16843806 -0.44998627 -0.354177186 0.014743148
10/1/2016 -0.163990951 -0.489795821 0.447932371 -0.810359434
11/1/2016 -0.378074861 -0.359700956 -0.165562468 -0.808543522
12/1/2016 -0.079801527 -0.489313254 -0.130874515 -0.712379622
1/1/2017 0.341155183 0.033117055 0.286164608 -0.009749135
2/1/2017 0.725419555 0.258663944 0.617521186 0.637089797
3/1/2017 0.304034042 -0.076388802 -0.365424383 -0.062682616
4/1/2017 0.108436096 -0.376823546 -0.226055624 0.268540084
5/1/2017 -0.371179914 -0.652079438 -0.402024999 -0.432483606
6/1/2017 -0.20534738 -0.306236734 -0.434981526 -0.552657205
7/1/2017 -0.062013577 -0.866158748 -0.345570107 -0.533024171
8/1/2017 0.038881367 -0.576178027 -0.311660104 -0.112650009
9/1/2017 0.333536985 -0.60061572 -0.44039353 -0.42264717
10/1/2017 0.118655016 -0.733018793 -0.757898743 -0.179084949
11/1/2017 0.389007524 -0.392076543 -0.695020677 -0.094970252
12/1/2017 0.482396486 -0.549727676 -0.738976781 -0.488737293
1/1/2018 0.288505767 -0.500462475 -0.599212598 -0.482704592
2/1/2018 0.524875267 -0.317248756 -0.502309776 -1.223635121
3/1/2018 0.244548543 0.10027991 -0.970067669 -0.584908148
4/1/2018 0.336642418 -0.109527801 -1.178569781 -0.386161174
5/1/2018 0.851210323 -0.048393272 -0.978823774 -0.333297664
6/1/2018 0.850941078 0.162896709 -0.877480867 -0.309891988
7/1/2018 0.346052623 0.559202043 -0.25446528 -0.20884355
8/1/2018 0.092922784 0.43825012 -0.595950076 0.273989668
9/1/2018 -0.154329041 -0.283663282 -0.347635344 0.361621509
10/1/2018 -0.115407411 -0.062528929 -0.091714633 -0.171564652
11/1/2018 -0.429610799 -0.518103582 -0.532542327 -0.247718765
12/1/2018 -0.130117215 -0.323092912 -0.426224789 -0.740329771
1/1/2019 -0.870555169 -0.799034596 -0.824275151 -0.523708822
2/1/2019 -0.578884341 -0.55550576 -0.878524064 -0.765245271
3/1/2019 -0.360563587 -0.691411825 -0.821310944 -0.051291891
4/1/2019 -0.74837855 -0.320557746 0.257926754 -0.532448925
5/1/2019 -0.278207671 -0.393796976 -0.585485476 -0.918992401
6/1/2019 -0.588900173 -0.33575469 -1.139159154 -0.693605472
7/1/2019 -0.492906156 -0.232702735 -1.234693554 -0.657300315
8/1/2019 -0.528649299 -0.424275289 -1.344770708 -0.68749325
9/1/2019 -0.71945976 -0.238386348 -1.004508409 -0.690324485
10/1/2019 -0.720205686 -0.02744127 -1.406256723 -1.002532971
11/1/2019 -0.024097254 -0.551451652 -1.528684887 -0.650150684
12/1/2019 -0.079490563 -0.09363901 -1.237881598 -0.919066941
1/1/2020 0.132530218 -0.249726694 -1.488726587 -0.190437606
2/1/2020 -0.276195136 -0.513649299 -0.953246419 -0.691993509
3/1/2020 -0.627438656 -1.302201155 -0.742654622 -0.834238026
4/1/2020 -1.584861132 -2.141416207 -1.375716151 -0.49180748
5/1/2020 -1.465671201 -2.19883133 -1.804997393 -0.987182543
6/1/2020 -1.265349266 -1.367716253 -1.710049968 -0.564246371
7/1/2020 -1.059312438 -1.797559694 -1.282343805 -0.231505749
8/1/2020 -0.913232108 -1.728484985 -0.89370414 -0.16724091
9/1/2020 -1.264901378 -1.456571606 -1.138840984 -0.132420507
10/1/2020 -1.362748827 -1.31095379 -1.389300613 -0.070045726
11/1/2020 -1.257982031 -0.621312664 -1.582426937 0.076782622
12/1/2020 -1.133263759 -0.939221607 -0.656816868 -0.055072344
1/1/2021 -0.99216621 -0.502016233 -0.743409885 -0.47926959
2/1/2021 -0.845303476 -0.800728511 -0.500689096 -0.24965956
3/1/2021 0.074342764 0.11066615 -0.606841768 0.210395361
4/1/2021 1.28532734 1.123986228 -0.636112449 0.587032026
5/1/2021 2.050710965 1.493469483 -0.349420696 0.469337701
6/1/2021 2.418425812 0.85798691 0.049813409 0.264349053
7/1/2021 2.068232683 1.22500094 -0.273265001 0.277391833
8/1/2021 2.081145982 1.694788485 0.288247832 0.308434954
9/1/2021 2.083328763 1.815302828 -0.206272053 0.548481973
10/1/2021 2.861136372 2.168735066 1.345028503 1.187448707
11/1/2021 3.458930186 2.189867431 1.342818063 1.886067538
12/1/2021 3.560908631 2.079839114 1.447796029 2.00526888
1/1/2022 3.88594142 2.435837014 1.545607477 2.618532857
2/1/2022 4.255307121 2.966730588 2.087191138 3.009989373
3/1/2022 4.901927297 4.047573999 2.858123458 4.595764908
4/1/2022 4.661799103 4.266224661 4.902348821 4.561066516
5/1/2022 4.998727331 4.817257596 4.974388479 5.143354032
6/1/2022 5.578155142 5.208344926 5.360488338 5.967733854
7/1/2022 5.038477206 4.434697747 6.077619906 6.505046272
8/1/2022 4.783050172 3.849902526 5.790218804 6.425654208
9/1/2022 4.86160235 3.754216585 6.11013833 7.186884752
10/1/2022 4.330960733 3.81087947 7.160556395 7.779339938
11/1/2022 3.811926519 3.638371722 6.894378192 7.165329521
12/1/2022 3.350951334 3.133979513 6.750739846 6.318169503
1/1/2023 3.084284028 3.107190399 6.047138579 5.65350451
2/1/2023 3.119840985 2.648286752 6.487595104 5.493806869
3/1/2023 2.161462623 1.923003034 6.30758671 4.359566749
4/1/2023 2.271381912 1.980225945 4.597162767 4.37499616
5/1/2023 1.561641016 1.312997993 4.685744577 3.587884273
6/1/2023 0.425937323 0.92820448 3.954746866 2.931327008
7/1/2023 0.741174984 1.481271493 2.813380859 3.243260337
8/1/2023 1.185183307 1.80111379 2.851052181 2.85759189
9/1/2023 1.124195877 1.345706111 3.016261481 1.982338938
10/1/2023 0.920271577 1.126581906 1.30408901 0.943500714
11/1/2023 1.034938408 1.131836677 0.900297432 0.598584658
12/1/2023 1.233554007 1.004741269 0.971470191 0.608689671
1/1/2024 0.808678824 0.874668906 1.160529156 0.910820318
2/1/2024 1.054895706 0.690725825 0.733656692 0.92793031
3/1/2024 1.450619963 0.984886574 0.728078522 0.56401682
4/1/2024 1.313324606 0.842142574 -0.317845224 0.61888073
5/1/2024 1.232439225 0.869159714 -0.626645332 0.940925192
6/1/2024 0.948847574 1.14842955 -0.700290371 0.804549732
7/1/2024 1.15866312 1.45252192 -0.384579933 0.563214768
8/1/2024 0.406818324 1.158955712 -0.019370253 0.671188566
9/1/2024 0.398331424 0.665348068 -0.54174834 0.368543799
10/1/2024 0.703514347 0.950166291 -0.045801049 0.135256076
11/1/2024 0.699755196 0.881168871 0.144374106 0.393762845
12/1/2024 0.862812176 0.854783964 -0.124509776 0.615604907
1/1/2025 0.764140592 0.323788975 0.005199475 0.628283222
2/1/2025 0.733065683 0.94591213 0.351687739 0.668531051
3/1/2025 0.313452468 0.040938803 -0.22026284 0.063864811
4/1/2025 -0.231920988 -0.438535717 0.859590684 0.029875879
5/1/2025 -0.116832655 -0.316537603 0.59217709 0.022849856
6/1/2025 0.175727837 -0.338892301 0.309176881 0.542785658
7/1/2025 -0.04853022 -0.30578856 0.307841093 0.332817459
8/1/2025 0.231733222 -0.224038161 0.328209584 0.397012782
9/1/2025 0.094737634 0.215515157 0.476931778 0.345969807
10/1/2025 0.094497689 0.248065786 -0.134755479 0.419699334
11/1/2025 -0.171028693 0.196858585 0.667568559 0.27824976
12/1/2025 -0.041394536 0.375701823 0.379736759 0.626011464
1/1/2026 -0.083519964 0.34371576 0.00541627 0.153824393

Right
Above 3 percent
Percentage points

Date U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/1/2014 0.082641887 -0.195473321 1.334324556 -0.156199991
2/1/2014 -0.391281421 -0.439977633 0.880641372 -0.002265512
3/1/2014 -0.044396324 -0.067462756 0.780256369 -0.268008615
4/1/2014 0.270847686 0.239636327 0.91167698 -0.376967399
5/1/2014 0.311336656 0.478914631 0.998235533 -0.251562412
6/1/2014 0.258954624 0.500814763 1.052110841 -0.129207344
7/1/2014 0.200049038 0.584316384 0.638843605 -0.060184377
8/1/2014 -0.062098949 0.481746603 0.740808873 -0.108124616
9/1/2014 -0.032787774 0.318822557 0.347675362 -0.114684201
10/1/2014 -0.127753619 0.662439873 0.522502023 -0.075660961
11/1/2014 -0.46790565 0.289089677 0.204205497 -0.181081344
12/1/2014 -1.169714135 -0.153349482 -0.148802863 -0.654652311
1/1/2015 -1.942627463 -0.72841597 -0.29631721 -1.083116085
2/1/2015 -1.890823398 -0.757611056 -0.594176204 -0.731611942
3/1/2015 -1.846982713 -0.443958427 -0.582331324 -0.513539792
4/1/2015 -2.037994171 -0.749730687 -0.504651536 -0.621920779
5/1/2015 -1.789610858 -0.802571977 -0.502556685 -0.3255775
6/1/2015 -1.63349888 -0.751858306 -0.635792679 -0.362365159
7/1/2015 -1.561845431 -0.504296583 -0.426100582 -0.398558149
8/1/2015 -2.211421719 -0.412741177 -0.487715243 -0.549890367
9/1/2015 -2.476961634 -0.502283197 -0.602661604 -0.698010398
10/1/2015 -2.153945952 -0.48237447 -0.618034424 -0.652546768
11/1/2015 -1.869314459 -0.287801177 -0.844494574 -0.515516333
12/1/2015 -1.59268538 -0.150358764 -0.376465501 -0.370354362
1/1/2016 -0.969550228 0.197817903 -0.155377262 -0.274911462
2/1/2016 -1.474013965 -0.415287761 -0.117022061 -0.766030734
3/1/2016 -1.561817175 -0.522435704 -0.009741474 -0.692848163
4/1/2016 -1.28933566 -0.057173424 -0.367644214 -0.747692087
5/1/2016 -1.42233227 -0.157967867 -0.359940483 -0.704930569
6/1/2016 -1.406613997 -0.294513556 -0.506873072 -0.424822042
7/1/2016 -1.548383075 -0.553462215 -0.374703683 -0.482382814
8/1/2016 -1.319368153 -0.667384893 -0.22758767 -0.444515306
9/1/2016 -0.922650906 -0.325972096 -0.061399289 -0.154346767
10/1/2016 -0.786863256 -0.18153764 -0.216893997 -0.029427408
11/1/2016 -0.732518697 -0.532733878 0.239179458 0.083966272
12/1/2016 -0.45409087 -0.100027723 0.597532536 0.167778645
1/1/2017 -0.045870779 0.1659286 0.724313909 0.488745942
2/1/2017 0.183674866 -0.009137519 1.059516633 0.873341488
3/1/2017 -0.165088054 -0.146631946 1.190018035 0.395258729
4/1/2017 -0.274782717 -0.063566728 0.965732923 0.345344506
5/1/2017 -0.560216431 -0.240506341 0.953104519 0.389598542
6/1/2017 -0.663932088 -0.518934574 0.645134027 0.369523619
7/1/2017 -0.666700944 -0.3742798 0.642403658 0.231312883
8/1/2017 -0.419563011 -0.296237913 0.951327627 0.143212726
9/1/2017 -0.128964201 -0.024135664 0.34809666 0.114197942
10/1/2017 -0.394137794 -0.144738862 -0.05234964 -0.108234759
11/1/2017 -0.217156056 0.180598801 -0.049520372 0.058122873
12/1/2017 -0.277299445 -0.03322718 0.001832372 0.171794894
1/1/2018 -0.31015488 0.01124239 0.118951517 0.229338445
2/1/2018 -0.238966641 0.38228015 0.415434926 0.166029895
3/1/2018 -0.017217172 0.621179989 0.683550177 0.191749897
4/1/2018 0.089721866 0.499782295 0.554283804 -0.026457425
5/1/2018 0.36417601 0.54772387 0.858592588 0.609979372
6/1/2018 0.438774112 0.726396025 0.760602159 0.708751038
7/1/2018 0.520272767 1.07186291 0.487861726 0.453689845
8/1/2018 0.319830115 0.915624882 0.607085869 0.358999675
9/1/2018 -0.098994353 0.278194548 0.626947312 0.42371334
10/1/2018 0.119675884 0.452245259 0.587643767 0.738108972
11/1/2018 -0.330706695 -0.161673863 0.706194944 0.459568222
12/1/2018 -0.503881876 -0.058384244 0.335730435 0.190477167
1/1/2019 -0.777967634 -0.369199958 0.5036841 0.295273233
2/1/2019 -0.828754396 -0.09965106 0.348233495 0.384767821
3/1/2019 -0.513561327 0.268562141 0.48083621 0.005289355
4/1/2019 -0.474660481 0.243791845 0.43747002 0.029703046
5/1/2019 -0.475970033 0.282919708 0.305088958 0.00891336
6/1/2019 -0.766421392 0.138716328 0.496198089 0.089169504
7/1/2019 -0.610331438 0.215884004 0.298438647 0.307858813
8/1/2019 -0.605820007 -0.073440419 0.556787848 0.227660509
9/1/2019 -0.595474444 -0.149655524 0.459083258 0.220332551
10/1/2019 -0.67871361 -0.171178724 0.326359054 -0.09319254
11/1/2019 -0.362100065 0.24809877 0.324416534 -0.08657166
12/1/2019 -0.229373336 0.235601769 0.411555282 0.225017155
1/1/2020 0.041779702 0.596509415 0.713755044 0.038820546
2/1/2020 -0.192819383 0.365406512 0.335800662 0.239487513
3/1/2020 -0.889194621 -0.659039307 0.355827991 -0.211207204
4/1/2020 -2.178152715 -1.832099777 -0.570949385 -0.783099292
5/1/2020 -2.429553829 -2.00215559 -0.222084227 -1.00328237
6/1/2020 -1.215269655 -0.810465283 -0.204864131 -0.733801825
7/1/2020 -0.926421258 -1.469339242 -0.415922818 -0.995512428
8/1/2020 -0.450789125 -1.168584076 -0.782872084 -1.167744209
9/1/2020 -0.384288197 -0.784887135 -0.393972776 -1.092636196
10/1/2020 -0.528294616 -0.96305293 0.001098398 -1.160204584
11/1/2020 -0.541634724 -0.653579324 -0.380986971 -1.17331067
12/1/2020 -0.407879098 -0.907838588 -0.119071297 -1.059157984
1/1/2021 -0.413846285 -0.510817759 -0.166364095 -0.471880967
2/1/2021 -0.096287294 -0.639054572 -0.505764226 -0.057617037
3/1/2021 0.658868577 0.144788455 -0.352976042 -0.133642556
4/1/2021 2.114474492 1.285042276 0.358442689 0.030902771
5/1/2021 2.810031661 1.266719572 0.552648389 0.446305446
6/1/2021 3.14869365 0.709124034 0.669025999 0.404334694
7/1/2021 3.135308306 1.265256676 0.784064718 0.589149956
8/1/2021 2.969949893 1.43526532 1.339728491 0.532516653
9/1/2021 3.040565365 1.831319295 1.211341011 1.148281839
10/1/2021 3.144978834 1.922482978 1.759985036 1.762603486
11/1/2021 3.564485907 1.832684581 1.870461495 2.657206724
12/1/2021 3.817683502 1.906757652 1.867321577 1.99985173
1/1/2022 4.172975545 1.935320436 1.642146985 1.433010788
2/1/2022 4.530859868 2.475329782 2.192349274 1.798172262
3/1/2022 5.136787387 3.506531534 3.027079525 3.258402067
4/1/2022 4.884191695 3.448398212 4.802474802 2.9215195
5/1/2022 5.187011272 4.247692091 4.87451446 3.299518092
6/1/2022 5.635690809 4.619262829 4.673570676 3.964915503
7/1/2022 5.10846365 4.088747592 4.914502269 4.127955173
8/1/2022 4.854758298 3.363920346 4.954859689 4.378178826
9/1/2022 4.816489941 3.193622229 5.421906283 4.860884029
10/1/2022 4.435160108 3.082530585 5.994809987 5.532425312
11/1/2022 3.872786102 3.029758427 5.75079176 4.910972683
12/1/2022 3.264478962 2.738073062 5.713224601 3.858098695
1/1/2023 3.212293985 2.490820931 5.20690997 2.765369386
2/1/2023 2.887525235 1.823511031 5.530532971 2.508207625
3/1/2023 1.882871971 1.131560349 5.206370546 1.13159166
4/1/2023 1.843935606 1.308661539 3.801836184 1.139036295
5/1/2023 0.932987348 0.232420607 3.523747302 0.30403505
6/1/2023 -0.173682943 -0.125710781 2.780963903 -0.071798483
7/1/2023 0.102987035 0.522569507 2.05920717 -0.130940606
8/1/2023 0.880948086 1.109717195 1.947951978 -0.102441205
9/1/2023 0.771394377 0.921823481 1.984348042 -0.907988998
10/1/2023 0.448152878 0.382211486 0.185441567 -2.026585961
11/1/2023 0.273695135 0.449480159 -0.137552635 -2.163800648
12/1/2023 0.510787179 0.757039284 -0.220811184 -1.326452704
1/1/2024 0.272056368 0.323751562 -0.25146229 -1.249525477
2/1/2024 0.361957764 0.298967792 -0.723098549 -0.920260384
3/1/2024 0.681165861 0.396632177 -0.833628878 -0.680885605
4/1/2024 0.552273934 0.24072497 -1.128732313 -0.542180977
5/1/2024 0.508898346 0.327503438 -1.208525772 -0.752668674
6/1/2024 0.217767903 0.440294267 -0.841246055 -0.376053675
7/1/2024 0.150395619 0.381876621 -0.780277137 -0.682357547
8/1/2024 -0.139370067 -0.219644665 -0.660857089 -0.915591844
9/1/2024 -0.263209645 -0.575334081 -1.030574527 -1.184484152
10/1/2024 -0.168517508 -0.215556851 -0.810542386 -1.186104572
11/1/2024 -0.030930829 -0.204752924 -0.366505322 -1.045444967
12/1/2024 0.246746074 -0.260907144 -0.343948952 -0.895572105
1/1/2025 0.410344554 -0.342625172 0.082129643 -0.441900825
2/1/2025 0.140165064 0.319581791 -0.227810135 -0.537764312
3/1/2025 -0.248700789 0.006588538 -0.518627608 -0.900428405
4/1/2025 -0.403006898 -0.769028535 0.009692514 -1.012537093
5/1/2025 -0.329000271 -0.747724457 -0.139048382 -1.048481385
6/1/2025 -0.090093015 -0.658009834 -0.154296056 -1.015534239
7/1/2025 -0.214654782 -0.844949498 0.305745252 -0.952108552
8/1/2025 -0.00273714 -0.683211346 0.021083217 -0.877055946
9/1/2025 0.08469284 -0.185204845 0.195357626 -0.931663122
10/1/2025 0.036694428 -0.178602002 0.173531941 -0.98777188
11/1/2025 0.245659732 -0.289681233 0.204937102 -1.368546067
12/1/2025 0.133725663 -0.255821682 0.23877158 -1.421567399
1/1/2026 -0.221182773 -0.078289695 -0.00211087 -1.033194416

Note: The model estimates 12-month headline inflation by fitting the inflation rate onto the headline CPI DI using data from 2000 to 2019. Residuals from 2020 onwards are out-of-sample predictions. Out-of-sample predictions extend through January 2026 for all countries. Missing U.S. CPI data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text

Figure 4A: Cross-Sectional Variance of Inflation by Category

Top right
Variance by 12-month growth
Headline

Period U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/15/2014 15.57441289 10.45001726 10.82513955 9.015108885
2/15/2014 23.15773992 21.57975834 13.48358484 12.20459962
3/15/2014 17.46422934 22.61071545 15.04504796 12.18678981
4/15/2014 15.099622 26.88406539 17.16285203 9.354658095
5/15/2014 16.13900151 26.58850205 8.620623879 8.49017831
6/15/2014 14.09870951 24.48341614 8.148859457 18.55275585
7/15/2014 12.20626986 21.67009221 10.91860997 11.13719529
8/15/2014 14.92212387 20.89780074 14.22104252 19.62675054
9/15/2014 14.46037254 21.30980474 14.00224254 8.023940745
10/15/2014 14.77450898 22.55453122 13.67932192 6.131226889
11/15/2014 15.97571771 23.46910704 15.00382976 6.806141243
12/15/2014 23.42823754 28.28812082 18.73834221 17.8302297
1/15/2015 34.82279414 35.99364667 25.47245785 25.62684102
2/15/2015 35.48596453 36.1149476 24.12600839 14.59811704
3/15/2015 28.77948543 24.51608337 24.07765069 11.45642707
4/15/2015 30.78372581 21.89680049 20.71612987 11.57442741
5/15/2015 26.73137489 19.09988918 22.17083289 10.72960019
6/15/2015 27.66031553 15.92900396 21.82878364 9.379249324
7/15/2015 30.04187313 15.70549578 26.00809338 11.1394698
8/15/2015 37.1575482 15.46485168 32.21173486 12.59140608
9/15/2015 40.43420856 20.1898568 30.05894062 19.49273358
10/15/2015 34.99238617 23.85474518 25.34740206 16.65558841
11/15/2015 30.3930489 16.62425128 26.58963126 15.74154489
12/15/2015 28.46281706 18.04753837 39.85860243 8.161415515
1/15/2016 21.33916773 20.83223669 25.15299296 7.785855486
2/15/2016 27.36817439 24.47720878 29.44879964 11.07071883
3/15/2016 27.49055871 24.20704567 28.13752952 10.69991406
4/15/2016 20.06471984 17.54964993 21.98956044 15.573321
5/15/2016 19.43103606 13.49770003 22.41639039 44.29818007
6/15/2016 22.95297941 13.55205883 18.55048386 42.23336632
7/15/2016 23.79231763 16.01387843 13.72979621 52.78725299
8/15/2016 25.19183155 12.8380071 13.00904778 63.66800467
9/15/2016 22.85298313 12.93258228 13.47204563 43.34698324
10/15/2016 22.06475954 14.09523427 14.6069951 4.212537916
11/15/2016 21.73266322 14.44337688 11.86928742 5.20097306
12/15/2016 24.65679039 16.91433364 21.81773976 5.168138428
1/15/2017 26.96027011 29.37607699 46.03881851 11.60547152
2/15/2017 32.14931946 29.2716318 52.40669419 15.81606568
3/15/2017 23.51581876 21.4750312 38.26010217 9.437618497
4/15/2017 22.214712 25.47453142 25.3046171 14.15179039
5/15/2017 14.72033298 19.07388038 11.73104077 6.674417713
6/15/2017 10.53052423 14.62085506 8.518068082 5.229193439
7/15/2017 10.98528798 13.5886899 7.988247397 4.278404946
8/15/2017 11.81020285 13.75443424 10.68287632 5.617864901
9/15/2017 14.12840459 13.90233857 13.80315941 6.767362494
10/15/2017 12.80165681 10.76306487 8.460232872 6.339838517
11/15/2017 16.21893991 14.96161091 10.98838072 5.868730065
12/15/2017 15.39041798 11.95108295 10.40031346 4.713512319
1/15/2018 17.0548237 13.9962141 9.815943316 7.591057307
2/15/2018 17.45106407 13.07738219 9.904858275 9.899364513
3/15/2018 17.84108418 14.0314651 13.66955429 9.63160852
4/15/2018 21.43718546 14.33628201 16.35186792 11.31990041
5/15/2018 25.30980612 18.2784293 22.8653026 13.13266344
6/15/2018 28.6655671 19.38275454 24.57261333 14.57956684
7/15/2018 29.86994316 23.0145785 24.82008865 15.27871325
8/15/2018 26.06786232 19.01278084 22.66457627 14.25979896
9/15/2018 17.67681609 14.61332128 21.13377005 15.36985112
10/15/2018 20.29337861 16.5597881 29.32332997 18.00927593
11/15/2018 15.45092784 12.84261787 15.98702032 16.55451366
12/15/2018 15.17075454 27.10382611 9.275871694 11.45457485
1/15/2019 14.5594093 18.69028442 9.68480408 6.098863458
2/15/2019 15.05285637 16.31789561 9.829779325 7.454446639
3/15/2019 16.42329512 17.31266573 8.137279581 9.404884375
4/15/2019 17.34187014 15.90755064 24.02380913 9.513399338
5/15/2019 14.71852858 17.42691633 10.37539371 8.983383887
6/15/2019 14.4412077 20.43318888 9.691175689 9.018005398
7/15/2019 16.25488556 17.46072559 6.820755572 7.233165774
8/15/2019 17.46027323 16.5246053 7.412290294 6.420717076
9/15/2019 16.57511105 14.03401033 8.460839247 6.043763061
10/15/2019 17.38162595 14.71294209 9.600943158 8.514418183
11/15/2019 16.66286857 9.251002723 9.927429396 6.958335643
12/15/2019 15.29263018 9.37562002 11.43125403 5.432447517
1/15/2020 18.59726563 11.29133308 10.40166463 6.155584863
2/15/2020 18.26203629 11.95009378 9.821639762 6.262460086
3/15/2020 23.81162568 19.93142849 17.075432 7.418712699
4/15/2020 49.57918558 49.61227297 35.1884178 11.95572169
5/15/2020 61.39313465 40.6295053 40.11479168 14.98260514
6/15/2020 54.40140756 39.83579229 27.51068042 11.14810477
7/15/2020 40.87342769 44.82246466 26.82292297 11.15199269
8/15/2020 36.53404355 35.35290226 32.88186177 12.16126781
9/15/2020 38.09080482 37.07459222 32.30648463 14.14777951
10/15/2020 38.24506547 39.0373511 31.88506046 14.83305697
11/15/2020 33.48565729 27.75219263 32.32581859 13.62014467
12/15/2020 26.93762384 24.9428904 29.87578885 10.90242087
1/15/2021 25.79318748 24.97685616 26.82502985 7.823582608
2/15/2021 30.29323814 20.13628236 20.3096852 5.461390242
3/15/2021 38.63253037 38.30836611 20.65877058 6.744719517
4/15/2021 88.93166462 65.27552374 31.46731045 9.265036863
5/15/2021 138.065885 51.14255903 50.33086117 12.85969697
6/15/2021 110.2615654 52.47684602 30.12122563 12.31601849
7/15/2021 83.23580871 48.90815813 31.29355661 14.42717085
8/15/2021 76.34899646 56.989018 30.56463493 14.62687673
9/15/2021 75.16714743 70.70071755 41.92080422 19.97146235
10/15/2021 94.33071439 77.58536899 83.13519946 35.5196832
11/15/2021 100.7468976 81.21769343 111.9661436 44.23837371
12/15/2021 84.75086528 56.15287339 65.91659421 31.67354891
1/15/2022 75.9744189 48.83472098 57.6510598 38.94248864
2/15/2022 69.15012451 51.49661809 61.38290751 45.97172049
3/15/2022 93.78477377 76.74856859 178.0300898 106.3873018
4/15/2022 108.1889345 90.45367219 280.3262402 91.5781712
5/15/2022 151.1573743 125.9267996 304.6310197 98.8373261
6/15/2022 146.2563498 119.0180741 329.8561819 135.5393
7/15/2022 113.2917257 105.98141 300.2407722 138.7455241
8/15/2022 93.10288145 79.81121401 240.7848214 148.4475
9/15/2022 125.0809275 69.8822608 270.6947434 145.8544591
10/15/2022 136.6159531 74.29176405 307.6565503 157.1619256
11/15/2022 153.2441724 88.02593456 289.2593813 128.3089687
12/15/2022 168.1673472 63.11946046 289.2148453 91.52929812
1/15/2023 166.8626806 62.31115213 275.396133 65.09726393
2/15/2023 155.9500988 57.09554803 272.3676674 53.73906413
3/15/2023 144.659937 47.94933176 284.4030075 52.31858621
4/15/2023 138.9996486 42.95020343 78.37285956 38.20245234
5/15/2023 150.8933769 59.51601799 97.82650037 39.76697403
6/15/2023 100.0974008 53.06827816 108.3498814 41.60172534
7/15/2023 91.49559968 51.26402018 87.38187527 36.84571466
8/15/2023 60.49643314 36.39402219 55.24017479 31.37150455
9/15/2023 40.24607626 37.65131836 54.46936418 25.75137561
10/15/2023 42.37029466 36.68877874 69.84377443 31.31991549
11/15/2023 41.00669404 46.5763412 66.7278066 31.09491012
12/15/2023 38.00851178 38.96521615 63.98456271 23.45341413
1/15/2024 39.97829103 37.07044666 54.0831495 20.33059137
2/15/2024 29.59768165 31.10107895 48.45448854 18.60968948
3/15/2024 26.94697698 31.30235398 47.387681 16.75841332
4/15/2024 27.68928701 26.23310956 54.69633304 16.18777773
5/15/2024 22.82307345 25.08528657 53.76367502 14.68511732
6/15/2024 22.18857068 23.74006827 51.06143469 13.8941137
7/15/2024 23.21859508 19.35709677 35.68370942 16.45767896
8/15/2024 26.48196175 21.24159942 39.78762515 16.79423096
9/15/2024 32.68642888 21.99533771 43.40432503 18.68271424
10/15/2024 25.25259749 17.99873994 36.58364267 25.29051261
11/15/2024 26.67764812 18.0604794 32.12163085 23.76728488
12/15/2024 22.074872 19.92834394 36.44613877 22.22621651
1/15/2025 29.10287645 17.90063489 23.31909149 20.35703393
2/15/2025 33.83782432 20.7134348 24.32593636 21.18938083
3/15/2025 36.71746924 21.09870642 24.70819007 23.10794416
4/15/2025 30.97976482 27.04993508 45.65674374 26.6448257
5/15/2025 26.16074455 25.04292236 38.42265039 18.09609921
6/15/2025 19.02580066 25.03791821 35.26431942 17.12561411
7/15/2025 15.96894473 27.85533236 36.20089735 15.21705082
8/15/2025 16.58837396 25.34012707 31.83685277 15.53195408
9/15/2025 14.65340383 23.95626427 31.36323654 14.11618018
10/15/2025 15.14994247 26.54099446 27.35791486 15.81842652
11/15/2025 17.33186972 32.54841976 27.78492749 13.96734395
12/15/2025 18.36999309 34.62636322 29.14282544 13.86220981
1/15/2026 23.73299101 34.12842619 30.69776496 13.5956123

Top left
Variance by 12-month growth
Core

Period U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/15/2014 12.12447874 7.175795909 10.63396205 10.15338801
2/15/2014 11.44679121 8.524844353 10.98733821 13.92294303
3/15/2014 10.46173438 8.806357845 12.22558711 14.09394936
4/15/2014 10.64128871 17.47660664 16.99487109 10.67669837
5/15/2014 12.78599584 17.49526532 7.48309065 9.180212826
6/15/2014 13.71415184 18.00513517 7.424600134 21.31742938
7/15/2014 11.30606451 16.82405313 8.989352193 11.83793812
8/15/2014 13.87847446 18.69842649 12.99394096 22.60159163
9/15/2014 11.59116304 19.31678349 11.68598252 8.804080879
10/15/2014 11.81849989 18.91699061 10.69643794 6.34620653
11/15/2014 12.45089316 19.90292359 12.15972515 7.06288586
12/15/2014 14.2832271 18.35749229 11.63873966 17.05209667
1/15/2015 14.90339189 16.65327422 9.779193239 22.92597301
2/15/2015 12.4743958 15.51211865 11.51631885 12.195759
3/15/2015 13.73921845 14.89030543 12.63127968 9.953482484
4/15/2015 13.79487869 7.953724558 11.64760323 9.641527214
5/15/2015 13.11299964 7.387719722 15.31583781 9.35227819
6/15/2015 12.38945008 7.212610822 14.25159341 6.976783488
7/15/2015 12.00351155 7.162475016 16.78273405 8.193931717
8/15/2015 13.50979776 6.503643189 17.33725733 6.90478366
9/15/2015 13.4693752 8.365850678 15.38848211 14.03879853
10/15/2015 12.58964218 8.603111189 12.22611983 10.95837732
11/15/2015 12.38128837 8.097870055 12.34290442 11.21104476
12/15/2015 12.82421384 8.002609532 28.27102083 3.031522429
1/15/2016 11.75443796 9.156567388 14.83519373 2.774633052
2/15/2016 13.19522084 9.113333456 15.15265523 2.764058299
3/15/2016 13.3329026 7.846435036 18.02773694 3.180628091
4/15/2016 11.98860885 7.268979856 13.42644514 9.727547607
5/15/2016 14.01905113 7.396956663 16.08092934 47.0092014
6/15/2016 16.46711469 7.244387931 15.02317097 47.09956191
7/15/2016 15.52376283 8.475871361 12.69457466 60.02945099
8/15/2016 15.74298565 7.721638574 12.56516625 75.01900138
9/15/2016 18.08739979 10.53217701 13.56979548 51.48581975
10/15/2016 18.43069444 7.964608298 12.31313657 3.97624413
11/15/2016 18.55487644 7.896479295 8.542578204 5.412782572
12/15/2016 18.98827031 6.312481366 7.826436432 4.54022049
1/15/2017 15.10471192 7.446048379 6.982811419 4.595191957
2/15/2017 13.3863744 7.537829933 7.402589014 5.659599828
3/15/2017 13.17413244 8.584838008 16.50330275 5.318154387
4/15/2017 15.89754746 8.936518227 9.107778019 11.88718113
5/15/2017 13.74242736 9.912326601 6.949231751 6.535203799
6/15/2017 11.46051348 9.846042457 6.544411346 5.593214305
7/15/2017 12.83264948 9.072174269 7.395460165 3.881149432
8/15/2017 13.28857835 10.89889496 8.35972554 4.579767972
9/15/2017 11.46422576 11.83790327 8.865576621 5.504536634
10/15/2017 12.15760514 9.481337933 8.041793903 5.836644878
11/15/2017 12.80623226 10.19868033 8.352080869 4.251295162
12/15/2017 13.17138877 9.754061329 6.078162117 4.063693769
1/15/2018 13.69256928 9.810923893 8.276940943 7.439869297
2/15/2018 14.85027801 10.93467467 8.989474119 9.794782865
3/15/2018 15.30163336 10.7428758 8.582966069 10.20986341
4/15/2018 14.62931965 10.92347043 10.70334888 11.88173178
5/15/2018 15.61789745 8.830121527 9.416890629 11.11710961
6/15/2018 18.49917251 9.715192362 9.166800082 9.906671867
7/15/2018 16.52115775 14.23312523 9.533149719 10.29956441
8/15/2018 17.56008496 12.63199002 13.17007282 9.571536202
9/15/2018 15.52915955 6.557553098 9.45775335 9.535654063
10/15/2018 16.9323422 6.87310027 10.37187991 10.8997005
11/15/2018 17.02477952 7.122283967 10.27621194 10.98906427
12/15/2018 18.10787706 16.65165144 8.823293249 10.67285778
1/15/2019 16.79239616 12.37126259 10.15197307 5.939800615
2/15/2019 17.36184944 9.550880397 10.13440373 6.264734717
3/15/2019 18.78302133 12.01071617 7.934310991 8.697247035
4/15/2019 19.21614962 11.21774769 26.77432983 9.326465228
5/15/2019 17.07339266 10.22887299 8.996969478 9.309930658
6/15/2019 16.67032513 14.36867769 9.396716848 9.549638959
7/15/2019 17.76516742 9.355586694 6.442315391 7.617269806
8/15/2019 18.47239622 9.666504266 6.630031128 6.42067952
9/15/2019 19.08431703 9.254998247 8.157256337 6.373816501
10/15/2019 20.24445625 9.574542275 7.681382347 8.91204555
11/15/2019 19.84881666 8.109672357 8.760408886 6.265585965
12/15/2019 19.44489706 7.829672782 12.68994276 5.976438042
1/15/2020 23.10119797 10.19838734 9.500394454 6.426142005
2/15/2020 23.93668215 9.824529539 9.421973965 6.349694374
3/15/2020 25.38391555 9.232256673 9.933213128 5.576559542
4/15/2020 40.16454594 16.18226868 11.36123416 5.384694884
5/15/2020 49.43971845 21.71598598 9.852973399 4.781999268
6/15/2020 45.84167461 20.86139562 8.616692727 4.299373379
7/15/2020 36.68263101 28.65446988 9.940956087 5.373810016
8/15/2020 34.87289707 28.43168203 16.98057563 6.781603495
9/15/2020 37.60300232 19.22514578 12.70779872 7.192806756
10/15/2020 35.00889496 24.0071396 10.62919643 7.793529477
11/15/2020 29.10126457 22.62813164 11.39984018 6.910678759
12/15/2020 24.33012232 26.40938842 18.08120827 6.621796583
1/15/2021 26.90644769 29.48626896 17.41060609 5.263487034
2/15/2021 32.88535707 24.67982342 18.94315787 5.494963294
3/15/2021 32.47737601 28.50867616 18.35429163 7.2938115
4/15/2021 80.73323715 17.78125932 13.29112852 6.918607135
5/15/2021 137.4602164 21.51367232 11.90466611 6.468538293
6/15/2021 111.0125232 30.00945172 11.6077169 6.590678019
7/15/2021 85.43699702 27.63232829 13.65278028 6.696067139
8/15/2021 53.73570993 43.98676515 16.95381893 5.975816081
9/15/2021 40.10556332 61.415805 16.71398092 6.423855393
10/15/2021 38.28179239 53.99361571 23.40616719 5.831466163
11/15/2021 37.5377389 60.9495019 24.25961285 7.733191079
12/15/2021 39.77976217 40.81211021 31.51857021 7.575694005
1/15/2022 40.83242923 35.0833547 30.46961195 6.157440746
2/15/2022 41.7124447 32.50439984 30.99139317 6.771636677
3/15/2022 41.14119271 39.49417999 34.39202125 6.945585486
4/15/2022 40.27465061 53.10214247 29.42353115 13.52216886
5/15/2022 41.31994286 57.95167137 30.8171394 16.265885
6/15/2022 37.38606105 72.94656844 27.55551671 39.21326099
7/15/2022 36.83666148 86.05858334 37.72802573 48.38061782
8/15/2022 36.96302143 59.61475849 42.57078288 45.80945701
9/15/2022 45.56093777 43.88106026 42.19480537 19.15819298
10/15/2022 41.98139233 41.28408279 39.31963521 25.07974312
11/15/2022 38.18258734 43.66541756 40.196668 23.68476249
12/15/2022 34.16258419 33.90831439 52.81653409 24.6725004
1/15/2023 33.79792541 39.98004503 29.55254357 20.88076469
2/15/2023 32.75743337 44.57496269 34.48271704 22.16682189
3/15/2023 29.41731503 45.4395983 40.04223523 21.3648736
4/15/2023 28.92178592 36.14788338 31.46966715 18.15431872
5/15/2023 31.44077624 38.77937517 45.60809848 18.75665209
6/15/2023 35.79461841 32.98879825 46.99889154 21.37020102
7/15/2023 38.12815661 36.33030619 52.44519858 21.26069744
8/15/2023 38.74143694 36.28098365 44.69074442 23.13168035
9/15/2023 41.10236727 38.97341224 46.92893612 13.40040587
10/15/2023 37.61117537 37.88355216 44.33046503 12.94819974
11/15/2023 34.74749425 42.33572943 40.28076093 15.57309843
12/15/2023 32.43488397 34.6495253 39.48740613 12.15687806
1/15/2024 29.947639 32.14801532 34.95716556 13.6341837
2/15/2024 26.66545222 31.62335681 34.81387528 15.06439865
3/15/2024 27.4544539 34.44001728 34.92618345 14.20454248
4/15/2024 28.16958447 29.4735442 33.1360138 13.92892693
5/15/2024 26.70208281 28.39795645 32.46470385 12.4871328
6/15/2024 25.75670004 24.45196621 29.80985407 11.88287026
7/15/2024 24.60191917 21.19048354 25.74384965 15.01340059
8/15/2024 21.73500845 22.93860671 24.84659255 13.46748373
9/15/2024 18.73930409 18.92451552 22.11926886 13.16990885
10/15/2024 17.15602999 16.22893015 28.06121804 22.15749878
11/15/2024 16.04119401 19.05089378 24.04842783 22.11702863
12/15/2024 15.18372735 20.40731112 36.19568991 21.9470744
1/15/2025 16.19781926 18.13627514 19.83476191 22.00190914
2/15/2025 15.91391274 23.21070206 20.38690488 21.97259001
3/15/2025 15.61363696 22.48792316 21.11483436 22.64366358
4/15/2025 14.10448986 19.85027084 45.23829636 23.73991098
5/15/2025 15.09728757 19.51028151 35.43379224 11.68849314
6/15/2025 14.27315169 17.06473386 34.22719649 11.34448787
7/15/2025 14.10304494 18.75530135 36.09356365 10.7603472
8/15/2025 14.40282789 16.37432406 33.79383961 11.44561744
9/15/2025 13.57285031 17.47741016 33.8428768 10.7898316
10/15/2025 11.83981482 20.02715974 31.57874522 12.18157541
11/15/2025 12.87833606 21.78323933 33.38550092 10.87169782
12/15/2025 12.38150936 21.41867616 35.43527204 10.54587841
1/15/2026 12.85300536 17.9114383 36.01902479 9.773573233

Bottom left
Variance by 12-month growth
Core Goods

Period U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/15/2014 14.31565506 6.751386354 9.228684044 15.5555658
2/15/2014 12.7225926 7.135965436 10.27143282 23.26497309
3/15/2014 11.43361625 9.114727114 13.42377249 23.01908604
4/15/2014 12.28130152 9.378154949 12.19714466 13.64829875
5/15/2014 15.36904256 8.889065621 7.602317759 13.57830675
6/15/2014 17.4912279 10.61152015 8.380050854 41.16020278
7/15/2014 13.48491703 9.940836535 11.05483012 20.34616829
8/15/2014 17.77701933 11.57260489 18.6788013 45.31679203
9/15/2014 13.52370496 14.660544 16.54534192 12.66123887
10/15/2014 13.63056687 14.94005483 13.20226354 8.939062054
11/15/2014 14.36567042 17.07700021 16.03764604 10.41307179
12/15/2014 16.50646074 13.90922459 15.81621806 32.06037777
1/15/2015 17.67067892 12.39231987 11.88078924 45.808928
2/15/2015 15.03217475 9.722648584 12.59985779 22.58875644
3/15/2015 16.49772618 8.302877978 13.04294384 17.37971126
4/15/2015 15.81768966 9.689872406 13.31451291 14.63919685
5/15/2015 15.3031986 9.282071282 18.06592343 7.042445241
6/15/2015 13.04276546 8.950375237 16.19050344 6.257531238
7/15/2015 12.78781001 8.662464836 21.04034492 5.372111969
8/15/2015 15.15603784 8.273531557 19.73703841 5.314527492
9/15/2015 14.55291128 10.14350951 16.6422614 20.54462153
10/15/2015 13.2824311 11.40780378 15.26413155 14.19559014
11/15/2015 13.21202934 10.68484979 14.69320614 21.03666703
12/15/2015 13.66891725 9.538294618 16.24237577 2.806067563
1/15/2016 13.01622677 12.1691512 18.2541514 3.066997169
2/15/2016 16.26298294 11.87748912 17.79252732 2.397558421
3/15/2016 15.47368875 9.48151787 15.44613144 2.947712066
4/15/2016 13.08151682 8.52053844 16.64487532 3.327225998
5/15/2016 16.27779263 8.078099962 14.6215963 3.431636875
6/15/2016 18.07717315 8.730178326 14.13466251 4.691189733
7/15/2016 17.91411144 9.414714715 8.804921939 3.913366343
8/15/2016 18.59352504 7.669531565 9.227225689 5.237208631
9/15/2016 21.96979242 10.00381474 8.062341139 5.249754281
10/15/2016 23.46912339 8.327584999 7.14838415 6.709194798
11/15/2016 22.4611761 8.933957858 7.285433818 7.465160814
12/15/2016 22.25813806 8.026542806 7.217631451 5.748260536
1/15/2017 18.48382556 10.04560286 6.734569946 5.571747409
2/15/2017 16.03881904 9.817734379 5.426761864 6.767607568
3/15/2017 14.78900542 8.50374251 7.296095113 6.034132856
4/15/2017 18.62015877 7.661249921 6.139304304 5.065774323
5/15/2017 14.44937337 8.37566791 6.374698903 4.852517355
6/15/2017 11.25896942 8.081118739 6.506277035 4.616675827
7/15/2017 14.06433937 7.555472249 7.596770771 4.227805713
8/15/2017 14.76453288 9.555842886 8.692810231 3.89697715
9/15/2017 12.07942609 9.391483718 9.022574884 3.727910862
10/15/2017 13.06231996 9.116540848 5.529667779 3.268906936
11/15/2017 13.45401235 10.23447044 6.951814837 3.292791025
12/15/2017 13.65509166 11.35061909 6.348866395 2.832060235
1/15/2018 14.03023102 10.47895442 9.761714566 10.97561486
2/15/2018 16.25373559 11.29867696 11.51330142 14.50247387
3/15/2018 18.20146181 9.652467982 9.802013626 13.79200404
4/15/2018 18.01891841 10.44854648 9.943861338 13.04456725
5/15/2018 19.44068175 7.037253343 12.62768243 13.82928637
6/15/2018 22.54203348 6.053973534 12.93290532 14.62347787
7/15/2018 19.14644256 5.987602029 10.23314807 15.40006987
8/15/2018 21.10902434 5.621145867 12.0263434 14.57927896
9/15/2018 18.60736178 4.745013319 8.613334445 14.72071918
10/15/2018 21.61089502 5.450743489 10.88929719 18.43435104
11/15/2018 20.58057856 5.215436344 7.994555449 18.3616956
12/15/2018 24.20549939 8.925428828 6.384410174 17.7479454
1/15/2019 23.38404091 15.48837238 8.01692181 9.139399439
2/15/2019 23.84388075 8.683612871 8.309874038 9.346224254
3/15/2019 24.46004877 10.66515365 6.49353764 14.40297365
4/15/2019 22.89520773 7.348328655 8.064356252 13.04040957
5/15/2019 21.25855114 7.93186647 8.07703105 15.27924521
6/15/2019 21.3348578 14.49684548 7.351724836 16.47045932
7/15/2019 22.15401374 7.8531371 9.089019736 11.79709187
8/15/2019 22.77242673 6.506330151 7.346797932 9.95510857
9/15/2019 22.67243552 7.994448608 10.85356322 9.337006309
10/15/2019 23.33369984 8.882160806 8.119811447 9.238633583
11/15/2019 22.15080945 7.682116592 10.91180379 9.411467327
12/15/2019 20.35004878 7.233956888 16.80881828 8.976595765
1/15/2020 25.75271854 10.3252365 11.87786083 8.490001967
2/15/2020 27.24310458 9.774458277 12.76840546 9.311623483
3/15/2020 26.22542848 9.27051521 10.37101536 8.028567791
4/15/2020 34.39150813 16.06487448 16.678301 6.455954135
5/15/2020 40.02458363 20.9316559 14.04614613 6.235007367
6/15/2020 42.31261666 14.8221251 12.14567737 6.434176094
7/15/2020 35.23845733 29.35929424 9.978910604 8.087186
8/15/2020 35.04898731 26.61168087 8.332411954 6.642433384
9/15/2020 38.5959128 13.8014455 11.87094622 7.402953459
10/15/2020 37.04281026 23.54999586 8.881565969 6.845069495
11/15/2020 31.5311715 21.50009399 12.94812934 6.737150863
12/15/2020 26.03061163 22.46592149 15.60606233 7.061013202
1/15/2021 27.75468975 23.73352394 18.09208787 7.465299843
2/15/2021 31.20606449 26.14830012 18.22603248 7.455338762
3/15/2021 28.52154113 24.92525456 14.6505806 11.39102296
4/15/2021 27.97184213 12.37746294 9.597722316 8.493630887
5/15/2021 36.73272393 17.76671488 8.932041141 7.250361585
6/15/2021 55.30967575 19.20810065 9.777185119 6.936644369
7/15/2021 48.10941658 16.93758559 17.12455972 6.994583661
8/15/2021 39.56309909 16.30922829 17.91054442 6.5226374
9/15/2021 31.74069485 18.06170637 21.50351628 5.917584707
10/15/2021 30.85612576 13.84806388 28.51748964 4.722048125
11/15/2021 33.38681133 12.57996048 31.36799813 6.505620013
12/15/2021 37.3987893 18.5122619 33.14450152 5.864403118
1/15/2022 46.38125801 18.96247078 36.51250583 6.037728916
2/15/2022 45.18785923 22.4600738 38.83149378 8.181343685
3/15/2022 41.11995857 23.61094198 45.35746638 8.533569332
4/15/2022 42.04687576 32.10686028 38.23560997 10.84911467
5/15/2022 38.164012 32.7624821 34.72434527 12.57066052
6/15/2022 36.10530483 35.70494505 28.74742346 13.12423178
7/15/2022 36.78016345 28.6791714 25.38834692 15.07366235
8/15/2022 35.12908312 31.70069931 26.12842099 15.3650249
9/15/2022 35.67573712 25.86094566 29.70501732 14.82690818
10/15/2022 33.6287317 28.83848594 30.27307937 16.47425482
11/15/2022 35.83379055 26.69975401 30.31579568 18.4923688
12/15/2022 35.50510963 19.89910951 31.25724338 18.3416436
1/15/2023 34.4708308 23.75919183 31.14121882 17.64970654
2/15/2023 32.21766291 21.81177025 31.98693631 16.74321915
3/15/2023 28.67998206 26.96480266 28.96596184 15.70014464
4/15/2023 25.28395377 21.97733788 20.78257589 14.38157213
5/15/2023 21.79663781 26.01446917 28.16174302 15.15812217
6/15/2023 21.18995534 21.23438027 20.72417205 12.31367633
7/15/2023 21.43534811 24.71664087 20.06342491 10.7085126
8/15/2023 22.81069156 19.39142223 22.90055376 12.58034398
9/15/2023 22.92558103 21.51146437 22.21843678 12.71646178
10/15/2023 20.86598569 20.65653337 20.41264716 11.07554554
11/15/2023 21.30047568 20.44048407 19.55121724 12.09492698
12/15/2023 20.10120045 20.26222629 21.59372686 11.87345708
1/15/2024 19.09221439 23.25082471 18.29727842 12.29979488
2/15/2024 18.40228083 22.5534516 22.04923015 16.68229612
3/15/2024 17.48101237 18.00563504 29.91462361 13.79063515
4/15/2024 20.41675652 16.81145042 24.73078733 10.94672244
5/15/2024 20.80947638 17.80615053 25.94799386 12.47924882
6/15/2024 23.77966932 15.4340071 25.38652099 11.34866232
7/15/2024 23.92588115 14.03597792 17.90628653 13.59402085
8/15/2024 20.82449513 16.28773584 16.53379273 11.5061007
9/15/2024 16.57197864 16.75662599 19.14862767 10.7025503
10/15/2024 13.41858637 11.28774243 17.8377316 9.420854767
11/15/2024 13.15902196 14.73314598 15.11923557 8.482505105
12/15/2024 12.51246049 15.66953099 13.08374961 9.132346075
1/15/2025 15.50929885 12.62977221 11.97591465 10.58050963
2/15/2025 15.50576854 15.31884333 9.659971383 10.82541128
3/15/2025 15.24704139 13.44607025 10.03695248 10.66392488
4/15/2025 14.60050455 12.04376821 11.70061131 11.03773573
5/15/2025 16.83453876 12.80876582 9.559032451 9.129595846
6/15/2025 16.37754347 14.01087424 9.635311897 9.600028273
7/15/2025 15.84439923 15.65659939 9.229966775 10.94217185
8/15/2025 14.79496485 11.63444059 10.71513733 10.6264811
9/15/2025 13.4024707 9.638774254 9.512298054 13.84148796
10/15/2025 12.84365078 14.05548238 9.252552978 16.65682659
11/15/2025 12.76536694 14.3160972 9.726057355 11.22672195
12/15/2025 12.38047586 21.0398285 9.496679695 10.32473494
1/15/2026 14.13732507 25.21635466 13.53367411 11.09319175

Bottom right
Variance by 12-month growth
Core Services

Period U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/15/2014 12.12447874 7.175795909 10.63396205 10.15338801
2/15/2014 11.44679121 8.524844353 10.98733821 13.92294303
3/15/2014 10.46173438 8.806357845 12.22558711 14.09394936
4/15/2014 10.64128871 17.47660664 16.99487109 10.67669837
5/15/2014 12.78599584 17.49526532 7.48309065 9.180212826
6/15/2014 13.71415184 18.00513517 7.424600134 21.31742938
7/15/2014 11.30606451 16.82405313 8.989352193 11.83793812
8/15/2014 13.87847446 18.69842649 12.99394096 22.60159163
9/15/2014 11.59116304 19.31678349 11.68598252 8.804080879
10/15/2014 11.81849989 18.91699061 10.69643794 6.34620653
11/15/2014 12.45089316 19.90292359 12.15972515 7.06288586
12/15/2014 14.2832271 18.35749229 11.63873966 17.05209667
1/15/2015 14.90339189 16.65327422 9.779193239 22.92597301
2/15/2015 12.4743958 15.51211865 11.51631885 12.195759
3/15/2015 13.73921845 14.89030543 12.63127968 9.953482484
4/15/2015 13.79487869 7.953724558 11.64760323 9.641527214
5/15/2015 13.11299964 7.387719722 15.31583781 9.35227819
6/15/2015 12.38945008 7.212610822 14.25159341 6.976783488
7/15/2015 12.00351155 7.162475016 16.78273405 8.193931717
8/15/2015 13.50979776 6.503643189 17.33725733 6.90478366
9/15/2015 13.4693752 8.365850678 15.38848211 14.03879853
10/15/2015 12.58964218 8.603111189 12.22611983 10.95837732
11/15/2015 12.38128837 8.097870055 12.34290442 11.21104476
12/15/2015 12.82421384 8.002609532 28.27102083 3.031522429
1/15/2016 11.75443796 9.156567388 14.83519373 2.774633052
2/15/2016 13.19522084 9.113333456 15.15265523 2.764058299
3/15/2016 13.3329026 7.846435036 18.02773694 3.180628091
4/15/2016 11.98860885 7.268979856 13.42644514 9.727547607
5/15/2016 14.01905113 7.396956663 16.08092934 47.0092014
6/15/2016 16.46711469 7.244387931 15.02317097 47.09956191
7/15/2016 15.52376283 8.475871361 12.69457466 60.02945099
8/15/2016 15.74298565 7.721638574 12.56516625 75.01900138
9/15/2016 18.08739979 10.53217701 13.56979548 51.48581975
10/15/2016 18.43069444 7.964608298 12.31313657 3.97624413
11/15/2016 18.55487644 7.896479295 8.542578204 5.412782572
12/15/2016 18.98827031 6.312481366 7.826436432 4.54022049
1/15/2017 15.10471192 7.446048379 6.982811419 4.595191957
2/15/2017 13.3863744 7.537829933 7.402589014 5.659599828
3/15/2017 13.17413244 8.584838008 16.50330275 5.318154387
4/15/2017 15.89754746 8.936518227 9.107778019 11.88718113
5/15/2017 13.74242736 9.912326601 6.949231751 6.535203799
6/15/2017 11.46051348 9.846042457 6.544411346 5.593214305
7/15/2017 12.83264948 9.072174269 7.395460165 3.881149432
8/15/2017 13.28857835 10.89889496 8.35972554 4.579767972
9/15/2017 11.46422576 11.83790327 8.865576621 5.504536634
10/15/2017 12.15760514 9.481337933 8.041793903 5.836644878
11/15/2017 12.80623226 10.19868033 8.352080869 4.251295162
12/15/2017 13.17138877 9.754061329 6.078162117 4.063693769
1/15/2018 13.69256928 9.810923893 8.276940943 7.439869297
2/15/2018 14.85027801 10.93467467 8.989474119 9.794782865
3/15/2018 15.30163336 10.7428758 8.582966069 10.20986341
4/15/2018 14.62931965 10.92347043 10.70334888 11.88173178
5/15/2018 15.61789745 8.830121527 9.416890629 11.11710961
6/15/2018 18.49917251 9.715192362 9.166800082 9.906671867
7/15/2018 16.52115775 14.23312523 9.533149719 10.29956441
8/15/2018 17.56008496 12.63199002 13.17007282 9.571536202
9/15/2018 15.52915955 6.557553098 9.45775335 9.535654063
10/15/2018 16.9323422 6.87310027 10.37187991 10.8997005
11/15/2018 17.02477952 7.122283967 10.27621194 10.98906427
12/15/2018 18.10787706 16.65165144 8.823293249 10.67285778
1/15/2019 16.79239616 12.37126259 10.15197307 5.939800615
2/15/2019 17.36184944 9.550880397 10.13440373 6.264734717
3/15/2019 18.78302133 12.01071617 7.934310991 8.697247035
4/15/2019 19.21614962 11.21774769 26.77432983 9.326465228
5/15/2019 17.07339266 10.22887299 8.996969478 9.309930658
6/15/2019 16.67032513 14.36867769 9.396716848 9.549638959
7/15/2019 17.76516742 9.355586694 6.442315391 7.617269806
8/15/2019 18.47239622 9.666504266 6.630031128 6.42067952
9/15/2019 19.08431703 9.254998247 8.157256337 6.373816501
10/15/2019 20.24445625 9.574542275 7.681382347 8.91204555
11/15/2019 19.84881666 8.109672357 8.760408886 6.265585965
12/15/2019 19.44489706 7.829672782 12.68994276 5.976438042
1/15/2020 23.10119797 10.19838734 9.500394454 6.426142005
2/15/2020 23.93668215 9.824529539 9.421973965 6.349694374
3/15/2020 25.38391555 9.232256673 9.933213128 5.576559542
4/15/2020 40.16454594 16.18226868 11.36123416 5.384694884
5/15/2020 49.43971845 21.71598598 9.852973399 4.781999268
6/15/2020 45.84167461 20.86139562 8.616692727 4.299373379
7/15/2020 36.68263101 28.65446988 9.940956087 5.373810016
8/15/2020 34.87289707 28.43168203 16.98057563 6.781603495
9/15/2020 37.60300232 19.22514578 12.70779872 7.192806756
10/15/2020 35.00889496 24.0071396 10.62919643 7.793529477
11/15/2020 29.10126457 22.62813164 11.39984018 6.910678759
12/15/2020 24.33012232 26.40938842 18.08120827 6.621796583
1/15/2021 26.90644769 29.48626896 17.41060609 5.263487034
2/15/2021 32.88535707 24.67982342 18.94315787 5.494963294
3/15/2021 32.47737601 28.50867616 18.35429163 7.2938115
4/15/2021 80.73323715 17.78125932 13.29112852 6.918607135
5/15/2021 137.4602164 21.51367232 11.90466611 6.468538293
6/15/2021 111.0125232 30.00945172 11.6077169 6.590678019
7/15/2021 85.43699702 27.63232829 13.65278028 6.696067139
8/15/2021 53.73570993 43.98676515 16.95381893 5.975816081
9/15/2021 40.10556332 61.415805 16.71398092 6.423855393
10/15/2021 38.28179239 53.99361571 23.40616719 5.831466163
11/15/2021 37.5377389 60.9495019 24.25961285 7.733191079
12/15/2021 39.77976217 40.81211021 31.51857021 7.575694005
1/15/2022 40.83242923 35.0833547 30.46961195 6.157440746
2/15/2022 41.7124447 32.50439984 30.99139317 6.771636677
3/15/2022 41.14119271 39.49417999 34.39202125 6.945585486
4/15/2022 40.27465061 53.10214247 29.42353115 13.52216886
5/15/2022 41.31994286 57.95167137 30.8171394 16.265885
6/15/2022 37.38606105 72.94656844 27.55551671 39.21326099
7/15/2022 36.83666148 86.05858334 37.72802573 48.38061782
8/15/2022 36.96302143 59.61475849 42.57078288 45.80945701
9/15/2022 45.56093777 43.88106026 42.19480537 19.15819298
10/15/2022 41.98139233 41.28408279 39.31963521 25.07974312
11/15/2022 38.18258734 43.66541756 40.196668 23.68476249
12/15/2022 34.16258419 33.90831439 52.81653409 24.6725004
1/15/2023 33.79792541 39.98004503 29.55254357 20.88076469
2/15/2023 32.75743337 44.57496269 34.48271704 22.16682189
3/15/2023 29.41731503 45.4395983 40.04223523 21.3648736
4/15/2023 28.92178592 36.14788338 31.46966715 18.15431872
5/15/2023 31.44077624 38.77937517 45.60809848 18.75665209
6/15/2023 35.79461841 32.98879825 46.99889154 21.37020102
7/15/2023 38.12815661 36.33030619 52.44519858 21.26069744
8/15/2023 38.74143694 36.28098365 44.69074442 23.13168035
9/15/2023 41.10236727 38.97341224 46.92893612 13.40040587
10/15/2023 37.61117537 37.88355216 44.33046503 12.94819974
11/15/2023 34.74749425 42.33572943 40.28076093 15.57309843
12/15/2023 32.43488397 34.6495253 39.48740613 12.15687806
1/15/2024 29.947639 32.14801532 34.95716556 13.6341837
2/15/2024 26.66545222 31.62335681 34.81387528 15.06439865
3/15/2024 27.4544539 34.44001728 34.92618345 14.20454248
4/15/2024 28.16958447 29.4735442 33.1360138 13.92892693
5/15/2024 26.70208281 28.39795645 32.46470385 12.4871328
6/15/2024 25.75670004 24.45196621 29.80985407 11.88287026
7/15/2024 24.60191917 21.19048354 25.74384965 15.01340059
8/15/2024 21.73500845 22.93860671 24.84659255 13.46748373
9/15/2024 18.73930409 18.92451552 22.11926886 13.16990885
10/15/2024 17.15602999 16.22893015 28.06121804 22.15749878
11/15/2024 16.04119401 19.05089378 24.04842783 22.11702863
12/15/2024 15.18372735 20.40731112 36.19568991 21.9470744
1/15/2025 16.19781926 18.13627514 19.83476191 22.00190914
2/15/2025 15.91391274 23.21070206 20.38690488 21.97259001
3/15/2025 15.61363696 22.48792316 21.11483436 22.64366358
4/15/2025 14.10448986 19.85027084 45.23829636 23.73991098
5/15/2025 15.09728757 19.51028151 35.43379224 11.68849314
6/15/2025 14.27315169 17.06473386 34.22719649 11.34448787
7/15/2025 14.10304494 18.75530135 36.09356365 10.7603472
8/15/2025 14.40282789 16.37432406 33.79383961 11.44561744
9/15/2025 13.57285031 17.47741016 33.8428768 10.7898316
10/15/2025 11.83981482 20.02715974 31.57874522 12.18157541
11/15/2025 12.87833606 21.78323933 33.38550092 10.87169782
12/15/2025 12.38150936 21.41867616 35.43527204 10.54587841
1/15/2026 12.85300536 17.9114383 36.01902479 9.773573233

Bottom right
Variance by 12-month growth
Core Services

Period U.S. Canada U.K. Euro area
1/15/2014 4.278727235 6.380307309 9.834287515 3.040525242
2/15/2014 4.685048228 8.268090798 10.44312316 2.858724051
3/15/2014 4.582346963 7.117405725 9.967028941 3.331440781
4/15/2014 3.269726513 25.29938016 19.02745876 4.615179568
5/15/2014 3.186418597 26.01650508 6.51941096 3.492655858
6/15/2014 3.227917623 25.21926309 5.41045391 3.106577388
7/15/2014 3.900994425 23.53743268 5.903304243 3.109323118
8/15/2014 5.024310797 25.24269639 6.611570744 2.398276585
9/15/2014 6.587718452 23.34161221 5.208236458 3.192542902
10/15/2014 6.249668608 21.8704579 5.622416232 2.124657803
11/15/2014 5.126139536 22.86732092 4.872965421 2.297089083
12/15/2014 4.885057803 22.27247324 4.94237322 3.174602354
1/15/2015 4.458826098 21.721393 4.996016491 2.616200268
2/15/2015 4.537415309 22.19688504 5.349212961 2.377040392
3/15/2015 5.943548268 22.29968359 6.826799397 2.823203724
4/15/2015 6.702330915 5.661780424 6.994492281 4.947447626
5/15/2015 5.361390952 4.802138274 7.882912442 10.52485323
6/15/2015 5.424673834 4.915990027 6.840947998 6.759718088
7/15/2015 4.473711565 5.146368666 7.188352414 9.464913523
8/15/2015 4.857588883 4.254677964 8.836201937 7.643602385
9/15/2015 4.689517789 5.933614807 8.220782882 8.229379706
10/15/2015 4.376075573 4.870169738 4.771276312 8.142674557
11/15/2015 4.563098477 4.746244143 5.900130139 2.708259948
12/15/2015 5.521926511 6.144627493 32.6281203 3.051725671
1/15/2016 5.045634869 5.356332923 7.723077579 2.500366968
2/15/2016 3.415003746 5.658523013 7.821562629 3.132732876
3/15/2016 2.569947098 5.850630723 14.02484823 3.401027513
4/15/2016 2.731421346 5.772292776 5.417890586 15.31179584
5/15/2016 3.352757186 6.606624438 11.41901829 84.71924002
6/15/2016 5.116950083 5.423514961 10.31522061 83.41294482
7/15/2016 4.179492973 7.387462009 11.4249068 108.1273121
8/15/2016 4.280196233 7.967494159 10.26872158 134.9179548
9/15/2016 4.280545179 11.4356736 14.48570543 90.80416681
10/15/2016 4.598769672 7.501463729 13.1929748 1.384914777
11/15/2016 5.529008349 6.221532027 7.578146222 3.55763047
12/15/2016 7.023523705 4.067438553 6.100987019 3.319020454
1/15/2017 4.716456103 2.887065076 6.124664673 3.548906809
2/15/2017 3.980120649 3.61740606 9.099100727 4.438058378
3/15/2017 6.762122724 7.161505026 26.5165762 4.499647096
4/15/2017 7.720983363 7.638096012 11.22248557 16.9844023
5/15/2017 8.174767977 8.58594214 7.741737589 7.432640294
6/15/2017 8.588087998 8.687953887 6.774762583 5.839474463
7/15/2017 8.407336896 8.416968692 7.404515649 2.890535488
8/15/2017 7.514269248 9.789334997 8.281108046 4.213938315
9/15/2017 7.134474694 11.61800432 8.896912744 6.630759684
10/15/2017 6.65553689 7.931488785 10.77286767 7.398281296
11/15/2017 7.950127188 8.223173698 10.04847128 4.625943653
12/15/2017 7.733106061 5.624515005 5.935388302 4.740997752
1/15/2018 8.269561735 7.07092814 6.728357274 3.699130946
2/15/2018 8.25816293 7.900241156 6.363286068 4.342990727
3/15/2018 6.147593833 9.552406415 6.869178659 5.231749682
4/15/2018 6.39796582 10.9028123 11.81780447 9.844837033
5/15/2018 6.314649567 9.220361507 5.796577972 6.535848103
6/15/2018 7.289035535 13.65733872 5.036591615 4.365006115
7/15/2018 6.747234015 22.64447397 8.582590513 4.302824937
8/15/2018 5.481202678 19.24968062 13.62891732 4.174235978
9/15/2018 4.319813318 7.992279227 9.98848043 3.853896127
10/15/2018 4.303731888 7.245210831 9.411821589 2.637203849
11/15/2018 5.056818009 7.859376888 12.13789338 2.714288903
12/15/2018 4.326754963 22.05756078 11.51911334 2.700831623
1/15/2019 3.84090442 5.963543045 11.72105044 2.151643445
2/15/2019 4.438043614 10.29462875 11.77747521 3.17864173
3/15/2019 5.872155481 12.80531053 9.144277026 3.526400385
4/15/2019 5.94077245 15.10527014 41.97817342 4.917538725
5/15/2019 4.872385051 12.53671212 8.072962821 4.026922092
6/15/2019 6.700233846 12.28497467 9.699754775 3.030278794
7/15/2019 8.497720648 10.87747325 2.525043219 3.646653896
8/15/2019 10.1706457 13.1571224 4.49836001 2.704898188
9/15/2019 10.87159393 11.05810636 3.66035756 2.609508073
10/15/2019 11.07392658 10.40802766 4.001841667 7.936958018
11/15/2019 11.92445558 8.796020872 3.941253269 2.529936642
12/15/2019 12.65183544 8.766665989 6.951816277 2.277114298
1/15/2020 13.34804859 10.23966833 5.658816967 3.490927689
2/15/2020 14.1837183 9.456665992 3.405457422 2.619748647
3/15/2020 20.65915779 9.023889209 6.045772843 2.624468934
4/15/2020 46.32498838 15.71479112 5.568509104 3.798046342
5/15/2020 60.29297102 22.54655094 4.951778587 3.142310032
6/15/2020 47.22669865 29.2467169 5.010153998 1.971689383
7/15/2020 34.72589535 28.33791143 10.01484872 3.041120343
8/15/2020 33.22016385 31.42759901 26.2686285 6.630623425
9/15/2020 33.52106926 26.46019937 13.97241377 6.787607457
10/15/2020 28.92836135 25.01250424 12.72561408 8.479133026
11/15/2020 23.42500942 23.96970358 10.1642503 6.720149036
12/15/2020 21.04283121 32.08549628 21.19934969 5.704067693
1/15/2021 25.69123678 37.07365824 17.25761867 3.217523135
2/15/2021 34.31102881 23.09082634 20.24057746 3.532650945
3/15/2021 36.14214057 33.58257299 22.62563833 2.889994136
4/15/2021 159.3675477 25.05037326 17.52587222 5.091928921
5/15/2021 287.5902418 26.97733704 15.14131643 5.03185793
6/15/2021 196.6464998 45.00889726 13.39902903 6.050851948
7/15/2021 140.5345809 42.08614602 9.769464961 5.687548087
8/15/2021 74.70678361 81.03127997 16.11662249 5.516114706
9/15/2021 53.51310508 117.8172128 11.53298314 6.886125196
10/15/2021 50.33071562 106.053227 18.47694557 6.768378031
11/15/2021 44.65258338 126.2169701 17.01638014 8.844161899
12/15/2021 44.17251641 71.12700921 30.43569523 9.199763705
1/15/2022 32.3274071 57.14746225 24.09364356 6.205808057
2/15/2022 35.4782875 46.29706862 21.70878125 5.628093268
3/15/2022 40.96326362 60.46507589 22.10370854 5.668355257
4/15/2022 38.32944067 81.67581104 19.76760787 16.05374751
5/15/2022 47.02476022 92.33077514 27.37724497 19.83719043
6/15/2022 39.98576421 123.9918796 27.21104019 62.89896253
7/15/2022 37.27165018 162.8116309 51.44477646 78.78774596
8/15/2022 40.56651042 97.19053835 60.43350195 73.53364594
9/15/2022 61.38014341 68.77541467 55.90039828 23.34572673
10/15/2022 54.14789122 58.46513423 49.38584496 32.9296882
11/15/2022 40.58933058 67.13802682 51.22117471 28.44121052
12/15/2022 30.2517765 53.26114814 74.65619271 30.20329126
1/15/2023 28.5294538 62.35259717 28.11069409 23.52576266
2/15/2023 29.08554501 75.67949727 36.15036081 26.9593677
3/15/2023 28.81670025 70.83424178 49.82443575 26.60961286
4/15/2023 33.41562811 55.77187131 43.19910517 21.61884156
5/15/2023 45.79584407 56.92173871 63.69412442 22.27699033
6/15/2023 56.26539786 49.60590825 72.87148643 29.60265276
7/15/2023 60.93110174 52.93694369 83.31630609 30.92574617
8/15/2023 59.32877157 59.87599158 65.97616864 32.85950895
9/15/2023 65.25955744 63.51945286 70.54591933 14.23337742
10/15/2023 61.53617428 61.65860796 67.1075092 14.66887126
11/15/2023 52.47231477 72.11358496 57.77906464 18.63954064
12/15/2023 47.10025765 54.6302714 54.21594223 12.29357946
1/15/2024 40.39504812 43.94103515 46.60526858 14.12416053
2/15/2024 34.28516806 42.34894878 41.73384142 12.76752715
3/15/2024 34.30380203 55.42090373 35.45696704 13.12588219
4/15/2024 29.83029894 44.62213721 31.16621264 15.23338165
5/15/2024 24.62917151 38.91128837 27.48512614 10.07016088
6/15/2024 19.33739201 31.69569918 23.48676056 9.541960414
7/15/2024 16.98727347 27.66830167 26.73286733 13.69107768
8/15/2024 14.45615026 27.61011036 22.55486129 11.15938232
9/15/2024 15.4314929 17.75228895 17.8766269 11.70564926
10/15/2024 14.08068497 20.17961563 31.91208112 28.83873938
11/15/2024 12.60073777 21.55793426 27.69907418 29.97349309
12/15/2024 12.28627585 17.17436897 59.1037646 28.90044959
1/15/2025 9.99151937 17.11320726 26.61795935 27.97653787
2/15/2025 9.372623664 27.53579341 29.82958143 27.96677453
3/15/2025 11.08769363 32.38525625 30.49219655 30.45686995
4/15/2025 8.974853868 26.45656406 70.0803345 30.95526953
5/15/2025 8.685525763 26.08001665 59.56820106 11.63223897
6/15/2025 7.748942636 20.4726002 57.15752478 9.426276508
7/15/2025 8.864282842 22.3188537 58.84860405 7.878224166
8/15/2025 12.17732339 21.74588366 54.51725013 9.411682817
9/15/2025 12.24949691 27.62123184 53.4689653 5.896612912
10/15/2025 9.039822556 27.86857383 49.10622805 5.3101596
11/15/2025 12.19745473 32.32876615 53.02429621 6.51170138
12/15/2025 11.79058393 22.43548592 55.44357369 5.400277585
1/15/2026 10.86251301 8.128815459 50.90986201 5.073496392

Note: Cross-sectional variances are constructed using the total number of CPI items within a specific year and month as a sample. Data extend through January 2026 for all counties. Missing U.S. CPI data for October 2025 were estimated through linear interpolation.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Last Update: March 30, 2026