Accessible Version

Lessons from Brexit on the Effects of Trade Disintegration, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Effective U.K. and U.S. Tariff Rates

Effective Tariff Rate
% percent

Year U.S. U.K.
2011 1.37 2.88
2012 1.34 2.08
2013 1.34 1.73
2014 1.42 1.83
2015 1.44 2.39
2016 1.53 2.51
2017 1.55 2.08
2018 1.49 1.97
2019 1.94 1.92
2020 2.94 1.79
2021 2.85 1.64
2022 3.01 0.72
2023 3.01 1.02
2024 2.49 1.04
2025 2.42 NA
2026 14.36 NA

Note: Data for the U.S. and U.K. extends through 2026 and 2024, respectively. The effective tariff rate is the AHS-weighted average for the U.K. and the average effective tariff rate for the U.S through 2025. The annual values represent the average ETR over the preceding year. The 2026 U.S. (post-substitution) data point represents the average ETR over 2025.

Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank, WITS

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Figure 2: U.K. and U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
Index = 2008

Period U.S. U.K.
1/1/2010 136.86 148.27
2/1/2010 116.72 143.34
3/1/2010 124.69 160.09
4/1/2010 123.70 161.00
5/1/2010 147.76 243.54
6/1/2010 129.73 184.02
7/1/2010 196.95 142.86
8/1/2010 127.23 165.98
9/1/2010 186.74 127.90
10/1/2010 154.76 177.80
11/1/2010 175.04 153.25
12/1/2010 151.55 122.78
1/1/2011 111.49 123.68
2/1/2011 104.56 119.12
3/1/2011 153.84 131.42
4/1/2011 124.85 97.94
5/1/2011 84.55 94.24
6/1/2011 139.04 122.70
7/1/2011 207.16 149.03
8/1/2011 283.67 177.75
9/1/2011 214.43 153.33
10/1/2011 137.84 149.69
11/1/2011 143.71 209.90
12/1/2011 183.09 140.63
1/1/2012 154.42 137.26
2/1/2012 119.44 132.02
3/1/2012 98.75 103.73
4/1/2012 96.97 109.31
5/1/2012 135.88 151.79
6/1/2012 197.46 169.65
7/1/2012 180.80 129.98
8/1/2012 142.96 98.18
9/1/2012 182.11 124.44
10/1/2012 166.13 153.99
11/1/2012 205.86 162.10
12/1/2012 214.95 140.64
1/1/2013 199.36 187.77
2/1/2013 128.56 97.38
3/1/2013 146.12 108.96
4/1/2013 135.44 101.41
5/1/2013 109.03 72.98
6/1/2013 126.63 90.51
7/1/2013 91.44 68.19
8/1/2013 108.76 91.65
9/1/2013 179.89 94.26
10/1/2013 225.37 111.00
11/1/2013 89.92 82.07
12/1/2013 115.02 89.42
1/1/2014 107.71 104.00
2/1/2014 93.37 117.70
3/1/2014 101.02 111.05
4/1/2014 96.99 71.13
5/1/2014 102.02 90.16
6/1/2014 85.97 68.78
7/1/2014 78.51 62.34
8/1/2014 63.88 132.47
9/1/2014 86.22 176.28
10/1/2014 113.33 95.97
11/1/2014 93.19 86.57
12/1/2014 87.42 121.59
1/1/2015 120.54 135.73
2/1/2015 87.61 119.08
3/1/2015 95.98 131.50
4/1/2015 103.54 170.47
5/1/2015 102.32 140.91
6/1/2015 115.88 148.82
7/1/2015 98.73 136.10
8/1/2015 156.50 86.14
9/1/2015 171.93 135.07
10/1/2015 110.70 89.91
11/1/2015 89.58 120.86
12/1/2015 101.96 82.87
1/1/2016 154.86 135.63
2/1/2016 148.32 190.82
3/1/2016 130.49 290.93
4/1/2016 96.41 197.17
5/1/2016 96.22 246.75
6/1/2016 233.96 503.94
7/1/2016 164.46 558.22
8/1/2016 106.89 311.36
9/1/2016 86.34 209.64
10/1/2016 108.06 270.02
11/1/2016 254.10 358.83
12/1/2016 161.42 196.34
1/1/2017 195.04 257.85
2/1/2017 177.78 194.04
3/1/2017 154.61 232.46
4/1/2017 157.68 169.18
5/1/2017 129.89 159.40
6/1/2017 120.64 318.99
7/1/2017 141.14 183.66
8/1/2017 137.86 151.20
9/1/2017 116.62 140.78
10/1/2017 125.87 184.03
11/1/2017 111.28 214.97
12/1/2017 140.35 160.72
1/1/2018 160.97 123.16
2/1/2018 114.76 109.75
3/1/2018 187.10 116.61
4/1/2018 139.04 102.29
5/1/2018 162.28 121.54
6/1/2018 134.40 105.49
7/1/2018 176.21 129.62
8/1/2018 114.96 121.63
9/1/2018 120.99 157.32
10/1/2018 136.11 183.25
11/1/2018 164.94 191.97
12/1/2018 226.58 239.69
1/1/2019 284.14 309.97
2/1/2019 123.64 196.96
3/1/2019 180.63 212.78
4/1/2019 109.69 135.52
5/1/2019 160.86 158.68
6/1/2019 207.99 149.81
7/1/2019 207.75 202.04
8/1/2019 282.52 238.92
9/1/2019 186.64 187.41
10/1/2019 159.51 233.31
11/1/2019 170.48 205.60
12/1/2019 190.50 271.30
1/1/2020 164.76 198.16
2/1/2020 216.19 139.62
3/1/2020 425.78 281.21
4/1/2020 400.94 185.35
5/1/2020 503.96 230.76
6/1/2020 300.24 167.70
7/1/2020 427.92 189.96
8/1/2020 263.47 176.55
9/1/2020 252.59 184.52
10/1/2020 305.77 189.12
11/1/2020 327.61 214.46
12/1/2020 326.62 207.61
1/1/2021 261.31 112.64
2/1/2021 187.52 138.01
3/1/2021 166.79 142.41
4/1/2021 141.30 95.28
5/1/2021 172.10 98.11
6/1/2021 149.13 90.33
7/1/2021 182.17 88.28
8/1/2021 157.20 79.11
9/1/2021 171.30 78.70
10/1/2021 136.92 103.99
11/1/2021 175.87 75.32
12/1/2021 201.43 174.83
1/1/2022 155.28 88.20
2/1/2022 140.44 80.72
3/1/2022 229.24 170.05
4/1/2022 168.83 123.44
5/1/2022 190.45 105.20
6/1/2022 152.81 118.81
7/1/2022 222.79 184.27
8/1/2022 183.03 124.29
9/1/2022 201.74 230.06
10/1/2022 207.28 399.81
11/1/2022 210.37 220.11
12/1/2022 150.04 167.63
1/1/2023 161.43 140.07
2/1/2023 152.97 121.21
3/1/2023 200.49 132.89
4/1/2023 165.42 132.92
5/1/2023 205.18 118.00
6/1/2023 179.31 118.06
7/1/2023 132.71 118.85
8/1/2023 76.84 116.08
9/1/2023 117.70 130.48
10/1/2023 133.59 107.93
11/1/2023 140.68 115.96
12/1/2023 107.00 120.87
1/1/2024 131.27 100.65
2/1/2024 106.51 114.04
3/1/2024 116.71 135.56
4/1/2024 139.41 102.67
5/1/2024 123.61 144.78
6/1/2024 144.18 146.60
7/1/2024 144.94 183.28
8/1/2024 138.37 116.87
9/1/2024 127.40 184.41
10/1/2024 109.29 273.86
11/1/2024 225.05 327.23
12/1/2024 218.85 220.89
1/1/2025 236.79 238.06
2/1/2025 329.29 218.64
3/1/2025 446.30 472.25
4/1/2025 724.94 498.49
5/1/2025 563.98 355.88
6/1/2025 375.59 354.65
7/1/2025 372.06 378.78
8/1/2025 370.93 261.18
9/1/2025 321.23 263.00
10/1/2025 282.42 302.54

Note: Data extends to November 2025. Four vertical dashed lines mark key events: "Brexit Referendum" around (June 2016), "U.S. Trade Policy Shift” (January 2018), "Brexit Transition Ends" around (December 2020), and "U.S. Trade Policy Shift” (April 2025).

Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices for the U.K. and the U.S. compiled by Baker, Bloom, and Davis.

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Figure 3: Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index

Trade Policy Uncertainty Index
Index = 2008

Period TPU
1/1/2010 24.49
2/1/2010 18.85
3/1/2010 28.56
4/1/2010 25.49
5/1/2010 21.41
6/1/2010 27.38
7/1/2010 28.69
8/1/2010 29.79
9/1/2010 31.50
10/1/2010 31.01
11/1/2010 30.49
12/1/2010 32.21
1/1/2011 30.24
2/1/2011 24.95
3/1/2011 29.95
4/1/2011 31.69
5/1/2011 20.82
6/1/2011 29.77
7/1/2011 30.57
8/1/2011 30.83
9/1/2011 21.24
10/1/2011 36.77
11/1/2011 36.38
12/1/2011 30.97
1/1/2012 29.72
2/1/2012 23.26
3/1/2012 27.71
4/1/2012 21.95
5/1/2012 28.60
6/1/2012 20.72
7/1/2012 29.37
8/1/2012 20.97
9/1/2012 22.71
10/1/2012 27.78
11/1/2012 27.59
12/1/2012 25.88
1/1/2013 22.87
2/1/2013 28.60
3/1/2013 31.86
4/1/2013 11.30
5/1/2013 33.65
6/1/2013 26.86
7/1/2013 24.47
8/1/2013 20.35
9/1/2013 25.63
10/1/2013 33.37
11/1/2013 26.03
12/1/2013 21.48
1/1/2014 23.01
2/1/2014 26.80
3/1/2014 27.13
4/1/2014 24.47
5/1/2014 16.78
6/1/2014 27.61
7/1/2014 20.21
8/1/2014 22.25
9/1/2014 19.87
10/1/2014 21.02
11/1/2014 25.03
12/1/2014 28.70
1/1/2015 26.61
2/1/2015 25.19
3/1/2015 20.87
4/1/2015 21.37
5/1/2015 43.44
6/1/2015 44.50
7/1/2015 26.48
8/1/2015 35.42
9/1/2015 29.25
10/1/2015 53.25
11/1/2015 30.72
12/1/2015 31.82
1/1/2016 36.03
2/1/2016 32.21
3/1/2016 54.33
4/1/2016 46.85
5/1/2016 57.42
6/1/2016 74.69
7/1/2016 46.11
8/1/2016 43.67
9/1/2016 44.25
10/1/2016 50.46
11/1/2016 111.30
12/1/2016 105.84
1/1/2017 166.42
2/1/2017 122.70
3/1/2017 90.58
4/1/2017 97.09
5/1/2017 54.46
6/1/2017 60.12
7/1/2017 65.98
8/1/2017 54.83
9/1/2017 51.30
10/1/2017 47.74
11/1/2017 44.03
12/1/2017 46.75
1/1/2018 73.21
2/1/2018 57.03
3/1/2018 260.56
4/1/2018 174.21
5/1/2018 152.25
6/1/2018 228.62
7/1/2018 246.38
8/1/2018 225.83
9/1/2018 150.11
10/1/2018 155.21
11/1/2018 144.83
12/1/2018 164.65
1/1/2019 141.71
2/1/2019 127.47
3/1/2019 94.10
4/1/2019 91.16
5/1/2019 189.79
6/1/2019 266.00
7/1/2019 145.11
8/1/2019 254.22
9/1/2019 136.93
10/1/2019 139.27
11/1/2019 119.84
12/1/2019 146.32
1/1/2020 139.64
2/1/2020 95.74
3/1/2020 61.23
4/1/2020 55.48
5/1/2020 66.50
6/1/2020 59.90
7/1/2020 57.40
8/1/2020 67.20
9/1/2020 67.80
10/1/2020 70.25
11/1/2020 69.88
12/1/2020 98.01
1/1/2021 75.44
2/1/2021 36.86
3/1/2021 46.82
4/1/2021 47.95
5/1/2021 49.26
6/1/2021 49.35
7/1/2021 57.22
8/1/2021 39.46
9/1/2021 51.54
10/1/2021 56.06
11/1/2021 48.49
12/1/2021 37.12
1/1/2022 46.61
2/1/2022 54.30
3/1/2022 53.63
4/1/2022 41.19
5/1/2022 63.29
6/1/2022 74.51
7/1/2022 67.04
8/1/2022 65.86
9/1/2022 48.51
10/1/2022 46.55
11/1/2022 49.30
12/1/2022 48.77
1/1/2023 52.74
2/1/2023 43.68
3/1/2023 65.44
4/1/2023 33.89
5/1/2023 59.66
6/1/2023 52.33
7/1/2023 63.30
8/1/2023 59.97
9/1/2023 63.60
10/1/2023 44.46
11/1/2023 40.95
12/1/2023 65.31
1/1/2024 69.60
2/1/2024 62.58
3/1/2024 82.19
4/1/2024 90.97
5/1/2024 94.48
6/1/2024 89.06
7/1/2024 101.37
8/1/2024 98.14
9/1/2024 128.64
10/1/2024 147.93
11/1/2024 373.31
12/1/2024 247.68
1/1/2025 360.89
2/1/2025 469.77
3/1/2025 603.08
4/1/2025 1151.36
5/1/2025 723.13
6/1/2025 472.51
7/1/2025 554.85
8/1/2025 575.84
9/1/2025 465.31
10/1/2025 426.21

Note: Data extends to November 2025.

Source: Caldara et al. (2020).

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Figure 4: The aggregate, comparative effect of Brexit

Real GDP Growth
UPPER-LEFT

Period AFE U.K. U.S.
2016 H1 0.29 0.62 0.75
2016 H2 0.58 0.44 0.97

12-month Headline CPI
UPPER-MIDDLE

Period AFE U.K. U.S.
2016 H1 0.26 0.35 1.07
2016 H2 0.63 0.94 1.47

Equity Prices
UPPER-RIGHT

Period AFE U.K. U.S.
2016 H1 96.76 98.42 97.93
2016 H2 105.48 109.35 105.8

Real GDP Growth
LOWER-LEFT

Period AFE U.K. U.S.
2005-2015 0.25 0.33 0.86
2017-2025 0.4 0.41 1.41

12-month Headline CPI
LOWER-MIDDLE

Period AFE U.K. U.S.
2005-2015 1.74 2.51 1.98
2017-2025 2.86 3.64 3.36

Equity Prices
LOWER-RIGHT

Period AFE U.K. U.S.
2005-2015 121.95 127.53 118.14
2017-2025 123.57 108.14 172.55

Note: AFE consists of Canada and the euro area and uses GDP weights. Quarterly GDP data extends through Q2 2025 for the U.S., and through Q3 for the U.K., Canada, and the euro area. Headline CPI data extends through September 2025 for the U.S., and through October for Canada, the euro area, and the U.K. Equity price data extends through October 2025 for all countries.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB Staff Calculations.

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Figure 5: UK GDP Growth Forecast

Mean Real GDP Q4 Forecasts
4-quarter percent change

Target Year 2015 vintage 2016 vintage 2017 vintage 2018 vintage 2019 vintage
2015 2.53        
2016 2.39 1.91      
2017 2.3 0.9 1.56    
2018 2.19 1.43 1.42 1.29  
2019 2.18 1.63 1.61 1.45 1.25
2020 2.3 1.99 1.9 1.51 1.03
2021 2.3 2.1 1.98 1.67 1.52
2022 2.3 2.1 2.06 1.74 1.66
2023 2.3 2.1 2.06 1.8 1.69
2024 2.3 2.1 2.06 1.8 1.68
2025 2.26 2.05 2.05 1.75 1.64

Note: Yearly vintages are constructed from Q4 mean GDP growth forecasts at 0 year up to 6-10 year forecast horizons for the U.K.

Source: Haver Analytics; Consensus Economics.

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Last Update: January 16, 2026