Accessible Version

Measurement and Effects of Supply Chain Bottlenecks Using Natural Language Processing, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Supply Chain Bottleneck Words

Alternate text: Supply chain bottleneck word cloud where the most prominent words are materials, shortages, problems, labor shortages, supply chain, difficulties, disruptions, and delays.

Notes: This table reports the new word list I generate by identifying the word embeddings within the neighborhood of the vec(“supply chain”)+vec(“bottlenecks”). The size of the token corresponds to its frequency over the entire sample of the Beige Books.

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Figure 2. Beige Book Supply Chain Bottleneck Sentiment
MonthEnd SCB Sentiment
5/31/1970 0.054794521
6/30/1970 0.042035398
7/31/1970 0.042713568
8/31/1970 0.026595745
9/30/1970 0.016042781
10/31/1970 0.051490515
11/30/1970 0.03874092
12/31/1970 0.017283951
1/31/1971 0.025352113
2/28/1971 0.018867925
3/31/1971 0.015706806
4/30/1971 0.018518519
5/31/1971 0.004705882
6/30/1971 0.015873016
7/31/1971 0.043269231
8/31/1971 0.019047619
9/30/1971 0
10/31/1971 0.009925558
11/30/1971 0.012886598
12/31/1971 0.009638554
2/29/1972 0.009153318
3/31/1972 0.004962779
4/30/1972 0.002403846
5/31/1972 0.004987531
6/30/1972 0.00982801
7/31/1972 0.022167488
8/31/1972 0.00248139
9/30/1972 0.019178082
10/31/1972 0.01025641
11/30/1972 0.056097561
12/31/1972 0.0496614
1/31/1973 0.064
2/28/1973 0.027713626
3/31/1973 0.059101655
4/30/1973 0.102325581
5/31/1973 0.067599068
6/30/1973 0.061363636
7/31/1973 0.11637931
8/31/1973 0.061465721
9/30/1973 0.07918552
10/31/1973 0.09469697
11/30/1973 0.113895216
12/31/1973 0.130841121
1/31/1974 0.099489796
2/28/1974 0.108796296
3/31/1974 0.096470588
4/30/1974 0.051111111
5/31/1974 0.066801619
6/30/1974 0.117296223
7/31/1974 0.069306931
8/31/1974 0.058212058
9/30/1974 0.056603774
10/31/1974 0.04
11/30/1974 0.036398467
12/31/1974 0.048681542
1/31/1975 0.035573123
2/28/1975 0.014869888
3/31/1975 0.013592233
4/30/1975 0.012237762
5/31/1975 0.020872865
6/30/1975 0.009784736
7/31/1975 0.01934236
8/31/1975 0.021072797
9/30/1975 0.034615385
10/31/1975 0.017208413
11/30/1975 0.028462998
12/31/1975 0.007490637
1/31/1976 0.006134969
2/29/1976 0.007366483
3/31/1976 0.004
4/30/1976 -0.002008032
5/31/1976 0.02259887
6/30/1976 0.100502513
7/31/1976 0.030630631
8/31/1976 0.024344569
9/30/1976 0.019646365
10/31/1976 0.018867925
11/30/1976 0.028248588
12/31/1976 0
1/31/1977 0.00204918
2/28/1977 0.081180812
3/31/1977 0.063789869
4/30/1977 0.02189781
5/31/1977 0.017889088
6/30/1977 0.017889088
7/31/1977 0.015679443
8/31/1977 0.026548673
9/30/1977 0.046040516
10/31/1977 0.043726236
11/30/1977 0.023952096
12/31/1977 0.035019455
1/31/1978 0.013972056
2/28/1978 0.037974684
3/31/1978 0.070342205
4/30/1978 0.011695906
5/31/1978 0.040339703
6/30/1978 0.057513915
7/31/1978 0.008032129
8/31/1978 0.011152416
9/30/1978 0.023483366
10/31/1978 0.04389313
11/30/1978 0.031067961
12/31/1978 0.031496063
1/31/1979 0.027944112
3/31/1979 0.034220532
4/30/1979 0.067698259
5/31/1979 0.032692308
7/31/1979 0.068143101
8/31/1979 0.030018762
9/30/1979 0.019011407
10/31/1979 0.031657356
11/30/1979 0.04159132
1/31/1980 0.020869565
3/31/1980 0.021238938
4/30/1980 0.020408163
5/31/1980 0.012844037
7/31/1980 0.015009381
8/31/1980 0.021113244
9/30/1980 0.022146508
10/31/1980 0.016977929
11/30/1980 0.012302285
12/31/1980 0.012455516
1/31/1981 0.016483516
3/31/1981 0.005357143
5/31/1981 0.028099174
6/30/1981 0.003384095
8/31/1981 0.014705882
9/30/1981 0.02020202
11/30/1981 0.021922428
12/31/1981 0.015625
1/31/1982 0.006472492
3/31/1982 0.025297619
5/31/1982 0.016975309
6/30/1982 0.019490255
8/31/1982 0.015748031
9/30/1982 0.00755287
11/30/1982 0.009389671
12/31/1982 0.003067485
2/28/1983 0.004823151
3/31/1983 0.010606061
5/31/1983 -0.00286123
7/31/1983 0
8/31/1983 0.003012048
9/30/1983 0.008196721
11/30/1983 0.004823151
12/31/1983 0.006677796
1/31/1984 0.013311148
3/31/1984 0.008237232
5/31/1984 0.006557377
6/30/1984 0.027823241
8/31/1984 0.010544815
9/30/1984 0.023569024
10/31/1984 0.006745363
12/31/1984 0.01309329
1/31/1985 -0.001890359
3/31/1985 0.003802281
5/31/1985 0.012216405
6/30/1985 0.021558872
8/31/1985 0.014010508
9/30/1985 0.00877193
10/31/1985 0.008635579
12/31/1985 -0.005524862
1/31/1986 -0.001992032
3/31/1986 0.007407407
5/31/1986 0.022452504
6/30/1986 0.022298456
8/31/1986 0.009276438
9/30/1986 0.005093379
10/31/1986 -0.003508772
12/31/1986 -0.003527337
1/31/1987 0.006896552
3/31/1987 -0.003669725
5/31/1987 0.001748252
6/30/1987 0.017886179
8/31/1987 0.005376344
9/30/1987 0.006920415
10/31/1987 0.024604569
12/31/1987 0.025641026
1/31/1988 0.003802281
3/31/1988 -0.003558719
5/31/1988 0.015332198
6/30/1988 0.021089631
8/31/1988 0.027164686
9/30/1988 0.018644068
10/31/1988 0.006745363
11/30/1988 0.011589404
1/31/1989 0.017793594
3/31/1989 0.024561404
5/31/1989 0.017241379
6/30/1989 0.028828829
8/31/1989 0.01584507
9/30/1989 0.030520646
11/30/1989 0.015151515
12/31/1989 0.017482517
1/31/1990 0.020446097
3/31/1990 0.022375215
5/31/1990 0.019047619
6/30/1990 0.013793103
8/31/1990 0.021487603
9/30/1990 0.017211704
10/31/1990 0.019130435
12/31/1990 0.006734007
1/31/1991 0.018612521
3/31/1991 0.003436426
5/31/1991 0.003327787
6/30/1991 0.013377926
8/31/1991 0.001647446
9/30/1991 -0.003372681
10/31/1991 0.005136986
12/31/1991 0.008460237
1/31/1992 0.013071895
3/31/1992 0.008741259
5/31/1992 0.001694915
6/30/1992 0.005328597
8/31/1992 0.008012821
9/30/1992 -0.003210273
11/30/1992 0.008561644
12/31/1992 0.008417508
1/31/1993 -0.003484321
3/31/1993 0.005084746
5/31/1993 0.001557632
6/30/1993 0.013114754
8/31/1993 0.019672131
9/30/1993 0.001602564
11/30/1993 0.006546645
12/31/1993 0.006546645
1/31/1994 -0.003466205
3/31/1994 0.025236593
5/31/1994 0.024630542
6/30/1994 0.010670732
8/31/1994 0.018720749
9/30/1994 0.017080745
11/30/1994 0.028708134
12/31/1994 0.033546326
1/31/1995 0.017094017
3/31/1995 0.012638231
5/31/1995 0.030716724
6/30/1995 0.014492754
8/31/1995 0.023255814
9/30/1995 0.017985612
11/30/1995 0.024305556
12/31/1995 0.011532125
1/31/1996 0.017152659
3/31/1996 0.0192
5/31/1996 0.026397516
6/30/1996 0.01399689
8/31/1996 0.017628205
9/30/1996 0
10/31/1996 0.026706231
12/31/1996 0.015037594
1/31/1997 0.004893964
3/31/1997 0.019877676
5/31/1997 0.030612245
6/30/1997 0.020057307
8/31/1997 0.019202363
9/30/1997 0.019461078
10/31/1997 0.030567686
12/31/1997 0.047987616
1/31/1998 0.030165913
3/31/1998 0.040756914
5/31/1998 0.017910448
6/30/1998 0.04090268
8/31/1998 0.062767475
9/30/1998 0.030791789
11/30/1998 0.043723554
12/31/1998 0.018705036
1/31/1999 0.019316493
3/31/1999 0.024147727
5/31/1999 0.044222539
6/30/1999 0.041666667
8/31/1999 0.050798258
9/30/1999 0.025280899
11/30/1999 0.041055718
12/31/1999 0.005586592
1/31/2000 0.031383738
3/31/2000 0.024691358
5/31/2000 0.024113475
6/30/2000 0.014705882
8/31/2000 0.015706806
9/30/2000 0.022727273
11/30/2000 0.0202977
12/31/2000 0.031081081
1/31/2001 0.02688172
3/31/2001 0.01369863
5/31/2001 0.01532567
6/30/2001 0.01532567
8/31/2001 0.023076923
9/30/2001 0.00390117
10/31/2001 0.023809524
11/30/2001 0.018592297
1/31/2002 0.010928962
3/31/2002 0.019525802
4/30/2002 0.008219178
6/30/2002 0.009102731
7/31/2002 0.002554278
9/30/2002 0.013513514
10/31/2002 0.017356475
11/30/2002 0.01119403
1/31/2003 0.013586957
3/31/2003 0.01980198
4/30/2003 0.011299435
6/30/2003 0.016169154
7/31/2003 0.005
9/30/2003 0.00973236
10/31/2003 0.002547771
11/30/2003 0.004956629
1/31/2004 0.010695187
3/31/2004 0.00505689
4/30/2004 0.016311167
6/30/2004 0.017305315
7/31/2004 0.015978695
9/30/2004 0.008695652
10/31/2004 0.02
12/31/2004 0
1/31/2005 0.00538358
3/31/2005 0.010471204
4/30/2005 0.002638522
6/30/2005 0.00127551
7/31/2005 0
9/30/2005 0.015189873
10/31/2005 0.025423729
11/30/2005 0.01867995
1/31/2006 0.015789474
3/31/2006 0.015892421
4/30/2006 0.011278195
6/30/2006 0.017688679
7/31/2006 0.022959184
9/30/2006 0.019011407
10/31/2006 0.013941698
11/30/2006 0.018315018
1/31/2007 0.004993758
3/31/2007 0.010817308
4/30/2007 0.021118012
6/30/2007 0.003460208
7/31/2007 0.01972873
9/30/2007 0.019450801
10/31/2007 0.011166253
11/30/2007 0.023227384
1/31/2008 0.013546798
3/31/2008 0.020176545
4/30/2008 0.023199023
6/30/2008 0.011976048
7/31/2008 0.019070322
9/30/2008 0.006920415
10/31/2008 0.029868578
12/31/2008 0.017709563
1/31/2009 0.017401392
3/31/2009 0.023837902
4/30/2009 0.013667426
6/30/2009 0.010309278
7/31/2009 0.010380623
9/30/2009 0.009122007
10/31/2009 0.004540295
12/31/2009 0.009626955
1/31/2010 0.00617284
3/31/2010 0.008073818
4/30/2010 0.004656577
6/30/2010 0.003516999
7/31/2010 -0.003508772
9/30/2010 0.007963595
10/31/2010 0.006984866
12/31/2010 0.01
1/31/2011 0.003618818
3/31/2011 -0.001133787
4/30/2011 0.020134228
6/30/2011 0.026229508
7/31/2011 0.017897092
9/30/2011 0.010123735
10/31/2011 0.005561735
11/30/2011 0.016666667
1/31/2012 0.016018307
2/29/2012 0.005512679
4/30/2012 0.013274336
6/30/2012 0.009656652
7/31/2012 0.003367003
8/31/2012 0.009793254
10/31/2012 0.008908686
11/30/2012 0.025773196
1/31/2013 0.010135135
3/31/2013 0.004347826
4/30/2013 0.004237288
6/30/2013 0.009443861
7/31/2013 0.005586592
9/30/2013 0.009687836
10/31/2013 0.007352941
12/31/2013 0.011258956
1/31/2014 0.009687836
3/31/2014 0.022128556
4/30/2014 -0.002985075
6/30/2014 0.008359457
7/31/2014 0.002024291
9/30/2014 0.005122951
10/31/2014 0.015625
12/31/2014 0.007559395
1/31/2015 -0.003285871
3/31/2015 0.011506276
4/30/2015 0.008213552
6/30/2015 0.016410256
7/31/2015 0.006243496
9/30/2015 0.024033438
10/31/2015 0.013348165
12/31/2015 0.023166023
1/31/2016 0.016685206
3/31/2016 0.010471204
4/30/2016 0.005411255
6/30/2016 0.011846002
7/31/2016 0.012181617
9/30/2016 0.017259978
10/31/2016 0.021517554
11/30/2016 0.012276786
1/31/2017 0.013784461
3/31/2017 0.018726592
4/30/2017 0.012820513
5/31/2017 0.002409639
7/31/2017 0.007211538
9/30/2017 0.025029797
10/31/2017 0.017985612
11/30/2017 0.016298021
1/31/2018 0.019441069
3/31/2018 0.023002421
4/30/2018 0.027912621
5/31/2018 0.025761124
7/31/2018 0.016726404
9/30/2018 0.057647059
10/31/2018 0.044548652
12/31/2018 0.040718563
1/31/2019 0.027431421
3/31/2019 0.03276699
4/30/2019 0.016587678
6/30/2019 0.042959427
7/31/2019 0.053738318
9/30/2019 0.024971623
10/31/2019 0.022857143
11/30/2019 0.031141869
1/31/2020 0.023724792
3/31/2020 0.035087719
4/30/2020 0.042334096
5/31/2020 0.047409041
7/31/2020 0.018952062
9/30/2020 0.033185841
10/31/2020 0.020179372
12/31/2020 0.036281179
1/31/2021 0.038327526
3/31/2021 0.072727273
4/30/2021 0.047835991
6/30/2021 0.069397042
7/31/2021 0.05107832
9/30/2021 0.095709571
10/31/2021 0.106818182
12/31/2021 0.08013544
1/31/2022 0.062796209
3/31/2022 0.077283372
4/30/2022 0.084745763
6/30/2022 0.06122449
7/31/2022 0.084364454
9/30/2022 0.052396878
10/31/2022 0.049837486
11/30/2022 0.053392659

Notes: This chart shows the SCB Sentiment, defined as the total number of negative sentences minus the total number of positive sentences about supply chain bottlenecks, divided by the total number of sentences about supply chain bottlenecks.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969–November 1970, November 1973–March 1975, January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

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Figure 3. Supply Chain Bottleneck Measures

Standard Normalized Value

MonthEnd SCB Sentiment GSCPI BBSCDI
3/31/1998 0.831941458 -0.465837759 -0.237180362
5/31/1998 -0.211040718 -0.144268121 -0.563988681
6/30/1998 0.838595924 -0.511490925 -0.890796999
8/31/1998 1.83676305 -0.948180671 0.089627956
9/30/1998 0.377015612 -0.965367993 -0.618456734
11/30/1998 0.967373904 -0.801924923 0.035159903
12/31/1998 -0.17476634 -0.878924764 -0.455052575
1/31/1999 -0.146852216 -0.63244754 -0.72739284
3/31/1999 0.073702282 -0.095264482 -0.400584522
5/31/1999 0.990153461 -0.354735188 -0.128244256
6/30/1999 0.873473294 -0.385297453 -0.128244256
8/31/1999 1.290346836 -0.618717305 -0.073776203
9/30/1999 0.125433598 -0.491855692 -0.72739284
11/30/1999 0.845582413 -0.116375815 -0.182712309
12/31/1999 -0.773646834 -0.090189713 -0.455052575
1/31/2000 0.404039131 -0.034731373 -0.237180362
3/31/2000 0.098520001 -0.335669386 0.307500168
5/31/2000 0.072138612 0.083580083 -0.01930815
6/30/2000 -0.357334877 0.177823266 0.525372381
8/31/2000 -0.311640904 -0.11969003 -0.073776203
9/30/2000 0.008855983 -0.088049353 -0.01930815
11/30/2000 -0.102058389 -0.671639373 0.361968221
12/31/2000 0.390222321 -0.938451779 0.307500168
1/31/2001 0.198513974 -1.133710766 0.035159903
3/31/2001 -0.403317748 -0.972618612 -0.72739284
5/31/2001 -0.329040437 -1.20274346 -0.346116469
6/30/2001 -0.329040437 -1.297217942 0.307500168
8/31/2001 0.024818149 -0.881981636 -0.563988681
9/30/2001 -0.850589364 -0.763507094 -0.72739284
10/31/2001 0.058262687 -0.679885696 -0.128244256
11/30/2001 -0.179913055 -1.16345866 -0.618456734
1/31/2002 -0.529758079 -1.053124522 -1.163137265
3/31/2002 -0.137296901 -0.422353081 -1.054201159
4/30/2002 -0.653464564 -0.437193432 -0.563988681
6/30/2002 -0.613128797 -0.268032213 -0.618456734
7/31/2002 -0.912077397 -0.488982064 -0.836328946
9/30/2002 -0.411768654 -0.976757057 -0.836328946
10/31/2002 -0.236330554 -0.960514338 1.015584858
11/30/2002 -0.517657244 -1.140071625 -0.01930815
1/31/2003 -0.408415849 -0.585685277 -0.563988681
3/31/2003 -0.124688868 -0.401964374 -0.291648416
4/30/2003 -0.512845309 -0.273570942 -0.672924787
6/30/2003 -0.290533891 -0.249868847 -0.563988681
7/31/2003 -0.800425819 -0.23529627 -0.72739284
9/30/2003 -0.584385091 -0.176382756 -0.291648416
10/31/2003 -0.912374486 -0.080063544 -0.01930815
11/30/2003 -0.80240576 -0.313572514 0.361968221
1/31/2004 -0.540430308 -0.269686671 -0.182712309
3/31/2004 -0.797828688 -0.267872376 -0.237180362
4/30/2004 -0.284050759 0.075944471 0.198564062
6/30/2004 -0.238666104 0.49389426 1.233457071
7/31/2004 -0.299228693 0.431515125 0.579840434
9/30/2004 -0.631712667 0.195729105 0.68877654
10/31/2004 -0.115648909 -0.059803948 0.361968221
12/31/2004 -1.028684789 -0.040868149 -0.073776203
1/31/2005 -0.7829147 0.150133314 -0.128244256
3/31/2005 -0.550655532 -0.261685145 0.198564062
4/30/2005 -0.908231506 -0.344197774 0.416436275
6/30/2005 -0.97045546 -1.130283 0.525372381
7/31/2005 -1.028684789 -0.977250295 0.525372381
9/30/2005 -0.335239817 -0.762160196 1.015584858
10/31/2005 0.131954041 -0.032097028 2.159413973
11/30/2005 -0.175911551 -0.072250794 0.634308487
1/31/2006 -0.307866989 -0.70439118 0.743244593
3/31/2006 -0.303167281 -0.656730199 0.253032115
4/30/2006 -0.513814932 -0.441829317 0.961116805
6/30/2006 -0.221164848 0.089480216 0.797712646
7/31/2006 0.019443134 0.079887873 0.852180699
9/30/2006 -0.16077996 0.078454267 0.852180699
10/31/2006 -0.392221248 -0.539874534 0.470904328
11/30/2006 -0.192571346 -0.404274252 0.416436275
1/31/2007 -0.800710786 -0.440621009 0.253032115
3/31/2007 -0.534855287 -0.723052483 -0.128244256
4/30/2007 -0.064609636 -0.514320904 0.253032115
6/30/2007 -0.870720104 -0.30366006 0.525372381
7/31/2007 -0.128032873 -0.373624324 -0.291648416
9/30/2007 -0.140720833 -0.060920963 -0.455052575
10/31/2007 -0.518925303 -0.092662746 -0.128244256
11/30/2007 0.031686954 -0.671851058 0.144096009
1/31/2008 -0.410249156 -0.180867446 -0.455052575
3/31/2008 -0.107589324 0.370454458 -0.01930815
4/30/2008 0.030392239 0.133946836 0.470904328
6/30/2008 -0.481956717 -0.130056039 0.68877654
7/31/2008 -0.158090386 0.20877079 0.68877654
9/30/2008 -0.712755419 0.231059806 -0.128244256
10/31/2008 0.334869392 -0.60380159 0.416436275
12/31/2008 -0.22021146 -1.602037474 -0.509520628
1/31/2009 -0.234280021 -0.744345073 0.035159903
3/31/2009 0.059558214 -0.65384685 -0.073776203
4/30/2009 -0.404742274 -0.051023728 0.198564062
6/30/2009 -0.558047737 0.158378106 -0.455052575
7/31/2009 -0.554790734 -0.668965622 -0.128244256
9/30/2009 -0.612248812 -1.192343923 -0.346116469
10/31/2009 -0.821412171 -0.526943387 -0.400584522
12/31/2009 -0.589197001 -0.775223092 -0.672924787
1/31/2010 -0.746883591 -0.638727318 -0.563988681
3/31/2010 -0.660100524 -0.122520469 0.144096009
4/30/2010 -0.816103676 0.40343778 -0.291648416
6/30/2010 -0.868127483 0.401341218 0.470904328
7/31/2010 -1.188866522 -0.047129305 0.253032115
9/30/2010 -0.665132391 0.350500918 -0.128244256
10/31/2010 -0.70981312 0.367791219 0.144096009
12/31/2010 -0.572166849 0.415834342 0.089627956
1/31/2011 -0.863479262 0.70516344 0.089627956
3/31/2011 -1.080444192 0.392692121 -0.291648416
4/30/2011 -0.109521152 0.722381579 1.39686123
6/30/2011 0.168739316 0.945603119 0.144096009
7/31/2011 -0.211650445 0.202671665 0.743244593
9/30/2011 -0.566518146 -0.097917762 0.307500168
10/31/2011 -0.774781596 -0.586250372 0.416436275
11/30/2011 -0.267821556 -0.408642873 -0.182712309
1/31/2012 -0.297420354 -0.081562512 0.416436275
2/29/2012 -0.777021095 0.321557297 -0.128244256
4/30/2012 -0.422687524 -0.395967131 0.852180699
6/30/2012 -0.587841285 -0.729465409 0.361968221
7/31/2012 -0.874975045 -0.694999511 1.560265389
8/31/2012 -0.581605196 -0.716149154 0.470904328
10/31/2012 -0.621987292 -0.263482075 0.361968221
11/30/2012 0.14790784 -0.02631125 0.743244593
1/31/2013 -0.565997688 -0.173152754 0.525372381
3/31/2013 -0.830198728 -0.407914885 0.852180699
4/30/2013 -0.835244984 -0.553145418 1.451329283
6/30/2013 -0.59755557 -0.84901182 0.961116805
7/31/2013 -0.773646834 -0.641850525 0.089627956
9/30/2013 -0.586417678 -0.549098982 0.525372381
10/31/2013 -0.693009833 -0.289879172 0.307500168
12/31/2013 -0.51469325 -0.654857607 0.525372381
1/31/2014 -0.586417678 -0.468577765 0.307500168
3/31/2014 -0.018476492 -0.254693021 0.743244593
4/30/2014 -1.164958801 -0.578499908 1.723669549
6/30/2014 -0.647060597 -0.785637772 1.124520965
7/31/2014 -0.93627225 -0.648772533 1.233457071
9/30/2014 -0.794812893 -0.631941762 0.797712646
10/31/2014 -0.315375508 -0.805648081 1.505797336
12/31/2014 -0.683584834 -0.962359987 1.124520965
1/31/2015 -1.178690684 -0.386121298 1.287925124
3/31/2015 -0.50340264 -0.315216234 2.649626451
4/30/2015 -0.653721389 -0.402619853 2.377286186
6/30/2015 -0.279527144 -0.534418563 3.248775035
7/31/2015 -0.743657979 -0.842997388 2.322818133
9/30/2015 0.068484763 -0.669685497 1.287925124
10/31/2015 -0.419317127 -0.423510341 1.233457071
12/31/2015 0.028885728 -0.64146246 1.124520965
1/31/2016 -0.266975212 -0.595848946 0.525372381
3/31/2016 -0.550655532 -0.720047165 1.124520965
4/30/2016 -0.781651272 -0.632896516 0.906648752
6/30/2016 -0.487893547 -0.722917901 1.070052912
7/31/2016 -0.472572127 -0.286386571 0.906648752
9/30/2016 -0.24073581 0.089420682 0.307500168
10/31/2016 -0.046369856 -0.294792484 1.124520965
11/30/2016 -0.468227497 -0.047944008 0.797712646
1/31/2017 -0.399399408 -0.231959107 0.579840434
3/31/2017 -0.17378228 0.217001534 0.470904328
4/30/2017 -0.443405379 0.107631394 0.525372381
5/31/2017 -0.918680466 0.044540201 1.070052912
7/31/2017 -0.699465121 0.138338966 0.852180699
9/30/2017 0.113970364 0.439148732 1.124520965
10/31/2017 -0.207609358 0.545985428 1.887073708
11/30/2017 -0.284650894 0.803375111 1.070052912
1/31/2018 -0.1411651 0.709441915 1.451329283
3/31/2018 0.02141701 0.111808384 1.505797336
4/30/2018 0.245576451 0.469645267 1.941541761
5/31/2018 0.147356742 0.558283748 2.159413973
7/31/2018 -0.265094447 0.412065981 1.996009814
9/30/2018 1.603006864 0.531154386 2.322818133
10/31/2018 1.005041086 0.471014453 2.268350079
12/31/2018 0.830190655 0.433636299 2.10494592
1/31/2019 0.223608812 0.444315914 1.342393177
3/31/2019 0.467187101 0.115277195 1.39686123
4/30/2019 -0.271427543 0.195825911 1.015584858
6/30/2019 0.932490131 -0.660687975 1.996009814
7/31/2019 1.424565822 -0.501164774 1.015584858
9/30/2019 0.111314607 -0.335774544 0.852180699
10/31/2019 0.014784788 0.101389438 1.287925124
11/30/2019 0.392997377 0.028701252 0.68877654
1/31/2020 0.054394546 0.001366819 0.361968221
3/31/2020 0.573132544 1.106140866 1.451329283
4/30/2020 0.903942645 2.475421666 0.852180699
5/31/2020 1.135622974 3.114205323 1.996009814
7/31/2020 -0.163489139 2.310066935 1.39686123
9/30/2020 0.486308374 1.337999796 1.669201495
10/31/2020 -0.107460247 0.597950093 1.614733442
12/31/2020 0.627616126 0.694789543 1.178989018
1/31/2021 0.721035538 1.651037488 1.669201495
3/31/2021 2.291445682 1.906023137 2.050477867
4/30/2021 1.155114012 2.192633215 3.466647247
6/30/2021 2.139414679 2.990923924 4.065795831
7/31/2021 1.303132157 2.711768877 3.303243088
9/30/2021 3.340628826 3.25320795 3.248775035
10/31/2021 3.847756841 3.258466733 3.902391672
12/31/2021 2.629641817 4.246605481 4.120263884
1/31/2022 1.838074786 4.330910461 3.847923619
3/31/2022 2.499439804 2.771461692 3.630051407
4/30/2022 2.840111311 2.797439126 3.793455566
6/30/2022 1.766323006 2.63451831 3.194306982
7/31/2022 2.822703904 2.329420149 3.412179194
9/30/2022 1.363326713 1.515063991 3.738987513
10/31/2022 1.246485875 1.050257303 2.867498663
11/30/2022 1.408785857    

Notes: SCB Sentimentt is the total number of negative sentences minus the total number of positive sentences about supply chain bottlenecks, divided by the total number of supply chain bottleneck sentences reported in the Beige Book of month t. BBSCDIt and the GSCPIt are the Beige Book Supply Chain Disruption Index (Kliesen and Werner 2022) and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Benigno et al. 2022).

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Figure 4. Impulse Response of Inflation from Supply Chain Bottleneck Shocks
Horizon SCB Sentiment BBSCDI GSCPI
Median 90th Percentile 10th Percentile Median 90th Percentile 10th Percentile Median 90th Percentile 10th Percentile
V1 0.018119 0.057577 -0.02578 -0.02942 0.008387 -0.07411 0.08177 0.13242 0.031025
V2 0.043452 0.073581 0.009524 0.023651 0.047403 -0.00526 0.077093 0.11455 0.043526
V3 0.024798 0.047335 0.00235 0.002201 0.025058 -0.01908 0.044779 0.071764 0.017507
V4 0.029429 0.047072 0.011589 0.015093 0.034017 -0.00482 0.028673 0.052888 0.006629
V5 0.02012 0.036356 0.005463 0.005874 0.024772 -0.01197 0.031445 0.052538 0.011625
V6 0.019633 0.035599 0.007605 0.010775 0.027062 -0.00547 0.02397 0.044968 0.007872
V7 0.015072 0.030041 0.004558 0.007448 0.024338 -0.00931 0.02135 0.040739 0.006195
V8 0.013721 0.02771 0.005136 0.008871 0.025394 -0.00603 0.016934 0.035398 0.003492
V9 0.010986 0.024281 0.003004 0.006935 0.02286 -0.00717 0.014975 0.031697 0.002954
V10 0.009679 0.022101 0.003274 0.007602 0.02253 -0.00603 0.012318 0.02795 0.00191
V11 0.007935 0.018729 0.001896 0.006463 0.021596 -0.00623 0.010454 0.025801 0.001466
V12 0.006949 0.017261 0.002124 0.006644 0.021754 -0.00537 0.008673 0.02374 0.001031
V13 0.005778 0.014896 0.001213 0.005996 0.021123 -0.00569 0.007396 0.020955 0.000776
V14 0.005036 0.014057 0.001252 0.005852 0.020637 -0.00505 0.005978 0.018652 0.000527
V15 0.004259 0.012735 0.000753 0.00535 0.020483 -0.00488 0.005078 0.017 0.000411
V16 0.003659 0.011851 0.000734 0.005121 0.020142 -0.00465 0.004156 0.015338 0.000304
V17 0.00312 0.010771 0.000503 0.004913 0.019779 -0.00462 0.003571 0.014002 0.000236
V18 0.002664 0.009995 0.000459 0.004649 0.019531 -0.00451 0.002989 0.012728 0.000162
V19 0.002229 0.008957 0.000317 0.004476 0.019101 -0.00424 0.002487 0.011469 0.000118
V20 0.00191 0.008237 0.000275 0.004242 0.018733 -0.00389 0.002083 0.010449 0.000078
Notes: These figures show the impulse response of inflation using a time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR (Primiceri 2005). The model includes two lags of the following four variables: a supply chain bottleneck measure, the growth rate of industrial production, growth rate of oil prices, and the growth rate of CPI. Each figure corresponds to one of the supply chain bottleneck measures. SCB Sentimentt is the total number of negative sentences minus the total number of positive sentences about supply chain bottlenecks, divided by the total number of supply chain bottleneck sentences reported in the Beige Book of month t. BBSCDIt and the GSCPIt are the Beige Book Supply Chain Disruption Index (Kliesen and Werner 2022) and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Benigno et al. 2022). Shaded areas represent 10-90 percent confidence intervals.

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Last Update: February 06, 2023