Accessible Version

Measuring Shocks to Banks’ Expectations for Lending Standards Using the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Expected changes in standards and demand

Panel A: Core Loans
Net percent of banks

Date Standards Demand
2016 0.19 NA
2017 -0.19 NA
2018 -2.34 12.05
2019 10.06 -25.48
2020 8.80 5.23
2021 -43.43 51.04
2022 -14.95 19.71
2023 49.18 -38.02
2024 11.10 37.64
2025 -13.51 49.57
2026 -10.47 30.28

Panel B: Business Loans
Net percent of banks

Date Standards Demand
2016 17.71 NA
2017 0.67 NA
2018 -4.29 14.63
2019 19.14 -26.54
2020 6.93 10.84
2021 -13.86 61.42
2022 -7.77 64.29
2023 53.15 -39.31
2024 7.68 31.75
2025 -9.67 57.7
2026 -9.12 36.18

Panel C: Household Loans
Net percent of banks

Date Standards Demand
2016 -29.53 NA
2017 -1.47 NA
2018 -0.84 NA
2019 -0.47 -21.37
2020 11.22 -1.01
2021 -75.43 40.49
2022 -22.59 -25.95
2023 44.79 -37.11
2024 14.39 42.90
2025 -16.99 41.95
2026 -12.21 24.73

Source: SLOOS, authors’ calculations

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Figure 2. Macroeconomic forecasts for the year-ahead GDP growth and unemployment change

Panel A: Macroeconomic forecasts for the year-ahead GDP growth
Percent

Date SPF BlueChip
2001 3.21 3.40
2002 2.48 3.90
2003 3.21 3.70
2004 3.75 3.70
2005 3.34 3.50
2006 3.29 3.10
2007 2.81 2.90
2008 2.46 2.70
2009 0.71 1.90
2010 2.53 3.10
2011 2.77 3.20
2012 2.55 2.60
2013 2.29 2.80
2014 2.76 2.90
2015 2.87 2.90
2016 2.58 2.60
2017 2.18 2.30
2018 2.29 2.30
2019 2.38 2.00
2020 1.77 1.72
2021 3.32 3.79
2022 3.46 2.74
2023 0.83 0.77
2024 1.31 1.36
2025 1.96 1.94
2026 1.69 1.94

Panel B: Macroeconomic forecasts for the year-ahead unemployment change
Percent

Date SPF BlueChip
2001 4.25 0.10
2002 5.90 1.50
2003 5.55 -0.30
2004 5.60 0.10
2005 5.20 -0.50
2006 5.00 -0.30
2007 4.90 0.00
2008 5.00 0.20
2009 7.70 3.00
2010 9.80 1.80
2011 9.00 -0.70
2012 8.70 -0.60
2013 7.62 -1.00
2014 6.76 -0.90
2015 5.50 -1.40
2016 4.71 -0.70
2017 4.68 -0.10
2018 4.03 -0.60
2019 3.60 -0.40
2020 3.70 0.20
2021 5.80 1.96
2022 3.85 -2.02
2023 4.43 1.10
2024 4.20 -0.39
2025 4.29 -0.08
2026 4.50 4.48

Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts

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Figure 3. Banks' outlooks for changes in lending standards and E-CSI

Panel A: Core Loans
Net percent of banks

Date Outlook of Lending Standards E-CSI
2016 0.19 NA
2017 -0.19 NA
2018 -2.34 0.03
2019 10.06 3.14
2020 8.80 5.13
2021 -43.43 -22.09
2022 -14.95 -2.24
2023 49.18 8.40
2024 11.10 8.12
2025 -13.51 2.25
2026 -10.47 -0.11

Panel B: Business Loans
Net percent of banks

Date Outlook of Lending Standards E-CSI
2016 17.71 NA
2017 0.67 NA
2018 -4.29 -5.12
2019 19.14 2.71
2020 6.93 1.85
2021 -13.86 -5.67
2022 -7.77 2.51
2023 53.15 4.12
2024 7.68 2.67
2025 -9.67 -1.34
2026 -9.12 -0.49

Panel C: Household Loans
Net percent of banks

Date Outlook of Lending Standards E-CSI
2016 -29.53 NA
2017 -1.47 NA
2018 -0.84 NA
2019 -0.47 4.41
2020 11.22 7.66
2021 -75.43 -38.13
2022 -22.59 0.24
2023 44.79 16.53
2024 14.39 10.28
2025 -16.99 0.95
2026 -12.21 -1.91

Source: SLOOS, authors’ calculations

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Figure 4. Cross-sectional variation of E-CSI across banks

Panel A: Core Loans
Bank-level E-CSI

Year Mean (weighted) Median (unweighted) Lower Whisker Inter-quartile range Upper Whisker Outliers
2018 0.00 -0.01 -0.38 0.21 0.37 0.50 -0.48 0.34 -0.49 0.56 0.42 0.45
2019 0.03 -0.03 -0.31 0.17 0.32 0.39 0.47 -0.36 0.58 0.47 0.54  
2020 0.05 -0.01 -0.35 0.20 0.39 -0.63 -0.60          
2021 -0.22 -0.02 -0.50 0.28 0.48 -0.71 -0.67          
2022 -0.02 0.01 -0.40 0.24 0.38 0.86            
2023 0.08 -0.05 -0.68 0.37 0.50 -0.52            
2024 0.08 -0.03 -0.46 0.32 0.53 0.86 0.84          
2025 0.02 -0.03 -0.39 0.22 0.42 -0.75 -0.64 -0.94 -0.48 -0.95    
2026 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.20 0.33 0.50 -0.64 -0.56 -0.62      

Panel B: Business Loans
Bank-level E-CSI

Year Mean (weighted) Median (unweighted) Lower Whisker Inter-quartile range Upper Whisker Outliers
2018 -0.05 -0.01 -0.34 0.02 0.46 -0.50 0.57 -0.72 -0.46 0.59 -0.67 -0.60 0.57
2019 0.03 -0.10 -0.36 0.19 0.33 0.60 0.54 -0.45 0.39 0.39 0.69 0.39 0.63
2020 0.02 0.02 -0.35 0.20 0.39 0.53 0.45 -0.46 0.48        
2021 -0.06 -0.01 -0.53 0.34 0.57 -0.79 -0.83 -0.70 0.95        
2022 0.03 -0.02 -0.44 0.25 0.40 -0.50 -0.86            
2023 0.04 0.03 -0.98 0.01 0.64                
2024 0.03 -0.01 -0.48 0.05 0.55 -0.74              
2025 -0.01 0.04 -0.34 0.09 0.45 -0.76 0.60 -0.45 -0.72 -0.71      
2026 0.00 -0.01 -0.36 0.06 0.40 0.42              

Panel C: Household Loans

Year Mean (weighted) Median (unweighted) Lower Whisker Inter-quartile range Upper Whisker Outliers
2019 0.04 -0.01 -0.24 0.13 0.23 0.67 0.32 -0.50 0.63 0.62 -0.28 0.32 0.33 0.32
2020 0.08 -0.01 -0.25 0.16 0.31 0.38 0.56 0.57 0.42 0.41 -0.40      
2021 -0.38 0.10 -0.82 0.41 0.57                  
2022 0.00 0.08 -0.55 0.31 0.41 -0.81 -0.96              
2023 0.17 -0.12 -0.69 0.42 0.65                  
2024 0.10 -0.01 -0.49 0.30 0.51 -0.62                
2025 0.01 0.04 -0.33 0.19 0.35 -0.78 -0.46 0.53 0.09 -0.49        
2026 -0.02 -0.02 -0.35 0.19 0.26 0.51 0.71 0.38            

Source: SLOOS, authors’ calculations

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Figure 5. Banks’ outlooks and changes in lending standards reported in subsequent quarters

Panel A: Standards for C&I Loans
Net percent of banks

Date C&I Standards Outlook Reported Changes
2016 Q1 10.59 7.52
2016 Q2 10.59 8.29
2016 Q3 10.59 1.43
2016 Q4 10.59 -5.17
2017 Q1 -15.48 -0.51
2017 Q2 -15.48 -0.54
2017 Q3 -15.48 -5.89
2017 Q4 -15.48 -16.27
2018 Q1 -9.77 -19.72
2018 Q2 -9.77 -12.99
2018 Q3 -9.77 -13.41
2018 Q4 -9.77 -4.96
2019 Q1 19.41 -5.52
2019 Q2 19.41 -12.47
2019 Q3 19.41 0.99
2019 Q4 19.41 -6.62
2020 Q1 8.67 46.56
2020 Q2 8.67 67.73
2020 Q3 8.67 25.97
2020 Q4 8.67 -20.01
2021 Q1 -21.18 -37.72
2021 Q2 -21.18 -49.64
2021 Q3 -21.18 -23.57
2021 Q4 -21.18 -11.38
2022 Q1 -11.01 -4.21
2022 Q2 -11.01 15.33
2022 Q3 -11.01 38.77
2022 Q4 -11.01 28.67
2023 Q1 46.47 39.07
2023 Q2 46.47 28.68
2023 Q3 46.47 17.48
2023 Q4 46.47 3.75
2024 Q1 2.14 3.67
2024 Q2 2.14 0.92
2024 Q3 2.14 0.98
2024 Q4 2.14 2.61
2025 Q1 -4.90 6.11
2025 Q2 -4.90 3.33
2025 Q3 -4.90 0.55
2025 Q4 -4.90 0.00
2026 Q1 -1.07 NA
2026 Q2 -1.07 NA
2026 Q3 -1.07 NA
2026 Q4 -1.07 NA

Panel B: Standards for CRE Loans
Net percent of banks

Date CRE Standards Outlook Reported Changes
2016 Q1 25.90 27.16
2016 Q2 25.90 23.17
2016 Q3 25.90 17.18
2016 Q4 25.90 10.25
2017 Q1 22.17 14.07
2017 Q2 22.17 10.39
2017 Q3 22.17 2.65
2017 Q4 22.17 0.99
2018 Q1 2.50 -16.15
2018 Q2 2.50 -0.83
2018 Q3 2.50 -13.44
2018 Q4 2.50 4.90
2019 Q1 17.85 6.30
2019 Q2 17.85 3.81
2019 Q3 17.85 13.69
2019 Q4 17.85 1.76
2020 Q1 5.28 75.49
2020 Q2 5.28 64.34
2020 Q3 5.28 52.71
2020 Q4 5.28 19.31
2021 Q1 -4.08 -1.67
2021 Q2 -4.08 -14.96
2021 Q3 -4.08 -17.30
2021 Q4 -4.08 -15.35
2022 Q1 -3.82 -4.27
2022 Q2 -3.82 42.54
2022 Q3 -3.82 50.86
2022 Q4 -3.82 58.06
2023 Q1 62.02 52.41
2023 Q2 62.02 60.74
2023 Q3 62.02 46.52
2023 Q4 62.02 38.17
2024 Q1 15.07 20.29
2024 Q2 15.07 15.95
2024 Q3 15.07 2.78
2024 Q4 15.07 7.88
2025 Q1 -16.54 0.19
2025 Q2 -16.54 -7.14
2025 Q3 -16.54 -10.43
2025 Q4 -16.54 -0.19
2026 Q1 -15.39 NA
2026 Q2 -15.39 NA
2026 Q3 -15.39 NA
2026 Q4 -15.39 NA

Panel C: Standards for RRE Loans
Net percent of banks

Date RRE Standards Outlook Reported Changes
2016 Q1 -26.95 -26.31
2016 Q2 -26.95 -20.38
2016 Q3 -26.95 -9.70
2016 Q4 -26.95 -19.12
2017 Q1 -14.71 -7.02
2017 Q2 -14.71 -3.50
2017 Q3 -14.71 -5.25
2017 Q4 -14.71 -3.60
2018 Q1 -17.42 -1.37
2018 Q2 -17.42 -31.50
2018 Q3 -17.42 -22.19
2018 Q4 -17.42 -9.92
2019 Q1 -0.35 -3.71
2019 Q2 -0.35 -1.02
2019 Q3 -0.35 12.04
2019 Q4 -0.35 -0.13
2020 Q1 2.74 13.57
2020 Q2 2.74 86.93
2020 Q3 2.74 3.14
2020 Q4 2.74 -24.88
2021 Q1 -68.51 -35.17
2021 Q2 -68.51 -31.34
2021 Q3 -68.51 -21.19
2021 Q4 -68.51 -25.74
2022 Q1 -18.29 -12.02
2022 Q2 -18.29 -9.20
2022 Q3 -18.29 7.48
2022 Q4 -18.29 9.26
2023 Q1 33.78 17.50
2023 Q2 33.78 11.26
2023 Q3 33.78 24.66
2023 Q4 33.78 6.04
2024 Q1 -7.31 -6.32
2024 Q2 -7.31 -7.60
2024 Q3 -7.31 -8.41
2024 Q4 -7.31 -8.44
2025 Q1 -6.69 -14.09
2025 Q2 -6.69 -20.25
2025 Q3 -6.69 -2.12
2025 Q4 -6.69 -0.04
2026 Q1 -8.39 NA
2026 Q2 -8.39 NA
2026 Q3 -8.39 NA
2026 Q4 -8.39 NA

Panel D: Standards for Consumer Loans
Net percent of banks

Date Consumer Standards Outlook Reported Changes
2016 Q1 NA -9.20
2016 Q2 NA 25.28
2016 Q3 NA 24.36
2016 Q4 NA 19.58
2017 Q1 20.77 22.78
2017 Q2 20.77 47.94
2017 Q3 20.77 39.98
2017 Q4 20.77 27.59
2018 Q1 23.82 14.30
2018 Q2 23.82 10.58
2018 Q3 23.82 1.42
2018 Q4 23.82 8.81
2019 Q1 -3.42 5.47
2019 Q2 -3.42 11.84
2019 Q3 -3.42 13.82
2019 Q4 -3.42 24.71
2020 Q1 22.40 68.32
2020 Q2 22.40 97.91
2020 Q3 22.40 19.02
2020 Q4 22.40 -31.59
2021 Q1 -85.26 -73.79
2021 Q2 -85.26 -64.94
2021 Q3 -85.26 -48.39
2021 Q4 -85.26 -11.32
2022 Q1 -27.89 -8.46
2022 Q2 -27.89 0.64
2022 Q3 -27.89 23.17
2022 Q4 -27.89 43.96
2023 Q1 60.01 57.63
2023 Q2 60.01 53.52
2023 Q3 60.01 30.73
2023 Q4 60.01 32.49
2024 Q1 38.70 30.07
2024 Q2 38.70 36.26
2024 Q3 38.70 18.34
2024 Q4 38.70 -6.28
2025 Q1 -27.21 -7.74
2025 Q2 -27.21 10.10
2025 Q3 -27.21 -17.18
2025 Q4 -27.21 -0.08
2026 Q1 -15.81 NA
2026 Q2 -15.81 NA
2026 Q3 -15.81 NA
2026 Q4 -15.81 NA

Source: SLOOS, authors’ calculations

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Figure 6. Correlation of reported changes in standards with outlooks and E-CSI

Panel A: Corr, outlook vs reported changes

  Core Correlation Business Correlation Household Correlation
Q1-Q4 0.62 0.48 0.68
Q1 0.82 0.64 0.94
Q2 0.64 0.51 0.70
Q3 0.63 0.39 0.88
Q4 0.33 0.21 0.29

Panel B: Corr, E-CSI vs reported changes

  Core ECSI Business ECSI Household ECSI
Q1-Q4 0.60 0.67 0.67
Q1 0.76 0.66 0.89
Q2 0.66 0.70 0.68
Q3 0.67 0.78 0.93
Q4 0.34 0.57 0.38

Source: SLOOS, authors’ calculations

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Last Update: February 23, 2026