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Model Perspectives on Supply and Demand Factors behind a Soft Labor Market, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Historical Decomposition of Private Employment Gains
This chart shows employment levels from 2022 through August 2025, measured as a 3-month average in thousands on the left y-axis, and its historical decomposition of underlying forces. Dark blue bars (employment demand) represent labor demand contributions, green bars (employment supply) represent labor supply contributions, pink bars (COVID-19) represent COVID-related effects, and the overlay line (private employment) tracks total private employment.
3-month avg., thousands
| Date | Employment demand | Employment supply | COVID-19 | private employment change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/15/2022 | 96.49899514 | 210.5294896 | 165.8962283 | 474.6666667 |
| 2/15/2022 | 91.96030911 | 315.2846038 | 149.5266743 | 557.3333333 |
| 3/15/2022 | 6.036418267 | 390.7010321 | 134.7934919 | 532.3333333 |
| 4/15/2022 | -12.66397256 | 430.7584072 | 121.7812486 | 540.6666667 |
| 5/15/2022 | -100.5535085 | 307.6856217 | 110.152867 | 318.3333333 |
| 6/15/2022 | -106.3803445 | 314.5624259 | 99.81073036 | 308.3333333 |
| 7/15/2022 | -89.39163863 | 396.9020212 | 90.39994877 | 398.3333333 |
| 8/15/2022 | -112.5280931 | 439.2465474 | 81.95805169 | 409.3333333 |
| 9/15/2022 | -166.5653688 | 425.9781057 | 74.44014785 | 334.6666667 |
| 10/15/2022 | -188.4278241 | 399.0926423 | 67.69962791 | 279 |
| 11/15/2022 | -154.7208217 | 365.5569093 | 61.59600767 | 273 |
| 12/15/2022 | -125.6227982 | 312.2730111 | 56.06422297 | 243.3333333 |
| 1/15/2023 | -143.5077921 | 319.8011558 | 51.07147989 | 228 |
| 2/15/2023 | -143.2030541 | 329.9920062 | 46.55165131 | 234 |
| 3/15/2023 | -111.5124104 | 276.0406377 | 42.45386947 | 207.6666667 |
| 4/15/2023 | -78.22226712 | 193.7654614 | 38.74364478 | 155 |
| 5/15/2023 | -65.18719688 | 156.1402875 | 35.37508896 | 127 |
| 6/15/2023 | -57.32959728 | 192.0568155 | 32.30291368 | 167.6666667 |
| 7/15/2023 | -40.28136914 | 158.7665233 | 29.50475756 | 148.6666667 |
| 8/15/2023 | -57.33773483 | 159.0493333 | 26.97032924 | 129.3333333 |
| 9/15/2023 | -83.62200797 | 160.6343506 | 24.66072703 | 102.3333333 |
| 10/15/2023 | -103.2865063 | 184.7580242 | 22.55428105 | 104.6666667 |
| 11/15/2023 | -56.37602087 | 136.1471539 | 20.63055532 | 101 |
| 12/15/2023 | 5.292057891 | 117.7114248 | 18.87709762 | 142.3333333 |
| 1/15/2024 | 39.68260056 | 70.21720494 | 17.27717418 | 127.6666667 |
| 2/15/2024 | 30.33823738 | 99.04830889 | 15.82158816 | 145.6666667 |
| 3/15/2024 | 24.88778654 | 91.1348381 | 14.49085179 | 131 |
| 4/15/2024 | -20.27854718 | 156.2535587 | 13.27682178 | 149.6666667 |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.962050447 | 143.0899722 | 12.16511484 | 152.6666667 |
| 6/15/2024 | -24.60610412 | 131.3735939 | 11.15031319 | 118.3333333 |
| 7/15/2024 | -0.796601861 | 78.81518531 | 10.2220105 | 88.66666667 |
| 8/15/2024 | -16.47136511 | 52.93203612 | 9.370067364 | 46.33333333 |
| 9/15/2024 | 19.53381141 | 65.1816595 | 8.588482614 | 93.66666667 |
| 10/15/2024 | 24.78646975 | 46.99292918 | 7.870412703 | 80 |
| 11/15/2024 | 59.09028897 | 83.89638109 | 7.215392531 | 150.3333333 |
| 12/15/2024 | 50.86228686 | 119.0142572 | 6.615145259 | 176.6666667 |
| 1/15/2025 | 63.9032144 | 133.2174079 | 6.068462075 | 203.3333333 |
| 2/15/2025 | 52.38121269 | 99.4539995 | 5.568174931 | 157.6666667 |
| 3/15/2025 | 18.45991524 | 76.14764305 | 5.111003154 | 100 |
| 4/15/2025 | -7.749060788 | 120.8270275 | 4.690109297 | 118 |
| 5/15/2025 | -41.5455416 | 142.3002851 | 4.302097918 | 105.3333333 |
| 6/15/2025 | -41.94261485 | 95.98175769 | 3.946931359 | 58.33333333 |
| 7/15/2025 | -41.68731253 | 77.37841143 | 3.620978138 | 39.66666667 |
| 8/15/2025 | -28.94324167 | 54.57720037 | 3.321022604 | 29.33333333 |
Note: This figure shows three-month moving averages of the contribution of labor supply and demand shocks to private payroll gains. Trend employment gains are treated as a supply force. Data and decomposition run through August 2025.
Figure 2. Decomposition of Quarterly Changes in the EPOP Ratio
This chart shows quarterly changes in the employment-to-population ratio from 2022:Q2 through 2025:Q3, measured in percentage points, and its historical decomposition of underlying forces. Dark blue bars (demand) represent aggregate demand contributions, green bars (supply) represent aggregate supply contributions, pink bars (pre-2022 factors) represent structural factors before 2022, and the overlay line (change in EPOP) tracks the actual quarterly change in the employment-to-population ratio.
Percentage points
| Year | Quarter | Supply | Demand | Pre-2022 factors | Change in EPOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Q2 | 0.010 | -0.220 | 0.310 | 0.091 |
| 2022 | Q3 | -0.004 | -0.171 | 0.175 | 0.003 |
| 2022 | Q4 | 0.083 | -0.217 | 0.134 | 0.014 |
| 2023 | Q1 | 0.073 | 0.028 | 0.199 | 0.259 |
| 2023 | Q2 | -0.096 | -0.050 | 0.146 | 0.031 |
| 2023 | Q3 | -0.207 | 0.085 | 0.222 | 0.070 |
| 2023 | Q4 | -0.356 | -0.003 | 0.160 | -0.161 |
| 2024 | Q1 | -0.267 | 0.052 | 0.216 | -0.020 |
| 2024 | Q2 | -0.311 | 0.033 | 0.178 | -0.097 |
| 2024 | Q3 | -0.232 | -0.036 | 0.167 | -0.108 |
| 2024 | Q4 | -0.137 | -0.056 | 0.093 | -0.062 |
| 2025 | Q1 | -0.042 | -0.021 | 0.163 | 0.039 |
| 2025 | Q2 | -0.184 | -0.051 | 0.035 | -0.165 |
| 2025 | Q3 | -0.131 | -0.106 | 0.037 | -0.195 |
Note: This figure shows the contribution of aggregate supply and demand factors to the quarterly change in the EPOP ratio. For the third quarter of 2025, we used the latest GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed, as the GDP data was not available for that quarter at the time of this estimation.
Figure A1. Historical Decomposition of Real Wage Growth
This chart shows wage dynamics from 2022 through August 2025, measured as a 3-month average in percent annual rate on the left y-axis, and its historical decomposition of underlying forces. Yellow bars (historical average) represent the historical wage growth, dark blue bars (employment demand) represent labor demand contributions, green bars (employment supply) represent labor supply contributions, pink bars (COVID-19) represent COVID-related effects, and the overlay line (real wages) tracks real wage growth.
3-month avg., percent annual rate
| Date | Historical average | Employment demand | Employment supply | COVID-19 | real wage gains |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.400830638 | 0.030599554 | 0.174698005 | 0.80137613 |
| 2/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | 0.480110351 | -1.513484979 | 0.176229994 | 0.140457381 |
| 3/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.447128204 | -1.768880871 | 0.175132967 | -1.039020196 |
| 4/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.393430695 | -1.831232064 | 0.172171805 | -1.050398617 |
| 5/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -1.064550421 | -0.517589083 | 0.167177207 | -0.413872239 |
| 6/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.630152405 | -1.223163643 | 0.161061937 | -0.691181975 |
| 7/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.35349947 | -1.980068441 | 0.154217158 | -1.177215895 |
| 8/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.886657396 | -1.984678915 | 0.146755664 | -1.720354081 |
| 9/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -1.216577072 | -1.761576543 | 0.139014864 | -1.834464162 |
| 10/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.966184372 | -1.641081387 | 0.13118109 | -1.47239734 |
| 11/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.480562547 | -1.367927602 | 0.123348994 | -0.723612803 |
| 12/15/2022 | 0.994133054 | -0.516388587 | -0.983929553 | 0.11564907 | -0.38428085 |
| 1/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.888534534 | -1.322640986 | 0.108161371 | -1.100816478 |
| 2/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.614348284 | -1.346281454 | 0.100931709 | -0.858029478 |
| 3/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.215604728 | -0.709811058 | 0.094005386 | 0.167692617 |
| 4/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.170645215 | -0.156970951 | 0.087408542 | 0.75688864 |
| 5/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.257518731 | -0.125381029 | 0.081153382 | 0.695284875 |
| 6/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.159919184 | -0.575028054 | 0.075247749 | 0.338441742 |
| 7/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | 0.01981688 | -0.00808669 | 0.069691728 | 1.077772807 |
| 8/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.307915391 | -0.196019095 | 0.064479687 | 0.558292763 |
| 9/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.487100339 | -0.216135623 | 0.059603289 | 0.354725014 |
| 10/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | -0.467445834 | -0.398711354 | 0.055051227 | 0.188180773 |
| 11/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | 0.1100224 | 0.196410418 | 0.050810124 | 1.353214059 |
| 12/15/2023 | 0.994133054 | 0.384283336 | 0.134401818 | 0.046865602 | 1.560436468 |
| 1/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.296360107 | 0.585967685 | 0.043202477 | 1.919347602 |
| 2/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.088933197 | 0.12083745 | 0.039805172 | 1.245320403 |
| 3/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.190768804 | 0.357599986 | 0.036658127 | 1.579984449 |
| 4/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | -0.24594712 | -0.339111442 | 0.033745952 | 0.446928942 |
| 5/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.144080976 | 0.086158658 | 0.031053608 | 1.257328534 |
| 6/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | -0.181966114 | 0.120610888 | 0.028566557 | 0.964485185 |
| 7/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.107499212 | 0.570729231 | 0.026270835 | 1.699318636 |
| 8/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | -0.138469678 | 0.617957803 | 0.024153109 | 1.499230128 |
| 9/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.280334661 | 0.414203882 | 0.022200725 | 1.711396392 |
| 10/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.166811765 | 0.684993933 | 0.020401718 | 1.866589613 |
| 11/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.418734819 | 0.23352513 | 0.018744816 | 1.665591546 |
| 12/15/2024 | 0.994133054 | 0.196471062 | 0.029845547 | 0.017219437 | 1.239355976 |
| 1/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | 0.359929172 | 0.072350546 | 0.015815671 | 1.443500398 |
| 2/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | 0.216105006 | 0.422602041 | 0.014524259 | 1.648242439 |
| 3/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | -0.121340762 | 0.477900698 | 0.013336573 | 1.365635716 |
| 4/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | -0.144929671 | -0.053220378 | 0.012244578 | 0.811350553 |
| 5/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | -0.339904897 | -0.043654113 | 0.011240814 | 0.625879655 |
| 6/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | -0.191426932 | 0.498357402 | 0.010318354 | 1.313625189 |
| 7/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | -0.208611046 | 0.403871424 | 0.009470784 | 1.201179707 |
| 8/15/2025 | 0.994133054 | -0.113719055 | 0.590489722 | 0.008692163 | 1.481022899 |
Note: This figure shows three-month moving averages of the contribution of labor supply and demand shocks to real wage growth.