Accessible Version
Non-Financial Corporate Credit and Recessions, Accessible Data
Figure 1: Non-Financial Corporate Credit/GDP, Advanced Economies
| Year | NFC Credit/GDP (%) |
|---|---|
| 1999 | 80.6 |
| 2000 | 78.9 |
| 2001 | 78.4 |
| 2002 | 84.1 |
| 2003 | 83.5 |
| 2004 | 81.8 |
| 2005 | 76 |
| 2006 | 82.1 |
| 2007 | 88.4 |
| 2008 | 86.5 |
| 2009 | 92.5 |
| 2010 | 89.1 |
| 2011 | 85.2 |
| 2012 | 88.1 |
| 2013 | 87.4 |
| 2014 | 82.5 |
| 2015 | 87.1 |
| 2016 | 86.8 |
| 2017 | 92.5 |
| 2018 | 89.2 |
| 2019 | 91.3 |
| 2020:Q1 | 94.4 |
| 2020:Q2 | 99.6 |
Source: Bank for International Settlements, BIS Data Bank, https://dbsonline.bis.org/.
Figure 2: Change in the NFC Gap and Recession Severity
Panel A: Recession Length
| 3-Year Change in NFC Gap (ppts) | Length (Q) | GFC or Non-GFC |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | -0.25 | Non-GFC |
| 4 | -0.30 | Non-GFC |
| 4 | -0.24 | Non-GFC |
| 4 | 1.11 | Non-GFC |
| 6 | -0.58 | Non-GFC |
| 3 | 0.59 | Non-GFC |
| 6 | 0.58 | Non-GFC |
| 3 | -4.35 | Non-GFC |
| 3 | 3.57 | Non-GFC |
| 6 | 7.02 | GFC |
| 8 | 3.00 | Non-GFC |
| 7 | 2.59 | GFC |
| 15 | -7.09 | Non-GFC |
| 8 | -6.81 | Non-GFC |
| 8 | -14.21 | Non-GFC |
| 6 | -12.97 | Non-GFC |
| 5 | 10.17 | GFC |
| 4 | 9.88 | Non-GFC |
| 4 | 2.16 | Non-GFC |
| 6 | 5.41 | GFC |
| 9 | 1.14 | Non-GFC |
| 5 | 5.30 | GFC |
| 7 | 8.33 | Non-GFC |
| 9 | 7.01 | Non-GFC |
| 7 | 6.04 | GFC |
| 9 | 0.68 | Non-GFC |
| 8 | 8.60 | Non-GFC |
| 8 | 1.48 | GFC |
| 9 | -0.55 | Non-GFC |
| 12 | -0.27 | Non-GFC |
| 11 | 4.18 | Non-GFC |
| 4 | -1.38 | GFC |
| 14 | 7.15 | Non-GFC |
| 4 | 24.09 | GFC |
| 23 | 5.18 | GFC |
| 4 | -0.54 | Non-GFC |
| 11 | 0.82 | Non-GFC |
| 7 | 2.79 | Non-GFC |
| 4 | 4.96 | Non-GFC |
| 5 | 2.02 | GFC |
| 7 | 0.88 | Non-GFC |
| 5 | 0.93 | Non-GFC |
| 7 | -7.62 | Non-GFC |
Linear (All): : y = -0.03x + 7.11 R2 = 0.0029
Linear (Non-GFC): y = -0.02x + 6.98 R2 = 0.0012
Linear (Non-GFC): y = -0.02x + 6.98 R2 = 0.0012
Panel B: Recession Depth
| 3-Year Change in NFC Gap (ppts) | Depth (pct) | GFC or Non-GFC |
|---|---|---|
| -0.25 | -2.54 | Non-GFC |
| -0.30 | -2.66 | Non-GFC |
| -0.24 | -1.34 | Non-GFC |
| 1.11 | -0.17 | Non-GFC |
| -0.58 | -2.22 | Non-GFC |
| 0.59 | -1.87 | Non-GFC |
| 0.58 | -1.46 | Non-GFC |
| -4.35 | -1.31 | Non-GFC |
| 3.57 | 0.17 | Non-GFC |
| 7.02 | -3.98 | GFC |
| 3.00 | -1.23 | Non-GFC |
| 2.59 | -6.33 | GFC |
| -7.09 | -5.23 | Non-GFC |
| -6.81 | -1.11 | Non-GFC |
| -14.21 | -2.56 | Non-GFC |
| -12.97 | -0.48 | Non-GFC |
| 10.17 | -8.52 | GFC |
| 9.88 | -0.95 | Non-GFC |
| 2.16 | -0.61 | Non-GFC |
| 5.41 | -3.96 | |
| 1.14 | -0.59 | Non-GFC |
| 5.30 | -3.09 | GFC |
| 8.33 | -4.30 | Non-GFC |
| 7.01 | -2.49 | Non-GFC |
| 6.04 | -3.24 | GFC |
| 0.68 | -1.16 | Non-GFC |
| 8.60 | -1.51 | Non-GFC |
| 1.48 | -5.93 | GFC |
| -0.55 | -1.03 | Non-GFC |
| -0.27 | -0.47 | Non-GFC |
| 4.18 | 0.43 | Non-GFC |
| -1.38 | -7.03 | GFC |
| 7.15 | -5.18 | Non-GFC |
| 24.09 | -5.50 | GFC |
| 5.18 | -8.82 | GFC |
| -0.54 | 1.32 | Non-GFC |
| 0.82 | 0.63 | Non-GFC |
| 2.79 | 0.14 | Non-GFC |
| 4.96 | 0.32 | Non-GFC |
| 2.02 | -3.36 | GFC |
| 0.88 | 0.05 | Non-GFC |
| 0.93 | -2.53 | Non-GFC |
| -7.62 | -1.30 | Non-GFC |
Linear (All): y = -0.11x - 2.18 R2 = 0.0863
Linear (Non-GFC): y = 0.004x - 1.35 R2 = 0.0002
See Table 1 for variable definitions. Depth is the percent decline in real GDP from the quarter before the start of the recession to the minimum value during the recession. OLS regression lines fitted to the data also shown on the chart.
Figure 3: Credit Expansions and Real GDP Growth
| Change in NFC Gap During Expansing (ppts) | 1-Yr GDP Change (%) | Country | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | 6.74 | US | 1955 - Q3 |
| 1.77 | 2.55 | US | 1968 - Q3 |
| 7.45 | 4.24 | US | 1979 - Q1 |
| 10.99 | 2.31 | US | 1993 - Q1 |
| 7.56 | -3.92 | US | 2004 - Q3 |
| 5.83 | 1.96 | US | 2012 - Q1 |
| 20.38 | 3.16 | IT | 1978 - Q3 |
| 7.95 | 1.10 | IT | 1989 - Q4 |
| 13.11 | -7.19 | IT | 1997 - Q4 |
| 25.32 | 5.60 | JP | 1979 - Q1 |
| 26.65 | 1.12 | JP | 2004 - Q3 |
| 7.45 | -10.29 | JP | 2015 - Q3 |
| 5.52 | 1.12 | AT | 1999 - Q1 |
| 6.27 | -0.26 | AT | 2007 - Q1 |
| 2.81 | 2.83 | CH | 2001 - Q4 |
| 9.61 | -0.59 | CH | 2006 - Q2 |
| 4.80 | 2.98 | CH | 2008 - Q4 |
| 8.12 | 0.46 | CH | 2015 - Q4 |
| 9.84 | -4.07 | CA | 1977 - Q4 |
| 9.06 | 0.51 | CA | 1987 - Q3 |
| 1.12 | 5.88 | CA | 1996 - Q2 |
| 7.18 | 2.58 | CA | 2000 - Q4 |
| 14.12 | 3.65 | CA | 2005 - Q4 |
| 14.28 | 1.65 | CA | 2011 - Q2 |
| 11.99 | -1.17 | UK | 1981 - Q2 |
| 11.45 | 2.35 | UK | 1995 - Q3 |
| 4.67 | 2.77 | UK | 2004 - Q1 |
| 10.35 | 1.71 | UK | 2015 - Q2 |
| 3.24 | 3.14 | DE | 1980 - Q1 |
| 6.34 | -0.85 | DE | 1995 - Q2 |
| 2.71 | 4.40 | DE | 2007 - Q4 |
| 9.92 | -11.25 | DE | 2011 - Q2 |
| 12.02 | -0.46 | SE | 1984 - Q2 |
| 21.14 | 2.18 | SE | 1996 - Q1 |
| 36.53 | 5.20 | SE | 2004 - Q4 |
| 11.27 | -7.37 | SE | 2016 - Q2 |
| 23.65 | 2.64 | ES | 1996 - Q1 |
| 11.11 | 1.74 | ES | 2004 - Q4 |
| 3.09 | -21.51 | ES | 2018 - Q1 |
| 3.27 | 2.23 | FR | 1978 - Q3 |
| 9.06 | 2.13 | FR | 1986 - Q4 |
| 10.05 | 1.24 | FR | 1998 - Q4 |
| 6.21 | 1.79 | FR | 2004 - Q4 |
| 5.38 | 0.77 | FR | 2011 - Q1 |
| 6.97 | 3.11 | FR | 2013 - Q4 |
| 1.91 | 8.33 | AU | 1980 - Q4 |
| 9.88 | 5.63 | AU | 1984 - Q4 |
| 18.60 | 4.05 | AU | 1994 - Q2 |
| 14.86 | 2.64 | AU | 2004 - Q1 |
| 13.28 | 2.71 | AU | 2011 - Q2 |
Linear: y = 0.08x + 0.07 R2 = 0.0119
See Table 1 for variable definitions. The change in real GDP during the year following the end of the credit expansion is plotted on the y axis.
Figure 4: NFC Credit Growth and Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic
| Country | Change in NFC Gap 2017:Q1 to 2020:Q2 (ppts) | Change in Real GDP 2019:Q4 to 2020:Q3 (pct) |
|---|---|---|
| US | 6.09 | -3.41 |
| CA | 3.86 | -5.25 |
| UK | 7.11 | -9.71 |
| SE | 6.86 | -3.09 |
| IT | 4.08 | -4.74 |
| FR | 11.04 | -3.73 |
| ES | 14.28 | -9.10 |
| CH | 9.78 | -1.92 |
| AU | -0.19 | -4.20 |
| AT | 4.28 | -3.73 |
| JP | 13.81 | -3.92 |
| DE | 5.49 | -3.97 |
Linear: y = -0.11x - 3.94 R2 = 0.0414
See Table 1 for variable definitions.
Last Update:
March 19, 2021