Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. China's Goods Trade Surplus

Figure 1 illustrates China's goods trade surplus measured using customs statistics and balance of payments (BOP) statistics, showing the divergence between the two measures following the 2021 methodological change.

Figure 1, titled "China's Goods Trade Surplus," is a line chart comparing China's four-quarter rolling goods trade surplus from 2015 through 2025, measured in trillions of U.S. dollars. Customs statistics are represented by a dashed gray line and BOP statistics following the 2025:Q4 release by a solid red line. Before 2021, the two series track each other relatively closely. A vertical dashed line marks the introduction of the BOP trade methodology change in 2021:Q1. After the methodology change, the customs surplus generally exceeds the BOP surplus, with the gap widening over much of the post-2021 period. By the end of 2025, the customs goods trade surplus is about $1.18 trillion and the BOP goods trade surplus is about $1.06 trillion, leaving a gap of roughly $120 billion.

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Figure 2. Revisions to China's BOP Trade Data

Figure 2 illustrates the revisions to China's BOP goods exports and imports following the release of the 2025:Q4 BOP data, showing that both series were revised substantially upward for previously published quarters going back to 2019.

Figure 2 contains two bar charts measured in billions of U.S. dollars. The left panel, titled "Exports," shows positive revisions to BOP goods exports for each quarter from 2019 through 2025. The revisions rise from less than $10 billion in early 2019 to roughly $25–$35 billion around 2020–2021, then increase more rapidly after 2022, reaching nearly $120 billion in recent quarters. The right panel, titled "Imports," shows positive revisions to BOP goods imports over the same period. Import revisions are around $10 billion in early 2019, rise to roughly $40–$50 billion by late 2019, and generally increase further after 2021, reaching about $80 billion by the end of the sample. The figure shows that the 2025:Q4 release resulted in large upward revisions to both exports and imports, with the largest recent export revisions exceeding the corresponding import revisions.

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Figure 3. Historical Comparison of Revisions to China's BOP Trade Data

Figure 3 compares the 2025:Q4 revisions to China's BOP goods exports and imports with revisions observed in previous annual data vintages, showing that the latest revisions are unusually large by historical standards.

Figure 3 contains two scatter plots measured in billions of U.S. dollars. The left panel shows average revisions to BOP goods exports and the right panel shows average revisions to BOP goods imports. For each year from 2020:Q4 through 2025:Q4, the Q4 vintage is compared with the preceding Q3 vintage, with revisions averaged over the prior 27 quarters. In both panels, revisions through 2024:Q4 are clustered close to zero, generally within a few billion dollars. The 2025:Q4 revision is highlighted by a red square and stands far above all earlier observations, at roughly $57 billion for exports and $59 billion for imports. The figure demonstrates that the 2025:Q4 historical revisions were much larger than comparable revisions in earlier vintages.

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Figure 4. China's Exports and Imports Comparison

Figure 4 compares China's goods exports and imports across customs statistics and two vintages of BOP statistics, showing that the 2025 historical revisions largely eliminated the export discrepancy while widening the import discrepancy.

Figure 4 contains two line charts of four-quarter rolling goods trade flows from 2019 through 2025, measured in trillions of U.S. dollars. In each panel, customs statistics are represented by a dashed gray line, the revised 2025:Q4 BOP series by a solid red line, and the previously published 2025:Q3 BOP series by a dotted red line. A vertical dashed line marks the BOP trade methodology change in 2021:Q1. In the left panel, titled "Exports," the previously published BOP series lies below customs exports after 2021. The revised BOP series shifts upward and moves much closer to the customs series by 2025, largely eliminating the previous export discrepancy. In the right panel, titled "Imports," BOP imports exceed customs imports after 2021. The revised BOP series shifts further upward relative to both the earlier BOP vintage and customs imports, widening the import discrepancy.

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Figure 5. Contribution to Gap between China's Customs and BOP Trade Data

Figure 5 illustrates how discrepancies in exports and imports contributed to the overall gap between China's customs and BOP goods trade balances before and after the 2025 historical revisions.

Figure 5 is a stacked bar chart showing the percentage contributions of export and import discrepancies to the overall customs-BOP goods trade balance gap. Two bars are shown: "Before Historical Revision" and "After Historical Revision." Before the historical revision, the gap is almost evenly divided between exports and imports: exports account for 49.1 percent and imports for 50.9 percent. After the historical revision, the composition changes sharply: exports account for only 3.4 percent of the gap, while imports account for 96.6 percent. The figure shows that nearly all of the remaining discrepancy between the customs and BOP trade balances is now concentrated on the import side.

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Figure 6. China's Current Account

Figure 6 compares China's official current account balance with an alternative estimate that replaces the BOP goods trade balance with the corresponding customs measure.

Figure 6 is a line chart of China's four-quarter current account balance as a share of GDP from 2000 through 2025. The official current account is represented by a solid red line. The alternative estimate using the customs goods trade balance is represented by a dashed gray line and is shown for the period following the 2021 methodology change. The official current account rises above 10 percent of GDP around 2007, then declines substantially and approaches zero around 2020. A vertical dashed line marks the BOP trade methodology change in 2021:Q1. After 2021, the alternative estimate generally lies above the official series. By the end of 2025, the official current account surplus is approximately 3.8 percent of GDP, compared with approximately 4.4 percent of GDP under the alternative estimate, a difference of about 0.6 percentage point of GDP.

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Figure A1. China’s Goods Trade Surplus

Figure A.1 compares China's customs goods trade balance with the BOP goods trade balance before and after the 2025:Q4 historical revisions.

Figure A.1 is a line chart of China's four-quarter goods trade surplus from 2015 through 2025, measured in trillions of U.S. dollars. The customs series is shown as a dashed gray line, the revised BOP series following the 2025:Q4 release as a solid red line, and the BOP series as previously published through 2025:Q3 as a dotted red line. A vertical dashed line marks the methodology change in 2021:Q1. Before 2021, the customs and BOP measures are close. After 2021, both BOP vintages remain below the customs surplus. The revised BOP series is generally above the earlier BOP vintage in recent years, modestly narrowing the overall customs-BOP trade balance gap.

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Figure A2. Historical Revisions Chinese Customs Data using Vintage Releases

Figure A.2 compares revisions to China's customs goods exports and imports across successive data vintages, showing that the underlying customs data were largely unrevised.

Figure A.2 contains two scatter plots measured in billions of U.S. dollars. The left panel shows average revisions to customs goods exports and the right panel shows average revisions to customs goods imports. For each year from 2020:Q4 through 2025:Q4, the Q4 vintage is compared with the preceding Q3 vintage, with revisions averaged over the prior 27 quarters. In both panels, all observations lie very close to zero. The 2025 revision is highlighted by a red square and is also approximately zero for both exports and imports. The figure indicates that, unlike the BOP data, China's customs trade data experienced little revision across these vintages.

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Figure B1. China's Other Current Account Components

Figure B.1 compares China's BOP goods trade balance with its primary income balance and services trade balance, providing context for whether the 2021 trade methodology change was accompanied by offsetting movements elsewhere in the current account.

Figure B.1 is a line chart of four-quarter balances from 2015 through 2025, measured in trillions of U.S. dollars. The goods trade balance is shown as a solid red line, the primary income balance as a dashed blue line, and the services trade balance as a dotted black line. A vertical dashed line marks the BOP trade methodology change in 2021:Q1. The goods trade surplus rises substantially after 2021 and exceeds $1 trillion by the end of 2025. The primary income balance remains negative throughout the post-2021 period and becomes more negative for part of the period rather than showing a clear offsetting improvement. The services trade balance also remains negative and, by the end of 2025, is around negative $0.24 trillion, close to levels observed before the pandemic.

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