Accessible Version
Supply Chain Risk and Bank Lending Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty, Accessible Data
Figure 1: Committed C&I loans
Loan levels are normalized to 2024:Q3 so that 2024:Q3=100
| Date | Low Supply Chain (SC) Exposure | High Supply Chain (SC) Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q2 | 100.2 | 100.6 |
| 2024 Q3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2024 Q4 | 99.5 | 95.9 |
| 2025 Q1 | 101.2 | 95.8 |
| 2025 Q2 | 102.4 | 97.7 |
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1 for C&I loans); authors’ calculations.
Figure 2: Utilized C&I loans
Loan levels are normalized to 2024:Q3 so that 2024:Q3=100
| Date | Low Supply Chain (SC) Exposure | High Supply Chain (SC) Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q2 | 104.1 | 101.9 |
| 2024 Q3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2024 Q4 | 100.8 | 96.6 |
| 2025 Q1 | 105.9 | 98.0 |
| 2025 Q2 | 105.6 | 100.4 |
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1 for C&I loans); authors’ calculations.
Figure 3: Share of drawn C&I credit
Shares are normalized to 2024:Q3 so that 2024:Q3=100
| Date | Low Supply Chain (SC) Exposure | High Supply Chain (SC) Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q2 | 103.9 | 101.3 |
| 2024 Q3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2024 Q4 | 101.2 | 100.7 |
| 2025 Q1 | 104.6 | 102.3 |
| 2025 Q2 | 103.1 | 102.8 |
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1 for C&I loans); authors’ calculations.
Figure 4: C&I loan spreads
Spreads are normalized to 2024:Q3 so that 2024:Q3=100
| Date | Low Supply Chain (SC) Exposure | High Supply Chain (SC) Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q2 | 99.3 | 100.1 |
| 2024 Q3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2024 Q4 | 100.3 | 100.4 |
| 2025 Q1 | 99.6 | 100.5 |
| 2025 Q2 | 98.4 | 101.6 |
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1 for C&I loans); authors’ calculations.
Figure 5: C&I loans on banks’ books, weekly bank balance sheet data
Loan levels are normalized to 2024:Q3 so that 2024:Q3=100
| Date | Low Supply Chain (SC) Exposure | High Supply Chain (SC) Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| 6/26/2024 | 99.6 | 98.8 |
| 7/3/2024 | 99.4 | 99.3 |
| 7/10/2024 | 99.0 | 98.3 |
| 7/17/2024 | 98.9 | 98.2 |
| 7/24/2024 | 98.6 | 98.3 |
| 7/31/2024 | 99.5 | 99.0 |
| 8/7/2024 | 98.6 | 98.7 |
| 8/14/2024 | 98.7 | 98.6 |
| 8/21/2024 | 98.9 | 98.8 |
| 8/28/2024 | 99.0 | 98.9 |
| 9/4/2024 | 99.3 | 99.2 |
| 9/11/2024 | 99.3 | 99.0 |
| 9/18/2024 | 99.2 | 99.4 |
| 9/25/2024 | 99.8 | 99.6 |
| 10/2/2024 | 99.7 | 100.0 |
| 10/9/2024 | 99.1 | 99.0 |
| 10/16/2024 | 99.5 | 99.9 |
| 10/23/2024 | 99.1 | 99.3 |
| 10/30/2024 | 100.2 | 100.2 |
| 11/6/2024 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 11/13/2024 | 100.3 | 99.9 |
| 11/20/2024 | 100.3 | 100.1 |
| 11/27/2024 | 101.2 | 100.8 |
| 12/4/2024 | 101.4 | 100.6 |
| 12/11/2024 | 101.9 | 100.7 |
| 12/18/2024 | 102.5 | 101.3 |
| 12/25/2024 | 102.8 | 101.3 |
| 1/1/2025 | 101.7 | 99.8 |
| 1/8/2025 | 101.7 | 99.5 |
| 1/15/2025 | 101.9 | 99.4 |
| 1/22/2025 | 102.1 | 99.6 |
| 1/29/2025 | 102.3 | 99.9 |
| 2/5/2025 | 103.1 | 99.6 |
| 2/12/2025 | 102.4 | 99.9 |
| 2/19/2025 | 103.3 | 100.6 |
| 2/26/2025 | 103.8 | 100.5 |
| 3/5/2025 | 104.5 | 101.9 |
| 3/12/2025 | 104.4 | 101.6 |
| 3/19/2025 | 104.2 | 102.0 |
| 3/26/2025 | 104.7 | 102.7 |
| 4/2/2025 | 105.6 | 104.6 |
| 4/9/2025 | 105.4 | 104.9 |
| 4/16/2025 | 106.3 | 106.0 |
| 4/23/2025 | 106.0 | 105.6 |
| 4/30/2025 | 106.8 | 106.4 |
| 5/7/2025 | 106.4 | 105.5 |
| 5/14/2025 | 106.4 | 105.7 |
| 5/21/2025 | 106.6 | 106.0 |
| 5/28/2025 | 106.4 | 106.3 |
| 6/4/2025 | 106.4 | 106.4 |
| 6/11/2025 | 106.2 | 106.3 |
| 6/18/2025 | 106.8 | 107.1 |
| 6/25/2025 | 107.4 | 107.4 |
| 7/2/2025 | 107.3 | 107.5 |
| 7/9/2025 | 106.4 | 107.1 |
| 7/16/2025 | 106.4 | 106.9 |
| 7/23/2025 | 106.7 | 107.1 |
| 7/30/2025 | 107.2 | 107.8 |
| 8/6/2025 | 107.4 | 107.7 |
| 8/13/2025 | 106.9 | 107.9 |
| 8/20/2025 | 106.9 | 107.7 |
| 8/27/2025 | 107.8 | 108.2 |
| 9/3/2025 | 108.2 | 109.2 |
| 9/10/2025 | 108.1 | 108.7 |
| 9/17/2025 | 108.5 | 108.7 |
| 9/24/2025 | 108.7 | 109.2 |
| 10/1/2025 | 109.6 | 109.8 |
Note: The vertical lines indicate dates for Election Day: 11/05/2024, Global Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: 03/12/2025, Scale of April 2 Tariffs Foreshadowed: 03/21/2025, and April 2 Reciprocal Tariffs Announced: 04/02/2025, respectively
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR 2644; authors’ calculations.
Figure 6: Factors contributing to changes in net demand for C&I loans since the beginning of the year
Net percent of respondents
| Factors | Net Percent |
|---|---|
| Strengthened demand | |
| Investment needs to build inventories due to trade developments | 26.7 |
| Investment needs due to trade-related shifts in product availability of pricing | 13.6 |
| Weakened demand | |
| Investment needs due to interest rates and terms | -3.3 |
| Attractiveness of other bank credit sources | -5.1 |
| Investment needs due to outlook for economic activity | -6.7 |
| Attractiveness of nonbank credit sources | -16.9 |
Figure 6 shows selected responses to an October 2025 SLOOS special question about factors contributing to changes in net demand for C&I loans since the beginning of 2025. The net percent of respondents reporting given reasons are shown in order of highest magnitude for strengthened demand (positive net percent) to highest magnitude for weakened demand (negative net percent) over 2025. Following this order, the reasons for strengthened demand are: investment needs to build inventories due to trade developments; and investment needs due to trade-related shifts in product availability or pricing. The reasons for weakened demand are: investment needs due to interest rates and terms; attractiveness of other bank credit sources; investment needs due to outlook for economic activity; and attractiveness of nonbank credit sources.
Source: October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS).