Accessible Version
Technology Shocks, the AI Boom, and the U.S. Current Account, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Import share of equipment and of high-tech equipment
This figure is comprised of two line charts, each showing data from 2010 through 2025. The chart on the left shows the gross import share of equipment (thicker black line) and net import share of equipment (thinner blue line). The black line stays near 60% until near 2019, where it rises to near 70%. The blue line increases from 0 to 10% between 2010 and 2019, then increases to 30% by 2025, following the same pattern as the black line.
The chart on the right shows the gross import share of high tech equipment (thicker black line) and net import share of high tech equipment (thinner blue line). Both lines follow the same pattern, staying centered around 70% for the black line and 30% for the blue line until 2019, then increasing rapidly to almost 100% for the black line and 60% for the blue line.
Source: FRB staff calculations using data from the BEA and U.S. Census BOP. See Appendix for more details.
Figure 2. Investment-specific technology shock
This figure is comprised of 4 panels, each showing an impulse response of how variables react given an investment-specific technology shock. Each panel shows 0 to 20 quarters on the x-axis. The blue lines of each panel report the bootstrapped median impulse response and the dashed red lines show the 84% confidence intervals.
The top left panel shows the price of investment (level), with the percent being reported in the y-axis. The blue line initially starts between 0 and -0.5, then decrease to near -0.5 by period 5, where it remains through period 20. The dashed red lines do not cross 0.
The top right panel shows the output per capita (level), with the percent being reported in the y-axis. The blue line initially starts near 0, increasing to near 0.4 around period 7, then steadily decreasing to around 0.2 by period 20. The lower dashed red line crosses 0 for all periods, except between periods 4 and 8. The upper dashed lines do not cross 0.
The bottom left panel shows the current account, with percentage points being reported in the y-axis. The blue line starts near -0.1, decreases to near -0.2 for periods 1 through 5, then steadily increases to near -0.05 through period 20. The top dashed-red line crosses 0, except for periods 1 through 5. The lower dashed lines do not cross 0.
The bottom right panel shows the import price (level), with the percent being reported in the y-axis. The blue line starts near 0.5, jumps to 1 in periods 2 and 3, then declines to 0.75 in period 5, finally steadily increasing to 1 by period 20. The dashed red lines do not cross 0.
Note: The continuous blue line reports the bootstrapped median impulse response, and the dashed red lines the 84 percent confidence intervals following Runkle (1987).
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Figure 3. Impact of U.S. investment-specific shocks: one year horizon
This figure is comprised of two bar charts. The chart on the left shows impulse-response coefficients for the level of GDP in response to a one-standard-deviation investment-specific shock. The x-axis consists of Mexico, Taiwan, Korea, Canada, Japan, and China. The y-axis is the percent between 0 and 0.8. All coefficients are positive; economies with high concentration in technology-intensive sectors, such as Mexico and Taiwan, have the largest coefficients. Each coefficient is labeled with its p-value that are as follows: Mexico – p = 0.005, Taiwan – p = 0.022, Korea – p = 0.000, Canada – p = 0.044, Japan – p = 0.046, and China – p = 0.015.
The chart on the right shows impulse-response coefficients for inflation in response to a one-standard-deviation investment-specific shock. The x-axis consists of Mexico, Taiwan, Korea, Canada, Japan, and China. The y-axis is the percentage point between -0.10 and 0.25, and each coefficient is labeled with its p-value that are as follows: Mexico – p = 0.292, Taiwan – p = 0.018, Korea – p = 0.712, Canada – p = 0.0.092, Japan – p = 0.301, and China – p = 0.616. All coefficients are between – 0.10 and 0.10, except for Taiwan which reaches over 0.20.
Note: Estimated effects of U.S. investment-specific shocks on foreign economies' GDP and inflation, with associated p-values.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Figure 4. Import price indices by category: total imports, total goods, and computers and semiconductors
This figure is a bar chart that shows the import price index across time. The x-axis contains 3 year groups: “2000-2019”, “2020-2023”, and “2024-2025”. The y-axis shows the q-q annualized growth (percent), which ranges from -5 to 3. In each year-group, there are 3 bars: the first bar (black bar) represents total imports, the middle bar (red bar) represents good imports, and the third bar (blue bar) represents computer imports. In “2000-2019”, the red and black bars are positive, near 1, and the blue bar is -4. In “2020-2023”, the red and black bars are positive, near 2.5, and the blue bar is around -0.5. In “2024-2025”, all 3 bars are positive, being between 0 and 1.5. The blue bar is the highest, being around 1.5.
Source: BEA NIPA Tables.