Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Note: "Task duration" is defined as the time at which a logistic regression of success rate on completion time predicts the model would have a 50% success rate. 95% confidence intervals around estimates are not shown.

Source: METR; Kwa et al. (2025).

Note: This graph shows the cost of leading GPUs per unit of memory bandwidth (dollars per GB/s) and per unit of compute (dollars per TFLOP/s), based on hardware release date. Best fit line shown as the dashed line.

Source: Epoch AI (Epoch AI, 2025).

Note: The Korean export price indexes capture export prices for DRAM and semiconductors more broadly. All series are indexed to 2022.

Source: Bank of Korea.

Note: We measure capital expenditure as total purchases of “property and equipment” as reported on a company’s 10-Q filing. Key identifies series in order from top to bottom. “Other” includes Oracle and Coreweave. The latter went public in Q1 of 2025 but released data for 2024 in its first financial report.

Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Note: Both panels show seasonally adjusted, annualized rates. The left panel shows monthly private construction of data centers. The right panel shows quarterly private nonresidential investment in computers and peripheral equipment.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Note: Index of U.S. industrial production for semiconductors and other electronic components (NAICS 3344).

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Note: Contribution to annualized quarter-over-quarter GDP growth from selected components. Net exports computed using down-weighted nominal GDP shares of imports and exports, respectively. See the appendix for construction and limitations. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; authors’ calculations.

Note: 4-period moving average of data which come out every two weeks. Share of firms reporting AI use in the last two weeks, by employment size.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey.

Note: Average labor productivity measured as change in the log of real value added minus the change in the log of the product of average weekly hours and total employment. High AI Exposure industries include Information, Finance, Professional and Business Services. Medium AI Exposure industries include Wholesale Trade, Manufacturing, Education and Health Services, Retail Trade. Low AI Exposure industries include Utilities, Construction, Leisure and Hospitality, Transportation and Warehousing. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Authors’ Calculations.

Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (JOLTS).