The Global Trade Effects of the AI Infrastructure Boom, Accessible Data

Figure 1. AI-Related Computing Capacity

Left Panel 1A. Existing Capacity (through H1 2025)

date China European Union Rest of world U.S.
1/16/2020 7.38 0.65 3.00 7.26
2/16/2020 7.38 1.56 3.00 7.26
3/16/2020 7.38 1.56 3.13 7.26
4/16/2020 7.38 2.06 3.19 8.71
5/16/2020 7.38 2.06 3.19 9.64
6/16/2020 8.67 2.39 3.51 10.46
7/16/2020 9.67 2.45 3.62 10.96
8/16/2020 9.67 2.45 3.62 11.36
9/16/2020 11.27 2.45 3.62 11.58
10/16/2020 11.27 2.45 4.10 11.58
11/16/2020 12.60 3.78 4.40 14.23
12/16/2020 12.60 3.78 4.40 14.23
1/16/2021 12.60 3.78 5.52 14.58
2/16/2021 12.60 3.86 5.71 14.58
3/16/2021 18.60 4.01 5.84 14.58
4/16/2021 22.60 4.09 5.88 14.68
5/16/2021 22.70 4.09 7.00 18.14
6/16/2021 22.70 5.70 8.05 21.79
7/16/2021 26.20 5.70 8.05 21.79
8/16/2021 26.30 5.70 8.05 23.59
9/16/2021 26.60 5.85 8.37 23.59
10/16/2021 26.70 6.27 8.37 23.59
11/16/2021 26.70 6.27 10.88 25.29
12/16/2021 27.20 6.27 11.04 26.23
1/16/2022 27.20 6.27 12.57 28.13
2/16/2022 27.20 6.27 12.57 29.27
3/16/2022 27.20 6.27 12.57 29.27
4/16/2022 28.00 6.27 12.57 39.19
5/16/2022 28.50 6.27 12.88 65.74
6/16/2022 28.50 7.54 13.40 66.02
7/16/2022 30.50 7.54 14.95 66.02
8/16/2022 43.50 7.54 14.95 68.32
9/16/2022 43.70 12.10 14.95 68.60
10/16/2022 43.80 12.10 15.19 74.51
11/16/2022 45.80 16.41 16.36 75.21
12/16/2022 45.90 16.41 16.82 75.21
1/16/2023 46.90 16.41 16.98 79.50
2/16/2023 46.90 16.41 17.94 79.88
3/16/2023 46.90 16.41 22.61 83.84
4/16/2023 47.30 16.41 22.77 83.84
5/16/2023 47.80 16.41 23.13 89.84
6/16/2023 48.60 17.00 23.93 96.62
7/16/2023 48.90 17.00 24.46 121.37
8/16/2023 49.80 17.54 24.59 147.02
9/16/2023 54.00 17.54 25.77 156.91
10/16/2023 54.00 18.55 25.93 163.79
11/16/2023 54.00 24.48 44.88 216.07
12/16/2023 54.50 24.48 50.97 247.77
1/16/2024 63.50 24.48 50.97 247.77
2/16/2024 63.50 24.48 51.22 249.77
3/16/2024 128.70 24.48 61.86 335.16
4/16/2024 129.10 26.37 81.97 355.20
5/16/2024 137.10 34.29 87.99 359.04
6/16/2024 176.10 35.39 120.68 363.92
7/16/2024 216.10 40.12 141.59 368.76
8/16/2024 231.10 40.12 141.59 411.37
9/16/2024 239.10 43.72 153.20 511.26
10/16/2024 271.10 45.23 165.59 729.87
11/16/2024 297.10 50.55 168.63 915.28
12/16/2024 349.10 50.55 168.63 919.20
1/16/2025   58.56 181.49 920.21
2/16/2025   58.56 181.49 1,118.21
3/16/2025   58.56 181.49 1,120.24
4/16/2025   58.56 181.49 1,124.20
5/16/2025   58.56 181.49 1,124.20
6/16/2025   84.52 197.10 1,128.19
7/16/2025 359.00 84.52 197.10 1,401.19

Right Panel 1B. Planned Capacity (through 2030)

date U.S. Rest of world European Union
1/16/2014 - - -
11/16/2016 0.02 0.06 NA
5/16/2017 0.20 NA NA
6/16/2017 0.23 0.19 NA
10/16/2017 2.98 NA NA
11/16/2017 3.01 0.40 NA
1/16/2018 NA NA 0.06
3/16/2018 3.67 0.41 NA
6/16/2018 9.29 1.00 NA
7/16/2018 NA 1.09 NA
11/16/2018 9.70 1.34 NA
4/16/2019 NA 1.46 NA
5/16/2019 NA 1.59 NA
6/16/2019 NA 2.05 0.61
7/16/2019 9.83 2.18 NA
8/16/2019 9.89 NA NA
9/16/2019 10.07 2.24 0.65
10/16/2019 NA 2.35 NA
11/16/2019 10.34 2.88 NA
12/16/2019 10.78 NA NA
1/16/2020 NA 3.08 NA
2/16/2020 NA NA 1.56
3/16/2020 NA 3.21 NA
4/16/2020 12.23 3.27 2.06
5/16/2020 13.16 NA NA
6/16/2020 13.97 3.59 2.39
7/16/2020 14.48 3.71 2.45
8/16/2020 14.87 NA NA
9/16/2020 15.09 NA NA
10/16/2020 NA 4.18 NA
11/16/2020 17.74 4.48 3.78
1/16/2021 18.09 5.60 NA
2/16/2021 NA 5.79 3.86
3/16/2021 NA 5.92 4.01
4/16/2021 18.19 5.96 4.09
5/16/2021 21.65 7.08 NA
6/16/2021 25.30 8.13 5.70
8/16/2021 27.11 NA NA
9/16/2021 NA 8.45 5.85
10/16/2021 NA NA 6.27
11/16/2021 28.80 10.97 NA
12/16/2021 29.75 11.12 NA
1/16/2022 31.65 12.65 NA
2/16/2022 32.79 NA NA
4/16/2022 42.70 NA NA
5/16/2022 69.25 12.96 NA
6/16/2022 69.54 13.49 7.54
7/16/2022 NA 15.03 NA
8/16/2022 71.84 NA NA
9/16/2022 72.12 NA 12.10
10/16/2022 78.03 15.27 NA
11/16/2022 78.73 16.44 16.41
12/16/2022 NA 16.90 NA
1/16/2023 83.02 17.06 NA
2/16/2023 83.40 18.02 NA
3/16/2023 87.36 22.69 NA
4/16/2023 NA 22.85 NA
5/16/2023 108.16 23.21 NA
6/16/2023 114.94 24.01 17.00
7/16/2023 139.69 24.54 NA
8/16/2023 165.34 24.67 17.54
9/16/2023 175.23 25.86 NA
10/16/2023 182.11 26.02 18.55
11/16/2023 234.39 44.97 24.48
12/16/2023 266.09 51.06 NA
2/16/2024 268.08 51.30 NA
3/16/2024 353.48 61.95 NA
4/16/2024 373.52 82.06 26.37
5/16/2024 377.35 88.07 34.29
6/16/2024 382.24 120.76 35.39
7/16/2024 387.08 141.67 40.12
8/16/2024 429.69 NA NA
9/16/2024 529.58 153.28 43.72
10/16/2024 748.19 165.67 45.23
11/16/2024 933.60 168.71 50.55
12/16/2024 937.52 NA NA
1/16/2025 938.53 181.57 58.56
2/16/2025 1,136.53 NA NA
3/16/2025 1,138.56 NA NA
4/16/2025 1,142.52 NA NA
6/16/2025 1,146.51 197.19 84.52
7/16/2025 1,419.51 NA NA
12/16/2025 2,943.14 332.58 158.32
12/16/2026 9,972.04 1,294.75 258.32
12/16/2027 15,682.04 2,424.75 278.12
12/16/2028 NA 7,950.65 2,578.12
12/16/2029 NA 10,610.65 NA
12/16/2030 40,867.25 32,299.68 2,603.32

Notes: Point operations (calculations) per second measure the quantity and speed of supercomputer computing capacity.  Figures are scaled to quintillions (1018) for readability.  Figures represent the sum of each reported AI supercomputer or cluster’s reported capacity reported by Epoch AI. Artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputer capacity figures represent an estimated 10 to 20 percent of existing global computing capacity.  Data extend through July 2025 in the left panel.  Chinese data, including the July 2025 point shown by the red dot, reflect verified systems and should be interpreted as lower-bound estimates, reflecting both limited coverage and the broader opacity surrounding China’s computing infrastructure data. The right chart shows planned AI cluster expansion available in the data through 2030. Clusters with 16-bit OP/s of less than 1x1020 marked as planned without a year specified in the data are included in the 2030 cumulative figure. We omit Chinese data from the right panel because of limited information on planned projects through 2030.

Source: Epoch AI, FRB Staff Calculations.

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Figure 2. AI-Related Imports

Left Panel 2A. Global AI Imports

date World AI imports
1/1/2022 24.15
2/1/2022 20.04
3/1/2022 23.43
4/1/2022 23.52
5/1/2022 23.56
6/1/2022 24.41
7/1/2022 24.38
8/1/2022 22.79
9/1/2022 23.18
10/1/2022 23.39
11/1/2022 22.88
12/1/2022 22.43
1/1/2023 18.30
2/1/2023 16.37
3/1/2023 20.85
4/1/2023 18.82
5/1/2023 18.97
6/1/2023 20.42
7/1/2023 20.92
8/1/2023 21.43
9/1/2023 22.11
10/1/2023 24.71
11/1/2023 23.65
12/1/2023 22.82
1/1/2024 22.18
2/1/2024 21.19
3/1/2024 28.07
4/1/2024 29.24
5/1/2024 30.36
6/1/2024 34.16
7/1/2024 38.53
8/1/2024 37.16
9/1/2024 39.93
10/1/2024 38.95
11/1/2024 36.27
12/1/2024 37.15
1/1/2025 39.56
2/1/2025 35.40
3/1/2025 52.32
4/1/2025 46.76
5/1/2025 51.99
6/1/2025 46.15
7/1/2025 49.82

Right Panel 2B. AI Imports by Country

date Mexico China and Hong Kong European Union U.S.
1/1/2022 0.86 7.21 2.70 5.83
2/1/2022 1.50 4.71 2.43 5.06
3/1/2022 1.09 5.51 2.27 7.13
4/1/2022 1.50 5.70 2.16 7.10
5/1/2022 1.45 6.00 2.43 6.87
6/1/2022 1.42 6.05 2.25 7.57
7/1/2022 1.41 5.96 2.34 7.36
8/1/2022 1.46 5.03 2.30 6.99
9/1/2022 1.47 5.45 2.18 7.04
10/1/2022 1.38 5.06 2.51 6.90
11/1/2022 1.51 4.81 2.81 6.88
12/1/2022 1.07 4.95 2.65 6.84
1/1/2023 1.06 3.33 2.79 4.88
2/1/2023 1.00 3.03 1.90 4.71
3/1/2023 0.96 4.65 2.13 6.12
4/1/2023 1.05 4.72 2.22 4.90
5/1/2023 1.14 4.25 2.21 5.90
6/1/2023 1.30 4.81 2.09 6.08
7/1/2023 0.97 4.92 3.53 6.25
8/1/2023 1.12 4.81 2.93 6.72
9/1/2023 1.05 5.67 2.70 6.59
10/1/2023 1.25 6.58 2.49 7.86
11/1/2023 1.23 5.34 2.72 7.55
12/1/2023 1.14 5.51 2.96 6.31
1/1/2024 1.05 4.35 2.74 7.06
2/1/2024 1.36 4.05 2.36 6.26
3/1/2024 1.05 6.05 2.90 8.39
4/1/2024 1.46 6.61 3.27 9.30
5/1/2024 1.41 7.17 3.16 10.05
6/1/2024 1.78 8.82 3.04 10.99
7/1/2024 1.94 10.29 4.27 13.18
8/1/2024 1.89 9.60 3.20 13.04
9/1/2024 1.69 11.08 3.08 13.14
10/1/2024 1.80 11.19 2.97 12.10
11/1/2024 1.95 9.52 3.05 11.27
12/1/2024 1.80 9.39 2.70 12.84
1/1/2025 2.20 8.46 3.50 13.20
2/1/2025 1.88 8.81 2.73 13.57
3/1/2025 2.16 18.73 3.44 18.09
4/1/2025 2.48 12.06 4.26 18.18
5/1/2025 4.44 13.19 3.57 21.32
6/1/2025 4.12 9.61 4.31 21.24
7/1/2025 3.49 9.43 4.54 24.29

Notes: Exports related to artificial intelligence (AI) are measured as the sum of Harmonized System (HS) codes 8471.50, 8471.80, and 8473.30, which include, among other products, servers, graphical processing units, and related parts associated with AI hardware.  These data may underestimate AI-related trade flows because they may omit some AI-related products included in other HS categories.  Because these HS codes capture non-AI products as well, however, they may also overestimate the trade flows of AI-specific products. Data are monthly and extend through July 2025.  

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs / Statistics Division. United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, http://comtrade.un.org/db/; General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China; Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 3. World Merchandise Trade (Index)
date World total imports World AI imports
2/16/2018 100.00 100.00
5/16/2018 102.75 104.56
8/16/2018 103.16 110.02
11/16/2018 104.06 114.06
2/16/2019 97.70 97.31
5/16/2019 100.34 99.89
8/16/2019 100.41 98.78
11/16/2019 101.38 106.90
2/16/2020 92.85 91.78
5/16/2020 79.45 102.08
8/16/2020 94.31 108.49
11/16/2020 103.39 111.56
2/16/2021 105.85 104.59
5/16/2021 115.06 115.40
8/16/2021 117.88 126.56
11/16/2021 128.36 137.21
2/16/2022 129.26 125.34
5/16/2022 135.59 132.54
8/16/2022 135.34 130.40
11/16/2022 131.13 127.34
2/16/2023 126.31 102.92
5/16/2023 125.49 107.91
8/16/2023 123.77 119.50
11/16/2023 127.27 132.01
2/16/2024 123.34 132.47
5/16/2024 127.20 173.85
8/16/2024 130.38 214.36
11/16/2024 133.13 208.32
2/16/2025 130.94 236.04
5/16/2025 135.76 268.85

Note: Imports related to artificial intelligence (AI) are measured as the sum of Harmonized System (HS) codes 8471.50, 8471.80, and 8473.30, which include, among other products, servers, graphical processing units, and related parts associated with AI hardware.  Quarterly data extend through 2025:Q2.  

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs / Statistics Division. United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, http://comtrade.un.org/db/; General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China; Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 4. AI-Related Exports of Selected Export-Oriented Economies

Left Panel 4A. AI-Related Exports to the U.S.

date China and Hong Kong Mexico Vietnam Taiwan
2/16/2022 0.04 2.10 1.22 2.00
5/15/2022 0.06 2.38 1.33 2.24
8/15/2022 0.05 2.71 0.95 2.46
11/16/2022 0.04 2.38 0.82 2.51
2/16/2023 0.04 1.66 0.50 2.46
5/15/2023 0.04 1.48 0.54 2.58
8/15/2023 0.05 1.23 0.76 4.01
11/16/2023 0.04 1.57 0.94 3.66
2/16/2024 0.04 1.58 1.05 4.04
5/15/2024 0.04 2.26 1.34 5.88
8/15/2024 0.04 3.14 1.86 8.21
11/16/2024 0.03 3.15 2.08 5.70
2/16/2025 0.04 4.17 2.78 8.26
5/15/2025 0.03 4.46 2.60 13.53

Right Panel 4B. AI-Related Exports to the Rest of the World

date.x China and Hong Kong Mexico Vietnam Taiwan
2/16/2022 0.48 0.29 2.61 2.62
5/15/2022 0.47 0.27 2.61 2.83
8/15/2022 0.42 0.27 2.66 2.97
11/16/2022 0.39 0.29 2.03 3.53
2/16/2023 0.36 0.25 1.83 2.69
5/15/2023 0.35 0.21 2.38 3.30
8/15/2023 0.36 0.20 2.65 4.66
11/16/2023 0.36 0.20 3.02 4.28
2/16/2024 0.38 0.24 3.75 4.82
5/15/2024 0.39 0.24 4.87 7.26
8/15/2024 0.43 0.77 5.37 10.12
11/16/2024 0.38 0.64 4.70 10.38
2/16/2025 0.37 0.90 6.50 14.04
5/15/2025 0.39 0.98 6.96 9.36

Note: Exports related to artificial intelligence (AI) are measured as the sum of Harmonized System (HS) codes 8471.50, 8471.80, and 8473.30, which include, among other products, servers, graphical processing units, and related parts associated with AI hardware.  These data may underestimate AI-related trade flows because they may omit some AI-related products included in other HS categories.  Because these HS codes capture non-AI products as well, however, they may also overestimate the trade flows of AI-specific products.  Data are quarterly and extend through 2025:Q2. 

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs / Statistics Division. United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, http://comtrade.un.org/db/; General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China; Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 5. Discrepancies in AI-Related Product Reporting

Left Panel 5A. U.S. Imports from Taiwan

date 847150 847180 847330
1/1/2023 0.34 0.23 0.73
2/1/2023 0.29 0.31 0.86
3/1/2023 0.30 0.40 0.95
4/1/2023 0.20 0.30 0.87
5/1/2023 0.34 0.14 1.36
6/1/2023 0.36 0.12 1.07
7/1/2023 0.94 0.12 1.16
8/1/2023 1.00 0.21 1.43
9/1/2023 1.11 0.17 1.42
10/1/2023 1.04 0.28 1.48
11/1/2023 0.93 0.26 1.68
12/1/2023 0.73 0.18 0.69
1/1/2024 0.81 0.63 1.33
2/1/2024 0.96 0.25 0.70
3/1/2024 1.33 0.37 1.45
4/1/2024 1.16 0.57 1.94
5/1/2024 1.04 0.36 2.24
6/1/2024 1.48 0.60 1.97
7/1/2024 1.85 0.39 4.45
8/1/2024 2.27 0.58 2.72
9/1/2024 2.20 0.24 1.69
10/1/2024 0.93 1.36 2.29
11/1/2024 0.77 0.60 2.20
12/1/2024 1.13 0.70 2.00
1/1/2025 0.98 0.91 3.24
2/1/2025 1.34 0.91 3.02
3/1/2025 1.58 1.53 3.17
4/1/2025 2.07 2.96 3.60
5/1/2025 5.94 0.91 3.72
6/1/2025 6.72 0.58 3.31
7/1/2025 8.94 1.02 2.96

Right Panel 5B. Taiwan Exports to the U.S.

date 847150 847180 847330
1/1/2023 0.23 0.37 0.48
2/1/2023 0.26 0.24 0.39
3/1/2023 0.29 0.53 0.44
4/1/2023 0.10 0.66 0.49
5/1/2023 0.27 0.54 0.57
6/1/2023 0.28 0.31 0.49
7/1/2023 1.05 0.74 0.61
8/1/2023 0.99 0.35 0.67
9/1/2023 0.99 0.74 0.49
10/1/2023 1.13 1.28 0.56
11/1/2023 0.88 1.96 0.53
12/1/2023 0.87 2.38 0.55
1/1/2024 0.74 2.84 0.49
2/1/2024 0.86 2.23 0.43
3/1/2024 1.35 2.80 0.48
4/1/2024 1.04 4.37 0.45
5/1/2024 0.89 2.01 0.50
6/1/2024 1.49 1.93 0.57
7/1/2024 1.72 4.41 0.60
8/1/2024 2.29 3.24 0.71
9/1/2024 2.00 1.11 0.61
10/1/2024 0.83 2.30 0.57
11/1/2024 0.73 2.34 0.66
12/1/2024 1.97 2.23 0.69
1/1/2025 0.59 2.58 0.54
2/1/2025 1.70 5.01 0.61
3/1/2025 1.57 5.26 0.64
4/1/2025 1.81 5.35 0.85
5/1/2025 4.64 4.13 1.21
6/1/2025 4.95 5.76 1.00
7/1/2025 3.86 4.63 4.79

Note: Imports and exports related to artificial intelligence (AI) are measured as the sum of Harmonized System (HS) codes 8471.50, 8471.80, and 8473.30, which include, among other products, servers, graphical processing units, and related parts associated with AI hardware.  These data may underestimate AI-related trade flows because they may omit some AI-related products included in other HS categories.  Because these HS codes capture non-AI products as well, however, they may also overestimate the trade flows of AI-specific products.  Data are monthly and extend through July 2025.  

Source: United States Census Bureau, Taiwan National Statistics.

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Last Update: February 13, 2026