Accessible Version
The Unusual Composition of Demand during the Pandemic, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Level of PCE Goods, PCE Services and Residential Investment
Scaled to Quarter of NBER Peak
| Quarter of NBER Peak * | PCE Goods | PCE Services | Residential Investment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarters into recession/recovery | Scaled level | Quarters into recession/recovery | Scaled level | Quarters into recession/recovery | Scaled level | |
| 1948 Q4 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1949 Q1 | 1 | 100.20 | 1 | 100.63 | 1 | 92.63 |
| 1949 Q2 | 2 | 101.18 | 2 | 101.14 | 2 | 91.08 |
| 1949 Q3 | 3 | 100.80 | 3 | 100.93 | 3 | 98.86 |
| 1949 Q4 | 4 | 102.68 | 4 | 101.22 | 4 | 110.92 |
| 1950 Q1 | 5 | 104.24 | 5 | 102.48 | 5 | 123.29 |
| 1953 Q2 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1953 Q3 | 1 | 99.11 | 1 | 100.60 | 1 | 96.26 |
| 1953 Q4 | 2 | 98.97 | 2 | 99.84 | 2 | 95.47 |
| 1954 Q1 | 3 | 99.54 | 3 | 100.77 | 3 | 96.52 |
| 1954 Q2 | 4 | 99.75 | 4 | 102.51 | 4 | 102.81 |
| 1954 Q3 | 5 | 100.93 | 5 | 104.28 | 5 | 109.07 |
| 1957 Q3 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1957 Q4 | 1 | 99.29 | 1 | 101.08 | 1 | 99.87 |
| 1958 Q1 | 2 | 97.83 | 2 | 100.94 | 2 | 95.94 |
| 1958 Q2 | 3 | 98.49 | 3 | 102.41 | 3 | 96.29 |
| 1958 Q3 | 4 | 100.32 | 4 | 103.83 | 4 | 103.23 |
| 1960 Q2 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1960 Q3 | 1 | 99.39 | 1 | 99.88 | 1 | 97.01 |
| 1960 Q4 | 2 | 99.20 | 2 | 100.84 | 2 | 96.91 |
| 1961 Q1 | 3 | 99.20 | 3 | 101.84 | 3 | 97.31 |
| 1961 Q2 | 4 | 100.60 | 4 | 103.33 | 4 | 97.69 |
| 1961 Q3 | - | - | - | - | 5 | 103.02 |
| 1969 Q4 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1970 Q1 | 1 | 100.55 | 1 | 101.08 | 1 | 100.06 |
| 1970 Q2 | 2 | 100.64 | 2 | 101.70 | 2 | 93.93 |
| 1970 Q3 | 3 | 101.32 | 3 | 102.86 | 3 | 99.35 |
| 1970 Q4 | 4 | 101.51 | 4 | 103.38 | 4 | 109.36 |
| 1971 Q1 | 5 | 103.15 | 5 | 104.10 | 5 | 115.04 |
| 1973 Q4 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1974 Q1 | 1 | 98.51 | 1 | 99.82 | 1 | 93.50 |
| 1974 Q2 | 2 | 98.03 | 2 | 100.82 | 2 | 89.72 |
| 1974 Q3 | 3 | 98.29 | 3 | 101.35 | 3 | 86.72 |
| 1974 Q4 | 4 | 95.42 | 4 | 102.39 | 4 | 75.43 |
| 1975 Q1 | 5 | 95.85 | 5 | 103.34 | 5 | 71.17 |
| 1975 Q2 | 6 | 97.94 | 6 | 104.58 | 6 | 73.18 |
| 1975 Q3 | 7 | 99.62 | - | - | 7 | 78.00 |
| 1975 Q4 | 8 | 99.84 | - | - | 8 | 81.34 |
| 1976 Q1 | 9 | 102.30 | - | - | 9 | 89.05 |
| 1976 Q2 | - | - | - | - | 10 | 91.25 |
| 1976 Q3 | - | - | - | - | 11 | 89.82 |
| 1976 Q4 | - | - | - | - | 12 | 100.70 |
| 1980 Q1 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1980 Q2 | 1 | 97.19 | 1 | 99.37 | 1 | 81.46 |
| 1980 Q3 | 2 | 97.59 | 2 | 100.52 | 2 | 83.96 |
| 1980 Q4 | 3 | 98.36 | 3 | 102.05 | 3 | 91.79 |
| 1981 Q1 | 4 | 99.52 | - | - | 4 | 89.55 |
| 1981 Q2 | 5 | 99.30 | - | - | 5 | 86.69 |
| 1981 Q3 * | 6 | 99.93 | 0 | 100.00 | 6 | 79.96 |
| 1981 Q3 | 0 | 100.00 | - | - | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1981 Q4 | 1 | 99.24 | 1 | 100.21 | 1 | 89.56 |
| 1982 Q1 | 2 | 99.84 | 2 | 100.74 | 2 | 84.39 |
| 1982 Q2 | 3 | 99.75 | 3 | 101.30 | 3 | 81.67 |
| 1982 Q3 | 4 | 100.23 | 4 | 102.09 | 4 | 81.59 |
| 1982 Q4 | 5 | 101.78 | 5 | 103.66 | 5 | 88.05 |
| 1983 Q1 | 6 | 102.21 | 6 | 105.05 | 6 | 103.19 |
| 1990 Q3 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 1990 Q4 | 1 | 98.66 | 1 | 99.76 | 1 | 94.23 |
| 1991 Q1 | 2 | 98.19 | 2 | 99.69 | 2 | 89.27 |
| 1991 Q2 | 3 | 98.75 | 3 | 100.68 | 3 | 92.01 |
| 1991 Q3 | 4 | 99.16 | - | - | 4 | 95.12 |
| 1991 Q4 | 5 | 98.17 | - | - | 5 | 97.00 |
| 1992 Q1 | 6 | 100.07 | - | - | 6 | 102.55 |
| 2001 Q1 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2001 Q2 | 1 | 100.32 | 1 | 100.22 | 1 | 101.55 |
| 2001 Q3 | 2 | 100.97 | 2 | 100.35 | 2 | 102.18 |
| 2001 Q4 | 3 | 103.80 | 3 | 100.70 | 3 | 101.53 |
| 2002 Q1 | 4 | 103.80 | 4 | 101.28 | 4 | 104.86 |
| 2007 Q4 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2008 Q1 | 1 | 98.47 | 1 | 100.47 | 1 | 92.04 |
| 2008 Q2 | 2 | 98.36 | 2 | 100.79 | 2 | 87.88 |
| 2008 Q3 | 3 | 96.36 | 3 | 100.74 | 3 | 83.42 |
| 2008 Q4 | 4 | 93.61 | 4 | 100.87 | 4 | 75.30 |
| 2009 Q1 | 5 | 93.63 | 5 | 100.52 | 5 | 68.00 |
| 2009 Q2 | 6 | 93.03 | 6 | 100.22 | 6 | 63.82 |
| 2009 Q3 | 7 | 94.53 | 7 | 100.40 | 7 | 66.78 |
| 2009 Q4 | 8 | 94.09 | - | - | 8 | 66.64 |
| 2010 Q1 | 9 | 94.78 | - | - | 9 | 64.49 |
| 2010 Q2 | 10 | 96.01 | - | - | 10 | 67.85 |
| 2010 Q3 | 11 | 96.70 | - | - | 11 | 61.83 |
| 2010 Q4 | 12 | 98.01 | - | - | 12 | 62.86 |
| 2011 Q1 | 13 | 98.50 | - | - | 13 | 62.64 |
| 2011 Q2 | 14 | 98.14 | - | - | 14 | 63.35 |
| 2011 Q3 | 15 | 98.17 | - | - | 15 | 64.49 |
| 2011 Q4 | 16 | 98.86 | - | - | 16 | 66.17 |
| 2012 Q1 | 17 | 100.11 | - | - | 17 | 70.17 |
| 2012 Q2 | - | - | - | - | 18 | 70.77 |
| 2012 Q3 | - | - | - | - | 19 | 72.59 |
| 2012 Q4 | - | - | - | - | 20 | 76.37 |
| 2013 Q1 | - | - | - | - | 21 | 79.14 |
| 2013 Q2 | - | - | - | - | 22 | 81.67 |
| 2013 Q3 | - | - | - | - | 23 | 83.13 |
| 2013 Q4 | - | - | - | - | 24 | 81.82 |
| 2014 Q1 | - | - | - | - | 25 | 81.25 |
| 2014 Q2 | - | - | - | - | 26 | 83.85 |
| 2014 Q3 | - | - | - | - | 27 | 85.08 |
| 2014 Q4 | - | - | - | - | 28 | 88.10 |
| 2015 Q1 | - | - | - | - | 29 | 89.83 |
| 2015 Q2 | - | - | - | - | 30 | 92.08 |
| 2015 Q3 | - | - | - | - | 31 | 94.57 |
| 2015 Q4 | - | - | - | - | 32 | 96.23 |
| 2016 Q1 | - | - | - | - | 33 | 99.48 |
| 2016 Q2 | - | - | - | - | 34 | 99.07 |
| 2016 Q3 | - | - | - | - | 35 | 98.54 |
| 2016 Q4 | - | - | - | - | 36 | 100.26 |
| 2019 Q4 * | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2020 Q1 | 1 | 99.85 | 1 | 97.44 | 1 | 104.44 |
| 2020 Q2 | 2 | 97.16 | 2 | 85.11 | 2 | 93.57 |
| 2020 Q3 | 3 | 107.31 | 3 | 92.25 | 3 | 105.73 |
* Each line extends until the quarter following the NBER trough in which a series exceeds its pre-recession level or the next recession happens; or until 2020 Q3, in the case of the latest recession.
Note: Recessions are defined according to NBER. Horizontal line marked at 100 scaled level.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 2. Median Square Feet per Pending Sale and Composition of New Home Purchase Loans and Housing-Related Spending
Figure 2: Median Square Feet per Pending Sale and Composition of New Home Purchase Loans (Left Panel)
Percent change, YoY (left axis) Percentage point change, Yoy (right axis)
| Date | Median square feet per pending sale (left axis) | Share of new loans for second homes (right axis) | Share of new loans in vacation areas (right axis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016m1 | NA | -0.29 | -0.32 |
| 2016m2 | NA | -0.43 | -0.34 |
| 2016m3 | NA | -0.82 | -0.47 |
| 2016m4 | NA | -0.25 | -0.12 |
| 2016m5 | NA | -0.23 | -0.27 |
| 2016m6 | NA | -0.24 | -0.15 |
| 2016m7 | NA | -0.21 | 0.02 |
| 2016m8 | NA | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| 2016m9 | NA | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| 2016m10 | NA | -0.60 | -0.51 |
| 2016m11 | NA | -0.35 | -0.36 |
| 2016m12 | NA | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| 2017m1 | NA | 0.17 | 0.57 |
| 2017m2 | NA | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| 2017m3 | NA | 0.75 | 0.34 |
| 2017m4 | NA | 0.54 | 0.23 |
| 2017m5 | NA | 0.33 | 0.03 |
| 2017m6 | NA | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| 2017m7 | NA | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| 2017m8 | NA | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| 2017m9 | NA | 0.35 | -0.05 |
| 2017m10 | NA | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| 2017m11 | NA | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| 2017m12 | NA | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| 2018m1 | 1.2 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| 2018m2 | 0.6 | 0.17 | -0.04 |
| 2018m3 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| 2018m4 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| 2018m5 | 0.3 | -0.03 | 0.02 |
| 2018m6 | 0.5 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| 2018m7 | 0.5 | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| 2018m8 | 0.3 | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| 2018m9 | -0.3 | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| 2018m10 | 0.0 | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| 2018m11 | 0.4 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| 2018m12 | -0.1 | -0.17 | -0.18 |
| 2019m1 | -0.1 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2019m2 | 0.2 | -0.10 | 0.06 |
| 2019m3 | 1.0 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| 2019m4 | 1.2 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| 2019m5 | 1.6 | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| 2019m6 | 1.7 | 0.07 | -0.11 |
| 2019m7 | 1.9 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| 2019m8 | 2.1 | -0.13 | 0.18 |
| 2019m9 | 2.2 | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| 2019m10 | 1.9 | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| 2019m11 | 2.0 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| 2019m12 | 2.2 | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| 2020m1 | 1.8 | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| 2020m2 | 1.8 | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| 2020m3 | 2.3 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| 2020m4 | 1.6 | -0.60 | -0.18 |
| 2020m5 | 2.0 | -0.50 | 0.02 |
| 2020m6 | 3.0 | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| 2020m7 | 3.8 | 1.85 | 2.29 |
| 2020m8 | 4.3 | 2.04 | 2.33 |
| 2020m9 | 4.6 | 2.03 | 2.16 |
| 2020m10 | 4.7 | 1.59 | 2.17 |
| 2020m11 | 3.3 | 2.33 | 2.41 |
Note: New home purchase loans include single−family residences and condos. Vacation areas are defined as those where the vacation share of housing in the property's zipcode was larger than 10 percent in the 2010 Decennial Census. YoY is year−over−year change.
Source: For new home purchase loans, Black Knight McDash data and authors'calculations; for median square feet, Redfin, a national real estate broker
Figure 2: Housing-Related Spending (Right Panel)
Percent change, YoY
| Date | Building material and supplies stores | Furniture stores |
|---|---|---|
| 1-Jan-2020 | 5.60 | -0.68 |
| 2-Jan-2020 | 6.50 | 0.06 |
| 3-Jan-2020 | 8.06 | 1.16 |
| 4-Jan-2020 | 11.34 | 6.02 |
| 5-Jan-2020 | 11.41 | 5.50 |
| 6-Jan-2020 | 8.62 | 3.54 |
| 7-Jan-2020 | 4.74 | 1.80 |
| 8-Jan-2020 | 3.88 | 2.24 |
| 9-Jan-2020 | 3.88 | 1.22 |
| 10-Jan-2020 | 5.21 | 0.91 |
| 11-Jan-2020 | 4.74 | -0.08 |
| 12-Jan-2020 | 5.30 | 0.99 |
| 13-Jan-2020 | 4.96 | 2.03 |
| 14-Jan-2020 | 4.90 | 2.95 |
| 15-Jan-2020 | 5.98 | 3.59 |
| 16-Jan-2020 | 5.53 | 4.17 |
| 17-Jan-2020 | 4.71 | 4.50 |
| 18-Jan-2020 | 2.83 | 2.86 |
| 19-Jan-2020 | 1.85 | 3.63 |
| 20-Jan-2020 | -0.01 | 4.56 |
| 21-Jan-2020 | 0.26 | 1.86 |
| 22-Jan-2020 | -0.44 | 1.90 |
| 23-Jan-2020 | -0.48 | 2.31 |
| 24-Jan-2020 | -0.03 | 3.37 |
| 25-Jan-2020 | 2.12 | 5.73 |
| 26-Jan-2020 | 1.74 | 4.35 |
| 27-Jan-2020 | 1.85 | 2.07 |
| 28-Jan-2020 | 1.29 | 5.09 |
| 29-Jan-2020 | 0.97 | 6.04 |
| 30-Jan-2020 | -0.20 | 4.56 |
| 31-Jan-2020 | -4.44 | 0.09 |
| 1-Feb-2020 | -7.62 | -2.01 |
| 2-Feb-2020 | -11.71 | -8.35 |
| 3-Feb-2020 | -10.19 | -7.05 |
| 4-Feb-2020 | -9.10 | -6.64 |
| 5-Feb-2020 | -10.65 | -7.72 |
| 6-Feb-2020 | -9.81 | -6.85 |
| 7-Feb-2020 | -7.15 | -3.03 |
| 8-Feb-2020 | -4.11 | 0.13 |
| 9-Feb-2020 | 1.65 | 6.14 |
| 10-Feb-2020 | 1.17 | 3.55 |
| 11-Feb-2020 | 1.94 | 4.02 |
| 12-Feb-2020 | 4.64 | 5.64 |
| 13-Feb-2020 | 5.07 | 5.66 |
| 14-Feb-2020 | 3.57 | 4.01 |
| 15-Feb-2020 | 4.72 | 5.33 |
| 16-Feb-2020 | 4.42 | 5.17 |
| 17-Feb-2020 | 4.38 | 10.54 |
| 18-Feb-2020 | 2.80 | 2.64 |
| 19-Feb-2020 | 2.74 | 1.53 |
| 20-Feb-2020 | 2.09 | 1.45 |
| 21-Feb-2020 | 2.48 | 0.16 |
| 22-Feb-2020 | 2.36 | -3.65 |
| 23-Feb-2020 | 2.72 | -4.49 |
| 24-Feb-2020 | 3.91 | -8.49 |
| 25-Feb-2020 | 3.14 | -3.09 |
| 26-Feb-2020 | 2.84 | -0.36 |
| 27-Feb-2020 | 4.10 | -0.93 |
| 28-Feb-2020 | 4.60 | -0.92 |
| 29-Feb-2020 | 6.64 | 3.86 |
| 1-Mar-2020 | 7.15 | 3.06 |
| 2-Mar-2020 | 7.55 | 3.88 |
| 3-Mar-2020 | 9.82 | 4.08 |
| 4-Mar-2020 | 10.78 | 1.62 |
| 5-Mar-2020 | 12.18 | 2.23 |
| 6-Mar-2020 | 15.10 | 4.88 |
| 7-Mar-2020 | 13.83 | 2.82 |
| 8-Mar-2020 | 12.47 | 3.09 |
| 9-Mar-2020 | 4.68 | -5.04 |
| 10-Mar-2020 | 4.64 | -5.99 |
| 11-Mar-2020 | 4.48 | -6.41 |
| 12-Mar-2020 | 4.12 | -7.70 |
| 13-Mar-2020 | 1.94 | -10.57 |
| 14-Mar-2020 | 2.74 | -13.72 |
| 15-Mar-2020 | 2.85 | -14.76 |
| 16-Mar-2020 | 11.45 | -9.90 |
| 17-Mar-2020 | 11.25 | -11.08 |
| 18-Mar-2020 | 11.25 | -13.50 |
| 19-Mar-2020 | 10.29 | -15.01 |
| 20-Mar-2020 | 12.31 | -16.38 |
| 21-Mar-2020 | 9.67 | -24.55 |
| 22-Mar-2020 | 7.91 | -30.06 |
| 23-Mar-2020 | 5.40 | -34.88 |
| 24-Mar-2020 | 2.09 | -39.76 |
| 25-Mar-2020 | -0.73 | -44.58 |
| 26-Mar-2020 | -2.47 | -49.47 |
| 27-Mar-2020 | -4.21 | -54.37 |
| 28-Mar-2020 | -6.01 | -56.76 |
| 29-Mar-2020 | -7.44 | -57.17 |
| 30-Mar-2020 | -7.00 | -58.09 |
| 31-Mar-2020 | -4.30 | -58.19 |
| 1-Apr-2020 | -2.55 | -57.91 |
| 2-Apr-2020 | -2.74 | -57.63 |
| 3-Apr-2020 | -1.79 | -56.70 |
| 4-Apr-2020 | 1.82 | -56.29 |
| 5-Apr-2020 | 2.51 | -55.52 |
| 6-Apr-2020 | 2.77 | -54.78 |
| 7-Apr-2020 | 1.99 | -54.70 |
| 8-Apr-2020 | 1.15 | -55.21 |
| 9-Apr-2020 | 3.49 | -54.80 |
| 10-Apr-2020 | 4.75 | -55.28 |
| 11-Apr-2020 | 4.52 | -55.26 |
| 12-Apr-2020 | -0.76 | -55.99 |
| 13-Apr-2020 | -1.81 | -55.85 |
| 14-Apr-2020 | -2.98 | -55.49 |
| 15-Apr-2020 | -0.18 | -52.21 |
| 16-Apr-2020 | 1.00 | -50.15 |
| 17-Apr-2020 | 2.40 | -48.22 |
| 18-Apr-2020 | 7.97 | -45.38 |
| 19-Apr-2020 | 14.33 | -43.31 |
| 20-Apr-2020 | 27.24 | -35.80 |
| 21-Apr-2020 | 29.97 | -34.40 |
| 22-Apr-2020 | 28.72 | -35.94 |
| 23-Apr-2020 | 27.31 | -36.23 |
| 24-Apr-2020 | 25.66 | -35.77 |
| 25-Apr-2020 | 22.43 | -35.92 |
| 26-Apr-2020 | 23.09 | -36.10 |
| 27-Apr-2020 | 14.62 | -40.89 |
| 28-Apr-2020 | 16.29 | -40.11 |
| 29-Apr-2020 | 16.35 | -38.88 |
| 30-Apr-2020 | 21.15 | -36.85 |
| 1-May-2020 | 26.54 | -33.33 |
| 2-May-2020 | 31.21 | -29.88 |
| 3-May-2020 | 32.33 | -27.89 |
| 4-May-2020 | 39.75 | -23.10 |
| 5-May-2020 | 39.48 | -20.00 |
| 6-May-2020 | 41.84 | -17.06 |
| 7-May-2020 | 40.66 | -15.82 |
| 8-May-2020 | 32.57 | -16.98 |
| 9-May-2020 | 28.37 | -15.03 |
| 10-May-2020 | 24.62 | -15.26 |
| 11-May-2020 | 19.88 | -15.39 |
| 12-May-2020 | 19.85 | -14.38 |
| 13-May-2020 | 20.06 | -13.00 |
| 14-May-2020 | 18.35 | -12.09 |
| 15-May-2020 | 23.83 | -9.50 |
| 16-May-2020 | 21.67 | -12.26 |
| 17-May-2020 | 24.47 | -8.40 |
| 18-May-2020 | 24.64 | -7.90 |
| 19-May-2020 | 27.93 | -5.28 |
| 20-May-2020 | 29.88 | -3.55 |
| 21-May-2020 | 31.14 | -1.15 |
| 22-May-2020 | 32.58 | 2.39 |
| 23-May-2020 | 33.55 | 8.47 |
| 24-May-2020 | 31.98 | 6.82 |
| 25-May-2020 | 21.27 | 5.75 |
| 26-May-2020 | 29.31 | 2.46 |
| 27-May-2020 | 27.33 | 1.39 |
| 28-May-2020 | 26.21 | 1.14 |
| 29-May-2020 | 22.88 | -1.23 |
| 30-May-2020 | 19.99 | 0.58 |
| 31-May-2020 | 26.59 | 3.21 |
| 1-Jun-2020 | 38.17 | 4.98 |
| 2-Jun-2020 | 25.66 | 7.65 |
| 3-Jun-2020 | 25.34 | 9.14 |
| 4-Jun-2020 | 26.07 | 10.10 |
| 5-Jun-2020 | 29.66 | 13.74 |
| 6-Jun-2020 | 32.27 | 15.98 |
| 7-Jun-2020 | 25.99 | 16.84 |
| 8-Jun-2020 | 25.92 | 18.39 |
| 9-Jun-2020 | 23.22 | 20.13 |
| 10-Jun-2020 | 23.54 | 21.25 |
| 11-Jun-2020 | 20.39 | 20.28 |
| 12-Jun-2020 | 16.62 | 18.14 |
| 13-Jun-2020 | 17.34 | 17.38 |
| 14-Jun-2020 | 18.18 | 18.34 |
| 15-Jun-2020 | 20.11 | 21.32 |
| 16-Jun-2020 | 24.32 | 22.19 |
| 17-Jun-2020 | 24.99 | 22.68 |
| 18-Jun-2020 | 26.85 | 22.95 |
| 19-Jun-2020 | 28.99 | 23.86 |
| 20-Jun-2020 | 29.89 | 23.91 |
| 21-Jun-2020 | 29.23 | 20.67 |
| 22-Jun-2020 | 27.02 | 17.69 |
| 23-Jun-2020 | 24.75 | 16.34 |
| 24-Jun-2020 | 22.38 | 14.86 |
| 25-Jun-2020 | 22.16 | 15.83 |
| 26-Jun-2020 | 21.90 | 17.12 |
| 27-Jun-2020 | 16.88 | 16.90 |
| 28-Jun-2020 | 16.70 | 18.74 |
| 29-Jun-2020 | 17.26 | 18.82 |
| 30-Jun-2020 | 17.02 | 16.93 |
| 1-Jul-2020 | 17.33 | 16.78 |
| 2-Jul-2020 | 17.50 | 17.32 |
| 3-Jul-2020 | 28.02 | 24.98 |
| 4-Jul-2020 | 25.53 | 16.76 |
| 5-Jul-2020 | 27.52 | 17.25 |
| 6-Jul-2020 | 28.03 | 18.70 |
| 7-Jul-2020 | 27.69 | 20.66 |
| 8-Jul-2020 | 26.80 | 21.60 |
| 9-Jul-2020 | 25.51 | 21.13 |
| 10-Jul-2020 | 12.59 | 11.38 |
| 11-Jul-2020 | 12.72 | 16.60 |
| 12-Jul-2020 | 12.54 | 16.46 |
| 13-Jul-2020 | 6.74 | 11.68 |
| 14-Jul-2020 | 6.31 | 10.36 |
| 15-Jul-2020 | 7.62 | 10.78 |
| 16-Jul-2020 | 9.21 | 11.39 |
| 17-Jul-2020 | 10.73 | 13.04 |
| 18-Jul-2020 | 15.43 | 15.68 |
| 19-Jul-2020 | 15.15 | 15.93 |
| 20-Jul-2020 | 14.92 | 16.68 |
| 21-Jul-2020 | 15.05 | 18.00 |
| 22-Jul-2020 | 14.56 | 18.58 |
| 23-Jul-2020 | 14.22 | 18.49 |
| 24-Jul-2020 | 12.39 | 17.45 |
| 25-Jul-2020 | 13.73 | 18.47 |
| 26-Jul-2020 | 14.47 | 18.52 |
| 27-Jul-2020 | 19.94 | 22.73 |
| 28-Jul-2020 | 21.73 | 23.36 |
| 29-Jul-2020 | 23.49 | 23.71 |
| 30-Jul-2020 | 21.04 | 22.24 |
| 31-Jul-2020 | 26.67 | 25.04 |
| 1-Aug-2020 | 26.91 | 25.89 |
| 2-Aug-2020 | 26.75 | 25.83 |
| 3-Aug-2020 | 26.74 | 25.29 |
| 4-Aug-2020 | 28.56 | 27.04 |
| 5-Aug-2020 | 27.62 | 26.58 |
| 6-Aug-2020 | 29.58 | 27.49 |
| 7-Aug-2020 | 24.74 | 25.56 |
| 8-Aug-2020 | 23.64 | 24.80 |
| 9-Aug-2020 | 23.80 | 24.83 |
| 10-Aug-2020 | 26.19 | 23.58 |
| 11-Aug-2020 | 24.69 | 22.60 |
| 12-Aug-2020 | 23.95 | 21.34 |
| 13-Aug-2020 | 24.31 | 21.95 |
| 14-Aug-2020 | 23.81 | 21.00 |
| 15-Aug-2020 | 24.84 | 21.38 |
| 16-Aug-2020 | 23.83 | 19.43 |
| 17-Aug-2020 | 21.57 | 18.01 |
| 18-Aug-2020 | 21.14 | 16.80 |
| 19-Aug-2020 | 24.19 | 18.88 |
| 20-Aug-2020 | 27.18 | 19.09 |
| 21-Aug-2020 | 31.04 | 21.01 |
| 22-Aug-2020 | 34.35 | 22.85 |
| 23-Aug-2020 | 35.45 | 24.53 |
| 24-Aug-2020 | 35.86 | 25.96 |
| 25-Aug-2020 | 35.83 | 26.06 |
| 26-Aug-2020 | 32.73 | 23.36 |
| 27-Aug-2020 | 31.31 | 23.88 |
| 28-Aug-2020 | 25.23 | 22.31 |
| 29-Aug-2020 | 21.17 | 23.69 |
| 30-Aug-2020 | 20.96 | 24.27 |
| 31-Aug-2020 | 22.27 | 21.42 |
| 1-Sep-2020 | 34.39 | 16.72 |
| 2-Sep-2020 | 31.51 | 15.99 |
| 3-Sep-2020 | 29.45 | 15.52 |
| 4-Sep-2020 | 30.85 | 15.46 |
| 5-Sep-2020 | 32.73 | 15.12 |
| 6-Sep-2020 | 33.37 | 16.76 |
| 7-Sep-2020 | 20.39 | 22.76 |
| 8-Sep-2020 | 10.15 | 30.39 |
| 9-Sep-2020 | 13.02 | 33.97 |
| 10-Sep-2020 | 14.18 | 33.80 |
| 11-Sep-2020 | 13.61 | 33.46 |
| 12-Sep-2020 | 15.13 | 32.16 |
| 13-Sep-2020 | 14.73 | 29.65 |
| 14-Sep-2020 | 26.29 | 26.22 |
| 15-Sep-2020 | 26.15 | 24.29 |
| 16-Sep-2020 | 24.89 | 23.38 |
| 17-Sep-2020 | 25.28 | 23.44 |
| 18-Sep-2020 | 31.72 | 26.10 |
| 19-Sep-2020 | 31.72 | 26.22 |
| 20-Sep-2020 | 32.14 | 26.62 |
| 21-Sep-2020 | 33.63 | 26.46 |
| 22-Sep-2020 | 31.60 | 26.12 |
| 23-Sep-2020 | 31.96 | 25.01 |
| 24-Sep-2020 | 29.86 | 24.20 |
| 25-Sep-2020 | 25.51 | 22.73 |
| 26-Sep-2020 | 22.37 | 20.37 |
| 27-Sep-2020 | 21.78 | 19.03 |
| 28-Sep-2020 | 20.02 | 17.90 |
| 29-Sep-2020 | 18.10 | 16.89 |
| 30-Sep-2020 | 20.59 | 17.78 |
| 1-Oct-2020 | 22.58 | 18.61 |
| 2-Oct-2020 | 22.35 | 18.36 |
| 3-Oct-2020 | 23.46 | 18.37 |
| 4-Oct-2020 | 23.22 | 18.90 |
| 5-Oct-2020 | 23.19 | 20.04 |
| 6-Oct-2020 | 26.73 | 20.68 |
| 7-Oct-2020 | 23.76 | 19.64 |
| 8-Oct-2020 | 22.43 | 19.24 |
| 9-Oct-2020 | 21.49 | 18.56 |
| 10-Oct-2020 | 20.31 | 18.24 |
| 11-Oct-2020 | 20.45 | 17.17 |
| 12-Oct-2020 | 13.78 | 13.41 |
| 13-Oct-2020 | 12.84 | 10.74 |
| 14-Oct-2020 | 13.35 | 11.33 |
| 15-Oct-2020 | 11.56 | 11.21 |
| 16-Oct-2020 | 12.36 | 11.74 |
| 17-Oct-2020 | 12.00 | 12.02 |
| 18-Oct-2020 | 11.73 | 12.72 |
| 19-Oct-2020 | 17.59 | 14.68 |
| 20-Oct-2020 | 17.84 | 16.65 |
| 21-Oct-2020 | 17.58 | 16.15 |
| 22-Oct-2020 | 16.83 | 14.28 |
| 23-Oct-2020 | 16.58 | 13.74 |
| 24-Oct-2020 | 15.99 | 10.94 |
| 25-Oct-2020 | 16.99 | 11.16 |
| 26-Oct-2020 | 16.62 | 11.80 |
| 27-Oct-2020 | 15.77 | 12.58 |
| 28-Oct-2020 | 14.59 | 12.56 |
| 29-Oct-2020 | 16.52 | 13.73 |
| 30-Oct-2020 | 17.20 | 15.14 |
| 31-Oct-2020 | 18.52 | 15.61 |
| 1-Nov-2020 | 17.25 | 13.85 |
| 2-Nov-2020 | 17.02 | 13.02 |
| 3-Nov-2020 | 17.27 | 11.90 |
| 4-Nov-2020 | 16.70 | 10.25 |
| 5-Nov-2020 | 16.81 | 10.05 |
| 6-Nov-2020 | 15.24 | 8.67 |
| 7-Nov-2020 | 14.76 | 10.25 |
| 8-Nov-2020 | 15.30 | 9.20 |
| 9-Nov-2020 | 15.43 | 8.57 |
| 10-Nov-2020 | 16.91 | 6.25 |
| 11-Nov-2020 | 19.61 | 11.26 |
| 12-Nov-2020 | 19.52 | 11.83 |
| 13-Nov-2020 | 20.32 | 12.90 |
| 14-Nov-2020 | 24.00 | 16.25 |
| 15-Nov-2020 | 23.87 | 17.23 |
| 16-Nov-2020 | 23.69 | 17.96 |
| 17-Nov-2020 | 22.97 | 21.30 |
| 18-Nov-2020 | 21.51 | 17.55 |
| 19-Nov-2020 | 21.31 | 17.11 |
| 20-Nov-2020 | 23.08 | 16.51 |
| 21-Nov-2020 | 20.98 | 14.63 |
| 22-Nov-2020 | 21.86 | 14.49 |
| 23-Nov-2020 | 22.50 | 15.45 |
| 24-Nov-2020 | 20.91 | 15.48 |
| 25-Nov-2020 | 20.67 | 14.90 |
| 26-Nov-2020 | 1.85 | 1.09 |
| 27-Nov-2020 | 15.68 | 23.54 |
| 28-Nov-2020 | 16.46 | 10.51 |
| 29-Nov-2020 | 16.99 | 11.60 |
| 30-Nov-2020 | 22.00 | 12.96 |
| 1-Dec-2020 | 23.51 | 11.25 |
| 2-Dec-2020 | 30.81 | 14.53 |
| 3-Dec-2020 | 60.99 | 30.85 |
| 4-Dec-2020 | 35.46 | 8.18 |
| 5-Dec-2020 | 34.92 | 19.46 |
| 6-Dec-2020 | 36.19 | 22.97 |
| 7-Dec-2020 | 30.48 | 22.98 |
| 8-Dec-2020 | 27.78 | 23.34 |
| 9-Dec-2020 | 21.08 | 19.74 |
| 10-Dec-2020 | 20.15 | 18.91 |
| 11-Dec-2020 | 21.35 | 19.05 |
| 12-Dec-2020 | 21.33 | 17.49 |
| 13-Dec-2020 | 20.43 | 14.06 |
| 14-Dec-2020 | 20.14 | 12.44 |
| 15-Dec-2020 | 24.03 | 14.54 |
| 16-Dec-2020 | 24.85 | 14.03 |
| 17-Dec-2020 | 22.16 | 12.15 |
| 18-Dec-2020 | 23.15 | 13.39 |
| 19-Dec-2020 | 20.54 | 12.42 |
| 20-Dec-2020 | 20.32 | 14.36 |
| 21-Dec-2020 | 23.14 | 17.12 |
Note: Year-over-year (YoY) changes are calculated using 7−day moving averages.
Source: Fiserv, Inc
Figure 3. Existing Home Sales by Price Tiers and Credit Score Distribution for New Home Purchase Loans
Figure 3: Existing Home Sales by Price Tiers (Left Panel)
Percent change, YoY
| Date | Less than $250,000 | $250,000 to $500,000 | More than $500,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016m1 | 3.76 | 14.80 | 10.48 |
| 2016m2 | 4.89 | 10.61 | 4.77 |
| 2016m3 | 2.89 | 6.52 | 3.00 |
| 2016m4 | 1.22 | 10.17 | 8.33 |
| 2016m5 | 2.72 | 10.69 | 9.91 |
| 2016m6 | -2.64 | 6.67 | 8.09 |
| 2016m7 | -10.73 | -0.87 | -5.24 |
| 2016m8 | 5.23 | 9.65 | 7.66 |
| 2016m9 | -2.85 | 11.67 | 11.47 |
| 2016m10 | -2.49 | 4.42 | 2.68 |
| 2016m11 | 13.04 | 28.96 | 24.19 |
| 2016m12 | -2.54 | 4.44 | 2.62 |
| 2017m1 | -0.31 | 13.97 | 16.05 |
| 2017m2 | -6.00 | 9.03 | 14.09 |
| 2017m3 | 0.12 | 17.88 | 24.34 |
| 2017m4 | -10.83 | 1.91 | 5.73 |
| 2017m5 | -0.70 | 12.31 | 16.85 |
| 2017m6 | -3.18 | 9.63 | 11.01 |
| 2017m7 | -4.35 | 4.44 | 6.08 |
| 2017m8 | -8.02 | 6.36 | 12.35 |
| 2017m9 | -7.38 | -2.60 | -0.32 |
| 2017m10 | -3.22 | 10.01 | 12.78 |
| 2017m11 | -4.12 | 7.40 | 12.81 |
| 2017m12 | -7.01 | 3.67 | 3.46 |
| 2018m1 | -5.75 | 2.64 | 4.52 |
| 2018m2 | -5.50 | 10.19 | 11.07 |
| 2018m3 | -10.82 | 3.01 | 2.76 |
| 2018m4 | -2.70 | 9.76 | 8.33 |
| 2018m5 | -9.55 | 2.68 | 3.02 |
| 2018m6 | -13.38 | -1.38 | 13.82 |
| 2018m7 | -8.49 | 6.96 | 26.78 |
| 2018m8 | -7.31 | 4.59 | 19.84 |
| 2018m9 | -17.81 | -2.46 | 11.32 |
| 2018m10 | -8.59 | 1.20 | 11.29 |
| 2018m11 | -10.40 | -0.39 | 8.07 |
| 2018m12 | -16.76 | -8.07 | -0.82 |
| 2019m1 | -15.17 | -3.93 | 4.53 |
| 2019m2 | -7.10 | 1.24 | 6.95 |
| 2019m3 | -12.42 | -4.74 | 1.41 |
| 2019m4 | -8.49 | 3.55 | 15.38 |
| 2019m5 | -6.82 | 6.52 | 15.01 |
| 2019m6 | -12.41 | -1.01 | -7.81 |
| 2019m7 | -1.20 | 9.73 | 1.21 |
| 2019m8 | -5.80 | 4.21 | -0.76 |
| 2019m9 | 1.86 | 13.63 | 6.94 |
| 2019m10 | -2.50 | 10.52 | 7.40 |
| 2019m11 | -5.45 | 5.12 | 2.37 |
| 2019m12 | 5.88 | 23.70 | 25.73 |
| 2020m1 | 4.23 | 18.47 | 18.29 |
| 2020m2 | -0.95 | 16.04 | 18.67 |
| 2020m3 | -5.34 | 13.10 | 12.41 |
| 2020m4 | -22.85 | -11.76 | -19.49 |
| 2020m5 | -31.03 | -28.52 | -38.65 |
| 2020m6 | -7.03 | 0.69 | -6.98 |
| 2020m7 | -1.21 | 17.63 | 24.14 |
| 2020m8 | -8.94 | 12.87 | 25.07 |
| 2020m9 | 1.52 | 34.60 | 68.93 |
| 2020m10 | -2.18 | 37.00 | 69.68 |
| 2020m11 | -4.43 | 34.98 | 67.51 |
Source: National Association of Realtors.
Figure 3: Credit Score Distribution for New Home Purchase Loans (Right Panel)
FICO Score
| Date | 10th percentile | 25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016m1 | 650 | 683 | 731 | 777 | 798 |
| 2016m2 | 649 | 681 | 729 | 776 | 797 |
| 2016m3 | 648 | 681 | 729 | 776 | 797 |
| 2016m4 | 649 | 682 | 731 | 777 | 798 |
| 2016m5 | 650 | 685 | 734 | 779 | 799 |
| 2016m6 | 651 | 687 | 738 | 781 | 800 |
| 2016m7 | 652 | 686 | 737 | 780 | 799 |
| 2016m8 | 652 | 687 | 737 | 780 | 799 |
| 2016m9 | 651 | 686 | 736 | 779 | 799 |
| 2016m10 | 651 | 686 | 737 | 780 | 799 |
| 2016m11 | 651 | 687 | 737 | 780 | 799 |
| 2016m12 | 651 | 686 | 736 | 779 | 799 |
| 2017m1 | 650 | 685 | 734 | 778 | 798 |
| 2017m2 | 650 | 686 | 735 | 778 | 798 |
| 2017m3 | 652 | 688 | 738 | 779 | 799 |
| 2017m4 | 652 | 689 | 739 | 780 | 800 |
| 2017m5 | 652 | 689 | 740 | 781 | 800 |
| 2017m6 | 653 | 691 | 742 | 782 | 800 |
| 2017m7 | 652 | 689 | 739 | 780 | 799 |
| 2017m8 | 651 | 690 | 741 | 781 | 800 |
| 2017m9 | 649 | 687 | 739 | 780 | 799 |
| 2017m10 | 648 | 687 | 739 | 780 | 800 |
| 2017m11 | 650 | 689 | 740 | 781 | 800 |
| 2017m12 | 649 | 687 | 740 | 780 | 799 |
| 2018m1 | 648 | 687 | 739 | 780 | 799 |
| 2018m2 | 649 | 688 | 739 | 779 | 798 |
| 2018m3 | 647 | 686 | 738 | 779 | 799 |
| 2018m4 | 648 | 687 | 739 | 780 | 799 |
| 2018m5 | 648 | 688 | 740 | 781 | 800 |
| 2018m6 | 650 | 690 | 742 | 781 | 800 |
| 2018m7 | 650 | 690 | 741 | 781 | 800 |
| 2018m8 | 648 | 689 | 742 | 781 | 800 |
| 2018m9 | 647 | 687 | 739 | 780 | 799 |
| 2018m10 | 646 | 685 | 738 | 780 | 799 |
| 2018m11 | 646 | 685 | 738 | 780 | 799 |
| 2018m12 | 645 | 685 | 738 | 780 | 799 |
| 2019m1 | 646 | 687 | 740 | 780 | 799 |
| 2019m2 | 647 | 688 | 740 | 780 | 799 |
| 2019m3 | 645 | 686 | 740 | 780 | 799 |
| 2019m4 | 646 | 687 | 741 | 781 | 800 |
| 2019m5 | 647 | 689 | 742 | 782 | 800 |
| 2019m6 | 648 | 690 | 743 | 782 | 800 |
| 2019m7 | 649 | 691 | 744 | 782 | 800 |
| 2019m8 | 650 | 691 | 744 | 782 | 800 |
| 2019m9 | 651 | 692 | 744 | 782 | 800 |
| 2019m10 | 651 | 694 | 746 | 783 | 801 |
| 2019m11 | 653.5 | 697 | 747 | 784 | 801 |
| 2019m12 | 652 | 696 | 748 | 784 | 801 |
| 2020m1 | 651 | 694 | 746 | 783 | 800 |
| 2020m2 | 652 | 696 | 747 | 783 | 800 |
| 2020m3 | 653 | 697 | 749 | 784 | 801 |
| 2020m4 | 651 | 692 | 745 | 783 | 801 |
| 2020m5 | 657 | 695 | 746 | 783 | 801 |
| 2020m6 | 661 | 699 | 749 | 785 | 802 |
| 2020m7 | 662 | 701 | 751 | 787 | 803 |
| 2020m8 | 663 | 703 | 753 | 788 | 803 |
| 2020m9 | 662 | 703 | 753 | 787 | 803 |
| 2020m10 | 663 | 705 | 755 | 788 | 803 |
| 2020m11 | 664 | 708 | 758 | 789 | 803 |
Note: New home purchase loans include single-family residences and condos.
Source: Black Knight McDash data and authors' calculations.
Figure 4. Spending on Services and Spending on Retail Goods
Figure 4: Spending on Services (Left Panel)
Percent change, YoY
| Date | Health-care visits | Airline passengers | Food services spending |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Jan-2020 | NA | 3.36 | 1.42 |
| 2-Jan-2020 | NA | 4.38 | 1.93 |
| 3-Jan-2020 | NA | 4.89 | 3.71 |
| 4-Jan-2020 | NA | 4.74 | 4.77 |
| 5-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.97 | 3.58 |
| 6-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.33 | 2.72 |
| 7-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.02 | 2.53 |
| 8-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.34 | 2.72 |
| 9-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.58 | 2.03 |
| 10-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.19 | 2.25 |
| 11-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.36 | 2.52 |
| 12-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.48 | 2.99 |
| 13-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.57 | 2.90 |
| 14-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.25 | 3.53 |
| 15-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.98 | 3.51 |
| 16-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.12 | 3.32 |
| 17-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.08 | 3.01 |
| 18-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.83 | 2.33 |
| 19-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.43 | 3.22 |
| 20-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.54 | 3.98 |
| 21-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.75 | 1.63 |
| 22-Jan-2020 | NA | 4.95 | 1.88 |
| 23-Jan-2020 | NA | 4.14 | 2.21 |
| 24-Jan-2020 | NA | 4.40 | 3.25 |
| 25-Jan-2020 | NA | 4.82 | 4.61 |
| 26-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.01 | 2.31 |
| 27-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.32 | 0.04 |
| 28-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.23 | 2.39 |
| 29-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.16 | 3.42 |
| 30-Jan-2020 | NA | 6.52 | 3.33 |
| 31-Jan-2020 | NA | 5.74 | 0.24 |
| 1-Feb-2020 | NA | 5.05 | -3.02 |
| 2-Feb-2020 | NA | 3.76 | -8.87 |
| 3-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.89 | -7.03 |
| 4-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.75 | -7.02 |
| 5-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.70 | -8.30 |
| 6-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.88 | -8.15 |
| 7-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.79 | -5.83 |
| 8-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.52 | -2.12 |
| 9-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.43 | 4.17 |
| 10-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.97 | 1.93 |
| 11-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.97 | 2.46 |
| 12-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.88 | 2.96 |
| 13-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.90 | 2.71 |
| 14-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.74 | 1.77 |
| 15-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.97 | 2.48 |
| 16-Feb-2020 | NA | 2.61 | 3.61 |
| 17-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.94 | 3.99 |
| 18-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| 19-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.53 | 0.90 |
| 20-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.89 | 1.02 |
| 21-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.97 | 1.67 |
| 22-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.81 | 0.30 |
| 23-Feb-2020 | NA | 1.01 | -0.49 |
| 24-Feb-2020 | NA | 0.87 | -0.96 |
| 25-Feb-2020 | NA | 0.85 | 1.28 |
| 26-Feb-2020 | NA | 0.60 | 1.74 |
| 27-Feb-2020 | NA | -0.23 | 1.56 |
| 28-Feb-2020 | NA | -1.49 | 1.16 |
| 29-Feb-2020 | NA | -2.96 | 2.58 |
| 1-Mar-2020 | 7.50 | -4.58 | 2.78 |
| 2-Mar-2020 | 6.74 | -6.23 | 0.98 |
| 3-Mar-2020 | 5.33 | -8.48 | 0.62 |
| 4-Mar-2020 | 4.29 | -10.31 | -0.07 |
| 5-Mar-2020 | 3.71 | -12.35 | -0.57 |
| 6-Mar-2020 | 3.22 | -14.13 | -1.00 |
| 7-Mar-2020 | 3.72 | -15.62 | -0.84 |
| 8-Mar-2020 | 4.50 | -16.92 | -3.09 |
| 9-Mar-2020 | 4.11 | -19.52 | -3.42 |
| 10-Mar-2020 | 4.06 | -22.90 | -11.45 |
| 11-Mar-2020 | 1.24 | -25.62 | -12.35 |
| 12-Mar-2020 | -1.24 | -29.50 | -13.92 |
| 13-Mar-2020 | -4.12 | -33.76 | -17.55 |
| 14-Mar-2020 | -8.88 | -37.93 | -23.26 |
| 15-Mar-2020 | -13.75 | -43.87 | -27.45 |
| 16-Mar-2020 | -18.25 | -50.80 | -30.06 |
| 17-Mar-2020 | -24.48 | -57.23 | -30.40 |
| 18-Mar-2020 | -29.66 | -62.69 | -36.71 |
| 19-Mar-2020 | -32.86 | -69.01 | -42.99 |
| 20-Mar-2020 | -35.97 | -74.48 | -51.19 |
| 21-Mar-2020 | -38.77 | -78.47 | -60.22 |
| 22-Mar-2020 | -39.66 | -81.64 | -66.32 |
| 23-Mar-2020 | -41.53 | -84.11 | -69.13 |
| 24-Mar-2020 | -42.12 | -86.46 | -70.23 |
| 25-Mar-2020 | -40.79 | -88.60 | -71.00 |
| 26-Mar-2020 | -41.43 | -90.24 | -71.64 |
| 27-Mar-2020 | -42.51 | -91.27 | -71.84 |
| 28-Mar-2020 | -43.42 | -92.01 | -71.79 |
| 29-Mar-2020 | -45.38 | -92.59 | -71.68 |
| 30-Mar-2020 | -45.86 | -93.05 | -71.44 |
| 31-Mar-2020 | -45.83 | -93.46 | -71.23 |
| 1-Apr-2020 | -46.05 | -93.80 | -70.87 |
| 2-Apr-2020 | -45.56 | -94.15 | -70.63 |
| 3-Apr-2020 | -46.18 | -94.44 | -70.12 |
| 4-Apr-2020 | -46.45 | -94.77 | -69.63 |
| 5-Apr-2020 | -46.76 | -95.06 | -69.23 |
| 6-Apr-2020 | -47.05 | -95.20 | -68.95 |
| 7-Apr-2020 | -47.91 | -95.36 | -68.74 |
| 8-Apr-2020 | -48.21 | -95.53 | -68.57 |
| 9-Apr-2020 | -49.08 | -95.72 | -68.55 |
| 10-Apr-2020 | -49.87 | -95.78 | -68.11 |
| 11-Apr-2020 | -50.06 | -95.87 | -67.46 |
| 12-Apr-2020 | -50.15 | -95.92 | -67.95 |
| 13-Apr-2020 | -49.97 | -96.00 | -67.85 |
| 14-Apr-2020 | -48.73 | -95.98 | -67.29 |
| 15-Apr-2020 | -47.72 | -95.95 | -66.06 |
| 16-Apr-2020 | -46.21 | -95.83 | -64.74 |
| 17-Apr-2020 | -45.15 | -95.88 | -63.84 |
| 18-Apr-2020 | -44.04 | -95.85 | -63.33 |
| 19-Apr-2020 | -43.22 | -95.78 | -61.68 |
| 20-Apr-2020 | -42.33 | -95.66 | -60.35 |
| 21-Apr-2020 | -42.05 | -95.57 | -59.12 |
| 22-Apr-2020 | -41.55 | -95.47 | -59.27 |
| 23-Apr-2020 | -41.33 | -95.37 | -59.30 |
| 24-Apr-2020 | -40.40 | -95.19 | -59.40 |
| 25-Apr-2020 | -39.56 | -95.05 | -58.89 |
| 26-Apr-2020 | -39.20 | -94.92 | -58.63 |
| 27-Apr-2020 | -39.04 | -94.65 | -59.04 |
| 28-Apr-2020 | -38.63 | -94.36 | -59.51 |
| 29-Apr-2020 | -38.35 | -94.23 | -59.22 |
| 30-Apr-2020 | -38.01 | -93.98 | -58.65 |
| 1-May-2020 | -37.61 | -93.73 | -57.54 |
| 2-May-2020 | -36.91 | -93.61 | -56.75 |
| 3-May-2020 | -36.15 | -93.49 | -56.02 |
| 4-May-2020 | -35.42 | -93.30 | -55.16 |
| 5-May-2020 | -35.18 | -93.05 | -53.19 |
| 6-May-2020 | -35.06 | -92.85 | -53.01 |
| 7-May-2020 | -34.93 | -92.62 | -52.75 |
| 8-May-2020 | -34.70 | -92.32 | -55.39 |
| 9-May-2020 | -34.98 | -92.16 | -54.27 |
| 10-May-2020 | -34.87 | -91.98 | -50.40 |
| 11-May-2020 | -34.65 | -91.74 | -51.05 |
| 12-May-2020 | -34.42 | -91.56 | -55.52 |
| 13-May-2020 | -34.50 | -91.47 | -55.27 |
| 14-May-2020 | -33.58 | -91.26 | -54.93 |
| 15-May-2020 | -32.23 | -91.15 | -51.86 |
| 16-May-2020 | -31.10 | -91.05 | -52.97 |
| 17-May-2020 | -29.80 | -90.81 | -59.81 |
| 18-May-2020 | -28.63 | -90.37 | -59.14 |
| 19-May-2020 | -27.25 | -89.88 | -56.46 |
| 20-May-2020 | -26.14 | -89.56 | -56.09 |
| 21-May-2020 | -25.69 | -89.14 | -55.69 |
| 22-May-2020 | -24.70 | -88.51 | -55.25 |
| 23-May-2020 | -24.40 | -88.17 | -54.06 |
| 24-May-2020 | -24.43 | -87.84 | -48.17 |
| 25-May-2020 | -24.44 | -87.68 | -46.72 |
| 26-May-2020 | -24.36 | -87.65 | -47.24 |
| 27-May-2020 | -24.10 | -87.55 | -47.61 |
| 28-May-2020 | -24.16 | -87.40 | -46.66 |
| 29-May-2020 | -24.34 | -87.32 | -45.94 |
| 30-May-2020 | -24.05 | -87.14 | -44.90 |
| 31-May-2020 | -23.36 | -86.96 | -44.49 |
| 1-Jun-2020 | -22.52 | -86.66 | -43.51 |
| 2-Jun-2020 | -21.65 | -86.18 | -41.90 |
| 3-Jun-2020 | -21.35 | -85.77 | -40.68 |
| 4-Jun-2020 | -21.00 | -85.36 | -40.98 |
| 5-Jun-2020 | -20.50 | -85.04 | -40.44 |
| 6-Jun-2020 | -19.78 | -84.79 | -39.57 |
| 7-Jun-2020 | -19.18 | -84.45 | -38.55 |
| 8-Jun-2020 | -17.64 | -83.87 | -39.26 |
| 9-Jun-2020 | -17.72 | -83.39 | -38.74 |
| 10-Jun-2020 | -17.39 | -83.00 | -38.46 |
| 11-Jun-2020 | -16.77 | -82.41 | -37.98 |
| 12-Jun-2020 | -16.77 | -81.88 | -37.85 |
| 13-Jun-2020 | -17.28 | -81.47 | -36.39 |
| 14-Jun-2020 | -17.73 | -81.21 | -35.82 |
| 15-Jun-2020 | -18.92 | -80.86 | -35.78 |
| 16-Jun-2020 | -19.34 | -80.53 | -37.45 |
| 17-Jun-2020 | -19.27 | -80.21 | -36.83 |
| 18-Jun-2020 | -20.58 | -80.04 | -36.54 |
| 19-Jun-2020 | -20.20 | -79.66 | -35.50 |
| 20-Jun-2020 | -18.77 | -79.41 | -35.80 |
| 21-Jun-2020 | -17.21 | -79.17 | -33.42 |
| 22-Jun-2020 | -16.18 | -78.90 | -32.88 |
| 23-Jun-2020 | -14.99 | -78.60 | -30.90 |
| 24-Jun-2020 | -14.56 | -78.38 | -30.88 |
| 25-Jun-2020 | -13.32 | -78.04 | -31.00 |
| 26-Jun-2020 | -13.29 | -77.62 | -31.30 |
| 27-Jun-2020 | -13.52 | -77.26 | -31.21 |
| 28-Jun-2020 | -14.02 | -76.46 | -33.41 |
| 29-Jun-2020 | -14.48 | -74.79 | -33.32 |
| 30-Jun-2020 | -18.83 | -73.44 | -33.08 |
| 1-Jul-2020 | -19.43 | -73.88 | -33.17 |
| 2-Jul-2020 | -20.08 | -73.55 | -32.07 |
| 3-Jul-2020 | -21.52 | -73.24 | -33.27 |
| 4-Jul-2020 | -22.79 | -72.67 | -36.56 |
| 5-Jul-2020 | -25.14 | -72.58 | -36.58 |
| 6-Jul-2020 | -24.03 | -73.70 | -35.56 |
| 7-Jul-2020 | -20.33 | -74.51 | -34.78 |
| 8-Jul-2020 | -20.23 | -73.42 | -34.63 |
| 9-Jul-2020 | -20.68 | -73.11 | -35.46 |
| 10-Jul-2020 | -20.20 | -73.23 | -34.70 |
| 11-Jul-2020 | -20.40 | -73.71 | -35.63 |
| 12-Jul-2020 | -19.80 | -73.96 | -35.94 |
| 13-Jul-2020 | -20.36 | -74.14 | -39.26 |
| 14-Jul-2020 | -20.77 | -74.17 | -39.97 |
| 15-Jul-2020 | -21.45 | -74.34 | -40.14 |
| 16-Jul-2020 | -22.12 | -74.46 | -40.07 |
| 17-Jul-2020 | -23.04 | -74.51 | -39.91 |
| 18-Jul-2020 | -23.55 | -74.63 | -36.17 |
| 19-Jul-2020 | -23.64 | -74.79 | -36.47 |
| 20-Jul-2020 | -23.85 | -74.78 | -35.79 |
| 21-Jul-2020 | -24.31 | -74.69 | -35.42 |
| 22-Jul-2020 | -24.24 | -74.64 | -35.40 |
| 23-Jul-2020 | -24.04 | -74.58 | -35.42 |
| 24-Jul-2020 | -24.42 | -74.52 | -34.93 |
| 25-Jul-2020 | -24.60 | -74.40 | -35.27 |
| 26-Jul-2020 | -25.10 | -74.36 | -35.13 |
| 27-Jul-2020 | -25.19 | -74.34 | -33.72 |
| 28-Jul-2020 | -25.46 | -74.10 | -34.06 |
| 29-Jul-2020 | -25.64 | -73.78 | -33.86 |
| 30-Jul-2020 | -24.72 | -73.49 | -33.76 |
| 31-Jul-2020 | -24.23 | -73.30 | -33.45 |
| 1-Aug-2020 | -24.03 | -73.18 | -32.50 |
| 2-Aug-2020 | -23.73 | -72.89 | -31.95 |
| 3-Aug-2020 | -23.44 | -72.69 | -31.85 |
| 4-Aug-2020 | -23.25 | -72.71 | -31.68 |
| 5-Aug-2020 | -23.24 | -72.74 | -31.48 |
| 6-Aug-2020 | -24.10 | -72.50 | -31.47 |
| 7-Aug-2020 | -23.83 | -72.28 | -31.66 |
| 8-Aug-2020 | -23.42 | -72.06 | -31.28 |
| 9-Aug-2020 | -23.26 | -72.03 | -30.86 |
| 10-Aug-2020 | -23.12 | -71.76 | -30.71 |
| 11-Aug-2020 | -22.58 | -71.48 | -30.36 |
| 12-Aug-2020 | -22.15 | -71.25 | -30.39 |
| 13-Aug-2020 | -21.61 | -70.96 | -30.33 |
| 14-Aug-2020 | -21.23 | -70.91 | -29.85 |
| 15-Aug-2020 | -20.52 | -70.77 | -29.75 |
| 16-Aug-2020 | -19.77 | -70.65 | -29.83 |
| 17-Aug-2020 | -18.62 | -70.47 | -30.10 |
| 18-Aug-2020 | -16.42 | -70.46 | -31.02 |
| 19-Aug-2020 | -14.73 | -70.61 | -32.11 |
| 20-Aug-2020 | -13.59 | -70.58 | -31.89 |
| 21-Aug-2020 | -12.88 | -70.47 | -31.58 |
| 22-Aug-2020 | -12.58 | -70.31 | -31.17 |
| 23-Aug-2020 | -12.33 | -70.38 | -30.80 |
| 24-Aug-2020 | -12.68 | -70.75 | -31.00 |
| 25-Aug-2020 | -14.15 | -71.08 | -30.64 |
| 26-Aug-2020 | -14.44 | -71.14 | -29.31 |
| 27-Aug-2020 | -15.32 | -70.24 | -29.08 |
| 28-Aug-2020 | -15.60 | -70.19 | -28.45 |
| 29-Aug-2020 | -14.49 | -70.28 | -27.97 |
| 30-Aug-2020 | -13.97 | -69.45 | -27.15 |
| 31-Aug-2020 | -12.86 | -67.46 | -26.45 |
| 1-Sep-2020 | -13.05 | -64.82 | -27.18 |
| 2-Sep-2020 | -14.08 | -63.81 | -28.81 |
| 3-Sep-2020 | -13.20 | -65.80 | -28.60 |
| 4-Sep-2020 | -13.20 | -64.31 | -29.57 |
| 5-Sep-2020 | -14.10 | -62.79 | -28.64 |
| 6-Sep-2020 | -13.96 | -62.82 | -27.68 |
| 7-Sep-2020 | -14.12 | -64.48 | -26.41 |
| 8-Sep-2020 | -13.19 | -66.69 | -25.51 |
| 9-Sep-2020 | -12.16 | -67.29 | -23.62 |
| 10-Sep-2020 | -12.47 | -66.76 | -24.11 |
| 11-Sep-2020 | -12.21 | -68.31 | -23.95 |
| 12-Sep-2020 | -13.00 | -69.61 | -24.27 |
| 13-Sep-2020 | -13.17 | -70.12 | -26.08 |
| 14-Sep-2020 | -13.48 | -69.95 | -28.34 |
| 15-Sep-2020 | -14.54 | -69.61 | -28.25 |
| 16-Sep-2020 | -14.76 | -69.56 | -28.18 |
| 17-Sep-2020 | -14.85 | -69.39 | -27.94 |
| 18-Sep-2020 | -15.91 | -69.18 | -26.51 |
| 19-Sep-2020 | -15.53 | -69.05 | -25.73 |
| 20-Sep-2020 | -14.77 | -68.94 | -25.31 |
| 21-Sep-2020 | -13.95 | -68.79 | -25.28 |
| 22-Sep-2020 | -12.25 | -68.66 | -25.23 |
| 23-Sep-2020 | -11.53 | -68.58 | -25.13 |
| 24-Sep-2020 | -10.33 | -68.30 | -24.96 |
| 25-Sep-2020 | -9.22 | -68.00 | -25.00 |
| 26-Sep-2020 | -8.98 | -67.82 | -25.50 |
| 27-Sep-2020 | -9.94 | -67.44 | -25.51 |
| 28-Sep-2020 | -10.80 | -67.13 | -25.60 |
| 29-Sep-2020 | -12.02 | -66.89 | -25.76 |
| 30-Sep-2020 | -13.22 | -66.68 | -25.59 |
| 1-Oct-2020 | -14.99 | -66.69 | -25.16 |
| 2-Oct-2020 | -16.03 | -66.64 | -25.28 |
| 3-Oct-2020 | -17.55 | -66.57 | -24.96 |
| 4-Oct-2020 | -17.48 | -66.64 | -25.16 |
| 5-Oct-2020 | -17.32 | -66.46 | -25.18 |
| 6-Oct-2020 | -17.52 | -66.11 | -24.89 |
| 7-Oct-2020 | -17.07 | -65.87 | -25.04 |
| 8-Oct-2020 | -15.85 | -65.39 | -25.26 |
| 9-Oct-2020 | -15.56 | -65.00 | -25.25 |
| 10-Oct-2020 | -14.68 | -65.04 | -25.36 |
| 11-Oct-2020 | -15.98 | -64.96 | -25.48 |
| 12-Oct-2020 | -17.35 | -64.83 | -26.80 |
| 13-Oct-2020 | -18.23 | -64.70 | -27.58 |
| 14-Oct-2020 | -20.06 | -64.54 | -28.19 |
| 15-Oct-2020 | -21.92 | -64.37 | -28.26 |
| 16-Oct-2020 | -23.00 | -64.38 | -28.53 |
| 17-Oct-2020 | -23.76 | -64.09 | -28.49 |
| 18-Oct-2020 | -23.94 | -64.08 | -28.55 |
| 19-Oct-2020 | -23.94 | -64.09 | -28.27 |
| 20-Oct-2020 | -23.63 | -64.08 | -27.89 |
| 21-Oct-2020 | -22.77 | -64.03 | -27.57 |
| 22-Oct-2020 | -21.94 | -64.04 | -28.10 |
| 23-Oct-2020 | -21.67 | -63.80 | -28.54 |
| 24-Oct-2020 | -21.20 | -63.40 | -29.25 |
| 25-Oct-2020 | -20.52 | -63.16 | -29.23 |
| 26-Oct-2020 | -19.72 | -62.38 | -28.16 |
| 27-Oct-2020 | -19.36 | -62.13 | -28.05 |
| 28-Oct-2020 | -19.17 | -62.80 | -28.14 |
| 29-Oct-2020 | -19.49 | -63.07 | -27.80 |
| 30-Oct-2020 | -19.12 | -63.56 | -27.23 |
| 31-Oct-2020 | -18.98 | -64.27 | -27.53 |
| 1-Nov-2020 | -19.28 | -64.66 | -27.89 |
| 2-Nov-2020 | -20.58 | -65.73 | -28.51 |
| 3-Nov-2020 | -21.30 | -66.20 | -28.72 |
| 4-Nov-2020 | -21.64 | -65.91 | -29.28 |
| 5-Nov-2020 | -21.59 | -65.45 | -29.85 |
| 6-Nov-2020 | -21.55 | -65.65 | -30.30 |
| 7-Nov-2020 | -21.98 | -65.83 | -29.69 |
| 8-Nov-2020 | -22.20 | -65.43 | -29.79 |
| 9-Nov-2020 | -21.69 | -65.12 | -30.02 |
| 10-Nov-2020 | -21.00 | -64.97 | -30.39 |
| 11-Nov-2020 | -20.58 | -64.70 | -30.01 |
| 12-Nov-2020 | -20.29 | -64.75 | -29.72 |
| 13-Nov-2020 | -20.78 | -64.07 | -29.81 |
| 14-Nov-2020 | -20.71 | -63.39 | -30.18 |
| 15-Nov-2020 | -20.62 | -63.20 | -30.45 |
| 16-Nov-2020 | -20.31 | -63.09 | -30.51 |
| 17-Nov-2020 | -20.91 | -62.46 | -30.34 |
| 18-Nov-2020 | -20.59 | -61.57 | -30.64 |
| 19-Nov-2020 | -20.38 | -60.95 | -31.14 |
| 20-Nov-2020 | -19.85 | -60.62 | -32.04 |
| 21-Nov-2020 | -19.18 | -60.06 | -33.32 |
| 22-Nov-2020 | -20.12 | -59.19 | -33.81 |
| 23-Nov-2020 | -19.82 | -59.22 | -32.89 |
| 24-Nov-2020 | -18.11 | -58.97 | -31.67 |
| 25-Nov-2020 | -17.46 | -60.27 | -29.97 |
| 26-Nov-2020 | -15.59 | -60.85 | -36.57 |
| 27-Nov-2020 | -15.18 | -61.25 | -42.22 |
| 28-Nov-2020 | -14.84 | -61.68 | -40.13 |
| 29-Nov-2020 | -13.25 | -63.06 | -39.49 |
| 30-Nov-2020 | -13.51 | -63.49 | -39.11 |
| 1-Dec-2020 | -14.45 | -64.54 | -39.73 |
| 2-Dec-2020 | -15.00 | -64.66 | -41.84 |
| 3-Dec-2020 | -16.39 | -65.50 | -32.31 |
| 4-Dec-2020 | -16.55 | -66.50 | -25.10 |
| 5-Dec-2020 | -16.87 | -67.52 | -29.45 |
| 6-Dec-2020 | -16.91 | -67.91 | -30.62 |
| 7-Dec-2020 | -17.25 | -68.01 | -31.47 |
| 8-Dec-2020 | -17.25 | -68.02 | -32.54 |
| 9-Dec-2020 | -17.19 | -68.10 | -32.96 |
| 10-Dec-2020 | -17.22 | -67.93 | -35.69 |
| 11-Dec-2020 | -17.41 | -67.66 | -36.60 |
| 12-Dec-2020 | -16.83 | -67.57 | -37.14 |
| 13-Dec-2020 | -17.37 | -67.51 | -38.11 |
| 14-Dec-2020 | -17.77 | -67.14 | -39.19 |
| 15-Dec-2020 | -17.92 | -65.83 | -39.09 |
| 16-Dec-2020 | NA | -64.56 | -39.48 |
| 17-Dec-2020 | NA | -63.82 | -39.79 |
| 18-Dec-2020 | NA | -63.14 | -39.86 |
| 19-Dec-2020 | NA | -60.46 | -40.41 |
| 20-Dec-2020 | NA | -56.41 | -40.15 |
| 21-Dec-2020 | NA | -56.63 | -38.03 |
| 22-Dec-2020 | NA | -59.28 | -36.98 |
| 23-Dec-2020 | NA | -58.91 | -36.64 |
| 24-Dec-2020 | NA | -57.72 | -36.27 |
| 25-Dec-2020 | NA | -56.80 | -39.64 |
| 26-Dec-2020 | NA | -56.71 | -41.76 |
| 27-Dec-2020 | NA | -57.38 | -41.16 |
| 28-Dec-2020 | NA | -56.80 | -40.38 |
| 29-Dec-2020 | NA | -54.93 | -40.09 |
| 30-Dec-2020 | NA | -53.72 | -39.55 |
| 31-Dec-2020 | NA | -53.00 | -38.65 |
Note: Year-over-year (YoY) changes in food services are calculated from 7−day moving averages. Vertical line marks the disbursement of CARES stimulus checks in about mid-April.
Source: For health−care visits, Safegraph; for airline passengers, Transportation Security Agency checkpoint throughput; for food services, Fiserv, Inc.
Figure 4: Spending on Retail Goods (Right Panel)
Percent change, YoY
| Date | Total, including online | Brick and mortar only |
|---|---|---|
| 2018m1 | 2.80 | 0.91 |
| 2018m2 | 1.97 | -0.68 |
| 2018m3 | 2.59 | 0.72 |
| 2018m4 | 3.26 | 0.79 |
| 2018m5 | 4.27 | 2.51 |
| 2018m6 | 6.02 | 4.59 |
| 2018m7 | 4.11 | 2.28 |
| 2018m8 | 5.69 | 4.04 |
| 2018m9 | 5.41 | 3.58 |
| 2018m10 | 4.81 | 3.12 |
| 2018m11 | 4.59 | 2.33 |
| 2018m12 | 4.29 | 2.74 |
| 2019m1 | 3.72 | 1.89 |
| 2019m2 | 3.28 | 1.67 |
| 2019m3 | 2.72 | 0.79 |
| 2019m4 | 2.33 | 0.45 |
| 2019m5 | 1.43 | -0.70 |
| 2019m6 | 2.32 | 0.16 |
| 2019m7 | 2.61 | 0.63 |
| 2019m8 | 3.55 | 1.57 |
| 2019m9 | 3.99 | 1.90 |
| 2019m10 | 2.47 | 0.44 |
| 2019m11 | 1.74 | -0.23 |
| 2019m12 | 4.07 | 2.05 |
| 2020m1 | 4.82 | 2.92 |
| 2020m2 | 3.91 | 2.10 |
| 2020m3 | -5.09 | -8.79 |
| 2020m4 | -2.65 | -12.07 |
| 2020m5 | 2.48 | -11.64 |
| 2020m6 | 2.35 | -10.26 |
| 2020m7 | 0.87 | -10.20 |
| 2020m8 | 3.43 | -7.17 |
| 2020m9 | 7.42 | -0.29 |
| 2020m10 | 7.16 | -0.88 |
| 2020m11 | 7.52 | -0.04 |
| 2020m12 | 5.48 | -0.56 |
Note: Year-over-year (YoY) changes in seasonally adjusted spending. Total retail excludes auto dealers. Brick and mortar is non−ecommerce component of total retail goods sales. Vertical line marks the disbursement of CARES stimulus checks in about the beginning of 2020.
Source: Mastercard Advisors, SpendingPulse.
Figure 5. Spending on New Durable Goods and PCE Durables Stock Gap as Percent of Counterfactual Stock
Figure 5: Spending on New Durable Goods (Left Panel)
Trillions, 2012 dollars (annual rate)
| Date | Actual | Counterfactual |
|---|---|---|
| 2018m1 | 1.65 | 1.65 |
| 2018m2 | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| 2018m3 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 2018m4 | 1.68 | 1.68 |
| 2018m5 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| 2018m6 | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| 2018m7 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| 2018m8 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| 2018m9 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| 2018m10 | 1.72 | 1.72 |
| 2018m11 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| 2018m12 | 1.68 | 1.68 |
| 2019m1 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| 2019m2 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| 2019m3 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| 2019m4 | 1.76 | 1.76 |
| 2019m5 | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| 2019m6 | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| 2019m7 | 1.79 | 1.79 |
| 2019m8 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| 2019m9 | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| 2019m10 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| 2019m11 | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| 2019m12 | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| 2020m1 | 1.84 | 1.84 |
| 2020m2 | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| 2020m3 | 1.61 | 1.82 |
| 2020m4 | 1.43 | 1.83 |
| 2020m5 | 1.83 | 1.84 |
| 2020m6 | 1.98 | 1.85 |
| 2020m7 | 2.01 | 1.86 |
| 2020m8 | 2.03 | 1.87 |
| 2020m9 | 2.05 | 1.88 |
| 2020m10 | 2.07 | 1.89 |
| 2020m11 | 2.03 | 1.90 |
Figure 5: PCE Durables Stock Gap as Percent of Counterfactual Stock (Right Panel)
Percent
| Date | Stock Gap as Percent of Counterfactual Stock |
|---|---|
| 2020m1 | 0.00% |
| 2020m2 | 0.00% |
| 2020m3 | -0.99% |
| 2020m4 | -2.83% |
| 2020m5 | -2.86% |
| 2020m6 | -2.28% |
| 2020m7 | -1.61% |
| 2020m8 | -0.88% |
| 2020m9 | -0.13% |
| 2020m10 | 0.67% |
| 2020m11 | 1.26% |
Note: Counterfactual assumes average growth from 2015 to 2019 continues from the February 2020 jumpoff point. Gap (right panel) is cumulative difference between actual and counterfactual path as percent of counterfactual.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Last Update:
January 14, 2021