Accessible Version
Trade-offs of Higher U.S. Tariffs: GDP, Revenues, and the Trade Deficit, Accessible Data
Figure 1: Economic Effects under Scenarios 1 and 2
(a) Effects on GDP
Percent
| Country | Scenario 1: U.S. raises 60 ppt. tariff on China | Scenario 2: U.S. raises 60 ppt. tariff on China and 10 ppt. on other trading partners |
|---|---|---|
| Global | -0.58 | -0.794 |
| U.S. | -2.82 | -2.3 |
| China | -2.16 | -2.41 |
| Mexico | 3.12 | 0.29 |
| Canada | 0.23 | -0.23 |
| Asia ex. China | 0.8175 | 0.55250001 |
| Europe | 0.22687501 | 0.14937501 |
| South America | 0.40666667 | 0.06333333 |
| Rest of World | 0.375 | 0.12 |
(b) Effects on GDP inclusive of Tariff Revenues
Percent
| Country | Scenario 1: U.S. raises 60 ppt. tariff on China | Scenario 2: U.S. raises 60 ppt. tariff on China and 10 ppt. on other trading partners |
|---|---|---|
| Global | -0.573 | -1.013 |
| U.S. | -2.66 | -3.62 |
| China | -2.14 | -2.39 |
| Mexico | 2.83 | 0.04 |
| Canada | 0.16 | -0.31 |
| Asia ex. China | 0.77499998 | 0.51999998 |
| Europe | 0.20125 | 0.13312501 |
| South America | 0.40333334 | 0.06666667 |
| Rest of World | 0.36750001 | 0.1125 |
Notes: Figure 1 shows the economic effects of the U.S. trade policy scenarios 1 and 2 described in Table 1. Panel (a) present the effects on GDP. Panel (b) presents the effects on GDP, defined as inclusive of tariff revenues. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Figure 2: U.S. Economic Effects under Scenarios 1 - 3
Percent
| Country | Scenario 1: U.S. raises 60 ppt. tariff on China | Scenario 2: U.S. raises 60 ppt. tariff on China and 10 ppt. on other trading partners | Scenario 3: U.S. raises 60 ppt. tariff on China and 10 ppt. on other trading partners and U.S. trade deficit decreases 25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | -2.82 | -2.3 | -2.87 |
Notes: Figure 2 shows the U.S. GDP effects, inclusive of tariff revenues, for the U.S. trade policy scenarios 1, 2, and 3 as described in Table 1. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Figure 3: U.S. Economic Effects under different U.S. Trade Deficit Assumptions
Percent
| Country | Change in the U.S. Trade Deficit | Effects on GDP inclusive of Tariff Revenues | Tariff Revenues (Share of U.S. GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Unchanged (Scenario 2) | -2.30 | 1.32 |
| U.S. | Narrows 5% | -2.42 | 1.20 |
| U.S. | Narrows 15% | -2.65 | 0.97 |
| U.S. | Narrows 25% (Scenario 3) | -2.87 | 0.75 |
| U.S. | Narrows 50% | -3.43 | 0.19 |
Notes: The green bars in Figure 3 represent U.S. tariff revenues as a share of U.S. GDP under the broad-based tariff scenario, with varying assumptions about the U.S. trade deficit. If the U.S. trade deficit remains unchanged, it corresponds to scenario 2 in Table 1. If the U.S. trade deficit decreases by 25 percent, it corresponds to scenario 3 in Table 1. The gray bars in Figure 3 show the corresponding U.S. GDP effects, inclusive of tariff revenues. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.
Source: Author’s calculations.