Accessible Version

Summary Part 1: Recent Economic and Financial Developments Part 2: Monetary Policy Part 3: Summary of Economic Projections Abbreviations

Accessible Version

Part 1: Recent Economic and Financial Developments

Figure 1. Personal consumption expenditures price indexes

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Trimmed mean	Total	Excluding food and energy
January 2017	1.95	2.01	1.86
February 2017	1.91	2.20	1.87
March 2017	1.84	1.91	1.68
April 2017	1.78	1.77	1.64
May 2017	1.68	1.56	1.55
June 2017	1.68	1.47	1.58
July 2017	1.64	1.49	1.50
August 2017	1.64	1.57	1.43
September 2017	1.63	1.76	1.42
October 2017	1.63	1.68	1.54
November 2017	1.65	1.79	1.55
December 2017	1.66	1.77	1.58
January 2018	1.72	1.76	1.63
February 2018	1.75	1.84	1.64
March 2018	1.79	2.00	1.91
April 2018	1.76	2.05	1.88
May 2018	1.86	2.27	1.98
June 2018	1.90	2.27	1.94
July 2018	1.93	2.34	2.00
August 2018	1.93	2.18	1.90
September 2018	1.94	2.01	1.96
October 2018	1.96	2.05	1.87
November 2018	2.02	1.94	2.01
December 2018	2.02	1.86	2.04
January 2019	1.92	1.50	1.85
February 2019	1.96	1.43	1.74
March 2019	2.00	1.51	1.61
April 2019	2.12	1.58	1.65
May 2019	2.02	1.46	1.57
June 2019	2.00	1.41	1.68
July 2019	2.04	1.44	1.67
August 2019	2.04	1.42	1.76
September 2019	2.01	1.30	1.65
October 2019	2.02	1.33	1.64
November 2019	1.93	1.33	1.47
December 2019	1.93	1.54	1.50
January 2020	1.98	1.70	1.55
February 2020	1.98	1.64	1.66
March 2020	1.88	1.15	1.49
April 2020	1.74	0.41	0.93
May 2020	1.82	0.45	0.95
June 2020	1.80	0.71	0.91
July 2020	1.85	0.90	1.16
August 2020	1.87	1.17	1.37
September 2020	1.86	1.25	1.44
October 2020	1.79	1.12	1.37
November 2020	1.72	1.15	1.43
December 2020	1.71	1.37	1.55
January 2021	1.70	1.62	1.72
February 2021	1.71	1.89	1.75
March 2021	1.81	2.71	2.26
April 2021	1.94	3.72	3.22
May 2021	2.01	4.16	3.64
June 2021	2.08	4.37	3.95
July 2021	2.13	4.53	4.01
August 2021	2.22	4.64	4.02
September 2021	2.46	4.81	4.07
October 2021	2.75	5.41	4.50
November 2021	3.06	5.99	4.95
December 2021	3.33	6.18	5.24
January 2022	3.71	6.30	5.37
February 2022	3.91	6.55	5.57
March 2022	3.99	6.89	5.55
April 2022	4.03	6.62	5.25
May 2022	4.24	6.69	5.07
June 2022	4.63	7.12	5.19
July 2022	4.72	6.62	4.96
August 2022	4.95	6.52	5.21
September 2022	4.98	6.56	5.47
October 2022	4.98	6.35	5.33
November 2022	4.92	5.93	5.09
December 2022	4.86	5.44	4.87
January 2023	4.78	5.48	4.90
February 2023	4.75	5.19	4.84
March 2023	4.82	4.44	4.78
April 2023	4.88	4.45	4.76
May 2023	4.70	3.96	4.69
June 2023	4.33	3.20	4.28
July 2023	4.18	3.31	4.19
August 2023	3.88	3.35	3.73
September 2023	3.80	3.37	3.59
October 2023	3.59	2.94	3.38
November 2023	3.42	2.70	3.18
December 2023	3.23	2.62	2.94
January 2024	3.20	2.48	2.94
February 2024	3.11	2.50	2.83
March 2024	3.05	2.72	2.83
April 2024	2.94	2.68	2.78
May 2024	2.79	2.56	2.57

Source: For trimmed mean, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; for all else, Bureau of Economic Analysis; all via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 2. Core personal consumption expenditures price index

Monthly
Percent, annual rate

Period	3-month change	6-month change	12-month change
January 2017	1.72	1.75	1.86
February 2017	2.27	1.75	1.87
March 2017	1.62	1.39	1.68
April 2017	1.37	1.55	1.64
May 2017	0.98	1.62	1.55
June 2017	1.69	1.66	1.58
July 2017	1.16	1.26	1.50
August 2017	1.27	1.12	1.43
September 2017	1.22	1.45	1.42
October 2017	1.92	1.54	1.54
November 2017	1.68	1.47	1.55
December 2017	1.78	1.50	1.58
January 2018	2.09	2.00	1.63
February 2018	2.66	2.17	1.64
March 2018	2.96	2.37	1.91
April 2018	2.38	2.23	1.88
May 2018	2.32	2.49	1.98
June 2018	1.80	2.38	1.94
July 2018	1.60	1.99	2.00
August 2018	0.93	1.62	1.90
September 2018	1.31	1.56	1.96
October 2018	1.42	1.51	1.87
November 2018	2.13	1.53	2.01
December 2018	2.09	1.70	2.04
January 2019	2.02	1.72	1.85
February 2019	1.58	1.86	1.74
March 2019	1.23	1.66	1.61
April 2019	1.55	1.78	1.65
May 2019	1.65	1.62	1.57
June 2019	2.10	1.66	1.68
July 2019	1.68	1.62	1.67
August 2019	1.67	1.66	1.76
September 2019	1.18	1.64	1.65
October 2019	1.33	1.50	1.64
November 2019	0.99	1.33	1.47
December 2019	1.51	1.34	1.50
January 2020	1.65	1.49	1.55
February 2020	2.32	1.65	1.66
March 2020	1.18	1.35	1.49
April 2020	-0.91	0.36	0.93
May 2020	-1.14	0.57	0.95
June 2020	-0.23	0.48	0.91
July 2020	2.62	0.84	1.16
August 2020	3.36	1.08	1.37
September 2020	3.34	1.54	1.44
October 2020	2.14	2.38	1.37
November 2020	1.23	2.29	1.43
December 2020	1.95	2.64	1.55
January 2021	3.06	2.60	1.72
February 2021	3.64	2.43	1.75
March 2021	4.01	2.97	2.26
April 2021	5.09	4.07	3.22
May 2021	6.41	5.02	3.64
June 2021	6.55	5.27	3.95
July 2021	5.80	5.44	4.01
August 2021	4.86	5.63	4.02
September 2021	3.84	5.19	4.07
October 2021	4.08	4.94	4.50
November 2021	4.91	4.89	4.95
December 2021	6.58	5.20	5.24
January 2022	6.53	5.30	5.37
February 2022	6.12	5.52	5.57
March 2022	5.25	5.91	5.55
April 2022	4.63	5.58	5.25
May 2022	4.41	5.26	5.07
June 2022	5.12	5.18	5.19
July 2022	4.62	4.63	4.96
August 2022	5.39	4.90	5.21
September 2022	4.95	5.03	5.47
October 2022	5.54	5.08	5.33
November 2022	4.45	4.92	5.09
December 2022	4.15	4.55	4.87
January 2023	4.82	5.18	4.90
February 2023	5.13	4.79	4.84
March 2023	4.92	4.53	4.78
April 2023	4.08	4.45	4.76
May 2023	3.79	4.46	4.69
June 2023	3.11	4.01	4.28
July 2023	2.35	3.21	4.19
August 2023	1.57	2.67	3.73
September 2023	2.21	2.66	3.59
October 2023	2.31	2.33	3.38
November 2023	2.27	1.92	3.18
December 2023	1.55	1.88	2.94
January 2024	3.03	2.67	2.94
February 2024	3.72	2.99	2.83
March 2024	4.48	3.00	2.83
April 2024	3.45	3.24	2.78
May 2024	2.74	3.23	2.57

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption expenditures via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 3. Subcomponents of personal consumption expenditures price indexes

Food and energy

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Energy	Food and beverages
January 2017	12.25	-1.43
February 2017	17.69	-1.37
March 2017	12.42	-0.65
April 2017	9.36	-0.60
May 2017	5.25	-0.21
June 2017	2.14	-0.16
July 2017	3.62	0.14
August 2017	7.15	0.29
September 2017	11.84	0.44
October 2017	6.95	0.55
November 2017	9.47	0.64
December 2017	7.57	0.86
January 2018	5.86	0.94
February 2018	8.27	0.60
March 2018	6.95	0.37
April 2018	8.67	0.39
May 2018	12.60	0.16
June 2018	13.20	0.43
July 2018	13.80	0.40
August 2018	11.71	0.42
September 2018	5.54	0.57
October 2018	8.88	0.36
November 2018	2.66	0.69
December 2018	-0.03	0.88
January 2019	-4.70	0.84
February 2019	-4.97	1.39
March 2019	-0.53	1.42
April 2019	1.42	0.80
May 2019	-0.63	1.26
June 2019	-3.62	1.08
July 2019	-2.26	0.88
August 2019	-4.35	0.81
September 2019	-4.69	0.81
October 2019	-4.27	1.06
November 2019	-0.70	0.95
December 2019	4.07	0.77
January 2020	6.86	0.88
February 2020	3.14	0.89
March 2020	-6.15	1.21
April 2020	-17.55	3.93
May 2020	-18.38	4.50
June 2020	-12.45	4.98
July 2020	-11.27	4.13
August 2020	-9.21	4.13
September 2020	-8.14	3.75
October 2020	-9.64	3.80
November 2020	-9.90	3.66
December 2020	-7.51	3.89
January 2021	-4.34	3.56
February 2021	1.97	3.32
March 2021	13.09	3.02
April 2021	24.20	1.10
May 2021	27.33	0.68
June 2021	24.27	0.92
July 2021	23.49	2.33
August 2021	25.22	2.77
September 2021	25.27	4.01
October 2021	30.40	4.64
November 2021	33.81	5.47
December 2021	30.51	5.65
January 2022	28.14	6.49
February 2022	26.72	7.68
March 2022	33.15	8.89
April 2022	31.55	9.61
May 2022	35.62	10.56
June 2022	42.80	10.99
July 2022	33.38	11.78
August 2022	24.12	12.18
September 2022	19.96	11.75
October 2022	18.23	11.47
November 2022	13.52	11.17
December 2022	6.86	11.09
January 2023	7.80	10.62
February 2023	4.29	9.48
March 2023	-7.59	7.94
April 2023	-5.70	6.94
May 2023	-12.30	5.85
June 2023	-17.51	4.72
July 2023	-13.02	3.68
August 2023	-3.49	3.11
September 2023	0.10	2.72
October 2023	-4.56	2.37
November 2023	-4.98	1.74
December 2023	-1.73	1.39
January 2024	-4.92	1.45
February 2024	-2.29	1.34
March 2024	2.59	1.50
April 2024	3.00	1.34
May 2024	4.84	1.25

Note: The data are monthly.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

Components of core prices

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Services ex. energy and housing	Housing services	Goods ex. food, beverages, and energy
January 2017	2.38	3.61	-0.53
February 2017	2.41	3.62	-0.58
March 2017	2.09	3.60	-0.59
April 2017	2.19	3.52	-0.93
May 2017	2.07	3.43	-0.96
June 2017	2.05	3.41	-0.79
July 2017	1.87	3.39	-0.66
August 2017	1.85	3.45	-0.94
September 2017	2.00	3.37	-1.27
October 2017	2.09	3.36	-0.99
November 2017	2.06	3.30	-0.87
December 2017	2.09	3.35	-0.84
January 2018	2.14	3.38	-0.76
February 2018	2.21	3.29	-0.82
March 2018	2.58	3.37	-0.67
April 2018	2.38	3.47	-0.37
May 2018	2.44	3.49	-0.14
June 2018	2.48	3.43	-0.36
July 2018	2.61	3.47	-0.45
August 2018	2.55	3.42	-0.67
September 2018	2.59	3.37	-0.49
October 2018	2.47	3.34	-0.55
November 2018	2.55	3.39	-0.22
December 2018	2.64	3.28	-0.26
January 2019	2.35	3.26	-0.30
February 2019	2.22	3.37	-0.52
March 2019	2.05	3.41	-0.70
April 2019	2.20	3.45	-0.92
May 2019	2.06	3.43	-0.86
June 2019	2.04	3.51	-0.43
July 2019	2.06	3.46	-0.52
August 2019	2.05	3.42	-0.08
September 2019	1.90	3.48	-0.22
October 2019	1.96	3.38	-0.32
November 2019	1.78	3.32	-0.51
December 2019	1.83	3.33	-0.53
January 2020	2.02	3.39	-0.80
February 2020	2.07	3.34	-0.44
March 2020	1.88	3.26	-0.62
April 2020	1.22	3.11	-1.26
May 2020	1.40	3.09	-1.56
June 2020	1.47	2.86	-1.70
July 2020	1.60	2.82	-0.96
August 2020	1.74	2.70	-0.42
September 2020	1.98	2.50	-0.46
October 2020	1.89	2.51	-0.54
November 2020	1.89	2.30	-0.19
December 2020	2.05	2.19	0.08
January 2021	2.27	2.03	0.34
February 2021	2.50	2.04	0.02
March 2021	3.20	2.01	0.51
April 2021	4.02	2.03	2.42
May 2021	4.16	2.09	3.66
June 2021	4.33	2.30	4.30
July 2021	4.55	2.37	4.00
August 2021	4.55	2.51	3.93
September 2021	4.42	2.84	4.18
October 2021	4.61	3.08	5.23
November 2021	5.12	3.45	5.59
December 2021	5.25	3.71	6.23
January 2022	5.05	4.02	6.92
February 2022	4.99	4.27	7.64
March 2022	4.95	4.49	7.46
April 2022	4.89	4.77	6.32
May 2022	4.78	5.09	5.68
June 2022	4.87	5.51	5.66
July 2022	4.45	5.90	5.43
August 2022	4.69	6.36	5.55
September 2022	4.97	6.76	5.71
October 2022	5.16	6.99	4.62
November 2022	5.02	7.27	3.84
December 2022	4.84	7.69	3.11
January 2023	5.10	7.92	2.59
February 2023	5.11	8.17	2.20
March 2023	4.87	8.20	2.45
April 2023	4.81	8.27	2.45
May 2023	4.70	8.19	2.45
June 2023	4.43	7.93	1.66
July 2023	4.58	7.74	1.11
August 2023	4.16	7.42	0.47
September 2023	4.15	7.15	0.15
October 2023	3.78	6.92	0.28
November 2023	3.53	6.70	0.18
December 2023	3.34	6.31	-0.08
January 2024	3.62	6.13	-0.57
February 2024	3.42	5.85	-0.38
March 2024	3.52	5.79	-0.56
April 2024	3.48	5.64	-0.58
May 2024	3.39	5.54	-1.12

Note: The data are monthly.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 4. Spot and futures prices for crude oil

Series: Brent spot price and 24-month-ahead futures contracts

Horizon: January 1, 2019, to June 28, 2024

Description: A line chart with two curves over January 1, 2019, to June 28, 2024. Units are dollars per barrel. The data are weekly averages of daily data.

The Brent spot price series starts at around 58 and fluctuates between about 58 and 75 through 2019 until it falls sharply to nearly 20 by mid-2020. The series climbs steadily to and peaks at about 120 in mid-2022 and ends at about 85 in June 2024, with two smaller peaks near 100 and 90 in October 2023 and April 2024, respectively. The 24-month-ahead futures contracts series, while a bit less volatile in its movements, largely follows the Brent spot price series. The series starts at and hovers around 60 in 2019. It drops to about 40 by mid-2020 before rising steadily to about 90 in mid-2022 and declining to and hovering slightly below 80 through June 2024.

The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 28, 2024.

Source: ICE Brent Futures via Bloomberg.

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Figure 5. Spot prices for commodities

Weekly
Week ending January 4, 2019 = 100

Period	Industrial metals	Agriculture and livestock
4 January 2019	100.00	100.00
11 January 2019	101.49	101.71
18 January 2019	102.04	101.80
25 January 2019	103.90	101.97
1 February 2019	105.38	101.46
8 February 2019	106.97	101.62
15 February 2019	104.36	101.30
22 February 2019	107.37	100.19
1 March 2019	109.23	98.78
8 March 2019	107.97	97.93
15 March 2019	108.30	99.44
22 March 2019	108.80	102.39
29 March 2019	108.15	102.00
5 April 2019	108.70	101.84
12 April 2019	108.07	103.03
19 April 2019	107.80	102.81
26 April 2019	106.70	100.10
3 May 2019	104.62	98.38
10 May 2019	102.72	96.12
17 May 2019	102.34	96.65
24 May 2019	100.64	99.04
31 May 2019	100.14	101.90
7 June 2019	98.90	101.34
14 June 2019	99.39	103.35
21 June 2019	100.00	104.35
28 June 2019	101.54	103.22
5 July 2019	100.13	101.59
12 July 2019	101.22	102.42
19 July 2019	103.73	101.43
26 July 2019	102.93	100.98
2 August 2019	101.68	98.08
9 August 2019	99.70	96.72
16 August 2019	100.96	92.94
23 August 2019	100.36	91.87
30 August 2019	100.12	91.75
6 September 2019	101.96	90.57
13 September 2019	103.81	92.28
20 September 2019	102.88	95.02
27 September 2019	101.76	96.07
4 October 2019	100.81	97.97
11 October 2019	101.95	98.14
18 October 2019	101.82	99.96
25 October 2019	102.91	99.20
1 November 2019	103.89	99.53
8 November 2019	104.56	99.95
15 November 2019	101.56	101.65
22 November 2019	99.85	100.74
29 November 2019	100.08	101.35
6 December 2019	99.18	101.05
13 December 2019	101.10	102.15
20 December 2019	102.55	104.53
27 December 2019	103.37	104.66
3 January 2020	102.97	105.18
10 January 2020	102.96	105.07
17 January 2020	104.08	106.22
24 January 2020	101.92	105.98
31 January 2020	96.38	102.53
7 February 2020	95.57	101.53
14 February 2020	96.73	102.02
21 February 2020	96.37	103.36
28 February 2020	94.66	99.10
6 March 2020	95.12	98.43
13 March 2020	92.77	94.80
20 March 2020	86.86	89.57
27 March 2020	83.33	94.11
3 April 2020	83.40	88.89
10 April 2020	83.90	87.89
17 April 2020	85.84	86.92
24 April 2020	85.90	86.84
1 May 2020	86.15	87.08
8 May 2020	85.87	89.14
15 May 2020	86.14	89.18
22 May 2020	88.11	88.96
29 May 2020	87.96	89.93
5 June 2020	90.90	90.01
12 June 2020	93.57	90.63
19 June 2020	93.48	89.85
26 June 2020	94.15	88.50
3 July 2020	95.71	89.98
10 July 2020	98.84	91.64
17 July 2020	101.35	91.78
24 July 2020	101.70	92.04
31 July 2020	102.35	91.97
7 August 2020	104.16	91.67
14 August 2020	104.02	93.09
21 August 2020	106.15	95.48
28 August 2020	106.66	96.73
4 September 2020	107.69	97.84
11 September 2020	106.91	99.19
18 September 2020	108.25	101.43
25 September 2020	105.51	100.98
2 October 2020	104.75	101.85
9 October 2020	106.02	104.76
16 October 2020	108.67	105.78
23 October 2020	110.24	107.16
30 October 2020	108.78	106.02
6 November 2020	110.99	106.64
13 November 2020	112.58	109.60
20 November 2020	116.05	110.74
27 November 2020	117.88	111.90
4 December 2020	121.67	109.99
11 December 2020	122.51	109.56
18 December 2020	123.95	111.76
25 December 2020	122.30	114.54
1 January 2021	122.00	117.34
8 January 2021	125.12	120.46
15 January 2021	123.74	124.15
22 January 2021	123.74	124.43
29 January 2021	122.77	125.68
5 February 2021	121.75	126.76
12 February 2021	127.33	127.73
19 February 2021	131.62	129.33
26 February 2021	137.49	131.12
5 March 2021	134.38	128.70
12 March 2021	132.79	129.56
19 March 2021	134.72	130.47
26 March 2021	134.75	129.10
2 April 2021	132.97	128.87
9 April 2021	134.80	130.75
16 April 2021	136.56	132.13
23 April 2021	139.97	136.87
30 April 2021	145.21	142.77
7 May 2021	148.59	146.98
14 May 2021	151.32	146.78
21 May 2021	148.57	142.36
28 May 2021	147.85	140.89
4 June 2021	148.45	144.79
11 June 2021	148.08	142.59
18 June 2021	144.51	134.52
25 June 2021	143.17	130.84
2 July 2021	145.67	134.53
9 July 2021	145.32	129.25
16 July 2021	146.20	132.25
23 July 2021	145.18	134.51
30 July 2021	150.30	134.96
6 August 2021	149.24	135.12
13 August 2021	148.45	137.41
20 August 2021	145.52	138.03
27 August 2021	148.19	137.09
3 September 2021	150.33	134.96
10 September 2021	153.53	131.68
17 September 2021	154.50	131.94
24 September 2021	152.35	131.86
1 October 2021	151.48	134.91
8 October 2021	152.78	135.92
15 October 2021	162.64	134.13
22 October 2021	164.46	134.76
29 October 2021	156.49	137.17
5 November 2021	151.96	139.06
12 November 2021	152.08	140.98
19 November 2021	151.18	144.42
26 November 2021	153.79	146.69
3 December 2021	150.82	142.16
10 December 2021	151.29	142.98
17 December 2021	151.12	142.53
24 December 2021	155.32	144.70
31 December 2021	157.65	145.77
7 January 2022	159.25	144.70
14 January 2022	162.36	144.91
21 January 2022	166.00	148.97
28 January 2022	165.20	150.58
4 February 2022	164.13	152.35
11 February 2022	169.01	156.00
18 February 2022	170.34	156.75
25 February 2022	172.67	161.63
4 March 2022	182.52	170.02
11 March 2022	193.04	175.84
18 March 2022	185.68	173.50
25 March 2022	186.64	176.53
1 April 2022	185.97	172.35
8 April 2022	185.32	172.76
15 April 2022	181.57	178.20
22 April 2022	182.24	180.40
29 April 2022	172.98	177.80
6 May 2022	166.06	176.05
13 May 2022	156.99	175.66
20 May 2022	160.24	182.19
27 May 2022	161.79	179.18
3 June 2022	160.04	173.53
10 June 2022	161.67	173.92
17 June 2022	151.17	169.03
24 June 2022	144.77	160.66
1 July 2022	140.06	154.32
8 July 2022	133.64	148.27
15 July 2022	128.50	146.87
22 July 2022	131.09	145.65
29 July 2022	134.75	147.37
5 August 2022	136.37	146.85
12 August 2022	140.88	151.15
19 August 2022	138.12	150.08
26 August 2022	139.05	152.94
2 September 2022	134.57	153.97
9 September 2022	131.38	153.77
16 September 2022	133.87	156.11
23 September 2022	130.92	156.02
30 September 2022	125.69	152.27
7 October 2022	131.27	152.78
14 October 2022	130.30	154.48
21 October 2022	127.75	152.70
28 October 2022	129.76	151.75
4 November 2022	130.49	153.52
11 November 2022	137.61	152.84
18 November 2022	141.47	153.18
25 November 2022	136.90	152.05
2 December 2022	141.14	150.85
9 December 2022	146.30	148.22
16 December 2022	143.34	149.78
23 December 2022	141.95	151.59
30 December 2022	143.22	154.21
6 January 2023	140.48	149.91
13 January 2023	149.31	150.38
20 January 2023	154.33	152.18
27 January 2023	155.36	152.52
3 February 2023	153.18	155.18
10 February 2023	147.35	154.45
17 February 2023	144.62	155.51
24 February 2023	144.76	154.19
3 March 2023	143.73	150.66
10 March 2023	140.98	150.19
17 March 2023	138.23	149.85
24 March 2023	139.28	148.28
31 March 2023	142.75	152.00
7 April 2023	139.87	152.99
14 April 2023	140.85	153.08
21 April 2023	143.40	153.60
28 April 2023	138.25	149.81
5 May 2023	137.80	148.13
12 May 2023	134.74	148.88
19 May 2023	131.98	147.56
26 May 2023	129.14	146.14
2 June 2023	130.11	147.36
9 June 2023	131.09	148.36
16 June 2023	133.62	147.19
23 June 2023	132.75	152.62
30 June 2023	129.28	145.71
7 July 2023	129.13	144.56
14 July 2023	132.44	144.48
21 July 2023	131.82	148.95
28 July 2023	133.93	151.23
4 August 2023	134.55	144.13
11 August 2023	130.97	143.50
18 August 2023	127.89	141.62
25 August 2023	129.86	142.63
1 September 2023	131.39	143.64
8 September 2023	130.81	144.02
15 September 2023	131.65	144.24
22 September 2023	130.86	143.20
29 September 2023	130.45	141.37
6 October 2023	128.42	139.95
13 October 2023	127.45	140.37
20 October 2023	126.45	141.38
27 October 2023	127.13	139.19
3 November 2023	128.80	139.47
10 November 2023	129.45	139.98
17 November 2023	129.22	141.14
24 November 2023	130.10	139.39
1 December 2023	129.43	137.40
8 December 2023	126.77	136.72
15 December 2023	128.04	136.35
22 December 2023	131.45	135.42
29 December 2023	133.95	135.78
5 January 2024	131.05	133.76
12 January 2024	128.87	134.14
19 January 2024	127.40	134.44
26 January 2024	130.18	137.56
2 February 2024	130.99	138.24
9 February 2024	127.12	138.16
16 February 2024	127.45	137.56
23 February 2024	129.47	137.07
1 March 2024	129.33	137.46
8 March 2024	130.97	136.94
15 March 2024	134.33	140.00
22 March 2024	134.61	141.07
29 March 2024	133.55	141.12
5 April 2024	138.35	140.65
12 April 2024	142.74	141.10
19 April 2024	147.83	140.61
26 April 2024	149.62	143.87
3 May 2024	149.77	141.03
10 May 2024	149.64	142.89
17 May 2024	154.00	142.41
24 May 2024	158.36	144.92
31 May 2024	156.73	144.95
7 June 2024	151.02	142.09
14 June 2024	147.50	141.31
21 June 2024	145.84	138.98
28 June 2024	144.86	136.49

Note: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 28, 2024.

Source: For industrial metals, S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index; for agriculture and livestock, S&P GSCI Agriculture & Livestock Spot Index; both via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 6. Nonfuel import price index

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Nonfuel import prices
January 2014	-1.08
February 2014	-1.16
March 2014	-0.75
April 2014	-0.58
May 2014	-0.17
June 2014	0.00
July 2014	0.50
August 2014	0.67
September 2014	0.42
October 2014	0.25
November 2014	0.00
December 2014	0.00
January 2015	-0.92
February 2015	-1.09
March 2015	-1.84
April 2015	-2.17
May 2015	-2.17
June 2015	-2.26
July 2015	-2.59
August 2015	-2.92
September 2015	-3.01
October 2015	-3.18
November 2015	-3.19
December 2015	-3.45
January 2016	-2.88
February 2016	-2.80
March 2016	-2.47
April 2016	-2.05
May 2016	-1.79
June 2016	-1.80
July 2016	-1.20
August 2016	-0.86
September 2016	-0.60
October 2016	-0.35
November 2016	-0.17
December 2016	0.17
January 2017	0.17
February 2017	0.61
March 2017	0.87
April 2017	1.05
May 2017	0.87
June 2017	1.13
July 2017	0.69
August 2017	0.95
September 2017	1.30
October 2017	1.39
November 2017	1.48
December 2017	1.30
January 2018	1.91
February 2018	1.99
March 2018	1.90
April 2018	1.73
May 2018	1.81
June 2018	1.46
July 2018	1.38
August 2018	0.95
September 2018	0.60
October 2018	0.60
November 2018	0.43
December 2018	0.60
January 2019	-0.17
February 2019	-0.51
March 2019	-0.76
April 2019	-0.93
May 2019	-1.35
June 2019	-1.36
July 2019	-1.19
August 2019	-1.11
September 2019	-1.19
October 2019	-1.53
November 2019	-1.45
December 2019	-1.36
January 2020	-0.85
February 2020	-0.77
March 2020	-0.60
April 2020	-1.03
May 2020	-0.69
June 2020	-0.17
July 2020	0.00
August 2020	0.78
September 2020	1.38
October 2020	1.64
November 2020	1.56
December 2020	1.90
January 2021	2.59
February 2021	2.84
March 2021	3.79
April 2021	5.19
May 2021	6.05
June 2021	6.47
July 2021	6.28
August 2021	5.56
September 2021	5.10
October 2021	5.61
November 2021	6.39
December 2021	6.45
January 2022	6.97
February 2022	7.36
March 2022	7.71
April 2022	7.24
May 2022	5.95
June 2022	4.62
July 2022	4.13
August 2022	3.89
September 2022	3.48
October 2022	2.90
November 2022	2.00
December 2022	1.91
January 2023	0.63
February 2023	0.23
March 2023	-1.46
April 2023	-1.92
May 2023	-1.62
June 2023	-1.32
July 2023	-0.93
August 2023	-0.86
September 2023	-0.78
October 2023	-0.86
November 2023	-0.47
December 2023	-0.78
January 2024	-0.31
February 2024	-0.62
March 2024	0.00
April 2024	0.78
May 2024	0.47

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 7. Reasons for operating below full capacity

Quarterly
Percent

Period	Insufficient supply of materials	Insufficient supply of labor
2019:Q1	7.50	18.80
2019:Q2	7.10	21.00
2019:Q3	7.30	19.90
2019:Q4	7.40	16.30
2020:Q1	9.80	16.10
2020:Q2	9.40	15.20
2020:Q3	11.00	18.60
2020:Q4	13.50	21.80
2021:Q1	21.60	28.00
2021:Q2	33.30	41.00
2021:Q3	38.10	46.30
2021:Q4	42.70	43.60
2022:Q1	39.20	45.20
2022:Q2	39.50	44.70
2022:Q3	34.20	42.80
2022:Q4	27.70	37.20
2023:Q1	23.70	34.40
2023:Q2	19.50	30.80
2023:Q3	17.30	29.40
2023:Q4	16.30	25.40
2024:Q1	10.30	19.80

Note: The series are the share of firms selecting each reason for operating below full capacity.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization.

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Housing Services Inflation and Market Rent Measures

Figure A. Contributions to 12-month change in core personal consumption expenditures price index

Monthly
Percentage points

Period	Core goods	Core services ex. housing	Housing services
January 2005	0.03	1.66	0.46
February 2005	-0.02	1.71	0.47
March 2005	-0.05	1.82	0.46
April 2005	-0.10	1.76	0.43
May 2005	-0.03	1.76	0.43
June 2005	-0.10	1.75	0.42
July 2005	-0.08	1.76	0.43
August 2005	-0.02	1.75	0.42
September 2005	-0.03	1.78	0.43
October 2005	-0.10	1.91	0.44
November 2005	-0.09	1.93	0.46
December 2005	-0.07	1.87	0.46
January 2006	-0.08	1.75	0.45
February 2006	-0.12	1.78	0.46
March 2006	-0.09	1.75	0.48
April 2006	-0.03	1.85	0.52
May 2006	-0.09	1.92	0.56
June 2006	-0.05	2.01	0.61
July 2006	-0.05	1.94	0.63
August 2006	0.01	1.97	0.66
September 2006	-0.02	1.92	0.67
October 2006	-0.06	1.81	0.70
November 2006	-0.16	1.70	0.71
December 2006	-0.17	1.72	0.73
January 2007	-0.14	1.88	0.73
February 2007	-0.08	1.87	0.73
March 2007	-0.17	1.80	0.72
April 2007	-0.24	1.74	0.69
May 2007	-0.26	1.68	0.64
June 2007	-0.26	1.64	0.59
July 2007	-0.24	1.70	0.57
August 2007	-0.34	1.76	0.55
September 2007	-0.31	1.85	0.54
October 2007	-0.24	1.88	0.53
November 2007	-0.15	1.93	0.53
December 2007	-0.13	1.98	0.53
January 2008	-0.13	1.78	0.52
February 2008	-0.17	1.73	0.49
March 2008	-0.11	1.77	0.48
April 2008	-0.09	1.67	0.49
May 2008	-0.11	1.75	0.49
June 2008	-0.08	1.77	0.50
July 2008	-0.03	1.75	0.50
August 2008	0.06	1.65	0.49
September 2008	0.04	1.50	0.48
October 2008	-0.02	1.17	0.46
November 2008	-0.06	0.97	0.45
December 2008	-0.12	0.81	0.42
January 2009	-0.13	0.59	0.42
February 2009	-0.01	0.46	0.41
March 2009	0.08	0.24	0.41
April 2009	0.24	0.27	0.40
May 2009	0.27	0.13	0.41
June 2009	0.28	0.06	0.37
July 2009	0.21	0.07	0.34
August 2009	0.16	0.16	0.31
September 2009	0.26	0.21	0.25
October 2009	0.32	0.69	0.22
November 2009	0.33	0.88	0.15
December 2009	0.38	1.00	0.13
January 2010	0.35	1.26	0.08
February 2010	0.24	1.40	0.05
March 2010	0.13	1.63	0.00
April 2010	-0.07	1.68	-0.03
May 2010	-0.10	1.77	-0.04
June 2010	-0.15	1.73	-0.04
July 2010	-0.17	1.65	-0.03
August 2010	-0.13	1.57	-0.04
September 2010	-0.21	1.50	-0.01
October 2010	-0.27	1.33	0.01
November 2010	-0.24	1.30	0.06
December 2010	-0.26	1.23	0.08
January 2011	-0.19	1.20	0.12
February 2011	-0.14	1.21	0.15
March 2011	-0.15	1.19	0.17
April 2011	-0.01	1.21	0.19
May 2011	0.08	1.23	0.20
June 2011	0.15	1.21	0.22
July 2011	0.22	1.26	0.25
August 2011	0.23	1.31	0.29
September 2011	0.20	1.33	0.31
October 2011	0.25	1.14	0.33
November 2011	0.28	1.19	0.34
December 2011	0.31	1.29	0.35
January 2012	0.30	1.38	0.36
February 2012	0.25	1.39	0.36
March 2012	0.29	1.35	0.38
April 2012	0.22	1.33	0.40
May 2012	0.15	1.25	0.40
June 2012	0.09	1.31	0.39
July 2012	0.07	1.30	0.39
August 2012	-0.00	1.24	0.38
September 2012	0.04	1.25	0.40
October 2012	0.03	1.44	0.40
November 2012	-0.01	1.38	0.40
December 2012	-0.06	1.34	0.39
January 2013	-0.07	1.26	0.39
February 2013	-0.10	1.25	0.40
March 2013	-0.18	1.26	0.40
April 2013	-0.19	1.16	0.39
May 2013	-0.21	1.19	0.40
June 2013	-0.18	1.21	0.42
July 2013	-0.18	1.24	0.41
August 2013	-0.16	1.25	0.42
September 2013	-0.18	1.28	0.42
October 2013	-0.21	1.24	0.42
November 2013	-0.22	1.29	0.43
December 2013	-0.22	1.31	0.45
January 2014	-0.26	1.25	0.46
February 2014	-0.26	1.19	0.46
March 2014	-0.24	1.20	0.47
April 2014	-0.21	1.29	0.48
May 2014	-0.19	1.32	0.48
June 2014	-0.17	1.24	0.49
July 2014	-0.16	1.25	0.50
August 2014	-0.19	1.22	0.49
September 2014	-0.16	1.20	0.50
October 2014	-0.14	1.10	0.50
November 2014	-0.21	1.08	0.50
December 2014	-0.21	1.06	0.49
January 2015	-0.26	0.96	0.49
February 2015	-0.19	0.95	0.50
March 2015	-0.15	0.90	0.51
April 2015	-0.13	0.89	0.51
May 2015	-0.12	0.84	0.51
June 2015	-0.18	0.89	0.53
July 2015	-0.22	0.85	0.54
August 2015	-0.21	0.87	0.54
September 2015	-0.19	0.86	0.55
October 2015	-0.24	0.85	0.55
November 2015	-0.19	0.83	0.54
December 2015	-0.18	0.80	0.55
January 2016	-0.14	0.97	0.55
February 2016	-0.14	1.03	0.55
March 2016	-0.18	1.08	0.54
April 2016	-0.15	1.11	0.55
May 2016	-0.19	1.18	0.56
June 2016	-0.21	1.19	0.56
July 2016	-0.21	1.24	0.56
August 2016	-0.15	1.26	0.57
September 2016	-0.15	1.24	0.58
October 2016	-0.13	1.30	0.59
November 2016	-0.21	1.31	0.61
December 2016	-0.22	1.36	0.62
January 2017	-0.13	1.37	0.62
February 2017	-0.14	1.38	0.62
March 2017	-0.15	1.20	0.61
April 2017	-0.23	1.26	0.60
May 2017	-0.24	1.19	0.58
June 2017	-0.19	1.18	0.58
July 2017	-0.16	1.08	0.58
August 2017	-0.23	1.07	0.59
September 2017	-0.31	1.16	0.57
October 2017	-0.24	1.21	0.57
November 2017	-0.22	1.19	0.56
December 2017	-0.21	1.21	0.57
January 2018	-0.19	1.23	0.57
February 2018	-0.20	1.28	0.56
March 2018	-0.16	1.48	0.57
April 2018	-0.09	1.37	0.59
May 2018	-0.03	1.40	0.59
June 2018	-0.09	1.42	0.58
July 2018	-0.11	1.50	0.59
August 2018	-0.16	1.46	0.58
September 2018	-0.12	1.49	0.57
October 2018	-0.14	1.42	0.56
November 2018	-0.05	1.47	0.57
December 2018	-0.06	1.52	0.55
January 2019	-0.08	1.35	0.55
February 2019	-0.13	1.28	0.57
March 2019	-0.17	1.19	0.58
April 2019	-0.23	1.27	0.58
May 2019	-0.21	1.19	0.58
June 2019	-0.10	1.18	0.59
July 2019	-0.13	1.19	0.59
August 2019	-0.02	1.18	0.58
September 2019	-0.05	1.10	0.59
October 2019	-0.08	1.13	0.57
November 2019	-0.13	1.03	0.56
December 2019	-0.13	1.06	0.57
January 2020	-0.20	1.17	0.58
February 2020	-0.11	1.20	0.57
March 2020	-0.15	1.09	0.56
April 2020	-0.31	0.73	0.54
May 2020	-0.38	0.82	0.55
June 2020	-0.42	0.85	0.51
July 2020	-0.22	0.91	0.50
August 2020	-0.07	0.98	0.48
September 2020	-0.08	1.10	0.45
October 2020	-0.10	1.04	0.45
November 2020	-0.01	1.04	0.42
December 2020	0.05	1.12	0.40
January 2021	0.13	1.23	0.38
February 2021	0.04	1.34	0.38
March 2021	0.17	1.72	0.37
April 2021	0.67	2.15	0.37
May 2021	1.00	2.22	0.37
June 2021	1.16	2.32	0.41
July 2021	1.09	2.44	0.42
August 2021	1.07	2.45	0.44
September 2021	1.13	2.38	0.49
October 2021	1.40	2.49	0.53
November 2021	1.50	2.76	0.59
December 2021	1.66	2.83	0.63
January 2022	1.84	2.74	0.69
February 2022	2.02	2.71	0.72
March 2022	1.98	2.70	0.76
April 2022	1.68	2.68	0.81
May 2022	1.50	2.63	0.86
June 2022	1.49	2.67	0.92
July 2022	1.43	2.44	0.98
August 2022	1.46	2.57	1.05
September 2022	1.50	2.72	1.12
October 2022	1.22	2.82	1.15
November 2022	1.02	2.74	1.20
December 2022	0.82	2.65	1.27
January 2023	0.68	2.77	1.30
February 2023	0.58	2.79	1.34
March 2023	0.64	2.66	1.34
April 2023	0.64	2.62	1.35
May 2023	0.64	2.57	1.34
June 2023	0.43	2.43	1.31
July 2023	0.29	2.52	1.28
August 2023	0.12	2.29	1.23
September 2023	0.04	2.29	1.19
October 2023	0.08	2.09	1.16
November 2023	0.05	1.95	1.12
December 2023	-0.02	1.85	1.06
January 2024	-0.15	2.00	1.03
February 2024	-0.10	1.90	0.99
March 2024	-0.15	1.95	0.98
April 2024	-0.15	1.94	0.96
May 2024	-0.29	1.89	0.94

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Housing rents

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	PCE housing services	Apartment List single-family and multifamily units	Zillow single-family units	RealPage multifamily units	CoreLogic single-family detached units
January 2005	2.68	ND	ND	2.60	2.74
February 2005	2.74	ND	ND	2.36	2.39
March 2005	2.69	ND	ND	2.11	2.79
April 2005	2.53	ND	ND	2.42	2.68
May 2005	2.54	ND	ND	2.71	2.55
June 2005	2.44	ND	ND	3.01	2.52
July 2005	2.48	ND	ND	3.15	2.58
August 2005	2.40	ND	ND	3.33	3.04
September 2005	2.47	ND	ND	3.53	4.04
October 2005	2.52	ND	ND	3.52	4.44
November 2005	2.64	ND	ND	3.53	4.64
December 2005	2.64	ND	ND	3.54	4.57
January 2006	2.64	ND	ND	3.75	4.34
February 2006	2.67	ND	ND	3.96	5.04
March 2006	2.82	ND	ND	4.14	4.98
April 2006	3.02	ND	ND	4.14	5.45
May 2006	3.24	ND	ND	4.09	5.06
June 2006	3.55	ND	ND	4.06	4.75
July 2006	3.68	ND	ND	4.16	4.39
August 2006	3.86	ND	ND	4.25	3.97
September 2006	3.95	ND	ND	4.36	3.30
October 2006	4.13	ND	ND	4.43	2.44
November 2006	4.17	ND	ND	4.56	2.26
December 2006	4.29	ND	ND	4.69	1.85
January 2007	4.29	ND	ND	4.61	1.91
February 2007	4.29	ND	ND	4.55	1.35
March 2007	4.22	ND	ND	4.46	1.35
April 2007	4.03	ND	ND	4.50	1.34
May 2007	3.71	ND	ND	4.53	1.45
June 2007	3.46	ND	ND	4.54	1.38
July 2007	3.29	ND	ND	4.54	1.30
August 2007	3.20	ND	ND	4.57	1.42
September 2007	3.16	ND	ND	4.61	1.56
October 2007	3.06	ND	ND	4.55	1.82
November 2007	3.09	ND	ND	4.49	1.66
December 2007	3.05	ND	ND	4.44	1.77
January 2008	2.97	ND	ND	4.37	1.70
February 2008	2.83	ND	ND	4.37	1.56
March 2008	2.77	ND	ND	4.26	1.13
April 2008	2.81	ND	ND	4.18	0.62
May 2008	2.80	ND	ND	4.10	0.48
June 2008	2.85	ND	ND	3.97	0.57
July 2008	2.83	ND	ND	3.76	0.34
August 2008	2.75	ND	ND	3.59	0.06
September 2008	2.71	ND	ND	3.43	-0.22
October 2008	2.60	ND	ND	3.07	-0.55
November 2008	2.53	ND	ND	2.72	-1.10
December 2008	2.34	ND	ND	2.37	-1.64
January 2009	2.35	ND	ND	1.68	-2.22
February 2009	2.30	ND	ND	0.93	-2.52
March 2009	2.31	ND	ND	0.25	-3.03
April 2009	2.24	ND	ND	-0.47	-3.45
May 2009	2.27	ND	ND	-1.20	-3.77
June 2009	2.04	ND	ND	-1.96	-4.07
July 2009	1.83	ND	ND	-2.24	-3.94
August 2009	1.71	ND	ND	-2.62	-4.02
September 2009	1.37	ND	ND	-2.96	-3.79
October 2009	1.15	ND	ND	-2.82	-3.47
November 2009	0.78	ND	ND	-2.72	-2.52
December 2009	0.68	ND	ND	-2.63	-2.01
January 2010	0.41	ND	ND	-1.89	-1.33
February 2010	0.26	ND	ND	-1.19	-1.05
March 2010	0.01	ND	ND	-0.72	0.07
April 2010	-0.14	ND	ND	-0.14	0.94
May 2010	-0.24	ND	ND	0.48	1.59
June 2010	-0.20	ND	ND	1.07	1.99
July 2010	-0.14	ND	ND	1.25	2.19
August 2010	-0.20	ND	ND	1.45	2.43
September 2010	-0.03	ND	ND	1.24	2.42
October 2010	0.06	ND	ND	1.59	2.60
November 2010	0.30	ND	ND	1.68	2.41
December 2010	0.44	ND	ND	2.11	2.63
January 2011	0.63	ND	ND	2.19	2.63
February 2011	0.79	ND	ND	2.21	3.19
March 2011	0.95	ND	ND	2.45	3.23
April 2011	1.05	ND	ND	2.51	3.15
May 2011	1.12	ND	ND	2.39	2.94
June 2011	1.21	ND	ND	2.68	2.97
July 2011	1.38	ND	ND	3.02	2.95
August 2011	1.61	ND	ND	3.17	2.92
September 2011	1.69	ND	ND	3.71	2.82
October 2011	1.85	ND	ND	3.54	2.81
November 2011	1.88	ND	ND	3.67	3.02
December 2011	1.96	ND	ND	3.06	3.17
January 2012	2.01	ND	ND	3.09	3.23
February 2012	2.01	ND	ND	3.14	2.94
March 2012	2.11	ND	ND	3.08	2.71
April 2012	2.24	ND	ND	3.28	2.70
May 2012	2.25	ND	ND	3.60	2.82
June 2012	2.21	ND	ND	3.47	2.89
July 2012	2.16	ND	ND	2.91	2.91
August 2012	2.14	ND	ND	3.20	3.02
September 2012	2.22	ND	ND	3.34	3.17
October 2012	2.23	ND	ND	3.27	3.35
November 2012	2.23	ND	ND	3.15	3.28
December 2012	2.20	ND	ND	3.51	3.30
January 2013	2.19	ND	ND	3.23	3.25
February 2013	2.25	ND	ND	3.22	3.38
March 2013	2.22	ND	ND	3.48	3.53
April 2013	2.19	ND	ND	3.20	3.64
May 2013	2.26	ND	ND	3.30	3.73
June 2013	2.35	ND	ND	3.42	3.69
July 2013	2.32	ND	ND	3.82	3.73
August 2013	2.39	ND	ND	3.74	3.75
September 2013	2.35	ND	ND	3.81	3.73
October 2013	2.34	ND	ND	4.09	3.66
November 2013	2.41	ND	ND	4.28	3.71
December 2013	2.53	ND	ND	4.50	3.69
January 2014	2.58	ND	ND	4.99	3.72
February 2014	2.58	ND	ND	4.97	3.65
March 2014	2.67	ND	ND	5.10	3.63
April 2014	2.71	ND	ND	5.51	3.73
May 2014	2.73	ND	ND	5.62	3.75
June 2014	2.75	ND	ND	5.80	3.91
July 2014	2.85	ND	ND	6.25	3.95
August 2014	2.80	ND	ND	6.33	4.03
September 2014	2.85	ND	ND	6.32	4.10
October 2014	2.87	ND	ND	6.42	3.98
November 2014	2.89	ND	ND	6.78	3.94
December 2014	2.80	ND	ND	6.82	3.91
January 2015	2.85	ND	ND	6.58	4.25
February 2015	2.93	ND	ND	6.74	4.51
March 2015	2.94	ND	ND	6.46	4.59
April 2015	2.97	ND	ND	6.61	4.45
May 2015	2.98	ND	ND	6.41	4.35
June 2015	3.10	ND	ND	6.60	4.34
July 2015	3.14	ND	ND	6.49	4.40
August 2015	3.17	ND	ND	6.65	4.30
September 2015	3.22	ND	ND	6.79	4.34
October 2015	3.23	ND	ND	6.45	4.44
November 2015	3.18	ND	ND	6.15	4.49
December 2015	3.23	ND	ND	6.06	4.54
January 2016	3.25	ND	4.88	6.11	4.51
February 2016	3.22	ND	4.70	5.93	4.71
March 2016	3.19	ND	4.45	5.81	4.67
April 2016	3.21	ND	4.25	5.44	4.63
May 2016	3.31	ND	4.20	5.30	4.57
June 2016	3.28	ND	4.17	4.97	4.28
July 2016	3.28	ND	4.10	4.43	3.88
August 2016	3.32	ND	3.98	3.38	3.68
September 2016	3.39	ND	3.84	3.32	3.47
October 2016	3.47	ND	3.71	3.29	3.45
November 2016	3.58	ND	3.58	2.94	3.32
December 2016	3.64	ND	3.45	2.68	3.05
January 2017	3.61	ND	3.53	2.49	2.88
February 2017	3.62	ND	3.80	2.44	2.64
March 2017	3.60	ND	4.22	2.66	2.86
April 2017	3.52	ND	4.42	2.58	3.04
May 2017	3.43	ND	4.53	2.61	3.02
June 2017	3.41	ND	4.54	2.77	3.05
July 2017	3.39	ND	4.59	2.60	3.08
August 2017	3.45	ND	4.59	3.15	3.15
September 2017	3.37	ND	4.75	2.74	3.17
October 2017	3.36	ND	4.83	2.69	3.25
November 2017	3.30	ND	4.97	2.98	3.38
December 2017	3.35	ND	5.03	2.98	3.62
January 2018	3.38	1.68	4.97	2.98	3.57
February 2018	3.29	1.87	4.78	3.13	3.57
March 2018	3.37	2.23	4.55	3.06	3.27
April 2018	3.47	2.40	4.45	3.19	3.34
May 2018	3.49	2.00	4.39	3.48	3.34
June 2018	3.43	2.17	4.39	3.39	3.49
July 2018	3.47	2.34	4.39	3.96	3.50
August 2018	3.42	2.98	4.46	4.23	3.55
September 2018	3.37	3.08	4.37	4.85	3.50
October 2018	3.34	3.09	4.41	5.06	3.42
November 2018	3.39	3.11	4.45	4.84	3.44
December 2018	3.28	3.21	4.57	5.00	3.57
January 2019	3.26	3.40	4.53	5.03	3.62
February 2019	3.37	3.57	4.49	4.82	3.51
March 2019	3.41	3.37	4.44	4.97	3.46
April 2019	3.45	3.34	4.45	5.05	3.29
May 2019	3.43	3.21	4.50	4.80	3.24
June 2019	3.51	3.10	4.53	4.60	3.12
July 2019	3.46	2.99	4.56	4.33	3.19
August 2019	3.42	2.89	4.56	4.28	3.21
September 2019	3.48	2.72	4.61	3.78	3.30
October 2019	3.38	2.56	4.59	3.46	3.15
November 2019	3.32	2.48	4.49	3.54	3.12
December 2019	3.33	2.49	4.35	3.59	3.04
January 2020	3.39	2.58	4.38	3.56	3.04
February 2020	3.34	2.57	4.46	3.58	3.12
March 2020	3.26	2.38	4.52	3.44	3.09
April 2020	3.11	1.05	4.31	2.01	2.47
May 2020	3.09	-0.26	4.09	0.77	1.91
June 2020	2.86	-1.46	4.04	0.08	1.77
July 2020	2.82	-1.54	4.34	-0.21	2.47
August 2020	2.70	-1.45	4.68	-1.06	3.21
September 2020	2.50	-1.11	5.12	-1.43	4.04
October 2020	2.51	-0.95	5.53	-1.28	5.14
November 2020	2.30	-0.86	5.99	-1.00	6.07
December 2020	2.19	-0.95	6.43	-1.08	6.70
January 2021	2.03	-0.69	6.89	-0.87	6.95
February 2021	2.04	-0.26	7.29	-0.74	7.18
March 2021	2.01	0.52	7.80	-0.42	7.76
April 2021	2.03	2.50	8.66	1.44	9.01
May 2021	2.09	5.12	9.72	3.64	10.43
June 2021	2.30	8.45	10.66	5.76	11.64
July 2021	2.37	10.93	11.18	7.74	12.21
August 2021	2.51	13.32	11.68	10.23	12.67
September 2021	2.84	15.74	12.06	12.48	12.98
October 2021	3.08	17.10	12.42	13.70	13.15
November 2021	3.45	17.79	12.72	13.84	12.99
December 2021	3.71	17.76	12.95	14.62	13.07
January 2022	4.02	17.61	13.05	15.18	13.40
February 2022	4.27	17.30	13.19	16.01	13.77
March 2022	4.49	17.02	13.20	16.21	13.80
April 2022	4.77	16.60	13.16	16.15	13.80
May 2022	5.09	15.76	12.70	16.11	13.43
June 2022	5.51	14.30	12.21	15.23	12.61
July 2022	5.90	12.35	11.61	14.07	11.54
August 2022	6.36	10.08	10.92	12.64	10.21
September 2022	6.76	7.25	10.14	11.05	8.91
October 2022	6.99	5.41	9.49	10.01	7.29
November 2022	7.27	4.07	8.82	9.61	6.24
December 2022	7.69	3.49	8.40	8.86	5.15
January 2023	7.92	2.97	7.85	7.94	4.20
February 2023	8.17	2.65	7.35	6.92	3.36
March 2023	8.20	2.34	6.81	6.41	2.84
April 2023	8.27	1.66	6.33	5.63	2.47
May 2023	8.19	0.86	6.00	4.36	2.26
June 2023	7.93	-0.14	5.53	3.56	2.35
July 2023	7.74	-0.84	5.27	2.65	2.27
August 2023	7.42	-1.32	5.09	2.18	2.19
September 2023	7.15	-1.39	5.10	1.87	2.05
October 2023	6.92	-1.27	4.99	1.45	2.07
November 2023	6.70	-1.07	5.02	1.30	2.30
December 2023	6.31	-0.93	4.81	1.17	2.52
January 2024	6.13	-0.86	4.91	1.41	2.97
February 2024	5.85	-0.86	4.90	1.46	3.28
March 2024	5.79	-0.79	5.02	1.35	3.33
April 2024	5.64	-0.71	4.85	1.40	3.25
May 2024	5.54	-0.71	4.72	1.59	ND
June 2024	ND	-0.70	ND	ND	ND

Note: CoreLogic data extend through April 2024, Zillow data start in January 2016, and Apartment List data start in January 2018 and extend through June 2024. Zillow, CoreLogic, Apartment List, and RealPage measure market-rate rents–-that is, rents for a new lease by a new tenant. PCE is personal consumption expenditures.

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Figure 8. Measures of inflation expectations

Monthly
Percent

Period	Michigan survey next 12 months	Michigan survey next 5 to 10 years
January 2010	2.80	2.90
February 2010	2.70	2.70
March 2010	2.70	2.70
April 2010	2.90	2.70
May 2010	3.20	2.90
June 2010	2.80	2.80
July 2010	2.70	2.90
August 2010	2.70	2.80
September 2010	2.20	2.70
October 2010	2.70	2.80
November 2010	3.00	2.80
December 2010	3.00	2.80
January 2011	3.40	2.90
February 2011	3.40	2.90
March 2011	4.60	3.20
April 2011	4.60	2.90
May 2011	4.10	2.90
June 2011	3.80	3.00
July 2011	3.40	2.90
August 2011	3.50	2.90
September 2011	3.30	2.80
October 2011	3.20	2.70
November 2011	3.20	2.70
December 2011	3.10	2.70
January 2012	3.30	2.70
February 2012	3.30	2.90
March 2012	3.90	3.00
April 2012	3.20	2.90
May 2012	3.00	2.70
June 2012	3.10	2.80
July 2012	3.00	2.70
August 2012	3.60	3.00
September 2012	3.30	2.80
October 2012	3.10	2.70
November 2012	3.10	2.80
December 2012	3.20	2.90
January 2013	3.30	2.90
February 2013	3.30	3.00
March 2013	3.20	2.80
April 2013	3.10	2.90
May 2013	3.10	2.90
June 2013	3.00	2.90
July 2013	3.10	2.80
August 2013	3.00	2.90
September 2013	3.30	3.00
October 2013	3.00	2.80
November 2013	2.90	2.90
December 2013	3.00	2.70
January 2014	3.10	2.90
February 2014	3.20	2.90
March 2014	3.20	2.90
April 2014	3.20	2.90
May 2014	3.30	2.80
June 2014	3.10	2.90
July 2014	3.30	2.70
August 2014	3.20	2.90
September 2014	3.00	2.80
October 2014	2.90	2.80
November 2014	2.80	2.60
December 2014	2.80	2.80
January 2015	2.50	2.80
February 2015	2.80	2.70
March 2015	3.00	2.80
April 2015	2.60	2.60
May 2015	2.80	2.80
June 2015	2.70	2.60
July 2015	2.80	2.80
August 2015	2.80	2.70
September 2015	2.80	2.70
October 2015	2.70	2.50
November 2015	2.70	2.60
December 2015	2.60	2.60
January 2016	2.50	2.70
February 2016	2.50	2.50
March 2016	2.70	2.70
April 2016	2.80	2.50
May 2016	2.40	2.50
June 2016	2.60	2.60
July 2016	2.70	2.60
August 2016	2.50	2.50
September 2016	2.40	2.60
October 2016	2.40	2.40
November 2016	2.40	2.60
December 2016	2.20	2.30
January 2017	2.60	2.60
February 2017	2.70	2.50
March 2017	2.50	2.40
April 2017	2.50	2.40
May 2017	2.60	2.40
June 2017	2.60	2.50
July 2017	2.60	2.60
August 2017	2.60	2.50
September 2017	2.70	2.50
October 2017	2.40	2.50
November 2017	2.50	2.40
December 2017	2.70	2.40
January 2018	2.70	2.50
February 2018	2.70	2.50
March 2018	2.80	2.50
April 2018	2.70	2.50
May 2018	2.80	2.50
June 2018	3.00	2.60
July 2018	2.90	2.40
August 2018	3.00	2.60
September 2018	2.70	2.50
October 2018	2.90	2.40
November 2018	2.80	2.60
December 2018	2.70	2.50
January 2019	2.70	2.60
February 2019	2.60	2.30
March 2019	2.50	2.50
April 2019	2.50	2.30
May 2019	2.90	2.60
June 2019	2.70	2.30
July 2019	2.60	2.50
August 2019	2.70	2.60
September 2019	2.80	2.40
October 2019	2.50	2.30
November 2019	2.50	2.50
December 2019	2.30	2.20
January 2020	2.50	2.50
February 2020	2.40	2.30
March 2020	2.20	2.30
April 2020	2.10	2.50
May 2020	3.20	2.70
June 2020	3.00	2.50
July 2020	3.00	2.60
August 2020	3.10	2.70
September 2020	2.60	2.70
October 2020	2.60	2.40
November 2020	2.80	2.50
December 2020	2.50	2.50
January 2021	3.00	2.70
February 2021	3.30	2.70
March 2021	3.10	2.80
April 2021	3.40	2.70
May 2021	4.60	3.00
June 2021	4.20	2.80
July 2021	4.70	2.80
August 2021	4.60	2.90
September 2021	4.60	3.00
October 2021	4.80	2.90
November 2021	4.90	3.00
December 2021	4.80	2.90
January 2022	4.90	3.10
February 2022	4.90	3.00
March 2022	5.40	3.00
April 2022	5.40	3.00
May 2022	5.30	3.00
June 2022	5.30	3.10
July 2022	5.20	2.90
August 2022	4.80	2.90
September 2022	4.70	2.70
October 2022	5.00	2.90
November 2022	5.00	3.00
December 2022	4.30	3.00
January 2023	3.90	2.90
February 2023	4.20	2.90
March 2023	3.60	2.90
April 2023	4.70	3.00
May 2023	4.20	3.10
June 2023	3.30	3.00
July 2023	3.40	3.00
August 2023	3.50	3.00
September 2023	3.20	2.80
October 2023	4.20	3.00
November 2023	4.50	3.20
December 2023	3.10	2.90
January 2024	2.90	2.90
February 2024	3.00	2.90
March 2024	2.90	2.80
April 2024	3.20	3.00
May 2024	3.30	3.00
June 2024	3.00	3.00

Note: The data for the Michigan survey are monthly and extend through June 2024. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data are quarterly and extend through 2024:Q2.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, SPF.

Figure 8. Measures of inflation expectations

Quarterly
Percent

Period	SPF 10 years ahead	SPF 6 to 10 years ahead
2010:Q1	2.10	2.30
2010:Q2	2.15	2.30
2010:Q3	2.10	2.30
2010:Q4	2.00	2.30
2011:Q1	2.10	2.20
2011:Q2	2.27	2.40
2011:Q3	2.25	2.25
2011:Q4	2.15	2.25
2012:Q1	2.15	2.20
2012:Q2	2.20	2.18
2012:Q3	2.20	2.20
2012:Q4	2.10	2.20
2013:Q1	2.00	2.10
2013:Q2	2.00	2.10
2013:Q3	2.00	2.15
2013:Q4	2.00	2.30
2014:Q1	2.00	2.20
2014:Q2	2.00	2.10
2014:Q3	2.00	2.10
2014:Q4	2.00	2.10
2015:Q1	2.00	2.00
2015:Q2	1.98	2.00
2015:Q3	2.00	2.10
2015:Q4	1.90	2.10
2016:Q1	1.97	2.05
2016:Q2	2.00	2.01
2016:Q3	2.00	2.00
2016:Q4	2.00	2.05
2017:Q1	2.10	2.05
2017:Q2	2.09	2.03
2017:Q3	2.00	2.10
2017:Q4	2.00	2.00
2018:Q1	2.00	2.10
2018:Q2	2.00	2.08
2018:Q3	2.00	2.07
2018:Q4	2.00	2.02
2019:Q1	2.00	2.00
2019:Q2	2.00	2.00
2019:Q3	2.00	2.04
2019:Q4	2.00	2.00
2020:Q1	2.00	2.00
2020:Q2	1.86	2.00
2020:Q3	1.85	2.00
2020:Q4	1.90	2.10
2021:Q1	2.03	2.08
2021:Q2	2.10	2.05
2021:Q3	2.20	2.00
2021:Q4	2.30	2.00
2022:Q1	2.20	2.00
2022:Q2	2.40	2.00
2022:Q3	2.45	2.04
2022:Q4	2.58	2.00
2023:Q1	2.15	2.00
2023:Q2	2.20	2.00
2023:Q3	2.20	2.00
2023:Q4	2.22	2.00
2024:Q1	2.00	2.00
2024:Q2	2.10	2.00

Note: The data for the Michigan survey are monthly and extend through June 2024. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data are quarterly and extend through 2024:Q2.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, SPF.

Return to text

Figure 9. Inflation compensation implied by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Series: 5-to-10-year and 5-year

Horizon: January 4, 2016, to June 28, 2024

Description: A line chart with two curves over January 4, 2016, to June 28, 2024. Units are percent, and the data are daily. The 5-to-10-year series begins around 1.7 in January 2016. It then steps down gradually to a bit below 1.5 in June 2016, rises to 2 in January 2017, and drops again to 1.8 in June 2017. The series then grows to about 2 in January 2018, moderates to about 1.5 by the end of February 2020, and then falls below 1 in March 2020 before returning to about 1.5 in April 2020. The series then steadily climbs to about 2.5 by May 2021 before edging down below 2.3 in September 2021. The series then fluctuates between approximately 2 and 2.5 through mid-April 2022 before briefly hitting close to 2.8 in late April, dropping to just above 2 in late May, and returning to just above 2.3 in mid-June 2022. The series then fluctuates between just below 2 and about 2.5 through May 2023 before hitting close to 2.3 in June 2023. The series then falls slightly and fluctuates while increasing to above 2.5 in September 2023 and remaining there through November 2023. It then dips to about 2.1 in December 2023 before increasing again, climbing to around 2.4 by February 2024. The series fluctuates before landing above 2.2 at the beginning of March. The series then oscillates but increases steadily to just above 2.4 in April 2024. It then fluctuates above 2.3 before peaking again above 2.4 in May 2024. The series then fluctuates, finishing at slightly below 2.3 at the end of June 2024.

From early 2016 through February 2020, both series are nearly identical. The 5-year series subsequently falls to just above 0 by mid-March 2020 before jumping over 2.7 in May 2021, surpassing the 5-to-10-year series. From there, the series fluctuates slightly, ramping up to more than 3 in November 2021. The series retreats slightly to about 2.8 by December 2021 and remains around there through most of February 2022. In late February 2022, the series begins to rise, peaking around 3.5 in late March 2022. The series drops briefly to below 3.3 in early April before increasing again to nearly 3.5 in late April 2022. From there, it decreases to just below 3 in mid-May and remains roughly between 2.8 and just above 3 through mid-June 2022. The series then falls to slightly above 2 by the end of September 2022 before rebounding to over 2.5 in late October 2022. The series then follows the 5-to-10-year series closely until early March 2023, when it rises to nearly 2.8. Over the next three months, the series then declines slowly past the 5-to-10-year series to just above 2 by mid-June 2023. The series then increases and peaks around 2.4 by mid-October 2023. The series then decreases to just above 2 in December 2023 before increasing to around 2.3 by February 2024. The series then fluctuates around 2.3 until rising slightly above 2.4 by April 2024. It then fluctuates between about 2.2 and 2.4 before landing above 2.3 at the end of May 2024 and then decreasing to just above 2.1 by June 2024. The series increases and ends around 2.3 in late June 2024.

Note: The data are at a business-day frequency and are estimated from smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yield curves.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure 10. Nonfarm payroll employment

Monthly
Thousands of jobs

Period	Change in total nonfarm employment
April 2021	559.0
May 2021	533.7
June 2021	516.0
July 2021	722.7
August 2021	727.3
September 2021	628.0
October 2021	601.7
November 2021	657.0
December 2021	685.7
January 2022	482.7
February 2022	559.7
March 2022	535.7
April 2022	542.7
May 2022	350.7
June 2022	326.0
July 2022	465.3
August 2022	451.0
September 2022	396.0
October 2022	286.3
November 2022	291.3
December 2022	251.7
January 2023	292.0
February 2023	301.7
March 2023	305.0
April 2023	237.0
May 2023	242.3
June 2023	273.7
July 2023	242.3
August 2023	211.3
September 2023	213.3
October 2023	207.0
November 2023	197.7
December 2023	212.3
January 2024	242.7
February 2024	260.7
March 2024	267.3
April 2024	237.0
May 2024	249.0

Note: The data shown are a 3-month moving average of the change in nonfarm payroll employment.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 11. Civilian unemployment rate

Monthly
Percent

Period	Rate
January 2005	5.3
February 2005	5.4
March 2005	5.2
April 2005	5.2
May 2005	5.1
June 2005	5.0
July 2005	5.0
August 2005	4.9
September 2005	5.0
October 2005	5.0
November 2005	5.0
December 2005	4.9
January 2006	4.7
February 2006	4.8
March 2006	4.7
April 2006	4.7
May 2006	4.6
June 2006	4.6
July 2006	4.7
August 2006	4.7
September 2006	4.5
October 2006	4.4
November 2006	4.5
December 2006	4.4
January 2007	4.6
February 2007	4.5
March 2007	4.4
April 2007	4.5
May 2007	4.4
June 2007	4.6
July 2007	4.7
August 2007	4.6
September 2007	4.7
October 2007	4.7
November 2007	4.7
December 2007	5.0
January 2008	5.0
February 2008	4.9
March 2008	5.1
April 2008	5.0
May 2008	5.4
June 2008	5.6
July 2008	5.8
August 2008	6.1
September 2008	6.1
October 2008	6.5
November 2008	6.8
December 2008	7.3
January 2009	7.8
February 2009	8.3
March 2009	8.7
April 2009	9.0
May 2009	9.4
June 2009	9.5
July 2009	9.5
August 2009	9.6
September 2009	9.8
October 2009	10.0
November 2009	9.9
December 2009	9.9
January 2010	9.8
February 2010	9.8
March 2010	9.9
April 2010	9.9
May 2010	9.6
June 2010	9.4
July 2010	9.4
August 2010	9.5
September 2010	9.5
October 2010	9.4
November 2010	9.8
December 2010	9.3
January 2011	9.1
February 2011	9.0
March 2011	9.0
April 2011	9.1
May 2011	9.0
June 2011	9.1
July 2011	9.0
August 2011	9.0
September 2011	9.0
October 2011	8.8
November 2011	8.6
December 2011	8.5
January 2012	8.3
February 2012	8.3
March 2012	8.2
April 2012	8.2
May 2012	8.2
June 2012	8.2
July 2012	8.2
August 2012	8.1
September 2012	7.8
October 2012	7.8
November 2012	7.7
December 2012	7.9
January 2013	8.0
February 2013	7.7
March 2013	7.5
April 2013	7.6
May 2013	7.5
June 2013	7.5
July 2013	7.3
August 2013	7.2
September 2013	7.2
October 2013	7.2
November 2013	6.9
December 2013	6.7
January 2014	6.6
February 2014	6.7
March 2014	6.7
April 2014	6.2
May 2014	6.3
June 2014	6.1
July 2014	6.2
August 2014	6.1
September 2014	5.9
October 2014	5.7
November 2014	5.8
December 2014	5.6
January 2015	5.7
February 2015	5.5
March 2015	5.4
April 2015	5.4
May 2015	5.6
June 2015	5.3
July 2015	5.2
August 2015	5.1
September 2015	5.0
October 2015	5.0
November 2015	5.1
December 2015	5.0
January 2016	4.8
February 2016	4.9
March 2016	5.0
April 2016	5.1
May 2016	4.8
June 2016	4.9
July 2016	4.8
August 2016	4.9
September 2016	5.0
October 2016	4.9
November 2016	4.7
December 2016	4.7
January 2017	4.7
February 2017	4.6
March 2017	4.4
April 2017	4.4
May 2017	4.4
June 2017	4.3
July 2017	4.3
August 2017	4.4
September 2017	4.3
October 2017	4.2
November 2017	4.2
December 2017	4.1
January 2018	4.0
February 2018	4.1
March 2018	4.0
April 2018	4.0
May 2018	3.8
June 2018	4.0
July 2018	3.8
August 2018	3.8
September 2018	3.7
October 2018	3.8
November 2018	3.8
December 2018	3.9
January 2019	4.0
February 2019	3.8
March 2019	3.8
April 2019	3.7
May 2019	3.6
June 2019	3.6
July 2019	3.7
August 2019	3.6
September 2019	3.5
October 2019	3.6
November 2019	3.6
December 2019	3.6
January 2020	3.6
February 2020	3.5
March 2020	4.4
April 2020	14.8
May 2020	13.2
June 2020	11.0
July 2020	10.2
August 2020	8.4
September 2020	7.8
October 2020	6.8
November 2020	6.7
December 2020	6.7
January 2021	6.4
February 2021	6.2
March 2021	6.1
April 2021	6.1
May 2021	5.8
June 2021	5.9
July 2021	5.4
August 2021	5.1
September 2021	4.7
October 2021	4.5
November 2021	4.1
December 2021	3.9
January 2022	4.0
February 2022	3.8
March 2022	3.6
April 2022	3.7
May 2022	3.6
June 2022	3.6
July 2022	3.5
August 2022	3.6
September 2022	3.5
October 2022	3.6
November 2022	3.6
December 2022	3.5
January 2023	3.4
February 2023	3.6
March 2023	3.5
April 2023	3.4
May 2023	3.7
June 2023	3.6
July 2023	3.5
August 2023	3.8
September 2023	3.8
October 2023	3.8
November 2023	3.7
December 2023	3.7
January 2024	3.7
February 2024	3.9
March 2024	3.8
April 2024	3.9
May 2024	4.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 12. Unemployment rate, by race and ethnicity

Monthly
Percent

Period	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	White	Asian
January 2005	10.6	6.0	4.5	4.1
February 2005	10.9	6.3	4.6	4.3
March 2005	10.5	5.8	4.5	3.9
April 2005	10.3	6.4	4.4	4.2
May 2005	10.1	6.0	4.4	4.2
June 2005	10.2	5.7	4.3	3.6
July 2005	9.2	5.5	4.2	4.8
August 2005	9.7	5.8	4.2	3.7
September 2005	9.4	6.4	4.4	4.3
October 2005	9.1	6.0	4.4	3.2
November 2005	10.6	6.1	4.3	3.6
December 2005	9.2	6.1	4.2	3.8
January 2006	8.9	5.5	4.1	3.0
February 2006	9.5	5.4	4.1	3.0
March 2006	9.5	5.2	4.0	3.5
April 2006	9.4	5.5	4.1	3.9
May 2006	8.7	5.0	4.1	3.3
June 2006	8.9	5.2	4.1	3.1
July 2006	9.5	5.2	4.1	2.4
August 2006	8.8	5.3	4.1	3.0
September 2006	9.0	5.5	3.9	3.0
October 2006	8.4	4.8	3.9	2.8
November 2006	8.5	5.1	4.0	3.1
December 2006	8.3	5.0	3.9	2.5
January 2007	7.9	5.5	4.2	3.1
February 2007	8.0	5.1	4.1	2.6
March 2007	8.4	5.0	3.8	3.0
April 2007	8.3	5.6	4.0	3.5
May 2007	8.3	5.8	3.9	3.2
June 2007	8.5	5.5	4.1	2.7
July 2007	8.1	5.9	4.2	2.7
August 2007	7.6	5.5	4.2	3.5
September 2007	8.0	5.9	4.2	3.4
October 2007	8.5	5.7	4.1	3.8
November 2007	8.5	5.9	4.2	3.6
December 2007	9.0	6.3	4.4	3.7
January 2008	9.1	6.3	4.4	3.1
February 2008	8.4	6.2	4.4	2.9
March 2008	9.2	6.9	4.5	3.6
April 2008	8.6	7.1	4.4	3.5
May 2008	9.6	6.9	4.8	4.1
June 2008	9.4	7.6	5.0	4.2
July 2008	10.0	7.5	5.2	3.7
August 2008	10.6	8.0	5.4	4.5
September 2008	11.3	8.0	5.4	4.0
October 2008	11.4	8.8	5.9	3.9
November 2008	11.5	8.7	6.2	4.8
December 2008	12.1	9.4	6.7	5.1
January 2009	12.7	10.1	7.1	6.1
February 2009	13.7	11.3	7.6	6.7
March 2009	13.7	11.7	8.0	6.5
April 2009	15.0	11.4	8.1	6.8
May 2009	15.0	12.3	8.5	7.0
June 2009	14.8	12.1	8.7	7.9
July 2009	14.8	12.5	8.7	8.1
August 2009	14.8	13.0	8.9	7.6
September 2009	15.3	12.6	8.9	7.6
October 2009	15.8	12.8	9.2	7.6
November 2009	15.7	12.4	9.2	7.2
December 2009	16.1	12.8	9.0	8.4
January 2010	16.5	12.9	8.8	8.3
February 2010	16.1	12.7	8.9	8.2
March 2010	16.8	12.9	8.9	7.6
April 2010	16.6	12.5	9.0	7.0
May 2010	15.5	12.0	8.7	7.8
June 2010	15.2	12.3	8.6	7.4
July 2010	15.6	12.2	8.5	7.9
August 2010	15.9	12.0	8.6	7.3
September 2010	16.0	12.3	8.6	6.6
October 2010	15.6	12.3	8.6	7.2
November 2010	16.2	12.9	8.9	7.5
December 2010	15.5	12.9	8.5	7.2
January 2011	15.8	12.3	8.1	6.8
February 2011	15.5	11.8	8.1	6.7
March 2011	15.8	11.6	8.0	7.3
April 2011	16.5	11.9	8.1	6.5
May 2011	16.3	11.6	7.9	7.2
June 2011	16.2	11.5	8.1	6.5
July 2011	15.9	11.2	8.0	7.4
August 2011	16.4	11.2	7.9	7.2
September 2011	15.9	11.2	7.9	8.0
October 2011	14.6	11.3	7.9	7.4
November 2011	15.6	11.2	7.7	6.4
December 2011	15.4	11.1	7.5	6.8
January 2012	13.6	10.7	7.4	6.7
February 2012	14.0	10.9	7.4	6.2
March 2012	14.0	10.6	7.3	6.4
April 2012	13.3	10.3	7.4	5.4
May 2012	13.5	10.9	7.4	5.5
June 2012	14.5	10.9	7.3	6.1
July 2012	14.2	10.2	7.3	5.9
August 2012	13.8	10.1	7.2	5.9
September 2012	13.6	9.7	7.0	4.9
October 2012	14.1	10.0	6.9	4.9
November 2012	13.3	9.9	6.8	6.3
December 2012	14.0	9.6	6.9	6.6
January 2013	13.7	9.7	7.1	6.4
February 2013	13.8	9.7	6.8	6.0
March 2013	13.0	9.3	6.7	5.1
April 2013	13.3	9.0	6.7	5.3
May 2013	13.4	9.0	6.7	4.5
June 2013	14.2	9.1	6.6	4.7
July 2013	12.6	9.4	6.5	5.3
August 2013	12.8	9.2	6.4	5.1
September 2013	13.0	8.8	6.3	5.4
October 2013	12.8	9.1	6.3	5.4
November 2013	12.3	8.7	6.1	5.2
December 2013	11.9	8.3	5.9	4.3
January 2014	12.1	8.3	5.7	4.7
February 2014	11.8	8.2	5.8	5.9
March 2014	12.1	7.9	5.8	5.5
April 2014	11.6	7.2	5.3	5.9
May 2014	11.4	7.7	5.4	5.7
June 2014	11.0	7.8	5.3	4.7
July 2014	11.6	7.7	5.3	4.2
August 2014	11.4	7.4	5.3	4.5
September 2014	11.0	6.8	5.1	4.4
October 2014	10.6	6.8	4.9	5.1
November 2014	10.9	6.6	5.0	4.8
December 2014	10.6	6.4	4.7	4.4
January 2015	10.3	6.7	4.9	4.0
February 2015	10.1	6.8	4.7	4.0
March 2015	9.9	6.8	4.8	3.2
April 2015	9.7	6.8	4.7	4.4
May 2015	10.3	6.8	4.8	4.1
June 2015	9.7	6.7	4.6	3.9
July 2015	9.1	6.9	4.5	3.9
August 2015	9.4	6.6	4.4	3.4
September 2015	9.3	6.2	4.4	3.5
October 2015	9.0	6.3	4.4	3.5
November 2015	9.4	6.4	4.4	3.9
December 2015	8.5	6.2	4.4	4.1
January 2016	8.5	5.9	4.2	3.6
February 2016	8.6	5.5	4.2	3.8
March 2016	8.9	5.6	4.3	3.9
April 2016	8.8	6.2	4.4	3.8
May 2016	8.2	5.7	4.2	4.1
June 2016	8.7	6.0	4.3	3.6
July 2016	8.2	5.4	4.2	3.8
August 2016	8.0	5.6	4.4	4.1
September 2016	8.5	6.2	4.4	3.8
October 2016	8.5	5.7	4.4	3.4
November 2016	8.2	5.6	4.2	3.1
December 2016	8.0	5.8	4.2	2.7
January 2017	7.5	5.8	4.2	3.6
February 2017	8.0	5.6	4.0	3.5
March 2017	7.8	5.0	3.8	3.2
April 2017	7.7	5.2	3.9	3.3
May 2017	7.7	5.2	3.7	3.6
June 2017	6.9	5.0	3.8	3.7
July 2017	7.3	5.1	3.8	3.7
August 2017	7.7	5.1	3.9	3.9
September 2017	7.2	5.1	3.7	3.6
October 2017	7.6	5.0	3.6	3.0
November 2017	7.5	4.9	3.7	3.1
December 2017	6.7	5.0	3.7	2.6
January 2018	7.5	4.9	3.5	2.9
February 2018	6.8	4.9	3.6	3.0
March 2018	6.7	4.9	3.5	3.1
April 2018	6.4	4.8	3.6	2.9
May 2018	5.9	4.8	3.5	2.2
June 2018	6.4	4.5	3.5	3.2
July 2018	6.5	4.5	3.4	3.0
August 2018	6.3	4.7	3.4	2.9
September 2018	6.1	4.6	3.3	3.5
October 2018	6.5	4.4	3.4	3.1
November 2018	6.1	4.7	3.4	2.8
December 2018	6.6	4.4	3.5	3.3
January 2019	7.0	4.8	3.5	3.0
February 2019	7.2	4.2	3.2	3.2
March 2019	6.7	4.7	3.3	3.0
April 2019	6.7	4.2	3.2	2.3
May 2019	6.1	4.2	3.2	2.6
June 2019	5.8	4.3	3.3	2.0
July 2019	5.7	4.5	3.4	2.8
August 2019	5.3	4.1	3.4	2.8
September 2019	5.3	3.9	3.2	2.5
October 2019	5.5	4.1	3.2	2.9
November 2019	5.5	4.3	3.2	2.6
December 2019	6.0	4.2	3.2	2.6
January 2020	6.4	4.3	3.1	3.0
February 2020	6.1	4.3	3.0	2.5
March 2020	7.0	6.0	3.9	4.1
April 2020	16.9	18.9	14.2	14.5
May 2020	16.8	17.6	12.3	15.0
June 2020	15.3	14.5	10.0	13.6
July 2020	14.3	12.9	9.2	12.0
August 2020	12.8	10.5	7.4	10.6
September 2020	11.9	10.2	7.0	8.9
October 2020	10.8	8.8	6.0	7.5
November 2020	10.2	8.6	5.9	6.7
December 2020	9.9	9.3	6.1	6.0
January 2021	9.3	8.5	5.7	6.6
February 2021	9.9	8.5	5.6	5.1
March 2021	9.9	7.9	5.4	5.9
April 2021	10.2	7.9	5.3	5.7
May 2021	9.1	7.2	5.1	5.7
June 2021	9.1	7.3	5.2	5.6
July 2021	8.1	6.5	4.8	5.3
August 2021	8.6	6.1	4.5	4.5
September 2021	7.7	6.2	4.2	4.2
October 2021	7.6	5.7	3.9	4.2
November 2021	6.4	5.0	3.7	3.8
December 2021	6.9	4.6	3.3	3.8
January 2022	7.0	4.7	3.4	3.6
February 2022	6.6	4.3	3.3	2.9
March 2022	6.4	4.2	3.2	2.7
April 2022	6.1	4.2	3.3	3.0
May 2022	6.2	4.4	3.2	2.4
June 2022	5.8	4.3	3.3	2.9
July 2022	5.9	4.0	3.1	2.7
August 2022	6.4	4.5	3.2	2.8
September 2022	5.8	3.9	3.0	2.5
October 2022	5.8	4.2	3.2	3.0
November 2022	5.6	4.0	3.2	2.6
December 2022	5.7	4.2	3.0	2.4
January 2023	5.4	4.7	3.1	2.9
February 2023	5.7	5.4	3.2	3.4
March 2023	5.1	4.6	3.2	2.8
April 2023	4.8	4.4	3.1	2.8
May 2023	5.7	4.1	3.3	3.0
June 2023	6.0	4.2	3.1	3.1
July 2023	5.7	4.4	3.1	2.3
August 2023	5.3	4.9	3.4	3.2
September 2023	5.7	4.6	3.4	2.9
October 2023	5.8	4.8	3.5	3.1
November 2023	5.8	4.6	3.3	3.5
December 2023	5.2	5.0	3.5	3.1
January 2024	5.3	5.0	3.4	2.9
February 2024	5.6	5.0	3.4	3.4
March 2024	6.4	4.5	3.4	2.5
April 2024	5.6	4.8	3.5	2.8
May 2024	6.1	5.0	3.5	3.1

Note: Unemployment rate measures total unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Small sample sizes preclude reliable estimates for Native Americans and other groups for which monthly data are not reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 13. Labor force participation rate

Series: Labor force participation rate

Horizon: January 2005 to May 2024

Description: A line chart with one curve over January 2005 to May 2024. Units are percent, and the data are monthly. The series begins just below 66 in January 2005, fluctuates between about 65 and 66 through July 2009, and decreases to just below 63 in April 2014, with the series dipping to just above 64 in December 2009 and just below 63 in October 2013 during the decline. The series then increases slowly, peaking above 63 in February 2020. It then decreases rapidly to above 60 in April 2020 before increasing quickly to a little over 62 in August 2020. The series then climbs at a slower pace, ending above 62 in May 2024.

Note: Data are monthly, and values before January 2024 are estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff in order to eliminate discontinuities in the published history.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure A. Prime-age employment-to-population ratios compared with the 2019 average ratio, by group

Race and ethnicity
Monthly
Percentage points

Period	White	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	Asian
January 2019	-0.08	-0.11	0.03	-0.32
February 2019	-0.06	-1.08	-0.13	-0.06
March 2019	-0.17	-0.60	-0.08	-0.31
April 2019	-0.29	-0.34	-0.84	-0.61
May 2019	-0.28	-0.17	-0.39	-0.31
June 2019	-0.22	-0.69	-0.78	0.67
July 2019	-0.49	-0.53	-0.93	-0.18
August 2019	0.02	-0.06	0.05	0.52
September 2019	0.22	0.45	0.46	0.39
October 2019	0.33	1.03	1.11	0.44
November 2019	0.45	1.07	0.93	0.26
December 2019	0.58	1.04	0.56	-0.50
January 2020	0.84	0.48	0.99	-0.58
February 2020	0.64	0.29	0.82	-0.09
March 2020	-0.43	-0.53	-1.62	-0.75
April 2020	-10.07	-12.10	-13.68	-9.72
May 2020	-8.03	-11.00	-12.10	-10.60
June 2020	-5.87	-9.36	-9.13	-7.73
July 2020	-5.68	-9.20	-8.15	-6.53
August 2020	-4.24	-7.20	-6.09	-5.44
September 2020	-4.24	-7.44	-6.34	-5.84
October 2020	-3.23	-5.83	-4.53	-4.34
November 2020	-3.52	-4.87	-4.97	-3.07
December 2020	-3.36	-4.85	-5.29	-2.09
January 2021	-3.31	-4.95	-5.39	-2.22
February 2021	-3.18	-5.64	-5.50	-1.74
March 2021	-2.85	-5.56	-4.46	-1.54
April 2021	-2.83	-4.37	-4.02	-2.67
May 2021	-2.77	-4.05	-3.94	-1.96
June 2021	-2.82	-3.71	-4.33	-1.42
July 2021	-2.16	-3.83	-2.91	-0.51
August 2021	-2.12	-2.85	-2.69	-0.72
September 2021	-2.07	-2.89	-2.91	0.38
October 2021	-1.42	-3.07	-2.16	0.50
November 2021	-0.94	-1.93	-0.77	1.46
December 2021	-0.58	-2.33	-0.84	1.93
January 2022	-0.89	-0.98	-0.86	1.39
February 2022	-0.49	-1.37	-0.04	0.59
March 2022	-0.09	-0.40	-0.08	1.92
April 2022	-0.41	0.51	-0.30	1.53
May 2022	-0.30	0.65	-0.20	1.98
June 2022	-0.40	0.04	0.11	1.65
July 2022	-0.31	0.15	-0.17	0.78
August 2022	-0.08	-0.09	0.64	2.42
September 2022	-0.18	0.35	0.48	2.19
October 2022	-0.16	0.16	0.21	0.98
November 2022	-0.32	0.42	0.10	2.20
December 2022	0.21	0.55	0.49	1.69
January 2023	0.26	0.87	0.55	1.65
February 2023	0.34	1.46	-0.35	2.13
March 2023	0.29	1.99	0.28	3.49
April 2023	0.37	1.60	0.44	2.59
May 2023	0.39	1.42	0.72	2.05
June 2023	0.73	1.34	0.85	1.59
July 2023	0.58	1.49	1.13	1.99
August 2023	0.60	1.55	0.75	1.56
September 2023	0.66	0.36	0.78	1.74
October 2023	0.62	0.57	0.42	1.70
November 2023	0.72	1.52	0.51	1.22
December 2023	0.38	1.74	0.47	1.09
January 2024	0.22	1.87	-0.29	2.31
February 2024	0.29	2.10	0.75	2.95
March 2024	0.44	1.43	1.10	2.12
April 2024	0.53	1.18	1.21	2.39
May 2024	0.46	1.27	1.25	2.52

Note: Prime age is 25 to 54. All series are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Board staff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Sex and educational attainment
Monthly
Percentage points

Period	Women some college or more	Women high school or less	Men some college or more	Men high school or less
January 2019	-0.41	0.04	-0.02	0.11
February 2019	-0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.77
March 2019	-0.47	-0.52	0.16	0.17
April 2019	-0.32	-0.50	-0.09	0.13
May 2019	-0.19	-0.71	0.01	-0.38
June 2019	0.01	-0.50	0.05	-0.79
July 2019	-0.36	-1.05	-0.34	-0.03
August 2019	0.20	0.37	-0.09	0.04
September 2019	0.25	1.11	-0.12	0.20
October 2019	0.51	0.62	0.02	0.29
November 2019	0.65	0.03	0.12	0.54
December 2019	0.58	1.04	-0.06	0.48
January 2020	0.56	1.31	0.37	-0.24
February 2020	0.31	1.67	0.03	-0.68
March 2020	-0.56	-0.35	-0.59	-1.60
April 2020	-8.84	-14.61	-8.73	-13.87
May 2020	-7.93	-12.43	-7.18	-11.23
June 2020	-5.24	-9.86	-6.15	-8.73
July 2020	-5.84	-7.62	-6.26	-7.76
August 2020	-4.54	-6.47	-4.48	-5.95
September 2020	-4.15	-6.70	-4.25	-5.95
October 2020	-3.15	-4.95	-3.56	-4.97
November 2020	-2.98	-4.64	-3.73	-5.41
December 2020	-2.61	-4.84	-2.81	-6.15
January 2021	-2.83	-5.33	-3.00	-5.47
February 2021	-2.63	-5.10	-2.91	-6.03
March 2021	-2.04	-4.51	-2.64	-6.06
April 2021	-2.20	-4.24	-2.27	-5.54
May 2021	-2.20	-3.81	-2.36	-5.48
June 2021	-1.85	-4.34	-2.75	-4.45
July 2021	-1.51	-3.18	-1.80	-3.96
August 2021	-1.87	-2.37	-1.82	-3.19
September 2021	-1.29	-3.39	-1.76	-2.97
October 2021	-1.32	-2.48	-1.02	-2.43
November 2021	-0.36	-2.23	-1.01	-1.93
December 2021	0.12	-1.37	-0.61	-2.31
January 2022	0.10	-1.97	-1.35	-1.37
February 2022	-0.10	-1.91	-0.61	-1.05
March 2022	0.76	0.07	-0.27	-1.25
April 2022	0.49	-0.56	-0.03	-1.28
May 2022	0.56	-0.53	-0.15	-0.97
June 2022	0.40	-0.69	-0.45	-1.05
July 2022	0.34	-0.37	-0.21	-1.58
August 2022	0.91	-0.14	-0.40	-1.01
September 2022	0.33	0.37	-0.34	-0.51
October 2022	0.34	-0.93	-0.27	-0.98
November 2022	0.31	-0.88	-0.29	-1.22
December 2022	0.45	0.44	-0.13	-0.54
January 2023	0.90	0.71	-0.29	-1.19
February 2023	1.03	0.78	-0.34	-0.73
March 2023	1.52	0.51	-0.07	-0.50
April 2023	1.30	0.62	-0.09	-0.47
May 2023	1.02	1.13	-0.28	-0.23
June 2023	1.25	1.49	-0.04	-0.26
July 2023	1.57	0.77	-0.07	-0.05
August 2023	1.42	0.99	-0.02	-0.19
September 2023	1.48	0.92	0.16	-0.56
October 2023	1.50	1.11	-0.31	-0.60
November 2023	1.48	1.10	0.12	-0.48
December 2023	1.22	0.94	-0.13	-0.60
January 2024	1.25	0.91	-0.13	-0.63
February 2024	1.50	0.54	-0.27	-0.39
March 2024	1.37	0.90	-0.47	0.08
April 2024	1.61	1.07	-0.40	-0.52
May 2024	1.75	0.99	-0.38	-0.98

Note: Prime age is 25 to 54. All series are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Board staff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Disability
Monthly
Percentage points

Period	People with a disability	People without a disability
January 2019	-0.22	-0.08
February 2019	-0.67	-0.04
March 2019	0.28	-0.29
April 2019	-0.22	-0.25
May 2019	-0.37	-0.21
June 2019	-0.57	-0.17
July 2019	-0.21	-0.52
August 2019	1.64	-0.03
September 2019	0.48	0.13
October 2019	-0.64	0.37
November 2019	0.74	0.45
December 2019	-0.25	0.64
January 2020	1.98	0.61
February 2020	0.92	0.53
March 2020	0.47	-0.70
April 2020	-5.06	-10.81
May 2020	-4.50	-9.07
June 2020	-3.06	-6.85
July 2020	-3.92	-6.53
August 2020	-3.42	-4.97
September 2020	-3.35	-5.04
October 2020	-2.07	-4.01
November 2020	-2.50	-3.91
December 2020	-2.23	-3.64
January 2021	-2.49	-3.64
February 2021	-2.40	-3.47
March 2021	-2.21	-3.33
April 2021	-0.89	-3.20
May 2021	-0.99	-3.09
June 2021	0.11	-2.95
July 2021	-0.73	-2.12
August 2021	-0.64	-2.12
September 2021	2.17	-2.12
October 2021	2.14	-1.61
November 2021	4.46	-1.03
December 2021	2.47	-0.60
January 2022	3.35	-0.78
February 2022	2.93	-0.47
March 2022	3.37	0.02
April 2022	3.87	-0.10
May 2022	4.03	-0.03
June 2022	4.40	-0.36
July 2022	3.80	-0.19
August 2022	4.73	-0.01
September 2022	4.64	0.08
October 2022	5.26	-0.13
November 2022	4.84	-0.19
December 2022	6.07	0.19
January 2023	6.13	0.28
February 2023	7.92	0.32
March 2023	6.79	0.47
April 2023	5.37	0.50
May 2023	6.87	0.46
June 2023	7.16	0.68
July 2023	8.53	0.83
August 2023	7.97	0.72
September 2023	7.58	0.76
October 2023	7.57	0.75
November 2023	8.14	0.75
December 2023	8.68	0.51
January 2024	8.85	0.54
February 2024	8.69	0.64
March 2024	8.06	0.49
April 2024	9.45	0.49
May 2024	9.84	0.46

Note: Prime age is 25 to 54. All series are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Board staff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure B. Employment-to-population ratios relative to 2019 average, by age

Monthly
Percentage points

Period	Ages 16 to 24	Ages 25 to 54	Ages 55+
January 2019	-0.70	-0.12	-0.14
February 2019	-0.89	-0.14	0.14
March 2019	-0.62	-0.25	-0.19
April 2019	-0.53	-0.25	-0.22
May 2019	0.03	-0.27	-0.30
June 2019	0.39	-0.22	-0.25
July 2019	0.56	-0.47	0.30
August 2019	-0.08	0.06	0.17
September 2019	0.46	0.22	0.11
October 2019	0.79	0.42	0.09
November 2019	0.31	0.47	0.13
December 2019	0.27	0.56	0.16
January 2020	0.62	0.64	0.10
February 2020	1.13	0.47	0.12
March 2020	-2.32	-0.58	-0.80
April 2020	-15.63	-10.39	-5.75
May 2020	-12.60	-8.67	-5.15
June 2020	-9.55	-6.48	-3.87
July 2020	-8.13	-6.24	-3.25
August 2020	-5.67	-4.77	-2.66
September 2020	-3.97	-4.87	-2.90
October 2020	-2.02	-3.81	-2.51
November 2020	-2.14	-3.81	-2.64
December 2020	-2.59	-3.52	-2.87
January 2021	-2.48	-3.51	-2.85
February 2021	-2.16	-3.38	-2.94
March 2021	-2.53	-3.20	-2.65
April 2021	-1.83	-3.10	-2.62
May 2021	-1.42	-2.97	-2.56
June 2021	-1.32	-2.88	-2.51
July 2021	-0.95	-2.20	-2.44
August 2021	-1.20	-2.06	-2.12
September 2021	-0.31	-1.98	-2.03
October 2021	0.28	-1.46	-2.14
November 2021	0.59	-0.93	-2.00
December 2021	0.58	-0.66	-1.80
January 2022	-0.43	-0.72	-1.19
February 2022	-0.49	-0.49	-1.17
March 2022	-0.48	-0.04	-1.23
April 2022	-0.77	-0.18	-1.34
May 2022	-0.34	-0.04	-1.26
June 2022	0.07	-0.21	-1.44
July 2022	-0.03	-0.09	-1.44
August 2022	0.28	0.24	-1.64
September 2022	-0.06	0.16	-1.38
October 2022	0.11	-0.00	-1.26
November 2022	0.27	-0.08	-1.57
December 2022	0.26	0.33	-1.34
January 2023	0.67	0.41	-1.31
February 2023	0.95	0.58	-1.77
March 2023	0.93	0.68	-1.61
April 2023	0.90	0.68	-1.58
May 2023	0.75	0.65	-1.77
June 2023	0.36	0.80	-1.61
July 2023	-0.28	0.89	-1.35
August 2023	0.28	0.84	-1.42
September 2023	0.49	0.80	-1.47
October 2023	0.52	0.78	-1.62
November 2023	1.11	0.87	-1.50
December 2023	0.67	0.66	-1.83
January 2024	0.82	0.73	-1.71
February 2024	-0.49	0.78	-1.74
March 2024	0.14	0.67	-1.53
April 2024	0.52	0.73	-1.85
May 2024	-0.44	0.74	-1.94

Note: Data before January 2023 are estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff in order to eliminate discontinuities in the published history.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure C1. Median real wage growth, by group

Wage quartiles
Monthly
Percent

Period	1st quartile	2nd quartile	3rd quartile	4th quartile
January 2019	2.47	0.97	1.27	0.97
February 2019	2.51	1.01	1.41	1.11
March 2019	2.45	1.05	1.55	1.05
April 2019	2.59	1.19	1.69	1.19
May 2019	2.66	1.36	1.76	1.26
June 2019	2.73	1.53	1.83	1.33
July 2019	2.80	1.70	2.00	1.50
August 2019	2.77	1.77	1.97	1.57
September 2019	2.92	2.02	2.12	1.62
October 2019	2.88	1.98	2.18	1.58
November 2019	3.04	2.04	2.14	1.44
December 2019	3.16	2.06	2.06	1.56
January 2020	3.25	2.15	2.05	1.65
February 2020	3.23	2.33	2.03	1.63
March 2020	3.16	2.26	1.86	1.66
April 2020	3.26	2.36	1.96	1.76
May 2020	3.34	2.44	2.14	1.94
June 2020	3.20	2.50	2.10	2.10
July 2020	3.24	2.54	2.14	2.04
August 2020	3.26	2.36	2.26	2.16
September 2020	3.17	2.37	2.37	2.17
October 2020	3.29	2.49	2.29	2.19
November 2020	3.20	2.50	2.30	2.30
December 2020	3.12	2.52	2.22	2.22
January 2021	3.02	2.62	2.32	2.12
February 2021	3.20	2.40	2.30	2.00
March 2021	3.07	2.27	2.27	1.67
April 2021	2.70	1.90	2.00	1.50
May 2021	2.49	1.49	1.59	1.09
June 2021	2.28	1.08	1.18	0.78
July 2021	2.28	1.08	0.88	0.38
August 2021	2.19	0.89	0.49	0.09
September 2021	1.99	0.79	0.19	-0.31
October 2021	1.74	0.54	-0.16	-0.66
November 2021	1.43	0.13	-0.47	-1.07
December 2021	1.33	-0.07	-0.77	-1.37
January 2022	1.34	-0.36	-1.06	-1.66
February 2022	1.05	-0.55	-1.25	-1.75
March 2022	1.00	-0.50	-1.50	-2.00
April 2022	1.06	-0.24	-1.44	-2.04
May 2022	1.15	-0.05	-1.45	-2.15
June 2022	1.22	0.22	-1.38	-2.28
July 2022	1.25	0.25	-1.45	-2.35
August 2022	1.09	0.29	-1.31	-2.31
September 2022	0.95	0.25	-1.15	-2.15
October 2022	0.97	0.27	-1.03	-2.03
November 2022	0.97	0.67	-0.73	-1.73
December 2022	0.94	0.74	-0.66	-1.56
January 2023	0.80	0.90	-0.50	-1.40
February 2023	0.92	1.22	-0.28	-1.28
March 2023	1.02	1.22	0.02	-0.78
April 2023	1.10	1.20	0.00	-0.50
May 2023	1.13	1.23	0.43	-0.07
June 2023	1.16	1.16	0.56	0.36
July 2023	1.23	1.33	0.93	0.63
August 2023	1.30	1.50	1.20	0.80
September 2023	1.46	1.56	1.36	1.06
October 2023	1.64	1.74	1.54	1.24
November 2023	2.01	1.61	1.71	1.41
December 2023	2.15	1.95	2.05	1.65
January 2024	2.20	2.00	2.10	1.90
February 2024	2.22	1.92	2.32	2.02
March 2024	2.27	2.07	2.37	1.77
April 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
May 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
June 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
July 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
August 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
September 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
October 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
November 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND
December 2024	ND	ND	ND	ND

Note: The data extend through March 2024. Series show 12-month moving averages of the median percent change in the hourly wage of individuals observed 12 months apart, deflated by the 12-month moving average of the 12-month percent change in the personal consumption expenditures price index. In the top-left panel, workers are assigned to wage quartiles based on the average of their wage reports in both Current Population Survey outgoing rotation group interviews; workers in the lowest 25 percent of the average wage distribution are assigned to the 1st quartile, and those in the top 25 percent are assigned to the 4th quartile.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker; Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.

Figure C2. Prime-age employment-to-population ratios compared with the 2019 average ratio, by group

Race
Monthly
Percent

Period	Nonwhite	White
January 2019	1.47	1.47
February 2019	1.61	1.51
March 2019	1.65	1.55
April 2019	1.89	1.59
May 2019	1.86	1.76
June 2019	2.13	1.83
July 2019	2.50	1.90
August 2019	2.57	1.97
September 2019	2.72	2.02
October 2019	2.98	2.08
November 2019	2.94	2.04
December 2019	2.86	2.06
January 2020	2.85	2.15
February 2020	2.83	2.13
March 2020	2.86	2.16
April 2020	2.66	2.26
May 2020	2.94	2.34
June 2020	2.90	2.40
July 2020	2.64	2.44
August 2020	2.56	2.46
September 2020	2.37	2.47
October 2020	2.39	2.49
November 2020	2.30	2.50
December 2020	2.52	2.42
January 2021	2.42	2.42
February 2021	2.40	2.40
March 2021	2.17	2.27
April 2021	1.90	1.90
May 2021	1.39	1.59
June 2021	0.88	1.28
July 2021	0.58	1.08
August 2021	0.39	0.79
September 2021	0.49	0.49
October 2021	0.14	0.24
November 2021	0.03	-0.17
December 2021	-0.27	-0.37
January 2022	-0.26	-0.56
February 2022	-0.35	-0.75
March 2022	-0.30	-0.90
April 2022	-0.14	-0.94
May 2022	0.05	-0.85
June 2022	0.22	-0.78
July 2022	0.25	-0.85
August 2022	0.29	-0.81
September 2022	0.15	-0.75
October 2022	0.17	-0.63
November 2022	0.07	-0.33
December 2022	0.14	-0.26
January 2023	0.20	-0.20
February 2023	0.32	0.02
March 2023	0.42	0.32
April 2023	0.30	0.40
May 2023	0.53	0.63
June 2023	0.86	0.76
July 2023	1.23	0.93
August 2023	1.50	1.10
September 2023	1.76	1.26
October 2023	1.94	1.44
November 2023	2.11	1.61
December 2023	2.15	1.85
January 2024	2.30	2.00
February 2024	2.22	2.12
March 2024	2.37	2.07

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker; Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.

Return to text

Figure 14. Available jobs versus available workers

Monthly
Millions

Period	Available workers	Available jobs
January 2005	146.8	143.2
February 2005	147.2	143.0
March 2005	147.2	143.5
April 2005	147.8	144.2
May 2005	148.1	144.6
June 2005	148.1	144.4
July 2005	148.3	145.0
August 2005	148.6	145.5
September 2005	148.7	145.3
October 2005	148.7	145.7
November 2005	148.8	145.4
December 2005	148.8	145.8
January 2006	149.1	146.3
February 2006	149.5	146.7
March 2006	149.7	146.9
April 2006	149.7	147.4
May 2006	149.9	147.7
June 2006	150.2	147.7
July 2006	150.2	147.7
August 2006	150.5	147.9
September 2006	150.5	148.4
October 2006	150.9	148.9
November 2006	151.2	149.0
December 2006	151.6	149.5
January 2007	151.7	149.3
February 2007	151.6	149.5
March 2007	151.7	149.7
April 2007	151.0	149.2
May 2007	151.3	149.2
June 2007	151.6	149.4
July 2007	151.7	149.4
August 2007	151.3	148.9
September 2007	152.0	149.4
October 2007	151.7	149.2
November 2007	152.4	149.8
December 2007	152.4	149.5
January 2008	153.2	150.1
February 2008	152.8	149.9
March 2008	153.0	149.5
April 2008	152.9	149.5
May 2008	153.4	149.1
June 2008	153.4	149.0
July 2008	153.6	148.5
August 2008	153.7	148.0
September 2008	153.6	147.8
October 2008	153.9	147.1
November 2008	153.6	146.5
December 2008	153.7	145.7
January 2009	153.7	144.8
February 2009	154.0	143.8
March 2009	153.6	143.0
April 2009	153.9	142.6
May 2009	154.1	142.0
June 2009	154.1	142.0
July 2009	154.0	141.8
August 2009	153.7	141.1
September 2009	153.2	140.6
October 2009	153.2	140.3
November 2009	153.3	140.5
December 2009	152.5	139.9
January 2010	153.1	140.6
February 2010	153.3	141.1
March 2010	153.6	141.1
April 2010	154.3	141.7
May 2010	153.8	142.1
June 2010	153.3	141.8
July 2010	153.4	141.6
August 2010	153.8	142.2
September 2010	153.6	142.1
October 2010	153.4	141.7
November 2010	153.9	142.0
December 2010	153.4	142.2
January 2011	153.6	142.5
February 2011	153.5	142.7
March 2011	153.6	143.1
April 2011	153.8	143.1
May 2011	153.7	143.1
June 2011	153.7	142.8
July 2011	153.7	143.4
August 2011	154.2	143.9
September 2011	154.5	143.8
October 2011	154.3	144.5
November 2011	154.5	144.8
December 2011	154.4	144.8
January 2012	154.6	145.6
February 2012	154.9	146.0
March 2012	155.0	145.9
April 2012	154.8	146.1
May 2012	155.2	146.3
June 2012	155.4	146.5
July 2012	155.4	146.6
August 2012	155.1	146.4
September 2012	155.6	147.2
October 2012	156.0	147.7
November 2012	155.8	147.5
December 2012	156.1	147.6
January 2013	156.2	147.7
February 2013	155.7	147.7
March 2013	155.4	147.7
April 2013	155.8	148.0
May 2013	155.9	148.2
June 2013	156.1	148.5
July 2013	156.1	148.9
August 2013	156.1	148.7
September 2013	156.2	149.0
October 2013	155.1	148.1
November 2013	155.8	149.1
December 2013	155.7	149.4
January 2014	155.9	149.8
February 2014	156.0	149.7
March 2014	156.6	150.5
April 2014	155.9	150.6
May 2014	156.3	150.9
June 2014	156.3	151.6
July 2014	156.7	152.0
August 2014	156.8	152.0
September 2014	156.7	152.8
October 2014	157.1	152.9
November 2014	157.2	153.1
December 2014	157.1	153.1
January 2015	157.4	153.7
February 2015	157.1	153.8
March 2015	157.0	154.0
April 2015	157.5	154.2
May 2015	158.1	154.9
June 2015	157.5	154.8
July 2015	157.6	154.6
August 2015	157.8	155.8
September 2015	157.3	154.8
October 2015	157.7	155.3
November 2015	158.1	155.8
December 2015	158.6	156.4
January 2016	158.6	156.8
February 2016	159.0	157.3
March 2016	159.5	157.3
April 2016	159.5	157.6
May 2016	159.1	157.3
June 2016	159.3	157.3
July 2016	159.7	157.8
August 2016	160.0	158.2
September 2016	160.2	157.9
October 2016	160.1	158.1
November 2016	160.0	158.0
December 2016	160.2	158.6
January 2017	160.6	159.1
February 2017	160.8	159.0
March 2017	161.0	159.8
April 2017	161.3	160.0
May 2017	161.0	160.1
June 2017	161.2	160.1
July 2017	161.5	160.9
August 2017	161.6	160.7
September 2017	162.1	161.5
October 2017	161.3	160.9
November 2017	161.6	161.2
December 2017	161.6	161.2
January 2018	161.6	161.5
February 2018	162.4	162.5
March 2018	162.3	162.3
April 2018	162.4	162.7
May 2018	162.5	163.1
June 2018	162.8	163.4
July 2018	163.0	164.0
August 2018	162.3	163.3
September 2018	162.7	163.8
October 2018	163.2	164.4
November 2018	163.3	164.5
December 2018	163.8	164.9
January 2019	164.0	165.0
February 2019	164.1	165.4
March 2019	163.9	164.7
April 2019	163.6	164.9
May 2019	163.8	165.1
June 2019	164.2	165.5
July 2019	164.7	165.8
August 2019	164.8	165.9
September 2019	165.2	166.6
October 2019	165.5	166.7
November 2019	165.5	166.9
December 2019	165.7	166.7
January 2020	165.8	166.6
February 2020	165.9	167.3
March 2020	164.0	163.7
April 2020	157.7	140.4
May 2020	159.5	143.1
June 2020	161.5	149.3
July 2020	161.7	151.4
August 2020	162.3	155.2
September 2020	161.7	155.4
October 2020	162.4	157.8
November 2020	162.0	158.1
December 2020	162.2	158.2
January 2021	161.6	158.0
February 2021	161.6	158.7
March 2021	161.9	159.9
April 2021	162.4	161.0
May 2021	162.3	162.2
June 2021	162.8	163.1
July 2021	163.2	164.6
August 2021	163.2	165.8
September 2021	163.2	166.4
October 2021	163.4	166.9
November 2021	163.9	168.4
December 2021	164.1	168.9
January 2022	163.8	168.7
February 2022	163.9	168.9
March 2022	164.4	170.1
April 2022	164.1	170.3
May 2022	164.5	170.3
June 2022	164.5	169.9
July 2022	164.5	169.9
August 2022	165.2	170.7
September 2022	165.1	169.4
October 2022	165.1	169.9
November 2022	164.9	169.5
December 2022	165.6	170.6
January 2023	165.5	170.8
February 2023	165.9	170.4
March 2023	166.3	170.4
April 2023	166.4	170.3
May 2023	166.4	170.3
June 2023	166.6	170.0
July 2023	166.8	170.1
August 2023	167.5	170.0
September 2023	167.6	170.6
October 2023	167.4	170.3
November 2023	167.8	170.3
December 2023	167.1	169.8
January 2024	167.3	170.0
February 2024	167.4	169.7
March 2024	167.9	170.3
April 2024	168.0	169.8
May 2024	167.7	169.1

Note: Available jobs are employment plus job openings as of the end of the previous month. Available workers are the labor force. Data for employment and labor force before January 2024 are estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff in order to eliminate discontinuities in the published history.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; U.S. Census Bureau; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure 15. Measures of change in hourly compensation

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker	Average hourly earnings private sector
January 2016	3.10	2.55
February 2016	3.20	2.38
March 2016	3.20	2.37
April 2016	3.40	2.57
May 2016	3.50	2.44
June 2016	3.60	2.60
July 2016	3.40	2.76
August 2016	3.30	2.51
September 2016	3.60	2.63
October 2016	3.90	2.78
November 2016	3.90	2.57
December 2016	3.50	2.69
January 2017	3.20	2.44
February 2017	3.20	2.72
March 2017	3.40	2.59
April 2017	3.50	2.51
May 2017	3.40	2.46
June 2017	3.20	2.50
July 2017	3.30	2.61
August 2017	3.40	2.57
September 2017	3.60	2.79
October 2017	3.40	2.32
November 2017	3.20	2.43
December 2017	2.90	2.66
January 2018	3.00	2.81
February 2018	2.90	2.61
March 2018	3.30	2.87
April 2018	3.30	2.83
May 2018	3.20	2.94
June 2018	3.20	2.97
July 2018	3.30	2.77
August 2018	3.50	3.11
September 2018	3.50	3.13
October 2018	3.70	3.32
November 2018	3.90	3.43
December 2018	3.80	3.53
January 2019	3.80	3.22
February 2019	3.40	3.59
March 2019	3.50	3.50
April 2019	3.60	3.23
May 2019	3.70	3.26
June 2019	3.90	3.37
July 2019	3.90	3.43
August 2019	3.70	3.42
September 2019	3.60	3.11
October 2019	3.50	3.14
November 2019	3.70	3.32
December 2019	3.70	2.98
January 2020	3.80	3.08
February 2020	3.70	3.03
March 2020	3.50	3.49
April 2020	3.30	8.03
May 2020	3.50	6.68
June 2020	3.80	5.12
July 2020	3.90	4.85
August 2020	3.50	4.80
September 2020	3.50	4.76
October 2020	3.50	4.64
November 2020	3.70	4.51
December 2020	3.40	5.39
January 2021	3.40	5.24
February 2021	3.40	5.29
March 2021	3.40	4.48
April 2021	3.20	0.67
May 2021	3.00	2.25
June 2021	3.20	3.95
July 2021	3.70	4.32
August 2021	3.90	4.38
September 2021	4.20	4.88
October 2021	4.10	5.45
November 2021	4.30	5.43
December 2021	4.50	5.02
January 2022	5.10	5.68
February 2022	5.80	5.29
March 2022	6.00	5.92
April 2022	6.00	5.76
May 2022	6.10	5.56
June 2022	6.70	5.44
July 2022	6.70	5.48
August 2022	6.70	5.43
September 2022	6.30	5.14
October 2022	6.40	4.98
November 2022	6.40	5.09
December 2022	6.10	4.90
January 2023	6.10	4.55
February 2023	6.10	4.74
March 2023	6.40	4.62
April 2023	6.10	4.66
May 2023	6.00	4.55
June 2023	5.60	4.66
July 2023	5.70	4.67
August 2023	5.30	4.53
September 2023	5.20	4.52
October 2023	5.20	4.28
November 2023	5.20	4.26
December 2023	5.20	4.25
January 2024	5.00	4.35
February 2024	5.00	4.25
March 2024	4.70	4.14
April 2024	ND	3.98
May 2024	ND	4.08

Quarterly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Employment cost index private sector
2016:Q1	1.79
2016:Q2	2.35
2016:Q3	2.26
2016:Q4	2.17
2017:Q1	2.31
2017:Q2	2.38
2017:Q3	2.52
2017:Q4	2.59
2018:Q1	2.81
2018:Q2	2.86
2018:Q3	2.92
2018:Q4	2.99
2019:Q1	2.81
2019:Q2	2.63
2019:Q3	2.69
2019:Q4	2.68
2020:Q1	2.80
2020:Q2	2.71
2020:Q3	2.40
2020:Q4	2.61
2021:Q1	2.80
2021:Q2	3.07
2021:Q3	4.05
2021:Q4	4.38
2022:Q1	4.82
2022:Q2	5.54
2022:Q3	5.19
2022:Q4	5.07
2023:Q1	4.79
2023:Q2	4.46
2023:Q3	4.29
2023:Q4	4.06
2024:Q1	4.07

Note: For the private-sector employment cost index, change is over the 12 months ending in the last month of each quarter; for private-sector average hourly earnings, the data are 12-month percent changes; for the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, the data are shown as a 3-month moving average of the 12-month percent change and extend through March 2024.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker; all via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 16. U.S. labor productivity

Quarterly
2017 average = 100

Period	Labor productivity
2013:Q1	95.6
2013:Q2	95.5
2013:Q3	96.1
2013:Q4	97.0
2014:Q1	96.2
2014:Q2	96.8
2014:Q3	97.4
2014:Q4	97.0
2015:Q1	97.6
2015:Q2	98.1
2015:Q3	98.4
2015:Q4	97.8
2016:Q1	98.2
2016:Q2	98.2
2016:Q3	98.6
2016:Q4	99.4
2017:Q1	99.5
2017:Q2	99.5
2017:Q3	100.3
2017:Q4	101.0
2018:Q1	101.5
2018:Q2	101.6
2018:Q3	101.7
2018:Q4	101.6
2019:Q1	102.4
2019:Q2	103.0
2019:Q3	104.1
2019:Q4	105.0
2020:Q1	104.7
2020:Q2	109.4
2020:Q3	111.2
2020:Q4	110.1
2021:Q1	110.9
2021:Q2	110.9
2021:Q3	110.3
2021:Q4	111.1
2022:Q1	109.3
2022:Q2	108.3
2022:Q3	108.3
2022:Q4	109.0
2023:Q1	108.9
2023:Q2	109.7
2023:Q3	110.9
2023:Q4	111.9
2024:Q1	112.0

Note: The data are output per hour in the business sector.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 17. Change in real gross domestic product and gross domestic income

Annual
Percent, annual rate

Period	Gross domestic product	Gross domestic income
2016	2.18	1.28
2017	2.99	3.02
2018	2.13	2.75
2019	3.18	2.61
2020	-1.08	0.21
2021	5.42	4.38
2022	0.65	0.02

Note: The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

Semiannual
Percent, annual rate

Period	Gross domestic product	Gross domestic income
2023:H1	2.15	0.47
2023:H2	4.13	2.76

Note: The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

Quarterly
Percent, annual rate

Period	Gross domestic product	Gross domestic income
2024:Q1	1.41	1.33

Note: The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 18. Change in real personal consumption expenditures

Annual
Percent, annual rate

Period	Personal consumption expenditures
2016	2.48
2017	3.07
2018	2.05
2019	2.60
2020	-0.79
2021	7.24
2022	1.17

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

Semiannual
Percent, annual rate

Period	Personal consumption expenditures
2023:H1	2.28
2023:H2	3.19

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

Quarterly
Percent, annual rate

Period	Personal consumption expenditures
2024:Q1	1.45

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 19. Personal saving rate

Monthly
Percent

Period	Personal saving rate
January 2014	5.20
February 2014	5.30
March 2014	5.20
April 2014	5.40
May 2014	5.60
June 2014	5.60
July 2014	5.50
August 2014	5.30
September 2014	5.50
October 2014	5.40
November 2014	5.60
December 2014	6.00
January 2015	6.30
February 2015	6.40
March 2015	5.90
April 2015	5.90
May 2015	5.80
June 2015	5.70
July 2015	5.60
August 2015	5.60
September 2015	5.80
October 2015	5.80
November 2015	5.60
December 2015	5.80
January 2016	6.10
February 2016	5.60
March 2016	5.90
April 2016	5.50
May 2016	5.30
June 2016	4.90
July 2016	5.10
August 2016	5.10
September 2016	5.10
October 2016	5.30
November 2016	5.40
December 2016	5.00
January 2017	5.30
February 2017	5.60
March 2017	5.60
April 2017	5.70
May 2017	6.30
June 2017	6.00
July 2017	6.00
August 2017	6.10
September 2017	5.90
October 2017	6.00
November 2017	5.60
December 2017	5.00
January 2018	5.70
February 2018	5.80
March 2018	5.90
April 2018	6.00
May 2018	6.00
June 2018	6.30
July 2018	6.50
August 2018	6.60
September 2018	6.80
October 2018	6.70
November 2018	6.50
December 2018	8.40
January 2019	8.20
February 2019	8.50
March 2019	7.90
April 2019	7.70
May 2019	7.30
June 2019	7.10
July 2019	6.80
August 2019	7.00
September 2019	7.20
October 2019	7.30
November 2019	7.10
December 2019	6.40
January 2020	7.20
February 2020	7.70
March 2020	12.50
April 2020	32.00
May 2020	22.70
June 2020	18.40
July 2020	17.90
August 2020	14.00
September 2020	13.20
October 2020	12.80
November 2020	12.10
December 2020	12.00
January 2021	19.30
February 2021	12.80
March 2021	26.10
April 2021	12.30
May 2021	9.90
June 2021	8.70
July 2021	9.40
August 2021	8.70
September 2021	7.20
October 2021	6.60
November 2021	6.20
December 2021	6.10
January 2022	4.10
February 2022	4.10
March 2022	3.40
April 2022	3.10
May 2022	3.10
June 2022	2.70
July 2022	3.50
August 2022	3.20
September 2022	3.00
October 2022	3.00
November 2022	3.30
December 2022	3.40
January 2023	4.40
February 2023	4.70
March 2023	5.20
April 2023	5.20
May 2023	5.30
June 2023	4.80
July 2023	4.40
August 2023	4.50
September 2023	3.90
October 2023	3.80
November 2023	3.70
December 2023	3.60
January 2024	4.00
February 2024	3.70
March 2024	3.50
April 2024	3.70
May 2024	3.90

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

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Figure 20. Indexes of consumer sentiment

1985 average = 100 (Conference Board)
February 1966 = 100 (Michigan survey)

Period	Conference Board	Michigan survey
January 2005	105.1	95.5
February 2005	104.4	94.1
March 2005	103.0	92.6
April 2005	97.5	87.7
May 2005	103.1	86.9
June 2005	106.2	96.0
July 2005	103.6	96.5
August 2005	105.5	89.1
September 2005	87.5	76.9
October 2005	85.2	74.2
November 2005	98.3	81.6
December 2005	103.8	91.5
January 2006	106.8	91.2
February 2006	102.7	86.7
March 2006	107.5	88.9
April 2006	109.8	87.4
May 2006	104.7	79.1
June 2006	105.4	84.9
July 2006	107.0	84.7
August 2006	100.2	82.0
September 2006	105.9	85.4
October 2006	105.1	93.6
November 2006	105.3	92.1
December 2006	110.0	91.7
January 2007	110.2	96.9
February 2007	111.2	91.3
March 2007	108.2	88.4
April 2007	106.3	87.1
May 2007	108.5	88.3
June 2007	105.3	85.3
July 2007	111.9	90.4
August 2007	105.6	83.4
September 2007	99.5	83.4
October 2007	95.2	80.9
November 2007	87.8	76.1
December 2007	90.6	75.5
January 2008	87.3	78.4
February 2008	76.4	70.8
March 2008	65.9	69.5
April 2008	62.8	62.6
May 2008	58.1	59.8
June 2008	51.0	56.4
July 2008	51.9	61.2
August 2008	58.5	63.0
September 2008	61.4	70.3
October 2008	38.8	57.6
November 2008	44.7	55.3
December 2008	38.6	60.1
January 2009	37.4	61.2
February 2009	25.3	56.3
March 2009	26.9	57.3
April 2009	40.8	65.1
May 2009	54.8	68.7
June 2009	49.3	70.8
July 2009	47.4	66.0
August 2009	54.5	65.7
September 2009	53.4	73.5
October 2009	48.7	70.6
November 2009	50.6	67.4
December 2009	53.6	72.5
January 2010	56.5	74.4
February 2010	46.4	73.6
March 2010	52.3	73.6
April 2010	57.7	72.2
May 2010	62.7	73.6
June 2010	54.3	76.0
July 2010	51.0	67.8
August 2010	53.2	68.9
September 2010	48.6	68.2
October 2010	49.9	67.7
November 2010	57.8	71.6
December 2010	63.4	74.5
January 2011	64.8	74.2
February 2011	72.0	77.5
March 2011	63.8	67.5
April 2011	66.0	69.8
May 2011	61.7	74.3
June 2011	57.6	71.5
July 2011	59.2	63.7
August 2011	45.2	55.8
September 2011	46.4	59.5
October 2011	40.9	60.8
November 2011	55.2	63.7
December 2011	64.8	69.9
January 2012	61.5	75.0
February 2012	71.6	75.3
March 2012	69.5	76.2
April 2012	68.7	76.4
May 2012	64.4	79.3
June 2012	62.7	73.2
July 2012	65.4	72.3
August 2012	61.3	74.3
September 2012	68.4	78.3
October 2012	73.1	82.6
November 2012	71.5	82.7
December 2012	66.7	72.9
January 2013	58.4	73.8
February 2013	68.0	77.6
March 2013	61.9	78.6
April 2013	69.0	76.4
May 2013	74.3	84.5
June 2013	82.1	84.1
July 2013	81.0	85.1
August 2013	81.8	82.1
September 2013	80.2	77.5
October 2013	72.4	73.2
November 2013	72.0	75.1
December 2013	77.5	82.5
January 2014	79.4	81.2
February 2014	78.3	81.6
March 2014	83.9	80.0
April 2014	81.7	84.1
May 2014	82.2	81.9
June 2014	86.4	82.5
July 2014	90.3	81.8
August 2014	93.4	82.5
September 2014	89.0	84.6
October 2014	94.1	86.9
November 2014	91.0	88.8
December 2014	93.1	93.6
January 2015	103.8	98.1
February 2015	98.8	95.4
March 2015	101.4	93.0
April 2015	94.3	95.9
May 2015	94.6	90.7
June 2015	99.8	96.1
July 2015	91.0	93.1
August 2015	101.3	91.9
September 2015	102.6	87.2
October 2015	99.1	90.0
November 2015	92.6	91.3
December 2015	96.3	92.6
January 2016	97.8	92.0
February 2016	94.0	91.7
March 2016	96.1	91.0
April 2016	94.7	89.0
May 2016	92.4	94.7
June 2016	97.4	93.5
July 2016	96.7	90.0
August 2016	101.8	89.8
September 2016	103.5	91.2
October 2016	100.8	87.2
November 2016	109.4	93.8
December 2016	113.3	98.2
January 2017	111.6	98.5
February 2017	116.1	96.3
March 2017	124.9	96.9
April 2017	119.4	97.0
May 2017	117.6	97.1
June 2017	117.3	95.0
July 2017	120.0	93.4
August 2017	120.4	96.8
September 2017	120.6	95.1
October 2017	126.2	100.7
November 2017	128.6	98.5
December 2017	123.1	95.9
January 2018	124.3	95.7
February 2018	130.0	99.7
March 2018	127.0	101.4
April 2018	125.6	98.8
May 2018	128.8	98.0
June 2018	127.1	98.2
July 2018	127.9	97.9
August 2018	134.7	96.2
September 2018	135.3	100.1
October 2018	137.9	98.6
November 2018	136.4	97.5
December 2018	126.6	98.3
January 2019	121.7	91.2
February 2019	131.4	93.8
March 2019	124.2	98.4
April 2019	129.2	97.2
May 2019	131.3	100.0
June 2019	124.3	98.2
July 2019	135.8	98.4
August 2019	134.2	89.8
September 2019	126.3	93.2
October 2019	126.1	95.5
November 2019	126.8	96.8
December 2019	128.2	99.3
January 2020	130.4	99.8
February 2020	132.6	101.0
March 2020	118.8	89.1
April 2020	85.7	71.8
May 2020	85.9	72.3
June 2020	98.3	78.1
July 2020	91.7	72.5
August 2020	86.3	74.1
September 2020	101.3	80.4
October 2020	101.4	81.8
November 2020	92.9	76.9
December 2020	87.1	80.7
January 2021	87.1	79.0
February 2021	95.2	76.8
March 2021	114.9	84.9
April 2021	117.5	88.3
May 2021	120.0	82.9
June 2021	128.9	85.5
July 2021	125.1	81.2
August 2021	115.2	70.3
September 2021	109.8	72.8
October 2021	111.6	71.7
November 2021	111.9	67.4
December 2021	115.2	70.6
January 2022	111.1	67.2
February 2022	105.7	62.8
March 2022	107.6	59.4
April 2022	108.6	65.2
May 2022	103.2	58.4
June 2022	98.4	50.0
July 2022	95.3	51.5
August 2022	103.6	58.2
September 2022	107.8	58.6
October 2022	102.2	59.9
November 2022	101.4	56.7
December 2022	109.0	59.8
January 2023	106.0	64.9
February 2023	103.4	66.9
March 2023	104.0	62.0
April 2023	103.7	63.7
May 2023	102.5	59.0
June 2023	110.1	64.2
July 2023	114.0	71.5
August 2023	108.7	69.4
September 2023	104.3	67.8
October 2023	99.1	63.8
November 2023	101.0	61.3
December 2023	108.0	69.7
January 2024	110.9	79.0
February 2024	104.8	76.9
March 2024	103.1	79.4
April 2024	97.5	77.2
May 2024	101.3	69.1
June 2024	100.4	68.2

Note: The data are monthly and extend through June 2024.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Conference Board.

Return to text

Figure 21. Consumer credit flows

Annual
Billions of dollars, monthly rate

Period	Credit cards	Auto loans	Student loans
2011	0.09	1.37	8.80
2012	-0.02	4.98	7.99
2013	1.18	5.72	7.61
2014	2.77	6.41	7.53
2015	4.20	6.49	7.04
2016	5.17	6.01	7.10
2017	4.73	3.31	6.97
2018	3.11	2.81	6.51
2019	3.18	3.72	5.91
2020	-10.17	3.35	4.62
2021	5.47	7.54	3.22
2022	13.26	8.90	2.49
2023	8.85	4.65	-2.92

Note: Credit card balances were little changed in 2011 and 2012. The data extend through April 2024.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release G.19, "Consumer Credit."

Monthly
Billions of dollars, monthly rate

Period	Credit cards	Auto loans	Student loans
April 2024	-0.46	2.15	3.12

Note: Credit card balances were little changed in 2011 and 2012. The data extend through April 2024.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release G.19, "Consumer Credit."

Quarterly
Billions of dollars, monthly rate

Period	Credit cards	Auto loans	Student loans
2024:Q1	6.73	1.55	3.56

Note: Credit card balances were little changed in 2011 and 2012. The data extend through April 2024.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release G.19, "Consumer Credit."

Return to text

Figure 22. Mortgage interest rates

Weekly
Percent

Period	Mortgage rates
1 January 2015	3.87
8 January 2015	3.73
15 January 2015	3.66
22 January 2015	3.63
29 January 2015	3.66
5 February 2015	3.59
12 February 2015	3.69
19 February 2015	3.76
26 February 2015	3.80
5 March 2015	3.75
12 March 2015	3.86
19 March 2015	3.78
26 March 2015	3.69
2 April 2015	3.70
9 April 2015	3.66
16 April 2015	3.67
23 April 2015	3.65
30 April 2015	3.68
7 May 2015	3.80
14 May 2015	3.85
21 May 2015	3.84
28 May 2015	3.87
4 June 2015	3.87
11 June 2015	4.04
18 June 2015	4.00
25 June 2015	4.02
2 July 2015	4.08
9 July 2015	4.04
16 July 2015	4.09
23 July 2015	4.04
30 July 2015	3.98
6 August 2015	3.91
13 August 2015	3.94
20 August 2015	3.93
27 August 2015	3.84
3 September 2015	3.89
10 September 2015	3.90
17 September 2015	3.91
24 September 2015	3.86
1 October 2015	3.85
8 October 2015	3.76
15 October 2015	3.82
22 October 2015	3.79
29 October 2015	3.76
5 November 2015	3.87
12 November 2015	3.98
19 November 2015	3.97
26 November 2015	3.95
3 December 2015	3.93
10 December 2015	3.95
17 December 2015	3.97
24 December 2015	3.96
31 December 2015	4.01
7 January 2016	3.97
14 January 2016	3.92
21 January 2016	3.81
28 January 2016	3.79
4 February 2016	3.72
11 February 2016	3.65
18 February 2016	3.65
25 February 2016	3.62
3 March 2016	3.64
10 March 2016	3.68
17 March 2016	3.73
24 March 2016	3.71
31 March 2016	3.71
7 April 2016	3.59
14 April 2016	3.58
21 April 2016	3.59
28 April 2016	3.66
5 May 2016	3.61
12 May 2016	3.57
19 May 2016	3.58
26 May 2016	3.64
2 June 2016	3.66
9 June 2016	3.60
16 June 2016	3.54
23 June 2016	3.56
30 June 2016	3.48
7 July 2016	3.41
14 July 2016	3.42
21 July 2016	3.45
28 July 2016	3.48
4 August 2016	3.43
11 August 2016	3.45
18 August 2016	3.43
25 August 2016	3.43
1 September 2016	3.46
8 September 2016	3.44
15 September 2016	3.50
22 September 2016	3.48
29 September 2016	3.42
6 October 2016	3.42
13 October 2016	3.47
20 October 2016	3.52
27 October 2016	3.47
3 November 2016	3.54
10 November 2016	3.57
17 November 2016	3.94
24 November 2016	4.03
1 December 2016	4.08
8 December 2016	4.13
15 December 2016	4.16
22 December 2016	4.30
29 December 2016	4.32
5 January 2017	4.20
12 January 2017	4.12
19 January 2017	4.09
26 January 2017	4.19
2 February 2017	4.19
9 February 2017	4.17
16 February 2017	4.15
23 February 2017	4.16
2 March 2017	4.10
9 March 2017	4.21
16 March 2017	4.30
23 March 2017	4.23
30 March 2017	4.14
6 April 2017	4.10
13 April 2017	4.08
20 April 2017	3.97
27 April 2017	4.03
4 May 2017	4.02
11 May 2017	4.05
18 May 2017	4.02
25 May 2017	3.95
1 June 2017	3.94
8 June 2017	3.89
15 June 2017	3.91
22 June 2017	3.90
29 June 2017	3.88
6 July 2017	3.96
13 July 2017	4.03
20 July 2017	3.96
27 July 2017	3.92
3 August 2017	3.93
10 August 2017	3.90
17 August 2017	3.89
24 August 2017	3.86
31 August 2017	3.82
7 September 2017	3.78
14 September 2017	3.78
21 September 2017	3.83
28 September 2017	3.83
5 October 2017	3.85
12 October 2017	3.91
19 October 2017	3.88
26 October 2017	3.94
2 November 2017	3.94
9 November 2017	3.90
16 November 2017	3.95
23 November 2017	3.92
30 November 2017	3.90
7 December 2017	3.94
14 December 2017	3.93
21 December 2017	3.94
28 December 2017	3.99
4 January 2018	3.95
11 January 2018	3.99
18 January 2018	4.04
25 January 2018	4.15
1 February 2018	4.22
8 February 2018	4.32
15 February 2018	4.38
22 February 2018	4.40
1 March 2018	4.43
8 March 2018	4.46
15 March 2018	4.44
22 March 2018	4.45
29 March 2018	4.44
5 April 2018	4.40
12 April 2018	4.42
19 April 2018	4.47
26 April 2018	4.58
3 May 2018	4.55
10 May 2018	4.55
17 May 2018	4.61
24 May 2018	4.66
31 May 2018	4.56
7 June 2018	4.54
14 June 2018	4.62
21 June 2018	4.57
28 June 2018	4.55
5 July 2018	4.52
12 July 2018	4.53
19 July 2018	4.52
26 July 2018	4.54
2 August 2018	4.60
9 August 2018	4.59
16 August 2018	4.53
23 August 2018	4.51
30 August 2018	4.52
6 September 2018	4.54
13 September 2018	4.60
20 September 2018	4.65
27 September 2018	4.72
4 October 2018	4.71
11 October 2018	4.90
18 October 2018	4.85
25 October 2018	4.86
1 November 2018	4.83
8 November 2018	4.94
15 November 2018	4.94
22 November 2018	4.81
29 November 2018	4.81
6 December 2018	4.75
13 December 2018	4.63
20 December 2018	4.62
27 December 2018	4.55
3 January 2019	4.51
10 January 2019	4.45
17 January 2019	4.45
24 January 2019	4.45
31 January 2019	4.46
7 February 2019	4.41
14 February 2019	4.37
21 February 2019	4.35
28 February 2019	4.35
7 March 2019	4.41
14 March 2019	4.31
21 March 2019	4.28
28 March 2019	4.06
4 April 2019	4.08
11 April 2019	4.12
18 April 2019	4.17
25 April 2019	4.20
2 May 2019	4.14
9 May 2019	4.10
16 May 2019	4.07
23 May 2019	4.06
30 May 2019	3.99
6 June 2019	3.82
13 June 2019	3.82
20 June 2019	3.84
27 June 2019	3.73
4 July 2019	3.75
11 July 2019	3.75
18 July 2019	3.81
25 July 2019	3.75
1 August 2019	3.75
8 August 2019	3.60
15 August 2019	3.60
22 August 2019	3.55
29 August 2019	3.58
5 September 2019	3.49
12 September 2019	3.56
19 September 2019	3.73
26 September 2019	3.64
3 October 2019	3.65
10 October 2019	3.57
17 October 2019	3.69
24 October 2019	3.75
31 October 2019	3.78
7 November 2019	3.69
14 November 2019	3.75
21 November 2019	3.66
28 November 2019	3.68
5 December 2019	3.68
12 December 2019	3.73
19 December 2019	3.73
26 December 2019	3.74
2 January 2020	3.72
9 January 2020	3.64
16 January 2020	3.65
23 January 2020	3.60
30 January 2020	3.51
6 February 2020	3.45
13 February 2020	3.47
20 February 2020	3.49
27 February 2020	3.45
5 March 2020	3.29
12 March 2020	3.36
19 March 2020	3.65
26 March 2020	3.50
2 April 2020	3.33
9 April 2020	3.33
16 April 2020	3.31
23 April 2020	3.33
30 April 2020	3.23
7 May 2020	3.26
14 May 2020	3.28
21 May 2020	3.24
28 May 2020	3.15
4 June 2020	3.18
11 June 2020	3.21
18 June 2020	3.13
25 June 2020	3.13
2 July 2020	3.07
9 July 2020	3.03
16 July 2020	2.98
23 July 2020	3.01
30 July 2020	2.99
6 August 2020	2.88
13 August 2020	2.96
20 August 2020	2.99
27 August 2020	2.91
3 September 2020	2.93
10 September 2020	2.86
17 September 2020	2.87
24 September 2020	2.90
1 October 2020	2.88
8 October 2020	2.87
15 October 2020	2.81
22 October 2020	2.80
29 October 2020	2.81
5 November 2020	2.78
12 November 2020	2.84
19 November 2020	2.72
26 November 2020	2.72
3 December 2020	2.71
10 December 2020	2.71
17 December 2020	2.67
24 December 2020	2.66
31 December 2020	2.67
7 January 2021	2.65
14 January 2021	2.79
21 January 2021	2.77
28 January 2021	2.73
4 February 2021	2.73
11 February 2021	2.73
18 February 2021	2.81
25 February 2021	2.97
4 March 2021	3.02
11 March 2021	3.05
18 March 2021	3.09
25 March 2021	3.17
1 April 2021	3.18
8 April 2021	3.13
15 April 2021	3.04
22 April 2021	2.97
29 April 2021	2.98
6 May 2021	2.96
13 May 2021	2.94
20 May 2021	3.00
27 May 2021	2.95
3 June 2021	2.99
10 June 2021	2.96
17 June 2021	2.93
24 June 2021	3.02
1 July 2021	2.98
8 July 2021	2.90
15 July 2021	2.88
22 July 2021	2.78
29 July 2021	2.80
5 August 2021	2.77
12 August 2021	2.87
19 August 2021	2.86
26 August 2021	2.87
2 September 2021	2.87
9 September 2021	2.88
16 September 2021	2.86
23 September 2021	2.88
30 September 2021	3.01
7 October 2021	2.99
14 October 2021	3.05
21 October 2021	3.09
28 October 2021	3.14
4 November 2021	3.09
11 November 2021	2.98
18 November 2021	3.10
25 November 2021	3.10
2 December 2021	3.11
9 December 2021	3.10
16 December 2021	3.12
23 December 2021	3.05
30 December 2021	3.11
6 January 2022	3.22
13 January 2022	3.45
20 January 2022	3.56
27 January 2022	3.55
3 February 2022	3.55
10 February 2022	3.69
17 February 2022	3.92
24 February 2022	3.89
3 March 2022	3.76
10 March 2022	3.85
17 March 2022	4.16
24 March 2022	4.42
31 March 2022	4.67
7 April 2022	4.72
14 April 2022	5.00
21 April 2022	5.11
28 April 2022	5.10
5 May 2022	5.27
12 May 2022	5.30
19 May 2022	5.25
26 May 2022	5.10
2 June 2022	5.09
9 June 2022	5.23
16 June 2022	5.78
23 June 2022	5.81
30 June 2022	5.70
7 July 2022	5.30
14 July 2022	5.51
21 July 2022	5.54
28 July 2022	5.30
4 August 2022	4.99
11 August 2022	5.22
18 August 2022	5.13
25 August 2022	5.55
1 September 2022	5.66
8 September 2022	5.89
15 September 2022	6.02
22 September 2022	6.29
29 September 2022	6.70
6 October 2022	6.66
13 October 2022	6.92
20 October 2022	6.94
27 October 2022	7.08
3 November 2022	6.95
10 November 2022	7.08
17 November 2022	6.61
24 November 2022	6.58
1 December 2022	6.49
8 December 2022	6.33
15 December 2022	6.31
22 December 2022	6.27
29 December 2022	6.42
5 January 2023	6.48
12 January 2023	6.33
19 January 2023	6.15
26 January 2023	6.13
2 February 2023	6.09
9 February 2023	6.12
16 February 2023	6.32
23 February 2023	6.50
2 March 2023	6.65
9 March 2023	6.73
16 March 2023	6.60
23 March 2023	6.42
30 March 2023	6.32
6 April 2023	6.28
13 April 2023	6.27
20 April 2023	6.39
27 April 2023	6.43
4 May 2023	6.39
11 May 2023	6.35
18 May 2023	6.39
25 May 2023	6.57
1 June 2023	6.79
8 June 2023	6.71
15 June 2023	6.69
22 June 2023	6.67
29 June 2023	6.71
6 July 2023	6.81
13 July 2023	6.96
20 July 2023	6.78
27 July 2023	6.81
3 August 2023	6.90
10 August 2023	6.96
17 August 2023	7.09
24 August 2023	7.23
31 August 2023	7.18
7 September 2023	7.12
14 September 2023	7.18
21 September 2023	7.19
28 September 2023	7.31
5 October 2023	7.49
12 October 2023	7.57
19 October 2023	7.63
26 October 2023	7.79
2 November 2023	7.76
9 November 2023	7.50
16 November 2023	7.44
23 November 2023	7.29
30 November 2023	7.22
7 December 2023	7.03
14 December 2023	6.95
21 December 2023	6.67
28 December 2023	6.61
4 January 2024	6.62
11 January 2024	6.66
18 January 2024	6.60
25 January 2024	6.69
1 February 2024	6.63
8 February 2024	6.64
15 February 2024	6.77
22 February 2024	6.90
29 February 2024	6.94
7 March 2024	6.88
14 March 2024	6.74
21 March 2024	6.87
28 March 2024	6.79
4 April 2024	6.82
11 April 2024	6.88
18 April 2024	7.10
25 April 2024	7.17
2 May 2024	7.22
9 May 2024	7.09
16 May 2024	7.02
23 May 2024	6.94
30 May 2024	7.03
6 June 2024	6.99
13 June 2024	6.95
20 June 2024	6.87
27 June 2024	6.86

Note: The data are contract rates on 30-year, fixed-rate conventional home mortgage commitments and extend through June 27, 2024.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via Haver Analytics.

Return to text

Figure 23. Distribution of interest rates on outstanding mortgages

Series: Below 6 percent, below 5 percent, and below 4 percent

Horizon: January 2010 to May 2024

Description: A line chart with three curves over January 2010 to May 2024. Units are percent, and the data are monthly. The below 6 percent series begins just above 60 in January 2010. It rises over the time horizon until 2022, increasing the fastest between January 2010 and December 2014. It is around 85 percent in January 2014 and continues to gradually increase before reaching its peak around 95 in May 2022. It then decreases and ends just below 87 in May 2024.

The below 5 percent series stays under the below 6 percent series and above the below 4 percent series over the time horizon. The series begins around 20 in January 2010 and increases at a steady rate, reaching about 68 in December 2014. It then increases at a less substantial rate until September 2018, when it hits 82 before dipping to around 80 in early 2019. From there, the series increases to a peak of about 90 in April 2022 and then begins to decrease, ending a bit above 78 in May 2024.

The below 4 percent series begins just under 4 in January 2010. The series increases to about 35 in January 2014. From there, it moves up at a slower rate until hitting about 48 in late 2016 and fluctuating there through early 2018. The series then dips to around 43 in June 2019 before increasing again to a peak of about 71 in March 2022. It then begins to decease again and ends just above 61 in May 2024.

Note: The sample only includes outstanding mortgages current on their payments.

Source: ICE, McDash®.

Return to text

Figure 24. New and existing home sales

Millions, annual rate

Period	Existing home sales	New home sales
January 2006	5.86	1.17
February 2006	5.98	1.06
March 2006	5.99	1.12
April 2006	5.87	1.12
May 2006	5.75	1.09
June 2006	5.70	1.07
July 2006	5.53	0.97
August 2006	5.56	1.04
September 2006	5.51	1.02
October 2006	5.59	0.94
November 2006	5.56	1.00
December 2006	5.62	1.00
January 2007	5.02	0.89
February 2007	5.08	0.83
March 2007	4.78	0.83
April 2007	4.62	0.89
May 2007	4.59	0.84
June 2007	4.49	0.79
July 2007	4.44	0.78
August 2007	4.28	0.70
September 2007	3.99	0.69
October 2007	3.91	0.73
November 2007	3.94	0.64
December 2007	3.88	0.62
January 2008	3.71	0.63
February 2008	3.64	0.59
March 2008	3.70	0.54
April 2008	3.66	0.54
May 2008	3.68	0.50
June 2008	3.63	0.49
July 2008	3.69	0.48
August 2008	3.74	0.44
September 2008	3.80	0.43
October 2008	3.63	0.39
November 2008	3.39	0.39
December 2008	3.59	0.38
January 2009	3.46	0.34
February 2009	3.57	0.37
March 2009	3.48	0.34
April 2009	3.51	0.34
May 2009	3.58	0.38
June 2009	3.66	0.39
July 2009	3.89	0.41
August 2009	3.96	0.42
September 2009	4.12	0.39
October 2009	4.46	0.40
November 2009	4.83	0.38
December 2009	3.90	0.35
January 2010	3.70	0.35
February 2010	3.74	0.34
March 2010	3.99	0.38
April 2010	4.28	0.42
May 2010	4.34	0.28
June 2010	3.95	0.31
July 2010	3.06	0.28
August 2010	3.25	0.28
September 2010	3.42	0.32
October 2010	3.40	0.29
November 2010	3.56	0.29
December 2010	3.77	0.33
January 2011	3.87	0.31
February 2011	3.67	0.27
March 2011	3.75	0.30
April 2011	3.69	0.31
May 2011	3.66	0.31
June 2011	3.76	0.30
July 2011	3.71	0.30
August 2011	3.88	0.30
September 2011	3.84	0.30
October 2011	3.87	0.32
November 2011	3.93	0.33
December 2011	3.87	0.34
January 2012	3.97	0.34
February 2012	4.07	0.37
March 2012	4.02	0.35
April 2012	4.08	0.35
May 2012	4.09	0.37
June 2012	3.98	0.36
July 2012	4.02	0.37
August 2012	4.21	0.38
September 2012	4.15	0.39
October 2012	4.23	0.36
November 2012	4.36	0.39
December 2012	4.32	0.40
January 2013	4.42	0.45
February 2013	4.44	0.45
March 2013	4.46	0.44
April 2013	4.50	0.44
May 2013	4.55	0.43
June 2013	4.51	0.47
July 2013	4.64	0.38
August 2013	4.62	0.38
September 2013	4.53	0.40
October 2013	4.42	0.44
November 2013	4.32	0.45
December 2013	4.29	0.43
January 2014	4.17	0.44
February 2014	4.19	0.42
March 2014	4.18	0.41
April 2014	4.20	0.40
May 2014	4.31	0.45
June 2014	4.35	0.42
July 2014	4.39	0.40
August 2014	4.40	0.46
September 2014	4.41	0.47
October 2014	4.50	0.48
November 2014	4.39	0.44
December 2014	4.50	0.50
January 2015	4.36	0.52
February 2015	4.50	0.54
March 2015	4.63	0.48
April 2015	4.57	0.50
May 2015	4.65	0.50
June 2015	4.73	0.48
July 2015	4.81	0.51
August 2015	4.74	0.52
September 2015	4.80	0.46
October 2015	4.68	0.48
November 2015	4.20	0.50
December 2015	4.81	0.55
January 2016	4.82	0.51
February 2016	4.66	0.52
March 2016	4.73	0.53
April 2016	4.86	0.58
May 2016	4.82	0.57
June 2016	4.85	0.56
July 2016	4.77	0.63
August 2016	4.78	0.58
September 2016	4.85	0.56
October 2016	4.94	0.58
November 2016	4.88	0.57
December 2016	4.90	0.56
January 2017	5.04	0.57
February 2017	4.84	0.59
March 2017	4.98	0.63
April 2017	4.94	0.60
May 2017	4.95	0.64
June 2017	4.87	0.62
July 2017	4.85	0.57
August 2017	4.77	0.56
September 2017	4.84	0.64
October 2017	4.84	0.63
November 2017	4.98	0.71
December 2017	4.95	0.63
January 2018	4.80	0.59
February 2018	4.88	0.62
March 2018	4.91	0.68
April 2018	4.84	0.64
May 2018	4.82	0.66
June 2018	4.83	0.64
July 2018	4.78	0.63
August 2018	4.71	0.59
September 2018	4.62	0.60
October 2018	4.57	0.55
November 2018	4.60	0.63
December 2018	4.47	0.55
January 2019	4.41	0.60
February 2019	4.73	0.65
March 2019	4.69	0.72
April 2019	4.74	0.70
May 2019	4.87	0.62
June 2019	4.81	0.73
July 2019	4.85	0.65
August 2019	4.88	0.71
September 2019	4.73	0.71
October 2019	4.71	0.72
November 2019	4.69	0.71
December 2019	4.84	0.70
January 2020	4.77	0.69
February 2020	5.04	0.71
March 2020	4.79	0.62
April 2020	4.07	0.58
May 2020	3.74	0.71
June 2020	4.41	0.90
July 2020	5.37	0.98
August 2020	5.40	1.02
September 2020	5.68	0.98
October 2020	5.85	1.03
November 2020	5.76	0.88
December 2020	5.80	0.88
January 2021	5.86	0.90
February 2021	5.42	0.77
March 2021	5.26	0.86
April 2021	5.22	0.84
May 2021	5.17	0.73
June 2021	5.26	0.69
July 2021	5.36	0.73
August 2021	5.30	0.69
September 2021	5.48	0.73
October 2021	5.54	0.68
November 2021	5.72	0.79
December 2021	5.51	0.83
January 2022	5.70	0.80
February 2022	5.23	0.78
March 2022	5.00	0.71
April 2022	4.92	0.64
May 2022	4.76	0.65
June 2022	4.55	0.54
July 2022	4.34	0.52
August 2022	4.24	0.64
September 2022	4.22	0.56
October 2022	4.01	0.58
November 2022	3.74	0.60
December 2022	3.69	0.63
January 2023	3.65	0.64
February 2023	4.08	0.63
March 2023	3.91	0.64
April 2023	3.79	0.69
May 2023	3.79	0.74
June 2023	3.68	0.67
July 2023	3.62	0.70
August 2023	3.60	0.65
September 2023	3.55	0.69
October 2023	3.44	0.67
November 2023	3.50	0.61
December 2023	3.48	0.65
January 2024	3.60	0.66
February 2024	3.97	0.64
March 2024	3.82	0.68
April 2024	3.74	0.70
May 2024	3.71	0.62

Note: The data are monthly. New and existing home sales include only single-family sales.

Source: For new home sales, U.S. Census Bureau; for existing home sales, National Association of Realtors; all via Haver Analytics.

Return to text

Figure 25. Private housing starts and permits

Monthly
Millions of units, annual rate

Period	Single-family starts	Single-family permits	Multifamily starts
January 2007	1.13	1.17	0.28
February 2007	1.19	1.14	0.29
March 2007	1.20	1.15	0.29
April 2007	1.20	1.06	0.29
May 2007	1.13	1.04	0.29
June 2007	1.13	1.00	0.32
July 2007	1.04	0.98	0.31
August 2007	0.96	0.92	0.37
September 2007	0.94	0.86	0.25
October 2007	0.88	0.82	0.39
November 2007	0.83	0.80	0.36
December 2007	0.81	0.74	0.23
January 2008	0.77	0.71	0.31
February 2008	0.72	0.66	0.38
March 2008	0.73	0.64	0.28
April 2008	0.68	0.66	0.33
May 2008	0.68	0.63	0.29
June 2008	0.65	0.61	0.40
July 2008	0.62	0.57	0.31
August 2008	0.61	0.54	0.24
September 2008	0.54	0.53	0.28
October 2008	0.54	0.47	0.24
November 2008	0.46	0.42	0.19
December 2008	0.40	0.36	0.16
January 2009	0.36	0.34	0.13
February 2009	0.36	0.38	0.22
March 2009	0.35	0.36	0.15
April 2009	0.39	0.39	0.09
May 2009	0.41	0.43	0.13
June 2009	0.48	0.46	0.10
July 2009	0.51	0.49	0.09
August 2009	0.49	0.49	0.10
September 2009	0.51	0.48	0.08
October 2009	0.48	0.47	0.06
November 2009	0.50	0.48	0.09
December 2009	0.48	0.51	0.10
January 2010	0.51	0.50	0.10
February 2010	0.53	0.51	0.08
March 2010	0.54	0.54	0.09
April 2010	0.57	0.48	0.12
May 2010	0.46	0.44	0.13
June 2010	0.45	0.43	0.09
July 2010	0.43	0.41	0.12
August 2010	0.42	0.40	0.18
September 2010	0.45	0.40	0.15
October 2010	0.44	0.41	0.11
November 2010	0.45	0.42	0.09
December 2010	0.43	0.45	0.11
January 2011	0.43	0.42	0.20
February 2011	0.39	0.38	0.13
March 2011	0.43	0.40	0.17
April 2011	0.42	0.40	0.14
May 2011	0.41	0.41	0.15
June 2011	0.44	0.41	0.17
July 2011	0.43	0.42	0.19
August 2011	0.42	0.43	0.16
September 2011	0.42	0.43	0.23
October 2011	0.44	0.44	0.17
November 2011	0.47	0.45	0.25
December 2011	0.52	0.46	0.17
January 2012	0.52	0.46	0.21
February 2012	0.47	0.49	0.24
March 2012	0.47	0.48	0.22
April 2012	0.50	0.49	0.25
May 2012	0.52	0.49	0.19
June 2012	0.52	0.50	0.23
July 2012	0.52	0.52	0.22
August 2012	0.54	0.52	0.22
September 2012	0.59	0.56	0.25
October 2012	0.61	0.57	0.30
November 2012	0.57	0.57	0.26
December 2012	0.62	0.58	0.36
January 2013	0.60	0.59	0.28
February 2013	0.65	0.61	0.31
March 2013	0.62	0.61	0.39
April 2013	0.59	0.62	0.25
May 2013	0.61	0.62	0.32
June 2013	0.61	0.63	0.23
July 2013	0.59	0.62	0.29
August 2013	0.63	0.64	0.29
September 2013	0.58	0.63	0.27
October 2013	0.60	0.62	0.33
November 2013	0.70	0.64	0.40
December 2013	0.65	0.60	0.36
January 2014	0.57	0.62	0.32
February 2014	0.59	0.61	0.35
March 2014	0.65	0.62	0.32
April 2014	0.65	0.62	0.40
May 2014	0.65	0.63	0.36
June 2014	0.60	0.65	0.31
July 2014	0.66	0.65	0.43
August 2014	0.64	0.65	0.34
September 2014	0.66	0.66	0.36
October 2014	0.70	0.65	0.38
November 2014	0.66	0.66	0.34
December 2014	0.72	0.67	0.35
January 2015	0.70	0.66	0.38
February 2015	0.58	0.63	0.30
March 2015	0.63	0.66	0.33
April 2015	0.74	0.68	0.45
May 2015	0.71	0.70	0.37
June 2015	0.70	0.71	0.51
July 2015	0.76	0.70	0.39
August 2015	0.73	0.72	0.40
September 2015	0.75	0.71	0.48
October 2015	0.71	0.72	0.35
November 2015	0.77	0.73	0.40
December 2015	0.77	0.72	0.38
January 2016	0.75	0.72	0.34
February 2016	0.86	0.72	0.37
March 2016	0.75	0.74	0.36
April 2016	0.78	0.75	0.39
May 2016	0.75	0.75	0.40
June 2016	0.77	0.75	0.43
July 2016	0.77	0.72	0.47
August 2016	0.73	0.75	0.44
September 2016	0.78	0.75	0.29
October 2016	0.86	0.77	0.45
November 2016	0.82	0.77	0.32
December 2016	0.80	0.81	0.45
January 2017	0.79	0.79	0.41
February 2017	0.86	0.81	0.41
March 2017	0.84	0.83	0.35
April 2017	0.83	0.79	0.32
May 2017	0.83	0.80	0.33
June 2017	0.87	0.82	0.38
July 2017	0.84	0.82	0.37
August 2017	0.87	0.82	0.29
September 2017	0.84	0.83	0.34
October 2017	0.88	0.85	0.38
November 2017	0.92	0.86	0.35
December 2017	0.82	0.86	0.35
January 2018	0.87	0.86	0.43
February 2018	0.89	0.87	0.38
March 2018	0.88	0.85	0.44
April 2018	0.91	0.87	0.37
May 2018	0.97	0.86	0.39
June 2018	0.87	0.86	0.33
July 2018	0.87	0.88	0.34
August 2018	0.90	0.84	0.39
September 2018	0.88	0.86	0.38
October 2018	0.87	0.85	0.35
November 2018	0.78	0.85	0.40
December 2018	0.78	0.81	0.32
January 2019	0.92	0.80	0.31
February 2019	0.78	0.80	0.34
March 2019	0.84	0.81	0.35
April 2019	0.87	0.80	0.40
May 2019	0.84	0.83	0.45
June 2019	0.88	0.85	0.36
July 2019	0.89	0.86	0.35
August 2019	0.91	0.91	0.47
September 2019	0.93	0.91	0.38
October 2019	0.89	0.93	0.43
November 2019	0.92	0.95	0.44
December 2019	1.00	0.94	0.54
January 2020	0.97	0.97	0.61
February 2020	1.02	0.98	0.52
March 2020	0.88	0.88	0.38
April 2020	0.68	0.67	0.25
May 2020	0.75	0.75	0.30
June 2020	0.90	0.86	0.36
July 2020	1.00	1.01	0.53
August 2020	1.05	1.07	0.35
September 2020	1.11	1.14	0.35
October 2020	1.19	1.15	0.36
November 2020	1.18	1.16	0.37
December 2020	1.29	1.24	0.35
January 2021	1.15	1.25	0.49
February 2021	1.05	1.11	0.36
March 2021	1.21	1.17	0.46
April 2021	1.05	1.13	0.44
May 2021	1.11	1.12	0.50
June 2021	1.16	1.08	0.48
July 2021	1.13	1.06	0.47
August 2021	1.11	1.07	0.49
September 2021	1.09	1.06	0.47
October 2021	1.11	1.09	0.48
November 2021	1.22	1.13	0.48
December 2021	1.19	1.15	0.56
January 2022	1.19	1.25	0.52
February 2022	1.20	1.19	0.54
March 2022	1.16	1.14	0.52
April 2022	1.20	1.09	0.63
May 2022	1.06	1.03	0.48
June 2022	1.01	0.95	0.54
July 2022	0.91	0.92	0.49
August 2022	0.92	0.89	0.61
September 2022	0.88	0.86	0.59
October 2022	0.87	0.84	0.57
November 2022	0.80	0.79	0.62
December 2022	0.88	0.74	0.46
January 2023	0.83	0.76	0.53
February 2023	0.83	0.81	0.58
March 2023	0.82	0.85	0.52
April 2023	0.88	0.88	0.49
May 2023	1.00	0.92	0.58
June 2023	0.93	0.95	0.49
July 2023	1.00	0.95	0.47
August 2023	0.94	0.97	0.36
September 2023	0.97	0.98	0.39
October 2023	0.98	0.99	0.39
November 2023	1.13	1.00	0.38
December 2023	1.08	1.02	0.49
January 2024	1.01	1.03	0.37
February 2024	1.13	1.03	0.41
March 2024	1.04	0.98	0.26
April 2024	1.04	0.98	0.32
May 2024	0.98	0.96	0.30

Source: U.S. Census Bureau via Haver Analytics.

Return to text

Figure 26. Growth rate in house prices

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	S&P/Case-Shiller	CoreLogic	Zillow
January 1989	7.40	9.79	4.36
February 1989	7.43	9.89	4.45
March 1989	7.38	10.50	4.57
April 1989	7.21	10.67	4.66
May 1989	6.90	10.25	4.67
June 1989	6.48	9.48	4.54
July 1989	6.04	8.62	4.29
August 1989	5.63	8.14	3.99
September 1989	5.30	7.96	3.73
October 1989	5.00	7.72	3.60
November 1989	4.71	7.50	3.59
December 1989	4.38	6.99	3.64
January 1990	4.01	6.48	3.69
February 1990	3.63	6.18	3.72
March 1990	3.27	5.73	3.74
April 1990	2.94	5.04	3.76
May 1990	2.63	4.65	3.78
June 1990	2.31	4.19	3.80
July 1990	1.95	3.92	3.86
August 1990	1.53	3.31	3.96
September 1990	1.05	2.52	4.01
October 1990	0.50	1.61	3.91
November 1990	-0.09	0.84	3.63
December 1990	-0.68	0.38	3.22
January 1991	-1.24	-0.20	2.73
February 1991	-1.69	-0.83	2.26
March 1991	-1.99	-1.34	1.86
April 1991	-2.10	-1.28	1.60
May 1991	-2.01	-1.07	1.49

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Monetary Policy Report – July 2024