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Federal Open Market Committee

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Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on June 9-10, 2020.

Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2020–22 and over the longer run

Change in real GDP

Percent

  2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
Actual 1.9 2.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - -4.2 7.0 6.0 2.2
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - -5.5 6.0 4.5 2.0
Median - - - - - -6.5 5.0 3.5 1.8
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - -7.6 4.5 3.0 1.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - -10.0 -1.0 2.0 1.6
Unemployment rate

Percent

  2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
Actual 5.0 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.5 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 14.0 12.0 8.0 4.7
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 10.0 7.5 6.1 4.3
Median - - - - - 9.3 6.5 5.5 4.1
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.0 5.9 4.8 4.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 7.0 4.5 4.0 3.5
PCE inflation

Percent

  2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
Actual .3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.4 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.0
Median - - - - - .8 1.6 1.7 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - .6 1.4 1.6 2.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - .5 1.1 1.4 2.0
Core PCE inflation

Percent

  2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Actual 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.3 2.0 2.2
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.1 1.7 1.8
Median - - - - - 1.0 1.5 1.7
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - .9 1.4 1.6
Lower End of Range - - - - - .7 1.2 1.2

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.

Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate

Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level

Midpoint of target range or target level (Percent) 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
3.125        
3.000       2
2.875        
2.750       1
2.625        
2.500       8
2.375       1
2.250       3
2.125        
2.000       1
1.875        
1.750        
1.625        
1.500        
1.375        
1.250        
1.125     1  
1.000        
0.875        
0.750        
0.625        
0.500        
0.375     1  
0.250        
0.125 17 17 15  

Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2020–22 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels.

Number of participants

Percent range 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections
-10.0 - -9.9 1              
-9.8 - -9.7                
-9.6 - -9.5 1              
-9.4 - -9.3                
-9.2 - -9.1                
-9.0 - -8.9                
-8.8 - -8.7                
-8.6 - -8.5                
-8.4 - -8.3                
-8.2 - -8.1 1              
-8.0 - -7.9                
-7.8 - -7.7                
-7.6 - -7.5 1              
-7.4 - -7.3                
-7.2 - -7.1 1              
-7.0 - -6.9 3              
-6.8 - -6.7                
-6.6 - -6.5 1              
-6.4 - -6.3                
-6.2 - -6.1                
-6.0 - -5.9 3              
-5.8 - -5.7                
-5.6 - -5.5 2              
-5.4 - -5.3                
-5.2 - -5.1                
-5.0 - -4.9 1              
-4.8 - -4.7                
-4.6 - -4.5                
-4.4 - -4.3 1              
-4.2 - -4.1 1              
-4.0 - -3.9                
-3.8 - -3.7                
-3.6 - -3.5                
-3.4 - -3.3                
-3.2 - -3.1                
-3.0 - -2.9                
-2.8 - -2.7                
-2.6 - -2.5                
-2.4 - -2.3                
-2.2 - -2.1                
-2.0 - -1.9                
-1.8 - -1.7                
-1.6 - -1.5                
-1.4 - -1.3                
-1.2 - -1.1                
-1.0 - -.9     1          
-.8 - -.7                
-.6 - -.5                
-.4 - -.3                
-.2 - -.1                
.0 - .1                
.2 - .3                
.4 - .5                
.6 - .7                
.8 - .9                
1.0 - 1.1                
1.2 - 1.3                
1.4 - 1.5           1    
1.6 - 1.7       1   2 4 3
1.8 - 1.9   3   10   7 7 7
2.0 - 2.1   10   5 1 5 4 5
2.2 - 2.3   4   1   2 1 1
2.4 - 2.5         2      
2.6 - 2.7                
2.8 - 2.9                
3.0 - 3.1         4      
3.2 - 3.3         1      
3.4 - 3.5         2      
3.6 - 3.7                
3.8 - 3.9         1      
4.0 - 4.1         2      
4.2 - 4.3     1          
4.4 - 4.5     2   1      
4.6 - 4.7     2          
4.8 - 4.9                
5.0 - 5.1     5   2      
5.2 - 5.3                
5.4 - 5.5     1          
5.6 - 5.7     1          
5.8 - 5.9                
6.0 - 6.1     1   1      
6.2 - 6.3     1          
6.4 - 6.5     1          
6.6 - 6.7                
6.8 - 6.9                
7.0 - 7.1     1          

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2020–22 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels.

Number of participants

Percent range 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections
3.2 - 3.3   1   1   1    
3.4 - 3.5   8   4   3 1 1
3.6 - 3.7   5   6   5    
3.8 - 3.9   3   5   3 2 3
4.0 - 4.1       1 1 5 5 5
4.2 - 4.3         1   5 5
4.4 - 4.5     1   1   2 2
4.6 - 4.7             1  
4.8 - 4.9         2      
5.0 - 5.1         3      
5.2 - 5.3                
5.4 - 5.5     2   2      
5.6 - 5.7                
5.8 - 5.9     1          
6.0 - 6.1     2   5      
6.2 - 6.3         1      
6.4 - 6.5     3          
6.6 - 6.7     1          
6.8 - 6.9     1          
7.0 - 7.1 1              
7.2 - 7.3     1          
7.4 - 7.5     3          
7.6 - 7.7                
7.8 - 7.9                
8.0 - 8.1         1      
8.2 - 8.3                
8.4 - 8.5                
8.6 - 8.7                
8.8 - 8.9 1              
9.0 - 9.1 6   1          
9.2 - 9.3 2              
9.4 - 9.5 2              
9.6 - 9.7 1              
9.8 - 9.9                
10.0 - 10.1 2              
10.2 - 10.3                
10.4 - 10.5                
10.6 - 10.7                
10.8 - 10.9                
11.0 - 11.1 1              
11.2 - 11.3                
11.4 - 11.5                
11.6 - 11.7                
11.8 - 11.9                
12.0 - 12.1     1          
12.2 - 12.3                
12.4 - 12.5                
12.6 - 12.7                
12.8 - 12.9                
13.0 - 13.1                
13.2 - 13.3                
13.4 - 13.5                
13.6 - 13.7                
13.8 - 13.9                
14.0 - 14.1 1              

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2020–22 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels.

Number of participants

Percent range 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections
.5 - .6 4              
.7 - .8 8              
.9 - 1.0 4              
1.1 - 1.2 1   1          
1.3 - 1.4     3   1      
1.5 - 1.6     7   4      
1.7 - 1.8   7 3 1 9 1    
1.9 - 2.0   9 3 11 2 9 17 17
2.1 - 2.2   1   4 1 7    
2.3 - 2.4       1        

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2020–22

Histograms, three panels.

Number of participants

Percent range 2020 2021 2022
June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections
.7 - .8 1          
.9 - 1.0 9          
1.1 - 1.2 6   1   1  
1.3 - 1.4 1   4      
1.5 - 1.6     8   6  
1.7 - 1.8   3 2 2 7 1
1.9 - 2.0   13 2 10 2 9
2.1 - 2.2   1   4 1 7
2.3 - 2.4       1    

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' judgments of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate, 2020–22 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels.

Number of participants

Percent range 2020 2021 2022 Longer run
June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections June projections December projections
0.13 - 0.37 17   17   15      
0.38 - 0.62         1      
0.63 - 0.87                
0.88 - 1.12                
1.13 - 1.37         1      
1.38 - 1.62                
1.63 - 1.87   13   5   1    
1.88 - 2.12   4   4   5 1 1
2.13 - 2.37       5   3 3 2
2.38 - 2.62       3   4 9 9
2.63 - 2.87           2 1 2
2.88 - 3.12           2 2 1
3.13 - 3.37               1

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in projections of GDP growth

FOMC participants' assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections

Histograms, eight panels.

Uncertainty about GDP growth

Number of participants

  Lower Broadly Similar Higher
June projections 0 0 17
December projections 0 13 4
Risks to GDP growth

Number of participants

  Weighted to Downside Broadly Balanced Weighted to Upside
June projections 13 3 1
December projections 9 8 0
Uncertainty about the unemployment rate

Number of participants

  Lower Broadly Similar Higher
June projections 0 0 17
December projections 1 11 5
Risks to the unemployment rate

Number of participants

  Weighted to Downside Broadly Balanced Weighted to Upside
June projections 1 3 13
December projections 1 7 9
Uncertainty about PCE inflation

Number of participants

  Lower Broadly Similar Higher
June projections 0 0 17
December projections 0 15 2
Risks to PCE inflation

Number of participants

  Weighted to Downside Broadly Balanced Weighted to Upside
June projections 13 4 0
December projections 6 11 0
Uncertainty about core PCE inflation

Number of participants

  Lower Broadly Similar Higher
June projections 0 0 17
December projections 0 15 2
Risks to core PCE inflation

Number of participants

  Weighted to Downside Broadly Balanced Weighted to Upside
June projections 13 4 0
December projections 6 11 0
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Last Update: July 01, 2020