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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Accessible Version


Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released with the FOMC minutes

Percent

Variable Median1 Central tendency2 Range3
2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Change in real GDP 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 - 1.9 1.9 - 2.3 1.8 - 2.2 1.8 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.0 1.7 - 2.4 1.7 - 2.3 1.5 - 2.2 1.6 - 2.2
September projection 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 - 1.9 1.9 - 2.2 1.8 - 2.1 1.7 - 2.0 1.7 - 2.0 1.7 - 2.0 1.6 - 2.5 1.5 - 2.3 1.6 - 2.2 1.6 - 2.2
Unemployment rate 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.7 - 4.8 4.5 - 4.6 4.3 - 4.7 4.3 - 4.8 4.7 - 5.0 4.7 - 4.8 4.4 - 4.7 4.2 - 4.7 4.1 - 4.8 4.5 - 5.0
September projection 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 - 4.9 4.5 - 4.7 4.4 - 4.7 4.4 - 4.8 4.7 - 5.0 4.7 - 4.9 4.4 - 4.8 4.3 - 4.9 4.2 - 5.0 4.5 - 5.0
PCE inflation 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.7 - 2.0 1.9 - 2.0 2.0 - 2.1 2.0 1.5 - 1.6 1.7 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.2 1.8 - 2.2 2.0
September projection 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.2 - 1.4 1.7 - 1.9 1.8 - 2.0 1.9 - 2.0 2.0 1.1 - 1.7 1.5 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.1 2.0
Core PCE inflation4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.7 - 1.8 1.8 - 1.9 1.9 - 2.0 2.0 1.6 - 1.8 1.7 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.2 1.8 - 2.2
September projection 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 - 1.8 1.7 - 1.9 1.9 - 2.0 2.0 1.5 - 2.0 1.6 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.0 1.8 - 2.1
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.0 0.6 1.1 - 1.6 1.9 - 2.6 2.4 - 3.3 2.8 - 3.0 0.6 0.9 - 2.1 0.9 - 3.4 0.9 - 3.9 2.5 - 3.8
September projection 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.9 0.6 - 0.9 1.1 - 1.8 1.9 - 2.8 2.4 - 3.0 2.8 - 3.0 0.4 - 1.1 0.6 - 2.1 0.6 - 3.1 0.6 - 3.8 2.5 - 3.8

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The September projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on September 20-21, 2016. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the September 20-21, 2016, meeting, and one participant did not submit such projections in conjunction with the December 13-14, 2016, meeting.

1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections.  Return to table

2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.  Return to table

3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.  Return to table

4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.  Return to table

Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016-19 and over the longer run

Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for years 2016 through 2019 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2011 through 2015.

Change in real GDP
Percent

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Actual 1.7 1.3 2.7 2.5 1.9 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0
Median - - - - - 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6

Unemployment rate
Percent

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Actual 8.7 7.8 7.0 5.7 5.0 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0
Median - - - - - 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.5

PCE inflation
Percent

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Actual 2.7 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.4 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0
Median - - - - - 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.

Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate

Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level

Midpoint of target range
or target level (Percent)
2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
0.125
0.250
0.375
0.500
0.625 17
0.750
0.875 2 1 1
1.000
1.125 4
1.250
1.375 6
1.500
1.625 3 1
1.750 1
1.875 5
2.000
2.125 1 3 1
2.250
2.375 2 2
2.500 1
2.625 2 3
2.750 6
2.875 2
3.000 1 2 7
3.125 2
3.250 1 2
3.375 1
3.500 1
3.625 1
3.750 1
3.875 1

Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.

Last update: December 14, 2016