Accessible Version

Accessible Version

Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate

Philip N. Jefferson
Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board

FRB Philadelphia–Economic Mobility Summit

April 22, 2025

Disclaimer: The views I will express today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System.

Roadmap for Talk
  • Taking stock of economic mobility
  • Does meeting the dual mandate facilitate economic mobility?
    • Full employment and economic opportunity
    • Price stability and the relative price of human capital
  • Does economic mobility matter for the conduct of monetary policy?
  • Conclusion
Figure 1: Relative Intergenerational Mobility
Parent Income Rank National (Slope:0.288) Child Income Rank
0 34.1
1 35.0
2 35.7
3 36.3
4 37.0
5 37.2
6 37.6
7 38.1
8 38.4
9 38.5
10 39.1
11 39.4
12 39.6
13 39.9
14 40.2
15 40.5
16 40.6
17 40.9
18 41.3
19 41.5
20 41.7
21 42.0
22 42.5
23 42.6
24 43.0
25 43.2
26 43.6
27 43.7
28 43.9
29 44.3
30 44.5
31 44.8
32 45.2
33 45.5
34 45.8
35 46.0
36 46.3
37 46.8
38 46.9
39 47.2
40 47.4
41 47.5
42 47.8
43 48.3
44 48.6
45 48.8
46 48.8
47 48.9
48 49.5
49 49.7
50 50.2
51 50.4
52 50.5
53 50.9
54 51.1
55 51.1
56 51.6
57 51.7
58 52.0
59 52.3
60 52.7
61 52.8
62 53.0
63 53.4
64 53.8
65 54.0
66 54.2
67 54.4
68 54.6
69 55.1
70 55.3
71 55.7
72 55.9
73 56.2
74 56.4
75 56.6
76 57.1
77 57.5
78 57.9
79 58.0
80 58.4
81 58.5
82 59.0
83 59.3
84 59.6
85 59.9
86 60.5
87 60.8
88 61.3
89 61.6
90 62.3
91 62.7
92 63.2
93 63.6
94 64.1
95 64.2
96 64.6
97 64.7
98 65.1
99 64.5

Note: The figure shows the mean value of child income rank as an adult for each value of parent income rank and the fitted values from a regression.

Source: “Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States.” Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan. August 2020.

Figure 2: Unemployment Rate

Percent

Date National
Jan-95 5.6
Feb-95 5.4
Mar-95 5.4
Apr-95 5.8
May-95 5.6
Jun-95 5.6
Jul-95 5.7
Aug-95 5.7
Sep-95 5.6
Oct-95 5.5
Nov-95 5.6
Dec-95 5.6
Jan-96 5.6
Feb-96 5.5
Mar-96 5.5
Apr-96 5.6
May-96 5.6
Jun-96 5.3
Jul-96 5.5
Aug-96 5.1
Sep-96 5.2
Oct-96 5.2
Nov-96 5.4
Dec-96 5.4
Jan-97 5.3
Feb-97 5.2
Mar-97 5.2
Apr-97 5.1
May-97 4.9
Jun-97 5.0
Jul-97 4.9
Aug-97 4.8
Sep-97 4.9
Oct-97 4.7
Nov-97 4.6
Dec-97 4.7
Jan-98 4.6
Feb-98 4.6
Mar-98 4.7
Apr-98 4.3
May-98 4.4
Jun-98 4.5
Jul-98 4.5
Aug-98 4.5
Sep-98 4.6
Oct-98 4.5
Nov-98 4.4
Dec-98 4.4
Jan-99 4.3
Feb-99 4.4
Mar-99 4.2
Apr-99 4.3
May-99 4.2
Jun-99 4.3
Jul-99 4.3
Aug-99 4.2
Sep-99 4.2
Oct-99 4.1
Nov-99 4.1
Dec-99 4.0
Jan-00 4.0
Feb-00 4.1
Mar-00 4.0
Apr-00 3.8
May-00 4.0
Jun-00 4.0
Jul-00 4.0
Aug-00 4.1
Sep-00 3.9
Oct-00 3.9
Nov-00 3.9
Dec-00 3.9
Jan-01 4.2
Feb-01 4.2
Mar-01 4.3
Apr-01 4.4
May-01 4.3
Jun-01 4.5
Jul-01 4.6
Aug-01 4.9
Sep-01 5.0
Oct-01 5.3
Nov-01 5.5
Dec-01 5.7
Jan-02 5.7
Feb-02 5.7
Mar-02 5.7
Apr-02 5.9
May-02 5.8
Jun-02 5.8
Jul-02 5.8
Aug-02 5.7
Sep-02 5.7
Oct-02 5.7
Nov-02 5.9
Dec-02 6.0
Jan-03 5.8
Feb-03 5.9
Mar-03 5.9
Apr-03 6.0
May-03 6.1
Jun-03 6.3
Jul-03 6.2
Aug-03 6.1
Sep-03 6.1
Oct-03 6.0
Nov-03 5.8
Dec-03 5.7
Jan-04 5.7
Feb-04 5.6
Mar-04 5.8
Apr-04 5.6
May-04 5.6
Jun-04 5.6
Jul-04 5.5
Aug-04 5.4
Sep-04 5.4
Oct-04 5.5
Nov-04 5.4
Dec-04 5.4
Jan-05 5.3
Feb-05 5.4
Mar-05 5.2
Apr-05 5.2
May-05 5.1
Jun-05 5.0
Jul-05 5.0
Aug-05 4.9
Sep-05 5.0
Oct-05 5.0
Nov-05 5.0
Dec-05 4.9
Jan-06 4.7
Feb-06 4.8
Mar-06 4.7
Apr-06 4.7
May-06 4.6
Jun-06 4.6
Jul-06 4.7
Aug-06 4.7
Sep-06 4.5
Oct-06 4.4
Nov-06 4.5
Dec-06 4.4
Jan-07 4.6
Feb-07 4.5
Mar-07 4.4
Apr-07 4.5
May-07 4.4
Jun-07 4.6
Jul-07 4.7
Aug-07 4.6
Sep-07 4.7
Oct-07 4.7
Nov-07 4.7
Dec-07 5.0
Jan-08 5.0
Feb-08 4.9
Mar-08 5.1
Apr-08 5.0
May-08 5.4
Jun-08 5.6
Jul-08 5.8
Aug-08 6.1
Sep-08 6.1
Oct-08 6.5
Nov-08 6.8
Dec-08 7.3
Jan-09 7.8
Feb-09 8.3
Mar-09 8.7
Apr-09 9.0
May-09 9.4
Jun-09 9.5
Jul-09 9.5
Aug-09 9.6
Sep-09 9.8
Oct-09 10.0
Nov-09 9.9
Dec-09 9.9
Jan-10 9.8
Feb-10 9.8
Mar-10 9.9
Apr-10 9.9
May-10 9.6
Jun-10 9.4
Jul-10 9.4
Aug-10 9.5
Sep-10 9.5
Oct-10 9.4
Nov-10 9.8
Dec-10 9.3
Jan-11 9.1
Feb-11 9.0
Mar-11 9.0
Apr-11 9.1
May-11 9.0
Jun-11 9.1
Jul-11 9.0
Aug-11 9.0
Sep-11 9.0
Oct-11 8.8
Nov-11 8.6
Dec-11 8.5
Jan-12 8.3
Feb-12 8.3
Mar-12 8.2
Apr-12 8.2
May-12 8.2
Jun-12 8.2
Jul-12 8.2
Aug-12 8.1
Sep-12 7.8
Oct-12 7.8
Nov-12 7.7
Dec-12 7.9
Jan-13 8.0
Feb-13 7.7
Mar-13 7.5
Apr-13 7.6
May-13 7.5
Jun-13 7.5
Jul-13 7.3
Aug-13 7.2
Sep-13 7.2
Oct-13 7.2
Nov-13 6.9
Dec-13 6.7
Jan-14 6.6
Feb-14 6.7
Mar-14 6.7
Apr-14 6.2
May-14 6.3
Jun-14 6.1
Jul-14 6.2
Aug-14 6.1
Sep-14 5.9
Oct-14 5.7
Nov-14 5.8
Dec-14 5.6
Jan-15 5.7
Feb-15 5.5
Mar-15 5.4
Apr-15 5.4
May-15 5.6
Jun-15 5.3
Jul-15 5.2
Aug-15 5.1
Sep-15 5.0
Oct-15 5.0
Nov-15 5.1
Dec-15 5.0
Jan-16 4.8
Feb-16 4.9
Mar-16 5.0
Apr-16 5.1
May-16 4.8
Jun-16 4.9
Jul-16 4.8
Aug-16 4.9
Sep-16 5.0
Oct-16 4.9
Nov-16 4.7
Dec-16 4.7
Jan-17 4.7
Feb-17 4.6
Mar-17 4.4
Apr-17 4.4
May-17 4.4
Jun-17 4.3
Jul-17 4.3
Aug-17 4.4
Sep-17 4.3
Oct-17 4.2
Nov-17 4.2
Dec-17 4.1
Jan-18 4.0
Feb-18 4.1
Mar-18 4.0
Apr-18 4.0
May-18 3.8
Jun-18 4.0
Jul-18 3.8
Aug-18 3.8
Sep-18 3.7
Oct-18 3.8
Nov-18 3.8
Dec-18 3.9
Jan-19 4.0
Feb-19 3.8
Mar-19 3.8
Apr-19 3.7
May-19 3.6
Jun-19 3.6
Jul-19 3.7
Aug-19 3.6
Sep-19 3.5
Oct-19 3.6
Nov-19 3.6
Dec-19 3.6
Jan-20 3.6
Feb-20 3.5
Mar-20 4.4
Apr-20 14.8
May-20 13.2
Jun-20 11.0
Jul-20 10.2
Aug-20 8.4
Sep-20 7.8
Oct-20 6.9
Nov-20 6.7
Dec-20 6.7
Jan-21 6.4
Feb-21 6.2
Mar-21 6.1
Apr-21 6.1
May-21 5.8
Jun-21 5.9
Jul-21 5.4
Aug-21 5.1
Sep-21 4.7
Oct-21 4.5
Nov-21 4.2
Dec-21 3.9
Jan-22 4.0
Feb-22 3.8
Mar-22 3.7
Apr-22 3.7
May-22 3.6
Jun-22 3.6
Jul-22 3.5
Aug-22 3.6
Sep-22 3.5
Oct-22 3.6
Nov-22 3.6
Dec-22 3.5
Jan-23 3.5
Feb-23 3.6
Mar-23 3.5
Apr-23 3.4
May-23 3.6
Jun-23 3.6
Jul-23 3.5
Aug-23 3.7
Sep-23 3.8
Oct-23 3.9
Nov-23 3.7
Dec-23 3.8
Jan-24 3.7
Feb-24 3.9
Mar-24 3.9
Apr-24 3.9
May-24 4.0
Jun-24 4.1
Jul-24 4.2
Aug-24 4.2
Sep-24 4.1
Oct-24 4.1
Nov-24 4.2
Dec-24 4.1
Jan-25 4.0

Notes: The unemployment statistics only consider persons aged 25 and older. The grey shaded bars indicate periods of business cycle recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Haver Analytics.

Figure 3: Unemployment Rate by Education

Percent

Date National Less than High School High School Some College Bachelors Degree or Higher
Jan-95 5.6 9.2 5.0 4.0 2.4
Feb-95 5.4 8.9 4.7 3.7 2.3
Mar-95 5.4 8.0 4.5 4.1 2.5
Apr-95 5.8 8.8 5.1 4.1 2.7
May-95 5.6 8.7 5.0 4.2 2.5
Jun-95 5.6 8.7 4.7 4.1 2.6
Jul-95 5.7 9.0 4.7 4.1 2.5
Aug-95 5.7 9.5 4.5 4.0 2.5
Sep-95 5.6 9.1 4.7 3.8 2.4
Oct-95 5.5 9.1 4.5 3.9 2.4
Nov-95 5.6 9.3 4.8 4.1 2.3
Dec-95 5.6 9.2 4.7 3.7 2.4
Jan-96 5.6 8.7 4.9 3.9 2.4
Feb-96 5.5 8.9 4.7 3.8 2.3
Mar-96 5.5 9.2 4.7 3.7 2.2
Apr-96 5.6 9.1 4.8 3.8 2.3
May-96 5.6 9.7 4.8 3.8 2.3
Jun-96 5.3 8.6 4.6 3.8 2.2
Jul-96 5.5 8.8 4.7 3.7 2.2
Aug-96 5.1 8.5 4.4 3.7 2.1
Sep-96 5.2 8.2 4.5 3.7 2.2
Oct-96 5.2 7.8 4.6 3.7 2.2
Nov-96 5.4 8.4 4.6 3.7 2.3
Dec-96 5.4 8.3 4.5 3.7 2.3
Jan-97 5.3 8.8 4.5 3.5 2.1
Feb-97 5.2 8.8 4.6 3.5 2.1
Mar-97 5.2 8.3 4.4 3.5 2.0
Apr-97 5.1 8.4 4.3 3.4 2.0
May-97 4.9 8.5 4.2 3.0 2.2
Jun-97 5.0 8.2 4.3 3.3 2.0
Jul-97 4.9 7.7 4.2 3.1 2.1
Aug-97 4.8 7.6 4.2 3.2 2.1
Sep-97 4.9 8.0 4.1 3.3 2.1
Oct-97 4.7 7.8 4.1 2.9 1.9
Nov-97 4.6 7.4 3.8 3.1 1.7
Dec-97 4.7 7.5 4.0 3.3 1.8
Jan-98 4.6 7.0 4.0 3.2 1.9
Feb-98 4.6 7.1 4.0 3.1 1.9
Mar-98 4.7 7.1 4.2 3.2 1.8
Apr-98 4.3 7.2 3.9 2.7 1.7
May-98 4.4 7.0 3.7 3.2 1.7
Jun-98 4.5 7.2 4.0 2.8 1.7
Jul-98 4.5 7.2 4.1 2.9 1.7
Aug-98 4.5 7.1 3.9 2.7 1.8
Sep-98 4.6 6.9 4.1 3.0 1.7
Oct-98 4.5 6.9 4.0 3.0 1.9
Nov-98 4.4 7.1 3.9 2.9 1.9
Dec-98 4.4 6.9 3.8 2.9 1.8
Jan-99 4.3 7.1 3.5 2.9 1.8
Feb-99 4.4 7.5 3.5 3.1 1.9
Mar-99 4.2 6.1 3.5 2.9 1.9
Apr-99 4.3 6.9 3.5 3.0 2.0
May-99 4.2 6.8 3.5 2.9 1.9
Jun-99 4.3 6.8 3.8 2.4 2.0
Jul-99 4.3 6.9 3.6 3.0 1.8
Aug-99 4.2 7.1 3.5 3.0 1.6
Sep-99 4.2 6.9 3.7 2.7 1.7
Oct-99 4.1 6.6 3.4 2.7 1.7
Nov-99 4.1 6.4 3.2 2.7 1.7
Dec-99 4.0 5.8 3.5 2.5 1.7
Jan-00 4.0 6.4 3.4 2.6 1.8
Feb-00 4.1 6.0 3.4 3.0 1.6
Mar-00 4.0 6.6 3.3 2.8 1.7
Apr-00 3.8 6.2 3.3 2.6 1.5
May-00 4.0 6.9 3.4 2.6 1.6
Jun-00 4.0 6.3 3.4 2.7 1.6
Jul-00 4.0 6.4 3.4 2.8 1.7
Aug-00 4.1 6.2 3.7 2.8 1.9
Sep-00 3.9 6.1 3.5 2.6 1.9
Oct-00 3.9 6.5 3.6 2.4 1.6
Nov-00 3.9 6.5 3.5 2.6 1.5
Dec-00 3.9 5.9 3.5 2.7 1.5
Jan-01 4.2 6.7 3.8 3.0 1.6
Feb-01 4.2 7.5 3.7 2.8 1.6
Mar-01 4.3 6.8 3.8 2.7 2.0
Apr-01 4.4 6.8 3.7 2.9 2.1
May-01 4.3 6.6 3.9 3.0 2.1
Jun-01 4.5 6.9 3.8 3.0 2.2
Jul-01 4.6 6.8 4.1 3.0 2.2
Aug-01 4.9 7.2 4.4 3.3 2.3
Sep-01 5.0 7.7 4.4 3.4 2.5
Oct-01 5.3 7.6 4.7 4.1 2.6
Nov-01 5.5 8.0 5.0 4.2 2.9
Dec-01 5.7 8.3 4.9 4.2 3.0
Jan-02 5.7 8.2 5.3 4.2 2.9
Feb-02 5.7 8.3 5.3 4.3 2.9
Mar-02 5.7 8.1 5.4 4.3 2.8
Apr-02 5.9 9.1 5.5 4.6 2.9
May-02 5.8 8.3 5.5 4.8 2.9
Jun-02 5.8 7.8 5.4 4.6 3.0
Jul-02 5.8 8.6 5.1 4.4 3.0
Aug-02 5.7 8.4 5.2 4.4 2.8
Sep-02 5.7 7.8 5.0 4.6 2.9
Oct-02 5.7 8.7 4.9 4.6 3.0
Nov-02 5.9 9.0 5.2 4.7 2.9
Dec-02 6.0 8.9 5.3 4.9 2.9
Jan-03 5.8 8.8 5.2 4.7 3.0
Feb-03 5.9 8.9 5.4 4.7 3.0
Mar-03 5.9 8.6 5.5 4.8 3.1
Apr-03 6.0 8.5 5.7 4.8 3.0
May-03 6.1 9.0 5.6 4.9 3.0
Jun-03 6.3 9.4 5.7 4.9 3.1
Jul-03 6.2 8.8 5.4 5.0 3.1
Aug-03 6.1 9.3 5.4 4.9 3.2
Sep-03 6.1 8.6 5.3 4.9 3.2
Oct-03 6.0 9.0 5.5 4.8 3.1
Nov-03 5.8 8.7 5.3 4.7 3.1
Dec-03 5.7 7.9 5.4 4.4 3.0
Jan-04 5.7 9.1 4.9 4.5 2.9
Feb-04 5.6 8.6 5.0 4.3 2.9
Mar-04 5.8 8.8 5.3 4.7 2.9
Apr-04 5.6 8.6 5.3 4.1 2.9
May-04 5.6 8.8 5.1 4.0 2.9
Jun-04 5.6 8.7 5.2 4.1 2.7
Jul-04 5.5 8.2 5.0 4.2 2.6
Aug-04 5.4 8.1 4.9 4.1 2.7
Sep-04 5.4 8.7 4.7 4.1 2.6
Oct-04 5.5 8.4 4.8 4.2 2.5
Nov-04 5.4 8.0 4.8 4.3 2.5
Dec-04 5.4 8.1 4.8 4.2 2.5
Jan-05 5.3 7.7 4.7 4.1 2.4
Feb-05 5.4 7.8 4.9 4.2 2.4
Mar-05 5.2 7.8 4.7 3.9 2.4
Apr-05 5.2 8.2 4.4 3.9 2.4
May-05 5.1 7.8 4.5 3.9 2.4
Jun-05 5.0 6.9 4.8 3.9 2.3
Jul-05 5.0 7.5 4.8 3.7 2.3
Aug-05 4.9 7.5 4.7 3.5 2.1
Sep-05 5.0 8.2 4.9 3.7 2.3
Oct-05 5.0 7.3 4.8 3.8 2.3
Nov-05 5.0 7.4 4.8 3.9 2.3
Dec-05 4.9 7.4 4.5 3.9 2.1
Jan-06 4.7 7.0 4.4 3.6 2.1
Feb-06 4.8 7.1 4.4 3.6 2.2
Mar-06 4.7 6.9 4.1 3.7 2.2
Apr-06 4.7 6.9 4.4 3.8 2.2
May-06 4.6 7.0 4.3 3.8 2.1
Jun-06 4.6 7.1 4.1 3.5 2.1
Jul-06 4.7 7.1 4.5 3.6 2.0
Aug-06 4.7 6.8 4.6 3.5 1.8
Sep-06 4.5 6.4 4.1 3.6 2.1
Oct-06 4.4 5.8 4.1 3.4 1.9
Nov-06 4.5 6.6 4.3 3.4 1.8
Dec-06 4.4 6.7 4.3 3.4 1.8
Jan-07 4.6 6.9 4.3 3.8 2.1
Feb-07 4.5 7.3 4.3 3.6 1.9
Mar-07 4.4 6.9 4.0 3.6 1.8
Apr-07 4.5 7.1 4.1 3.6 1.9
May-07 4.4 6.6 4.4 3.4 2.0
Jun-07 4.6 6.7 4.1 3.5 2.0
Jul-07 4.7 7.3 4.6 3.6 2.1
Aug-07 4.6 6.5 4.4 3.6 2.1
Sep-07 4.7 7.6 4.5 3.4 2.0
Oct-07 4.7 7.3 4.6 3.5 2.1
Nov-07 4.7 7.7 4.5 3.3 2.2
Dec-07 5.0 7.7 4.7 3.8 2.1
Jan-08 5.0 7.7 4.7 3.7 2.1
Feb-08 4.9 7.4 4.7 3.8 2.0
Mar-08 5.1 8.4 5.1 3.9 2.1
Apr-08 5.0 7.7 5.0 4.0 2.1
May-08 5.4 8.1 5.0 4.3 2.2
Jun-08 5.6 8.7 5.1 4.3 2.4
Jul-08 5.8 8.6 5.4 4.6 2.5
Aug-08 6.1 9.7 5.8 4.9 2.8
Sep-08 6.1 9.8 6.2 5.0 2.6
Oct-08 6.5 10.3 6.4 5.2 3.1
Nov-08 6.8 10.8 7.0 5.5 3.2
Dec-08 7.3 11.1 7.8 5.7 3.6
Jan-09 7.8 12.4 8.2 6.5 3.9
Feb-09 8.3 13.2 8.5 7.3 4.1
Mar-09 8.7 14.1 9.2 7.5 4.3
Apr-09 9.0 14.9 9.5 7.7 4.4
May-09 9.4 15.2 10.0 7.8 4.8
Jun-09 9.5 15.6 9.7 8.1 4.8
Jul-09 9.5 15.3 9.5 8.0 4.8
Aug-09 9.6 15.6 9.7 8.1 4.8
Sep-09 9.8 14.9 10.6 8.3 5.0
Oct-09 10.0 15.2 11.0 8.7 4.7
Nov-09 9.9 14.7 10.3 8.8 4.8
Dec-09 9.9 15.0 10.6 8.7 4.9
Jan-10 9.8 15.2 10.2 8.6 4.9
Feb-10 9.8 15.8 10.7 8.1 4.9
Mar-10 9.9 14.9 11.0 8.4 4.9
Apr-10 9.9 14.7 10.8 8.4 4.8
May-10 9.6 14.6 10.9 8.2 4.6
Jun-10 9.4 14.2 10.6 8.1 4.4
Jul-10 9.4 13.5 10.0 8.3 4.5
Aug-10 9.5 14.1 10.0 8.7 4.6
Sep-10 9.5 15.6 9.7 8.9 4.5
Oct-10 9.4 15.0 9.8 8.2 4.6
Nov-10 9.8 15.4 10.0 8.6 5.0
Dec-10 9.3 15.0 9.8 8.1 4.8
Jan-11 9.1 14.3 9.5 8.1 4.3
Feb-11 9.0 14.0 9.7 7.9 4.3
Mar-11 9.0 14.1 9.7 7.5 4.4
Apr-11 9.1 14.7 9.9 7.5 4.5
May-11 9.0 14.5 9.6 7.8 4.5
Jun-11 9.1 14.4 10.0 8.3 4.3
Jul-11 9.0 14.5 9.1 8.3 4.2
Aug-11 9.0 14.1 9.3 8.3 4.2
Sep-11 9.0 14.3 9.4 8.5 4.2
Oct-11 8.8 13.5 9.4 8.1 4.3
Nov-11 8.6 12.8 8.8 7.7 4.4
Dec-11 8.5 13.7 8.7 7.6 4.1
Jan-12 8.3 13.0 8.5 7.1 4.3
Feb-12 8.3 13.1 8.3 7.2 4.2
Mar-12 8.2 12.8 8.1 7.5 4.1
Apr-12 8.2 12.5 8.0 7.6 4.0
May-12 8.2 12.9 8.3 7.7 3.9
Jun-12 8.2 12.6 8.5 7.3 4.0
Jul-12 8.2 12.4 8.5 7.2 4.1
Aug-12 8.1 11.8 8.6 6.7 4.1
Sep-12 7.8 11.7 8.5 6.6 4.0
Oct-12 7.8 12.1 8.2 6.9 3.7
Nov-12 7.7 12.0 8.0 6.5 3.9
Dec-12 7.9 11.8 8.0 6.9 4.0
Jan-13 8.0 12.1 8.1 6.9 3.8
Feb-13 7.7 11.3 7.9 6.5 3.9
Mar-13 7.5 11.1 7.7 6.3 3.8
Apr-13 7.6 11.6 7.5 6.4 3.9
May-13 7.5 11.0 7.3 6.5 3.9
Jun-13 7.5 10.7 7.7 6.5 3.8
Jul-13 7.3 10.8 7.5 6.1 3.8
Aug-13 7.2 11.1 7.4 6.1 3.4
Sep-13 7.2 10.5 7.6 6.1 3.7
Oct-13 7.2 10.9 7.2 6.4 3.7
Nov-13 6.9 10.7 7.2 6.4 3.4
Dec-13 6.7 9.8 7.0 6.2 3.3
Jan-14 6.6 9.4 6.5 5.8 3.3
Feb-14 6.7 9.8 6.4 6.0 3.4
Mar-14 6.7 9.4 6.3 6.0 3.4
Apr-14 6.2 8.7 6.2 5.7 3.3
May-14 6.3 9.2 6.5 5.5 3.2
Jun-14 6.1 9.2 5.9 5.2 3.3
Jul-14 6.2 9.5 6.1 5.3 3.1
Aug-14 6.1 9.2 6.1 5.3 3.2
Sep-14 5.9 8.5 5.4 5.4 2.9
Oct-14 5.7 8.1 5.7 4.9 3.0
Nov-14 5.8 8.6 5.7 4.9 3.2
Dec-14 5.6 8.6 5.3 5.0 2.8
Jan-15 5.7 8.3 5.4 5.2 2.8
Feb-15 5.5 8.2 5.4 5.0 2.7
Mar-15 5.4 8.6 5.3 4.8 2.4
Apr-15 5.4 8.4 5.5 4.7 2.7
May-15 5.6 8.7 5.8 4.4 2.8
Jun-15 5.3 8.2 5.4 4.2 2.5
Jul-15 5.2 8.3 5.5 4.3 2.5
Aug-15 5.1 7.9 5.5 4.3 2.4
Sep-15 5.0 7.9 5.3 4.3 2.5
Oct-15 5.0 7.6 5.2 4.4 2.5
Nov-15 5.1 6.8 5.4 4.4 2.5
Dec-15 5.0 6.4 5.6 4.1 2.5
Jan-16 4.8 7.1 5.1 4.3 2.5
Feb-16 4.9 7.0 5.1 4.3 2.5
Mar-16 5.0 7.3 5.3 4.1 2.6
Apr-16 5.1 7.6 5.5 4.2 2.5
May-16 4.8 7.4 5.1 3.9 2.5
Jun-16 4.9 7.6 5.1 4.1 2.5
Jul-16 4.8 6.5 5.1 4.2 2.4
Aug-16 4.9 7.4 5.0 4.2 2.6
Sep-16 5.0 8.7 5.2 4.2 2.5
Oct-16 4.9 7.5 5.5 3.9 2.6
Nov-16 4.7 7.9 5.0 3.9 2.4
Dec-16 4.7 7.5 5.1 3.8 2.5
Jan-17 4.7 7.4 5.2 3.9 2.5
Feb-17 4.6 7.5 4.9 4.1 2.4
Mar-17 4.4 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.5
Apr-17 4.4 6.5 4.6 3.6 2.5
May-17 4.4 6.1 4.7 4.0 2.3
Jun-17 4.3 6.5 4.5 3.7 2.3
Jul-17 4.3 7.1 4.5 3.7 2.3
Aug-17 4.4 6.1 5.0 3.7 2.4
Sep-17 4.3 6.7 4.3 3.6 2.3
Oct-17 4.2 6.0 4.2 3.7 2.1
Nov-17 4.2 5.4 4.4 3.7 2.1
Dec-17 4.1 6.3 4.2 3.6 2.2
Jan-18 4.0 5.4 4.5 3.4 2.1
Feb-18 4.1 5.7 4.4 3.5 2.2
Mar-18 4.0 5.5 4.3 3.5 2.3
Apr-18 4.0 5.9 4.3 3.4 2.1
May-18 3.8 5.2 3.9 3.2 2.0
Jun-18 4.0 5.5 4.1 3.3 2.3
Jul-18 3.8 5.0 4.1 3.1 2.2
Aug-18 3.8 5.6 4.0 3.5 2.0
Sep-18 3.7 5.7 3.7 3.2 2.0
Oct-18 3.8 5.9 4.0 3.0 2.0
Nov-18 3.8 5.9 3.5 3.2 2.2
Dec-18 3.9 5.9 3.8 3.3 2.2
Jan-19 4.0 5.7 3.8 3.5 2.4
Feb-19 3.8 5.3 3.8 3.2 2.2
Mar-19 3.8 5.9 3.7 3.4 2.1
Apr-19 3.7 5.3 3.4 3.1 2.1
May-19 3.6 5.1 3.5 2.7 2.1
Jun-19 3.6 5.2 3.8 3.0 2.1
Jul-19 3.7 4.9 3.6 3.1 2.2
Aug-19 3.6 5.4 3.6 3.0 2.1
Sep-19 3.5 4.9 3.5 2.9 2.0
Oct-19 3.6 5.6 3.7 2.8 2.1
Nov-19 3.6 5.5 3.6 3.0 1.9
Dec-19 3.6 5.4 3.7 2.8 2.0
Jan-20 3.6 5.7 3.9 2.9 1.9
Feb-20 3.5 5.7 3.7 3.1 1.9
Mar-20 4.4 7.2 4.4 3.8 2.5
Apr-20 14.8 21.2 17.7 15.5 8.4
May-20 13.2 19.7 15.9 13.7 7.4
Jun-20 11.0 16.4 12.3 10.8 6.8
Jul-20 10.2 14.9 10.7 9.6 6.7
Aug-20 8.4 12.4 9.9 7.8 5.3
Sep-20 7.8 10.5 9.1 8.2 4.8
Oct-20 6.9 9.8 8.2 6.6 4.2
Nov-20 6.7 9.4 7.7 6.4 4.2
Dec-20 6.7 9.9 7.9 6.4 3.9
Jan-21 6.4 9.0 7.0 6.1 4.0
Feb-21 6.2 10.2 7.1 5.7 3.8
Mar-21 6.1 8.5 6.6 5.9 3.7
Apr-21 6.1 9.4 7.0 6.0 3.5
May-21 5.8 9.0 6.9 5.9 3.1
Jun-21 5.9 10.3 7.0 5.8 3.4
Jul-21 5.4 9.3 6.2 4.9 3.1
Aug-21 5.1 7.6 6.0 5.0 2.8
Sep-21 4.7 7.6 5.7 4.5 2.6
Oct-21 4.5 7.1 5.4 4.3 2.4
Nov-21 4.2 5.6 5.1 3.7 2.3
Dec-21 3.9 5.4 4.5 3.5 2.1
Jan-22 4.0 6.4 4.5 3.5 2.3
Feb-22 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.7 2.1
Mar-22 3.7 5.5 4.0 3.1 1.9
Apr-22 3.7 5.4 3.8 3.1 2.0
May-22 3.6 5.2 3.7 3.4 1.9
Jun-22 3.6 5.7 3.6 3.1 2.0
Jul-22 3.5 5.8 3.6 2.8 2.0
Aug-22 3.6 6.0 4.4 3.0 1.9
Sep-22 3.5 5.5 3.7 2.9 1.8
Oct-22 3.6 6.2 4.0 3.0 1.9
Nov-22 3.6 4.4 3.9 3.2 2.0
Dec-22 3.5 5.0 3.5 2.9 1.9
Jan-23 3.5 4.6 3.7 2.9 2.0
Feb-23 3.6 5.8 3.6 3.3 2.0
Mar-23 3.5 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Apr-23 3.4 5.4 4.0 2.8 1.9
May-23 3.6 5.7 3.9 3.2 2.1
Jun-23 3.6 6.0 3.9 3.1 1.9
Jul-23 3.5 5.2 3.3 3.1 2.0
Aug-23 3.7 5.3 3.9 3.1 2.2
Sep-23 3.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 2.2
Oct-23 3.9 5.7 4.1 3.1 2.1
Nov-23 3.7 6.4 4.1 2.8 2.1
Dec-23 3.8 6.1 4.2 3.1 2.1
Jan-24 3.7 6.0 4.3 3.3 2.1
Feb-24 3.9 6.2 4.2 3.2 2.2
Mar-24 3.9 5.0 4.1 3.4 2.2
Apr-24 3.9 6.0 4.0 3.3 2.2
May-24 4.0 5.9 4.3 3.1 2.1
Jun-24 4.1 6.0 4.2 3.4 2.4
Jul-24 4.2 6.7 4.6 3.5 2.3
Aug-24 4.2 7.0 4.0 3.5 2.5
Sep-24 4.1 6.8 4.0 3.4 2.3
Oct-24 4.1 6.6 4.0 3.4 2.5
Nov-24 4.2 6.0 4.6 3.6 2.5
Dec-24 4.1 5.6 4.3 3.5 2.4
Jan-25 4.0 5.2 4.5 3.5 2.3

Notes: The unemployment statistics only consider persons aged 25 and older. The grey shaded bars indicate periods of business cycle recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Haver Analytics.

Figure 4: Nominal Wage Growth

Percent

Date National
Dec-97 4.7
Jan-98 4.7
Feb-98 4.7
Mar-98 4.7
Apr-98 4.8
May-98 4.9
Jun-98 4.9
Jul-98 5
Aug-98 5
Sep-98 5
Oct-98 5
Nov-98 5
Dec-98 5
Jan-99 5.1
Feb-99 5.1
Mar-99 5.2
Apr-99 5.1
May-99 5.1
Jun-99 5.1
Jul-99 5
Aug-99 5
Sep-99 5
Oct-99 5.1
Nov-99 5.1
Dec-99 5
Jan-00 5
Feb-00 5
Mar-00 4.9
Apr-00 4.9
May-00 4.9
Jun-00 5
Jul-00 5
Aug-00 5
Sep-00 5
Oct-00 5
Nov-00 5.1
Dec-00 5.1
Jan-01 5.1
Feb-01 5.2
Mar-01 5.2
Apr-01 5.2
May-01 5.2
Jun-01 5.3
Jul-01 5.2
Aug-01 5.2
Sep-01 5.2
Oct-01 5.2
Nov-01 5.1
Dec-01 5.1
Jan-02 5.1
Feb-02 5
Mar-02 4.9
Apr-02 4.8
May-02 4.8
Jun-02 4.7
Jul-02 4.6
Aug-02 4.5
Sep-02 4.4
Oct-02 4.3
Nov-02 4.1
Dec-02 4.1
Jan-03 4
Feb-03 4
Mar-03 3.9
Apr-03 3.8
May-03 3.7
Jun-03 3.7
Jul-03 3.7
Aug-03 3.6
Sep-03 3.6
Oct-03 3.6
Nov-03 3.6
Dec-03 3.5
Jan-04 3.5
Feb-04 3.4
Mar-04 3.5
Apr-04 3.4
May-04 3.4
Jun-04 3.4
Jul-04 3.4
Aug-04 3.4
Sep-04 3.4
Oct-04 3.5
Nov-04 3.5
Dec-04 3.5
Jan-05 3.5
Feb-05 3.5
Mar-05 3.5
Apr-05 3.6
May-05 3.6
Jun-05 3.7
Jul-05 3.7
Aug-05 3.7
Sep-05 3.7
Oct-05 3.8
Nov-05 3.8
Dec-05 3.9
Jan-06 3.9
Feb-06 3.9
Mar-06 3.9
Apr-06 4
May-06 4
Jun-06 3.9
Jul-06 3.9
Aug-06 3.9
Sep-06 3.9
Oct-06 3.8
Nov-06 3.8
Dec-06 3.9
Jan-07 3.9
Feb-07 3.9
Mar-07 4
Apr-07 4
May-07 4
Jun-07 4
Jul-07 4.1
Aug-07 4.1
Sep-07 4.2
Oct-07 4.2
Nov-07 4.2
Dec-07 4.2
Jan-08 4.1
Feb-08 4.1
Mar-08 4.1
Apr-08 4.1
May-08 4.1
Jun-08 4.1
Jul-08 4.1
Aug-08 4.1
Sep-08 4
Oct-08 4
Nov-08 4
Dec-08 4
Jan-09 3.9
Feb-09 3.8
Mar-09 3.8
Apr-09 3.7
May-09 3.7
Jun-09 3.6
Jul-09 3.4
Aug-09 3.3
Sep-09 3.1
Oct-09 3
Nov-09 2.8
Dec-09 2.6
Jan-10 2.5
Feb-10 2.4
Mar-10 2.3
Apr-10 2.1
May-10 2
Jun-10 1.9
Jul-10 1.8
Aug-10 1.8
Sep-10 1.8
Oct-10 1.7
Nov-10 1.7
Dec-10 1.8
Jan-11 1.8
Feb-11 1.8
Mar-11 1.8
Apr-11 1.8
May-11 1.9
Jun-11 1.9
Jul-11 1.9
Aug-11 2
Sep-11 1.9
Oct-11 2
Nov-11 2
Dec-11 2
Jan-12 2
Feb-12 2
Mar-12 2
Apr-12 2.1
May-12 2.1
Jun-12 2.1
Jul-12 2.1
Aug-12 2
Sep-12 2.1
Oct-12 2.1
Nov-12 2.1
Dec-12 2.2
Jan-13 2.2
Feb-13 2.2
Mar-13 2.2
Apr-13 2.2
May-13 2.2
Jun-13 2.2
Jul-13 2.2
Aug-13 2.3
Sep-13 2.2
Oct-13 2.3
Nov-13 2.2
Dec-13 2.2
Jan-14 2.2
Feb-14 2.3
Mar-14 2.3
Apr-14 2.3
May-14 2.3
Jun-14 2.3
Jul-14 2.3
Aug-14 2.3
Sep-14 2.4
Oct-14 2.5
Nov-14 2.5
Dec-14 2.6
Jan-15 2.6
Feb-15 2.7
Mar-15 2.8
Apr-15 2.9
May-15 2.9
Jun-15 3
Jul-15 3.1
Aug-15 3.1
Sep-15 3.1
Oct-15 3.1
Nov-15 3.1
Dec-15 3.1
Jan-16 3.1
Feb-16 3.2
Mar-16 3.1
Apr-16 3.1
May-16 3.2
Jun-16 3.2
Jul-16 3.2
Aug-16 3.3
Sep-16 3.4
Oct-16 3.5
Nov-16 3.5
Dec-16 3.5
Jan-17 3.5
Feb-17 3.5
Mar-17 3.5
Apr-17 3.5
May-17 3.5
Jun-17 3.4
Jul-17 3.5
Aug-17 3.5
Sep-17 3.4
Oct-17 3.3
Nov-17 3.3
Dec-17 3.3
Jan-18 3.3
Feb-18 3.2
Mar-18 3.3
Apr-18 3.2
May-18 3.2
Jun-18 3.3
Jul-18 3.2
Aug-18 3.2
Sep-18 3.2
Oct-18 3.3
Nov-18 3.4
Dec-18 3.5
Jan-19 3.5
Feb-19 3.5
Mar-19 3.5
Apr-19 3.6
May-19 3.6
Jun-19 3.7
Jul-19 3.7
Aug-19 3.7
Sep-19 3.7
Oct-19 3.7
Nov-19 3.6
Dec-19 3.7
Jan-20 3.7
Feb-20 3.7
Mar-20 3.7
Apr-20 3.6
May-20 3.7
Jun-20 3.6
Jul-20 3.6
Aug-20 3.6
Sep-20 3.6
Oct-20 3.6
Nov-20 3.6
Dec-20 3.5
Jan-21 3.5
Feb-21 3.5
Mar-21 3.5
Apr-21 3.5
May-21 3.4
Jun-21 3.4
Jul-21 3.5
Aug-21 3.5
Sep-21 3.6
Oct-21 3.6
Nov-21 3.7
Dec-21 3.8
Jan-22 4
Feb-22 4.3
Mar-22 4.5
Apr-22 4.7
May-22 5
Jun-22 5.3
Jul-22 5.5
Aug-22 5.7
Sep-22 5.9
Oct-22 6
Nov-22 6.2
Dec-22 6.3
Jan-23 6.3
Feb-23 6.3
Mar-23 6.4
Apr-23 6.3
May-23 6.3
Jun-23 6.1
Jul-23 6
Aug-23 6
Sep-23 5.8
Oct-23 5.8
Nov-23 5.6
Dec-23 5.6
Jan-24 5.5
Feb-24 5.4
Mar-24 5.2
Apr-24 5.3
May-24 5.2
Jun-24 5.1
Jul-24 5.1
Aug-24 5
Sep-24 5
Oct-24 4.9
Nov-24 4.8
Dec-24 4.7
Jan-25 4.7

Note: Series show the 12-month moving averages of the median percent change in the nominal hourly wage of individuals observed 12 months apart. The grey shaded bars indicate periods of business cycle recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker.

Figure 5: Nominal Wage Growth by Average Wage Level

Percent

Date National Bottom 50% Top 50%
Dec-97 4.7 5.4 4.1
Jan-98 4.7 5.4 4.1
Feb-98 4.7 5.5 4.1
Mar-98 4.7 5.5 4.1
Apr-98 4.8 5.6 4.1
May-98 4.9 5.7 4.2
Jun-98 4.9 5.7 4.2
Jul-98 5 5.7 4.3
Aug-98 5 5.8 4.2
Sep-98 5 5.7 4.3
Oct-98 5 5.7 4.3
Nov-98 5 5.7 4.4
Dec-98 5 5.7 4.4
Jan-99 5.1 5.7 4.5
Feb-99 5.1 5.7 4.5
Mar-99 5.2 5.8 4.6
Apr-99 5.1 5.8 4.5
May-99 5.1 5.7 4.6
Jun-99 5.1 5.6 4.6
Jul-99 5 5.5 4.6
Aug-99 5 5.4 4.7
Sep-99 5 5.4 4.7
Oct-99 5.1 5.5 4.7
Nov-99 5.1 5.5 4.7
Dec-99 5 5.4 4.8
Jan-00 5 5.4 4.8
Feb-00 5 5.3 4.8
Mar-00 4.9 5.2 4.8
Apr-00 4.9 5.2 4.8
May-00 4.9 5.2 4.7
Jun-00 5 5.3 4.8
Jul-00 5 5.2 4.8
Aug-00 5 5.3 4.8
Sep-00 5 5.4 4.8
Oct-00 5 5.3 4.8
Nov-00 5.1 5.4 4.8
Dec-00 5.1 5.4 4.8
Jan-01 5.1 5.5 4.9
Feb-01 5.2 5.5 4.9
Mar-01 5.2 5.5 4.9
Apr-01 5.2 5.6 4.9
May-01 5.2 5.5 5
Jun-01 5.3 5.5 5
Jul-01 5.2 5.5 5
Aug-01 5.2 5.4 5
Sep-01 5.2 5.4 5
Oct-01 5.2 5.3 5
Nov-01 5.1 5.3 5
Dec-01 5.1 5.2 5
Jan-02 5.1 5.2 4.9
Feb-02 5 5.1 4.9
Mar-02 4.9 5 4.9
Apr-02 4.8 4.8 4.9
May-02 4.8 4.8 4.9
Jun-02 4.7 4.6 4.8
Jul-02 4.6 4.5 4.7
Aug-02 4.5 4.5 4.6
Sep-02 4.4 4.4 4.5
Oct-02 4.3 4.2 4.4
Nov-02 4.1 4.1 4.3
Dec-02 4.1 4 4.1
Jan-03 4 4 4.1
Feb-03 4 3.9 4.1
Mar-03 3.9 3.8 3.9
Apr-03 3.8 3.8 3.9
May-03 3.7 3.7 3.8
Jun-03 3.7 3.6 3.8
Jul-03 3.7 3.6 3.7
Aug-03 3.6 3.6 3.7
Sep-03 3.6 3.6 3.6
Oct-03 3.6 3.6 3.6
Nov-03 3.6 3.6 3.6
Dec-03 3.5 3.5 3.6
Jan-04 3.5 3.4 3.5
Feb-04 3.4 3.4 3.5
Mar-04 3.5 3.4 3.5
Apr-04 3.4 3.4 3.5
May-04 3.4 3.4 3.4
Jun-04 3.4 3.4 3.4
Jul-04 3.4 3.4 3.3
Aug-04 3.4 3.4 3.4
Sep-04 3.4 3.4 3.4
Oct-04 3.5 3.4 3.5
Nov-04 3.5 3.5 3.5
Dec-04 3.5 3.5 3.5
Jan-05 3.5 3.5 3.5
Feb-05 3.5 3.5 3.6
Mar-05 3.5 3.5 3.6
Apr-05 3.6 3.5 3.6
May-05 3.6 3.5 3.6
Jun-05 3.7 3.6 3.7
Jul-05 3.7 3.6 3.9
Aug-05 3.7 3.6 3.9
Sep-05 3.7 3.6 3.9
Oct-05 3.8 3.7 4
Nov-05 3.8 3.7 4.1
Dec-05 3.9 3.8 4
Jan-06 3.9 3.8 4
Feb-06 3.9 3.8 4
Mar-06 3.9 3.9 4
Apr-06 4 3.9 4.1
May-06 4 3.9 4.1
Jun-06 3.9 3.9 4
Jul-06 3.9 3.9 3.9
Aug-06 3.9 3.9 3.9
Sep-06 3.9 3.9 3.9
Oct-06 3.8 3.8 3.9
Nov-06 3.8 3.8 3.9
Dec-06 3.9 3.9 3.9
Jan-07 3.9 3.9 3.9
Feb-07 3.9 3.9 3.9
Mar-07 4 4 4
Apr-07 4 4 4
May-07 4 4.1 3.9
Jun-07 4 4.1 4
Jul-07 4.1 4.2 4
Aug-07 4.1 4.2 4
Sep-07 4.2 4.3 4.1
Oct-07 4.2 4.4 4.1
Nov-07 4.2 4.4 4
Dec-07 4.2 4.3 4.1
Jan-08 4.1 4.3 4
Feb-08 4.1 4.3 4
Mar-08 4.1 4.2 4
Apr-08 4.1 4.2 4
May-08 4.1 4.2 4.1
Jun-08 4.1 4.3 4
Jul-08 4.1 4.2 4
Aug-08 4.1 4.1 4
Sep-08 4 4.1 4
Oct-08 4 4.1 4
Nov-08 4 4 4
Dec-08 4 3.9 4
Jan-09 3.9 3.9 4
Feb-09 3.8 3.8 3.9
Mar-09 3.8 3.8 3.8
Apr-09 3.7 3.7 3.7
May-09 3.7 3.7 3.6
Jun-09 3.6 3.5 3.5
Jul-09 3.4 3.4 3.4
Aug-09 3.3 3.2 3.3
Sep-09 3.1 3.1 3.1
Oct-09 3 3 2.9
Nov-09 2.8 2.8 2.8
Dec-09 2.6 2.6 2.6
Jan-10 2.5 2.5 2.4
Feb-10 2.4 2.4 2.3
Mar-10 2.3 2.2 2.2
Apr-10 2.1 2 2.2
May-10 2 1.8 2.1
Jun-10 1.9 1.8 2
Jul-10 1.8 1.7 1.9
Aug-10 1.8 1.7 1.9
Sep-10 1.8 1.7 1.9
Oct-10 1.7 1.6 1.8
Nov-10 1.7 1.6 1.8
Dec-10 1.8 1.7 1.8
Jan-11 1.8 1.6 1.9
Feb-11 1.8 1.7 1.8
Mar-11 1.8 1.7 1.9
Apr-11 1.8 1.7 1.8
May-11 1.9 1.8 1.9
Jun-11 1.9 1.7 2
Jul-11 1.9 1.7 2
Aug-11 2 1.8 2.1
Sep-11 1.9 1.8 2
Oct-11 2 1.8 2.2
Nov-11 2 1.7 2.2
Dec-11 2 1.8 2.2
Jan-12 2 1.8 2.2
Feb-12 2 1.8 2.2
Mar-12 2 1.8 2.2
Apr-12 2.1 1.9 2.3
May-12 2.1 1.9 2.2
Jun-12 2.1 2 2.2
Jul-12 2.1 2 2.1
Aug-12 2 2 2
Sep-12 2.1 2 2.2
Oct-12 2.1 2 2.1
Nov-12 2.1 2.1 2.1
Dec-12 2.2 2.2 2.2
Jan-13 2.2 2.1 2.2
Feb-13 2.2 2 2.4
Mar-13 2.2 2.1 2.4
Apr-13 2.2 2 2.4
May-13 2.2 2 2.5
Jun-13 2.2 1.9 2.5
Jul-13 2.2 2 2.5
Aug-13 2.3 2.1 2.5
Sep-13 2.2 2 2.5
Oct-13 2.3 2.1 2.5
Nov-13 2.2 2.1 2.4
Dec-13 2.2 2.1 2.4
Jan-14 2.2 2.1 2.4
Feb-14 2.3 2.3 2.2
Mar-14 2.3 2.3 2.2
Apr-14 2.3 2.3 2.2
May-14 2.3 2.4 2.2
Jun-14 2.3 2.4 2.2
Jul-14 2.3 2.4 2.2
Aug-14 2.3 2.4 2.2
Sep-14 2.4 2.4 2.3
Oct-14 2.5 2.5 2.4
Nov-14 2.5 2.6 2.5
Dec-14 2.6 2.6 2.5
Jan-15 2.6 2.7 2.6
Feb-15 2.7 2.7 2.7
Mar-15 2.8 2.7 2.8
Apr-15 2.9 2.9 2.9
May-15 2.9 2.9 2.9
Jun-15 3 3.1 2.9
Jul-15 3.1 3.2 2.9
Aug-15 3.1 3.2 2.9
Sep-15 3.1 3.2 2.9
Oct-15 3.1 3.2 2.9
Nov-15 3.1 3.2 3
Dec-15 3.1 3.2 3
Jan-16 3.1 3.2 3
Feb-16 3.2 3.3 3
Mar-16 3.1 3.3 3
Apr-16 3.1 3.4 2.9
May-16 3.2 3.5 3
Jun-16 3.2 3.5 3
Jul-16 3.2 3.5 3
Aug-16 3.3 3.6 3.1
Sep-16 3.4 3.7 3.1
Oct-16 3.5 3.8 3.2
Nov-16 3.5 3.9 3.2
Dec-16 3.5 3.9 3.2
Jan-17 3.5 3.9 3.2
Feb-17 3.5 3.8 3.2
Mar-17 3.5 3.8 3.3
Apr-17 3.5 3.8 3.3
May-17 3.5 3.7 3.2
Jun-17 3.4 3.6 3.3
Jul-17 3.5 3.6 3.3
Aug-17 3.5 3.6 3.3
Sep-17 3.4 3.5 3.4
Oct-17 3.3 3.4 3.3
Nov-17 3.3 3.4 3.2
Dec-17 3.3 3.4 3.2
Jan-18 3.3 3.4 3.2
Feb-18 3.2 3.4 3.1
Mar-18 3.3 3.4 3.1
Apr-18 3.2 3.5 3
May-18 3.2 3.5 2.9
Jun-18 3.3 3.5 3
Jul-18 3.2 3.5 2.9
Aug-18 3.2 3.6 2.9
Sep-18 3.2 3.6 2.8
Oct-18 3.3 3.7 2.9
Nov-18 3.4 3.7 3.1
Dec-18 3.5 3.7 3.1
Jan-19 3.5 3.8 3.1
Feb-19 3.5 3.8 3.2
Mar-19 3.5 3.7 3.2
Apr-19 3.6 3.8 3.3
May-19 3.6 3.9 3.4
Jun-19 3.7 3.9 3.4
Jul-19 3.7 3.9 3.5
Aug-19 3.7 3.9 3.4
Sep-19 3.7 4 3.5
Oct-19 3.7 4 3.5
Nov-19 3.6 4 3.3
Dec-19 3.7 4.1 3.3
Jan-20 3.7 4.1 3.3
Feb-20 3.7 4.2 3.3
Mar-20 3.7 4.1 3.3
Apr-20 3.6 4.1 3.2
May-20 3.7 4.1 3.3
Jun-20 3.6 4 3.3
Jul-20 3.6 4 3.3
Aug-20 3.6 3.9 3.4
Sep-20 3.6 3.8 3.4
Oct-20 3.6 3.9 3.4
Nov-20 3.6 3.8 3.4
Dec-20 3.5 3.8 3.3
Jan-21 3.5 3.8 3.3
Feb-21 3.5 3.8 3.3
Mar-21 3.5 3.8 3.2
Apr-21 3.5 3.7 3.2
May-21 3.4 3.7 3.1
Jun-21 3.4 3.7 3.1
Jul-21 3.5 3.9 3
Aug-21 3.5 4.1 3
Sep-21 3.6 4.3 3
Oct-21 3.6 4.4 3
Nov-21 3.7 4.4 3
Dec-21 3.8 4.7 3.1
Jan-22 4 5 3.3
Feb-22 4.3 5.2 3.5
Mar-22 4.5 5.5 3.6
Apr-22 4.7 5.9 3.8
May-22 5 6.3 4
Jun-22 5.3 6.7 4.2
Jul-22 5.5 6.9 4.3
Aug-22 5.7 7 4.5
Sep-22 5.9 7.1 4.7
Oct-22 6 7.2 4.9
Nov-22 6.2 7.3 5.2
Dec-22 6.3 7.2 5.3
Jan-23 6.3 7.1 5.4
Feb-23 6.3 7.2 5.4
Mar-23 6.4 7.2 5.7
Apr-23 6.3 7 5.7
May-23 6.3 6.8 5.8
Jun-23 6.1 6.5 5.8
Jul-23 6 6.3 5.8
Aug-23 6 6.2 5.8
Sep-23 5.8 6 5.7
Oct-23 5.8 6 5.7
Nov-23 5.6 5.9 5.5
Dec-23 5.6 5.8 5.5
Jan-24 5.5 5.7 5.4
Feb-24 5.4 5.5 5.3
Mar-24 5.2 5.3 5.1
Apr-24 5.3 5.5 5.2
May-24 5.2 5.4 5
Jun-24 5.1 5.3 5
Jul-24 5.1 5.2 5
Aug-24 5 5.1 4.9
Sep-24 5 5.1 4.9
Oct-24 4.9 4.9 4.9
Nov-24 4.8 4.8 4.8
Dec-24 4.7 4.7 4.8
Jan-25 4.7 4.7 4.8

Note: Series show the 12-month moving averages of the median percent change in the nominal hourly wage of individuals observed 12 months apart. Bottom 50% and top 50% are based on average wages. The grey shaded bars indicate periods of business cycle recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker.

Figure 6: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Core Inflation

12-month percent change

Date PCE: Core
Dec-95 2.14
Dec-96 1.86
Dec-97 1.45
Dec-98 1.36
Dec-99 1.44
Dec-00 1.88
Dec-01 1.73
Dec-02 1.77
Dec-03 1.64
Dec-04 2.06
Dec-05 2.28
Dec-06 2.31
Dec-07 2.40
Dec-08 1.14
Dec-09 1.51
Dec-10 1.05
Dec-11 1.97
Dec-12 1.69
Dec-13 1.55
Dec-14 1.36
Dec-15 1.19
Dec-16 1.77
Dec-17 1.57
Dec-18 2.05
Dec-19 1.54
Dec-20 1.51
Dec-21 5.25
Dec-22 4.95
Dec-23 3.03
Dec-24 2.86

Note: Figure plots the 12-month percent change as of December. The blue line shows core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index that excludes food and energy prices. The grey shaded bars indicate periods of business cycle recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 7: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Core & Higher Education Inflation

12-month percent change

Date PCE: Core PCE: Higher Education
Dec-95 2.14 5.87
Dec-96 1.86 5.42
Dec-97 1.45 4.65
Dec-98 1.36 3.93
Dec-99 1.44 3.91
Dec-00 1.88 4.47
Dec-01 1.73 6.08
Dec-02 1.77 7.09
Dec-03 1.64 9.77
Dec-04 2.06 8.64
Dec-05 2.28 6.59
Dec-06 2.31 6.98
Dec-07 2.40 6.11
Dec-08 1.14 5.91
Dec-09 1.51 6.10
Dec-10 1.05 4.16
Dec-11 1.97 6.10
Dec-12 1.69 4.11
Dec-13 1.55 3.92
Dec-14 1.36 3.36
Dec-15 1.19 3.51
Dec-16 1.77 2.34
Dec-17 1.57 2.04
Dec-18 2.05 2.78
Dec-19 1.54 1.78
Dec-20 1.51 0.78
Dec-21 5.25 1.81
Dec-22 4.95 2.28
Dec-23 3.03 1.25
Dec-24 2.86 2.56

Note: Figure plots the 12-month percent change as of December. The blue line shows core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index that excludes food and energy prices. The red line shows the higher education component of the PCE index. The grey shaded bars indicate periods of business cycle recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 8: Relative Intergenerational Mobility by College Type
a. National Child Income Rank
Parent Income Rank National (Slope 0.288)
0 34.1
1 35.0
2 35.7
3 36.3
4 37.0
5 37.2
6 37.6
7 38.1
8 38.4
9 38.5
10 39.1
11 39.4
12 39.6
13 39.9
14 40.2
15 40.5
16 40.6
17 40.9
18 41.3
19 41.5
20 41.7
21 42.0
22 42.5
23 42.6
24 43.0
25 43.2
26 43.6
27 43.7
28 43.9
29 44.3
30 44.5
31 44.8
32 45.2
33 45.5
34 45.8
35 46.0
36 46.3
37 46.8
38 46.9
39 47.2
40 47.4
41 47.5
42 47.8
43 48.3
44 48.6
45 48.8
46 48.8
47 48.9
48 49.5
49 49.7
50 50.2
51 50.4
52 50.5
53 50.9
54 51.1
55 51.1
56 51.6
57 51.7
58 52.0
59 52.3
60 52.7
61 52.8
62 53.0
63 53.4
64 53.8
65 54.0
66 54.2
67 54.4
68 54.6
69 55.1
70 55.3
71 55.7
72 55.9
73 56.2
74 56.4
75 56.6
76 57.1
77 57.5
78 57.9
79 58.0
80 58.4
81 58.5
82 59.0
83 59.3
84 59.6
85 59.9
86 60.5
87 60.8
88 61.3
89 61.6
90 62.3
91 62.7
92 63.2
93 63.6
94 64.1
95 64.2
96 64.6
97 64.7
98 65.1
99 64.5
b. College types Child Income Rank
Parent Income Rank Elite Colleges (Slope: 0.065) Other Four-Year Colleges (Slope: 0.095) Two-Year (Slope: 0.110)
2.5 69.0 55.9 45.1
7.5 69.5 56.5 46.3
12.5 70.1 57.4 47.3
17.5 69.3 57.8 47.8
22.5 71.1 58.3 48.5
27.5 71.3 58.8 49.1
32.5 71.3 59.3 49.8
37.5 70.9 60.0 50.3
42.5 71.4 60.2 50.9
47.5 72.1 60.6 51.3
52.5 71.8 61.2 52.0
57.5 72.5 61.7 52.6
62.5 72.4 62.2 53.3
67.5 72.4 62.7 53.7
72.5 73.6 63.2 54.4
77.5 74.1 63.8 54.8
82.5 74.0 64.2 55.2
87.5 75.0 64.8 55.5
92.5 75.6 65.3 55.6
97.5 75.1 64.1 54.2

Note: The national series shows the mean value of child income rank as an adult for each value of parent income rank and the fitted values from a regression. The series for each college type shows the mean child income rank by parent income ventile and the fitted values from a regression. College types are defined as: elite colleges most competitive by Barrons Profiles of American Colleges, other four-year schools include all four-year institutions except those included in the elite category, two-year includes all two-year institutions.

Source: “Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility Across Colleges in the United States.” Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan. August 2020.

Last Update: April 22, 2025