Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Economic Outlook
Philip N. Jefferson
Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board
Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
May 14, 2025
The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
Figure 1: Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent
| Date | Real GDP Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | -1.0 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.3 |
| 2022-07-01 | 2.7 |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.4 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2.8 |
| 2023-04-01 | 2.4 |
| 2023-07-01 | 4.4 |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.2 |
| 2024-01-01 | 1.6 |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.0 |
| 2024-07-01 | 3.1 |
| 2024-10-01 | 2.4 |
| 2025-01-01 | -0.3 |
Note: Percent change from preceding period, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 2: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent
| Date | Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 0.2 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.1 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.5 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.4 |
| 2022-05-01 | -0.2 |
| 2022-06-01 | 0.1 |
| 2022-07-01 | 0.0 |
| 2022-08-01 | 0.6 |
| 2022-09-01 | 0.2 |
| 2022-10-01 | 0.2 |
| 2022-11-01 | -0.3 |
| 2022-12-01 | 0.1 |
| 2023-01-01 | 1.4 |
| 2023-02-01 | 0.0 |
| 2023-03-01 | -0.2 |
| 2023-04-01 | 0.3 |
| 2023-05-01 | 0.1 |
| 2023-06-01 | 0.1 |
| 2023-07-01 | 0.4 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.0 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.2 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.2 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.4 |
| 2023-12-01 | 0.6 |
| 2024-01-01 | -0.3 |
| 2024-02-01 | 0.2 |
| 2024-03-01 | 0.4 |
| 2024-04-01 | 0.0 |
| 2024-05-01 | 0.5 |
| 2024-06-01 | 0.1 |
| 2024-07-01 | 0.4 |
| 2024-08-01 | 0.1 |
| 2024-09-01 | 0.5 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.1 |
| 2024-11-01 | 0.4 |
| 2024-12-01 | 0.6 |
| 2025-01-01 | -0.4 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.1 |
| 2025-03-01 | 0.7 |
Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 3: Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Date | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 4.0 |
| 2022-02-01 | 3.8 |
| 2022-03-01 | 3.7 |
| 2022-04-01 | 3.7 |
| 2022-05-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-06-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-07-01 | 3.5 |
| 2022-08-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-09-01 | 3.5 |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-12-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-02-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-03-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-04-01 | 3.4 |
| 2023-05-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-06-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-07-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-08-01 | 3.7 |
| 2023-09-01 | 3.8 |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.9 |
| 2023-11-01 | 3.7 |
| 2023-12-01 | 3.8 |
| 2024-01-01 | 3.7 |
| 2024-02-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-05-01 | 4.0 |
| 2024-06-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-08-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-09-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-12-01 | 4.1 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.0 |
| 2025-02-01 | 4.1 |
| 2025-03-01 | 4.2 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.2 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 4: 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims
Thousands
| Date | Jobless Claims |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 221.25 |
| 2022-01-08 | 226.25 |
| 2022-01-15 | 233.75 |
| 2022-01-22 | 239.25 |
| 2022-01-29 | 240.25 |
| 2022-02-05 | 231.00 |
| 2022-02-12 | 228.25 |
| 2022-02-19 | 225.00 |
| 2022-02-26 | 219.50 |
| 2022-03-05 | 222.50 |
| 2022-03-12 | 218.25 |
| 2022-03-19 | 213.75 |
| 2022-03-26 | 215.00 |
| 2022-04-02 | 213.25 |
| 2022-04-09 | 212.25 |
| 2022-04-16 | 212.75 |
| 2022-04-23 | 211.75 |
| 2022-04-30 | 212.75 |
| 2022-05-07 | 210.50 |
| 2022-05-14 | 214.50 |
| 2022-05-21 | 214.75 |
| 2022-05-28 | 210.00 |
| 2022-06-04 | 212.50 |
| 2022-06-11 | 209.50 |
| 2022-06-18 | 210.50 |
| 2022-06-25 | 213.50 |
| 2022-07-02 | 213.75 |
| 2022-07-09 | 213.50 |
| 2022-07-16 | 213.75 |
| 2022-07-23 | 215.75 |
| 2022-07-30 | 219.00 |
| 2022-08-06 | 221.25 |
| 2022-08-13 | 222.25 |
| 2022-08-20 | 221.00 |
| 2022-08-27 | 216.50 |
| 2022-09-03 | 212.25 |
| 2022-09-10 | 206.50 |
| 2022-09-17 | 203.00 |
| 2022-09-24 | 197.75 |
| 2022-10-01 | 197.75 |
| 2022-10-08 | 200.00 |
| 2022-10-15 | 199.50 |
| 2022-10-22 | 202.50 |
| 2022-10-29 | 202.00 |
| 2022-11-05 | 201.50 |
| 2022-11-12 | 204.25 |
| 2022-11-19 | 209.00 |
| 2022-11-26 | 210.75 |
| 2022-12-03 | 212.00 |
| 2022-12-10 | 212.00 |
| 2022-12-17 | 210.25 |
| 2022-12-24 | 209.00 |
| 2022-12-31 | 207.75 |
| 2023-01-07 | 207.25 |
| 2023-01-14 | 204.75 |
| 2023-01-21 | 204.50 |
| 2023-01-28 | 203.50 |
| 2023-02-04 | 205.25 |
| 2023-02-11 | 209.25 |
| 2023-02-18 | 212.75 |
| 2023-02-25 | 215.00 |
| 2023-03-04 | 218.50 |
| 2023-03-11 | 219.25 |
| 2023-03-18 | 222.50 |
| 2023-03-25 | 228.75 |
| 2023-04-01 | 225.75 |
| 2023-04-08 | 225.00 |
| 2023-04-15 | 223.25 |
| 2023-04-22 | 217.25 |
| 2023-04-29 | 216.50 |
| 2023-05-06 | 217.50 |
| 2023-05-13 | 218.00 |
| 2023-05-20 | 222.25 |
| 2023-05-27 | 226.25 |
| 2023-06-03 | 233.75 |
| 2023-06-10 | 242.00 |
| 2023-06-17 | 250.25 |
| 2023-06-24 | 251.75 |
| 2023-07-01 | 250.50 |
| 2023-07-08 | 243.25 |
| 2023-07-15 | 235.25 |
| 2023-07-22 | 234.00 |
| 2023-07-29 | 231.50 |
| 2023-08-05 | 238.75 |
| 2023-08-12 | 243.75 |
| 2023-08-19 | 246.00 |
| 2023-08-26 | 245.00 |
| 2023-09-02 | 237.25 |
| 2023-09-09 | 232.00 |
| 2023-09-16 | 224.50 |
| 2023-09-23 | 219.75 |
| 2023-09-30 | 217.00 |
| 2023-10-07 | 212.75 |
| 2023-10-14 | 210.25 |
| 2023-10-21 | 210.00 |
| 2023-10-28 | 210.25 |
| 2023-11-04 | 211.75 |
| 2023-11-11 | 219.00 |
| 2023-11-18 | 218.75 |
| 2023-11-25 | 218.00 |
| 2023-12-02 | 218.00 |
| 2023-12-09 | 211.75 |
| 2023-12-16 | 210.75 |
| 2023-12-23 | 209.75 |
| 2023-12-30 | 205.25 |
| 2024-01-06 | 204.00 |
| 2024-01-13 | 200.00 |
| 2024-01-20 | 203.25 |
| 2024-01-27 | 210.00 |
| 2024-02-03 | 213.75 |
| 2024-02-10 | 218.50 |
| 2024-02-17 | 213.50 |
| 2024-02-24 | 210.75 |
| 2024-03-02 | 210.25 |
| 2024-03-09 | 210.50 |
| 2024-03-16 | 213.00 |
| 2024-03-23 | 213.00 |
| 2024-03-30 | 215.75 |
| 2024-04-06 | 215.50 |
| 2024-04-13 | 215.00 |
| 2024-04-20 | 213.75 |
| 2024-04-27 | 210.25 |
| 2024-05-04 | 214.50 |
| 2024-05-11 | 217.25 |
| 2024-05-18 | 219.00 |
| 2024-05-25 | 222.00 |
| 2024-06-01 | 222.00 |
| 2024-06-08 | 226.75 |
| 2024-06-15 | 232.00 |
| 2024-06-22 | 235.00 |
| 2024-06-29 | 237.25 |
| 2024-07-06 | 232.50 |
| 2024-07-13 | 233.25 |
| 2024-07-20 | 234.00 |
| 2024-07-27 | 236.50 |
| 2024-08-03 | 239.50 |
| 2024-08-10 | 236.50 |
| 2024-08-17 | 235.50 |
| 2024-08-24 | 231.50 |
| 2024-08-31 | 230.00 |
| 2024-09-07 | 230.50 |
| 2024-09-14 | 228.00 |
| 2024-09-21 | 225.25 |
| 2024-09-28 | 225.00 |
| 2024-10-05 | 232.25 |
| 2024-10-12 | 236.75 |
| 2024-10-19 | 238.50 |
| 2024-10-26 | 236.25 |
| 2024-11-02 | 226.75 |
| 2024-11-09 | 221.50 |
| 2024-11-16 | 218.50 |
| 2024-11-23 | 218.00 |
| 2024-11-30 | 219.00 |
| 2024-12-07 | 224.00 |
| 2024-12-14 | 225.50 |
| 2024-12-21 | 226.25 |
| 2024-12-28 | 222.25 |
| 2025-01-04 | 213.75 |
| 2025-01-11 | 212.50 |
| 2025-01-18 | 213.25 |
| 2025-01-25 | 213.50 |
| 2025-02-01 | 217.75 |
| 2025-02-08 | 217.25 |
| 2025-02-15 | 217.75 |
| 2025-02-22 | 226.00 |
| 2025-03-01 | 226.50 |
| 2025-03-08 | 228.50 |
| 2025-03-15 | 228.75 |
| 2025-03-22 | 224.25 |
| 2025-03-29 | 223.00 |
| 2025-04-05 | 223.25 |
| 2025-04-12 | 221.00 |
| 2025-04-19 | 220.50 |
| 2025-04-26 | 226.00 |
| 2025-05-03 | 227.00 |
Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 5: Job Openings: Total Nonfarm/Unemployment Level
Level in Thous./Thous. Of Persons
| Date | Vacancy/Unemployment Ratio |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 1.73 |
| 2022-02-01 | 1.85 |
| 2022-03-01 | 2.02 |
| 2022-04-01 | 1.98 |
| 2022-05-01 | 1.92 |
| 2022-06-01 | 1.89 |
| 2022-07-01 | 2.01 |
| 2022-08-01 | 1.71 |
| 2022-09-01 | 1.87 |
| 2022-10-01 | 1.76 |
| 2022-11-01 | 1.79 |
| 2022-12-01 | 1.89 |
| 2023-01-01 | 1.81 |
| 2023-02-01 | 1.65 |
| 2023-03-01 | 1.64 |
| 2023-04-01 | 1.74 |
| 2023-05-01 | 1.53 |
| 2023-06-01 | 1.54 |
| 2023-07-01 | 1.45 |
| 2023-08-01 | 1.48 |
| 2023-09-01 | 1.47 |
| 2023-10-01 | 1.32 |
| 2023-11-01 | 1.39 |
| 2023-12-01 | 1.36 |
| 2024-01-01 | 1.38 |
| 2024-02-01 | 1.31 |
| 2024-03-01 | 1.25 |
| 2024-04-01 | 1.17 |
| 2024-05-01 | 1.19 |
| 2024-06-01 | 1.08 |
| 2024-07-01 | 1.06 |
| 2024-08-01 | 1.08 |
| 2024-09-01 | 1.03 |
| 2024-10-01 | 1.09 |
| 2024-11-01 | 1.13 |
| 2024-12-01 | 1.09 |
| 2025-01-01 | 1.13 |
| 2025-02-01 | 1.06 |
| 2025-03-01 | 1.02 |
Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm and Unemployment Level, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 6: 12-Month PCE and Core PCE Inflation
Percent
| Date | PCE Inflation | Core PCE Inflation |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 6.31 | 5.41 |
| 2022-02-01 | 6.59 | 5.65 |
| 2022-03-01 | 6.97 | 5.63 |
| 2022-04-01 | 6.70 | 5.35 |
| 2022-05-01 | 6.80 | 5.19 |
| 2022-06-01 | 7.25 | 5.32 |
| 2022-07-01 | 6.76 | 5.11 |
| 2022-08-01 | 6.64 | 5.36 |
| 2022-09-01 | 6.66 | 5.61 |
| 2022-10-01 | 6.46 | 5.46 |
| 2022-11-01 | 6.02 | 5.20 |
| 2022-12-01 | 5.51 | 4.95 |
| 2023-01-01 | 5.53 | 4.95 |
| 2023-02-01 | 5.21 | 4.86 |
| 2023-03-01 | 4.42 | 4.77 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.46 | 4.78 |
| 2023-05-01 | 3.98 | 4.71 |
| 2023-06-01 | 3.26 | 4.37 |
| 2023-07-01 | 3.37 | 4.27 |
| 2023-08-01 | 3.39 | 3.78 |
| 2023-09-01 | 3.42 | 3.66 |
| 2023-10-01 | 2.99 | 3.44 |
| 2023-11-01 | 2.70 | 3.22 |
| 2023-12-01 | 2.70 | 3.04 |
| 2024-01-01 | 2.61 | 3.06 |
| 2024-02-01 | 2.59 | 2.93 |
| 2024-03-01 | 2.81 | 2.98 |
| 2024-04-01 | 2.72 | 2.89 |
| 2024-05-01 | 2.57 | 2.67 |
| 2024-06-01 | 2.44 | 2.63 |
| 2024-07-01 | 2.47 | 2.67 |
| 2024-08-01 | 2.28 | 2.73 |
| 2024-09-01 | 2.10 | 2.66 |
| 2024-10-01 | 2.34 | 2.82 |
| 2024-11-01 | 2.46 | 2.83 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2.60 | 2.86 |
| 2025-01-01 | 2.55 | 2.70 |
| 2025-02-01 | 2.69 | 2.96 |
| 2025-03-01 | 2.29 | 2.65 |
Note: PCE Inflation is the change in the personal consumption expenditures price index and core PCE Inflation is the change in PCE price index excluding food and energy. PCE and core PCE are 12-Month inflation percentages calculated using seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 7: Components of Core PCE Inflation
Percent change from year earlier
| Date | Core Goods | Core services less housing | Housing services |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 6.91 | 5.13 | 4.05 |
| 2022-02-01 | 7.66 | 5.13 | 4.31 |
| 2022-03-01 | 7.47 | 5.08 | 4.56 |
| 2022-04-01 | 6.35 | 5.03 | 4.85 |
| 2022-05-01 | 5.72 | 4.94 | 5.18 |
| 2022-06-01 | 5.72 | 5.05 | 5.61 |
| 2022-07-01 | 5.50 | 4.66 | 6.01 |
| 2022-08-01 | 5.61 | 4.90 | 6.47 |
| 2022-09-01 | 5.75 | 5.16 | 6.86 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.68 | 5.33 | 7.08 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.92 | 5.14 | 7.34 |
| 2022-12-01 | 3.16 | 4.93 | 7.74 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2.65 | 5.10 | 7.95 |
| 2023-02-01 | 2.26 | 5.07 | 8.18 |
| 2023-03-01 | 2.49 | 4.79 | 8.21 |
| 2023-04-01 | 2.50 | 4.78 | 8.27 |
| 2023-05-01 | 2.49 | 4.68 | 8.18 |
| 2023-06-01 | 1.71 | 4.52 | 7.92 |
| 2023-07-01 | 1.18 | 4.64 | 7.73 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.56 | 4.16 | 7.40 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.25 | 4.17 | 7.12 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.37 | 3.80 | 6.89 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.22 | 3.54 | 6.68 |
| 2023-12-01 | -0.04 | 3.43 | 6.33 |
| 2024-01-01 | -0.51 | 3.74 | 6.17 |
| 2024-02-01 | -0.41 | 3.53 | 5.90 |
| 2024-03-01 | -0.53 | 3.69 | 5.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | -0.54 | 3.58 | 5.66 |
| 2024-05-01 | -0.99 | 3.43 | 5.55 |
| 2024-06-01 | -0.74 | 3.31 | 5.34 |
| 2024-07-01 | -0.42 | 3.25 | 5.24 |
| 2024-08-01 | -0.51 | 3.39 | 5.27 |
| 2024-09-01 | -0.38 | 3.25 | 5.09 |
| 2024-10-01 | -0.36 | 3.54 | 5.05 |
| 2024-11-01 | -0.14 | 3.52 | 4.82 |
| 2024-12-01 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 4.70 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.30 | 3.19 | 4.50 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.42 | 3.65 | 4.33 |
| 2025-03-01 | 0.08 | 3.25 | 4.29 |
Note: Core goods Inflation is the change in the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding energy and food. Core services Inflation is the change in the PCE price index excluding energy services.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 8: Federal Funds Rate
Percent
| Date | Fed Funds Monthly Average Rate |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 0.08 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.08 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.20 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.33 |
| 2022-05-01 | 0.76 |
| 2022-06-01 | 1.19 |
| 2022-07-01 | 1.65 |
| 2022-08-01 | 2.33 |
| 2022-09-01 | 2.58 |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.08 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.76 |
| 2022-12-01 | 4.09 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.33 |
| 2023-02-01 | 4.57 |
| 2023-03-01 | 4.65 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.83 |
| 2023-05-01 | 5.05 |
| 2023-06-01 | 5.08 |
| 2023-07-01 | 5.12 |
| 2023-08-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-09-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-10-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-11-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-12-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-01-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-02-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-03-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-04-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-05-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-06-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-07-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-08-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-09-01 | 5.13 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.83 |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.65 |
| 2024-12-01 | 4.48 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-02-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-03-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-05-01 | 4.33 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Last Update:
May 14, 2025