Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas | March 26, 2026
Global Perspectives Speaker Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Dallas, Texas
March 26, 2026
Economic Outlook and Energy Effects
Philip N. Jefferson
Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board
Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
Figure 1: Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent, annual rate
| Date | GDP Growth |
|---|---|
| 2020 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | 5.8 |
| 2022 | 1.3 |
| 2023 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 2.0 |
Note: Percent change from preceding period. Annual GDP values represent Q4:Q4 comparisons. Seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 2: Unemployment Rate
Percent, Monthly
| Date | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 4.0 |
| 2022-02-01 | 3.9 |
| 2022-03-01 | 3.7 |
| 2022-04-01 | 3.7 |
| 2022-05-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-06-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-07-01 | 3.5 |
| 2022-08-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-09-01 | 3.5 |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-12-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-02-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-03-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-04-01 | 3.4 |
| 2023-05-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-06-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-07-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-08-01 | 3.7 |
| 2023-09-01 | 3.7 |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.9 |
| 2023-11-01 | 3.7 |
| 2023-12-01 | 3.8 |
| 2024-01-01 | 3.7 |
| 2024-02-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-05-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-06-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-08-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-09-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-12-01 | 4.1 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.0 |
| 2025-02-01 | 4.2 |
| 2025-03-01 | 4.2 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.2 |
| 2025-05-01 | 4.3 |
| 2025-06-01 | 4.1 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.3 |
| 2025-08-01 | 4.3 |
| 2025-09-01 | 4.4 |
| 2025-10-01 | |
| 2025-11-01 | 4.5 |
| 2025-12-01 | 4.4 |
| 2026-01-01 | 4.3 |
| 2026-02-01 | 4.4 |
Note: There are no data for October 2025.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 3: Monthly Nonfarm Payroll Gains
Thousands
| Date | Monthly | 3-Month moving average |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 190 | 478.0 |
| 2022-02-01 | 819 | 531.7 |
| 2022-03-01 | 490 | 499.7 |
| 2022-04-01 | 308 | 539.0 |
| 2022-05-01 | 301 | 366.3 |
| 2022-06-01 | 434 | 347.7 |
| 2022-07-01 | 714 | 483.0 |
| 2022-08-01 | 290 | 479.3 |
| 2022-09-01 | 220 | 408.0 |
| 2022-10-01 | 357 | 289.0 |
| 2022-11-01 | 303 | 293.3 |
| 2022-12-01 | 100 | 253.3 |
| 2023-01-01 | 434 | 279.0 |
| 2023-02-01 | 290 | 274.7 |
| 2023-03-01 | 68 | 264.0 |
| 2023-04-01 | 241 | 199.7 |
| 2023-05-01 | 280 | 196.3 |
| 2023-06-01 | 225 | 248.7 |
| 2023-07-01 | 163 | 222.7 |
| 2023-08-01 | 218 | 202.0 |
| 2023-09-01 | 156 | 179.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 159 | 177.7 |
| 2023-11-01 | 127 | 147.3 |
| 2023-12-01 | 154 | 146.7 |
| 2024-01-01 | 175 | 152.0 |
| 2024-02-01 | 206 | 178.3 |
| 2024-03-01 | 228 | 203.0 |
| 2024-04-01 | 64 | 166.0 |
| 2024-05-01 | 78 | 123.3 |
| 2024-06-01 | 87 | 76.3 |
| 2024-07-01 | 53 | 72.7 |
| 2024-08-01 | 9 | 49.7 |
| 2024-09-01 | 155 | 72.3 |
| 2024-10-01 | 33 | 65.7 |
| 2024-11-01 | 134 | 107.3 |
| 2024-12-01 | 237 | 134.7 |
| 2025-01-01 | -48 | 107.7 |
| 2025-02-01 | 42 | 77.0 |
| 2025-03-01 | 67 | 20.3 |
| 2025-04-01 | 108 | 72.3 |
| 2025-05-01 | 13 | 62.7 |
| 2025-06-01 | -20 | 33.7 |
| 2025-07-01 | 64 | 19.0 |
| 2025-08-01 | -70 | -8.7 |
| 2025-09-01 | 76 | 23.3 |
| 2025-10-01 | -140 | -44.7 |
| 2025-11-01 | 41 | -7.7 |
| 2025-12-01 | -17 | -38.7 |
| 2026-01-01 | 126 | 50.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | -92 | 5.7 |
Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 4: 12-Month PCE and Core PCE Inflation
12-month percent change, Monthly
| Date | PCE Inflation | Core PCE Inflation |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-31 | 6.27 | 5.36 |
| 2022-02-28 | 6.55 | 5.60 |
| 2022-03-31 | 6.93 | 5.59 |
| 2022-04-30 | 6.68 | 5.35 |
| 2022-05-31 | 6.79 | 5.18 |
| 2022-06-30 | 7.24 | 5.32 |
| 2022-07-31 | 6.75 | 5.11 |
| 2022-08-31 | 6.64 | 5.36 |
| 2022-09-30 | 6.67 | 5.61 |
| 2022-10-31 | 6.46 | 5.46 |
| 2022-11-30 | 6.03 | 5.21 |
| 2022-12-31 | 5.52 | 4.97 |
| 2023-01-31 | 5.51 | 4.94 |
| 2023-02-28 | 5.20 | 4.86 |
| 2023-03-31 | 4.43 | 4.78 |
| 2023-04-30 | 4.48 | 4.79 |
| 2023-05-31 | 4.00 | 4.73 |
| 2023-06-30 | 3.28 | 4.38 |
| 2023-07-31 | 3.41 | 4.30 |
| 2023-08-31 | 3.43 | 3.83 |
| 2023-09-30 | 3.45 | 3.69 |
| 2023-10-31 | 3.02 | 3.47 |
| 2023-11-30 | 2.77 | 3.29 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2.77 | 3.11 |
| 2024-01-31 | 2.70 | 3.16 |
| 2024-02-29 | 2.71 | 3.06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 2.93 | 3.12 |
| 2024-04-30 | 2.83 | 3.01 |
| 2024-05-31 | 2.66 | 2.77 |
| 2024-06-30 | 2.55 | 2.75 |
| 2024-07-31 | 2.59 | 2.81 |
| 2024-08-31 | 2.41 | 2.87 |
| 2024-09-30 | 2.26 | 2.84 |
| 2024-10-31 | 2.48 | 2.99 |
| 2024-11-30 | 2.59 | 2.98 |
| 2024-12-31 | 2.73 | 2.99 |
| 2025-01-31 | 2.61 | 2.78 |
| 2025-02-28 | 2.71 | 2.97 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.36 | 2.67 |
| 2025-04-30 | 2.28 | 2.61 |
| 2025-05-31 | 2.46 | 2.78 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2.59 | 2.81 |
| 2025-07-31 | 2.61 | 2.86 |
| 2025-08-31 | 2.75 | 2.91 |
| 2025-09-30 | 2.79 | 2.83 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2.71 | 2.76 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2.82 | 2.83 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2.91 | 3.01 |
| 2026-01-31 | 2.83 | 3.06 |
Note: PCE inflation is the change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, and core PCE inflation is the change in PCE price index excluding food and energy. PCE and core PCE are 12-month inflation percentages calculated using seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 5: Components of Core PCE Inflation
12-month percent change, Monthly
| Date | Core goods | Core services less housing | Housing services |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 6.90 | 5.05 | 4.04 |
| 2022-02-01 | 7.66 | 5.04 | 4.31 |
| 2022-03-01 | 7.48 | 5.01 | 4.56 |
| 2022-04-01 | 6.35 | 5.02 | 4.86 |
| 2022-05-01 | 5.72 | 4.93 | 5.19 |
| 2022-06-01 | 5.72 | 5.04 | 5.62 |
| 2022-07-01 | 5.50 | 4.65 | 6.02 |
| 2022-08-01 | 5.60 | 4.92 | 6.47 |
| 2022-09-01 | 5.73 | 5.17 | 6.86 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.69 | 5.33 | 7.09 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.93 | 5.15 | 7.36 |
| 2022-12-01 | 3.17 | 4.95 | 7.75 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2.67 | 5.07 | 7.96 |
| 2023-02-01 | 2.28 | 5.05 | 8.20 |
| 2023-03-01 | 2.51 | 4.79 | 8.23 |
| 2023-04-01 | 2.50 | 4.79 | 8.29 |
| 2023-05-01 | 2.50 | 4.71 | 8.20 |
| 2023-06-01 | 1.70 | 4.54 | 7.94 |
| 2023-07-01 | 1.18 | 4.68 | 7.75 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.56 | 4.24 | 7.42 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.23 | 4.22 | 7.14 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.38 | 3.84 | 6.91 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.22 | 3.64 | 6.72 |
| 2023-12-01 | -0.04 | 3.55 | 6.36 |
| 2024-01-01 | -0.52 | 3.90 | 6.18 |
| 2024-02-01 | -0.40 | 3.74 | 5.91 |
| 2024-03-01 | -0.50 | 3.92 | 5.85 |
| 2024-04-01 | -0.52 | 3.77 | 5.68 |
| 2024-05-01 | -1.02 | 3.61 | 5.57 |
| 2024-06-01 | -0.80 | 3.53 | 5.37 |
| 2024-07-01 | -0.41 | 3.48 | 5.27 |
| 2024-08-01 | -0.47 | 3.61 | 5.30 |
| 2024-09-01 | -0.33 | 3.53 | 5.12 |
| 2024-10-01 | -0.43 | 3.85 | 5.06 |
| 2024-11-01 | -0.19 | 3.81 | 4.80 |
| 2024-12-01 | -0.20 | 3.86 | 4.68 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.23 | 3.35 | 4.52 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.33 | 3.69 | 4.35 |
| 2025-03-01 | -0.04 | 3.35 | 4.29 |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.20 | 3.17 | 4.23 |
| 2025-05-01 | 0.65 | 3.31 | 4.07 |
| 2025-06-01 | 0.99 | 3.21 | 4.06 |
| 2025-07-01 | 1.05 | 3.31 | 3.94 |
| 2025-08-01 | 1.07 | 3.41 | 3.86 |
| 2025-09-01 | 1.21 | 3.26 | 3.67 |
| 2025-10-01 | 1.14 | 3.24 | 3.42 |
| 2025-11-01 | 1.25 | 3.36 | 3.31 |
| 2025-12-01 | 1.97 | 3.35 | 3.31 |
| 2026-01-01 | 1.86 | 3.51 | 3.21 |
Note: Core goods inflation is the change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding energy and good. Core services inflation is the change in the PCE price index excluding energy services.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 6: Federal Funds Rate
Percent, Monthly average
| Date | Fed Funds Rate |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 0.08 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.08 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.20 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.33 |
| 2022-05-01 | 0.76 |
| 2022-06-01 | 1.19 |
| 2022-07-01 | 1.65 |
| 2022-08-01 | 2.33 |
| 2022-09-01 | 2.58 |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.08 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.76 |
| 2022-12-01 | 4.09 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.33 |
| 2023-02-01 | 4.57 |
| 2023-03-01 | 4.65 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.83 |
| 2023-05-01 | 5.05 |
| 2023-06-01 | 5.08 |
| 2023-07-01 | 5.12 |
| 2023-08-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-09-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-10-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-11-01 | 5.33 |
| 2023-12-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-01-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-02-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-03-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-04-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-05-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-06-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-07-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-08-01 | 5.33 |
| 2024-09-01 | 5.13 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.83 |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.65 |
| 2024-12-01 | 4.48 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-02-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-03-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-05-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-06-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-08-01 | 4.33 |
| 2025-09-01 | 4.23 |
| 2025-10-01 | 4.08 |
| 2025-11-01 | 3.88 |
| 2025-12-01 | 3.73 |
| 2026-01-01 | 3.64 |
| 2026-02-01 | 3.64 |
| 2026-03-01 | 3.64 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr.