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Business Leverage Historically High

Figure 1. Gross Balance Sheet Leverage of Public Nonfinancial Corporations

Percent

Period All Firms Risky Firms
2000:Q1 30.64 37.96
2000:Q2 29.84 37.31
2000:Q3 29.29 36.27
2000:Q4 29.52 36.82
2001:Q1 29.52 38.23
2001:Q2 29.65 39.03
2001:Q3 29.64 38.18
2001:Q4 30.32 39.25
2002:Q1 30.93 39.50
2002:Q2 30.01 37.98
2002:Q3 29.81 37.86
2002:Q4 29.57 37.93
2003:Q1 29.24 37.78
2003:Q2 28.42 37.68
2003:Q3 28.04 36.72
2003:Q4 27.07 36.52
2004:Q1 26.54 35.35
2004:Q2 25.93 34.86
2004:Q3 25.62 35.02
2004:Q4 25.39 34.22
2005:Q1 25.15 34.17
2005:Q2 25.01 32.67
2005:Q3 24.27 31.49
2005:Q4 24.34 32.22
2006:Q1 24.81 33.09
2006:Q2 24.65 32.83
2006:Q3 24.63 33.07
2006:Q4 24.91 34.54
2007:Q1 25.18 35.13
2007:Q2 25.44 34.75
2007:Q3 25.85 35.53
2007:Q4 26.16 35.85
2008:Q1 26.40 36.51
2008:Q2 26.52 36.26
2008:Q3 27.56 38.47
2008:Q4 29.14 40.49
2009:Q1 29.36 40.71
2009:Q2 28.34 38.84
2009:Q3 27.37 36.95
2009:Q4 27.12 37.63
2010:Q1 26.71 36.55
2010:Q2 26.59 36.53
2010:Q3 26.56 36.66
2010:Q4 26.33 36.24
2011:Q1 26.12 36.13
2011:Q2 26.18 36.18
2011:Q3 26.50 36.09
2011:Q4 26.39 35.51
2012:Q1 26.34 35.97
2012:Q2 26.90 36.80
2012:Q3 27.03 37.00
2012:Q4 27.33 37.91
2013:Q1 27.24 37.61
2013:Q2 27.67 38.29
2013:Q3 27.93 38.25
2013:Q4 28.14 38.71
2014:Q1 28.77 39.28
2014:Q2 28.55 38.18
2014:Q3 28.71 38.08
2014:Q4 29.26 38.99
2015:Q1 30.12 39.62
2015:Q2 30.66 39.73
2015:Q3 31.19 41.01
2015:Q4 32.13 40.54
2016:Q1 32.74 42.17
2016:Q2 32.94 41.78
2016:Q3 33.02 41.61
2016:Q4 32.95 40.73
2017:Q1 33.20 40.77
2017:Q2 33.57 41.70
2017:Q3 33.40 41.88
2017:Q4 33.20 40.91
2018:Q1 33.33 40.82
2018:Q2 33.25 40.94
2018:Q3 32.94 40.23
2018:Q4 32.89 40.37

Note: Gross leverage is the ratio of the book value of total debt to the book value of total assets. Risky firms are firms with positive debt that are either rated as speculative grade by S&P or unrated.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

Debt Servicing Costs Low Relative to Business Income

Figure 2. Interest Expense Ratio for Public Nonfinancial Corporations

Percent

Period All Firms Risky Firms
2000:Q1 16.18 29.07
2000:Q2 15.59 27.02
2000:Q3 15.84 27.25
2000:Q4 15.97 28.17
2001:Q1 17.42 31.77
2001:Q2 17.03 31.44
2001:Q3 16.81 30.94
2001:Q4 15.99 28.70
2002:Q1 17.13 32.19
2002:Q2 15.60 29.59
2002:Q3 15.69 29.06
2002:Q4 15.17 27.75
2003:Q1 15.32 29.53
2003:Q2 15.24 29.43
2003:Q3 14.61 26.46
2003:Q4 13.96 24.96
2004:Q1 13.47 25.03
2004:Q2 12.48 22.58
2004:Q3 12.60 21.64
2004:Q4 11.96 20.21
2005:Q1 12.18 21.82
2005:Q2 11.73 20.76
2005:Q3 11.83 22.07
2005:Q4 10.96 19.32
2006:Q1 12.23 22.26
2006:Q2 11.79 21.18
2006:Q3 11.51 21.50
2006:Q4 12.23 22.43
2007:Q1 12.52 23.95
2007:Q2 11.75 20.77
2007:Q3 12.52 22.54
2007:Q4 12.42 23.35
2008:Q1 12.33 24.58
2008:Q2 11.08 21.44
2008:Q3 10.79 19.60
2008:Q4 14.45 27.95
2009:Q1 14.11 26.53
2009:Q2 13.83 25.18
2009:Q3 13.36 25.47
2009:Q4 12.20 22.80
2010:Q1 12.15 23.52
2010:Q2 11.83 22.44
2010:Q3 11.62 22.64
2010:Q4 11.28 21.38
2011:Q1 10.86 22.22
2011:Q2 10.47 21.49
2011:Q3 10.21 19.99
2011:Q4 10.76 20.13
2012:Q1 10.78 21.89
2012:Q2 10.57 20.75
2012:Q3 10.56 20.79
2012:Q4 11.06 21.78
2013:Q1 11.18 22.39
2013:Q2 10.81 19.90
2013:Q3 10.55 19.78
2013:Q4 10.47 20.88
2014:Q1 10.97 22.27
2014:Q2 10.44 19.49
2014:Q3 10.21 18.38
2014:Q4 10.97 19.18
2015:Q1 11.13 21.41
2015:Q2 10.73 19.57
2015:Q3 10.58 18.95
2015:Q4 11.21 18.52
2016:Q1 12.58 22.86
2016:Q2 12.31 21.31
2016:Q3 11.97 20.81
2016:Q4 11.39 19.93
2017:Q1 12.27 21.74
2017:Q2 11.99 19.67
2017:Q3 11.70 19.54
2017:Q4 11.48 18.78
2018:Q1 11.86 19.82
2018:Q2 11.13 18.16
2018:Q3 10.65 17.84
2018:Q4 10.90 17.67

Note: Series calculated as the ratio of total interest expenses to earnings before interest, depreciation, and taxes. Risky firms are firms with positive debt that are either rated as speculative grade by S&P or unrated.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

Issuance of Risky Debt Has Seen Sizable Shifts

Figure 3. Net Issuance of Risky Business Debt

Billions of dollars

Period Total High-yield and unrated bonds Institutional leveraged loans
2005:Q1 6.33 -6.99 13.32
2005:Q2 8.07 -5.58 13.65
2005:Q3 7.25 -6.64 13.89
2005:Q4 9.24 -4.59 13.82
2006:Q1 10.39 -7.60 17.99
2006:Q2 21.10 -2.70 23.80
2006:Q3 24.65 -1.79 26.44
2006:Q4 42.69 4.83 37.87
2007:Q1 48.17 6.93 41.25
2007:Q2 55.90 11.11 44.79
2007:Q3 55.97 9.21 46.75
2007:Q4 39.76 0.57 39.19
2008:Q1 25.64 -3.94 29.58
2008:Q2 12.79 -9.76 22.55
2008:Q3 11.57 -6.20 17.77
2008:Q4 -2.95 -12.90 9.96
2009:Q1 -5.71 -12.16 6.45
2009:Q2 -15.10 -11.11 -3.99
2009:Q3 -24.18 -15.22 -8.95
2009:Q4 -27.20 -10.81 -16.40
2010:Q1 -22.48 -4.58 -17.90
2010:Q2 -20.90 -4.45 -16.45
2010:Q3 -5.59 4.61 -10.20
2010:Q4 3.87 11.65 -7.78
2011:Q1 5.98 10.43 -4.44
2011:Q2 16.57 12.22 4.35
2011:Q3 4.84 4.80 0.04
2011:Q4 7.23 2.38 4.85
2012:Q1 13.03 8.67 4.35
2012:Q2 4.48 1.88 2.60
2012:Q3 13.65 10.77 2.88
2012:Q4 24.92 16.53 8.39
2013:Q1 29.55 16.71 12.83
2013:Q2 38.84 22.79 16.05
2013:Q3 52.27 23.84 28.43
2013:Q4 55.86 23.03 32.83
2014:Q1 58.28 20.92 37.36
2014:Q2 62.32 21.38 40.94
2014:Q3 62.21 20.46 41.75
2014:Q4 53.91 16.49 37.42
2015:Q1 55.20 23.53 31.67
2015:Q2 41.17 21.69 19.49
2015:Q3 24.24 14.71 9.53
2015:Q4 19.67 9.49 10.18
2016:Q1 9.03 -1.81 10.84
2016:Q2 11.20 -1.67 12.87
2016:Q3 4.15 -3.35 7.50
2016:Q4 -2.81 -4.91 2.10
2017:Q1 -4.89 -3.65 -1.23
2017:Q2 2.45 -7.32 9.77
2017:Q3 11.26 -4.99 16.25
2017:Q4 17.38 -1.27 18.65
2018:Q1 24.54 -3.75 28.30
2018:Q2 26.21 -3.55 29.76
2018:Q3 31.82 -5.96 37.78
2018:Q4 42.27 -5.70 47.97
2019:Q1 43.66 -4.14 47.80

Note: Total net issuance of risky debt is the sum of the net issuance of speculative-grade and unrated bonds as well as leveraged loans. The data are four-quarter moving averages.

Source: Mergent, Fixed Income Securities Database (FISD); S&P Global, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

CLOs Are the Largest Holders of Leveraged Loans

Figure 4. Leveraged Loans, by Type of Holder

Billions of dollars

  Leveraged loans
CLOs 709
Banks 89
Mutual funds 224
Insurance companies 65
Foreign investors, pension funds, and other 60

Note: The data, which are taken from 2018:Q4, are for institutional leveraged loans and generally exclude credit lines and the share of term loans primarily held by banks. "Other" includes the household sector; nonfinancial corporate and noncorporate business; federal, state, and local governments; federal, state, and local government retirement funds; money market funds; closed-end funds; exchange-traded funds; government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs); agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools; asset-backed securities issuers; hedge funds; finance companies; real estate investment trusts; broker-dealers; holding companies; and funding corporations. CLO is collateralized loan obligation.

Source: For leveraged loans, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Leveraged Commentary & Data; for all other items, Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Business Debt Growth Lags Pre-Crisis Run-Up for Households

Figure 5. Business- and Household-Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratios

Ratio

Period Business Household
1980:Q1 0.480 0.496
1980:Q2 0.483 0.502
1980:Q3 0.484 0.501
1980:Q4 0.476 0.494
1981:Q1 0.462 0.483
1981:Q2 0.466 0.495
1981:Q3 0.460 0.496
1981:Q4 0.465 0.506
1982:Q1 0.472 0.519
1982:Q2 0.470 0.524
1982:Q3 0.466 0.532
1982:Q4 0.470 0.531
1983:Q1 0.463 0.535
1983:Q2 0.462 0.530
1983:Q3 0.461 0.527
1983:Q4 0.464 0.526
1984:Q1 0.464 0.530
1984:Q2 0.466 0.538
1984:Q3 0.469 0.547
1984:Q4 0.477 0.559
1985:Q1 0.491 0.562
1985:Q2 0.499 0.569
1985:Q3 0.507 0.570
1985:Q4 0.524 0.579
1986:Q1 0.529 0.585
1986:Q2 0.536 0.596
1986:Q3 0.546 0.604
1986:Q4 0.557 0.615
1987:Q1 0.556 0.620
1987:Q2 0.563 0.620
1987:Q3 0.568 0.623
1987:Q4 0.560 0.621
1988:Q1 0.567 0.627
1988:Q2 0.568 0.628
1988:Q3 0.572 0.629
1988:Q4 0.571 0.631
1989:Q1 0.571 0.630
1989:Q2 0.574 0.632
1989:Q3 0.578 0.629
1989:Q4 0.586 0.634
1990:Q1 0.589 0.630
1990:Q2 0.591 0.626
1990:Q3 0.594 0.625
1990:Q4 0.604 0.629
1991:Q1 0.610 0.622
1991:Q2 0.610 0.613
1991:Q3 0.607 0.600
1991:Q4 0.612 0.589
1992:Q1 0.610 0.580
1992:Q2 0.606 0.569
1992:Q3 0.605 0.561
1992:Q4 0.603 0.551
1993:Q1 0.605 0.549
1993:Q2 0.607 0.548
1993:Q3 0.611 0.547
1993:Q4 0.610 0.543
1994:Q1 0.611 0.543
1994:Q2 0.611 0.540
1994:Q3 0.614 0.541
1994:Q4 0.617 0.539
1995:Q1 0.621 0.543
1995:Q2 0.627 0.549
1995:Q3 0.631 0.548
1995:Q4 0.633 0.549
1996:Q1 0.640 0.548
1996:Q2 0.639 0.546
1996:Q3 0.639 0.547
1996:Q4 0.639 0.544
1997:Q1 0.641 0.546
1997:Q2 0.639 0.546
1997:Q3 0.640 0.551
1997:Q4 0.641 0.555
1998:Q1 0.646 0.565
1998:Q2 0.653 0.577
1998:Q3 0.652 0.582
1998:Q4 0.654 0.585
1999:Q1 0.660 0.595
1999:Q2 0.668 0.600
1999:Q3 0.671 0.611
1999:Q4 0.671 0.610
2000:Q1 0.683 0.620
2000:Q2 0.679 0.622
2000:Q3 0.690 0.628
2000:Q4 0.694 0.631
2001:Q1 0.702 0.634
2001:Q2 0.710 0.636
2001:Q3 0.733 0.643
2001:Q4 0.738 0.646
2002:Q1 0.746 0.643
2002:Q2 0.753 0.640
2002:Q3 0.764 0.637
2002:Q4 0.779 0.636
2003:Q1 0.792 0.632
2003:Q2 0.814 0.626
2003:Q3 0.817 0.616
2003:Q4 0.825 0.605
2004:Q1 0.836 0.610
2004:Q2 0.847 0.605
2004:Q3 0.854 0.606
2004:Q4 0.867 0.604
2005:Q1 0.870 0.604
2005:Q2 0.885 0.608
2005:Q3 0.893 0.608
2005:Q4 0.903 0.613
2006:Q1 0.913 0.616
2006:Q2 0.928 0.625
2006:Q3 0.942 0.629
2006:Q4 0.949 0.640
2007:Q1 0.951 0.650
2007:Q2 0.961 0.663
2007:Q3 0.966 0.677
2007:Q4 0.970 0.689
2008:Q1 0.983 0.704
2008:Q2 0.968 0.711
2008:Q3 0.974 0.719
2008:Q4 0.969 0.734
2009:Q1 0.976 0.737
2009:Q2 0.977 0.733
2009:Q3 0.970 0.720
2009:Q4 0.954 0.695
2010:Q1 0.942 0.689
2010:Q2 0.926 0.674
2010:Q3 0.911 0.671
2010:Q4 0.901 0.657
2011:Q1 0.899 0.657
2011:Q2 0.884 0.652
2011:Q3 0.873 0.654
2011:Q4 0.860 0.651
2012:Q1 0.849 0.647
2012:Q2 0.840 0.647
2012:Q3 0.834 0.653
2012:Q4 0.831 0.659
2013:Q1 0.822 0.657
2013:Q2 0.819 0.661
2013:Q3 0.811 0.663
2013:Q4 0.804 0.659
2014:Q1 0.804 0.669
2014:Q2 0.796 0.665
2014:Q3 0.786 0.664
2014:Q4 0.784 0.671
2015:Q1 0.781 0.679
2015:Q2 0.776 0.684
2015:Q3 0.773 0.688
2015:Q4 0.772 0.696
2016:Q1 0.774 0.710
2016:Q2 0.771 0.709
2016:Q3 0.773 0.713
2016:Q4 0.770 0.710
2017:Q1 0.769 0.717
2017:Q2 0.769 0.721
2017:Q3 0.764 0.724
2017:Q4 0.764 0.726
2018:Q1 0.762 0.724
2018:Q2 0.754 0.733
2018:Q3 0.751 0.731
2018:Q4 0.749 0.731

Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Capital Levels Much Higher at Bank Holding Companies

Figure 6. Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio of Banks

This is a line chart titled "Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio of Banks." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2001 to 2018. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 14 percent. The data are quarterly. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first line, labeled "Other BHCs," is designated by a solid red line and ranges from 8 to just over 12 percent. This variable decreases slightly over 2001 to 2008 from 10 to 8 percent, increases rapidly from 8 percent in 2009 to 12 percent in 2012, and has remained near 12 percent through 2018. The second line, labeled "Large BHCs," is designated by a solid black line and ranges from about 5 to 12 percent. This variable increases slowly from about 6 percent in 2001 to nearly 8 percent in 2006, decreases sharply to 5 percent in 2008, and increases rapidly to just below 12 percent through the end of 2013, where it has remained through 2018.

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted by Board staff. Sample includes banks as of 2018:Q4. Before 2014:Q1, the numerator of the common equity Tier 1 ratio is Tier 1 common capital for advanced-approaches bank holding companies (BHCs) (before 2015:Q1, for non-advanced-approaches BHCs). Afterward, the numerator is common equity Tier 1 capital. Large BHCs are those with greater than $50 billion in total assets. The denominator is risk-weighted assets. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

Bank Liquidity Is Much Higher

Figure 7. Liquid Assets Held by Banks

This is a line chart titled "Liquid Assets Held by Banks." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2001 to 2018. The y-axis represents liquid assets as a percent of total assets, and ranges from 0 to 24 percent. The data are quarterly. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first line, labeled "Large BHCs," is designated by a solid black line and ranges from 4 to about 22 percent. This variable rises from about 4.5 percent in 2001:Q1, remains near that level until mid-2004, decreases to about 25 by 2008:Q2, increases to nearly 18 by 2014:Q1, and remains near that level through 2018:Q4. The second line, labeled "Other BHCs," is designated by a solid blue line and ranges from about 2 to 12 percent. This variable begins at about 7 percent in 2001:Q1, decreases to about 2 by 2006:Q3, remains near that level through 2008:Q4, increases to about 12 by 2010:Q3, and remains near that level through 2013:Q1. It then decreases to about 9 percent in 2016:Q2 and has remained near that through 2018:Q4.

Note: Liquid assets are excess reserves plus estimates of securities that qualify as high-quality liquid assets. Haircuts and Level 2 asset caps are incorporated into the estimate. Large bank holding companies (BHCs) are those with greater than $50 billion in total assets.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies; Federal Reserve Board, Form FR 2900, Report of Transaction Accounts, Other Deposits and Vault Cash.

Last Update: May 20, 2019