Accessible Version

Accessible Version

Figure 1. Spending on Durable Goods Has Surged, while Spending on Services Remains Weak

Trillions of chained 2012 dollars
Monthly

  Services Services trend Durables Durables trend
Jan-18 8.21 8.21 1.64 1.64
Feb-18 8.21 8.23 1.65 1.64
Mar-18 8.25 8.24 1.65 1.65
Apr-18 8.28 8.25 1.67 1.66
May-18 8.27 8.27 1.68 1.66
Jun-18 8.31 8.28 1.68 1.67
Jul-18 8.33 8.29 1.69 1.68
Aug-18 8.35 8.31 1.70 1.69
Sep-18 8.34 8.32 1.69 1.69
Oct-18 8.38 8.34 1.70 1.70
Nov-18 8.38 8.35 1.73 1.71
Dec-18 8.36 8.36 1.66 1.72
Jan-19 8.36 8.38 1.68 1.72
Feb-19 8.37 8.39 1.68 1.73
Mar-19 8.40 8.40 1.72 1.74
Apr-19 8.41 8.42 1.73 1.75
May-19 8.42 8.43 1.74 1.75
Jun-19 8.44 8.45 1.75 1.76
Jul-19 8.45 8.46 1.76 1.77
Aug-19 8.47 8.47 1.77 1.78
Sep-19 8.49 8.49 1.79 1.78
Oct-19 8.49 8.50 1.78 1.79
Nov-19 8.52 8.52 1.80 1.80
Dec-19 8.51 8.53 1.81 1.81
Jan-20 8.54 8.54 1.82 1.82
Feb-20 8.55 8.56 1.81 1.82
Mar-20 7.76 8.57 1.59 1.83
Apr-20 6.81 8.59 1.42 1.84
May-20 7.21 8.60 1.81 1.85
Jun-20 7.63 8.61 1.97 1.86
Jul-20 7.73 8.63 2.02 1.86
Aug-20 7.82 8.64 2.03 1.87
Sep-20 7.90 8.66 2.05 1.88
Oct-20 7.94 8.67 2.07 1.89
Nov-20 7.92 8.68 2.04 1.90
Dec-20 7.90 8.70 1.99 1.90
Jan-21 7.96 8.71 2.21 1.91
Feb-21 7.94 8.73 2.12 1.92
Mar-21 8.08 8.74 2.43 1.93
Apr-21 8.16 8.76 2.42 1.94
May-21 8.22 8.77 2.28 1.95
Jun-21 8.29 8.79 2.22 1.95

Note: The data are monthly estimates of real personal consumption expenditures and extend through June 2021. Trend spending is shown by the dashed lines and is constructed using the average growth rates from January 2018 to January 2020.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 2. The Labor Market Is Recovering, but the Recovery Is Far from Complete

A. Change in nonfarm payrolls and total hiring
Thousands
Monthly

  Hires Payrolls
Jan-18 5448.67 152.00
Feb-18 5505.33 212.67
Mar-18 5576.00 218.00
Apr-18 5626.33 242.00
May-18 5703.67 206.00
Jun-18 5750.67 212.33
Jul-18 5783.00 211.00
Aug-18 5782.33 197.33
Sep-18 5728.67 161.00
Oct-18 5785.00 182.00
Nov-18 5769.00 136.33
Dec-18 5800.00 181.33
Jan-19 5755.00 189.67
Feb-19 5706.00 142.33
Mar-19 5697.67 118.33
Apr-19 5801.00 112.33
May-19 5818.00 150.00
Jun-19 5848.67 152.33
Jul-19 5827.33 143.67
Aug-19 5890.00 187.67
Sep-19 5954.67 203.00
Oct-19 5892.00 203.67
Nov-19 5870.33 216.67
Dec-19 5841.00 196.67
Jan-20 5899.33 236.67
Feb-20 5945.00 255.00
Mar-20 5695.00 -359.67
Apr-20 5017.67 -7357.67
May-20 5782.00 -6509.67
Jun-20 6637.00 -4333.33
Jul-20 7402.00 3135.00
Aug-20 6788.33 2718.33
Sep-20 6200.00 1341.67
Oct-20 6132.67 993.00
Nov-20 5995.33 553.33
Dec-20 5821.67 212.67
Jan-21 5631.67 63.67
Feb-21 5556.67 154.33
Mar-21 5755.00 518.00
Apr-21 5937.33 530.00
May-21 6013.33 556.00
Jun-21 6251.00 607.00
Jul-21 ND 831.67

Note: Payroll data are three-month moving averages of total nonfarm payroll employment and extend through July 2021. Total private hire data are three-month moving averages and extend through June 2021.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

B. Measures of unemployment
Percent
Monthly

  Unemployment rate Adjusted unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate
Jan-18 4.03 ND 0.89
Feb-18 4.07 ND 0.88
Mar-18 4.02 ND 0.84
Apr-18 4.05 ND 0.85
May-18 3.84 ND 0.76
Jun-18 3.97 ND 0.88
Jul-18 3.78 ND 0.86
Aug-18 3.81 ND 0.81
Sep-18 3.73 ND 0.84
Oct-18 3.79 ND 0.83
Nov-18 3.76 ND 0.77
Dec-18 3.91 ND 0.80
Jan-19 3.95 ND 0.77
Feb-19 3.76 ND 0.79
Mar-19 3.80 ND 0.81
Apr-19 3.68 ND 0.80
May-19 3.66 ND 0.82
Jun-19 3.63 ND 0.85
Jul-19 3.65 ND 0.70
Aug-19 3.66 ND 0.75
Sep-19 3.49 ND 0.79
Oct-19 3.60 ND 0.75
Nov-19 3.59 ND 0.73
Dec-19 3.55 ND 0.72
Jan-20 3.52 ND 0.71
Feb-20 3.48 3.47 0.68
Mar-20 4.42 6.33 0.73
Apr-20 14.77 23.51 0.64
May-20 13.26 19.61 0.76
Jun-20 11.07 14.86 0.85
Jul-20 10.19 13.48 0.93
Aug-20 8.42 11.30 0.99
Sep-20 7.83 10.98 1.50
Oct-20 6.87 9.54 2.20
Nov-20 6.68 9.58 2.45
Dec-20 6.69 9.79 2.46
Jan-21 6.32 9.57 2.51
Feb-21 6.22 9.34 2.59
Mar-21 6.05 8.88 2.63
Apr-21 6.09 8.60 2.60
May-21 5.79 8.34 2.33
Jun-21 5.89 8.28 2.47
Jul-21 5.39 7.76 2.12

Note: The data extend through July 2021. The long-term unemployment rate is the share of the labor force that has been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The adjusted unemployment rate begins in February 2020 and is defined in footnote 5.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 3. Measures of Broad-Based Inflation Generally Remain Moderate

Percent
Monthly

  12-month Dallas Trimmed Mean (PCE) 18-month core PCE inflation ex. durable goods 18-month total PCE inflation ex. durable goods
Jan-09 2.22 2.01 1.54
Feb-09 2.22 1.90 1.58
Mar-09 2.14 1.76 1.21
Apr-09 2.08 1.72 1.09
May-09 1.99 1.63 0.76
Jun-09 1.86 1.54 1.00
Jul-09 1.62 1.51 0.87
Aug-09 1.60 1.57 0.95
Sep-09 1.48 1.53 0.84
Oct-09 1.50 1.69 0.92
Nov-09 1.38 1.59 0.76
Dec-09 1.36 1.49 0.27
Jan-10 1.20 1.48 0.10
Feb-10 1.08 1.46 0.17
Mar-10 1.00 1.48 0.20
Apr-10 0.93 1.66 0.76
May-10 0.88 1.77 1.67
Jun-10 0.81 1.84 2.06
Jul-10 0.85 1.89 2.14
Aug-10 0.85 1.90 2.10
Sep-10 0.88 1.87 2.25
Oct-10 0.80 1.83 2.39
Nov-10 0.85 1.86 2.46
Dec-10 0.89 1.80 2.20
Jan-11 1.00 1.83 2.36
Feb-11 1.16 1.80 2.31
Mar-11 1.29 1.83 2.53
Apr-11 1.42 1.73 2.57
May-11 1.56 1.84 2.61
Jun-11 1.62 1.83 2.52
Jul-11 1.70 1.82 2.48
Aug-11 1.79 1.89 2.64
Sep-11 1.84 1.85 2.66
Oct-11 1.93 1.81 2.59
Nov-11 1.99 1.87 2.71
Dec-11 2.06 1.94 2.77
Jan-12 2.09 2.12 2.92
Feb-12 2.02 2.17 3.00
Mar-12 2.02 2.27 3.08
Apr-12 1.99 2.28 2.95
May-12 1.92 2.26 2.71
Jun-12 1.90 2.33 2.50
Jul-12 1.84 2.28 2.33
Aug-12 1.79 2.22 2.40
Sep-12 1.79 2.20 2.33
Oct-12 1.78 2.24 2.26
Nov-12 1.70 2.15 1.98
Dec-12 1.62 2.14 2.00
Jan-13 1.58 2.19 2.03
Feb-13 1.62 2.13 2.13
Mar-13 1.57 2.15 1.92
Apr-13 1.43 2.20 1.88
May-13 1.41 2.12 1.78
Jun-13 1.51 2.12 1.90
Jul-13 1.56 2.02 1.76
Aug-13 1.55 2.02 1.72
Sep-13 1.54 1.96 1.60
Oct-13 1.55 2.00 1.62
Nov-13 1.62 2.07 1.83
Dec-13 1.68 2.11 2.03
Jan-14 1.64 2.11 2.16
Feb-14 1.59 2.11 1.95
Mar-14 1.62 2.16 1.87
Apr-14 1.77 2.12 1.80
May-14 1.82 2.21 2.01
Jun-14 1.78 2.25 2.11
Jul-14 1.80 2.23 2.07
Aug-14 1.74 2.17 1.79
Sep-14 1.75 2.19 1.90
Oct-14 1.73 2.17 1.92
Nov-14 1.70 2.20 1.84
Dec-14 1.67 2.18 1.59
Jan-15 1.57 2.07 1.15
Feb-15 1.62 2.01 1.12
Mar-15 1.62 2.05 1.24
Apr-15 1.62 1.99 1.15
May-15 1.60 1.95 1.21
Jun-15 1.62 1.92 1.19
Jul-15 1.59 1.92 1.11
Aug-15 1.62 1.94 1.08
Sep-15 1.61 1.86 0.79
Oct-15 1.56 1.74 0.64
Nov-15 1.52 1.68 0.56
Dec-15 1.51 1.65 0.42
Jan-16 1.63 1.65 0.34
Feb-16 1.63 1.74 0.31
Mar-16 1.64 1.76 0.46
Apr-16 1.68 1.85 0.71
May-16 1.70 1.88 0.87
Jun-16 1.68 1.91 1.14
Jul-16 1.71 2.07 1.52
Aug-16 1.75 2.17 1.55
Sep-16 1.79 2.14 1.53
Oct-16 1.88 2.15 1.66
Nov-16 1.92 2.15 1.56
Dec-16 1.97 2.15 1.55
Jan-17 2.03 2.20 1.70
Feb-17 1.98 2.23 1.74
Mar-17 1.93 2.15 1.87
Apr-17 1.90 2.33 2.07
May-17 1.82 2.31 1.99
Jun-17 1.82 2.39 2.13
Jul-17 1.75 2.33 2.14
Aug-17 1.73 2.29 2.36
Sep-17 1.75 2.31 2.48
Oct-17 1.73 2.33 2.37
Nov-17 1.73 2.27 2.40
Dec-17 1.76 2.25 2.31
Jan-18 1.74 2.28 2.48
Feb-18 1.77 2.29 2.54
Mar-18 1.82 2.38 2.51
Apr-18 1.78 2.38 2.50
May-18 1.89 2.45 2.57
Jun-18 1.93 2.46 2.54
Jul-18 1.98 2.40 2.36
Aug-18 1.98 2.31 2.35
Sep-18 1.98 2.48 2.52
Oct-18 1.99 2.39 2.48
Nov-18 2.07 2.44 2.54
Dec-18 2.05 2.41 2.42
Jan-19 1.89 2.34 2.31
Feb-19 1.92 2.29 2.22
Mar-19 1.96 2.27 2.12
Apr-19 2.10 2.32 2.30
May-19 2.01 2.32 2.17
Jun-19 1.98 2.33 2.11
Jul-19 2.02 2.31 2.03
Aug-19 2.06 2.24 1.91
Sep-19 2.00 2.11 1.85
Oct-19 2.02 2.11 1.87
Nov-19 1.94 2.00 1.81
Dec-19 1.94 2.10 1.89
Jan-20 2.09 2.16 1.97
Feb-20 2.11 2.22 1.93
Mar-20 2.04 2.04 1.61
Apr-20 1.87 1.67 1.14
May-20 1.93 1.64 1.16
Jun-20 1.94 1.72 1.47
Jul-20 1.96 1.88 1.69
Aug-20 1.98 1.98 1.75
Sep-20 1.99 1.97 1.65
Oct-20 1.87 1.74 1.39
Nov-20 1.80 1.67 1.37
Dec-20 1.81 1.76 1.62
Jan-21 1.69 1.75 1.69
Feb-21 1.70 1.70 1.81
Mar-21 1.74 1.91 2.13
Apr-21 1.85 2.07 2.20
May-21 1.92 2.21 2.31
Jun-21 1.95 2.22 2.40

Note: Dallas Trimmed Mean data are 12-month percent changes and extend through June 2021. Inflation excluding durables are 18-month annualized changes and extend through June 2021.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 4. Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Have Largely Reversed Earlier Declines

A. Selected indicators of inflation expectations
Percent
Monthly

  Michigan survey, price changes next 5-10 years TIPS, inflation compensation, 6-10 years ahead
Jan-09 2.90 2.40
Feb-09 3.10 2.62
Mar-09 2.60 2.41
Apr-09 2.80 2.46
May-09 2.90 2.78
Jun-09 3.00 3.01
Jul-09 3.00 3.06
Aug-09 2.80 3.18
Sep-09 2.80 2.99
Oct-09 2.90 2.99
Nov-09 3.00 3.16
Dec-09 2.70 3.16
Jan-10 2.90 3.18
Feb-10 2.70 3.08
Mar-10 2.70 2.94
Apr-10 2.70 3.06
May-10 2.90 2.93
Jun-10 2.80 2.76
Jul-10 2.90 2.60
Aug-10 2.80 2.43
Sep-10 2.70 2.63
Oct-10 2.80 2.84
Nov-10 2.80 2.99
Dec-10 2.80 3.11
Jan-11 2.90 3.03
Feb-11 2.90 2.91
Mar-11 3.20 2.95
Apr-11 2.90 3.07
May-11 2.90 2.87
Jun-11 3.00 2.88
Jul-11 2.90 3.09
Aug-11 2.90 2.89
Sep-11 2.80 2.41
Oct-11 2.70 2.46
Nov-11 2.70 2.42
Dec-11 2.70 2.45
Jan-12 2.70 2.53
Feb-12 2.90 2.59
Mar-12 3.00 2.68
Apr-12 2.90 2.69
May-12 2.70 2.56
Jun-12 2.80 2.51
Jul-12 2.70 2.44
Aug-12 3.00 2.54
Sep-12 2.80 2.60
Oct-12 2.70 2.81
Nov-12 2.80 2.72
Dec-12 2.90 2.78
Jan-13 2.90 2.84
Feb-13 3.00 2.83
Mar-13 2.80 2.81
Apr-13 2.90 2.73
May-13 2.90 2.71
Jun-13 2.90 2.45
Jul-13 2.80 2.59
Aug-13 2.90 2.73
Sep-13 3.00 2.63
Oct-13 2.80 2.59
Nov-13 2.90 2.60
Dec-13 2.70 2.66
Jan-14 2.90 2.67
Feb-14 2.90 2.52
Mar-14 2.90 2.43
Apr-14 2.90 2.42
May-14 2.80 2.43
Jun-14 2.90 2.42
Jul-14 2.70 2.44
Aug-14 2.90 2.39
Sep-14 2.80 2.28
Oct-14 2.80 2.15
Nov-14 2.60 2.08
Dec-14 2.80 1.97
Jan-15 2.80 1.80
Feb-15 2.70 1.82
Mar-15 2.80 1.87
Apr-15 2.60 1.90
May-15 2.80 2.04
Jun-15 2.60 2.07
Jul-15 2.80 2.06
Aug-15 2.70 1.89
Sep-15 2.70 1.78
Oct-15 2.50 1.74
Nov-15 2.60 1.84
Dec-15 2.60 1.72
Jan-16 2.70 1.56
Feb-16 2.50 1.43
Mar-16 2.70 1.56
Apr-16 2.50 1.60
May-16 2.50 1.56
Jun-16 2.60 1.40
Jul-16 2.60 1.36
Aug-16 2.50 1.42
Sep-16 2.60 1.48
Oct-16 2.40 1.58
Nov-16 2.60 1.81
Dec-16 2.30 1.91
Jan-17 2.60 1.92
Feb-17 2.50 1.95
Mar-17 2.40 1.92
Apr-17 2.40 1.90
May-17 2.40 1.89
Jun-17 2.50 1.76
Jul-17 2.60 1.80
Aug-17 2.50 1.79
Sep-17 2.50 1.80
Oct-17 2.50 1.81
Nov-17 2.40 1.80
Dec-17 2.40 1.88
Jan-18 2.50 1.99
Feb-18 2.50 2.13
Mar-18 2.50 2.04
Apr-18 2.50 2.06
May-18 2.50 2.13
Jun-18 2.60 2.14
Jul-18 2.40 2.12
Aug-18 2.60 2.08
Sep-18 2.50 2.09
Oct-18 2.40 2.10
Nov-18 2.60 2.02
Dec-18 2.50 1.85
Jan-19 2.60 1.79
Feb-19 2.30 1.87
Mar-19 2.50 1.90
Apr-19 2.30 1.95
May-19 2.60 1.92
Jun-19 2.30 1.78
Jul-19 2.50 1.81
Aug-19 2.60 1.63
Sep-19 2.40 1.63
Oct-19 2.30 1.62
Nov-19 2.50 1.69
Dec-19 2.20 1.76
Jan-20 2.50 1.74
Feb-20 2.30 1.63
Mar-20 2.30 1.26
Apr-20 2.50 1.43
May-20 2.70 1.38
Jun-20 2.50 1.42
Jul-20 2.60 1.44
Aug-20 2.70 1.60
Sep-20 2.70 1.65
Oct-20 2.40 1.75
Nov-20 2.50 1.78
Dec-20 2.50 1.92
Jan-21 2.70 2.02
Feb-21 2.70 2.17
Mar-21 2.80 2.31
Apr-21 2.70 2.33
May-21 3.00 2.43
Jun-21 2.80 2.31
Jul-21 2.80 2.15
Aug-21 3.00 ND

Percent
Quarterly

  Survey of Professional Forecasters, 10-year PCE inflation
2009:Q1 2.20
2009:Q2 2.28
2009:Q3 2.15
2009:Q4 2.10
2010:Q1 2.10
2010:Q2 2.15
2010:Q3 2.11
2010:Q4 2.00
2011:Q1 2.10
2011:Q2 2.27
2011:Q3 2.25
2011:Q4 2.16
2012:Q1 2.15
2012:Q2 2.20
2012:Q3 2.20
2012:Q4 2.10
2013:Q1 2.00
2013:Q2 2.00
2013:Q3 2.00
2013:Q4 2.00
2014:Q1 2.00
2014:Q2 2.00
2014:Q3 2.00
2014:Q4 2.00
2015:Q1 2.00
2015:Q2 1.98
2015:Q3 2.00
2015:Q4 1.90
2016:Q1 1.97
2016:Q2 2.00
2016:Q3 2.00
2016:Q4 2.00
2017:Q1 2.10
2017:Q2 2.09
2017:Q3 2.00
2017:Q4 2.00
2018:Q1 2.00
2018:Q2 2.00
2018:Q3 2.00
2018:Q4 2.01
2019:Q1 2.00
2019:Q2 2.00
2019:Q3 2.00
2019:Q4 2.00
2020:Q1 2.00
2020:Q2 1.87
2020:Q3 1.85
2020:Q4 1.90
2021:Q1 2.03
2021:Q2 2.10

Note: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) data are monthly and extend through July 2021. The Michigan survey data are monthly and extend through August 2021; the August data are preliminary. Survey of Professional Forecasters data are quarterly and extend through 2021:Q2. PCE is personal consumption expenditures.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters; University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

B. Index of Common Inflation Expectations
Percent
Quarterly

  CIE projected on SPF, 10-year PCE inflation
2009:Q1 2.07
2009:Q2 2.09
2009:Q3 2.12
2009:Q4 2.14
2010:Q1 2.12
2010:Q2 2.10
2010:Q3 2.10
2010:Q4 2.11
2011:Q1 2.13
2011:Q2 2.13
2011:Q3 2.12
2011:Q4 2.10
2012:Q1 2.09
2012:Q2 2.09
2012:Q3 2.10
2012:Q4 2.11
2013:Q1 2.10
2013:Q2 2.09
2013:Q3 2.08
2013:Q4 2.08
2014:Q1 2.08
2014:Q2 2.07
2014:Q3 2.04
2014:Q4 2.02
2015:Q1 2.00
2015:Q2 2.00
2015:Q3 1.99
2015:Q4 1.98
2016:Q1 1.95
2016:Q2 1.94
2016:Q3 1.95
2016:Q4 1.97
2017:Q1 1.99
2017:Q2 1.99
2017:Q3 1.98
2017:Q4 1.98
2018:Q1 1.99
2018:Q2 2.00
2018:Q3 2.00
2018:Q4 1.99
2019:Q1 1.97
2019:Q2 1.97
2019:Q3 1.96
2019:Q4 1.95
2020:Q1 1.94
2020:Q2 1.93
2020:Q3 1.94
2020:Q4 1.98
2021:Q1 2.02
2021:Q2 2.05

Note: The data extend through 2021:Q2. CIE is Index of Common Inflation Expectations, and SPF is Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 5. Durable Goods Inflation Has Run Far below That of Services for 25 Years before the Pandemic

12-month percent change
Monthly

  Services Durables
Jan-95 2.76 2.05
Feb-95 2.70 1.86
Mar-95 2.60 1.75
Apr-95 2.75 1.76
May-95 2.84 1.09
Jun-95 2.83 0.66
Jul-95 2.77 0.20
Aug-95 2.88 0.22
Sep-95 2.85 0.00
Oct-95 2.89 -0.07
Nov-95 2.79 -0.50
Dec-95 2.86 -0.19
Jan-96 2.71 -0.48
Feb-96 2.62 -0.57
Mar-96 2.56 -0.68
Apr-96 2.59 -1.08
May-96 2.66 -1.19
Jun-96 2.63 -1.10
Jul-96 2.77 -1.03
Aug-96 2.70 -1.15
Sep-96 2.89 -1.01
Oct-96 2.87 -1.01
Nov-96 2.96 -1.06
Dec-96 2.94 -1.75
Jan-97 2.99 -1.85
Feb-97 3.08 -1.62
Mar-97 3.12 -1.70
Apr-97 3.07 -2.09
May-97 2.82 -1.95
Jun-97 3.01 -2.05
Jul-97 2.85 -2.26
Aug-97 2.71 -2.49
Sep-97 2.70 -2.55
Oct-97 2.57 -2.55
Nov-97 2.51 -2.69
Dec-97 2.41 -2.42
Jan-98 2.43 -2.57
Feb-98 2.27 -3.00
Mar-98 2.26 -3.11
Apr-98 2.18 -2.32
May-98 2.30 -2.77
Jun-98 1.88 -2.95
Jul-98 2.03 -2.67
Aug-98 2.18 -2.74
Sep-98 1.91 -2.91
Oct-98 2.00 -3.03
Nov-98 1.94 -2.83
Dec-98 2.02 -3.00
Jan-99 1.94 -2.93
Feb-99 1.92 -2.99
Mar-99 1.85 -3.26
Apr-99 1.84 -3.19
May-99 1.83 -2.70
Jun-99 1.97 -2.56
Jul-99 1.92 -2.68
Aug-99 1.85 -2.51
Sep-99 2.12 -2.37
Oct-99 2.10 -2.40
Nov-99 2.24 -2.38
Dec-99 2.30 -2.33
Jan-00 2.56 -2.25
Feb-00 2.75 -2.15
Mar-00 2.74 -1.60
Apr-00 2.62 -1.87
May-00 2.61 -1.61
Jun-00 2.81 -1.68
Jul-00 2.90 -1.80
Aug-00 3.00 -2.05
Sep-00 2.99 -1.76
Oct-00 3.06 -1.77
Nov-00 2.98 -1.52
Dec-00 3.05 -1.27
Jan-01 3.40 -1.30
Feb-01 3.35 -1.36
Mar-01 3.37 -1.86
Apr-01 3.52 -1.85
May-01 3.55 -2.24
Jun-01 3.54 -1.90
Jul-01 3.41 -1.66
Aug-01 3.36 -1.72
Sep-01 2.30 -2.75
Oct-01 2.83 -2.14
Nov-01 2.93 -2.34
Dec-01 2.80 -2.39
Jan-02 2.20 -2.59
Feb-02 2.23 -2.86
Mar-02 2.28 -2.68
Apr-02 2.36 -2.62
May-02 2.38 -2.29
Jun-02 2.35 -2.61
Jul-02 2.45 -2.81
Aug-02 2.49 -2.52
Sep-02 3.54 -1.72
Oct-02 2.89 -2.31
Nov-02 2.85 -2.50
Dec-02 2.98 -2.75
Jan-03 3.11 -3.09
Feb-03 3.18 -2.80
Mar-03 3.42 -2.88
Apr-03 3.33 -3.08
May-03 3.46 -3.64
Jun-03 3.36 -3.75
Jul-03 3.33 -3.76
Aug-03 3.34 -4.02
Sep-03 3.33 -4.19
Oct-03 3.40 -4.37
Nov-03 3.41 -4.26
Dec-03 3.37 -4.06
Jan-04 3.47 -3.37
Feb-04 3.32 -3.02
Mar-04 2.99 -2.81
Apr-04 3.14 -2.51
May-04 2.98 -2.03
Jun-04 3.11 -1.70
Jul-04 3.10 -1.88
Aug-04 3.04 -1.96
Sep-04 2.97 -1.67
Oct-04 2.84 -1.08
Nov-04 2.95 -0.78
Dec-04 2.97 -0.53
Jan-05 3.07 -0.78
Feb-05 3.14 -0.97
Mar-05 3.32 -1.03
Apr-05 3.24 -1.12
May-05 3.26 -0.76
Jun-05 3.16 -1.07
Jul-05 3.19 -1.08
Aug-05 3.19 -0.90
Sep-05 3.42 -0.85
Oct-05 3.79 -1.18
Nov-05 3.83 -1.30
Dec-05 3.68 -1.44
Jan-06 3.65 -1.38
Feb-06 3.63 -1.47
Mar-06 3.56 -1.68
Apr-06 3.65 -1.61
May-06 3.75 -1.94
Jun-06 3.94 -1.93
Jul-06 3.83 -1.59
Aug-06 3.88 -1.25
Sep-06 3.72 -1.82
Oct-06 3.36 -1.79
Nov-06 3.18 -1.95
Dec-06 3.33 -2.12
Jan-07 3.45 -2.21
Feb-07 3.50 -1.99
Mar-07 3.47 -1.96
Apr-07 3.37 -2.20
May-07 3.23 -2.18
Jun-07 3.16 -1.82
Jul-07 3.17 -2.14
Aug-07 3.19 -2.57
Sep-07 3.28 -2.21
Oct-07 3.41 -2.15
Nov-07 3.46 -2.05
Dec-07 3.49 -2.07
Jan-08 3.17 -1.83
Feb-08 3.08 -1.98
Mar-08 3.13 -1.75
Apr-08 3.09 -1.91
May-08 3.28 -2.05
Jun-08 3.36 -2.12
Jul-08 3.46 -1.77
Aug-08 3.30 -1.54
Sep-08 2.99 -1.69
Oct-08 2.47 -1.78
Nov-08 2.14 -2.00
Dec-08 1.88 -2.08
Jan-09 1.59 -2.22
Feb-09 1.33 -2.07
Mar-09 0.95 -2.33
Apr-09 0.81 -1.89
May-09 0.49 -1.79
Jun-09 0.26 -1.79
Jul-09 0.10 -2.32
Aug-09 0.21 -2.50
Sep-09 0.27 -1.97
Oct-09 0.91 -1.55
Nov-09 1.15 -1.13
Dec-09 1.26 -0.98
Jan-10 1.55 -1.04
Feb-10 1.72 -1.39
Mar-10 2.04 -1.25
Apr-10 2.14 -1.67
May-10 2.28 -1.80
Jun-10 2.23 -2.08
Jul-10 2.17 -2.02
Aug-10 2.06 -1.54
Sep-10 2.00 -1.91
Oct-10 1.77 -2.38
Nov-10 1.73 -2.47
Dec-10 1.70 -2.53
Jan-11 1.68 -2.22
Feb-11 1.75 -1.75
Mar-11 1.75 -1.80
Apr-11 1.81 -1.19
May-11 1.89 -0.82
Jun-11 1.89 -0.36
Jul-11 1.98 0.03
Aug-11 2.10 -0.16
Sep-11 2.18 -0.50
Oct-11 1.97 -0.32
Nov-11 2.04 -0.39
Dec-11 2.17 -0.19
Jan-12 2.28 -0.27
Feb-12 2.26 -0.52
Mar-12 2.20 -0.55
Apr-12 2.18 -1.04
May-12 2.05 -1.19
Jun-12 2.14 -1.61
Jul-12 2.08 -1.71
Aug-12 2.01 -1.79
Sep-12 2.03 -1.57
Oct-12 2.31 -1.69
Nov-12 2.28 -1.61
Dec-12 2.23 -1.61
Jan-13 2.17 -1.84
Feb-13 2.21 -1.82
Mar-13 2.23 -1.98
Apr-13 2.18 -2.06
May-13 2.27 -2.13
Jun-13 2.30 -1.86
Jul-13 2.35 -1.94
Aug-13 2.35 -2.07
Sep-13 2.39 -1.95
Oct-13 2.39 -2.04
Nov-13 2.46 -2.20
Dec-13 2.55 -2.50
Jan-14 2.49 -2.63
Feb-14 2.41 -2.80
Mar-14 2.59 -2.61
Apr-14 2.59 -2.35
May-14 2.65 -2.59
Jun-14 2.57 -2.69
Jul-14 2.65 -2.54
Aug-14 2.59 -2.40
Sep-14 2.55 -2.56
Oct-14 2.34 -2.44
Nov-14 2.31 -2.71
Dec-14 2.27 -2.78
Jan-15 2.12 -2.80
Feb-15 2.07 -2.34
Mar-15 1.87 -2.34
Apr-15 1.88 -2.18
May-15 1.76 -1.90
Jun-15 1.86 -1.97
Jul-15 1.75 -2.16
Aug-15 1.80 -2.37
Sep-15 1.78 -2.01
Oct-15 1.74 -2.13
Nov-15 1.68 -2.01
Dec-15 1.60 -1.83
Jan-16 1.81 -1.55
Feb-16 1.88 -1.92
Mar-16 1.94 -2.05
Apr-16 2.03 -1.88
May-16 2.17 -2.15
Jun-16 2.17 -2.53
Jul-16 2.32 -2.59
Aug-16 2.39 -2.45
Sep-16 2.40 -2.70
Oct-16 2.56 -2.68
Nov-16 2.61 -3.07
Dec-16 2.70 -2.96
Jan-17 2.68 -2.37
Feb-17 2.73 -2.33
Mar-17 2.48 -2.51
Apr-17 2.60 -2.77
May-17 2.55 -2.60
Jun-17 2.54 -2.29
Jul-17 2.35 -2.33
Aug-17 2.34 -2.34
Sep-17 2.47 -2.24
Oct-17 2.56 -2.06
Nov-17 2.55 -1.83
Dec-17 2.58 -1.85
Jan-18 2.58 -2.21
Feb-18 2.67 -2.44
Mar-18 2.98 -1.94
Apr-18 2.78 -1.77
May-18 2.82 -1.80
Jun-18 2.82 -1.86
Jul-18 2.91 -1.37
Aug-18 2.87 -1.44
Sep-18 2.84 -1.58
Oct-18 2.72 -1.60
Nov-18 2.78 -1.17
Dec-18 2.84 -1.07
Jan-19 2.53 -1.08
Feb-19 2.36 -0.99
Mar-19 2.29 -1.25
Apr-19 2.50 -1.47
May-19 2.37 -1.21
Jun-19 2.38 -0.48
Jul-19 2.44 -1.26
Aug-19 2.44 -1.17
Sep-19 2.35 -1.01
Oct-19 2.38 -1.15
Nov-19 2.23 -1.46
Dec-19 2.27 -1.96
Jan-20 2.55 -2.05
Feb-20 2.60 -1.54
Mar-20 2.44 -1.68
Apr-20 1.75 -2.78
May-20 1.89 -2.29
Jun-20 1.92 -1.89
Jul-20 1.90 -0.67
Aug-20 1.97 0.42
Sep-20 2.14 0.40
Oct-20 2.02 0.44
Nov-20 1.93 0.59
Dec-20 2.01 1.36
Jan-21 1.93 1.38
Feb-21 1.96 1.44
Mar-21 2.40 2.43
Apr-21 3.13 5.54
May-21 3.20 6.91
Jun-21 3.35 7.17

Note: The data are price deflators for personal consumption expenditures and extend through June 2021.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 6. Overall Wage Growth Remains Moderate

Percent
Quarterly

  ECI
1995:Q1 2.99
1995:Q2 2.81
1995:Q3 2.64
1995:Q4 2.48
1996:Q1 2.75
1996:Q2 2.88
1996:Q3 2.86
1996:Q4 3.13
1997:Q1 2.82
1997:Q2 2.80
1997:Q3 2.92
1997:Q4 3.31
1998:Q1 3.43
1998:Q2 3.54
1998:Q3 3.78
1998:Q4 3.47
1999:Q1 3.05
1999:Q2 3.15
1999:Q3 3.12
1999:Q4 3.48
2000:Q1 4.63
2000:Q2 4.71
2000:Q3 4.67
2000:Q4 4.49
2001:Q1 4.55
2001:Q2 4.38
2001:Q3 4.46
2001:Q4 4.42
2002:Q1 3.76
2002:Q2 3.85
2002:Q3 3.34
2002:Q4 3.09
2003:Q1 3.63
2003:Q2 3.48
2003:Q3 4.02
2003:Q4 3.99
2004:Q1 3.83
2004:Q2 3.90
2004:Q3 3.76
2004:Q4 3.73
2005:Q1 3.48
2005:Q2 3.13
2005:Q3 2.90
2005:Q4 2.98
2006:Q1 2.65
2006:Q2 2.83
2006:Q3 3.02
2006:Q4 3.09
2007:Q1 3.08
2007:Q2 3.15
2007:Q3 3.02
2007:Q4 3.10
2008:Q1 3.18
2008:Q2 3.05
2008:Q3 2.84
2008:Q4 2.44
2009:Q1 1.96
2009:Q2 1.39
2009:Q3 1.20
2009:Q4 1.19
2010:Q1 1.65
2010:Q2 1.92
2010:Q3 2.00
2010:Q4 1.99
2011:Q1 1.98
2011:Q2 2.33
2011:Q3 2.23
2011:Q4 2.22
2012:Q1 2.12
2012:Q2 1.84
2012:Q3 1.92
2012:Q4 1.82
2013:Q1 1.90
2013:Q2 1.89
2013:Q3 1.88
2013:Q4 2.05
2014:Q1 1.70
2014:Q2 2.03
2014:Q3 2.27
2014:Q4 2.34
2015:Q1 2.75
2015:Q2 1.90
2015:Q3 1.89
2015:Q4 1.80
2016:Q1 1.70
2016:Q2 2.35
2016:Q3 2.18
2016:Q4 2.25
2017:Q1 2.31
2017:Q2 2.30
2017:Q3 2.60
2017:Q4 2.59
2018:Q1 2.81
2018:Q2 2.95
2018:Q3 2.85
2018:Q4 2.98
2019:Q1 2.73
2019:Q2 2.64
2019:Q3 2.69
2019:Q4 2.67
2020:Q1 2.81
2020:Q2 2.64
2020:Q3 2.48
2020:Q4 2.60
2021:Q1 2.87
2021:Q2 3.15

Percent
Monthly

  Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker
Jan-95 3.80
Feb-95 3.90
Mar-95 4.10
Apr-95 4.10
May-95 4.20
Jun-95 ND
Jul-95 ND
Aug-95 ND
Sep-95 ND
Oct-95 ND
Nov-95 ND
Dec-95 ND
Jan-96 ND
Feb-96 ND
Mar-96 ND
Apr-96 ND
May-96 ND
Jun-96 ND
Jul-96 ND
Aug-96 ND
Sep-96 ND
Oct-96 ND
Nov-96 4.10
Dec-96 4.30
Jan-97 4.40
Feb-97 4.50
Mar-97 4.50
Apr-97 4.60
May-97 4.50
Jun-97 4.60
Jul-97 4.80
Aug-97 4.90
Sep-97 4.80
Oct-97 4.80
Nov-97 4.80
Dec-97 4.90
Jan-98 4.90
Feb-98 4.80
Mar-98 4.60
Apr-98 4.90
May-98 5.20
Jun-98 5.40
Jul-98 5.40
Aug-98 5.30
Sep-98 5.10
Oct-98 5.00
Nov-98 4.90
Dec-98 5.00
Jan-99 5.00
Feb-99 5.00
Mar-99 5.20
Apr-99 5.20
May-99 5.20
Jun-99 4.90
Jul-99 5.00
Aug-99 4.80
Sep-99 5.00
Oct-99 5.10
Nov-99 5.20
Dec-99 5.00
Jan-00 4.90
Feb-00 4.80
Mar-00 4.80
Apr-00 4.90
May-00 4.90
Jun-00 5.00
Jul-00 5.10
Aug-00 5.10
Sep-00 5.20
Oct-00 5.20
Nov-00 5.40
Dec-00 5.40
Jan-01 5.40
Feb-01 5.30
Mar-01 5.30
Apr-01 5.30
May-01 5.10
Jun-01 5.20
Jul-01 5.10
Aug-01 5.20
Sep-01 5.00
Oct-01 5.00
Nov-01 5.00
Dec-01 5.00
Jan-02 4.90
Feb-02 4.70
Mar-02 4.60
Apr-02 4.30
May-02 4.40
Jun-02 4.20
Jul-02 4.10
Aug-02 4.00
Sep-02 3.90
Oct-02 3.80
Nov-02 3.50
Dec-02 3.60
Jan-03 3.70
Feb-03 3.90
Mar-03 3.70
Apr-03 3.50
May-03 3.50
Jun-03 3.60
Jul-03 3.70
Aug-03 3.50
Sep-03 3.50
Oct-03 3.40
Nov-03 3.40
Dec-03 3.30
Jan-04 3.30
Feb-04 3.40
Mar-04 3.40
Apr-04 3.40
May-04 3.40
Jun-04 3.30
Jul-04 3.40
Aug-04 3.50
Sep-04 3.70
Oct-04 3.70
Nov-04 3.70
Dec-04 3.50
Jan-05 3.60
Feb-05 3.50
Mar-05 3.60
Apr-05 3.50
May-05 3.60
Jun-05 3.80
Jul-05 4.00
Aug-05 4.00
Sep-05 4.10
Oct-05 4.00
Nov-05 4.20
Dec-05 4.10
Jan-06 4.00
Feb-06 3.80
Mar-06 3.80
Apr-06 3.80
May-06 3.90
Jun-06 3.80
Jul-06 3.70
Aug-06 3.80
Sep-06 3.80
Oct-06 3.80
Nov-06 3.90
Dec-06 4.00
Jan-07 4.20
Feb-07 4.10
Mar-07 4.30
Apr-07 4.10
May-07 4.10
Jun-07 4.00
Jul-07 4.20
Aug-07 4.30
Sep-07 4.40
Oct-07 4.30
Nov-07 4.30
Dec-07 4.10
Jan-08 3.90
Feb-08 3.90
Mar-08 4.00
Apr-08 4.10
May-08 4.10
Jun-08 4.10
Jul-08 4.10
Aug-08 4.00
Sep-08 4.00
Oct-08 4.00
Nov-08 4.00
Dec-08 3.80
Jan-09 3.70
Feb-09 3.40
Mar-09 3.30
Apr-09 3.20
May-09 3.30
Jun-09 3.10
Jul-09 3.00
Aug-09 2.50
Sep-09 2.30
Oct-09 2.10
Nov-09 2.10
Dec-09 1.70
Jan-10 1.60
Feb-10 1.70
Mar-10 1.90
Apr-10 1.90
May-10 1.60
Jun-10 1.70
Jul-10 1.80
Aug-10 2.00
Sep-10 1.90
Oct-10 1.70
Nov-10 1.70
Dec-10 1.70
Jan-11 1.90
Feb-11 1.90
Mar-11 1.90
Apr-11 1.90
May-11 2.00
Jun-11 2.00
Jul-11 2.10
Aug-11 2.20
Sep-11 2.10
Oct-11 2.20
Nov-11 2.00
Dec-11 2.00
Jan-12 1.90
Feb-12 1.90
Mar-12 2.00
Apr-12 2.20
May-12 2.10
Jun-12 2.30
Jul-12 2.10
Aug-12 2.10
Sep-12 2.10
Oct-12 2.10
Nov-12 2.30
Dec-12 2.30
Jan-13 2.30
Feb-13 2.30
Mar-13 2.20
Apr-13 2.20
May-13 2.20
Jun-13 2.10
Jul-13 2.30
Aug-13 2.30
Sep-13 2.40
Oct-13 2.20
Nov-13 2.00
Dec-13 2.20
Jan-14 2.30
Feb-14 2.50
Mar-14 2.40
Apr-14 2.30
May-14 2.30
Jun-14 2.30
Jul-14 2.40
Aug-14 2.40
Sep-14 2.60
Oct-14 2.80
Nov-14 2.90
Dec-14 2.90
Jan-15 3.00
Feb-15 3.00
Mar-15 3.20
Apr-15 3.30
May-15 3.30
Jun-15 3.20
Jul-15 3.10
Aug-15 3.10
Sep-15 3.00
Oct-15 2.90
Nov-15 3.10
Dec-15 3.10
Jan-16 3.10
Feb-16 3.20
Mar-16 3.20
Apr-16 3.40
May-16 3.50
Jun-16 3.60
Jul-16 3.40
Aug-16 3.30
Sep-16 3.60
Oct-16 3.90
Nov-16 3.90
Dec-16 3.50
Jan-17 3.20
Feb-17 3.20
Mar-17 3.40
Apr-17 3.50
May-17 3.40
Jun-17 3.20
Jul-17 3.30
Aug-17 3.40
Sep-17 3.60
Oct-17 3.40
Nov-17 3.20
Dec-17 2.90
Jan-18 3.00
Feb-18 2.90
Mar-18 3.30
Apr-18 3.30
May-18 3.20
Jun-18 3.20
Jul-18 3.30
Aug-18 3.50
Sep-18 3.50
Oct-18 3.70
Nov-18 3.90
Dec-18 3.80
Jan-19 3.80
Feb-19 3.40
Mar-19 3.50
Apr-19 3.60
May-19 3.70
Jun-19 3.90
Jul-19 3.90
Aug-19 3.70
Sep-19 3.60
Oct-19 3.50
Nov-19 3.70
Dec-19 3.70
Jan-20 3.80
Feb-20 3.70
Mar-20 3.50
Apr-20 3.30
May-20 3.50
Jun-20 3.80
Jul-20 3.90
Aug-20 3.50
Sep-20 3.50
Oct-20 3.50
Nov-20 3.70
Dec-20 3.40
Jan-21 3.40
Feb-21 3.40
Mar-21 3.40
Apr-21 3.20
May-21 3.00
Jun-21 3.20
Jul-21 3.70

Note: Employment Cost Index (ECI) data are 12-month percent changes ending in the last month of each quarter and extend through 2021:Q2. Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker data are 3-month moving averages of the 12-month percent change and extend through July 2021. The dashed line represents missing data.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker.

Figure 7. Inflation in Many Advanced Economies Has Run Consistently below 2 since the Late 1990s

Percent
Monthly

  Euro area Japan Switzerland Sweden Canada
Jan-95 3.16 1.2 2.62 2.97 1.15
Feb-95 3.12 1.15 2.54 2.98 1.15
Mar-95 3.07 1.09 2.45 2.99 1.17
Apr-95 3.03 1.01 2.36 3.01 1.19
May-95 2.98 0.96 2.30 3.03 1.23
Jun-95 2.95 0.89 2.24 3.05 1.28
Jul-95 2.92 0.86 2.19 3.07 1.32
Aug-95 2.89 0.8 2.15 3.08 1.35
Sep-95 2.86 0.75 2.11 3.08 1.37
Oct-95 2.85 0.7 2.06 3.08 1.39
Nov-95 2.83 0.67 2.02 3.11 1.41
Dec-95 2.80 0.62 1.98 3.13 1.39
Jan-96 2.77 0.57 1.93 3.04 1.38
Feb-96 2.74 0.52 1.86 2.95 1.35
Mar-96 2.71 0.48 1.78 2.85 1.34
Apr-96 2.68 0.46 1.70 2.74 1.33
May-96 2.65 0.45 1.62 2.63 1.32
Jun-96 2.62 0.42 1.55 2.51 1.31
Jul-96 2.59 0.38 1.48 2.39 1.30
Aug-96 2.55 0.33 1.40 2.26 1.29
Sep-96 2.50 0.29 1.32 2.14 1.28
Oct-96 2.46 0.27 1.25 2.01 1.28
Nov-96 2.42 0.26 1.20 1.86 1.29
Dec-96 2.38 0.25 1.16 1.73 1.30
Jan-97 2.36 0.23 1.12 1.68 1.33
Feb-97 2.33 0.22 1.09 1.61 1.39
Mar-97 2.29 0.2 1.07 1.54 1.44
Apr-97 2.25 0.23 1.06 1.49 1.49
May-97 2.21 0.25 1.06 1.43 1.53
Jun-97 2.17 0.3 1.06 1.37 1.58
Jul-97 2.14 0.36 1.06 1.31 1.62
Aug-97 2.11 0.41 1.06 1.27 1.67
Sep-97 2.08 0.48 1.05 1.24 1.71
Oct-97 2.06 0.52 1.05 1.22 1.76
Nov-97 2.03 0.56 1.05 1.20 1.78
Dec-97 2.00 0.58 1.04 1.17 1.79
Jan-98 1.96 0.62 1.02 1.13 1.81
Feb-98 1.92 0.66 0.97 1.08 1.78
Mar-98 1.89 0.73 0.93 1.03 1.75
Apr-98 1.85 0.75 0.89 0.96 1.71
May-98 1.82 0.76 0.83 0.89 1.65
Jun-98 1.78 0.76 0.78 0.82 1.60
Jul-98 1.75 0.75 0.72 0.74 1.56
Aug-98 1.72 0.75 0.67 0.66 1.52
Sep-98 1.68 0.74 0.62 0.56 1.47
Oct-98 1.64 0.76 0.56 0.47 1.44
Nov-98 1.59 0.8 0.51 0.38 1.41
Dec-98 1.55 0.83 0.45 0.29 1.39
Jan-99 1.51 0.85 0.41 0.23 1.37
Feb-99 1.47 0.86 0.40 0.19 1.36
Mar-99 1.44 0.85 0.38 0.15 1.34
Apr-99 1.41 0.85 0.38 0.13 1.35
May-99 1.37 0.83 0.37 0.11 1.35
Jun-99 1.34 0.82 0.37 0.11 1.36
Jul-99 1.31 0.81 0.37 0.10 1.37
Aug-99 1.29 0.80 0.38 0.12 1.39
Sep-99 1.28 0.78 0.40 0.15 1.42
Oct-99 1.27 0.75 0.41 0.19 1.43
Nov-99 1.26 0.70 0.42 0.23 1.44
Dec-99 1.26 0.65 0.45 0.28 1.45
Jan-00 1.25 0.62 0.47 0.31 1.45
Feb-00 1.26 0.59 0.49 0.35 1.46
Mar-00 1.27 0.57 0.52 0.40 1.50
Apr-00 1.28 0.50 0.54 0.43 1.51
May-00 1.29 0.44 0.57 0.46 1.53
Jun-00 1.31 0.38 0.61 0.48 1.57
Jul-00 1.33 0.31 0.65 0.48 1.60
Aug-00 1.34 0.25 0.66 0.48 1.62
Sep-00 1.36 0.17 0.69 0.47 1.65
Oct-00 1.38 0.08 0.72 0.46 1.69
Nov-00 1.41 0.01 0.76 0.46 1.76
Dec-00 1.43 -0.04 0.79 0.44 1.82
Jan-01 1.46 -0.10 0.83 0.46 1.87
Feb-01 1.48 -0.16 0.85 0.48 1.92
Mar-01 1.51 -0.24 0.88 0.51 1.96
Apr-01 1.55 -0.27 0.91 0.57 2.03
May-01 1.60 -0.31 0.96 0.64 2.11
Jun-01 1.64 -0.34 1.00 0.71 2.18
Jul-01 1.68 -0.36 1.04 0.79 2.22
Aug-01 1.71 -0.37 1.06 0.89 2.28
Sep-01 1.74 -0.38 1.08 1.00 2.34
Oct-01 1.78 -0.41 1.09 1.10 2.36
Nov-01 1.81 -0.46 1.10 1.19 2.34
Dec-01 1.85 -0.51 1.12 1.30 2.33
Jan-02 1.90 -0.56 1.13 1.38 2.35
Feb-02 1.95 -0.60 1.14 1.46 2.37
Mar-02 1.99 -0.62 1.14 1.53 2.39
Apr-02 2.03 -0.65 1.16 1.59 2.39
May-02 2.06 -0.66 1.16 1.64 2.38
Jun-02 2.09 -0.67 1.15 1.68 2.37
Jul-02 2.11 -0.69 1.13 1.73 2.38
Aug-02 2.14 -0.73 1.12 1.76 2.39
Sep-02 2.17 -0.74 1.10 1.77 2.39
Oct-02 2.19 -0.75 1.10 1.81 2.42
Nov-02 2.22 -0.73 1.09 1.85 2.47
Dec-02 2.23 -0.70 1.06 1.87 2.51
Jan-03 2.24 -0.70 1.04 1.93 2.56
Feb-03 2.25 -0.69 1.02 1.99 2.62
Mar-03 2.26 -0.69 1.02 2.05 2.65
Apr-03 2.27 -0.68 1.00 2.08 2.67
May-03 2.27 -0.67 0.97 2.10 2.68
Jun-03 2.27 -0.68 0.93 2.12 2.68
Jul-03 2.27 -0.67 0.89 2.14 2.65
Aug-03 2.26 -0.67 0.87 2.16 2.64
Sep-03 2.26 -0.66 0.85 2.17 2.63
Oct-03 2.25 -0.65 0.82 2.18 2.60
Nov-03 2.24 -0.65 0.78 2.17 2.55
Dec-03 2.23 -0.65 0.76 2.18 2.51
Jan-04 2.22 -0.65 0.73 2.15 2.47
Feb-04 2.21 -0.64 0.71 2.10 2.41
Mar-04 2.20 -0.62 0.68 2.04 2.36
Apr-04 2.18 -0.60 0.66 1.98 2.31
May-04 2.16 -0.60 0.64 1.91 2.27
Jun-04 2.15 -0.58 0.62 1.85 2.25
Jul-04 2.14 -0.56 0.61 1.79 2.24
Aug-04 2.14 -0.55 0.61 1.73 2.21
Sep-04 2.14 -0.53 0.61 1.66 2.19
Oct-04 2.14 -0.49 0.63 1.61 2.20
Nov-04 2.15 -0.44 0.67 1.56 2.25
Dec-04 2.16 -0.40 0.69 1.49 2.29
Jan-05 2.14 -0.36 0.71 1.41 2.31
Feb-05 2.13 -0.33 0.73 1.36 2.32
Mar-05 2.12 -0.30 0.76 1.29 2.34
Apr-05 2.11 -0.28 0.77 1.23 2.36
May-05 2.11 -0.26 0.78 1.19 2.37
Jun-05 2.11 -0.26 0.79 1.15 2.39
Jul-05 2.12 -0.26 0.83 1.10 2.38
Aug-05 2.12 -0.25 0.84 1.07 2.38
Sep-05 2.13 -0.25 0.86 1.04 2.40
Oct-05 2.14 -0.26 0.87 0.99 2.39
Nov-05 2.14 -0.29 0.87 0.95 2.33
Dec-05 2.13 -0.30 0.87 0.92 2.27
Jan-06 2.14 -0.29 0.88 0.86 2.23
Feb-06 2.14 -0.28 0.90 0.79 2.18
Mar-06 2.14 -0.28 0.89 0.74 2.12
Apr-06 2.15 -0.29 0.90 0.72 2.11
May-06 2.17 -0.28 0.92 0.71 2.11
Jun-06 2.18 -0.25 0.95 0.71 2.10
Jul-06 2.19 -0.24 0.98 0.71 2.10
Aug-06 2.20 -0.20 1.01 0.71 2.10
Sep-06 2.19 -0.18 1.02 0.71 2.06
Oct-06 2.18 -0.16 1.01 0.71 2.04
Nov-06 2.17 -0.14 1.01 0.72 2.04
Dec-06 2.17 -0.12 1.01 0.73 2.03
Jan-07 2.17 -0.11 1.01 0.76 2.03
Feb-07 2.18 -0.12 1.01 0.83 2.06
Mar-07 2.18 -0.12 1.01 0.89 2.11
Apr-07 2.18 -0.11 1.01 0.93 2.12
May-07 2.16 -0.09 1.00 0.96 2.11
Jun-07 2.15 -0.09 0.99 1.00 2.10
Jul-07 2.13 -0.09 0.98 1.04 2.09
Aug-07 2.12 -0.09 0.97 1.07 2.09
Sep-07 2.12 -0.09 0.96 1.12 2.11
Oct-07 2.12 -0.10 0.96 1.17 2.12
Nov-07 2.14 -0.10 0.97 1.25 2.12
Dec-07 2.17 -0.09 0.99 1.34 2.13
Jan-08 2.20 -0.07 1.02 1.43 2.13
Feb-08 2.23 -0.03 1.05 1.50 2.12
Mar-08 2.27 0.01 1.08 1.59 2.09
Apr-08 2.31 0.04 1.11 1.67 2.07
May-08 2.35 0.08 1.16 1.78 2.09
Jun-08 2.41 0.16 1.22 1.89 2.14
Jul-08 2.46 0.24 1.27 2.00 2.18
Aug-08 2.51 0.32 1.32 2.10 2.22
Sep-08 2.54 0.40 1.37 2.21 2.22
Oct-08 2.56 0.48 1.40 2.30 2.21
Nov-08 2.55 0.54 1.42 2.35 2.21
Dec-08 2.53 0.57 1.41 2.35 2.18
Jan-09 2.49 0.57 1.38 2.37 2.13
Feb-09 2.46 0.57 1.34 2.38 2.10
Mar-09 2.42 0.57 1.30 2.35 2.07
Apr-09 2.37 0.57 1.26 2.31 2.01
May-09 2.30 0.53 1.20 2.25 1.93
Jun-09 2.23 0.47 1.13 2.19 1.86
Jul-09 2.14 0.40 1.06 2.11 1.77
Aug-09 2.07 0.31 0.99 2.04 1.70
Sep-09 2.01 0.23 0.95 1.96 1.66
Oct-09 1.97 0.15 0.92 1.88 1.63
Nov-09 1.93 0.09 0.90 1.82 1.62
Dec-09 1.90 0.03 0.89 1.79 1.61
Jan-10 1.88 0.00 0.92 1.76 1.63
Feb-10 1.85 -0.02 0.95 1.74 1.62
Mar-10 1.84 -0.04 0.98 1.72 1.59
Apr-10 1.83 -0.07 1.01 1.69 1.57
May-10 1.83 -0.09 1.02 1.68 1.55
Jun-10 1.82 -0.10 1.02 1.65 1.53
Jul-10 1.81 -0.12 1.01 1.63 1.53
Aug-10 1.81 -0.13 1.01 1.61 1.53
Sep-10 1.80 -0.15 0.99 1.59 1.51
Oct-10 1.79 -0.15 0.96 1.55 1.50
Nov-10 1.75 -0.17 0.92 1.51 1.49
Dec-10 1.73 -0.20 0.88 1.48 1.49
Jan-11 1.71 -0.24 0.82 1.45 1.49
Feb-11 1.68 -0.29 0.77 1.42 1.50
Mar-11 1.66 -0.33 0.72 1.40 1.55
Apr-11 1.64 -0.37 0.67 1.39 1.60
May-11 1.62 -0.41 0.60 1.36 1.63
Jun-11 1.58 -0.48 0.53 1.32 1.63
Jul-11 1.54 -0.54 0.46 1.28 1.61
Aug-11 1.51 -0.59 0.39 1.25 1.59
Sep-11 1.49 -0.66 0.32 1.21 1.59
Oct-11 1.48 -0.71 0.24 1.17 1.60
Nov-11 1.51 -0.75 0.19 1.17 1.63
Dec-11 1.54 -0.77 0.15 1.20 1.66
Jan-12 1.58 -0.76 0.12 1.21 1.70
Feb-12 1.63 -0.75 0.09 1.24 1.73
Mar-12 1.69 -0.72 0.08 1.27 1.76
Apr-12 1.74 -0.70 0.06 1.31 1.80
May-12 1.81 -0.66 0.06 1.36 1.83
Jun-12 1.88 -0.62 0.05 1.41 1.88
Jul-12 1.96 -0.57 0.07 1.46 1.94
Aug-12 2.04 -0.53 0.08 1.50 1.99
Sep-12 2.12 -0.47 0.09 1.56 2.05
Oct-12 2.19 -0.42 0.11 1.61 2.08
Nov-12 2.24 -0.37 0.10 1.62 2.07
Dec-12 2.28 -0.32 0.08 1.60 2.06
Jan-13 2.31 -0.30 0.04 1.58 2.03
Feb-13 2.33 -0.29 0.01 1.54 2.02
Mar-13 2.34 -0.29 -0.05 1.51 2.01
Apr-13 2.33 -0.28 -0.10 1.46 1.97
May-13 2.32 -0.27 -0.15 1.43 1.95
Jun-13 2.32 -0.25 -0.17 1.40 1.95
Jul-13 2.32 -0.21 -0.18 1.37 1.93
Aug-13 2.31 -0.16 -0.19 1.35 1.91
Sep-13 2.29 -0.12 -0.20 1.31 1.89
Oct-13 2.26 -0.09 -0.21 1.27 1.84
Nov-13 2.23 -0.04 -0.21 1.22 1.81
Dec-13 2.19 0.01 -0.23 1.16 1.78
Jan-14 2.15 0.07 -0.23 1.09 1.76
Feb-14 2.10 0.12 -0.25 1.03 1.74
Mar-14 2.04 0.18 -0.28 0.94 1.69
Apr-14 1.98 0.29 -0.28 0.86 1.66
May-14 1.92 0.41 -0.29 0.77 1.62
Jun-14 1.86 0.52 -0.30 0.70 1.59
Jul-14 1.79 0.61 -0.31 0.61 1.58
Aug-14 1.73 0.69 -0.32 0.53 1.55
Sep-14 1.66 0.79 -0.33 0.44 1.52
Oct-14 1.59 0.87 -0.33 0.36 1.50
Nov-14 1.51 0.95 -0.32 0.29 1.48
Dec-14 1.43 1.03 -0.31 0.22 1.46
Jan-15 1.34 1.09 -0.30 0.17 1.41
Feb-15 1.25 1.14 -0.30 0.11 1.37
Mar-15 1.18 1.19 -0.30 0.08 1.35
Apr-15 1.11 1.20 -0.30 0.03 1.31
May-15 1.06 1.21 -0.30 0.01 1.30
Jun-15 1.01 1.22 -0.30 -0.03 1.30
Jul-15 0.96 1.24 -0.32 -0.05 1.30
Aug-15 0.90 1.26 -0.35 -0.08 1.30
Sep-15 0.83 1.27 -0.37 -0.09 1.30
Oct-15 0.77 1.29 -0.41 -0.10 1.30
Nov-15 0.71 1.30 -0.43 -0.09 1.31
Dec-15 0.66 1.30 -0.46 -0.09 1.32
Jan-16 0.61 1.30 -0.49 -0.07 1.36
Feb-16 0.56 1.33 -0.50 -0.05 1.37
Mar-16 0.51 1.35 -0.51 -0.03 1.37
Apr-16 0.47 1.36 -0.50 0.00 1.41
May-16 0.43 1.36 -0.50 0.03 1.43
Jun-16 0.38 1.35 -0.51 0.06 1.44
Jul-16 0.34 1.32 -0.51 0.09 1.44
Aug-16 0.31 1.28 -0.51 0.12 1.44
Sep-16 0.29 1.23 -0.52 0.14 1.45
Oct-16 0.29 1.21 -0.52 0.17 1.48
Nov-16 0.28 1.18 -0.53 0.21 1.49
Dec-16 0.29 1.14 -0.53 0.25 1.49
Jan-17 0.31 1.12 -0.52 0.30 1.51
Feb-17 0.35 1.08 -0.50 0.35 1.53
Mar-17 0.38 1.04 -0.48 0.40 1.54
Apr-17 0.41 0.95 -0.47 0.46 1.52
May-17 0.43 0.86 -0.47 0.51 1.50
Jun-17 0.46 0.78 -0.46 0.55 1.46
Jul-17 0.48 0.69 -0.45 0.61 1.44
Aug-17 0.52 0.62 -0.44 0.68 1.42
Sep-17 0.55 0.55 -0.42 0.75 1.40
Oct-17 0.58 0.48 -0.40 0.80 1.37
Nov-17 0.61 0.43 -0.38 0.85 1.38
Dec-17 0.66 0.39 -0.35 0.91 1.39
Jan-18 0.71 0.36 -0.31 0.96 1.41
Feb-18 0.75 0.34 -0.27 1.00 1.44
Mar-18 0.79 0.30 -0.23 1.05 1.47
Apr-18 0.82 0.29 -0.17 1.11 1.51
May-18 0.85 0.30 -0.11 1.16 1.54
Jun-18 0.89 0.31 -0.05 1.23 1.58
Jul-18 0.94 0.33 0.02 1.29 1.62
Aug-18 0.99 0.36 0.09 1.35 1.66
Sep-18 1.04 0.39 0.16 1.41 1.70
Oct-18 1.09 0.43 0.23 1.47 1.74
Nov-18 1.14 0.44 0.29 1.52 1.75
Dec-18 1.18 0.45 0.35 1.58 1.76
Jan-19 1.21 0.46 0.40 1.61 1.75
Feb-19 1.25 0.45 0.44 1.65 1.75
Mar-19 1.29 0.47 0.48 1.68 1.77
Apr-19 1.35 0.50 0.51 1.72 1.78
May-19 1.38 0.53 0.54 1.76 1.80
Jun-19 1.42 0.56 0.57 1.78 1.82
Jul-19 1.44 0.59 0.58 1.80 1.85
Aug-19 1.46 0.61 0.59 1.80 1.87
Sep-19 1.47 0.63 0.60 1.82 1.88
Oct-19 1.48 0.63 0.60 1.83 1.89
Nov-19 1.49 0.63 0.61 1.84 1.91
Dec-19 1.50 0.64 0.61 1.84 1.93
Jan-20 1.49 0.66 0.61 1.84 1.94
Feb-20 1.47 0.67 0.59 1.82 1.94
Mar-20 1.44 0.68 0.56 1.80 1.92
Apr-20 1.40 0.67 0.52 1.74 1.87
May-20 1.36 0.66 0.47 1.69 1.83
Jun-20 1.34 0.65 0.42 1.66 1.82
Jul-20 1.31 0.64 0.39 1.62 1.79
Aug-20 1.26 0.63 0.35 1.58 1.76
Sep-20 1.21 0.60 0.31 1.53 1.74
Oct-20 1.16 0.58 0.28 1.49 1.72
Nov-20 1.11 0.54 0.24 1.45 1.68
Dec-20 1.07 0.48 0.19 1.41 1.65
Jan-21 1.06 0.43 0.16 1.41 1.63
Feb-21 1.05 0.37 0.12 1.41 1.60
Mar-21 1.05 0.33 0.10 1.40 1.60
Apr-21 1.06 0.28 0.08 1.41 1.63
May-21 1.06 0.25 0.07 1.41 1.67
Jun-21 1.06 0.21 0.05 1.39 1.68
Jul-21 1.06 0.18 0.04 1.37 1.70

Note: The data are 36-month moving averages, extend through July 2021, and are based on seasonally adjusted data except for Canada in 1995 and Japan from January 1995 through March 1999.

Source: For Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; for Sweden, Switzerland, and the euro area, Statistical Office of the European Communities; for Canada, Statistics Canada; all via Haver Analytics.

Last Update: August 27, 2021