Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,
Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 22, 2025
Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review
Jerome H. Powell
Chair, Federal Reserve Board
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Figure 1: Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Date | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 4.0 |
| 2022-02-01 | 3.8 |
| 2022-03-01 | 3.7 |
| 2022-04-01 | 3.7 |
| 2022-05-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-06-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-07-01 | 3.5 |
| 2022-08-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-09-01 | 3.5 |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.6 |
| 2022-12-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-02-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-03-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-04-01 | 3.4 |
| 2023-05-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-06-01 | 3.6 |
| 2023-07-01 | 3.5 |
| 2023-08-01 | 3.7 |
| 2023-09-01 | 3.8 |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.9 |
| 2023-11-01 | 3.7 |
| 2023-12-01 | 3.8 |
| 2024-01-01 | 3.7 |
| 2024-02-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.9 |
| 2024-05-01 | 4.0 |
| 2024-06-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-08-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-09-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.1 |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.2 |
| 2024-12-01 | 4.1 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.0 |
| 2025-02-01 | 4.1 |
| 2025-03-01 | 4.2 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.2 |
| 2025-05-01 | 4.2 |
| 2025-06-01 | 4.1 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.2 |
Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll Gains
Thousands, 3-month average
| Date | Current (Aug. 1 report) gains |
|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 479.00 |
| 2022-02-01 | 556.33 |
| 2022-03-01 | 521.67 |
| 2022-04-01 | 548.33 |
| 2022-05-01 | 339.00 |
| 2022-06-01 | 335.67 |
| 2022-07-01 | 466.00 |
| 2022-08-01 | 464.67 |
| 2022-09-01 | 386.67 |
| 2022-10-01 | 288.00 |
| 2022-11-01 | 308.00 |
| 2022-12-01 | 274.33 |
| 2023-01-01 | 289.00 |
| 2023-02-01 | 292.00 |
| 2023-03-01 | 278.33 |
| 2023-04-01 | 202.33 |
| 2023-05-01 | 176.00 |
| 2023-06-01 | 233.33 |
| 2023-07-01 | 210.67 |
| 2023-08-01 | 187.33 |
| 2023-09-01 | 154.33 |
| 2023-10-01 | 167.00 |
| 2023-11-01 | 161.67 |
| 2023-12-01 | 198.67 |
| 2024-01-01 | 176.33 |
| 2024-02-01 | 203.33 |
| 2024-03-01 | 195.67 |
| 2024-04-01 | 195.33 |
| 2024-05-01 | 185.67 |
| 2024-06-01 | 132.67 |
| 2024-07-01 | 122.67 |
| 2024-08-01 | 82.00 |
| 2024-09-01 | 133.00 |
| 2024-10-01 | 118.33 |
| 2024-11-01 | 181.67 |
| 2024-12-01 | 209.33 |
| 2025-01-01 | 231.67 |
| 2025-02-01 | 178.67 |
| 2025-03-01 | 111.00 |
| 2025-04-01 | 126.67 |
| 2025-05-01 | 99.00 |
| 2025-06-01 | 63.67 |
| 2025-07-01 | 35.33 |
Note: Seasonally adjusted. The red dots reflect the May (140.67) and June (149.67) readings as of the employment report released July 3. Values reported are a three-month moving average.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 3: Real GDP
Percent, annual rate
| Date | GDP Growth |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 2.1 |
| 2019 | 3.4 |
| 2020 | -1.0 |
| 2021 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 1.3 |
| 2023 | 3.2 |
| 2024 H1 | 2.3 |
| 2024 H2 | 2.8 |
| 2025 H1 | 1.2 |
Note: Percent change from preceding period. The vertical line separates yearly GDP data from half-yearly GDP data. Annual GDP values represent Q4:Q4 comparisons, and half-year GDP values represent Q4:Q2 and Q2:Q4 comparisons. Seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Figure 4: Price Indexes for Components of Core PCE Inflation
Percent change from year earlier
| Date | Core Goods | Core Services Less Housing | Housing Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 6.91 | 5.13 | 4.05 |
| 2022-02-01 | 7.66 | 5.13 | 4.31 |
| 2022-03-01 | 7.47 | 5.08 | 4.56 |
| 2022-04-01 | 6.35 | 5.03 | 4.85 |
| 2022-05-01 | 5.72 | 4.94 | 5.18 |
| 2022-06-01 | 5.72 | 5.05 | 5.61 |
| 2022-07-01 | 5.50 | 4.66 | 6.01 |
| 2022-08-01 | 5.61 | 4.90 | 6.47 |
| 2022-09-01 | 5.75 | 5.16 | 6.86 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.68 | 5.33 | 7.08 |
| 2022-11-01 | 3.92 | 5.14 | 7.34 |
| 2022-12-01 | 3.16 | 4.93 | 7.74 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2.65 | 5.10 | 7.95 |
| 2023-02-01 | 2.26 | 5.07 | 8.18 |
| 2023-03-01 | 2.49 | 4.79 | 8.21 |
| 2023-04-01 | 2.50 | 4.78 | 8.27 |
| 2023-05-01 | 2.49 | 4.68 | 8.18 |
| 2023-06-01 | 1.71 | 4.52 | 7.92 |
| 2023-07-01 | 1.18 | 4.64 | 7.73 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.56 | 4.16 | 7.40 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.25 | 4.17 | 7.12 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.37 | 3.80 | 6.89 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.22 | 3.54 | 6.68 |
| 2023-12-01 | -0.04 | 3.43 | 6.33 |
| 2024-01-01 | -0.51 | 3.74 | 6.17 |
| 2024-02-01 | -0.41 | 3.53 | 5.90 |
| 2024-03-01 | -0.53 | 3.69 | 5.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | -0.54 | 3.58 | 5.66 |
| 2024-05-01 | -0.99 | 3.43 | 5.55 |
| 2024-06-01 | -0.74 | 3.31 | 5.34 |
| 2024-07-01 | -0.42 | 3.25 | 5.24 |
| 2024-08-01 | -0.51 | 3.39 | 5.27 |
| 2024-09-01 | -0.38 | 3.25 | 5.09 |
| 2024-10-01 | -0.36 | 3.54 | 5.05 |
| 2024-11-01 | -0.14 | 3.52 | 4.82 |
| 2024-12-01 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 4.70 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.30 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.42 | 3.62 | 4.33 |
| 2025-03-01 | 0.08 | 3.35 | 4.29 |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.26 | 3.15 | 4.23 |
| 2025-05-01 | 0.68 | 3.24 | 4.07 |
| 2025-06-01 | 0.97 | 3.21 | 4.08 |
| 2025-07-01 | 1.07 | 3.40 | 3.96 |
Note: Core goods inflation is the change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding energy and food. Core services inflation is the change in the PCE price index excluding energy services. The data for July 2025 are estimates based on consumer price index and producer price index data.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 5: Forecasts Made in December 2021
Percent
| 2021 Q4/Q4 core inflation | 2022 Q4/Q4 core inflation | End-2022 policy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEP median | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.90 |
| Blue Chip consensus | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.50* |
| Primary Dealer median | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.75 |
Note: SEP is Summary of Economic Projections.
* Blue Chip reports projections of the 3-month T-bill rate in the fourth quarter. Return to table
Source: Federal Reserve Board; Blue Chip; Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Figure 6: Longer-Run Federal Funds Rate: Summary of Economic Projections and Survey of Primary Dealers
Summary of Economic Projections
Percent
| SEP Date | SEP Federal Funds | SEP Federal Funds Lower Percentile | SEP Federal Funds Higher Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-01-25 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| 2012-04-25 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| 2012-06-20 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| 2012-09-13 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| 2012-12-12 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| 2013-03-20 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| 2013-06-19 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| 2013-09-18 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| 2013-12-18 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-03-19 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-06-18 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-09-17 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-12-17 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2015-03-18 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| 2015-06-17 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| 2015-09-17 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| 2015-12-16 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| 2016-03-16 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| 2016-06-15 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| 2016-09-21 | 2.88 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2016-12-14 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2017-03-15 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2017-06-14 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2017-09-20 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| 2017-12-13 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2018-03-21 | 2.88 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2018-06-13 | 2.88 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2018-09-26 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2018-12-19 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| 2019-03-20 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| 2019-06-19 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| 2019-09-18 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| 2019-12-11 | 2.50 | 2.38 | 2.75 |
| 2020-06-10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2020-09-16 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2020-12-16 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2021-03-17 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2021-06-16 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2021-09-22 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2021-12-15 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2022-03-16 | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2022-06-15 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2022-09-21 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2022-12-14 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 2023-03-22 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| 2023-06-14 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.80 |
| 2023-09-20 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.30 |
| 2023-12-13 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| 2024-03-20 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 3.10 |
| 2024-06-12 | 2.80 | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| 2024-09-18 | 2.90 | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| 2024-12-18 | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| 2025-03-19 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| 2025-06-18 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 3.60 |
Survey of Primary Dealers
Percent
| FRBNY Date | FRBNY Federal Funds 25th Decile | FRBNY Federal Funds | FRBNY Federal Funds 75th Decile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-06-11 | 3.94 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2012-07-23 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2012-09-04 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2012-10-15 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2012-12-03 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2012-12-17 | 3.88 | 4.00 | 4.06 |
| 2013-01-22 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2013-03-11 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.06 |
| 2013-04-22 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2013-06-10 | 3.69 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2013-07-22 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2013-09-09 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2013-09-23 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2013-10-22 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2013-12-09 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2014-01-21 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2014-03-10 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| 2014-03-24 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| 2014-04-22 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| 2014-06-09 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-07-21 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-09-08 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-10-20 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 2014-12-08 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.94 |
| 2015-01-20 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.94 |
| 2015-03-09 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.69 |
| 2015-04-20 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.69 |
| 2015-06-08 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| 2015-07-20 | 3.25 | 3.38 | 3.69 |
| 2015-09-08 | 3.06 | 3.38 | 3.69 |
| 2015-10-19 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| 2015-12-07 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| 2016-01-19 | 2.93 | 3.25 | 3.47 |
| 2016-03-07 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| 2016-03-21 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.34 |
| 2016-04-18 | 2.93 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 2016-06-06 | 2.81 | 3.13 | 3.25 |
| 2016-07-18 | 2.63 | 3.00 | 3.13 |
| 2016-09-12 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2016-10-24 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2016-12-05 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2017-01-23 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2017-03-06 | 2.63 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2017-04-24 | 2.63 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2017-06-05 | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| 2017-07-17 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2017-09-11 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2017-10-23 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.94 |
| 2017-12-04 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.94 |
| 2018-01-22 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.94 |
| 2018-03-12 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.94 |
| 2018-04-23 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.94 |
| 2018-06-04 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.94 |
| 2018-07-23 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2018-09-17 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2018-10-29 | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| 2018-12-10 | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| 2019-01-22 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.94 |
| 2019-03-11 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
| 2019-04-22 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.81 |
| 2019-06-10 | 2.50 | 2.63 | 2.81 |
| 2019-07-22 | 2.34 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| 2019-09-09 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.53 |
| 2019-10-21 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.53 |
| 2019-12-02 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.53 |
| 2020-01-21 | 2.25 | 2.40 | 2.53 |
| 2020-03-09 | 2.09 | 2.25 | 2.53 |
| 2020-04-20 | 2.00 | 2.19 | 2.50 |
| 2020-06-01 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2020-07-20 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2020-09-08 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2020-10-26 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2020-12-07 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2021-01-19 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2021-03-08 | 2.19 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2021-04-19 | 2.19 | 2.31 | 2.50 |
| 2021-06-07 | 2.09 | 2.31 | 2.50 |
| 2021-07-19 | 2.09 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2021-09-13 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2021-10-25 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.41 |
| 2021-12-06 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.41 |
| 2022-01-18 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.41 |
| 2022-03-07 | 2.13 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2022-04-25 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 2.50 |
| 2022-06-06 | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.50 |
| 2022-07-18 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 2.50 |
| 2022-09-12 | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.50 |
| 2022-09-28 | 2.25 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| 2022-10-24 | 2.25 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| 2022-12-05 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| 2023-01-23 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| 2023-03-13 | 2.38 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| 2023-04-24 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| 2023-06-05 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| 2023-07-17 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.66 |
| 2023-09-11 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| 2023-10-23 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2023-12-04 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| 2024-01-22 | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.03 |
| 2024-03-11 | 2.50 | 2.94 | 3.13 |
| 2024-04-22 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.16 |
| 2024-06-03 | 2.81 | 3.13 | 3.19 |
| 2024-07-22 | 2.86 | 3.13 | 3.38 |
| 2024-09-09 | 2.79 | 3.06 | 3.25 |
| 2024-10-28 | 2.80 | 3.13 | 3.28 |
| 2024-12-09 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 3.38 |
| 2025-01-21 | 3.00 | 3.19 | 3.50 |
| 2025-03-10 | 3.00 | 3.13 | 3.50 |
| 2025-04-28 | 3.00 | 3.13 | 3.50 |
| 2025-06-09 | 3.00 | 3.13 | 3.50 |
Note: The green shading is the central tendency from the Summary of Economic Projections. The blue shading represents the 25th to 75th percentile of responses from the Survey of Primary Dealers.
Source: Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of New York.