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Financial Stability Report - November 2024

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Overview of financial system vulnerabilities

Asset valuations

  • Valuation pressures remained elevated in a range of markets, including those for equity, corporate debt, and residential real estate.
  • Liquidity in financial markets was generally low and can become strained during periods of volatility.
  • Transaction-based prices for commercial properties changed little but fundamentals deteriorated across multiple sectors.

Borrowing by businesses and households

  • Vulnerabilities from business and household debt remained moderate.
  • Business leverage remained elevated by historical standards.
  • Household debt was at modest levels relative to gross domestic product and mostly owed by prime-rated borrowers.
  • Auto and credit card loan delinquencies remained above pre-pandemic levels, in part reflecting extension of credit to riskier borrowers.

Leverage in the financial sector

  • The banking system remained sound and resilient, with regulatory capital ratios approaching or exceeding historical highs.
  • Banks' market-adjusted capital levels improved modestly, on net, and remain sensitive to changes in interest rates.
  • Broker-dealer leverage continued to be low.
  • Hedge fund leverage was at or near the highest level since 2013.

Funding risks

  • Most domestic banks maintained high levels of liquid assets and stable funding.
  • Uninsured deposits have decreased, but some banks have increased brokered and reciprocal deposits or short-term wholesale funding.
  • Reforms implemented by the Securities and Exchange Commission have mitigated some vulnerabilities arising from institutional prime money market funds, but other short-term investment vehicles with structural vulnerabilities continued to grow.
  • Nontraditional liabilities at life insurers continued to be higher than average.
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Survey of salient risks to the financial system

Survey respondents cited several emerging and existing events or conditions as presenting risks to the U.S. financial system and the broader global economy. For more information, see the box "Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability."

  Fiscal debt sustainability Middle East tensions Policy uncertainty U.S. recession Persistent inflation; monetary tightening
October 2024 54% of contacts surveyed 46% of contacts surveyed 46% of contacts surveyed 38% of contacts surveyed 33% of contacts surveyed
April 2024 40% of contacts surveyed 32% of contacts surveyed 60% of contacts surveyed 28% of contacts surveyed 72% of contacts surveyed
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Figure 1.1. Nominal Treasury yields fell but remained high

Percent, annual rate

Date 2-year 10-year
1997-01-01 6.01 6.58
1997-02-01 5.9 6.42
1997-03-01 6.22 6.69
1997-04-01 6.45 6.89
1997-05-01 6.28 6.71
1997-06-01 6.09 6.49
1997-07-01 5.89 6.22
1997-08-01 5.94 6.3
1997-09-01 5.88 6.21
1997-10-01 5.77 6.03
1997-11-01 5.71 5.88
1997-12-01 5.72 5.81
1998-01-01 5.36 5.54
1998-02-01 5.42 5.57
1998-03-01 5.56 5.65
1998-04-01 5.56 5.64
1998-05-01 5.59 5.65
1998-06-01 5.52 5.5
1998-07-01 5.46 5.46
1998-08-01 5.27 5.34
1998-09-01 4.67 4.81
1998-10-01 4.09 4.53
1998-11-01 4.54 4.83
1998-12-01 4.51 4.65
1999-01-01 4.62 4.72
1999-02-01 4.88 5
1999-03-01 5.05 5.23
1999-04-01 4.98 5.18
1999-05-01 5.25 5.54
1999-06-01 5.62 5.9
1999-07-01 5.55 5.79
1999-08-01 5.68 5.94
1999-09-01 5.66 5.92
1999-10-01 5.86 6.11
1999-11-01 5.86 6.03
1999-12-01 6.1 6.28
2000-01-01 6.44 6.66
2000-02-01 6.61 6.52
2000-03-01 6.53 6.26
2000-04-01 6.4 5.99
2000-05-01 6.81 6.44
2000-06-01 6.48 6.1
2000-07-01 6.34 6.05
2000-08-01 6.23 5.83
2000-09-01 6.08 5.8
2000-10-01 5.91 5.74
2000-11-01 5.88 5.72
2000-12-01 5.35 5.24
2001-01-01 4.76 5.16
2001-02-01 4.66 5.1
2001-03-01 4.34 4.89
2001-04-01 4.23 5.14
2001-05-01 4.26 5.39
2001-06-01 4.08 5.28
2001-07-01 4.04 5.24
2001-08-01 3.76 4.97
2001-09-01 3.12 4.73
2001-10-01 2.73 4.57
2001-11-01 2.78 4.65
2001-12-01 3.11 5.09
2002-01-01 3.03 5.04
2002-02-01 3.02 4.91
2002-03-01 3.56 5.28
2002-04-01 3.42 5.21
2002-05-01 3.26 5.16
2002-06-01 2.99 4.93
2002-07-01 2.56 4.65
2002-08-01 2.13 4.26
2002-09-01 2 3.87
2002-10-01 1.91 3.94
2002-11-01 1.92 4.05
2002-12-01 1.84 4.03
2003-01-01 1.74 4.05
2003-02-01 1.63 3.9
2003-03-01 1.57 3.81
2003-04-01 1.62 3.96
2003-05-01 1.42 3.57
2003-06-01 1.23 3.33
2003-07-01 1.47 3.98
2003-08-01 1.86 4.45
2003-09-01 1.71 4.27
2003-10-01 1.75 4.29
2003-11-01 1.93 4.3
2003-12-01 1.91 4.27
2004-01-01 1.76 4.15
2004-02-01 1.74 4.08
2004-03-01 1.58 3.83
2004-04-01 2.07 4.35
2004-05-01 2.53 4.72
2004-06-01 2.76 4.73
2004-07-01 2.64 4.5
2004-08-01 2.51 4.28
2004-09-01 2.53 4.13
2004-10-01 2.58 4.1
2004-11-01 2.85 4.19
2004-12-01 3.01 4.23
2005-01-01 3.22 4.22
2005-02-01 3.38 4.17
2005-03-01 3.73 4.5
2005-04-01 3.65 4.34
2005-05-01 3.64 4.14
2005-06-01 3.64 4
2005-07-01 3.87 4.18
2005-08-01 4.04 4.26
2005-09-01 3.95 4.2
2005-10-01 4.27 4.46
2005-11-01 4.42 4.54
2005-12-01 4.4 4.47
2006-01-01 4.4 4.42
2006-02-01 4.67 4.57
2006-03-01 4.73 4.72
2006-04-01 4.89 4.99
2006-05-01 4.97 5.11
2006-06-01 5.12 5.11
2006-07-01 5.12 5.09
2006-08-01 4.9 4.88
2006-09-01 4.77 4.72
2006-10-01 4.8 4.73
2006-11-01 4.74 4.6
2006-12-01 4.67 4.56
2007-01-01 4.88 4.76
2007-02-01 4.85 4.72
2007-03-01 4.57 4.56
2007-04-01 4.67 4.69
2007-05-01 4.77 4.75
2007-06-01 4.98 5.1
2007-07-01 4.82 5
2007-08-01 4.31 4.67
2007-09-01 4.01 4.52
2007-10-01 3.97 4.53
2007-11-01 3.34 4.15
2007-12-01 3.12 4.1
2008-01-01 2.48 3.74
2008-02-01 1.97 3.74
2008-03-01 1.62 3.51
2008-04-01 2.05 3.68
2008-05-01 2.45 3.88
2008-06-01 2.77 4.1
2008-07-01 2.57 4.01
2008-08-01 2.42 3.89
2008-09-01 2.08 3.69
2008-10-01 1.61 3.81
2008-11-01 1.21 3.53
2008-12-01 0.82 2.42
2009-01-01 0.81 2.52
2009-02-01 0.98 2.87
2009-03-01 0.93 2.82
2009-04-01 0.93 2.93
2009-05-01 0.93 3.29
2009-06-01 1.18 3.72
2009-07-01 1.02 3.56
2009-08-01 1.12 3.59
2009-09-01 0.96 3.4
2009-10-01 0.95 3.39
2009-11-01 0.8 3.4
2009-12-01 0.87 3.59
2010-01-01 0.93 3.73
2010-02-01 0.86 3.69
2010-03-01 0.96 3.73
2010-04-01 1.06 3.85
2010-05-01 0.83 3.42
2010-06-01 0.72 3.2
2010-07-01 0.62 3.01
2010-08-01 0.52 2.7
2010-09-01 0.48 2.65
2010-10-01 0.38 2.54
2010-11-01 0.45 2.76
2010-12-01 0.62 3.29
2011-01-01 0.61 3.39
2011-02-01 0.77 3.58
2011-03-01 0.7 3.41
2011-04-01 0.73 3.46
2011-05-01 0.56 3.17
2011-06-01 0.41 3
2011-07-01 0.41 3
2011-08-01 0.23 2.3
2011-09-01 0.21 1.98
2011-10-01 0.28 2.15
2011-11-01 0.25 2.01
2011-12-01 0.26 1.98
2012-01-01 0.24 1.97
2012-02-01 0.28 1.97
2012-03-01 0.34 2.17
2012-04-01 0.29 2.05
2012-05-01 0.29 1.8
2012-06-01 0.29 1.62
2012-07-01 0.25 1.53
2012-08-01 0.27 1.68
2012-09-01 0.26 1.72
2012-10-01 0.28 1.75
2012-11-01 0.27 1.65
2012-12-01 0.26 1.72
2013-01-01 0.27 1.91
2013-02-01 0.27 1.98
2013-03-01 0.26 1.96
2013-04-01 0.23 1.76
2013-05-01 0.25 1.93
2013-06-01 0.33 2.3
2013-07-01 0.34 2.58
2013-08-01 0.36 2.74
2013-09-01 0.4 2.81
2013-10-01 0.34 2.62
2013-11-01 0.3 2.72
2013-12-01 0.34 2.9
2014-01-01 0.39 2.86
2014-02-01 0.33 2.71
2014-03-01 0.4 2.72
2014-04-01 0.42 2.71
2014-05-01 0.39 2.56
2014-06-01 0.45 2.6
2014-07-01 0.51 2.54
2014-08-01 0.47 2.42
2014-09-01 0.57 2.53
2014-10-01 0.45 2.3
2014-11-01 0.53 2.33
2014-12-01 0.64 2.21
2015-01-01 0.55 1.88
2015-02-01 0.62 1.98
2015-03-01 0.64 2.04
2015-04-01 0.54 1.94
2015-05-01 0.61 2.2
2015-06-01 0.69 2.36
2015-07-01 0.67 2.32
2015-08-01 0.7 2.17
2015-09-01 0.71 2.17
2015-10-01 0.64 2.07
2015-11-01 0.88 2.26
2015-12-01 0.98 2.24
2016-01-01 0.9 2.09
2016-02-01 0.73 1.78
2016-03-01 0.88 1.89
2016-04-01 0.77 1.81
2016-05-01 0.82 1.81
2016-06-01 0.73 1.64
2016-07-01 0.67 1.5
2016-08-01 0.74 1.56
2016-09-01 0.77 1.63
2016-10-01 0.84 1.76
2016-11-01 0.98 2.14
2016-12-01 1.2 2.49
2017-01-01 1.21 2.43
2017-02-01 1.2 2.42
2017-03-01 1.31 2.48
2017-04-01 1.24 2.3
2017-05-01 1.3 2.3
2017-06-01 1.34 2.19
2017-07-01 1.37 2.32
2017-08-01 1.34 2.21
2017-09-01 1.38 2.2
2017-10-01 1.55 2.36
2017-11-01 1.7 2.35
2017-12-01 1.84 2.4
2018-01-01 2.03 2.58
2018-02-01 2.18 2.86
2018-03-01 2.28 2.84
2018-04-01 2.38 2.87
2018-05-01 2.51 2.98
2018-06-01 2.53 2.91
2018-07-01 2.61 2.89
2018-08-01 2.64 2.89
2018-09-01 2.77 3
2018-10-01 2.86 3.15
2018-11-01 2.86 3.12
2018-12-01 2.68 2.83
2019-01-01 2.54 2.71
2019-02-01 2.5 2.68
2019-03-01 2.41 2.57
2019-04-01 2.34 2.53
2019-05-01 2.21 2.4
2019-06-01 1.81 2.07
2019-07-01 1.84 2.06
2019-08-01 1.57 1.63
2019-09-01 1.65 1.7
2019-10-01 1.55 1.71
2019-11-01 1.61 1.81
2019-12-01 1.61 1.86
2020-01-01 1.52 1.76
2020-02-01 1.33 1.5
2020-03-01 0.45 0.87
2020-04-01 0.22 0.66
2020-05-01 0.17 0.67
2020-06-01 0.19 0.73
2020-07-01 0.15 0.62
2020-08-01 0.14 0.65
2020-09-01 0.13 0.68
2020-10-01 0.15 0.79
2020-11-01 0.17 0.87
2020-12-01 0.14 0.93
2021-01-01 0.13 1.08
2021-02-01 0.12 1.26
2021-03-01 0.15 1.61
2021-04-01 0.16 1.64
2021-05-01 0.16 1.62
2021-06-01 0.2 1.52
2021-07-01 0.22 1.32
2021-08-01 0.22 1.28
2021-09-01 0.24 1.37
2021-10-01 0.39 1.58
2021-11-01 0.51 1.56
2021-12-01 0.68 1.47
2022-01-01 0.98 1.76
2022-02-01 1.44 1.93
2022-03-01 1.91 2.13
2022-04-01 2.54 2.75
2022-05-01 2.62 2.9
2022-06-01 3 3.14
2022-07-01 3.04 2.9
2022-08-01 3.25 2.9
2022-09-01 3.86 3.52
2022-10-01 4.38 3.98
2022-11-01 4.5 3.89
2022-12-01 4.29 3.62
2023-01-01 4.21 3.53
2023-02-01 4.53 3.75
2023-03-01 4.3 3.66
2023-04-01 4.02 3.46
2023-05-01 4.13 3.57
2023-06-01 4.64 3.75
2023-07-01 4.83 3.9
2023-08-01 4.9 4.17
2023-09-01 5.02 4.38
2023-10-01 5.07 4.8
2023-11-01 4.88 4.5
2023-12-01 4.46 4.02
2024-01-01 4.32 4.06
2024-02-01 4.54 4.21
2024-03-01 4.59 4.21
2024-04-01 4.87 4.54
2024-05-01 4.86 4.48
2024-06-01 4.74 4.31
2024-07-01 4.5 4.25
2024-08-01 3.97 3.87
2024-09-01 3.62 3.72
2024-10-01 3.97 4.1
2024-11-01 4.26 4.37

Note: Treasury rates are the 2-year and 10-year constant maturity yields based on the most actively traded securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.15, "Selected Interest Rates."

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Figure 1.2. An estimate of the nominal Treasury term premium was near the top of its range since 2010

Percentage points

Date Term Premium
1997-01-01 1.58630953516279
1997-02-01 1.52144999636544
1997-03-01 1.65370500087738
1997-04-01 1.74750909480182
1997-05-01 1.660628591265
1997-06-01 1.58726190953028
1997-07-01 1.43041817708449
1997-08-01 1.45473808901651
1997-09-01 1.44976190158299
1997-10-01 1.35715907812119
1997-11-01 1.23558333847258
1997-12-01 1.17779090187766
1998-01-01 1.06544999480247
1998-02-01 1.09375262887854
1998-03-01 1.15116818384691
1998-04-01 1.15319999626705
1998-05-01 1.15678500533104
1998-06-01 1.08297273245725
1998-07-01 1.06239090724425
1998-08-01 0.99751904748735
1998-09-01 0.786171430633182
1998-10-01 0.792138093993777
1998-11-01 0.869978954917506
1998-12-01 0.794740909879858
1999-01-01 0.880536841718774
1999-02-01 1.01041052529686
1999-03-01 1.14155653248663
1999-04-01 1.12121903896332
1999-05-01 1.2646000008834
1999-06-01 1.43654091791673
1999-07-01 1.40236842632294
1999-08-01 1.45977726307782
1999-09-01 1.45405238582974
1999-10-01 1.54058499336243
1999-11-01 1.40476500988007
1999-12-01 1.48002272844315
2000-01-01 1.6245500087738
2000-02-01 1.53682498931885
2000-03-01 1.39729130268097
2000-04-01 1.25809474367844
2000-05-01 1.43725909970023
2000-06-01 1.27365908839486
2000-07-01 1.18855500817299
2000-08-01 1.06649565696716
2000-09-01 1.06348999142647
2000-10-01 0.980847619828724
2000-11-01 0.940657144501096
2000-12-01 0.776215001940727
2001-01-01 0.873066666580382
2001-02-01 0.931452631950378
2001-03-01 0.92219999703494
2001-04-01 1.14089499115944
2001-05-01 1.32817727327347
2001-06-01 1.32009048688979
2001-07-01 1.28493333430517
2001-08-01 1.19854346565578
2001-09-01 1.20015882744509
2001-10-01 1.22200909527865
2001-11-01 1.33718499541283
2001-12-01 1.65292502045631
2002-01-01 1.62604762258984
2002-02-01 1.55143684462497
2002-03-01 1.73442001342773
2002-04-01 1.69332726977088
2002-05-01 1.6378499973904
2002-06-01 1.49875000715256
2002-07-01 1.34673635526137
2002-08-01 1.12780000946739
2002-09-01 0.905194997787476
2002-10-01 0.942095450379632
2002-11-01 1.07082104996631
2002-12-01 1.07724285125732
2003-01-01 1.07329524131048
2003-02-01 0.991473693596689
2003-03-01 0.930804766359783
2003-04-01 1.00974286737896
2003-05-01 0.782438085192726
2003-06-01 0.66131428593681
2003-07-01 1.01561818339608
2003-08-01 1.31591429596856
2003-09-01 1.20959046341124
2003-10-01 1.20333182269877
2003-11-01 1.22338889042536
2003-12-01 1.21045908602801
2004-01-01 1.13532500267029
2004-02-01 1.09653684967443
2004-03-01 0.94003043744875
2004-04-01 1.24345713570004
2004-05-01 1.45199499130249
2004-06-01 1.40440475940704
2004-07-01 1.24482380776178
2004-08-01 1.10065453702753
2004-09-01 0.966123802321298
2004-10-01 0.922989997267723
2004-11-01 0.915705007314682
2004-12-01 0.899377270178361
2005-01-01 0.872179999947548
2005-02-01 0.806794731240523
2005-03-01 0.956709086894989
2005-04-01 0.853780950818743
2005-05-01 0.734280952385494
2005-06-01 0.637763635678725
2005-07-01 0.67902999818325
2005-08-01 0.684691304745881
2005-09-01 0.63957142829895
2005-10-01 0.73503500521183
2005-11-01 0.75422999560833
2005-12-01 0.704609527474358
2006-01-01 0.612595000863075
2006-02-01 0.66861052889573
2006-03-01 0.726243477800618
2006-04-01 0.82967367925142
2006-05-01 0.866559088230133
2006-06-01 0.844818182966926
2006-07-01 0.798874998092651
2006-08-01 0.689243479915287
2006-09-01 0.634500002861023
2006-10-01 0.623928572450365
2006-11-01 0.544100005002249
2006-12-01 0.539290001988411
2007-01-01 0.633109521298182
2007-02-01 0.610594740039424
2007-03-01 0.526145455512134
2007-04-01 0.60405714455105
2007-05-01 0.654254544865001
2007-06-01 0.877728572913579
2007-07-01 0.792104757967449
2007-08-01 0.727860878343168
2007-09-01 0.695768425339147
2007-10-01 0.7072409120473
2007-11-01 0.627580001950264
2007-12-01 0.652430000901222
2008-01-01 0.502809517440342
2008-02-01 0.659764996170998
2008-03-01 0.676039996743202
2008-04-01 0.791763638908213
2008-05-01 0.862304764134543
2008-06-01 0.953609528995696
2008-07-01 0.9156999994408
2008-08-01 0.829009524413518
2008-09-01 0.803495239643824
2008-10-01 1.02918636527928
2008-11-01 0.997972226805157
2008-12-01 0.495986368168484
2009-01-01 0.533605000376701
2009-02-01 0.695789478327099
2009-03-01 0.644163638353348
2009-04-01 0.653561904316857
2009-05-01 0.852880001068115
2009-06-01 1.13857725533572
2009-07-01 1.02739999511025
2009-08-01 1.05857618933632
2009-09-01 0.952300000758398
2009-10-01 0.930171430110931
2009-11-01 0.919457893622549
2009-12-01 0.981240903789347
2010-01-01 1.06806315873799
2010-02-01 1.02073684805318
2010-03-01 1.02444781686949
2010-04-01 1.08615455302325
2010-05-01 0.867124995589256
2010-06-01 0.755922723900188
2010-07-01 0.614666666303362
2010-08-01 0.422504544258118
2010-09-01 0.393890475942975
2010-10-01 0.298595001548529
2010-11-01 0.397194999456406
2010-12-01 0.731363635171543
2011-01-01 0.780679997801781
2011-02-01 0.906605265642467
2011-03-01 0.824865221977234
2011-04-01 0.865829998254776
2011-05-01 0.691185712814331
2011-06-01 0.559290913018313
2011-07-01 0.562285003066063
2011-08-01 0.18979565280935
2011-09-01 0.0428476195250239
2011-10-01 0.137049999623559
2011-11-01 0.054134999983944
2011-12-01 0.0322904759308412
2012-01-01 0.00909999991999939
2012-02-01 -0.0134849997702986
2012-03-01 0.105518182157539
2012-04-01 0.03772857219294
2012-05-01 -0.0900090905753049
2012-06-01 -0.171185714857919
2012-07-01 -0.227761905108179
2012-08-01 -0.14846521810345
2012-09-01 -0.149436842061971
2012-10-01 -0.138014286756516
2012-11-01 -0.175314998626709
2012-12-01 -0.14552999958396
2013-01-01 -0.0486761906095559
2013-02-01 -0.0109789472251003
2013-03-01 -0.026494999951683
2013-04-01 -0.12271363762292
2013-05-01 -0.0329909090968696
2013-06-01 0.195124999061227
2013-07-01 0.358877270059152
2013-08-01 0.448931818658655
2013-09-01 0.501565003395081
2013-10-01 0.369068183682182
2013-11-01 0.401110528331054
2013-12-01 0.515038101446061
2014-01-01 0.52883810088748
2014-02-01 0.440584209404494
2014-03-01 0.471128573020299
2014-04-01 0.489000005381448
2014-05-01 0.407899998483204
2014-06-01 0.437390476465225
2014-07-01 0.424050000580874
2014-08-01 0.374171427318028
2014-09-01 0.446385717108136
2014-10-01 0.318913634527813
2014-11-01 0.340266666478581
2014-12-01 0.288990912112323
2015-01-01 0.121139999385923
2015-02-01 0.175105261077222
2015-03-01 0.20422727343711
2015-04-01 0.124940909783949
2015-05-01 0.268689998984337
2015-06-01 0.356704546646638
2015-07-01 0.323763636025515
2015-08-01 0.23001904856591
2015-09-01 0.232133332462538
2015-10-01 0.176319047808647
2015-11-01 0.280394736873476
2015-12-01 0.243222724307667
2016-01-01 0.149057893768737
2016-02-01 -0.0309400000085589
2016-03-01 0.0374590908918022
2016-04-01 -0.0104428570983665
2016-05-01 -0.0063523809852389
2016-06-01 -0.0943636361149732
2016-07-01 -0.174139998108149
2016-08-01 -0.144082610049973
2016-09-01 -0.107480952427501
2016-10-01 -0.0476350001408719
2016-11-01 0.141539998538792
2016-12-01 0.342542856931686
2017-01-01 0.30672500282526
2017-02-01 0.29608946803369
2017-03-01 0.286726086036019
2017-04-01 0.159421052979796
2017-05-01 0.14255000075156
2017-06-01 0.0561999998648058
2017-07-01 0.111135000362992
2017-08-01 0.0598086959317974
2017-09-01 0.048810000458252
2017-10-01 0.126352380428995
2017-11-01 0.106809522779215
2017-12-01 0.126464999839664
2018-01-01 0.20057142774264
2018-02-01 0.321000000363902
2018-03-01 0.288261904602959
2018-04-01 0.28833333509309
2018-05-01 0.334427273408933
2018-06-01 0.291300000179382
2018-07-01 0.267171426897957
2018-08-01 0.247139129301776
2018-09-01 0.285684213042259
2018-10-01 0.336277274922891
2018-11-01 0.296625002473593
2018-12-01 0.131231577772843
2019-01-01 0.0547476185574418
2019-02-01 0.03477368454792
2019-03-01 -0.0232285712790188
2019-04-01 -0.0412238094113058
2019-05-01 -0.106136363507672
2019-06-01 -0.248920001089573
2019-07-01 -0.239750002595511
2019-08-01 -0.421831817789511
2019-09-01 -0.37432000041008
2019-10-01 -0.327504544772885
2019-11-01 -0.236826317090737
2019-12-01 -0.207642855388778
2020-01-01 -0.2653523818368
2020-02-01 -0.403673680205094
2020-03-01 -0.472945454445752
2020-04-01 -0.559052382196699
2020-05-01 -0.573474997282028
2020-06-01 -0.566581819545139
2020-07-01 -0.614431822841818
2020-08-01 -0.607804758208139
2020-09-01 -0.597861908731006
2020-10-01 -0.546838099048251
2020-11-01 -0.49895263345618
2020-12-01 -0.478481818329204
2021-01-01 -0.414852630150946
2021-02-01 -0.32094736710975
2021-03-01 -0.109191304477661
2021-04-01 -0.084340909157287
2021-05-01 -0.0983200002461672
2021-06-01 -0.1325318176638
2021-07-01 -0.226966668452535
2021-08-01 -0.243818181482228
2021-09-01 -0.192747619180452
2021-10-01 -0.059549999749288
2021-11-01 -0.0406099995831028
2021-12-01 -0.0761090904812921
2022-01-01 0.0668149997647561
2022-02-01 0.125415790237879
2022-03-01 0.209773913552256
2022-04-01 0.480945000052452
2022-05-01 0.511123813333966
2022-06-01 0.532090478000187
2022-07-01 0.227425000816584
2022-08-01 0.142060869818796
2022-09-01 0.378104763371604
2022-10-01 0.515035004913807
2022-11-01 0.366604999452829
2022-12-01 0.152128572620097
2023-01-01 0.0486500000581145
2023-02-01 0.146194737502619
2023-03-01 0.119052173893737
2023-04-01 -0.0472100000097271
2023-05-01 -0.0506954544054514
2023-06-01 0.0467190474515692
2023-07-01 0.113849999848753
2023-08-01 0.237073913216591
2023-09-01 0.351450002938509
2023-10-01 0.576500001407805
2023-11-01 0.438385716506413
2023-12-01 0.179819999262691
2024-01-01 0.19098095347484
2024-02-01 0.279920000582933
2024-03-01 0.274129997193813
2024-04-01 0.447454543276267
2024-05-01 0.416045453060757
2024-06-01 0.316757893876026
2024-07-01 0.289236362684857
2024-08-01 0.119927272539247
2024-09-01 0.10067500025034
2024-10-01 0.360750002617186
2024-11-01 0.521349996328354

Note: Term premiums are estimated from a 3-factor term structure model using Treasury yields and Blue Chip interest rate forecasts.

Source: Department of the Treasury; Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.3. Interest rate volatility remained well above its median since 2005

Basis points

Date Implied Volatility of 10-Year Swap Rate
2005-04-01 93.1407611818182
2005-05-01 87.2053020454545
2005-06-01 87.5994123636364
2005-07-01 89.342594
2005-08-01 84.2202744347826
2005-09-01 83.8325441363636
2005-10-01 86.0325223333333
2005-11-01 87.1229912727273
2005-12-01 77.7070317272727
2006-01-01 75.8552282272727
2006-02-01 72.57082995
2006-03-01 72.1180623913044
2006-04-01 76.56824595
2006-05-01 74.3080899130435
2006-06-01 70.7608532727273
2006-07-01 69.4930483333333
2006-08-01 62.8133045217391
2006-09-01 62.7310715238095
2006-10-01 64.0431154545455
2006-11-01 67.6373596363636
2006-12-01 66.234062
2007-01-01 66.4426889130435
2007-02-01 66.7878776
2007-03-01 70.8117155454546
2007-04-01 62.8650858095238
2007-05-01 58.1989928695652
2007-06-01 79.0500360952381
2007-07-01 82.6708996818182
2007-08-01 84.3294735217391
2007-09-01 97.0252322
2007-10-01 91.0426627826087
2007-11-01 97.0015865454545
2007-12-01 117.976205190476
2008-01-01 133.406423652174
2008-02-01 150.923306095238
2008-03-01 163.97233552381
2008-04-01 139.643575363636
2008-05-01 126.353198590909
2008-06-01 140.475449761905
2008-07-01 127.802219956522
2008-08-01 111.567181571429
2008-09-01 141.1032905
2008-10-01 188.875971130435
2008-11-01 205.83388575
2008-12-01 232.030661695652
2009-01-01 169.826971590909
2009-02-01 187.7330855
2009-03-01 157.275367409091
2009-04-01 129.736551454545
2009-05-01 153.281603190476
2009-06-01 223.655879409091
2009-07-01 197.755332409091
2009-08-01 180.745684190476
2009-09-01 147.807639681818
2009-10-01 134.645040636364
2009-11-01 112.442800571429
2009-12-01 110.1041495
2010-01-01 109.909501
2010-02-01 100.7843527
2010-03-01 90.5415333043478
2010-04-01 95.7845809090909
2010-05-01 108.376839047619
2010-06-01 108.348928954545
2010-07-01 91.2602745454546
2010-08-01 100.908488681818
2010-09-01 110.990158909091
2010-10-01 102.931406714286
2010-11-01 109.178534727273
2010-12-01 125.347307227273
2011-01-01 113.23575147619
2011-02-01 111.22755815
2011-03-01 110.334852782609
2011-04-01 92.08106005
2011-05-01 89.4274393636364
2011-06-01 94.3602630909091
2011-07-01 101.407765333333
2011-08-01 117.109677521739
2011-09-01 121.005849181818
2011-10-01 124.639285238095
2011-11-01 125.236508363636
2011-12-01 105.109209590909
2012-01-01 86.8961869090909
2012-02-01 87.928798047619
2012-03-01 92.8956355454546
2012-04-01 86.3847064761905
2012-05-01 78.4844144782609
2012-06-01 89.6806648095238
2012-07-01 72.8232575909091
2012-08-01 78.5166424347826
2012-09-01 75.8383667
2012-10-01 75.6908457391304
2012-11-01 67.6227298181818
2012-12-01 61.8341229047619
2013-01-01 67.3589163478261
2013-02-01 68.8840089
2013-03-01 64.7794116190476
2013-04-01 60.4505235
2013-05-01 69.0075274782609
2013-06-01 100.3947363
2013-07-01 104.775979478261
2013-08-01 100.2640195
2013-09-01 101.211893142857
2013-10-01 81.617062173913
2013-11-01 74.5137228571429
2013-12-01 75.8982773636364
2014-01-01 70.363670826087
2014-02-01 69.2855606
2014-03-01 65.5307374285714
2014-04-01 62.8501716666667
2014-05-01 61.4742948181818
2014-06-01 61.9679537142857
2014-07-01 59.6560042608696
2014-08-01 62.2641432380952
2014-09-01 65.4064466363636
2014-10-01 76.7030626956522
2014-11-01 67.40892365
2014-12-01 70.2256455652174
2015-01-01 87.0186313636364
2015-02-01 91.13263945
2015-03-01 84.3177593181818
2015-04-01 77.4148326818182
2015-05-01 86.7601392380952
2015-06-01 88.911496
2015-07-01 82.9971814347826
2015-08-01 80.31959485
2015-09-01 79.7947395
2015-10-01 75.1609395454545
2015-11-01 72.1120120952381
2015-12-01 70.300521826087
2016-01-01 76.2914845238095
2016-02-01 89.1231934761905
2016-03-01 78.9347058181818
2016-04-01 72.0117337619048
2016-05-01 69.0779673636364
2016-06-01 77.249059
2016-07-01 76.8601374285714
2016-08-01 68.1436731739131
2016-09-01 67.2750649090909
2016-10-01 65.2515483809524
2016-11-01 83.5448066818182
2016-12-01 81.1593321363636
2017-01-01 81.1271510909091
2017-02-01 75.6451058
2017-03-01 69.9332405652174
2017-04-01 75.8273615
2017-05-01 62.2952567826087
2017-06-01 58.9056952272727
2017-07-01 59.5746184761905
2017-08-01 57.3938232608696
2017-09-01 58.1155528095238
2017-10-01 59.6366519545455
2017-11-01 52.3190709090909
2017-12-01 50.8717691904762
2018-01-01 55.5877003043478
2018-02-01 72.027128
2018-03-01 63.4433651363636
2018-04-01 58.5823622857143
2018-05-01 58.537723
2018-06-01 57.8168248095238
2018-07-01 53.9075479545455
2018-08-01 52.7038092608696
2018-09-01 51.701349
2018-10-01 58.2089809130435
2018-11-01 57.7368546363636
2018-12-01 59.4768278095238
2019-01-01 56.8872852608696
2019-02-01 50.92862395
2019-03-01 52.1450475238095
2019-04-01 51.7224289090909
2019-05-01 57.229373826087
2019-06-01 68.6766383
2019-07-01 62.13732
2019-08-01 81.9997485454546
2019-09-01 82.103384952381
2019-10-01 78.1486783478261
2019-11-01 66.9196303809524
2019-12-01 64.9177692272727
2020-01-01 63.7826934782609
2020-02-01 76.3504349
2020-03-01 128.198282909091
2020-04-01 79.1194908181818
2020-05-01 62.0802865714286
2020-06-01 68.1176147272727
2020-07-01 56.0211723913044
2020-08-01 54.0961076666667
2020-09-01 49.9714252727273
2020-10-01 68.7694889545455
2020-11-01 57.2393500952381
2020-12-01 58.7475827391304
2021-01-01 58.6661465714286
2021-02-01 68.86160195
2021-03-01 82.8590066956522
2021-04-01 76.9544033181818
2021-05-01 69.6327573333333
2021-06-01 66.3641393636364
2021-07-01 73.0951925454546
2021-08-01 75.2578712727273
2021-09-01 69.091108
2021-10-01 73.5020376666667
2021-11-01 79.6158680454546
2021-12-01 80.1248898695652
2022-01-01 81.8231407142857
2022-02-01 88.68905865
2022-03-01 108.610251478261
2022-04-01 119.366245
2022-05-01 114.930118181818
2022-06-01 119.709321590909
2022-07-01 122.756632952381
2022-08-01 111.678260869565
2022-09-01 127.081818181818
2022-10-01 138.352380952381
2022-11-01 126.554545454545
2022-12-01 125.859090909091
2023-01-01 111.909090909091
2023-02-01 105.985
2023-03-01 120.695652173913
2023-04-01 112.905
2023-05-01 115.917391304348
2023-06-01 106.777272727273
2023-07-01 108.009523809524
2023-08-01 115.373913043478
2023-09-01 112.357142857143
2023-10-01 129.386363636364
2023-11-01 117.290909090909
2023-12-01 112.585714285714
2024-01-01 107.986956521739
2024-02-01 108.147619047619
2024-03-01 101.319047619048
2024-04-01 104.718181818182
2024-05-01 100.313043478261
2024-06-01 102.67
2024-07-01 101.736363636364
2024-08-01 104.177272727273
2024-09-01 99.41
2024-10-01 103.582608695652

Note: The data begin in April 2005. Implied volatility on the 10-year swap rate, 1 month ahead, is derived from swaptions. The median value is 81.62.

Source: For data through July 13, 2022, Barclays and S&P Global; for data from July 14, 2022, onward, ICAP, Swaptions and Interest Rate Caps and Floors Data.

Return to text
Figure 1.4. The price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 firms climbed to the upper end of its historical range

Ratio

Date Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio
1989-01-01 10.0642041004352
1989-02-01 10.1351785277036
1989-03-01 10.1119031811927
1989-04-01 10.4207699680455
1989-05-01 10.722844689108
1989-06-01 10.8504116333394
1989-07-01 11.2392594036221
1989-08-01 11.5544806266731
1989-09-01 11.5054534466439
1989-10-01 11.4766417155518
1989-11-01 11.5116562988962
1989-12-01 11.881290501092
1990-01-01 11.5253411705288
1990-02-01 11.2996436482706
1990-03-01 11.4928153778434
1990-04-01 11.6485959646005
1990-05-01 12.0714446710221
1990-06-01 12.3791615083243
1990-07-01 12.3891135597196
1990-08-01 11.5099674895943
1990-09-01 10.7870645246304
1990-10-01 10.3021545599654
1990-11-01 11.1825864275695
1990-12-01 11.6620618537876
1991-01-01 11.2520631617467
1991-02-01 13.4297373973324
1991-03-01 13.7676511619486
1991-04-01 14.4448937578081
1991-05-01 13.6412911081324
1991-06-01 13.901961055598
1991-07-01 14.1587352437613
1991-08-01 14.3983980388647
1991-09-01 14.2098281900941
1991-10-01 14.3177036674953
1991-11-01 14.4579809594816
1991-12-01 14.0147931972351
1992-01-01 15.3733240239014
1992-02-01 15.0166156856854
1992-03-01 14.8698923112736
1992-04-01 14.8084722682607
1992-05-01 14.7012566468572
1992-06-01 14.0119323477933
1992-07-01 14.4288994144297
1992-08-01 14.4492792036095
1992-09-01 14.4067638714479
1992-10-01 14.0007456665535
1992-11-01 14.5131946779659
1992-12-01 14.7028563487786
1993-01-01 14.608030564822
1993-02-01 14.6587228139057
1993-03-01 15.0088012419457
1993-04-01 15.0293979690151
1993-05-01 14.7210841779365
1993-06-01 14.6368626789991
1993-07-01 14.6337283936858
1993-08-01 14.7630294485469
1993-09-01 14.8018281543635
1993-10-01 14.6403330198253
1993-11-01 14.6645709081992
1993-12-01 14.4751595360612
1994-01-01 14.7450744677096
1994-02-01 14.6015699627999
1994-03-01 14.3344033038633
1994-04-01 13.4596920513799
1994-05-01 13.4202863736397
1994-06-01 13.471214215811
1994-07-01 13.0052681175532
1994-08-01 13.2082163189091
1994-09-01 13.1110084606934
1994-10-01 12.9187629694705
1994-11-01 12.5574041986423
1994-12-01 12.0890353997795
1995-01-01 12.3126596984799
1995-02-01 12.4846693022309
1995-03-01 12.5091571942069
1995-04-01 12.6617743349616
1995-05-01 12.9077616132025
1995-06-01 13.0562719302427
1995-07-01 13.3014044029566
1995-08-01 13.3508028100353
1995-09-01 13.6719030292704
1995-10-01 13.7722621172874
1995-11-01 13.8051714342521
1995-12-01 14.3198703612651
1996-01-01 14.011199080893
1996-02-01 15.2296363731547
1996-03-01 14.8043634897385
1996-04-01 14.7865572863121
1996-05-01 15.1905957553161
1996-06-01 14.7279453444068
1996-07-01 14.4050285357334
1996-08-01 14.9198407030755
1996-09-01 15.2446218954763
1996-10-01 15.6118248760686
1996-11-01 16.0706559432776
1996-12-01 15.845891229295
1997-01-01 16.4576755040212
1997-02-01 17.3592229505404
1997-03-01 16.6477699918784
1997-04-01 16.0273439394106
1997-05-01 17.3853529034164
1997-06-01 18.3931953376202
1997-07-01 19.2280005865275
1997-08-01 18.6788179818782
1997-09-01 18.9184988494003
1997-10-01 19.1994021167331
1997-11-01 18.6019105974642
1997-12-01 18.872913803131
1998-01-01 18.6650034687728
1998-02-01 20.3669601330907
1998-03-01 21.4253650177122
1998-04-01 21.902005795505
1998-05-01 21.6885558348834
1998-06-01 21.4202767974114
1998-07-01 22.7745568636784
1998-08-01 21.1679070066622
1998-09-01 20.0165228950352
1998-10-01 19.2754137196673
1998-11-01 22.0211043312729
1998-12-01 22.3010226324535
1999-01-01 23.7010191646146
1999-02-01 23.5293776819871
1999-03-01 24.7257169346688
1999-04-01 24.950225459147
1999-05-01 24.7376924409425
1999-06-01 24.2960595118963
1999-07-01 25.4371094574449
1999-08-01 23.9049883857649
1999-09-01 23.4638445702431
1999-10-01 22.5467256311648
1999-11-01 24.496820396014
1999-12-01 24.4215149840605
2000-01-01 24.8524227671678
2000-02-01 24.0255964016189
2000-03-01 23.7295689631224
2000-04-01 23.9130934898967
2000-05-01 23.8836044378258
2000-06-01 24.099574077838
2000-07-01 24.0958175369778
2000-08-01 23.8545870339338
2000-09-01 23.8565753873583
2000-10-01 21.4410420929036
2000-11-01 22.2487933361038
2000-12-01 22.100462584884
2001-01-01 21.9800229112923
2001-02-01 22.1012399360932
2001-03-01 19.721458937442
2001-04-01 21.4100847097078
2001-05-01 22.2361350507349
2001-06-01 21.6729288011747
2001-07-01 21.605806811035
2001-08-01 21.165762885018
2001-09-01 18.4180099229759
2001-10-01 20.3743996617534
2001-11-01 21.5016901854138
2001-12-01 21.5724085973653
2002-01-01 21.0024141271754
2002-02-01 20.4701023208602
2002-03-01 20.7531939306996
2002-04-01 20.1717351954154
2002-05-01 19.401356708797
2002-06-01 18.1096469651148
2002-07-01 16.1453891512929
2002-08-01 16.5988314938653
2002-09-01 15.7165209286917
2002-10-01 15.7735120293825
2002-11-01 16.0242385483315
2002-12-01 16.1194851523939
2003-01-01 16.4802211091885
2003-02-01 15.3489012864748
2003-03-01 15.7129121449075
2003-04-01 15.6827957965672
2003-05-01 16.5651253485574
2003-06-01 17.6914104224839
2003-07-01 17.2748052367333
2003-08-01 16.9381474140182
2003-09-01 17.4154180615696
2003-10-01 17.504361110483
2003-11-01 17.1007944533967
2003-12-01 17.4275316428298
2004-01-01 18.0940548927812
2004-02-01 18.0901918269417
2004-03-01 17.3955658412408
2004-04-01 17.1038752791712
2004-05-01 15.9745279072608
2004-06-01 16.4099135676772
2004-07-01 15.9266669456109
2004-08-01 15.5172514336331
2004-09-01 15.7718596877472
2004-10-01 15.4860176468615
2004-11-01 16.167042354314
2004-12-01 16.3193133054799
2005-01-01 15.9499145379806
2005-02-01 16.1652673812335
2005-03-01 15.6438815573727
2005-04-01 15.3028422553076
2005-05-01 15.2783790950127
2005-06-01 15.4154781092884
2005-07-01 15.4085839157477
2005-08-01 15.1390706494143
2005-09-01 14.9554295244387
2005-10-01 14.3366143748808
2005-11-01 14.609424535806
2005-12-01 14.977676766997
2006-01-01 14.9025392357248
2006-02-01 14.9313116713201
2006-03-01 15.0627991160057
2006-04-01 14.9930226269677
2006-05-01 14.2964415023436
2006-06-01 13.6930440542247
2006-07-01 13.9025615497641
2006-08-01 14.1262215702176
2006-09-01 14.2640511297414
2006-10-01 14.6571038069846
2006-11-01 14.8065494165925
2006-12-01 14.8241793147732
2007-01-01 15.0133529613246
2007-02-01 15.3887941880021
2007-03-01 14.5557361091711
2007-04-01 15.3149763934528
2007-05-01 15.50889468843
2007-06-01 15.2981157013587
2007-07-01 15.4087784531208
2007-08-01 13.8714982870456
2007-09-01 15.0079108079347
2007-10-01 15.0157874584611
2007-11-01 14.3230786985459
2007-12-01 14.1983119898006
2008-01-01 13.4931904988488
2008-02-01 13.6780107884848
2008-03-01 13.089851517804
2008-04-01 13.8050210994449
2008-05-01 14.3033074392758
2008-06-01 13.5073066306772
2008-07-01 12.5961196145419
2008-08-01 13.2888387241068
2008-09-01 12.0103601753125
2008-10-01 9.93258895896093
2008-11-01 9.73578287642566
2008-12-01 11.8748628792291
2009-01-01 11.4796037444954
2009-02-01 12.4565440921833
2009-03-01 12.4215664077408
2009-04-01 13.5093361171667
2009-05-01 14.6552337770762
2009-06-01 14.7260886085977
2009-07-01 14.7963737699803
2009-08-01 15.204543828697
2009-09-01 15.9087851944854
2009-10-01 15.8514637104245
2009-11-01 15.1211016216084
2009-12-01 14.8884099872874
2010-01-01 14.8020679742873
2010-02-01 13.809906888489
2010-03-01 14.4375907370048
2010-04-01 14.8238372089292
2010-05-01 12.9866274401862
2010-06-01 12.8167930202566
2010-07-01 12.4946295481757
2010-08-01 12.1001413987458
2010-09-01 12.3535014571902
2010-10-01 12.8360078261204
2010-11-01 12.5666816077549
2010-12-01 13.0311422579266
2011-01-01 13.2128103719881
2011-02-01 13.7042654123986
2011-03-01 12.6064498729768
2011-04-01 12.9692509122027
2011-05-01 12.8947060964363
2011-06-01 12.0662182325341
2011-07-01 12.6372444598308
2011-08-01 11.2823048312434
2011-09-01 11.2422285054152
2011-10-01 11.4983722251516
2011-11-01 11.6733457386322
2011-12-01 11.4038696246564
2012-01-01 12.3276263968322
2012-02-01 12.634100278107
2012-03-01 12.9628953686652
2012-04-01 12.6561781436844
2012-05-01 12.0118564280989
2012-06-01 11.8910539241284
2012-07-01 12.5921452518475
2012-08-01 12.9169469984042
2012-09-01 13.3359912810347
2012-10-01 13.2071677470199
2012-11-01 12.1877432249757
2012-12-01 12.8569428032781
2013-01-01 13.1206067186958
2013-02-01 13.53107029628
2013-03-01 13.7166002606247
2013-04-01 13.5902450052097
2013-05-01 14.4774180341694
2013-06-01 14.1015405361698
2013-07-01 14.5079158662451
2013-08-01 14.5798431260746
2013-09-01 14.8363457265788
2013-10-01 14.7112792534505
2013-11-01 15.0308993003939
2013-12-01 15.1982274895268
2014-01-01 15.4241353195946
2014-02-01 15.4338901696806
2014-03-01 15.6026894264707
2014-04-01 15.4569957979617
2014-05-01 15.450021160254
2014-06-01 15.8286012227448
2014-07-01 15.9653905681135
2014-08-01 15.5461920904507
2014-09-01 15.8910872969454
2014-10-01 14.7594123936441
2014-11-01 16.1895116740295
2014-12-01 16.1127377683543
2015-01-01 16.2280108785573
2015-02-01 17.3506910072303
2015-03-01 17.2723369155734
2015-04-01 17.2862022046625
2015-05-01 17.0887959109692
2015-06-01 16.9584296239927
2015-07-01 16.9766067171287
2015-08-01 16.7530153187319
2015-09-01 16.0927690513397
2015-10-01 16.1398185526894
2015-11-01 16.797565602619
2015-12-01 16.688242167079
2016-01-01 15.297561527227
2016-02-01 15.9098970918528
2016-03-01 16.7099001506657
2016-04-01 17.0917826575144
2016-05-01 16.6750029578183
2016-06-01 16.746595762593
2016-07-01 17.399487388778
2016-08-01 17.5191957147702
2016-09-01 16.9188091880257
2016-10-01 16.8911502822295
2016-11-01 16.9462032825983
2016-12-01 17.3268195294828
2017-01-01 17.2743532746384
2017-02-01 17.910521189733
2017-03-01 18.0368428186771
2017-04-01 17.5412278977718
2017-05-01 17.4939792373801
2017-06-01 17.908850198951
2017-07-01 18.2279723742838
2017-08-01 18.094305483594
2017-09-01 18.1816586873495
2017-10-01 18.4438000525072
2017-11-01 18.1446860579846
2017-12-01 18.6367249911182
2018-01-01 18.7257471039163
2018-02-01 17.2793200896416
2018-03-01 17.3750599066372
2018-04-01 16.9215080121132
2018-05-01 16.6822489136664
2018-06-01 16.8404093631699
2018-07-01 17.0288056396971
2018-08-01 16.820292593557
2018-09-01 17.2101274716188
2018-10-01 16.4975486794932
2018-11-01 15.7190251116925
2018-12-01 14.6491434505918
2019-01-01 15.453987112851
2019-02-01 16.3434382823182
2019-03-01 16.6024891036271
2019-04-01 17.0790981447323
2019-05-01 16.6615853205105
2019-06-01 17.0282131808412
2019-07-01 17.4491267880427
2019-08-01 16.5418010009122
2019-09-01 17.4022570112139
2019-10-01 17.3125713999216
2019-11-01 17.8324074031914
2019-12-01 18.251779172469
2020-01-01 18.7321230991226
2020-02-01 19.2701173930204
2020-03-01 14.1265297511953
2020-04-01 18.9302848705977
2020-05-01 20.5199301268833
2020-06-01 22.3997878833987
2020-07-01 23.0959880047071
2020-08-01 23.0984720912465
2020-09-01 22.6383910683772
2020-10-01 22.8095955810329
2020-11-01 22.2429600971014
2020-12-01 22.5584097515819
2021-01-01 23.0476342530565
2021-02-01 22.7584254360357
2021-03-01 22.4540145352506
2021-04-01 22.6450660685517
2021-05-01 21.3312059524821
2021-06-01 21.5964024989497
2021-07-01 22.17897131682
2021-08-01 21.436069287737
2021-09-01 21.6313800043794
2021-10-01 20.8059327400153
2021-11-01 21.8403915661905
2021-12-01 21.6017049477432
2022-01-01 20.5506905116989
2022-02-01 19.9591518684362
2022-03-01 19.129169161413
2022-04-01 19.3249707006143
2022-05-01 16.8658892370711
2022-06-01 16.1627531814585
2022-07-01 16.3361004737986
2022-08-01 18.6076407677897
2022-09-01 17.1123042940218
2022-10-01 16.1641238244699
2022-11-01 17.5809439033415
2022-12-01 17.6435269890002
2023-01-01 17.492523420901
2023-02-01 18.6614558253707
2023-03-01 17.4153928027466
2023-04-01 18.5735549263109
2023-05-01 18.4150973867556
2023-06-01 19.192956588322
2023-07-01 20.161044150541
2023-08-01 19.1069107446783
2023-09-01 19.1319137611276
2023-10-01 18.3082886169927
2023-11-01 18.882714690342
2023-12-01 19.474566187328
2024-01-01 19.5766388041294
2024-02-01 20.4709259293719
2024-03-01 20.8097667554428
2024-04-01 20.0991445905181
2024-05-01 20.9228383497495
2024-06-01 21.3493645581997
2024-07-01 21.7645999426122
2024-08-01 21.0954338046636
2024-09-01 21.5206520991111
2024-10-01 22.179044653475
2024-11-01 22.4310988068636

Note: The figure shows the aggregate forward price-to-earnings ratio of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 firms, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. The median value is 15.72 ratio.

Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics/financial-data/company-data/ibes-estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.5. An estimate of the equity premium remained well below its long-run median

Percentage points

Date Spread
1991-10-01 3.31273360602933
1991-11-01 3.29699322373821
1991-12-01 3.80530647491709
1992-01-01 2.88087560859424
1992-02-01 2.79500613189168
1992-03-01 2.73271320411514
1992-04-01 3.00402419565771
1992-05-01 3.1427349908378
1992-06-01 3.59381579580855
1992-07-01 3.57441077942668
1992-08-01 3.78322211639405
1992-09-01 3.92844126543843
1992-10-01 3.83837994024281
1992-11-01 3.38410059432048
1992-12-01 3.38594812094295
1993-01-01 3.48979985098156
1993-02-01 3.80604430773826
1993-03-01 3.87431488433222
1993-04-01 4.09323900090521
1993-05-01 4.22507816087965
1993-06-01 4.40837861006495
1993-07-01 4.33092110482072
1993-08-01 4.35459239050371
1993-09-01 4.64893768153862
1993-10-01 4.76786197487311
1993-11-01 4.38570124549905
1993-12-01 4.44619951245064
1994-01-01 4.35771664620068
1994-02-01 4.18053157149611
1994-03-01 3.79520399479644
1994-04-01 3.82661108131632
1994-05-01 3.6764580862889
1994-06-01 3.73637364017627
1994-07-01 3.79914900236774
1994-08-01 3.75038626706865
1994-09-01 3.58191503577891
1994-10-01 3.43766115105621
1994-11-01 3.46549945388495
1994-12-01 3.88647761941905
1995-01-01 3.5420420689
1995-02-01 3.7607236949
1995-03-01 3.98380191687977
1995-04-01 4.09008593725384
1995-05-01 4.3815064880795
1995-06-01 4.72173296493636
1995-07-01 4.32248373797545
1995-08-01 4.08474387329548
1995-09-01 4.1805116785478
1995-10-01 4.11660466303124
1995-11-01 4.21786811235324
1995-12-01 4.1582248761457
1996-01-01 4.36917718179476
1996-02-01 3.64650168723885
1996-03-01 3.34519879451229
1996-04-01 3.09553511916768
1996-05-01 2.74435208651186
1996-06-01 2.80571915039495
1996-07-01 3.03367549670268
1996-08-01 3.03045505118195
1996-09-01 2.6548847813005
1996-10-01 2.80366510454796
1996-11-01 2.94408534484958
1996-12-01 2.95249485862662
1997-01-01 2.4561136573599
1997-02-01 2.28068148909389
1997-03-01 2.2210233775253
1997-04-01 2.11242439348368
1997-05-01 1.81476303177943
1997-06-01 1.69470091839229
1997-07-01 1.87930506209582
1997-08-01 1.93189480918009
1997-09-01 1.93815908459938
1997-10-01 1.68115896327905
1997-11-01 2.02955669837511
1997-12-01 2.04433911512786
1998-01-01 2.2939857062839
1998-02-01 1.77877660623
1998-03-01 1.46024394202118
1998-04-01 1.26821891956067
1998-05-01 1.28896421831285
1998-06-01 1.50267497322118
1998-07-01 1.27850393110859
1998-08-01 1.75729607637876
1998-09-01 2.48073621404038
1998-10-01 2.8591132910259
1998-11-01 1.96121045955216
1998-12-01 2.04259786059159
1999-01-01 1.44202973797905
1999-02-01 1.20167970179689
1999-03-01 0.757358625876652
1999-04-01 1.00753148545467
1999-05-01 0.71484417176079
1999-06-01 0.430593499975135
1999-07-01 0.329290149112053
1999-08-01 0.396726140847228
1999-09-01 0.456581697869048
1999-10-01 0.426768897112698
1999-11-01 0.243958454860101
1999-12-01 0.0263911942567292
2000-01-01 -0.3036558778661
2000-02-01 -0.0428958966237989
2000-03-01 0.210413966957346
2000-04-01 0.41997841973579
2000-05-01 0.0155027883449552
2000-06-01 0.319044716447865
2000-07-01 0.412853120294249
2000-08-01 0.634474828422303
2000-09-01 0.631782924665751
2000-10-01 1.2119359687059
2000-11-01 1.10180791880762
2000-12-01 1.56967702079645
2001-01-01 1.66629122724638
2001-02-01 1.67367357675751
2001-03-01 2.39240121505568
2001-04-01 1.7758190816528
2001-05-01 1.3994208396465
2001-06-01 1.606930796475
2001-07-01 1.68449875082391
2001-08-01 1.98411835263557
2001-09-01 2.8810682443
2001-10-01 2.6013200752
2001-11-01 2.2600921763
2001-12-01 1.7822159886
2002-01-01 1.93730502274762
2002-02-01 2.14823132633684
2002-03-01 1.7190454184
2002-04-01 1.96830445197273
2002-05-01 2.25508780970909
2002-06-01 2.8631687979
2002-07-01 3.79220514383637
2002-08-01 3.98949773592727
2002-09-01 4.6986263229
2002-10-01 4.53732402738182
2002-11-01 4.36543034932632
2002-12-01 4.34439589052381
2003-01-01 4.26732261054286
2003-02-01 4.87723484261579
2003-03-01 4.82626884157619
2003-04-01 4.71276170344762
2003-05-01 4.79326942569048
2003-06-01 4.64599391233333
2003-07-01 4.1532272759
2003-08-01 3.76097623134286
2003-09-01 3.79622891859048
2003-10-01 3.76705294209091
2003-11-01 3.89581487073333
2003-12-01 3.82640179445454
2004-01-01 3.7465471651
2004-02-01 3.80879946336316
2004-03-01 4.28678704107391
2004-04-01 3.85003298900476
2004-05-01 3.884605902
2004-06-01 3.70992969405238
2004-07-01 4.13802524034762
2004-08-01 4.51092208698182
2004-09-01 4.5765063934
2004-10-01 4.7201680761
2004-11-01 4.3635632709
2004-12-01 4.28604517883637
2005-01-01 4.4044710699
2005-02-01 4.38977612481053
2005-03-01 4.25536181223636
2005-04-01 4.61211948018571
2005-05-01 4.82324455244762
2005-06-01 4.91620478651818
2005-07-01 4.744404048
2005-08-01 4.76997310718696
2005-09-01 4.9057728976381
2005-10-01 4.9183725059
2005-11-01 4.6848515772
2005-12-01 4.6050409860381
2006-01-01 4.7076858425
2006-02-01 4.53818261942105
2006-03-01 4.31555492119565
2006-04-01 4.09651126976316
2006-05-01 4.30825669880909
2006-06-01 4.62140531062727
2006-07-01 4.5432590633
2006-08-01 4.63588597661304
2006-09-01 4.7125660676
2006-10-01 4.52323502480476
2006-11-01 4.59242992906191
2006-12-01 4.611775995
2007-01-01 4.18106586692857
2007-02-01 4.04919809289474
2007-03-01 4.57083924184546
2007-04-01 4.1551562612
2007-05-01 4.03229912653636
2007-06-01 3.76213847208571
2007-07-01 3.80658806488095
2007-08-01 4.81131354692174
2007-09-01 4.43418418424737
2007-10-01 4.42738012297273
2007-11-01 5.081829199
2007-12-01 5.1698357612
2008-01-01 5.99132183527619
2008-02-01 5.8645296151
2008-03-01 6.4061410604
2008-04-01 5.85849120096573
2008-05-01 5.40156612062908
2008-06-01 5.59620994183047
2008-07-01 6.25106646130653
2008-08-01 5.96309295458711
2008-09-01 6.93164499009366
2008-10-01 8.31053671269268
2008-11-01 8.73795985522563
2008-12-01 7.98664985916921
2009-01-01 8.05066207122808
2009-02-01 7.04060355804376
2009-03-01 7.20467809519335
2009-04-01 6.64819301313963
2009-05-01 5.70182583822508
2009-06-01 5.23593311534012
2009-07-01 5.38605358131467
2009-08-01 5.1964003010808
2009-09-01 5.10587315671545
2009-10-01 4.9372085361199
2009-11-01 5.2361800564491
2009-12-01 5.19825214838101
2010-01-01 5.25150225601086
2010-02-01 5.78182579021631
2010-03-01 5.46114600087852
2010-04-01 5.20945987563204
2010-05-01 6.54462360320297
2010-06-01 6.84804562544505
2010-07-01 7.15991000286431
2010-08-01 7.77098893189029
2010-09-01 7.63622808865532
2010-10-01 7.35462418804428
2010-11-01 7.32850519906603
2010-12-01 6.48289710360822
2011-01-01 6.39829256126077
2011-02-01 5.95850873690971
2011-03-01 6.74391259738824
2011-04-01 6.57687056596917
2011-05-01 6.91099197532141
2011-06-01 7.61460535341775
2011-07-01 7.23252747813923
2011-08-01 8.8958589226292
2011-09-01 9.25280023158387
2011-10-01 8.9786331733627
2011-11-01 9.01162430928091
2011-12-01 9.25630567264572
2012-01-01 8.41979668324733
2012-02-01 8.23234177526021
2012-03-01 7.81344868534052
2012-04-01 8.31444135624018
2012-05-01 9.00768056025453
2012-06-01 9.27442158905411
2012-07-01 8.77458714292172
2012-08-01 8.40138485703512
2012-09-01 8.1352946761344
2012-10-01 8.14277466828375
2012-11-01 8.86926946079727
2012-12-01 8.37705879760165
2013-01-01 8.01776066691252
2013-02-01 7.7088405027598
2013-03-01 7.63494126711444
2013-04-01 7.92054633735572
2013-05-01 7.28374082969307
2013-06-01 7.06443380308767
2013-07-01 6.48584336028104
2013-08-01 6.27895707792149
2013-09-01 6.10438921198176
2013-10-01 6.44606901646323
2013-11-01 6.19169343545419
2013-12-01 5.93080988151541
2014-01-01 5.88752655827488
2014-02-01 6.02881102392136
2014-03-01 5.95025147148786
2014-04-01 5.97829581627208
2014-05-01 6.13966400294832
2014-06-01 5.93629669487505
2014-07-01 5.89188044648481
2014-08-01 6.17512432192176
2014-09-01 5.9187784835901
2014-10-01 6.62748751670448
2014-11-01 6.00247743057366
2014-12-01 6.16314719587464
2015-01-01 6.33925467638748
2015-02-01 5.82576448006909
2015-03-01 5.79419997260289
2015-04-01 5.93134703372074
2015-05-01 5.72122234664613
2015-06-01 5.60488151631566
2015-07-01 5.68084956226695
2015-08-01 5.91620803890709
2015-09-01 6.14822337036009
2015-10-01 6.23915650763793
2015-11-01 5.77863834063824
2015-12-01 5.83967015617105
2016-01-01 6.5185106348464
2016-02-01 6.56633576887415
2016-03-01 6.15587622583602
2016-04-01 6.21064572466073
2016-05-01 6.34799090461512
2016-06-01 6.49489013841596
2016-07-01 6.37307075197276
2016-08-01 6.27260719336429
2016-09-01 6.39647193997359
2016-10-01 6.34811991784142
2016-11-01 5.92862681352045
2016-12-01 5.43346629841085
2017-01-01 5.6136336652665
2017-02-01 5.41902623640846
2017-03-01 5.32069883837305
2017-04-01 5.66899730225205
2017-05-01 5.67335691141075
2017-06-01 5.67353137269448
2017-07-01 5.39402370439457
2017-08-01 5.54224844092142
2017-09-01 5.53037823788696
2017-10-01 5.25438572005882
2017-11-01 5.34343164897217
2017-12-01 5.14425960430061
2018-01-01 4.99733612032924
2018-02-01 5.15501211616546
2018-03-01 5.15168538576192
2018-04-01 5.34325307242825
2018-05-01 5.30723200040116
2018-06-01 5.31210745186694
2018-07-01 5.172226267882
2018-08-01 5.25020412163996
2018-09-01 5.00393746356363
2018-10-01 5.11395202615841
2018-11-01 5.44670769246154
2018-12-01 6.20382190640554
2019-01-01 5.96531249806428
2019-02-01 5.64504246661343
2019-03-01 5.64790276758041
2019-04-01 5.51531964861167
2019-05-01 5.7922389479743
2019-06-01 5.98603177408227
2019-07-01 5.87024581298618
2019-08-01 6.60875459159441
2019-09-01 6.23064605442807
2019-10-01 6.26249491266094
2019-11-01 5.97665726428493
2019-12-01 5.78977506155025
2020-01-01 5.76302317417919
2020-02-01 5.87220303294315
2020-03-01 8.33888390595579
2020-04-01 6.69399783060881
2020-05-01 6.29891094420407
2020-06-01 5.84820072278432
2020-07-01 5.73121996157897
2020-08-01 5.71112877430923
2020-09-01 5.77397028897924
2020-10-01 5.72094362158723
2020-11-01 5.74861502191579
2020-12-01 5.62535022636364
2021-01-01 5.46219800743684
2021-02-01 5.32170340708947
2021-03-01 4.98232050904348
2021-04-01 5.02736843944545
2021-05-01 5.3110774887
2021-06-01 5.35596900921818
2021-07-01 5.59186110208571
2021-08-01 5.78881164342727
2021-09-01 5.6603516578381
2021-10-01 5.7386714108
2021-11-01 5.5244574884
2021-12-01 5.65467786536364
2022-01-01 5.528351543
2022-02-01 5.50562766954211
2022-03-01 5.5427185733
2022-04-01 5.1634870887
2022-05-01 5.75104609181905
2022-06-01 5.74746948270476
2022-07-01 5.9317819098
2022-08-01 5.21484077102609
2022-09-01 5.03562930338095
2022-10-01 5.0390050863
2022-11-01 4.6383517406
2022-12-01 4.95567719547619
2023-01-01 4.5214180897
2023-02-01 3.93132294352632
2023-03-01 4.3612815531087
2023-04-01 4.2164089381
2023-05-01 4.1428269703
2023-06-01 3.75195896791429
2023-07-01 3.398565563
2023-08-01 3.40958235164348
2023-09-01 3.1652486368
2023-10-01 2.94553077762381
2023-11-01 3.08597726902857
2023-12-01 3.4351125718
2024-01-01 3.23239585066667
2024-02-01 2.852341886
2024-03-01 2.7936958886
2024-04-01 2.73860429871818
2024-05-01 2.59798444391818
2024-06-01 2.68451700120526
2024-07-01 2.61414423162727
2024-08-01 3.14710325129091
2024-09-01 3.2126093444
2024-10-01 2.61373320647273
2024-11-01 2.26737818078182

Note: The data begin in October 1991. The figure shows the difference between the aggregate forward earnings-to-price ratio of S&P 500 firms and the expected real Treasury yields, based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Expected real Treasury yields are calculated from the 10-year consumer price index inflation forecast, and the smoothed nominal yield curve is estimated from off-the-run securities. The median value is 4.68 percentage points.

Source: Refinitiv, Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, North American Summary & Detail Estimates, Level 2, Current & History Data, Adjusted and Unadjusted, https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics/financial-data/company-data/ibes-estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.6. Volatility in equity markets remained near its historical median

Percent

Date Option-implied volatility Realized volatility
1996-01-01 13.4736363636364 11.6665841780386
1996-02-01 15.033 11.4975916846132
1996-03-01 17.762380952381 14.581318576953
1996-04-01 16.2122222222222 12.2593301449459
1996-05-01 16.1463636363636 11.3235667913326
1996-06-01 16.5035294117647 11.1206257549625
1996-07-01 17.9786363636364 15.048544402697
1996-08-01 15.7604545454545 13.4446126082281
1996-09-01 16.578 11.1917018477932
1996-10-01 16.2863636363636 9.86948628027995
1996-11-01 15.997 10.2716062935589
1996-12-01 19.2609523809524 13.4374570390196
1997-01-01 19.6166666666667 14.6088185506325
1997-02-01 20.1394736842105 14.8386176034424
1997-03-01 20.17 14.6453557372766
1997-04-01 19.6955 17.1846624673166
1997-05-01 19.9247619047619 16.3836231441223
1997-06-01 20.1942857142857 15.0111123475749
1997-07-01 20.5085714285714 16.1782848530189
1997-08-01 23.0847619047619 18.1346380265825
1997-09-01 23.7994736842105 18.7880101404456
1997-10-01 23.8708695652174 18.8372189161157
1997-11-01 31.9842105263158 24.0351455400752
1997-12-01 26.2763636363636 18.5422717112303
1998-01-01 23.8665 17.9252972040999
1998-02-01 19.9989473684211 15.3823533720686
1998-03-01 20.032380952381 12.6872566172516
1998-04-01 22.1621052631579 13.0210902272065
1998-05-01 20.874 13.9596893299767
1998-06-01 21.6627272727273 15.6131769003321
1998-07-01 20.2326315789474 14.6313592569237
1998-08-01 31.5880952380952 22.8305226597616
1998-09-01 38.132 34.2713817466607
1998-10-01 36.6081818181818 33.073610964013
1998-11-01 26.223 23.1781979267459
1998-12-01 25.4790909090909 18.970544597332
1999-01-01 27.9688888888889 19.5367169213526
1999-02-01 28.8226315789474 21.7532920069838
1999-03-01 25.3095652173913 20.6759338656216
1999-04-01 23.4785714285714 19.8810067260867
1999-05-01 26.2045 20.978887537993
1999-06-01 23.5457142857143 19.2822180946872
1999-07-01 21.0490476190476 16.5658079089748
1999-08-01 24.3236363636364 17.7635657468008
1999-09-01 24.5414285714286 18.9891967546875
1999-10-01 24.0214285714286 20.9318269148464
1999-11-01 21.8180952380952 19.2766757727433
1999-12-01 22.1590909090909 16.9123327694082
2000-01-01 23.202 19.2719945810177
2000-02-01 23.5955 21.8837233249704
2000-03-01 22.7340909090909 24.4159303291789
2000-04-01 27.1642105263158 32.6971223844865
2000-05-01 26.3731818181818 28.6889344349713
2000-06-01 21.54 22.9163846421047
2000-07-01 19.893 17.9991036325549
2000-08-01 18.0886956521739 16.2286241687161
2000-09-01 19.6875 15.2256666810743
2000-10-01 25.2 23.3837185477452
2000-11-01 26.3828571428572 24.8384656514943
2000-12-01 26.5305 25.2673601298486
2001-01-01 24.9185714285714 27.3882989134049
2001-02-01 23.4115789473684 21.572179485435
2001-03-01 28.5355 26.8380278352873
2001-04-01 28.134 28.278209829929
2001-05-01 22.9440909090909 21.9316393685821
2001-06-01 20.9404761904762 18.087337334525
2001-07-01 22.3161904761905 17.4242660800922
2001-08-01 21.8617391304348 16.9889677510858
2001-09-01 35.0653333333333 25.3641575126493
2001-10-01 32.6122727272727 27.4445755321795
2001-11-01 26.6309523809524 23.7049049669314
2001-12-01 23.72 18.8125609026884
2002-01-01 22.2528571428571 16.0868875025853
2002-02-01 22.8757894736842 19.0256886755931
2002-03-01 18.985 18.1636878815601
2002-04-01 19.9004545454546 16.3593537332721
2002-05-01 20.0877272727273 17.4760678482854
2002-06-01 25.271 21.1513946013902
2002-07-01 34.0495454545455 33.8139203931594
2002-08-01 33.7427272727273 38.0078273095728
2002-09-01 37.6475 31.1589311679135
2002-10-01 35.4295454545455 35.1170813541095
2002-11-01 28.175 29.8389554385516
2002-12-01 28.2104761904762 23.986799315067
2003-01-01 27.5063157894737 21.4689303840064
2003-02-01 32.2184210526316 23.265978683796
2003-03-01 30.6342857142857 24.0286367202136
2003-04-01 23.9919047619048 22.752984717474
2003-05-01 20.2395238095238 19.412627330419
2003-06-01 20.362380952381 17.8919742302747
2003-07-01 19.1613636363636 17.9639943998314
2003-08-01 19.2742857142857 17.4534380108849
2003-09-01 19.532380952381 14.6390259793862
2003-10-01 18.0234782608696 14.4094643343742
2003-11-01 17.401052631579 13.1586629658084
2003-12-01 16.8263636363636 11.9103661952143
2004-01-01 15.9533333333333 11.1409651567195
2004-02-01 15.9984210526316 12.4257014860329
2004-03-01 17.6873913043478 13.1184360953542
2004-04-01 15.6985714285714 13.231167319615
2004-05-01 17.705 15.3060262363503
2004-06-01 15.3571428571429 12.4775953751771
2004-07-01 15.502380952381 11.5666471545408
2004-08-01 16.6840909090909 12.5189917130377
2004-09-01 14.0809523809524 10.5223751396196
2004-10-01 14.97 10.5489017438967
2004-11-01 13.5771428571429 11.2205005590362
2004-12-01 12.4595454545455 10.541646674225
2005-01-01 13.438 10.6904070740009
2005-02-01 11.7089473684211 9.97748237191248
2005-03-01 13.1263636363636 10.459698064052
2005-04-01 14.4590476190476 11.960123671722
2005-05-01 13.967619047619 13.1351896277787
2005-06-01 11.8686363636364 10.8849020066838
2005-07-01 11.049 10.300120465322
2005-08-01 12.9513043478261 9.67263982657435
2005-09-01 12.6280952380952 10.3360965118825
2005-10-01 14.937619047619 12.9427006564598
2005-11-01 12.147619047619 11.9935095876405
2005-12-01 11.26 9.86773515145786
2006-01-01 12.036 9.75067994089502
2006-02-01 12.4710526315789 10.3967861668473
2006-03-01 11.6939130434783 9.67644288504616
2006-04-01 11.8473684210526 10.1817681289257
2006-05-01 14.4545454545455 11.8839870352574
2006-06-01 16.9186363636364 15.191332758871
2006-07-01 15.326 13.8220201519233
2006-08-01 13.3517391304348 12.2665636023172
2006-09-01 12.1845 9.58343146659183
2006-10-01 11.3063636363636 8.87573098167969
2006-11-01 10.817619047619 9.05376221180911
2006-12-01 10.9645 9.48171541644617
2007-01-01 11.0425 9.45503780186052
2007-02-01 11.1552631578947 9.0961583545752
2007-03-01 15.1627272727273 14.3401666948091
2007-04-01 12.933 11.4139757643595
2007-05-01 13.2977272727273 9.91948684441229
2007-06-01 14.947619047619 11.4193881154748
2007-07-01 17.2733333333333 13.5259953706479
2007-08-01 25.0260869565217 23.4481111162289
2007-09-01 22.1989473684211 19.75501400631
2007-10-01 19.115652173913 15.5047477914443
2007-11-01 25.582380952381 21.5249704805191
2007-12-01 21.651 21.0084670555683
2008-01-01 25.8161904761905 25.1599790534408
2008-02-01 25.456 27.9656062442721
2008-03-01 27.1035 26.7472278677526
2008-04-01 21.5627272727273 21.3908423618768
2008-05-01 18.3033333333333 16.820022874967
2008-06-01 22.1104761904762 17.4005103986656
2008-07-01 24.3213636363636 23.0739205267132
2008-08-01 20.6957142857143 20.3870764151769
2008-09-01 30.2385714285714 30.1334975080776
2008-10-01 61.1773913043478 66.4386784016626
2008-11-01 62.6689473684211 72.3927352222546
2008-12-01 52.405 61.6657933416266
2009-01-01 44.683 43.452752594679
2009-02-01 45.5705263157895 40.5192431898555
2009-03-01 44.7954545454545 42.7592047462457
2009-04-01 38.0638095238095 35.2343602119486
2009-05-01 31.978 29.4176868319234
2009-06-01 29.1404545454546 25.1087507808754
2009-07-01 26.1627272727273 21.5417244117071
2009-08-01 25.3371428571429 19.3433607210327
2009-09-01 24.9266666666667 17.503681968538
2009-10-01 24.2522727272727 17.5882256074409
2009-11-01 23.789 19.5045092479418
2009-12-01 21.2395454545455 15.2820238837211
2010-01-01 20.6431578947368 12.8530416126524
2010-02-01 22.54 17.9380509833569
2010-03-01 17.7673913043478 14.1447660793234
2010-04-01 17.4242857142857 12.4995542984872
2010-05-01 31.9295 27.6242115377231
2010-06-01 29.9163636363636 27.0109725030633
2010-07-01 25.5652380952381 23.0434639457214
2010-08-01 24.7459090909091 18.9114833431002
2010-09-01 22.517619047619 16.8528590240347
2010-10-01 20.3733333333333 14.9042342091468
2010-11-01 20.0957142857143 13.9522965645998
2010-12-01 17.5695454545455 11.853768960947
2011-01-01 17.3155 9.74666266195686
2011-02-01 17.43 10.6389833450448
2011-03-01 20.7234782608696 14.3175303167676
2011-04-01 16.244 12.4239323178367
2011-05-01 16.9114285714286 12.3719629369613
2011-06-01 19.1531818181818 13.5718818726976
2011-07-01 19.2275 13.7911850170891
2011-08-01 35.0291304347826 31.7501510649605
2011-09-01 36.53 30.9760512866701
2011-10-01 32.8290476190476 30.1879558391516
2011-11-01 31.9419047619048 25.0385454725816
2011-12-01 25.047619047619 20.6379037660187
2012-01-01 20.228 15.4853455533766
2012-02-01 18.4205 12.4218669978402
2012-03-01 16.1672727272727 10.9118644294564
2012-04-01 17.823 11.5078952301996
2012-05-01 21.0018181818182 13.7341733055884
2012-06-01 21.1309523809524 15.5821346244096
2012-07-01 17.5652380952381 14.8151104106496
2012-08-01 15.6895652173913 13.1461000621976
2012-09-01 15.2847368421053 10.9872249276604
2012-10-01 16.2761904761905 11.2785507812281
2012-11-01 16.7019047619048 13.82398496189
2012-12-01 17.307 12.8921479100806
2013-01-01 13.5052380952381 11.7584767911087
2013-02-01 14.0726315789474 9.65224569084235
2013-03-01 13.0315 10.1419710750323
2013-04-01 13.9672727272727 11.4598188363153
2013-05-01 13.4936363636364 11.6197211003823
2013-06-01 17.2715 14.514095226563
2013-07-01 13.9745454545455 13.4953132839186
2013-08-01 14.21 10.4083791757994
2013-09-01 14.692 10.7021373709717
2013-10-01 15.4078260869565 11.2182710735192
2013-11-01 12.924 9.89695804033696
2013-12-01 14.192380952381 9.50653585963689
2014-01-01 14.2409523809524 9.34222607887063
2014-02-01 15.47 11.7781905014787
2014-03-01 14.8366666666667 11.6475961685534
2014-04-01 14.1980952380952 12.2114937006839
2014-05-01 12.4752380952381 10.9913042197394
2014-06-01 11.5414285714286 8.26170849456355
2014-07-01 12.2963636363636 7.98684830183882
2014-08-01 13.4919047619048 9.82798243541579
2014-09-01 13.4666666666667 8.81868640894354
2014-10-01 18.0586956521739 15.8210219197063
2014-11-01 13.4131578947368 13.3970810256398
2014-12-01 16.2922727272727 12.6776962236592
2015-01-01 19.1195 15.7595066593111
2015-02-01 15.9042105263158 15.0605413117661
2015-03-01 14.8127272727273 11.9081033749209
2015-04-01 13.4947619047619 11.3649001619808
2015-05-01 13.3385 10.8721694508023
2015-06-01 14.3395454545455 10.1852954642109
2015-07-01 14.3527272727273 11.2008794070188
2015-08-01 19.4280952380952 17.1578913874853
2015-09-01 24.3771428571429 26.9300903430801
2015-10-01 16.7895454545455 19.5589064901892
2015-11-01 16.21 14.1246755280583
2015-12-01 18.0254545454546 14.764661196443
2016-01-01 23.7178947368421 20.9795078751305
2016-02-01 22.517 23.7920098259485
2016-03-01 15.8490909090909 17.4428431022355
2016-04-01 14.3004761904762 12.569060686306
2016-05-01 14.8528571428571 11.4573152479773
2016-06-01 17.7745454545455 11.1230682149325
2016-07-01 13.1585 11.5389365635622
2016-08-01 12.3995652173913 8.42583633405736
2016-09-01 14.2195238095238 9.50221898724423
2016-10-01 14.5852380952381 9.86549293793094
2016-11-01 15.2361904761905 10.7475839062464
2016-12-01 12.472380952381 9.01062035492342
2017-01-01 11.6085 8.06896363532775
2017-02-01 11.5305263157895 7.16883158607285
2017-03-01 11.8978260869565 7.20629746881546
2017-04-01 13.1363157894737 8.49360444542242
2017-05-01 10.8622727272727 7.24759440046714
2017-06-01 10.5136363636364 7.01334048477469
2017-07-01 10.2645 7.12034492818466
2017-08-01 11.975652173913 6.90795664105576
2017-09-01 10.438 6.54125369078903
2017-10-01 10.1254545454545 5.27389980968198
2017-11-01 10.5404761904762 5.84479294949191
2017-12-01 10.2645 7.23499283061537
2018-01-01 11.062380952381 6.77541611092376
2018-02-01 22.4647368421053 20.572505856656
2018-03-01 19.0238095238095 19.2618968514775
2018-04-01 18.267619047619 19.5808867247401
2018-05-01 14.1245454545455 14.8106305233894
2018-06-01 13.6780952380952 11.0454744502952
2018-07-01 13.147619047619 10.0286895812441
2018-08-01 12.5469565217391 8.27097174618237
2018-09-01 12.9105263157895 8.19863496904712
2018-10-01 19.3521739130435 14.6777616210532
2018-11-01 19.3890476190476 20.3410001773174
2018-12-01 24.9531578947368 24.2321641542392
2019-01-01 19.572380952381 24.8134248848276
2019-02-01 15.2347368421053 16.1606148326353
2019-03-01 14.4852380952381 12.5406849055309
2019-04-01 12.9490476190476 10.4209893359285
2019-05-01 16.7218181818182 11.9610097014147
2019-06-01 15.836 12.3025994129791
2019-07-01 13.3059090909091 9.34302256031922
2019-08-01 18.9790909090909 15.5079331270021
2019-09-01 15.559 13.7219387604588
2019-10-01 15.4665217391304 12.9387385377296
2019-11-01 12.5235 9.15420648725419
2019-12-01 13.7566666666667 8.3994198382941
2020-01-01 13.9409523809524 7.98369176539619
2020-02-01 19.6289473684211 12.2365638156213
2020-03-01 57.7368181818182 56.5586260945065
2020-04-01 41.4538095238095 53.4102759542249
2020-05-01 30.897 32.756269223923
2020-06-01 31.1195454545455 25.6247341922733
2020-07-01 26.8404545454546 21.5031570895711
2020-08-01 22.8895238095238 15.3690985164429
2020-09-01 27.6476190476191 20.5418604968546
2020-10-01 29.4386363636364 19.5877576152385
2020-11-01 24.9955 20.0376556449721
2020-12-01 22.3740909090909 14.5492880919919
2021-01-01 24.91 13.9562047344031
2021-02-01 23.1405263157895 15.0593794836253
2021-03-01 21.8430434782609 18.3769275939718
2021-04-01 17.4161904761905 13.2313562937738
2021-05-01 19.7605 12.8252262203708
2021-06-01 16.9568181818182 10.6032266166644
2021-07-01 17.6033333333333 9.52645194888206
2021-08-01 17.4727272727273 8.99534443590278
2021-09-01 19.8247619047619 9.90594969044093
2021-10-01 17.8714285714286 13.1456212129217
2021-11-01 18.5004761904762 10.7570802346356
2021-12-01 21.3545454545455 15.7955957418576
2022-01-01 23.181 17.9282315000871
2022-02-01 25.7484210526316 24.063251073424
2022-03-01 26.9686956521739 24.4150619775907
2022-04-01 24.3735 19.5813259832849
2022-05-01 29.4457142857143 27.6670107835342
2022-06-01 28.1 26.574983043866
2022-07-01 24.8685 24.1781105222104
2022-08-01 22.1695652173913 18.585284994645
2022-09-01 27.4061904761905 21.3716829769924
2022-10-01 30.0057142857143 24.7822513452429
2022-11-01 23.4361904761905 23.4664894552688
2022-12-01 21.7842857142857 20.0756545422753
2023-01-01 20.203 18.8732935658872
2023-02-01 20.0621052631579 18.0190169714457
2023-03-01 21.644347826087 18.4049477440983
2023-04-01 17.8178947368421 14.9687907315622
2023-05-01 17.6440909090909 12.8509974274721
2023-06-01 13.9942857142857 11.6561191843863
2023-07-01 13.944 9.79831068494798
2023-08-01 15.8539130434783 10.9969847113933
2023-09-01 15.241 11.2287345409683
2023-10-01 18.8877272727273 14.0331382562593
2023-11-01 14.0771428571429 12.8557245805426
2023-12-01 12.7185 10.5920551016867
2024-01-01 13.3952380952381 10.1509801322086
2024-02-01 13.944 10.2371785984691
2024-03-01 13.7875 10.208355240128
2024-04-01 16.1377272727273 12.0377126079641
2024-05-01 13.0904545454545 11.7693232675433
2024-06-01 12.6768421052632 10.5636592457948
2024-07-01 14.47 10.81172578912
2024-08-01 19.3122727272727 16.42679172377
2024-09-01 17.8115789473684 14.7227809294335
2024-10-01 19.9608695652174 12.1717893722529
2024-11-01 21.93 11.3523602607711

Note: Realized volatility is computed from an exponentially weighted moving average of 5-minute daily realized variances with 75 percent of the weight distributed over the past 20 business days. Median refers to the median option-implied volatility. The median value is 19.02.

Source: Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) accessed via Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

Return to text
Figure 1.7. Corporate bond yields fell somewhat and were near their median for the past 30 years

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond yields fell somewhat and were near their median for the past 30 years". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 1997 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 24 percent. The data are monthly and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. It begins at around 9 percent in 1997 and rises gradually to around 13 percent in 2002. It falls to around 8 percent in 2003 and remains there until 2007. The curve rises to 11 in early 2008, before spiking to about 22 percent in late 2008. The series falls sharply to about 9 percent in 2009 before decreasing more slowly to 7 percent in 2011. The series generally remains around 6 percent through 2020, with local spikes to around 9 in late 2011, early 2016, and early 2020. The series stays around 4 percent in 2021 before rising gradually to about 9 percent by October 2022. The series decreases slightly throughout 2023 before jumping back up to 9 percent in October 2023. It hovers between 7 and 8 percent throughout 2024, ending just above 7 percent in October 2024. The second line is labeled "Triple-B" and is designated by a blue line. It begins at around 7 percent in 1997, fluctuates between 6 and 9 percent until 2002, and rises to 10 percent in late 2008. The series falls sharply to around 5 percent in late 2009. It remains between 3 and 5 percent from 2010 to 2019. It has a spike in early 2020 from 2 to 5 percent then decreases back to around 2 percent in October 2020. It hovers at the level through the end of 2021. The series then rises to 6 percent by the end of 2022 and falls back to around 5 percent in early 2023. The series hovers between 5 and 6 percent through the end of the series in October 2024.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the effective yield of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0).

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

Figure 1.8. Corporate bond spreads went down a little and were at low levels

This is a line chart titled "Corporate bond spreads went down a little and were at low levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are monthly, and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "High-yield" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 24 percentage points. It begins at around 3 percentage points in 1997 and rises steadily, with local peaks in 1999, late 2000, and mid-2001, to around 10 percentage points by 2002. The series falls to 4 percentage points by the end of 2004 and then declines slowly to around 2 percent until 2007. The series then rises rapidly to its peak in late 2008 of around 20 percentage points. It then falls steeply in 2009 to around 6 percentage points before it falls gradually to 4 percentage points in 2011. In late 2011, the series spikes to 8 percentage points, before falling steadily to around 4 percentage points in 2014. The series rises gradually from 2014 to 2016 to 7 percentage points, then falls to around 4 percentage points again in 2017, remaining there through 2019. In early 2020, the series jumps to almost 9 percentage points then drops to about 5 percentage points in October. It then steadily decreases to about 3 percentage points in April 2021 and remains there until early 2022. The series then begins rising gradually again to around 5 percentage points in October 2022, then decreases slightly to just below 4 percentage points by April 2023. The series shows a slight uptick closer to a value of 4 percentage points in September 2023 and declines to 3 percentage points by March 2024. The series remains at about 3 through the end of the series, finishing at 2.83 in October 2024.The second line is labeled "Triple B" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 12 percentage points. It begins at just under 1 percentage point in 1997, rises to around 3.5 percentage points by the end of 2002. The series declines to around 1 percentage point by the start of 2004 and remains there until mid-2007. From there, it rapidly rises to its peak in late 2008 of around 7.7 percentage points. The series then falls steeply in 2009 to around 3 percentage points and declines further to below 2 percentage points in 2011. The series jumps to 3 percentage points in mid-2011 before declining slowly to 1.5 percentage points in 2014. The series then rises gradually to around 3 percentage points in early 2016, then declines to around 1 percentage point by early 2018. The series remains around 1.5 percentage points from 2018 through early 2020 before jumping to almost 4 percentage points in March 2020. The series then decreases to 1 percent by April 2021 and remains there through mid-2022, where it climbs to around 2 percentage points. The value gently declines throughout 2023 and early 2024, hovering at 1.1 percentage points from March to September 2024. The series declines slightly at the end of the series to 1.03 percentage points in October 2024.

Note: The triple-B series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield series reflects the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0).

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

Figure 1.9. The excess bond premium remained just below its long-run average

Percentage points

Date Excess Bond Premium
1997-01-01 -0.336636188400102
1997-02-01 -0.455597080773101
1997-03-01 -0.48174574046456
1997-04-01 -0.43995353928537
1997-05-01 -0.437930106580436
1997-06-01 -0.539112942292909
1997-07-01 -0.509425908509266
1997-08-01 -0.504752118943134
1997-09-01 -0.556055866136703
1997-10-01 -0.434808449728754
1997-11-01 -0.327870404895877
1997-12-01 -0.394989455224675
1998-01-01 -0.355344658723989
1998-02-01 -0.329233258698675
1998-03-01 -0.378032978350883
1998-04-01 -0.407452116200455
1998-05-01 -0.370032350049156
1998-06-01 -0.331648591443938
1998-07-01 -0.294055003226182
1998-08-01 0.105192900017056
1998-09-01 0.0913709921965866
1998-10-01 0.216001576315136
1998-11-01 0.197830839644193
1998-12-01 0.0608948229033561
1999-01-01 0.0566760825620651
1999-02-01 -0.163470369679803
1999-03-01 -0.155111827313916
1999-04-01 -0.197087946235204
1999-05-01 -0.191346332857539
1999-06-01 -0.131616477593268
1999-07-01 -0.081193479152162
1999-08-01 -0.0258703499464605
1999-09-01 0.105083030220057
1999-10-01 0.119581286348513
1999-11-01 0.0843292913245639
1999-12-01 -0.144481784286412
2000-01-01 0.0383393519360573
2000-02-01 0.13109980531218
2000-03-01 0.400711934568257
2000-04-01 0.557122485815022
2000-05-01 0.736811685714375
2000-06-01 0.77508334156012
2000-07-01 0.858144966090972
2000-08-01 1.00789663026985
2000-09-01 1.11937785369852
2000-10-01 1.51683289206937
2000-11-01 1.59926185009327
2000-12-01 1.5947164290922
2001-01-01 1.13958454268184
2001-02-01 1.16399590092758
2001-03-01 1.09715160839573
2001-04-01 0.918004402445507
2001-05-01 0.779362796477058
2001-06-01 1.01273373428046
2001-07-01 0.780955192084802
2001-08-01 0.754445307499387
2001-09-01 1.22053869826363
2001-10-01 1.0375641018472
2001-11-01 -0.0591553736769583
2001-12-01 0.417837934369181
2002-01-01 0.571922804156248
2002-02-01 0.772600158567025
2002-03-01 0.290222892761972
2002-04-01 0.409123981523505
2002-05-01 0.500856311156342
2002-06-01 0.942035674944737
2002-07-01 1.53965597189317
2002-08-01 1.43886304296135
2002-09-01 1.61623255029705
2002-10-01 1.4211190074946
2002-11-01 1.0335836243036
2002-12-01 0.888233283289707
2003-01-01 0.839747863569803
2003-02-01 0.635553462161121
2003-03-01 0.134957486015656
2003-04-01 0.0351643552192042
2003-05-01 -0.487765521473392
2003-06-01 -0.401595052072867
2003-07-01 -1.05095248452765
2003-08-01 -0.214295742029015
2003-09-01 -0.553106532424037
2003-10-01 -0.533029301587902
2003-11-01 -0.554010105533858
2003-12-01 -0.53253718776153
2004-01-01 -0.719396470154252
2004-02-01 -0.346049165531105
2004-03-01 -0.529460204730771
2004-04-01 -0.745418221441673
2004-05-01 -0.369568732942939
2004-06-01 -0.386870651197177
2004-07-01 -0.326837840592335
2004-08-01 -0.433724529645973
2004-09-01 -0.553411745937723
2004-10-01 -0.541898398314515
2004-11-01 -0.681781719373848
2004-12-01 -0.727909177367698
2005-01-01 -0.708645525604435
2005-02-01 -0.92633240905081
2005-03-01 -0.631265442701651
2005-04-01 -0.376664011740184
2005-05-01 -0.302964686368634
2005-06-01 -0.449514592120415
2005-07-01 -0.552061272399025
2005-08-01 -0.553342206564971
2005-09-01 -0.464615757797027
2005-10-01 -0.343400257857179
2005-11-01 -0.311660595263756
2005-12-01 -0.280487093754116
2006-01-01 -0.363316698767617
2006-02-01 -0.31866019202126
2006-03-01 -0.403567005518021
2006-04-01 -0.449667673735234
2006-05-01 -0.354674615608501
2006-06-01 -0.367369186201115
2006-07-01 -0.274038558603785
2006-08-01 -0.30417992241984
2006-09-01 -0.357458466134752
2006-10-01 -0.391251390607612
2006-11-01 -0.360985326203278
2006-12-01 -0.487049090048156
2007-01-01 -0.550998198245302
2007-02-01 -0.552173711212853
2007-03-01 -0.37095533790921
2007-04-01 -0.370975523512913
2007-05-01 -0.583978369991248
2007-06-01 -0.372621969632952
2007-07-01 0.0312303325335961
2007-08-01 0.146121989079423
2007-09-01 0.0787910925591504
2007-10-01 -0.00810640501656845
2007-11-01 0.341839254469456
2007-12-01 0.488827761256672
2008-01-01 0.724013614272036
2008-02-01 0.927288496644067
2008-03-01 1.15308644247719
2008-04-01 0.675667789369823
2008-05-01 0.679119054369398
2008-06-01 0.823600271184465
2008-07-01 1.08293941321302
2008-08-01 1.23032095377168
2008-09-01 1.80914102284001
2008-10-01 3.51303260170694
2008-11-01 3.30832562557083
2008-12-01 3.46005175978203
2009-01-01 2.86585889506036
2009-02-01 3.22916585533331
2009-03-01 2.79401789018422
2009-04-01 2.26706316683555
2009-05-01 1.39526137370911
2009-06-01 0.961897524953198
2009-07-01 0.357934415915444
2009-08-01 0.0891221273953957
2009-09-01 0.0684499737625952
2009-10-01 -0.137393232120636
2009-11-01 -0.00906239013291987
2009-12-01 -0.468919184430134
2010-01-01 -0.202921855733952
2010-02-01 -0.00738739325109083
2010-03-01 -0.162452979992256
2010-04-01 -0.274679869914087
2010-05-01 -0.120315996823271
2010-06-01 0.0482975871166746
2010-07-01 0.163787033716595
2010-08-01 -0.276854473705625
2010-09-01 -0.011765816370013
2010-10-01 -0.0259964793100482
2010-11-01 -0.145912389770865
2010-12-01 -0.41313335804116
2011-01-01 -0.0380752721475033
2011-02-01 -0.280908427169251
2011-03-01 -0.319786208389139
2011-04-01 -0.275043075558941
2011-05-01 -0.151809999175666
2011-06-01 -0.0301413601244938
2011-07-01 -0.0743797048817383
2011-08-01 -0.0958302714928085
2011-09-01 0.450867273596455
2011-10-01 -0.0812289922582714
2011-11-01 0.507379565721133
2011-12-01 0.282584140917628
2012-01-01 0.180039890559413
2012-02-01 0.0508804589145839
2012-03-01 -0.340111483512807
2012-04-01 -0.168534717086268
2012-05-01 -0.0710564454437264
2012-06-01 0.162510936993108
2012-07-01 -0.00819959949959114
2012-08-01 -0.206795637385023
2012-09-01 -0.155429514668905
2012-10-01 -0.185103448198653
2012-11-01 -0.0549182114137059
2012-12-01 -0.170374599944288
2013-01-01 -0.104793167157733
2013-02-01 -0.0437504716201662
2013-03-01 -0.108342199809201
2013-04-01 -0.136108273965643
2013-05-01 -0.500025402342406
2013-06-01 -0.353217711927452
2013-07-01 -0.0245909180790882
2013-08-01 -0.130135851637026
2013-09-01 -0.144864163127154
2013-10-01 -0.0571083187357901
2013-11-01 -0.0191144589288421
2013-12-01 -0.171650556984975
2014-01-01 -0.319091646972575
2014-02-01 -0.226158032903053
2014-03-01 -0.288461668443863
2014-04-01 -0.368918156437444
2014-05-01 -0.381753493423093
2014-06-01 -0.316478315593799
2014-07-01 -0.319936627606254
2014-08-01 -0.314132536473171
2014-09-01 -0.21122566985567
2014-10-01 -0.210790984166698
2014-11-01 0.0635492814490908
2014-12-01 0.0971058236146316
2015-01-01 -0.0207442212413671
2015-02-01 -0.268816353561291
2015-03-01 -0.114335648722296
2015-04-01 0.0114839623721297
2015-05-01 0.0555424964638713
2015-06-01 0.15010575049177
2015-07-01 0.215195308078957
2015-08-01 0.401053586642051
2015-09-01 0.539912642705513
2015-10-01 0.422237056196237
2015-11-01 0.51042803525607
2015-12-01 0.688445692130169
2016-01-01 0.921615523108464
2016-02-01 0.950610390862925
2016-03-01 0.572570243210893
2016-04-01 0.228004835280827
2016-05-01 0.240582171237661
2016-06-01 0.0564309843372559
2016-07-01 0.00411617103970218
2016-08-01 -0.0286693841199361
2016-09-01 -0.0796411831220514
2016-10-01 -0.0861069522338718
2016-11-01 -0.725637268222718
2016-12-01 -0.251368903559861
2017-01-01 -0.204109656696883
2017-02-01 -0.189551209327054
2017-03-01 -0.17938595533005
2017-04-01 -0.13180691869595
2017-05-01 -0.180512166090826
2017-06-01 -0.13903235010773
2017-07-01 -0.165223097690326
2017-08-01 -0.0929938006334545
2017-09-01 -0.268193054432187
2017-10-01 -0.228623872910867
2017-11-01 -0.145018282293074
2017-12-01 -0.206249355850653
2018-01-01 -0.403009416270868
2018-02-01 -0.251480264864896
2018-03-01 -0.111554587436276
2018-04-01 -0.287893682083623
2018-05-01 -0.200244255282352
2018-06-01 0.0184855814744833
2018-07-01 -0.13602655861618
2018-08-01 -0.10440901636299
2018-09-01 -0.184227862484437
2018-10-01 -0.0133945367197716
2018-11-01 0.132462386038289
2018-12-01 0.326064395401864
2019-01-01 0.156870592484577
2019-02-01 0.0448807292825602
2019-03-01 -0.139951890352927
2019-04-01 -0.0267929961343953
2019-05-01 -0.0342496115400803
2019-06-01 -0.0141420948511899
2019-07-01 -0.0638082210196167
2019-08-01 -0.172856632397018
2019-09-01 -0.252050104745421
2019-10-01 -0.245467470310489
2019-11-01 -0.193562425599923
2019-12-01 -0.309788756451973
2020-01-01 -0.26483175890981
2020-02-01 -0.16590953470383
2020-03-01 1.21504237797027
2020-04-01 0.655039565963346
2020-05-01 0.390524903969522
2020-06-01 0.0404803337093327
2020-07-01 -0.173491532849986
2020-08-01 -0.300472355159701
2020-09-01 -0.0183600162226045
2020-10-01 -0.225766189747513
2020-11-01 -0.484397356322176
2020-12-01 -0.523182146147639
2021-01-01 -0.674445015834212
2021-02-01 -0.957404333426894
2021-03-01 -0.76266703639512
2021-04-01 -0.504253041159831
2021-05-01 -0.441224385691998
2021-06-01 -0.594074246832264
2021-07-01 -0.561747553500631
2021-08-01 -0.488484422902473
2021-09-01 -0.650555352385623
2021-10-01 -0.526706350012092
2021-11-01 -0.444581047380761
2021-12-01 -0.446250346159732
2022-01-01 -0.344951570366642
2022-02-01 -0.209057468932102
2022-03-01 -0.800867934301456
2022-04-01 -0.288921229516937
2022-05-01 -0.121291674886222
2022-06-01 0.0777232304715347
2022-07-01 -0.00870585957574032
2022-08-01 -0.0427682690364846
2022-09-01 0.0281598875055562
2022-10-01 0.0775295630984529
2022-11-01 -0.244755498711316
2022-12-01 -0.0326239176559466
2023-01-01 -0.0542488409386397
2023-02-01 -0.166362912781341
2023-03-01 -0.213817042924968
2023-04-01 0.140848528120491
2023-05-01 0.0921084637939833
2023-06-01 0.140381874246957
2023-07-01 -0.0152444601396833
2023-08-01 0.0381815880995997
2023-09-01 -0.0417716253962388
2023-10-01 0.195348812573345
2023-11-01 -0.0907854458058295
2023-12-01 -0.243778802970934
2024-01-01 -0.0951489126274443
2024-02-01 -0.152550995803865
2024-03-01 -0.11245581079135
2024-04-01 -0.220403646425231
2024-05-01 -0.154978770421219
2024-06-01 -0.0499852202383946
2024-07-01 -0.11848395291133
2024-08-01 -0.0704533955447697
2024-09-01 -0.13543848514187

Note: The excess bond premium (EBP) is a measure of bond market investors' risk sentiment. It is derived as the residual of a regression that models corporate bond spreads after controlling for expected default losses. By construction, its historical mean is zero. Positive (negative) EBP values indicate that investors' risk appetite is below (above) its historical mean.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Lehman Brothers Fixed Income Database (Warga); Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., ICE Data Services; Center for Research in Security Prices, CRSP/Compustat Merged Database, Wharton Research Data Services; S&P Global, Compustat.

Figure 1.10. Spreads on leveraged loans stayed moderately below their average over the past decade

Percentage points

Date B (monthly) B (weekly) BB (monthly) BB (weekly)
1997-01-31     2.09188813027478  
1997-02-28     2.08178410192779  
1997-03-31     2.0821313539782  
1997-04-30     2.13128050966926  
1997-05-31     2.15663678327004  
1997-06-30     2.16723470638971  
1997-07-31 2.27865930277876   1.91211795426737  
1997-08-31 2.25519091192546   1.84799350267688  
1997-09-30 2.28226436624624   1.89031225692967  
1997-10-31 2.54870194148935   1.95239138987806  
1997-11-30 2.55227719847765   1.91123857847702  
1997-12-31 2.57766307859505   1.8853121084073  
1998-01-31 2.58328670414448   2.03962118865891  
1998-02-28 2.57724045434183   2.07686434704832  
1998-03-31 2.61434693144427   2.0142442090996  
1998-04-30 2.60471125675774   2.01964906051112  
1998-05-31 2.64727726013339   2.1742561357748  
1998-06-30 2.63838491070021   2.2804004021624  
1998-07-31 2.65298114421288   2.25461214228082  
1998-08-31 2.75105860252154   2.33040625069404  
1998-09-30 2.94176293011435   2.50368333817936  
1998-10-31 3.06324577222541   2.63021214384542  
1998-11-30 3.34669581632647   2.68688948779824  
1998-12-31 3.23167824969875   2.5574278061721  
1999-01-31 3.20045350392008   2.62222216268432  
1999-02-28 3.21252047029818   2.54969107864208  
1999-03-31 3.57072031339457   2.48431663439138  
1999-04-30 3.9333620829635   2.65158887562905  
1999-05-31 3.79734775882652   2.84294180372083  
1999-06-30 3.85661993243559   2.84376703464754  
1999-07-31 4.09639914591775   2.94888708534177  
1999-08-31 4.45692369680667   2.99404771578472  
1999-09-30 4.74567730353751   3.96252458533367  
1999-10-31 4.96156505726983   4.08542737863742  
1999-11-30 4.74194866264647   3.90885983736204  
1999-12-31 6.07594580603178   4.01508894466472  
2000-01-31 6.24211266836964   4.07331847721963  
2000-02-29 6.0743165320234   4.11406244684139  
2000-03-31 6.05480803120477   3.43483075505671  
2000-04-30 5.4393059506722   3.51119269263113  
2000-05-31 5.2455597903178   3.25902829785642  
2000-06-30 5.67158559945934   3.11633077776893  
2000-07-31 6.03340100401027   3.00189608969078  
2000-08-31 5.72920206373075   3.02041146177765  
2000-09-30 6.65220806624019   3.19167801986832  
2000-10-31 6.90970681334637   3.25572404050639  
2000-11-30 7.30996411733616   3.0709693072654  
2000-12-31 6.68883659623133   3.04620716632122  
2001-01-31 6.26216559265882   2.95059470390094  
2001-02-28 5.95037410707916   2.91025142523614  
2001-03-31 6.8348554997985   2.94681492043774  
2001-04-30 6.70873676752182   2.95507753634301  
2001-05-31 6.49519380030705   2.94735515085341  
2001-06-30 6.62316783543957   2.98929677062879  
2001-07-31 6.71076176682289   3.03049463891544  
2001-08-31 6.50998425898807   2.99783463202895  
2001-09-30 7.41861800862683   3.34538512033514  
2001-10-31 8.70615523076835   3.50811202527628  
2001-11-30 6.81765816329182   3.1143087844617  
2001-12-31 6.21014368310919   3.08920974701227  
2002-01-31 5.89286230863572   3.05192671026051  
2002-02-28 5.50244168261337   3.09142866939944  
2002-03-31 5.2230700434849   3.06572116988246  
2002-04-30 4.91982091590623   2.93946018349618  
2002-05-31 5.62215768952538   2.95233394415463  
2002-06-30 5.90371031672073   2.99329172692435  
2002-07-31 6.63147354763437   3.37911052029842  
2002-08-31 6.52683651010467   3.71526740579213  
2002-09-30 6.63805299967334   3.75018611807546  
2002-10-31 7.37496079911215   4.63927393752635  
2002-11-30 6.71848802934704   4.13735824720685  
2002-12-31 6.58138167838912   3.51504977973325  
2003-01-31 6.1042887123579   3.6008317889486  
2003-02-28 6.29662598070628   3.55664378996593  
2003-03-31 6.03170446252915   3.56692318005584  
2003-04-30 5.10701592299812   3.58065733646884  
2003-05-31 4.65926353155153   3.35162084074896  
2003-06-30 4.47566585183824   3.24248905217641  
2003-07-31 4.51259015396569   3.03234954878876  
2003-08-31 4.72497007493186   3.00626932126184  
2003-09-30 4.97967971238535   2.98081491715672  
2003-10-31 4.82321686517537   2.93755889404213  
2003-11-30 4.77608795632832   2.85310817323464  
2003-12-31 4.51467928453276   2.6096842608013  
2004-01-31 4.03029588240263   2.50584845765378  
2004-02-29 4.20273622017769   2.45050495529649  
2004-03-31 3.91740711424247   2.38195219076694  
2004-04-30 3.91963700739703   2.33385804691638  
2004-05-28 4.06261763945341   2.40125276014603  
2004-06-25 3.770043862382   2.34405188017961  
2004-07-30 3.84362793338027   2.25514115056385  
2004-08-31 3.69002375710118   2.20174843523389  
2004-09-30 3.6132191586509   2.13629916371444  
2004-10-29 3.42314267259918   2.10181111511617  
2004-11-30 3.25822348403558   2.07276369311587  
2004-12-31 3.20597759869138   2.01421096639184  
2005-01-31 3.25257792381212   1.98007779319212  
2005-02-25 3.14236991707397   1.93754573405074  
2005-03-31 3.04703913863471   1.85071831549634  
2005-04-29 3.29521581578657   1.82632886600368  
2005-05-31 3.12460567509078   1.86077029367427  
2005-06-30 3.0989292840778   1.84082502050528  
2005-07-29 3.03893426657107   1.76522563810955  
2005-08-30 2.97701212387517   1.68452592457589  
2005-09-30 2.95968475602158   1.72581908938116  
2005-10-28 3.00461148758371   1.77175634695531  
2005-11-30 2.89325453111939   1.78389317184715  
2005-12-30 2.8126312452552   1.80844276129604  
2006-01-31 2.82383799143358   1.74509262913098  
2006-02-28 2.78175102015367   1.68153963246369  
2006-03-31 2.73977196409467   1.68006845983146  
2006-04-28 2.7374360091284   1.66051441311656  
2006-05-31 2.67311713249498   1.72787218226183  
2006-06-30 2.67443850599523   1.8352632973603  
2006-07-28 2.69880906374307   1.87550444857827  
2006-08-31 2.74011534139188   1.86821573022612  
2006-09-29 2.73862697147573   1.86028664985925  
2006-10-31 2.69793073232383   1.82781796313336  
2006-11-30 2.70284182597395   1.96649848866957  
2006-12-29 2.72599794125974   1.94127586989883  
2007-01-31 2.6009438606843   1.91399043749182  
2007-02-28 2.5272169246271   1.74093261911432  
2007-03-30 2.4927885532305   1.77072853120909  
2007-04-27 2.46445680735925   1.79786483048767  
2007-05-31 2.41101261501855   1.7854775964612  
2007-06-29 2.69801407467645   2.01031142193302  
2007-07-31 3.47862536221395   2.82408782626828  
2007-08-31 3.5937015877151   2.99739196770473  
2007-09-28 3.34114476544724   2.71172116173131  
2007-10-26 3.28502814719285   2.63790557145956  
2007-11-30 3.85693642989592   3.06270059562676  
2007-12-28 4.15882970451708   2.92911429296445  
2008-01-31 4.97580601761539   3.74354717570948  
2008-02-29 6.07321224924927   4.37609661511741  
2008-03-28 7.20862322105508   4.32482406795875  
2008-04-30 6.34801131263565   3.68216495273447  
2008-05-30 6.37950640066329   3.58771647847705  
2008-06-27 6.39477656025946   3.86289048424729  
2008-07-31 7.17316958878979   4.17916907289259  
2008-08-29 7.65469664955774   4.23328471212778  
2008-09-30 10.607979887877   5.941421105947  
2008-10-31 17.0496957424426   9.27448359334444  
2008-11-28 20.8910378938561   11.0334418958842  
2008-12-31 24.7612246563106   11.4703036462376  
2009-01-30 20.6985407092928   8.74457510422384  
2009-02-27 20.7549427316504   7.85357321044109  
2009-03-31 20.3194044491426   7.79174615240187  
2009-04-30 15.786038192821   5.7679907102825  
2009-05-29 12.3996603533352   5.56070162593438  
2009-06-30 10.2336164578227   4.85609147918706  
2009-07-31 8.49779936832999   4.18603261946884  
2009-08-31 7.80796562290773   4.13370667387195  
2009-09-30 6.96202796956235   4.00687340822193  
2009-10-30 6.36999188965138   4.19524810650038  
2009-11-30 6.70409102583303   4.52667154088844  
2009-12-31 6.02043666937183   3.88209813583743  
2010-01-29 5.67379035809451   3.69984828297773  
2010-02-26 5.7822661128449   3.81346069657269  
2010-03-31 5.27419835045083   3.49925432468838  
2010-04-30 5.0460927826293   3.42850473957399  
2010-05-28 6.10543623024698   3.98869269820655  
2010-06-30 6.42705157683265   4.16663178231691  
2010-07-30 5.98086462113477   4.01401196700854  
2010-08-31 5.98119702611061   4.00699099853277  
2010-09-30 5.61969456662555   3.88035423998445  
2010-10-29 5.22023899583472   3.65819695629145  
2010-11-30 5.61476070096215   3.70954513195812  
2010-12-31 5.28999708060695   3.68691684025719  
2011-01-31 4.80097016558672   3.50604518273776  
2011-02-28 4.81988837128684   3.52192607285771  
2011-03-31 4.85444457487651   3.43637521065588  
2011-04-29 4.89480425026024   3.41062736021962  
2011-05-31 5.04115512498801   3.57179875459206  
2011-06-30 5.3503277520567   3.81206875808854  
2011-07-29 5.42496965934118   3.82019930449133  
2011-08-31 6.75122837180944   5.11095175061018  
2011-09-30 6.84634418450028   4.68831852521755  
2011-10-31 6.05515839539509   4.01878680390856  
2011-11-30 6.53995760069879   4.24431121818214  
2011-12-30 6.33434552748561   4.15559112077351  
2012-01-31 5.70928828158087   3.85459973600913  
2012-02-29 5.33490847175098   3.80114370520161  
2012-03-30 5.37403609249873   3.75743553343684  
2012-04-30 5.38119550782858   3.91407037181226  
2012-05-31 5.86109397101384   4.26256828632616  
2012-06-29 5.79267347095032   4.24860079202893  
2012-07-31 5.87794053904916   4.10026247259039  
2012-08-31 5.69416190819523   4.16761212907391  
2012-09-28 5.5476911767617   3.96244043750308  
2012-10-31 5.49088784138084   3.8331065872443  
2012-11-30 5.60407425671063   3.83601469037822  
2012-12-31 5.49233823127293   3.84047115766707  
2013-01-31 5.28405064001766   3.71937944101957  
2013-02-28 5.32035062291634   3.861849518314  
2013-03-28 5.13598413524542   3.72611153995014  
2013-04-30 5.0383598162799   3.78662384641244  
2013-05-31 4.86938408394411   3.62152863963582  
2013-06-28 4.9769299524155   3.58700717220769  
2013-07-31 4.82136502220599   3.33340038812367  
2013-08-30 4.92173338649918   3.40972662819095  
2013-09-30 4.9932912216694   3.4562389124408  
2013-10-31 4.90185285194628   3.43042130481635  
2013-11-22   4.91637778364698   3.49995576462803
2013-11-29   4.91489145822393   3.51823397177957
2013-12-06   4.89817100430771   3.52459276910555
2013-12-13   4.87633132064758   3.51926546943906
2013-12-20   4.86250334679012   3.46052304917047
2013-12-27   4.83980360603194   3.39837080463852
2014-01-03   4.83926207860685   3.36962879124066
2014-01-10   4.77494501917518   3.34135203327447
2014-01-17   4.73975072568043   3.3524914539517
2014-01-24   4.73646798787304   3.33811266672592
2014-01-31   4.77016827236739   3.37325313687265
2014-02-07   4.76437119002641   3.36645353532583
2014-02-14   4.73872926184662   3.42315964086771
2014-02-21   4.71526742302429   3.43704694172964
2014-02-28   4.70979052611215   3.32352411407987
2014-03-07   4.70453342901222   3.31890602292125
2014-03-14   4.68132546123847   3.32047207715588
2014-03-21   4.64860397499193   3.30609210897079
2014-03-28   4.65233932128799   3.3187880657679
2014-04-04   4.71830446491942   3.37557489583033
2014-04-11   4.69698195730859   3.40917412257506
2014-04-17   4.71840205394015   3.40264500562951
2014-04-25   4.75595087556828   3.45350745879057
2014-05-02   4.73882504563956   3.40738497428832
2014-05-09   4.73296931694963   3.37252531166816
2014-05-16   4.69847111631524   3.38038639083675
2014-05-23   4.706252086923   3.38948227715568
2014-05-30   4.71765350547339   3.38995151133101
2014-06-06   4.6995774433724   3.40024991588999
2014-06-13   4.68582056857851   3.40250785908654
2014-06-20   4.6901188430303   3.38909477375372
2014-06-27   4.68084523433063   3.37139239803294
2014-07-03   4.66633452261199   3.38307288607895
2014-07-11   4.65857597067141   3.41784123114314
2014-07-18   4.6659170994457   3.41566751268603
2014-07-25   4.67109311730194   3.42556658674084
2014-08-01   4.74805780968992   3.49879613949364
2014-08-08   4.76257888201742   3.5583365069534
2014-08-15   4.80261064709441   3.63192707714925
2014-08-22   4.79454545842564   3.60877405954633
2014-08-29   4.75837697480166   3.57570601648156
2014-09-05   4.76726830882043   3.57521551140782
2014-09-12   4.81951602406893   3.62895900793567
2014-09-19   4.82183648754252   3.63256938129911
2014-09-26   4.90198628546893   3.71275918533139
2014-10-03   4.9731622277328   3.75530829164795
2014-10-10   4.98611463225786   3.78239737586072
2014-10-17   5.14012253202681   3.92146477437829
2014-10-24   5.08514834895335   3.8370866843996
2014-10-31   4.99933234616711   3.73780065651997
2014-11-07   5.01100684904652   3.70667733646381
2014-11-14   4.99526248182246   3.69454860804504
2014-11-21   5.00529508118267   3.6769910383602
2014-11-28   5.03232370180273   3.66995726094642
2014-12-05   5.1397457541618   3.69046140810833
2014-12-12   5.40528299362656   3.91427253842378
2014-12-19   5.51980796490439   3.94950852225728
2014-12-26   5.44830160805005   3.89882720993366
2015-01-02   5.44314434282006   3.88988542000737
2015-01-09   5.44088050559043   3.91557037578101
2015-01-16   5.45126002574333   3.89341142942705
2015-01-23   5.44320950277286   3.87960284354776
2015-01-30   5.4717472745429   3.92504357694723
2015-02-06   5.41379114714461   3.85642696588578
2015-02-13   5.33495035928777   3.79452283581625
2015-02-20   5.27347491984475   3.74824947188234
2015-02-27   5.22462583955283   3.72837399567687
2015-03-06   5.18878600162185   3.67783499969861
2015-03-13   5.16095196059059   3.68595865959697
2015-03-20   5.21212271838608   3.7039294958199
2015-03-27   5.21040576976154   3.6691098112641
2015-04-02   5.17689192920751   3.66188919704314
2015-04-10   5.12256794459723   3.58180059569194
2015-04-17   5.13622103857814   3.56328005594519
2015-04-24   5.11367740105739   3.56036280375722
2015-05-01   5.11800049041236   3.54895259745194
2015-05-08   5.09496299151701   3.56703795884056
2015-05-15   5.11173556438909   3.59520708059008
2015-05-22   5.12971847695507   3.56732242752164
2015-05-29   5.1385489287563   3.56770722014389
2015-06-05   5.22301671682687   3.58179778740348
2015-06-12   5.27686504688179   3.60793647410906
2015-06-19   5.30869653296769   3.6407188188135
2015-06-26   5.30953444734911   3.62499974273843
2015-07-02   5.35425665665574   3.62705513977472
2015-07-10   5.34092405702112   3.59355667538143
2015-07-17   5.29604279216756   3.54833725048025
2015-07-24   5.31247385220175   3.55294625765034
2015-07-31   5.36280463313124   3.58223070627914
2015-08-07   5.38387359994463   3.62467401701779
2015-08-14   5.41219695306286   3.68227449478734
2015-08-21   5.48304764794247   3.7089818819675
2015-08-28   5.56034620713565   3.73547202340285
2015-09-04   5.41201615980203   3.71974308819793
2015-09-11   5.42393013716328   3.69412111882769
2015-09-18   5.44558999930486   3.67578138345503
2015-09-25   5.52181476700323   3.7020468467027
2015-10-02   5.74736441251477   3.7814524235744
2015-10-09   5.75407152664045   3.7708172595384
2015-10-16   5.78555008004803   3.78068402704747
2015-10-23   5.76314916952293   3.7813489849771
2015-10-30   5.76807599065604   3.84873772418925
2015-11-06   5.77125800121641   3.81105380168687
2015-11-13   5.89956008310185   3.89986672118246
2015-11-20   6.07562302612588   3.94775121742508
2015-11-27   6.11454532437702   3.91666031917897
2015-12-04   6.20790434894555   3.87448434390473
2015-12-11   6.66078696304955   3.95863275027327
2015-12-18   7.00450487581199   4.02301498263567
2015-12-24   7.07631577811547   4.04999667361663
2015-12-31   7.07805136792277   4.03275706474643
2016-01-08   7.11676407939582   4.00644001367358
2016-01-15   7.2210975604736   4.03359478177958
2016-01-22   7.46337768524091   4.14091382690796
2016-01-29   7.42678670089386   4.14373685793356
2016-02-05   7.45999483429677   4.11214555773313
2016-02-12   7.71024442831311   4.26279275637569
2016-02-19   7.5240639280762   4.26707335543469
2016-02-26   7.50770241798086   4.24014746092948
2016-03-04   7.24520009893011   4.11303023510059
2016-03-11   6.95079647832345   3.97372927972425
2016-03-18   6.56339300174208   3.76342887181848
2016-03-24   6.50421022315242   3.78112959129545
2016-04-01   6.28089057388705   3.80515300854348
2016-04-08   6.20216637155657   3.73085005738116
2016-04-15   5.80787741744995   3.690519534833
2016-04-22   5.59908323159387   3.61692564314733
2016-04-29   5.52139347464069   3.60326241722237
2016-05-06   5.49952765042342   3.64283150155244
2016-05-13   5.46322213305495   3.65015830375734
2016-05-20   5.41681587934615   3.62108273361469
2016-05-27   5.33203362292375   3.57969950310109
2016-06-03   5.33630456818927   3.57047494826849
2016-06-10   5.2893665721734   3.60896516723463
2016-06-17   5.29490836136151   3.64507632982754
2016-06-24   5.34496110020322   3.64104107937441
2016-07-01   5.37963599435492   3.6516620150831
2016-07-08   5.33862198970846   3.62224721849152
2016-07-15   5.23473772354749   3.54090099024028
2016-07-22   5.14703681266651   3.48375055175672
2016-07-29   5.12163925234107   3.4487599093137
2016-08-05   5.09830271884235   3.46955660840227
2016-08-12   5.07211100901761   3.43932826921559
2016-08-19   5.13233801903715   3.44403937587897
2016-08-26   5.09757265285631   3.45441185579766
2016-09-02   5.04271659750334   3.42611597088864
2016-09-09   5.00157512777542   3.38567964898607
2016-09-16   5.00055027680326   3.36698596480488
2016-09-23   4.88504562421038   3.34908471542541
2016-09-30   4.88306837659863   3.34111843067678
2016-10-07   4.84030645117753   3.27493098141671
2016-10-14   4.86098316510816   3.27357158959381
2016-10-21   4.80530747023467   3.20248959643703
2016-10-28   4.77981780318977   3.19305339427132
2016-11-04   4.79701673867684   3.24851839970379
2016-11-10   4.79987437775647   3.27209881737001
2016-11-18   4.76775100252788   3.21853842737824
2016-11-25   4.74923311008474   3.20983696957339
2016-12-02   4.68170235078925   3.20028216033608
2016-12-09   4.59316229521329   3.09443007766811
2016-12-16   4.54333726114963   3.06594440963085
2016-12-23   4.59501723022806   3.07159749764825
2016-12-30   4.64336752809592   3.03577630657698
2017-01-06   4.56763913172123   3.01991974131742
2017-01-13   4.53657423317396   3.03011585809734
2017-01-20   4.55613459131796   3.05640018164289
2017-01-27   4.53502088905104   3.08667360182461
2017-02-03   4.50386572010133   3.06061959213651
2017-02-10   4.50864842346537   3.00743841833436
2017-02-17   4.44817748548348   2.95155920637098
2017-02-24   4.38856087782047   2.93218927897703
2017-03-03   4.34229959348746   2.88409623161945
2017-03-10   4.34439197323899   2.86958767103107
2017-03-17   4.32180828144712   2.85235146975824
2017-03-24   4.31639611186715   2.93696817826241
2017-03-31   4.25067399712789   2.90972981608549
2017-04-07   4.1548281469157   2.87888211801366
2017-04-13   4.11561365233479   2.85045098102648
2017-04-21   4.12901079481905   2.8327897612187
2017-04-28   4.12658447576905   2.81799604975454
2017-05-05   4.15789586631832   2.88118683586918
2017-05-12   4.13028738552222   2.88242432899756
2017-05-19   4.11115061258223   2.88877368930913
2017-05-26   4.03856830223847   2.88590368291577
2017-06-02   4.05462319439513   2.8659693763501
2017-06-09   4.03421705795138   2.86923816833126
2017-06-16   4.03666158594686   2.88012744812461
2017-06-23   4.07046880118707   2.8640374354623
2017-06-30   4.07836583024533   2.83919819967175
2017-07-07   4.0692808983178   2.83318329855319
2017-07-14   4.09480046963445   2.83288055949895
2017-07-21   4.09006272411951   2.80431436364773
2017-07-28   4.03022575240947   2.78096381744228
2017-08-04   4.03237919747284   2.75204425907666
2017-08-11   4.05640957124301   2.79943796474621
2017-08-18   4.06605176579403   2.7788642606794
2017-08-25   4.07179922383678   2.82070245102456
2017-09-01   4.05934413260524   2.85221006787829
2017-09-08   4.02195779086437   2.87263476250438
2017-09-15   4.01712607300918   2.89065377092883
2017-09-22   4.02240181940972   2.82480844370843
2017-09-29   4.01261108997878   2.71581802737161
2017-10-06   3.9801376016454   2.66825916590503
2017-10-13   3.94523593474567   2.66621357451677
2017-10-20   3.92501865446377   2.65054248736078
2017-10-27   3.94470887194254   2.65176796405097
2017-11-03   3.9658747221224   2.62679979211548
2017-11-10   3.98252891261967   2.62230662993716
2017-11-17   3.96101265071187   2.6463455345622
2017-11-24   3.95486511783194   2.6371524972503
2017-12-01   3.94824207720089   2.62863821380309
2017-12-08   3.94398250686086   2.60784429609643
2017-12-15   3.99904960207814   2.62225817366873
2017-12-22   3.91151776618421   2.62741150957061
2017-12-29   3.88619959269827   2.5949562196173
2018-01-05   3.87332191330704   2.55285062697653
2018-01-12   3.80788949014598   2.54363231733713
2018-01-19   3.77164134032746   2.5240891062831
2018-01-26   3.73386001489898   2.49594761567828
2018-02-02   3.70233791053562   2.438156129872
2018-02-09   3.74160329369141   2.4811853576384
2018-02-16   3.73065385882746   2.48637425328456
2018-02-23   3.72776746538791   2.50238264142974
2018-03-02   3.72263611801141   2.51309855397887
2018-03-09   3.72171718220192   2.50958072842874
2018-03-16   3.70461834383821   2.49426911033018
2018-03-23   3.72231576950643   2.49018121201369
2018-03-30   3.7230251951681   2.49285152442253
2018-04-06   3.71612127233982   2.49498620311494
2018-04-13   3.68343738109994   2.48872275663687
2018-04-20   3.66087969758433   2.45645300543463
2018-04-27   3.66893774143854   2.43889424627615
2018-05-04   3.68427149296337   2.43984005471942
2018-05-11   3.67930851146035   2.44477163013841
2018-05-18   3.67525845981945   2.46968335228819
2018-05-25   3.69176526211537   2.49195051030461
2018-06-01   3.72332340675616   2.48448039124568
2018-06-08   3.71382500681671   2.48614320452861
2018-06-15   3.72550947235705   2.49076377997511
2018-06-22   3.74568864270355   2.51663685834703
2018-06-29   3.76364651933181   2.55210342907046
2018-07-06   3.75000831557254   2.53111125673911
2018-07-13   3.75643716619156   2.54117486170418
2018-07-20   3.74809617253688   2.53204466005412
2018-07-27   3.75741714589224   2.51411306037712
2018-08-03   3.7528377908275   2.49816219761235
2018-08-10   3.76716622391631   2.51615723593393
2018-08-17   3.77435918226536   2.53300423077876
2018-08-24   3.80714169508916   2.48288833624394
2018-08-31   3.82743274272498   2.49270627312086
2018-09-07   3.81910810361591   2.49455194580355
2018-09-14   3.80641608895297   2.49930274201197
2018-09-21   3.77814271293329   2.48123153109327
2018-09-28   3.73482378128511   2.48072328864636
2018-10-05   3.72656245199978   2.47629985708589
2018-10-12   3.74729595553431   2.48655197238986
2018-10-19   3.74860505844252   2.48924037858587
2018-10-26   3.78971638505862   2.53710607340934
2018-11-02   3.84271285629863   2.58085479276245
2018-11-09   3.85503672675878   2.61467685919488
2018-11-16   3.95101152350418   2.68142568527006
2018-11-23   4.07374660613147   2.75960544817044
2018-11-30   4.17985958317769   2.8844288545427
2018-12-07   4.33434796085598   3.00907876399125
2018-12-14   4.50954585344991   3.15063351363666
2018-12-21   4.83257332265705   3.37317030509131
2018-12-28   4.94122329206996   3.46286007388947
2019-01-04   4.73375437365023   3.18090595633502
2019-01-11   4.486701419743   2.91121215889692
2019-01-18   4.47568672444736   2.83841603241475
2019-01-25   4.52734440887592   2.88150270351691
2019-02-01   4.54293545312963   2.88767136943739
2019-02-08   4.49250267781263   2.86281477648882
2019-02-15   4.44073466160228   2.8307858305961
2019-02-22   4.33191831622411   2.76026964519274
2019-03-01   4.23652832588994   2.68540522830284
2019-03-08   4.32283200278578   2.74664667090451
2019-03-15   4.31454877947418   2.73489610017568
2019-03-22   4.39741989864395   2.78664899792143
2019-03-29   4.45584150984744   2.87707104056228
2019-04-05   4.3159451260146   2.79292197190798
2019-04-12   4.25748716810827   2.74187611393584
2019-04-18   4.21402891775767   2.72785890714153
2019-04-26   4.18071902345997   2.69829143982099
2019-05-03   4.12750529430217   2.68315197273811
2019-05-10   4.20079036003462   2.68093889112379
2019-05-17   4.16356959802504   2.6819717156539
2019-05-24   4.21900172474993   2.68168053966785
2019-05-31   4.29964475758305   2.67587446689644
2019-06-07   4.30494313300387   2.66533403033834
2019-06-14   4.31331840903089   2.65367033083029
2019-06-21   4.31387927868547   2.66336916643676
2019-06-28   4.36415151101045   2.69929692833618
2019-07-05   4.35510858855109   2.69134857200558
2019-07-12   4.31907074668464   2.67279730917817
2019-07-19   4.30248306660984   2.65404417360417
2019-07-26   4.30303544647292   2.64709207709244
2019-08-02   4.30448715064339   2.72991332569066
2019-08-09   4.40934930713279   2.77004863224085
2019-08-16   4.50301207882155   2.80149663781179
2019-08-23   4.50999689810473   2.78083811908707
2019-08-30   4.46482146949076   2.8023572997496
2019-09-06   4.41971703517452   2.7415976790562
2019-09-13   4.34678088478722   2.66964922942204
2019-09-20   4.34022412526567   2.68027481859003
2019-09-27   4.32556151233034   2.67485256251625
2019-10-04   4.43294388971371   2.70441032347559
2019-10-11   4.58654495197368   2.74495028993093
2019-10-18   4.61878118929424   2.72144214325561
2019-10-25   4.63462952825916   2.71363575461445
2019-11-01   4.68316808948193   2.74595379782876
2019-11-08   4.67717900387977   2.75194374316822
2019-11-15   4.6150340620581   2.74513217561298
2019-11-22   4.66984659554786   2.75398635634921
2019-11-29   4.65818411628064   2.74263674496092
2019-12-06   4.54771273848953   2.71077821761063
2019-12-13   4.3637871257466   2.65641442555315
2019-12-20   4.24240182668674   2.64070995018315
2019-12-27   4.24130141056805   2.63801445965637
2020-01-03   4.23049444983206   2.62167247877522
2020-01-10   4.14029626872452   2.57931937654344
2020-01-17   4.10710221026255   2.57207486014564
2020-01-24   4.11279807013901   2.60142240124387
2020-01-31   4.19191771317293   2.62787380461248
2020-02-07   4.21811346555717   2.67868462426466
2020-02-14   4.21048702983462   2.69448073971834
2020-02-21   4.18981138242357   2.71089339469687
2020-02-28   4.58138557621447   3.03880080837431
2020-03-06   4.85477584715005   3.24309169306511
2020-03-13   6.39315211391352   4.75030012561186
2020-03-20   9.68739260092734   7.8806042671714
2020-03-27   9.0306529225545   6.1461346295332
2020-04-03   8.15259801651325   5.04829592148126
2020-04-09   7.30657588339548   4.26438475790934
2020-04-17   6.7360976048753   3.94069489976242
2020-04-24   6.91374564901344   4.12101405085405
2020-05-01   6.8824849427713   4.13917110058719
2020-05-08   6.55861011568805   4.05176174730315
2020-05-15   6.51186157473642   4.03392645967781
2020-05-22   6.15929618127385   3.70510790351894
2020-05-29   5.77001377931713   3.4344889145417
2020-06-05   5.4198791219675   3.2112860264866
2020-06-12   5.37102316454119   3.26416713949091
2020-06-19   5.21608940404011   3.13867739157079
2020-06-26   5.50974931325779   3.38152909811216
2020-07-03   5.39806282191817   3.35794001914109
2020-07-10   5.37437731397208   3.30091358378154
2020-07-17   5.20023680148142   3.19192136564217
2020-07-24   5.06954330950156   3.09475137870875
2020-07-31   5.0927880932399   3.12994566527787
2020-08-07   4.96005290443384   3.04927895220595
2020-08-14   4.86108506468236   3.01750549807591
2020-08-21   4.88126190230468   3.08827145429687
2020-08-28   4.83104673379427   3.07060158005247
2020-09-04   4.65395937636892   2.90011528470132
2020-09-11   4.57862586580644   2.86677815659921
2020-09-18   4.55619295794674   2.8817746529005
2020-09-25   4.74111097556897   3.05841006383966
2020-10-02   4.74973729390598   3.09762905126333
2020-10-09   4.63216027105228   3.00536761563756
2020-10-16   4.66633821543806   3.0363007477585
2020-10-23   4.82556847697998   3.06605226056402
2020-10-30   5.00410486151849   3.21763676843888
2020-11-06   4.80846502420817   3.05705969400357
2020-11-13   4.67376752764658   2.98700829582721
2020-11-20   4.66943570140276   3.02083782874059
2020-11-27   4.60730508698756   2.98489617363073
2020-12-04   4.49988024170091   2.89999632245025
2020-12-11   4.46126169486212   2.86494857960463
2020-12-18   4.39362491852663   2.80638031001718
2020-12-24   4.40935014394781   2.8127459954473
2020-12-31   4.38956255330549   2.79512899510646
2021-01-08   4.23329543415278   2.63397220424553
2021-01-15   4.15506644344309   2.64628839458702
2021-01-22   4.1603840947008   2.63271411742065
2021-01-29   4.22316097660908   2.69317560654646
2021-02-05   4.20291096662308   2.68301508442682
2021-02-12   4.13003648628249   2.70447106184269
2021-02-19   4.11652962039695   2.70891755513389
2021-02-26   4.13347853454002   2.6927847519463
2021-03-05   4.14089666271652   2.75376587820022
2021-03-12   4.15029675974803   2.77049424618101
2021-03-19   4.20770166320041   2.81491065354549
2021-03-26   4.2337836523724   2.84058371573269
2021-04-02   4.24216976821223   2.84234060257599
2021-04-09   4.16670358393048   2.79128932080083
2021-04-16   4.1595164342912   2.80930099144069
2021-04-23   4.18816945363116   2.77143980588233
2021-04-30   4.18242223783981   2.80354637622791
2021-05-07   4.18601516663148   2.81382373298497
2021-05-14   4.1895074229372   2.83972037729225
2021-05-21   4.16266527942296   2.81553035069414
2021-05-28   4.15102393126615   2.78910792195324
2021-06-04   4.13752526970911   2.81805168365214
2021-06-11   4.11886966406813   2.80114725876029
2021-06-18   4.14724738665526   2.85726846868376
2021-06-25   4.1674497136781   2.8846361124996
2021-07-02   4.16808501027835   2.89567726643191
2021-07-09   4.16252811661521   2.91082062412683
2021-07-16   4.15242194078449   2.85811178156657
2021-07-23   4.16536742244913   2.89548215307277
2021-07-30   4.21450427640906   2.92057529762784
2021-08-06   4.22990260207722   2.92647601377693
2021-08-13   4.22826319962781   3.08834455886038
2021-08-20   4.25221264339828   3.14229208727937
2021-08-27   4.23584489415241   3.11721155795411
2021-09-03   4.21437164838956   3.09462511718466
2021-09-10   4.18491760590191   3.07190748879936
2021-09-17   4.17651346154114   3.06541969655385
2021-09-24   4.17854494895039   3.06011664701043
2021-10-01   4.16983172948045   3.04855196484254
2021-10-08   4.18336936583397   3.04671880550561
2021-10-15   4.19600015243809   3.0466996965445
2021-10-22   4.18919880905461   3.05453607711811
2021-10-29   4.19674264218586   3.05898863205879
2021-11-05   4.17919091492711   3.05336404260009
2021-11-12   4.16570406060587   3.00451614957152
2021-11-19   4.16870972284368   3.00843875709851
2021-11-26   4.21072794923365   3.03842165372046
2021-12-03   4.28560225289367   3.08382558058027
2021-12-10   4.23950778343897   3.03051359434843
2021-12-17   4.22675301254695   3.0710875292918
2021-12-24   4.2198034931944   3.06022985306994
2021-12-31   4.28037633229866   3.08079993720851
2022-01-07   4.20642763486986   3.02483210270173
2022-01-14   4.1758813764982   2.99231002690423
2022-01-21   4.15720830018707   2.98513963099083
2022-01-28   4.23665026444295   3.03127961199681
2022-02-04   4.24434976129994   3.02785863506354
2022-02-11   4.29586119250583   3.05931500352623
2022-02-18   4.38417918616559   3.15982979231888
2022-02-25   4.46171519927789   3.22983846236946
2022-03-04   4.4537746867728   3.24193603990983
2022-03-11   4.77329785913411   3.50053771599677
2022-03-18   4.72174089781076   3.45360981464082
2022-03-25   4.5823469600073   3.33856216149833
2022-04-01   4.4331048380424   3.17536127110806
2022-04-08   4.19868280571032   3.01087177887668
2022-04-15   4.19981310817067   3.04871794483991
2022-04-22   4.21455467588161   3.01962953336435
2022-04-29   4.32392627002777   3.10274658464665
2022-05-06   4.45370498776753   3.23516224867446
2022-05-13   4.94292401350464   3.63349524195021
2022-05-20   5.09464865352738   3.72478381912594
2022-05-27   5.16713692006923   3.71841676120812
2022-06-03   4.96190902249778   3.48545036412118
2022-06-10   4.99038255375087   3.50535567368182
2022-06-17   5.38973078105364   3.83324796891127
2022-06-24   5.49972919392619   3.88932235681221
2022-07-01   5.87024843598552   4.16697621333022
2022-07-08   5.91197235877488   4.1931917061723
2022-07-15   5.84341300636366   4.13883942268278
2022-07-22   5.4138681662434   3.720255810389
2022-07-29   5.3657848919672   3.68371104373575
2022-08-05   5.18497258754535   3.49514018477731
2022-08-12   4.89893499237146   3.29749471391827
2022-08-19   4.98887241789133   3.33027462506864
2022-08-26   5.07694673634835   3.41590090858603
2022-09-02   5.23012890770867   3.47741643573316
2022-09-09   5.20813916105857   3.45706476697873
2022-09-16   5.29260414352571   3.4951882831456
2022-09-23   5.58069895713423   3.59514583215458
2022-09-30   5.95424627704004   3.8044689405769
2022-10-07   5.74787332032119   3.64247625709545
2022-10-14   5.91973992825147   3.6632204178041
2022-10-21   5.91555830600449   3.57145685899135
2022-10-28   5.9393160349981   3.55280821962995
2022-11-04   5.77744999132781   3.4684290570924
2022-11-11   5.65463490200775   3.43584534830288
2022-11-18   5.51877624984427   3.40342637810754
2022-11-25   5.53338512141118   3.41009529146504
2022-12-02   5.48187975284611   3.39905781322169
2022-12-09   5.49547200452299   3.39380985857368
2022-12-16   5.50482737446216   3.36601559915847
2022-12-23   5.45820522247659   3.37067928051912
2022-12-30   5.47131763392736   3.38462776604
2023-01-06   5.32532752746079   3.24028168773051
2023-01-13   5.0935681262709   3.10548972862594
2023-01-20   5.03228265237015   3.11398051722137
2023-01-27   4.91538780153413   3.08770211990513
2023-02-03   4.88783981636924   3.07568037144501
2023-02-10   4.80035578601994   3.08251777170337
2023-02-17   4.87803879409925   3.2642159953622
2023-02-24   5.0024355210421   3.32613083005194
2023-03-03   4.98220101336694   3.31908353110109
2023-03-10   5.02067218864067   3.41226325980725
2023-03-17   5.4284592280188   3.69312459188341
2023-03-24   5.46015865454741   3.41076956816121
2023-03-31   5.16159891946793   3.29848853008191
2023-04-07   5.10177038801146   3.2840999216597
2023-04-14   5.05150348255803   3.25970723977671
2023-04-21   4.97136536961754   3.27240854456264
2023-04-28   4.9648964189216   3.26087304478011
2023-05-05   5.0727824278723   3.31235367463578
2023-05-12   5.12192944492827   3.37095675952783
2023-05-19   5.14241091334059   3.39199445765739
2023-05-26   5.2714715506019   3.44621535151174
2023-06-02   5.25038727865748   3.44261557540231
2023-06-09   5.08601839192266   3.35070698269619
2023-06-16   4.96360494202584   3.29029499365745
2023-06-23   4.97692064563626   3.30342416330775
2023-06-30   4.81836912018537   3.209455621531
2023-07-07   4.72801127303233   3.16413316959267
2023-07-14   4.5892874041397   3.10757318770804
2023-07-21   4.65031936637405   3.12319738642292
2023-07-28   4.65130846202699   3.11844380406022
2023-08-04   4.72433331333539   3.13965908365023
2023-08-11   4.72097852024232   3.13169296626439
2023-08-18   4.7814995714259   3.13032972809667
2023-08-25   4.77112294713473   3.12093251651773
2023-09-01   4.69536558497596   3.1151301188841
2023-09-08   4.62774780915257   3.11556673686872
2023-09-15   4.49944612308881   3.07473169331102
2023-09-22   4.4967756645971   3.08696070338685
2023-09-29   4.60099862594902   3.13128052544342
2023-10-06   4.73394830616631   3.22947469018209
2023-10-13   4.67568454991729   3.19381949405343
2023-10-20   4.74705725397444   3.20905057758238
2023-10-27   4.84919564590059   3.24798127953383
2023-11-03   4.84012543959042   3.19086442921904
2023-11-10   4.76369295147738   3.22054538305418
2023-11-17   4.72722606361623   3.18016603287138
2023-11-24   4.74204387278806   3.19989109637263
2023-12-01   4.74406733966552   3.1995421987107
2023-12-08   4.67626386939788   3.17545726284641
2023-12-15   4.55542998749156   3.10902273128329
2023-12-22   4.52372242713245   3.08300588570076
2023-12-29   4.46379606304717   3.04439116184219
2024-01-05   4.44416393781167   3.03849446510619
2024-01-12   4.42998849305406   3.03175535872249
2024-01-19   4.46649593961854   3.02229752126663
2024-01-26   4.47676959603577   3.03487327327727
2024-02-02   4.44661255026788   3.0877437451045
2024-02-09   4.42857341517991   3.09455673046814
2024-02-16   4.40104041488779   3.07316340802546
2024-02-23   4.38169992657429   3.05854411401054
2024-03-01   4.36360045800961   3.01175741777971
2024-03-08   4.3141197585875   3.02985455018771
2024-03-15   4.25289487855915   3.00819667535299
2024-03-22   4.26749124644629   3.02781447638552
2024-03-29   4.27157503265625   2.96854851157396
2024-04-05   4.25975421987518   2.94220870584076
2024-04-12   4.33952504897737   2.94106228848252
2024-04-19   4.36381603173792   2.94803820354432
2024-04-26   4.30378908436083   2.92353809018166
2024-05-03   4.28359194153597   2.90295964206167
2024-05-10   4.21385733162228   2.89975419762436
2024-05-17   4.202134004268   2.89884121041725
2024-05-24   4.20374688373111   2.87768734509637
2024-05-31   4.2014676745876   2.86866968575059
2024-06-07   4.18833704485273   2.87085759198522
2024-06-14   4.22743258223545   2.90796587831294
2024-06-21   4.25467681544396   2.84321508081804
2024-06-28   4.23592779225434   2.81915312820015
2024-07-05   4.22286030618708   2.81326997732665
2024-07-12   4.2069198722959   2.80832055676732
2024-07-19   4.17674094806602   2.79052867527271
2024-07-26   4.1827477531041   2.78396456822947
2024-08-02   4.2396981103713   2.80798921870207
2024-08-09   4.24467641104815   2.79602373708319
2024-08-16   4.17782099737817   2.78553728885875
2024-08-23   4.11230286931712   2.69557353911778
2024-08-30   4.12325499090734   2.67816594309273
2024-09-06   4.14164499740827   2.68989930353821
2024-09-13   4.15218482459485   2.69963017265512
2024-09-20   4.13097668955865   2.69536930835065
2024-09-27   4.13593101687655   2.7163125482196
2024-10-04   4.10375104135303   2.70260586703339
2024-10-11   4.05404990643135   2.69069439589513
2024-10-18   4.00724888648943   2.69169124302654
2024-10-25   4.01146501243722   2.68954904037111
2024-11-01   4.03315331499767   2.70684771571673

Note: The data show secondary-market discounted spreads to maturity. Spreads are the constant spread used to equate discounted loan cash flows to the current market price. B-rated spreads begin in July 1997. The black dashed line represents the data transitioning from monthly to weekly in November 2013.

Source: PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

Figure 1.11. Treasury market depth remained below historical norms

This is a line chart titled "Treasury market depth remained below historical norms". The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2019 to November 2024. The data are 5-day moving average, and there are three variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "5-year" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 160 million in 2019 and rises steadily, with local peaks in February of 2019 and October 2020. The peaks are between 260 and 285 million. In March of 2020, the series reaches its lowest value at 15 million. By the end of 2020, the value has risen again to about 260 million but declines to 40 million in March 2022, with much volatility in that decline. Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a slight uptick in the series, reaching about 80 million in December and climbing to 90 million by March 2024. The series rises with much volatility to reach about 122 million in September 2024, then declines steeply to reach its end point of 89.26 million in November 2024. The second line is labeled "10-year" and is designated by a red line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 350 in millions of dollars. It begins at just over 100 million dollars in 2019, climbs to 240 million in April 2019, then declines to around 75 million by August of 2019. It then upticks to 140 million in early 2020. There is a sharp decrease down to around 12 million in March of 2020. Following this sharp decline is an overall increase until June 2021 at a value of around 175 million. From this point there is a decreasing trend in the series with fluctuations between about 60 and 80 million throughout 2022 and 2023. In 2024, the series remains steady until a very steep decline to a local minimum of 48.19 million in early August 2024. It rapidly rises back up to about 100 million by mid-August, where the series remains for the duration of the time period. The final value is about 110 million in November 2024. The third series is labeled "30-year" and is designated by a blue line. The line corresponds to values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 35 in millions of dollars. The line starts around 15 million in January 2019 before a quick increase to around 28 million in the middle of 2019. There is a sharp decline to about 7 million in October of 2019 before a rise back to about 15 million and then an even sharper decline to under 5 million in March 2020. From there, the series rises to over 20 million in June 2021, before gradually declining to around 7 million in March 2022. The series hovers between 7 and 11 million until the end of 2022, when it declines again to about 5 million. It rises again to about 15 million by end the of 2023, drops to 10 million in the beginning of 2024, then rises to around 16 million in March 2024. It remains there until a steep decline to 12.36 million in early August 2024, but it quickly rebounds back to around 15.6 million by mid-August 2024. It jumps to nearly 18 million by the end of September 2024. The series remains around that value for the remainder of the plotted period, ending at 17.5 million in November 2024.

Note: Market depth is defined as the average top 3 bid and ask quote sizes for on-the-run Treasury securities.

Source: Inter Dealer Broker Community.

Figure 1.12. On-the-run market depth continued to be below historical norms

This is a line chart titled "On-the-run market depth continued to be below historical norms". The x-axis measures time and ranges from September 2019 to March 2024. The data are 5-day moving average, and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "2-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 300 in millions of dollars. It begins at around 50 million in October 2019 and rises steadily before there is a sharp decrease in March 2020 to a low of about 9 million. Then, there is a quick rebound back to around 285 million in February of 2021, a sharp drop down to about 110 million in March 2021, and an increase back to about 275 million in July 2021.The series has two quick decreases to around 50 million in January of 2022. There is a gradual decrease to around 10 million in early 2023. The series remains between 5 and 12 million for most of 2023 but increases in early 2024 to almost 40 million in May 2024, where the series hovers for a few months. There is a decline in early July 2024 to about 28 million, and the series remains around that value through the end of the series. The final value is at about 20 million in October 2024. The second line is labeled "10-year OTR market depth" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 60 in millions of dollars. It begins at about 35 million dollars in 2019, rises to around 50 million by February of 2020 before steeply dropping to 5 million in March 2020. The series increases back up to 55 million in late 2020. The series wavers between 30 and 50 million in 2021 and then declines throughout 2022 from about 30 million dollars to about 10 million dollars. March 2023 shows a further decline to about 8 million dollars before the series takes on an increasing trend reaches about 31 million in March 2024. It remains around that value until a steep decline in early August 2024, where the series reaches a local minimum of about 15 million. The series recovers quickly and ends at about 35 million in October 2024.

Note: The data show the time-weighted average market depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, for 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. OTR is on-the-run.

Source: BrokerTec; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 1.13. A measure of liquidity in equity markets remained below its average

Market depth (number of contracts)

Date Close Depth
1997-09-09 12.9649122807018
1997-09-10 8.95159194282001
1997-09-11 11.9533246696989
1997-09-12 12.7828947368421
1997-09-15 14.3658219623132
1997-09-17 14.7160493827161
1997-09-18 18.3086419753086
1997-09-19 18.3410493827161
1997-09-22 18.7345679012346
1997-09-23 17.6944444444444
1997-09-24 16.9506172839506
1997-09-25 16.3703703703704
1997-09-26 16.9232618583496
1997-09-29 18.2343729694607
1997-09-30 18.5738791423002
1997-10-01 19.3368421052632
1997-10-02 20.0936322287199
1997-10-03 19.2345679012346
1997-10-06 18.1543209876543
1997-10-07 18.1543209876543
1997-10-08 17.9395061728395
1997-10-09 16.5938271604938
1997-10-10 15.3950617283951
1997-10-13 14.3432098765432
1997-10-14 13.7185185185185
1997-10-15 12.9086419753086
1997-10-16 12.6456790123457
1997-10-17 12.9012345679012
1997-10-20 12.6592592592593
1997-10-21 11.9049382716049
1997-10-22 11.4084470435348
1997-10-23 10.9430149447693
1997-10-24 10.3158544509422
1997-10-27 9.720619111436
1997-10-28 8.5739678768681
1997-10-29 7.65194058641975
1997-10-30 7.07416280864198
1997-10-31 6.7358912037037
1997-11-03 6.73729938271605
1997-11-04 7.55308641975309
1997-11-05 8.30493827160494
1997-11-06 8.61851851851852
1997-11-07 8.58024691358025
1997-11-10 8.52962962962963
1997-11-11 8.7037037037037
1997-11-12 8.84691358024691
1997-11-13 8.82962962962963
1997-11-14 9.45061728395062
1997-11-17 9.88888888888889
1997-11-18 9.7679012345679
1997-11-19 9.82469135802469
1997-11-20 10.1913580246914
1997-11-21 10.3111111111111
1997-11-24 9.9358024691358
1997-11-25 9.91358024691358
1997-11-26 10.0037037037037
1997-11-28 9.66098765432099
1997-12-01 10.44
1997-12-02 11.5758024691358
1997-12-03 12.2338271604938
1997-12-04 12.9955555555556
1997-12-05 13.9691358024691
1997-12-08 13.8827160493827
1997-12-09 13.6197530864198
1997-12-10 13.5246913580247
1997-12-11 12.8148148148148
1997-12-12 12.3185185185185
1997-12-15 12.3358024691358
1997-12-16 11.9740740740741
1997-12-17 11.541975308642
1997-12-18 12.041975308642
1997-12-19 12.4876543209877
1997-12-22 11.6296296296296
1997-12-23 11.3753086419753
1997-12-24 11.2898765432099
1997-12-26 9.41384326355341
1997-12-29 8.1027321524423
1997-12-30 7.60890499194847
1997-12-31 7.61754696725711
1998-01-02 7.47458400429415
1998-01-05 9.2962962962963
1998-01-06 10.4925925925926
1998-01-07 11.2785657998424
1998-01-08 12.0983188862622
1998-01-09 12.6066985158918
1998-01-12 11.9054639479905
1998-01-13 12.1363281455214
1998-01-14 12.6441820987654
1998-01-15 12.362700617284
1998-01-16 12.7901234567901
1998-01-20 13.7358024691358
1998-01-21 14.0053133302078
1998-01-22 13.9571651820597
1998-01-23 13.6077824660103
1998-01-26 13.8732145647757
1998-01-27 14.1238318487264
1998-01-28 13.741975308642
1998-01-29 13.7876543209877
1998-01-30 14.5493827160494
1998-02-02 14.3320987654321
1998-02-03 14.0222222222222
1998-02-04 14.2740740740741
1998-02-05 14.5123456790123
1998-02-06 14.1234567901235
1998-02-09 14.1407407407407
1998-02-10 14.4407407407407
1998-02-11 14.5358024691358
1998-02-12 14.7407407407407
1998-02-13 13.7728395061728
1998-02-17 13.8024691358025
1998-02-18 14.3666666666667
1998-02-19 14.5296296296296
1998-02-20 14.0728395061728
1998-02-23 15.4185185185185
1998-02-24 15.5703703703704
1998-02-25 14.679012345679
1998-02-26 14.6012345679012
1998-02-27 14.5814814814815
1998-03-02 14.583950617284
1998-03-03 14.7407407407407
1998-03-04 14.3864197530864
1998-03-05 14.380987654321
1998-03-06 14.3241975308642
1998-03-09 14.2081481481482
1998-03-10 13.9649382716049
1998-03-11 14.6562962962963
1998-03-12 14.558024691358
1998-03-13 14.4777777777778
1998-03-16 14.8765432098765
1998-03-17 15.2913580246914
1998-03-18 15.0938271604938
1998-03-19 15.2925925925926
1998-03-20 15.5654320987654
1998-03-23 15.6740740740741
1998-03-24 15.8827160493827
1998-03-25 16.3172839506173
1998-03-26 16.445987654321
1998-03-27 15.6111111111111
1998-03-30 14.3271604938272
1998-03-31 13.070987654321
1998-04-01 11.8811728395062
1998-04-02 12.320987654321
1998-04-03 12.1567901234568
1998-04-06 12.4432098765432
1998-04-07 12.2407407407407
1998-04-08 11.9913580246914
1998-04-09 11.4617283950617
1998-04-13 11.9135802469136
1998-04-14 11.6635802469136
1998-04-15 12.033950617284
1998-04-16 11.625
1998-04-17 11.9753086419753
1998-04-20 12.7561728395062
1998-04-21 12.7561728395062
1998-04-22 11.9327238631036
1998-04-23 13.0392053445851
1998-04-24 12.4327238631036
1998-04-27 10.899434621481
1998-04-28 10.762757573728
1998-04-29 10.9375661375661
1998-04-30 10.2844797178131
1998-05-01 10.2178130511464
1998-05-04 11.3074074074074
1998-05-05 12.2259259259259
1998-05-06 12.3506172839506
1998-05-07 12.3913580246914
1998-05-08 12.3703703703704
1998-05-11 11.5617283950617
1998-05-12 11.237037037037
1998-05-13 11.1962962962963
1998-05-14 11.2962962962963
1998-05-15 11.262962962963
1998-05-18 11.3851851851852
1998-05-19 11.3493827160494
1998-05-20 11.3876543209877
1998-05-21 11.320987654321
1998-05-22 10.962962962963
1998-05-26 10.9444444444444
1998-05-27 10.2358024691358
1998-05-28 10.2111111111111
1998-05-29 10.2913580246914
1998-06-01 11.4493827160494
1998-06-02 11.5765432098765
1998-06-03 11.7530864197531
1998-06-04 11.7320987654321
1998-06-05 11.7555555555556
1998-06-08 10.9634827810266
1998-06-09 10.8992852501624
1998-06-10 11.254840805718
1998-06-11 11.0634827810266
1998-06-12 10.4190383365822
1998-06-15 10.3679012345679
1998-06-16 9.80987654320988
1998-06-17 9.4358024691358
1998-06-18 9.41975308641975
1998-06-19 9.89135802469136
1998-06-22 10.8407407407407
1998-06-23 11.8555555555556
1998-06-24 12.4074074074074
1998-06-25 12.5518518518519
1998-06-26 12.679012345679
1998-06-29 12.0123456790123
1998-06-30 12.0004566210046
1998-07-01 11.7474843565026
1998-07-02 11.6302004058853
1998-07-06 12.7768053441569
1998-07-07 13.8385337392187
1998-07-08 13.554012345679
1998-07-09 13.554012345679
1998-07-10 14.0601851851852
1998-07-13 13.8364197530864
1998-07-14 13.3662551440329
1998-07-15 13.7078189300412
1998-07-16 13.695987654321
1998-07-17 13.6296296296296
1998-07-20 13.6049382716049
1998-07-21 13.6962962962963
1998-07-22 13.4456790123457
1998-07-23 12.9469135802469
1998-07-24 12.0555555555556
1998-07-27 10.9
1998-07-28 10.2506172839506
1998-07-29 9.59382716049383
1998-07-30 9.31975308641975
1998-07-31 9.64700854700855
1998-08-03 9.89021842355176
1998-08-04 9.73725546058879
1998-08-05 9.32861348528015
1998-08-06 10.4928110161444
1998-08-07 10.2124691358025
1998-08-10 10.4040740740741
1998-08-11 9.68782407407408
1998-08-12 9.90881172839506
1998-08-13 8.13103395061728
1998-08-14 8.29770061728395
1998-08-17 7.89375
1998-08-18 8.4320987654321
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2023-10-10 48.6740740740741
2023-10-11 51.0049382716049
2023-10-12 52.4530864197531
2023-10-13 53.2444444444445
2023-10-16 55.1716049382716
2023-10-17 53.8987654320988
2023-10-18 52.2506172839506
2023-10-19 49.9259259259259
2023-10-20 49.2728395061729
2023-10-23 46.4592592592593
2023-10-24 45.058024691358
2023-10-25 44.5
2023-10-26 45.2160493827161
2023-10-27 44.2222222222222
2023-10-30 46.4259259259259
2023-10-31 47.7246913580247
2023-11-01 47.6259259259259
2023-11-02 52.8864197530864
2023-11-03 57.6407407407407
2023-11-06 60.8925925925926
2023-11-07 65.8074074074074
2023-11-08 70.3197530864198
2023-11-09 69.6012345679012
2023-11-10 71.1950617283951
2023-11-13 72.041975308642
2023-11-14 72.4148148148148
2023-11-15 73.141975308642
2023-11-16 75.537037037037
2023-11-17 77.062962962963
2023-11-20 79.3407407407408
2023-11-21 79.579012345679
2023-11-22 80.9814814814815
2023-11-24 80.3296296296296
2023-11-27 80.6308641975309
2023-11-28 80.8518518518519
2023-11-29 81.9802469135803
2023-11-30 83.7604938271605
2023-12-01 83.4950617283951
2023-12-04 87.1074074074074
2023-12-05 86.262962962963
2023-12-06 89.2358024691358
2023-12-07 92.3320987654321
2023-12-08 92.7259259259259
2023-12-11 91.3185185185185
2023-12-12 93.5888888888889
2023-12-13 94.4753086419753
2023-12-14 89.6592592592593
2023-12-15 86.6160493827161
2023-12-18 88.9382716049383
2023-12-19 91.8851851851852
2023-12-20 89.7135802469136
2023-12-21 84.8666666666667
2023-12-22 86.5098765432099
2023-12-26 80.2987654320988
2023-12-27 73.5358024691358
2023-12-28 70.3172839506173
2023-12-29 71.4358024691358
2024-01-02 71.1555555555556
2024-01-03 67.4925925925926
2024-01-04 63.2506172839506
2024-01-05 58.7123456790124
2024-01-08 62.158024691358
2024-01-09 63.7259259259259
2024-01-10 67.9024691358025
2024-01-11 66.2567901234568
2024-01-12 66.7345679012346
2024-01-16 62.3493827160494
2024-01-17 60.0320987654321
2024-01-18 56.7444444444445
2024-01-19 60.5074074074074
2024-01-22 60.0493827160494
2024-01-23 62.6358024691358
2024-01-24 62.258024691358
2024-01-25 60.9864197530864
2024-01-26 59.5641975308642
2024-01-29 63.1641975308642
2024-01-30 62.6716049382716
2024-01-31 61.8728395061728
2024-02-01 61.5604938271605
2024-02-02 60.6172839506173
2024-02-05 58.4740740740741
2024-02-06 56.7679012345679
2024-02-07 58.0938271604938
2024-02-08 62.9012345679012
2024-02-09 67.9518518518519
2024-02-12 71.4135802469136
2024-02-13 72.8666666666667
2024-02-14 72.1592592592593
2024-02-15 70.079012345679
2024-02-16 66.0469135802469
2024-02-20 60.2111111111111
2024-02-21 58.2691358024691
2024-02-22 57.9481481481482
2024-02-23 55.6493827160494
2024-02-26 55.8938271604938
2024-02-27 58.0691358024691
2024-02-28 60.4876543209877
2024-02-29 62.5765432098765
2024-03-01 69.8148148148148
2024-03-04 77.5975308641975
2024-03-05 78.1172839506173
2024-03-06 76.5493827160494
2024-03-07 78.620987654321
2024-03-08 68.4827160493827
2024-03-11 55.2086419753087
2024-03-12 51.9074074074074
2024-03-13 53.4716049382716
2024-03-14 47.7469135802469
2024-03-15 49.6271604938272
2024-03-18 53.5728395061728
2024-03-19 55.1024691358025
2024-03-20 52.7716049382716
2024-03-21 54.9802469135803
2024-03-22 58.1234567901235
2024-03-25 60.7358024691358
2024-03-26 66.2308641975309
2024-03-27 70.1148148148148
2024-03-28 74.3938271604938
2024-04-01 73.420987654321
2024-04-02 74.0506172839506
2024-04-03 69.5074074074074
2024-04-04 69.3049382716049
2024-04-05 61.2456790123457
2024-04-08 58.9543209876543
2024-04-09 54.1
2024-04-10 49.5049382716049
2024-04-11 43.8962962962963
2024-04-12 44.2382716049383
2024-04-15 41.8012345679012
2024-04-16 38.8246913580247
2024-04-17 37.8864197530864
2024-04-18 35.6098765432099
2024-04-19 32.9925925925926
2024-04-22 34.7061728395062
2024-04-23 36.520987654321
2024-04-24 38.9802469135802
2024-04-25 40.6135802469136
2024-04-26 45.8358024691358
2024-04-29 49.162962962963
2024-04-30 50.4148148148148
2024-05-01 49.1827160493827
2024-05-02 48.9160493827161
2024-05-03 46.7913580246914
2024-05-06 48.6
2024-05-07 53.1543209876543
2024-05-08 60.2617283950617
2024-05-09 68.6728395061728
2024-05-10 73.0962962962963
2024-05-13 76.0567901234568
2024-05-14 77.8333333333334
2024-05-15 80.5456790123457
2024-05-16 80.5395061728395
2024-05-17 85.0814814814815
2024-05-20 87.4148148148148
2024-05-21 93.437037037037
2024-05-22 92.9358024691358
2024-05-23 88.1925925925926
2024-05-24 84.2
2024-05-28 76.9074074074074
2024-05-29 69.2308641975309
2024-05-30 63.9901234567901
2024-05-31 65.620987654321
2024-06-03 61.2160493827161
2024-06-04 58.9518518518519
2024-06-05 57.7234567901235
2024-06-06 57.9049382716049
2024-06-07 53.8123456790124
2024-06-10 57.3135802469136
2024-06-11 60.0012345679012
2024-06-12 58.5246913580247
2024-06-13 57.5728395061729
2024-06-14 57.3851851851852
2024-06-17 55.2975308641975
2024-06-18 55.1185185185185
2024-06-20 55.2283950617284
2024-06-21 54.3493827160494
2024-06-24 55.0123456790124
2024-06-25 55.2
2024-06-26 51.937037037037
2024-06-27 51.9148148148148
2024-06-28 51.9530864197531
2024-07-01 53.5358024691358
2024-07-02 55.3271604938272
2024-07-03 58.8256307031669
2024-07-05 60.5280998389694
2024-07-08 63.9429146537842
2024-07-09 67.2564949006978
2024-07-10 72.7169887278583
2024-07-11 70.7271604938272
2024-07-12 70.7160493827161
2024-07-15 68.5160493827161
2024-07-16 64.8703703703704
2024-07-17 58.0432098765432
2024-07-18 55.8222222222222
2024-07-19 50.3185185185185
2024-07-22 48.3148148148148
2024-07-23 46.4271604938272
2024-07-24 44.7283950617284
2024-07-25 42.4320987654321
2024-07-26 41.5851851851852
2024-07-29 40.1123456790123
2024-07-30 38.5777777777778
2024-07-31 35.341975308642
2024-08-01 34.3765432098765
2024-08-02 32.637037037037
2024-08-05 26.9592592592593
2024-08-06 22.5407407407407
2024-08-07 19.0938271604938
2024-08-08 17.7530864197531
2024-08-09 17.4407407407407
2024-08-12 19.937037037037
2024-08-13 24.2987654320988
2024-08-14 26.7234567901235
2024-08-15 32.0827160493827
2024-08-16 36.4827160493827
2024-08-19 41.8691358024691
2024-08-20 43.0888888888889
2024-08-21 43.3617283950617
2024-08-22 40.7679012345679
2024-08-23 37.4888888888889
2024-08-26 35.3333333333333
2024-08-27 35.1987654320988
2024-08-28 35.8654320987654
2024-08-29 35.0691358024691
2024-08-30 36.8740740740741
2024-09-03 35.6543209876543
2024-09-04 33.2555555555556
2024-09-05 32.9061728395062
2024-09-06 31.6296296296296
2024-09-09 32.5111111111111
2024-09-10 34.0753086419753
2024-09-11 34.1061728395062
2024-09-12 34.7320987654321
2024-09-13 36.6740740740741
2024-09-16 34.1308641975309
2024-09-17 31.6530864197531
2024-09-18 31.279012345679
2024-09-19 30.7185185185185
2024-09-20 31.9518518518519
2024-09-23 33.6604938271605
2024-09-24 36.5641975308642
2024-09-25 39.1654320987654
2024-09-26 40.8320987654321
2024-09-27 42.4555555555556
2024-09-30 42.5135802469136
2024-10-01 38.3679012345679
2024-10-02 37.2283950617284
2024-10-03 34.1913580246914
2024-10-04 30.7456790123457
2024-10-07 30.7901234567901
2024-10-08 34.1074074074074
2024-10-09 35.9814814814815
2024-10-10 38.2987654320988
2024-10-11 42.4012345679012
2024-10-14 45.6382716049383
2024-10-15 47.7679012345679
2024-10-16 50.2197530864198
2024-10-17 51.6160493827161
2024-10-18 52.7061728395062
2024-10-21 51.2604938271605
2024-10-22 50.1
2024-10-23 47.7271604938272
2024-10-24 46.3506172839506
2024-10-25 42.9802469135803
2024-10-28 40.8876543209877
2024-10-29 39.2506172839506
2024-10-30 37.0395061728395
2024-10-31 35.9012345679012
2024-11-01 34.6777777777778

Note: The data show the depth at the best quoted prices to buy and sell, defined as the ask size plus the bid size divided by 2, for E-mini Standard & Poor's 500 futures. The average value is 281.

Source: Refinitiv, DataScope Tick History; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 1.14. Commercial real estate prices adjusted for inflation were little changed

Jan. 2001 = 100

Date Equal-weighted
2000-12-01 99.9098339753628
2001-01-01 100
2001-02-01 100.223471343626
2001-03-01 100.481396666124
2001-04-01 100.394153457288
2001-05-01 100.071516897143
2001-06-01 99.858043014482
2001-07-01 99.9671318681224
2001-08-01 99.717540229458
2001-09-01 99.0038718827704
2001-10-01 99.0809051057058
2001-11-01 98.990168662989
2001-12-01 99.1218674467057
2002-01-01 98.6587315314318
2002-02-01 98.1003952692923
2002-03-01 97.4770405109478
2002-04-01 96.9764376840182
2002-05-01 97.1681761099779
2002-06-01 97.5127448165222
2002-07-01 98.0148832967965
2002-08-01 98.4815068665216
2002-09-01 99.2136403693698
2002-10-01 99.9731238956573
2002-11-01 100.88125887576
2002-12-01 101.983355211805
2003-01-01 102.368234004009
2003-02-01 102.322914378633
2003-03-01 102.313056430657
2003-04-01 103.03278797155
2003-05-01 103.64437221638
2003-06-01 103.976234459025
2003-07-01 104.337342510608
2003-08-01 104.47256732614
2003-09-01 104.68201358215
2003-10-01 105.300993404514
2003-11-01 105.987307810756
2003-12-01 106.426005339348
2004-01-01 106.277398254164
2004-02-01 106.250915193247
2004-03-01 106.365258419118
2004-04-01 107.036583744036
2004-05-01 107.550597946424
2004-06-01 108.429287403356
2004-07-01 109.898698841976
2004-08-01 111.200754631497
2004-09-01 112.337850911065
2004-10-01 113.033485853567
2004-11-01 114.200859452562
2004-12-01 115.823113382059
2005-01-01 116.812638438284
2005-02-01 117.339229459536
2005-03-01 117.600976943293
2005-04-01 118.042349437005
2005-05-01 119.515785436406
2005-06-01 120.925729776274
2005-07-01 121.941371838399
2005-08-01 123.000302922954
2005-09-01 123.201485979095
2005-10-01 124.493535001121
2005-11-01 126.743778125619
2005-12-01 128.24485800167
2006-01-01 128.109733887256
2006-02-01 128.650042012769
2006-03-01 128.646143962453
2006-04-01 128.078248877421
2006-05-01 127.821643577843
2006-06-01 127.886445850096
2006-07-01 127.795921771053
2006-08-01 127.796137936439
2006-09-01 128.682624535228
2006-10-01 129.712209075009
2006-11-01 130.387151996216
2006-12-01 130.823281871222
2007-01-01 131.284811906342
2007-02-01 131.640189320483
2007-03-01 131.653044598429
2007-04-01 132.007381445202
2007-05-01 132.330636936144
2007-06-01 133.045547463289
2007-07-01 133.669788515768
2007-08-01 133.894408652029
2007-09-01 132.770280391911
2007-10-01 131.291469341255
2007-11-01 129.171352134328
2007-12-01 128.024117071662
2008-01-01 126.329782795555
2008-02-01 125.081964118893
2008-03-01 123.207500138292
2008-04-01 121.633551343718
2008-05-01 119.608106368784
2008-06-01 117.207263041581
2008-07-01 115.237190930587
2008-08-01 114.252096712112
2008-09-01 112.823447311193
2008-10-01 112.138461949251
2008-11-01 112.208745056347
2008-12-01 111.06968068274
2009-01-01 108.193573858777
2009-02-01 105.201812761924
2009-03-01 102.468056002628
2009-04-01 99.7196946339472
2009-05-01 96.9861697788573
2009-06-01 93.8386925423244
2009-07-01 91.8499605086935
2009-08-01 89.7799896538839
2009-09-01 88.1629086197087
2009-10-01 86.8089969654109
2009-11-01 85.7168175140495
2009-12-01 85.0148938030233
2010-01-01 84.0438342324093
2010-02-01 83.505841296619
2010-03-01 82.809067181367
2010-04-01 82.4366839491416
2010-05-01 82.2837874022431
2010-06-01 82.4191830756844
2010-07-01 82.6134069782003
2010-08-01 82.8470856669587
2010-09-01 83.2452480690275
2010-10-01 83.6205557669751
2010-11-01 84.0122389208002
2010-12-01 84.186476849048
2011-01-01 83.9760804318052
2011-02-01 83.6442778237158
2011-03-01 82.881062099315
2011-04-01 82.4471311760541
2011-05-01 82.2909951759036
2011-06-01 82.7391068968204
2011-07-01 83.1781425041127
2011-08-01 83.5489324653459
2011-09-01 84.0514643719749
2011-10-01 84.7710905470716
2011-11-01 85.2546757491735
2011-12-01 85.7687241538922
2012-01-01 85.6447650745225
2012-02-01 85.509035139663
2012-03-01 85.1001579944344
2012-04-01 85.0726424173491
2012-05-01 85.4199706367486
2012-06-01 85.8430875444496
2012-07-01 86.3334892514475
2012-08-01 86.2906823076331
2012-09-01 86.457981229069
2012-10-01 87.1644012505983
2012-11-01 88.2988947241715
2012-12-01 89.2142091334801
2013-01-01 89.5447256013118
2013-02-01 89.3517397270168
2013-03-01 89.6395802133477
2013-04-01 90.3081337596664
2013-05-01 90.8282436942196
2013-06-01 91.396677874604
2013-07-01 92.2044032895501
2013-08-01 92.969953416989
2013-09-01 93.745208842148
2013-10-01 94.8661616380041
2013-11-01 95.8962381596237
2013-12-01 96.6989965172683
2014-01-01 97.1090747445774
2014-02-01 97.5039566553273
2014-03-01 97.6201000734201
2014-04-01 98.066185126625
2014-05-01 98.5332378539007
2014-06-01 99.1853539377856
2014-07-01 100.035523263896
2014-08-01 100.98267389547
2014-09-01 101.689571712819
2014-10-01 102.794692963375
2014-11-01 104.2991603222
2014-12-01 105.90945932119
2015-01-01 107.40648369949
2015-02-01 107.825649329449
2015-03-01 107.943317993919
2015-04-01 108.400427919759
2015-05-01 108.466411652653
2015-06-01 108.658720088645
2015-07-01 109.195306823304
2015-08-01 109.912160069004
2015-09-01 110.661204376504
2015-10-01 111.299211034179
2015-11-01 112.085270035613
2015-12-01 112.952570581868
2016-01-01 113.152570323406
2016-02-01 113.425549864332
2016-03-01 113.376605349405
2016-04-01 113.414426255976
2016-05-01 113.664418270614
2016-06-01 114.076193920951
2016-07-01 115.051647579829
2016-08-01 115.674451857271
2016-09-01 116.024961842672
2016-10-01 116.384909976345
2016-11-01 116.959227794317
2016-12-01 117.206636498124
2017-01-01 116.774828382571
2017-02-01 116.679458361187
2017-03-01 116.977459777306
2017-04-01 117.208401733705
2017-05-01 117.81051214518
2017-06-01 118.443678850648
2017-07-01 119.244495732176
2017-08-01 119.594704939117
2017-09-01 119.651266846686
2017-10-01 120.321699385749
2017-11-01 120.787325340169
2017-12-01 121.25483188238
2018-01-01 121.024057862204
2018-02-01 121.019543136713
2018-03-01 121.418682739724
2018-04-01 121.707034493173
2018-05-01 122.02274012828
2018-06-01 122.679051035845
2018-07-01 123.517017402471
2018-08-01 124.227175616286
2018-09-01 124.669348745986
2018-10-01 124.782103827267
2018-11-01 125.340986678991
2018-12-01 125.806112061592
2019-01-01 125.73556074193
2019-02-01 125.578137240319
2019-03-01 125.495806989464
2019-04-01 125.652266982954
2019-05-01 126.317009125442
2019-06-01 127.278324102316
2019-07-01 128.007634679236
2019-08-01 128.834015090421
2019-09-01 129.359404036296
2019-10-01 129.508314398021
2019-11-01 129.902865726465
2019-12-01 130.348781925119
2020-01-01 130.209155846533
2020-02-01 130.166867990782
2020-03-01 130.508139864829
2020-04-01 131.106327173345
2020-05-01 130.639942502667
2020-06-01 129.59367881787
2020-07-01 129.074579237963
2020-08-01 129.449011293987
2020-09-01 130.620557220272
2020-10-01 132.151275476099
2020-11-01 133.759467972933
2020-12-01 134.962853261609
2021-01-01 135.593054174613
2021-02-01 135.924295774593
2021-03-01 136.099996741958
2021-04-01 136.289078515918
2021-05-01 136.83864564844
2021-06-01 137.606437634484
2021-07-01 139.416987827674
2021-08-01 141.91088037716
2021-09-01 144.344380157159
2021-10-01 145.801406431013
2021-11-01 147.450281288987
2021-12-01 148.889877489398
2022-01-01 148.760106494384
2022-02-01 147.882655438245
2022-03-01 146.219110878354
2022-04-01 146.091724698231
2022-05-01 145.589413245152
2022-06-01 144.619941101499
2022-07-01 144.959011528906
2022-08-01 144.452285910443
2022-09-01 142.860378336384
2022-10-01 140.559961820736
2022-11-01 138.580020163091
2022-12-01 136.662747335372
2023-01-01 133.315511105101
2023-02-01 130.730001827456
2023-03-01 128.980591996164
2023-04-01 127.435933320653
2023-05-01 126.51426596951
2023-06-01 125.752845542092
2023-07-01 125.386328301805
2023-08-01 124.821942783898
2023-09-01 124.49338645795
2023-10-01 124.438745707477
2023-11-01 124.497495706172
2023-12-01 124.328840093467
2024-01-01 123.309415688621
2024-02-01 122.23559843197
2024-03-01 121.227275477145
2024-04-01 120.642225053416
2024-05-01 120.389681000807
2024-06-01 120.3407787988
2024-07-01 120.137531321537
2024-08-01 119.8434696806
2024-09-01 119.242635668507

Note: The data are deflated using the consumer price index. The dashed line at 100 indicates the index to January 2001 values.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 1.15. Income of commercial properties relative to prices increased but remained below its historical average

Percent

Date Percent
2001-01-01 8.57952870287195
2001-02-01 8.57372759001393
2001-03-01 8.56174882344937
2001-04-01 8.56814696677896
2001-05-01 8.5914598819301
2001-06-01 8.59446766157981
2001-07-01 8.60997007794677
2001-08-01 8.64091321193073
2001-09-01 8.65516475687364
2001-10-01 8.67893160287516
2001-11-01 8.7251790298169
2001-12-01 8.79219656796029
2002-01-01 8.81982296206724
2002-02-01 8.86071940097441
2002-03-01 8.88724548974653
2002-04-01 8.910460907552
2002-05-01 8.90500091778587
2002-06-01 8.89637985633793
2002-07-01 8.85227654056201
2002-08-01 8.79521852040676
2002-09-01 8.73434540871739
2002-10-01 8.6741951641558
2002-11-01 8.619124849144
2002-12-01 8.54525639293119
2003-01-01 8.49746696493073
2003-02-01 8.46484478387011
2003-03-01 8.45536565364959
2003-04-01 8.43476175688063
2003-05-01 8.39609020632615
2003-06-01 8.35367022228626
2003-07-01 8.32351718624526
2003-08-01 8.27249034278856
2003-09-01 8.25655261417553
2003-10-01 8.22817416035476
2003-11-01 8.1987300743151
2003-12-01 8.14795701109785
2004-01-01 8.11364598672438
2004-02-01 8.0519835184833
2004-03-01 7.98942705077713
2004-04-01 7.94373754014422
2004-05-01 7.91244488535224
2004-06-01 7.87588976025508
2004-07-01 7.84533049190948
2004-08-01 7.81880784828185
2004-09-01 7.76046799280255
2004-10-01 7.71497588417672
2004-11-01 7.65787422058602
2004-12-01 7.57523902896104
2005-01-01 7.52824315157445
2005-02-01 7.50215037919468
2005-03-01 7.46402982940135
2005-04-01 7.41398210045731
2005-05-01 7.35369641998857
2005-06-01 7.29633996544215
2005-07-01 7.23929056216206
2005-08-01 7.18944742192139
2005-09-01 7.1366903664989
2005-10-01 7.08612629110462
2005-11-01 7.05515883242686
2005-12-01 7.02420288276726
2006-01-01 6.97763425462239
2006-02-01 6.94635518668081
2006-03-01 6.90772583783302
2006-04-01 6.87378864602305
2006-05-01 6.84772152042212
2006-06-01 6.81647751964538
2006-07-01 6.77840621919957
2006-08-01 6.76397652926075
2006-09-01 6.74376762711879
2006-10-01 6.73622151087107
2006-11-01 6.72628964971723
2006-12-01 6.71186211191588
2007-01-01 6.69441525300309
2007-02-01 6.68298818059665
2007-03-01 6.66896991818429
2007-04-01 6.65025301416792
2007-05-01 6.6280932888778
2007-06-01 6.61730096938203
2007-07-01 6.61753122148194
2007-08-01 6.60712544993225
2007-09-01 6.60334058010251
2007-10-01 6.595735388695
2007-11-01 6.58717530622588
2007-12-01 6.5851054045705
2008-01-01 6.58982896551912
2008-02-01 6.60045946681304
2008-03-01 6.61791169478814
2008-04-01 6.64386900522336
2008-05-01 6.68436296820675
2008-06-01 6.72948245529122
2008-07-01 6.77140349198284
2008-08-01 6.82552854183036
2008-09-01 6.86995095346183
2008-10-01 6.89072007811503
2008-11-01 6.93522251560114
2008-12-01 6.9862654308752
2009-01-01 7.04470125377914
2009-02-01 7.05293373626682
2009-03-01 7.07947213937689
2009-04-01 7.08659046137192
2009-05-01 7.12275683022887
2009-06-01 7.17637744398725
2009-07-01 7.26086911904321
2009-08-01 7.33819826270294
2009-09-01 7.42287778573204
2009-10-01 7.52506125669788
2009-11-01 7.56801318708223
2009-12-01 7.63856007758112
2010-01-01 7.64779562437723
2010-02-01 7.67825045665524
2010-03-01 7.73854717350181
2010-04-01 7.81654328053864
2010-05-01 7.83035127883193
2010-06-01 7.81388017850142
2010-07-01 7.78387439193893
2010-08-01 7.79987899757034
2010-09-01 7.76259970388279
2010-10-01 7.72902647979515
2010-11-01 7.7041548355098
2010-12-01 7.64684219041306
2011-01-01 7.63621275469833
2011-02-01 7.60962481593851
2011-03-01 7.56164769346501
2011-04-01 7.54135670939455
2011-05-01 7.5089158321369
2011-06-01 7.4642639518527
2011-07-01 7.4337337321357
2011-08-01 7.38377485686406
2011-09-01 7.35074639285178
2011-10-01 7.34645088352537
2011-11-01 7.31732178735408
2011-12-01 7.28568806976861
2012-01-01 7.25113397086278
2012-02-01 7.25207595335593
2012-03-01 7.23019756451189
2012-04-01 7.19445554923846
2012-05-01 7.16437622577236
2012-06-01 7.14506696733588
2012-07-01 7.13080836825718
2012-08-01 7.12075326514465
2012-09-01 7.10762199656548
2012-10-01 7.07243096245896
2012-11-01 7.04949018790043
2012-12-01 7.01417243761507
2013-01-01 7.01755849714182
2013-02-01 7.00064531833579
2013-03-01 6.992784228224
2013-04-01 6.97621182870492
2013-05-01 6.97955663963082
2013-06-01 6.96059063708729
2013-07-01 6.95477980160882
2013-08-01 6.92735389185461
2013-09-01 6.92319030237323
2013-10-01 6.93092098094748
2013-11-01 6.94224112886023
2013-12-01 6.92695525227464
2014-01-01 6.90086986517264
2014-02-01 6.88439097617348
2014-03-01 6.86390412539401
2014-04-01 6.86513098578785
2014-05-01 6.84559335086125
2014-06-01 6.82499452691567
2014-07-01 6.79978007836371
2014-08-01 6.78446926646067
2014-09-01 6.74582053091852
2014-10-01 6.70961418051657
2014-11-01 6.68632480431734
2014-12-01 6.64491934496502
2015-01-01 6.62889929978166
2015-02-01 6.61851395094883
2015-03-01 6.59940504253585
2015-04-01 6.56126913059741
2015-05-01 6.53473792447107
2015-06-01 6.52617330853063
2015-07-01 6.50696695573126
2015-08-01 6.48589924061069
2015-09-01 6.47933515701207
2015-10-01 6.46010250281436
2015-11-01 6.43546532207525
2015-12-01 6.41966400545113
2016-01-01 6.42368749107699
2016-02-01 6.40939438689615
2016-03-01 6.3953691197718
2016-04-01 6.38942034944657
2016-05-01 6.37799161801227
2016-06-01 6.36126869992249
2016-07-01 6.33946246914736
2016-08-01 6.33326916722138
2016-09-01 6.31328383083105
2016-10-01 6.30109964670552
2016-11-01 6.30716673513558
2016-12-01 6.31578396102185
2017-01-01 6.29638164254175
2017-02-01 6.29739500943486
2017-03-01 6.30692158125951
2017-04-01 6.31201241579076
2017-05-01 6.30436430000531
2017-06-01 6.29021677122126
2017-07-01 6.28489778943767
2017-08-01 6.27938771108905
2017-09-01 6.27243976836755
2017-10-01 6.27180598963275
2017-11-01 6.26461514499475
2017-12-01 6.24614330445156
2018-01-01 6.24040184341579
2018-02-01 6.23038864730156
2018-03-01 6.21560727669152
2018-04-01 6.20643721969204
2018-05-01 6.19869006094717
2018-06-01 6.20077444930548
2018-07-01 6.20257710980589
2018-08-01 6.1951948779132
2018-09-01 6.20223689241697
2018-10-01 6.20036668054897
2018-11-01 6.19112325062749
2018-12-01 6.175452924398
2019-01-01 6.18314901571041
2019-02-01 6.17740815250876
2019-03-01 6.18148209363502
2019-04-01 6.17918941083046
2019-05-01 6.20166376240186
2019-06-01 6.18901842469302
2019-07-01 6.18665437185792
2019-08-01 6.17002182353988
2019-09-01 6.1518969951816
2019-10-01 6.13770778171884
2019-11-01 6.12145556479618
2019-12-01 6.11619286712631
2020-01-01 6.11315923137237
2020-02-01 6.11061194737104
2020-03-01 6.08634036563569
2020-04-01 6.07786987624262
2020-05-01 6.03560019489932
2020-06-01 6.02898813294305
2020-07-01 6.00320076659369
2020-08-01 5.99899040800879
2020-09-01 5.99516867142636
2020-10-01 5.97525807386358
2020-11-01 5.96572997557228
2020-12-01 5.94376132915829
2021-01-01 5.91945394004901
2021-02-01 5.9107906744514
2021-03-01 5.90105423460454
2021-04-01 5.89738612863927
2021-05-01 5.89249755120063
2021-06-01 5.88018873052513
2021-07-01 5.86509786548697
2021-08-01 5.84952059689558
2021-09-01 5.80710101032421
2021-10-01 5.7743383154331
2021-11-01 5.75181833682556
2021-12-01 5.69936849893009
2022-01-01 5.6777121203852
2022-02-01 5.65701806285792
2022-03-01 5.62867008626771
2022-04-01 5.59840028913532
2022-05-01 5.57237293054787
2022-06-01 5.54413587224441
2022-07-01 5.52778782651399
2022-08-01 5.51400112434573
2022-09-01 5.52150225131379
2022-10-01 5.534931275266
2022-11-01 5.54276036147507
2022-12-01 5.57079196510003
2023-01-01 5.59417262883864
2023-02-01 5.60228106001846
2023-03-01 5.65003356111448
2023-04-01 5.6894878356062
2023-05-01 5.74848572665863
2023-06-01 5.81899603750366
2023-07-01 5.87218010585264
2023-08-01 5.92312539065648
2023-09-01 5.97718578708468
2023-10-01 6.02576425583033
2023-11-01 6.07065270293191
2023-12-01 6.11548147556875
2024-01-01 6.12928781913226
2024-02-01 6.17094395692067
2024-03-01 6.21974260306372
2024-04-01 6.25580665169242
2024-05-01 6.30023286609514
2024-06-01 6.33049667830952
2024-07-01 6.3591844036853
2024-08-01 6.39446645582781
2024-09-01 6.42836373001969

Note: The data are a 12-month moving average of weighted capitalization rates in the industrial, retail, office, and multifamily sectors, based on national square footage in 2009.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Andrew C. Florance, Norm G. Miller, Ruijue Peng, and Jay Spivey (2010), "Slicing, Dicing, and Scoping the Size of the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 16 (May–August), pp. 101–18.

Figure 1.16. Banks reported having tightened lending standards for commercial real estate loans

This is a line chart titled "Banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial real estate loans". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2024. The data are quarterly. There is one line on the chart. The line shows "Net percentage of banks reporting." There is also a horizonal line marked at zero. Data points above zero to 100 are labeled "Tightening" and data points below zero to -100 are labeled "Easing". The series begins at about -7 in 1997 before a quick rise to around 40 in the middle of 1998. There is a dip and then an increase to 45 in 2000:Q1. There is a steady decrease and the series reaches its minimum of -25 in 2004:Q4. From there the series climbs to over 90 in 2008:Q4. From this peak, there is a decrease to below 0 starting in 2011 until 2015. The series has a small quick spike to around 27 in 2016, and remains roughly steady until another quick peak of 65 in 2020:Q2, before a dramatic decline to -17 in 2021:Q3. The series increased to 60 in mid-2023 before declining again to 15.94 in the final value for 2024:Q2.

Note: Banks' responses are weighted by their commercial real estate loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 1.17. Nominal house prices continued to increase in recent months

12-month percent change

Date Zillow CoreLogic Case-Shiller
2003-01-01 7.2633253437323 9.67166701880414 9.6272758502233
2003-02-01 7.34821224877627 9.62440465627546 9.75880944235376
2003-03-01 7.4226946196081 9.59009524826982 9.64979224963961
2003-04-01 7.50336554811996 9.50341885288598 9.46229343175909
2003-05-01 7.58896015990844 9.26351221624447 9.14810828710986
2003-06-01 7.65022220077093 8.99871712170229 8.91032453200359
2003-07-01 7.68648472198068 8.82397771281871 8.86086183199936
2003-08-01 7.72070815308109 8.97075630252101 9.01146476389
2003-09-01 7.78877467048205 9.37640648453682 9.22709163346615
2003-10-01 7.86424520720035 9.87079586402971 9.3863960678611
2003-11-01 7.91725640171263 10.300860679415 9.57833228048011
2003-12-01 7.94381869127308 10.8689405176387 9.81517892253243
2004-01-01 8.00181606663427 11.3549460965254 10.2311006658833
2004-02-01 8.12949204176172 11.7641192062634 10.6756019636874
2004-03-01 8.32778330250708 12.3234432619414 11.4221637924368
2004-04-01 8.56356038999628 12.993700595963 12.0239098781516
2004-05-01 8.84171023086703 13.4884239129216 12.5151699029126
2004-06-01 9.17549172121834 14.1374480494133 12.9775576071456
2004-07-01 9.54799693663054 14.4996223426489 13.1377645748236
2004-08-01 9.88596351055247 14.5627918150616 13.1278958593807
2004-09-01 10.1603455803733 14.7162573052379 13.1529034140648
2004-10-01 10.3782177777532 14.9850274910912 13.2772865632701
2004-11-01 10.5868627200476 15.2099250363398 13.4971535634503
2004-12-01 10.8234889364981 15.4790590053368 13.6360381006947
2005-01-01 11.0586381131808 15.5857753615466 13.8014355767181
2005-02-01 11.2633290113605 15.8337995393999 14.0111244103358
2005-03-01 11.4205472221992 16.2196705416501 14.2282065519156
2005-04-01 11.601766966608 16.3694511396918 14.2427144616227
2005-05-01 11.7358134402579 16.222338329076 14.2982337872455
2005-06-01 11.8333571834264 16.0077432853023 14.2838161041722
2005-07-01 11.8564324352367 15.8825718251028 14.2838387816726
2005-08-01 11.8760852570078 16.0244417765586 14.3674424652191
2005-09-01 11.8906302424719 16.2413446207221 14.5058345690155
2005-10-01 11.8919323394876 15.9603015243235 14.3634037108125
2005-11-01 11.8663777253135 15.5916699045166 14.0825396825397
2005-12-01 11.7646428868722 15.1770508722926 13.5123211697233
2006-01-01 11.5738432520279 14.6631997475847 12.9269968150878
2006-02-01 11.3166532482438 13.8060672217017 12.0854690298277
2006-03-01 11.0396665402329 12.5042880645952 11.0402235994653
2006-04-01 10.6988665564952 10.9503465463086 9.97005988023952
2006-05-01 10.2910111599717 9.31991666548562 8.74668239457386
2006-06-01 9.75908602039978 7.4788867202687 7.28403673991396
2006-07-01 9.10021321543752 5.89497990203311 6.03676048248134
2006-08-01 8.33508479398537 4.51904627215949 4.82605729877218
2006-09-01 7.48175877132779 3.33897188747233 3.71037666798039
2006-10-01 6.63394182638629 2.42393302457381 2.96503496503497
2006-11-01 5.81138423875375 1.45315414698391 2.19835262689225
2006-12-01 5.05505552618083 0.379712061754034 1.73227472100382
2007-01-01 4.39214389808885 -0.527679687047193 1.04518055632361
2007-02-01 3.78664818266825 -1.37375269014852 0.534435261707988
2007-03-01 3.17851930640375 -2.68327325734252 -0.306429548563613
2007-04-01 2.53238901915156 -3.54782997535927 -0.827661312278797
2007-05-01 1.84383499339452 -4.1892763651902 -1.35047185161081
2007-06-01 1.15464472568497 -4.50702202087843 -1.63099431048497
2007-07-01 0.482553638650529 -4.84799457216669 -1.96089052597368
2007-08-01 -0.128110867819098 -5.42190421509782 -2.26126565804457
2007-09-01 -0.676396210400604 -6.30312076082713 -2.75787187839304
2007-10-01 -1.1846298857375 -7.42542982244614 -3.54251562075524
2007-11-01 -1.6919965438392 -8.56398675977677 -4.6125360779829
2007-12-01 -2.19139619025982 -9.66531312793036 -5.39758773126671
2008-01-01 -2.72756043245956 -10.8515115709598 -6.37040280210157
2008-02-01 -3.3172886517001 -11.9592344662314 -7.27790869732011
2008-03-01 -3.97276162534869 -12.6173968785819 -7.84346012404632
2008-04-01 -4.67934997561601 -13.2128543579502 -8.13155438423105
2008-05-01 -5.3586106666193 -13.3282203691185 -8.17527076804661
2008-06-01 -5.99807705949875 -13.3555601702495 -8.26264184201829
2008-07-01 -6.58609869362451 -13.6757059171987 -8.44245538427537
2008-08-01 -7.22557810234874 -14.0792439072892 -8.85486018641811
2008-09-01 -7.82903668780975 -14.9070226501757 -9.60808396605628
2008-10-01 -8.391752350002 -15.7046041949607 -10.3475468934828
2008-11-01 -8.87292473543932 -16.2074994521949 -10.8986069878968
2008-12-01 -9.32851331860634 -16.9814960274154 -11.993769470405
2009-01-01 -9.7050257765784 -17.4690374494654 -12.6958148234744
2009-02-01 -9.90914222693299 -17.0651086002889 -12.748980436196
2009-03-01 -9.98765492158046 -16.2831895103432 -12.7337701012507
2009-04-01 -9.97954847000263 -15.0025967923432 -12.1802534066459
2009-05-01 -9.95217344584199 -13.296364294903 -11.2860735241289
2009-06-01 -9.85000393375859 -11.586845671021 -10.0516392458268
2009-07-01 -9.63945453888596 -10.0500689401015 -9.02781968499186
2009-08-01 -9.29552225736903 -8.68731416448352 -8.2846359873387
2009-09-01 -8.89048913838323 -7.47325308386976 -7.58446050274844
2009-10-01 -8.40776569967483 -5.85281401461101 -6.64111585825584
2009-11-01 -7.75534650201141 -3.88179131311207 -5.20920099955148
2009-12-01 -6.96855514717153 -2.23887522458876 -3.85447394296953
2010-01-01 -6.11701004137457 -1.42195885158862 -2.91912158543118
2010-02-01 -5.38646759896271 -1.44652450884689 -3.09578647879691
2010-03-01 -4.67244554689383 -0.319629148604963 -1.992901992902
2010-04-01 -3.93003009814643 0.766549965047725 -1.04804682183203
2010-05-01 -3.19360226487687 0.978594373460479 -0.762637510967129
2010-06-01 -2.60227506126865 0.65173092904386 -1.40186915887852
2010-07-01 -2.29249975066624 -0.195527312721502 -2.11608623548922
2010-08-01 -2.17256080003218 -1.232305367847 -2.81409703325146
2010-09-01 -2.20788880459506 -2.10856033959634 -3.35494219073714
2010-10-01 -2.36049412007012 -2.79053017521276 -3.6745406824147
2010-11-01 -2.71331984458353 -3.5791639477717 -4.13681222117075
2010-12-01 -3.16146798392391 -3.71247202174311 -4.1180882252676
2011-01-01 -3.64302228920798 -3.61663338705836 -4.11034482758621
2011-02-01 -4.0834524429851 -3.55379631905442 -3.71897937783993
2011-03-01 -4.53804429884518 -4.34702543675231 -4.05292479108635
2011-04-01 -5.07260407799276 -4.5421502971625 -4.29160935350757
2011-05-01 -5.60813464619363 -4.43407201247925 -4.31855277475517
2011-06-01 -6.02302820332402 -3.94253552827276 -3.89979688557887
2011-07-01 -6.14535919206957 -3.11389909058802 -3.53754404987802
2011-08-01 -6.06068926148396 -2.33932093612756 -3.17557877484122
2011-09-01 -5.81962118261597 -1.67833934106218 -3.07032708664686
2011-10-01 -5.5521689921402 -1.42168101838887 -3.29770139034444
2011-11-01 -5.22744892776963 -1.37959970666514 -3.63841489211677
2011-12-01 -4.90563433045522 -1.03174550228193 -3.88963947948517
2012-01-01 -4.53284266933878 -0.439795608051033 -3.50258918296893
2012-02-01 -4.0669119661393 0.528174371333283 -2.71545777971392
2012-03-01 -3.48002015167119 1.89676431626184 -1.3935259108724
2012-04-01 -2.7750567391919 2.67274575225281 -0.495832135671168
2012-05-01 -1.98687131825812 3.37353462089903 0.248773900063966
2012-06-01 -1.14730989985077 3.78231993376875 0.8665633366211
2012-07-01 -0.351399448269818 4.15839052666566 1.36293382042995
2012-08-01 0.328961082119654 4.68932706386594 2.05952884751022
2012-09-01 1.00440022089512 5.31612717603038 2.98922736676894
2012-10-01 1.70734229127124 5.99451533509055 4.00982587963298
2012-11-01 2.44029860645925 6.96968319689567 5.34172398653594
2012-12-01 3.16160761208428 7.83557552162523 6.43681562592484
2013-01-01 3.8610877433176 8.74486574382041 7.55757620928674
2013-02-01 4.4648375300575 9.39120116900031 8.33644301813567
2013-03-01 4.94274977731187 9.94441420489221 8.90622699838068
2013-04-01 5.3750255073912 9.98452519755966 9.0272261139597
2013-05-01 5.86449262763048 9.79927670011214 9.08961996596712
2013-06-01 6.37972584972844 9.46696807424383 9.26171684012015
2013-07-01 6.77928768387255 9.5238596203305 9.70335458830053
2013-08-01 7.2109345426314 9.66358519415089 10.1520387007602
2013-09-01 7.52747328092484 9.95910482211852 10.6054308672762
2013-10-01 7.8865397619369 10.1807578302918 10.8293970547374
2013-11-01 8.026396007266 10.0932735888286 10.6974159488747
2013-12-01 8.09049519011867 9.95318005432808 10.7187543445016
2014-01-01 8.00871943802803 9.91368010175845 10.4358672302682
2014-02-01 7.91831279637103 9.87815904143202 10.1336456324056
2014-03-01 7.80730537787892 9.02967202025051 8.93484725601514
2014-04-01 7.64407616171395 8.04198895027625 7.94859905941578
2014-05-01 7.44207067917948 7.09307486692553 7.03236708696217
2014-06-01 7.08958751991566 6.38095275110088 6.25199769865115
2014-07-01 6.81382427081263 5.79119525208566 5.59135708870356
2014-08-01 6.44361330167706 5.4169026997094 5.05677896982245
2014-09-01 6.11943658237458 5.13350952915154 4.74102837101523
2014-10-01 5.60451726034132 5.16219022202854 4.61297398934502
2014-11-01 5.30232335445724 5.12054157505971 4.57454819277108
2014-12-01 5.12205842948513 5.06735629541006 4.50778503264692
2015-01-01 5.09879238827725 5.04661197158482 4.31072347367761
2015-02-01 5.04174687720311 5.10221491353709 4.22843560392819
2015-03-01 4.98770633347357 5.19668560949584 4.28092815485793
2015-04-01 4.97461744075747 5.24273601857517 4.29526906792661
2015-05-01 4.94061588988683 5.2340182017568 4.35389846975953
2015-06-01 4.95076186166906 5.24828136321842 4.35593526261957
2015-07-01 4.98706276228281 5.13949957870474 4.40375755399989
2015-08-01 5.16545126617347 5.14500559082405 4.46700507614214
2015-09-01 5.42532830540549 5.35168490691385 4.66395599138961
2015-10-01 5.83624498770635 5.38777772088918 4.87088850278593
2015-11-01 6.10778883980192 5.4597356980913 5.09450945094508
2015-12-01 6.30644027197772 5.55307720703616 5.19644359005167
2016-01-01 6.46147027106528 5.67744136706463 5.28753609239653
2016-02-01 6.61443055465374 5.69721895926168 5.18514073096082
2016-03-01 6.6034384466838 5.65545714365555 5.06306520704426
2016-04-01 6.51101601870851 5.61575339238598 5.01264929105137
2016-05-01 6.36988143995515 5.46235231583131 4.94035496072157
2016-06-01 6.34107547502289 5.24211417879967 4.87748630729317
2016-07-01 6.17671394316045 5.23882311286129 4.88280130666513
2016-08-01 5.96535382875399 5.1989753249718 4.98485108329046
2016-09-01 5.73109949118013 5.20560393096886 5.0845521023766
2016-10-01 5.56774132827679 5.34387358104174 5.12454296160878
2016-11-01 5.52277887866185 5.46277500067058 5.18442388945987
2016-12-01 5.51066938976253 5.48933790066175 5.29952601222087
2017-01-01 5.45546327005603 5.53413896594061 5.49620065131692
2017-02-01 5.42942446148427 5.66414341342494 5.55714041193586
2017-03-01 5.57429405280396 5.71530184226253 5.62319497140269
2017-04-01 5.80717300514586 5.68971449379375 5.63056753879768
2017-05-01 5.96607884841949 5.70623985128589 5.6504380614395
2017-06-01 5.99927893459879 5.80399771094464 5.68962673849706
2017-07-01 6.07264745916579 5.8265785023778 5.73192721709197
2017-08-01 6.17909002055658 5.89421053205527 5.82085488701334
2017-09-01 6.26954122700061 5.96971493530156 5.90953571816897
2017-10-01 6.32619827257557 6.02270729658816 6.01597739253303
2017-11-01 6.37245790545932 6.09888941379685 6.09054391488438
2017-12-01 6.41531456033594 6.07251926532587 6.20966429849776
2018-01-01 6.45056653481577 6.0367620880935 6.20633631194152
2018-02-01 6.442340188921 6.2227468883852 6.42667963893844
2018-03-01 6.50658240056364 6.3874614211085 6.45507184216169
2018-04-01 6.4599951125909 6.32015039283956 6.40182454651534
2018-05-01 6.46746783556955 6.2029115974532 6.2509840969926
2018-06-01 6.35281090540833 5.9393007947852 6.12191823572247
2018-07-01 6.42796524255224 5.76869593446847 5.91214470284238
2018-08-01 6.46983779680613 5.54903633707684 5.64989194195739
2018-09-01 6.49846082367057 5.39192161311102 5.42066629023151
2018-10-01 6.30242026004595 5.22835680434037 5.26963297108878
2018-11-01 6.06834407889991 4.92123263392137 4.94269340974212
2018-12-01 5.83373212127718 4.63879557973364 4.51899509803921
2019-01-01 5.68357257601718 4.4549712960997 4.12013665799805
2019-02-01 5.62254536549152 4.16756080701363 3.81919756221431
2019-03-01 5.50212027170319 3.86983179343284 3.63114423851733
2019-04-01 5.3838495329771 3.77869166076535 3.52425103434524
2019-05-01 5.16366824608082 3.73466722519282 3.40841730883225
2019-06-01 5.0590207999209 3.68570998384979 3.21031220898888
2019-07-01 4.82164331713131 3.64971352131496 3.1179857519274
2019-08-01 4.63553632314539 3.73893233295445 3.1024741866355
2019-09-01 4.40871271722326 3.82037027567348 3.16501923357842
2019-10-01 4.4440807714544 3.92300468661628 3.21386832878847
2019-11-01 4.61256818710413 4.15845338298167 3.41296928327645
2019-12-01 4.84581061701549 4.41787562523533 3.68361913136938
2020-01-01 5.06252843343249 4.65170674587197 4.01586757431803
2020-02-01 5.19241109108271 4.91695447219496 4.29997064866453
2020-03-01 5.31793585288508 5.26677575691597 4.57792681148855
2020-04-01 5.40544688537177 5.25493811545628 4.59842064714945
2020-05-01 5.36796971042058 4.98438904439669 4.36610299035062
2020-06-01 5.23606117764545 5.19834598942168 4.37838351220439
2020-07-01 5.23577963769325 5.8050875030532 4.84077035915392
2020-08-01 5.601313334248 6.39289096717945 5.83872643960509
2020-09-01 6.48546233024385 7.1672029946805 7.04677396516732
2020-10-01 7.51169353168892 8.00056529191853 8.42140026420079
2020-11-01 8.57408195002277 8.72799484757407 9.53323903818953
2020-12-01 9.49283768253688 9.46604169413461 10.427366536305
2021-01-01 10.2796719050068 9.93923572792365 11.3188003201657
2021-02-01 11.1048183388214 10.458067428272 12.1945499742038
2021-03-01 11.9578879206843 11.4473436742807 13.4857567730843
2021-04-01 13.0454679741896 12.9078026428292 14.9979284629195
2021-05-01 14.5700588310712 14.6029821028577 16.9168802636397
2021-06-01 16.3773054233754 15.9765093519254 18.8171064604186
2021-07-01 17.8546931335208 16.5994306179239 19.8320996569778
2021-08-01 18.3645152031644 16.8226385105555 19.9642936844454
2021-09-01 17.8408008043297 16.8532445288367 19.6781305114638
2021-10-01 17.0345459419892 16.7580116615979 19.0722770984726
2021-11-01 16.3112349110094 16.7919979156052 18.8059573002755
2021-12-01 15.8769684994141 16.9928465150169 18.868407578085
2022-01-01 15.9600883126453 17.2748551556474 19.2530558727742
2022-02-01 16.3243824026726 17.9495437556257 20.049329041428
2022-03-01 16.9443808722699 18.7164512856141 20.7894844600958
2022-04-01 17.3962759583866 18.8637086997127 20.7397622192867
2022-05-01 17.4164339350742 18.3707040402692 19.9459755715628
2022-06-01 16.9832543647969 16.7082726431432 18.0042885587379
2022-07-01 16.0263171907521 14.6087222413332 15.638418079096
2022-08-01 14.9107419139948 12.5584826850391 12.9511124339609
2022-09-01 13.7477431320985 10.9541791576469 10.6841542939248
2022-10-01 12.630096228233 9.87342457985704 9.14340008770649
2022-11-01 11.3494218436015 8.57357597408207 7.554074127749
2022-12-01 9.90518348877623 7.07401382084127 5.65726182784119
2023-01-01 7.98521038199806 5.96732846579589 3.86238694804043
2023-02-01 5.92914125436514 5.00218796964219 2.24257408503674
2023-03-01 3.89183866512315 3.80243220911423 0.871245508170043
2023-04-01 2.24050896326334 2.73184087483903 0.0198925800676355
2023-05-01 1.04239853425239 2.11454925975765 -0.270896569731383
2023-06-01 0.239676892891287 2.15475216446872 0.107080277759746
2023-07-01 0.0380334580209894 2.94326378318817 1.10741971207089
2023-08-01 0.400293362477856 3.94723131459195 2.69771731611713
2023-09-01 1.12623060389359 4.69722571551557 4.06084612056053
2023-10-01 1.75310470506611 4.86608899479352 4.79809817183419
2023-11-01 2.24092407786288 5.18266871980754 5.18089335040086
2023-12-01 2.63984615283081 5.51320961258757 5.67710810627167
2024-01-01 3.12584697998086 5.71019476003177 6.16036060647453
2024-02-01 3.62268859131975 5.66023398646281 6.53588093048602
2024-03-01 4.09283501488954 5.37391460805938 6.52663417912956
2024-04-01 4.33924454804717 5.19136324813362 6.36767435693449
2024-05-01 4.25888194121616 4.85817289474166 5.98900379630842
2024-06-01 3.83266561375427 4.57497232689513 5.48766652620661
2024-07-01 3.34922085158128 4.05233704444982 4.84504864377294
2024-08-01 2.93529258831483 3.70883567187602 4.2497915196613
2024-09-01 2.70117346480811 3.44297194789818  
2024-10-01 2.59852945347595    

Note: The data extend through September 2024 for Zillow, August 2024 for CoreLogic, and July 2024 for Case-Shiller.

Source: Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; CoreLogic, Inc., Real Estate Data; S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

Figure 1.18. Model-based measures of house price valuations climbed to historically high levels

Percent

Date Owners' equivalent rent Market-based rents
1979 Q1 -2.565001  
1979 Q2 -1.846259  
1979 Q3 -1.851296  
1979 Q4 0.6787511  
1980 Q1 -1.90781  
1980 Q2 -3.449202  
1980 Q3 -3.511167  
1980 Q4 0.4357757  
1981 Q1 5.059133  
1981 Q2 0.0491614  
1981 Q3 -1.599397  
1981 Q4 0.6031334  
1982 Q1 -0.7408153  
1982 Q2 1.150546  
1982 Q3 5.401829  
1982 Q4 2.100387  
1983 Q1 6.114104  
1983 Q2 5.002481  
1983 Q3 4.864959  
1983 Q4 -4.422025  
1984 Q1 -2.911576  
1984 Q2 -3.916312  
1984 Q3 -1.455452  
1984 Q4 -0.2502398  
1985 Q1 1.866167  
1985 Q2 6.360666  
1985 Q3 8.818207  
1985 Q4 6.415618  
1986 Q1 7.749502  
1986 Q2 5.451196  
1986 Q3 4.792911  
1986 Q4 3.052768  
1987 Q1 0.6859757  
1987 Q2 -2.777081  
1987 Q3 -2.966594  
1987 Q4 -3.290956  
1988 Q1 -5.97879  
1988 Q2 -0.310719  
1988 Q3 -0.9591621  
1988 Q4 2.2577  
1989 Q1 -0.5636297  
1989 Q2 1.911921  
1989 Q3 2.486763  
1989 Q4 2.291734  
1990 Q1 3.107725  
1990 Q2 -0.0491614  
1990 Q3 -1.952643  
1990 Q4 -2.300888  
1991 Q1 -0.184756  
1991 Q2 0.2578838  
1991 Q3 -1.066462  
1991 Q4 -2.690294  
1992 Q1 -3.640403  
1992 Q2 -4.559669  
1992 Q3 -3.471179  
1992 Q4 -5.552052  
1993 Q1 -4.924346  
1993 Q2 -4.79506  
1993 Q3 -5.983934  
1993 Q4 -4.988873  
1994 Q1 -5.909148  
1994 Q2 -8.162193  
1994 Q3 -9.823048  
1994 Q4 -8.943007  
1995 Q1 -8.319573  
1995 Q2 -4.221062  
1995 Q3 -2.299574  
1995 Q4 -1.315622  
1996 Q1 -1.165947  
1996 Q2 -5.02145  
1996 Q3 -6.120914  
1996 Q4 -7.048816  
1997 Q1 -6.470364  
1997 Q2 -3.747792  
1997 Q3 -3.437272  
1997 Q4 -4.57607  
1998 Q1 -3.906019  
1998 Q2 -1.29475  
1998 Q3 -3.957438  
1998 Q4 -2.698151  
1999 Q1 -2.897687  
1999 Q2 -2.025099  
1999 Q3 -2.455899  
1999 Q4 -3.68469  
2000 Q1 -1.137268  
2000 Q2 0.5635211  
2000 Q3 3.931739  
2000 Q4 5.655191  
2001 Q1 7.258581  
2001 Q2 7.447455  
2001 Q3 6.145663  
2001 Q4 5.361999  
2002 Q1 3.984453  
2002 Q2 5.065742  
2002 Q3 5.400857  
2002 Q4 6.612372  
2003 Q1 8.426496  
2003 Q2 10.21646  
2003 Q3 9.055688  
2003 Q4 8.300245  
2004 Q1 9.74547 9.953115
2004 Q2 10.25209 9.470724
2004 Q3 14.24618 13.54828
2004 Q4 17.76386 16.91501
2005 Q1 17.96577 17.93131
2005 Q2 22.87805 21.24828
2005 Q3 24.74067 22.75623
2005 Q4 25.39919 23.13535
2006 Q1 26.85112 23.81525
2006 Q2 26.81857 24.40542
2006 Q3 26.41184 25.36624
2006 Q4 27.56176 26.72807
2007 Q1 26.81523 25.75294
2007 Q2 27.86674 25.39028
2007 Q3 26.04417 24.35907
2007 Q4 22.58695 21.9408
2008 Q1 20.35649 20.04313
2008 Q2 18.04453 17.08277
2008 Q3 14.41143 15.05392
2008 Q4 9.695989 12.18679
2009 Q1 3.92785 9.870661
2009 Q2 3.060189 9.673535
2009 Q3 0.0990314 7.03862
2009 Q4 -2.303842 3.9504
2010 Q1 -4.741841 1.516068
2010 Q2 -2.842746 3.239018
2010 Q3 -4.434876 0.6344807
2010 Q4 -6.53049 -2.33422
2011 Q1 -7.014686 -5.005433
2011 Q2 -10.9562 -8.152815
2011 Q3 -14.61428 -11.26777
2011 Q4 -16.87321 -13.64155
2012 Q1 -13.45711 -11.81546
2012 Q2 -15.11429 -13.01952
2012 Q3 -17.81213 -14.6671
2012 Q4 -17.33035 -14.01034
2013 Q1 -17.38819 -14.2023
2013 Q2 -16.19604 -12.97365
2013 Q3 -15.82596 -13.12214
2013 Q4 -14.71091 -11.6877
2014 Q1 -12.2665 -10.44047
2014 Q2 -11.71275 -10.03024
2014 Q3 -7.276514 -7.559587
2014 Q4 -7.319134 -7.537237
2015 Q1 -6.462198 -7.277365
2015 Q2 -6.375862 -7.473856
2015 Q3 -6.083931 -7.637629
2015 Q4 -5.727662 -7.372243
2016 Q1 -5.684426 -6.840797
2016 Q2 -5.151497 -5.997984
2016 Q3 -4.881206 -5.497427
2016 Q4 -4.443706 -5.073308
2017 Q1 -4.476563 -4.839973
2017 Q2 -4.275687 -4.119552
2017 Q3 -4.329782 -3.555486
2017 Q4 -1.134848 -1.123519
2018 Q1 0.7093216 0.2877116
2018 Q2 0.6352795 -0.2013702
2018 Q3 1.29151 0.3726825
2018 Q4 1.921449 0.420151
2019 Q1 3.976258 2.423801
2019 Q2 4.933201 2.557945
2019 Q3 4.662222 2.261549
2019 Q4 6.652869 3.465984
2020 Q1 5.44045 3.225473
2020 Q2 5.127939 4.648054
2020 Q3 4.447382 2.925568
2020 Q4 8.174383 3.931916
2021 Q1 10.40194 5.051445
2021 Q2 11.2088 5.417049
2021 Q3 13.69877 6.090877
2021 Q4 15.47243 5.322904
2022 Q1 21.43061 9.849258
2022 Q2 25.23899 12.30542
2022 Q3 22.62253 12.11545
2022 Q4 21.39821 12.13354
2023 Q1 19.89028 12.73608
2023 Q2 24.77108 15.96927
2023 Q3 25.19941 17.38216
2023 Q4 26.98014 17.92481
2024 Q1 25.50573 17.72994
2024 Q2 25.83888 18.4526
2024 Q3 26.38063 20.16497

Note: The owners' equivalent rent value for 2024:Q3 is based on monthly data through August 2024. The data for the market-based rents model begin in 2004:Q1 and extend through 2024:Q3. Valuation is measured as the deviation from the long-run relationship between the price-to-rent ratio and the real 10-year Treasury yield.

Source: For house prices, Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 1.19. House price-to-rent ratios remained elevated across geographic areas

Jan. 2010 = 100

Date Median Bottom Line Middle 80% Top Line Middle 80%
1996-01-01 81.968092066235 72.6548642787967 104.969607309315
1996-02-01 81.6689463128611 72.6255829630121 104.797578652227
1996-03-01 81.5252655412249 72.3216707424034 104.561281777123
1996-04-01 81.7334963137164 72.2240011263377 105.018768156958
1996-05-01 81.8119495859217 72.0984592094358 104.590749977216
1996-06-01 81.8859469745472 71.9924563505646 104.457271203013
1996-07-01 81.9094942593421 71.9352330355431 104.370955993712
1996-08-01 81.9694042450012 71.7650215427101 104.381512690644
1996-09-01 81.9964305480157 71.6386136802764 104.191717777156
1996-10-01 82.0232989415896 71.4166318923228 104.22061943786
1996-11-01 82.1049232485233 71.3795290158028 103.995611304582
1996-12-01 82.1660643532637 71.4569412683915 103.98709545609
1997-01-01 82.2822778551424 71.5053365615872 103.530684890522
1997-02-01 82.3792709793559 71.5086037714939 103.597114782055
1997-03-01 82.6113795972344 71.6238718726118 103.355688378148
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2009-12-01 100.057519138741 99.5216044957976 100.602252350327
2010-01-01 100 100 100
2010-02-01 99.9389298422213 99.5548144212884 100.553592822565
2010-03-01 100.104181219612 99.4243977094995 100.815083647008
2010-04-01 99.9377240192857 98.9674030076116 101.12962451032
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2012-08-01 89.3386509269413 83.5645173549536 93.4143097521938
2012-09-01 90.1966781690611 83.7872646480708 93.3349686928422
2012-10-01 90.7086202307124 83.9761597258362 94.0561738584287
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2014-02-01 99.2109166966764 87.4622087410533 110.465862243843
2014-03-01 99.8010232211145 87.5840007432202 110.745148003884
2014-04-01 100.11454763125 87.9518631038947 111.021000561644
2014-05-01 100.550690687819 88.1883715163642 111.583564341007
2014-06-01 100.718744517972 88.4179198354466 112.023313910599
2014-07-01 101.027299173707 88.7793355197154 112.447827500462
2014-08-01 101.06781851273 88.9158963091242 113.429232060717
2014-09-01 101.297347998636 89.0093250249561 114.196678859692
2014-10-01 101.824568256168 88.9159873258393 114.883862182562
2014-11-01 102.240335049858 89.0666633955453 115.182494581928
2014-12-01 102.431714341803 89.2802814571721 115.933613868713
2015-01-01 102.37829149947 89.2904532988095 116.64320450228
2015-02-01 102.70192182649 88.7415395522575 117.127620921832
2015-03-01 102.630335581825 88.6803239611677 117.450075904934
2015-04-01 102.806964711034 88.5546840558777 118.065233698841
2015-05-01 103.028000778238 88.5489785170276 119.07875892053
2015-06-01 103.133826046154 88.3633820041078 119.588258380249
2015-07-01 103.643490055722 88.5212568344459 120.255664638565
2015-08-01 104.264110778887 88.9715277522405 120.887786503894
2015-09-01 104.837495086316 89.2586580780407 121.538711174842
2015-10-01 105.25456969932 89.7358496438409 122.311689500684
2015-11-01 105.663919692714 89.6604610852194 122.985887537102
2015-12-01 106.086254683995 89.5821711808061 123.337239224339
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2016-02-01 106.870470083353 89.6874859227572 124.26060079242
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2016-04-01 107.561941788337 89.6180791996309 124.60926403963
2016-05-01 107.758356487627 89.3509794168108 125.394007037226
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2016-07-01 108.23614725909 90.0132726618175 126.55075064427
2016-08-01 108.174202558262 90.0478559830339 126.746033151706
2016-09-01 108.010332937857 90.2975459441298 127.084118817324
2016-10-01 108.094870393489 90.5705624228081 127.412603652799
2016-11-01 108.417592112371 90.7810522894475 127.0772450028
2016-12-01 109.118423288468 90.9665328100954 127.020989634356
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2017-02-01 110.27275130148 90.7159814160613 127.593490920686
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2017-04-01 111.414671706485 90.4860421912234 128.244946061538
2017-05-01 111.901300364802 90.7440458325837 128.482854002894
2017-06-01 112.033370445994 91.1918500664795 129.13404645884
2017-07-01 112.481552617958 91.4368182988879 129.642750371678
2017-08-01 113.05879395274 91.6410154795617 130.130744106971
2017-09-01 113.605721977045 91.8972896954299 130.606722313456
2017-10-01 114.013478827226 92.1527184249446 131.033232196237
2017-11-01 114.205933549289 92.4423728471237 131.623521439774
2017-12-01 114.301621202025 92.8050798030086 132.179861489481
2018-01-01 114.556008659908 93.0461633831127 132.753926553778
2018-02-01 114.92960051846 93.2008172595976 133.104849347046
2018-03-01 115.486611531633 93.4525970552035 133.555986229964
2018-04-01 115.964380526828 93.4468918891928 133.837988888657
2018-05-01 116.445402666705 93.5216007351921 134.334038677846
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2018-09-01 116.925372178017 93.8941041728652 135.619310505947
2018-10-01 116.763033342149 94.0194985154812 135.493603194847
2018-11-01 116.463416369518 94.0820977602933 135.35684346969
2018-12-01 115.961799808981 93.9077190692809 135.467687875114
2019-01-01 115.897663999844 93.9957249564911 135.320903701322
2019-02-01 115.513190257028 94.0570532353844 134.786144194508
2019-03-01 115.018232932783 94.0545813651358 134.395343463526
2019-04-01 114.612734620647 94.0780883991948 133.961470840161
2019-05-01 114.269939323638 94.249085244625 133.568803591191
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2019-07-01 113.923506170861 94.5360460000582 132.88693501467
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2019-09-01 113.639107763339 94.7125077980947 133.598923777393
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2020-02-01 114.295015194323 94.9234039412852 135.751111201054
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2020-09-01 116.599436672979 95.0510939126188 136.766472947694
2020-10-01 118.556341411456 95.9680732920728 138.316983899708
2020-11-01 120.688132186884 97.1839723290043 140.317636033054
2020-12-01 122.3422426864 98.2904383348971 141.519585212978
2021-01-01 124.186748167648 99.2015902759638 142.90260321486
2021-02-01 125.83708743669 100.07601777072 144.453786606938
2021-03-01 126.923313171465 100.847300407213 145.761187796565
2021-04-01 128.157611879187 101.376841243732 147.29433799287
2021-05-01 129.798674145555 102.13718269607 149.261462852614
2021-06-01 131.849251207694 102.901928936495 151.29716497147
2021-07-01 133.24621483368 103.478745168833 153.901632927188
2021-08-01 134.44174219649 104.267653088142 155.960575099555
2021-09-01 134.788565383405 104.102395848392 156.727141664108
2021-10-01 135.13380062254 104.473944479744 157.653378289807
2021-11-01 136.119820825478 104.191183125397 159.197103494032
2021-12-01 137.12591775137 104.68070417875 160.612800016444
2022-01-01 138.546102115161 105.464103780015 161.874775234892
2022-02-01 141.313208357652 106.069047447488 164.514470637444
2022-03-01 143.685055901059 107.05167022305 167.955996841375
2022-04-01 145.690681770262 107.916032311962 170.717813644955
2022-05-01 147.074948466568 108.351480758018 171.948807113918
2022-06-01 147.280174666343 108.445381889005 172.589328858638
2022-07-01 146.889899396488 107.959664490497 170.428759350104
2022-08-01 145.462323450575 107.347610603984 167.384573648713
2022-09-01 143.612798430757 106.504613186215 163.885464960796
2022-10-01 142.01102408184 105.2520616432 161.503147113056
2022-11-01 140.02806569937 104.732581577756 158.662023172528
2022-12-01 138.292006243196 103.974471972957 156.276127373573
2023-01-01 135.89465277109 103.519891699268 153.909189363021
2023-02-01 134.26129083774 102.823714010612 152.222970692067
2023-03-01 132.914942399553 102.058003693393 149.517619451352
2023-04-01 132.150554892335 101.91549690567 147.886458696885
2023-05-01 131.638772831936 101.956858410728 146.417083285439
2023-06-01 131.483306639789 102.299105178942 146.003100629186
2023-07-01 132.174195888774 102.868054415328 146.940434403633
2023-08-01 133.098164474508 103.40109557408 148.760900283457
2023-09-01 133.946285551486 103.801922586041 150.562406907714
2023-10-01 135.170019192524 103.908431619874 151.807077562072
2023-11-01 135.118099817751 103.81804007778 151.400090575301
2023-12-01 134.981577514663 103.861336904655 151.027246028789
2024-01-01 134.775929856826 103.667091945546 150.493254536916
2024-02-01 134.654425131438 103.69716442562 150.459722022165
2024-03-01 134.614255819879 103.711005486557 150.305463767749
2024-04-01 134.619603737104 103.615900825021 150.253066076236
2024-05-01 133.717277452243 103.383971199334 150.675459967502
2024-06-01 133.54590741669 102.876251810655 150.6784311487
2024-07-01 133.355591490265 102.508889975031 150.336838096822
2024-08-01 132.85861538111 102.219989834022 149.423866144614

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted. Percentiles are based on 19 large metropolitan statistical areas.

Source: For house prices, Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 1.20. Inflation-adjusted farmland prices rose further from already-elevated levels

2023 dollars per acre

Date Midwest index United States
1967 3025.379138  
1968 3173.297307  
1969 3111.826444  
1970 2976.517549  
1971 2782.110632  
1972 2786.487419  
1973 2996.795136  
1974 3618.146919  
1975 4030.747994  
1976 4735.26991  
1977 5682.806762  
1978 5934.423065  
1979 6021.945671  
1980 6026.593789  
1981 5733.10871  
1982 5224.523077  
1983 4435.48434  
1984 3898.567429  
1985 2780.081361  
1986 2208.022704  
1987 1878.483441  
1988 2057.682355  
1989 2251.452079  
1990 2260.315034  
1991 2211.154003  
1992 2217.82709  
1993 2220.180033  
1994 2692.336562  
1995 2598.003012  
1996 2774.401045  
1997 2553.16891 2410.65225
1998 2698.476925 2504.773815
1999 2724.445767 2560.766683
2000 2688.326895 2583.534404
2001 2669.177044 2598.812704
2002 2709.427217 2693.518491
2003 2745.028662 2748.930679
2004 2868.856777 2822.672262
2005 3314.821171 3214.494085
2006 3575.169067 3613.022496
2007 3961.772716 3717.938681
2008 4420.776398 3906.887181
2009 4201.320111 3791.635478
2010 4425.143737 3772.498561
2011 5135.763764 4036.973698
2012 6014.299037 4446.033913
2013 6886.476665 4983.477727
2014 7408.56964 5264.668768
2015 7114.01307 5271.155487
2016 6779.531419 5129.013533
2017 6570.487097 5009.542318
2018 6411.755341 4914.538012
2019 6222.602545 4862.767447
2020 6027.392966 4779.228763
2021 6213.031541 4891.569709
2022 6662.373024 5143.93652
2023 6886.767206 5320
2024 6959.762982 5402.959934

Note: The data for the U.S. begin in 1997. Midwest index is a weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states derived from staff calculations. Values are given in real terms. The median value is 3596.66 2023 dollars per acre.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis staff calculations.

Figure 1.21. Farmland prices relative to rents increased to historical highs

Ratio

Date Midwest index United States
1967 14.13418315  
1968 14.19879016  
1969 14.19528763  
1970 13.99434936  
1971 13.50686423  
1972 13.4008375  
1973 14.17058401  
1974 14.52808886  
1975 14.60469881  
1976 16.1613832  
1977 18.02016694  
1978 19.56115904  
1979 20.57529648  
1980 21.54630274  
1981 21.24967971  
1982 19.55679439  
1983 17.41888327  
1984 15.94691892  
1985 12.99502491  
1986 11.89889043  
1987 11.72150084  
1988 12.5228119  
1989 13.29508303  
1990 13.40922896  
1991 13.50559036  
1992 13.73775651  
1993 13.88773898  
1994 17.97416274  
1995 17.34956535  
1996 18.36206647  
1997 16.6669417  
1998 17.46987848 20.15037594
1999 18.1991863 20.74074074
2000 17.83993333 20.85714286
2001 17.9534721 21.26760563
2002 18.17789453 22.20670391
2003 18.63356997 22.73972603
2004 19.44520488 22.87581699
2005 22.49879125 26.41025641
2006 24.60507286 30.06289308
2007 25.78446123 32.64516129
2008 26.32248824 32.28070175
2009 24.43030238 26.96969697
2010 25.43891798 26.47058824
2011 27.83627176 26.84684685
2012 28.47719386 26.8
2013 30.44885464 28.01470588
2014 32.18539376 29.0070922
2015 31.64414073 28.47222222
2016 32.1020429 29.70588235
2017 32.28286079 29.63235294
2018 31.88732337 29.34782609
2019 31.69066141 29.14285714
2020 31.22402639 29.20863309
2021 32.63138601 30.85106383
2022 35.18499877 33.37837838
2023 35.8479229 34.32258065
2024 36.3370819 34.8125

Note: The data for the U.S. begin in 1998. Midwest index is a weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states derived from staff calculations. The median value is 18.19 ratio.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis staff calculations.

Figure 2.1. The total debt of businesses and households relative to GDP declined to its lowest level in 20 years

Ratio

Date Private Nonfinancial-Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratio
1980 Q1 0.97690406840244
1980 Q2 0.986460409701747
1980 Q3 0.985762211782811
1980 Q4 0.970645008619832
1981 Q1 0.945661073565572
1981 Q2 0.962580931987408
1981 Q3 0.956740596618607
1981 Q4 0.971714066430994
1982 Q1 0.992005624404835
1982 Q2 0.994518561380468
1982 Q3 0.998200706884249
1982 Q4 1.00177513349504
1983 Q1 0.998792254189179
1983 Q2 0.992476070512075
1983 Q3 0.989277018003193
1983 Q4 0.990527592914971
1984 Q1 0.994903601639077
1984 Q2 1.00582127747873
1984 Q3 1.0173845871335
1984 Q4 1.03731977743554
1985 Q1 1.05476165485626
1985 Q2 1.0692320892261
1985 Q3 1.07819825644044
1985 Q4 1.10435602847285
1986 Q1 1.11505106375616
1986 Q2 1.13359858668438
1986 Q3 1.15175135193088
1986 Q4 1.17386020821332
1987 Q1 1.17852862124843
1987 Q2 1.18574100737387
1987 Q3 1.19426088968186
1987 Q4 1.18912562594923
1988 Q1 1.20281067503034
1988 Q2 1.20499337576849
1988 Q3 1.2096593968958
1988 Q4 1.2114270019737
1989 Q1 1.21102515163067
1989 Q2 1.21535839078137
1989 Q3 1.21740292325426
1989 Q4 1.22944938585272
1990 Q1 1.22831760036821
1990 Q2 1.22658450597883
1990 Q3 1.2283274337519
1990 Q4 1.24203307624169
1991 Q1 1.24132245975181
1991 Q2 1.23189717672766
1991 Q3 1.21616639034525
1991 Q4 1.21021144409645
1992 Q1 1.20013792015278
1992 Q2 1.1847809910516
1992 Q3 1.17579794601228
1992 Q4 1.16360952418444
1993 Q1 1.16403829787803
1993 Q2 1.16434689751223
1993 Q3 1.16769610081112
1993 Q4 1.16216217372249
1994 Q1 1.16464380214209
1994 Q2 1.16126095308483
1994 Q3 1.16525625505127
1994 Q4 1.16684841685526
1995 Q1 1.17558086375038
1995 Q2 1.18723790551559
1995 Q3 1.18994523712682
1995 Q4 1.19393596931575
1996 Q1 1.2009556371075
1996 Q2 1.19730979329851
1996 Q3 1.19961204750764
1996 Q4 1.19584126484863
1997 Q1 1.20121492516432
1997 Q2 1.20048551296687
1997 Q3 1.20674369082688
1997 Q4 1.21412969587745
1998 Q1 1.23045718255723
1998 Q2 1.24997862247106
1998 Q3 1.25537980793319
1998 Q4 1.26180130796339
1999 Q1 1.27894142619778
1999 Q2 1.28953361305283
1999 Q3 1.30370585175891
1999 Q4 1.30313260308991
2000 Q1 1.32312629078124
2000 Q2 1.32047284664296
2000 Q3 1.33717235574349
2000 Q4 1.34321673663133
2001 Q1 1.35457364789755
2001 Q2 1.36727134635343
2001 Q3 1.39695386496723
2001 Q4 1.40371100134938
2002 Q1 1.41063291139241
2002 Q2 1.41438361197194
2002 Q3 1.42345575944734
2002 Q4 1.43880743118907
2003 Q1 1.44652079817586
2003 Q2 1.4622403574864
2003 Q3 1.45565875534261
2003 Q4 1.45408662450984
2004 Q1 1.46814742414673
2004 Q2 1.47492502774954
2004 Q3 1.48367911503549
2004 Q4 1.49519270605579
2005 Q1 1.49734579455649
2005 Q2 1.51724908563688
2005 Q3 1.52675877498603
2005 Q4 1.54276398049745
2006 Q1 1.55619339723924
2006 Q2 1.58034137535497
2006 Q3 1.59886607160624
2006 Q4 1.61547142503041
2007 Q1 1.62790743807653
2007 Q2 1.64920835751387
2007 Q3 1.66762427135129
2007 Q4 1.68162109860525
2008 Q1 1.70730460153165
2008 Q2 1.69950687155621
2008 Q3 1.71074412448783
2008 Q4 1.72719735869058
2009 Q1 1.73884501467753
2009 Q2 1.73713031341673
2009 Q3 1.71651370673523
2009 Q4 1.67607969805168
2010 Q1 1.65789208113184
2010 Q2 1.62510269393725
2010 Q3 1.60443003176611
2010 Q4 1.58027565153447
2011 Q1 1.57751353487958
2011 Q2 1.55855389467447
2011 Q3 1.55103970684472
2011 Q4 1.53697443022488
2012 Q1 1.52021360642562
2012 Q2 1.51203980474008
2012 Q3 1.51068427721098
2012 Q4 1.51126210604005
2013 Q1 1.49707947212757
2013 Q2 1.50018241120777
2013 Q3 1.4925339619265
2013 Q4 1.48915633469228
2014 Q1 1.50370897614558
2014 Q2 1.48953872099154
2014 Q3 1.47299478528359
2014 Q4 1.48083446929862
2015 Q1 1.48399341014704
2015 Q2 1.4874302125233
2015 Q3 1.49136853449798
2015 Q4 1.49675638428941
2016 Q1 1.50979024916046
2016 Q2 1.50845604531325
2016 Q3 1.51059282930246
2016 Q4 1.50212848725985
2017 Q1 1.50896432816372
2017 Q2 1.51641583211338
2017 Q3 1.51247496838279
2017 Q4 1.50908744823599
2018 Q1 1.50190803054207
2018 Q2 1.51061614762261
2018 Q3 1.51020629624982
2018 Q4 1.51518044358921
2019 Q1 1.51792393755092
2019 Q2 1.51300031806803
2019 Q3 1.50799646049663
2019 Q4 1.50353589261439
2020 Q1 1.56244706918928
2020 Q2 1.7349516770231
2020 Q3 1.60538214510413
2020 Q4 1.59021072631742
2021 Q1 1.56968084582845
2021 Q2 1.56496052588956
2021 Q3 1.55133521285916
2021 Q4 1.52625890955973
2022 Q1 1.5289300533549
2022 Q2 1.52129310820195
2022 Q3 1.51310955982776
2022 Q4 1.49655590087587
2023 Q1 1.48577803731721
2023 Q2 1.47840684436753
2023 Q3 1.45898312614013
2023 Q4 1.44715668643922
2024 Q1 1.44266564617351
2024 Q2 1.43546192032633

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Figure 2.2. Both business and household debt-to-GDP ratios continued to edge down

Ratio

Date Nonfinancial business Household
1980 Q1 0.497089082464168 0.479814985938272
1980 Q2 0.503135465254283 0.483324944447463
1980 Q3 0.502212335938985 0.483549875843826
1980 Q4 0.494959232062895 0.475685776556937
1981 Q1 0.483995613605505 0.461665459960067
1981 Q2 0.496222963119425 0.466357968867983
1981 Q3 0.497047944111054 0.459692652507553
1981 Q4 0.506418521234643 0.46529554519635
1982 Q1 0.520148110956167 0.471857513448668
1982 Q2 0.524987604937857 0.469530956442611
1982 Q3 0.532621656514142 0.465579050370107
1982 Q4 0.532162097902139 0.469613035592896
1983 Q1 0.535836654034519 0.462955600154661
1983 Q2 0.530769677840467 0.461706392671608
1983 Q3 0.528241107303278 0.461035910699915
1983 Q4 0.526836334619863 0.463691258295109
1984 Q1 0.53095428057033 0.463949321068747
1984 Q2 0.539386587343728 0.466434690135004
1984 Q3 0.548403011568832 0.468981575564669
1984 Q4 0.560616465845545 0.476703311589998
1985 Q1 0.563395354510743 0.491366300345518
1985 Q2 0.570321174922646 0.49891091430345
1985 Q3 0.571316774312234 0.506881482128207
1985 Q4 0.580125892926657 0.524230135546188
1986 Q1 0.586240492788872 0.528810570967285
1986 Q2 0.597604359629863 0.535994227054522
1986 Q3 0.606116672009209 0.54563467992167
1986 Q4 0.617304906554346 0.556555301658978
1987 Q1 0.622311079938909 0.556217541309521
1987 Q2 0.622555220799973 0.563185786573897
1987 Q3 0.626249064653791 0.568011825028073
1987 Q4 0.626274112948218 0.562851513001014
1988 Q1 0.632230398244008 0.570580276786327
1988 Q2 0.633170752572815 0.571822623195677
1988 Q3 0.634549063145073 0.575110333750723
1988 Q4 0.636912911896248 0.57451409007745
1989 Q1 0.636353838228802 0.574671313401871
1989 Q2 0.637711464645736 0.577646926135638
1989 Q3 0.635508874321488 0.581894048932773
1989 Q4 0.640293414035301 0.589155971817414
1990 Q1 0.635767255986641 0.592550344381572
1990 Q2 0.632316492472854 0.594268013505977
1990 Q3 0.630873951558042 0.59745348219386
1990 Q4 0.634807742492464 0.607225333749228
1991 Q1 0.627908240651726 0.613414219100083
1991 Q2 0.618510421811361 0.613386754916301
1991 Q3 0.605622809255073 0.610543581090172
1991 Q4 0.59480648219981 0.615404961896644
1992 Q1 0.586127017923019 0.614010902229762
1992 Q2 0.575229690841714 0.609551300209883
1992 Q3 0.567154653345599 0.608643292666677
1992 Q4 0.556485500320845 0.607124023863598
1993 Q1 0.555042686195131 0.608995611682901
1993 Q2 0.553508850644719 0.610838046867508
1993 Q3 0.553012903913894 0.614683196897225
1993 Q4 0.5482899418256 0.613872231896886
1994 Q1 0.549388868370741 0.615254933771354
1994 Q2 0.546313467038668 0.614947486046162
1994 Q3 0.547564852357942 0.61769140269333
1994 Q4 0.545779049716121 0.621069367139137
1995 Q1 0.550259635065869 0.625321228684514
1995 Q2 0.555906564796161 0.631331340719433
1995 Q3 0.55480862279346 0.63513661433336
1995 Q4 0.556647041280727 0.637288928035019
1996 Q1 0.55591037543776 0.645045261669743
1996 Q2 0.554180090727563 0.643129702570946
1996 Q3 0.555589388701194 0.644022658806445
1996 Q4 0.552173540888724 0.643667723959902
1997 Q1 0.554993121203733 0.646221803960584
1997 Q2 0.556418989708088 0.644066523258783
1997 Q3 0.562073587328288 0.644670103498594
1997 Q4 0.567909401731047 0.646220294146402
1998 Q1 0.579247683409876 0.651209499147351
1998 Q2 0.592469602380191 0.657509020090864
1998 Q3 0.598861189613486 0.656518618319704
1998 Q4 0.603292170177484 0.658509137785909
1999 Q1 0.613643129889004 0.665298296308779
1999 Q2 0.617272661425688 0.672260951627142
1999 Q3 0.628357386772236 0.675348464986673
1999 Q4 0.627213737462462 0.675918865627445
2000 Q1 0.637622562043731 0.685503728737508
2000 Q2 0.638841322752768 0.681631523890192
2000 Q3 0.643998133389028 0.693174222354459
2000 Q4 0.647306315678116 0.695910420953216
2001 Q1 0.649466282071523 0.705107365826026
2001 Q2 0.653510991602981 0.713760354750448
2001 Q3 0.660255123126773 0.736698741840457
2001 Q4 0.66212843436004 0.741582566989339
2002 Q1 0.659673853572588 0.750959057819817
2002 Q2 0.656778991610532 0.757604620361407
2002 Q3 0.654087020804731 0.769368738642612
2002 Q4 0.653769362432517 0.785038068756553
2003 Q1 0.648950535652488 0.79757026252337
2003 Q2 0.642748731830925 0.819491625655476
2003 Q3 0.633503215143444 0.822155540199171
2003 Q4 0.623901291802389 0.830185332707454
2004 Q1 0.628296414619028 0.839851009527698
2004 Q2 0.624160032164282 0.850764995585254
2004 Q3 0.625088427294012 0.858590687741476
2004 Q4 0.624707616553848 0.870485089501944
2005 Q1 0.624473047756587 0.872872746799907
2005 Q2 0.629504027654996 0.887745057981889
2005 Q3 0.62906217790913 0.897696597076904
2005 Q4 0.634881528382484 0.907882452114963
2006 Q1 0.637809688245451 0.918383708993791
2006 Q2 0.646252380498122 0.934088994856844
2006 Q3 0.651675954212012 0.947190117394227
2006 Q4 0.661384402360188 0.954087022670226
2007 Q1 0.671067332758802 0.956840105317723
2007 Q2 0.683696704407043 0.965511653106822
2007 Q3 0.698511279468573 0.969112991882721
2007 Q4 0.709885275341762 0.97173582326349
2008 Q1 0.724459896679966 0.982844704851679
2008 Q2 0.730312549673911 0.969194321882298
2008 Q3 0.737850979116114 0.972893145371713
2008 Q4 0.754668488108296 0.972528870582287
2009 Q1 0.758631303850584 0.980213710826946
2009 Q2 0.754896727930757 0.982233585485976
2009 Q3 0.742085373802624 0.97442833293261
2009 Q4 0.717587490322497 0.958492207729184
2010 Q1 0.710234879214554 0.947657201917287
2010 Q2 0.695271282552902 0.929831411384353
2010 Q3 0.690895358729097 0.913534673037016
2010 Q4 0.678168302843063 0.902107348691405
2011 Q1 0.676762804394739 0.900750730484838
2011 Q2 0.673180250423926 0.885373644250546
2011 Q3 0.674223015808094 0.876816691036627
2011 Q4 0.672346601579989 0.864627828644892
2012 Q1 0.668154414718456 0.852059191707162
2012 Q2 0.669479546483134 0.842560258256945
2012 Q3 0.675874156019462 0.834810121191521
2012 Q4 0.683905751735081 0.827356354304966
2013 Q1 0.678867893679006 0.818211578448563
2013 Q2 0.685237460656655 0.81494495055111
2013 Q3 0.687786211004258 0.80474775092224
2013 Q4 0.686179383584907 0.802976951107372
2014 Q1 0.697191805108323 0.806517171037261
2014 Q2 0.694824810423353 0.794713910568183
2014 Q3 0.694482231973215 0.778512553310371
2014 Q4 0.704411922256484 0.776422547042138
2015 Q1 0.711003259662052 0.772990150484991
2015 Q2 0.717752901237783 0.769677311285516
2015 Q3 0.723055343044142 0.768313191453842
2015 Q4 0.730581226491563 0.766175157797851
2016 Q1 0.742406117953682 0.767384131206779
2016 Q2 0.742448709369142 0.766007335944106
2016 Q3 0.745164293881866 0.765428535420594
2016 Q4 0.740504759217154 0.761623728042699
2017 Q1 0.747620497918993 0.761343830244723
2017 Q2 0.754147138768895 0.762268693344489
2017 Q3 0.75475725774079 0.757717710641995
2017 Q4 0.755852796574033 0.753234651661958
2018 Q1 0.753050352378745 0.74885767816332
2018 Q2 0.765640511946215 0.744975635676398
2018 Q3 0.76687648717013 0.743329809079689
2018 Q4 0.771186565054649 0.743993878534556
2019 Q1 0.775722020121639 0.742201917429281
2019 Q2 0.772458075165934 0.740542242902096
2019 Q3 0.771349868728298 0.736646591768329
2019 Q4 0.767300163947678 0.736235728666707
2020 Q1 0.812790398891146 0.749656670298137
2020 Q2 0.919243082822735 0.81570859420036
2020 Q3 0.84536912938617 0.760013015717964
2020 Q4 0.833070465604173 0.757140260713252
2021 Q1 0.821216974529449 0.748463871298996
2021 Q2 0.809627349831042 0.755333176058517
2021 Q3 0.800102048362112 0.751233164497052
2021 Q4 0.78689244452868 0.73936646503105
2022 Q1 0.791629240929713 0.737300812425187
2022 Q2 0.787761088199157 0.733532020002797
2022 Q3 0.781485969992933 0.731623589834825
2022 Q4 0.771381586268445 0.725174314607423
2023 Q1 0.767770665967123 0.718007371350084
2023 Q2 0.762499638028449 0.715907206339083
2023 Q3 0.750821921447447 0.708161204692685
2023 Q4 0.743258738648563 0.703897947790659
2024 Q1 0.742049531811847 0.700616114361658
2024 Q2 0.73890892676545 0.696552993560884

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Figure 2.3. Business debt adjusted for inflation grew modestly

Percent change, annual rate

Date Growth of agg debt
1997 Q1 5.52456779517903
1997 Q2 6.42972151107226
1997 Q3 10.0924075551684
1997 Q4 7.69280223282698
1998 Q1 11.4938424458885
1998 Q2 12.6702664711299
1998 Q3 9.71610216305158
1998 Q4 9.32783567068904
1999 Q1 10.9026456283786
1999 Q2 5.87363441960854
1999 Q3 10.3291637936933
1999 Q4 6.18807758392251
2000 Q1 8.73194809679175
2000 Q2 9.21094498979814
2000 Q3 4.06737307901464
2000 Q4 4.65899193085513
2001 Q1 1.09657151313092
2001 Q2 5.89430170049372
2001 Q3 3.06164446396478
2001 Q4 1.5664252069159
2002 Q1 1.88675012142159
2002 Q2 -0.118575601113535
2002 Q3 -0.234263842124748
2002 Q4 1.19922949188922
2003 Q1 -0.137171887992757
2003 Q2 -0.64415553213405
2003 Q3 1.26380143108429
2003 Q4 -1.62282240464028
2004 Q1 4.4850659657561
2004 Q2 1.38690296296481
2004 Q3 5.53064276498886
2004 Q4 4.7951061014123
2005 Q1 4.66747265434624
2005 Q2 6.1480907414132
2005 Q3 4.96696740380847
2005 Q4 6.60356929863799
2006 Q1 7.72164523548451
2006 Q2 6.70427104631382
2006 Q3 4.62832973142452
2006 Q4 9.19175922450765
2007 Q1 7.91579831768563
2007 Q2 11.2213121301746
2007 Q3 11.3184560205561
2007 Q4 7.98870968243636
2008 Q1 5.89352596438263
2008 Q2 5.97623009213863
2008 Q3 3.24559856203729
2008 Q4 1.52991721745194
2009 Q1 -3.03660638929445
2009 Q2 -4.79795376654716
2009 Q3 -6.23874001033929
2009 Q4 -6.6643374604508
2010 Q1 -3.99560080367611
2010 Q2 -3.69988079630765
2010 Q3 1.24255599724793
2010 Q4 -0.625644124505444
2011 Q1 -1.41825467965113
2011 Q2 0.955466101084086
2011 Q3 1.18354685351797
2011 Q4 2.48618454302653
2012 Q1 0.949264971738248
2012 Q2 2.65543972597374
2012 Q3 5.53520800137474
2012 Q4 6.43524960933045
2013 Q1 1.05350698419641
2013 Q2 4.62266144467999
2013 Q3 5.35896888521869
2013 Q4 3.36723327738722
2014 Q1 5.32428493250243
2014 Q2 4.35315528429716
2014 Q3 4.83147491292268
2014 Q4 7.11450322982776
2015 Q1 6.94634711961022
2015 Q2 6.87142861903059
2015 Q3 4.36824346027507
2015 Q4 4.63911236646556
2016 Q1 6.81972673729648
2016 Q2 1.85409527513637
2016 Q3 3.62019774870856
2016 Q4 0.404710707270734
2017 Q1 4.19854700062067
2017 Q2 5.48378289635022
2017 Q3 4.35453939270344
2017 Q4 3.85543141394099
2018 Q1 1.77461957649803
2018 Q2 1.06736113977664
2018 Q3 3.61758184217115
2018 Q4 2.69454742936777
2019 Q1 4.83589692461218
2019 Q2 2.34471371073514
2019 Q3 4.20362671173595
2019 Q4 0.759297430968476
2020 Q1 18.0462572393314
2020 Q2 15.8564239571234
2020 Q3 -2.89836970733803
2020 Q4 -0.635429777534493
2021 Q1 1.45473307206998
2021 Q2 -3.27208516491199
2021 Q3 -0.0544472151128232
2021 Q4 1.8891280214922
2022 Q1 1.78762754267252
2022 Q2 2.34372696595099
2022 Q3 -1.1200151057863
2022 Q4 -1.3726920977794
2023 Q1 -0.112401397418036
2023 Q2 -2.30747763689402
2023 Q3 -1.0832889863265
2023 Q4 -1.33755176527722
2024 Q1 0.270852607127942
2024 Q2 1.03403287884624

Note: Nominal debt growth is seasonally adjusted and is translated into real terms after subtracting the growth rate of the price deflator for the core personal consumption expenditures price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Figure 2.4. Net issuance of risky debt remained subdued

Billions of dollars

Date Institutional leveraged loans High-yield and unrated bonds
2004 Q2 15.5699920654297 -12.7997829915
2004 Q3 6.33000183105469 -4.7444686799
2004 Q4 20.8800048828125 -13.2517237499027
2005 Q1 10.5 2.97369487239999
2005 Q2 16.8999938964844 -6.410706469
2005 Q3 7.27999877929688 -12.991040792
2005 Q4 20.6100006103516 2.72848883801281
2006 Q1 27.1599884033203 -13.66462260049
2006 Q2 40.1400146484375 12.5665759
2006 Q3 17.8599853515625 -5.58880446140401
2006 Q4 66.3000183105469 30.5087983381185
2007 Q1 40.6799926757813 0.19438353519999
2007 Q2 54.3099975585938 23.3461726256
2007 Q3 25.7200012207031 -7.04300563787999
2007 Q4 36.0599975585938 -10.4225800406
2008 Q1 2.21002197265625 -20.137899142
2008 Q2 26.219970703125 3.03224333508
2008 Q3 6.60003662109375 -1.99635980312
2008 Q4 4.79998779296875 -23.475024039
2009 Q1 -11.8200073242188 -25.4492457618
2009 Q2 -15.530029296875 1.96524644920001
2009 Q3 -13.2599487304688 -8.3859206677
2009 Q4 -24.9800415039063 -9.211476421
2010 Q1 -17.8499755859375 3.29614121840999
2010 Q2 -9.71002197265625 13.21006038522
2010 Q3 11.760009765625 14.20725090757
2010 Q4 -15.3399963378906 25.00720073417
2011 Q1 -4.489990234375 0.460359469560002
2011 Q2 25.4899597167969 16.39558409807
2011 Q3 -5.50994873046875 -7.89381352476999
2011 Q4 3.90997314453125 3.67994934657
2012 Q1 -6.47000122070313 22.77321088568
2012 Q2 18.4499816894531 -13.41272508643
2012 Q3 -4.3800048828125 38.551299447
2012 Q4 25.9600219726563 21.114433235054
2013 Q1 11.2999877929688 23.0538808032
2013 Q2 31.3099975585938 19.65314829777
2013 Q3 45.1600341796875 26.66882332293
2013 Q4 43.5399780273438 24.45471547174
2014 Q1 29.4400024414063 16.13022019701
2014 Q2 45.6199951171875 15.58172500528
2014 Q3 48.4199829101563 32.3089474055
2014 Q4 26.1800537109375 3.99923349074401
2015 Q1 6.4599609375 32.918267314
2015 Q2 -3.1099853515625 4.34897208896001
2015 Q3 8.58001708984375 -0.680115462000011
2015 Q4 28.7999877929688 -13.22171942204
2016 Q1 9.0899658203125 -0.651168015490006
2016 Q2 4.99005126953125 2.29172081972001
2016 Q3 -12.8800048828125 -3.45296512689999
2016 Q4 7.19000244140625 -44.96958316503
2017 Q1 -4.239990234375 9.0480177782
2017 Q2 49.0099487304688 -10.84958064711
2017 Q3 13.030029296875 -2.19109402510999
2017 Q4 16.8099975585938 -3.60290545473999
2018 Q1 24.22998046875 16.272991855113
2018 Q2 62.2099609375 -8.23682443242
2018 Q3 46.6800537109375 10.88165573089
2018 Q4 48.550048828125 -20.52812190214
2019 Q1 45.5299072265625 13.27413095774
2019 Q2 9.2000732421875 19.040025168757
2019 Q3 -11.330078125 12.11588355029
2019 Q4 13.090087890625 8.24712617657
2020 Q1 3.0899658203125 4.84000137497001
2020 Q2 -11.4200439453125 89.89666792529
2020 Q3 14.320068359375 6.15744958298
2020 Q4 -6.1700439453125 -10.3100086912
2021 Q1 13.6500244140625 21.49987596717
2021 Q2 51.3399658203125 31.93617438325
2021 Q3 41.239990234375 14.70553534896
2021 Q4 41.81005859375 2.58812544673
2022 Q1 49.2999267578125 -11.69104930992
2022 Q2 24.010009765625 -10.83661221956
2022 Q3 16.0400390625 -20.59937999021
2022 Q4 -17.260009765625 -17.63153688531
2023 Q1 -14.530029296875 1.96250629338
2023 Q2 -4.77001953125 -0.870859504149997
2023 Q3 14.10009765625 -1.51004039198
2023 Q4 -10.780029296875 -3.743473551
2024 Q1 -20 -2.53498203096001
2024 Q2 -1.1600341796875 14.013302928
2024 Q3 6.6400146484375 -0.80773595692

Note: The data begin in 2004:Q2. Institutional leveraged loans generally exclude loan commitments held by banks. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom (except for some bars with at least one negative value). For 2024:Q3, the value corresponds to preliminary data.

Source: Mergent, Inc., Fixed Income Securities Database; PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

Figure 2.5. Gross leverage of large businesses stayed high by historical standards

Percent

Date 75th percentile All firms
2000 Q1 48.1541093469476 30.347022395444
2000 Q2 47.8100203932515 29.6013811305767
2000 Q3 47.4673349259371 29.0063588210691
2000 Q4 46.987233134119 29.172255017168
2001 Q1 47.4301070779023 29.1763334285275
2001 Q2 47.3882550047634 29.3659728231929
2001 Q3 47.3004312463195 29.3569931854564
2001 Q4 47.1031152483785 29.9793953723373
2002 Q1 46.0030603756982 30.6120351330452
2002 Q2 44.4515954205301 29.6644183071688
2002 Q3 44.0544006352575 29.4423349305552
2002 Q4 44.4031862654759 29.1651200948768
2003 Q1 42.8197880003322 28.9494051457982
2003 Q2 42.1814051044141 28.1262612447261
2003 Q3 41.778402174698 27.7720209598146
2003 Q4 41.5829370986416 26.6969672717637
2004 Q1 39.4611769102911 26.2945371799665
2004 Q2 38.9295298728731 25.6882329885446
2004 Q3 38.6766403958058 25.3716567653919
2004 Q4 39.1666128317714 25.1223566113436
2005 Q1 37.810521162171 24.9126281231996
2005 Q2 37.7659268377245 24.7934354865675
2005 Q3 37.485804088461 24.1148810283721
2005 Q4 38.3413203621397 24.1702973234963
2006 Q1 37.4089969135364 24.4383294204669
2006 Q2 37.7219468057056 24.3417036072463
2006 Q3 37.6753766883697 24.3475082076169
2006 Q4 38.5743531903771 24.6943764926948
2007 Q1 37.9848455164371 24.909886140687
2007 Q2 38.6513307464355 25.155328868419
2007 Q3 38.6792663578789 25.5483119852482
2007 Q4 38.9335972021326 25.8309274980796
2008 Q1 39.0800120932142 26.039259225689
2008 Q2 38.9784176638834 26.1649990451322
2008 Q3 39.9571753891994 27.1508445031113
2008 Q4 42.6324740395116 28.7430470208807
2009 Q1 41.5105818318621 28.6722095674083
2009 Q2 39.8994417234298 27.9190462464862
2009 Q3 38.4629290894534 26.9529665808509
2009 Q4 38.7378386317516 26.7303937466623
2010 Q1 37.0110906327471 26.3216660000499
2010 Q2 36.692747160812 26.1903435754001
2010 Q3 36.2554627747218 26.2017174728608
2010 Q4 36.9372224474664 25.9736250044826
2011 Q1 36.0589637142573 25.774099664678
2011 Q2 35.5902316462165 25.8245352168999
2011 Q3 36.3697337757757 26.1647067593861
2011 Q4 37.7767271733315 26.0818211550264
2012 Q1 36.9385365330696 26.0323757872794
2012 Q2 37.339677846791 26.5807869761086
2012 Q3 37.4879443178704 26.7101824170091
2012 Q4 38.787018318139 27.0815619412337
2013 Q1 37.9948543386344 26.9282234702872
2013 Q2 38.2105874672115 27.3461593788707
2013 Q3 38.5027871697802 27.6711047525289
2013 Q4 40.0898933743967 27.8991425826044
2014 Q1 39.2143428614575 28.5055494195236
2014 Q2 40.2756251316033 28.4336338057114
2014 Q3 40.7912324899085 28.6051545998847
2014 Q4 42.1337801696516 29.177523863729
2015 Q1 42.3765319269216 30.0316435297708
2015 Q2 42.08336808844 30.5557825748027
2015 Q3 42.5319539563197 31.0961567176718
2015 Q4 43.8355866031826 32.0335207482204
2016 Q1 43.8670498046321 32.6453176381858
2016 Q2 43.6719156562022 32.875692701641
2016 Q3 42.9926155232173 32.9623084302532
2016 Q4 43.1012564175281 32.8218977926898
2017 Q1 42.6918920081189 33.0954834051768
2017 Q2 42.1884724879684 33.4594184035528
2017 Q3 42.0668661193383 33.2871633574076
2017 Q4 41.9132576363368 32.9295871769714
2018 Q1 41.9760971691098 33.2421036084956
2018 Q2 42.1935905106835 33.029255155075
2018 Q3 41.6678048755891 32.7645181364179
2018 Q4 42.4671964416701 33.0677077070146
2019 Q1 46.2700331472417 35.2344037777496
2019 Q2 46.5497676601209 35.404266055707
2019 Q3 47.3806807503245 35.4822247687117
2019 Q4 47.8632300477217 35.4520587700801
2020 Q1 49.8129046040097 37.4732376970163
2020 Q2 49.1580835074116 37.6737547998737
2020 Q3 47.3824058635482 36.8071150079169
2020 Q4 46.6885625330728 36.1058279350628
2021 Q1 45.9541992708511 35.6947537609378
2021 Q2 45.0306941302901 35.1567538259774
2021 Q3 44.3363707297197 34.606631682732
2021 Q4 44.565503178241 34.2088492470466
2022 Q1 44.7887490190196 34.1057099252231
2022 Q2 45.5892435543826 34.046353364014
2022 Q3 45.351082995805 34.1052182461996
2022 Q4 45.5649355296129 34.1611576899028
2023 Q1 45.8299090881175 34.2969581443638
2023 Q2 45.2227456106187 34.2348632434891
2023 Q3 45.4921086758977 34.0123698683697
2023 Q4 45.4999313772882 33.8796406912487
2024 Q1 45.6018144035783 33.7741592469592
2024 Q2 45.2464913924799 33.7943234705743

Note: Gross leverage is an asset-weighted average of the ratio of firms' book value of total debt to book value of total assets. The 75th percentile is calculated from a sample of the 2,500 largest firms by assets. The dashed sections of the lines in 2019:Q1 reflect the structural break in the series due to the 2019 compliance deadline for Financial Accounting Standards Board rule Accounting Standards UpDate 2016-02. The accounting standard requires operating leases, previously considered off-balance-sheet. activities, to be included in measures of debt and assets.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

Figure 2.6. Interest coverage ratios, which indicate firms' ability to service their debt, have changed little

Ratio

Date Median for all firms Median for all non-investment grade firms
2000 Q1 2.36029256294827 1.59376325581192
2000 Q2 2.32273712851903 1.5481964880621
2000 Q3 2.26505465547531 1.51946022727273
2000 Q4 2.20765965258479 1.4447093578214
2001 Q1 2.12852564194417 1.37603887916838
2001 Q2 2.08123088685015 1.35217536304546
2001 Q3 1.89320511063217 1.24738125646942
2001 Q4 1.77344924741126 1.28211879155696
2002 Q1 1.78059713527199 1.27833640860033
2002 Q2 1.74299573766832 1.29072717023675
2002 Q3 1.84412389001307 1.40560672591038
2002 Q4 2.00625539257981 1.5269815262609
2003 Q1 2.10804682668076 1.60160748560461
2003 Q2 2.11539531273139 1.51104615462119
2003 Q3 2.17306528304208 1.66891486810552
2003 Q4 2.29775528169014 1.67502151827233
2004 Q1 2.54787883585708 1.91782442105331
2004 Q2 2.87736149100871 2.06410540301152
2004 Q3 3.0231520815633 2.25943821582627
2004 Q4 3.00136668867438 2.35306550227828
2005 Q1 3.01371238753462 2.28414337788578
2005 Q2 3.00964320154291 2.24739003333941
2005 Q3 3.06967615309127 2.24802869046092
2005 Q4 3.04142543827928 2.28958975472108
2006 Q1 3.07049243034305 2.32458536707245
2006 Q2 3.00868651338367 2.27101757039795
2006 Q3 2.97355373565858 2.30451491945533
2006 Q4 2.91834625982243 2.28543307086614
2007 Q1 2.92091207425891 2.23036305855921
2007 Q2 2.83819946245 2.20840599930241
2007 Q3 2.69897596064868 2.10974531305271
2007 Q4 2.72832073779941 2.09589552238806
2008 Q1 2.79427083333333 2.16678399185292
2008 Q2 3.00130157826285 2.2490828150397
2008 Q3 2.98296129568031 2.25634057971015
2008 Q4 2.6275855913194 1.93891195057054
2009 Q1 2.69871697875033 1.96746681509977
2009 Q2 2.46823535486936 1.74390105300679
2009 Q3 2.33079656892273 1.59698932926829
2009 Q4 2.28353658536585 1.68103526467861
2010 Q1 2.62818000103837 1.95766648884147
2010 Q2 2.7625 2.10916619003866
2010 Q3 2.94642857142857 2.19573643410853
2010 Q4 3.04279279279279 2.29516934709153
2011 Q1 3.19006479481642 2.47194513715711
2011 Q2 3.37037037037037 2.56389758497317
2011 Q3 3.520922854775 2.61811105869668
2011 Q4 3.46009157838032 2.58290035378932
2012 Q1 3.39739663093415 2.51354228341928
2012 Q2 3.41453925590098 2.57979076594438
2012 Q3 3.28194642251611 2.39532946105504
2012 Q4 3.0943579766537 2.37340249586528
2013 Q1 3.18815440749948 2.32926213267324
2013 Q2 3.25123025390787 2.27521649668363
2013 Q3 3.25531856261023 2.23196881091618
2013 Q4 3.15883738347201 2.19285714285714
2014 Q1 3.20810810810811 2.21395202020202
2014 Q2 3.42731199858944 2.39107777291001
2014 Q3 3.47111111111111 2.41812799421495
2014 Q4 3.37640041594861 2.31093268735508
2015 Q1 3.35 2.18376022131281
2015 Q2 3.3028692879915 2.18015104623572
2015 Q3 3.31188118811881 2.20266614759005
2015 Q4 3.11877066305471 2.12054571828731
2016 Q1 2.93783712295602 2.0395097946437
2016 Q2 2.925 1.9849185209663
2016 Q3 2.95733076214598 2.10300678461039
2016 Q4 2.99394544830752 2.01607468399043
2017 Q1 3.04163662123459 2.12527352297593
2017 Q2 3.11214442013129 2.21255713282392
2017 Q3 3.06819860710836 2.28951149425287
2017 Q4 3.08326913199795 2.29038992254963
2018 Q1 3.0566298784389 2.23897209453468
2018 Q2 3.08409610983982 2.33874458874459
2018 Q3 3.16650614013966 2.36176470588235
2018 Q4 3.06569945957079 2.32703488372093
2019 Q1 2.9463424437299 2.21296296296296
2019 Q2 2.88526822956733 2.03572540798474
2019 Q3 2.79617434623348 2.06129210381005
2019 Q4 2.65760869565217 2.01046414165226
2020 Q1 2.48237097748311 1.77924983872377
2020 Q2 2.12503711591428 1.33222392638037
2020 Q3 2.16861335831278 1.23164201966023
2020 Q4 2.0480443999019 1.23611111111111
2021 Q1 2.47443033982496 1.50469039024568
2021 Q2 3.0008875739645 1.89519153778077
2021 Q3 3.2753546855939 2.22654100384658
2021 Q4 3.19923258559622 2.17888056233298
2022 Q1 3.428087375301 2.20713595820929
2022 Q2 3.3972602739726 2.02772837119521
2022 Q3 3.08024691358025 1.82575071496664
2022 Q4 2.58521150652375 1.66801707339708
2023 Q1 2.44669514388489 1.51553928625755
2023 Q2 2.33196314167274 1.44735850200888
2023 Q3 2.37360072225151 1.40005361930295
2023 Q4 2.28656093302292 1.40214695584517
2024 Q1 2.36896551724138 1.48504273504274
2024 Q2 2.39583333333333 1.45677974307073

Note: The interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest and taxes divided by interest payments. Firms with leverage less than 5 percent and interest payments less than $500,000 are excluded.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

Figure 2.7. New leveraged loans with debt multiples greater than 4 have been near their lowest levels in a decade

Percent

Date Debt multiples ≥ 6x Debt multiples 5x-5.99x Debt multiples 4x­4.99x Debt multiples ≤ 4x
2001 2.70000007003546 10.1000003516674 26.1999994516373 61.1000001430512
2002 5.90000003576279 12.2000001370907 27.3000001907349 54.6000003814697
2003 6.69999998062849 11.5000002086163 29.3000012636185 52.6000022888184
2004 8.79999976605177 17.5999999046326 28.600001335144 44.9999988079071
2005 8.00000037997961 25.0999987125397 25.0999987125397 41.8000012636185
2006 16.2999995052814 21.0999995470047 26.3000011444092 36.3999992609024
2007 27.6999995112419 17.4999997019768 23.7000003457069 31.2000006437302
2008 10.700000077486 12.0999999344349 14.2000004649162 63.0999982357025
2009 17.7000001072884 11.5000002086163 17.7000001072884 53.1000018119812
2010 5.8000001590699 17.9000005125999 22.5999996066093 53.7000000476837
2011 14.4000001251698 19.200000166893 22.5999996066093 43.7999993562698
2012 15.8000003546476 21.7999994754791 26.6000002622604 35.8999997377396
2013 16.4000004529953 23.1000006198883 28.999999165535 31.4999997615814
2014 27.1999999880791 21.5000003576279 22.5999996066093 28.7000000476837
2015 18.7000006437302 26.1999994516373 24.8999997973442 30.3000003099442
2016 21.000000089407 24.4000002741814 32.600000500679 21.8999996781349
2017 22.0000006258488 27.5999993085861 27.5999993085861 22.6999998092651
2018 29.6000003814697 26.8999993801117 24.1999998688698 19.3000003695488
2019 32.8999996185303 23.2999995350838 23.4999999403954 20.2999994158745
2020 28.1000003218651 23.8999992609024 25.6999999284744 22.3000004887581
2021 35.0999996066093 20.3999996185303 23.1000006198883 21.4000001549721
2022 36.5000009536743 20.8000004291534 19.3000003695488 23.3999997377396
2023 16.9999994337559 18.7999993562698 26.3999998569489 37.7999991178513
2024 Q1 22.3000004887581 23.2999995350838 22.3000004887581 32.1000009775162
2024 Q2 18.299999833107 22.3000004887581 21.8999996781349 37.5
2024 Q3 15.8000005409122 26.800000667572 25.2000004053116 32.3000013828278

Note: Volumes are for large corporations with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization greater than $50 million and exclude existing tranches of add-ons and amendments as well as restatements with no new money. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Mergent, Inc., Fixed Income Securities Database; PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

Figure 2.8. The default rate on leveraged loans remained well below its previous peaks

Percent

Date Realized default rate Realized default rate (including distressed exchanges)
1999-01-01 1.40374443874576  
1999-02-01 0.620130074272045  
1999-03-01 0.961558060168108  
1999-04-01 0.910025850082999  
1999-05-01 1.08432506922787  
1999-06-01 1.51147782227669  
1999-07-01 1.46856132869432  
1999-08-01 2.58669462674692  
1999-09-01 2.83564148416579  
1999-10-01 2.79553858940607  
1999-11-01 4.23476547428082  
1999-12-01 4.17363270874809  
2000-01-01 5.31955188860256  
2000-02-01 5.63665801395398  
2000-03-01 5.79387818120708  
2000-04-01 7.38707363523978  
2000-05-01 7.1272474346274  
2000-06-01 7.50275817381135  
2000-07-01 7.38638660941154  
2000-08-01 6.65602334926934  
2000-09-01 6.59817681681765  
2000-10-01 6.74029479357337  
2000-11-01 5.7997136872917  
2000-12-01 6.57473346350473  
2001-01-01 5.890289821496  
2001-02-01 5.65193404131812  
2001-03-01 5.48432983996405  
2001-04-01 4.78452184278759  
2001-05-01 6.42183107838333  
2001-06-01 6.27790427404653  
2001-07-01 6.81737551468091  
2001-08-01 6.79872690180133  
2001-09-01 6.50470952417523  
2001-10-01 6.72167813766106  
2001-11-01 6.50463564435449  
2001-12-01 6.30391411142361  
2002-01-01 7.24992414591309  
2002-02-01 7.24500509942625  
2002-03-01 6.8484910901823  
2002-04-01 6.95151266913317  
2002-05-01 5.6949044894794  
2002-06-01 7.41236450994404  
2002-07-01 6.8397177567764  
2002-08-01 6.78220535455937  
2002-09-01 6.41446937703412  
2002-10-01 6.5850341177601  
2002-11-01 6.52532834017819  
2002-12-01 6.01237682581557  
2003-01-01 5.12912891130075  
2003-02-01 5.00880429946855  
2003-03-01 5.47066888423004  
2003-04-01 5.25912875791241  
2003-05-01 5.34793308939678  
2003-06-01 2.62312005668266  
2003-07-01 2.64426832515177  
2003-08-01 2.67290377148024  
2003-09-01 2.90810705065732  
2003-10-01 2.29547070641196  
2003-11-01 2.28463596938286  
2003-12-01 2.24950731862114  
2004-01-01 1.89471401030441  
2004-02-01 1.61166556876154  
2004-03-01 1.11407293913559  
2004-04-01 0.936565901600417  
2004-05-01 0.682252697548041  
2004-06-01 0.94402709654127  
2004-07-01 0.905279421260321  
2004-08-01 0.881211884544273  
2004-09-01 1.00572085360985  
2004-10-01 1.02263104092439  
2004-11-01 1.02447519808232  
2004-12-01 1.01410900355372  
2005-01-01 1.02507496733947  
2005-02-01 1.36950502993963  
2005-03-01 1.26380537907338  
2005-04-01 1.48474248266849  
2005-05-01 1.54252866376508  
2005-06-01 1.29059194154891  
2005-07-01 1.46391596172856  
2005-08-01 1.4322396132521  
2005-09-01 1.65136354081861  
2005-10-01 2.56111587402713  
2005-11-01 2.2919216557973  
2005-12-01 3.02200238489307  
2006-01-01 2.95905018676368  
2006-02-01 2.89026629376766  
2006-03-01 2.7918405529996  
2006-04-01 2.47410163943416  
2006-05-01 2.29884766993254  
2006-06-01 2.27578550094482  
2006-07-01 2.07746169564351  
2006-08-01 2.08233574928927  
2006-09-01 1.56164341405421  
2006-10-01 0.98750704786384  
2006-11-01 1.07120897621029  
2006-12-01 0.478307708235541  
2007-01-01 0.453190511692308  
2007-02-01 0.240578570601141  
2007-03-01 0.232230305288034  
2007-04-01 0.220155865782788  
2007-05-01 0.155571457234322  
2007-06-01 0.154081525205981  
2007-07-01 0.211963491765366  
2007-08-01 0.208792752420673  
2007-09-01 0.424045769819244  
2007-10-01 0.332881677165982  
2007-11-01 0.24513291103573  
2007-12-01 0.238273169122302  
2008-01-01 0.724542626185178  
2008-02-01 0.93826164729208  
2008-03-01 1.07242724769546  
2008-04-01 1.29580863520729  
2008-05-01 1.72659213469707  
2008-06-01 1.69506702223233  
2008-07-01 1.89629559136655  
2008-08-01 2.02854442101493  
2008-09-01 1.90991348704673  
2008-10-01 1.97448896039073  
2008-11-01 1.94408034196998  
2008-12-01 3.74683731955835  
2009-01-01 4.95210475046503  
2009-02-01 5.24589550168724  
2009-03-01 8.01858997184041  
2009-04-01 8.02940634177849  
2009-05-01 8.66045922589369  
2009-06-01 9.14772247672355  
2009-07-01 9.56640311201017  
2009-08-01 9.67577785129606  
2009-09-01 9.75397713835357  
2009-10-01 10.7142905891958  
2009-11-01 10.8148014359355  
2009-12-01 9.60939472782257  
2010-01-01 8.81735742948314  
2010-02-01 8.58590330909801  
2010-03-01 5.81971055173797  
2010-04-01 5.6523123165647  
2010-05-01 4.63584120724762  
2010-06-01 4.0150779158563  
2010-07-01 3.47413584963326  
2010-08-01 3.56979895935773  
2010-09-01 3.54724033716263  
2010-10-01 2.28336283885162  
2010-11-01 2.24556081786527  
2010-12-01 1.87434612836046  
2011-01-01 1.45790184243984  
2011-02-01 1.27066793633522  
2011-03-01 1.11092771671646  
2011-04-01 0.951718684531915  
2011-05-01 0.907898227237151  
2011-06-01 0.911510139282644  
2011-07-01 0.769791093336481  
2011-08-01 0.330341668123339  
2011-09-01 0.323653519645651  
2011-10-01 0.32491801437386  
2011-11-01 0.171682141698186  
2011-12-01 0.172134731379882  
2012-01-01 0.206351211364502  
2012-02-01 0.209284419443092  
2012-03-01 0.205923907398422  
2012-04-01 0.562049004964377  
2012-05-01 1.05330711277078  
2012-06-01 1.04401311129966  
2012-07-01 1.04461234780007  
2012-08-01 1.07437230697445  
2012-09-01 1.00191158921518  
2012-10-01 1.05735938242461  
2012-11-01 1.28076985146929  
2012-12-01 1.27489300372553  
2013-01-01 1.42344671639966  
2013-02-01 1.39987557153018  
2013-03-01 2.20969888342682  
2013-04-01 1.91198073910403  
2013-05-01 1.40383413394867  
2013-06-01 1.37283037838653  
2013-07-01 2.01910441311328  
2013-08-01 2.16113230294211  
2013-09-01 2.41440222521611  
2013-10-01 2.3136263698661  
2013-11-01 2.08240841560821  
2013-12-01 2.10967077730426  
2014-01-01 1.88463049707386  
2014-02-01 1.86266929830805  
2014-03-01 1.20983167850648  
2014-04-01 4.64389225577736  
2014-05-01 4.59783274787342  
2014-06-01 4.40734919905502  
2014-07-01 3.89045923073964  
2014-08-01 3.61034454301361  
2014-09-01 3.34388232555217  
2014-10-01 3.2771207617817  
2014-11-01 3.32944794624261  
2014-12-01 3.23801901087078  
2015-01-01 3.98617346086901  
2015-02-01 3.9172865660013  
2015-03-01 3.78858339595791  
2015-04-01 1.26444788092332  
2015-05-01 1.25911328441314  
2015-06-01 1.24189383465312  
2015-07-01 1.11360934731807  
2015-08-01 1.30380291553553  
2015-09-01 1.27305108622241  
2015-10-01 1.27128002658071  
2015-11-01 1.42234630306705  
2015-12-01 1.50003763151348  
2016-01-01 1.28616060792401  
2016-02-01 1.40506036175156  
2016-03-01 1.75298806932166  
2016-04-01 1.69282639571508  
2016-05-01 1.96225266084013  
2016-06-01 1.97031331590513  
2016-07-01 2.17007772656444  
2016-08-01 1.97993452219405  
2016-09-01 1.94857405847251  
2016-10-01 1.95438623582106  
2016-11-01 1.65983788107019  
2016-12-01 1.57893204311283 2.78063851699279
2017-01-01 1.55738865024389 2.3883696780893
2017-02-01 1.41493389880201 1.98329853862213
2017-03-01 1.48994068287674 1.67364016736402
2017-04-01 1.4276198736791 1.68243953732913
2017-05-01 1.4158488101288 1.59574468085106
2017-06-01 1.54172212922484 1.70575692963753
2017-07-01 1.35740861038153 1.39484978540773
2017-08-01 1.36405619635642 1.4145810663765
2017-09-01 1.53152795658299 1.52008686210641
2017-10-01 1.50896376047973 1.51351351351351
2017-11-01 1.95310325638077 1.93756727664155
2017-12-01 2.05146470457765 1.93965517241379
2018-01-01 1.94674870761357 2.04962243797195
2018-02-01 2.0027603845897 2.15285252960172
2018-03-01 2.42044442206168 2.14822771213749
2018-04-01 2.37383214519444 2.16450216450216
2018-05-01 2.11746878882325 1.93965517241379
2018-06-01 1.97933515015578 2.12314225053079
2018-07-01 1.99335529853962 2.22222222222222
2018-08-01 1.98634287306826 2.23880597014925
2018-09-01 1.81132768106832 2.11640211640212
2018-10-01 1.9233126289033 2.3109243697479
2018-11-01 1.60714425010705 1.97710718002081
2018-12-01 1.63131243102624 1.97505197505198
2019-01-01 1.41925631607619 1.85185185185185
2019-02-01 1.62021388594893 2.03045685279188
2019-03-01 0.929780031781983 1.90380761523046
2019-04-01 1.0079159880045 2.08333333333333
2019-05-01 0.996525775845705 2.04479065238559
2019-06-01 1.3449855651353 1.92307692307692
2019-07-01 1.32180455849828 1.80608365019011
2019-08-01 1.28952293334503 1.77736202057998
2019-09-01 1.29 1.76744186046512
2019-10-01 1.42549737860565 1.81818181818182
2019-11-01 1.47964949822113 1.80995475113122
2019-12-01 1.38718983497751 1.8018018018018
2020-01-01 1.83062399780694 2
2020-02-01 1.82512022533114 2.20338983050847
2020-03-01 1.84279394057552 2.35492010092515
2020-04-01 2.32146330717243 3.13293818797629
2020-05-01 3.14227482325744 3.80067567567568
2020-06-01 3.22706252199177 4.28571428571429
2020-07-01 3.9028203843141 4.81012658227848
2020-08-01 4.07652502814295 4.98732037193576
2020-09-01 4.168453142376 5.31197301854975
2020-10-01 4.11020376469708 5.58375634517767
2020-11-01 3.88708128460096 5.44388609715243
2020-12-01 3.83392559010348 5.39629005059022
2021-01-01 3.38084746263764 5.21885521885522
2021-02-01 3.24729715651773 5.1063829787234
2021-03-01 3.15475286063798 4.91942324003393
2021-04-01 2.60576038054329 4.0447504302926
2021-05-01 1.72590353221716 3.29575021682567
2021-06-01 1.24884205578877 2.44755244755245
2021-07-01 0.57991220877348 1.9315188762072
2021-08-01 0.468600070043025 1.83727034120735
2021-09-01 0.35102429817878 1.50044130626655
2021-10-01 0.198783710061825 0.886524822695036
2021-11-01 0.289490809747674 0.975177304964539
2021-12-01 0.285998310700827 0.96830985915493
2022-01-01 0.287849196318449 0.886524822695036
2022-02-01 0.190219886359247 0.711111111111111
2022-03-01 0.186644990097818 0.706713780918728
2022-04-01 0.184315458505975 0.616197183098592
2022-05-01 0.214841496509942 0.781928757602085
2022-06-01 0.279774757967324 0.865800865800866
2022-07-01 0.27902902726492 0.779220779220779
2022-08-01 0.59964312985254 1.20274914089347
2022-09-01 0.897724368474116 1.36518771331058
2022-10-01 0.830836678820539 1.3828867761452
2022-11-01 0.733432645666677 1.2853470437018
2022-12-01 0.719024140904362 1.45175064047822
2023-01-01 0.829103923452556 1.61839863713799
2023-02-01 1.01517924704664 1.85341196293176
2023-03-01 1.3242211073603 2.18855218855219
2023-04-01 1.31182575776585 2.42881072026801
2023-05-01 1.57621105317956 2.69360269360269
2023-06-01 1.71020415242221 2.96359017781541
2023-07-01 1.7475847971049 3.38409475465313
2023-08-01 1.55079562558493 3.12236286919831
2023-09-01 1.33824550109395 3.17195325542571
2023-10-01 1.43096276917203 3.27731092436975
2023-11-01 1.47821214388951 3.61952861952862
2023-12-01 1.52747128025964 3.83959044368601
2024-01-01 1.47059834804695 4.0274207369323
2024-02-01 1.4112986923983 4.31778929188256
2024-03-01 1.14071335290429 4.22413793103448
2024-04-01 1.30675884493121 4.32900432900433
2024-05-01 1.0772968541297 4.35161009573542
2024-06-01 0.919380265571573 4.31034482758621
2024-07-01 0.916442656691202 4.01709401709402
2024-08-01 0.784237585873954 4.17021276595745
2024-09-01 0.796299426537434 4.20875420875421

Note: The data begin in December 1998. The data including distressed exchanges begin in December 2016. The default rate is calculated as the amount in default over the past 12 months divided by the total outstanding volume of loans that are not in default at the beginning of the 12-month period. The default rate including distressed exchanges is calculated as the number of issuers in default or distressed exchange over the past 12 months divided by the total number of issuers that are not in default at the beginning of the 12-month period. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: PitchBook Data, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

Figure 2.9. Inflation-adjusted household debt has been little changed

This is a line chart titled "Inflation-adjusted household debt has been little changed". The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2024. The y-axis measures trillions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 16. The data is quarterly. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled 'Prime,' is designated by a black line, and ranges from about 4 to 13 trillion dollars. This variable rises from around 4 to about 11 trillion dollars from 1999 to 2008 and then declines to 8.8 trillion dollars in 2013. After 2013, this variable rises slowly until it reaches 12.1 trillion dollars in 2021:Q3, falls slightly to 11.8 trillion dollars throughout 2022, then rises again to end at 12.8 trillion dollars in 2024:Q3. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime' and is designated by a blue line. It ranges from around 2.6 to around 4.5 trillion dollars. The variable has a slight increase from 3 to around 4.5 trillion dollars from 2002 to 2008 but is otherwise stable around 3 trillion dollars, declining slightly since 2020:Q4 to end at 2.9 trillion dollars in 2024:Q4. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime,' is designated by the red line, and ranges from 1.4 to around 3.5 trillion dollars. There is a slight increase from 1.4 trillion dollars in 1999 to around 3 trillion dollars in 2007, and there is a steeper increase to around 3.5 trillions of dollars between 2007 and 2010. Then, the variable decreases to around 2 trillion dollars from 2014 to 2020:Q2. It shows a slight drop to around 1.4 trillion dollars throughout 2021 and 2022 before a slight increase to around 1.9 trillion dollars in 2024:Q4.

Note: Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. Student loan balances before 2004 are estimated using average growth from 2004 to 2007, by risk score. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.10. A model-based estimate of housing leverage stayed significantly below its peak levels

This is a line chart titled "A model-based estimate of housing leverage stayed significantly below its peak levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 60 to 180 and measures indexed ratios of outstanding mortgage debt to home values (with 100 being the ratio in 1999:Q1). The data is quarterly, ending in the third quarter of 2024. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled 'Relative to model-implied values' and is designated by the black line. It ranges from 100 to 135. The variable starts at 100 in 1999 and increases to around 135 in 2008 before decreasing to about 103 in 2021:Q2 and then rising to 111 in 2023:Q4. The second line is labeled 'Relative to market value' and is designated by the blue line. The variable also starts at 100 in 1999 and hovers between 93 and 100 until 2006. It then rises to around 136 in the years 2009-2012 before decreasing to around 78 in 2022:Q3 and finally rising again to over 82 at the end of the sample in 2024:Q3. There is also a horizontal dashed line marked at 100.

Note: Housing leverage is estimated as the ratio of the average outstanding mortgage loan balance for owner-occupied homes with a mortgage to (1) current home values using the Zillow national house price index and (2) model-implied house prices estimated by a staff model based on rents, interest rates, and a time trend.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Zillow, Inc., Real Estate Data; Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.11. Mortgage delinquency rates remained close to the low end of their historical distribution

This is a line chart titled "Mortgage delinquency rates remained close to the low end of their historical distribution". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2001 to 2024. The data is quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 10 percent of mortgages. There are two variables plotted. The first variable is "All mortgages", which is shown as a solid black line. It begins around 3.3 percent in 2001 and stays between 2.9 and 3.5 percent until 2007. It then begins to rise and peaks around 7.4 percent in 2010. It then steadily decreases to around 1.1 percent in 2021 before beginning to rise again to 2.1 percent in 2024:Q3. The second variable is "Mortgages in loss mitigation", which is shown as a solid blue line. It begins around 5.1 percent in 2001 and stays between 5 and 6 percent until rising in 2008 to about 9 percent. It then gradually fluctuates while decreasing until 2017 when the series spikes to 8 percent, then falls back to around 5 percent in 2018:Q1 where it stays until the series spikes again to 8 percent in 2020:Q2. The series then falls again to around 5 percent in 2021 and continues decreasing until 4.1 percent at the end of the series in 2024:Q3.

Note: Loss mitigation includes tradelines that have a narrative code of forbearance, natural disaster, payment deferral (including partial), loan modification (including federal government plans), or loans with no scheduled payment and a nonzero balance. Delinquent includes loans reported to the credit bureau as at least 30 days past due.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

Figure 2.12. Very few homeowners had negative equity in their homes

Percent of mortgages

Date Negative equity
2011-01-01 25.2801477
2011-02-01 25.14403759
2011-03-01 24.99349439
2011-04-01 24.93152259
2011-05-01 24.86778766
2011-06-01 24.80639321
2011-07-01 24.65477237
2011-08-01 24.50348051
2011-09-01 24.35737809
2011-10-01 24.65101748
2011-11-01 24.93398222
2011-12-01 25.22515278
2012-01-01 24.69410388
2012-02-01 24.19767741
2012-03-01 23.66744432
2012-04-01 23.20889984
2012-05-01 22.73714373
2012-06-01 22.28260234
2012-07-01 22.1736435
2012-08-01 22.06436208
2012-09-01 21.95828597
2012-10-01 21.83856143
2012-11-01 21.72327356
2012-12-01 21.60469997
2013-01-01 21.11141237
2013-02-01 20.66698986
2013-03-01 20.17616238
2013-04-01 18.42961703
2013-05-01 16.62284533
2013-06-01 14.87236255
2013-07-01 14.35028271
2013-08-01 13.83093694
2013-09-01 13.33092231
2013-10-01 13.37002764
2013-11-01 13.40778486
2013-12-01 13.44668947
2014-01-01 13.24991987
2014-02-01 13.07252344
2014-03-01 12.87645744
2014-04-01 12.22984772
2014-05-01 11.56325433
2014-06-01 10.91967054
2014-07-01 10.73988151
2014-08-01 10.56068372
2014-09-01 10.3878061
2014-10-01 10.48872349
2014-11-01 10.58615501
2014-12-01 10.68659407
2015-01-01 10.5436008
2015-02-01 10.41465931
2015-03-01 10.27218916
2015-04-01 9.81089448
2015-05-01 9.33545318
2015-06-01 8.87653133
2015-07-01 8.70285064
2015-08-01 8.52963032
2015-09-01 8.36244321
2015-10-01 8.36120879
2015-11-01 8.36002953
2015-12-01 8.35879671
2016-01-01 8.27798383
2016-02-01 8.20246359
2016-03-01 8.12183901
2016-04-01 7.77224037
2016-05-01 7.41173511
2016-06-01 7.06350915
2016-07-01 6.82049908
2016-08-01 6.57826395
2016-09-01 6.34457424
2016-10-01 6.31636698
2016-11-01 6.2891235
2016-12-01 6.26101007
2017-01-01 6.18906946
2017-02-01 6.12413954
2017-03-01 6.05234088
2017-04-01 5.85246608
2017-05-01 5.64655486
2017-06-01 5.44790211
2017-07-01 5.28244106
2017-08-01 5.11751836
2017-09-01 4.9584182
2017-10-01 4.94112558
2017-11-01 4.92446662
2017-12-01 4.907297
2018-01-01 4.83929693
2018-02-01 4.77808298
2018-03-01 4.71050232
2018-04-01 4.57110609
2018-05-01 4.42716126
2018-06-01 4.28796195
2018-07-01 4.23688035
2018-08-01 4.18590957
2018-09-01 4.13664704
2018-10-01 4.14557884
2018-11-01 4.15418155
2018-12-01 4.16299557
2019-01-01 4.14798702
2019-02-01 4.13446997
2019-03-01 4.11951412
2019-04-01 4.02813579
2019-05-01 3.93386692
2019-06-01 3.84281944
2019-07-01 3.80144488
2019-08-01 3.76017961
2019-09-01 3.72032491
2019-10-01 3.66656557
2019-11-01 3.61460181
2019-12-01 3.56094814
2020-01-01 3.51876695
2020-02-01 3.47933706
2020-03-01 3.43725928
2020-04-01 3.3802395
2020-05-01 3.32143928
2020-06-01 3.26465063
2020-07-01 3.18478851
2020-08-01 3.10515953
2020-09-01 3.02830438
2020-10-01 2.95595441
2020-11-01 2.88609009
2020-12-01 2.81408016
2021-01-01 2.74729514
2021-02-01 2.68697497
2021-03-01 2.62021964
2021-04-01 2.5176659
2021-05-01 2.4120494
2021-06-01 2.3102107
2021-07-01 2.27230463
2021-08-01 2.23455257
2021-09-01 2.19814935
2021-10-01 2.18375723
2021-11-01 2.16986283
2021-12-01 2.15556587
2022-01-01 2.11821552
2022-02-01 2.08459919
2022-03-01 2.047522
2022-04-01 2.00213866
2022-05-01 1.95535125
2022-06-01 1.91017149
2022-07-01 1.94119825
2022-08-01 1.9721538
2022-09-01 2.00201522
2022-10-01 2.04337861
2022-11-01 2.0833178
2022-12-01 2.12448952
2023-01-01 2.12159234
2023-02-01 2.11899279
2023-03-01 2.11610031
2023-04-01 2.0777164
2023-05-01 2.03809772
2023-06-01 1.99979052
2023-07-01 1.94561199
2023-08-01 1.89107131
2023-09-01 1.83794312
2023-10-01 1.83358278
2023-11-01 1.82934883
2023-12-01 1.82500694
2024-01-01 1.8109789
2024-02-01 1.79787468
2024-03-01 1.78385471
2024-04-01 1.75898182
2024-05-01 1.73327027
2024-06-01 1.70840642

Source: CoreLogic, Inc., Real Estate Data.

Figure 2.13. New mortgage extensions declined across all borrower categories

This is a bar graph titled "New mortgage extensions declined across all borrower categories." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2000 to 2024. The data is annual. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1800, in billions of dollars (real). There are three variables plotted. The first variable is labeled 'Subprime' and is designated by the orange bar. It ranges from around 90 to around 440 billion dollars. It starts at 287 billion dollars in 2000 and increases to 477 billion dollars between 2001 and 2006. Then it decreases to around 136 billion dollars in 2009 and remains stable between about 100 billion dollars to 150 billion dollars, until falling to 72 billion dollars in 2023. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime' and is designated by the blue bars. It ranges from about 270 to 1100 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 600 billion dollars in 2000 and increases quickly, peaking at just over 1000 billion dollars in 2006 before falling from 2008 through 2012 to around 287 billion dollars. Since then, it increased and stabilized around 490 billion dollars from 2016 to 2022, before a decline and ending at 313 billion dollars in 2023. The third variable is labeled 'Prime' and is designated by the black bars. It ranges from around 700 to 1600 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 800 billion dollars in 2000 and steeply increases to a peak of around 1620 billions of dollars in 2003. The variable remains between 1200 and 1400 billion dollars from 2004 to 2007 before falling sharply from 2008 to 2012 around 800 billion. The variable then builds back up to 957 billion dollars in 2013. It then climbs to around 1050 billion dollars in 2019, jumping to 1580 billion dollars in 2021, and then declining in the final two observations and ending at 1066 billion dollars in 2023.

Note: Year-over-year change in balances for the second quarter of each year among those households whose balance increased over this window. Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores were measured 1 year ago. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.14. Inflation-adjusted consumer credit has been about flat since late last year

This is a line chart titled "Inflation-adjusted consumer credit has been about flat since late last year". The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 200 to 2000 and the units are in billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly. There are 3 variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Student loans' and is represented by a black line. The variable starts at around 550 billion dollars in 2005. There are two small, brief dips in 2008 and 2012 but otherwise balances steadily increase to about 1840 billion dollars by 2020:Q2. The variable falls slightly and ends at 1514 billion dollars in 2024:Q3. The second line is labeled 'Auto loans'; is designated by a blue line; and ranges from around 600 to around 1550 billion dollars. It starts around at around 600 in 1999 and increases to around 1280 billion dollars in 2005. Auto loan balances fall slightly to around 980 in 2012 but began increasing again afterwards; the line ends at 1637 billion dollars in 2024:Q3. The last variable is labeled 'Credit cards' and is represented by a red line. It ranges from around 800 to 1300 billion dollars. Starting at around 900 billion dollars in 1999, credit cards balances increase to a little under 1000 billion dollars and remain steady for several years with a peak at around 1300 billion in 2008. Balances began to decrease after 2009 to around 870 billion dollars in 2013 and steadily increased to around 1020 billion dollars by the end of 2019. The line then falls until it reaches 883 billion dollars in 2022:Q1, then rises until 2024:Q3 where the series ends at 1165 billion dollars.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. Student loan data begin in 2005:Q1.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.15. Average maturity of auto loans at origination for used cars remained elevated

This is a line chart titled "Average maturity of auto loans at origination for used cars remained elevated". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2018 to 2024. The data are monthly. The y-axis unit is "months," and it ranges from 60 to 70. There are three variables plotted. The first series is labeled "Prime" and is represented by a black line. It begins in January 2018 at 63.9 months. It remains steady until sharply increasing in April 2020 to 65.82, then decreasingly sharply down to around 65 by October 2020. The series steadily increases to its maximum of 68.14 in June 2022, then steadily decreases for the rest of the time period to end at 66.6 in July 2024. The second series is labeled "Near prime" and is designated by a blue line. It begins around 65.5 months and increases steadily with a sharp increase in early 2020 to a local maximum of 67.17 in April 2020. It then declines sharply again down to 66.49 by July 2020, from which it rises steadily to reach its maximum value of 69.72 in July 2022. It declines gently through the remainder of the series, ending at 68.86 in July 2024. The last series is labeled "Subprime" and is represented by a red line. It begins at 64.68 and increases steadily with a sharp increase in early 2020 to a local maximum of 66 in April 2020. It then declines again down to 65.77 by June 2020, from which it rises to reach its maximum value of 68.9 in January 2024, with consistent but brief and quickly recovered declines of about 1 month in the first quarter of each year. It ends at a value of about 68.5 in July 2024.

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted. Loans for used auto vehicles only. Subprime are those with a VantageScore less than 601; near prime are from 601 to 660; prime are greater than 660.

Source: Experian Velocity.

Figure 2.16. Auto loan delinquencies have been somewhat above normal levels

This is a line chart titled "Auto loan delinquencies have been somewhat above normal levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The data is quarterly. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 6 percent. There is one variable plotted. The series is labeled "Delinquent" and represented by a black line. It begins around 3 percent and fluctuates within 2-4 percent for the next few years. It increases to around 5 percent in 2008:Q4, but then slowly decreases and hovers around 3 percent through 2019:Q1. The data decreases to around 2 percent in 2021:Q2 before rising to around 3.9 percent for the third quarter of 2024.

Note: Delinquent includes loans reported to the credit bureau as at least 30 days past due. The data for auto loans are reported semiannually by the Risk Assessment, Data Analysis, and Research Data Warehouse until 2017, after which they are reported quarterly. The data are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

Figure 2.17. Inflation-adjusted credit card balances for subprime borrowers trended higher but remained well below previous peaks

This is a line chart labeled "Inflation-adjusted credit card balances for subprime borrowers trended higher but remained well below previous peaks". The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2024, and the y-axis ranges from 0 to 700 billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly, ending in 2024:Q3. There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Prime' and is designated by a black line. It ranges from around 250 to 550 billion dollars. The series started at around 230 billion dollars in 1999 and increased to nearly 550 billion dollars in 2009. There is a slight decline from 2009 until balances were close just under 450 billion in 2012. From 2012 onwards, the series increased with fluctuations, reaching nearly 550 billion dollars at the end of 2019. It dropped to 458 in 2021:Q1 before returning to 595 billion dollars in 2024:Q3. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime,' is represented by a blue line, and ranges from around 250 to 450 billion dollars. Starting around 400 billion dollars in 1999, the series increased to around 470 billion dollars in 2002 to 2003. Near prime balances decrease to around 410 billion dollars in 2005 and remains mostly flat until 2008 before decreasing to around 290 billion dollars in 2011. The level has risen slowly since then, reaching about 350 billion dollars in 2019. It decreased to around 270 billion dollars in 2021:Q1, then rose to 344 billion dollars in 2024:Q3. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime', is designated by a red line, and ranges from around 125 to 310 billion dollars. It starts at around 230 billion dollars in 1999 and increases until reaching a peak at around 310 billion dollars in 2002. It decreases to around 230 billion dollars in 2005 before beginning to increase with fluctuations to around 300 billion dollars in 2008. It decreases to around 140 billion dollars in 2013 before slowly climbing again, reaching around 185 billion dollars in 2019:Q4. It decreased through 2021 and then increases to end at 226 billion dollars in 2024:Q3.

Note: Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score less than 620; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.18. Credit card delinquencies rose further to somewhat above their pre-pandemic levels

This is a line chart titled "Credit card delinquencies rose further to somewhat above their pre-pandemic levels." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2000 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 8 percent, measuring delinquency rates on credit cards. The data are quarterly, ending in 2024:Q3. There is one variable plotted, denoted by a black line. It ranges from just under 2 to about 7 percent. The series begins at 4 percent in 2000, rises to 6 percent through 2003, then falls just under 4 percent in 2005:Q4. The series then stays around 4 percent until 2008 when it slowly increases to 5 percent, then jumps to the series maximum of about 7 percent in 2009:Q1. The series then slowly falls to about 2 percent in 2015, then begins increasing in 2016:Q4 and reaches about 3 percent in 2020. Then, the series decreases to just under 2 percent in 2021 before it increases to about 4.3 percent when the series ends in 2024:Q3.

Note: Delinquency measures the fraction of balances that are at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans, which are delinquent and have either been charged off, foreclosed, or repossessed by the lender. The data are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

Figure 3.1. Banks maintained sound net interest margins

This is a line chart titled "Banks maintained sound net interest margins". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2014 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from -1 to 7 percent. The data are quarterly ending in 2024:Q2. There are two variables plotted on the chart. The first series is labeled ‘Average interest rate on interest-earning assets'. This series is designated by a black line and ranges from about 3 to 6 percent. The variable begins around 3.5 percent and has a gradual increase to about 4.5 percent in the middle of 2019. There is a decline in 2020 and the series falls below 3 percent in 2021 and early 2022 before a sharp increase back to about 6 percent in 2024:Q2. The second series, labeled ‘Average interest expense rate on liabilities,' is designated by a blue line and ranges from just above 0 to 3 percent. This variable begins at about 0.5 and increases slowly to 1.3 percent, where it stays through 2019. In 2020, it decreases to below 0.5 percent through 2021:Q4 before rising to its highest value of around 3 percent in 2024:Q2.

Note: Average interest rate on interest-earning assets is total interest income divided by total interest-earning assets. Average interest expense rate on liabilities is total interest expense divided by total liabilities. The shaded bar with a top cap indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

Figure 3.2. Banks' average risk-based capital ratios were above pre-pandemic levels

Percent of risk-weighted assets

Date G-SIBs Large non–G-SIBs Other BHCs
2001 Q1 7.26166249195656 7.01109703920625 8.02432058721936
2001 Q2 7.401592600804 6.9411525722561 8.2887049417901
2001 Q3 7.03184677307481 6.73482859330873 8.74340358558943
2001 Q4 7.23989220127541 6.68010358949498 8.92444554240401
2002 Q1 7.46364136371308 6.96700728171259 8.96554384598733
2002 Q2 7.47928986112438 7.151166774803 9.09215209792228
2002 Q3 7.54792087763189 7.09014936601035 9.09587140390225
2002 Q4 7.25405208782343 7.04414198524163 8.99669565958859
2003 Q1 7.24934006216591 7.17102024890735 9.26376129241488
2003 Q2 7.32204784931419 7.06692869984674 8.90815600118834
2003 Q3 7.57154148382411 7.14832800538929 9.06874413712726
2003 Q4 7.4116977144448 7.28854613196874 9.37380684652154
2004 Q1 7.35093750163776 7.37701621660103 9.39782365851105
2004 Q2 7.08458121282233 7.32647110034713 9.37003646858081
2004 Q3 7.22464389851806 7.1329710171671 9.44388668441935
2004 Q4 7.38723077263644 7.35764664374504 9.26114835120254
2005 Q1 7.32917941814877 7.13275315140915 9.31065099642544
2005 Q2 7.22660487679914 7.23954663273904 9.33758003277861
2005 Q3 7.29780317557567 7.1336685765605 9.21271668132922
2005 Q4 7.31446320120849 7.16293051841854 8.72508548616067
2006 Q1 7.33561707630944 7.14530038450348 7.89196968562363
2006 Q2 7.28635876215091 7.16675840355528 7.86262318688637
2006 Q3 7.38541886850444 7.32856591869393 7.97983076413703
2006 Q4 7.39623359475727 7.3377713333605 7.92366182822097
2007 Q1 7.21594527419747 7.02426178644847 7.78835360022855
2007 Q2 6.93150107506769 6.84802666704698 7.80647424127618
2007 Q3 6.62403951845439 6.97107496592197 7.84201057956431
2007 Q4 5.78809082273889 6.3095037528421 7.87126007738245
2008 Q1 5.49192539560951 6.14080521128312 7.72801112177441
2008 Q2 5.56591813753931 6.06146723331729 7.76074919068592
2008 Q3 5.27337907392772 6.57265678269551 7.72247141270615
2008 Q4 4.82171790503559 5.78821766986509 7.38117324672855
2009 Q1 4.98786929863646 6.43481828538036 6.77574966811115
2009 Q2 6.39866328285773 7.10205677816511 6.65919999395013
2009 Q3 7.86941766687847 7.53114842054012 6.71740772040857
2009 Q4 8.28479352751373 7.56456345770643 8.39228572979304
2010 Q1 8.66185786564987 7.99943179110493 9.03262630197393
2010 Q2 9.1623044251506 8.48672931037273 10.3937543819173
2010 Q3 9.52798605076388 8.80370339666374 10.7392321878622
2010 Q4 9.82729535869149 9.35411252311209 11.1772284326363
2011 Q1 9.98094180714629 9.82674691229566 11.5262708484784
2011 Q2 10.1965801870064 10.0441632897226 11.5957368989228
2011 Q3 10.2120602565073 9.94414786821839 11.9137064033591
2011 Q4 10.5884257626517 10.0413150989924 12.1432786994182
2012 Q1 11.0201639777141 10.3328133019193 12.0289421460757
2012 Q2 11.2102392318496 10.2476759086696 12.0992436610329
2012 Q3 11.4360267985445 10.358191313497 12.1364354559741
2012 Q4 11.6650871394338 10.3382526280086 11.7651735287082
2013 Q1 10.9078692098811 10.6745482500216 11.9038694705695
2013 Q2 11.1851563719904 10.8163716600786 11.9743348793651
2013 Q3 11.4394129289127 10.9214214363282 12.1063257545901
2013 Q4 11.5982120722012 10.9672713134568 12.1294837784775
2014 Q1 12.456414525109 11.2397015176565 12.4153054712417
2014 Q2 11.5814228308514 11.2128027118303 12.4720080699746
2014 Q3 11.6989999799206 11.2802162683468 11.7775097166736
2014 Q4 11.7062351319935 11.2404416533419 11.701847562475
2015 Q1 11.4621445047462 11.2904685521277 12.2314285058968
2015 Q2 11.8261648837789 11.2006768302469 12.5151669895538
2015 Q3 12.101788751016 11.5028953769249 12.2310749096624
2015 Q4 12.007935327401 11.4913545131248 12.4110286594894
2016 Q1 11.890543823915 11.532575833821 12.2877922304291
2016 Q2 12.0740319837407 11.6503539044188 12.0416524472364
2016 Q3 12.2070822204446 11.6471014126018 12.0661488564425
2016 Q4 12.4012105735539 11.6267091128137 12.3227730023042
2017 Q1 12.3961266635022 11.8782827815132 12.459211113562
2017 Q2 12.6186252511375 11.8460110581304 12.4427732972743
2017 Q3 12.6825002648151 11.8858903122335 12.2300628223437
2017 Q4 12.3430450238585 11.6578973956955 12.2038386107816
2018 Q1 11.8740104609275 11.5118651500648 12.1686799235777
2018 Q2 12.0299085531283 11.6117611728259 12.2054407524192
2018 Q3 12.0951859817205 11.5853567160349 12.207823522597
2018 Q4 12.1662913641398 11.4287891655644 12.1466349731996
2019 Q1 12.2351311079426 11.586073562255 12.2541118465262
2019 Q2 12.3149229627307 11.6528501388695 12.0841214052306
2019 Q3 12.1232510625864 11.6019903709557 12.0216797003042
2019 Q4 12.0568639800431 11.4355773635728 12.1598406122007
2020 Q1 11.3971354777583 11.2280960416776 11.722846861427
2020 Q2 11.9405720187091 11.6953308644641 11.952512543079
2020 Q3 12.4626054663724 12.1046600656517 12.1053953644396
2020 Q4 12.5639594847026 12.396082851553 12.2034263259452
2021 Q1 12.5060383289907 12.7875767430035 12.5469898680839
2021 Q2 12.5132477018987 12.6076767729424 12.6862690599409
2021 Q3 12.3107185470637 12.4725939661472 12.7074733226382
2021 Q4 12.296965571019 12.0081376471046 12.6161342070994
2022 Q1 11.5493969261134 11.7877676322687 12.5312492257285
2022 Q2 11.7295425008794 11.5132453120793 12.1681377890183
2022 Q3 11.8814825384765 11.4027461791378 12.0422205989456
2022 Q4 12.2946748778461 11.1544079566233 12.1453571850264
2023 Q1 12.4981797602945 10.9753934598543 12.1986286694116
2023 Q2 12.5939524953032 11.3342118186813 12.2884169573187
2023 Q3 12.8832655752855 11.5999218834474 12.5707584236822
2023 Q4 12.9799006107861 11.6664758753157 12.7747423332263
2024 Q1 12.9377423499388 11.8076431787715 12.8795834986475
2024 Q2 13.0848837848703 12.1541168113885 12.9820371555565
2024 Q3 13.1045955810765 12.3791867545792 12.926558900875

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff. The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs) and intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Before 2014:Q1 (advanced-approaches BHCs) or before 2015:Q1 (non-advanced-approaches BHCs), the numerator of the common equity Tier 1 ratio is Tier 1 common capital. Afterward, the numerator is common equity Tier 1 capital. The denominator is risk-weighted assets. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

Figure 3.3. The fair value losses of banks' securities portfolios remained sizable

This is a stacked bar chart titled "The fair value losses of banks' securities portfolios remained sizable." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2017 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from -800 to 200 billion dollars. The data are quarterly and conclude in 2024:Q2. Two variables are shown on the chart. The first variable is labeled ‘Available-for-sale securities' (AFS) and is represented by dark blue bars which range from about -$320 to just under $100 billion. The second variable is labeled ‘Held-to-maturity securities' (HTM) and is represented by beige bars which range in magnitude from about -$390 to just over $40 billion in magnitude. The bars for each series are roughly the same size as the other in each period, with neither ever becoming more than about twice as big as the other. The two series collectively hover within a range of about -100 to 150 billion dollars until 2022:Q1, when both series see a pronounced drop to about a combined -300 billion dollars. They decline further to almost -700 billion in aggregate in 2022:Q3, then recover to about -500 billion in 2023:Q1. They decline again in 2023:Q3 to about -700 billion again and end the year in 2023:Q4 with an increase to about -475 billion. By the end of 2024:Q2, there's a slight decline to about -500 billion with AFS accounting for about -200 billion and HTM accounting for about -300 billion.

Note: The figure plots the difference between the fair and amortized cost values of the securities. Sample consists of all bank holding companies and commercial banks.

Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

Figure 3.4. The ratio of tangible common equity to tangible assets increased for banks of all categories

Percent of tangible assets

Date G-SIBs Large non–G-SIBs Other BHCs
1985 Q1 4.723708871 4.853564598 6.360394872
1985 Q2 4.591253458 4.634877291 6.348122667
1985 Q3 4.795234516 4.546208177 6.360824247
1985 Q4 4.959676087 4.490222836 6.355513511
1986 Q1 4.931461882 4.523536809 6.427585376
1986 Q2 5.070040723 4.387604724 6.365981669
1986 Q3 5.279672834 4.56389327 6.381876154
1986 Q4 4.990291876 5.209794544 6.181487227
1987 Q1 5.054416022 6.091136269 6.296564291
1987 Q2 4.482015604 4.64762112 5.925400148
1987 Q3 4.305314505 4.849282629 6.013631445
1987 Q4 4.496993578 4.922194018 6.008948206
1988 Q1 4.54001116 5.130309603 5.964388517
1988 Q2 4.753405412 5.106071307 6.018342118
1988 Q3 4.482108955 5.10490784 6.12379431
1988 Q4 5.096562281 5.423379044 6.234329781
1989 Q1 5.086732206 5.327660573 6.300071507
1989 Q2 5.239452303 5.341747458 6.313610699
1989 Q3 4.959274419 5.171619806 6.206333019
1989 Q4 4.840103457 4.700754442 6.205921854
1990 Q1 4.93437274 4.654524082 6.276535732
1990 Q2 4.965348608 4.80802027 6.260961733
1990 Q3 4.825844337 4.873449675 6.251693127
1990 Q4 4.904285141 5.214657828 6.300626822
1991 Q1 5.066677651 5.271855997 6.417291733
1991 Q2 4.853249563 5.268294514 6.472312536
1991 Q3 4.811411782 4.81735287 6.511614804
1991 Q4 5.011369172 4.876159563 6.672769699
1992 Q1 5.47309079 4.77193196 6.784014062
1992 Q2 5.606345511 4.787669526 7.113738641
1992 Q3 5.688631652 5.037678829 7.234961258
1992 Q4 5.793703357 5.886162213 7.391217317
1993 Q1 6.000909306 6.138303783 7.569903453
1993 Q2 6.168939198 6.077816879 7.718443339
1993 Q3 6.333002058 6.211314425 7.737608042
1993 Q4 6.458768835 6.54754076 7.856971492
1994 Q1 5.957215742 5.74091578 7.788656519
1994 Q2 6.05870973 5.826781911 7.699388657
1994 Q3 5.854857011 6.106816404 7.728551608
1994 Q4 5.49608754 6.290875057 7.621593976
1995 Q1 5.307482119 5.876082383 7.741657667
1995 Q2 5.525387274 6.227675997 7.808137984
1995 Q3 5.574039518 6.257184934 7.869365451
1995 Q4 5.654076616 6.314483524 7.94540031
1996 Q1 5.924373564 6.309985222 7.950853435
1996 Q2 5.778755927 6.269286855 7.815142059
1996 Q3 5.97686384 6.182687435 7.759637205
1996 Q4 5.775515403 6.120912145 7.779401337
1997 Q1 5.408075907 6.039047041 7.816660435
1997 Q2 5.320941083 5.892110857 7.725410595
1997 Q3 5.40306157 5.816573787 7.763542642
1997 Q4 5.327831998 5.800344221 7.828877912
1998 Q1 5.414585831 5.623754854 7.834194148
1998 Q2 5.772072434 5.62963479 7.864170268
1998 Q3 5.939293267 5.502905372 7.823400336
1998 Q4 5.685646451 5.511542707 7.782429411
1999 Q1 5.770528127 5.674669247 7.715038553
1999 Q2 5.707909291 5.584767478 7.613737505
1999 Q3 5.770676814 5.542999632 7.520637768
1999 Q4 5.623908414 5.332532707 7.382114251
2000 Q1 5.679131017 5.239861634 7.309887322
2000 Q2 5.427136654 5.107717757 7.371544802
2000 Q3 5.523255371 5.405890227 7.488397032
2000 Q4 5.538873016 5.878434866 7.729817642
2001 Q1 4.886065021 5.704205039 7.560712169
2001 Q2 4.823214924 5.098577002 7.714432341
2001 Q3 4.463183492 5.024288792 7.902724942
2001 Q4 4.625132448 4.781321045 7.77771871
2002 Q1 4.558247545 4.906137026 7.804363624
2002 Q2 4.678258472 5.089198758 7.939080202
2002 Q3 4.843664765 5.336354416 7.957632413
2002 Q4 4.798037142 5.414766397 7.984733927
2003 Q1 4.723983226 5.408823485 7.932316171
2003 Q2 4.772703745 5.325630685 7.76069148
2003 Q3 4.715013032 5.256421605 7.718510252
2003 Q4 4.538257174 5.275416735 7.763733271
2004 Q1 4.505290413 5.359148605 7.970126434
2004 Q2 4.03764036 4.750195877 7.579756644
2004 Q3 4.30482244 4.429038033 7.971969752
2004 Q4 4.415323202 4.23409231 8.170527171
2005 Q1 4.218170292 3.867788832 7.968034189
2005 Q2 4.331699027 4.351906854 8.131857142
2005 Q3 4.295522388 3.997456108 8.067591203
2005 Q4 4.229191324 4.131053733 7.960494692
2006 Q1 4.036554384 3.748099057 7.847055152
2006 Q2 3.880600249 3.682486202 7.811063941
2006 Q3 4.068974027 3.896810984 8.043304868
2006 Q4 4.011696208 4.291652401 8.03366185
2007 Q1 3.804553767 4.20752197 7.977767013
2007 Q2 3.511443485 4.135163927 7.902150312
2007 Q3 3.388240276 4.22821487 7.916282148
2007 Q4 3.135497093 3.960696125 7.934475062
2008 Q1 2.91411269 3.675728492 7.930746142
2008 Q2 2.859278768 3.704736636 7.781898874
2008 Q3 2.243326028 3.496488744 7.604373884
2008 Q4 2.273103159 3.640653595 7.521096991
2009 Q1 2.67933521 4.014811929 7.529586213
2009 Q2 3.361885394 4.628849904 7.58954606
2009 Q3 4.3084317 4.806841659 7.89520007
2009 Q4 4.693365937 4.780176581 8.055345837
2010 Q1 4.763910344 4.799794284 8.309093512
2010 Q2 5.210454901 5.397447946 8.62136044
2010 Q3 5.46843084 5.633208532 8.811593695
2010 Q4 5.596848259 6.40684079 8.763382292
2011 Q1 5.695973386 6.656620517 8.928253761
2011 Q2 5.848113981 6.932739532 9.158614841
2011 Q3 6.053885039 7.23154201 9.289332026
2011 Q4 6.289225452 7.191335698 9.436337832
2012 Q1 6.352083071 7.299413923 9.478195756
2012 Q2 6.571008761 7.416262131 9.644256263
2012 Q3 6.714592399 7.57191211 9.698793345
2012 Q4 6.708523743 7.559310272 9.570706271
2013 Q1 6.78531699 7.826984606 9.709232115
2013 Q2 6.773241437 7.785458972 9.5691227
2013 Q3 6.801796823 7.912536788 9.595496955
2013 Q4 6.92711934 8.01943043 9.700198559
2014 Q1 6.988709747 8.150699395 9.726463871
2014 Q2 7.085307499 8.310728368 9.876524164
2014 Q3 7.184197004 8.333693895 9.689892301
2014 Q4 7.212054402 8.288204569 9.708681995
2015 Q1 7.295722495 8.423789738 9.719632833
2015 Q2 7.456086972 8.331780749 9.724015522
2015 Q3 7.639175749 8.554379152 9.739879098
2015 Q4 7.772781995 8.3816206 9.743397036
2016 Q1 7.743095807 8.488536773 9.7812142
2016 Q2 7.764894251 8.554786433 9.798414929
2016 Q3 7.772725539 8.346570778 9.774730276
2016 Q4 7.717807473 8.223055535 9.581796809
2017 Q1 7.644319624 8.280800943 9.700891073
2017 Q2 7.716920652 8.261127385 9.789195566
2017 Q3 7.686036563 8.390211847 9.782341156
2017 Q4 7.362722232 8.241584056 9.689467344
2018 Q1 7.174753478 8.191983997 9.5972974
2018 Q2 7.293771774 8.274877673 9.626245847
2018 Q3 7.199670629 8.257121628 9.661400254
2018 Q4 7.222332619 8.28359947 9.77554662
2019 Q1 7.208223271 8.437803872 9.99775931
2019 Q2 7.212891425 8.62770909 10.11371516
2019 Q3 7.041445743 8.63417532 10.08023694
2019 Q4 7.001961945 8.459666056 10.09537154
2020 Q1 6.311132178 7.870805033 9.714898174
2020 Q2 6.245893179 7.908282748 9.155120277
2020 Q3 6.431607248 8.12256619 9.229859234
2020 Q4 6.370966207 8.181178548 9.319828623
2021 Q1 6.075640663 7.948431412 9.001960233
2021 Q2 6.158046511 7.972261126 9.158317338
2021 Q3 6.020888446 7.841879087 9.199703718
2021 Q4 6.044080154 7.520779634 9.055440676
2022 Q1 5.621997165 6.862185963 8.332762358
2022 Q2 5.76385838 6.491585169 7.981928108
2022 Q3 5.832061519 5.994718788 7.619268532
2022 Q4 6.056206899 5.926476811 7.830239841
2023 Q1 6.064335819 6.066732403 7.996180896
2023 Q2 6.121694935 6.116722846 8.016800644
2023 Q3 6.191754918 6.101861051 7.946513303
2023 Q4 6.250543389 6.534324777 8.509049199
2024 Q1 6.089321459 6.48100167 8.550098982
2024 Q2 6.210668307 6.874513103 8.645747469

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff. The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs), intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence, and commercial banks. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Bank equity is total equity capital net of preferred equity and intangible assets. Bank assets are total assets net of intangible assets. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: For data through 1996, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report). For data from 1997 onward, Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies; and Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Call Report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report).

Figure 3.5. The financial condition of firms with commercial and industrial bank loans remained sound

This is a line chart titled "The financial condition of firms with commercial and industrial bank loans remained sound". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2014 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 24 to 36 percent and shows debt as percentage of assets. The data are quarterly and conclude in 2024:Q2. There are two variables plotted. The first line, labeled 'Non-publicly-traded firms,' is designated by a blue line, and ranges from about 30 to 34 percent. This variable begins near 32 percentage points, dips to about 30 percent towards the end of 2013, rises slowly to 34 percentage points through 2019 before decreasing back down to 33 percentage points where it hovered through 2020. It decreased throughout 2021 but leveled off in 2022 at around 31 percentage points. In 2023, it spiked up to 32 in the second quarter before dropping back down to end just above 31 percent. By the end of 2024:Q2, it increased to around 32 percentage points. The second line, labeled 'Publicly traded firms,' is designated by a black line and ranges from about 24 to 31 percent. This variable begins at about 25 percentage points and increases steadily to 31 percentage points in 2020. Then, it steadily decreases to below 30 percent through 2024:Q2, ending at 29 percent.

Note: The figure shows the weighted median leverage of nonfinancial firms that borrow using commercial and industrial loans from the 24 banks that have filed in every quarter since 2013:Q1. Leverage is measured as the ratio of the book value of total debt to the book value of total assets of the borrower, as reported by the lender, and the median is weighted by committed amounts.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

Figure 3.6. Credit standards for commercial and industrial loans were little changed in the first half of 2024

This is a line chart titled "Credit standards for commercial and industrial loans were little changed in the first half of 2024". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 1999 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from -100 to 100 and the units are net percentages of banks reporting tightening lending standards. The quarterly data begin in 1997:Q1 and end in 2024:Q2. Data points above zero to 100 are labeled ‘Tightening' and data points below zero to -100 are labeled ‘Easing'. There is one variable charted on the plot. The series is designated by a black line. The series begins around zero. In 2000:Q4, the series spikes to almost 80 percent, and remains elevated during the recession period in 2001. This falls to almost -60 percent in 2004 and then increases but remains negative until 2007. The series then spikes again during 2008, reaching a maximum of over 80 percent. The series then bounces between -20 percent and 20 percent between 2009 and 2019, before spiking again in early 2020 to roughly 70 percent. The series then falls to roughly -50 percent in 2021:Q2 before rising again to roughly 30 percent through 2023:Q2. The series sharply drops in the end of 2023, ending at about 4 percent in 2023:Q4. The series falls back to about 1 percent in 2024:Q2. There is also a horizontal line marked at zero.

Note: Banks' responses are weighted by their commercial and industrial loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. Results are shown for loans to large and medium-sized firms. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 3.7. Leverage at broker-dealers remained near historical lows

Ratio of assets to equity

Date Calculated Leverage
1995 Q1 30.5982069909687
1995 Q2 30.715053408215
1995 Q3 31.3075187485227
1995 Q4 31.8437861119866
1996 Q1 33.1163299730913
1996 Q2 33.1013331739105
1996 Q3 33.3441693368288
1996 Q4 33.8799653746273
1997 Q1 35.2828507392546
1997 Q2 35.2869330076762
1997 Q3 35.498408212325
1997 Q4 32.9736871252037
1998 Q1 35.5055261963666
1998 Q2 35.0070818698421
1998 Q3 35.0660341830823
1998 Q4 30.4295790511052
1999 Q1 30.9114567834438
1999 Q2 29.3661582531347
1999 Q3 28.4326362993834
1999 Q4 28.557997841401
2000 Q1 29.8598214667065
2000 Q2 28.8894217207334
2000 Q3 28.5148996842856
2000 Q4 28.2648060796646
2001 Q1 28.5606199261993
2001 Q2 30.0320462611084
2001 Q3 31.4661945806851
2001 Q4 31.338968071904
2002 Q1 31.6577101403855
2002 Q2 31.2599437339207
2002 Q3 31.7889909984558
2002 Q4 30.6285592336147
2003 Q1 32.0302453053945
2003 Q2 34.7878365208373
2003 Q3 32.9734923391743
2003 Q4 33.6675097743329
2004 Q1 35.5833439029959
2004 Q2 37.7700967206065
2004 Q3 38.5887403329401
2004 Q4 39.2777396924885
2005 Q1 41.0738134100422
2005 Q2 41.4384392576605
2005 Q3 41.9749640265142
2005 Q4 39.880072868668
2006 Q1 40.503497005644
2006 Q2 40.6512138000326
2006 Q3 42.2873796143481
2006 Q4 43.0107629130303
2007 Q1 45.2778193125806
2007 Q2 46.8994959572924
2007 Q3 46.0204176455575
2007 Q4 46.2983034482759
2008 Q1 47.89183041899
2008 Q2 41.8661248648791
2008 Q3 43.2122746457033
2008 Q4 30.7077441601937
2009 Q1 28.3215972520395
2009 Q2 24.8998622255598
2009 Q3 24.9618375682385
2009 Q4 23.5052722711834
2010 Q1 24.5069614762614
2010 Q2 24.0433659395688
2010 Q3 24.3100066525033
2010 Q4 23.5247459227071
2011 Q1 24.2946419130198
2011 Q2 24.440313072373
2011 Q3 24.5657173756309
2011 Q4 24.6372270220987
2012 Q1 24.5318749709241
2012 Q2 24.4307914783732
2012 Q3 23.8525335546291
2012 Q4 23.4598855351307
2013 Q1 22.8428439449133
2013 Q2 22.1486328871893
2013 Q3 21.8371631014628
2013 Q4 21.097681616223
2014 Q1 21.1277118963169
2014 Q2 21.3475737106516
2014 Q3 20.7180067422846
2014 Q4 19.8169499480063
2015 Q1 19.7323566984349
2015 Q2 19.3348381307379
2015 Q3 18.8285458657231
2015 Q4 18.1493925866296
2016 Q1 18.1237576000291
2016 Q2 18.3046870769175
2016 Q3 18.035854625629
2016 Q4 17.6136082150251
2017 Q1 17.7695777550781
2017 Q2 18.307554150652
2017 Q3 17.4100389829624
2017 Q4 17.1500899174335
2018 Q1 17.2055763771559
2018 Q2 18.0641742412777
2018 Q3 17.9034846949206
2018 Q4 18.1021874008148
2019 Q1 17.9141401902138
2019 Q2 17.8151545552476
2019 Q3 17.7799223151373
2019 Q4 16.8651391545337
2020 Q1 17.2645675852628
2020 Q2 16.2564523706339
2020 Q3 16.5385023470571
2020 Q4 16.6195957937861
2021 Q1 16.582882045479
2021 Q2 16.2245377135745
2021 Q3 16.2545560469413
2021 Q4 15.7850315685682
2022 Q1 17.6559734587943
2022 Q2 17.2151009687427
2022 Q3 16.9552319201328
2022 Q4 15.9521612582599
2023 Q1 16.9887092251612
2023 Q2 16.9454259925785
2023 Q3 16.6431064813536
2023 Q4 17.081807501296
2024 Q1 17.6595377126765
2024 Q2 17.6485245979411

Note: Leverage is calculated by dividing total assets by equity.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Figure 3.8. Trading profits in the first half of 2024 were within the range of the past 5 years

This is a line chart titled "Trading profits in the first half of 2024 were within the range of the past 5 years". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2018 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1000, and the units are in millions of dollars. The data is a monthly average and ends in June 2024. There is one variable charted on the plot. The series is designated by a black line and ranges from about 125 to nearly 900 million dollars. This variable begins just under 600 million dollars and drops to about 125 million towards the end of 2018. It rises sharply to nearly 900 million dollars in early 2020, then decreases back down to around 375 million at the end of 2020 before spiking back up near 900 million dollars in early 2021. It decreases throughout 2021 to 277 million in December 2021, then spiked to 700 million dollars in January 2022. It declined throughout 2022 to about 270 million in December but saw another beginning-of-year spike to 700 million in January 2023. The series declined throughout 2023, with a particularly sharp decline occurring from a value of about 400 million in November 2023 to a value of about 200 million in December 2023. The series experienced a sharp incline to a value of about 650 million in January 2024 but declined again to a final value of about 500 million in June 2024.

Note: Sample includes all trading desks of bank holding companies subject to the Volcker rule reporting requirement.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Disclosure Requirements Associated with Regulation VV (Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in and Relationships with Covered Funds, 12 C.F.R. pt. 248).

Figure 3.9. The current distribution of the sources of broker-dealer trading profits was in line with recent averages

This is a stacked line chart titled "The current distribution of the sources of broker-dealer trading profits was in line with recent averages". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2018 to 2024. The y-axis measures percent and ranges from 0 to 100. The data are a monthly average and end in June 2024. There are 3 variables charted on the plot, which represent the total share of trading profits by trading desks. The first variable, "Equity," is designated by red shading. This variable remains steady at around 35 percent except for a spike at the end of 2018 to about 50 percent and a dip in the beginning of 2020 to about 20 percent. Towards the end of 2023, the series increased at about 40 percent, and then decreased to about 30 percent by June 2024. The second variable, "Fixed income, rates, and credit," is designated by blue shading. This variable remains steady around 40 percent except for decreases at the end of 2018 and in early- to mid-2022. The series drops to about 20 percent in December 2023, sharply increased to about 45 percent in January 2024 before dropping back down to about 30 percent in June. The third variable, "Other," is designated by beige shading. This variable increases from about 25 percent in 2018 to its peak in mid-2022 at about 50 percent before declining to about 30 percent in June 2024.

Note: Sample includes all trading desks of bank holding companies subject to the Volcker rule reporting requirement. The "other" category comprises desks trading in municipal securities, foreign exchange, and commodities, as well as any unclassified desks. The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Disclosure Requirements Associated with Regulation VV (Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in and Relationships with Covered Funds, 12 C.F.R. pt. 248).

Figure 3.10. Leverage at life insurers remained above the average observed in the previous 15 years

Ratio of assets to equity

Date Life Property and casualty
2001 Q1 8.36031592904979 5.40366999054728
2001 Q2 8.82585020638108 5.50412551164979
2001 Q3 9.44648974468406 6.22182224835869
2001 Q4 10.0257613115708 6.37394498076952
2002 Q1 9.63267975864237 6.24076941311445
2002 Q2 9.83256013883607 6.32269224424177
2002 Q3 10.1421354633282 6.41022916044875
2002 Q4 10.7948494380913 6.68349138015935
2003 Q1 11.0444036093948 6.7833902086454
2003 Q2 11.1563035459124 6.70037995131541
2003 Q3 11.000398484302 6.7172004844303
2003 Q4 10.9304909789063 6.70370328861639
2004 Q1 11.2863214243631 7.06100776622827
2004 Q2 11.3744519555969 6.75748631863471
2004 Q3 11.4750119231756 6.81601828574753
2004 Q4 11.6809163612236 6.82214880580096
2005 Q1 11.3044628735615 6.80749606424375
2005 Q2 10.6703534385654 6.6004657121062
2005 Q3 10.7843575460794 6.65878500411083
2005 Q4 10.8665204481768 6.48494682126386
2006 Q1 10.1954602542759 6.49722074825504
2006 Q2 10.0528558240603 6.39496711081614
2006 Q3 9.99070093624306 6.37042087836768
2006 Q4 9.94287031129512 6.29856308315291
2007 Q1 10.0314779911839 6.33680204150944
2007 Q2 9.8638303456092 6.32884725452754
2007 Q3 9.95656898579367 6.32929534189629
2007 Q4 9.73530665175089 6.08790498855485
2008 Q1 10.8557363070755 6.51333978154224
2008 Q2 10.7318206803053 6.4242324390778
2008 Q3 10.6872549094968 6.44578050059924
2008 Q4 10.8902998311562 5.96232123479701
2009 Q1 10.9093268151654 5.93918956547545
2009 Q2 10.0465788403065 5.60426130443896
2009 Q3 10.002488074213 5.57495421228905
2009 Q4 8.9444814617033 5.20132043363706
2010 Q1 9.24486321131444 5.16936699560405
2010 Q2 9.45005632526028 5.10355912993602
2010 Q3 9.73333363099908 5.18124847875797
2010 Q4 8.83655882827124 4.47788908728588
2011 Q1 9.73677012147704 4.62375003464552
2011 Q2 9.39889518893452 4.57562730425394
2011 Q3 9.47920180851116 4.41355795225886
2011 Q4 8.89180077429662 4.15631669274047
2012 Q1 8.85456724424128 4.14630955257915
2012 Q2 8.85769201088038 4.11755934675802
2012 Q3 9.19988171427961 4.16587552806339
2012 Q4 9.44261893518498 4.17857925771241
2013 Q1 9.2742684511091 4.10095338425342
2013 Q2 8.89309346916342 3.97245336982574
2013 Q3 8.67025335773517 3.92325820422153
2013 Q4 8.79813217242249 3.90056546307124
2014 Q1 8.54716656250108 3.87545478979077
2014 Q2 8.41872558950105 3.69426372107717
2014 Q3 8.3632004931639 3.64749726657816
2014 Q4 8.59546271991882 3.59439574531624
2015 Q1 8.42868478181508 3.55128755077522
2015 Q2 8.1572955022327 3.52714996532411
2015 Q3 8.37438136701651 3.47373609933601
2015 Q4 9.0388786741166 3.4696401622171
2016 Q1 9.52213703297625 3.56438923527121
2016 Q2 9.95370322118838 3.57875634540778
2016 Q3 10.0745398355137 3.56339050794092
2016 Q4 9.90261697983825 3.80688883619266
2017 Q1 10.2218312833215 3.59615546668862
2017 Q2 10.118382598691 3.60435770452915
2017 Q3 9.83861699649113 3.65321181836285
2017 Q4 10.0451538497148 3.74092613525481
2018 Q1 9.97016509227598 3.30270328589855
2018 Q2 9.81671602031617 2.96934699748403
2018 Q3 9.84661235233072 2.93472094305505
2018 Q4 9.93687320610675 3.03834780664888
2019 Q1 10.2037077144556 3.02014547919425
2019 Q2 10.3406942751515 3.01451114704615
2019 Q3 10.5471835563598 2.98613506696692
2019 Q4 10.5409647188869 2.89859858469055
2020 Q1 10.3468581293056 3.04236079126112
2020 Q2 11.5366784826833 3.13949319886997
2020 Q3 11.690842189919 3.11880743660849
2020 Q4 11.8006989909297 3.0366416650099
2021 Q1 11.126864673964 3.01244406616379
2021 Q2 11.1898154656827 2.9864565959719
2021 Q3 11.5559072547711 3.00193108573707
2021 Q4 11.3271336126059 2.84791826819638
2022 Q1 10.8215334658364 2.81760705723627
2022 Q2 9.85314601820248 2.88421990749108
2022 Q3 9.90663023332299 2.8867333850887
2022 Q4 10.0760307908456 2.85546991072237
2023 Q1 10.5090281230355 2.84366760253297
2023 Q2 10.3910717337736 2.78751493163438
2023 Q3 9.91784836016146 2.79258154002356
2023 Q4 10.9131833914757 2.76413360989215
2024 Q1 10.8691280124246 2.74709922542572
2024 Q2 10.8065260901752 2.0844041838179

Note: Ratio is calculated as (total assets – separate account assets)/(total capital – accumulated other comprehensive income) using generally accepted accounting principles. The largest 10 publicly traded life and property and casualty insurers are represented.

Source: Generally accepted accounting principles data from 10-Q and 10-K filings accessed via S&P Global, Capital IQ Pro.

Figure 3.11. Hedge funds' leverage was at or near its highest level since data became available

This is a line chart titles "Hedge funds' leverage was at or near its highest level since data became available". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2013 to 2024. The y-axis measures the leverage ratio and ranges from 0 to 10. Data are quarterly. The chart includes two variables. The first variable is titled ‘Mean gross leverage' and is represented with a black line. This series starts around 6.5 and decreases to about 5.7 in 2015:Q4. The series then increases to a ratio of about 8 in 2020:Q1, before decreasing and the hovering between 7 and 8 through 2022. The series increased in recent quarters and reached its maximum value of about 9 in 2024:Q1, the last period for which data is available. The second variable is titled "Mean balance sheet leverage" and is represented with a blue line. The series starts slightly below 2 and remains relatively stable throughout the sample, reaching a local peak of about 2.1 in 2020:Q1. The series has increased slightly in recent quarters and reached its maximum value of around 2.3 in 2024:Q1, the last period for which data is available.

Note: Means are weighted by net asset value (NAV). On-balance-sheet leverage is the ratio of gross asset value to NAV. Gross leverage is the ratio of gross notional exposure to NAV. Gross notional exposure includes both on-balance-sheet exposures and off-balance-sheet derivative notional exposures. Options are delta adjusted, and interest rate derivatives are reported at 10-year bond equivalent values. The data are reported on a 2-quarter lag beginning in 2013:Q1.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Form PF, Reporting Form for Investment Advisers to Private Funds and Certain Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors.

Figure 3.12. Balance sheet leverage at the 15 largest hedge funds declined

This is a line chart titled "Balance sheet leverage at the 15 largest hedge funds declined". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2013 to 2024. The y-axis measures the leverage ratio, measured as gross asset value (GAV) divided by net asset value (NAV), and ranges from 0 to 30. Data are quarterly. The chart includes three variables. The first variable is titled "Top 15, by GAV" and is represented by a black line. The series starts at a ratio of about 11 and fluctuations around this level, on average, through 2017. The series increases through 2018 to a peak ratio of about 23 in 2019:Q2. The series then steadily declines to a ratio of about 12 in 2021:Q1 before increasing sharply to a ratio of about 21 in 2021:Q4. The series then declines to about 14 in 2022:Q3. After this, the series increases steadily to a ratio of about 18 in 2023:Q3, and then returns to about 14 in 2024:Q1, the last period for which data is available. The second variable is titled "16-50, by GAV" and is represented by a blue line. The series begins at a ratio of about 5 and remains around this level, with mild fluctuations, until the end of 2016. The series then increases to a peak ratio of about 11 in 2019:Q2. The series then decreases to a ratio of about 8 near the end of 2019 and fluctuates between about 6 and 9 throughout the sample. The series slightly increases to about 10 in 2024:Q1, the last period for which data is available. The third variable is titled "51+, by GAV" and is represented by a red line. This series begins near a ratio of about 1.5 and remains almost flat throughout the sample. The reading for 2024:Q1, the last period for the data, remains at about 1.5.

Note: Leverage is measured by gross asset value (GAV) divided by net asset value (NAV). Funds are sorted into cohorts based on GAV. Average leverage is computed as the NAV-weighted mean. The data are reported on a 2-quarter lag beginning in 2013:Q1.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Form PF, Reporting Form for Investment Advisers to Private Funds and Certain Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors.

Figure 3.13. Dealers indicated that the use of leverage by hedge funds remained largely unchanged for most clients

This is a line chart titled "Dealers indicated that the use of leverage by hedge funds remained largely unchanged for most clients". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2012 to 2024. The y-axis is net percentage and ranges from -80 to 40 percent. Data are quarterly. The first line, titled "Hedge funds", is designated by a solid black line. This series begins around -50 percent at the start of 2012 but rises to around 20 percent by 2013 and fluctuates between -20 and 20 percent between 2013 and 2022. In 2022, this series briefly dips below -20 percent before rising back to around 0 percent at the end of the year. The series drops to -14 percent in 2023:Q1 and recovers to about 0 percent through the end of 2023 and 2024:Q3. The second line, titled "Trading REITs", is designated by a solid blue line. This series begins around 0 percent at the start of 2012. It remains near this level until mid-2013, when it falls to around -35 percent for three quarters and then returns to roughly 0 percent. This series remains between about -5 and 5 percent until 2020, when it plummets to almost -80 percent. It then returns to around 0 percent by early 2021, where it remains through 2023. The series sharply increases in 2024:Q3 at about 25 percent. The third line, titled "Insurance companies", is designated by a solid red line. This series begins at 0 percent in 2012 and remains between -5 and 5 percent through 2021:Q3 where it increases 10 percent. The series returns to hovering between -5 and 5 percent through the end of 2023, and then jumps back to 9 percent in 2024:Q3. The fourth line, titled "Mutual funds", is designated by a dashed black line. This series begins around 0 percent and remains between 0 and 5 percent until 2020, when it briefly falls to about -20 percent. This series then recovers to around 0 percent by 2021 through 2022:Q2. In 2022:Q3, the series drops to below -10 percent and then bounces between -5 and 0 percent, but continues to be at 0 percent in 2024:Q3.

Note: Net percentage equals the percentage of institutions that reported increased use of financial leverage over the past 3 months minus the percentage of institutions that reported decreased use of financial leverage over the past 3 months. REIT is real estate investment trust.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms.

Figure 3.14. The pace of issuance of securitized products in 2024 has been strong

This is a stacked bar chart with five categories titled, "The pace of issuance of securitized products in 2024 has been strong". The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2001 to 2024. The data is annual and the bar for 2024 is annualized. The y-axis is in billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 3200. The sum of the five categories begins at about 1000 billion in 2001 and peak around 3000 billion in 2006. The total then drops to about 350 billion in 2008 and steadily increases to about 700 billion in 2019 before dropping slightly to about 550 billion in 2020. Then, the sum increases to 930 billion in 2021 before declining to around 500 billion in 2023. The series finishes in 2024 with a jump to about 750 billion, with the last data being available from 2024:Q2. ‘Other', represented in light gray, begins at about 260 billion in 2001, peaks at about 330 billion in 2006-2007, then drops to about 165 billion in 2008. The series rises to about 200 billion in 2009 before dipping back to around 115 billion in 2011. It generally rises through 2018, where it hits about 160 billion. The variable decreases to about 125 billion in 2020 before rising to around 160 billion in 2022. The series declines in 2023 to about 117 billion, then rises again in the final value to about 160 billion in 2024. ‘Private-label RMBS,' represented in black, begins at around 420 billion in 2001, peaks at about 1700 billion in 2005-2006, then drops sharply to 42 billion in 2008 and stays in decline through 2012 to a low of 21 billion. It then increases steadily to just over 125 billion in 2019 before dipping slightly in 2020 and spiking up to around 190 billion in 2021. The variable declines to 70 billion in 2023 and ticks up to about125 billion in 2024. ‘Non-agency CMBS', represented in red shading, begins at about 115 billion dollars in 2001, peaks at about 350 billion dollars in 2007, rapidly decreases to about 15 billion dollars in 2008, and reaches a low of about 3 billion dollars in 2009. It then slowly increases to just over 120 billion dollars in 2015. From this point, it alternates back and forth from about 115 billion dollars to around 80 billion, reaching just over 130 billion dollars in 2021 before declining to about 75 billion dollars in 2022 and 40 billion in 2023. For the annualized 2024 data, the series recovers to about 100 billion dollars. ‘Auto loan/lease ABS,' represented in dark blue, begins at about 140 billion dollars in 2001 and remains around that level until 2008 where it decreases to 50 billion dollars. The bar increases to about 110 billion dollars by 2012 and gradually increases to around 150 billion dollars by 2021. It declines to around 120 billion dollars in 2022 and rises to around 150 billion in 2023 and then 180 billion in 2024. The bar representing ‘CDOs (including CLOs and ABS CDOs)', represented in beige, begins at about 95 billion dollars in 2001, increases rapidly and peaks at about 575 billion dollars in 2006. It then drops to about 75 billion dollars by 2008 and then 6 billion dollars in 2010. It increases to about 260 billion dollars in 2021, then decreases to 118 billion dollars in 2023. The series is at about 180 billion for the final bar in 2024.

Note: The data from the first quarter of 2024 are annualized to create the 2024 bar. RMBS is residential mortgage-backed securities; CMBS is commercial mortgage-backed securities; CDO is collateralized debt obligation; CLO is collateralized loan obligation. The "other" category consists of other asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by credit card debt, student loans, equipment, floor plans, and miscellaneous receivables; resecuritized real estate mortgage investment conduit (Re-REMIC) RMBS; and Re-REMIC CMBS. The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Green Street, Commercial Mortgage Alert's CMBS Database and Asset-Backed Alert's ABS Database; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 3.15. Growth of bank credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions slowed in recent quarters

This is a stacked line chart titled "Growth of bank credit commitments to nonbank financial institutions slowed in recent quarters". The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2018 to 2024. The y-axis measures billions of dollars and ranges from 0 to 2250. The data are quarterly and end in 2024:Q2. There are 10 variables charted on the plot, which sum up to represent total committed amounts extended to nonbank financials by large banks. The overall trend has been steadily increasing from about 1300 billion in 2018 to about 2100 billion dollars in 2024:Q2. The first variable, 'Financial transactions processing', is designated by orange shading. This variable increases steadily from about 21 billion in 2018 to about 30 billion in 2024:Q2. The second variable, 'Private equity, BDCs, and credit funds', is designated by turquoise shading. This variable steadily increases from 48 billion in 2018 to 80 billion in 2024:Q2. The third variable, 'Broker-dealers', is designated by light blue shading. This variable steadily increases from 106 billion in 2018 to 195 billion in 2024:Q2. The fourth variable, 'Insurance companies', is designated by medium blue shading. This variable decreases from 139 billion in 2018 to 107 billion in 2019:Q1 before increasing modestly to 115 billion in 2019:Q2 where it hovers between 112 billion and 120 billion through 2021:Q4, then rises to 150 billion by 2024:Q2. The fifth variable, 'REITs', is designated by red shading. It begins around 118 billion in 2018:Q1 and increases to 122 billion in 2018:Q3. It then falls steadily through 2024:Q2 where it ends at 31 billion. The sixth variable, 'Open-end investment funds', is designated by green shading. This variable begins at 103 billion in 2018 and increases steadily to around 205 billion in 2024:Q2. The seventh variable, 'Special purpose entities, CLOs, and ABS', is designated by light gray shading. This variable starts at 124 billion in 2018 and increases steadily to end at 400 billion in 2024:Q2. The eighth variable, 'Other financial vehicles', is designated by black shading. This variable increases steadily from 198 billion in 2018 to end around 405 billion in 2024:Q2. The ninth variable, 'Real estate lenders and lessors', is designated by beige shading. This variable increases steadily from 160 billion in 2018:Q1 to about 360 billion in 2024:Q2. The tenth variable, 'Consumer lenders, other lenders, and lessors', is designated by dark blue shading. This variable starts at 180 billion in 2018 and remains at about that level until 2019:Q2, where it decreases to 163 billion. It then increases steadily throughout the rest of the plotted period, rising to 235 billion in 2024:Q2.

Note: Committed amounts on credit lines and term loans extended to nonbank financial institutions by a balanced panel of 24 bank holding companies that have filed Form FR Y-14Q in every quarter since 2018:Q1. Nonbank financial institutions are identified based on reported North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. In addition to NAICS codes, a name-matching algorithm is applied to identify specific entities such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), special purpose entities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and asset-backed securities (ABS). BDC is business development company. REITs incorporate both mortgage (trading) REITs and equity REITs. Broker-dealers also include commodity contracts dealers and brokerages and other securities and commodity exchanges. Other financial vehicles include closed-end investment and mutual funds.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

Figure 3.16. Aggregate credit commitments to special purpose entities, collateralized loan obligations, and asset-backed securities grew rapidly as commitments to real estate investment trusts shrank between 2023:Q2 and 2024:Q2

This is a bar chart titled "Aggregate credit commitments to special purpose entities, collateralized loan obligations, and asset-backed securities grew rapidly as commitments to real estate investment trusts shrank between 2023:Q2 and 2024:Q2". The x-axis shows the ten different sectors of NBFIs and a total column. The y-axis represents percent growth of loan commitments and utilization rates to NBFIs and ranges from -40 to 30 percent. The data are quarterly. The chart shows the 2024:Q2-over-2023:Q2 growth rate. There are two variables plotted on the chart for each sector. ‘Committed amounts' is represented as a red bar and ‘utilized amounts' is represented as a light gray bar. From left to right, the first sector is ‘REITs'. This sector saw its committed amount shrink by about 18 percent and its utilized amount shrink by about 30 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The second sector is ‘Financial transactions processing' which saw its committed amount shrink by about 24 percent and saw its utilized amount shrink by about 7 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The third sector is ‘Consumer, leasing, & other lenders'. This sector saw its committed amount grow by about 5 percent and saw its utilized amount shrink by about -0.1 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The fourth sector is ‘Insurance companies' which saw their committed amount grow by about 8 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 1 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The fifth sector is ‘PE, BDCs & credit funds'. This sector their committed amount grow by about .1 percent and saw their utilized amount shrink by about 10 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The sixth sector is ‘Broker-dealers' which saw their committed amount grow by about .1 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 3 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The seventh sector is ‘Open-end investment funds' which have seen their committed amount grow by about 12 percent and their utilized amount grow by about 10 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The eighth sector is ‘SPEs, CLOs, & ABS'. This sector saw its committed amount grow by about 17 percent and saw its utilized amount grow by about 10 percent as 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The ninth sector is ‘Real estate lenders & lessors'. This sector saw both its committed amount and utilized amount shrink by about 2 percent as 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. The tenth sector is ‘Other financial vehicles' which saw their committed amount shrink by about 0.2 percent and their utilized amount increases by about 5 percent as of 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2. Lastly, there are two bars showing the total for all NBFIs, which show their committed amounts grew by about 4 percent and saw their utilized amount grow by about 3 percent as 2024:Q2 vs 2023:Q2.

Note: The figure shows 2024:Q2-over-2023:Q2 growth rates as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. REIT is real estate investment trust; PE is private equity; BDC is business development company; SPE is special purpose entity; CLO is collateralized loan obligation; ABS is asset-backed securities. The key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

Figure 4.1. Ratio of runnable money-like liabilities to GDP remained around its historical median

Percent of GDP

Date Other Securities lending Commercial paper Domestic money market funds Repurchase agreements Uninsured deposits
2002 Q1 74.417502097761 67.1781976587495 64.478610462092 51.4313526162656 30.2496833994065 11.2213538044234
2002 Q2 74.7924825712215 67.534062739058 64.7607804267335 52.4197477157063 32.0516333896835 11.4801712047765
2002 Q3 75.8885142141276 68.419444319984 65.5793236407523 53.4167227553853 33.3389990763019 12.3815075882257
2002 Q4 76.986029960558 69.2268666666668 66.2699262180625 53.8819022726117 33.5771925061043 12.8816494167731
2003 Q1 77.2761407005617 69.2539366852348 66.2949587224026 54.1768332675853 34.2045380369384 13.1955359210072
2003 Q2 78.184093906183 70.0811601266068 67.0614743543424 55.3607642875443 36.3793521966964 14.0221193541991
2003 Q3 75.5360089557633 67.6982803288434 64.659981293263 53.4956178044908 35.1435690570655 13.5069257329103
2003 Q4 75.4505180816026 66.6593572785634 63.6280719158743 52.6822221738297 35.2166162404105 13.5338506885407
2004 Q1 77.1942067708421 68.1946612676912 65.1694455607309 54.0571974608709 37.2403242306157 14.0374265695776
2004 Q2 76.8840766798005 67.7852393650986 64.7471346801017 54.0147822893951 37.9110277121147 14.4192314429104
2004 Q3 78.6667401438073 69.2641080825093 66.2337894187942 55.6207185928033 40.0017548941866 14.66919895473
2004 Q4 78.082614655194 68.7324793101391 65.638575218038 54.5025472263617 39.3648419605833 15.1441066110524
2005 Q1 78.7497357018044 69.4629069041191 66.3266098600352 55.0826695229283 40.4356620592172 15.042028041311
2005 Q2 80.3268008247326 71.1347000972697 67.7506434640312 56.1828514652588 41.9170846858393 15.1564307161029
2005 Q3 81.659376084268 72.5842060437845 69.2118247431243 57.3657443320995 42.9403266725452 15.281148795558
2005 Q4 81.8956307006011 72.8365693038608 69.4979082768792 57.1887376951061 42.3595529022784 15.7771740910611
2006 Q1 83.4331444476019 74.3353708624819 71.1284817211558 58.6452843372618 43.7109158419527 15.4926202128477
2006 Q2 84.4884979474473 75.1575083063321 72.0385031682611 59.210955273415 44.2517734725776 15.7642597820096
2006 Q3 88.1241897922443 78.2041700075729 75.2160346524135 61.7725042234392 46.156282342861 15.466179927928
2006 Q4 89.4273204285437 79.0704895937522 76.1790171244794 62.2361655347684 45.9495490026263 16.2619880698941
2007 Q1 91.7627520075554 81.3055915394591 78.5090962643224 64.4163827355527 47.6795230119518 15.3948766299465
2007 Q2 92.6114783987868 82.1306411795961 79.4386691979963 64.7922306494326 47.6747849449389 15.2445678079739
2007 Q3 92.0554719206254 81.5037601464315 78.8882908156939 66.1357704110068 47.4172770985275 15.2139356654784
2007 Q4 92.5848706452834 81.7629642867715 79.2399704272459 67.0885263689512 46.5510161985303 16.0589030929873
2008 Q1 97.6196661166016 86.3334510617616 83.893991756209 71.762041045537 48.8966664753969 16.0681219001032
2008 Q2 93.8520333214819 82.1714454866574 80.0592006621449 68.300286340208 45.38512770311 15.5057640897241
2008 Q3 93.2165887968672 82.0154353991664 79.9914740055656 69.5556790941612 46.3419231454115 16.3760690320747
2008 Q4 83.4351739817333 72.3229392303214 70.3222832309061 59.3743364278769 33.9519719659957 12.1927520354844
2009 Q1 83.7449704931281 72.8452849338172 70.852893959132 60.9857561171072 34.193058058455 12.1270738487319
2009 Q2 81.6101493774471 70.8624175905371 68.9334456742003 60.0413104627671 34.0501378913229 12.1273265263305
2009 Q3 75.249637483527 64.9648012343881 63.1409231047217 55.0483319933147 30.6320078329633 8.17650848349374
2009 Q4 70.5314130163385 61.2110394402678 59.4730306234792 51.710047253 28.9866623729805 8.66623584100023
2010 Q1 74.0194413308644 64.9718636621175 63.2368363676089 55.9154236967443 34.8333253548307 12.2150989342082
2010 Q2 71.0842937262122 62.5018817748057 60.8617160109318 53.9990139048387 35.0704108710415 12.2369494995408
2010 Q3 72.0591154717078 63.4520055606836 61.8790549605991 54.9407488420882 36.3796821952873 13.6654401103405
2010 Q4 66.903741063716 58.5380616093293 57.0669463951769 50.1597722730144 31.8677253570546 9.5322926971254
2011 Q1 67.5582933128588 59.3775052649748 57.9413540874396 50.5725705966555 32.7780871924407 9.61279672908339
2011 Q2 66.8796020607679 59.1390402660298 57.7615087839708 50.8092651003076 33.3675489008496 10.0977800181193
2011 Q3 66.1099615803517 58.7103540847556 57.3870908434406 50.9680180216479 34.2737587661757 10.3750482225041
2011 Q4 65.165165064806 58.1821275617777 56.9037744918496 50.785758149427 34.050276591315 10.4607215398345
2012 Q1 64.5893185968719 57.8390387877712 56.6300502894201 50.5347060829942 34.1683554634761 10.5383693102781
2012 Q2 64.0107492190315 57.2405542663935 56.087665512883 50.2461077412509 34.552239955405 10.5993313751109
2012 Q3 63.7152795698783 56.9583085735862 55.843081129383 50.0856090437519 34.4512890180436 10.4764855547638
2012 Q4 65.2650053510631 58.7248463984631 57.6424745312925 51.9304645386054 35.9803041519145 11.9014878361014
2013 Q1 72.4117226701899 65.8031315291468 64.7548493149525 58.8031030247619 42.9278433593813 20.0620090367825
2013 Q2 70.5839458605336 64.2720909265017 63.2359068175044 57.3763017848347 41.9302505396493 20.0543246180199
2013 Q3 70.168191819218 64.1020357715702 63.099312966268 57.3980730494291 41.828245143795 20.805092739178
2013 Q4 69.8392552712496 62.4415439468928 61.4873220893451 56.0120141630108 40.3868074900772 21.3920076378355
2014 Q1 70.4529961241211 62.8233253055273 61.8944240744468 56.1850919718035 40.6805932600155 21.4604213138379
2014 Q2 69.2018733099062 61.6086925530059 60.720317784545 55.0394571406638 40.3699470431143 21.8937606163614
2014 Q3 68.3131072738338 60.8705398666291 60.0232691728169 54.486466492327 40.0175257440957 22.0844801100404
2014 Q4 67.9163719650961 60.8380914498417 60.0256229542567 54.8890332411127 40.0155609881152 22.6241851326275
2015 Q1 68.1010797207889 61.1003101959909 60.3061686030151 55.0891482150131 40.3002384731792 22.7017154678427
2015 Q2 66.356439458776 59.6405476478391 58.8594662150426 53.5614989621755 39.3712368307046 22.496921582197
2015 Q3 66.8420864435318 60.176377515075 59.4175315338033 54.0867744371929 39.5859687294074 22.4265274336355
2015 Q4 66.2697274148459 59.5639273044491 58.8067319750198 53.7556383737592 38.9493430186809 22.8384964292305
2016 Q1 66.8673859784121 60.3264563310718 59.6431439368302 54.1869060797325 39.3091654192936 22.9658089074043
2016 Q2 67.3380990155828 60.697886253974 60.0289999941238 54.6549297086424 40.1932024964411 23.1387936243053
2016 Q3 67.0587016233509 60.3791846337863 59.72543794368 54.9563741079705 40.6596332803215 23.6893323323571
2016 Q4 66.0403679460847 59.2874774183286 58.6605843267883 54.0792253495495 39.9080439123046 23.8873858247628
2017 Q1 65.951697528484 59.2357926820987 58.5515114690304 53.7442866919099 39.8651222304549 23.6706879265931
2017 Q2 65.8056239312818 59.1309883945769 58.4615486354187 53.7527117872138 40.155413525876 23.5106703355656
2017 Q3 65.7266243789614 58.9493475997564 58.3095131848405 53.373429190907 39.6397489251353 23.5406365033722
2017 Q4 65.7770636424256 59.1264071726679 58.5125455177209 53.7433094499248 39.7991529936573 23.669586123399
2018 Q1 64.895278170746 58.4000725863144 57.8146890619681 52.7077881545736 38.8755398222238 23.2270787001232
2018 Q2 64.2519961040589 57.714271150103 57.1350937212881 52.0760076385747 38.3675352767409 22.6854265534066
2018 Q3 64.1873671488569 57.6161266415699 57.0362835527172 52.0588977593223 38.33064848641 22.7568662132556
2018 Q4 66.4781124045954 59.9886179342085 59.4149456759424 54.7029260818833 40.5408694693871 23.1911515561374
2019 Q1 67.1431581989289 60.7067894106491 60.1305659054392 55.146983355221 40.5966970986922 22.4886455343271
2019 Q2 67.6984141343814 61.2392731014012 60.696323587737 55.6898084009699 40.9969135372997 22.5619610337863
2019 Q3 69.7639457606099 63.3211407131281 62.7774234774391 57.915878485863 42.4332176303891 22.9622202123207
2019 Q4 69.9409518536235 63.5185236540863 62.9751925131554 58.2402236033991 41.9546632134208 23.4793881638521
2020 Q1 76.1251077192736 69.4026856780922 68.8201562332707 63.8391863713339 46.0460218038581 26.8525734670505
2020 Q2 87.3450119478057 79.5407078919736 78.9012438130349 73.8844806364943 50.2425488758239 31.0620124520741
2020 Q3 80.5904596556515 73.4280403202173 72.8105961343098 68.4276463852797 47.6660917651264 29.8272321487657
2020 Q4 80.5704819261447 73.6229759516707 72.9977937599302 68.8041701738621 49.1185778614325 31.0139306371024
2021 Q1 79.8344155597398 72.7745246510277 72.1344075842421 67.2361677600216 47.8269701152652 31.5343088756538
2021 Q2 78.725158738431 71.5346432870993 70.9235309288265 66.2592643994734 46.7596547836403 31.5322473388038
2021 Q3 78.3922545864863 71.3196161158238 70.719289827722 66.2214033065329 47.2866787679274 32.2477963535989
2021 Q4 79.8589581254682 72.8346451139065 70.254410442201 66.0095325642124 47.270220114247 32.5037236530755
2022 Q1 78.2529373355335 71.4525190049178 69.1398508329372 64.6203909346301 46.3899062165917 32.1640484966414
2022 Q2 75.4462871362088 68.6860053262044 66.3437505279318 61.8336000547965 44.2924595151918 30.5773387108876
2022 Q3 73.4759983209488 66.8329847862845 64.3725843720168 59.9346673290049 42.5355777300651 28.8634556901877
2022 Q4 72.6775949774549 66.0472720470185 63.6583183654624 59.155907427928 41.6301825566949 28.0223174348188
2023 Q1 72.8673797660476 66.1565405313174 63.8022739596679 59.5047861751573 41.2047109429998 25.3085657863996
2023 Q2 73.6906278504118 67.0645862414371 64.5610510570966 60.2740732187024 40.7062246944323 24.2330865064883
2023 Q3 73.6768765347086 66.8969543359897 64.2629731419196 59.948570572105 39.9629535940607 23.5552600899933
2023 Q4 74.984777126426 68.007865051366 65.5339330236254 61.2372251372456 40.6610339386152 23.789032609153
2024 Q1 75.8931971571769 68.8491808411843 66.4751507675855 62.1666684918716 41.1556251865563 23.8773817330312
2024 Q2 75.333093711376 68.2337421923017 65.9409705597016 61.7527051445677 40.8918719709699 23.1727537435407

Note: The black striped area denotes the period from 2008:Q4 to 2012:Q4, when insured deposits increased because of the Transaction Account Guarantee program. The "other" category consists of variable-rate demand obligations (VRDOs), federal funds, funding-agreement-backed securities, private liquidity funds, offshore money market funds, short-term investment funds, local government investment pools, and stablecoins. Securities lending includes only lending collateralized by cash. GDP is gross domestic product. Values for VRDOs come from Bloomberg beginning in 2019:Q1. See Jack Bao, Josh David, and Song Han (2015), "The Runnables," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 3), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/the-runnables-20150903.html.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Private Funds Statistics; iMoneyNet, Inc., Offshore Money Fund Analyzer; Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: U.S. Municipal Variable-Rate Demand Obligation Update; DTCC Solutions LLC, an affiliate of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation: commercial paper data; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Risk Management Association, Securities Lending Report; Markit Securities Finance; Investment Company Institute; Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); gross domestic product, Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics; Llama Corp, DeFiLlama.

Figure 4.2. The share of high-quality liquid assets to total assets remained above pre-pandemic levels

This is a line chart titled " The share of high-quality liquid assets to total assets remained above pre-pandemic levels". The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2001 to 2024. The y-axis represents liquid assets as a percent of total assets, and ranges from 0 to 32 percent. The data are quarterly. There are three variables in the chart. The first line, labeled "G-SIBs", is designated by a red line and ranges from about 6 to 31 percent. It begins around 10 percent and remains there until 2004. The series then falls to around 6 percent by 2006, staying there until 2008. The series jumps sharply to 13 percent in late 2008, and then increases steadily to 22 percent through 2014. The series remains around 22 percent until early 2019 when it temporarily dips to 20 percent, before rising quickly to about 31 percent by the end of 2021. The series then declines sharply to about 25 percent in 2023:Q2, then rises to 26 percent in 2023:Q4 before falling back to around 25 percent in 2024:Q2. The second line, labeled "Large non-G-SIBs", is designated by a blue line and ranges from 6 to about 25 percent. This variable falls from about 10 percent to about 6 percent in 2008:Q2 before rising to 14 percent by 2011. The series falls to 12 percent in 2013 before rising slowly to 16 percent in 2017, then declining slightly to around 15 percent by the end of 2019. The series then rises sharply from early 2020 to early 2021 to about 25 percent, before falling to about 18 percent by 2022:Q4 and then rising to about 21 percent by 2023:Q4. It rose again to over 22 percent as of 2024:Q2. The third line, labeled "Other BHCs" is designated by a black line and ranges from about 5 percent to about 18 percent. The series falls from about 11 percent in 2001 to about 5 percent in 2008:Q1 and then rises steadily to about 12 percent in 2011 where it remains until the end of 2012. The line then declines steadily to around 10 percent at the end of 2019 before sharply increasing to about 19 percent by 2021:Q4. The series then declines to just over 11 percent at the end of the series in 2024:Q2.

Note: The sample consists of domestic bank holding companies (BHCs), intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence, and commercial banks. G-SIBs are global systemically important banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Liquid assets are cash plus estimates of securities that qualify as high-quality liquid assets as defined by the Liquidity Coverage Ratio requirement. Accordingly, Level 1 assets as well as discounts and restrictions on Level 2 assets are incorporated into the estimate.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies

Figure 4.3. Banks' reliance on short-term wholesale funding stayed low but increased further since 2023:Q4

This is a line chart titled "Banks' reliance on short-term wholesale funding stayed low but increased further since 2023:Q4". The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2000 to 2024. The y-axis represents short-term wholesale funding as a percent of assets, and ranges from 5 to 40 percent. The data are quarterly. There is one variable charted on the plot. The variable is designated by a black line and ranges from about 10 to 35 percent. The variable begins near 27 percent in 2000:Q1, declines steadily to about 23 percent in 2003:Q4, increases to about 33 percent by the end of 2006 and remains there until 2008:Q1. It then steadily declines to about 16 percent in 2015:Q1 and remains near that level through 2019:Q3 before steadily declining to about 11 percent in 2021:Q4. The series then increases to 16 percent in 2023:Q3 and ends in a slight decline to 15.6 percent in 2023:Q4 before increasing again to just over 17 percent in 2024:Q2.

Note: Short-term wholesale funding is defined as the sum of large time deposits with maturity less than 1 year, federal funds purchased and securities sold under agreements to repurchase, deposits in foreign offices with maturity less than 1 year, trading liabilities (excluding revaluation losses on derivatives), and other borrowed money with maturity less than 1 year. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

Figure 4.4. Assets under management at money market funds increased to an all-time high in August

This is a stacked line chart titled "Assets under management at money market funds increased to an all-time high in August". The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 7000 in billions of dollars (real). The data are monthly. There are four variables in the chart. The first variable is labeled "Government". It is designated by the beige portion of the chart and ranges from about 600 to about 5100. This variable starts around 600 billion dollars and remains around that level until mid-2007. The series then increases to around 2000 billion dollars by the start of 2009 before falling back to around 1000 billion dollars by 2011. The series remains around this level until the end of 2015 when the series increases rapidly to around 2700 billion dollars by the end of 2016. The series stays at this level until the end of 2018, when it begins a steady rise to over 3000 billion dollars by the end of 2019 and rises sharply to around 4650 billion dollars in early 2020 before steadily falling to about 4000 billion by October 2022. The variable then remains at 4000 billion until February 2023, after which it saw a pronounced rise to just over 4800 by January 2024. It reached a series maximum in August 2024, eclipsing 5000 billion. The second portion is labeled "Tax exempt." This series is designated by the red portion of the chart and ranges from about 90 to about just over 700. This variable starts around 380 billion dollars and increases continuously to the peak value of around 700 billion dollars in 2008. Starting in 2009, the variable declines quickly and then more gradually through 2015, ending 2015 at around 340 billion dollars. The series drops sharply to 165 billion dollars in 2016 and remains around that level through mid-2020, before declining steadily to around 90 by January 2022. The variable then slowly increases to around 120 by January 2024, before settling around 130 billion in August 2024. The third portion is labeled "Retail prime" and is designated by the light blue portion of the chart. The variable ranges from about 200 to around 1400 billion. This variable starts at 1300 billion dollars and fluctuates around this level through early 2002. The variable declines gradually from mid-2002 until 2005 where it hits a low of around 850 billion dollars. The series then increases steadily through 2008 when it reaches a local peak of around 1200 billion dollars. The series then falls quickly, and then more slowly, through 2015, ending 2015 at about 550 billion dollars. The series falls sharply in 2016 to about 320 billion dollars and remains there until mid-2018. It then increases steadily to around 550 billion dollars by early 2020. The series falls sharply to 350 billion dollars by the end of 2020 before decreasing to about 200 billion dollars by April 2022. The variable then increases sharply to about 800 billion dollars by the end of the series in August 2024. The fourth portion is labeled "Institutional prime". It is designated by the dark blue filled portion of the chart and ranges from about 160 to just under 1800. This variable starts at 770 billion dollars and generally increases from 2000 through 2002 to about 1400 billion dollars. From 2003 through mid-2005, the series falls to about 1050 billion dollars and then starts rising again, hitting about 1800 billion dollars in August 2008. The variable has a sharp decline in late 2008 to about 1300 billion dollars before quickly rebounding to about 1800 billion dollars in August 2009. The series generally falls over the next few years, hitting about 1200 billion dollars by early 2012, where it remains until late 2015. The variable experiences an accelerating decline beginning in early 2016, ending the year with its series minimum value of around 160 billion dollars. The series increases through early 2020 to about 390 billion dollars, drops sharply in March 2020 to 270 billion dollars, increases back to about 370 billion dollars, before declining steadily to 220 billion dollars by June 2022. The series increases slightly to around 280 billion dollars in January 2024 before falling down to 240 billion at the end of the series in August 2024.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Investment Company Institute data; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.5. Market capitalization of major stablecoins grew significantly this year to near its previous peak

Billions of dollars

Date Other TerraUSD Dai Binance USD USD Coin Tether
2020-12-31 28.300553248 27.205880094 27.025604421 25.853741126 24.866808981 20.935116985
2021-01-01 28.884440693 27.757324164 27.573910812 26.362655567 25.287327764 21.165735738
2021-01-02 29.102492528 27.927978973 27.744757959 26.553871011 25.408000738 21.269142057
2021-01-03 29.330882536 28.176892959 27.997472319 26.750509371 25.579299652 21.365921518
2021-01-04 29.648834021 28.505570833 28.324042123 27.007844454 25.974864498 21.801817637
2021-01-05 30.19711903 28.950831492 28.763729742 27.442613315 26.371357752 21.999023184
2021-01-06 30.774270483 29.481217659 29.288955694 27.967118673 26.859087762 22.4747342
2021-01-07 31.344578778 30.003105569 29.817360853 28.453109873 27.35542791 22.851073405
2021-01-08 32.171360068 30.843253524 30.653412585 29.264265785 28.159515937 23.583727384
2021-01-09 32.770822981 31.427138222 31.242999525 29.819785339 28.663955634 23.913934009
2021-01-10 33.29398992 31.945717042 31.758782913 30.328242085 29.161146346 24.329532341
2021-01-11 33.498558817 32.171265986 31.980871287 30.593678561 29.530555998 24.685391833
2021-01-12 33.196147209 31.784569097 31.587563744 30.214845729 29.149468034 24.351165459
2021-01-13 33.175626266 31.835552428 31.645388074 30.274584698 29.199097061 24.425386977
2021-01-14 33.139273413 31.705974058 31.506041729 30.09561774 29.009213777 24.162272324
2021-01-15 33.251765107 31.806788873 31.609721843 30.318785516 29.164599674 24.279459849
2021-01-16 33.581398425 32.120034181 31.922788976 30.551054753 29.412721171 24.367969508
2021-01-17 33.592227953 32.073215317 31.887604903 30.504976607 29.342707522 24.28103872
2021-01-18 33.803887946 32.248403149 32.049355312 30.643484281 29.493884507 24.365435402
2021-01-19 33.700225819 32.094500206 31.899521325 30.496841297 29.352719801 24.236946768
2021-01-20 34.374468604 32.759326849 32.555100637 31.149052143 30.022130148 24.718410858
2021-01-21 34.712346773 33.12397261 32.916706461 31.502990514 30.398034469 25.018693185
2021-01-22 34.782297571 33.183947836 32.967554789 31.522710048 30.336713616 24.811541182
2021-01-23 34.791172902 33.177272813 32.950884768 31.490435008 30.305061482 24.712146512
2021-01-24 35.029213133 33.392377972 33.168596303 31.634415139 30.412001092 24.802853572
2021-01-25 35.176383556 33.521977685 33.27452952 31.696481174 30.49795949 24.964568822
2021-01-26 35.3360144 33.63591275 33.379942744 31.78275057 30.562502725 25.13978388
2021-01-27 35.734535265 34.043601775 33.786286527 32.18010577 30.811095467 25.307575273
2021-01-28 35.934634 34.23174743 33.965481646 32.354171961 30.957960475 25.35001807
2021-01-29 36.002888129 34.303400221 34.031760288 32.414304714 30.929714366 25.103831303
2021-01-30 37.095655679 35.374340931 35.097780428 33.456696742 31.984225807 26.168831343
2021-01-31 37.498631878 35.756733228 35.474959006 33.828970375 32.358069148 26.483682759
2021-02-01 37.405233504 35.682231767 35.406790611 33.753373053 32.343605945 26.472459964
2021-02-02 37.835240933 36.099098318 35.822572645 34.11510118 32.707190301 26.762411109
2021-02-03 38.294834274 36.552324408 36.285949286 34.551471299 33.124077999 27.038111736
2021-02-04 38.866833093 37.133869596 36.875808676 35.104401981 33.651413741 27.502829455
2021-02-05 39.591857344 37.809035701 37.540993433 35.719723875 34.202036653 27.873077234
2021-02-06 40.186896315 38.377606261 38.116627438 36.29229875 34.738282313 28.300602949
2021-02-07 40.425004137 38.591755596 38.319946732 36.517387403 34.977000238 28.528206626
2021-02-08 41.087904802 39.212603587 38.932770067 37.041915192 35.481224907 28.948919015
2021-02-09 42.146852917 40.102839636 39.810284253 37.864164406 36.263699075 29.626314075
2021-02-10 42.92351813 40.875686117 40.567474397 38.601327967 36.937583625 30.196176794
2021-02-11 43.637319279 41.605957618 41.275298415 39.245049354 37.569217454 30.6771049
2021-02-12 44.13606805 42.059964251 41.693319297 39.64952171 37.997476822 30.976539268
2021-02-13 44.992603512 42.870167201 42.475265053 40.405165758 38.686263179 31.500838668
2021-02-14 45.548039002 43.467191112 43.0452501 40.979433326 39.238663007 31.831885538
2021-02-15 45.791799628 43.72822749 43.294932991 41.171917653 39.548437359 32.125633437
2021-02-16 46.137227722 44.071839934 43.610465163 41.411602029 39.825139097 32.357447861
2021-02-17 46.146998277 44.060270879 43.574991233 41.318010598 39.668934901 32.413291911
2021-02-18 47.159508245 45.066370554 44.563185412 42.259410362 40.529227321 33.167537656
2021-02-19 48.564093623 46.386026862 45.858884614 43.524421373 41.557963593 33.964430062
2021-02-20 49.658985921 47.430200543 46.88747167 44.524306185 42.346873682 34.545753091
2021-02-21 49.832460752 47.55044322 46.987180353 44.593027595 42.396688192 34.510046446
2021-02-22 50.476136353 48.247254267 47.655799762 45.278575972 43.01713555 34.939749133
2021-02-23 50.609049833 48.276460921 47.679723565 45.360244607 43.199948319 35.025482933
2021-02-24 51.452693802 49.104780659 48.491445237 46.143514473 43.862887917 35.41640669
2021-02-25 51.012839741 48.711827047 48.08629856 45.756527186 43.470013896 35.083600306
2021-02-26 52.251718792 49.871166087 49.212341207 46.879811141 44.529958293 35.581859982
2021-02-27 51.636401747 49.255285997 48.579967523 46.24243436 43.863303633 34.808762267
2021-02-28 52.381092651 49.95613715 49.266892038 46.898914965 44.546896091 35.568293656
2021-03-01 52.917089895 50.312117694 49.602432991 47.12672959 44.572366033 35.495107615
2021-03-02 53.676793235 51.104507155 50.371296698 47.827916083 44.963299989 35.948972275
2021-03-03 53.239903772 50.676745481 49.953091149 47.422096885 44.618106734 35.821819941
2021-03-04 54.368362706 51.843711078 51.095530009 48.518501883 45.544491825 36.557122622
2021-03-05 54.368171027 51.854826349 51.084088894 48.530396902 45.321901142 36.387300593
2021-03-06 54.676632413 52.208478045 51.430979466 48.841550919 45.605267796 36.572628505
2021-03-07 54.838635501 52.352307083 51.560835035 49.011033626 45.850741575 36.652063182
2021-03-08 54.565901184 52.084180133 51.268759458 48.690777738 45.677574004 36.499013028
2021-03-09 55.28377746 52.818890739 51.983384306 49.338525516 46.150963135 36.984401411
2021-03-10 55.526560877 53.074342639 52.206845795 49.581959171 46.367938138 37.185340231
2021-03-11 56.186319738 53.691530694 52.784755188 50.10792308 46.978252601 37.666310374
2021-03-12 57.048171859 54.532893501 53.562407656 50.831521666 47.625753586 38.26734084
2021-03-13 57.337772823 54.801103098 53.783309932 51.023364419 47.829862284 38.386048842
2021-03-14 57.376129332 54.796037585 53.775649411 51.000519209 47.888599669 38.533411509
2021-03-15 57.69436389 55.109175128 54.048476717 51.261721136 48.165461894 38.650333128
2021-03-16 57.974325493 55.391785094 54.238173933 51.428890171 48.355963554 38.779245187
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2024-10-22 172.087175607 159.399191225 159.399191225 154.427905968 154.359912043 120.080509533
2024-10-23 171.589517136 159.173246359 159.173246359 154.220425432 154.152869775 120.108145288
2024-10-24 170.939994899 158.729713091 158.729713091 153.794191858 153.726411268 119.682255894
2024-10-25 171.788244802 159.41546958 159.41546958 154.532599807 154.464576955 120.083115641
2024-10-26 171.877008976 159.50591981 159.50591981 154.578066091 154.510235766 120.157096379
2024-10-27 172.290218207 159.828278638 159.828278638 154.919362224 154.853636935 120.439762853
2024-10-28 171.474165795 159.272617424 159.272617424 154.405685547 154.337760323 119.942921071
2024-10-29 172.090825418 159.904700402 159.904700402 155.002386932 154.934369743 120.436072197
2024-10-30 172.466099212 160.195106663 160.195106663 155.266391863 155.199040603 120.421539375
2024-10-31 171.771466174 159.651031937 159.651031937 154.832493777 154.764557228 120.343914501
2024-11-01 172.206251158 160.086204025 160.086204025 155.201875666 155.135420658 120.512798318
2024-11-02 172.300265491 160.072904063 160.072904063 155.2062314 155.138979815 120.349357582
2024-11-03 172.743808848 160.33623943 160.33623943 155.456768673 155.388635231 120.534696883

Note: The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Llama Corp, DeFiLlama.

Figure 4.6. Corporate bonds held by bond mutual funds remained stable in the first half of 2024

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Corporate Bonds
2000 Q1 400.669751745783
2000 Q2 396.692596024845
2000 Q3 380.875696360485
2000 Q4 348.020013453361
2001 Q1 356.459574547524
2001 Q2 359.71827172362
2001 Q3 355.501116429777
2001 Q4 438.891081729974
2002 Q1 450.091794491287
2002 Q2 500.254009356812
2002 Q3 483.014860155039
2002 Q4 483.7587099908
2003 Q1 488.946286601093
2003 Q2 538.310813618875
2003 Q3 543.486524861839
2003 Q4 534.186935471289
2004 Q1 579.514025282749
2004 Q2 499.448058461538
2004 Q3 500.796940253165
2004 Q4 512.918141628801
2005 Q1 486.225625008684
2005 Q2 489.676823033419
2005 Q3 454.038248696241
2005 Q4 453.500046954178
2006 Q1 466.491940536193
2006 Q2 449.843825447355
2006 Q3 451.083493940685
2006 Q4 475.230039226574
2007 Q1 480.883494093416
2007 Q2 470.768210906488
2007 Q3 457.203103796026
2007 Q4 444.861920772345
2008 Q1 433.424891980368
2008 Q2 457.319354704969
2008 Q3 420.795760528888
2008 Q4 388.172409833142
2009 Q1 409.579306898097
2009 Q2 479.112784045775
2009 Q3 539.292623814424
2009 Q4 615.836291794663
2010 Q1 710.202909217137
2010 Q2 717.097239198229
2010 Q3 803.49008747606
2010 Q4 922.099126307118
2011 Q1 965.420634437044
2011 Q2 968.251284011635
2011 Q3 879.010186564923
2011 Q4 916.303407479917
2012 Q1 1014.858467279
2012 Q2 1036.13764410236
2012 Q3 1134.52626950166
2012 Q4 1201.46512513402
2013 Q1 1232.50391950738
2013 Q2 1243.76258516124
2013 Q3 1272.29703727648
2013 Q4 1319.34128935032
2014 Q1 1362.29485197804
2014 Q2 1398.45991316599
2014 Q3 1381.08177207327
2014 Q4 1413.02458075991
2015 Q1 1468.603206663
2015 Q2 1456.45298293228
2015 Q3 1439.63077206101
2015 Q4 1363.55463322556
2016 Q1 1420.07511324859
2016 Q2 1453.67243933447
2016 Q3 1492.72888134402
2016 Q4 1458.23101254634
2017 Q1 1499.86296537454
2017 Q2 1501.39890196292
2017 Q3 1507.06345255344
2017 Q4 1470.2416358859
2018 Q1 1447.27333451231
2018 Q2 1438.07670031547
2018 Q3 1491.34489707649
2018 Q4 1397.50689133988
2019 Q1 1525.52349117558
2019 Q2 1543.36472104227
2019 Q3 1574.09522723305
2019 Q4 1571.5618033409
2020 Q1 1470.35284352913
2020 Q2 1809.78849932259
2020 Q3 1870.29397981519
2020 Q4 1890.32498734206
2021 Q1 1884.81483671259
2021 Q2 1913.00131578263
2021 Q3 1840.98391903323
2021 Q4 1783.28782747957
2022 Q1 1579.59618369531
2022 Q2 1327.9246450378
2022 Q3 1237.59151413711
2022 Q4 1240.63358001165
2023 Q1 1272.06208338009
2023 Q2 1258.96840675916
2023 Q3 1189.69814059659
2023 Q4 1237.71990467385
2024 Q1 1290.65832857718
2024 Q2 1264.38080435595

Note: The data show holdings of all U.S. corporate bonds by all U.S.-domiciled mutual funds (holdings of foreign bonds are excluded). The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff estimates based on Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.7. Assets held by bank loan and high-yield mutual funds moved up in the first half of 2024

This is a stacked line chart titled "Assets held by bank loan and high-yield mutual funds moved up in the first half of 2024". The x-axis shows time and ranges from 2000 to 2024. The y-axis is given in billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 600 billion dollars. The data are monthly. There are two variables plotted in this chart. The first variable, ‘Bank loan mutual funds,' is shown in a dark red shaded area of the chart. The series starts off at around 30 billion dollars in 2000 and hovers around there until late 2001 when it begins a steady decline to around 20 billion by late 2003. From here the series sees a prolonged rise to about 50-60 billion dollars by mid-2007, after which it sees a steady decline to around 25 by early-2009. From there the series sees another period of steady growth until early-to-mid-2014, reaching its series peak just above 190 in March of 2014 before another period of decline, this time to around 115 billion dollars by mid-2016. The series then sees another period of growth, to around 160 billion dollars by mid-2018. The series then sees another drop to a sustained local minimum around 75 through 2020. The series then rises to around 130 billion dollars by mid-2022, after which the series declines to 80 billion dollars in mid-2023 and then remains flat through July 2024. The second variable, ‘High-yield bond mutual funds,' is shown in the beige shaded portion of the chart. It starts around 205 billion dollars in 2000 and generally declines until late 2002, reaching a local minimum of around 150 billion dollars. From there, the series sees a marked increase to around 240 billion by early 2004, before gradually declining to around 150 billion dollars by late 2008. The series next sees a rapid increase over several years, reaching a series maximum of around 390 billion dollars by mid-2014. The series then declines steadily to around 250 billion dollars by early 2020, before seeing another marked increase to local peak of around 350 billion dollars in early 2021. The series then declines markedly to around 240 billion dollars at the end of 2022. The series remains around 240 billion until 2024 when an uptick begins that brings the series to around 260 billion by July 2024.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. The key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Investment Company Institute; consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.8. Mutual fund flows were solid in early 2024 but have dissipated

This is a stacked bar chart titled "Mutual fund flows were solid in early 2024 but have dissipated". The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2017 to September 2024. The y-axis is in billions of dollars and ranges from negative 150 billion to 150 billion. The data are monthly. There are three variables plotted on the chart. The first, "Investment-grade bond mutual funds" is shown in blue. The series starts at 5 billion in January 2017 and rises until March 2017 to 18 billion. It then oscillates within the range of 0 to 15 billion until September 2018 aside from one peak in January 2018 at 22 billion. In October 2018, the series drops to negative 14 billion, further declining to -21 billion dollars in December 2018. It increases to 0 in January 2019 and generally rises to a local peak of 27 billion dollars in January 2020. In March 2020, it plummets to negative 89 billion dollars before returning to a range of 22 to 42 billion through the rest of 2020. The series decreases to 28 billion in February 2021 and then continues to decrease through May 2022 to a local minimum of negative 40 billion dollars. The series gradually increases, with fluctuations, to February 2024 at around 16 billion dollars. It then decreases again and oscillates before settling at 1 billion dollars. The second variable, "Bank loan mutual funds" is represented in red. It begins around 3 billion and decreases through December 2017 to about negative 1 billion. It then increases steadily through June 2018 to about 2.5 billion dollars. It decreases to about negative 5 billion in November 2018 before dropping dramatically in December 2018 to about negative 13 billion. The variable recovers slowly through 2019 and ends at about negative 2.5 billion dollars in December 2019. In January 2020, it increases to around 0 before declining slightly in February and sharply to negative 11 billion in March and then hovers between negative 2 billion dollars and 0 through October 2020. The series turns positive again in January 2021 and then continues to increase to about 4 billion by April 2021. The series declined slightly to hover around 2 billion until increasing to its peak of about 8 billion in January 2022. The variable declined to around negative 5 billion in September 2022. The series then hovers around -5 billion until December 2022, increasing to just above zero in February 2024. Since then, it has oscillated between positive and negative values before settling just under negative 1 billion in September 2024. The third variable, "High-yield bond mutual funds", is represented in beige. The bar begins around 700 million and decreases to around negative 7 billion in March 2017, staying negative or just barely above 0 through 2017. The series decreases significantly in February 2018 to 10 billion, and then increases to 1 billion dollars in April 2018. It decreased sharply to negative 3 billion in May 2018. The series then remains between negative 7 billion and positive 1 billion through January 2019, where it reaches about 3 billion. The series again oscillates between about negative 4 billion and positive 3 billion until February 2020. In March 2020, the series steeply declines to its lowest point around negative 10 billion dollars before rebounding to its peak of 12 billion in May 2020. The series declines to about negative 2 billion in September 2020 and fluctuates between about negative 5 billion and 3 billion through the end of 2021. The series remains mostly negative hovering around negative 3 billion through 2022 and fluctuates between slightly above and slightly below 0 in both 2023 and 2024, ending around positive 2 billion dollars in September 2024.

Note: Mutual fund assets under management as of September 2024 included $2,403 billion in investment-grade bond mutual funds, $268 billion in high-yield bond mutual funds, and $80 billion in bank loan mutual funds. Bank loan mutual funds, also known as floating-rate bond funds, are excluded from high-yield bond mutual funds.

Source: Investment Company Institute.

Figure 4.9. Life insurers' reliance on nontraditional liabilities for funding increased further in the first half of 2024

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Repurchase agreements Securities lending cash collateral FHLB advances Funding-agreement-backed securities
2006 Q4 4.80766658138178 212.82933363869 13.8676520943082 248.18314002307
2007 Q4 4.11519648721452 216.379086718284 25.0204867592748 255.965901240984
2008 Q4 12.0202078085529 72.4643222221824 49.9108149505382 242.240790511526
2009 Q4 14.7723838658671 55.3708021257497 65.8851103257949 172.403394575678
2010 Q4 14.7181901491749 60.556695756586 61.0483078864337 134.385401279381
2011 Q1 8.53944721578738 65.085639587406 61.0972790705575 119.750302761926
2011 Q2 9.40132199755637 64.1564960707824 60.0154992392471 113.260724698314
2011 Q3 9.46315385708588 61.4196822153408 60.0180386808233 105.439760752234
2011 Q4 9.82056527206292 58.7306356793734 60.5569418340716 105.172514044502
2012 Q1 11.1912279779768 57.7400900499654 61.7009289105875 101.431915775574
2012 Q2 14.424632008512 66.2170573698159 65.8363333378086 103.122740041121
2012 Q3 15.3316366611183 74.8528641060386 65.3794044132459 104.405223686424
2012 Q4 15.2802320533082 73.0843363265245 63.5898842538941 100.157652256002
2013 Q1 18.0109506787618 72.8744453476067 64.4327891721789 99.1525849619243
2013 Q2 17.9505682460085 74.0954106640879 65.6387192816366 88.7289362851649
2013 Q3 17.286087726464 68.3851146678115 64.2587117670376 83.9169864536662
2013 Q4 15.4507803930958 75.123228782417 65.317284420069 81.5481920642808
2014 Q1 18.1846566555113 76.6372733005673 65.0898222988677 76.1223930373178
2014 Q2 18.2238362373681 78.942352751212 65.349438266039 80.0334203815935
2014 Q3 20.0722957082533 82.8546062487509 65.7933197280008 83.7055022829165
2014 Q4 15.3346070188263 71.6807119125287 66.1370239684529 89.4636659321072
2015 Q1 14.7234078483856 72.1306473759541 69.3106628290157 92.7149937153209
2015 Q2 14.255320791282 66.7725001565146 70.6229088316373 90.4917495074971
2015 Q3 14.2812160696449 66.2702391784471 72.194979167275 85.0552090509217
2015 Q4 11.339408214422 65.3592382434209 73.3713108662628 91.2250040504551
2016 Q1 13.8165811851064 68.016621160279 77.1150233852154 89.3325629044956
2016 Q2 15.5700277300045 70.3177830447207 81.1375998526768 90.4244088973541
2016 Q3 16.576488841298 71.6424828290579 84.3817093217071 90.603388040053
2016 Q4 12.5658294269542 61.5732643713245 85.0841780240809 96.3289068970163
2017 Q1 16.5684980104926 64.853822531948 87.9321460186815 97.6962422904833
2017 Q2 16.800527641978 64.9726049804561 87.6614136917937 102.010493136871
2017 Q3 18.3775585436594 65.7299374759295 87.5504824190072 111.059129039777
2017 Q4 21.1324596914458 62.3715595129034 89.7269910914376 108.379436849485
2018 Q1 20.8249820876746 65.5511537930834 95.5374663133058 110.796954662545
2018 Q2 23.1518805106383 57.1685721313062 94.8397290114166 101.859386293105
2018 Q3 22.5524547550318 58.0485663933979 93.0126952827403 111.766250955174
2018 Q4 22.3923915368524 51.8370175080484 96.0301793738408 109.037636576683
2019 Q1 21.6000237459852 56.1651129895433 98.3050396951249 112.783577695842
2019 Q2 20.3343801024149 55.6720006253379 97.2343169638999 110.769163844085
2019 Q3 19.3410400795084 55.6884383580928 100.709870180444 111.745499737077
2019 Q4 20.7830944433168 54.7364364520523 103.946898444417 113.956938374293
2020 Q1 22.6694613032059 51.8430825213635 122.523652833659 121.203075740388
2020 Q2 25.3116253422998 58.3348610991327 125.226419056296 127.262523646132
2020 Q3 24.9872089150204 57.3972781959364 120.83434728899 135.439263097006
2020 Q4 24.936852241034 58.0737800610253 121.544430830775 139.889668413853
2021 Q1 30.8855745491184 62.1530079220113 130.386471122901 151.469995932952
2021 Q2 23.5978625390613 62.5675560383489 123.440470905199 165.993299902458
2021 Q3 20.968520982055 67.605013637188 119.361826980739 175.493979179005
2021 Q4 24.7107819929328 61.3221933235353 121.082774989815 176.519881983562
2022 Q1 23.251022773306 61.5835931287514 130.72877871721 188.82515392013
2022 Q2 23.5212622560685 51.6677361417102 133.892172315432 185.48812359063
2022 Q3 24.6201993045258 46.6368402637846 135.690231564591 182.380157710356
2022 Q4 26.1192438134047 43.2932630507855 136.231440463121 184.105925882761
2023 Q1 26.0160590646763 45.1080306714946 140.130919381057 184.358977953795
2023 Q2 24.040725737024 37.8283250655671 138.924519580776 184.790763010223
2023 Q3 22.0538449693851 40.5068355524701 138.338759690926 187.280326459811
2023 Q4 24.7300924877863 40.9334388607406 137.8538887333 188.290373708235
2024 Q1 26.9751732285497 42.4631225717346 141.246091777263 200.705136850101
2024 Q2 27.008375411 40.314562778 146.09449709194 198.649526262961

Note: The data are converted to constant 2024 dollars using the consumer price index. FHLB is Federal Home Loan Bank. The data are annual from 2006 to 2010 and quarterly thereafter. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; Moody's Analytics, Inc., CreditView, Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Program Index; Securities and Exchange Commission, Forms 10-Q and 10-K; National Association of Insurance Commissioners, quarterly and annual statutory filings accessed via S&P Global, Capital IQ Pro; Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Figure 4.10. Life insurers continued to hold a significant share of risky and illiquid assets on their balance sheets

Billions of dollars (real)

Date Other ABS CRE loans CRE loans, securitized Alternative investments Illiquid corporate debt
2006 374.377543405973 413.614438596265 283.521479450567 207.416295155016 477.094622626508
2007 394.909685766524 430.026897725225 318.954573889278 269.870313196068 479.27519771356
2008 373.770348450202 430.320879274793 313.855005213931 237.631370129517 487.082800562732
2009 333.355970300697 418.164312197695 316.352950007132 243.173932283063 494.522822698203
2010 291.291444873361 400.482930905805 265.477574451035 313.824753543146 510.215373927608
2011 288.600078937376 408.753140547529 248.746119460013 321.487117752981 511.145688948565
2012 262.862680563797 416.835538529836 224.648718312833 337.239096235097 520.336099676532
2013 253.136412277223 433.753407541535 216.117079999337 360.31060330981 548.260831605387
2014 253.010100765696 449.346980800909 215.831386105086 386.412639872292 546.036960108073
2015 237.935485150544 482.957334654788 209.11424732647 375.571158154163 567.099764661896
2016 242.013554112499 517.296108840116 201.043851398173 388.957645574673 593.533098259691
2017 225.390564212743 550.430696631711 194.753710267971 415.241125309707 595.576117580708
2018 220.136876281983 586.823215337208 205.302834893614 415.972721511961 575.055731695555
2019 217.127867177809 636.687276529994 220.989534946295 454.481555875616 643.560068510474
2020 211.820407737558 654.286834325819 231.218078813522 509.774906424955 740.307188976795
2021 208.786516445498 649.879097660766 223.54691417481 556.054526720273 752.667237137073
2022 200.728812586901 638.997965009903 209.715574644304 525.940406627321 765.154619997332
2023 229.443608799 641.707258852 192.703784626 507.038772953 757.929866262

Note: The data are converted to constant 2023 dollars using the consumer price index. Securitized products include collateralized loan obligations for corporate debt, private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities for commercial real estate (CRE), and private-label residential mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by autos, credit cards, consumer loans, and student loans for other ABS. Illiquid corporate debt includes private placements, bank and syndicated loans, and high-yield bonds. Alternative investments include assets filed under Schedule BA. P&C is property and casualty. The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates based on data from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and National Association of Insurance Commissioners Annual Statutory Filings.

Figure A. Fall 2024: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months

Figure A: The chart is titled "Fall 2024: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months." The x-axis ranges from 0 to 70 percent and the data in each category is represented by blue bars showing the percentage of respondents. The categories on the left axis are listed in the following order from top to bottom: U.S. fiscal debt sustainability at 54 percent, Middle East tensions at 46 percent, Policy uncertainty at 46 percent, U.S. recession at 38 percent, Risks to global trade at 33 percent, Persistent inflation; monetary tightening at 33 percent, Risk asset/valuations correction at 29 percent, Chinese economic weakness at 25 percent, Cyberattacks at 25 percent, Russia – Ukraine war at 25 percent, Banking sector stress at 25 percent, Market liquidity strains and volatility at 25 percent, and Commercial and residential real estate at 21 percent.

Note: Responses are to the following question: "Over the next 12–18 months, which shocks, if realized, do you think would have the greatest negative effect on the functioning of the U.S. financial system?"

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of 24 market contacts from August to October.

Figure B. Spring 2024: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months

Figure B: The chart is titled "Spring 2024: Most cited potential shocks over the next 12 to 18 months". The x-axis ranges from 0 to 80 percent and the data in each category is represented by blue bars showing the percentage of respondents. The categories on the left axis are listed in the following order from top to bottom: Persistent inflation; monetary tightening at 72 percent, Policy uncertainty at 60 percent, Commercial and residential real estate at 56 percent, Banking-sector stress at 44 percent, Fiscal debt sustainability at 40 percent, Market liquidity strains and volatility at 36 percent, Treasury market dysfunction/basis trade at 32 percent, U.S.-China tensions at 32 percent, Middle East tensions at 32 percent, Cyberattacks at 28 percent, and Severe U.S./global recession at 28 percent of respondents.

Note: Responses are to the following question: "Over the next 12–18 months, which shocks, if realized, do you think would have the greatest negative effect on the functioning of the U.S. financial system?"

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of 25 market contacts from January to March.

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Last Update: December 04, 2024