Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Auto and Truck Sales

Release Date: August 2, 2016

The Federal Reserve Board estimates seasonal factors for new light vehicle sales and provides these factors to The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. These factors are estimated once per year using X12-ARIMA and were last estimated in summer 2016, using vehicle sales data through April 2016. The seasonal factors for months that had not yet occurred were based on projections from the X12-ARIMA program. The factors will be revised again in summer 2017.

The BEA has posted on their website the seasonal factors for light vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2017. These factors are available for download here.

The table below shows essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2018. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments that align the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted sales totals. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here; in addition, the table includes seasonal factors for sales of medium and heavy trucks.

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Auto and Truck Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light
Trucks
Foreign
Light
Trucks
Domestic
Medium &
Heavy
Trucks
Foreign
Medium &
Heavy
Trucks
Jan-2013  81.82  78.88  80.83  85.50  90.31  63.26
Feb-2013  95.35  86.39  91.25  90.06  86.75  69.80
Mar-2013 118.16 115.78 106.85 113.75 102.79  97.94
Apr-2013 103.11 102.73  97.76  93.62 100.06  96.85
May-2013 117.57 112.30 111.45 105.64 102.27 115.80
Jun-2013 109.89 107.02 105.74 100.30 100.69 118.61
Jul-2013  98.78 104.72 100.21 101.76 102.22 112.85
Aug-2013 114.57 117.01 113.98 121.00 100.20 102.60
Sep-2013  87.56  89.38  90.78  88.89  97.56  92.83
Oct-2013  90.71  93.24  97.95  96.17 109.40  96.04
Nov-2013  88.12  94.44  94.98  99.55  92.90  90.07
Dec-2013  96.70 101.28 112.22 107.76 114.16 140.10
Jan-2014  80.31  77.56  77.79  84.77  89.79  63.40
Feb-2014  95.52  86.59  90.97  89.95  86.76  70.76
Mar-2014 116.30 113.43 105.69 109.90 103.78  96.80
Apr-2014 104.84 104.80 100.68  95.54 100.22  98.17
May-2014 121.48 115.91 114.04 109.15  99.21 109.19
Jun-2014 104.01 101.71 100.51  95.14 103.38 122.07
Jul-2014 102.43 107.94 104.92 105.96 101.93 113.90
Aug-2014 110.64 112.95 109.05 116.43  98.04  99.44
Sep-2014  89.70  91.44  92.89  91.82 100.95  95.06
Oct-2014  90.10  92.67  96.36  96.65 109.15  97.80
Nov-2014  87.16  93.22  94.53  96.43  90.11  86.84
Dec-2014  98.21 103.64 112.88 111.19 117.93 148.34
Jan-2015  83.71  79.79  81.29  86.28  86.71  58.78
Feb-2015  95.41  86.66  90.79  89.66  86.75  72.30
Mar-2015 112.50 110.18 102.46 106.99 105.31  99.75
Apr-2015 105.50 105.80 103.24  96.37 101.00  99.72
May-2015 116.86 112.12 108.95 105.11  96.42 103.78
Jun-2015 106.78 104.24 102.81  98.29 106.03 123.49
Jul-2015 101.61 107.24 103.40 106.45 101.97 114.37
Aug-2015 106.53 108.07 106.21 109.46  99.94  99.32
Sep-2015  93.91  95.62  97.86  96.84 101.45  97.29
Oct-2015  93.49  95.35  98.16  99.98 105.80  93.00
Nov-2015  83.00  89.15  89.99  91.58  92.58  90.32
Dec-2015 103.80 109.37 118.45 117.19 116.71 152.22
Jan-2016  79.34  75.54  77.27  81.33  83.83  55.62
Feb-2016  95.10  86.63  90.63  89.27  90.97  76.49
Mar-2016 118.40 115.84 110.68 113.54 108.29 107.34
Apr-2016 106.20 107.33 101.37  98.70  97.63  93.03
May-2016 111.55 107.15 105.16  99.42  99.53 104.00
Jun-2016 110.53 107.85 108.75 101.87 106.49 126.88
Jul-2016 101.67 106.77 100.76 105.88  96.16 101.92
Aug-2016 106.01 107.58 106.53 109.53 106.16 108.91
Sep-2016  94.75  96.69  98.12  98.85 100.51  99.92
Oct-2016  88.94  90.03  92.71  93.13 104.16  87.88
Nov-2016  87.29  93.48  94.91  96.70  95.36  94.68
Dec-2016 101.81 107.28 114.50 114.38 112.67 147.86
Jan-2017  79.07  75.25  77.31  80.97  86.60  55.87
Feb-2017  94.64  86.38  90.59  88.83  86.42  74.39
Mar-2017 116.58 114.95 109.27 113.62 107.64 111.10
Apr-2017 103.82 104.89 100.60  95.47  95.26  88.19
May-2017 114.14 109.89 108.56 101.79 103.16 109.05
Jun-2017 110.38 108.37 106.24 103.19 104.81 124.56
Jul-2017 100.45 104.58  99.98 102.58  97.82  98.49
Aug-2017 110.41 111.70 111.79 114.42 105.76 111.01
Sep-2017  96.55  98.28  98.48 100.28  98.35  97.12
Oct-2017  86.57  87.46  90.02  91.10 106.35  90.02
Nov-2017  88.40  94.39  97.44  97.65  95.91  97.27
Dec-2017  98.14 103.53 109.04 109.64 108.81 141.10
Jan-2018  80.43  76.54  79.76  82.59  90.18  58.76
Feb-2018  94.39  86.14  90.57  88.61  86.39  74.61
Mar-2018 120.28 118.48 111.59 117.23 104.32 106.55
Apr-2018  98.00  99.77  95.51  90.49  97.89  90.82
May-2018 118.72 114.17 113.88 106.03 102.38 110.05
Jun-2018 112.40 110.51 106.50 104.69 102.35 118.28
Jul-2018  97.78 101.55  97.08 100.10  99.84  99.99
Aug-2018 109.44 111.35 110.18 114.98 105.63 113.50
Sep-2018  95.18  96.16  97.90  96.87  95.95  93.60
Oct-2018  88.54  89.33  92.93  93.39 110.41  94.92
Nov-2018  87.87  94.37  95.21  98.69  94.88  96.75
Dec-2018  98.42 103.36 111.44 108.43 109.89 139.10

Return to top



Last update: August 2, 2016