Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Domestic Auto and Truck Production

Seasonal factors for auto and truck production have been reestimated using final production data through February 2012 and manufacturers' assembly plans through June 2012; they also reflect the holiday schedule in place from the new domestic autoworkers' agreement signed in the 3rd quarter of 2011. Factors have been revised back to January 2007 and extended through December 2012.

Monthly figures for motor vehicle assemblies in millions of units at an annual rate are published in Table 3 of the G.17 release. The formula for seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of auto and truck production (in millions of units) for each month is

    
       SAAR = ((NSA data in units/1,000,000) * 12)/(SF * .01).

The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) data are obtained from Ward's Communications, and the seasonal factors (SF), which contain adjustments for holiday and length-of-month effects as well as normal seasonal variation, are shown in the table below under "Regular Seasonal Factors."

The table below also shows a set of seasonal factors on a weekday average basis in the columns under "Weekday-basis Seasonal Factors"; the number of production days in a month, or weekdays, is shown separately. Using this information, the formula for seasonally adjusted annual rates of auto and truck production (in millions of units) for each month is

    
       SAAR = ((NSA data in units/1,000,000) * 260)/(weekdays * SFW * .01).

Multiplying by 260, the average number of weekdays in a year, converts the weekday average production to an annual production rate. This formula reduces to

    
       SAAR = (NSA data in units * .026) / (weekdays * SFW).

A comma-delimited text file containing these seasonal factors is available for download here.

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Domestic Auto and Truck Production

	Regular Seasonal Factors			Weekday-basis Seasonal Factors
	Autos	Total Trucks	Light Trucks	Autos	Total Trucks	Light Trucks	Weekdays
Jan-1998	89.68	89.71	89.99	88.32	88.35	88.63	22
Feb-1998	99.57	101.25	101.53	107.87	109.69	109.99	20
Mar-1998	113.55	114.34	114.62	111.83	112.61	112.88	22
Apr-1998	105.41	106.46	106.32	103.81	104.84	104.71	22
May-1998	105.15	105.39	105.56	108.48	108.73	108.92	21
Jun-1998	102.70	101.53	101.32	101.15	99.99	99.79	22
Jul-1998	74.24	67.78	66.23	69.94	63.86	62.39	23
Aug-1998	99.62	95.41	95.11	102.78	98.44	98.13	21
Sep-1998	104.04	110.29	110.77	102.46	108.61	109.09	22
Oct-1998	112.53	113.29	113.41	110.82	111.57	111.69	22
Nov-1998	93.96	93.48	93.77	96.94	96.44	96.75	21
Dec-1998	88.57	89.47	89.50	83.44	84.28	84.31	23
Jan-1999	89.82	89.60	89.95	92.67	92.44	92.80	21
Feb-1999	99.37	101.16	101.44	107.65	109.59	109.90	20
Mar-1999	118.59	119.54	119.83	111.71	112.61	112.89	23
Apr-1999	105.14	106.22	106.09	103.55	104.61	104.48	22
May-1999	104.81	105.12	105.25	108.14	108.45	108.59	21
Jun-1999	112.87	108.01	107.50	111.16	106.38	105.87	22
Jul-1999	63.77	61.58	60.30	62.80	60.64	59.38	22
Aug-1999	105.84	104.65	104.59	104.23	103.06	103.00	22
Sep-1999	105.11	107.02	107.29	103.51	105.40	105.67	22
Oct-1999	106.87	107.73	107.87	110.26	111.15	111.29	21
Nov-1999	99.80	99.20	99.53	98.29	97.70	98.03	22
Dec-1999	87.96	89.44	89.50	82.86	84.25	84.31	23
Jan-2000	94.47	93.95	94.16	97.47	96.94	97.15	21
Feb-2000	104.57	106.14	106.45	107.89	109.51	109.83	21
Mar-2000	118.36	119.75	120.08	111.50	112.81	113.12	23
Apr-2000	94.42	95.05	94.97	102.29	102.97	102.89	20
May-2000	109.45	110.32	110.48	103.10	103.92	104.07	23
Jun-2000	112.27	110.76	110.49	110.57	109.08	108.81	22
Jul-2000	62.32	60.76	59.63	64.30	62.69	61.52	21
Aug-2000	111.31	109.52	109.58	104.86	103.17	103.23	23
Sep-2000	100.80	98.58	98.61	104.00	101.71	101.74	21
Oct-2000	111.51	113.10	113.20	109.82	111.39	111.49	22
Nov-2000	99.61	99.19	99.45	98.10	97.69	97.95	22
Dec-2000	82.13	84.11	84.20	84.73	86.78	86.88	21
Jan-2001	99.46	98.17	98.33	93.70	92.48	92.63	23
Feb-2001	99.57	100.88	101.16	107.87	109.28	109.59	20
Mar-2001	112.85	114.55	114.89	111.14	112.81	113.15	22
Apr-2001	99.60	100.03	99.95	102.76	103.20	103.12	21
May-2001	114.21	115.67	115.82	107.59	108.97	109.11	23
Jun-2001	106.79	105.54	105.31	110.18	108.90	108.65	21
Jul-2001	62.88	60.97	59.56	61.93	60.04	58.66	22
Aug-2001	113.03	110.85	110.99	106.48	104.42	104.56	23
Sep-2001	98.31	96.16	96.34	106.51	104.17	104.37	20
Oct-2001	116.33	118.26	118.36	109.58	111.40	111.50	23
Nov-2001	99.53	99.36	99.62	98.02	97.85	98.11	22
Dec-2001	76.69	78.70	78.81	79.12	81.19	81.31	21
Jan-2002	100.06	97.64	97.72	94.26	91.98	92.06	23
Feb-2002	99.45	100.43	100.70	107.74	108.80	109.09	20
Mar-2002	102.04	103.62	103.92	105.28	106.91	107.22	21
Apr-2002	109.39	109.77	109.64	107.73	108.11	107.98	22
May-2002	113.09	115.05	115.15	106.54	108.38	108.48	23
Jun-2002	101.16	100.78	100.60	109.59	109.18	108.98	20
Jul-2002	70.83	66.03	64.65	66.73	62.20	60.90	23
Aug-2002	103.88	103.85	103.99	102.30	102.28	102.41	22
Sep-2002	102.09	101.37	101.56	105.33	104.59	104.78	21
Oct-2002	116.81	118.23	118.34	110.04	111.37	111.48	23
Nov-2002	89.81	89.33	89.61	92.66	92.16	92.46	21
Dec-2002	76.88	78.62	78.71	75.71	77.43	77.52	22
Jan-2003	100.34	97.05	97.08	94.52	91.42	91.45	23
Feb-2003	99.41	100.30	100.56	107.69	108.65	108.94	20
Mar-2003	106.94	108.53	108.83	110.34	111.98	112.28	21
Apr-2003	103.59	104.29	104.16	102.02	102.71	102.59	22
May-2003	107.03	109.49	109.60	105.41	107.83	107.94	22
Jun-2003	102.41	102.63	102.53	105.66	105.89	105.78	21
Jul-2003	74.38	68.12	66.78	70.07	64.17	62.91	23
Aug-2003	103.18	101.73	101.95	106.46	104.96	105.18	21
Sep-2003	103.75	105.42	105.52	102.18	103.82	103.92	22
Oct-2003	116.97	117.58	117.71	110.19	110.76	110.89	23
Nov-2003	91.33	91.11	91.39	98.94	98.70	99.00	20
Dec-2003	87.14	89.46	89.48	82.09	84.27	84.29	23
Jan-2004	92.46	88.76	88.70	91.06	87.42	87.36	22
Feb-2004	99.53	100.08	100.30	107.83	108.43	108.66	20
Mar-2004	116.86	118.50	118.79	110.09	111.63	111.90	23
Apr-2004	104.12	105.34	105.25	102.54	103.74	103.65	22
May-2004	98.92	102.09	102.24	102.06	105.33	105.49	21
Jun-2004	110.41	111.76	111.75	108.74	110.07	110.05	22
Jul-2004	70.08	64.81	63.50	69.02	63.83	62.54	22
Aug-2004	107.21	104.97	105.14	105.59	103.38	103.55	22
Sep-2004	107.61	108.70	109.01	105.98	107.05	107.36	22
Oct-2004	107.23	106.63	106.69	110.63	110.01	110.07	21
Nov-2004	98.40	98.27	98.62	96.91	96.78	97.12	22
Dec-2004	87.32	89.62	89.55	82.26	84.42	84.36	23
Jan-2005	97.50	93.22	93.05	100.60	96.18	96.01	21
Feb-2005	99.81	99.87	100.03	108.12	108.19	108.37	20
Mar-2005	107.87	109.40	109.63	101.62	103.06	103.28	23
Apr-2005	106.37	108.12	108.07	109.75	111.55	111.50	21
May-2005	102.71	106.88	107.10	101.16	105.26	105.48	22
Jun-2005	109.48	112.39	112.51	107.82	110.69	110.80	22
Jul-2005	65.91	61.47	60.20	68.00	63.42	62.11	21
Aug-2005	115.22	112.15	112.53	108.54	105.65	106.01	23
Sep-2005	107.27	107.48	107.75	105.64	105.85	106.12	22
Oct-2005	108.10	106.42	106.42	111.53	109.80	109.79	21
Nov-2005	94.95	94.64	94.99	93.51	93.21	93.55	22
Dec-2005	87.32	89.45	89.28	86.00	88.09	87.93	22
Jan-2006	97.51	93.28	93.00	96.04	91.87	91.60	22
Feb-2006	99.81	99.67	99.76	108.13	107.98	108.08	20
Mar-2006	115.93	117.77	118.00	109.21	110.94	111.16	23
Apr-2006	91.70	93.38	93.38	99.34	101.16	101.16	20
May-2006	108.36	113.52	113.86	102.08	106.94	107.26	23
Jun-2006	108.48	112.83	113.06	106.83	111.12	111.34	22
Jul-2006	67.94	61.75	60.54	70.10	63.71	62.46	21
Aug-2006	115.15	113.73	114.27	108.47	107.14	107.65	23
Sep-2006	102.70	102.50	102.72	105.96	105.75	105.98	21
Oct-2006	114.29	111.54	111.46	112.56	109.85	109.77	22
Nov-2006	98.80	98.11	98.46	97.30	96.63	96.97	22
Dec-2006	82.15	83.88	83.63	84.76	86.55	86.29	21
Jan-2007	103.36	98.29	97.96	97.37	92.59	92.28	23
Feb-2007	101.19	100.48	100.64	109.63	108.85	109.02	20
Mar-2007	111.79	113.63	113.88	110.10	111.91	112.15	22
Apr-2007	96.09	97.60	97.58	99.14	100.70	100.68	21
May-2007	107.16	112.39	112.66	100.95	105.88	106.13	23
Jun-2007	102.03	106.72	106.94	105.27	110.10	110.33	21
Jul-2007	73.69	67.98	66.96	72.57	66.95	65.95	22
Aug-2007	112.54	112.48	112.96	106.01	105.96	106.41	23
Sep-2007	97.05	97.31	97.53	105.13	105.42	105.65	20
Oct-2007	120.37	117.06	116.93	113.39	110.28	110.15	23
Nov-2007	102.43	101.31	101.56	100.88	99.77	100.02	22
Dec-2007	77.06	78.28	77.98	79.50	80.77	80.45	21
Jan-2008	104.14	98.87	98.50	98.10	93.14	92.79	23
Feb-2008	106.52	105.75	105.94	109.90	109.10	109.30	21
Mar-2008	98.55	100.43	100.67	101.68	103.62	103.87	21
Apr-2008	108.38	110.33	110.30	106.74	108.66	108.63	22
May-2008	100.09	105.19	105.44	98.58	103.59	103.85	22
Jun-2008	101.13	106.48	106.74	104.34	109.86	110.13	21
Jul-2008	75.18	71.95	70.97	70.83	67.78	66.85	23
Aug-2008	104.54	101.70	102.14	107.86	104.93	105.38	21
Sep-2008	107.64	108.59	108.91	106.01	106.94	107.26	22
Oct-2008	121.62	117.35	117.18	114.57	110.55	110.39	23
Nov-2008	88.40	87.22	87.39	95.76	94.49	94.68	20
Dec-2008	87.48	88.49	88.05	82.41	83.36	82.94	23
Jan-2009	94.82	90.09	89.74	93.38	88.73	88.38	22
Feb-2009	101.57	100.59	100.78	110.03	108.97	109.18	20
Mar-2009	111.88	114.31	114.59	110.19	112.58	112.85	22
Apr-2009	100.44	102.50	102.49	98.92	100.95	100.94	22
May-2009	94.65	99.65	99.92	97.65	102.82	103.09	21
Jun-2009	105.07	111.34	111.66	103.48	109.66	109.96	22
Jul-2009	77.79	78.50	77.96	73.28	73.95	73.44	23
Aug-2009	103.54	99.53	99.79	106.83	102.69	102.95	21
Sep-2009	106.92	105.65	105.83	105.30	104.05	104.22	22
Oct-2009	117.31	112.17	111.98	115.53	110.47	110.28	22
Nov-2009	97.06	95.58	95.74	100.14	98.62	98.78	21
Dec-2009	87.63	88.35	87.82	82.55	83.23	82.73	23
Jan-2010	95.08	90.61	90.28	98.10	93.48	93.14	21
Feb-2010	101.62	100.49	100.68	110.09	108.87	109.08	20
Mar-2010	116.89	119.72	120.01	110.11	112.78	113.05	23
Apr-2010	101.60	103.99	104.00	100.06	102.41	102.42	22
May-2010	95.57	100.69	100.99	98.60	103.89	104.19	21
Jun-2010	104.43	111.01	111.31	102.85	109.33	109.63	22
Jul-2010	75.18	72.08	71.42	74.04	70.99	70.33	22
Aug-2010	107.96	108.12	108.65	106.33	106.49	107.01	22
Sep-2010	107.80	106.51	106.70	106.17	104.90	105.08	22
Oct-2010	112.80	107.05	106.84	116.38	110.45	110.23	21
Nov-2010	99.12	97.35	97.48	97.61	95.88	96.01	22
Dec-2010	87.59	88.15	87.53	82.51	83.04	82.45	23
Jan-2011	100.09	95.98	95.68	103.27	99.03	98.71	21
Feb-2011	101.81	100.42	100.63	110.29	108.79	109.01	20
Mar-2011	117.00	119.97	120.26	110.21	113.02	113.28	23
Apr-2011	96.05	98.40	98.43	99.10	101.52	101.55	21
May-2011	100.05	105.45	105.77	98.53	103.85	104.17	22
Jun-2011	103.62	110.45	110.72	102.05	108.78	109.04	22
Jul-2011	71.56	72.55	72.17	73.83	74.85	74.46	21
Aug-2011	114.76	110.52	110.92	108.11	104.11	104.49	23
Sep-2011	106.89	105.65	105.79	105.27	104.04	104.19	22
Oct-2011	113.52	107.35	107.14	117.12	110.76	110.54	21
Nov-2011	102.43	100.31	100.41	100.88	98.79	98.89	22
Dec-2011	87.33	87.79	87.09	86.01	86.46	85.77	22
Jan-2012	100.08	96.83	96.56	98.56	95.36	95.10	22
Feb-2012	107.23	105.36	105.57	110.63	108.70	108.92	21
Mar-2012	111.87	115.09	115.38	110.18	113.34	113.64	22
Apr-2012	95.67	97.81	97.88	98.71	100.92	100.99	21
May-2012	104.84	110.10	110.45	98.77	103.72	104.04	23
Jun-2012	98.33	104.79	104.99	101.45	108.12	108.32	21
Jul-2012	73.17	74.88	74.40	72.06	73.74	73.27	22
Aug-2012	116.44	109.96	110.33	109.69	103.59	103.94	23
Sep-2012	97.51	98.28	98.60	105.64	106.47	106.81	20
Oct-2012	124.88	118.06	117.82	117.64	111.22	110.99	23
Nov-2012	99.09	96.51	96.56	97.59	95.05	95.10	22
Dec-2012	76.71	76.93	76.26	79.14	79.37	78.69	21

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