Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)

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March 2019

Duration dependence, monetary policy asymmetries, and the business cycle

Travis J. Berge and Damjan Pfajfar

Abstract:

We produce business cycle chronologies for U.S. states and evaluate the factors that change the probability of moving from one phase to another. We find strong evidence for positive duration dependence in all business cycle phases but find that the effect is modest relative to other state- and national-level factors. Monetary policy shocks also have a strong influence on the transition probabilities in a highly asymmetric way. The effect of policy shocks depends on the current state of the cycle as well as the sign and size of the shock.

Accessible materials (.zip)

Keywords: Duration analysis, business cycles, hazard rates, monetary policy asymmetries

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.020

PDF: Full Paper

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Last Update: January 09, 2020