Photo of Michele Modugno

Michele Modugno

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, Université libre de Bruxelles, 2011
Current Research Topics
  • Macroeconomic news and asset prices
  • Chief, Financial and Macroeconomic Stability Studies

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2021 - present
  • Principal Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2016 - 2021
  • Senior Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2015 - 2016
  • Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2013 - 2015
  • Chief Economist

    Now-Casting Economics Limited

    2011 - 2013
  • Postdoctoral researcher

    Universite' libre de Bruxelles

    2011 - 2013
  • Economist

    European Central Bank

    2007 - 2011
  • Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance
    Elena Afanasyeva, Sam Jerow, Seung Jung Lee, and Michele Modugno
    Journal of Financial Stability (Forthcoming)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100839
  • Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
    Michiel De Pooter, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu
    Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102323
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2020)
  • Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model
    Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Thiago RT Ferreira, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
    International Finance Discussion Papers (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2021.1313
  • Macroeconomic News and Stock Prices Over the FOMC Cycle
    Jack McCoy, Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, and Steve Sharpe
    FEDS Notes (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2745
  • Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
    David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno
    International Journal of Central Banking (2020)
  • The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Narrative Investigation
    Elena Afanasyeva, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino
    FEDS Notes (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2253
  • The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Quantitative Exploration
    Elena Afanasyeva, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino
    FEDS Notes (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2254
  • Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
    Carlo Altavilla, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
    Journal of Monetary Economics (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.08.004
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2014)
  • A Now-Casting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?
    Daniela Bragoli and Michele Modugno
    International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.002
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2016)
  • A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area
    Antonello D'Agostino, Michele Modugno, and Chiara Osbat
    International Journal of Central Banking (2017)
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2015)
  • Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition
    Michele Modugno, Baris Soybilgen, and Ege Yazgan
    International Journal of Forecasting (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.07.001
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2016)
  • Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
    David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.055
  • Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve
    Laura Coroneo, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1052456
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2014)
  • Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
    Antonello D'Agostino, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, and Michele Modugno
    Dynamic Factor Models (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-905320150000035014
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2015)
  • The Importance of Updating: Evidence from a Brazilian Nowcasting Model
    Daniela Bragoli, Luca Metelli, and Michele Modugno
    Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (2015)
    https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl958gmp
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2014)
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Factor Models on Data Sets with Arbitrary Pattern of Missing Data
    Marta Banbura and Michele Modugno
    Journal of Applied Econometrics (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2306
  • Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow
    Marta Banbura, Domenico Giannone, Michele Modugno, and Lucrezia Reichlin
    Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol. 2 (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53683-9.00004-9
  • Now-Casting Inflation Using High Frequency Data
    Michele Modugno
    International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.12.003
  • An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area
    Domenico Giannone, Jerome Henry, Magdalena Lalik, and Michele Modugno
    Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
    https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00317
  • The Forecasting Power of International Yield Curve Linkages
    Michele Modugno and Kleopatra Nikolaou
    Working paper series (European Central Bank) (2009)
  • conference

    December 2021

    University of Bordeaux/webinar

    The Information Content of Stress Tests Announcements

  • seminar

    November 2020

    Queen Mary University of London/webinar

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    September 2020

    Universita' Ca' Foscari Venezia/webinar

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    June 2020

    Universita di Napoli Federico II/webinar

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • conference

    June 2019

    Asset Pricing Workshop 2019/York

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    February 2019

    Banco de la República/Bogota

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    February 2019

    Banco de la República/Bogota

    Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice

  • seminar

    June 2018

    Kiel Summer School on Economic Policy/Kiel

    Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice

  • discussion

    October 2017

    ECB conference on Credit, Banking and Monetary Policy/Frankfurt am Main

    Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect, by G. K. Can, R. S. Gurkaynak, and S. S. Lee

  • seminar

    September 2017

    CEMLA-IMF workshop

    Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice

  • seminar

    September 2017

    Banco de Mexico/Mexico City

    Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission

  • seminar

    June 2017

    Otaru University of Commerce/Otaru

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    May 2017

    University of Tokyo/Tokyo

    Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission

  • seminar

    May 2017

    Keio University/Tokyo

    Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission

  • conference

    November 2016

    System Committee Meeting on Financial Structure and Regulation/San Francisco

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    June 2016

    IAAE2016/Milan

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    June 2016

    ISF2016/Santander

    A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?

  • seminar

    June 2014

    Bank of England/London

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    May 2016

    System Macro Meeting/Nashville

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    May 2016

    System Macro Meeting/Nashville

    A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?

  • seminar

    April 2016

    Norges Bank/Oslo

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    April 2016

    First annual ECB Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference/Frankfurt

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • seminar

    October 2015

    University of Padova

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • seminar

    October 2015

    University College of London

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    October 2015

    LUISS University/Rome

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    October 2015

    Queen Mary University of London

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • conference

    August 2015

    2015 World Congress of the Econometric Society/Montreal

    Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve

  • conference

    June 2015

    ISF2015/Riverside

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • conference

    June 2015

    ISF2015/Riverside

    Nowcasting China

  • seminar

    June 2015

    Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Ispra

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • seminar

    June 2015

    Banque de France/Paris

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    June 2015

    Bank of Finland/Helsinki

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • conference

    May 2015

    8th Nordic Econometric Meeting/Helsinki

    Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve

  • conference

    December 2014

    8th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics/Pisa

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    December 2014

    Bocconi University/Milan

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • conference

    May 2014

    Macroeconomics & Econometrics conference, University of Birmingham

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    May 2014

    University of York

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    May 2014

    Universite' libre de Bruxelles

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • discussion

    April 2014

    Macro System Meeting/Kansas City

    Now-casting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation, by E. Knotek and S. Zaman

  • conference

    April 2014

    22nd Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics/New York

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

Awards
  • 2019

    AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH COUNCIL

    ARC Discovery Project 2019

Conference Organization
  • 17-18 December 2019 | Melbourne

    Advances in Applied Macro-Finance

    Organizer

  • 3-4 December 2018 | Istanbul

    Advances in Applied Macro-Finance

    Organizer

  • 1-2 September 2014 | Istanbul

    Advances in Applied Macro-Finance and Forecasting

    Organizer

Referee
  • American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
  • Economic Journal
  • Economic Letters
  • Economic Modelling
  • Empirical Economics
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • Journal of Applied Econometrics
  • Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
  • Journal of Forecasting
  • Journal of Monetary Economics
  • Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
  • Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
  • The Review of Economics and Statistics
Last update: June 30, 2022