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Photo of Michele Modugno

Michele Modugno

Principal Economist Financial and Macroeconomic Stability Studies Section Financial Stability
202-452-3152
michele.modugno@frb.gov

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, Universite' libre de Bruxelles, 2011
Current Research Topics
  • Macroeconomic news and asset prices
  • Principal Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2016 - present
  • Senior Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2015 - 2016
  • Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2013 - 2015
  • Chief Economist

    Now-Casting Economics Limited

    2011 - 2013
  • Postdoctoral researcher

    Universite' libre de Bruxelles

    2011 - 2013
  • Economist

    European Central Bank

    2007 - 2011
  • Afanasyeva, Elena, Sam Jerow, Seung Jung Lee, and Michele Modugno (forthcoming). "Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance," Journal of Financial Stability.
  • McCoy, Jack, Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, and Steve Sharpe (2020). "Macroeconomic News and Stock Prices Over the FOMC Cycle," FEDS Notes 2020-10-14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • De Pooter, Michiel, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu (2021). "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 112 (April).
  • De Pooter, Michiel, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu (2020). "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-032. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Afanasyeva, Elena, Sam Jerow, Seung Jung Lee, and Michele Modugno (2020). "Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-028. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Aikman, David, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno (2020). "Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 141-180.
  • Altavilla, Carlo, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno (2017). "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 92, pp. 31-46.
  • Bragoli, Daniela, and Michele Modugno (2017). "A Now-Casting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?" International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 786–800.
  • D'Agostino, Antonello, Michele Modugno, and Chiara Osbat (2017). "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 1-34.
  • Modugno, Michele, Baris Soybilgen, and Ege Yazgan (2016). "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 1369-1384.
  • D'Agostino, Antonello, Domenico Giannone , Michele Lenza, and Michele Modugno (2016). "Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," in Eric Hillebrand , Siem Jan Koopman (ed.) Dynamic Factor Models (Advances in Econometrics, Volume 35) Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp. 569 - 594.
  • Coroneo, Laura, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno (2016). "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 472-485.
  • Bragoli, Daniela, Luca Metelli, and Michele Modugno (2015). "The Importance of Updating: Evidence from a Brazilian Nowcasting Model," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, vol. 2015, no. 1, pp. 5-22.
  • Banbura, Marta, and Michele Modugno (2014). "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Factor Models on Data Sets with Arbitrary Pattern of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 133-160.
  • Banbura, Marta, Domenico Giannone, Michele Modugno, and Lucrezia Reichlin (2013). "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," in Elliott, Graham, Allan Timmermann eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 2. North Holland: Elsevier, pp. 195-237.
  • Modugno, Michele (2013). "Now-Casting Inflation using High Frequency Data," International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 664-675.
  • Giannone, Domenico, Jerome Henry, Magdalena Lalik, and Michele Modugno (2012). "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 94, no. 4, pp. 1000-1013.
  • De Pooter, Michiel, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu (2018). "Monetary Policy Surprises and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," FEDS Notes 2018-05-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Afanasyeva, Elena, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino (2018). "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Quantitative Exploration," FEDS Notes 2018-10-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Afanasyeva, Elena, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino (2018). "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Narrative Investigation," FEDS Notes 2018-10-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Aikman, David, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno (2016). "Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Modugno, Michele, and Kleopatra Nikolaou (2009). "The Forecasting Power of International Yield Curve Linkages," Working Paper Series 1044. European Central Bank.

  • seminar

    November 2020

    Queen Mary University of London/webinar

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    September 2020

    Universita' Ca' Foscari Venezia/webinar

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    June 2020

    Universita di Napoli Federico II/webinar

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • conference

    June 2019

    Asset Pricing Workshop 2019/York

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    February 2019

    Banco de la República/Bogota

    Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises

  • seminar

    February 2019

    Banco de la República/Bogota

    Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice

  • seminar

    June 2018

    Kiel Summer School on Economic Policy/Kiel

    Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice

  • discussion

    October 2017

    ECB conference on Credit, Banking and Monetary Policy/Frankfurt am Main

    Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect, by G. K. Can, R. S. Gurkaynak, and S. S. Lee

  • seminar

    September 2017

    CEMLA-IMF workshop

    Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice

  • seminar

    September 2017

    Banco de Mexico/Mexico City

    Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission

  • seminar

    June 2017

    Otaru University of Commerce/Otaru

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    May 2017

    University of Tokyo/Tokyo

    Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission

  • seminar

    May 2017

    Keio University/Tokyo

    Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission

  • conference

    November 2016

    System Committee Meeting on Financial Structure and Regulation/San Francisco

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    June 2016

    IAAE2016/Milan

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    June 2016

    ISF2016/Santander

    A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?

  • seminar

    June 2014

    Bank of England/London

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    May 2016

    System Macro Meeting/Nashville

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    May 2016

    System Macro Meeting/Nashville

    A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?

  • seminar

    April 2016

    Norges Bank/Oslo

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    April 2016

    First annual ECB Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference/Frankfurt

    Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy

  • seminar

    October 2015

    University of Padova

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • seminar

    October 2015

    University College of London

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    October 2015

    LUISS University/Rome

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    October 2015

    Queen Mary University of London

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • conference

    August 2015

    2015 World Congress of the Econometric Society/Montreal

    Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve

  • conference

    June 2015

    ISF2015/Riverside

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • conference

    June 2015

    ISF2015/Riverside

    Nowcasting China

  • seminar

    June 2015

    Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Ispra

    Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models

  • seminar

    June 2015

    Banque de France/Paris

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    June 2015

    Bank of Finland/Helsinki

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • conference

    May 2015

    8th Nordic Econometric Meeting/Helsinki

    Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve

  • conference

    December 2014

    8th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics/Pisa

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    December 2014

    Bocconi University/Milan

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • conference

    May 2014

    Macroeconomics & Econometrics conference, University of Birmingham

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    May 2014

    University of York

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • seminar

    May 2014

    Universite' libre de Bruxelles

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

  • discussion

    April 2014

    Macro System Meeting/Kansas City

    Now-casting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation, by E. Knotek and S. Zaman

  • conference

    April 2014

    22nd Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics/New York

    Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

Awards
  • 2019

    AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH COUNCIL

    ARC Discovery Project 2019

Conference Organization

  • 17-18 December 2019 | Melbourne

    Advances in Applied Macro-Finance

    Organizer

  • 3-4 December 2018 | Istanbul

    Advances in Applied Macro-Finance

    Organizer

  • 1-2 September 2014 | Istanbul

    Advances in Applied Macro-Finance and Forecasting

    Organizer

Referee
  • American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
  • Economic Journal
  • Economic Letters
  • Economic Modelling
  • Empirical Economics
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • Journal of Applied Econometrics
  • Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
  • Journal of Forecasting
  • Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
  • Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
  • The Review of Economics and Statistics
Last update: January 19, 2021