Meet the Economists
Michele Modugno
michele.modugno@frb.gov
Education
- Ph.D., Economics, Universite' libre de Bruxelles, 2011
- Macroeconomic news and asset prices
Chief, Financial and Macroeconomic Stability Studies
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2021 - presentPrincipal Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2016 - 2021Senior Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2015 - 2016Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2013 - 2015Chief Economist
Now-Casting Economics Limited
2011 - 2013Postdoctoral researcher
Universite' libre de Bruxelles
2011 - 2013Economist
European Central Bank
2007 - 2011
- Afanasyeva, Elena, Sam Jerow, Seung Jung Lee, and Michele Modugno (forthcoming). "Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance," Journal of Financial Stability.
- De Pooter, Michiel, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu (2021). "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 112 (April).
- Aikman, David, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno (2020). "Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 141-180.
- Altavilla, Carlo, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno (2017). "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 92, pp. 31-46.
- Bragoli, Daniela, and Michele Modugno (2017). "A Now-Casting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?" International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 786–800.
- D'Agostino, Antonello, Michele Modugno, and Chiara Osbat (2017). "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 1-34.
- Modugno, Michele, Baris Soybilgen, and Ege Yazgan (2016). "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 1369-1384.
- D'Agostino, Antonello, Domenico Giannone , Michele Lenza, and Michele Modugno (2016). "Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," in Eric Hillebrand , Siem Jan Koopman (ed.) Dynamic Factor Models (Advances in Econometrics, Volume 35) Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp. 569 - 594.
- Coroneo, Laura, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno (2016). "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 472-485.
- Bragoli, Daniela, Luca Metelli, and Michele Modugno (2015). "The Importance of Updating: Evidence from a Brazilian Nowcasting Model," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, vol. 2015, no. 1, pp. 5-22.
- Banbura, Marta, and Michele Modugno (2014). "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Factor Models on Data Sets with Arbitrary Pattern of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 133-160.
- Banbura, Marta, Domenico Giannone, Michele Modugno, and Lucrezia Reichlin (2013). "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," in Elliott, Graham, Allan Timmermann eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 2. North Holland: Elsevier, pp. 195-237.
- Modugno, Michele (2013). "Now-Casting Inflation using High Frequency Data," International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 664-675.
- Giannone, Domenico, Jerome Henry, Magdalena Lalik, and Michele Modugno (2012). "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 94, no. 4, pp. 1000-1013.
- McCoy, Jack, Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, and Steve Sharpe (2020). "Macroeconomic News and Stock Prices Over the FOMC Cycle," FEDS Notes 2020-10-14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- De Pooter, Michiel, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu (2018). "Monetary Policy Surprises and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," FEDS Notes 2018-05-18. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Afanasyeva, Elena, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino (2018). "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Quantitative Exploration," FEDS Notes 2018-10-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Afanasyeva, Elena, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino (2018). "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Narrative Investigation," FEDS Notes 2018-10-12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Aikman, David, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno (2016). "Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Modugno, Michele, and Kleopatra Nikolaou (2009). "The Forecasting Power of International Yield Curve Linkages," Working Paper Series 1044. European Central Bank.
seminar
November 2020Queen Mary University of London/webinar
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
September 2020Universita' Ca' Foscari Venezia/webinar
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
June 2020Universita di Napoli Federico II/webinar
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
conference
June 2019Asset Pricing Workshop 2019/York
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
February 2019Banco de la República/Bogota
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
February 2019Banco de la República/Bogota
Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice
seminar
June 2018Kiel Summer School on Economic Policy/Kiel
Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice
discussion
October 2017ECB conference on Credit, Banking and Monetary Policy/Frankfurt am Main
Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect, by G. K. Can, R. S. Gurkaynak, and S. S. Lee
seminar
September 2017CEMLA-IMF workshop
Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice
seminar
September 2017Banco de Mexico/Mexico City
Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
seminar
June 2017Otaru University of Commerce/Otaru
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
May 2017University of Tokyo/Tokyo
Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
seminar
May 2017Keio University/Tokyo
Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
conference
November 2016System Committee Meeting on Financial Structure and Regulation/San Francisco
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
June 2016IAAE2016/Milan
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
June 2016ISF2016/Santander
A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?
seminar
June 2014Bank of England/London
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
May 2016System Macro Meeting/Nashville
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
May 2016System Macro Meeting/Nashville
A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?
seminar
April 2016Norges Bank/Oslo
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
April 2016First annual ECB Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference/Frankfurt
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
seminar
October 2015University of Padova
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
seminar
October 2015University College of London
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
October 2015LUISS University/Rome
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
October 2015Queen Mary University of London
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
conference
August 20152015 World Congress of the Econometric Society/Montreal
Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve
conference
June 2015ISF2015/Riverside
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
conference
June 2015ISF2015/Riverside
Nowcasting China
seminar
June 2015Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Ispra
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
seminar
June 2015Banque de France/Paris
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
June 2015Bank of Finland/Helsinki
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
conference
May 20158th Nordic Econometric Meeting/Helsinki
Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve
conference
December 20148th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics/Pisa
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
December 2014Bocconi University/Milan
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
conference
May 2014Macroeconomics & Econometrics conference, University of Birmingham
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
May 2014University of York
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
May 2014Universite' libre de Bruxelles
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
discussion
April 2014Macro System Meeting/Kansas City
Now-casting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation, by E. Knotek and S. Zaman
conference
April 201422nd Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics/New York
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
Awards
- 2019
AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH COUNCIL
ARC Discovery Project 2019
Conference Organization
17-18 December 2019 | Melbourne
Advances in Applied Macro-Finance
Organizer
3-4 December 2018 | Istanbul
Advances in Applied Macro-Finance
Organizer
1-2 September 2014 | Istanbul
Advances in Applied Macro-Finance and Forecasting
Organizer
Referee
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- Economic Journal
- Economic Letters
- Economic Modelling
- Empirical Economics
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
- Journal of Forecasting
- Journal of Monetary Economics
- Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
- Macroeconomic Dynamics
- Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
- The Review of Economics and Statistics