International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP)
December 2023
Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Matteo Luciani, and Michele Modugno
Abstract:
In economics, we need to forecast the present because reliable and comprehensive measures of the state of the economy are released with a substantial delay and considerable measurement error. Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early estimates of the state of the economy and updates these estimates continuously as new macroeconomic data are released. In this chapter, we describe how the framework used to nowcast GDP has evolved and is applied worldwide.
Keywords: Dynamic factor model, forecasting, nowcasting
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2023.1385
PDF: Full Paper
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