December 2023

Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Matteo Luciani, and Michele Modugno

Abstract:

In economics, we need to forecast the present because reliable and comprehensive measures of the state of the economy are released with a substantial delay and considerable measurement error. Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early estimates of the state of the economy and updates these estimates continuously as new macroeconomic data are released. In this chapter, we describe how the framework used to nowcast GDP has evolved and is applied worldwide.

Keywords: Dynamic factor model, forecasting, nowcasting

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2023.1385

PDF: Full Paper

Related Materials: Accessible materials (.zip)

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