Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. Import Price Statistics: Unit Values vs. Price Indexes

This figure is titled “Import Price Statistics: Unit Values vs. Price Indexes” and contains two line-chart panels, titled “Import unit values” (left) and “Price indexes” (right). In both panels the x axis ranges from 2019 to mid-2026 in years, and the series are indexed so that the fourth quarter of 2024 equals 100; a thin gray dotted vertical line marks April 2025, when tariffs on finished vehicle imports were introduced. The left panel has a Y axis ranging from about 60 to 110 and charts import unit values for five trading partners: Canada (solid green line), Mexico (dashed red line), Japan (navy dotted line), South Korea (blue dash-dotted line), and the European Union (purple short-dashed line). All five series are highly volatile and move broadly together. They start around 70 to 80 in 2019, rise unevenly through 2020–2022, and reach their highest levels—about 100 to 110—around 2023 and again in early 2025. After peaking in early 2025 they turn down sharply, ending around 80 to low 90s in 2026. The right panel has a Y axis ranging from 85 to 105 and charts official import price indexes: Aggregate (black solid line), Industrialized Countries (green dashed line), Pacific Rim (blue short-dashed line), Mexico (red dash-dotted line), and the European Union (purple dotted line). These series are much smoother than the unit values, rising steadily from about 90 to 94 in 2019–2021 up to roughly 100 by early 2025. After 2025 they diverge: the Pacific Rim series rises a little further before easing back, while Mexico stays close to 97–100, and the Aggregate, Industrialized Countries, and European Union series fall further, with the European Union dropping the most before leveling off. Comparing the two panels, the unit-value measures are far more volatile and swing over a much wider range than the corresponding official price indexes, which move gradually and within a narrower band even after the 2025 divergence.

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Figure 2. Wards Data Closely Tracks Census Unit Imports of Light Vehicles

This is a line chart titled “Wards Data Closely Tracks Census Unit Imports of Light Vehicles.” The x axis ranges from 2020 to mid-2026 in years. The Y axis, labeled “Thousands of units,” ranges from about 200 to 800. The data are monthly, and a thin gray dotted vertical line marks April 2025, when tariffs on finished vehicle imports were introduced. There are two variables charted on the plot: the first, labeled “Census unit imports,” is U.S. unit imports of light vehicles from the U.S. Census Bureau and is designated by a solid black line; the second, labeled “Wards (sales + ΔInv),” is the corresponding estimate constructed from Wards model-level data (monthly sales of imported vehicles plus the change in end-of-month inventories) and is designated by a dashed blue line. The two series track each other very closely throughout. Both plunge sharply in early 2020—falling to a low near 175,000 units at the onset of the pandemic—then rebound quickly to about 700,000 units by late 2020. Through 2021 imports are choppy, dipping to around 400,000 units in the second half of 2021, before trending gradually higher over 2022 to 2024, fluctuating around 600,000 to 700,000 units, with a sharp one-month spike to nearly 780,000 units in early 2025. The series remain volatile through 2025 and into 2026, ending a little above 600,000 units. Across the full sample the Census and Wards measures move in near-lockstep, with only small month-to-month differences, demonstrating that the Wards data closely proxies official Census unit imports.

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Figure 3. Unit Values vs. Average Prices

This figure is titled “Unit Values vs. Average Prices” and contains four line-chart panels arranged in a 2×2 grid, one for each trading partner: Japan (top left), South Korea (top right), Mexico (bottom left), and Canada (bottom right). In all four panels the x axis ranges from 2020 to mid-2026 in years, the data are monthly, the series are indexed so that the fourth quarter of 2024 equals 100, and the Y axis ranges from about 70 to 110. Each panel charts two variables: “Import Unit Value,” a solid black line, and “Avg. Price,” a dashed blue line; a legend and the “Index, 2024q4 = 100” label appear only in the Japan panel. In the Japan panel, both series rise together from a little below 80 in 2020 up to about 100 by early 2023, tracking each other closely. From 2023 through mid-2024 the import unit value runs somewhat above the average price, peaking near 107 in mid-2024, before both series pull back toward 98–100 by late 2024. In 2025 they diverge sharply: the average price continues rising to about 104–107 by 2026, while the import unit value plunges to a low near 83 in late 2025 before recovering only partially to mid-90s. In the South Korea panel, both series rise from the mid-70s in 2020 to around 95–100 by 2022, tracking closely through 2023–2024 with the import unit value making sharper swings, including a spike to nearly 110 in late 2023. After 2024 the two series diverge, with the average price settling around 94–97 and the import unit value dropping further, to about 85–88 by 2026. In the Mexico panel, the two series track especially closely for most of the sample, both rising from low 80s in 2020 to around 100 by late 2022 and continuing upward together through 2023–2024, with the average price running slightly above the import unit value for much of this period. After 2024 they diverge: the average price climbs to a peak near 105 in early 2026, while the import unit value declines to a low near 85 in late 2025 before recovering to about 93 by 2026. In the Canada panel, the average price runs above the import unit value for most of the sample, with both rising unevenly from the high 70s/low 80s in 2020 to around 100 by 2023–2024. In early 2025 the import unit value drops abruptly—from about 104 to the high 80s—while the average price continues climbing to a peak near 105 by 2026. Across all four panels, the unit-value and average-price measures move together for most of the period but split apart from 2025 onward, with unit values dropping well below average prices in every case.

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Figure 4. Variable- and Fixed-Composition Average Prices

This figure is titled “Variable- and Fixed-Composition Average Prices” and contains two line-chart panels, one for each trading partner: Japan (left) and South Korea (right). In both panels the x axis ranges from October 2024 to May 2026 in months, the data are monthly, and the series are indexed so that the fourth quarter of 2024 equals 100. Each panel charts three variables: “Import Unit Value,” a solid black line; “Avg. Price,” a light-blue dashed line; and “Avg. Price, Fixed Composition,” a dark-blue short-dashed line; a legend and the “Index, 2024q4 = 100” label appear only in the Japan panel. The Y axis in both panels ranges from about 83 to 107. In the Japan panel, all three series start close together near 100 in late 2024. The import unit value and the average price climb together through early 2025, both reaching about 103 to 104 by February–March 2025, while the fixed-composition average price holds nearly flat, just above 100. From April 2025 the import unit value plunges sharply, falling to a low near 83 by September 2025, before recovering partway to low 90s in early 2026 and ending near 92. The average price, by contrast, stays elevated and volatile after the split, spiking to a peak near 107 in late 2025 before easing back to end around 104, while the fixed-composition line drifts only slightly higher, to about 102, over the same period. In the South Korea panel, the three series again start close together in late 2024. The import unit value and the average price fall together through the first half of 2025, both reaching a trough near 90 to 93 around mid-2025, while the fixed-composition average price is roughly flat, holding just above 100. From around September 2025 the average price rebounds sharply, spiking to about 104 before easing back into the high 90s by 2026, and the fixed-composition line climbs further to a plateau near 103. The import unit value, however, only ticks up briefly before resuming its decline, falling to new lows in the mid-80s and ending near 85. In both panels, the gap between the variable- and fixed-composition average prices reveals compositional effects, and in both cases the import unit value falls further and more persistently than either average-price measure.

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